1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: On Wednesday, we talked about the Israel Hamas war and 2 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: the intense negotiations for the release of more hostages. Meanwhile, 3 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: Russia's war in Ukraine is heading toward another brutal winter 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: with no end in sight. Behind the scenes in Washington, though, 5 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: it's China's military that's increasingly on the minds of leaders 6 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: at the Pentagon and State Department. Of particular concern to 7 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: the US the possibility that China might one day launch 8 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: a military invasion of Taiwan. 9 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 2: China has carried out what it says is a mock 10 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: air blockade of Taiwan using jets carrying live ammunition, in 11 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 2: the latest escalation of tensions in the South China. 12 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: Sea by Bloomberg's Peter Martin reports that despite the billions 13 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: of dollars China has spent building advanced weapons and modernizing 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: its forces, there are doubts at the most senior levels 15 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: of China's military and government that the People's Liberation Army 16 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: is ready for battle. 17 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 3: Skimping has undertaken an extraordinarily wide ranging set of reforms 18 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 3: aims at modernizing the PLA, but there's every sign that 19 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 3: he's dissatisfied with how far the effort has gotten. 20 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: I'm West Kasova today on the big take just how 21 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: mighty is China's military Peter. The world's attention lately has 22 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: been on the war between Israel and Hamas and at 23 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 1: the same time the long ongoing or in Ukraine. Why 24 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: are you taking this deep close look at China's military 25 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: capability now? 26 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 3: Well, I think there are a couple of things. I 27 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 3: think one is that you get the sense when you 28 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 3: talk to senior US officials that they know the long 29 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 3: game is in East Asia. I think the other thing 30 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 3: that emerges from both of those conflicts is that these 31 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 3: things can come out of nowhere. So the war in 32 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 3: the Middle East at the moment was something which took 33 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 3: Israeli intelligence by surprise and took the US government by surprise. 34 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 3: Putin's decision to invade Ukraine is something that the intelligence 35 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 3: agencies did know before, but certainly that the Biden administration 36 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 3: wasn't planning or having to deal with. 37 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: And so, as you say, inside the US military and 38 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: intelligence establishment, this is something that they're concentrating on. 39 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 3: If it was up to them, this is all they 40 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,119 Speaker 3: will concentrate on. So Pentagon leaders walk around saying that 41 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 3: the PLA the People's Liberation Army. China's military is what 42 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 3: they say is the pacing challenge. That phrase is a 43 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 3: little bit sort of stodgy and uncomfortable, but it does 44 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,359 Speaker 3: really relay the sense of urgency that they have about 45 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 3: China's rising threat. I think the issue that worries Pentagon 46 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 3: planners most is a Taiwan scenario, the possibility that China 47 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 3: could at some point try to invade the democratically governed 48 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 3: island of Taiwan. And for Chinese leaders this is their 49 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 3: top priority. They've described this as something that's central to 50 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 3: their plan for national rejuvenation. 51 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: And Pete remind us what is the nature of the 52 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: conflict between China and Taiwan. 53 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 3: So, Taiwan is a democratically governed island of about twenty 54 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 3: million people off the coast of China. It's been ruled 55 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,679 Speaker 3: by parties other than Beijing for most of the last century. 56 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 3: But the Communist Party leadership in China believes very firmly 57 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 3: that it is a breakaway province and should once again 58 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 3: return to the fold of the motherland. 59 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: And of course Taiwan's government is opposed to reuniting. 60 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 3: Yeah very much though and increasingly the Taiwanese public doesn't 61 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 3: want to reunify with China. 62 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: And over the years, we've seen any number of times 63 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: when tension between China and Taiwan, and tension between China 64 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: and the US about Taiwan has risen sharply and then 65 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: fallen in And there seems to be a concern right 66 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: now that it's on the uptick again. 67 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 3: That's exactly right, partly because I think Beijing believes that 68 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 3: their chances of persuading the Taiwan these people that they 69 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 3: should quote unquote return to China is diminishing, and their 70 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 3: confidence in their own military abilities is at the same 71 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:18,919 Speaker 3: time increasing. 72 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: And your story really takes a look at this possibility, 73 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: no matter how remote, at the moment, that China may 74 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: choose to take military action against Taiwan, And which you 75 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 1: look at in the story is how capable is China's military? 76 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: So maybe tell us about China's military capability. 77 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 3: So this is really one of the big unknown questions 78 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 3: when it comes to the US's competition with China. I 79 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 3: don't think anyone doubts that the People's Liberation Army has 80 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 3: made incredible progress over the last two or three decades. 81 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 3: So if you look at the raw numbers, the PLA 82 00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 3: looks almost invincible. China has two million active duty troops 83 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 3: compared to about one point three million in the US. 84 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 3: It has a three hundred and fifty ship navy, giving 85 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 3: it the biggest navy in the world, and it has 86 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 3: the third largest aviation force in the world with about 87 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 3: two eight hundred planes. What's even more concerning from Washington's 88 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 3: perspective is that China's military capability is increasingly modernized. They 89 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 3: have an extraordinarily well equipped rocket force, which is capable 90 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: of taking out US ships and surface vessels. They have 91 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 3: a capable fourth generation aircraft, and they have a space 92 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 3: force and cyber capability which is growing day by day. 93 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 3: The question comes when you look at whether China would 94 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 3: be able to use all of these things together to 95 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 3: achieve something like an amphibious landing on Taiwan or a 96 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 3: peer to peer war with the US. 97 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: But you kind of asked this basic question, is China 98 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: actually prepared to fight? Can they effectively use all of 99 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: these assets if the time came right? 100 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 3: And I think the truth is that they don't know, 101 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 3: and leaders in Washington don't know. The Chinese military hasn't 102 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 3: fought a major conflict since nineteen seventy nine, when it 103 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 3: fought a brief and largely unknown and pretty punishing war 104 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 3: against Vietnam. Since then, most of the officers who took 105 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 3: part in that campaign, or even the junior people, have retired, 106 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 3: which means that virtually no one in the senior ranks 107 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 3: of Chinese military has combat experience. So that's one of 108 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 3: the big worries that kind of gets the Chinese leaders. 109 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: Pete, You right, that the US is conducting wargames where 110 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: they try to imagine various scenarios of how a China 111 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: invasion of Taiwan might play out. What exactly are they 112 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 1: looking at? 113 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 3: They're trying to assess what are the PLA and the 114 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 3: US military's relative strengths and weaknesses. So if China were 115 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 3: to invade, for example, would it be able to land 116 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 3: troops on the beach, would it then be able to 117 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 3: supply them with the logistics that they need for a 118 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 3: sustained campaign on the island. How well would its air 119 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 3: force hold up overhead? How capable would its submarines be 120 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 3: of deterring US involvement. All of these things go together 121 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 3: in an incredibly complex picture which is very very challenging 122 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 3: to pull off. 123 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: And when they're doing these war games, what are the scenarios? 124 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: How do they think China might choose to go about 125 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,119 Speaker 1: taking over Taiwan with military force. 126 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 3: There are a few different scenarios that worry US planners. 127 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,679 Speaker 3: I think the most ambitious effort that China could undertake 128 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 3: would be an amphibious landing on the island, which is 129 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 3: where you use landing vessels kind of like DDA to 130 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 3: put troops ashore and then to push on and conquer 131 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 3: a territory. That's extremely difficult. There are others which fall 132 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 3: short of that, which are in some ways more worrying. 133 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 3: A naval blockade of the island, for example, could be 134 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 3: very very difficult. And then there are scenarios outside of 135 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 3: Taiwan which worry US military leaders. There's the possibility of 136 00:07:58,120 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 3: a clash with the US in the South China Sea, 137 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 3: where China has extremely expansive claims to territory, or that's 138 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 3: the possibility of an unintended clash when interset between two aircraft, 139 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 3: for example, leading to an inadvertent, unintended war. 140 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: And we've seen those sorts of close calls happen over 141 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: the years in the South China Sea. Now we're starting 142 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: to see a rising conflict between China and the US 143 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 1: over the Philippines. 144 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly right. These incidents have been on the rise. 145 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 3: It's something that Pentagon leaders have been warning about publicly 146 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 3: and especially during attention to the fact that the communication 147 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 3: channels between the two militaries are very very weak, which 148 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 3: means that there's the possibility that an inadvertent clash could 149 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,959 Speaker 3: spiral into something much larger at very short notice. 150 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: During the Cold War and even for many years after, 151 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: the US and the Soviet Union and then Russia had 152 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 1: what they called these deconfliction lines, which allowed the two 153 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 1: countries to communicate quickly in a time of christ. 154 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 3: Right, and that's something that's really lacking at the moment 155 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 3: in US China relations. China has tended to view any 156 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 3: contact between the two militaries as kind of a goody 157 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 3: that it can happen out or rescind according to whether 158 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 3: it's happy with the US or not. The US says 159 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 3: that that's a dangerous stance, but it's nevertheless one that 160 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 3: Beijing's taken. It's kind of interesting. If you talk to 161 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 3: Pentagon leaders, they say they'd like to get to the 162 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 3: stage where the US was with the Soviet Union after 163 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 3: the Keep and Missile crisis, but ideally without a scare 164 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 3: threatens to destroy mankind in the meantime. 165 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: When we come back, why Hi Jinping is the toughest 166 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 1: critic of China's military readiness peep you spell out how 167 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:55,559 Speaker 1: the US military and intelligence establishment is assessing China's military capability, 168 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: but you write that within China there is a very 169 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: deep concern about its own military capabilities. 170 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 3: One of the best ways to look at this from 171 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 3: China's perspective is to delve into the speeches of Chinese leaders, 172 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 3: especially She Jinping, but also into people's liberation army publications. 173 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:20,079 Speaker 3: They're turgid, their hard work, they're sleep inducing, but they're 174 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 3: incredibly rich and rewarding. If you take the time to 175 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 3: go through them, and She's speeches, I think give the 176 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 3: clearest picture of all. And you know, it tends out 177 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 3: that actually the harshest and most unforgiving critic of China's 178 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 3: military is China's President she Jinping, who is at the 179 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 3: same time head of the country's armed forces. 180 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 1: And when you look at these criticisms that she has 181 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: issued of the military, is he actually saying. 182 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 3: I'll give you a sample from twenty fifteen, a phrase 183 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 3: that he called the five cannots. She Jimping said that 184 00:10:55,120 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: PLA officers are unable to effectively judge situations. They're incapable 185 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:05,479 Speaker 3: of understanding authorities intentions, they struggle to make operational decisions, 186 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 3: they have difficulty deploying troops, and they experience problems when 187 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 3: dealing with unexpected situations. So that's effectively everything you would 188 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 3: need to perform effectively in combat. Xi Jinping says that 189 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 3: his officers are lacking in pete. 190 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: These five cannot like, they cannot do these things. According 191 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 1: to Xi Jinping, is just one of the many sort 192 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: of catchphrases that he's used in leveling criticisms at the military. 193 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 1: What are some of the others. 194 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is like a favorite way that she 195 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 3: uses to communicate with the Chinese bureaucracy, these sort of 196 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 3: damning indictments of what it's not capable of doing. So 197 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 3: you've got the five connats, you have the two big gaps, 198 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 3: the five excesses, the four bad styles. All of these 199 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 3: things have been directed toward China's military. One that particularly 200 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 3: concerns him, I think is what he dubs the peace disease, 201 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 3: which is this idea that China's military has not fought 202 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 3: in combat for a long long time and may prove 203 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 3: incapable of doing so. 204 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: And why does he think that the military isn't capable? 205 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 1: Do they conduct war exercises the way most armies do 206 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: to test their readiness. 207 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 3: I think that there are a few different things. One 208 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 3: of them centers on the ability to conduct what are 209 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 3: called joint operations, which is where you have different parts 210 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 3: of a military working together. It's something that the US 211 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 3: spent decades working on after the failures of the Vietnam 212 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 3: War and didn't really perfect until maybe the mid nineties 213 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 3: or even early two thousands. She is acutely aware that 214 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 3: China's forces struggle to do this. It's only recently introduced 215 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 3: the joint command structure, but it's very early on in 216 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 3: the implementation of that process. But it's absolutely something that 217 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,839 Speaker 3: would be necessary if you were to do something like, say, 218 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 3: invade Taiwan with amphibious forces, using naval vessels, using cyber 219 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 3: capabilities and air force overhead. That's one of the really 220 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 3: pressing challenges. 221 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: And pte Jijinpink's criticism of the military isn't justin speeches 222 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: in on paper. He's actually taken action to shake up 223 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 1: the top ranks of China's military. 224 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 3: Right Chikimpink has undertaken an extraordinarily wide ranging set of 225 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 3: reforms aimed at modernizing the PLA. He has purged top 226 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 3: offices from its ranks. He's ordered the military to continue 227 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,319 Speaker 3: its exit of for profit businesses. He's reduced the number 228 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 3: of PLA ground forces in large part because he doesn't 229 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 3: think they would be very useful in any scenario that 230 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 3: China's actually likely to find itself in. And he's also 231 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 3: brought on board a whole range of new capabilities, from 232 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 3: cyber warfare to outer space capabilities. So he's undertaken this 233 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 3: wide ranging set of reforms to modernize the PLA, but 234 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 3: there's every sign that he's dissatisfied with how far the 235 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 3: effort has gotten. So the suorrest sign of that is 236 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 3: the mysterious disappearance of China's Defense Minister Leishalloo over the summer, 237 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 3: someone who was handpicked by Shejinping to lead the country's 238 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 3: defense ministry and shortly after taking office found himself purged. 239 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 3: We've also seen in the last year turmoil inside the 240 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 3: PLA Rocket Forces, which in some ways are the crown 241 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 3: jewel of China's military, and a continued anti corruption campaign 242 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 3: right through the ranks of China's military, which is an 243 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 3: effort that she Jinping began a decade ago, where he 244 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 3: still clearly is unhappy with the progress that's been made. 245 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 3: So I think those things speak to the degree of 246 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 3: his concern about the state of the PLA. I think 247 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 3: it's also really important to put yourselves in the shoes 248 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 3: of a Chinese military officer or an enlisted member of 249 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 3: the Chinese military and think about what does it mean 250 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 3: to have your boss removed, purges through the ranks above 251 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 3: you absolutely no idea who you're supposed to be loyal to, 252 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 3: whether your current or past associations could get you in trouble, 253 00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 3: land you in jail. These things are absolutely lethal to 254 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 3: the effectiveness of bureaucracies, and it's something that at the 255 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 3: moment is endemic to China's political system and especially to 256 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 3: its military. You also have this shortcoming which in many 257 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 3: ways is baked into the way that China's political system works. 258 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 3: It's an incredibly top down political system, and the PLA 259 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 3: is an incredibly top down institution even for a military 260 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 3: and that's something which is kind of a necessary part 261 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 3: of the way that it's designed. It is not China's 262 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 3: national army. It is technically the armed branch of the 263 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 3: Chinese Communist Party, and that's who it answers to, So 264 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 3: that makes it very, very different to most military forces 265 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 3: in the world. It's something that puts Si Jinping in 266 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 3: an incredible position of authority. But it's also something which 267 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 3: means that the Communist Party, which always has an eye 268 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 3: on whether or not it's going to be able to 269 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 3: stay in power for the long term, is constantly looking 270 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 3: at its troops and thinking how loyal are they to 271 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 3: our system? And it has a bunch of ways that 272 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 3: it enforces that which I think that US service members, 273 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 3: for example, would find pretty alien. One of them is 274 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 3: the political commissar system, which means that all military commanders 275 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 3: are kind of shadowed by a Communist Party boss who 276 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 3: kind of second guesses and has a say in all 277 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 3: military decisions. And you can imagine how on the battlefield 278 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 3: that might be something that was really disorientating and confusing. 279 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 3: You also have the fact that all service members have 280 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 3: a political dossier written about them to evaluate their loyalty 281 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 3: to the system, and this is something which has not 282 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 3: really played out in combat for a long long time. 283 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 3: But when you talk to some of the dozens of 284 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 3: experts who exist in Washington, it's something that they think 285 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 3: would be really, really crucial. So I talked to Andrew Scobell, 286 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 3: for example, from the US Institute of Peace, and he 287 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 3: said that when it comes to command and control, China 288 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 3: is very much focused more on the control aspect rather 289 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 3: than the command, and that's something which could really hamper 290 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 3: it in battle. 291 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: I'll add here that officials at China's defense industry didn't 292 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: respond to Bloomberg's request for comment on the PLA's readiness 293 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 1: and its capabilities. And while China has repeatedly said it 294 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 1: isn't planning to invade Taiwan, the government doesn't rule it out. Pete. 295 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 1: You report that these questions about China's military readiness have 296 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 1: taken on new urgency in Beijing as China sees what's 297 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: happening to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which the Russians and 298 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 1: even the US thought would probably end pretty quickly and 299 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,679 Speaker 1: yet has gone on for many, many months with no 300 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: end in sight. 301 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:40,120 Speaker 3: This is something that US intelligence leaders have addressed very directly. 302 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 3: CIA Director Bill Burns has talked about how Xi Jinping 303 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 3: has probably looked at the performance of Russian troops in 304 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 3: Ukraine and it's given him pause about his own ability 305 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 3: to conduct operations in Taiwana against the US. And it 306 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 3: is really important actually to remember the psychologically for the 307 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 3: Chinese military, the Soviet Union and then Russia has always 308 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 3: been there is kind of this big, powerful figure that 309 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 3: has more advanced technology and needs to be emulated. The 310 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 3: Russian military has experience fighting in Syria, in Chechnya, in Ukraine, 311 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 3: something that Chinese troops lack, as we've talked about, and 312 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,479 Speaker 3: yet they found themselves caught short when it came to 313 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 3: their ability to combine to operations in Ukraine. 314 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: Also, the structure of China's military, as you described as 315 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 1: being very top down, this has also been one of 316 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: the big Achilles heels for Russia, which is a top 317 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 1: down structure and didn't have the ability to respond quickly 318 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: on the battlefield, whereas Ukraine's army has been very innovative 319 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 1: in trying to fight off a superior force. Right. 320 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 3: One of the things which US military leaders believe is 321 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 3: critical to modern warfare is the ability for lower levels 322 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 3: of military command to take decisions on the fly. There 323 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 3: was talk in the two thousands about something called the 324 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 3: strategic corporal, the idea that someone at that lower level 325 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 3: would really be able to take the initiative. That is 326 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 3: absolutely antithetical to the way that the Chinese and Russian 327 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 3: political systems work. They have a built in preference for 328 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 3: not trusting their own people. They know that they need 329 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 3: to overcome that, but at the same time, there's almost 330 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 3: no sign that they're going to be able to do it. 331 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: After the break, would the US come to Taiwan's defense? 332 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 1: You've spelled out all the different ways that China's president 333 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: is dissatisfied with the military. Are they now taking steps 334 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: to fix all of these problems that tap down culture 335 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: the questions about their inability to fight? 336 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 3: I think that China's leadership since the beginning of Si 337 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 3: Jimping's term as president, has been focused on doing this, 338 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 3: and they are making progress on all of these fronts. 339 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 3: Question is has it gone far enough and do they 340 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 3: have the capabilities to achieve the goals that they're looking 341 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 3: to achieve. I think the truth is that they have 342 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 3: made progress on almost all of these fronts. The PLA 343 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 3: is continuing to modernize at a very impressive pace. It's 344 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 3: hardware continues to get better. They're trying to address things 345 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,680 Speaker 3: like their ability to do joint warfare and combined operations, 346 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 3: and they're getting there slowly and surely. But the truth is, 347 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 3: and I talked to John Culver, who spent thirty five 348 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 3: years as the CIA's lead analyst of the People's liberation 349 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 3: at ME and he said, no one knows how ready 350 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 3: they are or how capable they are. It's a huge unknown. 351 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 1: And Pete, what about Taiwan's capability? Would they be able 352 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 1: to withstand a military attack from China for any length 353 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: of time? 354 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think it's fair to say it would 355 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 3: be a pretty substantial mismatch in capabilities. Taiwan has been 356 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 3: moving in a direction that the US has been pushing 357 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 3: for a long time, which is to acquire what they 358 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 3: call asymmetric abilities, are kind of things like sea mines 359 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 3: or defenses on beaches that would keep the PLA out. 360 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 3: That's been a slow process, and Taiwan is not where 361 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,360 Speaker 3: it needs to be. In short, the US would need 362 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,199 Speaker 3: to get involved if the island stood a chance of 363 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:18,440 Speaker 3: defending itself. Taiwan has fewer than two hundred thousand full 364 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 3: time troops, so that's obviously a far smaller numbered in China, 365 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 3: and I think it's fair to say they would be 366 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 3: very unmatched in a fight. 367 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 1: And of course that's what Russia thought about Ukraine, and 368 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: yet just resolve and ingenuity seems to have been able 369 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 1: to beat them back. Is that irrelevant comparison. 370 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 3: I think it's relevant in so far as an invasion 371 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 3: would be incredibly challenging for China. But I think that 372 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,959 Speaker 3: the really difficult part for them would be landing on 373 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 3: Taiwanese beaches and then maintaining and supplying those beachheads, which 374 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 3: is where a naval battle would come in. 375 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: In Washington, a lot of people are talking about the 376 00:21:55,800 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 1: possibility of a military invasion happening in twenty seven, But 377 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: is there a reason to put a lot of faith 378 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: in that date. 379 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 3: I think that there are really important reasons to be 380 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 3: cautious about any number like that. What's really important to 381 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 3: understand is that there are a lot of people who 382 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 3: would like more of the US defense budget, and as 383 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 3: a result of that, there's an incentive for folks to 384 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 3: put dates out there which allow them to justify getting 385 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 3: more money or different types of equipment to galvanize Congress 386 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 3: into action. So there's a lot of politics behind any 387 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 3: number that's put out there. The twenty twenty seven date 388 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 3: has kind of taken on a life of its own. 389 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 3: It's something which has now been clarified by the intelligence community, 390 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 3: and they say that they have information that she Jimping 391 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 3: wants his forces to be capable of taking Taiwan in 392 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 3: twenty twenty seven, but they don't have evidence that he 393 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 3: has a plan to do that. I think the thing 394 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 3: that really worries leaders here, though, is less a specific 395 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 3: piece of intelligence which talks about this or that date, 396 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 3: but a general sense that She Jimping's appetite for risk 397 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,719 Speaker 3: is vastly greater than his predecessors, and that makes it 398 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 3: very difficult to predict the way that he might act 399 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 3: next year, five years out, or a decade out. And 400 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 3: it's something which makes Washington's leaders very self conscious when 401 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 3: they think of how they're performing in Ukraine, or in 402 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,879 Speaker 3: the Middle East, or with a withdrawal from Afghanistan. Is 403 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 3: this something that she jinping is going to look at 404 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 3: and assess how likely the US would be to intervene 405 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 3: and say a Taiwan crisis and PTE. 406 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: That really is the big question. Is there an appetite 407 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 1: in the US for a military confrontation with China. 408 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 3: This is something where US officials tie themselves in not 409 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 3: trying to answer because President Biden's words in many ways 410 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 3: conflict with the official policy. The ofvisual policy is that 411 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 3: there is one China, that Taiwan is not an independent nation, 412 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 3: and that whether or not the US would intervene to 413 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 3: aid Taiwan is something that's going to remain ambiguous, deliberately ambiguous. 414 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 3: President Biden, on the other hand, has talked multiple times 415 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 3: in public about how the US would come to Taiwan's aid. 416 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan 417 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: if it comes to that, Yes, you are. That's a 418 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: commitment we made. 419 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 3: So this is something which remains kind of unanswered. 420 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 2: You know. 421 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 3: I think that as Xi Jinping looks at that question, 422 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 3: he's likely to judge that there's very low appetite. The 423 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 3: US withdrew from Afghanistan. It has supported Ukraine with security assistance, 424 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 3: but has been absolutely clear that it's going to put 425 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 3: no troops on the ground. Partly because Putin has nuclear weapons, 426 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 3: and Xi Jinping therefore has decided to continue increasing his 427 00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 3: own force of nuclear weapons. I think that when Chi 428 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 3: Jinping looks at the United States, and I've talked to 429 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 3: senior US officials about this, there's this belief that he 430 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 3: probably has, which is that this is a tired power 431 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,239 Speaker 3: which is risk averse and doesn't want to put its 432 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 3: troops in harm's way. I think he looks at things 433 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,360 Speaker 3: like Obama's failure to deliver on the Red Line in Syria, 434 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 3: the actions taken by the West after Putin's partial invasion 435 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 3: of Ukraine in twenty fourteen, the response of Western countries 436 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 3: to his encroachments in Hong Kong, which in many ways 437 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 3: took the world by surprise. He looks at all of 438 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 3: these things as signs that America doesn't have the stomach 439 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 3: for the kind of fight that it would need to 440 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,919 Speaker 3: engage with China over the Taiwan question. And all of 441 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 3: that begs the question, maybe the PLA will never get 442 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 3: to a stage where it's the equal of the US military, 443 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 3: But if it can get to a point where it 444 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 3: can deliver enough damage, enough lethality that it deters the 445 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 3: US from fighting, then maybe that'll never be put to 446 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:50,159 Speaker 3: the test. 447 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 1: And this is something that we've seen for years that 448 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: in Washington there was this very loud in public concern 449 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:02,119 Speaker 1: about a possible invasion of Taiwan, but China experts always 450 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 1: said there's a very remote possibility because it would be 451 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: such a costly war. 452 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly right. You'd be thinking of potentially tens 453 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,800 Speaker 3: of thousands of young Chinese people sent into combat, risking 454 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 3: their lives, a huge impact on China's economy and on 455 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 3: the global economy that would have the potential to imperil 456 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 3: Chinese growth. I think that a full scale invasion of 457 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 3: Taiwan is something that we would likely see coming for 458 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,919 Speaker 3: quite a long time. It would involve massive mobilization of 459 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,120 Speaker 3: China's economy, a build up of troops off the coast 460 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,439 Speaker 3: of Taiwan. It's not something that could happen overnight. I 461 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 3: think what worries people in Washington more is something short 462 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 3: of that, say, an invasion of one of the offshore 463 00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 3: islands that Taiwan administers but are closer to China. Something 464 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 3: like preemptive air strikes or the initiation of a blockade. 465 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 3: None of those things are easy, but they could happen 466 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 3: much more quickly and arguably could be pulled off more 467 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 3: easily by the PLA, and so I think those things 468 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,640 Speaker 3: are likely front of mind for people here. I think 469 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 3: the thing that really gives China analysts and senior US 470 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 3: officials pause is the idea that she Jimping is a 471 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,919 Speaker 3: risk taker and you never quite know what he's going 472 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 3: to do next. I think very few people thought at 473 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 3: the outset of his term that he would end up 474 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 3: abolishing term limits for the Chinese presidency, that he would 475 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 3: respond to the situation in Shinjag in the way that 476 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 3: he has, that he would take the kind of action 477 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 3: against Hong Kong that he has. So he's someone who 478 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 3: has an appetite for risk, and so the idea that 479 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 3: maybe maybe he'll take that chance here it gives great 480 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 3: cause for concern. And that's exactly why there is so 481 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 3: much attention on what China is doing and on what 482 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 3: the US is doing to prepare for any eventuality. 483 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: Pete, thank you always great to tag to you. 484 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Thanks for listening to. 485 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 1: Us here at the Big Take. It's a daily podcast 486 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio for more shows from iHeartRadio, visit 487 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen, and 488 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 1: we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or 489 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising 490 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 1: producer of The Big Take is Vicky Ergolina. Our senior 491 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 1: producer is Catherine Fink. Sam Gabauer produced this episode. Filde 492 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 1: Garcia is our engineer. Our original music was composed by 493 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 1: Leo Sidrin. I'm West Kasova. We'll be back on Monday 494 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,959 Speaker 1: with another Big Take. Have a great weekend.