Speaker 1: Check it on Man Now Down Man Monday Morning A two.
Speaker 1: It is the Beating the Book podcast ed f L
Speaker 1: Draft Special Love It Skill, Alexander. Thanks for listening. Uh
Speaker 1: last year, you may recall, things got explosive on the podcast.
Speaker 1: We have one of those gentlemen back on the podcast
Speaker 1: this year from the Bet the Edge, NBC Sports at
Speaker 1: the Edge and Deep Dit podcast is Drew Dinsick and
Speaker 1: joining us this year for the first time on the
Speaker 1: NFL Draft. Really a guy who has lots of Uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know. Let's called intel. Let's called intel. I
Speaker 1: don't know how he'll characterize it. The Bear from ESPN's
Speaker 1: College Game Day of course, Stanford Stephen the Bear podcast
Speaker 1: and ESPNS Daily Wager. It's our friend Chris Felika. How
Speaker 1: you guys doing. I'm doing so. Do I have a
Speaker 1: roll of golden get into it as long as it
Speaker 1: lasts a year? Yes, Well we'll carry it through next year. Now, okay,
Speaker 1: Uh So we'll just start here because there's so much
Speaker 1: to get to, but well, we'll just start with the
Speaker 1: news of the day is that the market is moving
Speaker 1: very strongly as it started to this weekend at the
Speaker 1: top of the draft. UH and now we're seeing tray
Speaker 1: Von Walker as high as minus two fifty in some
Speaker 1: spots to be the number one pick in the draft. Chris,
Speaker 1: I was telling you this weekend, I made a there
Speaker 1: was an Aiden Hutchinson minus at number one, and then
Speaker 1: at Aiden Hutchinson plus one at number two. I went
Speaker 1: ahead and did that little ship and again, UH to
Speaker 1: try to bankroll build because I don't to me, if
Speaker 1: Trayvon Walker is going number one, Detroit is gonna sprint
Speaker 1: to the to the podium to draft Aden Hutchinson. What
Speaker 1: are you hearing at the top of Do you believe
Speaker 1: that Trayvon Walker will now three days out be the
Speaker 1: first pick? It seems like that's the direction that this is,
Speaker 1: that this is headed, and it's it's surprising to me,
Speaker 1: and at the same time, it's not necessarily surprising to me.
Speaker 1: I was just listening to to Michael Lombardi and Patrick Maher,
Speaker 1: and Michael seemed to think that it was a there
Speaker 1: was a little bit of a not a battle, but
Speaker 1: in the corner oftionson Balky is in the corner of Walker,
Speaker 1: and he would assume that if you're you're going to
Speaker 1: in making thatsation. So it looks like Walker is going
Speaker 1: to be the pick. And if you're looking to invest
Speaker 1: and want to bet that, like I had to write
Speaker 1: a column for ESPN dot com, and you could play
Speaker 1: Walker and lay the twenty five or two fifty whatever
Speaker 1: it is to go one. You can lay Walker under
Speaker 1: three and a half and an even bigger juice, or
Speaker 1: the best way to play it, I think is to
Speaker 1: take Gaden Hutchinson over one and a half, which was
Speaker 1: one nineties Caesar's like that, that's the best bang for
Speaker 1: your bucket. You do think that Walker is going to
Speaker 1: be the pick, and and we've talked about this a
Speaker 1: couple of times where if you just take a look
Speaker 1: at production in college van Aiden Hutchinson's numbers and everything,
Speaker 1: he's the pick. But at the same time, if you
Speaker 1: look at that orange ball game, how he was absolutely
Speaker 1: manhandled and taken out of the game by a Georgia
Speaker 1: offensive line that was going up against Trai one Walker
Speaker 1: every day in practice. And you would assume that the
Speaker 1: Jaguars football operation, the football scouting people kind of had
Speaker 1: conversations with Georgia, maybe they got some Georgia practice moment
Speaker 1: so about what Trey Walker was doing to that offensive
Speaker 1: line in practice, like maybe maybe that that came into play.
Speaker 1: But if you're just dropping into a vacuum and you
Speaker 1: saw the orange bull Walkers the pick, if you're looking
Speaker 1: at the grand scheme of things and looking at production,
Speaker 1: then Hutchinson to pick. But I do think it's gonna
Speaker 1: come out and play where where walk is the number
Speaker 1: one to go? Overall? The thing? The thing is if
Speaker 1: it's interesting, because if Trayvon is not the number one pick,
Speaker 1: where does he go? Which is? Which is because the
Speaker 1: way that it looks now to me and Drew, I'll
Speaker 1: send this to you, and much of this might be
Speaker 1: through the lens of the bets I made, which we'll
Speaker 1: get to. But it feels like it's Trayvon one, Aidan
Speaker 1: Hutchinson two, um some some version of Thibodeau and the
Speaker 1: two corners Stingy and Sauce Gardener at three and four,
Speaker 1: not necessarily in that order, and then Charles Cross at five.
Speaker 1: That feels to me right now again a little more
Speaker 1: than seventy two hours out to be one to three,
Speaker 1: four and five. I'm not sure how you feel about that, Drew. No,
Speaker 1: I think the point you're making it can be even
Speaker 1: expanded more broadly, and what you're effectively saying is that
Speaker 1: the uncertainty is really really high. That's an obvious you know,
Speaker 1: the observation of this year's AFT. But even more than
Speaker 1: that that the you know that if it doesn't go
Speaker 1: a certain path, then you know, some of these guys,
Speaker 1: you know they're their their range of where they land
Speaker 1: could be anywhere from two to seven UM. And that's
Speaker 1: huge range, honestly, one to seven really for Walker UM.
Speaker 1: And you know, I think you're almost better off kind
Speaker 1: of picking on some trying to pick off big prices
Speaker 1: this year as opposed to getting cute with the over
Speaker 1: unders on some of these guys, particularly in the top
Speaker 1: ten UM. And what I mean by that is, uh,
Speaker 1: you know specifically stuff like Stingley, stuff like um Cross,
Speaker 1: Like if you can nail them to a specific pick
Speaker 1: five or third right, you're going to get five to one,
Speaker 1: ten to one type of prices as opposed to just
Speaker 1: taking like an over under atty you know, at around
Speaker 1: to pick them UM. And you know that you know
Speaker 1: that when you have such a high volatility on where
Speaker 1: these guys all to mily land in terms of the
Speaker 1: you know, the pick positioning UM, you know, I think
Speaker 1: you're almost forced to attack attack things that that way. UM.
Speaker 1: I agree with the kind of the breakdown that Chris
Speaker 1: had for the number one overall pick um going and
Speaker 1: and honestly, this is the craziest number one overall market
Speaker 1: we've had in at least ten years, maybe more. UM.
Speaker 1: To this point, I count six different market favorites, UM,
Speaker 1: and meaningful favorites, you know, not not just not not
Speaker 1: like you know, not just like, oh well, somebody had
Speaker 1: to be at the top of the board. He was
Speaker 1: plus two hundred, no, like Thibodeaux was minus November, Hutchinson
Speaker 1: was minus one in December. Well, well it it went,
Speaker 1: so it went Thibodeaux in November, Hutchinson December, Neil in January.
Speaker 1: Coming out of the combine, it was Ikey coming out
Speaker 1: of the after cag and Cam Robinson, it was Hutchinson.
Speaker 1: I saw how Son as high as minus four d
Speaker 1: um and then it's now flipped a walker and the
Speaker 1: you know the walker flip, um is you saw this
Speaker 1: coming a couple of weeks ago. UM. If you know,
Speaker 1: there were a couple of reports people who were close
Speaker 1: to the Jaguars that just like Chris said, it's split
Speaker 1: like the defensive coordinators and potentially the owner, uh favorite Hutchinson.
Speaker 1: Balki was Walker, and Peterson wanted a tackle and you know,
Speaker 1: just living in that vacuum where well, you know, trying
Speaker 1: to figure out, well, who ultimately gets to decide? Is
Speaker 1: it Dalky like is he you know, is he have
Speaker 1: enough sway in that room to convince everybody to come
Speaker 1: in his direction? Um? And if that's the case, then Walker,
Speaker 1: who was priced in like the plus three fifty range,
Speaker 1: was a crazy price. Um. And so you know, I'm
Speaker 1: if that's how this goes, and he ultimately goes number one, overall,
Speaker 1: it's going to be a very happy day for me, surely. Um.
Speaker 1: But the you know, the there is in the back
Speaker 1: of my head if you have a big price on
Speaker 1: Walker first overall, I don't think it's crazy at this
Speaker 1: point to take a little bit of Hutchinson because you know, realistically, yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, Balki could be out there doing media making
Speaker 1: it clear that he wanted Walker, knowing that if Walker
Speaker 1: becomes an all pro, he'll have the deniability. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: Walker was my guy. I wanted Walker, but the owner
Speaker 1: took Hutchinson. You know, he's maybe maybe building himself a
Speaker 1: little bit of a uh you know, I wanted this
Speaker 1: guy kind of a case. But ultimately there's a very
Speaker 1: thin margins between all of these guys in terms of
Speaker 1: projecting their pro performance. There's no standout superstar to be had,
Speaker 1: which is why there's so much uncertainty at the top
Speaker 1: of the board. And you know, if the Jaguars take
Speaker 1: a take a prospect in Walker who has every single
Speaker 1: measurable at the percentile, and he ultimately turns out to
Speaker 1: be a solid contributor for them, then that's probably the
Speaker 1: best they can hope for. It's uh, you know, I
Speaker 1: don't Just before you, I was just gonna say you
Speaker 1: had mentioned the number to pick. If it is indeed
Speaker 1: Walker number one, I think the Lions, I don't know
Speaker 1: if it's a slam dunk, if they run the card
Speaker 1: up for Hutchinson, like I know for a fact they
Speaker 1: like Thibodeau a lot, So like I I think, I
Speaker 1: think there's gonna be a little bit of a discussion there.
Speaker 1: So I mean, you can get around two to work.
Speaker 1: I think right now. Uh, at Caesar's where I had
Speaker 1: to take the prices from from my column, it's Walker
Speaker 1: Hutcherson Walker Thibodeau for both the same price A plus
Speaker 1: two hundreds, So like it will be one of those two.
Speaker 1: Uh is that's not gonna be Gardener. It's not going
Speaker 1: to be a quarterback. But I don't know if it's
Speaker 1: an automatic slam dunk that it definitely is Hudginson. That
Speaker 1: didn't make me feel good. This is this is, this
Speaker 1: is I probably should have started with this. That the
Speaker 1: reason that we do an NFL Drive podcast and the
Speaker 1: reason like I could talk about the NFL Draft, I
Speaker 1: think I speak for all of us here the entire
Speaker 1: week leading up to it is because there might not
Speaker 1: be a better betting vehicle. And this is proven by
Speaker 1: the results we've all had the last you know, four
Speaker 1: or five years UM doing this at least uh in
Speaker 1: the history of Visa doing it on the show. It's
Speaker 1: just been an incredible boon for betters. It's why a
Speaker 1: lot of bookmakers run scared here in Las Vegas where
Speaker 1: we are here at the D we're broadcasting Life from
Speaker 1: the D that's owned by Circuit Sports. Circuits Sports still
Speaker 1: hasn't put out their their draft props. They're supposed to
Speaker 1: put them out two and a half hour about two
Speaker 1: hours from now, which is twelve noon Pacific. Nevada has
Speaker 1: to take down their lines forty eight hours from now anyway,
Speaker 1: so they're literally doing a forty eight hour window, um,
Speaker 1: you know, and that's almost like a concession on their
Speaker 1: part because they probably rather not book it at all.
Speaker 1: So the reason that we do a podcast on this
Speaker 1: because we all love betting. The draft has been so
Speaker 1: profitable for us, which brings us then to the question
Speaker 1: of this year, which is how uncertain We've all just
Speaker 1: talked about this right now, how uncertain it is compared
Speaker 1: to pass draft, because there is no you know, Trevor
Speaker 1: Lawrence is absolutely gonna get picked number one and then
Speaker 1: filter on down from there. So I guess the question is,
Speaker 1: and I think I've asked I might have asked this
Speaker 1: of both of you on a number his game, what
Speaker 1: do you feel the most confident that you do know
Speaker 1: right now beyond the shadow of a doubt? And Chris,
Speaker 1: I'll start with you, like, what of all the things,
Speaker 1: and maybe it's not at the top of the draft,
Speaker 1: maybe it's this tackle will absolutely be drafted by this team,
Speaker 1: whatever it is, what do you think you know the most.
Speaker 1: We're the most confident and the two things that Garrett
Speaker 1: Wilson's going in the top ten, and I've seen that
Speaker 1: number move off of ten and a half to nine
Speaker 1: and a half now, and that at nine and a
Speaker 1: half it's probably not a play or not as strong
Speaker 1: of a play. Maybe the Falcons do take him at
Speaker 1: eight as an instant Calvin Ridley plug in. Maybe he's
Speaker 1: in play. Is ridiculously high at three to the Texans
Speaker 1: because nobody really knows what's gonna do with three. Um,
Speaker 1: shouldn't they trade that? But I mean, honestly, what are
Speaker 1: they doing? But yeah, we we we always say trade
Speaker 1: the pick. Trade, But who's coming up to three in
Speaker 1: a year where there isn't a quarter after take a
Speaker 1: point in the top half and the top half of
Speaker 1: the draft. You're not gonna come up to three to
Speaker 1: take a wide rece either um or or probably not
Speaker 1: an offensive linement. But the fact that a ten and
Speaker 1: a half you're getting Wilson possibility eight to the Falcons,
Speaker 1: eight at ten to the Jets. If you can find
Speaker 1: a ten and a half still out there, that's a play.
Speaker 1: And the other one, which which was mentioned already, I
Speaker 1: can't remember if it was by you or if it
Speaker 1: was by Drew. The Charles Cross stuff is out there,
Speaker 1: and I think that is a great example of what
Speaker 1: what Drew said about finding plus prices, Like he has
Speaker 1: been very strongly linked to the giants who have five
Speaker 1: and seven, And you can get him at plus seven
Speaker 1: hundred to be the fifth pick, you can get him
Speaker 1: at plus six hundred to be the seventh pick, or
Speaker 1: you can get him at plus four hundred to be
Speaker 1: the sixth pick. Like he's gonna go in that range.
Speaker 1: So you can really fool around with the plus plus
Speaker 1: prices there if you want to cover your basis, I mean,
Speaker 1: get out your your handy arbitrage calculator and if you
Speaker 1: put a hundred bucks on them just as a base
Speaker 1: bit to go plus seven hundred, you can play him
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty bus plus four hundred hundred and fifteen
Speaker 1: bunks plus six hundred and your profit, or you can
Speaker 1: just go five or six and you can profit fifty.
Speaker 1: Like he's gonna go in that range based on everything
Speaker 1: that I'm here on like Caroline is not taking a
Speaker 1: quarterback like that, that that that's not going to happen.
Speaker 1: I know they don't have the second round pick. But
Speaker 1: you just cannot take a quarterback that high when you
Speaker 1: have so many needs and you have so many impact
Speaker 1: players that you can take a six. But but Across
Speaker 1: is definitely gonna go in that five seven range. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I should add that before I said it to
Speaker 1: Drew for the same question, which is uncertainty at the
Speaker 1: top um A a week quarterback class that influences this
Speaker 1: as well, Right, nobody willing to trade up because and Chris,
Speaker 1: I think you said this to me either on air
Speaker 1: or off, like anybody who takes any of these quarterbacks
Speaker 1: high is just ridiculous. Um. And then the third thing is,
Speaker 1: and you alluded to it, we have eight teams that
Speaker 1: have two picks a quarter of the league. A quarter
Speaker 1: of the league has two picks. Also means a quarter
Speaker 1: doesn't have a pick in the first round, but a
Speaker 1: quarter has two picks. And it's never happened before. Six
Speaker 1: is the previous record. Its happened four times, the latest
Speaker 1: of which was But this is two more teams than
Speaker 1: that eight, and so will that create a flurry of trades?
Speaker 1: Will that maybe not create a church flurry of trades?
Speaker 1: And it will be some hybrid perhaps in between. And
Speaker 1: also does that make it more difficult if a team
Speaker 1: like the Giants have five and seven, the Jets have
Speaker 1: four and ten, and the lines of two and thirty
Speaker 1: two and on down the line, does it make it
Speaker 1: that much more difficult for us to predict what they're
Speaker 1: going to do with their first pick visa either second pick. Drew,
Speaker 1: same question for you about what do you think you know?
Speaker 1: What do you think you're the most confident in? I
Speaker 1: would agree that the you know that in general, Umm,
Speaker 1: I'd say I might. We do not see a quarterback
Speaker 1: in the top ten. And there's a couple of reasons
Speaker 1: for that. One is quality of the class, certainly to
Speaker 1: his need. And third I would say is, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the quality of the quarterbacks next year's class really are
Speaker 1: are quite good. And I think to your point, if
Speaker 1: there are trades, and if I was running a team,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you always want to get an
Speaker 1: impact player and kind of continue to start the development
Speaker 1: process as quickly as possible. And it's stupid to kind
Speaker 1: of completely punt, you know, an entire season. But if
Speaker 1: I'm a team like the Falcons or the Panthers, I'm
Speaker 1: I'm perfectly fine punting a season if it means I'm
Speaker 1: picking at the top of next year's draft, and I
Speaker 1: can you know, kind of find stability at the quarterback
Speaker 1: position in an otherwise weak NFC. UM And so if
Speaker 1: you can trade way picks and get first, you know,
Speaker 1: more ammunition for next year's draft and doing that, then
Speaker 1: that makes a ton of sense to me. Um. And Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think if there were a team that were sincerely
Speaker 1: sold in the top ten on a quarterback, we would
Speaker 1: know more about it, because you need to start preparing
Speaker 1: your fan base now so that they're not like, you know,
Speaker 1: it coped by surprise, like, oh, we just took a
Speaker 1: quarterback and nobody wanted awesome, you know, like you're putting
Speaker 1: yourself immediately on the hot seat if you haven't warmed
Speaker 1: up your fan base to the idea of taking your
Speaker 1: quarterback already. And so the fact that we're not there
Speaker 1: as me kind of in that range that the quarterback
Speaker 1: does not go in the top ten. Um. The other
Speaker 1: things I would say, we do know relatively high confidence.
Speaker 1: I think the first four players are going to be
Speaker 1: defensive players, and I think that helps kind of make
Speaker 1: one of their sort of generalized statement about the top ten. Uh,
Speaker 1: if regardless of the order of Walker, Hutchinson, and Thibodeaux.
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see edge go one to four.
Speaker 1: All four teams clearly need an edge. All four teams.
Speaker 1: You know that, you know some specifically the Jets picking
Speaker 1: at four. Um, you know, I think would like to
Speaker 1: address if you can get one of those, you know,
Speaker 1: the top three elite guys, one of those false to them,
Speaker 1: and four they're gonna take them, I think. Um. And
Speaker 1: then you know, there was a ton of uncertainty for
Speaker 1: a long time about what Houston will do three, but
Speaker 1: enough people have been, you know, kind of really trying
Speaker 1: to ferret out some information there and have come away
Speaker 1: with the defensive back they're going to take either Stingley
Speaker 1: or Sauce, whoever they have a higher grade on. And
Speaker 1: if you read the reports this morning, it sounds like
Speaker 1: Stingley is the guy. So Stingley at third overall would
Speaker 1: be wild. Sting at five to one to go third overall,
Speaker 1: And I have that in my pocket, So I don't
Speaker 1: think that's crazy, because so you're betting into five five
Speaker 1: to one Stingley goes through it overall, that's what is
Speaker 1: that uh one in six chance that I think it's
Speaker 1: better who's reporting what this morning. That's just my personal opinion.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the thing that people have to understand,
Speaker 1: like these are that that's the thing about the NFL Draft.
Speaker 1: Where else will you get such a good bet, right,
Speaker 1: a five to one on something like that? And also
Speaker 1: it's it's the one betting vehicle where I am willing
Speaker 1: to lay juice in a way that I might not
Speaker 1: in a standard Wednesday night baseball game. Right, Oh for sure? Yeah,
Speaker 1: because they are they're gonna be. There are some props
Speaker 1: that are up there now that are minus eight, you know,
Speaker 1: five hundred, so they're you know, they're there implied probabilities
Speaker 1: in the range, but it's in reality and if you
Speaker 1: can get a quick turnaround on that kind of stuff,
Speaker 1: like you you know, the standard practice if you're a
Speaker 1: professional player, you're firing every piece of liquidity you have
Speaker 1: available on the Wednesday before the draft because there are
Speaker 1: a lot of those types of edges where this is
Speaker 1: because this is not a random event ultimately like this is,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of known stuff here, so um I think,
Speaker 1: and and for what it's worth, liquidity has been super
Speaker 1: super shallow all all draft season. Even to this moment,
Speaker 1: and you mentioned it with Circle not really putting their
Speaker 1: picks up yet, Like it's been tough to get a
Speaker 1: decent sized bet written on anything, uh so far, So
Speaker 1: there's gonna be some Why, you know, a lot of
Speaker 1: the market moving is on really really low limit stuff,
Speaker 1: and so you know, I would be somewhat cautious and
Speaker 1: trying to read too much into that even though we
Speaker 1: are a week out from that stuff. But to kind
Speaker 1: of go back to what we do know though, I
Speaker 1: think realistically edge edge dB edge for your first four
Speaker 1: makes total sense and is defensible given the talent pool
Speaker 1: you have available Giants, that five would then be your
Speaker 1: first potential landing spot for an offensive player, and tackle
Speaker 1: has been pretty clearly telegraphed to the Giants. Giants also
Speaker 1: are weirdly creating a need right now at wide receiver.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've heard and seen all this stuff,
Speaker 1: but Tony's on the market. Um, they're trying to move,
Speaker 1: you know. They they've sterling their shopping like they could
Speaker 1: potentially create a need for themselves at wide receiver based
Speaker 1: on what they're doing from a trade standpoint. Similarly, Bradberry,
Speaker 1: they have to move off of brad Berry or else
Speaker 1: they're not gonna be able to sign their rookie class um.
Speaker 1: So Bradberry getting traded and creating a need for a
Speaker 1: starting defensive back is real for them. So I think
Speaker 1: with five and seven giants addressed tackle and either one
Speaker 1: of defensive back or wider eiver um. And you know,
Speaker 1: just given that you have three bonified offensive tackles that
Speaker 1: they have eyes for, and neil Ikey and uh and cross,
Speaker 1: they may just punt on on tackle at that position
Speaker 1: and let the Panthers take their choice of tackle at
Speaker 1: six and then they get one of two that they
Speaker 1: are acceptable with at seven, or they flip flop and
Speaker 1: they take their preferred tackle at five and then take
Speaker 1: say somebody like Sauce Gardner or why best wide receiver
Speaker 1: on their board at seven. But I think, realistically, what
Speaker 1: we're breaking what we're breaking down here, Panthers go tackle
Speaker 1: at six. What we're at best case scenario, your first
Speaker 1: tackles off the board of five, your second tackles off
Speaker 1: the board at six. Where is your third tackle? Even
Speaker 1: going number nine to Seattle, We're we're talking about sort
Speaker 1: of implied slide here of the tackles based on where
Speaker 1: they're currently lined in terms of over unders um, and
Speaker 1: so if you just kind of hit a over on
Speaker 1: Ikey over on Neil. I don't think that's a crazy strategy.
Speaker 1: At this point, they're getting kind of juicy. Um, but
Speaker 1: I think one or both of those guys could slide
Speaker 1: into the you know, six, seven or beyond range. I
Speaker 1: have to tell you if if it goes by the
Speaker 1: script you just you decided, it is going to be
Speaker 1: a fabulous night. I mean literally the only thing so
Speaker 1: far that has tripped me up, as if it's not
Speaker 1: hunchreds in it too, and it's hudgets and say it four. Um,
Speaker 1: if you made me say what is my top four?
Speaker 1: Right now? I think it goes Walker Thibodeaux Stingley. It's
Speaker 1: not the worst outcome. You were you were talking about
Speaker 1: implied probability and like actual, like real one probability. There's
Speaker 1: a shop out there that still has over five and
Speaker 1: a half wide receivers in the first round. MIGHTUS four
Speaker 1: hundred tell you about that? Because I think six is
Speaker 1: the baseline, and I think there are at least six
Speaker 1: and you probably could get seven. Right. Yeah, I was
Speaker 1: I was talking with that a friend of ours last
Speaker 1: week and he was like, well, what, you know, what
Speaker 1: are you most looking forward to? And I was kind
Speaker 1: of like, well, I imagine day of the draft. I'm
Speaker 1: just going to fire all the look qudity I have
Speaker 1: on on that over five and a half wide receivers,
Speaker 1: but a bunch of shops moved it to six. So
Speaker 1: now you're now you're yeah, you know, you're you're not
Speaker 1: in as great a spot as you were over five
Speaker 1: and a half because I could see it landing six.
Speaker 1: But um, the wide receiver from eight to about sixteen, uh,
Speaker 1: you realistically could see all five. You can see five
Speaker 1: guys go in that range and it wouldn't be shocking.
Speaker 1: And then at the bottom of the round one you
Speaker 1: have a bunch of teams that need wide receivers that
Speaker 1: potentially are then going to reach because they you know,
Speaker 1: they can't necessarily come out of this draft without addressing
Speaker 1: that position. Looking squarely at like the Packers and the
Speaker 1: Chiefs um and so yeah, the idea of getting six
Speaker 1: or seven wide receivers in round one, I think is
Speaker 1: is pretty high probability. I want to I want to
Speaker 1: I'm blore you guys, but I want to read through
Speaker 1: all of the draft bets that I have here momentarily,
Speaker 1: but um, one thing, um, one thing that I want
Speaker 1: to point out is that sports book point that you
Speaker 1: made here at Circle, they haven't put them up. Westgate
Speaker 1: hasn't put them up yet. Again, they're they're reduced to
Speaker 1: a forty eight hour window and they're doing it by design.
Speaker 1: South Point just put them out Friday. It's down currently.
Speaker 1: I think they're putting it back up this afternoon. So
Speaker 1: like there's a bunch of shops here in Nevada that
Speaker 1: have no interest in really in booking this, but they're
Speaker 1: just doing it to say that they did it in
Speaker 1: the end and narrowing the window as far as possible.
Speaker 1: I will shout out Will Hill. I will shout out
Speaker 1: Stations who are two shops in this town who have
Speaker 1: put up their bets, who have put up their props
Speaker 1: weeks ago and are actually taking big bets on all
Speaker 1: of them. So good for them. There are others like
Speaker 1: Boyd that they're taking bets, but not at big limits.
Speaker 1: MGM has a limited book, but they'll they'll take bets
Speaker 1: on it, and obviously that's only in Nevada. The Draft
Speaker 1: Kings of the world have been offering these bets as well. Um, Chris,
Speaker 1: could you tell peop because there's five states that do
Speaker 1: not allow per gaming regulations draft bets. Can you tell
Speaker 1: people what you're doing to make draft bets? Is just
Speaker 1: drives on the point you live in Connecticut. I do,
Speaker 1: and I don't understand and why the state of Connecticut
Speaker 1: does not allow this. There is no NFL franchise in
Speaker 1: the state of Connecticut. State of Connecticut. Draft Kings, Fandel
Speaker 1: sugar House allow awards betting where it's a vote, humans
Speaker 1: are involved in selecting the winner of these awards. I
Speaker 1: can bet awards and all things like that, but I
Speaker 1: can't get the NFL draft. So, like if they said, okay,
Speaker 1: like North Carolina for example, Like, at least I understand
Speaker 1: there's a NFL franchise in Charlotte. We're not going to
Speaker 1: allow it, Okay, I would at least I wouldn't agree
Speaker 1: with it, but at least I would understand the process
Speaker 1: of doing it. Like there's no light. So we lost
Speaker 1: Chris right there in the middle. He was he's about
Speaker 1: to tell an unbelievable story about the measures that he's taking.
Speaker 1: We'll get your back risk go ahead. Yeah, you know.
Speaker 1: I I literally am my travels to the draft in
Speaker 1: Vegas for for work, for for for game day. I'm
Speaker 1: I made sure I booked a flight through Detroit. They
Speaker 1: half about an hour layover in Detroit where I can
Speaker 1: get involved wrap profit pandals rapt in trigger house and
Speaker 1: in order to get my actionnet because right now in
Speaker 1: in Connecticut I can't do anything. So hopefully these numbers
Speaker 1: will still be favorable to me at a Tuesday around
Speaker 1: seven thirty am when I when I have about an
Speaker 1: hour layover, and I do like my, h my Detroit
Speaker 1: McNamara sprint, what other from the Detroit sports book? What
Speaker 1: other sports? What other sport would you do that for
Speaker 1: where you would divert a flight to make bets on Oh,
Speaker 1: I can't imagine it would be anything saying And it
Speaker 1: comes down to what you said. This is Yeah, there's
Speaker 1: handicapping involved, but it's the it's information, Like the information
Speaker 1: for the most part is out there if you can
Speaker 1: weave through what the noises like and you said it
Speaker 1: as well, like I don't mind laying a price on
Speaker 1: minus four drew over five and a half wide receivers
Speaker 1: if I know six is the baseline and like the
Speaker 1: only time of the year, uh that I would I
Speaker 1: would do that. Well. Last year the offensive lineman sort
Speaker 1: of the same situation. This is a very similar I
Speaker 1: guess I was two years ago. Oh, line was like
Speaker 1: five and a half and you kind of counted on
Speaker 1: your hands. You're like, oh my god, there's gonna be
Speaker 1: five guys gone by pick fifteen. Like the chances of
Speaker 1: one more guy going from D thirty two is high. Uh.
Speaker 1: This is the same kind of deal with the wide
Speaker 1: receivers this year. So here, here are the bets that
Speaker 1: I have made, and I will tell you how I
Speaker 1: in chronicle chronological order. These are the bets that I made.
Speaker 1: First quarterback and drafted. I took a flyer on Derek
Speaker 1: Stingley at plus two eighty. This was several weeks ago.
Speaker 1: Based on what you're saying, Drew, we might have a
Speaker 1: shot at that quarterbacks drap un, I erupt your right
Speaker 1: right there, right basic, Like it's I don't look, I
Speaker 1: get that. And I think people kind of are confusing
Speaker 1: what they've seen from Stingley the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: I compared to wanted to get this fresh, like the
Speaker 1: last two just licked the stand, like l s U
Speaker 1: was a dumpster fire as a program in the last
Speaker 1: few year. You cannot take anything to what happened the
Speaker 1: last couple of years on the field and him sitting
Speaker 1: out and basically saving himself. And maybe there was some
Speaker 1: off the field issues involved. I don't know, But forget
Speaker 1: about everything the last two years that you saw from Stingley.
Speaker 1: Oh was he hurt? Was he not hurt? What you
Speaker 1: saw from him his freshman year. That's what you're gonna
Speaker 1: get in the NFL, Like question about that. And while
Speaker 1: I like Sauce Gardner, you have to remember I think
Speaker 1: a lot of people handicap on Oh he shucked down
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams in the in the cotton Ball, but the
Speaker 1: past was not part of Alabama's game plan in the
Speaker 1: cotton But they could have run to four yards in
Speaker 1: that game if they wanted to. Like, like, sure, he
Speaker 1: did a good job, but how many times did Alabama
Speaker 1: Bryce Young Lu look deep to Jamison Williams. None, because
Speaker 1: like they knew they controlled the line of primage. It
Speaker 1: could just run for six seven yards and carry. So yeah,
Speaker 1: if you're if you like what you see you over
Speaker 1: the couple of years in Garden or fun. But but
Speaker 1: just basing it on that one game always shut down
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams in a game where Alabama wasn't even trying
Speaker 1: to throw the ball. That's dangerous. Whether your bit wins
Speaker 1: or loses, there, that's a good beat. I appreciate you
Speaker 1: saying that because I got into it with the Bearcats
Speaker 1: fan Bearcats fan on Twitter, and that was like, oh yeah.
Speaker 1: He was like, you're crazy if you think sting Stingley,
Speaker 1: who never plays, is better than Gardener. He of course
Speaker 1: cited the Gardener never getting beaten by anybody. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of bona fides talent scouts who think Stingley is
Speaker 1: the best player in this draft. I said that this morning.
Speaker 1: I was like, if I'm an NFL GM, he's he
Speaker 1: is the He's Champ Bailey, he's the guy. I don't
Speaker 1: mean that's the That's the thing with like a bunch
Speaker 1: of this stuff, like how how like in the same people,
Speaker 1: in the same way, people are going to be perplexed.
Speaker 1: How could a guy like walk Or go first overall?
Speaker 1: How could a guy like Stingley go above Gardner? Like
Speaker 1: it's exactly the same situation, Like these teams who are
Speaker 1: picking at the top are so devoid of talent, and
Speaker 1: they're all new, you know, they're all relatively you know,
Speaker 1: recently turned over gms and coaches and all that. Like
Speaker 1: they're you know this, what's the safe pick doing for you? Nothing?
Speaker 1: Like you're going with the high upside like the in
Speaker 1: this draft in particular, Like you're going to be rewarded
Speaker 1: for the high upside guys, um much more than the
Speaker 1: safe picks. And guy like Hutchinson and got like Sauce,
Speaker 1: those are safe picks. They're gonna give you some contribution.
Speaker 1: But um, you know these these new franchises with all
Speaker 1: of these holes that are playing, you know they have
Speaker 1: don't have quarterbacks, so they can't realistically expect to compete
Speaker 1: this year. Um, you know they're gonna they're gonna swing
Speaker 1: for the fences. Alright, we're rifle through these first quarterback
Speaker 1: drafted Derek Stingley plus two. Eight quarterbacks drafted in the
Speaker 1: first round over three minus one. I figured three was
Speaker 1: a push at worse, at worst, there are some people
Speaker 1: that think only two will go in the first round.
Speaker 1: I got a good number on that. I don't think
Speaker 1: that's available. Over three minus one fifteen quarterbacks draft in
Speaker 1: the first round. Wide receive is drafted in the first round.
Speaker 1: I got over six plus one forty weeks ago. Wide
Speaker 1: receivers draft in the first round over six plus one forty.
Speaker 1: That number is nowhere close to what it was was then.
Speaker 1: It's about minus one sixty on the over six. Now.
Speaker 1: Someone was asking me this morning and I still bet it.
Speaker 1: I couldn't tell him no, but just had to explain
Speaker 1: that I got a much better number here. There's a
Speaker 1: total number of safeties in the first round, I said
Speaker 1: under one and a half. At plus one eight, I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna come down obviously Daxton Uh is it
Speaker 1: Daxton Hill? Is that his last name? Dr? Hill? Jolly
Speaker 1: Petrie and Lewis And yeah, there's a two. There's a
Speaker 1: two out there right now. Uh William Hill under two mins.
Speaker 1: So like there aren't gonna be like, you know, you're
Speaker 1: gonna get Hamiltons, but are you're gonna get too? I
Speaker 1: mean it feels kind of pushing it too, but you're
Speaker 1: not gonna get two of those three to land on
Speaker 1: three to beach, I wouldn't think so if you want
Speaker 1: to take a little chance there, I mean under two
Speaker 1: with the better number than one, and you can potentially
Speaker 1: do that. Yeah, I'm a little prepared to lose that one.
Speaker 1: Here's and these are all draft positions. Draft position Derek
Speaker 1: Stingley under eleven and a half minus one ten. Can't
Speaker 1: get that anywhere anymore. These are all chronological. Yeah, what's
Speaker 1: going to position and number? Draft position A mod Gardner
Speaker 1: under seven and a half minus one thirty. We'll see
Speaker 1: draft position Ikey Kuana over three and a half. Based
Speaker 1: on what Drew is saying there, maybe a good bet
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty. Draft position. You like that one.
Speaker 1: I like that. Draft position George Carl loftus over eighteen
Speaker 1: and a half. Here's a case of laying the juice
Speaker 1: minus one seventy. Uh also now find you can find
Speaker 1: a nineteen and a half now minus one sixtie as well.
Speaker 1: I like it. When I left draft position Garrett, George
Speaker 1: is out to twenty one and a half off shore,
Speaker 1: So I like that. That's that's sailing and and juice
Speaker 1: to the over just a few more here, Draft position
Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson, as you talked about, Chris under ten and
Speaker 1: a half minus one sixty five, rap position Charles Cross
Speaker 1: which ends up being my biggest position under seven and
Speaker 1: a half plus one hundred. I did not get the
Speaker 1: best of the best number, but I'll take the plus
Speaker 1: one hundred draft position Cabon Thibodeau under four and a half,
Speaker 1: I laid minus one seventy five. I didn't get the
Speaker 1: best number on that, but I'll take it. And then, uh,
Speaker 1: this weekend my last two I just made these playing
Speaker 1: position of first drafted player by Giants offense plus one hundred.
Speaker 1: I'm loving that. And then I did the Aiden Hutchinson
Speaker 1: Shenanigan at the end, which maybe might be my along
Speaker 1: with the safeties, might be if if if I'm what
Speaker 1: we're hearing, the Cabon Thibodeau goes number two. I'm still
Speaker 1: not buying it. But if that's the case, I'd be
Speaker 1: screwed here. But I did the whole first overall draft
Speaker 1: pick Hutchinson minus second overall draft pick Hutchinson plus one five.
Speaker 1: That was just a bank roll building tandem. We'll see
Speaker 1: if I get torpedoed on that in the end. But
Speaker 1: I love that group of bets and and so you know,
Speaker 1: I'm pretty pumped right now. Things could change in the
Speaker 1: next couple of days. That's for sure, but from from
Speaker 1: what you said, it sounded like you had about four
Speaker 1: that are you can pretty much grade them winners right
Speaker 1: now based on the way the market has moved. Um,
Speaker 1: I hope. But you're also your threat. You're threatened. There's
Speaker 1: a couple. You're threatened some needles, there's a couple. You're
Speaker 1: gonna be sweating. You're gonna have a good draft. Um.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean Thibodeaux. I like your Thibodeau under
Speaker 1: a lot. I think he goes to or four. Um,
Speaker 1: I like your your Wilson under a lot. He's gotten
Speaker 1: massively steamed to be wide receiver one, which means he's
Speaker 1: gone eight or ten um, and then he better go
Speaker 1: away because I don't want to be sitting there now
Speaker 1: around the clock and Garrett Wilson's on the board. I
Speaker 1: don't I don't need that kind of kind of threat.
Speaker 1: So you know what you have going for you actually
Speaker 1: is that I don't think it's a secret that the
Speaker 1: Jets covered Wilson at the tent and that that's his
Speaker 1: hard spot, and that look who's picking nine. It's Oh,
Speaker 1: it's the Seattle Seahawks, who are kind of the most
Speaker 1: um most willing trade team in history during the draft,
Speaker 1: and so anyone has eyes for Wilson, they're coming up
Speaker 1: to nine to get him before the Jets can pick
Speaker 1: him at ten, assuming he gets packed the falcon. So
Speaker 1: I think Wilson in that eight, nine, ten is very
Speaker 1: very solid UM, and then your safety pick is going
Speaker 1: to be a sweat. That one that was the worst
Speaker 1: one of the bunch. I think. Here's what I'll tell
Speaker 1: you about safe the Lewis sen a under thirty four
Speaker 1: and a half because he is a very good fit
Speaker 1: for an enormous hole in the Lions organization, and they
Speaker 1: pick thirty two and thirty four. Um. If the Lions
Speaker 1: use thirty two on him, I won't be surprised if
Speaker 1: they don't. I would expect thirty four to be his backstop. UM,
Speaker 1: But there's other teams that I think have interested in him,
Speaker 1: so he may end up going even before the Lions
Speaker 1: get a chance to swing UM. The thing I'll mention
Speaker 1: about Hamilton's because I have I have a bunch of
Speaker 1: Hamilton's over at a basically a single age. It's all
Speaker 1: the way through double digits, you know, all the way
Speaker 1: through ten and a half was where I stopped betting it.
Speaker 1: But um, he's in the free fall phase where he's
Speaker 1: gonna go so far down the board that teams are
Speaker 1: going to inevitably pass on him because they didn't do
Speaker 1: their due diligence, do you know what I mean? Like
Speaker 1: teams in the twenties may have a crack at him,
Speaker 1: but ultimately pick whoever they have done more research and
Speaker 1: kind of detailed analysis on, just because they didn't think
Speaker 1: he was going to be available when they started their process.
Speaker 1: You know, the combine so speed, he can't cover like,
Speaker 1: he can't cover water receivers, and that's so that's a
Speaker 1: big part of the game. Now. Yeah, he he basically
Speaker 1: is being tagged by a lot of NFL talent evaluators
Speaker 1: is strong safety at this point. And if you think
Speaker 1: using our first round pick on a strong safety as well,
Speaker 1: it's just it's just not it's there's just not enough
Speaker 1: of um you know, of a value for the position
Speaker 1: at that point. And also the um uh you know
Speaker 1: just in general, um, there's a lot of yeah, there's there.
Speaker 1: It's not a premium position that you use a first
Speaker 1: round pick on even and and and the speed was
Speaker 1: a huge question mark and also teams need he needs
Speaker 1: a specific fit at least the way people envisioned his role,
Speaker 1: and maybe all that's unfair. Maybe he's a great pro um,
Speaker 1: but if he falls past say the UH commanders at
Speaker 1: eleven um, there's gonna be a lot of teams either
Speaker 1: don't have a need or haven't done their due diligence
Speaker 1: on him, and he could slide all, you know, like
Speaker 1: you know, you know when Aaron Rodgers slid to overall
Speaker 1: and people are like, how could this be possible? And
Speaker 1: it's like like a lot of teams thought he was
Speaker 1: gonna go number one or two or whatever, and so
Speaker 1: they didn't even really do their due diligence on him,
Speaker 1: you know. And I think you could get into a
Speaker 1: similar sort of situation with Hamilton. Not that he's going
Speaker 1: to be as good as rnyon Rodgers, obviously, it's it's
Speaker 1: such a great other than that part of the analogy,
Speaker 1: I understand, you know, that's such a that's such a
Speaker 1: great point about position though, right say that, which is
Speaker 1: part of the reason why I made that one bet,
Speaker 1: the under one and a half. I like the price
Speaker 1: plus eight, but I was just like, exactly what you said, Drew,
Speaker 1: you don't use your first round pick on a safety
Speaker 1: of Washington last year ended up picking Jamon Davis. I
Speaker 1: want to say they drafted nineteen or seventeen. I can't
Speaker 1: remember exactly where it was. Jamie Davis ended up being
Speaker 1: an outside linebacker. Like they used their first round pick
Speaker 1: on an outside linebacker. Like, you can't draft that way.
Speaker 1: There are certain positions you should not be coveting in
Speaker 1: the first round of an NFL draft, And so yeah,
Speaker 1: that's part of the safety reasoning. Anyway, we'll see. I
Speaker 1: don't expect to win that. Like I said that. You know,
Speaker 1: the other question, guys is, obviously people want to know
Speaker 1: about quarterbacks. I have a bet over three. How many
Speaker 1: do you think go in the first round based on
Speaker 1: what you're hearing and who goes first, who goes second,
Speaker 1: who goes third? If you have any indication of that,
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be three. And I don't
Speaker 1: know the order. The funny because like, yeah, I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be three. I don't think you're going to
Speaker 1: see a quarterback go until late teens, early twenties, and
Speaker 1: then at that point, um, you know, it's just kind
Speaker 1: of I guess here's what I'll say. Last year, the
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers were an open book about taking Naja Harris.
Speaker 1: Everyone and their mother had Naja Harris. You're gonna go
Speaker 1: thought mock draft. The first thing you did is put
Speaker 1: Harris Pittsburgh right. It was, it was. It was such
Speaker 1: a poorly kept secret, and this year for better, you know,
Speaker 1: to their credit. I suppose they are clearly targeting quarterback.
Speaker 1: But if you ask ten people who are kills to
Speaker 1: connect to the organization, they'll give you three answers. I've
Speaker 1: heard the equal split of people saying, oh, no, no,
Speaker 1: I think they really love Willis. No, it's it's absolutely
Speaker 1: it's Pickett. Oh no, for sure, a solid connection to Ritter,
Speaker 1: you know. And it's like, okay, well, you know, if
Speaker 1: if it's that, they've done a good job of kind
Speaker 1: of keeping it a secret exactly who they want. Well
Speaker 1: that was very smart because you know, you had a
Speaker 1: willing trade partner one spot ahead of them, you know,
Speaker 1: anyone if they were out there just beating their chest
Speaker 1: about we're gonna take Willis if he's available to us,
Speaker 1: then it's pretty obvious anyone else that wants him go
Speaker 1: one pick ahead of them, and you're good to go.
Speaker 1: Um so I think that was a smart strategy standpoint.
Speaker 1: I don't know who ultimately they take out of those people.
Speaker 1: You're just making a guess at this point, um, But
Speaker 1: I think that surely the Steelers and then also the
Speaker 1: Titans um have done the most work and sincerely looking
Speaker 1: at taking a quarterback in this year's draft. Um. And
Speaker 1: I think the Bills are an interesting positional spot where
Speaker 1: anyone who has eyes for a quarterback is calling the
Speaker 1: Bills to trade up ahead of the Titans, because if
Speaker 1: you like Ritter, if you like pick It, if you
Speaker 1: like Willis, whoever is available in that range, I think
Speaker 1: you want to pick ahead of the Titans, uh and
Speaker 1: get your guys. So if anyone's kind of in the
Speaker 1: late round trade up for a quarterback, I think the
Speaker 1: Bills pick is probably the landing spot for that. And
Speaker 1: you've probably see three guys kind of going that, yeah,
Speaker 1: get guilt what Drew said, like it'll be I think
Speaker 1: it will be three. And I have no idea on
Speaker 1: the order, because you have to just try and separate
Speaker 1: like what you see, and then how these teams draft,
Speaker 1: Like none of these guys really are first round guys,
Speaker 1: but you know, just based on how teams draft, they're
Speaker 1: gonna overreach on a quarterback and probably put their franchise
Speaker 1: in them in a bad situation for the next couple
Speaker 1: of years if they try, and like like seriously, like
Speaker 1: like like one of the one of the over unders
Speaker 1: Kenny pick was over twelve and a half, Like, I
Speaker 1: don't think it Land has taken him at eight. I
Speaker 1: mean the Seahawks, who the hell knows what they're gonna
Speaker 1: do a nine based on their awful picks lightly, but
Speaker 1: they're gonna take you picking it nine like he's twelve
Speaker 1: and a half like, or is Washington going to take
Speaker 1: him at eleven? I don't think that will be another
Speaker 1: bed like over twelve and a half. I think it's
Speaker 1: another is a pretty good I'm want something that I
Speaker 1: I would agree, And I also agree with the sentiment
Speaker 1: of you know, obviously you know this better than anyone, Chris,
Speaker 1: because you're more immersed in college football than all of us.
Speaker 1: But it's it's on the one hand, they're crazy to
Speaker 1: draft these quarterbacks high. On the other hand, you totally
Speaker 1: get it right because you're nothing in this league without
Speaker 1: a quarterback, and at some point if you don't have one,
Speaker 1: you do go quarterback crazy and perhaps justifiably so, like
Speaker 1: you just want to take a shot, So I kind
Speaker 1: of get it. Um, well, here was my thing with
Speaker 1: the three betting the three. I feel like it's a
Speaker 1: little more likely there's four than there's two. Let's put
Speaker 1: it that way. That's why I made the bet that
Speaker 1: I may. I fully expect to push that bet. The
Speaker 1: white outs, I fully expect to win the quarterbacks I expected. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a sweat at the end of that
Speaker 1: first round, man, uh, because it's yeah, I mean, it's
Speaker 1: gonna take somebody trading back in. I think, um the
Speaker 1: same you know I have there there the teams to
Speaker 1: the twenties. Yeah, and kind of in a normal year,
Speaker 1: these are uncertain picks. In this year, it's even more
Speaker 1: insane just because the top is so uncertain. They but yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, presumably you get you you trade into the
Speaker 1: bottom of the first round, four quarterback if you want
Speaker 1: to develop that prospect, because if you hit, then you
Speaker 1: have a fifth year option of cost control, and that's
Speaker 1: huge if you're building a team. Um, and so there's
Speaker 1: always incentive four teams to do that. And if one
Speaker 1: of these guys pick it, Willis or Ritter or even
Speaker 1: Sam how or even Matt Karal for that matter. If
Speaker 1: somebody has eyes for one of those guys, um, it
Speaker 1: makes way more sense to take him, you know, one,
Speaker 1: than it does thirty three just because of that flexibility
Speaker 1: you get. UM And so yeah, Cincinnati Bengals have the
Speaker 1: thirty first pick right now. They look like an obvious well,
Speaker 1: you know, would be willing to listen to um, you know,
Speaker 1: teams willing to trade up and get get an extra pick,
Speaker 1: uh to move back into the second round if someone
Speaker 1: wants the quarterback there. Um. The problem is really like
Speaker 1: it's been very, very tough to connect the dots between
Speaker 1: any specific quarterbacks and teams this year just because the
Speaker 1: process has been so or at least the reaction from
Speaker 1: the teams has been so underwhelming to these guys. From
Speaker 1: a talent standpoint, Chris said, is his favorite ones that
Speaker 1: he has or what he thinks he knows the most
Speaker 1: of Garrett Wilson under ten and a half and the
Speaker 1: Charles Cross under seven and a half. Is there a
Speaker 1: bet that you have drew right now that you like
Speaker 1: better than the rest? Or are you keeping it pretty
Speaker 1: nitty to use the poker term until day or day before. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean it's tough, Like you said, the liquidity is
Speaker 1: so shallow this year. First of all, like you know,
Speaker 1: there's a couple offshore spots who are usually very very
Speaker 1: who are very willing to take a bet, and you
Speaker 1: can get like twenty five dollars on like some over
Speaker 1: unders right now. It's truly like they literally are telling
Speaker 1: you go bet this somewhere else. We don't want your action. Um.
Speaker 1: The only place that's taking any meaningful bets, the folks
Speaker 1: over at Bookmaker are doing a decent amount of they'll
Speaker 1: they'll write you to win three k with rebets on
Speaker 1: the first you know, on some of the select markets
Speaker 1: that are high profile. Um, so there are a shot
Speaker 1: right all the over unders. Yeah, but if yeah first overall,
Speaker 1: second overall, third overall, you can get two in three
Speaker 1: k with rebets, which is nice. Um. The so there's
Speaker 1: there's just there's everything that I have bet it seemed
Speaker 1: like bananas. So it's not really worth kind of being
Speaker 1: like you know, hey, this this was good at this
Speaker 1: number that you're never going to see again. Um but
Speaker 1: I think fundamentally, uh, the the the ikey, I think, ikey,
Speaker 1: you can still get Yeah, he's over four and a
Speaker 1: half for him minus one twenty very very solid. I
Speaker 1: don't think an offensive player. UM. Similarly, Evan Neil over
Speaker 1: five and a half, I think it's pretty solid. I
Speaker 1: think unless you know, the Giants could take him at five,
Speaker 1: but I think it's much more likely that you know
Speaker 1: that they either go with their guy across before the
Speaker 1: Panthers can take Cross, or or they take a cornerback
Speaker 1: and gardner at five. Um and then um. You know. Similarly,
Speaker 1: the Stingley under is still dable at nine and a
Speaker 1: half even though it's juicy. Um, I think he goes
Speaker 1: in the top five uh and then um uh. In general,
Speaker 1: I think that pulls some that that has some gravity
Speaker 1: on guys like McDuffie, even though he may not be
Speaker 1: worthy of kind of steaming upp aboard right now. If
Speaker 1: two cornerbacks go in the top five, he's gonna go
Speaker 1: before pick seventeen. Um and uh. You know, so there
Speaker 1: there is sort of a compounding or fly effect of
Speaker 1: that stuff. And in the same sense that since the
Speaker 1: wide receivers, like if there's a run eight, nine, ten
Speaker 1: or all wide receivers, um, then Olavy goes way before
Speaker 1: he's expected to go. Um and Burkes goes way before
Speaker 1: he's expected to go. So those unders look pretty pretty
Speaker 1: realistic as well. And honestly, if you're betting at some
Speaker 1: of the legal shops, they'll let you parlay these in
Speaker 1: a way that you can capture that, uh, that there
Speaker 1: will be a run. Who's letting you par right now?
Speaker 1: Draft Kings? Are they letting you parley Draft Kings and
Speaker 1: vandeluv So you can get like you can get We
Speaker 1: looked at this last week, but you can as we speak,
Speaker 1: you can get miss that connection. You could do you
Speaker 1: could do the under under under on Sauce Gardner Stingley
Speaker 1: and then whoever you think CB three is going to be,
Speaker 1: because if those two guys go earlier than expected, then
Speaker 1: some other team taking a court, you know, taking the
Speaker 1: best cornerback available when they get their chance to in
Speaker 1: the early teams I think is pretty likely. So um yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of correlation when there are certain runs.
Speaker 1: A positions and wide receiver and cornerback are the two
Speaker 1: that I think are most likely to have runs to
Speaker 1: the good. Uh, tackle is the one that I think
Speaker 1: most likely to have a run to the bad. I
Speaker 1: think tackles are already sliding. We have seen a lot
Speaker 1: of mock drafts in the you know, early in April,
Speaker 1: where you had two tackles in your top five, three
Speaker 1: or four in the top ten. And I think that's
Speaker 1: not happening. I think you're gonna see two tackles in
Speaker 1: your top ten, one of um, Ikey or Cross. I
Speaker 1: mean it's one of Ikey, Cross or Neil. One of
Speaker 1: those guys is going to slide slide, uh and be
Speaker 1: surprisingly available in like the twelve range or the thirteen range.
Speaker 1: Like Texans could take Stingley third overall and get their
Speaker 1: cornerback that they so cover it and then still have
Speaker 1: a shot at guy like Ikey or Neil at thirteam potentially,
Speaker 1: like it could very realistically happen. Um. And so it
Speaker 1: was you know that that that is on the table. UM.
Speaker 1: I think at towards the bob him of the draft,
Speaker 1: I've heard real deal information that Quay Walker the linebacker
Speaker 1: out of his first round guy. Yeah, there's been some
Speaker 1: some serious smoke there. He's still forty and a half
Speaker 1: at some spots I would play him to the under
Speaker 1: forty and a half. Um, I've seen some real deal
Speaker 1: smoke on Louis scene. Like I mentioned under thirty four,
Speaker 1: makes a ton of sense for him. Those two are
Speaker 1: still widely available, bets I believe. Um, I wouldn't mind
Speaker 1: Walker first linebacker again, kind of swinging for the fences
Speaker 1: here you can find some first linebacker props. Walker isn't
Speaker 1: like the eight to one range. That's not bad. Um.
Speaker 1: You know that there's questions the other guys ahead of
Speaker 1: him in that one. Um, Yeah, yeah, Lloyd and uh
Speaker 1: the other guy both injury concerns Dean Small Um, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I get it wouldn't be blown I wouldn't be blown
Speaker 1: away if there's only one linebacker in the first round
Speaker 1: this year and it's Quay Walker, so taking him the
Speaker 1: first linebackers fun one. It's funny you guys were talking
Speaker 1: about like pen penciling and certain players right like, can
Speaker 1: I just like bet the new Patriots selected Kobe Deane
Speaker 1: with their like like that is a tough like, don't
Speaker 1: bel chick knowing what Patriots did right there, Well, that's
Speaker 1: definitely a price for that. There's definitely for that draft
Speaker 1: Kings you can bet yes nos on them? Will they
Speaker 1: be in the first round? They'd be a top thirty
Speaker 1: two pick. The Parlay thing is just, man, my head
Speaker 1: is exploding. I would go nuts with those if I
Speaker 1: was in a jurisdiction that had those guys. Unfortunately we
Speaker 1: had a we gotta run so because we have a
Speaker 1: heart out here. But I just sort of throw it
Speaker 1: out to you. Any final thoughts that haven't been mentioned, Chris,
Speaker 1: anything that people should keep an eye out on eye
Speaker 1: out four. The only the only other thing that I
Speaker 1: that I had heard from someone who's who follows the
Speaker 1: Browns and is styled into the brown is pretty pretty
Speaker 1: pretty good is he's apparently certain that they're going to
Speaker 1: take a wide receiver with with their first pick, which
Speaker 1: obviously doesn't come until early second round. Of me. They
Speaker 1: did bring him already Cooper, but you lose Landry and
Speaker 1: lose Higgins, and you have DeShawn Watson, you would think
Speaker 1: that they're going to add another weapon to give him
Speaker 1: as many weapons as possible, So you could probably have
Speaker 1: your pick where they're picking. If someone like Christian Watson
Speaker 1: or match she saw that you can get Browns to
Speaker 1: select a wide receiver right around plus two fifty years.
Speaker 1: So that's the only other thing that but I had
Speaker 1: jotted down, and I wanted to get out there like
Speaker 1: it Metchi and pickets like the forgotten wide receivers. You know, yeah,
Speaker 1: I like that a lot. You know, dig dig dig
Speaker 1: dig dig. If you're betting in a legal jurisdiction, the
Speaker 1: offerings that DraftKings and vandel and points bet are far
Speaker 1: superior to what you can find offshore or that I've
Speaker 1: seen in hanging legal you know, in in locally in
Speaker 1: Las Vegas at least um and you can find fun,
Speaker 1: more fun ways to play some of this stuff, like, um,
Speaker 1: if you feel like Cross goes fit to the Giants,
Speaker 1: which I think we all think is a very realistic possibility,
Speaker 1: he's the first offensive player at plus seven fifty, right Like,
Speaker 1: you can find fun, interesting ways to play those surprising
Speaker 1: because because like right now, the top of the first
Speaker 1: offensive player drafted market is Ikey and then Evan Neil
Speaker 1: and then Malik Willis I mean Cross equally likely to
Speaker 1: go first, you know, first offensive lineman drafted, And if
Speaker 1: you look at the offensive line to market, crosses what
Speaker 1: is he's probably still also in that range where he's
Speaker 1: he's plus he's six hundred in the first offensive lineman market,
Speaker 1: but plus seven fifty for first offensive player. Like, it's
Speaker 1: pretty obvious at least to me that if he goes
Speaker 1: first offensive lineman, he's the first offensive player as well.
Speaker 1: So you know, if shop you shop around, and just
Speaker 1: in general, if you shop around. We didn't even mention this,
Speaker 1: but this should be mentioned on every draft podcast every year. Um,
Speaker 1: you're gonna get wildly different prices across different books. So
Speaker 1: get as many outs as you can, shop around and
Speaker 1: and find your best price. You're gonna need more than
Speaker 1: an hour in Detroit. Chris Man plus seven fifties some
Speaker 1: of these man. Alright, guys, I appreciate it, Thanks so
Speaker 1: much much. Good luck with all of our bets. I'll speak,
Speaker 1: I'll throw myself in there. Good luck to all of us.
Speaker 1: Chris Felika, Drew Den stick at Chris Felika on Twitter,
Speaker 1: at Whale Underscore Capper for Drew on Twitter. Thank you guys,
Speaker 1: really appreciate it, of course, Hey, best luck. Enjoyed the
Speaker 1: draft the best betting vehicle of the entire calendar year
Speaker 1: skill Alexander, Thanks for listening. Good luck with all your
Speaker 1: draft bets. On Thursday,