WEBVTT - Beating the Book: The 2022 NFL Draft Betting Special 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.200 Check it on Man Now Down Man Monday Morning A two. 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:16.360 It is the Beating the Book podcast ed f L 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:22.200 Draft Special Love It Skill, Alexander. Thanks for listening. Uh 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:26.000 last year, you may recall, things got explosive on the podcast. 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:28.479 We have one of those gentlemen back on the podcast 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:31.720 this year from the Bet the Edge, NBC Sports at 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:34.280 the Edge and Deep Dit podcast is Drew Dinsick and 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:36.680 joining us this year for the first time on the 0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:39.919 NFL Draft. Really a guy who has lots of Uh, 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:42.519 I don't know. Let's called intel. Let's called intel. I 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:45.440 don't know how he'll characterize it. The Bear from ESPN's 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:47.640 College Game Day of course, Stanford Stephen the Bear podcast 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:50.920 and ESPNS Daily Wager. It's our friend Chris Felika. How 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:59.520 you guys doing. I'm doing so. Do I have a 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:04.080 roll of golden get into it as long as it 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:12.640 lasts a year? Yes, Well we'll carry it through next year. Now, okay, 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:16.120 Uh So we'll just start here because there's so much 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:17.760 to get to, but well, we'll just start with the 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:21.280 news of the day is that the market is moving 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:24.319 very strongly as it started to this weekend at the 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:27.880 top of the draft. UH and now we're seeing tray 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:31.920 Von Walker as high as minus two fifty in some 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:35.840 spots to be the number one pick in the draft. Chris, 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:38.319 I was telling you this weekend, I made a there 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:41.160 was an Aiden Hutchinson minus at number one, and then 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:45.000 at Aiden Hutchinson plus one at number two. I went 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:47.560 ahead and did that little ship and again, UH to 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:50.280 try to bankroll build because I don't to me, if 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:53.320 Trayvon Walker is going number one, Detroit is gonna sprint 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.880 to the to the podium to draft Aden Hutchinson. What 0:01:56.960 --> 0:01:58.480 are you hearing at the top of Do you believe 0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:01.040 that Trayvon Walker will now three days out be the 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:05.400 first pick? It seems like that's the direction that this is, 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:09.320 that this is headed, and it's it's surprising to me, 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.400 and at the same time, it's not necessarily surprising to me. 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:16.520 I was just listening to to Michael Lombardi and Patrick Maher, 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:19.000 and Michael seemed to think that it was a there 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.280 was a little bit of a not a battle, but 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:27.560 in the corner oftionson Balky is in the corner of Walker, 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:32.840 and he would assume that if you're you're going to 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:38.080 in making thatsation. So it looks like Walker is going 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:41.320 to be the pick. And if you're looking to invest 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:44.240 and want to bet that, like I had to write 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:47.639 a column for ESPN dot com, and you could play 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:51.480 Walker and lay the twenty five or two fifty whatever 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.160 it is to go one. You can lay Walker under 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:56.920 three and a half and an even bigger juice, or 0:02:57.000 --> 0:02:59.800 the best way to play it, I think is to 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:03.200 take Gaden Hutchinson over one and a half, which was 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:06.400 one nineties Caesar's like that, that's the best bang for 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:09.480 your bucket. You do think that Walker is going to 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:11.680 be the pick, and and we've talked about this a 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:14.120 couple of times where if you just take a look 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:17.919 at production in college van Aiden Hutchinson's numbers and everything, 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:21.639 he's the pick. But at the same time, if you 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:25.000 look at that orange ball game, how he was absolutely 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:28.320 manhandled and taken out of the game by a Georgia 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:31.000 offensive line that was going up against Trai one Walker 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:34.240 every day in practice. And you would assume that the 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:38.240 Jaguars football operation, the football scouting people kind of had 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:41.080 conversations with Georgia, maybe they got some Georgia practice moment 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:43.560 so about what Trey Walker was doing to that offensive 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:47.200 line in practice, like maybe maybe that that came into play. 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.320 But if you're just dropping into a vacuum and you 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:52.520 saw the orange bull Walkers the pick, if you're looking 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:54.720 at the grand scheme of things and looking at production, 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:57.240 then Hutchinson to pick. But I do think it's gonna 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:00.760 come out and play where where walk is the number 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:02.720 one to go? Overall? The thing? The thing is if 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.680 it's interesting, because if Trayvon is not the number one pick, 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:09.560 where does he go? Which is? Which is because the 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.800 way that it looks now to me and Drew, I'll 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:14.440 send this to you, and much of this might be 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:15.960 through the lens of the bets I made, which we'll 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:19.599 get to. But it feels like it's Trayvon one, Aidan 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:28.280 Hutchinson two, um some some version of Thibodeau and the 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:32.040 two corners Stingy and Sauce Gardener at three and four, 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:35.480 not necessarily in that order, and then Charles Cross at five. 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:38.680 That feels to me right now again a little more 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:41.440 than seventy two hours out to be one to three, 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:44.480 four and five. I'm not sure how you feel about that, Drew. No, 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:47.960 I think the point you're making it can be even 0:04:49.279 --> 0:04:53.800 expanded more broadly, and what you're effectively saying is that 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:58.400 the uncertainty is really really high. That's an obvious you know, 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.360 the observation of this year's AFT. But even more than 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:04.880 that that the you know that if it doesn't go 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:08.320 a certain path, then you know, some of these guys, 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:11.520 you know they're their their range of where they land 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:15.120 could be anywhere from two to seven UM. And that's 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:19.560 huge range, honestly, one to seven really for Walker UM. 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:25.080 And you know, I think you're almost better off kind 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:28.520 of picking on some trying to pick off big prices 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:31.320 this year as opposed to getting cute with the over 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:33.800 unders on some of these guys, particularly in the top 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.440 ten UM. And what I mean by that is, uh, 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:42.200 you know specifically stuff like Stingley, stuff like um Cross, 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:44.960 Like if you can nail them to a specific pick 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:48.400 five or third right, you're going to get five to one, 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.719 ten to one type of prices as opposed to just 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:53.400 taking like an over under atty you know, at around 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:56.200 to pick them UM. And you know that you know 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:59.440 that when you have such a high volatility on where 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:01.120 these guys all to mily land in terms of the 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.400 you know, the pick positioning UM, you know, I think 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:09.560 you're almost forced to attack attack things that that way. UM. 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:12.920 I agree with the kind of the breakdown that Chris 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:17.839 had for the number one overall pick um going and 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.599 and honestly, this is the craziest number one overall market 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:25.040 we've had in at least ten years, maybe more. UM. 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:30.240 To this point, I count six different market favorites, UM, 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:33.080 and meaningful favorites, you know, not not just not not 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:35.720 like you know, not just like, oh well, somebody had 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:36.840 to be at the top of the board. He was 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:41.520 plus two hundred, no, like Thibodeaux was minus November, Hutchinson 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:47.640 was minus one in December. Well, well it it went, 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:53.400 so it went Thibodeaux in November, Hutchinson December, Neil in January. 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:56.120 Coming out of the combine, it was Ikey coming out 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.120 of the after cag and Cam Robinson, it was Hutchinson. 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:01.360 I saw how Son as high as minus four d 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.440 um and then it's now flipped a walker and the 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:09.240 you know the walker flip, um is you saw this 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.160 coming a couple of weeks ago. UM. If you know, 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:14.160 there were a couple of reports people who were close 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.840 to the Jaguars that just like Chris said, it's split 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:21.840 like the defensive coordinators and potentially the owner, uh favorite Hutchinson. 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:28.240 Balki was Walker, and Peterson wanted a tackle and you know, 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:30.640 just living in that vacuum where well, you know, trying 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:32.960 to figure out, well, who ultimately gets to decide? Is 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:34.880 it Dalky like is he you know, is he have 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:37.120 enough sway in that room to convince everybody to come 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:40.320 in his direction? Um? And if that's the case, then Walker, 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:42.440 who was priced in like the plus three fifty range, 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.000 was a crazy price. Um. And so you know, I'm 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:49.320 if that's how this goes, and he ultimately goes number one, overall, 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.440 it's going to be a very happy day for me, surely. Um. 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.640 But the you know, the there is in the back 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:57.360 of my head if you have a big price on 0:07:57.440 --> 0:08:00.760 Walker first overall, I don't think it's crazy at this 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:05.120 point to take a little bit of Hutchinson because you know, realistically, yeah, 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.600 you know, Balki could be out there doing media making 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:12.040 it clear that he wanted Walker, knowing that if Walker 0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:14.480 becomes an all pro, he'll have the deniability. Well, you know, 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:16.880 Walker was my guy. I wanted Walker, but the owner 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:21.400 took Hutchinson. You know, he's maybe maybe building himself a 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:24.960 little bit of a uh you know, I wanted this 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.200 guy kind of a case. But ultimately there's a very 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.440 thin margins between all of these guys in terms of 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:35.800 projecting their pro performance. There's no standout superstar to be had, 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:37.800 which is why there's so much uncertainty at the top 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:40.679 of the board. And you know, if the Jaguars take 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.120 a take a prospect in Walker who has every single 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:46.400 measurable at the percentile, and he ultimately turns out to 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:48.880 be a solid contributor for them, then that's probably the 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.199 best they can hope for. It's uh, you know, I 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:54.120 don't Just before you, I was just gonna say you 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:58.560 had mentioned the number to pick. If it is indeed 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:02.839 Walker number one, I think the Lions, I don't know 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:05.959 if it's a slam dunk, if they run the card 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.880 up for Hutchinson, like I know for a fact they 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:12.319 like Thibodeau a lot, So like I I think, I 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:14.439 think there's gonna be a little bit of a discussion there. 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:16.400 So I mean, you can get around two to work. 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.559 I think right now. Uh, at Caesar's where I had 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.360 to take the prices from from my column, it's Walker 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:25.680 Hutcherson Walker Thibodeau for both the same price A plus 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:28.480 two hundreds, So like it will be one of those two. 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:30.560 Uh is that's not gonna be Gardener. It's not going 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.160 to be a quarterback. But I don't know if it's 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:37.520 an automatic slam dunk that it definitely is Hudginson. That 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:41.160 didn't make me feel good. This is this is, this 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.280 is I probably should have started with this. That the 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:46.480 reason that we do an NFL Drive podcast and the 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:48.679 reason like I could talk about the NFL Draft, I 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:50.840 think I speak for all of us here the entire 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.080 week leading up to it is because there might not 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:55.800 be a better betting vehicle. And this is proven by 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:58.040 the results we've all had the last you know, four 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:01.680 or five years UM doing this at least uh in 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:04.520 the history of Visa doing it on the show. It's 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:07.120 just been an incredible boon for betters. It's why a 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:10.520 lot of bookmakers run scared here in Las Vegas where 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:12.520 we are here at the D we're broadcasting Life from 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:14.760 the D that's owned by Circuit Sports. Circuits Sports still 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.400 hasn't put out their their draft props. They're supposed to 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:19.240 put them out two and a half hour about two 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:23.079 hours from now, which is twelve noon Pacific. Nevada has 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:27.599 to take down their lines forty eight hours from now anyway, 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:31.960 so they're literally doing a forty eight hour window, um, 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:34.920 you know, and that's almost like a concession on their 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:36.839 part because they probably rather not book it at all. 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:38.760 So the reason that we do a podcast on this 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:40.400 because we all love betting. The draft has been so 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:43.600 profitable for us, which brings us then to the question 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:46.920 of this year, which is how uncertain We've all just 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:49.320 talked about this right now, how uncertain it is compared 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:51.720 to pass draft, because there is no you know, Trevor 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.480 Lawrence is absolutely gonna get picked number one and then 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:57.400 filter on down from there. So I guess the question is, 0:10:57.400 --> 0:10:59.000 and I think I've asked I might have asked this 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:01.600 of both of you on a number his game, what 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:05.200 do you feel the most confident that you do know 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:08.520 right now beyond the shadow of a doubt? And Chris, 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:10.920 I'll start with you, like, what of all the things, 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:12.280 and maybe it's not at the top of the draft, 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:17.840 maybe it's this tackle will absolutely be drafted by this team, 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:21.680 whatever it is, what do you think you know the most. 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:26.200 We're the most confident and the two things that Garrett 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.760 Wilson's going in the top ten, and I've seen that 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.680 number move off of ten and a half to nine 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:33.520 and a half now, and that at nine and a 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:37.240 half it's probably not a play or not as strong 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.160 of a play. Maybe the Falcons do take him at 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.880 eight as an instant Calvin Ridley plug in. Maybe he's 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:47.720 in play. Is ridiculously high at three to the Texans 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:50.720 because nobody really knows what's gonna do with three. Um, 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.160 shouldn't they trade that? But I mean, honestly, what are 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.200 they doing? But yeah, we we we always say trade 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:58.840 the pick. Trade, But who's coming up to three in 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:00.599 a year where there isn't a quarter after take a 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:02.439 point in the top half and the top half of 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:04.240 the draft. You're not gonna come up to three to 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:08.160 take a wide rece either um or or probably not 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:10.400 an offensive linement. But the fact that a ten and 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.760 a half you're getting Wilson possibility eight to the Falcons, 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.079 eight at ten to the Jets. If you can find 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:18.559 a ten and a half still out there, that's a play. 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:21.719 And the other one, which which was mentioned already, I 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:23.960 can't remember if it was by you or if it 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.439 was by Drew. The Charles Cross stuff is out there, 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.120 and I think that is a great example of what 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:32.040 what Drew said about finding plus prices, Like he has 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:35.800 been very strongly linked to the giants who have five 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.960 and seven, And you can get him at plus seven 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.079 hundred to be the fifth pick, you can get him 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:43.880 at plus six hundred to be the seventh pick, or 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:45.640 you can get him at plus four hundred to be 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:48.160 the sixth pick. Like he's gonna go in that range. 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:51.959 So you can really fool around with the plus plus 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.319 prices there if you want to cover your basis, I mean, 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:57.160 get out your your handy arbitrage calculator and if you 0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:58.840 put a hundred bucks on them just as a base 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.240 bit to go plus seven hundred, you can play him 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:05.440 hundred and sixty bus plus four hundred hundred and fifteen 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.839 bunks plus six hundred and your profit, or you can 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:13.079 just go five or six and you can profit fifty. 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.920 Like he's gonna go in that range based on everything 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:18.720 that I'm here on like Caroline is not taking a 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:21.600 quarterback like that, that that that's not going to happen. 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.440 I know they don't have the second round pick. But 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:27.560 you just cannot take a quarterback that high when you 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.400 have so many needs and you have so many impact 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:33.200 players that you can take a six. But but Across 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.400 is definitely gonna go in that five seven range. Yeah, 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:37.760 And I should add that before I said it to 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.280 Drew for the same question, which is uncertainty at the 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:45.360 top um A a week quarterback class that influences this 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:48.080 as well, Right, nobody willing to trade up because and Chris, 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.080 I think you said this to me either on air 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.640 or off, like anybody who takes any of these quarterbacks 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.080 high is just ridiculous. Um. And then the third thing is, 0:13:56.240 --> 0:13:59.440 and you alluded to it, we have eight teams that 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:03.600 have two picks a quarter of the league. A quarter 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:05.760 of the league has two picks. Also means a quarter 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:07.520 doesn't have a pick in the first round, but a 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:10.600 quarter has two picks. And it's never happened before. Six 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:13.000 is the previous record. Its happened four times, the latest 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.280 of which was But this is two more teams than 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:20.120 that eight, and so will that create a flurry of trades? 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.080 Will that maybe not create a church flurry of trades? 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.680 And it will be some hybrid perhaps in between. And 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:28.880 also does that make it more difficult if a team 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:30.800 like the Giants have five and seven, the Jets have 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.240 four and ten, and the lines of two and thirty 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:35.400 two and on down the line, does it make it 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.080 that much more difficult for us to predict what they're 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:42.560 going to do with their first pick visa either second pick. Drew, 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.480 same question for you about what do you think you know? 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.920 What do you think you're the most confident in? I 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:53.000 would agree that the you know that in general, Umm, 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:56.080 I'd say I might. We do not see a quarterback 0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:59.560 in the top ten. And there's a couple of reasons 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:02.320 for that. One is quality of the class, certainly to 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.960 his need. And third I would say is, uh, you know, 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.720 the quality of the quarterbacks next year's class really are 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:12.000 are quite good. And I think to your point, if 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.240 there are trades, and if I was running a team, 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.840 I mean, you know, you always want to get an 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:19.400 impact player and kind of continue to start the development 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:22.080 process as quickly as possible. And it's stupid to kind 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.880 of completely punt, you know, an entire season. But if 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:28.360 I'm a team like the Falcons or the Panthers, I'm 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.880 I'm perfectly fine punting a season if it means I'm 0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:33.680 picking at the top of next year's draft, and I 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.080 can you know, kind of find stability at the quarterback 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:39.520 position in an otherwise weak NFC. UM And so if 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.640 you can trade way picks and get first, you know, 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.440 more ammunition for next year's draft and doing that, then 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.320 that makes a ton of sense to me. Um. And Yeah, 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:50.479 I think if there were a team that were sincerely 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.080 sold in the top ten on a quarterback, we would 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:55.440 know more about it, because you need to start preparing 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:58.280 your fan base now so that they're not like, you know, 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:00.920 it coped by surprise, like, oh, we just took a 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.840 quarterback and nobody wanted awesome, you know, like you're putting 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:06.080 yourself immediately on the hot seat if you haven't warmed 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:07.880 up your fan base to the idea of taking your 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.360 quarterback already. And so the fact that we're not there 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.240 as me kind of in that range that the quarterback 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:15.600 does not go in the top ten. Um. The other 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:19.000 things I would say, we do know relatively high confidence. 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:21.720 I think the first four players are going to be 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:25.320 defensive players, and I think that helps kind of make 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:29.800 one of their sort of generalized statement about the top ten. Uh, 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:34.920 if regardless of the order of Walker, Hutchinson, and Thibodeaux. 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:37.880 I think you're going to see edge go one to four. 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:42.200 All four teams clearly need an edge. All four teams. 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.360 You know that, you know some specifically the Jets picking 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:47.800 at four. Um, you know, I think would like to 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:50.360 address if you can get one of those, you know, 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.320 the top three elite guys, one of those false to them, 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:55.880 and four they're gonna take them, I think. Um. And 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:58.280 then you know, there was a ton of uncertainty for 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:00.760 a long time about what Houston will do three, but 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:03.680 enough people have been, you know, kind of really trying 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.080 to ferret out some information there and have come away 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.560 with the defensive back they're going to take either Stingley 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.920 or Sauce, whoever they have a higher grade on. And 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.359 if you read the reports this morning, it sounds like 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.760 Stingley is the guy. So Stingley at third overall would 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:23.719 be wild. Sting at five to one to go third overall, 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:25.600 And I have that in my pocket, So I don't 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:28.280 think that's crazy, because so you're betting into five five 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.359 to one Stingley goes through it overall, that's what is 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.400 that uh one in six chance that I think it's 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:38.159 better who's reporting what this morning. That's just my personal opinion. 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.240 I mean, that's the thing that people have to understand, 0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:42.679 like these are that that's the thing about the NFL Draft. 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.320 Where else will you get such a good bet, right, 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:48.879 a five to one on something like that? And also 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:52.320 it's it's the one betting vehicle where I am willing 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.200 to lay juice in a way that I might not 0:17:56.119 --> 0:18:00.280 in a standard Wednesday night baseball game. Right, Oh for sure? Yeah, 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:02.520 because they are they're gonna be. There are some props 0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:04.960 that are up there now that are minus eight, you know, 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:09.120 five hundred, so they're you know, they're there implied probabilities 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:12.520 in the range, but it's in reality and if you 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:14.280 can get a quick turnaround on that kind of stuff, 0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:16.639 like you you know, the standard practice if you're a 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:19.800 professional player, you're firing every piece of liquidity you have 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:23.040 available on the Wednesday before the draft because there are 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.000 a lot of those types of edges where this is 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:29.280 because this is not a random event ultimately like this is, 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.280 there's a lot of known stuff here, so um I think, 0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:35.000 and and for what it's worth, liquidity has been super 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:38.680 super shallow all all draft season. Even to this moment, 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:40.600 and you mentioned it with Circle not really putting their 0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:42.879 picks up yet, Like it's been tough to get a 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:46.040 decent sized bet written on anything, uh so far, So 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:47.760 there's gonna be some Why, you know, a lot of 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:52.240 the market moving is on really really low limit stuff, 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:56.520 and so you know, I would be somewhat cautious and 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:58.800 trying to read too much into that even though we 0:18:58.840 --> 0:19:00.960 are a week out from that stuff. But to kind 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:03.000 of go back to what we do know though, I 0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:07.040 think realistically edge edge dB edge for your first four 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:11.359 makes total sense and is defensible given the talent pool 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.560 you have available Giants, that five would then be your 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:18.320 first potential landing spot for an offensive player, and tackle 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:22.760 has been pretty clearly telegraphed to the Giants. Giants also 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:26.240 are weirdly creating a need right now at wide receiver. 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:28.359 I don't know if you've heard and seen all this stuff, 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.200 but Tony's on the market. Um, they're trying to move, 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:34.480 you know. They they've sterling their shopping like they could 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:37.560 potentially create a need for themselves at wide receiver based 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:41.919 on what they're doing from a trade standpoint. Similarly, Bradberry, 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:44.080 they have to move off of brad Berry or else 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.720 they're not gonna be able to sign their rookie class um. 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:50.720 So Bradberry getting traded and creating a need for a 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.600 starting defensive back is real for them. So I think 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:57.720 with five and seven giants addressed tackle and either one 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:01.959 of defensive back or wider eiver um. And you know, 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:06.679 just given that you have three bonified offensive tackles that 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:10.280 they have eyes for, and neil Ikey and uh and cross, 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:14.720 they may just punt on on tackle at that position 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:16.840 and let the Panthers take their choice of tackle at 0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:19.119 six and then they get one of two that they 0:20:19.160 --> 0:20:22.600 are acceptable with at seven, or they flip flop and 0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:24.880 they take their preferred tackle at five and then take 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:27.639 say somebody like Sauce Gardner or why best wide receiver 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:30.399 on their board at seven. But I think, realistically, what 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:33.040 we're breaking what we're breaking down here, Panthers go tackle 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:37.200 at six. What we're at best case scenario, your first 0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:39.159 tackles off the board of five, your second tackles off 0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:41.560 the board at six. Where is your third tackle? Even 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:45.560 going number nine to Seattle, We're we're talking about sort 0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:49.120 of implied slide here of the tackles based on where 0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:52.560 they're currently lined in terms of over unders um, and 0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:54.720 so if you just kind of hit a over on 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:57.840 Ikey over on Neil. I don't think that's a crazy strategy. 0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:00.919 At this point, they're getting kind of juicy. Um, but 0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:03.520