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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business app.

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Speaker 1: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. We're

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Speaker 3: live from Washington here, and we start with two big

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Speaker 3: things that you need to know right now. First, and

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Speaker 3: this is all fresh today. The Treasury Secretary will update

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Speaker 3: us on the X date. And then comes the big

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Speaker 3: meeting Speaker McCarthy and President Biden. Five thirty pm Washington time.

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Speaker 3: It's just been made official a short time ago. From

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Speaker 3: the White House five thirty pm. The President meets with

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Speaker 3: Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the Oval Office, and they each

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Speaker 3: of course are carrying their own posture into this, trying

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Speaker 3: to acknowledge some optimism, some progress, while also making it

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Speaker 3: clear that they don't love what the others said it

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Speaker 3: is asking for. Here's President Biden in Hiroshima.

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Speaker 4: We are willing to cut spending as well as Ray's

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Speaker 4: revenue so people start paying they're fair share.

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Speaker 3: Speaker McCarthy last evening on the Hill, trying to thread

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Speaker 3: the needle in his own way.

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Speaker 1: I walk through things that I'm looking at, and what

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at are where our differences are.

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Speaker 3: And how could we solve those And I felt that

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Speaker 3: part was a productive productor if there's no agreement, we're

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Speaker 3: still apart, still far up. Okay, so similar met productive.

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Speaker 3: We're willing to do this, but we're still far apart.

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Speaker 3: That's where we begin with Zach Cohen Bloomberg Government Congress

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Speaker 3: reporters joining us for the latest on this, and Zach

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Speaker 3: has been following each wrinkle here. What should we expect

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Speaker 3: knowing all of this, Zach, from this meeting they start

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Speaker 3: at five point thirty. We don't get a deal tonight.

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Speaker 5: Doing that seems unlikely, especially given the fact that they

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Speaker 5: are far apart on really kind of key issues, including

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Speaker 5: how long would any spending caps go, or which parts

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Speaker 5: of the government would be subject to these caps or

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Speaker 5: Republicans have talked about trying to exempt things like defense

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Speaker 5: spending military spending from any automatic caps, whereas Democrats thin

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Speaker 5: those should be part of the discussions as part of

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Speaker 5: an ongoing negotiation over how much social services or domestic

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Speaker 5: spending should be included. These are all really critical questions

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Speaker 5: that usually take weeks or months for congressional appropriators government

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Speaker 5: spenders to figure out and so, but this particular meeting

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Speaker 5: is going to be important. A number of their negotiators

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Speaker 5: met over the weekend the White House and from the

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Speaker 5: McCarthy team, and now it really gets down to brass

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Speaker 5: tacks here.

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Speaker 3: So what does that tell us here? I don't want

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Speaker 3: to turn you into a market analyst, but the potential

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Speaker 3: for anything to come out of this meeting tonight while

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Speaker 3: Wall Street is listening, there are a lot of concerns

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Speaker 3: about what might happen when the bell rings tomorrow, because

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Speaker 3: you know, if they walk out kind of like we

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Speaker 3: saw last week, or if Kevin McCarthy comes in the

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Speaker 3: driveway and says, not an honest player, We're not getting

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Speaker 3: anywhere here. This is going to have real repercussions. I

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Speaker 3: presume the financial markets beyond the gyrations we've already seen

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Speaker 3: in bond Zach.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think it's any accident that this meeting

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Speaker 5: is happening in a five point thirty, certainly after the

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Speaker 5: market's close, and that a lot of the sort of

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Speaker 5: drama was happening over the weekend Saturday morning, Republican negotiators

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Speaker 5: coming out and saying they're not being serious, we're putting

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Speaker 5: a pause on these talks. Is that it happened while

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Speaker 5: the markets were in session. I think that would have

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Speaker 5: been a different conversation. And so, look, they certainly need

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Speaker 5: to come to some form of an agreement, and I

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Speaker 5: do think that some form of market instability or maybe

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Speaker 5: even a credit downgrade might be the thing that finally

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Speaker 5: gets them to in agreement. That's what's what we saw

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Speaker 5: in twenty eleven, where we saw the US government's credit

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Speaker 5: rating de doowngraded before an eventual agreement was reached. And

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Speaker 5: there needs to be that kind of financial pressure before

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Speaker 5: folks get down to the actual details that need to

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Speaker 5: be reaching the hard decisions or to get something over

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Speaker 5: the finish line.

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Speaker 3: Zach, thank you so much. Zach Cohen Bloomberg Government Congress

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Speaker 3: Report or seeing things up for our conversation with Barbara Boxer,

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Speaker 3: the former Democratic Senator from calf he's to chair the

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Speaker 3: Senate Ethics Committee, former ranking member Senate Environmental Committee with

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Speaker 3: an eye on these negotiations. Now, Senator, it's great to

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Speaker 3: have you back on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 6: Well, thank you. It's always nice to be with.

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Speaker 3: You as we try to read the tea leaves. And

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Speaker 3: I know you're no stranger to deal making like this,

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Speaker 3: not to mention deadlines like this. And I wonder, Senator,

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Speaker 3: do you see a deal coming to form here in

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Speaker 3: the midst of all this noise.

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Speaker 6: I want to say yes, I very much want to

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Speaker 6: say yes. I can't say yes. I can't say no.

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Speaker 6: What I can say is that we've never had a

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Speaker 6: circumstance where you're dealing with one of the principles who

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Speaker 6: has a tenuous hold on his leadership. That's McCarthy, and

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Speaker 6: how far he can go is very unclear. And if

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Speaker 6: he insists on the budget that they put forward as

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Speaker 6: part of the deal, it's not going to happen because

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Speaker 6: that's going to result in literally millions of jobs, sass

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Speaker 6: and a recession. You know what this whole thing reminds

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Speaker 6: me of. I really mean this. If you get up

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Speaker 6: in the morning and you go brush your teeth and

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Speaker 6: wash your face, and if you're a guy, you shave,

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Speaker 6: if you're a woman, you put on your makeup and

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Speaker 6: then you you look good, and then you take a

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Speaker 6: hammer and you hit yourself in the head. That is

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Speaker 6: exactly what this is about, and it's a made up crisis.

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Speaker 6: It's baloney for Trump, the Republicans walked the line and

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Speaker 6: never said one word. Would he added more than twenty

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Speaker 6: five percent to the debt, So this is made up.

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Speaker 6: I can't predict what will happen, but I will tell

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Speaker 6: you that if something bad happens, everyone's going to know

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Speaker 6: who's to blame, period and the quote, and it's not

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Speaker 6: going to be Joe Biden.

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Speaker 3: Well, of course Republicans have different ideas about that, but

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Speaker 3: you know we're talking about it for them. But is

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Speaker 3: made up? It is Wait, it's a self imposed deadline.

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Speaker 3: Why not just eliminate it?

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Speaker 6: Well, of course we should get rid of it. Mitch

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Speaker 6: McConnell himself suggested that, look, it's very clear Trump said,

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Speaker 6: don't even think about playing with its deficit, with the

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Speaker 6: a debt limit, stealing do it? And they followed him.

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Speaker 6: Now they ask him, well, what do you think they

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Speaker 6: should do is bring the whole country down? Why? Because

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Speaker 6: I'm not president? I mean, how more ridiculous can it get?

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Speaker 6: And the hero Ronald Reagan said, you don't think about this,

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Speaker 6: you don't hurt the country. You know, this party, the

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Speaker 6: Republican party has gone to a place that is dangerous

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Speaker 6: for all of us. Again, a self inflicted wound. These

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Speaker 6: are bills that are owed for past spending, which we

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Speaker 6: can say both parties have engaged in, whether it's from

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Speaker 6: tax cuts to the wealthy or spending. So get over it,

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Speaker 6: grow up and stop it. The last point I make

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Speaker 6: that I think is important. You know we've got divided governments.

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Speaker 6: The Republicans are in charge of the budget. Do you work,

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Speaker 6: do your budget. The Senate will do its budget, they'll

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Speaker 6: go to conference, they'll resolve the differences, and we don't

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Speaker 6: have to play with disaster. This is a nightmare.

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Speaker 3: How badly? Then, do you feel Democrats wounded themselves by

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Speaker 3: not raising the debt ceiling in the last Congress. Could

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Speaker 3: have got this right out of the.

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Speaker 6: Way, should have done it, should have could have would

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Speaker 6: a m hm. But again we saw the Republicans put

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Speaker 6: up no problems for Trump, and I guess people thought,

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Speaker 6: oh maybe, maybe, maybe, you know, they get the point.

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Speaker 6: You don't fight about what you did in the past.

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Speaker 6: You fight about what you're going to spend in the future.

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Speaker 6: But that was a mistake.

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Speaker 3: Agreed, Well, that's a Democrat. The president and the Speaker

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Speaker 3: here are negotiating over everything from budget cuts to work requirements.

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Speaker 3: Are you worried about what ends up in this deal

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Speaker 3: or do you trust the president to do the right thing.

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Speaker 6: I do trust the president. I don't like the fact

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Speaker 6: that there is a negotiation. I personally liked it better

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Speaker 6: when he said he wasn't going to But it is

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Speaker 6: what it is, and he's a pragmatist, but he's not

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Speaker 6: going to give up something that you know is going

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Speaker 6: to hurt the country. I just don't see it at all.

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Speaker 6: But I just don't know if McCarthy can, you know,

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Speaker 6: could get anything done. I don't know. I think the

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Speaker 6: Sensible Center, you know, it could save the day. If

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Speaker 6: the Republicans who are who won in Biden district sign

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Speaker 6: a discharge petition, they can get this onto the floor,

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Speaker 6: do a clean death ceiling, and done with it. The

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Speaker 6: other thing is people should read the fourteenth Amendment. It's

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Speaker 6: pretty darn clear. Yeah, you know, the debt of the

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Speaker 6: United States shall not be questioned. I wish that could

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Speaker 6: be tested. I understand it's complex, but I think it

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Speaker 6: needs to be tested.

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Speaker 3: You wonder if there's a next time, certainly because this

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Speaker 3: president didn't seem posed to it. But Senator he said,

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Speaker 3: you know, this thing's going to get bound up in

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Speaker 3: court and we might not end up in a better position.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't have the time, he seems to think, to

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Speaker 3: make that work, does he.

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Speaker 6: He is concerned himself about the time to test the fourteenth.

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Speaker 6: But it's something that you know, people read the Second Amendment.

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Speaker 6: Who thinks, you know, guns can be every place? They

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Speaker 6: read the Second Amendment that way. If you read the

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Speaker 6: fourteenth Amendment in the same spirit, you could see that,

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Speaker 6: you know, the debt should not be questioned period, end

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Speaker 6: of quote, whatever it is. We cannot play games with

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Speaker 6: this thing. So this this is coming to a head again.

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Speaker 6: I would reiterate, after you know, three years of Trump

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Speaker 6: lifting the ceiling without any problems. I think Democrats were

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Speaker 6: lulled into the feeling that maybe Republicans wouldn't play games.

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Speaker 6: But they're so obvious. You know, they don't play games

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Speaker 6: when it's a Republican president. They blaze play games when

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Speaker 6: it's a Democratic president. It's outrageous, it's ridiculous. It's not

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Speaker 6: the Republican party I grew up with. Let me put

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Speaker 6: it that.

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Speaker 3: Way, Well, is it the Democratic party? You grew up

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Speaker 3: with as well. And I ask you that because we're

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Speaker 3: seeing both men here. If we really cook this down

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Speaker 3: to the President and the Speaker, they're being pushed by

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Speaker 3: the various wings of their own parties, and the President's

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Speaker 3: being threatened by progressives to not go ahead and do this,

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Speaker 3: do not agree to additional work requirements, for instance, do

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Speaker 3: not cut spending, because they're not going to vote for

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Speaker 3: this particular deal. So we end up with a center

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Speaker 3: potentially making this decision. Yes, if this is going to pass,

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Speaker 3: it has to come through the center.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and I think there are people in the Democratic

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Speaker 6: Party who won't go for anything because there's still so

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Speaker 6: strongly this should be a clean death feeling, and there

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Speaker 6: are others that say we need to be pragmatic. So yeah,

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Speaker 6: I think the sensible center will come together, hopefully come together.

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Speaker 6: Now when I say that, i'm talking about nine Republicans

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Speaker 6: that's who they have that's in the sense to enter,

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Speaker 6: and the vast majority of Democrats. So yeah, it's complicated,

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Speaker 6: it's nuanced. The President's not going to do anything that's

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Speaker 6: going to hurt anybody. But the whole thing is stupid,

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Speaker 6: it's annoying, it's ridiculous, It's crazy. It's again. It's like

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Speaker 6: looking in the mirror sayings, yeah, it looks nice, but

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Speaker 6: here's a hammer hit myself of the head. That's exactly

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Speaker 6: what you know. These people are doing just for politics,

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Speaker 6: you know, to make somebody look lousy or whatever. I'm

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Speaker 6: so done with it. Well, and we need to deal

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Speaker 6: with it in a sensible way when this is passed.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure your opinions are informed by the lessons of

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Speaker 3: twenty eleven, and I wonder, when you step back here,

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Speaker 3: can you tell us is it even possible to tell

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Speaker 3: our listeners here how this is going to end.

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Speaker 6: I think it's going to end eventually in the right way,

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Speaker 6: and the ceiling will be lifted. I don't know how

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Speaker 6: long that will take. I do feel in my heart

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Speaker 6: that if the Republicans walk away from a sensible offer

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Speaker 6: and that's the end of it, we know the impact.

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Speaker 6: It's going to be ugly. It's going to be horrifying,

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Speaker 6: and they'll get the blame for it. And after that,

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Speaker 6: if the President has to say, you know, I'm going

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Speaker 6: to invoke the fourteenth if he has to go that route,

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Speaker 6: he may have to go that route. But I just

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Speaker 6: believe in my heart again that nine Republicans could save

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Speaker 6: the day if they choose to do so.

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Speaker 3: Barbara Boxer, the former Democratic Senator from California, getting the

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Speaker 3: train started here for us on Bloomberg's sound on, we

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Speaker 3: thank you, Senator for the insights. As we assemble the

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Speaker 3: panel for their take on this. We'll do a quick

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Speaker 3: swing here with Rick and Jennie and we'll dig into

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Speaker 3: this in just a moment a little bit deeper here

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Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo Bloomberg Politics contributors. What's your

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Speaker 3: thought here, Genie, to hear from a California Democrat acknowledging

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Speaker 3: that the path the solution must come through the center.

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Speaker 3: Does that give you a sense that everyone's view of

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Speaker 3: this has been checked somewhat in the past couple weeks.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I certainly hope so, and I hope

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Speaker 7: she is right. You know, I just have an enormous

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Speaker 7: number of questions about the timing here and can they

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Speaker 7: in fact get this through the center. You know, I

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Speaker 7: agree with her on the discharge petition. I am less

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Speaker 7: confident on the fourteenth Amendment. Nothing about that amendment is

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Speaker 7: clear in the writing of it that it would pass

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Speaker 7: through this Supreme Court. So I think they do need

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Speaker 7: to get it through the center. But time is of

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Speaker 7: the essence unless they get a short term deal and

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Speaker 7: then take some time to work on this. And McCarthy

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Speaker 7: sounded very negative about Democrats as he entered Capital today.

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Speaker 3: Well, yes, and a headline just crossed the terminal here

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Speaker 3: as the House Speaker is talking to reporters Rick. The

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Speaker 3: headline is, decisions have to start being made. We do

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Speaker 3: not have a deal yet. This is the posturing before

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Speaker 3: the meeting.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, obviously posturing before the meeting, but it's been posturing

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Speaker 8: every day for the last you know, two weeks, and

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Speaker 8: and and look, I mean, you know, it's one thing

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Speaker 8: to play the public game. I understand everything you know

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Speaker 8: that's a negotiation has to be played out in the

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Speaker 8: public domain. But this idea that somehow we can do

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Speaker 8: it in a vacuum and not effect markets, not affect

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Speaker 8: other members. I mean, it's only getting worse rather than better.

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Speaker 8: I mean, time is not their friend, Their public comments

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Speaker 8: are not their friend. Both Biden and and and McCarthy

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Speaker 8: I think have been culpable in this. And what they

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Speaker 8: need to do is shut up and get a deal done.

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Speaker 3: Here here on the lack of friends in Washington. We'll

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Speaker 3: see if the markets feel the same way more with

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Speaker 3: Rick and Genie coming up.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: Tune and half, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 3: It's on to South Carolina. At least that's the case

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Speaker 3: for Senator Tim Scott. He's in. We knew that he

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Speaker 3: laid the paperwork last week, but the big announcement came

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Speaker 3: this morning.

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Speaker 6: He'd give a warm low country welcome.

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Speaker 3: So the man I am blessed to call Uncle Timmy.

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Speaker 1: You're United States Senator Tim Scott.

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Speaker 3: His nephew there for the big introduction. How about the

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Speaker 3: theatric year thereby though, ladies and gentleman, Oh Calton, who

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Speaker 3: all right? The crowd in place there as the presidential

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Speaker 3: campaign becomes official, thank you wow. One more for Republicans

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Speaker 3: a field of course that Donald Trump is dominating right now.

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Speaker 3: Whoa god bless and as he danced his way across

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Speaker 3: the stage. There a lot of us were wondering, where's

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Speaker 3: the governor from Florida can announce?

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Speaker 1: All right, thank you, thank you, thank you.

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Speaker 3: I was I can't dance, you know that. I wouldn't

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Speaker 3: have said that. Actually, I mean, I've seen Donald Trump dance.

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Speaker 3: And one of the biggest news items there was the

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Speaker 3: endorsement forget this being a race that's been decided, Ladies

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Speaker 3: and gentlemen.

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Speaker 4: My name is John Thune.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I come from the other South state, John

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Speaker 3: dakotain there to make the introduction and the endorsement here

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Speaker 3: in the presidential campaign. And we reassemble our panel for

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Speaker 3: their take on all of this. Geenie Shanzano and Rick

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Speaker 3: Davis are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors, And Rick, you

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Speaker 3: know what it means to run a presidential campaign. Does

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Speaker 3: Tim Scott think he can win?

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Speaker 8: Well, I think he thinks it's worth entering, and he's

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Speaker 8: got the resources, and I think that's enough for now.

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Speaker 8: Not every presidential candidate has a pathway to succeed. I've

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Speaker 8: certainly been on those campaigns, and and yet, you know,

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Speaker 8: you don't know what's going to happen in the process.

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Speaker 8: The process dictates it, and so he's got a lot

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Speaker 8: of appeal to caucus goers in Iowa. His his his

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Speaker 8: evangelicalism and conservatism will play well there. Obviously, his home

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Speaker 8: base in South Carolina is really important, and so he

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Speaker 8: starts with really a much better prospect than most other

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Speaker 8: candidates in the field right now. And so, uh yeah,

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Speaker 8: I think it's great that he's in it. I think

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Speaker 8: it shows well for the Republican Party. His optimism and

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Speaker 8: positive nature is I think going to be welcome in

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Speaker 8: a in a in a campaign right now that's really

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Speaker 8: been defined by Donald Trump and you know, his darkness

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Speaker 8: and his grievances.

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Speaker 3: So it's a great contrast to that end. The latest

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Speaker 3: we have here is Harvard Harris poll came out Friday,

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Speaker 3: Genie Trump fifty eight to Santus sixteen, Pence four, Hailey four,

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Speaker 3: Ramuswanty four, and a guy named Tim Scott at one percent.

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Speaker 3: So this will be a story of name recognition for

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Speaker 3: the time being.

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Speaker 7: It will, and I think that's why Donald Trump in

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Speaker 7: a you know, sort of about face, he's very excited

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Speaker 7: about Tim Scott entering this race. He says Tim Scott's

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Speaker 7: a big step up from run to Sanctimonius, who is

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Speaker 7: totally unelectable. Why would he ever say that, because, of

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Speaker 7: course Tim Scott's in the single digits and run to

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Speaker 7: Sanctmonius is not. And of course because the more people

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Speaker 7: in this field, the better off for Donald Trump. And

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Speaker 7: he knows that. So you know, he's very, very hostile

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Speaker 7: towards ron De Santis. But Tim Scott, he's got his support.

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Speaker 7: He even talked about doing a big deal on opportunities

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Speaker 7: owe to Tim Scott. So you know, he's even gonna

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Speaker 7: point some policy achievements for Tim Scott, so he's helping

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Speaker 7: out a little bit.

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Speaker 3: He retruthed it just two hours ago. I keep Genie

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Speaker 3: logged in here. Rick. Indeed, good luck to Senator Tim

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Speaker 3: Scott and entering the Republican presidential primary race. He gives

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Speaker 3: the knocked on Ronda Santis and again good luck Tim

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Speaker 3: exclamation point. We don't have a potential ticket in the

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Speaker 3: works here, do we. I don't know.

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Speaker 8: I mean, it was kind of the same reaction to

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Speaker 8: a few others who have gotten in. Nikki Haley got

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Speaker 8: a relatively warm Maybe it's just South Carolina. He doesn't

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Speaker 8: want to upset any of those voters. Of early primary.

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Speaker 8: But I do think it's relevant that John Thune, number

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Speaker 8: two in the leadership of the Senate, came down to

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Speaker 8: Charleston to have this endorsement. There aren't very many senators

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Speaker 8: in this race right now, which is quite unusual, since

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Speaker 8: most senators who either are not in you know, some

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Speaker 8: kind of rehab or imprisonment think they're candidates for president.

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Speaker 3: And so, you know, I think this is telling.

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Speaker 8: That one of the senior members of the leadership came

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Speaker 8: down there and have indorsed him.

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Speaker 3: So but what was that Rick? Was he just inoculating

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Speaker 3: himself against the Trump backlash? Should he not endorse Donald Trump?

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Speaker 7: No?

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Speaker 8: I think it's actually probably a lot of senators are

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Speaker 8: looking at this going we've got to do something to

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Speaker 8: change the narrative around the Republican Party is Donald Trump?

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Speaker 8: And I think that they like and trust Tim Scott.

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Speaker 8: He's been a good partner in the Republican Caucus in

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Speaker 8: the Senate, and I don't imagine this will be the

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Speaker 8: only United States Senator on the Republican side to endorse

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Speaker 8: Tim Scott. But I think it's certainly a good indication

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Speaker 8: that leadership has been talking about.

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Speaker 3: Him, and of course on Wednesday, at least that's what

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Speaker 3: we're hearing, Genie. Ron DeSantis will make it official with

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Speaker 3: paperwork and some kind of I don't know if it's

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Speaker 3: a written announcement or a video. He's not going to

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Speaker 3: hold the big party, the big rally until next week.

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Speaker 3: Both of these guys, while they're getting some news coverage here,

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Speaker 3: run the risk of just very poor timing. With the

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Speaker 3: potential of a debt ceiling deal or not deal, it's

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Speaker 3: going to suck all the oxygen out of the room.

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Speaker 3: Is this the worst week to announce a presidential campaign?

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Speaker 7: It's a pretty tough week. But then again, you know,

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Speaker 7: there is so much news being made coming out of Washington.

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Speaker 7: It's hard to think of a week in which they

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Speaker 7: may not be fighting with other bigger stories. And you know,

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Speaker 7: and I think Ron DeSantis had some good news in

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Speaker 7: the last couple of days. One was Hal Lambert said

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Speaker 7: he was going to go for DeSantis and abandoned Trump,

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Speaker 7: which of course got Trump's hire. He of course is

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Speaker 7: the founder of a point Bridge Capital who oversees MAGA ETF.

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Speaker 7: And the other one was that we also heard that

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Speaker 7: Robert Bigelow is supporting Ron de Santis, so he's got

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Speaker 7: some big time donors there. Obviously Trump still has, you know,

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Speaker 7: raising huge amounts of money, but you know, DeSantis does

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Speaker 7: have a play here. I think the biggest question I

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Speaker 7: have is, while these people keep saying Trump isn't electable

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Speaker 7: in the Purple States, and DeSantis has said that he is,

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Speaker 7: I'm not sure given how really really draconian some of

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Speaker 7: his Florida policies are beginning with the Florida six Weeks

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Speaker 7: on abortion, which Trump even seems more moderate than that.

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Speaker 7: So I think he could, you know, help himself in

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Speaker 7: the primery at some of these policies, but I'm not

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Speaker 7: so certain that you know, I can beat Trump and

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Speaker 7: beat Biden in particular, is a winning message at this point.

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Speaker 3: Pretty big news today the naacp issuing a warning, a

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Speaker 3: travel advisory telling its members to avoid the state of

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Speaker 3: Florida because of Desantia's policies. Rick. That's quite a tee

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Speaker 3: up for a campaign announcement.

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Speaker 1: Isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Obviously DeSantis has put himself in the middle of the

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Speaker 8: public debate about the war on woke that he's fighting,

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Speaker 8: and I think that's going to have ramifications obviously like

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Speaker 8: this pretty smart to get out ahead of his announcement

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Speaker 8: and sort of, you know, grab some headlines before DeSantis

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Speaker 8: gets in this race formally. But at the end of

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Speaker 8: the day, he's hitched his wagon to that issue set

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Speaker 8: and he's going to ride it as far as it goes.

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Speaker 8: And if it doesn't go very far, tough luck.

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Speaker 3: Wow, we're just getting started. It's only Monday. Tim Scott

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Speaker 3: is in Ron DeSantis next, and of course you'll be

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Speaker 3: hearing about them both throughout the week here on sound

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Speaker 3: On with analysis from our panel. Many thanks, Rick Davis

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Speaker 3: and Jeanie Shanzino.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Nice to see Kaylee lines

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Speaker 3: coming off the weekend. The sun comes up somehow every day, Kaylee,

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Speaker 3: even without a debt ceiling deal. But today is going

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Speaker 3: to be an important one. It already is. Of course,

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Speaker 3: we've got the big meeting and how it became one

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Speaker 3: on one. It does make you wonder why it wasn't

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Speaker 3: that way already with Kevin McCarthy and Joe Biden. They're

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Speaker 3: going to talk at five point thirty Eastern time. And

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Speaker 3: as we've seen with each of these meetings, the posturing

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Speaker 3: has already begun.

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Speaker 9: It has.

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Speaker 10: I mean we've had House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaking with

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Speaker 10: reporters multiple times already today. Yes, and the latest line

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Speaker 10: out of him, I think we can make it all

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Speaker 10: happened by the debt deadline.

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Speaker 3: I think furnative of course would not be acceptable, right,

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Speaker 3: but not exactly feeling the love for you either. Is

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Speaker 3: Netan McCarthy in the corridors of the Capital a short

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Speaker 3: time ago.

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Speaker 9: The Democrats, since they took the majority, has been addicted.

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Speaker 3: To spending and that's going to stop.

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Speaker 2: We're going to spend less than we.

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Speaker 5: Spent last year.

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Speaker 9: And it's very hard to get them off that spending

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Speaker 9: for you that they're.

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Speaker 3: Addicted to, addicted to spending. But that comes after President

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Speaker 3: Biden told a room full of the G seven that

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Speaker 3: he's willing to cut spending. Here's what he said in here.

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Speaker 4: We are willing to cut spending as well as Ray's

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Speaker 4: revenue so people start paying their fair share revenue.

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Speaker 3: Part might be a problem.

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Speaker 10: Well, Speaker McCarthy himself has said that they will not

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Speaker 10: be doing that. They will not sign anything that raises taxes,

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Speaker 10: which kind of really gets down to this whole point, Joe,

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Speaker 10: is that this is the nitty gritty details that they

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Speaker 10: are now arguing over the size and scope of the

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Speaker 10: spending cuts. Where the spending is getting cut, for what

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Speaker 10: duration will spending be capped. Those are the conversations I

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Speaker 10: would imagine have been happening on behalf of those negotiating

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Speaker 10: for Team Speaker and Team white House, which was still

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Speaker 10: underway this morning, and probably what it's going to come

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Speaker 10: down to when you actually get the two principles in

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Speaker 10: the room later on today. I will say that we

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Speaker 10: have just seen a slow, slow narrowing of the voices

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Speaker 10: in this conversation. It was last week, all right, it's

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Speaker 10: just the Speaker team in the White House team forgetting

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Speaker 10: Schumer and McConnell and Jeffries. It's just Speaker and President.

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Speaker 10: And now really it's just Speaker and President.

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Speaker 3: I figured you said something when you yesterday. Can we

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Speaker 3: talk about that on the air. It wasn't a news event.

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Speaker 3: It's a fair game. Everyone's in the wild here but yeah,

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Speaker 3: you're out there having a run on the National Mall.

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Speaker 10: And welcome my dog. Just kind of look over to

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Speaker 10: the right and I go, oh, hey, mister speaker, how

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Speaker 10: you doing today? And he said good, thanks, And I said,

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Speaker 10: mister speaker, how are dead ceiling talks going? And he

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Speaker 10: did if I knew how to describe the motion, but

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Speaker 10: just kind of a tilting of the hand, and he goes, so, so.

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Speaker 3: All right, did you identify yourself as a news person

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Speaker 3: or you were just concerned citizen.

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Speaker 10: I was a concerned citizen walking my dog. I mean

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Speaker 10: the entire duration of the interaction was ten seconds.

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Speaker 3: But that's, I don't know, like the most unguarded comment

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Speaker 3: we've heard so far. Yeah, sounds pretty honest.

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Speaker 10: Is that for a nice Saturday morning stroll? Lovely weather?

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Speaker 3: Tell him Mick mulvaney sent you. Hey, Mick, welcome back.

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Speaker 3: Mick mulvaney, the former OMB director, former acting White House

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Speaker 3: Chief of Staff, former member of Congress, is with us

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Speaker 3: on the line, he joins us right around this time

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Speaker 3: each week, Uh, Mick, I have to admit when when

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Speaker 3: I look down, I said, Mick Mulvaney's back on that

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00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: means we lost another week. This is going to be

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Speaker 3: a similar conversation I'm guessing to the one we had

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Speaker 3: a week ago today. What's changed?

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Speaker 9: Time flies when you're having fun, I guess.

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Speaker 7: So.

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Speaker 9: I also had a chance to talk to Kevin yesterday,

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Speaker 9: not on the national ball, for a little bit more

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Speaker 9: than ten seconds.

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Speaker 11: But not much more.

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Speaker 9: N what what's happening? And he said, hey, I got

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Speaker 9: to talk to the president. I said, why he goes

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Speaker 9: because the talks with his team went backwards. He said.

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Speaker 9: Before the President left, he said exactly what you just

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Speaker 9: played in the clip, which is he was okay with

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Speaker 9: some level of reduced spending. And he said, we got

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Speaker 9: in a room for these folks, and I apologize. I'm

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Speaker 9: at the Tim Scott event, so I'm standing out in

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Speaker 9: front of a large crowds and I apologize to the

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Speaker 9: background noise. When the President left the country and his

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Speaker 9: team took over, their first bid was an increase in spending,

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Speaker 9: so it seemed like it was a complete waste of time.

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Speaker 9: And he was very eager to get back to talk

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Speaker 9: to the president one on one, which is what I

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Speaker 9: think should should have been happening from the very get go.

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Speaker 10: I just have to pause the debt ceiling conversation for

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Speaker 10: a moment to just reiterate that you are currently in

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Speaker 10: South Carolina at the Tim Scott event. He of course

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Speaker 10: just formally threw his hat in the ring for the presidency.

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Speaker 10: Is that how you're back in in twenty twenty four?

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Speaker 10: Make why are you there?

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Speaker 11: No, I'm here to cover. I'm friends with all these folks.

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Speaker 9: Keep in mind, I served with Tim Tim and I

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Speaker 9: go go back ten years that Nikky was my governor,

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Speaker 9: Nikki Haley. I served with Londatus. More importantly, played on

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Speaker 9: the baseball team with Ron DeSantis Mike pens and I

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Speaker 9: serve both in the House together and in the White House.

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Speaker 9: So all these folks are my friends, and you don't

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Speaker 9: typically pick amongst your friends.

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Speaker 1: So I have.

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Speaker 9: What I've done is I told all of them I'd

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Speaker 9: be more than happy to help them get up to

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Speaker 9: speed on fiscal issues, budgetary issues, talk to their teams

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Speaker 9: and so forth, and help them on policy. But I'm

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Speaker 9: I'm not in the game anymore of endorsing or unendorsing candidates.

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Speaker 3: Got it all right? That means you're gonna phone us

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Speaker 3: from all of these announcements, I bet, But MITI hope.

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Speaker 3: So ye, Donald Trump hit the truth social on this

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Speaker 3: one very friendly message, good luck, good luck to Senator

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Speaker 3: Tim Scott in entering the Republican presidential primary race. He

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Speaker 3: takes a rib shot at Ron da sanctimonious as I

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Speaker 3: read here, who he says is totally unelectable. But he says,

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Speaker 3: I got opportunity zones done with Tim, a big deal

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Speaker 3: that has been highly successful. Good luck Tim exclamation point.

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Speaker 3: Is he writing that because Tim Scott has one percent

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Speaker 3: or because he could potentially be the second half of

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Speaker 3: a presidential ticket.

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Speaker 9: No, I can guarantee you it's absolutely the first half

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Speaker 9: of that question. Okay, does not perceive him as a threat,

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Speaker 9: and that's why he's saying no, says, look, Ron Desanti,

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Speaker 9: this is the lead challenger right now. There's no questions

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Speaker 9: getting all of Trump's attention, and we'll continue to do

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Speaker 9: so until he's no longer a threat. Keep in mind,

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Speaker 9: this is what Trump did that I could do that

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Speaker 9: at sixteen right started I think after Jeb Bush because

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Speaker 9: everybody perceived him as being the lead challenger. Then when

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Speaker 9: Jeb was out of the raid, he moved on to

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Speaker 9: whoever the next person was in line, and everybody, I think,

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Speaker 9: over the course of the campaign sort of felt his ire.

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Speaker 9: I expect the same thing to happen here. I don't

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Speaker 9: believe that Tim Scott is running for vice president. I've

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Speaker 9: heard some people ask for that today, and I don't

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Speaker 9: think he'd be interested in being in Trump's vice president.

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Speaker 9: So no, I think that Trump does what he does,

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Speaker 9: which is he says nice things about people that he

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Speaker 9: doesn't think can threatning.

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Speaker 10: Going to get back to the matter at hands here, Yeah,

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Speaker 10: I'm just reading the wire right now. Mack of the

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Speaker 10: headlines continuing to cross from Speaker McCarthy saying we can

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Speaker 10: get a deal done tonight. We can get a deal

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Speaker 10: done tomorrow, but they need to have an agreement on

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Speaker 10: the debt limit this week. When you spoke with him briefly,

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Speaker 10: did he give you a sense of his confidence in

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Speaker 10: the timeline, because the clock is sticking.

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Speaker 9: If I'd engage his confidence, I think it would be

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Speaker 9: dependent on the president. Keep in mind, I know the

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Speaker 9: Republics keep talking about this, but there's a reason for that,

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Speaker 9: which is they have actually passed a bill. And ordinarily,

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Speaker 9: what would happen if things were working properly in Washington,

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Speaker 9: is that the senathym would take up that film. They

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Speaker 9: either amended or they passed their own bill, and then

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Speaker 9: they go to conference. This is the old schoolhouse frocks

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Speaker 9: thing we used to see when we were a kids.

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Speaker 11: I'm just a bill.

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Speaker 9: If I'm only a bill, you don't do it this

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Speaker 9: way unless you're willing to sort of move quickly towards

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Speaker 9: a deal. And I don't think he thinks that Biden

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Speaker 9: is ready to do that. Here's why I think Kevin

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Speaker 9: feels like he has held up his end of the bargain.

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Speaker 9: He got his extreme right wing on board with a

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Speaker 9: package that nobody thought he could pass. No one thought

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Speaker 9: he could pass any package to raise the debt feeling,

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Speaker 9: but he did. Now, I think if you ask Kevin

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Speaker 9: and el Kander, what he's worried about is he doesn't

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Speaker 9: think that by has control over his progressive way in

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Speaker 9: the same way that Kevin is working with his right line.

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Speaker 9: And if Biden is not willing to upset or at

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Speaker 9: least work a little bit against his extreme left wings,

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Speaker 9: it may be more difficult to get a deal. I

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Speaker 9: think that is what's keeping people from being more confident

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Speaker 9: than they are right now.

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Speaker 3: So based on what we know here, Mick, I'm just

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Speaker 3: curious your gut check. The headlines were we can get

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Speaker 3: a deal tonight, we can get a deal tomorrow, okay,

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Speaker 3: next forty eight hours, next twenty four to forty eight hours,

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Speaker 3: and must have something on the debt limit this week.

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Speaker 3: I think he just outlined the extreme parameters, because if

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Speaker 3: they don't have a debt limit deal this week, we're

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Speaker 3: in bigger trouble than we thought. If he thinks we

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Speaker 3: can get a deal tonight, is he projecting there to

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Speaker 3: suggest that he's open minded or does he actually believe that,

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Speaker 3: because if that's the case, they're a lot closer than

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Speaker 3: most people think.

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Speaker 9: I think it's just that he's open minded. I think

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Speaker 9: he's gone there in good faith. They've passed their bill.

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Speaker 9: He's looking for some sort of counter from the Democrats,

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Speaker 9: and I don't think he's gotten that yet.

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Speaker 11: Again, I think he.

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Speaker 9: Thought he had made progress with the president before the

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Speaker 9: President left for Japan, and then it was sort of

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Speaker 9: a lost weekend when the staff took over. By the way,

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Speaker 9: that's not unusual. A lot of times staff has their

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Speaker 9: own sort of agendas, And I know that sounds crazy

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Speaker 9: that if a staff person have a agenda different than

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Speaker 9: a president but that is absolutely positively the case in

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Speaker 9: every administration. So I think Kevin looks at it like

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Speaker 9: we lost a couple of days, like to get a

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Speaker 9: deal in the next couple of days if we can.

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Speaker 9: But that comes back that Joe jo first date is

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Speaker 9: a hard date or is it just sort of the

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Speaker 9: date that the Treasury through out there to sort of

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Speaker 9: force them to a debone.

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Speaker 10: Well, we just got another headline out of the Speaker

650
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Speaker 10: saying we are going to work together and solve this problem.

651
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Speaker 10: But when he says this, I'm assuming he's meaning working

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Speaker 10: together with the president really the two parties that are

653
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 10: going to be in the room later today. But we

654
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,479
Speaker 10: know make that even once they figure it out between

655
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 10: the two of them, he still has to take it

656
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 10: back and resell a deal to his caucus. I mean,

657
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 10: you mentioned that he did manage to get a bill

658
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 10: through the House of Representatives already. Obviously, whatever they work out,

659
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 10: whatever compromise they make, is going to be different looking

660
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 10: than that original package. Do you think the Speaker really

661
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 10: has a sense of the whip count and how many

662
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 10: Republicans he's going to be able to keep in line

663
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 10: when he has to compromise.

664
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 9: I think Kevin knows exactly how many votes he's got.

665
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 9: I think the I think did he.

666
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 10: Share that with you?

667
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 8: You got a number?

668
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 9: I did not, did not ask him that, But I

669
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 9: will tell you it's god a conversation with a senator

670
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 9: here at the South Caron event, we both said the

671
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 9: same thing, which is, this bill requires sixty votes in

672
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 9: the Senate period. End of story. It's always by partis

673
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 9: and it has to be by parts. It's why the

674
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 9: Republicans got the bounced budget deals in the nineteen ninety

675
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 9: It's why they got a question in two thousands. It's

676
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 9: why the Democrats got more spending with Trump and opposite

677
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 9: twenty seventy in twenty ninety. This is always a deal,

678
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 9: and it always takes sixty votes in the Senate, which

679
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 9: means it's going to lose some folks in the House

680
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 9: on both sides. It just is you can't. You're not

681
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 9: going to have a bill passed in the Senate with

682
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 9: you know, ten or fifteen Republicans and they get every

683
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 9: single republic on the House. That's not how it works.

684
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 9: But I think the question that becomes is, you know,

685
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,919
Speaker 9: Ken Kent, can the left get their folks in life,

686
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 9: because I think Biden needs to recognize that as well,

687
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 9: that he's going to have to upset some folks on

688
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 9: his extreme left if he's going to cut a deal

689
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 9: that can get sixty votes in the Senate.

690
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 3: What is this going to come down to, Mick? Is

691
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 3: it the extent of cuts, the size of the cuts,

692
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 3: or the duration because we're hearing a lot more about

693
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 3: timeline now. The White House wants a two year deal,

694
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy wants ten years. We've heard suggestions that they

695
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 3: come down to five. But how much is the duration

696
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: of problem?

697
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 9: I think that's one of the beauties in what the

698
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 9: House did, And I know I'm saying that as a Republican,

699
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 9: but then I don't know if they did this on purpose,

700
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 9: but they put a lot of different levers into the discussion.

701
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 9: So there is no one thing you can get on

702
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 9: one and give on another. Right, so it's not just

703
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 9: one thing you could get. Your requirements could change a

704
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 9: little bit. The spending reduction amount could change, a little bit,

705
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 9: the time for the spending change a little bit, The

706
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 9: extension or the raising of the cap could change a

707
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 9: little bit. So you've had a multi variable equation, which

708
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,919
Speaker 9: is smart if you're trying to get to a deal,

709
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 9: because if the Democrats come in and say, look, we

710
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 9: can't do X, that's fine, but you have to give

711
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 9: us more on why. And there's many there's a lot

712
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 9: of different topics on the table which should help them

713
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 9: get to a deal.

714
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 10: Meg, were really lucky to be able to talk with

715
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 10: you about this today. We're even luckier that as we're

716
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 10: talking with you, were continually getting headlines out of Speaker

717
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 10: McCarthy and what he just said I would love to

718
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 10: get your reaction to he says he is not concerned

719
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 10: about losing his speakership.

720
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 4: Should he be?

721
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 9: Meck No, In fact, I did ask him that last night,

722
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 9: and I think he said the exact same thing. I

723
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 9: think I'm going to put my old Freedom Caucus head

724
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 9: on on. Granted, today's Freedom Caucus is not your grandfather's

725
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 9: Streedham Caucus, so I can't pretend to speak for the group.

726
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 9: But a lot of the difficulties that the right wing

727
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 9: of the party had with the leadership before Kevin was

728
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 9: that they didn't feel like they would be listened to

729
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 9: and that they were not valued. We're not contributing to

730
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 9: the discussion. I really don't think Kevin has that same

731
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 9: problem right now, even if he does lose a couple

732
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 9: of votes on a final vote, I don't think his

733
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 9: speakership is in peril because people realize Republicans ress. He's

734
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 9: done a pretty good job. He got a bill pass

735
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 9: to raise the dead sealing, which nobody thought was possible.

736
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 9: He got huge by partisan support for his China Commission,

737
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 9: which nobody thought possible. He got elected, which most people

738
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 9: didn't think were possible for a period of time. So

739
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 9: now I think the temperature has gone down a little bit.

740
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 9: That's not to say it can't change in a hurry

741
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 9: in Washington, DC. But I think the last thing that

742
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 9: anybody's worried about right now is Kevin we're losing a speakership.

743
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 9: I think that's probably an accurate statement.

744
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 3: So that's changed quite a bit. As a matter of fact,

745
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 3: that would suggest that this process actually helped him galvanize

746
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 3: support along the way. But what happens if they don't

747
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 3: like what he turns up with here?

748
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 9: That's why I said the temperature can change, Yeah, but

749
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 9: that a lot of the rebellion was born out of

750
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 9: a mistrust. You remember that language coming out of the election.

751
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 9: We don't trust Kevin et cetera, et cetera. Right, those

752
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,760
Speaker 9: types of things that can be overcome with proper management,

753
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 9: proper engagement, and just treating people, you know, the right way. So, uh,

754
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:06,879
Speaker 9: sensible right wingers recognize they're not going to get their

755
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 9: way entirely in Washington, d C. When they only control

756
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 9: a five hope majority in the House. They don't have

757
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 9: a Senate and the White House. So that is that sensible.

758
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 9: It's either right wing cover everybody.

759
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 4: No.

760
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 9: But there was a lot of folks in there who

761
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 9: realize that, you know, they might get something at the

762
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 9: end of the day that they didn't they can't vote for,

763
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 9: but at least they moved the ball in the right

764
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 9: direction and that should be good enough for a lot

765
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 9: of them.

766
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: Joining us from South Carolina, Mick mulvaney, thank you Mix

767
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,439
Speaker 3: for the insights. As always, we talked to him around

768
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 3: this time every week. The former OMB director, former everything

769
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 3: huge job you can have in Washington, former of Acting

770
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 3: White House Chief and staff, former member of Congress, regaling

771
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 3: us reminding us of the great school House Rock on

772
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 3: this Monday in Washington, so much to learn on Saturday mornings,

773
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 3: we just didn't realize that.

774
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 11: I'm just up Vill. Yes, I'm only up Ville, and

775
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 11: I'm sitting here on Capitol here.

776
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 3: With Kenny Lines. I'm Joe Matthew Long, joined by Neil

777
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 3: Bradley next on the Fastest Show in Politics.

778
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 11: It's a long, long wait once I'm sitting Incomemmittee, but I.

779
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 3: Know I'll be all laws.

780
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

781
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

782
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,320
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg

783
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 2: Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

784
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 3: There's been several references through the course of the program

785
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 3: about how calm Wall Street is about this whole debt

786
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 3: sealing matter, because everyone seems to think that it's going

787
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 3: to work out fine. But of course, uh, Corporate America

788
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: is concerned. Certainly the banking sector is concerned. Kaylee, you

789
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 3: ran it at Jamie Diamond last week, who made that

790
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 3: pretty clear. You're running into a lot of people here

791
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 3: in Washington, but of course that's why you're here. But

792
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 3: in all seriousness, there have been a lot of questions

793
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 3: about when does the letter come from the heads of

794
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 3: you know, the the biggest, the fifty biggest companies in

795
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 3: America to try to get this done. And I'm not

796
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 3: sure we're going to get something like that, but this

797
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 3: is very real outside of the Beltway, and the next

798
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 3: conversation that we're going to have should bring that home

799
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 3: for us.

800
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 11: Yeah.

801
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 10: I mean, when we hear Treasury Secretary Jannet Yellen or

802
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 10: President Biden or FED Chair Jerome Powell talking about how

803
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 10: a default would have serious or catastrophic to use their language,

804
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 10: economic consequences, that is very real. And when we talk

805
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 10: about that consequence, it will be born by American business.

806
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 10: At the end of the day, we're talking about the

807
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 10: borrowing costs for taking out loans. It would impact funding,

808
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 10: It would have ripple effects across the US economy in

809
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 10: theory that all aspects of business would feel in some way.

810
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 3: This is why the Chamber of Commerce even floated the idea,

811
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 3: in fact, urged the President to consider using the fourteenth Amendment.

812
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 3: And I think that we're beyond that point now based

813
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 3: on what the President has said. Right, he's not going there.

814
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 10: He hasn't entirely ruled it out, but he has said

815
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 10: alluded to the fact many times that it would likely

816
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 10: face a legal challenge, So it doesn't seem like the

817
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 10: President is convinced that that is a viable alternative in

818
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 10: this scenario.

819
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 3: That that sport, and then you're still default in the end,

820
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 3: right if she goes wrong?

821
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 10: Right exactly.

822
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 3: Jennet Yellen was reiterating that message on Sunday Morning TV.

823
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 3: And we're glad to be joined by Neil Bradley, the

824
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 3: executive vice president, chief policy officer, and head of Strategic

825
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 3: Advocacy for the US Chamber of Commerce. Neil, it's great

826
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:28,280
Speaker 3: to have you with us. Are you hoping the President

827
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 3: keeps the fourteenth Amendment on the table?

828
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 11: Joe, great to be with you. No, we actually don't

829
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 11: think the fourteenth Amendment is a viable option. We don't

830
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 11: believe that that's what the fourteenth Amendment says. We think

831
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 11: if the administration tried to invoke the fourteenth Amendment, it

832
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 11: would have economic consequences almost as calamitous, if not as calamitous,

833
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 11: as an actual default itself. So really, the only resolution

834
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 11: here is for a bipartisan agreement to be reached between

835
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 11: the Speaker and the President that and for Congress to

836
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 11: list to that ceiling. There's no magic off ramp here,

837
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 11: and certainly the fourteenth Amendment would not work.

838
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 10: And that does seem to be what the administration, or

839
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 10: at least the President also maybe believes. He might not

840
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 10: be questioning his authority to do so, but just whether

841
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 10: or not it would actually be effective in accomplishing what

842
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 10: is intended. So that would suggest that it really does

843
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 10: come down to getting a deal done. We'll see if

844
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 10: we get progress Neil on that front today when they meet.

845
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 10: The President meets with Speaker McCarthy in about three hours

846
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 10: from now, when we talk about the contours of what

847
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 10: that deal looks like. What are you hearing from the

848
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 10: business community, What do they want to see in that deal?

849
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 11: Well, I think we expect to see kind of three

850
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 11: central elements. The first of which is we're sending unspent

851
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 11: COVID money. I don't think there's hardly anyone who objects

852
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,879
Speaker 11: to back these days, and that alone would save close

853
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 11: to sixty billion dollars. The second is some type of

854
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 11: agreement on top line spending levels for appropriations. This is

855
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 11: the amount of money to run the federal agencies that

856
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 11: is appropriated each year. That would actually be a good

857
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 11: thing because it means that we might have some semblance

858
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 11: of a normal appropriations process and avoid a government shutdown

859
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 11: where appropriation slaps the third thing, and this is really

860
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 11: something that I think the business community we see a

861
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 11: lot of economic promissent, and that's permitting reform to speed

862
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 11: up the process when it comes to getting federal permits

863
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 11: for roads and bridges and energy infrastructure and broadband. We've

864
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,919
Speaker 11: been fighting for that for a long time and we're

865
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 11: hopeful that we're going to see a permitting reform included

866
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 11: as part of this de limit agreement.

867
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 3: How much permitting reform to what extent would permitting reform

868
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 3: help GDP. There's been a conversation here about economic growth

869
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 3: as well.

870
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 11: Yeah, so quite a bit, because it would allow you

871
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 11: to to speed up projects. So if you think about

872
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 11: the fact today that most federal permits, on average, it

873
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 11: takes about seven and a half years to go through

874
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 11: the federal permitting process, which means that's seven and a

875
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:17,240
Speaker 11: half years where you're not getting the economic benefits of

876
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 11: the new broadband deployment or that new bridge, or the

877
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 11: new energy infrastructure. So being able to pull those things

878
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 11: forward not only gives you the efficiency gains from that

879
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 11: new infrastructure, it also means that the infrastructure will actually

880
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 11: cost less. We've run some numbers. If you think about

881
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 11: for every million dollars in transportation infrastructure, if we could

882
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 11: accelerate the permitting and shave five years off, that we

883
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 11: would save about one hundred and fifty thousand dollars for

884
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 11: every million dollars in cost. So we're going to get

885
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 11: more infrastructure more quickly and that will only help boost GDP.

886
00:43:58,239 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 10: Seven and a half years. And I thought it took

887
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 10: a while to get a debt ceiling deal together. We thought,

888
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 10: we've been having this conversation for a while.

889
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 11: Yeah, and that's the average. You know, there are a

890
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 11: prints mission lines in the south west United States that

891
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 11: we're waiting fifteen years. They just got permitted in the

892
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:18,240
Speaker 11: last week.

893
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 10: Well, and we do understand, Neil, that that is something

894
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 10: that is on the table, maybe will end up in

895
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 10: the ultimate package. But as we think about the other

896
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 10: things that we know are currently being negotiated, the idea

897
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 10: of spending caps or spending cuts, we've also seen a

898
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 10: lot of research about the economic impact of that, that

899
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 10: kind of pulling back of the fiscal impulse and how

900
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 10: ultimately that could have a hand in slowing the economy,

901
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 10: or at least not having it grow to the degree

902
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 10: it would otherwise. How do businesses think about that?

903
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 11: Yeah, I remember, what they're really talking about is a

904
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 11: subset of the budget, So they're not talking about and

905
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 11: tied on mental security or medicare, the healthcare space, and

906
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 11: we're talking about the annual appropriations process. And so this

907
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 11: is an area that's grown in some instances double digit

908
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 11: percentages in recent years. And so, you know, the last

909
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 11: thing on the table over the weekend was the idea

910
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 11: of simply freezing it for a year. Freezing spending after

911
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 11: you've you know, increased it eight nine, ten, twelve percent

912
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 11: a year. I don't think is going to have a

913
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,800
Speaker 11: real negative impact on the economy, and it would certainly

914
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 11: be offset over the long term by beginning to get

915
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 11: our fiscal house in order.

916
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: We're spending some time with Neil Bradley from the Chamber

917
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,879
Speaker 3: of Commerce. Neil, how often are you hearing from members?

918
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 3: Has there been a rush to get in touch? Is

919
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 3: the phone ringing off the hook or is it just

920
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 3: like normal?

921
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 11: Well, it's beginning to be normal for one of these

922
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 11: dea limit events, which people you know, months out. Yeah,

923
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 11: I'm sure they'll get a result. And as you get

924
00:45:57,200 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 11: closer and now we're you know, within a week and

925
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 11: a half, of people are anxious and they want to

926
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 11: see a deal, and they they they know we're going

927
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 11: to go up to the eleventh hour, but we're kind

928
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 11: of at the tenth hour right now, so you know,

929
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 11: we need we need to see action, and that's what

930
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 11: people are looking for.

931
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 10: To what extent are they worried about a credit rating

932
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 10: downgrade not just a default?

933
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 11: You know, I think there's less concern on the on

934
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 11: the rating downgrade. I mean, it remains the case that

935
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 11: treasuries US treasuries are the closest thing to risk free

936
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 11: investments that we have. If the death limit gets raised

937
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 11: in a timely fashion, that will continue to be true.

938
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 11: It will re emphasize that we're in this bad posture

939
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 11: of always going up uh to to the last moment

940
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 11: and getting it done. But I think there's a lot

941
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,839
Speaker 11: less concern about the rating agencies and a lot more

942
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,399
Speaker 11: concerned about making focus that Congress and the President do

943
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 11: what they have to get done and what they've always

944
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 11: done every other time before, and that's get a deal

945
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 11: before we reach a default.

946
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 3: When do you need to have a deal, Neil, you.

947
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:15,760
Speaker 11: Know, probably assuming there's no short term extension in between,

948
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 11: and I wouldn't rule that out where you have a

949
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 11: deal that comes together, but it's going to take you

950
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 11: a while to pass it through the House in the Senate,

951
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 11: and maybe you get a short term extension. That's happened before.

952
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 11: But if you really want to make the June first deadline,

953
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 11: you know, if we're not seeing a deal by by Wednesday,

954
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 11: it starts to get really hard to ensure that you

955
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 11: can process that deal in time. So you know, one

956
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 11: of the things we've been warning about for months is

957
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 11: a risk of an unintended default where you think you're

958
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 11: going to get it done and you kind of stumble

959
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 11: your way into default because you miscalculated the timeline.

960
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 10: Neil, we only have about thirty seconds left. But I

961
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 10: understand that you were, at one point about eight years ago,

962
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 10: deputy chief of staff to Congressman Kevin McCarthy before he

963
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 10: was speaker. Kevin McCarthy, from what you know of him,

964
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 10: do you think he would blink or allow the country

965
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:10,919
Speaker 10: to default, which is more likely.

966
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,719
Speaker 11: I think he is going to insist upon and get

967
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 11: a good deal at the end of the day. We'll

968
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 11: be a perfect deal. Not everyone's going to agree with it.

969
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 11: Mick mulvaney was right, but he knows what needs to

970
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 11: get done here, and I think more likely than not

971
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 11: is that there's a deal and that passes on a

972
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:30,240
Speaker 11: bipartisan vote.

973
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 3: Right, Neil Bradley, we thank you for being with US

974
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 3: Executive VP, head of Strategic Advocacy, Chief Policy Officer. I

975
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 3: think maybe the most title on there. Here's got a

976
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 3: lot of them. Kaily at the US Chamber of Commerce,

977
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 3: thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure

978
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and

979
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 3: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find

980
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

981
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 3: Eastern time. Burg dot com