WEBVTT - Tonix Pharmaceuticals CEO on COVID-19 Vaccine Progress

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day

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<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week Carol Masser along with Paul Sweeney.

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<v Speaker 1>So we do need to get into the virus and

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<v Speaker 1>take a look at some of the headlines, certainly that

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen, because what we're seeing is COVID nineteen cases

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<v Speaker 1>really tick higher around the globe. Let's get our daily

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<v Speaker 1>check on the virus. So when we've reached out to

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<v Speaker 1>several times over the summer, most recently in late August,

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<v Speaker 1>is Dr Seth Letterman. He's chairman, president, CEO, and founder

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<v Speaker 1>of the New York based specialty pharmaceutical company Tonics Pharmaceuticals,

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<v Speaker 1>and he joins us on the phone in New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Letterman, so great to have you here with Paul

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<v Speaker 1>and myself. How are you? Um well, thank you, but

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<v Speaker 1>alarmed at the increasing cases in some of these states.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll talk to me about that. I too am alarmed.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, I was talking last week that I

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<v Speaker 1>was watching some of the evening news programs and just

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<v Speaker 1>to see the maps where there are increasing cases of

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen again, and basically the country was blanketed with

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<v Speaker 1>increases in cases. I look around the globe, I'm seeing

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<v Speaker 1>the same thing. And you know, what we talked about

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<v Speaker 1>last week is here we go. Here is the second wave,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems in some of the places, for example Montana,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe the Dakotas, it's really the first wave. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>unfortunate that the message about mask wearing and social distancing

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<v Speaker 1>didn't get out in front of it. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>that part of part of the problem in places they're

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<v Speaker 1>experiencing their first wave is that there was perhaps it

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<v Speaker 1>come lacency that it wouldn't happen to them. But I'm

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<v Speaker 1>encouraged that in places like New York City and other

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<v Speaker 1>places have already had fair number of COVID cases that

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<v Speaker 1>the increase is much more blunted, and I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>evidence of both some amount of herd immunity and also

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<v Speaker 1>that people are more concerned about social distancing and more

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<v Speaker 1>compliant with wearing masks. So dr you know, I watched

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of football over the weekend, college football, professional football,

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<v Speaker 1>and boy, I saw a lot of people in the stands,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in a lot of the markets and Texas and

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<v Speaker 1>other places. Not so much uh in the Northeast, But

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<v Speaker 1>it still seems to be a regional issue about some

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<v Speaker 1>of the basic principles have been trying to follow social distancing,

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<v Speaker 1>wearing masks, washing hands, and it's just not resoning with people.

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<v Speaker 1>And I just to me that is probably as big

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<v Speaker 1>an issue as the impending cold weather. It's frustrating to me.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a as you know, a doctor and a drug developer,

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<v Speaker 1>So why people resist wearing masses beyond my understanding. All

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<v Speaker 1>I can say is that if people did follow the

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<v Speaker 1>basic tenants of wearing masks, observing social distancing, washing hands,

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<v Speaker 1>that there would be a lot less pain and suffering.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm not sure how in a free society we

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<v Speaker 1>can mandate it further than it has been mandated well,

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<v Speaker 1>it does make me wonder then you know what we do.

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<v Speaker 1>It's interesting. I was watching was It sixty minutes over

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend and they did a whole thing on some

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<v Speaker 1>of the treatments that are out there in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>treating the virus and asked, you know, various doctors and

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<v Speaker 1>they made a point in the piece of saying when

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<v Speaker 1>they were asking what would you rather have a vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>or mask? And I think I'm to all of them

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<v Speaker 1>were like, I want to mask. We know it works,

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<v Speaker 1>it's really easy. It makes such a difference. But but

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<v Speaker 1>you're right, it's you know, in Asia, it's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in a lot of Asian countries, it's mandatory. There's an

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<v Speaker 1>app like there's all these things that you don't really

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<v Speaker 1>have a choice. In the US, um it's a very

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<v Speaker 1>very different story. So so Dr Letterman, where do we

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<v Speaker 1>go from here? What? What how do you see like

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<v Speaker 1>the next six months or twelve months playing out for us? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>there's some encouraging signs. I think that as I mentioned

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<v Speaker 1>New York City, there's widespread mask wearing, almost universal, and

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<v Speaker 1>things are really I think roaring back people are they

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<v Speaker 1>know how serious this can be and and and how

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<v Speaker 1>effective mask wearing and other UH standard practices can be

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm also very encouraged by the developments of therapeutics

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<v Speaker 1>and vaccines and uh, contrary to I guess the plur

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<v Speaker 1>lality of opinions on sixty minutes, I would prefer to

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<v Speaker 1>have a vaccine, but it would have to be a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine that will take a while to develop, that would

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<v Speaker 1>provide durable immunity and would optimally prevent spreading, because that's

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<v Speaker 1>really the type of vaccine that can stop a pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>in its tracks. Well, but how long does that take?

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<v Speaker 1>Adorable because I'm sorry, no, no, please go ahead. It

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<v Speaker 1>takes a while, because what we really need to know.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the first vaccines that are being studied now,

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<v Speaker 1>and some of them seem very interesting, they will have

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<v Speaker 1>data from people who have been infected within a month

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<v Speaker 1>or two or three months after getting vaccinated, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's likely that the protection of the vaccines some

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<v Speaker 1>maybe all of them that are in part of Operation

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<v Speaker 1>warp speed will provide that kind of short term protection.

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<v Speaker 1>But a really important question is whether they will be

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<v Speaker 1>protective a year out, And the difference between that early

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<v Speaker 1>protection and later protection is mostly antibodies. So antibodies protect

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<v Speaker 1>early on, but then they fade, and what's important in

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<v Speaker 1>long term protection is T cell immunity. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>that it will take a while two show that a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine will have durable protection. All right, So, dr is

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<v Speaker 1>this gonna be a cocktail of potential remedies vaccines or

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<v Speaker 1>do you think one blockbuster is gonna come on the

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<v Speaker 1>market and just kind of be the one. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it will be an evolution. I think the first

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines may not be the best, and there will be

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<v Speaker 1>an evolution, That's what I imagine. And then it may

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<v Speaker 1>very likely be that different vaccines will be better for

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<v Speaker 1>people at different stages of life. For example, older people

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<v Speaker 1>may need a different vaccine, which is already the case

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<v Speaker 1>for flu and other vaccines. And then there could be

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<v Speaker 1>different vaccines for people with different levels of immune competence.

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<v Speaker 1>So people with healthy immune systems may benefit from call

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<v Speaker 1>it a stronger vaccine, and people who have problems in

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<v Speaker 1>their immune system might benefit from call it a weaker vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>That the important thing about a really effective vaccine is

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<v Speaker 1>a really effective vaccine can stop people from spreading it

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<v Speaker 1>so that they can really end this phenotype of a

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<v Speaker 1>super spreader and and if that becomes nullified, and obviously

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of lives will be saved. And Dr Letterman,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think one of the issues is where

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<v Speaker 1>there's the science part of it, and that's so difficult,

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<v Speaker 1>but we've got some great minds around the world focusing

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<v Speaker 1>on it. And then assuming the science has worked out

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<v Speaker 1>in a vaccine or vaccines plural is UH found, then

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<v Speaker 1>the question becomes, all, now we've got to produce this thing,

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<v Speaker 1>We've got to distribute this thing becomes the whole sales channel,

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<v Speaker 1>the whole uh and that is a daunting task. How

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<v Speaker 1>are you thinking about that? Well, and it's an issue certainly,

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<v Speaker 1>but Operation Warp Speed has been remarkable in the way

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<v Speaker 1>that they have planned to distribute approximately a hundred million

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<v Speaker 1>doses of six to eight different vaccines and now a

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<v Speaker 1>number of therapies to many Americans. There's also obviously the

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<v Speaker 1>global issue um and issues that global access, but just

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<v Speaker 1>focusing on the United States, it is a huge logistical challenge,

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<v Speaker 1>but one that is being tackled by by Warp Speed,

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<v Speaker 1>at least with these medicines. And I believe there's been

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<v Speaker 1>discussion about since the administration has UM paid for the

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<v Speaker 1>development of these products, UM and in some cases purchase

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<v Speaker 1>them that even the cost of obtaining them is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be reasonable or subsidized by the government, which is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of mind blowing that whole process. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one thing I want to know, um, Dr Letterman, is

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<v Speaker 1>you guys have a couple of vaccines, specifically, can you

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<v Speaker 1>just give us an update on on where they are

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<v Speaker 1>and and the progress of them. Sure, our vaccines are

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<v Speaker 1>based on live replicating viruses. One is based on horsebox,

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<v Speaker 1>the other on something called Bovon Perry influenza virus. And

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<v Speaker 1>we are working on live replicating viruses because they are

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<v Speaker 1>known to to trigger T cell immunity, and we will

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<v Speaker 1>not be the first. We're not part of warp Speed,

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<v Speaker 1>but we think that the long term solution of this

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<v Speaker 1>is to have vaccines that trigger T cell immunity. We

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<v Speaker 1>envision that either Hours or one of the other companies

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<v Speaker 1>working in this small area of the vaccine programs might

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<v Speaker 1>someday become a childhood vaccine, something like MMR Mum's Measles Rebella.

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<v Speaker 1>Because we think we have to think not only about

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<v Speaker 1>the people that are alive today, but future generations are

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<v Speaker 1>going to have to contend with COVID nineteen. This this

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<v Speaker 1>virus is not going anywhere, and it will be something

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<v Speaker 1>we believe that humans will have to contend with for

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of time. Hey, just a quick follow Just

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<v Speaker 1>got about forty seconds here I mentioned herd mentality. I

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<v Speaker 1>know that it's been talked about, some have said it

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<v Speaker 1>could be productive here. We're going to talk about it

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<v Speaker 1>a bit a little bit later on our broadcast. Just

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<v Speaker 1>quickly your take on that. I think the good news

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<v Speaker 1>is that it appears there's that people who recover have

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<v Speaker 1>an immunity to the virus. It's something that we couldn't

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<v Speaker 1>have said six months ago. The virus only been around

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<v Speaker 1>for nine months. So um, that's very encouraging. And certainly

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<v Speaker 1>I think the flat UH infection rates and sickness rates

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<v Speaker 1>in New York suggests that there's some level of her immunity.

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<v Speaker 1>It's surprising because the number of people with antibody responses

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<v Speaker 1>are lower than you would expect to be required for

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<v Speaker 1>her immunity. But we believe that the missing piece is

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<v Speaker 1>that there are a number of people with T cell

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<v Speaker 1>immunity that either don't have antibodies or had antibodies in

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<v Speaker 1>one way. So I am encouraged about the prospects of

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<v Speaker 1>her immunity and we may get it before there's even

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<v Speaker 1>a vaccine. So glad to get your thoughts on that.

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<v Speaker 1>Really really appreciate that. Dr Seth Ledderman, thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>Chief Executive Officer, Tonics Pharmaceuticals, on the phone from New

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<v Speaker 1>York City. But it's you know, I feel like every

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<v Speaker 1>time I have a conversation with someone, Paul, from the

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<v Speaker 1>medical community, you know, you really do learn something, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's t sales, whether it's you know, the different paths

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<v Speaker 1>to like getting this under control. Yep, absolutely, and we

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<v Speaker 1>just need to be continued on that learning curve. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>no doubt. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Cairol Masser

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week Carol

0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:21.439
<v Speaker 1>Masser along with Paul Sweeney on this Monday. So P

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<v Speaker 1>P P. You know, the Paycheck Protection Program was part

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<v Speaker 1>of the two trillion dollar Cares Act. Well, it was

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<v Speaker 1>set up to offer forgivable loans to small businesses that

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<v Speaker 1>would help kind of keep them going through the lockdowns

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<v Speaker 1>here in the US. But things didn't go exactly as plan.

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<v Speaker 1>They never do. Here with her Business Week story, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>News Finance reporter Michelle Davis. She's on the phone in

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<v Speaker 1>Vermont along with Joel Webber, Bloomberg business Week editor. He

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from Massachusetts. You know, Joe,

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<v Speaker 1>it's just never straight lines, especially when you're dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>tons and tons of money and trying to get it

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<v Speaker 1>out to people fast. Yeah. What's what's interesting about this story? Um.

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<v Speaker 1>That totally caught our attention the moment that Michelle started

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<v Speaker 1>talking to us about it was that, you know, this

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<v Speaker 1>is the story is about the best intentions, um. And

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<v Speaker 1>when the p p P program originated, there there were

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<v Speaker 1>a ton of small businesses that were left in a

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<v Speaker 1>world of hurt because they didn't have existing relationships with

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<v Speaker 1>the big banks. So the big banks actually turned to

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<v Speaker 1>the vendors who they had existing relationships with, and within

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<v Speaker 1>a blink of an eye, two thirds of that money

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<v Speaker 1>was out the door and small businesses were left reeling.

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<v Speaker 1>And to make up for that in the second round

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<v Speaker 1>of p p P loans, by that point, um uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they the rules sort of got a little bit looser

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<v Speaker 1>and instead of just having big banks be the ones

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<v Speaker 1>that could be lenders, they also turned to fintech and

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<v Speaker 1>in the process, turns out months later we can look

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<v Speaker 1>back on some of this data and as Michelle did,

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<v Speaker 1>and it turns out that there was a fair amount

0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:57.640
<v Speaker 1>of fraudsters that were taking handouts and all of this. Michelle,

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.800
<v Speaker 1>how did you find out that that that was that

0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 1>was even happening and what did the data show? So

0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.480
<v Speaker 1>I read through all of the criminal complaints that have

0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.720
<v Speaker 1>come out on PPP fraud, you know, all of the

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:14.560
<v Speaker 1>Department of Justice UH filings and all of the court systems,

0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.200
<v Speaker 1>and I cross referenced a lot of the information there

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:22.680
<v Speaker 1>with some data that the Small Business Administration UH releases

0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.240
<v Speaker 1>publicly on you know, how many loans have been awarded

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 1>and the lenders on the other side of those loans,

0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 1>and in you know, identifying these lenders, I found that

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 1>UH fin techs and non bank online lenders handled seventy

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.960
<v Speaker 1>for seventy percent of the loans that are currently you know,

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.040
<v Speaker 1>being probed for fraud, even though when you look at

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 1>the five point two million loans that were issued as

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 1>part of the program, FinTechs were only on fifteen percent

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.600
<v Speaker 1>of those, So, you know, fifteen versus seventy five percent

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 1>percent of the ones that are currently being looked at

0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.480
<v Speaker 1>for fraud. It's definitely a pretty alarming trend. And part

0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:00.480
<v Speaker 1>of the issue seems to be that in the rush

0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.800
<v Speaker 1>to get this money out, a lot of these FinTechs,

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:06.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, they had good intentions, which was to to

0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 1>get money to entities, but banks weren't doing business with

0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>because you know, they didn't have existing religion just with

0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:14.680
<v Speaker 1>But it seems because a lot of it was automated,

0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:17.560
<v Speaker 1>there wasn't a lot of due diligence done, and so

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, in a lot of the cases I looked at,

0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:22.760
<v Speaker 1>it was evident that if if someone had just conducted

0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.880
<v Speaker 1>a public record records sarach or you know, Google there

0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:28.800
<v Speaker 1>these companies, they would have realized that millions of dollars

0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.920
<v Speaker 1>were being sent to businesses that didn't exist, didn't have employees,

0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>or you know, had been dormant for years before the

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 1>pandemic started. Wow. So, Michelle, this is a fascinating story. Unfortunately,

0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:40.760
<v Speaker 1>when we heard about the p p P program, we

0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 1>kind of said, boy, this looks like an area we're

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna see a lot of money changing hands in area

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:47.560
<v Speaker 1>right for fraud? Do we have any senses to the

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 1>total dollars kind of involved here. So the cases brought

0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.680
<v Speaker 1>by d o J so far only represent around a

0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:59.920
<v Speaker 1>hundred and seventy five million in alleged alleged fraud, which is,

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:02.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, a really small fraction of the five billion

0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.680
<v Speaker 1>in loans that have been approved. But I talked to

0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.920
<v Speaker 1>someone at pay net, which is a unit of Equifax,

0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 1>and they, you know, conducted an analysis of all the

0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:16.800
<v Speaker 1>loans larger than a hundred fifty thousand dollars, and they

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.680
<v Speaker 1>said about five percent of those raised red flags to

0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>them and looked you know, sketchy, warranted some due diligence.

0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.960
<v Speaker 1>So that's about up to twenty billion dollars worth of

0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.080
<v Speaker 1>potential fraud. And that's just for loans bigger than a

0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:31.680
<v Speaker 1>hundred fifty thousand. The same person that paint out said

0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.440
<v Speaker 1>if if he had access to the smaller loans, the

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 1>number would probably be a lot bigger because those are

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, loans that don't get as much scrutiny. Another

0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:42.240
<v Speaker 1>interesting trend related to that is that the fintex actually

0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:44.960
<v Speaker 1>tended to process some of these smaller loans that even

0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 1>the SBA has said it's not going to audit as

0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:51.360
<v Speaker 1>much as the bigger loans and and Michelle, you're reporting

0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:54.600
<v Speaker 1>it was pretty fascinating. I thought it was telling that

0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.720
<v Speaker 1>some of these loans were actually processed by fintech so

0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:00.920
<v Speaker 1>quickly that the people who were requesting the money were

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:04.119
<v Speaker 1>actually shocked at how quickly they got it. Who were

0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:06.639
<v Speaker 1>some of the big fintech players and all of this.

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:14.000
<v Speaker 1>So Cabbage Online lender, who before this had never processed

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.280
<v Speaker 1>the single SBA loan, ended up becoming the second biggest

0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.600
<v Speaker 1>PPP leunder by application volume, you know, after they got

0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:24.880
<v Speaker 1>approval to participate, and they appeared quite a bit in

0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:29.560
<v Speaker 1>my analysis, as did lenders like Crossover Bank and UH

0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:32.639
<v Speaker 1>Celtic Bank, which these are kind of these behind the

0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:35.600
<v Speaker 1>scenes fintech banks. That partner was a ton of fintech

0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:38.720
<v Speaker 1>and they provide the funding while the fintech, you know,

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.040
<v Speaker 1>we'll do the processing on the front end. Blue Line

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:43.640
<v Speaker 1>was another one that showed up a ton and UH.

0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:47.880
<v Speaker 1>An interesting stat related to Cabbage in particular was that

0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:52.440
<v Speaker 1>it turns out seventy of the applications but Cabbage process

0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:56.720
<v Speaker 1>flowed through without any human intervention or manual review, and

0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.679
<v Speaker 1>they said that the medium approval time for you know,

0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:02.719
<v Speaker 1>their loans was four hours, but I found people who

0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.720
<v Speaker 1>who got their loans approved in as little as an hour.

0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:09.000
<v Speaker 1>That's including like not only process by the fintech but

0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:11.840
<v Speaker 1>also SPA has already you know, signed off in the

0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 1>proof that agreed to issue the funds and meanwhile, you know,

0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:19.119
<v Speaker 1>thanks were taking weeks in some cases to spend some

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 1>of this money out. So I don't want to get

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:24.200
<v Speaker 1>ahead of myself here in Michelle. But if there were

0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:28.200
<v Speaker 1>to be more stimulus that could help small businesses, is

0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:31.080
<v Speaker 1>there any sense if there are any additional sort of

0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:34.080
<v Speaker 1>fail safes that are in place yet or could be

0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:38.920
<v Speaker 1>and put in place before a new wave of help

0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.560
<v Speaker 1>went out to small businesses. I think a lot of

0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:46.960
<v Speaker 1>this revolved around the actual Cares Act, which UH in it,

0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.440
<v Speaker 1>it says that you know that the government will hold

0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 1>harmless any lenders that basically take borrowers representations at face value.

0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.320
<v Speaker 1>So if the borrowers says like I'm eligible for this loan,

0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:01.520
<v Speaker 1>the lender can't get in trouble for you know, believing

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:03.240
<v Speaker 1>that if that turns out to be true. But there

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:05.720
<v Speaker 1>is a lot of questions around, you know, just what

0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:08.760
<v Speaker 1>how do you define negligence if if someone says I

0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 1>deserve this loan, but actually, you know, there's no record

0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.000
<v Speaker 1>of there being a business. You know, what is the

0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 1>wonder's responsibility? And that's instance. I think it's the law.

0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:18.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, if there were a little more clarity around

0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 1>what they were responsible for, how much diligence is required,

0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:26.399
<v Speaker 1>this sort of situation can probably be avoided. Yeah, we

0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:28.160
<v Speaker 1>knew that there were gonna be problems as we rushed

0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:30.639
<v Speaker 1>out to get money because people really needed it. But nonetheless,

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:33.320
<v Speaker 1>as the details come out as you report, Michelle, it's

0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 1>just a little bit um, you know, unsettling, to say

0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:39.680
<v Speaker 1>the least. Jill Webber, of course, editor of Bloomberg Business Week,

0:19:39.760 --> 0:19:42.240
<v Speaker 1>on the fund from Massachusetts and check out Michelle Davis

0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:44.880
<v Speaker 1>is her story. It's in the current issue of Bloomberg

0:19:44.880 --> 0:19:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Business Week that's online on the Bloomberg and on newsstand.

0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:51.600
<v Speaker 1>She's finance reporter at Bloomberg News. You're listening to Bloomberg

0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:56.280
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody,

0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:59.720
<v Speaker 1>time for the Monday edition of Bloomberg Business Week. Economics.

0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:03.760
<v Speaker 1>There a new survey out from Pew Research. They talked

0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:07.800
<v Speaker 1>with our surveyed fourteen nations with advanced economies. And while

0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:10.280
<v Speaker 1>many of the findings are to be expected, some not

0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:13.080
<v Speaker 1>so much. So let's get into it with Blueberg New

0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>Economy editorial director Andy Brown. It's his latest column, and

0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:18.800
<v Speaker 1>Andy joins Paul. So we need me on the phone

0:20:18.880 --> 0:20:22.440
<v Speaker 1>from New Hampshire. So Andy tell us UM a little

0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:26.720
<v Speaker 1>bit about this survey and what they set out to do. Yeah. So,

0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:29.879
<v Speaker 1>Pew has been running these surveys now for many years.

0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:35.040
<v Speaker 1>It's the survey of global opinion and national opinion. And

0:20:35.440 --> 0:20:39.000
<v Speaker 1>what has joined everybody's attention this year is that global

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:44.640
<v Speaker 1>views of China have turned sharply negative. UM. And it's

0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 1>obvious why. Most people around the world, according to this survey,

0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.679
<v Speaker 1>believe that China had watched the response the coronavirus. There

0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:54.840
<v Speaker 1>was a cover off. They denied. Local officials in whant

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:58.400
<v Speaker 1>denied that was human to human transmission, and they silence doctors,

0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:02.960
<v Speaker 1>whistle blow are doctors? Um? And you know, as a

0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:06.160
<v Speaker 1>result of that, the image of President Ji Jimping has

0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:10.600
<v Speaker 1>suffered very badly. Majorities around the world. In these fourteen countries,

0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:15.840
<v Speaker 1>the world's richest, most advanced democracies don't trust Jiping to

0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:18.679
<v Speaker 1>do the right thing in global affairs according to the

0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:23.439
<v Speaker 1>Peace that's the story everybody focused on, But it's only

0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:27.160
<v Speaker 1>half of the story. The country that did way way

0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:32.399
<v Speaker 1>worse than China and the leader that performed more even

0:21:32.520 --> 0:21:36.120
<v Speaker 1>more poorly than Ji jimping with the United States and

0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, and you know, the story there, frankly, is

0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:43.080
<v Speaker 1>that there is no global leadership. Both of these great

0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:46.560
<v Speaker 1>powers have come out of coronavirus with their reputation in

0:21:46.760 --> 0:21:51.360
<v Speaker 1>castle globally. So it's interesting here is there a concern

0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:55.000
<v Speaker 1>as it relates to China, that this wasn't something that

0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:58.080
<v Speaker 1>just escaped from the country, that perhaps it was something

0:21:58.240 --> 0:22:04.840
<v Speaker 1>from the central government, as some conspiracy theorists believe. Yeah,

0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:08.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, that's that's that's what the conspiracy conspiracy theorists say.

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:10.720
<v Speaker 1>But look, this was a response in two parts. I mean,

0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:13.600
<v Speaker 1>so the first part of this was the botched initial response.

0:22:14.040 --> 0:22:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Much of this occurred at the local level, and of

0:22:16.040 --> 0:22:19.760
<v Speaker 1>course it's it's it points up failures in China's government system.

0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 1>A lot of people think that local officials basically didn't

0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:25.720
<v Speaker 1>want to put up the balloon in Wuhan because they

0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:29.040
<v Speaker 1>thought that the central leadership didn't want to hear bad news.

0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:31.840
<v Speaker 1>The second part of the story, however, is that China

0:22:31.920 --> 0:22:35.680
<v Speaker 1>came through this way better than almost any other country

0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:39.840
<v Speaker 1>in the world. Their response was decisive. They went into lockdown.

0:22:40.480 --> 0:22:43.199
<v Speaker 1>They more or less they completely not see the virus

0:22:43.280 --> 0:22:45.800
<v Speaker 1>under control. And now the country has opened back up

0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.480
<v Speaker 1>the game. They're having rock concerts in Wuhant where it

0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:52.160
<v Speaker 1>all began. So really very much as you know, two

0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:55.879
<v Speaker 1>stories there on COVID well, and I do wonder like

0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.400
<v Speaker 1>now what you know, it's remarkable, right as you said,

0:22:58.440 --> 0:23:02.320
<v Speaker 1>both leaders, you know, not very good global views on

0:23:02.480 --> 0:23:04.880
<v Speaker 1>either of them, but it is remarkable that the US

0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 1>is even worth you know, is it is it all

0:23:07.600 --> 0:23:10.320
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump? And is it all his handling of the

0:23:10.400 --> 0:23:16.119
<v Speaker 1>virus or is it really kind of the past four years? Um?

0:23:16.200 --> 0:23:19.639
<v Speaker 1>So you know, essentially what's happened, what's occurred now is

0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:21.919
<v Speaker 1>that and and and and the surprise, I guess the

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:26.400
<v Speaker 1>surprising thing from this survey is that attitudes towards both

0:23:26.480 --> 0:23:29.560
<v Speaker 1>China and the US were measured in countries that are

0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:33.919
<v Speaker 1>all allies or close friends of the United States. And

0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:37.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, what's what's what's probably shocking and should be shocking.

0:23:37.720 --> 0:23:40.439
<v Speaker 1>I think to exchange to the White House, is that

0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:44.920
<v Speaker 1>this occurred in a year when China was condemned internationally

0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:48.280
<v Speaker 1>for human rights abuses in hi Jong, for cracking down

0:23:48.320 --> 0:23:51.480
<v Speaker 1>on civililities in Hong Kong, for intimidation of Taiwan, for

0:23:51.600 --> 0:23:55.760
<v Speaker 1>it's asserted policies in the self China. See all of

0:23:55.800 --> 0:23:59.639
<v Speaker 1>this combined, and yet the United States UH and the

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:04.200
<v Speaker 1>Trump administration still come come across UH come out of this,

0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:07.000
<v Speaker 1>so they worse than China. So it really tells you

0:24:07.080 --> 0:24:09.920
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, yes about China standing in the world,

0:24:09.960 --> 0:24:12.480
<v Speaker 1>but I think much more dramatically about America standing and

0:24:13.920 --> 0:24:16.119
<v Speaker 1>so any that kind of begs the question that, you know,

0:24:16.600 --> 0:24:19.280
<v Speaker 1>as we get past this pandemic on a global scale

0:24:20.080 --> 0:24:23.040
<v Speaker 1>again not sure when that is, but what will be

0:24:23.480 --> 0:24:26.359
<v Speaker 1>the role of the United States visa v. China. It

0:24:26.520 --> 0:24:30.399
<v Speaker 1>really seems like China was on this ascendency, the US

0:24:30.520 --> 0:24:34.560
<v Speaker 1>pulling back with this America First credo. But I'm not

0:24:34.600 --> 0:24:37.040
<v Speaker 1>sure that's still the case here. I mean, I don't think,

0:24:37.119 --> 0:24:39.040
<v Speaker 1>as you point out here at the Pew research data,

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:45.240
<v Speaker 1>neither of the supposed leaders scored well exactly. So you know,

0:24:45.280 --> 0:24:47.680
<v Speaker 1>there are some people that think that as a result

0:24:47.760 --> 0:24:50.959
<v Speaker 1>of this election that will snap back where it was

0:24:51.000 --> 0:24:53.880
<v Speaker 1>before in the United States was going to reclaim its

0:24:53.920 --> 0:24:57.879
<v Speaker 1>position of leadership in the liberal global order, whatever that

0:24:57.960 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 1>may need. Other people, on the other hand, think that

0:25:00.600 --> 0:25:03.280
<v Speaker 1>China is going to take advantage of its surgeic economy

0:25:03.359 --> 0:25:05.960
<v Speaker 1>the way that it came back and and it's done

0:25:06.000 --> 0:25:09.879
<v Speaker 1>so well, Uh, there's the coronavirus and is going to

0:25:09.960 --> 0:25:12.440
<v Speaker 1>replace the United States going to build a parallel set

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:17.680
<v Speaker 1>of institutions. Neither, of course, according or the inference from

0:25:17.680 --> 0:25:20.760
<v Speaker 1>this sub is forget it. Neither of those scenarios is

0:25:20.760 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 1>going to happen. The world is leadership lacking leadership right now.

0:25:25.359 --> 0:25:27.800
<v Speaker 1>The best that we can expect, I think, is a

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:31.679
<v Speaker 1>far more transactional type of relationship between between the United

0:25:31.720 --> 0:25:36.679
<v Speaker 1>States and China and the world that really um lacks direction.

0:25:37.200 --> 0:25:41.439
<v Speaker 1>UM have shifting coalitions between groups of countries, UM, but

0:25:41.680 --> 0:25:44.840
<v Speaker 1>essentially nobody in chop well you know, and you know, Andy,

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:47.600
<v Speaker 1>we've talked about this before. I do wonder, depending you know,

0:25:47.680 --> 0:25:50.399
<v Speaker 1>the outcome of the November election, if we do have

0:25:50.480 --> 0:25:53.480
<v Speaker 1>a change in the White House, how quickly, how easily

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:56.800
<v Speaker 1>can let's say, a Biden White House repair some of

0:25:56.840 --> 0:26:00.119
<v Speaker 1>the strained relationships that have resulted over the last for

0:26:00.400 --> 0:26:03.680
<v Speaker 1>four years. And just got about forty seconds here. Yeah,

0:26:03.760 --> 0:26:08.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that it's it's possible to heal uh

0:26:08.560 --> 0:26:13.280
<v Speaker 1>this trust deficit uh quickly? Um. Uh, you know, trust

0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:17.359
<v Speaker 1>once it's the trade is very difficult to rebuild. China's

0:26:17.359 --> 0:26:20.359
<v Speaker 1>in denial. It blames the foreigners of cause for foreign

0:26:20.480 --> 0:26:23.760
<v Speaker 1>forces for all its problems. The United States at least

0:26:23.760 --> 0:26:27.000
<v Speaker 1>it does have an opportunity to correct. And this is

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:29.800
<v Speaker 1>said to be one of the great strengths of democracy. Uh.

0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:33.199
<v Speaker 1>Is this writing mechanism, and there is an opportunity that

0:26:33.359 --> 0:26:37.680
<v Speaker 1>voters have and in November uh to um to start

0:26:37.760 --> 0:26:42.280
<v Speaker 1>to to fix the problem. Yeah. Interesting, Andy Brown, thank

0:26:42.280 --> 0:26:44.359
<v Speaker 1>you so much for joining us. We appreciate it all

0:26:44.400 --> 0:26:47.560
<v Speaker 1>the time. We appreciate your perspective of all things China.

0:26:47.600 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg New Economy Editorial director Andy Brown. There, I mean

0:26:50.840 --> 0:26:53.760
<v Speaker 1>really causing the question. I love your your question. There

0:26:54.040 --> 0:26:56.080
<v Speaker 1>is it just simply calling up all allies and saying,

0:26:56.160 --> 0:26:59.080
<v Speaker 1>just forget the last four years, we're back right exactly.

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:01.200
<v Speaker 1>And he's written about this. I mean there's a lot

0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:04.439
<v Speaker 1>that's already happened, and you know, nations and alliances have

0:27:04.520 --> 0:27:07.359
<v Speaker 1>moved forward as we've moved in a different direction as

0:27:07.400 --> 0:27:10.399
<v Speaker 1>a nation. So um time will certainly tell, and of

0:27:10.400 --> 0:27:12.480
<v Speaker 1>course certainly be on. I would think on the top

0:27:12.520 --> 0:27:15.359
<v Speaker 1>of the to do list for the next present, whoever

0:27:15.440 --> 0:27:22.720
<v Speaker 1>that may be. I bro journal now, but you let

0:27:22.720 --> 0:27:27.560
<v Speaker 1>me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll

0:27:27.600 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 1>do the riding drivels me. I want to drive, Just drive, baby,

0:27:37.359 --> 0:27:47.320
<v Speaker 1>the questions trying. This is the drive to the globe.

0:27:48.520 --> 0:27:53.560
<v Speaker 1>Thanks well, drying us on Bloomberg Radio. Caroli was just

0:27:53.800 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 1>looking the drive to the close today. Carol's me with J. J. Kinahan,

0:27:58.080 --> 0:28:00.960
<v Speaker 1>chief market stratagist TV A merritory. He joins us on

0:28:00.960 --> 0:28:03.159
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Chicago. J J. Carro and I have

0:28:03.200 --> 0:28:05.520
<v Speaker 1>been batting back and forth here and as investors have

0:28:06.320 --> 0:28:10.560
<v Speaker 1>as well. Kind of the disconnect between financial markets and

0:28:10.600 --> 0:28:14.919
<v Speaker 1>the economy. Is it simply a function of Federal Reserve

0:28:15.200 --> 0:28:18.840
<v Speaker 1>j pal having the spickets on and showing no signs

0:28:18.960 --> 0:28:20.680
<v Speaker 1>of turning them off. If that's what this trade is

0:28:20.720 --> 0:28:24.879
<v Speaker 1>all about, well, if, well, I think that's part of it.

0:28:25.280 --> 0:28:27.520
<v Speaker 1>I also think that if you look at a day

0:28:27.600 --> 0:28:30.000
<v Speaker 1>like today, you know, the faint stock let's face it

0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:32.280
<v Speaker 1>over the last few weeks have not been exact, had

0:28:32.440 --> 0:28:36.720
<v Speaker 1>much fang to them, so to speak. Uh, those coming alive.

0:28:36.840 --> 0:28:39.440
<v Speaker 1>I think also shows that people are looking a little

0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:42.880
<v Speaker 1>bit forward and saying, okay, if if, if we do

0:28:43.000 --> 0:28:46.440
<v Speaker 1>have a market sell off, you know, because of election

0:28:46.600 --> 0:28:49.200
<v Speaker 1>or anything like that, or some sort of slow down,

0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 1>which stocks still do well. They do. And actually if

0:28:54.600 --> 0:28:57.760
<v Speaker 1>we go back to work, which stocks still do well.

0:28:58.000 --> 0:29:01.120
<v Speaker 1>And again it becomes primarily the technolog argy stocks because

0:29:01.160 --> 0:29:05.000
<v Speaker 1>they've added clients and they've added sticking clients during the

0:29:05.040 --> 0:29:08.360
<v Speaker 1>past few months. So there's also let's face at Apple

0:29:08.520 --> 0:29:11.480
<v Speaker 1>and you know, Amazon leading the way with a little

0:29:11.480 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 1>bit of excitement because they both have major events coming

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:18.200
<v Speaker 1>up tomorrow. And you wonder how much of this is

0:29:18.280 --> 0:29:20.200
<v Speaker 1>the sort of by the rumors sell the news a

0:29:20.200 --> 0:29:22.120
<v Speaker 1>little bit, which they both have a little bit of

0:29:22.120 --> 0:29:25.000
<v Speaker 1>a history of. Not to say that longer term they

0:29:25.000 --> 0:29:28.280
<v Speaker 1>haven't gone higher after that, but often they rally into

0:29:28.760 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 1>either Prime Day or Apple conference. Speaking major events, it's

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:36.120
<v Speaker 1>a big week for banks, and I do wonder what

0:29:36.120 --> 0:29:39.520
<v Speaker 1>are your expectations and how they might kind of help

0:29:39.600 --> 0:29:43.480
<v Speaker 1>the trade here JJ and maybe overshadow some of investors

0:29:43.520 --> 0:29:47.160
<v Speaker 1>focus on the virus if you will, and on further

0:29:47.720 --> 0:29:52.480
<v Speaker 1>relief and aid from policymakers. Sure, girl. I think that

0:29:52.480 --> 0:29:55.440
<v Speaker 1>that's going to come down to one major thing, you know,

0:29:55.680 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 1>as you see it early, and that's going to be

0:29:57.200 --> 0:30:00.200
<v Speaker 1>their trading and how well they've gone there be because

0:30:00.640 --> 0:30:02.640
<v Speaker 1>that's obviously been a big part of their earnings the

0:30:02.720 --> 0:30:04.920
<v Speaker 1>last two quarters, and I think will be another big

0:30:04.960 --> 0:30:08.840
<v Speaker 1>part of their earnings dis quarter because although the interest

0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:12.720
<v Speaker 1>rate environment has improved for them a little bit, uh

0:30:12.760 --> 0:30:15.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, let's be honest, if we're getting excited about

0:30:15.080 --> 0:30:17.440
<v Speaker 1>eight basis points on the ten year rate, you know,

0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:20.800
<v Speaker 1>you certainly hope that's not the long term view. So

0:30:21.120 --> 0:30:23.560
<v Speaker 1>uh much of it. I think also, as you know,

0:30:23.800 --> 0:30:27.440
<v Speaker 1>covering this uh so many times, is going to go

0:30:27.640 --> 0:30:30.920
<v Speaker 1>to with the statements that they make going forward. Uh

0:30:30.920 --> 0:30:32.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, what is Mr Diamond gonna come out and

0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:35.040
<v Speaker 1>say tomorrow about the rest of the world and his

0:30:35.320 --> 0:30:37.680
<v Speaker 1>last couple of quarters. He has moved the market a

0:30:37.720 --> 0:30:40.240
<v Speaker 1>little bit with some of the things he's had to say,

0:30:40.320 --> 0:30:42.840
<v Speaker 1>So I think them setting the table for the earning

0:30:42.880 --> 0:30:46.480
<v Speaker 1>scene is also important. I think this will be the

0:30:46.600 --> 0:30:50.640
<v Speaker 1>last quarter where companies can get away with just showing

0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:54.760
<v Speaker 1>some improvement even if they don't necessarily meet the numbers

0:30:54.760 --> 0:30:57.960
<v Speaker 1>that are expected. And I think those companies that missed

0:30:58.400 --> 0:31:00.360
<v Speaker 1>on this round of earnings are death real. You're going

0:31:00.400 --> 0:31:02.800
<v Speaker 1>to be punished timely. Hey j J. As I look

0:31:02.880 --> 0:31:04.760
<v Speaker 1>at this market, it seems a little bit like a

0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:07.880
<v Speaker 1>head's eye win tails, you lose for equities and other

0:31:07.960 --> 0:31:10.400
<v Speaker 1>risk assets in the sense that, Okay, if I see

0:31:10.440 --> 0:31:12.320
<v Speaker 1>some data out there like we did over the weekend,

0:31:12.320 --> 0:31:14.880
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic numbers are getting worse, that suggest that, you know,

0:31:14.920 --> 0:31:18.240
<v Speaker 1>the economic recovery may bee pushed down the road. Then

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:20.400
<v Speaker 1>if in that scenario, I buy the big growth things

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:23.480
<v Speaker 1>like we're seeing trading today, the amazons of the world. Conversely,

0:31:23.880 --> 0:31:26.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, if I see, oh boy, we're gonna get

0:31:26.400 --> 0:31:28.560
<v Speaker 1>a fat vaccine data and we're gonna get a vaccine

0:31:28.600 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 1>quickly by the end of the year, then people will

0:31:30.080 --> 0:31:32.080
<v Speaker 1>be back to work next year, then I want to

0:31:32.200 --> 0:31:35.760
<v Speaker 1>rotate into cyclical names. It's it's kind of an odd

0:31:36.120 --> 0:31:38.320
<v Speaker 1>the way the market is kind of viewing this. Is

0:31:38.320 --> 0:31:40.880
<v Speaker 1>that kind of how you view it as well. Yeah,

0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:42.800
<v Speaker 1>it's really been amazing, and I think a lot of

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:47.280
<v Speaker 1>people are scratching their heads saying, uh, you know, how

0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:49.720
<v Speaker 1>do I play this incasive will pull back and not

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:51.760
<v Speaker 1>that I want to throw water on the parade, so

0:31:51.800 --> 0:31:54.840
<v Speaker 1>to speak. But it's something you should be considering, and

0:31:55.280 --> 0:31:58.160
<v Speaker 1>I think we may get if the rest of the

0:31:58.200 --> 0:32:00.720
<v Speaker 1>week goes pretty well. But one thing that I think

0:32:00.760 --> 0:32:03.240
<v Speaker 1>you may start to see next week. To be honest,

0:32:03.320 --> 0:32:06.880
<v Speaker 1>I don't think you've seen a huge attention of the

0:32:06.960 --> 0:32:10.440
<v Speaker 1>market on the election so far. I think next week

0:32:10.520 --> 0:32:13.240
<v Speaker 1>we begin to pay a little bit more attention because

0:32:13.440 --> 0:32:15.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, four years ago, I think the one thing

0:32:15.080 --> 0:32:17.480
<v Speaker 1>people learned was don't get caught up sort of too

0:32:17.480 --> 0:32:21.240
<v Speaker 1>early in polls, etcetera. And it'll be interesting to see

0:32:21.920 --> 0:32:24.480
<v Speaker 1>for me to see next week if we start to see,

0:32:24.640 --> 0:32:28.400
<v Speaker 1>particularly in UH sectors like healthcare a little bit and

0:32:28.800 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 1>financials actually a little bit more jockeying there as people consider,

0:32:33.520 --> 0:32:35.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, will the Democrats take the House and senate,

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:40.720
<v Speaker 1>the presidency, etcetera, and what the expected policies will be

0:32:40.760 --> 0:32:43.160
<v Speaker 1>coming forward for that. I think this is one last

0:32:43.200 --> 0:32:46.800
<v Speaker 1>week of hoping out, holding out hope for stimulus. If

0:32:46.840 --> 0:32:48.960
<v Speaker 1>stimulus doesn't come out by the rest of the week,

0:32:49.000 --> 0:32:51.600
<v Speaker 1>I think you may see the market's focus change a

0:32:51.600 --> 0:32:54.560
<v Speaker 1>little bit too. Okay, now we have either way. I

0:32:54.560 --> 0:32:56.880
<v Speaker 1>think we're gonna change to Okay, now we have to

0:32:56.960 --> 0:32:59.200
<v Speaker 1>concentrate on the election and what that means a little

0:32:59.200 --> 0:33:01.680
<v Speaker 1>bit longer count. So listen, I gotta take a step

0:33:01.680 --> 0:33:03.720
<v Speaker 1>back here, because you know, none of none of this

0:33:03.800 --> 0:33:06.280
<v Speaker 1>really matters until we get this virus under control. And

0:33:06.320 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 1>I do wonder and obviously stimulus does matter. But you know,

0:33:09.720 --> 0:33:13.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at virus cases in Illinois seven day average

0:33:13.360 --> 0:33:16.320
<v Speaker 1>of new COVID nineteen cases at a new high, topping

0:33:16.400 --> 0:33:20.120
<v Speaker 1>numbers from early May. Thirty more deaths reported on Monday.

0:33:20.280 --> 0:33:22.800
<v Speaker 1>You gotta be watching this, j j um. What did

0:33:22.800 --> 0:33:26.640
<v Speaker 1>you seeing what's going on around you? Guys? Well, I

0:33:27.000 --> 0:33:30.920
<v Speaker 1>think that that's a great point, Carroll, because uh, no

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:35.280
<v Speaker 1>matter what else happens, that's sort of the overhanging uh

0:33:35.520 --> 0:33:38.080
<v Speaker 1>piece of news that can change the market at any moment.

0:33:38.480 --> 0:33:40.840
<v Speaker 1>And so you have all these other sub stories that

0:33:40.880 --> 0:33:45.200
<v Speaker 1>are all one. A COVID is definitely number one. But

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:49.200
<v Speaker 1>until we get some real progress on COVID or I

0:33:49.240 --> 0:33:53.040
<v Speaker 1>think a major change in the cases, I think it's

0:33:53.080 --> 0:33:55.680
<v Speaker 1>gonna take a little bit of oh wow, we have

0:33:55.760 --> 0:33:59.480
<v Speaker 1>to keep our eye there, but nothing is significantly changing

0:33:59.480 --> 0:34:00.920
<v Speaker 1>and I think you and see that a little bit

0:34:00.960 --> 0:34:04.120
<v Speaker 1>today on just what you see a in the market overall.

0:34:04.400 --> 0:34:06.600
<v Speaker 1>But you're making a great point for those who watch

0:34:06.720 --> 0:34:10.240
<v Speaker 1>the volatility. You see the VIX up a little bit today,

0:34:10.280 --> 0:34:12.160
<v Speaker 1>and so you're saying that it's no big deal, But

0:34:12.280 --> 0:34:14.359
<v Speaker 1>that's not how it should react on a day like today.

0:34:14.400 --> 0:34:16.960
<v Speaker 1>It should actually be lower. It's still holding on at

0:34:17.120 --> 0:34:20.360
<v Speaker 1>twenty five level, and it's been between twenty five and thirty,

0:34:20.360 --> 0:34:22.080
<v Speaker 1>and I think many traders are looking at it that

0:34:22.520 --> 0:34:25.160
<v Speaker 1>if we're below twenty five, that's a little bit more

0:34:25.200 --> 0:34:28.200
<v Speaker 1>of an all clear, and if we're above thirty, that's

0:34:28.239 --> 0:34:31.080
<v Speaker 1>time to say, hey, you know something to consider here.

0:34:31.400 --> 0:34:33.040
<v Speaker 1>And one of the interesting things to me is is

0:34:33.080 --> 0:34:35.759
<v Speaker 1>I look out at the election. We see the futures

0:34:35.800 --> 0:34:40.120
<v Speaker 1>putting in an expecting expectation for higher, higher volatility, which

0:34:40.120 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 1>of course made sense, but then that volatility staying elevated

0:34:44.719 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 1>for the few weeks after the election because now you

0:34:48.239 --> 0:34:52.480
<v Speaker 1>have the mail in ballots which may take longer to

0:34:52.560 --> 0:34:55.560
<v Speaker 1>actually decide who the winners are. Yeah, that BIGS trade

0:34:55.600 --> 0:34:57.399
<v Speaker 1>is an important point. We talked about that a little

0:34:57.400 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 1>bit last week because we saw that, you know, we've

0:34:59.040 --> 0:35:01.480
<v Speaker 1>seen that where stocks are up and you're seeing the

0:35:01.560 --> 0:35:04.800
<v Speaker 1>vix still move up, and that doesn't quite make complete sense.

0:35:04.880 --> 0:35:07.600
<v Speaker 1>So um, good thing to point out. J. J. Kinahan,

0:35:07.680 --> 0:35:09.800
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, as I always Chief Market Strategy,

0:35:09.800 --> 0:35:12.120
<v Speaker 1>a T D marriage trade on the front from Chicago

0:35:12.200 --> 0:35:15.200
<v Speaker 1>and yeah, you know, you know, apology, you look around

0:35:15.280 --> 0:35:18.960
<v Speaker 1>these cities and just seeing the numbers go up. Um,

0:35:19.000 --> 0:35:20.799
<v Speaker 1>you know, until we get it under control. It's kind

0:35:20.840 --> 0:35:22.840
<v Speaker 1>of the same old story, you know that we're going

0:35:22.920 --> 0:35:25.279
<v Speaker 1>to be talking about. It really is, and uh, it's

0:35:25.280 --> 0:35:27.719
<v Speaker 1>just it's kind of it's gotten regional. Um. Fortunately the

0:35:27.719 --> 0:35:29.600
<v Speaker 1>New York metro area is doing a good job. But

0:35:29.640 --> 0:35:32.080
<v Speaker 1>I saw El Paso, Texas is a new hotspot in

0:35:32.080 --> 0:35:33.919
<v Speaker 1>the continent of U S. So it kind of moves

0:35:33.960 --> 0:35:39.400
<v Speaker 1>around based upon I think behavior. Yeah, exactly. Thanks so

0:35:39.480 --> 0:35:42.320
<v Speaker 1>much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:35:42.360 --> 0:35:45.279
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0:35:45.360 --> 0:35:47.399
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