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Speaker 1: All right, well Johnny as Clifton Hills, Senior vice president

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Speaker 1: and Global macro portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management. Clifton,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Well, to be

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Speaker 1: a fun manager in this climate cannot be easy. What

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Speaker 1: on earth are you doing? Oh yeah, Rich, thanks for

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Speaker 1: having me. You know, you basically need a lot of

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Speaker 1: dynamic models. You really need to see the macro landscape

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Speaker 1: and and have the ability to shift quite quickly. Because

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Speaker 1: the ability of forecast that we had previously, we don't

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Speaker 1: have that much anymore so, so the so the clarity

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Speaker 1: in which we had in our three to six months forecast, uh,

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Speaker 1: we don't have as much anymore. So, so we really

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Speaker 1: have to maximum on the dynamic ability to shift. The

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Speaker 1: As these variable shift, the economic data and the central

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Speaker 1: banks and the yields and things of that nature shift,

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Speaker 1: our portfolios have to shift as well. So what are

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Speaker 1: some of the better ideas that have led you to actually, um,

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Speaker 1: if you have some pms, make money to you know,

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Speaker 1: put capes on their backs. Uh yes, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: really we're following the we're following the global central bank

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Speaker 1: tightening cycle, right so, uh, you know, starting in early one,

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Speaker 1: we had you know, from one we started rate heights

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Speaker 1: across the globe, we've had three seventeen tightening so far.

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Speaker 1: We've had seventeen last week, so we're really following. You know,

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Speaker 1: finally we've been able to have a true business cycle

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Speaker 1: across the globe for so much, so much time with

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Speaker 1: quantitative easing, we didn't have the the volatility in the

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Speaker 1: in the business cycle and in the growth cycles and

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Speaker 1: in the inflation cycles. But now if you're truly looking

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Speaker 1: at from a macro perspective, which is what we do,

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Speaker 1: you know, systematic global macro, we're really able to look

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Speaker 1: at each country individually and really take advantage of the

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Speaker 1: various business cycles, both on the inflation front with the

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Speaker 1: central bank hiking, but also on the growth front. And

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Speaker 1: what I mean more in detail about the growth front

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Speaker 1: is what countries can really hike rates and still maintain

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Speaker 1: growth as opposed to countries where the where the growth

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Speaker 1: really starts to falter when the central bank hikes rates. Gifted.

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Speaker 1: That's the next question. So what did you find? What countries,

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Speaker 1: what jurisdictions are you talking about here? Then? Yeah, sure,

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Speaker 1: so early on in the two we we were more

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Speaker 1: positive on many of the emerging market currencies that were

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Speaker 1: commodity related, so really a mix of you know, long

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Speaker 1: e MFCs in which they had a lot of commodity exposure,

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Speaker 1: but then more negative on countries where the yields weren't

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Speaker 1: as high and also didn't have commodity exposure. So that

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Speaker 1: was very that was very helpful. And then equities, who've

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Speaker 1: been underway pretty much all year, and really what happened

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Speaker 1: is our our portfolio started shifting with the models. The

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Speaker 1: model starts shifting our portfolio as we had higher rates

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Speaker 1: and higher inflation. It kind of gave negative signal to

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Speaker 1: a lot of the so more negative on equities, although

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Speaker 1: not all equities. There's some bright spots commodity related, more

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Speaker 1: positive on the US dollar versus d M and ultimately

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Speaker 1: e M. So it's shifted later in the in the

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Speaker 1: year in terms of turning more negative on e m

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Speaker 1: UH and then really trying to play that commodity cycle

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Speaker 1: where you're more positive on commodities, you know, for the

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Speaker 1: first four or five months of the year, and then

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Speaker 1: as the market started shifting to price and recession or

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Speaker 1: portfolio started shifting to be more neutral on commodities. So

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Speaker 1: you wouldn't be going long energy now after the big

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Speaker 1: sell off on the views that it's oversold. Uh oh, Brian,

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Speaker 1: It's a great question, you know, at some point with

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Speaker 1: the fundamentals. And what's really interesting when you look at

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Speaker 1: the UH when you look at kind of the balance

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Speaker 1: sheet of our models in terms of petroleum, is there's

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Speaker 1: positive there's positive factors in terms of UH the carry

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Speaker 1: so the so the market is still pricing in you know,

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Speaker 1: positive outcome for patroling in terms of to carry, but

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Speaker 1: all the macro factors are negative. So that's caused us

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Speaker 1: to really go from max you know, kind of max

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Speaker 1: positive you in in January through able to now really neutral,

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Speaker 1: so we are not buying patrol and and furthermore on

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Speaker 1: that we're actually shifting. I would I would assume we'd

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Speaker 1: be negative on petroleum, you know, within the next week

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Speaker 1: or two. So is there anything out there at the

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Speaker 1: moment that you have a conviction upon it is an

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Speaker 1: absolute trade that you think can't miss? Yeah, yeah, Uh, Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, like I said, you have to be quite dynamic,

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Speaker 1: so I'm not I'm hard pressed to come on and say,

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Speaker 1: you know, I have this convention trade for the next

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Speaker 1: you know six months, but I'll say right now, you know,

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Speaker 1: still positive the dollar both verse d M and E M.

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Speaker 1: I'd say, we're still negative on yield, so we do

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Speaker 1: not know what the terminal rate is in the US.

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Speaker 1: You know, one thing that's interesting Rashan and Bryan when

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Speaker 1: we talked about this, is the market see like they

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Speaker 1: want to have this kind of binary outcome in terms of, Okay,

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Speaker 1: is it inflation or is it not inflation? Is they

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Speaker 1: say going to pivot or they not gonna pivot? And

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Speaker 1: I think what we really have to understand when we're

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Speaker 1: positioning ourselves is there may not be no clear there

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Speaker 1: may not be a clear answer in terms of that

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Speaker 1: pivot or that binary outcome, and it may be something

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Speaker 1: we may be having the same conversation. Uh, come February

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Speaker 1: and March. So still long, the dollar, still quite negative

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Speaker 1: on fixed income, neutral commodity, and that's kind of where

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Speaker 1: we land right now. Yeah, a lot of people on

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Speaker 1: one side of the boat. You have to say, but

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Speaker 1: as you say, I mean a lot of these boats

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Speaker 1: can stay up for a while. So good luck with

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Speaker 1: the ideas. Thank you. Clifton Clifton Hill, Senior vice president

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Speaker 1: at Arcadian or Acadian asset management,