1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: What's going on everybody? Scott Bogman for Betting Pros to 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: tell you about my favorite bets and picks for Week 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,719 Speaker 1: one of the college football season. I'm gonna stick to 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,559 Speaker 1: totals here and let's go ahead and start with Voughtech 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: at Vandy. The total here is forty eight and a half. 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,479 Speaker 1: Tickets are on the over, cash is on the under here. 7 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: But I like Vaughtech. They return nine to eleven starters. 8 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: They really hit their stride at the end of last 9 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,240 Speaker 1: season as well, averaging forty three points per game. Vandy, 10 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: they do have that brutal schedule against the SEC. Everyone 11 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: thinks they're a bad team and they're not great, but 12 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: that schedule doesn't help them. They have lost their last 13 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 1: six games against power for non SEC opponents, but they're 14 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: averaging twenty four and a half points per game scored 15 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,919 Speaker 1: in those and they haven't scored fewer than seventeen points 16 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: in those games for the last six. And they're also 17 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: they've also lost all those games and average giving up 18 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: thirty eight and a half points per games. So if 19 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: they score their minimum seventeen and they're giving up on 20 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: average thirty eight and a half, already home, right, but 21 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: also Vandy adds Diego Pavilla, the Conference USA Offensive player 22 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 1: of the Year from New Mexico, to help improve this offense. 23 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: This is a home game for them. I don't know 24 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: that the defense is going to be able to stop 25 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: Virginia Tech in this offense that has continuity and is clicking, 26 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: but they should put up some points themselves. I feel 27 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: like so I like the over for this game. The 28 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: total is low, it's under fifty, it's forty eight and 29 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: a half. So I like the over for that one. 30 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: I do like the under, and why wouldn't I In 31 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: the Iowa versus Illinois State game. This one is at Iowa. 32 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 1: The total is forty and a half tickets and Casher 33 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: on the over, and I think you look at this game, 34 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: you may think, well, FCS team against one of the 35 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 1: better defenses, maybe that defense is going to get picked sixes. 36 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: Turnovers set up this offense that is. You know, we'll 37 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: be nice and say less than average for Iowa, but 38 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: it's been pretty miserable recently. Last season, twelve of their 39 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: fourteen games played to the under. In every single one 40 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: of those unders, they scored fewer than forty points. The 41 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: totals forty and a half here, and they did lose 42 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: Cooper Deshen, Iowa to the NFL. It's a massive part 43 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: of this defense. Their punt returner as well, a big 44 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: spark a big team. But they're ninth in defensive returning 45 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,959 Speaker 1: production this season, returning nine of our eight starters of 46 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: this defense. So I just really really like the under 47 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: forty and a half here. I think it's going to 48 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: trend to what we've seen recently from Iowa. Let's go 49 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: to another under that I like here. It's UTEP at 50 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 1: Nebraska and it's forty eight and a half is a 51 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 1: total tickets and cash on the over, so if you 52 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: want to fade me, you can follow the public. UTEP 53 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 1: goes into the season with a new head coach, Scottie 54 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 1: Walden from Austin, paight p and they they were good 55 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: and they improved last season. But this UTEP roster is 56 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: going over a complete and total transformation. So this is 57 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 1: going to be first reps on the road at Nebraska. 58 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,959 Speaker 1: I don't really like their odds in this game. Nebraska 59 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: is starting a true freshman with a new head coach 60 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: as well. Matt Ruhle comes over from the Panthers to 61 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: be the head coach of Nebraska after having success all 62 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: over the place in college before this, but with a 63 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: brand new starter. And they're playing Colorado next week, and 64 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: we saw Colorado's gonna put up points, right, So I 65 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 1: think you're going to keep this offense for Nebraska fairly vanilla. 66 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: You're not gonna put a lot on film. You're going 67 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 1: to be running the ball a lot. So I like 68 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: this under forty eight and a half, and I just 69 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: don't think that UTEP is going to score many points. 70 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: If you want to follow along, you can check out 71 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: the Betting Pro's app, and if you want Betting Pro's 72 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: Premium for free, all you have to do is download 73 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app, activate the app, and get your 74 00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: free trial by going to the upgrade screen on the app. 75 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: Do that and you'll get expert picks, projections, are prop 76 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: bet Analyzer, custom line alerts, and much more for the MLB, 77 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: NFL and college football, so not just college football. The 78 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: app can help you with all kinds of sports and 79 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,559 Speaker 1: all your betting needs. Go and get your free trial 80 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: at Betting Pros Premium Today. Let's stick to another under 81 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: UCLA at Hawaii. The total here is fifty two and 82 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: a half. This one I'm actually following along with the public. 83 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 1: Tickets and cash are on the under as well, and 84 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: UCLA is replacing a lot on defense to lot too 85 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: is gone. They're not going to be the same defense 86 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: that held teams to under twenty points per game last season. 87 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: They were fourteenth and eighteen point three points per game. 88 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: But they should have enough strength to hold Hawaii down. 89 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: I feel like UCLA also has issues on offense. Ethan 90 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: Garber's not the greatest of quarterbacks, only five returning starters 91 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: and new head coach and new offensive coordinator, so continuity 92 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: could be an issue for Hawaii. This is a travel 93 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: game or for UCLA. This is a travel game to 94 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 1: Hawaii for them as well. They have Indiana next week, 95 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: so once again, the same logic that I'm using for 96 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: Nebraska going into next week. Right facing a tougher opponent, 97 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: you're not gonna put a lot on film. And when 98 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: you're facing Indiana, who I talked about in the win total, 99 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 1: I like them to go over. I think it's gonna 100 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 1: be tough for UCLA to really open it up and 101 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: show what they want. This would have to be a 102 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 1: closer game, which would probably play to our favor to 103 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: the under as well, Let's go to two overs. I'm 104 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: done with Dunders, no more under his life's too short 105 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: to bet the under, I say, but there are a 106 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: couple I like here, but let's go to overs. Let's 107 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:47,039 Speaker 1: go to over forty nine and a half for Southern 108 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 1: Miss at Kentucky. And look, Kentucky is replacing big pieces 109 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: on offense. They return five starters, two of those are 110 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: all SEC players, nine of eleven defensive starters as well. 111 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: So what I say see here in this game, it's 112 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:05,840 Speaker 1: just a massive mismatch for Kentucky versus Southern Miss and 113 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: under head coach Will Hall, Southern Miss has been dominated 114 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 1: by P four teams, giving up on average fifty points 115 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: per game. Here, it's just not a great totals for 116 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: Southern Miss against these teams. I think Kentucky does the 117 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: heavy lifting here, probably forty two. So can we get 118 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: ten from Southern Miss or you know, a couple extra 119 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 1: turnovers for touchdowns or something. I just think this is 120 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: a very reachable total, and I think Kentucky can do most, 121 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: if not all of it by themselves. So we're only 122 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: asking a little bit from Southern Miss on offense, So 123 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: I like that over and this one. You actually have 124 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: heard me talk about LSU versus USC. We've talked about 125 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: a lot this week, and I like the over here. 126 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: USC's defense is undergoing an overhaul. They were ranked a 127 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: hundred twenty first last season. LSU eighty first in points 128 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: per game last season. They're also both these teams are 129 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: getting new coordinators on defense to try to improve this. 130 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley has never going back to Oklahoma, has not 131 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: had strong defenses. He is an offensive minded coach. He 132 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: wants to outscore the opponents. That's what they're gonna do. 133 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 1: And we are replacing two Heisman level quarterbacks in this game. 134 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: I understand Caleb Williams Jade Daniel's gone for these teams, 135 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: but nuss Meyer three hundred ninety five yards and three 136 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: touchdowns in the bowl game at a neutral site, as 137 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: this game is going to be a neutral site game 138 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: in Las Vegas for these teams. We saw Miller Moss 139 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: throw six touchdowns last season, and there's talent gone on 140 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: the offense from USC, but they keep resacking in the 141 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: wide receivers might be better this season at USC. They're 142 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: just incredible. We know Lincoln Riley can design up an offense. 143 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: The total is sixty four. I know it's a high total. 144 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,559 Speaker 1: I know people may not like it with that much 145 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: being replaced on offense for these teams, particularly at the 146 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: quarterback position, But I just think both these defenses are bad. 147 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: I don't think they get fixed overnight. These are two 148 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: teams may to run through strong offenses. They have quarterbacks 149 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: with a little experience at least coming in here. So 150 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: I like the over sixty four in that game. I'm 151 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: gonna give you a couple of player props here. And 152 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: this West Virginia and Penn State game. I know a 153 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: lot of people are on the West Virginia side. I'm 154 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: not I think the roster strength is too big. And 155 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: I respect Morgantown and West Virginia. They can make it 156 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: hell to play for a lot of teams. I just 157 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: think Penn State is a team that can potentially make 158 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: the tournament. This is the potential top ten team coming 159 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: in here. And I know we've had issues from Drew Aller, 160 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:53,959 Speaker 1: but he the only game he threw for three hundred 161 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: yards last season was against West Virginia. And there are 162 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: climbing props over at d for the pass yards for 163 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: dualer and I'm going to go over two hundred and 164 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: fifty is plus two thirty. You can buy this for more. 165 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: There are more totals that will give you better odds 166 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: and longer odds. And I'm gonna pair it with his 167 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: teammate wide receiver Julian Fleming coming over the transfer from 168 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: Ohio State, big time, big time recruit, didn't get much obviously. 169 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: Ohio State has had unbelievable wide receivers there, so he 170 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: goes to Penn State where he can be more of 171 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 1: the man. Well, his sixty yard prop is plus three 172 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,680 Speaker 1: ninety in this game. He could be Penn State's number 173 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: one wide receiver this season. So sixty yards against West 174 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: Virginia I think that's doable for Julian Fleming here, So 175 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: definitely a possibility. And another game that I'm kind of 176 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: the opposite as most people are picking. A lot of 177 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: people are picking the under on this TCU Standford game. 178 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: Stanford wide receiver Lko manor over one hundred receiving yards 179 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: on DK is going to double up your money right now. 180 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 1: It's plus two to fifteen, so it's a risky bet, 181 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: right he only hit one hundred yards three times last 182 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: season they were all in overs. I like this game 183 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: as an over. Stanford returns nine to eleven starters. They 184 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 1: have a lot of oars on the depth chart. I 185 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: don't know. I think that we're going to see a 186 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: better offense. I'm not gonna sit here and tell you 187 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: the Stanford's offense is going to be good. But TCU 188 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: comes in with issues. They brought in Andy Avlos. They're 189 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: changing the whole defensive scheme for TCU isn't going to 190 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: work on the road. Week one. We've seen Stanford upset 191 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: you know, bigger teams than this TCU team right here. 192 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: I think that it's definitely possible that Stanford is in 193 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: this game. I'm not going to tell you they're gonna 194 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 1: win it, or money line or anything crazy like that. 195 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:47,599 Speaker 1: I think TCU is still way better. Sunny Dikes is 196 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: a good coach. But I do think AA Maynor one 197 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 1: way or the other, whether it's losing to TCU or 198 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 1: if Stanford is winning this game, it's because AA Manor 199 00:10:57,720 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 1: has taken over and gone nuts, like he did in 200 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: the Colorado game last year where he went thirteen for 201 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: two ninety four and two touchdowns. You can take away 202 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: ninety of those yards because a cornerback slipped right. That's 203 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 1: still twelve catches for two ninety and a score. So 204 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: after that game, after that breakout game, they played seven more. 205 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: He had double digit targets in four of those games 206 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 1: and the three that were under his target totals were nine, 207 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: eight and six. So am and is going to see 208 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: the ball a lot. Regardless of how this game goes. 209 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: They're either going to run the offense through him or 210 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 1: run it to him. So I am all about Ama 211 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: and Or and this one. It's my favorite prop bet 212 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 1: of the week for college football. And that is what 213 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: I got. If you guys want to follow along or 214 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: if you want to fade me, you can check out 215 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: the VP app to do it. So that is it 216 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 1: for me. Follow me on Twitter, app, blog, and sports 217 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: and I will see you guys next week. Take it easy, everybody, 218 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: and good luck with all your bets. 219 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 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