1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 2: Joe Wisenthal is in town. I'm pretty sure this has 7 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: never happened, at least in the nation's capital since I've 8 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: been to Bloomber the Stalwart. He's with me at the table. 9 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 2: Of course, the host co host of the Odd Lots 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: podcast even put a tie on. 11 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 3: This is Can you believe this? They put a tie on? 12 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 3: I put it, I put you put the tie, I 13 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 3: put the tie. 14 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 2: Cleaned up a little bit, jo Is that? Are you 15 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: feeling the capital it? 16 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 3: Because I'm feeling the capital vibes. I'm like, okay, I'm. 17 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 2: Very serious, surrounded by marble. 18 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 3: Things going on. Yeah, it's like, all right, I better 19 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 3: put on it. Okay, meet the moment. 20 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 2: I want to hear about what you have planned for tonight. 21 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 4: Yeah. I know. 22 00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: Hundreds of people are lined up to watch the taping 23 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 2: of what I believe is Bloomberg's biggest podcast. 24 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 3: I think that's right. Yeah, that is right. 25 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 2: I've heard about that from people. But I want to 26 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 2: ask you about what the hell's going on in the 27 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: market here, because it's not coming easy. And now even 28 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,119 Speaker 2: an attempt at recovery yesterday when the President pulled back 29 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 2: on some of the that that fizzled, and you've got people, 30 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 2: you know, the charts are broken talking about the beginning 31 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 2: of something maybe a lot worse. 32 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really weird. It's time. I mean, it's great 33 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:27,199 Speaker 3: in our business. 34 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 2: Let's be honest. 35 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 3: There's plenty to talk about. 36 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 2: There isn't Let's just be real. Let's just be a 37 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:32,679 Speaker 2: real security. 38 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 3: For a second. There's plenty to talk about. 39 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 5: But it feels like we're in an uncharted territory because, 40 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 5: you know, even with the expectation that the new administration 41 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 5: would be, you know, take a much more terror friendly 42 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 5: approach than the prior administration, we didn't expect from day 43 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 5: one that the key targets would be Canada and Mexico. 44 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 3: And the fundamental thing is, we don't know why. 45 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 5: We don't know what the ask is, we don't know 46 00:01:57,600 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 5: what the purpose is, and we don't know what it's 47 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 5: gonna look like. 48 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 3: And it seems to change by the day. And you 49 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 3: hear this thing. 50 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 5: You know, businesses always say it, they see, oh, we 51 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 5: want certainty, we just want to know the rules. We 52 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 5: just want to know, you know, and they usually appli 53 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 5: as to regulation. You know, if we have like permanent, 54 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 5: substantial tariffs against all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, 55 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 5: then that's a serious long term planning project to adjust 56 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 5: for that. Well, what does it still make economic sense 57 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 5: to buy from Canada or in Mexico? What do we 58 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 5: have to commit the billions of dollars to domestic supply change. 59 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 5: I think these are huge decisions that you don't make overnight, 60 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 5: et cetera. But in the meantime, you know, we don't 61 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 5: you know, they seem to change by the day, So 62 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 5: you certainly can't plan anything long term until like, okay, 63 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 5: this is the new fixed relationship and it doesn't seem 64 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 5: like run anywhere. 65 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 2: If somebody make out a lot of money trading volatility, 66 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm. 67 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 5: Sure there are I'm sure that ball sellers of various 68 00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 5: flavors trading desks who sort of basically benefit from sheer 69 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 5: volume have done really well. But by and large, you know, 70 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,239 Speaker 5: this is sort of the classic thing that investors don't 71 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 5: like to see. And then there's another interesting dynamic, which 72 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 5: is an even prior to the tariffs, there are reasonable 73 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 5: arguments to say that the economy was already slowing down, 74 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 5: that the labor market was softening, that there are conditions 75 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 5: in place that otherwise would necessitate Okay, let's begin those 76 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 5: FED cuts again. Except the FED doesn't really know the 77 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 5: impact of the tariffs, and so even under all things equal, 78 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 5: the FED can't sort of look at this and sort 79 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 5: of have its normal reaction function where it's like, Okay, 80 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 5: there's this slowdown, we're going to signal more rate cuts 81 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 5: that balance things out, because it really doesn't know what 82 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 5: the inflationary effect on the tariffs are in the first 83 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 5: order because of the impact on prices, and then the 84 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 5: second order, what is going to be the economic effect 85 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 5: of the sort of investment activity that would have to 86 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 5: take to replace international supply chain. 87 00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 3: So very confusing time. 88 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: Very confusing. Yet everyone seems to be feeling good or 89 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 2: trying to make themselves feel good about this CPI today. 90 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: Does that then turn tomorrow when the first tariffs show 91 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 2: up with the PPI. 92 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 5: Well, what I would say is the slow right now, 93 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 5: any snapshot in time obviously has no TERRFF effect, And 94 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 5: what it does is sort of confirm this notion that 95 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 5: prior to right now and prior to all of this confusion, 96 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 5: the economy is on track for softening. And again this 97 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 5: gets back to the idea that okay, like the FED 98 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 5: can look at softening jobs data, it can look at 99 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 5: softening price data and say, yeah, this is the playbook 100 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 5: as we cut rates, and the market likes that except 101 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 5: for that tariff wild card, and so that normal relationship 102 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 5: may not apply quite to the same degree as what 103 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 5: I normally expect to see it. 104 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, this is an awfully difficult moment when we 105 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 2: know more could still be coming. Yeah, so there's talk 106 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 2: of capitulation, right what do you look at? What does 107 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: that look like this time? Is it? Is it the 108 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: VIX it one hundred, is it the S and P 109 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 2: five hundred and four thousand? Or do these metrics not 110 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 2: matter right now? Well? 111 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 3: I mean I think in the short term. 112 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 5: You know, when you see a huge spike of the 113 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 5: VIX you could say, okay, maybe that means that we're 114 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 5: in some sort of near term selling point. Yes, you know, 115 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 5: that's what history usually says in the medium term, the 116 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 5: direction of the market will be determined by the direction 117 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 5: of the economy. Ultimately, when we have like real sustained 118 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 5: bear markets, they happen because of recessions. And so in 119 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 5: the short term, yay, a little panic, a little unwind. 120 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 5: You have momentum trades that were really popular and suddenly 121 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 5: they're not popular, and so entities that are short term 122 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 5: in nature have to sell, and maybe they're selling gets exhausted. 123 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 5: But the end, like the market is determined by earnings, 124 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 5: and earnings are determined by the real economy, and so 125 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 5: you know, any sort of for any actual like capital 126 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 5: I investor listening to this, the only thing that really 127 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 5: matters for the stock market is what happens with the 128 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 5: trajectory of the economy and earnings. 129 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 2: Yet, what just happened since the inauguration is a I 130 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 2: guess even the election has been My god, we just 131 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 2: took the most incredible round trip. 132 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:10,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right of our lives. 133 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 2: I don't know what we thought we were doing there 134 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: for a minute. 135 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 5: Well, it's interesting because if you think back to when 136 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 5: Trump one in twenty sixteen, there was a lot of 137 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 5: perception that he would be bad for the market, the 138 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 5: uncertainty candidate, right, and then famously that night of the 139 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 5: election stock futures planning. Yeah, and then he was, from 140 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 5: the market's perspective of a great president. You know, lines 141 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 5: just kept going up when he passed tax cuts. And 142 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 5: I would say his administration was what I would say, 143 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 5: sort of like a normal or Republican administration. They did 144 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 5: tax cuts and not really a whole lot else. Probably 145 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 5: some deregulation, et cetera, but not a whole lot else. 146 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 5: And so I think when he won this time around, 147 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 5: people remember the twenty twenty, the twenty sixteen playbook plays, 148 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 5: he was great. And so it's like, oh, we're going 149 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 5: to clear this big merger paglog backlog that we have, 150 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 5: and we're going to get deregulation, we're going to get 151 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 5: tax cuts, all things that investors really like, and all 152 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 5: this stuff about tariffs and the sort of America First 153 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 5: agenda was like, he'll forget about that. It turns out 154 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 5: that that's the priority from de Oni. 155 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, you're putting your finger on it here, and so 156 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 2: that turned out to be the priority. 157 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 5: And yeah, like and even on the merger, the funny 158 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 5: thing is, so are you even on the merger front, 159 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 5: which was supposed to be this big boon to Wall 160 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 5: Street because all the deals were being held up. Even 161 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 5: it doesn't even seem like there's been that much of 162 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 5: a turn from the last administration on that in terms 163 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 5: of green lighting and mergers. So it's basically the exact 164 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 5: opposite of what investors were thinking about all from early 165 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 5: November to sort of late December. 166 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 2: So you're glad you didn't buy Animal Spirits dot Com 167 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 2: because everybody was just looking at it. 168 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 5: Anything that was sort of speculative and nature. Yeah, we're 169 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 5: talking Tesla, Crypto, right, whatever, just in video. 170 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 2: All of it went to the launchpad. So let me 171 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 2: ask you then about creative destruction. Yes, because that's kind 172 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 2: of what we're hearing about, right, short term pain, guys, 173 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 2: But we're resetting the dial here. This is going to 174 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 2: result in long term growth. Don't obsess over the next 175 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 2: six months. Yeah, but of course the stock market's looking 176 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 2: beyond six months in many occasions. See what we're talking about. 177 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: What do you see? 178 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 5: The notion of short term pain for long term gain 179 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 5: is certainly a legitimate idea, but I think the problem 180 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 5: is we don't know what that long term gain looks 181 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 5: like right now, because you know, first of all, there's 182 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 5: just the straight up ambiguity of like how much our 183 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 5: company is going to have to reshore supply chains and 184 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:32,719 Speaker 5: how good will that be and will that really be 185 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 5: good for profitability or are they just going to be 186 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 5: less efficient supply chains. But also when you think about 187 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 5: you know, countries that undergo some sort of major economic 188 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 5: restructuring cut in some areas, but then you like try 189 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 5: to create incentives for investment in other areas. So in 190 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,319 Speaker 5: this case, you know, what kind of investments are there 191 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 5: going to be for domestic technology, domestic manufacturing and so forth. 192 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 3: We haven't really seen the positive vision, do you know 193 00:08:58,200 --> 00:08:59,559 Speaker 3: the negative aspect? 194 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 5: You know, I think back to you know, China actually 195 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 5: several years ago when they purposely pricked their own real 196 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 5: estate bubble. I wanted to cause several years of market pain, 197 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 5: but it was accompanied by this very long term, sort 198 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 5: of deep strategy of like Okay, we want to race ahead, 199 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 5: and AI we want to race ahead, and chips I 200 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 5: want to race ahead, and biotech, etc. So there was 201 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 5: the positive vision that sort of went along with like 202 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 5: the short term pain. Right now, we're getting the short 203 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 5: term pain, but we don't really know what that sort 204 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 5: of like positive vision where those engines of growth are 205 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 5: going to be. Once we've reoriented the economy, there's. 206 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 2: Going to be a little more conversation about short term 207 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 2: pain coming from the President Donald Trump and the t shock. 208 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 2: The Irish Prime Minister just wrapping up their meeting in 209 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: the Oval Office. So we'll get our hands on that 210 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:47,439 Speaker 2: conversation free in a moment, you break it out the 211 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 2: telly tonight. 212 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 3: I'm not breaking out the telly. 213 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 5: So we're doing as you alluded to, we're doing a 214 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 5: live taping of our podcast. There are still some balcony tickets. 215 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 5: We've sold out the floor. 216 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 3: Look at the mirror standing room here in Washington, d C. 217 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 3: Everyone should everyone should come to that. There are still 218 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 3: some tickets available. 219 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 5: We speaking of mergers, we're gonna we have the new 220 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 5: FTC chief, Andrew Ferguson excellent. Uh So we're gonna talk 221 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 5: about the new merger guidelines we're gonna have. We're gonna 222 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 5: speaking of tech and Ai Blair Levin used to be 223 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 5: at the FCC under Clinton and then. 224 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 3: On Wall Street. 225 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 5: We're gonna relive war stories from the telecom bubble, which 226 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 5: was I think the last time investors were in thrall 227 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 5: to this a sort of a tech infrastructure build out. 228 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 5: Are there some parallels to AI? And then we're gonna 229 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 5: have a debate on the Jones Act. We should be 230 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 5: really fun. It's the law that restricts domestic shipping to 231 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 5: US built carriers. 232 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 3: We have someone from the pro side, someone from the 233 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 3: anti side. That should be fun. I'm gonna play a 234 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 3: few songs on guitar so I have I'm like, I 235 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 3: had a cough. I'm a little worried about that. 236 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 2: So you'll say great to me, man, this are you kidding? 237 00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 2: So seven o'clock doors. 238 00:10:59,120 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 3: Seven o'clock doors. 239 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,959 Speaker 2: It's the Miracle Theater in Southeast Washington. 240 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 3: For people there's nothing better to do in Washington tonight than. 241 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 2: I can attest to that. For people not in the 242 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 2: Capitol tonight, they'll hear the podcast. 243 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, the episode. 244 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 5: So we're gonna get a few episodes out of the 245 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 5: live take it super and they'll be out on all 246 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 5: the feeds, Apple, Spotify, elsewhere, odd lots, wherever you get your. 247 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 3: Podcast next week. 248 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 2: This is the best. You gotta do this more often. 249 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:22,559 Speaker 6: I know. 250 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:23,559 Speaker 3: I love coming down. 251 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 2: It's great to see it. Congratulations having me absolutely on 252 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 2: all your success. If you're not subscribed to the Odd 253 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 2: Lots podcast, you're the only one. You can find it 254 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 2: on Apple or Spotify and your life will improve. 255 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 256 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, 257 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can 258 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 259 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 260 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 2: The headline today Putin likely to drag out Ukraine truce 261 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 2: talks to seek terms. You might have heard the head 262 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 2: line earlier that he was eventually set to agree to 263 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 2: a truce. I'm still scratching my head on this a 264 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 2: little bit, as Ukraine, the country that was invaded, surely 265 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 2: would agree to a truce in that invasion. So yes, 266 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 2: the ball is in Russia's court. Emily Dominich is an 267 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,599 Speaker 2: expert on this conversation, and I'm glad to say with 268 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 2: us here in the studio as we wait to hear 269 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 2: from the President and the Prime Minister's senior vice president. 270 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: Boundary Stone Partners and a veteran of Washington and the 271 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 2: Speaker's Office. Senior policy advisor to both Speakers of the House, 272 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson. Wonderful to see you, Thanks 273 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 2: for coming. 274 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:38,079 Speaker 6: In, Thanks for having me. 275 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 2: You've got a background, of course, in the area that 276 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 2: we're talking about here, and there are a lot of 277 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 2: questions about whether this mineral deal will be signed imminently, 278 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 2: as this apparently what unlock talks. But when you hear 279 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 2: this kind of language from Vladimir Putin, can we take 280 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 2: this seriously this process. 281 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:56,719 Speaker 7: I think we've heard Secretary Rubio say this over and 282 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 7: over again, that will know whether or not Putin is 283 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 7: serious based on what are willing to agree to at 284 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 7: the negotiating table. There's no way to find out whether 285 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 7: or not they're serious about peace unless we have those conversations. 286 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 7: I also think you've seen really incredible work from Secretary Rubio, 287 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,599 Speaker 7: from Mike Waltz, from the National Security team in the 288 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 7: White House to really sort of get these talks back 289 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,679 Speaker 7: on track following that disastrous White House meeting with Selensky 290 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 7: a few weeks ago. 291 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 6: We've really seen them get people to the table. 292 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 7: They've had serious meetings, they're having discussions about getting the 293 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 7: mineral deals signed and moving forward. And we have Ukraine 294 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,199 Speaker 7: now talking about being willing to accept a ceasefire while 295 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 7: they continue to negotiate. So I think we're seeing progress here, 296 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:33,599 Speaker 7: and again we kind of won't know whether or not 297 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 7: Putin is serious until they come to the table. 298 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 2: Progress after the setback in that meeting, as you describe, 299 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 2: are we back to where we were before that happened? 300 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 7: I believe so, And I think again that's really a 301 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 7: testament to President Trump's team getting them back to the 302 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 7: table and being serious here. But you know, it would 303 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 7: have been better to avoid that and sign the deal 304 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 7: two weeks ago, because we'd be two weeks closer to 305 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 7: a peace deal that Ukraine desperately needs. 306 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, so let's talk about off ramps here for 307 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: a minute. You would think that it would be a 308 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 2: foregone conclusion that Ukraine would want a ceasefire or a truce. 309 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,599 Speaker 2: Maybe I shouldn't assume that. I also would assume that 310 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 2: Russia might as well, considering the loss financially, the human 311 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 2: toll of following three years of war, isn't everyone looking 312 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 2: for an offerant. 313 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 7: One would certainly hope. I think that's what you've heard 314 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 7: from President Trump over and over again. Is the loss 315 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 7: of life, the catastrophic damage to this country, the catastrophic 316 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 7: damage to other parts of Europe as their economy struggle 317 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 7: because of this war. I think he's very in tune 318 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 7: to the damage that's come of this three year conflict 319 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 7: and wants to end it as quickly as possible. I 320 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 7: think the challenge here is there have to be some 321 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 7: you know, Putin wants to save face with his supporters, 322 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 7: Ukraine wants to save territory. And I truly believe that 323 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 7: the Mineral deal, frankly, is one of the best ways 324 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 7: to resolve this conflict because it makes the United States 325 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 7: an economic partner of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people in 326 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 7: a way that we haven't seen in other peace deals. 327 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 7: So I think that puts the United States with a 328 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 7: direct interest in the prosperity of that country in a 329 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 7: way that frankly, you know, one off aid packages don't do. 330 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 2: Now I'm supposed to ask you about security guaranties right 331 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 2: at this point of the conversation, and our audience should 332 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 2: know that you actually serve in the Navy, You're a warrior, 333 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 2: You've worked at the Pentagon. That might color your perception 334 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 2: of this whole idea. But this is a White House 335 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 2: that seems very reluctant to offer at least military security guarantees. 336 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 2: They say, this investment is the equivalent of that. Do 337 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 2: you believe that? 338 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 7: I really do, And I would say I think we 339 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 7: often find ourselves, you know, where we were providing military services, 340 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 7: either in the form of weapons or weapons aid, or 341 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 7: in you know, training exercises and things along those lines. 342 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 7: But the economic partnership that could come here again provides 343 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 7: the United States with a real interest in the prosperity 344 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 7: of Ukraine in a way that we never would if 345 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 7: we were just simply providing military aid. Again, any sort 346 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 7: of one off packages that we've seen go through Congress, 347 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 7: you always are left with, well, what comes next? What 348 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 7: happens when this money runs out? What happens when this 349 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 7: funding runs out? Instead, we'd have this long term partnership. 350 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 7: We're looking to develop these really really critical minerals, for 351 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 7: high tech materials, for nuclear power, for all the kinds 352 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 7: of things we need to be able to see a 353 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 7: more prosperous global community. So I think, frankly, like again, 354 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 7: that economic partnership model is a really unique way to 355 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 7: think about foreign aid, and I think it serves us 356 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 7: well going forward. 357 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 2: What kind of military aid should Ukraine count on in 358 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 2: a world where there is in fact a deal that 359 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 2: is signed here. We've talked a lot about this, certainly 360 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 2: in the Biden years, where so many Republican members said 361 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 2: not another dollar. There is still some unspent money, but 362 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 2: there are also questions about the programs we invested in. 363 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 2: Should we have sent M one abrams, tanks and F 364 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 2: sixteen's when we might have been better off sending long 365 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 2: range missiles and interceptors. How do you see that? 366 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 7: I think we want to be able to see us 367 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 7: develop long term partnerships with the countries that we support. 368 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 7: That means that we shouldn't be doing knee jerk policymaking, 369 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 7: even when it comes to providing aid on the military side, 370 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 7: Developing the ability for Ukraine and frankly the rest of 371 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 7: Europe to make more investments in their own security is 372 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 7: something that the United States can support by being a 373 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 7: good trading partner. So I think we'll see more stuff 374 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 7: in the economic space, and perhaps less on the military side, 375 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 7: where we can have those shared goals and interests. 376 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 2: Yes, do tariffs impact procurement of military equipment. You talk 377 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 2: about all of the things that we need, from chips 378 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 2: to metals to rare earths that are actually part of 379 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 2: our military hardware. This is something that defense contractors are 380 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 2: going to have to face. 381 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 6: Aren't they absolutely? 382 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,120 Speaker 7: And I think again this is part of where those 383 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 7: trade negotiations become so important. I think about the discussions 384 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 7: with Canada, for example, which is a place you know, 385 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 7: they provide many of our critical minerals and have some 386 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 7: of that materials processing capability that we don't have in 387 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 7: the United States. But I also think it comes back 388 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 7: to what's your domestic policy. How do you reshure some 389 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 7: of these industries that we've allowed to be really outsourced 390 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 7: to a place where perhaps our national security is threatened. 391 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 7: I think you saw that with the investments in you know, 392 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,400 Speaker 7: through the Chips Act, in other places where we're trying 393 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 7: to work to bring these partners back home. The problem here, though, 394 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 7: is that oftentimes when we make investments in the United States, 395 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 7: we don't stop folks from continuing to produce those same 396 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 7: materials in China, and that means we're not spending our 397 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 7: money in a smart way. So I think what you'll 398 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 7: see from President Trump is an effort to say, hey, look, 399 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 7: we want you to come do business here in the 400 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 7: United States. We're going to try to provide a tax 401 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 7: code and a regulatory environment that makes that the best 402 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 7: place to do business. You're the best place to do business. 403 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 7: But if you're going to do business in the United States, 404 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 7: we don't want to see you continue to do business 405 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 7: in China. 406 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, that's right, And that does seem to be 407 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 2: a bipartisan absolutely angle here in Washington right now. I 408 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 2: want to ask you, speaking of bipartisan, we didn't see 409 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 2: a lot of bipartisanship on Capitol Hill yesterday when the 410 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 2: stop gap to prevent a government shutdown came to the 411 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 2: House floor. And that's not a big surprise. Maybe it 412 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 2: was a surprise that a single Democrat voted for it, actually, 413 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 2: but there's a real concern about crs, as we call them, 414 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,919 Speaker 2: continuing resolutions that basically extend the baseline kick the can 415 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 2: I think we saw a six billion dollar increase in 416 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 2: pentagon spending that was at it at the last minute here, 417 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 2: but pentagon hawks, defense hawks are outraged about this budgeting 418 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: by cry upon year because it acts as a budget cut. 419 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 2: Can you explain that. 420 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, so if you don't adjust for inflation, then you're 421 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 7: essionally inflation. That's certainly part of it, But it also 422 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 7: means you can't manage the Pentagon in an effective way. 423 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 7: You can't end programs that should be ended, and you 424 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,439 Speaker 7: can't start new ones that need to be begun. Frankly, 425 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 7: I think it's the kind of thing that can make 426 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 7: it more difficult to identify fraud, waste and abuse across 427 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 7: the across the Pentagon complex and to provide the cost 428 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 7: savings that we need in order to pay for the 429 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 7: new weapon systems that we need into the future. So 430 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 7: it is a clumsy way to do business, to operate 431 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 7: under crs. Unfortunately, we live in an environment where getting 432 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 7: the appropriations work done in a timely manner has been 433 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 7: a real challenge. I think you know, in this case, 434 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 7: the CR was the best option to make sure we 435 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 7: can get onto doing the tax reform work that's really 436 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,479 Speaker 7: necessary under reconciliation and sort of clear the decks here. 437 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 7: But it would have been better to work through this 438 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:52,959 Speaker 7: last year and get to a place where we had 439 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 7: good appropriations going through the year. And I'm hopeful that 440 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 7: we'll see that sort of return to regular order in 441 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 7: the summer when we get through the reconciliar process. I 442 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 7: fully expect that from Tom Cole, who runs the Appropriations 443 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 7: Committee on the outside, and I think their Senate counterparts 444 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:08,239 Speaker 7: will want to move just as well. 445 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 1: Well. 446 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 2: I'd love to hear a little bit more about what 447 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 2: that would look like. Give us a peak. If the 448 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 2: imagine a world in which there's regular order, there's a 449 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 2: defense authorization and an actual military budget that's debated in 450 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 2: a committee in pasted. This is revolutionary. I know what 451 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 2: I'm talking about here, But what would it mean for 452 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 2: weapons systems, for the investments that we're making As we 453 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 2: keep hearing that we're preparing for the wrong war, that 454 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 2: we need to be buying more drones unmanned vehicles, not 455 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 2: more aircraft carriers. What do you think? 456 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 7: So I'll push back a little bit on the more 457 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 7: aircraft carriers because I do think that shipbuilding is a 458 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 7: critical part of certainly our power project ultimate. 459 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 2: Projection of power that has that's a job, and what 460 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 2: goes on those aircraft carriers. 461 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 7: I think this is a great example of where you 462 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 7: need to be able to have that flexibility to start 463 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 7: new programs and make investments in the kind of innovative 464 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 7: work that we've seen the Pentagon do over and over 465 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 7: on Frankly, they've gotten really good at operating and c 466 00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 7: are they still do it. We still pass that Defense 467 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:00,439 Speaker 7: Authorization build every year. 468 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 2: It's the only bill that we can close this time. 469 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 6: We've done every single year. 470 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 7: It gets closer every time, and we often get defense 471 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 7: appropriations done even when we're operating in a cr because 472 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 7: it's something that, as you said, those sort of Republican 473 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 7: defense hawks really insist on. 474 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 6: But I think in this case, one of the things 475 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 6: we need to do to make. 476 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 7: Sure we're better providing for the warfighter is actually go 477 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 7: through and get the Pentagon to a place where it 478 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 7: can pass an audit and we can tell where all 479 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 7: of our money is going, because right now it's an 480 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 7: agency that has never passed an audit. We do not 481 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 7: know where our dollars are going in the most important 482 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 7: part of the federal government. So I think that's a 483 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 7: huge task for Secretary Headset and something they're trying to 484 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 7: prioritize here because everyone like myself, I worked in the 485 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 7: Pentagon as a civilian. Everyone who worked there as a 486 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 7: civilian or in the military knows there is a catastrophic 487 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 7: amount of waste there that prevents us from giving the 488 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,880 Speaker 7: warfighter what they need to succeed both in today's wars. 489 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 2: In your wildest dreams, can you imagine what an audit, 490 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 2: a Pentagon audit would show. 491 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 7: Oh, I mean massive amounts of waste, certainly, and again 492 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 7: everybody has a personal experience with it if they've served 493 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 7: in the military. We all roll our eyes about systems 494 00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 7: that are slow, that force you to buy plane to 495 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 7: take that costs more money than they should, or stay 496 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,919 Speaker 7: somewhere that's more expensive because it is truly a giant bureaucracy. 497 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 7: And again, I think you know, we've seen a lot 498 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 7: from Secretary Hegseeth about wanting. 499 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 6: To change the culture at the Pentagon. 500 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 7: It's my hope that this focus on fiscal responsibility and 501 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 7: being able to actually say we're spending our money in 502 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 7: the best way possible to man, train and equip our warfighter. 503 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 7: I hope that we're able to answer those questions at 504 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 7: the end of this term. 505 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 2: As we spend time with Emily dominant Boundary Stone partners, 506 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 2: give me a sense of the culture in the Pentagon 507 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 2: right now, with massive layoffs at hand, a massive culture shift, 508 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 2: just in the approach of management and style. With Secretary 509 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 2: heg Seth, what's it like when you walk in the halls? 510 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 6: I mean, I would say in the force. 511 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 7: I can't speak for the Pentagon because I'm not there 512 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,960 Speaker 7: on a daily basis, but I would say what you 513 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 7: hear often is a sort of refocus on readiness and 514 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 7: what does readiness mean. It doesn't mean getting all of 515 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 7: your paperwork done for your cybersecurity training or your annual 516 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 7: training that you're checking a box on. 517 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 6: It means making sure that we're physically fit. 518 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 7: It means making sure that we're capable and staffing and 519 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 7: in my case, I work, I'm in the reserves being 520 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 7: able to provide quantifiable skills to the active duty as 521 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 7: they look to fight our future wars. I think it's 522 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 7: a more of an investment in military culture and saying 523 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,120 Speaker 7: that we need to be able to be honest about 524 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 7: where we fall short and where we need to do better. 525 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 7: And we've seen the retention numbers. Frankly, to back that up, 526 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,400 Speaker 7: we're seeing recruitment numbers go up because Secretary Hegseth's persona 527 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 7: is frankly bringing a new sense of pride in service 528 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 7: that I think is something that has been neglected about 529 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 7: the past. 530 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 2: I mean, that's interesting because this is a very controversial pick. 531 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 2: Of course, a lot of his moves have been controversial, 532 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 2: his prior statements, lifestyle, everything has been part of this. 533 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 2: There's been concerned about DEI and so forth. Maybe some 534 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 2: people not being treated fairly, But you see optimism. 535 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 7: Certainly amongst the folks who are serving in the military. Yes, 536 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 7: I'd also say, I think you mentioned DEI as sort 537 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 7: of one of these examples of wasteful things we see 538 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 7: in the Pentagon. Another thing is straying away from the 539 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 7: core missions of the Pentagon. Again, as I said, the 540 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 7: role of the Department of Defense is to man, train, 541 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 7: and equip our war fighters. We want to prepare them 542 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,399 Speaker 7: for the future war and ensure they have the weapons 543 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 7: and technology they need to fight that effectively. We've gotten distracted, frankly, 544 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 7: with thinking about the diversity of the force, thinking about 545 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 7: fighting climate change, thinking about the kinds of policies that 546 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 7: are outside of that scope. It doesn't mean you can't 547 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 7: care about diversity. It doesn't mean you can't have agencies 548 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 7: in the federal government care about energy and being innovative 549 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 7: in that space. But it's not the job of the Pentagon, 550 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 7: and I think that's what we've seen from Secretary Hegxeth 551 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 7: is let's refocus on that core mission. 552 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 2: Still, there's so much more I want to talk to 553 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 2: you about, because diversity has been an asset. I think 554 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 2: we can agree the military is but ahead of the 555 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 2: rest of society for a long time on this, and 556 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 2: the hardening of military installations when it comes to climate 557 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 2: is something that we've talked about a lot here as well. 558 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 2: So I want you to come back. I hope that 559 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 2: you'd love to. We could do a documentary with Emily Commis. 560 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 2: What a great conversation. Thank you so much for being 561 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,120 Speaker 2: with us, Senior VP Boundary Stone Partners. 562 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 563 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn 564 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,360 Speaker 1: on apple Cocklay Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. 565 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 566 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 567 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 8: The Irish Prime Minister actually praising the President's efforts to 568 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,200 Speaker 8: reach a peace deal negotiation since of course active between 569 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 8: the US and Ukraine and now they say the. 570 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 6: Ball is in Russia's court. 571 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:23,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, you might have presumed the ball was already in 572 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 2: Russia's court, which is interesting. I'm sort of compelled by 573 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 2: this idea that it's a victory to get Ukraine to 574 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,239 Speaker 2: agree to a truce in a war that it did 575 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 2: not start. But that is the rhetoric that we're hearing 576 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 2: from the White House right now. We have yet to 577 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 2: hear from Vladimir Putin, although indications based on Bloomberg's reporting 578 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 2: earlier that he will eventually I think was the word 579 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 2: Kayley sign off on this. 580 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,920 Speaker 8: Eventually. I guess it's just a question of timing and 581 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 8: what it's going to take to get one of the 582 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 8: condition to that point. So on that note, we turn 583 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 8: out to our next guest, I'm pleased to say joining 584 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 8: us here on balance of power is General Wesley Clark, 585 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 8: former Supreme Allied Commander for Europe and the thirty four 586 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 8: year veteran of the United States Army. General Welcome back 587 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 8: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. If the ball is in 588 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 8: Russia's court, what exactly do you think they'll do with it? 589 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 4: Well, they've got choices, I mean, they could immediately agree 590 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 4: last night they didn't. As soon as they heard that 591 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 4: Ukraine had accepted it, they launched a heavy bombardment, including 592 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 4: a ballistic missiles track on the Ukrainian ported Odessa that 593 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 4: killed some people in rectass ship. So that was one 594 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 4: choice they didn't do that they could agree in the 595 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,959 Speaker 4: next few days. The question is what will their concessions 596 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 4: will they require and what will the administration ask of 597 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:41,479 Speaker 4: them other than agreeing to halt the fighting temporarily. There 598 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 4: have been ceasefires in the past. They're easy to break, 599 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 4: no one's there to monitor it. If you want to 600 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 4: take a little bit more ground, you take it. That's 601 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 4: what Right has done in the past on this. So 602 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,119 Speaker 4: I think it's a good thing that we're moving forward 603 00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 4: on this. But we just have to count on the 604 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 4: putting the right pressure on Russia to get a real 605 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,400 Speaker 4: ceasefire in place, then something that can be monitored, enforced 606 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,399 Speaker 4: and has some security guarantees behind it. 607 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 2: Well, General, it's great to see you again on Bloomberg. 608 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 2: The conditions we're hearing that Putin wants include a long 609 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 2: term settlement to the war, Ukraine becoming a neutral nation, 610 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 2: reducing its armed forces, and ceding the territory that Russia 611 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 2: has already taken. Does that sound like reality to you? 612 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 4: It sounds like exactly what Russia wanted when they started 613 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 4: at the Iston Bullet agreements, and so they haven't changed 614 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 4: their position. No, I don't think Ukraine can accept that. 615 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 4: But I think it's important that any agreement be brought 616 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 4: back to the people of Ukraine, not something that the 617 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 4: president can Zelensky can simply sign and say, Okay, I've 618 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 4: signed it, I'm done. You want me to leave, I'm leaving, 619 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 4: and here's the agreement. So it's got to come back 620 00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 4: through the Ukrainian Parliament, the Rada. People have to really 621 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 4: understand what it means and it has to be enforceable. 622 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 8: Well, and that gets me back to the point you 623 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,680 Speaker 8: were just making a moment ago general about monitoring, because 624 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 8: we also understand that Russia has conditions around what a 625 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 8: peacekeeping force could or should actually look like. In your mind, 626 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 8: what kind of force is required to actually keep the 627 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 8: peace with the UK and France trying to go it alone. 628 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 8: In Russia, we're able to tolerate NATO aligned nations being 629 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 8: present enough. 630 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 4: Well, I don't think that you can get a force 631 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 4: in there that has any credibility unless it's a NATO force. 632 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 4: It doesn't have to be under NATO can be a 633 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 4: coalition of the willing. How many does it take. You're 634 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 4: not going to get one hundred and fifty thousand, that's 635 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 4: for sure, because Europe can't do it. But if you 636 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 4: put thirty to forty thousand in, if you spread them 637 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 4: out along the line, if you have the authorities to 638 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 4: monitor what's going on on the Russian side, if you 639 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:07,720 Speaker 4: can do inspections for example, if necessary, and if you 640 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 4: put penalties in, and if you only gradually release sanctions 641 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 4: and calibrate the release of sanctions to Russia's compliance, and 642 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 4: stretch out the release of sanctions over at least three years, 643 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 4: that's how long the war has lasted. And if you 644 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 4: haven't given up permanent ownership or legal occupation of these 645 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 4: provinces in Crimea, because you can't allow borders to be 646 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 4: changed by force under international law. So there's a lot 647 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 4: of there's a lot of things that have to be 648 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 4: done to make this workable. Uh, and it's going to 649 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 4: be very tough to get Russia to agree to that. 650 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 2: I think, well, of course, you have unique experience here 651 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 2: as Supreme Alli Commander Europe of NATO. Your experience in Kosovo, 652 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 2: you actually have a sense of what Europe is case 653 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 2: here general. Can you describe that's us. 654 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 4: Well right now? At least as a When I was 655 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 4: in Europe last week, they were hopping mad at the 656 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 4: United States, and I don't think they're going to get 657 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,040 Speaker 4: over this right away. Their question is is the United 658 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 4: States still a reliable ally? If you're a reliable ally, 659 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 4: how could you not side with the victim of aggression 660 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 4: and seem to be more friendly with the aggressor? And 661 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 4: what does that mean for our security? Because in their view, 662 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 4: Ukraine is fighting for Europe's security and it's got the 663 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 4: strongest army in Europe excluding Turkey, So there's a lot 664 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 4: of concern there. Can Europe do more? Yes, but not instantaneously. 665 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 4: Could you put fifteen or twenty thousand soldiers? Sure, especially 666 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 4: if Poland is willing to put some of its forces 667 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 4: up there. But people in Europe are very wary of 668 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 4: mister Putin. He's made his intentions very clear, and they're 669 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 4: under Gray Zone assault with sabotage and bombings of aircraft 670 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 4: and murders of former intelligence officers and cables cut. They 671 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 4: have no illusions about what mister Putin's ultimate design might be. 672 00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 4: Maybe President Trump can can can change all that. But 673 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 4: it's not just Putin. It's you know, three centuries of 674 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 4: legacy of Russian imperialism reaching beyond its borders, intimidating, attempting 675 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 4: to gain control of neighboring countries. And so everyone in 676 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 4: Europe is wary about this. They've relied on the United 677 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 4: States and and and now that reliance is been put 678 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 4: in jeopardy. 679 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 8: Just quickly, General, we only have a minute left here. 680 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 8: But how important is it is that the US has 681 00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,640 Speaker 8: once again started resharing intelligence with Ukraine and allowing aid 682 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 8: flow to continue. 683 00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 4: I think it's very important, but we don't know the 684 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 4: detail the aid flow. I hope they'll just blush it 685 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 4: and put it all in there. But I was told 686 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:07,800 Speaker 4: that even before this happened, it had been sort of 687 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 4: choked down, so Ukraine wasn't getting much. I don't have 688 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 4: the details on that, and I know Ukraine is working 689 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 4: to sort of straighten us out. But yes, it's the 690 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:22,080 Speaker 4: intelligence is critical, and so is the US military assistance. 691 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 2: General, it's great to have you back. Thanks for the insights. 692 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,360 Speaker 2: As always that of course, it's Wesley Clark, former Supreme 693 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 2: Ali Commander Europe. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 694 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 695 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and 696 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 697 00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.