1 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network. Guy, 2 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman. Another big week in met fell. Later 3 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: on in the show, UM, we're gonna have Simon Hunter 4 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: and Damn Ravelle on and we're gonna talk about our 5 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: attempt to win one point five million dollars which had 6 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 1: been started had been going really really well until this 7 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: past weekend. I'm gonna find ways to blame Darren for this. Uh. 8 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: But first up, it's time for the Man, the Myth, 9 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: the Legend from New Orleans representing BOYD Gaming all their 10 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: books in the state of Nevada and throughout the country. 11 00:00:52,600 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: Mr Bob scoot g boom bad, what's going on my man? Uh? 12 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: Listen for all of you who are listening to this show, 13 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: don't forget you can listen to Scooch and I in 14 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: a crazy rundown of everything that's happening in the NFL 15 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: on Sundays from twelve to one. Download the Radio dot 16 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 1: Com app search for you Better you Bet. Listen to 17 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: it on Radio dot Com for you Better you Bet. 18 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: It's the Action Network countdown to kick off, and it is, 19 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: like Scooch tell me, it's not the most exciting hour 20 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: of your week. It really is, and there's I don't 21 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: think there's any show like it really that you have 22 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: kind of live action from the sports book going on 23 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: at the same time that we're kind of breaking down 24 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: the game, so it's kind of real time. I mean, 25 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: that's uh, the hour goes by so fast, so as 26 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: I'm trying to break down the games and and move 27 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: lines at the same time, it's, uh, it's a great hour. 28 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: It is a great hour. I've usually got my uh 29 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: ODDS screen up. I've got the odd screen that I 30 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: use sports Insights dot Action network dot com. Sports Insights 31 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: is like what you get if you're at the highest 32 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: level of subscription for Action Network, and this screen is 33 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: basically like a real time trading terminal that Wall Street 34 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: traders would use when they're examining the markets. Only I'm 35 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,519 Speaker 1: seeing every line and I'm seeing how much money is 36 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: coming in on each game, and it lights up when 37 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: a big bet comes in, when the percentages are about 38 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: to change. I'm watching what you're doing in real time, 39 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: so you can start talking about a line change and 40 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: I see it changing, and then we get excited and 41 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 1: you know you're taking fifty bets and talking about why 42 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: it's moving the line. It's an amazing show. It's exactly 43 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: what I've always wanted to do. Like, honest to god, 44 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: I feel like it's the exact perfect pregame show, whether 45 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: you're interested in betting or not, just because, uh it's 46 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: an entire the new way to look at the games, 47 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: and so um go check it out. Scooch. Last night 48 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: was Monday Night football and the Patriots were playing the Jets, 49 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 1: and all week people have been telling me like, hey, 50 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: you gotta take the Jets. It's plus ten, that's what 51 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: the wise guys are doing. And my theory on that was, 52 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: h yeah, for sure. Tell me what happened to you? 53 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: Uh well, we we tried to stay high on it 54 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: all week long. We let the wise guys take take 55 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: the Jets for as much as, uh you knows, as 56 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: much as they wanted. Basically, we dipped down the nine 57 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: and a half a few times, but but kind of 58 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: stayed at ten. We actually put ten and a half 59 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: on our parley card and kept that up all week, 60 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: so it wasn't um, it wasn't disastrous for us. We 61 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: kind of balanced things out because of that. But kind 62 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: of the you know, the role of thumb is you 63 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: always have to take a double digit dog at home, 64 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: and the Jets kind of looked good coming off of 65 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: the win against Dallas. But we've often talked out it 66 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: is you have to throw all the rules out the 67 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: window when you talk about the Patriots. They just kind 68 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: of defy all the other sports betting rules that have 69 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: kind of been profitable over the years. And uh and 70 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: I often said, you don't make a living bet against 71 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: the Patriots. You don't make a living bet against the Patriots, 72 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: especially against bad teams. I mean, I think that's the thing. 73 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: And we actually talked about this on the radio show 74 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 1: on Sunday. If you're going to bet the NFL, you 75 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: have to bet on bad teams. You've got a bet 76 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: on Washington plus ten. You've got a bet in the 77 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: Bengals plus four and a half. You've got a bet 78 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 1: in the Raiders plus five and a half. Like you've 79 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: got certain values prescribed against every team, and if those 80 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: values are out of whack according to the line that's 81 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: been posted, then you bet those numbers. And numbers are 82 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,559 Speaker 1: always out of whack when it comes to bad teams 83 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 1: because bookmaker is gonna shade the team that is higher profile. 84 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 1: The Patriots are a different story. Like if they're playing 85 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: the Chiefs or whomever, it's a different conversation. But if 86 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: they're playing a bad team, they don't play down like 87 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: they don't they don't get sucked, you know, they don't 88 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: make mistakes that other teams make. They don't get lack 89 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: of daisical um. If the Patriots are playing a black 90 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: playing a bad team, bet the fucking Patriots. It's really 91 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: true because they don't know any other way of playing. 92 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: They don't change the game if they're up twenty thirty points, 93 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: they don't change their style of play in the fourth quarter. 94 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: They have one mode, they have kind of one method, 95 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: and they don't put that. They don't take their foot 96 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 1: off the gas pedal. And that's kind of why people 97 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: have loved to bet on this team over the years, 98 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,479 Speaker 1: is because no matter how many points they're laying, you're 99 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: always live. Even if it's the end of the game. 100 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: And when normal teams are trying to run some clock down, uh, 101 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: they're throwing downfield and then they're going to get the cover. Well, unfortunately, 102 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: we got a little bit of time before we can 103 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: get back to the Patriots, because oh no, we got uh, 104 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: they'll play this weekend. I was looking forward on the 105 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: board and to confine it for a second. All right, 106 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: let's get to the first game on the board Thursday night. 107 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,480 Speaker 1: All of a sudden, Lizzo's Minnesota Vikings are fifteen and 108 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: a half point favorites over the Washington Redskins at home. Look. 109 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: I think that the game that the Vikings played against 110 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: the Alliance was statement making. I was all over the 111 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 1: lines in that game. The wise guys love the Vikings. 112 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: I was scolding them. It's one of the few times 113 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: I'm wrong. And uh, they came through and they look 114 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: amazing and one of the few teams in the NFL 115 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: tops and yards per play allowed and tops and yards 116 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: per play gained, uh, top four and both. I believe 117 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: the only team in the NFL that's true for they 118 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: are turned into a really good team that's getting a 119 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: lot of public sentiment. Am I right? Yeah? I was 120 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: actually kind of high on the Vikings earlier this year, 121 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: and they let me down a couple of times. That 122 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: game against the Bears, I I really thought that they 123 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: would That was the one that surprised me the most. 124 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: But we didn't downgrade their ranking, and I still kept 125 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: them up pretty high. Uh. Going into that Giants game, 126 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: we were high on on the vikings. And then last 127 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 1: week I think you and I were on different sides 128 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: of that game. I really uh favored the vikings and 129 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: were I was the first one to go to three. 130 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: If you remember, we were doing our our Sunday show 131 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: and everyone was at two and a half on the game, 132 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: and I was the first one to go to three 133 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: on the vikings because not only were we getting money, 134 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: but I also wanted to try and draw some more 135 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: Lions money on that game. And how did that work 136 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: out for you? Well, I mean we still end up 137 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: getting beep because the wise guys were on the vikings. 138 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: But I know you don't like this saying, but I 139 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: saved us money by not losing as much as we 140 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: could have. I'm sure your bosses love it. Guys, I 141 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: did so well this week. We could have lost so 142 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: much more money, But because I'm a genius, I saved us. 143 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: That's how good our bookmaker I am. Meanwhile, you did 144 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: a nice job of telling me how it went last week. Um, 145 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: can you tell me how it's going this week? Uh? Well, 146 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: you know, the Redskins came through for US. That was 147 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: another real big game for US for US last week 148 00:07:55,320 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: against the US and barely getting the cover. There's ten points. 149 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: So here they are now they're on the road, they're 150 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: not at home. Vikings are are about the same rating 151 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: right now as as the forty Niners, maybe actually just 152 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: a half a shade higher, maybe maybe a point higher. 153 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: So the line is pretty similar, except you know that 154 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: now the Redskins are are on the road here, um, 155 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: we're getting a little bit of Redskins money from the 156 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: sharp guys. The public obviously is on the Vikings at 157 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: about a three to one ratio. Thursday night, high profile game, 158 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: it'll be just like the Monday night game where the 159 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: where the public will be all over the double digit favorite, 160 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: and we'll hope to draw a little wise guy money 161 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: from the sharps on the Redskins. We dipped it up 162 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,679 Speaker 1: to sixteen just for just for a brief second or 163 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: two and took a few thousand dollars, And now fifteen 164 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 1: and a half looks kind of stable. Would you say 165 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: that the Vikings are you're a top rated team in 166 00:08:54,880 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: the NFC if they are rated higher than the forty Niners. Uh, 167 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,319 Speaker 1: I actually don't have the forty Niners ranked as the 168 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 1: highest team. I still have the Saints, uh favorite over 169 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: the uh if they play on a neutral field, I 170 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: have the Saints higher than forty Niners. So, but I 171 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 1: had the Vikings. UH, so forty Niners would be third 172 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 1: behind the Saints and Vikings. Wow, that's news right there, 173 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: we're breaking news. That that that uh breaking news. That's 174 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: that's my that's just my rankings. Well, listen, your bookmaker 175 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 1: of the world. So yep, you know I'm gonna gonna 176 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: follow what you're doing. Probably gonna have to bet the 177 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: Redskins though. You know why. It's why. If you're gonna 178 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: play in the NFL, you gotta bet bad teams. Hey, 179 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: I make a living root for bad teams. Thirty years 180 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: of rooting for bad teams. You look pretty good too, 181 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: so it must not be killing you. It's tough, you know. 182 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: The thing of it is, when you're rooting for these 183 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: bad teams. It's like, even when they're in the game, 184 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: k and they get a couple of breaks and they're 185 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: right there, they're getting seventeen points, fifteen points, and the 186 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: game's tied at halftime or something like that, there's always 187 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 1: a pick six or or a key third and long 188 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: were they have a penalty that puts the other team in, 189 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: you know, gives them new life. And you're starting to 190 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: say why why, But then you realize that that's why 191 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: they're bad teams. That these key mistakes that you said 192 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: the Patriots never never make. You never see the Patriots 193 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:32,199 Speaker 1: making those kind of mistakes. And if they did, uh, 194 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: you know that then you'd be able to bet against 195 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: him once in a while. Yeah, the equal number of 196 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 1: times last night you saw Sam Donald fading back against 197 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:46,199 Speaker 1: the rush when Tom Brady, tom Brady was stepping up 198 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 1: into the pocket. That was everything that there were probably 199 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: four players where that happened. And Donald throws a pick 200 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: and tom Brady throws a completion. Yep. The little things 201 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: that make the difference. But it's your huge Seattle Atlanta. 202 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 1: We don't know what Matt Ryan's status is. Do you 203 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 1: have that game on the board right now? We do 204 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: not know, But I mean this line will be anywhere 205 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 1: from you know, for Seattle to six Seattle. Uh So 206 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: I mean this is we just have to wait and see, 207 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: uh what the status of Ryan is. But what you're 208 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: saying is Ryan is worth two points against the points 209 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 1: but it's not like he's a world beater. Yeah. I 210 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: think Shop came in and actually got their only touchdown. 211 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: But I mean it's not a huge when you when 212 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: the team is playing this bad, as bad as the 213 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: Falcons are. We've beat this drum all year about how 214 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,359 Speaker 1: how bad this team is, and and Ryan in particular, 215 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,719 Speaker 1: and he had a nice line last week when you 216 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: said he looked like he was eighty five years old. 217 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: He did look that old when he was walking out 218 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: of the tunnel. So um, there's not a huge step 219 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 1: down even when you go to, you know, a backup quarterback. Here, 220 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: if Matt Ryan looks eighty five years old, Matt shab 221 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:03,719 Speaker 1: looks like he's Moses. Like that's how that's how long 222 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: he's been around. I swear to god, I don't even 223 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: know how long has been playing, but I swear to God. 224 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: Like back in the ESPN the magazine days when it 225 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: was still in New York and I was an editor 226 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: in the NFL group. Um, ESPN the magazine used to 227 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 1: have a franchise called Next where it was like predicting 228 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: who the next great stars were gonna be. And Matt Shop, 229 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: excuse me, had been a backup in Atlanta had played 230 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: pretty well. We were predicting that he was going to 231 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 1: be the next great backup to go start somewhere, and 232 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: he ended up having a pretty good run in Houston. 233 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: Uh So I think about that. That was probably two 234 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: thousand five, two thousand six, maybe like yeah, because I 235 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,839 Speaker 1: remember I I remember watching Matt Shop when I was 236 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: at the start Ust and the and the Startus hotel 237 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: hasn't has been imploded since two thousand seven, so it 238 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: hasn't even been around for twelve years. And I remember 239 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: sitting in the office watching Matt Job. I mean, you 240 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: know what the beauty is scooch. Uh we can look 241 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 1: it up. He was drafted in the fourth round, the 242 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 1: third round of the two thousand four draft. He's thirty 243 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: eight years old. He's playing the league for like sixteen years. 244 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: Oh my god. Yeah yeah, But what does it say 245 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: how bad the team is if this guy comes in 246 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: and it's not that big of a step down. That's 247 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 1: exactly the point of this little detour here, exactly. Indianapolis 248 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: Colts five and a half points favorites over the Broncos. 249 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 1: Good God, give me the Colts. Give me the Colts 250 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:38,959 Speaker 1: for your lungs. This the Broncos, do you Well, I'm 251 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: just so mad about what they did against the Chiefs 252 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: last last week on Thursday Night leg That was such 253 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 1: a pathetic display. And I know I'm saying this, and 254 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 1: I'm making the worst possible mistake. I'm making a recency 255 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 1: bias mistake. Like I just saw the Broncos. I lost 256 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: them to them. I lost a bet on them. Listened 257 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: to Troy Aikman. Troy Aikman get a poplectic. He doesn't 258 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 1: get apoplectic about anything, and he got mad. So there's 259 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,079 Speaker 1: a reason for all this. Um Cults look pretty amazing though, 260 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: And I'm still glad I hold the could futures ticket, 261 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 1: even though I bet it with Andrew Luck. Yeah, we've 262 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 1: been high on the Colts, uh, you know, most of 263 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: the year, and we've talked about this and last week 264 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: and uh we really thought that that was a great 265 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: spot for for the Colts and and they and they 266 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: won that game against Houston easily. Uh this in this situation, 267 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: we talk about recency uh bias. We know that the 268 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: public seeing that game against Houston last week is gonna 269 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: love the Colts. So we opened them slightly on the 270 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: high side at six and a half and Siday, it's 271 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: been all sharp money on the Broncos since then. We 272 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: immediately went to six. I know some places are going 273 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: as low as five and a half on this one. 274 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: We're getting some some money on the Broncos, even a 275 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: plus six, but it's all it's just sharp money. The 276 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: ticket acount is about all amost almost tend to one 277 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: Colts to Broncos right now. So we know that this 278 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: is gonna be one of the biggest public games on 279 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,479 Speaker 1: the board. Uh. And you know, none of the recreational 280 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: betters will be on the Broncos. But the line has 281 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 1: come down. So it's one of those games where the 282 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: line is, you know, going opposite of the way that 283 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 1: the ticket count indicates that it should go. Gotta beat 284 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: bad teams, you can really do. That's the theme here, right, 285 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: Just got a bad bad teams. Yep, that's it. Hold 286 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: your nose. I mean, look at the end. I don't know, 287 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: it depends on when I finally decided to pull the trigger. 288 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: I might just keep waiting for this thing to come 289 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: down and try to get the Colts as good a 290 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 1: number as I possibly can. Who knows well it will 291 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: go down? I mean a matter of fact, I could 292 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: probably see this line going down as low as four 293 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: and a half. That guy that line gets to four 294 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: and a half, I am pulling the trigger on the Colts, 295 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: so Fat asked, I'm taking all your money and beedding 296 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: it on the Cults. Wow, okay, let's go. Yeah, Well, 297 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: I feel strong way about this team. Arizona is a 298 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: nine and a half point underdog to the number one 299 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: ranked in the NFC, according to Bob Scucci New Orleans 300 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 1: Saints Teddy covers. So, actually we got to look and 301 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: see if Drew Brees is gonna it's gonna be playing 302 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 1: in this game. Could this be the week? This could 303 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: be the week he makes to come back. Um, he 304 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: has been kind of kind of cleared. He's he's been 305 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: upgraded to probable or actually questionable. He's not probable, but 306 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: he's been up upgraded two questionable from doubtful. So there 307 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: is a slight chance that they bring him back this game. So, um, 308 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: we're just gonna have to keep an eye on that one. 309 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: But but yeah, God, Saints are looking good. Uh and 310 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: they're just rolling along. I mean, the defense was playing 311 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: well and with or without Breeze, they're they're number one team. 312 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: This is how much God is on Tom Brady's side. 313 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: Drew Brees was on the path to become the career 314 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 1: touchdown passing touchdown leader. He was a little bit ahead 315 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: of of Tom Brady. Eventually Tom Brady would have caught 316 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:19,159 Speaker 1: up to Drew Brees, but he was ahead of Tom 317 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 1: Brady and would have broken it this year. Ah, So 318 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: God broke Drew brees Is thumb so Tom Brady could 319 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 1: catch up and overtake him and then get there first. 320 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 1: I didn't know we were going in that direction, but wow, 321 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: that's something. What do you think of that? Yeah, well, 322 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: I gotta believe what you want to believe. Okay Scooche, Well, 323 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: do you believe that the Saints are nine and a 324 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 1: half point favorites over the Cardinals with Teddy Bridgewater Andrew 325 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: Brees or do you believe they're bigger favorites if Drew 326 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: Brees is playing. I think they're bigger favorites. If Drew 327 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: Brees is playing. I think the the perception is going 328 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 1: to be there, whether or not it's you know, in fact, 329 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: after this amount of time time off for a quarterback, 330 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: his age to be that effective to come in in 331 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: his first game. I think, I think, really that the 332 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: line shouldn't be too far off as well as Bridgewater 333 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 1: has been playing, but it is still Drew Brees and 334 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 1: the experience and the perception will mean a couple of points. 335 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: How uh, how much less is Drew Brees is worth 336 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: against the point spread now since Teddy Bridgewater has gone 337 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: on the run that he's gone on. So like, if 338 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: this game happened like the first game of the year 339 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,119 Speaker 1: before we saw Bridgewater plays first game for the Saints 340 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: this year, it would have been about a five five 341 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: and a half point drop. Now it's only about two. Yeah, wow, 342 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: so interesting. That's like you're giving me so many things 343 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: I could write about, tweet about, talk about. That's great. 344 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: I mean, it would depend on whatever the points Bread 345 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 1: was so obviously like a third team. If they were 346 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 1: a thirteen point favorite, uh, it could be mean as 347 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: much as you know, six points, But if if the 348 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: line opened up a pick um, it might only be 349 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: like a four or four and a half point adjustment, 350 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: so you know, the who who they're playing would have 351 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: made a difference to right, But in reality, like he's 352 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: gone from being five and a half points to about 353 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:26,479 Speaker 1: two points. Yeah, yeah, it's fascinating. That's a field goal. 354 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: That's a big number. This next game. I almost pains 355 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: me to talk about it. The Chicago Bears are four 356 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: point favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers. Like the amount 357 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: of grief that Mitch Drubisky started getting this week. It 358 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 1: feels like the entire world has caught up to what 359 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,399 Speaker 1: we've been saying for eighteen months about this team. You 360 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 1: know what I mean? Like, you know how I feel 361 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: about Trubisky. You know how I feel about the Bears 362 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 1: trading up up to get Mr Rubisky? Uh, Not taking 363 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, not taking Deshaun Watson, not taking Christian McCaffrey, 364 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 1: trading up, giving up players in the draft to go 365 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: from three to two to get Mr Bisky? How could 366 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 1: the Bears be four pret favorites in this game? They're disgusting. 367 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: The charges as don't even what. I know what you're 368 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: gonna say, Go say it. You know I was going 369 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: to say wise guys, but I I substituted. All the 370 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: buildings are taking the charges. Milmans are wise guys. The 371 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: wise guys are Millman's. Now. That's how we were all. 372 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,160 Speaker 1: So we opened this game six right out of the game. 373 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: They took the six, they took the five and a half, 374 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: they're taken four and a half. You're right, this line's 375 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 1: going down. Um. I might actually go to four here 376 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: pretty shortly. And uh, the only thing is that the 377 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 1: public is slightly still on the Bears. Not by much, 378 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: you know, just just a shade. Um, So I don't 379 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 1: want to I don't want to go too quickly this 380 00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 1: early in the week. I'll take another pop up at 381 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: lost four and a half. I don't think that's a 382 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: testament to the Bears. I think it's, uh, the Chargers 383 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:08,880 Speaker 1: losing the way they did this past weekend, that they're 384 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: betting the Chargers the way they lost, now that the 385 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 1: public being on the Bears isn't about being on the Bears, 386 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 1: it's about being against the Chargers. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're 387 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 1: probably right. I thought you were talking about the moments. 388 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 1: The moments are always on the right side yea of 389 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: history and bets. Yes, sir, Jacksonville five and a half 390 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: point favorite against the flailing New York Jets. Look, this 391 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 1: is gonna be one of those where, like Jack's go 392 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,959 Speaker 1: on the road, they cover for the public. We're all 393 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 1: over the Jags on the road and Gardner Minshew is 394 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback being a favorite on the road. Um, 395 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 1: wise guys made a bad choice. But you've got a 396 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: bet a bad number if you want to play in 397 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 1: this play in the NFL. Uh. And the Jets look horrible. 398 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 1: I mean, my instinct is that there's probably a little 399 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 1: bit of a little bit of value on the Jets. 400 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: They're not going to be as bad as they were 401 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 1: against the Patriots. What are the wise guys doing at 402 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: five five and a half? Um, they're actually they're they're 403 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 1: taking We were actually at six and they're so they're 404 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 1: taking the sixth, but not not for a lot. So 405 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: I think five and a half is probably the right number, 406 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 1: although I favored the dag Wars and I'd rather be 407 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 1: a little high on this. So it's funny how just 408 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: one game can kind of change your perception of the team. 409 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: The Jets, you know, they get Donald back, and they 410 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: look like world beaters against Dallas. In in retrospect kind 411 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 1: of looking back, you know, you almost have to wonder 412 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: if Dallas was kind of looking ahead a little bit 413 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: to the to the Eagles game as well as good 414 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: as Dallas looked against the Eagles, and as bad as 415 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 1: they looked against the Jets, you know, maybe they took 416 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: them a little too lightly in that game, and maybe 417 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: Donald surprised them. But I don't think that that should 418 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 1: suddenly change our opinions of how bad the Jets are. 419 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 1: And Jacksonville, on the other hand, we were high on 420 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: them last week. We liked them last week. UH like 421 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: him again this week. So we're gonna try and stay 422 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: a little high. I kind of like the Jacksonville Jaguars 423 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: here too. I've changed my mind. I don't want to 424 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: talk about it. I don't want to talk about this 425 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 1: game for another second. The Los Angeles Rams are twelve 426 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against Cincinnati Bengals. Look, tell 427 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 1: just tell me, tell me, tell me what's happening. Well, 428 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: they're everyone's bet in the Rams. But so the sharp 429 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,879 Speaker 1: guys aren't taken it yet. But I think here's another 430 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 1: case where you have to take a bad team. Now, 431 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: So this game is in London. It's another London game, 432 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 1: but it's a ten o'clock Pacific time starts, not one 433 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 1: of those early six thirty games anymore starts, thank god. 434 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: But but the ticket counts about eight to one on Rams. 435 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 1: The Sharp guys haven't weighed in yet. Uh. You know, 436 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,120 Speaker 1: the Rams played probably you know, one of their best 437 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 1: games of the year last week, So it's a it's 438 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: a it's a bad time for for for us for 439 00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 1: them to be playing the Bengals as bookmakers. You know, 440 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: you couldn't take a worst team for them to be 441 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 1: playing now. Uh So, you know, cutting off of one 442 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 1: of their best performances. We know the public is going 443 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: to be all over the ran, so we shaded this 444 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: a little bit higher, um, knowing that. Um. So obviously 445 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: it's not high enough yet for the Sharp guys to 446 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: get involved. So this game might end up going to 447 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: four team. Yeah, you're gonna go to fourteen, and even 448 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,400 Speaker 1: then people are gonna take the Bengals and they're gonna 449 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: regret it. Yeah, you know, a matter of fact, I'm 450 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: gonna I'm going to thirteen and a half right now 451 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: and just change. I heard it. My computer is just 452 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: acting up on Okay, there we go. Did it work? 453 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: You know? Accidentally? It actually it actually made the Bengals 454 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 1: a thirteen and a half point favors. So about it 455 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 1: for a second or two. So I was trying to 456 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: scramble theirs before before somebody you know gave us a 457 00:24:55,400 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 1: pop on it. Yeah, sometimes that happens. Oh my god, 458 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 1: that would have been amazing. Who I root for the 459 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:08,919 Speaker 1: narrative and it would have been a great narrative if 460 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 1: you got popped because of mistake. That's it, all right. 461 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: The Detroit lines seven point favorites against the New York Giants. 462 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 1: I struggled with this one. That feels a little too high. 463 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: It feels a scoche, a scoche too high. Hey you 464 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,400 Speaker 1: know what, I just got a bet on the Bengals 465 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 1: just that quick. I'm going back to third. Yeah, so 466 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 1: I'm going back to thirteen. How much was it? Uh 467 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: it was five thousand, so but five thousand from someone 468 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: you respect. Yeah, so this was this was somebody that uh, 469 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 1: we've kind of know over the years. And so ye, 470 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 1: by the way, thank god, they like do you think 471 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,920 Speaker 1: they saw the Bengals minus thirteen and a half for 472 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: a second? And wait, wait, wait a second, that isn't 473 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,119 Speaker 1: oct No, they would have bet the Rams if that 474 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 1: was the case. I know, but I mean if they 475 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:03,119 Speaker 1: saw that line posted and like huh yeah, yeah, they 476 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: might have. I'm sure they did. And then uh, I mean, 477 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,400 Speaker 1: they would have known it was a mistake. But yeah, 478 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: stays happen. The stakes get taken care of. You know 479 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 1: what I'm saying. Yep, how would you explain that one 480 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 1: in your bosses? Think about how much money I could 481 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,479 Speaker 1: have won up as if one us if I hit 482 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:27,479 Speaker 1: the Rams team and a half, yeah, or you end 483 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,360 Speaker 1: up winning. You end up winning that game and uh 484 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 1: and the Bagel's cover and you're like, yeah, I knew 485 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 1: this would happen, genius. You know there was a game 486 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 1: I want to go back, and I'm going back forever now, 487 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 1: like I don't know twenty five years when something like 488 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 1: this happened with the Canadian Football League and we made 489 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: the wrong team. There was a twelve and a half 490 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: point favorite, and I forgot which team it was. It 491 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 1: might have been, you know, the Stampeders, or there was 492 00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 1: two teams that were named the same for a while 493 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 1: then might have been playing each other for all I know. 494 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,639 Speaker 1: But anyway, we had the wrong Uh, we had the 495 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 1: wrong favorite, and somebody bet the team that should have 496 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: been favored. They took the plus twelve and a half 497 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 1: instead of laying twelve and a half, and somehow the 498 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 1: team lost by more than twelve and a half, twelve 499 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. They lost anyway, and this 500 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: guy comes in looking to get a refund on it, 501 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 1: saying that, you know, they made a mistake on this 502 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 1: and the line shouldn't have been this, and he was 503 00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 1: looking to get paid on it anyway, even after he 504 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: took a shot at us and still lost the game. 505 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 1: You know what, buyer beware, my friend. Yeah, I guarantee 506 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: it was the rough Riders playing the rough Riders. That's 507 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 1: what it was. Yeah, the Detroit lines seven point favorites 508 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 1: at home against the Giants. I think it's a little high, 509 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,399 Speaker 1: just a Scooch high. Yeah, yeah, So and we did too. 510 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: We opened it seven seven flat and the first few 511 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 1: bets out of the gate, we're on the Giants. So 512 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,919 Speaker 1: we went to plus seven minus twenty now and now 513 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 1: they're laying in the twenties. So I can definitely see 514 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,959 Speaker 1: this game going down the six and a half. Uh, 515 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,920 Speaker 1: there's a little bit high, but we are kind of 516 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 1: fading a lot of public money on on the Lions here. 517 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 1: It's about a four to one ratio, five to one 518 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: ratio Lions to Giants right now. So even with even 519 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 1: with the Lions lost last week. I think public will 520 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: still be coming in on on Detroit this one. Tampa Bay, Jesus, 521 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 1: you have a hard time even saying that they're visiting Tennessee. 522 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: Tennessee is a two and a half point favorite, but 523 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: like I guess you bet Tennessee is a short home favorite, 524 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: like you did this past week against the Chargers. But 525 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: I'm not doing it with any enthusiasm. Yeah, I think 526 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: it's just a kind of you play the number two 527 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 1: and a half at home Titans, you know, coming off 528 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 1: of a win, to change quarterbacks, and you know it's 529 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 1: it's probably a little played for the times. But this 530 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: we're not going to get any action on this game, 531 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: so it's kind of just stuck right there in the 532 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 1: middle of the other early games, which is great. Now 533 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 1: we gotta run of interesting games coming up, not that 534 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: the other ones aren't interesting. I love all my beds equally, 535 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 1: but these games are more interesting to me. Philadelphia a 536 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: one and a half point underdog against the Bills. Boy, boy, 537 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: have there have the fortunes changed for those two teams? 538 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 1: That was not this number even a week ago. No, No, 539 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: it wasn't. I mean the Bills are obviously overachieving and 540 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,560 Speaker 1: even even with a lack of offense. I mean, they 541 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 1: struggled a little bit last week with with Miami, and 542 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 1: you know, we were saying they probably shouldn't have been 543 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: uh as big of a favorite as as they were. 544 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 1: So they're they're ranking since clearly climbed up. The Eagles 545 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,880 Speaker 1: has dropped a little bit, but not not too much. 546 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 1: I mean, you think about this, The Sharp guys were 547 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: betting the Eagles at plus two and a half in 548 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 1: Dallas last week. Okay, they didn't get the win, but 549 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 1: now they're getting too against the Bills, which you know, 550 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 1: on the face of it, seems like it should be 551 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 1: a play on the Eagles. So we know the public 552 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 1: is going to kind of see the Bills and say, hey, wow, 553 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 1: you know the Bills are only laying two at home, 554 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 1: this team's five and one. The Eagles just lost to 555 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 1: the Cowboys, so we know this is a public play 556 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: on the Bills. But I would expect the Sharp guys 557 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 1: to kind of throw the last week's game out and 558 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 1: be on the Eagles again this week. I don't know, man, 559 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 1: very short home favorite. I need a team with an 560 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 1: incredibly good defense and a quarterback who can make plays 561 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,640 Speaker 1: with his feet against a defense that has beaten up 562 00:30:56,280 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: and all they gotta do is win the game. You up, Yeah, no, 563 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 1: I I could see it. I mean, this is one 564 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 1: of the first games if I'm coming in and saying, 565 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 1: you know, give me a short home favorite. I would 566 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 1: take this one over the Titans like that we just 567 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: talked about the Titans game. Uh, you know, I would 568 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: take this one over the Colts or the I mean, 569 00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 1: this is kind of like a one of those systems plays. 570 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 1: I've got a both statement. I just think that the 571 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: Bills have just had a pretty big kind of run 572 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,800 Speaker 1: of weekly increases in in the rankings, and at some 573 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: point you lose a little value. I've got a bold 574 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: statement about the next game, which one Carolina visiting San Francisco. 575 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 1: They're five and a half point underdogs on the road 576 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 1: against the team that you say is the third rated 577 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 1: team in the NFL. Yeah, they're coming off, Hold on, 578 00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 1: coming off. You're gonna let me finish, mr Okah. I 579 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 1: think the Panthers win this game out right. I don't 580 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 1: doubt it for one minute. You know, so, I have 581 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 1: been so slow to move the Niners, and that's why 582 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 1: I don't have them ranked the top of the NFC. 583 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: But every week I keep saying they're going to get exposed, 584 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 1: and every week they keep kind of proving me wrong. Now, 585 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,520 Speaker 1: last week, I mean if that they're playing that game 586 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: in a kind of a driving rainstorm and I couldn't 587 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 1: draw as much from it. I mean I I've talked 588 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: about it all week how the Niners were just super 589 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: inflated over the Redskins, um, you know as ten point 590 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: road road favorites, and and every bit of value has 591 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,640 Speaker 1: has just been drained from the from the forty Niners, 592 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: and that there was only value in the Redskins. Well, 593 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 1: they barely got the cover. So I just might keep 594 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: taking it on the chin every week with the forty 595 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 1: Niners until they win the Super Bowl. I'm just not 596 00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:00,520 Speaker 1: quite there yet. So um, you know, I I'm at 597 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,440 Speaker 1: five and a half on on the game. Uh. We're 598 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: drawn mostly public money on the Niners. But I did 599 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 1: get a few thousand on the Panthers from some guys 600 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 1: that I that I know, so that are that are 601 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 1: pretty successful and betting. Uh, so that's kind of a 602 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: good indication that we are going to get maybe a 603 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 1: little sharp money on on Carolina. Yea, I might do 604 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: Carolina money line my friend. Yeah. If if nothing else, 605 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 1: I'm betting Caroline in this game. That's all I'm saying. Well, 606 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 1: you got to take the points. I mean, I've said 607 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 1: I've been saying it every week. You know, we keep inflating, 608 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,960 Speaker 1: inflating that the Niners based on how much money we're getting, 609 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 1: and based on the fact that they keep covering UM. 610 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 1: Even though they didn't cover last week, they were almost 611 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: right that they could have easily. They just chose to 612 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 1: run the clock out there at the end, which was 613 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 1: great for us. But but yeah, I'm just I'm very 614 00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 1: slow to move in and if that burns me every week, 615 00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,760 Speaker 1: then so be it. But I'm just very slow to 616 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,440 Speaker 1: move them. Houston is a six and a half point 617 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:07,000 Speaker 1: favorite over the Raiders, two teams coming off losses pretty 618 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 1: bad losses, looking not very good. Sixty three percent of 619 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 1: the money coming of the tickets coming in in Houston, 620 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: but of the money coming in on Houston, meaning the 621 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: wise guys are back in the Oakland Raiders again. This 622 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,800 Speaker 1: is according to the Action Network app. They are we opened. 623 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 1: We opened the game seven and we're down to six 624 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 1: and a half. UM. I think I think six and 625 00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,279 Speaker 1: a half were probably good because we know that the 626 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 1: public money is coming in on the Texans probably won't 627 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,319 Speaker 1: go back to seven. UM, and if I do, it'll 628 00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,920 Speaker 1: be seven even money. But I think six and a 629 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,080 Speaker 1: half is probably the right line on this one. Last week, 630 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,080 Speaker 1: I think Houston's loss that was just a great spot 631 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,320 Speaker 1: for the Colts, and I think Houston kind of bounces. 632 00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 1: I've used in just a much better team obviously than 633 00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 1: the Raiders, but the Raiders haven't been getting a whole 634 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 1: lot of support from the public, even as competitive as 635 00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:01,479 Speaker 1: as they've been playing. UM. I was actually uh both 636 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: the Raiders last week was a good play against the Packers. 637 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 1: I think that was actually my scooter left pick. But yeah, 638 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 1: and and honestly, if you if you watch the game, uh, 639 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 1: Derek Carr dives for the pylon that would have given 640 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 1: him the lead right before the half, and he fumbles 641 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,360 Speaker 1: the ball. Packers get touch back, get the ball in 642 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 1: the twenty and then they scored touchdown before the half, 643 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,320 Speaker 1: ends a four teen point swing that the Raiders just 644 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,359 Speaker 1: never recovered from that. And had they I honestly think 645 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,399 Speaker 1: that had he not fumbled in that and and took 646 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,000 Speaker 1: the lead into halftime, but they would have gotten the cover. 647 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 1: But you know the right side of the winning side, amen, brother. 648 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: And also you're betting bad teams. Speaking of here's the 649 00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:49,720 Speaker 1: part of the conversation. New England Patriots at home twelve 650 00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Cleveland Browns, Am 651 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:57,480 Speaker 1: I crazier? Is this the spot for the Browns? Definitely 652 00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 1: the spot for the Browns? It is, right, yeah. I 653 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,960 Speaker 1: mean this line is just like the pregame line. I mean, 654 00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 1: like last week we probably would have a couple of 655 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,279 Speaker 1: weeks ago probably would have been looking at maybe ten 656 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,719 Speaker 1: and a half eleven on this game. Uh, and now 657 00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 1: you're able to get thirteen and coming off of the 658 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,279 Speaker 1: you know, the Patriots just annihilation of the Jets and 659 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:21,320 Speaker 1: the fact that the Patriots just keep rolling. Uh. You know, 660 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,279 Speaker 1: it's just we know that this line is about as 661 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,400 Speaker 1: inflated as you can get. But you've got to have 662 00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,680 Speaker 1: a lot of stones to that that the Browns, because 663 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 1: you don't make a living against the Patriots. I think 664 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: this is the spot. Look, the story the narrative here 665 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 1: is the Patriots or world beaters, but there's a secondary 666 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,960 Speaker 1: narrative developings that they haven't played anybody, and they haven't 667 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 1: played any good quarterbacks. And so this is really a 668 00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:53,319 Speaker 1: referendum on Baker Mayfield, right, because do you believe he's 669 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 1: a good quarterback or not? And it is all through 670 00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:01,200 Speaker 1: the lens of how do you view view the Patriots. Yeah, 671 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 1: and if you can put a pass rush on Brady, 672 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 1: you put the I think the Giants showed in that 673 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,799 Speaker 1: in that Giants Patriots game where if you put enough 674 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,239 Speaker 1: put enough pressure on Brady, you know he's not going 675 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,279 Speaker 1: to be that kind of accurate short game passor that 676 00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,680 Speaker 1: you saw last night. And um, Cleveland does have a 677 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,759 Speaker 1: good defense, it's just New England's defense is the best 678 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,040 Speaker 1: in the NFL. So, like you said, this is this 679 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 1: is the real test for for Baker Mayfield. I'm going 680 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 1: to be a Baker boy this weekend, Kansas City hosting 681 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,359 Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. Packers are four and a half 682 00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,279 Speaker 1: point favorites. Tell me how you came to this line, 683 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:43,920 Speaker 1: Scooch and what the wise guys are betting? Well, obviously 684 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,800 Speaker 1: just no Mahomes. So uh, I think that even with 685 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,840 Speaker 1: their win against the Broncos without him, I think you know, 686 00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 1: the public is going to be uh favor in the 687 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:59,200 Speaker 1: Packers just I mean, even the average casual fan knows 688 00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:03,080 Speaker 1: the difference of Matt Moore and Patrick Mahomes and going 689 00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,880 Speaker 1: up against a tough green Bay defense and green Bay's finally. 690 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,200 Speaker 1: You know, for the last few weeks, I haven't been 691 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 1: too high on on green Bay. And like I said 692 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,040 Speaker 1: last week, my my best pick was on the Raiders 693 00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,680 Speaker 1: against green Bay. Um, but they are starting to, uh, 694 00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,719 Speaker 1: you know, look look a lot better both on the 695 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,759 Speaker 1: offense and defensive side. And when they get Davante Adams back, 696 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 1: they're going to be even better. So um, you know, 697 00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:29,600 Speaker 1: we just went a little on the high side hoping 698 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,440 Speaker 1: to draw a little Chiefs money. It seems odd that 699 00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,120 Speaker 1: that's that. I needn't saying that because we've been rooting 700 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,560 Speaker 1: against the Chiefs all year. Now here I am looking 701 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,400 Speaker 1: for Chiefs money. I really wish Mahomes would have been 702 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,840 Speaker 1: in this game. It just would have been such a 703 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,680 Speaker 1: great matchup with with Mahomes and uh and Aaron Rodgers. 704 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:50,920 Speaker 1: I know, it's such a bummer, such a bummer. I 705 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 1: don't have anything else to say, just a bummer. But 706 00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,560 Speaker 1: but but no sharp money yet, I mean, everything is 707 00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,759 Speaker 1: just all public money. On on the Packers and uh 708 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 1: and if anything, I can probably see the line going 709 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:05,600 Speaker 1: up up, you know, being especially being the the late game. UM, 710 00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,759 Speaker 1: with that much money on on the favorite, I could 711 00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:13,719 Speaker 1: I could easily see this line going up Miami visiting Pittsburgh. 712 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:17,320 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is a fourteen and a half point favorite. Boy 713 00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:22,880 Speaker 1: at a miserable game to end your weekend if you 714 00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:28,000 Speaker 1: are a football fan, Yeah, who's the quarterback? Duck Hodges? 715 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:34,200 Speaker 1: Duck Hodges against Fits Magic? No, I think Mason Rudolph 716 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:38,200 Speaker 1: has been Mason Rudolph backs. Well, he's probable, he's not not, 717 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,880 Speaker 1: not definitely yet, but he's he hasn't been upgrades. Are 718 00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 1: we playing the NFL and we're playing fucking Dungeons and Dragons? 719 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:47,839 Speaker 1: Fits Magic against Duck Hodges? Now we're just making ship 720 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 1: up I know, not exactly the marquee matchups, is it? 721 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:57,080 Speaker 1: How is ESPN gonna like ESPN struggle to make something 722 00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,000 Speaker 1: out of the Patriots game last night? Now they got 723 00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,080 Speaker 1: to make something out of the Heelers and the Dolphins. 724 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 1: Good lord. Yeah, I don't want to talk about this game. 725 00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:07,600 Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about it. I'll just I'll 726 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,040 Speaker 1: just tell you that we opened fifteen on the game, 727 00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,440 Speaker 1: and uh it took a lot of money on on 728 00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,719 Speaker 1: the Dolphins. So you have to hold your nose and 729 00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:18,480 Speaker 1: you have to bet the Dolphins again double digit dogs. 730 00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 1: You gotta beat bad teams. Yep, that's it. You gotta 731 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,600 Speaker 1: beat bad teams. All right. You know we're gonna do 732 00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:35,839 Speaker 1: right now, Scooch, Roulette, let's do it. We both lost 733 00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:44,160 Speaker 1: last week. Scooch. You had the Raiders, I had the Eagles. Okay, 734 00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:50,920 Speaker 1: who's going first? I want to go first? Okay, because 735 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:52,920 Speaker 1: you're gonna steal my play. Yeah, because I'm taking the 736 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:58,960 Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers, So fuck you, damn it. Okay, that was 737 00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:01,680 Speaker 1: my play. What are you gonna do? Now? Take the Brownies? 738 00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:03,120 Speaker 1: I want to take the Dolphins. You want to take 739 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:04,680 Speaker 1: a little bit of your own medicine. You gotta bet 740 00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:08,640 Speaker 1: bad numbers. Go ahead, go ahead, Take the Bengals, Take 741 00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:10,880 Speaker 1: the Browns, Take the Dolphins. What are you gonna do? Scooch? 742 00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,839 Speaker 1: I love the Dolphins. I'm a huge Dolphins fan. Are 743 00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,320 Speaker 1: you seriously taking the Dolphins? Do you have to? You 744 00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:24,680 Speaker 1: have to? Wow? Wow, you are a you know what, 745 00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:29,479 Speaker 1: you are a man who eats his own dog food. 746 00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:40,400 Speaker 1: You have to take them. Yeah, you're probably right, Scooch. 747 00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,399 Speaker 1: Next week on the podcast, don't forget everyone, by the way, 748 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 1: everyone coming up in a minute, Simon Hunter, Drann Revelle. 749 00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,239 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter professional better, Dann revel not so professional better. 750 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,440 Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about who we're going to take in 751 00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:55,480 Speaker 1: the Westgate Las Vegas Super contest Um next week. You're 752 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,200 Speaker 1: gonna be in the studio live. Is that next week 753 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:02,240 Speaker 1: or the weekendfter? No? So after? Sorry? Sorry people, Sorry 754 00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,799 Speaker 1: for sorry for getting people all excited about that. I'm 755 00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,840 Speaker 1: lot excited for nothing. All right, scoch. We'll talk to 756 00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:11,960 Speaker 1: you next week. No, you know what. We'll talk to 757 00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:15,400 Speaker 1: you on Sunday on our show, the Action Network Countdown 758 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:17,080 Speaker 1: to Kickoff, which you can get on the Radio dot 759 00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,200 Speaker 1: Com app and radio dot Com. It's honestly better than 760 00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:28,000 Speaker 1: this podcast. It's what I said. It's better than this podcast. Wow, 761 00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,400 Speaker 1: I can't believe you said that. I I say they're equal. 762 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,400 Speaker 1: I say it's to pick them. Well, sometimes you got 763 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:40,279 Speaker 1: a bet bad teams, you know what I'm saying. Alright, brother, 764 00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,840 Speaker 1: I'll talk to you next. I'll talk to you Sunday. Goodbye. 765 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:47,600 Speaker 1: All right, all right, we are back on the favorite podcast. 766 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,919 Speaker 1: Dann Ravelle is joining me over the phone. We're gonna 767 00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,200 Speaker 1: talk about our picks for the super Contest, which did 768 00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:59,040 Speaker 1: dismally this past week, and then we're gonna bring on 769 00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,920 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter probe better. It's gonna try to get us 770 00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:07,960 Speaker 1: going in the right direction again. Darren, listen, you've got 771 00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:12,480 Speaker 1: to move on. Okay. We can't all wallow in our 772 00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,960 Speaker 1: sadness about what we missed. We've got to look ahead 773 00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,440 Speaker 1: to next week. And I know you've been thinking about it, 774 00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 1: so I don't want to waste any time. Tell me 775 00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:27,240 Speaker 1: who's on your board. I I thought about this week 776 00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:31,160 Speaker 1: more than I have thought about any other week, Okay, 777 00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:36,600 Speaker 1: and I decided it's time to stop playing these games 778 00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,680 Speaker 1: about you know, what would a sharp guy take, because 779 00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,160 Speaker 1: I'm I'm joke you public and I'm going to stick 780 00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:47,400 Speaker 1: with it. And that's why I am engaging in three 781 00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:52,759 Speaker 1: of the top four largest spreads this week. I like 782 00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:58,440 Speaker 1: Washington plus fifteen and a half against the Vikings. I 783 00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:03,600 Speaker 1: love Miami fourteen and a half against Pittsburgh. And I 784 00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:07,720 Speaker 1: love New England minus twelve and a half against the Browns. 785 00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:14,480 Speaker 1: They're gonna win by that much, so uh, New England. Definitely, 786 00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,239 Speaker 1: they will beat the Browns. The Browns are not that good. 787 00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:21,759 Speaker 1: Miami is better, uh than people think. They've covered the 788 00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:26,440 Speaker 1: last two weeks, and Washington from at least a defensive standpoint. 789 00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,399 Speaker 1: I felt very good about their effort against the forty 790 00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,960 Speaker 1: nine years, even though it was a slopfest. Then I 791 00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:38,000 Speaker 1: like Seattle minus three and a half against Atlanta. How 792 00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:42,440 Speaker 1: that's not bigger given Matt ryan situation, that seems scary 793 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:47,200 Speaker 1: to me. And I have faith in Jacoby Brissett minus 794 00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:51,239 Speaker 1: six against Denver, who I have no faith in. I 795 00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,560 Speaker 1: think these are really interesting picks. Um, I'm not gonna 796 00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,320 Speaker 1: lie to you. There's a couple on here that I 797 00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:01,480 Speaker 1: want to avoid. But I think your first you, your 798 00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:03,560 Speaker 1: first two are sharp plays, like that's what the wise 799 00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,840 Speaker 1: guys are doing. The wise guys are on Washington. The 800 00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,920 Speaker 1: wise guys bet Washington at sixteen the guys guys, the 801 00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:14,840 Speaker 1: wise guys are on Miami. Um, I disagree. I think that, 802 00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:16,880 Speaker 1: And I just said this was scooch. I think in 803 00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:22,719 Speaker 1: New England, Cleveland is a referendum on the on what 804 00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,520 Speaker 1: you think of Baker Mayfield. The Patriots have not played 805 00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,840 Speaker 1: anybody good this year, right, they have played any quarterbacks, 806 00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,600 Speaker 1: they're winning by a lot. Uh So if you think 807 00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,480 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield is good, then you're taking the Brows. If 808 00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,160 Speaker 1: you don't, then you're taking the Patriots. That's that's basically 809 00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:40,080 Speaker 1: what you think. Um, Seattle for me feels a little 810 00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:44,279 Speaker 1: bit like a stay away. I don't know, I'm just 811 00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:48,279 Speaker 1: not convinced yet. Uh, but it feels like, say, because 812 00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:53,840 Speaker 1: it's too good to be true. Um, I guess I 813 00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,120 Speaker 1: just I mean, I know they didn't perform that well 814 00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,640 Speaker 1: this this past week, but I think that was more 815 00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:02,240 Speaker 1: of a fat who they were playing. I think Russell 816 00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,400 Speaker 1: Wilson is pretty much a I mean, he's a good quarterback, 817 00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:08,680 Speaker 1: and Atlanta the situation is do yeah. I don't like 818 00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:12,600 Speaker 1: betting backup quarterbacks who know what they're doing, like Matt 819 00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:16,520 Speaker 1: Shob and uh Doob had it. He had a great drive, 820 00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,799 Speaker 1: he had a great drive down and Colts minus six. 821 00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:21,600 Speaker 1: I'd like to hear what Simon has to say on that. 822 00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,799 Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna give you my plays yet. Uh. 823 00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,600 Speaker 1: Let's just get Simon on the phone and see what 824 00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:32,360 Speaker 1: he thinks of these and um, and then I'm going 825 00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:40,600 Speaker 1: to weigh in with mine. And now a word from 826 00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:47,440 Speaker 1: a wise guy. With Simon Hunter, we did what Simon 827 00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:53,680 Speaker 1: says last week, and we went one and four. It 828 00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,600 Speaker 1: is uh, it was doom and gloom. But then what's 829 00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,120 Speaker 1: the dust subtle? And I looked everything that's going bad 830 00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,200 Speaker 1: for us? We're only eight back of being in the 831 00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,920 Speaker 1: lead for one point five millions. No way, I'm not. 832 00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:08,440 Speaker 1: I'm not, I swear everyone else. It's everyone thinks this 833 00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:12,480 Speaker 1: is so easy. It's not easy. I mean, it's it's 834 00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,239 Speaker 1: hard to keep a strong pace because you're overthinking every week. 835 00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,319 Speaker 1: So I'm not too worried. Yet. We got plenty of time. 836 00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,520 Speaker 1: All right, Well, we got plenty of time until I 837 00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:26,959 Speaker 1: weigh in. I bring you Dann Ravel's you know, House 838 00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:31,200 Speaker 1: of Slop and and I want to give you some 839 00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:36,239 Speaker 1: of his plays. I want to get your take. I 840 00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:37,920 Speaker 1: want to give you some of my ideas, and then 841 00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:41,360 Speaker 1: we're gonna come to the consensus. Okay, I'll do it 842 00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:46,000 Speaker 1: what Derel likes. Washington plus fifteen and a half. I 843 00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:50,319 Speaker 1: avowed we're not rushing into a Thursday night game. Yeah, 844 00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:54,640 Speaker 1: let's take a break from Thursday. Um. I like, I 845 00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:56,879 Speaker 1: love the idea because it's current and prime time it's 846 00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:02,000 Speaker 1: it's a great spot to fade him and he got 847 00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:06,120 Speaker 1: against his former team, right, So that that's the thing 848 00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:08,319 Speaker 1: that's worrying me a little bit. It's who's me more 849 00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,719 Speaker 1: of this golf case keenom playing against his former team, 850 00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,640 Speaker 1: or is the Viking is just gonna come out and 851 00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,280 Speaker 1: beat them thirty nothing like? It's this kind of feels 852 00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,000 Speaker 1: a good. Same thing with the Jets on the prime 853 00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:20,520 Speaker 1: time game. It's like one of those we should just 854 00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:24,840 Speaker 1: stay away with, stay away from. Agree But speaking of 855 00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:31,480 Speaker 1: prime time games, what is it, Darren? You love that one? Darren? 856 00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,880 Speaker 1: I want this game. I can't believe that there's so 857 00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,680 Speaker 1: much chalk this week. That's way better than that one. Okay, 858 00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:40,120 Speaker 1: I'll back you. I'll hear what you have to say 859 00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,879 Speaker 1: about the chalk, because I I didn't see that chalk. Well. 860 00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,600 Speaker 1: Darren also likes Miami plus fourteen and a half. Simon, 861 00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,759 Speaker 1: you would uh that that feels like one of those 862 00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,560 Speaker 1: really good letdown spots for the Dolphins. So I know 863 00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:57,160 Speaker 1: it's a ton of point. So people are gonna be 864 00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,160 Speaker 1: taking the Dolphins because they played a good close game 865 00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,560 Speaker 1: last week. But I'll wait for the public just to 866 00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,040 Speaker 1: keep hitting the Dolphins and whatever Sharps are taking it 867 00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,880 Speaker 1: early and I'll probably at to get Pittsburgh down at 868 00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,920 Speaker 1: fourteen fourteen and a half. I'll take Pittsburgh because that's 869 00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,320 Speaker 1: just a good a good spot for Pittsburgh playing against 870 00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,400 Speaker 1: a Dolphin team that I don't know how they're not 871 00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:17,840 Speaker 1: defeated after last week's whilst that I feel like that 872 00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:20,120 Speaker 1: was their everything game and they couldn't get the win. 873 00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:24,120 Speaker 1: I feel like, uh, I feel like the Redskins was 874 00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:26,680 Speaker 1: the everything game and they couldn't get the win. Like 875 00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,560 Speaker 1: to me, I was actually, you know, I'm a little 876 00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,160 Speaker 1: bit on the side of Darren here. I feel like 877 00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,400 Speaker 1: the Dolphins acquitted themselves well against the Bills in a 878 00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,799 Speaker 1: spot where a lot of people thought, you know, they 879 00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,200 Speaker 1: were what seventeen and a half point underdogs, Like that 880 00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,279 Speaker 1: seemed way too much to me. The Bills hadn't even 881 00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,520 Speaker 1: scored seventeen points in three or five occasional game though. 882 00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,160 Speaker 1: That's what makes that a difference. That's a divisional game, 883 00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:53,719 Speaker 1: so that's why they got I get the Redskins thing 884 00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:56,879 Speaker 1: was more about the weather, like they that they never 885 00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:58,880 Speaker 1: had a chance against sad frame that that was a 886 00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,840 Speaker 1: blessing there there was the first team since the nineties, 887 00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,239 Speaker 1: seventies or eighties to cover without scoring a point. So 888 00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,080 Speaker 1: I don't that's why I like both these dogs. Like 889 00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:10,000 Speaker 1: I think that was a nice week for them last week. 890 00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:11,879 Speaker 1: I don't know about backing them two weeks in orrow. 891 00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:20,399 Speaker 1: What about New England twelve and a half against the Browns. Uh. 892 00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,200 Speaker 1: I'm actually seeing some Brown lines already have the plus 893 00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,719 Speaker 1: four team out there. So I guess everyone's pounding the Patriots. 894 00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:30,120 Speaker 1: But like we said last week, like either you take 895 00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:32,560 Speaker 1: the Patriots, you just stay away from those sides. Like 896 00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:34,719 Speaker 1: I like the Browns in the spot, there's just way 897 00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,040 Speaker 1: too many points, Like the look at the look Ahead 898 00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,719 Speaker 1: I think was ten ten and a half. I don't 899 00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,120 Speaker 1: see how the Brown's got three points worse during a 900 00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:46,400 Speaker 1: bye week. Um, so I can do why you like 901 00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,200 Speaker 1: the Patriots. Why wouldn't you? The Browns look horrible. But 902 00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,040 Speaker 1: I'll be on the Brown side of that one. I 903 00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:55,319 Speaker 1: love the Browns in that spot. Yeah, that's a lot 904 00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:57,960 Speaker 1: of points. People like, this isn't the Dolphins, this is 905 00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,880 Speaker 1: Browns are. They're a bad team, but they're still not 906 00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:03,200 Speaker 1: the worst thing, the second best team in their division. 907 00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:07,480 Speaker 1: What do you have this radar at I had just 908 00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,880 Speaker 1: said ten, so when I saw I thought it was 909 00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:11,879 Speaker 1: getting good number last week, and it'll send a half 910 00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,759 Speaker 1: and then the pads absolutely destroyed the jets and this 911 00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:17,480 Speaker 1: is steaming up now. So it's that some books you 912 00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:19,319 Speaker 1: can get twelve and a half thirteen, and I'm seeing 913 00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,439 Speaker 1: fourteen and thirteen and a half. So it's just gonna 914 00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:23,520 Speaker 1: keep going up, it looks like until the sharp start 915 00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,520 Speaker 1: hitting the other side. So it's very possible. By the 916 00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:27,799 Speaker 1: time this line officially gets posted by the west Gate, 917 00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:33,960 Speaker 1: we're looking in New England minus fourteen right for the contest. 918 00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:37,000 Speaker 1: I mean, we can put that aside if Darren feels 919 00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:40,640 Speaker 1: that good about the paths. But well, the problem is 920 00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:44,440 Speaker 1: I feel but let's keep Let's keep uh Seattle minus 921 00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:46,680 Speaker 1: three and a half against Atlanta. We don't know whose 922 00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:50,560 Speaker 1: quarterback in there. I love that line that if that 923 00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:53,800 Speaker 1: line stage through in the super Contest, that's what it 924 00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,000 Speaker 1: opens that because they don't know who the quarterback is. 925 00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,440 Speaker 1: Either everyone's gonna take that line, so that's one of 926 00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,239 Speaker 1: those we can ride with everyone in the contest and 927 00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,200 Speaker 1: take Seattle, or we can just try to stay away 928 00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:06,080 Speaker 1: to get an advantage of right, we need a little 929 00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,279 Speaker 1: game theory there, right that that that's one of those 930 00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:10,879 Speaker 1: if you guys just want to ride with everyone else, 931 00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:12,960 Speaker 1: we can just take because everyone takes. That's a horrible 932 00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:15,120 Speaker 1: line because they're they're hanging that line acting like that's 933 00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:18,279 Speaker 1: with Matt Ryan, where it doesn't. I haven't seen any 934 00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:21,640 Speaker 1: reports in Matt Ryan playing. I don't know that I spoked. 935 00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:23,640 Speaker 1: I just spoked a Scooch when we talked about that game, 936 00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,239 Speaker 1: and he said that the difference between Matt Ryan and 937 00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:31,160 Speaker 1: Matt shob is about two points. That feels insanely disrespectful 938 00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:36,120 Speaker 1: and it's not for me. I got it. I got 939 00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,720 Speaker 1: a five and a half. So I mean, like, obviously 940 00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:42,640 Speaker 1: Vegas is going to weigh the system differently. But I 941 00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,239 Speaker 1: think Matt Matt Ryan has looked down upon, but he's 942 00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,759 Speaker 1: really good. Like I get people saw Matt shop drive 943 00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:49,400 Speaker 1: the field at the end of that game. That was 944 00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:52,280 Speaker 1: it was a junk time that was irrelevant. They're playing 945 00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:55,440 Speaker 1: press coverage, so I'm not buying the shop things, so 946 00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,200 Speaker 1: I would actually be on Seattle on that one alright, 947 00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:06,279 Speaker 1: last one from Darren Colts minus six. I love it. 948 00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:08,200 Speaker 1: I mean it's a good it's a good spot, like 949 00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:12,560 Speaker 1: the Colts. Colts are a really good team and they're 950 00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,360 Speaker 1: playing a really bad team. You're getting less than a touchdown. 951 00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:17,840 Speaker 1: So I mean, I'll be on the culture. But that 952 00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:21,520 Speaker 1: might be a trap spot. I mean we got we 953 00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:24,320 Speaker 1: got embarrassed with the trap spot last week, so I 954 00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,759 Speaker 1: might as one. I even mentioned that now I can't 955 00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:30,200 Speaker 1: talk about that game? What about all right? So that's that? 956 00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:37,080 Speaker 1: Those were Darren's picks? Like those picks there? What was 957 00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:40,000 Speaker 1: that sent? You like my you? You like my pick? Well, 958 00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:41,799 Speaker 1: it's like you're getting better. Mean, you're getting better as 959 00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:45,560 Speaker 1: these weeks go along. I'm not. I'm just getting more forceful, 960 00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:48,399 Speaker 1: you know. I feel like I don't know. I saw 961 00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:51,120 Speaker 1: the big lines and I was okay, I was fine 962 00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:54,040 Speaker 1: to sneak him. I I agree in some sense, I don't. 963 00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,600 Speaker 1: I don't like the figuring out on Miami's gonna have 964 00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:59,200 Speaker 1: a letdown. I like that game a lot. I think 965 00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:01,880 Speaker 1: the Browns a little bit is the most dangerous of 966 00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:06,160 Speaker 1: my picks, so I will let that one go easily. Um, 967 00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,480 Speaker 1: And I don't know. I I've never had confidence in 968 00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,640 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, but I'm off that. But I I I 969 00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,120 Speaker 1: really I do like the Dolphins of of my picks, 970 00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,480 Speaker 1: and and obviously if we have the three and a half, 971 00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:21,279 Speaker 1: where I would like to just take Seattle because I'm 972 00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,200 Speaker 1: not worried about it. I mean, I understand the game theory. 973 00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,040 Speaker 1: I think we're we're not at that point yet. You 974 00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:30,160 Speaker 1: can argue where at that point all week, but well season, 975 00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:31,759 Speaker 1: you can say it all season, you do that, but 976 00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,120 Speaker 1: I I just I want to worry about games that 977 00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,120 Speaker 1: I think I can win. First, let me ask a 978 00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:40,120 Speaker 1: different question, Simon, based forget about forget about game theory. 979 00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,760 Speaker 1: Based purely on ratings, we are the five biggest biggest 980 00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:48,480 Speaker 1: discrepancies for you, Like where am I seeing the most value? 981 00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:52,839 Speaker 1: Like we don't want to do that because we tried 982 00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:54,879 Speaker 1: doing that last week and that about was finding place 983 00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:58,600 Speaker 1: like good value this week, like for like sharp angle games, 984 00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,360 Speaker 1: is take gonna be Oakland? Like that was a a 985 00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:05,080 Speaker 1: false game last week. It was like we had three 986 00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:09,000 Speaker 1: different plays that were twenty one point swings. So if 987 00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,000 Speaker 1: you look at how that final score should have been, 988 00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:13,200 Speaker 1: we should have covered that number. So now they're getting 989 00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,080 Speaker 1: a ton of value this week Oakland, and then another 990 00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,000 Speaker 1: game that another thing that's gonna a ton of value 991 00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,040 Speaker 1: is going to be um and like we would never 992 00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:24,960 Speaker 1: do it is the Bengals. Like the Rams, I have 993 00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:26,680 Speaker 1: them in a nine and a half point faver here, 994 00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:29,320 Speaker 1: So like I'll be on the Bengals. No one in 995 00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:31,879 Speaker 1: the right bend, especially if you've met the Bengals last week, 996 00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:34,120 Speaker 1: you're covering the whole game and they give up I 997 00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:37,480 Speaker 1: think twenty points in the final five minutes. Is anyone's 998 00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:39,600 Speaker 1: gonna bet in the Bengals this week? So that's one 999 00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:41,640 Speaker 1: of those Like the pro these are lines gonna be taken, 1000 00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:43,960 Speaker 1: but these aren't good. These aren't good for a Super Contest. 1001 00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:47,280 Speaker 1: But my game that I really like for the Super 1002 00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:51,400 Speaker 1: Contest this week, that I know that it's gonna be 1003 00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:56,560 Speaker 1: a little bit of a chalk play. I do really 1004 00:55:56,640 --> 00:56:00,040 Speaker 1: like the the Colts here? What what then? Was in 1005 00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:04,240 Speaker 1: all the Super Contest? Let's do this, Let's take the Colts, 1006 00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:10,560 Speaker 1: Let's put Miami in there. I'd say let's take Seattle 1007 00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:14,080 Speaker 1: as an alternative, depending on where the line is. I 1008 00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:18,600 Speaker 1: want the Browns, So Darren, will you permit me to 1009 00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:25,880 Speaker 1: put the Browns in there? So this is what we 1010 00:56:25,960 --> 00:56:28,319 Speaker 1: talked about last week, though, let's not let's not get 1011 00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:34,560 Speaker 1: too cute, meaning but don't forget right like. I'd rather 1012 00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:39,279 Speaker 1: do Green Bay on Sunday night playing a backup and 1013 00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:42,040 Speaker 1: take the Browns. You know what I mean? What's your 1014 00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:45,279 Speaker 1: rating for green Bay? Right now? So I got them 1015 00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:47,640 Speaker 1: for this game in minus six and a half, and 1016 00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:49,919 Speaker 1: I know some books it's still for but I'm seeing 1017 00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:52,040 Speaker 1: a lot of other books already up to five, so 1018 00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:53,719 Speaker 1: it might be up five by the contest, but I 1019 00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:57,719 Speaker 1: still like that value. All right, I'll take I'll take 1020 00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:01,120 Speaker 1: green Bay, So right now, we'll do the Colts Miami 1021 00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:02,880 Speaker 1: green Bay. I want to throw one out there that 1022 00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:07,920 Speaker 1: I love, love Simon, give me the Panthers plus five 1023 00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:11,800 Speaker 1: and a half against the Niners. Ah. I love this 1024 00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:13,839 Speaker 1: from the sense that they're coming off a bye week, 1025 00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:16,320 Speaker 1: so they're gonna be a nice, while rested team playing 1026 00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:19,920 Speaker 1: an undefeated team that's due to do to lose. So 1027 00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:24,520 Speaker 1: I'll ride with you on those points. I love those points. 1028 00:57:24,640 --> 00:57:26,040 Speaker 1: How do you feel about having five and a half 1029 00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:28,840 Speaker 1: of the Panthers there? Let's remember how they were a 1030 00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:31,480 Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, right, and how everyone was taking 1031 00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,120 Speaker 1: him and then they've all no, Darren, you're not known, 1032 00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:36,720 Speaker 1: You're not remembering how they were a couple of weeks ago. 1033 00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:39,160 Speaker 1: That's not what you do. That's the opposite of what 1034 00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:41,320 Speaker 1: you're supposed to do. That's what gets you in Trump. 1035 00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:44,440 Speaker 1: That's what That's what Joe, that's I'm joke to public. 1036 00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:46,640 Speaker 1: So I remember they did really well a couple of 1037 00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,960 Speaker 1: weeks ago. Then they length of the bed, and then 1038 00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:52,440 Speaker 1: and and I do like the idea of of the 1039 00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,520 Speaker 1: well rested and the you know, the forty niners are 1040 00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:59,320 Speaker 1: are cocky and the only one nine nothing over the Ridskins. 1041 00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:02,680 Speaker 1: I'm saying, yes, okay, So I have my own methods, 1042 00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:04,920 Speaker 1: Chad of getting to where I need to get, and 1043 00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:06,960 Speaker 1: you don't work to me. Okay. So right now we 1044 00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:10,800 Speaker 1: got the Panthers, the Colts, the Dolphins, and Green Bay, 1045 00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:14,760 Speaker 1: and I feel like we have Seattle as an alternate 1046 00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:18,880 Speaker 1: um depending on where that where that line lands. Um, 1047 00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:21,160 Speaker 1: what's the what's the what's the what? Up up to 1048 00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:23,800 Speaker 1: five or up to four? What? What is the rule 1049 00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:29,080 Speaker 1: for which game? What's our rule for Seattle? We pick 1050 00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:32,880 Speaker 1: it unless it hits what number? Oh, I mean if 1051 00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:34,880 Speaker 1: it's if it's the backup, I'd take it up the 1052 00:58:34,920 --> 00:58:37,200 Speaker 1: six and a half because I'm not seeing any books 1053 00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:39,200 Speaker 1: with the line here. That's what's like. I'm seeing like 1054 00:58:39,320 --> 00:58:42,320 Speaker 1: the line that they did but originally took off the board, 1055 00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,360 Speaker 1: which is three and a half. But that might be 1056 00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:47,840 Speaker 1: what I'm working off of, right, So that's what like, 1057 00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:50,280 Speaker 1: I'm hoping that's what if the Super Contest comes out 1058 00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:51,680 Speaker 1: with that, we can ride with everyone else and just 1059 00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:55,919 Speaker 1: take that number. All right, do we need we need 1060 00:58:56,280 --> 00:59:02,360 Speaker 1: one more team, Simon, We're gonna go, Simon says. Simon says, take. 1061 00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:07,240 Speaker 1: Shimon said, its take, so my my favorite alternatives for 1062 00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:12,360 Speaker 1: the ones we have right now. I would hate to 1063 00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:14,240 Speaker 1: do it to Darren, but I do like the Jags 1064 00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:18,240 Speaker 1: at home against the Jeff. I don't like that game. 1065 00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:20,120 Speaker 1: You know what we have to do it, Simon says, 1066 00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:22,680 Speaker 1: we're playing. Simon says, well, we can just put that 1067 00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:28,160 Speaker 1: as an alternative. We're taking that if Seattle doesn't work, right, yeah, 1068 00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:31,360 Speaker 1: because that's that's that's the that's the Attle numbers end 1069 00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,080 Speaker 1: up being a good one. Like Darren's right, we shouldn't 1070 00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:37,400 Speaker 1: really be playing the percentages yet, so I'm definitely cool 1071 00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,920 Speaker 1: taking the Seattle one. All right. So we got the 1072 00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,080 Speaker 1: Jags minus five and a half. We got the Colts 1073 00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:46,720 Speaker 1: minus six, we got Miami plus fourteen and a half, 1074 00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:51,240 Speaker 1: we got I'm sorry, we got Green Bay minus four 1075 00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:55,200 Speaker 1: and a half, and we got the Panthers plus five 1076 00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,400 Speaker 1: and a half and maybe Seattle to replace the Jags, 1077 00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:02,280 Speaker 1: depending on what they get. To Desk, I like it. 1078 01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,040 Speaker 1: Anything is better than us back in a week where 1079 01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:07,160 Speaker 1: we go with Michigan. I don't think we'll ever have 1080 01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Michigan contest again. No Mitch, no Bengals. Like pretty soon, 1081 01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:14,520 Speaker 1: we won't have anyone to choose it all. That's that's 1082 01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:17,120 Speaker 1: the best part with you and I will take full responsibility. 1083 01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:20,840 Speaker 1: I will take full responsibility for the Dolphins. I feel 1084 01:00:20,920 --> 01:00:24,120 Speaker 1: really good about it, and I will own it either way. 1085 01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:27,440 Speaker 1: I'll be really cocky when we win, but if somehow 1086 01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:29,760 Speaker 1: things don't wind wind up where we need to be, 1087 01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:31,520 Speaker 1: I will own it. We'll probably find a way to 1088 01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:34,120 Speaker 1: blame you for it. Anyways. Yeah, I'll just say it's 1089 01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:36,000 Speaker 1: never a good signed. A professional don't gonna take a 1090 01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:42,040 Speaker 1: huge dog. I'll say that much. Simon Hunter, Dan Revel, 1091 01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:44,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming on the podcast. We'll 1092 01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:47,160 Speaker 1: talk to you guys next week. Alright, folks, I want 1093 01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:50,000 Speaker 1: to thank Bob Scucci from New Orleans and BOYD Gaming. 1094 01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:51,840 Speaker 1: I want to thank Dann Ravel from the Action Network. 1095 01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:54,200 Speaker 1: I want to tink. I want to thank Professional Better 1096 01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:59,360 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for joining me on the Favorites podcast. Downloaded 1097 01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:03,920 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast, rate review, Subscribe, Listen to it radio dot 1098 01:01:04,000 --> 01:01:08,439 Speaker 1: com search for the Favorites, get it wherever you get 1099 01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:11,200 Speaker 1: your podcasts. I am Chad Milman. Love you,