1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:03,160 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: your bets. This's bet Joey Pa Joe Pi's Apia, and 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: it's week thirteen. That means it's time to look ahead 4 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: to our favorite bets of the week for the games 5 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: in week thirteen. To help us do it is, of course, 6 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: Andrew Anderson himself, Andrew ericson the Prop Profit, and our 7 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: good pal, the college football host right here on Betting Pros, 8 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: mister Wan Scott bog In College football never sleeps, and 9 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: Bogman rarely does either, so we're happy he's waking up 10 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: early enough in the morning to join us. His time 11 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: to hang out and talk some ball with us. Bog's 12 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: you're gonna be taking us through these next few Thursdays. 13 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 1: We're excited to have you. I assume we're gonna have 14 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: some Bowls special stuff as well cooked up here on 15 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: the channel from you and Thor and your friends. 16 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 2: For sure. 17 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna continue doing that show, the preview show 18 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 3: during bowl season and go through the bulls as are happening. 19 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 3: So yeah, Conference Championship week, it's a huge week for 20 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 3: college football. But yeah, I'm picking all NFL stuff here 21 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 3: and it is going to be a fun week. 22 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:04,559 Speaker 2: I like this and you're lucky. 23 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 3: I woke up because my phone did a system update 24 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 3: and my alarm did not go off today. 25 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: Hey go the old am. I fairly made it. But 26 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: I'm here there you Ca Andderson tis the season for unders. 27 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: Pat fitz Morris and I were talking about it last Monday. 28 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: He put them all together and he had a very 29 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: nice parlay. I think he got three of the four 30 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: and he cashed out of the fourth one because it 31 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 1: just didn't want to get greedy, and that was the 32 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: one he didn't get. Right, So Pat fitz Morris a rocketed. 33 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: But Erickson, I mean a lot of these games, some 34 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 1: lower numbers we're going to see in these games today too, 35 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: coming up. But still, it's just like the quarterback play 36 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: continues to devolve in the NFL, and it keeps leading 37 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: to some low scoring affairs. 38 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, and if you notice, like a lot of times 39 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 4: when games go over, it's not because of the offenses, 40 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,639 Speaker 4: it's because defense is forced turnovers for a short field 41 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 4: like that Black Friday game. Oh god, it was ten 42 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 4: to six. I was feeling great about the under. Oh 43 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 4: then there's a hal Mary pick six, and then there's 44 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 4: another pick sex I'm like, great, now it's going to 45 00:01:59,600 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 4: go over. 46 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 2: So that's how the overs usually happen. 47 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 4: It's not because the offenses are just driving down the 48 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 4: field every single time and methodically scoring. It's really because 49 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 4: of turnovers that are causing games to go over. So 50 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 4: to your initial point, yeah, the offenses are still continuing 51 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 4: to underwhelm and that's why we're seeing more unders usually 52 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 4: than overs. 53 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: For words you don't hear put together very often, Hail Mary, 54 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: pick six doesn't happen very often. But leave it to 55 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: the jets jets, jets jets to find a way. All right, 56 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: Before we get to business, here a little bit of 57 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: free business. Remember we're giving away premium upgrades to betting 58 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: pros right now, so subscribe to the channel, drop your 59 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 1: comments below. We want to hear from you. What are 60 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: you in on this week in the NFL. Drop your picks, 61 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: drop your comments below, and you just might win a 62 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: one year free premium upgrade from us here at BP. 63 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: It's very easy to do. Don't forget to ring that 64 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: bell for notifications too, if you know if you are 65 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: the big winner, and if you haven't already downloaded the 66 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: Betting pros app. What are you waiting for? This is 67 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: the heat of the NFL season. We are in the 68 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 1: thick of it here. We've got playoffs around the corner 69 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: going to be fantastic. We're trying to help you win money. 70 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: So download that Betting pros app and remember if you 71 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: download it on Io West, you get three free days 72 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: of premium to try it out. It's great for NBA, NHL, NFL. 73 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: Any sport that starts with an end, as you can 74 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: think of, pretty much, we can bet on it. So 75 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: let's start things off here with our guest, Scott Bogman. 76 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: What do you have for the people? Week thirteen in 77 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: the NFL. 78 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 3: Let's start with Detroit minus four at New Orleans. I 79 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 3: know it's a road game, but the Lions are four 80 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 3: and one against the spread on the road this season. 81 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 3: The only loss was that big Baltimore stomping they took. 82 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 3: I know piece of Pa loves to call Jared Goff 83 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 3: an indoor cat, correct I do. And this one is 84 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 3: in the Superdome, so it is an indoor game for 85 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 3: Jared Goff. And there are three teams that have a 86 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 3: worse red zone touchdown percentage than New Orleans. Those three 87 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 3: teams are both New York teams and the Titans. That's it. 88 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 3: New Orleans is not converting once they get there. Michael Thomas, 89 00:03:56,040 --> 00:04:00,040 Speaker 3: Marshaun Latimore, Peyton Turner on the IR chrys Olaves and 90 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 3: Cushion proto. The Saints also had dnp's this week from 91 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 3: Cameron Jordan, Marcus May, Pete Warner, Rashid Shaheed, Kendrey Miller, 92 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 3: and even their kicker is limited here in practice this week, 93 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 3: and they're angry. This is an angry team with extra 94 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 3: rest off of Thanksgiving that just was embarrassed at home. 95 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 3: So I mean, I think Detroit is going to lay 96 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 3: the SmackDown on the Saints. 97 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 1: I don't think this is going to be very close game. 98 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: One of my top ten bets of the week called 99 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 1: my video I released earlier, I just don't get this 100 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: number at all Box and I made the same argument 101 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 1: you did, which is, this team just got their butt 102 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: kicked on national television on Thanksgiving and they've had a 103 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: long time to think about it. From the Packers, no less, 104 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 1: the team has been kicking their rear end for about 105 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: a decade and a half now two decades, So I mean, yeah, 106 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: with New Orleans being banged up as they are, this 107 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:50,799 Speaker 1: one makes a ton of sense to me. Ericson, let's 108 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 1: go for another round here. What do you have here 109 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: for the people Week thirteen? What are you picking? 110 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 4: I'm just copying, pasting what Bogman said that Detroit, all 111 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 4: three of ums. 112 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 2: I thought about bringing in. 113 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 4: I thought about bringing in the total in this, but 114 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 4: I was like, you know what, No, I don't want 115 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 4: to steer the people the wrong way. 116 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 2: Just want them to bet the winners. 117 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 4: And this is a winning bet in my opinions, the 118 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 4: Detroit Lions minus four. You know, when I was looking 119 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 4: at the lines Sunday night, as I usually do, you know, 120 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 4: scroll on, open up my apps, see oh Lions minus 121 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 4: three and a half against the Saints sick bet. Now 122 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 4: it's f minus four. So again I still like the 123 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 4: number there, But I want to point into the Saints direction, 124 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 4: talk about them and just how overrated and bad this 125 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 4: team is. You know, Box mentioned all the injuries. Look, 126 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 4: the Saints have failed to cover the spread last six 127 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 4: home games. They're not even they don't have a home 128 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 4: field advantage, Like, they're not even good at home. You 129 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 4: look at the team's just against the spread, this year. Again, 130 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 4: keeping in mind the Saints have played the easiest schedule 131 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 4: in the NFL. The Panthers are the only team that's 132 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 4: the worse against the spread in the NFC, the Panthers, 133 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 4: who just fired their head coach. The Saints are in 134 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 4: the same breath as the Panthers. An they're playing an 135 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 4: actual juggernaut team in my with the Detroit Lions and 136 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 4: no Lions laden bag. 137 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 2: But that's exactly why you're getting a. 138 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 4: Discount because they didn't play well a divisional game on 139 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,359 Speaker 4: a short week. Weird stuff happens. Okay, weird stuff happens 140 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 4: on short weeks coins divisional opponents. This is not that 141 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 4: type of matchup. Dan Campbell has ties back to New Orleans. 142 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 4: He used to coach there. I think he's going to 143 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 4: have a statement game here that they didn't have on 144 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 4: Thanksgiving and really show hey, no, we are for real, 145 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 4: we are for business here. 146 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 2: So I love the Lions here as well. 147 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: This number, by the way, on Fandel's already moved to 148 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,479 Speaker 1: four and a half, so get it while the getting's good. 149 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: I'm feel comfortable though right now if you run to 150 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: the alternate spread on certain spots, like on Fandel right 151 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: now you can get the minus six and a half 152 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: at plus one point thirty. I really like that, Like 153 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,239 Speaker 1: that is your sweet spot there, the six with the hook, 154 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: you know, because I do think they win this game 155 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: by more than a touchdown. In fact, I think they 156 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: win this digits. 157 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 4: One other thing I want to throw about the Lions 158 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 4: is when the Lion's playing more low scoring games, they 159 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,160 Speaker 4: tend to cover more often. So you look at the 160 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 4: games they haven't covered this year, three of the four 161 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 4: games have hit the over it have gone over fifty points. 162 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 4: So it's really been like shootouts that the Lions have loss, 163 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 4: which again that's when you're not things are a little 164 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 4: bit more random, you know, there's more scoring. The Saints 165 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 4: are not causing a shootout here. We just talked about 166 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 4: the red zone numbers, like they should literally take their 167 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 4: car out of the game inside the twenty yard line, 168 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 4: put Taysom Hill in like if. 169 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 3: They and their biggest playmaker is probably not gonna play either, 170 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 3: right Shahiton. So yeah, it's it's not great, all. 171 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: Right, Back to you, Bog. So we all love Detroit 172 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: and again I'm willing to push it to the six 173 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: and a half, but you get at the four. If 174 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: you get at the four and a half, lock it 175 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: in pretty soon. Bogs. Let's go talk about your next 176 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: pick for the week. I'm gonna go with. 177 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 3: The over in my Steelers versus the Cardinals in Pittsburgh game. 178 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: Here. It's forty one and a half. 179 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 3: And I know the Steelers are terrible at playing to 180 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 3: the over this year, right two and nine, But they 181 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 3: also had fifty eight games straight without four hundred yards 182 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 3: in a game. The first game Matt Canada is gone, 183 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 3: they go over four hundred yards. Maybe it's a weird coincidence. 184 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 3: I don't think it is, obviously. I've been calling for 185 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 3: this since before the season started, so I was happy 186 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 3: to see what they had. And I know Pickett is 187 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 3: questionable for this game, but I mean, guys, if you've 188 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 3: watched Picket play and you watch Trubisky play, you know 189 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 3: there's not a big difference between those two guys. Trubisky's 190 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 3: gonna make more big plays and he's also going to 191 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 3: turn the ball over more, which would be more points 192 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 3: in this game as well. So I'm kind of hoping 193 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 3: for this over that maybe Trubisky gets in here. But 194 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 3: the Cardinals great as the worst rushing defense in the NFL, 195 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 3: and the numbers back that up. The only two teams 196 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 3: giving up more rushing yards over the season are the 197 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 3: Broncos and Jets. The Steelers have the worst record playing 198 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 3: in the over Canada's gone all of that stuff. The 199 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 3: Cardinals have allowed the second most touchdowns this year at 200 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 3: thirty eight. Washington is the only team that has allowed 201 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 3: more touchdowns to them at thirty nine. And Kyler Murray 202 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 3: makes this a different offense. We're not watching Clayton Tune 203 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 3: get shut out here right. It's Kyler Murray playing against 204 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 3: the secondary that is helping. Hopefully, Mika Fitzpatrick is back, 205 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 3: but he's still kind of up in the air. I 206 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 3: think they expect him to play, but we'll see the 207 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 3: expecting to play last week and it didn't happen. So 208 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 3: the Steelers have played haven't played good offense in a while, 209 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 3: so their defensive numbers look great. But the last couple 210 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 3: of games since he was no Burrow Cleveland with DTR, 211 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 3: Green Bay and Tennessee, those are the offenses that they 212 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 3: faced recently. So while I do believe in my Steelers defense, 213 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 3: I don't know if it's as good as it has 214 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 3: played over the course of the last month. So I 215 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 3: think there may be a little back and forth to 216 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 3: this game. And the total is low, it's forty one 217 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 3: and a half. I think I think this game can 218 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:38,559 Speaker 3: go over. 219 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 1: When Matt Canada got fired, I know I texted immediately. 220 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: I'm sure your phone pretty much blew up, but I 221 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: don't remember what time of day it was. Did you 222 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: wake up to that? 223 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 3: That's why I need I woke up to it. I 224 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 3: think that's why I needed to do a system update 225 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 3: is because Matt Canada got fired. I had so many 226 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 3: texts and people's meeting was like, yeah. 227 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: Just like this glorious morning where you just will cup 228 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: and your phone was full of these messages. You can 229 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: see all the alerts and stuff. 230 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 3: You remember Groundhowk's day when he wakes up. I was 231 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 3: dancing around like Fred Astaire. 232 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: It was great. There you go. Good times. All right, 233 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: let's go to your take here, Ericson, because you've got 234 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 1: some feelings about this game as well. This Pittsburgh Arizona game. 235 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: What are they? 236 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm taking the Steelers minus five and a half again. 237 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 4: I like their offense in this spot here. Look, they're 238 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 4: gonna score points eventually because the more yards you put up, 239 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 4: the more like you're gonna score points. They left a 240 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 4: ton of points on the board last week. Some unlucky 241 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 4: plays here and there. I mean, Jalen Warren doesn't fumble, 242 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 4: they're gonna score. Deanta Johnson. If Mike Toma challenges the play, 243 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 4: they're gonna score. So the points are gonna come, especially 244 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 4: against the Cardinals defense, as Bogs outlined, is absolutely horrible, 245 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 4: both against the run and the pass. You can pretty 246 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 4: much do whatever you want against Arizona Cardinals. And we 247 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 4: just look at how the Steelers handle business against bad teams. 248 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 4: Have covered the spread last eight of nine games against 249 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 4: teams that held a losing record. 250 00:10:58,200 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: Like they beat up on bad teams. 251 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 4: Arizona Cardinals are a bad team, especially on the road. 252 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 4: Oh and six against the spread on the road. Arizona 253 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,199 Speaker 4: Cardinals like they're feisty. They're that plucky bunch, and when 254 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 4: they play in front of the home crowd, they go 255 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 4: on the road. Now, Kylin Murray's like, dude, I just 256 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 4: want to play call of duty, man Like, get me 257 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 4: out of here, get me back to get me back 258 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 4: to Arizona, get me, get me my game, re chair. 259 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:22,840 Speaker 4: I want to just play call of duty. So for me, 260 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 4: I'm all in on the Steelers this week. I like 261 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 4: the Steers team total over. I like the Steers to 262 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 4: cover the point spread at five and a half. That's 263 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 4: the best line that I'm seeing. So let's go. I'm 264 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,199 Speaker 4: ready for the steel Car, ready for Kenny Pickett to 265 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 4: go out here and throw for four touch. 266 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: Man, you are very in on the Kenny Pickett. We 267 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: just did a fancy show from your. 268 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 3: Lips to God's ears, So I mean it's. 269 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 4: Gonna happen eventually, right, I mean, he's ever gonna have 270 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 4: a game like it has to be this this week 271 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 4: has to be. 272 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: It has to be. All right, we'll see next one 273 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: on the list. 274 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 4: Here. 275 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: We're going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game. Caroline obviously 276 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: getting rid of Frank Reich and a lot of other 277 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 1: coaches too, which he does not vote very well for them. Now, 278 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 1: I am all in on Tampa winning this game handily, 279 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: and I mean handily. I think Evans is gonna have 280 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: a day. But you've got a different approach to this one. Box, 281 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 1: what is it? 282 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the under in this game. These teams 283 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 3: combine are six and sixteen playing to the over this year. 284 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 3: Their offenses are not great. Baker Mayfield is expected to 285 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 3: give it a go, but he's gonna be less than 286 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 3: one hundred percent most likely. And the Panthers might have 287 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 3: the worst offensive line I've ever seen in my life. 288 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 3: And I know I've said that for a bunch of 289 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 3: teams and offensive line plays down, quarterback plays down. But 290 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 3: I mean they are not giving Bryce young one damn 291 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 3: Mississippi to throw the football. Jonathan Mingo has been on 292 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 3: the field almost the entire season for this offense, and 293 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 3: what does he have eleven catches or whatever. 294 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:51,719 Speaker 2: It's absurd. 295 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: They never throw him. 296 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 3: The ball because he can't come off that first look. 297 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 3: He does not have time. And Zawola just went down, 298 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 3: who was one of the worst pass blocking guards in 299 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 3: the league. It's possible to upgrade by him going down 300 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 3: in pass blocking, but if this dude was the starter 301 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 3: who was backing him up, it is The line is bad. 302 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 3: I know they're switching, I know they're gonna play a 303 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 3: little more inspired, but I think that means this game 304 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 3: is going to be tight. The Panthers have scored fifteen 305 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,319 Speaker 3: or fewer points in seven of eleven games so far 306 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 3: this season. The Bucks haven't scored over twenty points in 307 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 3: their last three games. I know we expect this team 308 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 3: to play a little bit better. I do think that's 309 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 3: more of a college thing, you know, because everyone says, oh, 310 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 3: your coach gets fired. Yeah, everyone's happy, the wicked witch 311 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 3: is dead, and now all the players are happy and 312 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 3: they play better. I don't know if it's really like 313 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 3: that in the pros. I mean it is when a 314 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 3: guy like Matt Canada is so obviously the problem and 315 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 3: he leaves and then the whole offense opens up. I 316 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 3: don't know if Caroline is gonna get that and Tampa 317 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 3: Bay is gonna play good defense. We may see Kyle 318 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 3: Trask in this game at some point. Baker gets hurt. 319 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 3: Baker runs too much. He's been banged up in like 320 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 3: every game. He's been taking some big shots. I just 321 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 3: don't like either team to really score that much. 322 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: Last game. I'll sell you what, man, like I said, 323 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: I'm in on the five and a half on that game. 324 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: I just give me Tampa. I just think they're going 325 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 1: to roll over. I think Carolina is officially imploding in 326 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: of itself, and I think it can't get worse. It's 327 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: one to ten. Oh wait, it could get worse because 328 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: when you remove all these coaches, not just the head coach, 329 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: you're removing the quarterback coach, the running back coach. Like 330 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: you've taken a whole bunch of guys. Now you got 331 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: a game plan to go on the road in five days. 332 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's crazy. 333 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 3: And these guys weren't confused enough by what was happening before, 334 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 3: So let's change everything for him. 335 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: All right? Ericson the most public game of the week 336 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 1: has got to be this Philly San Francisco game. Derek 337 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: Brown and I on the DFS podcast talked about having 338 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: exposure to it, but it might be smart to also 339 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: have some lines where you've faded all together in case 340 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: it doesn't live up to the hype. But you think 341 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: it's going to because you are going to take the 342 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: over on this, So let's talk about this one. 343 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, because and the sea of unders across the NFL 344 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 4: one game stood above the rest San Francisco forty nine 345 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 4: ers and the Philadelphia Eagles over forty seven points. Look, 346 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 4: I think it's pretty simple here. You have two elite 347 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 4: offenses and the weakest unit that's gonna be playing on 348 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 4: the Field on Sunday in this game is Eagles defense, 349 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 4: and I don't think that's a hot take whatsoever. Eagles 350 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 4: defense ranks twenty eight in the red zone forty nine 351 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 4: Ers sixth best red zone offense. The average total between 352 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 4: these two teams this year in games they've played forty 353 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 4: seven and a half, so on average they're going over 354 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 4: this forty seven point total against a normal average opponent. 355 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 4: But now you're facing an elite offense on the other 356 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 4: side of the field. I mean, look at how teams 357 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 4: attack these two defenses number one and number two respectively 358 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 4: in pass rate faced. So what are these teams going 359 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 4: to do. They're entering the game knowing, hey, we have 360 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 4: to chuck the ball a ton. We have to score 361 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 4: a ton of points. So you're gonna see super aggressive 362 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 4: game plans, some of what we saw with the Bills 363 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 4: and Eagles. People were fading that game last week because 364 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 4: of the rain. It didn't matter because the teams had 365 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 4: to score points in that game to win. So even 366 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 4: in the pouring rain, you had a game go over 367 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 4: sixty points in Philadelphia, which again I love Ford Field 368 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 4: as the chorus field the NFL, but Philadelphia, oh is 369 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 4: given Ford field run for its money. Despite playing being outside. 370 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 4: The games played this season in Philadelphia average fifty fifty 371 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 4: nine point five points, almost sixty points per game in Philadelphia. 372 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 4: Phillies four to one towards the over at home, and 373 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 4: the only game that went under was against the Dolphins, 374 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 4: which still almost hit fifty points, but it was a 375 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 4: very high total game. 376 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 3: Oh. 377 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 1: I think a lot of that also has to do 378 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 1: with the schedule of the Eagles too, which is pretty 379 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: much the best gauntlet of the NFL. That they're running, 380 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: and they are running and winning all these games so far. 381 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: That they're going against these big time teams. So when 382 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 1: you're playing, you know, the Chiefs of the Cowboys, and 383 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: now the forty nine ers are gonna play the Cowboys again, 384 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: I mean the Buffalo Bills last week. You're playing elite offenses. 385 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: So that doesn't surprise me that that number is very high. 386 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: And this is another opportunity here. I think the two 387 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: worst units on this field are the two secondaries of 388 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: these two respective teams. I'm all for, you know, some 389 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: of the passing yardage overs. I'm all for a J. Brown. 390 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: I just don't know about that total. I can't wait 391 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: to see this I'm on the under here, but I 392 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: like that you're on the over, Erics, and this is fun, bogmin. 393 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: You want to break the tie on this one. 394 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 3: I'm on the under too because I think it's under. 395 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,640 Speaker 3: I do, I do, but but here's the here's my reasoning. 396 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 3: And look, I'm first of all, I'm gonna stay away. 397 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 3: I'm not. I'm gonna watch this game and be a 398 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 3: happy little man that knows. I know no money on it, 399 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 3: so I'm just gonna enjoy the result of it. But 400 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 3: what I think, I think one of the worst units 401 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 3: on this field is the pass blocking from the Niners, 402 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 3: and we've seen Perty get overwhelmed. Now, look, this is 403 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 3: why I don't want to bet this game, because I 404 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 3: feel like he can go either way. But if they 405 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 3: start putting, really the Eagles can put pressure on a quarterback, 406 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 3: but if they don't get that pressure, they're getting beat 407 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 3: over the top every single time. So it's will the 408 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 3: pass rush of the Eagles get to party and start 409 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 3: to mess with him because since that bye week he 410 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 3: has been laser locked in focused. 411 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:06,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, cookie, opponents, let's be honest, but I mean that 412 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 1: that's just at all gives you confidence, dude, he's got 413 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: the confidence. You go into Philadelphia, go in a big 414 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: road game in the most side. Can I finish my point? 415 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: I'm on your side. I finished my point, yes, but 416 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 1: are you? 417 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 3: Because look, if they don't get the party, Party's gonna 418 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 3: carve him up. 419 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 1: May He's definitely gonna go over. 420 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 3: But if they start hitting Party, this is gonna be 421 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 3: a lopsided game. So I don't want to mess. I 422 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 3: don't want to touch it. 423 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 4: There's no defensive game plan that can stop Healthyll George Kittle, 424 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 4: Deebo Samon right now. You It's literally impossible. And the 425 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 4: only reason it stopped because Carls Garrett. If they could 426 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 4: stop it, because. 427 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 2: Guys were injured. Trick Williams was injured in that game. 428 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: He got injured in that game. He wasn't injured the 429 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 1: entire game. He was injured that game. Yes, he got 430 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: injured in that game. He wasn't out for the entire game. 431 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 1: He got hurt in the. 432 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 2: First injured in the game. Is it not a hundred? 433 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: Can wait? Welsh is on tomorrow on the prop Bet 434 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: Show because he's mister forty nine, and I'm going to 435 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 1: tease him about this because again, I keep saying it, 436 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:07,920 Speaker 1: everyone can say it again. I want to see brock 437 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 1: Perty go on the road in Philadelphia with that crowd 438 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 1: and win, and if he does, I'm going to sing 439 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: his praises. Monday, I'm gonna tell you they found the 440 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 1: next guy who's gonna lead them to a championship and 441 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 1: all that stuff. But if he doesn't, and Jalen Carter's 442 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: sitting on top of his helmet, guess what, it's gonna 443 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 1: be another thing where we all get back here and 444 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: go maybe the forty nine ers aren't as good as 445 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: we thought they were, which is the same thing everybody 446 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: was saying four weeks ago, and now all of a 447 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: sudden they are the conquering heroes because they beat up 448 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: on the Seattle Seahawks and a couple other lane teams 449 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: in the middle of the pack. Color me unimpressed. Go 450 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,919 Speaker 1: beat the Eagles in Philadelphia, then I'll annoint you as 451 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 1: the front runner. Next, we've got another Scott Bogman pick. 452 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: That was fun. Scott Bogman, what do you have here 453 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: for the people? On week thirteen? 454 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 3: Give me Jacksonville minus eight and a half for Cincy 455 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 3: on Monday Night football. And this is because of what 456 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 3: I saw from the Bengals. I mean, Joe Burrows a 457 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 3: magician and he made it work behind that bad offensive 458 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 3: line that the Bengals had, But Jake Browning couldn't do 459 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 3: it in The Bengals defense isn't going to save this game. 460 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,199 Speaker 3: The Bengals have a very good pass rush, but the 461 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 3: rest of the defense is garbage. They're twenty six and 462 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 3: passing yards allowed twenty ninth and rushing yards allowed. They 463 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 3: great in the bottom ten in PFF run defense, dead 464 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 3: last in coverage. The Steelers led the Bengals in time 465 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 3: of possession in their first non Borough game thirty seven 466 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: to seventeen to twenty two forty three. Jacksonville is finally 467 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 3: starting to click over the last couple games on offense, 468 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 3: with three hundred and eighty nine yards against the Titans 469 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,719 Speaker 3: and four hundred and forty five against Houston. Trevor Lawrence 470 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,880 Speaker 3: is really starting to click. He had the four touchdowns 471 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 3: two weeks ago in a season high three hundred and 472 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 3: sixty four yards against Houston last week. I know that 473 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 3: Cam Robinson is out, but Walker Little is at least 474 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 3: a viable replacement for him on the offensive line of 475 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 3: the Jags here, so or Anton Harrison is okay, I 476 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 3: mean he's not, but I just don't think. I don't 477 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 3: think since he they have nothing when Burrow is out. 478 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 3: They have good playmakers, but Brownie can't get them the ball. 479 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 3: I mean, their longest catch in the game against Pittsburgh 480 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 3: was a thirty one yarder that was almost intercepted that 481 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 3: Jamar Chase had to make an incredible play on and 482 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 3: then everyone was standing around flat footed like their Deontae 483 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:24,879 Speaker 3: Johnson during a fumble. So I just I hated what 484 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 3: I saw from the Bengals last week, and I think 485 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 3: they are going to get smashed on Monday night, Monday 486 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 3: night football on the road in Jacksonville. I don't think 487 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 3: this is going to be a bloodbath. 488 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: All right? Ericson, what do you have next for the 489 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: people for week thirteen? What's your next pick? 490 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 4: Tennessee Titans plus one. I mean Tennessee Titans on the 491 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 4: money line. I mean they're playing at home, Like guys 492 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 4: like this is the trend that you want to follow. 493 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 4: With the Falcons, you bet him at home. The Titans, 494 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 4: you bet him at home. Four and oh against the spread. 495 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 4: In Nashville and Music City, they don't lose at home. 496 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 4: They cover the spread at home, and they're underdogs at 497 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 4: home for I don't know what reason. Again, Yeah, the 498 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 4: Colts sure like they're a team that covers the spread. 499 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 2: The play. They got Garter Minshew, he's got a mustache. 500 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 2: We love Shane Stike. 501 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 4: Yes, but they're not a better team on paper than 502 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 4: the Titans. So I'm taking the Titans at home. I 503 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 4: think this is easy. They've averaged twenty five points per 504 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 4: game at home. They can run the football at home. 505 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 4: What has this Colts defense been lacking is their run defense. 506 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 4: Since they lost Grover Stewart to a six game suspension, 507 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 4: they have been destroyed by running backs recently. Since Week seven, 508 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 4: they faced five running backs who have all gone over 509 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 4: their projected rushing totals. Derrick Henry in December over five 510 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 4: yards per carry. This is the guy that you want 511 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 4: to bet on at home. So I think the Titans 512 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 4: are gonna win. 513 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 3: Uh. 514 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: Just for clarity, ericson where are the Titans playing this weekend? 515 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 2: They're playing in Nashville, at. 516 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 1: Home, at home, at home. To rewind to the beginning 517 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: of that rent where like they're playing at home. This 518 00:22:53,359 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 1: happensang you because that's why I'm betting Tyler are our 519 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: social guy to put a counter of the at homes. 520 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,680 Speaker 1: All right, time for all the last picks of the week. 521 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 1: Here for Week thirteen, bogs. You got a fun one here, 522 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: you got a little parlay action. I'm digging it. Let's go. 523 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna do an away teams win money line 524 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 3: parlay Miami at Washington wins, Detroit at New Orleans, which 525 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 3: we already talked about wins, and the Chargers at your Patriots. Guys, 526 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 3: I'm you know, sorry, sorry, I. 527 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 2: Know which leg's gonna blow it for you. 528 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, because you don't want the 529 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:36,199 Speaker 3: Patriots win exact Chargers, but that I was gonna take 530 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 3: a different team. I can't remember who it was, but 531 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 3: I couldn't get the juice to double up. So it's like, 532 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 3: I still think the Chargers aren't good, but they're better 533 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 3: than the Patriots, who look like they've given up and 534 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 3: have no idea what quarterback is going to be. It 535 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 3: doesn't matter. They're both terrible. So that is plus two 536 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 3: to one when I put it in last night, straight 537 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 3: up on the money line. Those three away teams road 538 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 3: teams not normally something I like to do. But Miami 539 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 3: is like a nine and a half point favorite. We 540 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 3: talked about how much we think Detroit is gonna smash 541 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 3: and right now the Patriots are playing the worst football 542 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 3: in the NFL. So I mean, I like this money line, 543 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 3: parlay a lot and you're doubling up your money. 544 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,400 Speaker 1: So all right, ericson, take us home one more pick 545 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: for week thirteen? What do you have? 546 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 4: Of course I got to bring an actual under here 547 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 4: or else. No course, pitchforks back. This isn't Andrew Anderson, 548 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 4: what's going on? So but I'm going with a primetime 549 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 4: under because those have been hitting at an unstoppable rate 550 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 4: this season. So Kansasity and Green Bay under forty two 551 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 4: and a half points on Sunday Night Football, green Bay 552 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 4: four and one towards the under at home. This season, 553 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 4: six of the Chiefs last seven games have gone under 554 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 4: the point total. That's because Chiefs games have been so 555 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 4: blowed in terms of their totals when they open, because 556 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 4: that was the Chiefs. It's like, guys, if we watched 557 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 4: football this year, like the Chiefs offense, the offense. 558 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 2: Yeah they're defensive. 559 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 4: Let's run the ball and play defensive team, Like that's 560 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 4: how they win games and against Green Bay and Jordan 561 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 4: Love who, Yes, he's looked better in the last recent weeks, 562 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 4: but it's because he's faced bad secondaries. 563 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 2: He's faced the Lions, he's faced the Chargers. 564 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 4: The Chiefs are one of the top defensive units, especially 565 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 4: against the pass, this season, so I think the under 566 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 4: is definitely the play here. 567 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 2: Overall, the Chiefs are eight and three towards the under. 568 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,439 Speaker 4: The teams have combined eight and fourteen towards the end 569 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 4: of this year, and they've averaged forty and a half 570 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 4: points in totals of their games, So it's like the 571 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,640 Speaker 4: total is set at forty two and a half, so 572 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,439 Speaker 4: that meeting projection is already higher than what these teams 573 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 4: do on average. I think there's just a lot of 574 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 4: value just taking the under, and then you're throwing in 575 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 4: all the trends of Okay, primetime unders like these hit 576 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 4: and I love the number where it is at forty 577 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 4: two and a half, But I just think is still 578 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,159 Speaker 4: giving too much credence to oh, well, the Chiefs, like 579 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 4: they still have Patrick Mahomes, Like yeah, but it doesn't 580 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 4: matter because he's throwing to nobody's He's throwing to Jabroni's 581 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 4: I do like Roschie Rice, But yeah. 582 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: I knew, but yeah, I understand what you're saying. 583 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,680 Speaker 2: All right, the ages is coming out in me again. 584 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:56,479 Speaker 2: There you go. 585 00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 1: Let's recap all the picks. We're all in on at 586 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: the minus four over New Orleans, I'm okay putting it 587 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: to minus six and a half to get that plus 588 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,639 Speaker 1: one thirty number on it. Bogmin's in on Arizona at 589 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh going over forty one and a half, Carolina, Tampa 590 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 1: under thirty seven, Jacksonville by the eight and a half 591 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:17,280 Speaker 1: again Cincy, and then that three away game parlay Miami 592 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: Detroit and the Chargers at plus two to oh one. 593 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: Ericson's in Pittsburgh at the five and a half. He's 594 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 1: got the over forty seven for Philadelphia, San Franz, Tennessee 595 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,399 Speaker 1: on the money line, or you could take the e 596 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 1: plus one and a half either way and then the 597 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 1: Casey Green Bay under. Don't forget everybody, it's not just 598 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 1: NFL here. We've also got NBA content right here on 599 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 1: the channel. Tune into our new show Fast Break Bets, 600 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 1: the ultimate source for NBA insights with Matt Mody, every 601 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: Wednesday and every Friday eleven am Eastern live here on 602 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Subscribe to the YouTube channel, 603 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: drop your comment below, ring the bell. 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Just join that community tab 611 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 1: on our app or go to Bettingpros dot com slash 612 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 1: NFL Contest today to join, and the grand prize winner 613 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,879 Speaker 1: gets a Jackson Smith in JIGBA autograph jersey. That'll do 614 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 1: it for us, but the story of the game goes 615 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 1: on for Bogman and Anderson. I'm Joey P. We'll see 616 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 1: you next time. Kids. 617 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 618 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 619 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts 620 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,359 Speaker 3: or Spotify. 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