1 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:08,479 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. When I last had 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: my two guests on, it was June second, and an 3 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: unbelievable amount has changed for me personally. I could never 4 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: have projected every in a whole bunch of alternative histories. 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 1: I could not have invented from June second to today. 6 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: So I want to have these two experts back just 7 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: to get a flavor from some really experienced guys. Two 8 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: of the most experienced and well known posters in the 9 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: Democrat and Republican parties. John McLaughlin the CEO and partner 10 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: at McLaughlin Associates, a national survey research and strategic services company. 11 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: He's worked professionally as a strategic consultant and poster for 12 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: over thirty five years, and he's worked as an advisor 13 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: and polster for President Donald Trump and Doug Susnik. Doug 14 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: played a key role as an advisor of President Bill 15 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 1: Clinton from nineteen ninety four to two thousand. Doug played 16 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: a key role in policy strategy, political and communications decisions 17 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: in the White House. He has advised multiple US Senators, governors, 18 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: fortune one hundred corporations, foundations, and universities for thirty five years. 19 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: John and Doug I want to welcome you back. Could 20 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 1: either of you have imagined the last seven weeks? 21 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 2: Actually, it's like one of your historical novels, Like you 22 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: couldn't even thought of this plot when you think about it, 23 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 2: the idea of everything that's gone on. You know, when 24 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 2: you talk about the national polls, we published a national poll. 25 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 2: It's really interesting to me, is because we're going to 26 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 2: end up talking about polls. Is that we put out 27 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: a poll the day before the debate in June, and 28 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: Trump won the debate handily, and Doug sent me some 29 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 2: polls after it. But you think about it, he won 30 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 2: the debate, the Democrats are calling for his withdrawal. He 31 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 2: then survives in an assassin's bullet. He then has a Republican 32 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 2: convention where the party's totally transformed the Party of Trump. 33 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 2: They're united behind him. And that's Sunday after it, Joe 34 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 2: Biden withdraws and hand picks Kamil Harris as his successor. 35 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 2: So the poll we did the day before the debate 36 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 2: Trump was up to and he always argues with me, 37 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 2: why I'm not up more? And I'm like, it's modeled 38 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 2: after the twenty twenty turnout a certain amount of Democrats, 39 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 2: certain amount of liberals, you're never getting their votes. It's closed. 40 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,920 Speaker 2: The poll we did after Kamil Harris came in at 41 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 2: the beginning of August, Trump's up to and like Dougsman saying, 42 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: you know, you gotta wait to lift the labor day 43 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: after the conventions and everything. But I'm not sure there's 44 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 2: that much movement in the electorate one way or the other. 45 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: But you know, if you look at the political press, 46 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: which of course has to write something every day, and 47 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: if you're twenty four hour cable news, you have to 48 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: think up something every hour, There's been all this turmoil, 49 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: all this excitement. Biden collapses in the debate, willia or 50 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: will he not get off the ticket? Calisto walks and 51 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: have said to me, Joe Biden just Withdrew and I said, 52 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,679 Speaker 1: this is Babylon b right. She said no. Two or 53 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 1: three hours later, Kamala Harris, who we all knew couldn't 54 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 1: possibly run, is not only running, she's got his endorsement 55 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: and she's the nominee. I've never seen anything like it 56 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: for being a roller coaster. But Doug, what's your experience 57 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: of the last six or seven weeks. 58 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:40,119 Speaker 3: First of all, I absolutely could never have predicted where 59 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 3: we be today. However, would say that at the beginning 60 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 3: of twenty twenty three, I thought having a Trump Biden 61 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: rematch was defined the laws of political gravity. So I 62 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 3: did think something was going to happen. In fact, I 63 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 3: wrote something at the end of twenty twenty three about 64 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 3: the race where I started talking about Linda Johnson getting out. Now, 65 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 3: I was probably a little too wimpy, and I was 66 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 3: implicitly suggesting Biden get out, but I didn't say it 67 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 3: out loud. But I didn't predict it, but I wanted 68 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 3: to just if I could build on. But john said 69 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 3: a minute ago, everything is different about this race than 70 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 3: it was. 71 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 4: On the other hand, in a lot of ways, a 72 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 4: lot hasn't changed. 73 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,799 Speaker 3: And if you take October early November of twenty twenty 74 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 3: three until the debate is six seven months. 75 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 4: That was a very consistent race. Trump was ahead narrowly, 76 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 4: but it was a durable lead both nationally and in 77 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 4: the battleground states. Despite the fact that you know, Biden 78 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 4: had a job approval in the thirties, you had almost 79 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 4: seventy percent of the country said we're heading the wrong direction. 80 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 4: We had a stable race where Biden was really prior 81 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 4: to the debate. You know, I wouldn't say it's fifty 82 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 4: to fifty, but he started shot it win. You've now 83 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 4: had with Biden's withdrawal, and Harris's sort of like a 84 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 4: tornado that swept through. I think she is ahead now, 85 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 4: but I think that owl's not the time to to 86 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 4: really assess where the race stands, and we can talk 87 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 4: about that in polling in a minute. Despite the fact 88 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 4: that I don't think Harris has lost this no news 89 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 4: cycle in the last month, she is like a tornado. 90 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,480 Speaker 4: Having said all that, the race is close, and it's 91 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 4: within a couple of points, and it's the same states 92 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 4: that are going to determine the outcome. 93 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 3: But I think that there's maybe a little bit over 94 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 3: exuberance on the Democratic side. If nothing else, we're coming 95 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 3: out of a profound period of depression when Biden goes 96 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 3: out of the ticket. But I think the race is 97 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 3: a lot closer than maybe what your rank and file 98 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,799 Speaker 3: Democrat or what you're a mainstream media person is depicting 99 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 3: right now. 100 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: It's almost like the country has polarized into these two tribes, 101 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: and all you need to know is who's the leader 102 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: of my tribe. I'm for him. Now tell me what 103 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: else is going on? Do you sort of sense that 104 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: the country in that sense has frozen into a tribalism 105 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 1: that makes thinking about winning the elections different than it 106 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 1: would have been have been around so long. I mean, 107 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: I look at examples like Reggo Carter or like George H. W. 108 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: Bush Doucaucus. I'm not sure we have the fluidity that 109 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: we had back then. The two tribes may be pretty 110 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: decisively structured, but what do you two think. 111 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 2: I think you're right as we're seeing less swing voters 112 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 2: and less moving where all of a sudden you could 113 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 2: have Reagan winning with sixty percent of the vote. Doesn't 114 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 2: look possible now in the electric because there's an Obama 115 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,840 Speaker 2: coalition that got built when he won in two thousand 116 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 2: and eight. That was really a new Democratic coalition where 117 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 2: it was based on a maximum turnout of minority support, 118 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 2: It was based on tracting Latinos, based on transitioning college 119 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 2: educated voters into the Democrat Party, and it was also 120 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 2: based on younger voters. And the Democrats have worked in 121 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 2: the younger voters. I mean, we used to do palling 122 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: for MTVA when Bush was President etc. Were the token Republicans. 123 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 2: But the Democrats that was the one cohort. They would 124 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 2: win the voters under thirty et cetera. And Bush. When 125 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 2: you look at his win over Kerry, it was only 126 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 2: fifty one to forty eight, and that's the last majority 127 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 2: Republican win. And there were lots of wronging polls then too. 128 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 2: But Trump, when he won the Republican campaign with his 129 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 2: positions on trade and immigration, represented a transformation in the 130 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 2: Republican campaign in opposite to the Obama coalition. So the 131 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 2: Trump coalition, we were going to bring out new voters 132 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 2: who were in the heartland of America. They were from 133 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 2: the rest Belt and the Sun Belt, and they were 134 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 2: the ones who during the eight years of Obama kind 135 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 2: of got hurt badly. And then after COVID and then 136 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 2: after Biden, Trump was attracting pieces of the Obama coalition. 137 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 2: The Biden twenty twenty voter who became a Trump twenty 138 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 2: four voter was a quarter black, quarter Hispanic. Average age 139 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 2: was thirty five, and they were still working class voters 140 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 2: that they were attracted to the Republican Party. That the 141 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 2: Republican Party has become the working class voter and In 142 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 2: Doug's writings, he's talked about how you have the smallest 143 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 2: share of the electorate that the white working class voter now, 144 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 2: but they're still significant in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. And Trump 145 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 2: his ability to win in twenty sixteen when he said, 146 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 2: how are we going to win? We los into all 147 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 2: these polls to Hillary Clinton. I said, you know, a 148 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 2: lot of voters didn't vote for Mitt Romney. They walked away. 149 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 2: All one hundred and thirty million voted. It was ninety 150 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 2: million voters who were eligible who didn't vote. I said, 151 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,439 Speaker 2: We're going to bring out new voters, these casual Republican voters, 152 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 2: and they were the ones who It wasn't an Obama 153 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 2: voter who switched to Trump that created the two hundred 154 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 2: and eight Pivot counties. It was new voters coming in 155 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 2: that we had nine million more voters than the Romney 156 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 2: Obama fight. But then David Pluff in twenty twenty took 157 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 2: to a new level where the Democrat strategy was based 158 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 2: on not winning battleground states, battleground counties within the battleground 159 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 2: states where they're registered voters who would have been Hillary voters, 160 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 2: and then made it easier for them to vote, and 161 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 2: now he's running the Harris campaign with Axelrod's TV firm. 162 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 2: So the Republicans are not only up against a new candidate, 163 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 2: but they're up against a strategic team that has changed 164 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 2: American politics before. 165 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: One of the big changes when Biden leaves is you 166 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: now do get the Obama team, which Biden wouldn't use, 167 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: and I think they're remarkably better than the team that 168 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 1: Biden had. Doug, what's your sense of the degree to 169 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: which polarization limits the potential swing in vote support? 170 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 3: First of all, the Abama team is far better than 171 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,559 Speaker 3: the Biden came in. Secondly, John has actually been seven 172 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 3: out of the last eight presidential elections Republicans have not 173 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 3: gotten the majority of the votes. And I think that 174 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 3: in lies one of the problems that the challenges that 175 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 3: Democrats have right now, which is the electoral College. And 176 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 3: I think it is favoring the Republicans in terms of 177 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 3: two Americas. We are in two Americas, and I think 178 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 3: all you have to do really is just look at 179 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 3: twenty minutes of the Republican convention a month ago with 180 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 3: the SoundOff, and just look at twenty minutes of the 181 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 3: Democratic convention this week without the SoundOff, and you'd think 182 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 3: we're in two completely different countries based on that, and 183 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 3: we are right now in tribes and it is frozen 184 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 3: for now. And I think the two best predicters one 185 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 3: is John's alluded to, which is a level of education 186 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 3: people have, and the Republicans are now more of a 187 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 3: working class party. 188 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 4: For the first time. 189 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 3: In the last election, white working class voters constituted less 190 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 3: than forty percent of the vote. However in the three 191 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 3: industrial Midwestern states they constitute over fifty percent of the vote. 192 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 3: When we were all starting in politics, Democrats better in 193 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 3: presidential years and Republicans and off years because occasional voters 194 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 3: are Democrats. Well, now occasional voters are Republican. So the 195 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 3: two best predictors, well, there's one best predictor for sure, 196 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 3: which is education, which John mentioned, and that's part of 197 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 3: I think how that is now transcending even race since 198 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 3: the twenty twelve Romney campaign that Trump has been doing 199 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 3: so much better with Hispanic voters and it really does 200 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 3: cut by educational levels. With the second issue, or the 201 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 3: second factor, which I think is going to be more 202 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 3: pronounced in this election than it has in any election, 203 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 3: is the gender gap which has been existing in American 204 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 3: politics since the nineteen eighty Raging campaign, and I think 205 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 3: this is going to be a historic gender gap, both 206 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 3: because of the nature of the Harris candidacy but also 207 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 3: the nature of the Trump candidacy. The last thing, I'll say, 208 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 3: we are frozen and we will stay frozen until this generation, 209 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 3: our generation moves off. 210 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 4: The political scene. 211 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 3: I do think when we have the millennials of the 212 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 3: gen Z's taking over our country, I think that we 213 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 3: will unfreeze this cultural divide that really started in the 214 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 3: nineteen sixties. 215 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: When you go down to governorships in both sides, you 216 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 1: see people who win huge victories as governor Democrats and Republicans, 217 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: and then of course you get up to the national level, 218 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: it sort of evens out because all the states where 219 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 1: the Democrats win huge margins tend to be for the 220 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: Democrats in the states where the Republicans, you know the Santis' 221 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: margin in Florida, which when I was first in politics, 222 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: it was inconceivable that you'd have Florida as a basically 223 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: Republican state. But the changes have been that profound. 224 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 3: That's all driven by how the tribalism. It's all driven 225 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 3: by educational level. So forty out of fifty states are 226 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 3: controlled by one political party, overwhelmingly controlled by one political party. 227 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 3: I might add forty out of fifty states. That's this tribalism, 228 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 3: which right now the single best predictor of where a 229 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 3: community falls politically is the level of education of people 230 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 3: in that community. 231 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 1: Which is also a remarkable shift from say nineteen sixty 232 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 1: when you would have thought education meant that the Republicans 233 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 1: were carrying college and graduate school level and Democrats were 234 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: carrying high school and two year college level. 235 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 3: It started somewhat with Clinton, but it really started in 236 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 3: the two thousands. John mentioned about the Obama coalition in 237 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 3: two thousand and eight, and there was one major component 238 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 3: of the Obama coalition in two thousand and eight that 239 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 3: has moved to Trump and the Republicans and stayed there, 240 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 3: and that's white working class people. So you had two 241 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 3: hundred and six counties in the United States and voted 242 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 3: for Obama in two thousand and eight, Obama in twenty twelve, 243 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 3: and voted for Trump in twenty sixteen. Two hundred and 244 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 3: six counties. Now in twenty twenty only twenty six of 245 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 3: them went to Biden and so that coalition that was 246 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 3: part of the Obama coalition was overwhelmingly white, non college 247 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 3: older voters in the areas of the country part is 248 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 3: hit by glization in trade with China. That part of 249 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 3: the Obama coalition is now firmly the core of the 250 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 3: Republican Party, which really started politically. It first showed up 251 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 3: an American politics. Remember, as we all know, politics is 252 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 3: a lagging indicator of what's going on in our country. 253 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 4: It's not a leading indicator. 254 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 3: And so the first time it showed up politically it 255 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 3: was in nineteen ninety two with Pat Buchanan's primary against 256 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 3: Bush and then the Paro candidacy where he got almost 257 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 3: twenty million votes. 258 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: If you looked at the two conventions, the Republican convention 259 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: is a post revolutionary convention in terms of who's there. 260 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: President bo Brush is not there, Vice President Cheney's not there, 261 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: Vice President Pence is not there. There is really a 262 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: profound shift and who shows up at the Republican convention. 263 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: If you look at the Democratic Convention, the entire machines there, 264 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: I mean, nobody's missing. And I just thought it was 265 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: a very interesting comment on change in the two parties 266 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: and the whole notion that, in a sense, the establishment 267 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: intervened in twenty twenty to block Sanders, then accepted Biden, 268 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: and then they decided right after the Biden Trump debate 269 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: that Biden would lose, so they intervened to replace Biden. 270 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: All of this, of course in the name of democracy. 271 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 3: But there are two factors there. The two factors to 272 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 3: that phenomena, which I agree with. The first factor is 273 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 3: the Republican Party has now completed a political transformation where 274 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 3: it's a party of Trump. So for we Democrats for 275 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 3: twenty five years, every four years, a convince to try 276 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 3: to figure out what we gonna do abou Jimmy Carter. 277 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 3: I mean, we don't want them to show up. We 278 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 3: can't not invite them, So you know, how do we 279 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 3: deal with Jimmy Carter. We've got all these pre Trump 280 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 3: generation of Republican politicians. Nobody wants them there, and they 281 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 3: don't want to be there. That's one factor what you said. 282 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 3: But the other factor is that this Party of Trump 283 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 3: right now is really I don't want to sound too partisan. 284 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 4: I would have used the term cult, but that's probably 285 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 4: a little too edgy. 286 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 2: Doug. 287 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 1: On this podcast, you can use any word you want. 288 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 3: The politics of personality is driving right now. The Republican 289 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 3: Party is a party of transformation, is now the party 290 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 3: of Trump. I do think the personality of Trump is 291 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 3: taking over a lot of the oxygen of the party. 292 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 2: You got to give credit to Newt, because Newt, you know, 293 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 2: transformed the country. I was lucky because Bill McCollum and 294 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 2: Haley Barber paid for a survey in September ninety four 295 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 2: that I got to deliver it to the Republican House 296 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 2: leadership and it was in the bowels of the Capitol 297 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 2: with the Minority Party and Bob Michael's there. I'm delivering 298 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 2: the poll and I said, it's September of ninety four, 299 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 2: and I've got a poll where the generic vote has 300 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 2: the Republicans up seven for Congress. And I've never seen 301 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 2: that before in all the years. And I wasn't that 302 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 2: long a polster, but I worked for Finkelstein before I 303 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 2: went on my own. I've never seen that before, and 304 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 2: I'm like going to win the majority. But Newts won 305 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 2: that majority, and still he was part of that and 306 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 2: now he's still at the convention. When I got there, 307 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,679 Speaker 2: I said, do you know the differences the country Club's 308 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 2: not running the party anymore. The caddies are and it's 309 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 2: the Republican Party with Trump transforming it. Here's this blue 310 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 2: collar billionaire who is not from politics, who doesn't play 311 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 2: by the rules, and he really doesn't believe in the 312 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 2: polls as much as his gout. Sometimes his guts wrong, 313 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 2: but a lot of times it's right. His ability to 314 00:17:55,080 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 2: identify with working class voters, who did Democrats know they 315 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 2: may or may not come into the process. Just before 316 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 2: I got on the call, I'm looking at an economist. 317 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,439 Speaker 2: Poll comes out. Okay, they got Harris up three. Go 318 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 2: to the demographics and they have Republicans at twenty eight 319 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: percent of their sample and the Democrats at thirty eight. 320 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 2: I'm like the list exit polls were twenty twenty, thirty seven, 321 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 2: thirty six, twenty sixteen, thirty six, thirty three. We have 322 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 2: been under thirty percent of the electorate going back to 323 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 2: the twentieth century when you would have swings of conservative 324 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 2: Democrats into the Republican Party. But that's a bygone here. 325 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 2: That's the Reagan here. 326 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 4: John two. Thanks. 327 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 3: First of all, the undersampling by pollsters of white working 328 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 3: class voters has been a problem since Donald Trump first 329 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,479 Speaker 3: ran and that's why there's always a surprise on election 330 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 3: day based on the polling because of the undersampling of 331 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 3: actual turnout. The other couple of things I'll say, I 332 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 3: do agree that Trump has a unique appeal to blue 333 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 3: collar workers. I would hardly call him a blue collar 334 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 3: background candidate. And the last thing I'll say, now, you 335 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 3: probably take this as a compliment, actually, although when I 336 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 3: normally have a speech and say what I'm getting to say, 337 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,199 Speaker 3: it is not intended as a compliment. But we have 338 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 3: essentially began at the late nineteen eighties the weaponization of 339 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 3: American politics, and that's what changed. That's what's changed our politics. 340 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,719 Speaker 3: It's the weaponization of everything in politics. And the two 341 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 3: events that I hold most responsible for that was one 342 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 3: that was the Democrats handling of the Boar Hearing, in 343 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 3: which they set a new standard in which there's no 344 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,239 Speaker 3: such thing as anything sacri saying in terms of our 345 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 3: ability to politicize everything. And the other new was you're 346 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 3: taking over the House Republicans and winning the Congress, and 347 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 3: so I considered it a bipartisan group effort, and I 348 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 3: always frame you as one of the godfathers of that. 349 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 3: But not in a partisan way, but as just a 350 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 3: way our country in politics changed. 351 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,919 Speaker 1: I cheerfully plead guilty. If you're a minority party and 352 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: you've been in the wilderness for forty years, you had 353 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 1: better figure out how to be tough enough to draw 354 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: a line that will get you elected. I wrote a 355 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: whole book on this called March the Majority. If you're 356 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 1: the majority party, you want to blur the differences and 357 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: then you get to remain the majority party. If you're 358 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: an effective minority party, you want to maximize the differences, 359 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 1: and that way you might actually emerge. So Doug, I 360 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: think your analysis is right, and I do think Bork 361 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 1: and then Clarence Thomas, and from the narrow standpoint of 362 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,960 Speaker 1: the House, stealing a Indiana nine in nineteen eighty four 363 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: was a seminal event which suddenly we said, if the 364 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,719 Speaker 1: Democrats will do that, then there are no holds barred. 365 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,479 Speaker 1: I'm fascinated in the cross Times. And let's tell you too, 366 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 1: to comment, Black males have stuck with Trump to a 367 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: much greater extent than you would have expected given the 368 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: nomination of a black nominee. But she clearly has solidified 369 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: black women. But my sense is she has not in 370 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: fact solidified black males. Do either of you have a 371 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: comment on that phenomenon. 372 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 2: Well, I've seen by the way I've seen recent Pauli 373 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 2: over the weekend where in some states she hasn't quite 374 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 2: solidified the black women yet because they're still going to 375 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 2: the store paying high prices on inflation. There's still problems, 376 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 2: real problems that real people are facing that she doesn't 377 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 2: have the answer to. And what's interesting is she's part 378 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 2: of the elites. Symbolically, yes, she happens to be an 379 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,160 Speaker 2: African American woman, but she's part of the elites and 380 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 2: black men it's even worse for them. And Biden during 381 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 2: his four years it was going to point a black 382 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 2: woman as vice president, I'm going to point a black 383 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 2: woman to the Supreme Court. I'm going to black men. 384 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 2: I don't know. They were just getting less attention and 385 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 2: less connection and they're dealing with real problems. And for 386 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 2: the years, and Doug's been part of these wars with 387 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 2: the governor's racist Georgia Allen. When he got elected governor 388 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 2: in ninety three, we got over twenty percent of the 389 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 2: black vote and Jim Gilmore, but it was on real 390 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 2: things about it, like we were ending parole and we 391 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 2: were fighting crime and no car attacks. Nathan Deal when 392 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 2: he got re elected governor in twenty fourteen in Georgia, 393 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,239 Speaker 2: we had done the drug courts and the version of 394 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 2: the first Step back first before Trump ever did it. 395 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 2: And we went after or tried to appeal to African 396 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 2: American voters. And there was a profile. There was a 397 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 2: middle class black voter who felt the same alienation that 398 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 2: white voters feel, and they had more in common in 399 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 2: terms of yeah, sure, they're members of law enforcement, they're 400 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,199 Speaker 2: members of their veterans, they want their kids to go 401 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 2: to a charter school. They had a demographic that you 402 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 2: could say didn a vote with Republicans, and you know 403 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 2: Nathan and Deal and then Casey Cagle and Georgia, we 404 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 2: got over twenty percent of the black vote. And Trump 405 00:22:55,440 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 2: has been connecting with African American voters who they know 406 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 2: that their real wealth has gone down, their situations not 407 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 2: been as good, and you've got a country where yeah, 408 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 2: I less national poll seventy five percent sets on the 409 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 2: wrong track, sixty two percent say the economy's getting worse, 410 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 2: fifty percent they can't afford basic necessities even though they're 411 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 2: icing the parties based on race and age and all 412 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:29,199 Speaker 2: these other demographics. Education, there's common problems that if the 413 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 2: Trump campaign and the Republicans talk about the issues and 414 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,679 Speaker 2: talk about the solutions, we have a real opportunity to 415 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 2: beat Kamala Harris. Like I agree with Doug, let's wait 416 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 2: till aft the Labor Day, Let's wait till the debate. 417 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 2: You know, they're trying to run a character race that's 418 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 2: more about style and vibes and run away from kind 419 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 2: of the current issues. They had Joe Biden at the 420 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 2: convention speak after eleven thirty. It's amazing the way that 421 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 2: they're trying to like, she's not the vice president, she's not. 422 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 5: Responsible for any of these things. She hasn't been his 423 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 5: partner for three and a half years. It's like she's 424 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 5: sitting there at the convention. You watch her on TV 425 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 5: and you're like, it's unbelievable. She didn't win a single primary, 426 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 5: didn't win a caucus, and poor Joe see you by, 427 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 5: and he's not coming back to the convention and the 428 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 5: three and a half years in the past or his 429 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:18,400 Speaker 5: problem and not hers. 430 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 4: I do agree with John's point. 431 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 3: I think what's been under reported is the fact that 432 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 3: since twenty twelve, after Obama was no longer on the ballot, 433 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 3: the support for Democrats with blacks has gone down, and 434 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 3: in fact, in twenty twenty, Biden ran behind Clinton the blacks. 435 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 4: So there are two issues in. 436 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 3: Terms of the black vote, and I do think it's 437 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 3: really largely confined to males and younger males in particular, 438 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 3: and probably non college younger males. The two issues for 439 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 3: Democrats one is if they're going to vote for Harris, 440 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,399 Speaker 3: are they actually going to turn out and vote? And 441 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 3: if you look at the twenty twenty results, turn out 442 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 3: even in Atlanta and Fillladelphia, Detroit, these big cities, the 443 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 3: turnout was down. But secondly, Trump is running better with 444 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,919 Speaker 3: these voters now than he was in twenty twenty. Now 445 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 3: we're probably running as well with these voters now as 446 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 3: he was two months ago when Biden was on the ticket, 447 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 3: but he still is outperforming how he did with these 448 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 3: voters in twenty twenty. 449 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 1: I get the sense, with all of the news media effort, 450 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,679 Speaker 1: yeah and all of the fluff, this is still a 451 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: real race. Back in June, we couldn't have predicted all 452 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: the different things that have happened since then. The truth 453 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 1: is from now to election day, a lot of things 454 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 1: could happen, and that it has not refrozen in a 455 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 1: definable pattern at this stage. 456 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,120 Speaker 2: Is that a fair You have a friend Brent Bozella 457 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 2: runs the Media Research Center. Brent just put out a 458 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 2: study where they covered the mainstream media networks and the 459 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 2: cable networks from July twenty one to August seventeenth that 460 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 2: eighty four percent of the coverage for Harris has been positive. 461 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 2: So it goes to Doug's point about her winning the 462 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 2: news cycle like every day, every hour, eighty nine percent 463 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,920 Speaker 2: of the Trump coverage has been negative. And Brent did 464 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 2: a poll with US a week ago where he had 465 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 2: twelve hundred registered Democrats and independent Biden voters. Independence of 466 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 2: voted for Biden eight hundred Democrats, and he asked him, 467 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 2: are you aware not aware that Harris supported cutting funding 468 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 2: to the police seventy one percent not aware? Aware that 469 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,400 Speaker 2: she never visited a conflict zone on the border as 470 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 2: the boarders are seventy two percent not aware. She doesn't 471 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,719 Speaker 2: consider it a crime to enter the US illegally seventy 472 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 2: four percent not aware. Most Liberal center in twenty nineteen 473 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 2: in the US Senate seventy five percent not aware. To 474 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 2: support elimination of private health insurance eighty one percent not aware. 475 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 2: So the real campaign hasn't really started. Through the Democratic Convention, 476 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 2: we got this extended honeymoon. She made one press availability 477 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 2: where she said she wanted to have an arms of 478 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 2: bargo on Israel, and then they reeled that back in. 479 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,400 Speaker 2: And then she did do the speech last week where 480 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 2: she talked about price controls. So I think the real 481 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 2: issue part of the campaign's beginning. And then I looked 482 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 2: at the convention last night and what happened with Trump 483 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 2: with the black journalists. They really want to try to 484 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 2: bate Trump into blowing up. They want to say, just 485 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,239 Speaker 2: like Joe Biden in the debate, Joe Biden called him 486 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 2: a racist, mentioned the porn star, called him a convicted felon, 487 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 2: and Biden's speech, to the extent it was late at night, 488 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 2: was the same kind of untruce attacks on Trump. And 489 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 2: the one debate Harris has agreed to, I'm sure he's 490 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 2: going to try to get him to say something that 491 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:06,199 Speaker 2: she can betray as racist and something that's misogynistic. So 492 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 2: on the intellectual level, we've got these two coalitions. We've 493 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 2: got all these issues, but on a stylistic personality level, 494 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 2: the Democrats, they play hardball. 495 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 4: John and I are in the business, are trying to 496 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:20,280 Speaker 4: win elections. 497 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 3: We're not working for the Columbia Journalism Review that we're 498 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,240 Speaker 3: not working for the Institute for the Free Press of 499 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 3: America and the Democrat delighted how much press Trump does. 500 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 3: I wish he would do a press conference every day, 501 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,399 Speaker 3: And I think I would say two things about the press. 502 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 3: One is the mainstream press. And I said this on 503 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 3: a podcast the other day, and I came to Darling 504 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 3: of the right wing media, the mainstream press as a 505 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 3: bias for Democrats, and they hate Trump, but the main 506 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 3: stream press, what's more important to them than that is 507 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 3: covering a story and feeling like they're treated right. And 508 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 3: generally the candidate who has the mainstream press on their wins, 509 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 3: and it's not always the Democrat. I would say in 510 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 3: two thousand and four, the press at the anti carry 511 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 3: was a big phony, and when they didn't like Bush 512 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 3: and agree with him, I think they thought it was 513 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 3: at least the real thing. I think in twenty sixteen, 514 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 3: the mainstream press they bought in the Trump narrative about 515 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,640 Speaker 3: Crooked Hillary and all the rest of it. And I 516 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 3: think they turned on Biden. They turned on Biden when 517 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 3: they thought that they had been misled and mistreated about 518 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 3: his actual health. So it's not an automatic that they're 519 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 3: going to support and be in the tank for Democrats. 520 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 4: But they clearly are. 521 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,959 Speaker 3: Beside themselves with joy that Harris is running against Trump. 522 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 1: I used to have a ground rule. If you're a 523 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 1: House Republican back in the seventies, eighties and early nineties, 524 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: you didn't get any coverage. I mean, you didn't exist 525 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 1: in terms of national media. Well. One of the theories that 526 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 1: I developed was the press is like a great white 527 00:29:56,480 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 1: shark that if something bleeds, they will eat it. They 528 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,040 Speaker 1: may feel bad eating it if it's a liberal Democrat, 529 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 1: but they can't help themselves. When we went after Jim 530 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 1: Wright for ethics problems and he ultimately had to resign 531 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 1: as speaker, I knew the once they caught the scent, 532 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 1: even though they would much prefer right over me that descent, 533 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 1: that there was something there, they would just start chewing 534 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: and they couldn't back off. 535 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 4: Two things about that and Day. 536 00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 3: First of all, what you did do long before you 537 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 3: took over the House in ninety four. What you did really, 538 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 3: for the first time since the early nineteen fifties, you 539 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 3: made the House Republican minority relevant. And you can't be 540 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 3: part of the conversation if you're not part of the conversation. So, 541 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 3: whether it's Jim Wright's books or whatever it is, you 542 00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 3: forced your way into the conversation. The second thing, going 543 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 3: back to your question about the race and where we stand, 544 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 3: so I think Harris is ahead. I think she's ahead 545 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 3: right now, close to outside the margin of error and 546 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 3: the majority of the battleground states and nationally, my guess 547 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 3: is at the beginning of next week she'll be in 548 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 3: a stronger position than. 549 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 4: She is today. 550 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 3: However, I think by you know, the period probably around 551 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 3: Labor Day or slightly thereafter, prior to the September tenth debate, 552 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 3: my guess is that the race is going to settle 553 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 3: back down to a more practical number where I think 554 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 3: she'll be ahead. But it's all kind of within the margins. 555 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 3: And I think there are two very conflicting forces here 556 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 3: about the race. One I've mentioned several times I'll mention again, 557 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 3: which is the advantage that Republicans have and how we 558 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 3: elect presidents of the electoral college. It is an enormous advantage. 559 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 3: Electoral college is six votes more favorable to Trump now 560 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 3: after the last reapportionment and redistricting based on census than 561 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 3: it was in twenty twenty. The electoral college map really 562 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 3: favors Republicans. And the second thing, which I think is 563 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 3: the most significant thing that I'm looking at in Poland, 564 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,840 Speaker 3: I kind of glance at these polls right now, but 565 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 3: I do feel like it's sort of not really that 566 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 3: important because as I said earlier, this is kind of 567 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,480 Speaker 3: not for real, which you can't ignore them. But what 568 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 3: I've seen consistently, which I think is the biggest problem 569 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,000 Speaker 3: for Trump, is that the majority of our country has 570 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 3: never supported Donald Trump. The majority of the country never 571 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 3: one day as president did he have a fifty percent 572 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 3: job approval. 573 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 4: He never got forty seven. 574 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 3: Percent of the popular vote in twenty sixteen or twenty twenty. 575 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 3: Of all the battleground states. The only battleground state that 576 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 3: he ever got fifty percent of the vote in was 577 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 3: Georgia in twenty sixteen. So the fact of the matter 578 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 3: is the more's a two person race, the worst forty 579 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 3: six point whatever percent of the vote looks and you 580 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 3: see in the cratering of the third party. 581 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 4: If you look at d CNNA New. 582 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 3: York Times polls that came out in the three battle 583 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 3: Donald straits, all three said Paris is up by four. 584 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 3: But to me, what was most relevant of that was 585 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 3: all three polls he was at forty six percent of 586 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 3: the vote. And I think that's going to be the 587 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,719 Speaker 3: biggest challenge John you have in your campaign, particularly if 588 00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 3: you're seeing this cratering of third parties, is how do 589 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 3: you deal with a two person race to get a 590 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,959 Speaker 3: majority of people in this country to support someone who 591 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 3: they never in seven years have done. 592 00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:24,600 Speaker 2: When Republicans win, it's not because Republicans are great. It's 593 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:30,200 Speaker 2: most often because the voters reject the Democrats and having 594 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 2: grown up in New York and make a career winning 595 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,720 Speaker 2: in New York, I got all the scars. But the 596 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 2: only time you Republicans win is when you get enough 597 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:44,040 Speaker 2: Democrats and independence to reject the Democrat failure. Because even 598 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 2: when you go back to the eighties, when it was 599 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 2: a two majority system, you had a Democrat partisan majority, 600 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,880 Speaker 2: you had a conservative ideological majority. Now let's come closer, 601 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 2: But last night the speeches were about rhetorica and not 602 00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:00,760 Speaker 2: about you know, real results. But that's a challenge for 603 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 2: Trump and your point about the polls you're sighting. I've 604 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,760 Speaker 2: been through this before twice, in twenty sixteen and twenty fourteen. 605 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,400 Speaker 2: The week before election day in twenty six there was 606 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,800 Speaker 2: tellahannity we could win because I had actual polls modeled 607 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 2: on real turnout models, and we knew we were going 608 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 2: to try to bring out some of these casual voters. 609 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 2: It's going to be very close, and the same thing 610 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,479 Speaker 2: on election day, but you had five thirty eight saying 611 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 2: seventy one percent they were going to lose, et cetera. 612 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 2: And in twenty twenty it was the same thing. I 613 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:29,920 Speaker 2: was saying it was going to be close, and we 614 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 2: lost by forty four thousand votes out of the one 615 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 2: hundred and sixty million in three states. Basically, But you 616 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:39,880 Speaker 2: look at the polls that you're citing, wisconstantly senior and 617 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 2: exit Paul had thirty seven percent Republican. The New York 618 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,319 Speaker 2: Times poll this week had twenty seven percent Republican. It's 619 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,760 Speaker 2: ten point difference. In Michigan, it was the nine point difference. 620 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:54,680 Speaker 2: Were the underpolled Republicans. Your turnouts. They're discounying Republican and 621 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:58,000 Speaker 2: Trump voters again the July fourth weekend. I looked at 622 00:34:58,000 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 2: their polls when they were putting it out after the 623 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 2: by debate. I'm like, these polls are too good. I 624 00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 2: do it have an NBA and statistics, and you're looking 625 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 2: at the models and you're saying, it doesn't look like 626 00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,360 Speaker 2: an actual turnout database. It doesn't look like past the histories. 627 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:12,920 Speaker 4: Let me say two things to that. 628 00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 3: First of all, forget the polls. Just look at the 629 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 3: voting in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Look at the 630 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 3: voting in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, and look at 631 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 3: the Trump vote nationally and in the battleground states period. 632 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 3: Second thing is, there are only three things I care 633 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,400 Speaker 3: about when I'm running a campaign. I want to define 634 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 3: what the campaign's about. I want to define my candidate, 635 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,839 Speaker 3: and I want to define my opponent. And prior to 636 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:43,280 Speaker 3: Biden's withdrawal, this campaign was a referendum of the Trump 637 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 3: presidency versus the Biden presidency. 638 00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,240 Speaker 4: Trump was strong, Biden was weak. 639 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:50,919 Speaker 3: That's why the Biden guys wanted an early debate, because 640 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,399 Speaker 3: they knew they were a heading into a loss now 641 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,400 Speaker 3: in the new order, you guys are losing the debate 642 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:02,479 Speaker 3: about what this campaign's about, losing it's not over. You're 643 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:06,799 Speaker 3: losing the battle to define Harris, and you're hardening the 644 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 3: silo of reminding people, the majority of people, why they 645 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,840 Speaker 3: voted against Trump in twenty twenty. You had a spectacular 646 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,839 Speaker 3: convention all the way through Thursday night, through the first 647 00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:22,520 Speaker 3: thirty minutes of Trump's speech when he was reading off 648 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:27,400 Speaker 3: the teleprompter, but his last hour of riffing and every 649 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 3: single battle for who won the day. 650 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,360 Speaker 4: Trump is hardening the. 651 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 3: Silo of his negative narrative, and all the money he 652 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,880 Speaker 3: spent making age an issue about Biden is now becoming 653 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 3: a problem for him against a woman who's nineteen years 654 00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:50,239 Speaker 3: younger than him Trump, who's an unbelievable political specimen. He's 655 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 3: not the same guy who was seven years ago. He's 656 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:54,719 Speaker 3: not the same guy who was three and a half 657 00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,799 Speaker 3: years ago. And don't take my word for it. All 658 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 3: you got to do is watch them. 659 00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:02,799 Speaker 2: I'm just going back to the point. It's like, I 660 00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:08,720 Speaker 2: think the real campaign's coming now and ideologically and results oriented, 661 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,359 Speaker 2: and you know, most of the voters that are going 662 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,640 Speaker 2: to decide the race in the middle. They don't look 663 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 2: at terms of ideology, they don't look in terms of 664 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:19,560 Speaker 2: partisan lenses. They're like, is my life going to get better? 665 00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,360 Speaker 2: Are the things that bother me now, whether it's inflation, 666 00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 2: whether it's they're worried about their jobs. Again, the economy 667 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 2: is not really picking up, there's not real growth. Are 668 00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,840 Speaker 2: things going to get better? And that's the challenge for 669 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,759 Speaker 2: President Trump, And that's the challenge to the campaign over 670 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:36,839 Speaker 2: the next ten weeks in effect for the Trump game. 671 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:41,239 Speaker 3: But this is something that Trump understood and understands, and 672 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,800 Speaker 3: Newton understood and understands, which. 673 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,919 Speaker 4: Is the way actions is to connect with people's heart, 674 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:48,719 Speaker 4: not their head. 675 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:52,839 Speaker 3: Now, you can talk about stuff policy wise, but that's 676 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 3: not the game. The game is the emotional connection with 677 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,560 Speaker 3: a voter. And that's what Trump has been spectacular at 678 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:08,319 Speaker 3: until now and now currently he's losing the battle of 679 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 3: the emotional connection of what's going on in this campaign. Harris, 680 00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:15,279 Speaker 3: I've said it elsewhere in my lifetime. There have been 681 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:20,279 Speaker 3: three movement politicians. Reagan Obama in two thousand and eight, 682 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,399 Speaker 3: I don't think he was a movement politician. Twenty twelve, 683 00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:26,600 Speaker 3: it wasn't a eight and Trump and movements are bigger 684 00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 3: than campaigns. And if you get to a movement, no, no 685 00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,040 Speaker 3: one's going to care about the White paper or this 686 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:34,360 Speaker 3: issue and that issue. 687 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:35,920 Speaker 4: And I'm not sitting. 688 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,680 Speaker 3: Here today and telling you that Harris is running a 689 00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,680 Speaker 3: political movement now instead of a campaign. 690 00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:41,720 Speaker 4: What I am. 691 00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:46,000 Speaker 3: Telling you is she's moving towards that, and she may 692 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:50,040 Speaker 3: become that, and if she becomes that, there's no way 693 00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:50,600 Speaker 3: to stop it. 694 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,840 Speaker 1: I think you just to find the two of you 695 00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 1: sort of the core of where we're at. If Trump 696 00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:01,359 Speaker 1: does his job right, then Harris can't poss end up 697 00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:05,319 Speaker 1: being a movement leader. And if Paris does her job right, 698 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,640 Speaker 1: then she probably can't be stopped. And I think that's 699 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,160 Speaker 1: why the next six weeks are going to be fascinating. 700 00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,880 Speaker 1: I really appreciate you too. That's such a great, sophisticated 701 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:19,440 Speaker 1: and knowledgeable conversation. I hope maybe sometime around the end 702 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,760 Speaker 1: of September we can tempt the two of you into 703 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,680 Speaker 1: one more round of this, and then after the election, 704 00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,360 Speaker 1: maybe we'll get one round of g I wish we 705 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,560 Speaker 1: had known that whatever happens, because that's the nature of 706 00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,759 Speaker 1: the business. But I want to thank both of you 707 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:38,560 Speaker 1: this has been really fascinating that you guys are so knowledgeable, 708 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:40,879 Speaker 1: and I do want to let our listeners know. We're 709 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,000 Speaker 1: going to have links to the latest polls on our 710 00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,320 Speaker 1: show page at neutrald dot com. But I thank both 711 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,440 Speaker 1: of you for taking the time to join us. 712 00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,520 Speaker 2: Thank you because I learn a lot listening to yourself 713 00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,319 Speaker 2: and Doug. So the education goes on and we're going 714 00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,560 Speaker 2: to need it over the next ten weeks, that's for sure. 715 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,520 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guests John McLaughlin and Doug Sosnik. 716 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:08,840 Speaker 1: You can learn more about the state of the election 717 00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:13,040 Speaker 1: on our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newsworld is 718 00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:17,760 Speaker 1: produced by Gingish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer 719 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:23,000 Speaker 1: is Guernsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork 720 00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:27,400 Speaker 1: for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks 721 00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,120 Speaker 1: to the team at Gingish three sixty. If you've been 722 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:33,560 Speaker 1: enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and 723 00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,319 Speaker 1: both rate us with five stars and give us a 724 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:40,480 Speaker 1: review so others can learn what it's all about. Right now, 725 00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,280 Speaker 1: listeners of newts World can sign up for my three 726 00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:48,759 Speaker 1: freeweekly columns at ginglestree sixty dot com slash newsletter, I'm 727 00:40:48,840 --> 00:41:01,600 Speaker 1: Nute Gingrich. This is newtsworld.