1 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: On this episode of New World We're going to look 2 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 1: at something very sobering. Every generation a journalist has looked 3 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: deep into the heart of the nuclear military establishment, the technologies, 4 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: the safeguards, the plans, and the risks. These investigations are 5 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: vital to how we understand the world we live in, 6 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 1: where one nuclear missile will get one in return, and 7 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: where the choreography of the world's end requires massive decisions 8 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: made on seconds notice with information that is only as 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: good as the intelligence we have. Pulitzer Prize finalist Anny 10 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: Jacobson's Nuclear War A Scenario explores this ticking clock scenario 11 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: based on dozens of exclusive new interviews with military and 12 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: civilian experts who have built the weapons, have been privy 13 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: to the response plans, and have been responsible for those 14 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: decisions should they have needed to be made. Nuclear War 15 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: Scenario is the handful of minutes after a nuclear missile launch. 16 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: Here to talk about a new book. I am really 17 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: pleased to welcome my guest, Annie Jacobson. She is a 18 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: Pulitzer Prize finalist for The Pentagon's Brain, author of the 19 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:18,680 Speaker 1: New York Times bestsellers Area fifty one and Operation paper Clip. 20 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: She was a contributing editor at the Los Angeles Times magazine. Annie, 21 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: welcome and thank you for joining me on Newts World. 22 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 2: Well, it's a real honor to be here, so thank 23 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 2: you for having me. 24 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: I'll say for a lot of our listeners that the 25 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: subject of your book is bleak, but I think it's 26 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 1: extraordinarily important. We live in a world where there are 27 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: more and more countries with nuclear weapons. There are very 28 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: real threats, and somewhere something could really happen in a 29 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: way that's horrible. You begin your book with a very 30 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: poignant quote from Winston Churchill who said, quote the story 31 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: of the human races war. Except for brief and precarious interludes, 32 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: there has never been peace in the world. And before 33 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: history began, murderous strife was universal and on ending. That 34 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: was Churchill's vision of the world. So, if you don't mind, 35 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,839 Speaker 1: I wanted to really dive right in with chapter three 36 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 1: of your book, the build Up nineteen forty five to 37 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety, Will you talk about the arms race with 38 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: the Civic Union. 39 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 2: Yes, and you know, thank you for that introduction, and 40 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,679 Speaker 2: of course what we're about to discuss here, the initial 41 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 2: build up the arms race with the Soviet Union. It 42 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 2: was a very different world with two nuclear armed superpowers. 43 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: And as you referenced in your intro, now here in 44 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four we have nine nuclear armed nations and 45 00:02:56,000 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 2: threats everywhere and saber rattling. But once upon a time, 46 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 2: back in the fifties, when this arms race began, things 47 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: were at the razor's edge in a different way in 48 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 2: that as I demonstrate in the book, the Original Nuclear 49 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 2: War Plan, the SIOP, was designed for the United States 50 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: to be able to fight and win a nuclear war. 51 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 2: However crazy that may seem to us now, that is 52 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 2: what was at stake, and of course that idea changed 53 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 2: and became deterrence, this idea that we must never fight 54 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 2: a nuclear war because it cannot be won, and so 55 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 2: we have lived with deterrence for all of these decades since. 56 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 2: But I think what we're here to talk about today, 57 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 2: and what I attempted to demonstrate in nuclear war a scenario, 58 00:03:54,920 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 2: is how quickly it all could change were a nuclear 59 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 2: warhead to come toward the United States. 60 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: With places like North Korea and Iran Pakistan putin under 61 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 1: some circumstances, the terrence may not work. And I think 62 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 1: what you did is very important in getting us to 63 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: confront how really serious a problem is. 64 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 2: Well, call me the optimist in the room. I'm going 65 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: to take the position that the reason I wrote the book, 66 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 2: which was to demonstrate in appalling detail just how horrific 67 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 2: nuclear war would be, was so that we never have 68 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 2: a nuclear war. I don't believe that there really is 69 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 2: survival after a nuclear war, and that is certainly a 70 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 2: conclusion that I came to after interviewing people who were 71 00:04:55,600 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: familiar with the plans should a nuclear war happen, including 72 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 2: former FEMA director Craig Fugate, who told me that after 73 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 2: a nuclear war there would be no protection planning because 74 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 2: an actual quote from him, everyone would be dead. So 75 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 2: I'm of the position what I learned, which is terrifying, 76 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 2: is that there's no such thing as a small nuclear war. 77 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 1: Eisenhower said one time that the world after nuclear would 78 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: be so horrifying he wouldn't want to be one of 79 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 1: the survivors. 80 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 2: That's absolutely right, echoed by Khrush Jeff who said the 81 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: survivors would envy the dead, which. 82 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: Is I think part of why Reagan really was trying 83 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: to find a way to get away from nuclear war. 84 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 2: Well, you're absolutely right. And you know, amidst all this 85 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 2: horror that I describe in the book, and for readers 86 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:55,919 Speaker 2: to understand this idea that it all happens so fast, 87 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 2: is so troubling and also hopeful thanks to what I 88 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 2: call the Reagan reversal, because in Reagan it's my understanding, 89 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 2: and perhaps you can correct me, because you might know 90 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 2: better if I'm wrong at any points. Of this is 91 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 2: that when President Reagan saw the fictional ABCTV mini series 92 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 2: or mini movie called The Day After, and that he 93 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 2: had a private screening at Camp David in nineteen eighty three, 94 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 2: that he became, as he wrote in his Presidential Journal, 95 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: greatly depressed. And it was that that caused him to 96 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: reach out to Gorbachev, which then led to the Rekovic Summit, 97 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 2: which led from the reduction in nuclear warheads from seventy 98 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 2: thousand in nineteen eighty six to the twelve thousand, five 99 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 2: hundred that we have today. And so it was that 100 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: Reagan reversal, that idea that the President of the United States, 101 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 2: dates arguably the most powerful person on earth, could be 102 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 2: so impacted by a hypothetical concept of the possible future 103 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 2: that he would actually radically impact the safety and security 104 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:19,679 Speaker 2: of the world moving forward. 105 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: I think it's been helpful for our listeners for you 106 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: to talk about why the reality of a nuclear war 107 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: is so horrifyingly, what are the actual effects that occur. 108 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 2: I describe in the book a one megaton thermonuclear weapon 109 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: striking the Pentagon, and the reason I chose that target 110 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 2: is because it was said to me repeatedly that a 111 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 2: bolt out of the blue attack against Washington, DC is 112 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 2: what everyone in Washington, DC fears most. And I describe 113 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 2: in horrific detail everything from the flash of light turning 114 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 2: humans in the inner ring into combusted carbon, knocking over 115 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 2: all structures, incinerating all forms of life down to a 116 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 2: cellular level. And we're talking about five thousand, seven hundred 117 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 2: square feet in diameter a little over a mile. And 118 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 2: then I describe what happens in the cocentric rings moving 119 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 2: out the bulldozer type blast wave of one hundred mile 120 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 2: an hour winds, knocking over buildings, setting new things on fire. 121 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 2: And then I describe what happens rings out after that, 122 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 2: where you have people asphyxiating, people being impaled by flying objects, 123 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 2: people being sucked up into the nuclear mushroom cloud it's 124 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 2: really remarkable. When you close your eyes, you imagine that 125 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 2: mushroom cloud that many people have seen either in movies 126 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 2: or in the actual footage from the atomic test, in 127 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 2: the stem of the mushroom cloud, in the cap of 128 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 2: the mushroom cloud of a bomb that exploded on a city, 129 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 2: there would be debris of human beings. That is what 130 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 2: that cloud would be made of. And so these details 131 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: and so many others that I convey to the reader 132 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 2: gives you exactly that sense that you referenced earlier that 133 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,320 Speaker 2: you would perhaps rather be one of the lucky ones 134 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 2: who died instantly. 135 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: Well, and in this case, you're describing one hydrogen weapon 136 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: in a world in which there are thousands. 137 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 2: The basic fact that I think is great for readers 138 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 2: to just sink their teeth into the United States has 139 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 2: one thousand, seven hundred and seventy nuclear weapons today on 140 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 2: their forward deployed meaning they're on ready for launch status. 141 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 2: Russia has approximately the same. They have one thousand, six 142 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: hundred and seventy four. Of course, the numbers change a 143 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 2: little bit every year. That gives you an idea, these 144 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 2: are weapons ready to go. And so as you say, 145 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 2: and as I describe in nuclear war scenario, it's not 146 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 2: just one nuclear weapon that gets launched, it's thousands, because 147 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 2: there are thousands in reserve. And then you have a 148 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 2: situation where you have essentially the continental United States on 149 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 2: fire because every one megaton thermonuclear bomb creates a mega 150 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 2: fire that is one hundred two hundred three hundred square 151 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 2: miles burning. Imagine that times one thousand or more. 152 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: You emphasized the US in Russia. I mean, I think 153 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: part of what has made me more concerned and reduced 154 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: my sort of sense of being totally avoidable is when 155 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: you see a regime that is as hard to understand 156 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: as North Korea, which is annually acquiring more and more 157 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,199 Speaker 1: weapons and acquiring delivery systems that could reach the United States. 158 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: I'm not totally sure that they can be deterred. 159 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 2: I am totally sure they cannot be deterred, and that's 160 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 2: based on interviews. You know. I begin my scenario with 161 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 2: the bolt out of the blue attack by North Korea. 162 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 2: Russia gets involved because of technical problems and miscommunications that 163 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 2: were conveyed to me by people like former secretaries of 164 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 2: Defense That can and could likely have happen. But the 165 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 2: reason I chose North Korea, and I think we agree 166 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 2: on the danger that North Korea. The existential danger that 167 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 2: North Korea brings into the mix in this present moment 168 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 2: is because of a series of interviews I did with 169 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 2: Richard Garwin, who I'm sure you're familiar with most listeners, aren't. 170 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 2: Richard Garwin drew the plans to the first thermonuclear bomb 171 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 2: ever exploded. It's on the cover of the book. It 172 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 2: was called Ivy Mike. And so many people think that 173 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 2: Edward Teller was the progenitor of the thermonuclear weapon, which 174 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 2: he was, but theoretically those plans needed to be drawn. 175 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 2: Teller couldn't figure out how to explode the bomb, and 176 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: so he looked to a then twenty three year old 177 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 2: Richard Garwin to solve that puzzle. And it was Garwin 178 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 2: who said to me in our interviews, when I asked 179 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 2: him what he thought the biggest existential threat it was, 180 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 2: he shared a concept that he'd been thinking about called 181 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 2: the mad king logic. And it's this idea that, as 182 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 2: Garwin explained me, that all it takes is one mad 183 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 2: king with a nuclear arsenal. 184 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 1: Which is why you sort of start with North Korea 185 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: just because we don't actually understand them. 186 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 2: That's exactly right, and I wanted to present a puzzle 187 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 2: to the reader. We never know in the book why 188 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 2: North Korea started a nuclear war, why they lobbed one 189 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,839 Speaker 2: nuclear missile and then a second at the United States. 190 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 2: What we do know, and I talk about is what 191 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 2: mad king logic is, as it was explained to me 192 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 2: by Garwin. And the best way he had of summing 193 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:51,199 Speaker 2: it up is the French phrase a prey mois le deluge, 194 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 2: attributed to a number of sort of French crazy kings 195 00:13:56,200 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 2: and leaders. That idea, after me the flood, the idea 196 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 2: that some madman with an arsenal would feel as if 197 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 2: the world didn't matter if he couldn't be in it. 198 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: In that sense, as you watch countries like North Korea 199 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: not just have a hey nuclear weapon, but have a program. 200 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: I think by the end of the decade we estimate 201 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 1: they'll have three hundred nuclear weapons. And you don't know 202 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 1: what they're thinking is there's a pattern with dogs called 203 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: fear biting, where a dog will bite you because it's 204 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: afraid of you. It's a preemptive attack if you will 205 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: and you can imagine in some ways the Omkipper War 206 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy three had a similar experience in that 207 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: the Soviets deliberately misinformed the Egyptians and the Syrians convinced 208 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: them that the Israelis were about to attack, and so 209 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: they decided they had to launch a preemptive attack to 210 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: stop the Israeli attack, which actually wasn't going to occur. 211 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: And so I think you can imagine a circums sense 212 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: where somebody, whether it's the Iranians who have a theological 213 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 1: guarantee that if they swapp Tehran for Tel Aviv, at 214 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: least the people in Tehran will go to heaven, or 215 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: the North Koreans, who we really don't understand very much 216 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: at all, and the South Grans don't understand them either. 217 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: So it's a really complicated problem. But you also have 218 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: this question which i'd be curious to get your reaction to. 219 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: Every once in a while, Putin implies that he would 220 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: at least use tactical nuclear weapons, and they run exercises 221 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 1: to remind us that they have a very large nuclear capability. 222 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 1: In your judgment with the people you talked to when 223 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: you interviewed, do you think it is likely that Putin, 224 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: faced with defeat, would in fact go nuclear. 225 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 2: I purposely do not get into politics in the book, 226 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 2: but I can share with you my discussions on background 227 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 2: this because that was a very important question of like 228 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 2: how would tactical nuclear weapons play a role? For listeners, 229 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 2: Let's just give a quick reminder, A tactical nuclear weapon 230 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 2: is a battlefield weapon, a short range weapon. And what 231 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 2: we are talking about in nuclear warfare and the big 232 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 2: picture of deterrence has to do with what's called strategic 233 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 2: nuclear weapons, really long range ballistic missiles, intercontinental missiles, submarine 234 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: launched missiles. But this idea that Putin is talking about 235 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 2: using a tactical nuclear weapon, I can tell you in 236 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: my conversation with sources, felt extremely threatening to them because 237 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 2: the fundamental premise that I learned in reporting this book 238 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: is that all of the cold warriors close to the president, 239 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 2: close to the nuclear command and control apparatus, conveyed to 240 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 2: me that from war gaming out these situations for decades, 241 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 2: we know, and we know from Reagan's declassified nuclear war 242 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 2: game Proud Profit, that no matter how nuclear war begins, 243 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 2: it ends in nuclear armageddon. And so to answer your question, 244 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 2: how would it work with a tactical nuclear weapon on 245 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 2: the battlefield precisely that way, it's almost impossible to think 246 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 2: that it could not escalate to a position where strategic 247 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 2: nuclear weapons become part of the war. 248 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: So in that sense, you go from attacking an enemy 249 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: military formation to attacking cities or to attacking each other's 250 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: nuclear capability. 251 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 2: Absolutely, you're crossing that red line that has kept us 252 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 2: all alive for seventy nine years. So, in other words, 253 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 2: the fundamental premise of Stratcom's Strategic Command, who is the 254 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,479 Speaker 2: combatant command in the United States that controls the nuclear 255 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 2: weapons that will talk directly to the President in the 256 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 2: event of a nuclear launch order, Strategic Command says all 257 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 2: security is predicated onto deterrence, and the deputy commander of Stratcom, 258 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 2: Lieutenant General Busier, recently said, if deterrence fails, it all unravels. 259 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 2: And so that unraveling is where we wind up in 260 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 2: nuclear armageddon. And that is why I take the reader 261 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 2: from nuclear launch to nuclear winter in seventy two minutes. 262 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 2: If you had a tactical nuclear weapon involved, perhaps there's 263 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 2: a little bit of a longer build up, but once 264 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 2: the war begins, it ends in seventy two minutes. 265 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: And is that because the danger of losing your weapons 266 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 1: as such that you feel almost compelled to go to 267 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: a total launch just to be sure that you have them. 268 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 2: Well, I think it has to do with that image 269 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 2: you just conveyed to me, which I had never heard of, 270 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 2: and I will never be the same sense, which is 271 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 2: fear biting from the dog right, that idea of preemptive 272 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 2: action is so tied into war fighting as a concept, 273 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 2: and that it is tied into deterrence because all of 274 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:51,199 Speaker 2: our triad is built so that if somebody considers a 275 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 2: preemptive nuclear strike, their generals will tell them the enemy 276 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 2: has a first strike capability, a second strike capability, get 277 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 2: the silos, their submarines will come after you. So there's 278 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 2: this inherent idea that you cannot make a preemptive move. 279 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 2: And so in a way, I would perceive the use 280 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 2: of a tactical nuclear weapon as setting off a chain 281 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:24,719 Speaker 2: of possible preemptive nuclear strikes, and then you just have 282 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:25,199 Speaker 2: game on. 283 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: One of the points you make is that if you 284 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 1: think about a spasm war in which there are multiple 285 00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: hydrogen weapons, that the impact on the environment, the impact 286 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: on climate, even countries that were totally outside the threat 287 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: of the war would in fact, be radically impacted by 288 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: the degree to which you would have, first of all, 289 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: a huge amount of material up in the atmosphere, much 290 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: like the asteroid that ended the dinosaurs. In nuclear winter 291 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: in that sense, is a real threat. So if you're 292 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 1: India or your Nigeria and you think, well, at least 293 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 1: I'm not in the direct lane of getting hit, you 294 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: nonetheless could have your civilization deeply shaken by events that 295 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: are overwhelming in the natural. 296 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:44,400 Speaker 2: World, which is exactly why nuclear winter is really something 297 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 2: that everybody should consider, I believe. Interestingly, in nineteen eighty three, 298 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 2: when it was first written about, it was written off 299 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 2: by the Defense Department as Soviet propaganda, and yet in 300 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 2: declassified documents I located, you can see a real fear 301 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 2: from the Defense Department knowing that nuclear winter was real. 302 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 2: It is a real concept. As you said, the three 303 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty billion pounds of soot that would be 304 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 2: lofted into the air from the nuclear megafires burning. After all, 305 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 2: the nuclear blasts would blot out seventy percent of the sun. 306 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 2: And so the new climate models that have looked at 307 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 2: nuclear winter from a very technical, computerized point of view, 308 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 2: with today's modern equipment suggest that all the freshwater bodies 309 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 2: in the mid latitudes we're talking about from Iowa to 310 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 2: Ukraine would be covered in sheets of ice. You're talking 311 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 2: about a temperature drop around the globe from between twenty 312 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 2: seven degrees fahrenheit and forty degrees fahrenheit. Parts of the 313 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 2: world would freeze over and with that the death of agriculture, 314 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 2: and with the death of agriculture comes the death of 315 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 2: an estimated five billion people. And so the takeaway I 316 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,199 Speaker 2: believe from the book is precisely what we learned at 317 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,640 Speaker 2: the Recavic Summit from Reagan and Gorbachev when they issued 318 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:25,200 Speaker 2: that magnificent joint statement which is so impactful nuclear war 319 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,879 Speaker 2: cannot be one and must never be fought. 320 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: I would just point out that if you look on 321 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 1: a minor scale at the impact of the explosion of 322 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 1: Krakataol in the eighteen eighties, it led to three years 323 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: of cooler temperatures worldwide just from one volcano. We do 324 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:50,159 Speaker 1: have practical, real knowledge of some of these impacts, and 325 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 1: we do know that they can have an extraordinary impact 326 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: on agriculture. And frankly, when you had talked about the 327 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: number of dead, you described like five billion. That then 328 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,360 Speaker 1: leads to a whole range of biological problems as disease 329 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:08,159 Speaker 1: occurs and as people are further impacted by just another 330 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 1: wave of horror, which truly would be, for all practical purposes, 331 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: the end of our civilization as we've known it over 332 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: the last three or four thousand years. So, given that, 333 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: I agree generally with your concern, and I think that 334 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 1: it's pretty horrifying. 335 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 2: Therefore we look to President Reagan's powerful reversal of position, 336 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 2: his movement from someone who was considering the SDI program 337 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 2: that perhaps the way to keep America safer was to 338 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:48,920 Speaker 2: build a ballistic missile defense system his idea and being 339 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,239 Speaker 2: in space so that you could sort of stop the 340 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 2: incoming missiles. So I really see President Reagan as someone 341 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 2: who went from looking to modern technology to solve the 342 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 2: problem of nuclear weapons with more weapons systems, to someone 343 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 2: who realized that there is no technological solve because the 344 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 2: more nuclear weapons we have, the more dangerous the threat 345 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 2: of nuclear use becomes. And so his movement toward reduction 346 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 2: I see as a powerful indicator of change. I'm not 347 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 2: being a Pollyanna and saying, you know, get rid of 348 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 2: all nuclear weapons. I'm also not an activist. I'm an 349 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:43,120 Speaker 2: investigative reporter and a storyteller. So I gave you this 350 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:47,439 Speaker 2: story for you to read, for you to think about. 351 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 2: But what I do know is many of the Cold Warriors, 352 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 2: like yourself, while I was interviewing them, said to me 353 00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 2: that their position changed from perhaps being someone who felt 354 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 2: we have this covered and then when the wall went down, saying, wow, 355 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 2: the threat of nuclear weapons is behind us, to being 356 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 2: elder statesmen who can look at the modern world with 357 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,160 Speaker 2: the lens of history, with a wisdom and a knowledge 358 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 2: and realize that the pathway forward is not continuing along 359 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 2: as we have been by all means not letting more 360 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 2: nuclear armed nations join the four, but rather reducing this, 361 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:40,399 Speaker 2: essentially making nuclear weapons taboo. I believe the same way 362 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 2: that biological weapons used to be part of America's arsenal, 363 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 2: and then Nixon began the change out of that, no 364 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:54,439 Speaker 2: one says, now, well, we have a biological arsenal of 365 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 2: bubonic plague weapons, and so if you launch yours at us, 366 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 2: we'll launch ours at you. It has become taboo. And 367 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 2: I think that the movement toward reducing nuclear weapons to 368 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 2: a much smaller number would be a step in the 369 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 2: right direction. 370 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:17,880 Speaker 1: You're clearly very, very smart, and you do amazing research 371 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 1: and the range of people you've interviewed is astonishing. I'm 372 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: going to go out on a limb here for a minute. 373 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 1: I think this is the book which sets up the 374 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 1: threat and the problem, and we need you now to 375 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,919 Speaker 1: go back out and do another round of interviewing and 376 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: start showing us. In a world where you've got North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, Israel, India, Russia, Britain, France, 377 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:49,159 Speaker 1: United States all have nuclear weapons and they're going to spread, 378 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 1: how do you come up with a path which is 379 00:27:56,200 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 1: implementable that somebody like Kim Jong un or Putin, or 380 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 1: even at a more rational level, Jijen Peng decides, you know, 381 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,919 Speaker 1: for the survival of our entire civilization, this is a 382 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: road I need to go on, or for that matter 383 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,200 Speaker 1: of the Eyetolaha may need. I am totally with you 384 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 1: on how dangerous this is. And it's something which I 385 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 1: guess since I was fifteen or sixteen, has been a 386 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 1: part of my life every single day, and I think 387 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 1: that it would be horrifying on a scale that is 388 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,280 Speaker 1: literally indescribable, and a good friend of mine took one 389 00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 1: tiny example of it with electromagnetic pulse, wrote a brilliant 390 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: book called One Second after which I recommend to people, 391 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 1: which is life in a small town in North Carolina 392 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 1: after electromagnetic pulse destroys all the electricity capabilities. And you 393 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 1: read it and you realize that's one version of a 394 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: terrible future. What you described as an instantaneous version of 395 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 1: a terrible future. But as somebody who's worked this issue 396 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 1: now for my entire lifetime, I don't understand how to 397 00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: build a regime where Kim Jong Un and I told 398 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 1: a Hamoni decide that a non nuclear future is better 399 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 1: not putting in a spot today. But I want to 400 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 1: raise the idea. 401 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 2: You want another book. 402 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 1: We need a second book which says nuclear war the solution. 403 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 2: Ah. That book would make me happy, But the question 404 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 2: is can I write it. 405 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 1: It'd be interesting, though, if you went back out to 406 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: a lot of these very smart people who already know 407 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 1: how good you are, and you said to them, all right, 408 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 1: so what's the solution in the real world. The solution 409 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 1: has to fit the reality of Hamas and the reality 410 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 1: of hamone, and the reality of Kim Jong un, and 411 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 1: the reality of putin otherwise, it's not a solution, it's 412 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 1: a fantasy. You would just starting that conversation. You would 413 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: do an enormous service to the people of the entire planet. 414 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 2: You have given me my new assignment. Thank you. 415 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 1: This has been a very interest We're saying fascinating and 416 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 1: terrifying interview, but I want to thank you Annie. You're 417 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: very smart. You do your research at the most sophisticated level. 418 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: This is an incredibly sobering book, and I would encourage 419 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:19,239 Speaker 1: anybody who has any doubt about how important it is 420 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: for us to solve this problem to just read Nuclear 421 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 1: War A Scenario and realize that it's real and that 422 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 1: we have to find a way out of the trap. 423 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me. 424 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest Danny Jacobson. You can get 425 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 1: a link to buy her new book, Nuclear War A 426 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 1: Scenario on our show page at neutworld dot com. Newt 427 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 1: World is produced by Gingrash three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our 428 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 1: executive producer is Guarnsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 429 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. 430 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingrish three sixty. If 431 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 1: you've been enjoying Neutuorld, I hope you'll go to Apple 432 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: Podcast and both rate us with five stars and give 433 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about. 434 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can sign up for my 435 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 1: three freeweekly columns at Gingrishtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. 436 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,560 Speaker 1: I'm Newt Gingrich. This is Neutsworld