WEBVTT - Travel Rebound Hindered by Delta Variant

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. You know, I just said

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<v Speaker 1>to Tim, I'm looking at We've got a bunch of screens,

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<v Speaker 1>TV screens up different networks and just different headlines when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to this delta variant and the spread, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not you've got the vaccine, it's very hard

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<v Speaker 1>to make sense of what is the true story it

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<v Speaker 1>is And I'm afraid, like Dr Adlga told us earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this week from John's Hopkins, that there are there's not

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<v Speaker 1>widespread agreement in the medical community with the way that

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<v Speaker 1>the CDC has done and about face, you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>he was a lot more aggressive about like you don't

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<v Speaker 1>need to wear your masks if you're vaccinated. And yet

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<v Speaker 1>a colleague of his, who I also heard on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>this morning, dr Andy Pekash, talked about I'm wearing my mask.

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<v Speaker 1>That just shows where the experts are right now, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of confusion waiting for the data. Well, we have

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<v Speaker 1>another expert for you, dr Ian las bad Or. He's

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<v Speaker 1>clinical professor of medicine at n y U land On

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<v Speaker 1>Medical Center. He is back with us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from Long Island. Uh. Ian, nice to have you back

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<v Speaker 1>with us. It is kind of a confusing time. We

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<v Speaker 1>all felt so safe and secure having gotten our vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>and now it's we're trying to say, well, wait, I

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<v Speaker 1>have to put my mask on. How do you explain

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<v Speaker 1>it to patients who probably have a million questions for you?

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<v Speaker 1>There are happy for the guys, Thanks for having me

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<v Speaker 1>as usual, Yes, people are. There's definitely a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>turmoil in the air from UH, from patients and and

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<v Speaker 1>just people out there. And part of that it's because

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<v Speaker 1>we are seeing people who have been vaccinated coming down

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<v Speaker 1>with delta. And we do know from Israel, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>that a significant percent of patients who have been vaccinated

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<v Speaker 1>uh twice with the Fiser vaccine have come down with

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<v Speaker 1>the delta infections. So clearly we're seeing that there's this

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<v Speaker 1>breakthrough and that the vaccines also very helpful are not

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<v Speaker 1>And that's really the same story with masks. UM. The

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<v Speaker 1>reason there's a bit of a debate is because there

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<v Speaker 1>are different kinds of masks. There are these surgical masks

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<v Speaker 1>and of course the N nine masks which seal very

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<v Speaker 1>close to the face. But a number of different studies

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<v Speaker 1>do show that masks seem to reduce respiratory droplets. We

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<v Speaker 1>think the way the delta and and all viruses and

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<v Speaker 1>bacteria for that matter, transmit are through respiratory droplets. When

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<v Speaker 1>people call for sneeze or talk hi. There are these

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<v Speaker 1>droplets that aren't caught by some masks, even cloth masks

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<v Speaker 1>UM although the viral particles themselves are very tiny and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, go right through any mask really other than

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<v Speaker 1>an and that's effective. So a lot of these studies

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<v Speaker 1>show masks seems to block about these respiratory droplets. Not

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<v Speaker 1>it does seem to reduce the risk in that range

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<v Speaker 1>of fifty. So they're not perfect, but they're really one

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<v Speaker 1>arm of presntion and treatments strategy. Uh that's really why

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<v Speaker 1>they have been debates. And you know, the virus is accelerating,

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<v Speaker 1>it's really galloping faster than we can vaccinate people. And

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<v Speaker 1>so are you seeing in your hospital? Are you seeing

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<v Speaker 1>at your hospital? No, you know New York we are

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<v Speaker 1>seeing an increase, but really in the Northeast, I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're really very close to her immunity. Uh so, I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're not seeing that same volume. But what I

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<v Speaker 1>am seeing are people who have been vaccinated coming down

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<v Speaker 1>with a delta. A small percent, maybe ten percent, is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of in the range that we're seeing tends to

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<v Speaker 1>be mild up respiratory coughs, sneezing, you know, sore throat um.

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<v Speaker 1>But clearly the vaccines are not They're not. But what

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<v Speaker 1>we do know is they prevent severe illness and they

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<v Speaker 1>prevent death. And the vast majority of people who are

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalized with COVID with the delta variant that CDC has

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<v Speaker 1>said those people are unvaccinated. I do wonder though about

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<v Speaker 1>long COVID dr LUs Vader do we know anything about

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<v Speaker 1>do we have any data about the way that people

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<v Speaker 1>who have been vaccinated do end up getting infected with

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<v Speaker 1>a breakthrough infection, it's perhaps not severe. Do we know

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<v Speaker 1>anything about long COVID and to what extent they could

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<v Speaker 1>suffer from it? Tim Those are all excellent points. So

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<v Speaker 1>one point you know that you made is that the vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>despite some data about um, you know, potential side effects

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<v Speaker 1>a small number of patients, we don't have really long

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<v Speaker 1>term data, but we certainly know that they are really

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most effective tools we have since we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have great anti viral treatment. The vaccines do seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be very helpful in preventing severe disease. The vast

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<v Speaker 1>majority of patients who are hospitalized have not been vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>which is another uh bit of data you know. And

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<v Speaker 1>long COVID is something that we worry about both in

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<v Speaker 1>patients who have had it. It's estimated up to a

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<v Speaker 1>third of people who have had COVID have ongoing symptoms

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<v Speaker 1>chest pain, costs, uh, brain fog, fatigue. So, uh, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a real problem and we don't really know how that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to play out over a longer period of time.

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<v Speaker 1>We also don't have great treatment for long COVID or

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<v Speaker 1>the long blowlers. There's some evidence that people who have

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<v Speaker 1>had or who have long COVID when they're vaccinated, have

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<v Speaker 1>some improvement in their symptoms, which we do see chronic

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<v Speaker 1>infections epstein bar and other infections that really are chronic

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<v Speaker 1>after the patient gets over the you illness, that maybe

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing with long COVID. Charlie Pellet is sharing

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<v Speaker 1>with me a story from our own Matthew Boyle here

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<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg Walmart, the largest private employer in the USA,

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<v Speaker 1>is requiring its headquarters in regional staff to be vaccinated

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<v Speaker 1>by October four, joining Google and instituting a policy that

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<v Speaker 1>other big companies may seon follow as the delta variant

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<v Speaker 1>continues to spread. This has been something we've been hearing

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<v Speaker 1>debated about whether or not private employers should be forcing

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<v Speaker 1>or or requiring their's teams and employees to get the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you don't, you don't have a job. And

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<v Speaker 1>we're increasingly tim saying more that happening. We're seeing it

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<v Speaker 1>not just in the private sector, but we're also seen

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<v Speaker 1>in the public sector as well, with President Biden making

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<v Speaker 1>rules such as those, and then also here in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City with Mayri Di Blasio. Let's get right back

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<v Speaker 1>to Dr Ian LUs Better, clinical Professor of Medicine at

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<v Speaker 1>n y U Langes Medical Center. He joins us each

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<v Speaker 1>and every Friday. Today he's on the phone from Long Island.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr LUs Better, you probably heard Carol and I talking

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<v Speaker 1>about this medication the FDA certified in is called I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna let you thank you. We're not we're not doctors. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>This is this is a medicine though that's right now

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<v Speaker 1>controversial because the FDA has put out a special warning

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<v Speaker 1>that you shouldn't use it to prevent or treat COVID nineteen.

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<v Speaker 1>Bring us all up to speed on what's happening from

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<v Speaker 1>the treatment front with this. So there was a recent

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<v Speaker 1>article op ed in the Wall Street Journal UH calling

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<v Speaker 1>attention to ivermicton, which has been around UH for a

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<v Speaker 1>number of years as an anti parasitic drug, certainly used

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<v Speaker 1>in veterinary medicine as well, and it really highlights the

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<v Speaker 1>need for us to hopefully do more than just vaccinate people,

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<v Speaker 1>but have hopefully treatment options. UM. There are a number

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<v Speaker 1>of physicians, critical care physicians that are very enthused about

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<v Speaker 1>this medication and it may have potential. What we're really

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<v Speaker 1>lacking are large studies that are unfortunately usually funded by

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<v Speaker 1>drug companies who stand to make a lot of money

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<v Speaker 1>from these things. And so we have a number of

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<v Speaker 1>smaller studies from around the world. They've been put together

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<v Speaker 1>in a meta analysis, and there's some encouraging data on it.

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<v Speaker 1>What we really need are controlled, randomized, double blind, controlled

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<v Speaker 1>studies so that if this medication or other medications that

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<v Speaker 1>may work in a similar way, Uh, we really need

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<v Speaker 1>data that would convince people and physicians to use it.

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<v Speaker 1>At this point, it's certainly if it is being used,

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<v Speaker 1>it's being used off label. UM. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>highlights that there may be other treatments out there that

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<v Speaker 1>we do need to pursue. Uh. We do need more

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<v Speaker 1>studies on this drug and it may turn out to

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<v Speaker 1>be very effective. It is used in other countries, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and with some encouraging data. But that's that's really all

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<v Speaker 1>I would say on that, and that's something we need

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<v Speaker 1>to be aware of. It also highlights to me that

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<v Speaker 1>we really need a coherent strategy we need when you

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<v Speaker 1>go to other countries, you have to show a vaccination

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<v Speaker 1>record or antibody tighters. You know, we need to have

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<v Speaker 1>a little better control of our borders so that immigrants,

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<v Speaker 1>legal illegal Southern border or travelers to our country have

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<v Speaker 1>some documentation of vaccination or antibodies, or vaccinate them before

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<v Speaker 1>they come in. We need to have our vaccines approved

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<v Speaker 1>by the FDA. They're still under emergency use, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure there's some hesitancy that people have because they're not

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<v Speaker 1>FDA approved. The FDA needs to step on that. I've

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<v Speaker 1>actually heard people say that it's emergency use authorization. When

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<v Speaker 1>I get full approval, I'll get the vaccine exactly exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we need to make masks available. And if

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<v Speaker 1>we really think masks are helpful, and we get just

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<v Speaker 1>one over the statistics that they can be helpful, let's

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<v Speaker 1>give people the ninet, you know, better quality masks if

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<v Speaker 1>we're in areas perhaps that have higher outbreaks. And we

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<v Speaker 1>also need better treatments, not just monoclonal antibodies which are

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<v Speaker 1>limited in number, for drugs like hypermectin, which may or

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<v Speaker 1>may not be effective. We need to look into that

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<v Speaker 1>quick question. I think part of the problem with this

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<v Speaker 1>whole process, to be fair, is that we hear one thing,

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<v Speaker 1>and then maybe a day later, or a week later,

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<v Speaker 1>or two weeks later, we hear something that contradicts it.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think the news that came out that I

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<v Speaker 1>think the CDC publishing and I think they put the

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<v Speaker 1>data or are putting the data out today that the

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<v Speaker 1>concerns are that the delta variant appears to spread as

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<v Speaker 1>easily as chicken pox and cause more severe infection. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the narrative around it has been that it's not

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<v Speaker 1>more severe. So is this a reminder that there's still

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<v Speaker 1>things we don't know? Dr les Vader and so that's

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<v Speaker 1>maybe explained some of the nervousness that's out there and

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<v Speaker 1>just got about thirty seconds. Yeah, Look, there's no question

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<v Speaker 1>this is evolving. The virus is evolving. The good news

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<v Speaker 1>is that the majority of older Americans are vaccinated. That

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<v Speaker 1>should provide a lot of protection. We're talking of people

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<v Speaker 1>over sixty have been vaccinated. It's all good news, um.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that the Delta virus certainly is far

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<v Speaker 1>more infectious, but we are not seeing that it's more deadly.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not killing more people. The vast majority of people

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<v Speaker 1>and young people who get this really have a bad cold.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think we need to sort of calm down

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<v Speaker 1>about everything, and I think we will come out in

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<v Speaker 1>the end very well, but there's still more we could

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<v Speaker 1>really do to to get a handle on this, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's disappointing that we're not being more aggressive in all

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<v Speaker 1>of these areas. Dr ian A. LUs Better, Clinical professor

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<v Speaker 1>of Medicine at n y U Langes Medical Center. He

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from Violand each and every Friday.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr LUs Better, thank you. This is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Well, the new issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine.

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<v Speaker 1>It is out. It's online at Bloomberg dot com. Slash

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<v Speaker 1>business Week also on the Bloomberg terminal to cover Move

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<v Speaker 1>Fast and Obey the Party China's tech crack crackdown in

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<v Speaker 1>the making of a new model. Let's get into the

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<v Speaker 1>issue at Bloomberg Business Week at at Ordell Webber on

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<v Speaker 1>the Access line in Brooklyn. What a great cover story,

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<v Speaker 1>so timely, there was more news, you know, to titel

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<v Speaker 1>about China increasingly the oversight of some of its companies. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and I said it um when we spoke about it

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<v Speaker 1>earlier in the week, But I think increasingly this is

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<v Speaker 1>like one of the most important business stories of the year,

0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:20.240
<v Speaker 1>and we still don't really have a sense of like

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<v Speaker 1>where where the football, where the goal post is going

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<v Speaker 1>to end? Uth on this right and I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>the question on investor's mind, is that we've seen basically

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<v Speaker 1>the upending of the old model and the symblance of

0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:36.080
<v Speaker 1>a new one, but we still don't quite know what

0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:38.840
<v Speaker 1>that's gonna totally look like yet. But there is no

0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:43.240
<v Speaker 1>doubt about it that China wants a different version of

0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:47.080
<v Speaker 1>of of of capitalism basically, you know, obviously this is

0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:49.480
<v Speaker 1>that's a fraught word when we're talking about a communist

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.400
<v Speaker 1>country here, but like forever, they have been willing to

0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:54.800
<v Speaker 1>let the West kind of, you know, kind of run

0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:57.000
<v Speaker 1>the show. And now it seems like there's gonna be

0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:00.320
<v Speaker 1>a perimeter that the Chinese government isn't gonna let their

0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:04.800
<v Speaker 1>own their own businesses exceed Joel. As Carol mentioned, this

0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.880
<v Speaker 1>is probably the timeliest story you could have on the

0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 1>cover right now, and I'm you read through it and

0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:12.079
<v Speaker 1>you realize though that it it took a lot more

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.079
<v Speaker 1>than just a few days to actually for the for

0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:18.200
<v Speaker 1>this to come together. Talk about the timing of this,

0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:20.600
<v Speaker 1>how you decided on this to be the cover story,

0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:22.440
<v Speaker 1>and and and kind of like how long you guys

0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:24.600
<v Speaker 1>were thinking about a story like this, given that it

0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 1>seems like this is the perfect story for the week. Well,

0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:30.119
<v Speaker 1>look like this theme has been one that's been percolating

0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.880
<v Speaker 1>for a while. And I mean it all originated back

0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:36.079
<v Speaker 1>um last year actually with with Jack mor and his

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:40.960
<v Speaker 1>comments basically as um as uh as there was about

0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 1>to be an I P O right, and like as

0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 1>that aunt group I PO happened and then um Chinese

0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:52.640
<v Speaker 1>regulators basically intervened and and you know ended up um scuttling,

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.840
<v Speaker 1>and we at that moment we knew that something big

0:13:55.880 --> 0:14:00.280
<v Speaker 1>had happened. And this effectively are or were still in

0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 1>the reverberations of that end because of the d d

0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:09.400
<v Speaker 1>Um story and then the education story, like all of

0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 1>these things have been thematically linked. So when the Jack

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.800
<v Speaker 1>mothing happened, we obviously jumped all over it as a

0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:18.120
<v Speaker 1>news organization because that was really significant. But then we

0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:20.600
<v Speaker 1>kept thinking about it and talking about it internally, and

0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:22.600
<v Speaker 1>so this was one of those ones that you know,

0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.120
<v Speaker 1>we've been working on it for for weeks really, and

0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.000
<v Speaker 1>and then you kind of just get lucky every once

0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>in a while where you're reality catches up to you,

0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:34.120
<v Speaker 1>to your curiosity really and we were able to basically,

0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:38.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, do do some modest updates right at the

0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 1>finish line. So we we were because we work with

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 1>great colleagues around the world, we were really able to

0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:45.640
<v Speaker 1>think ahead on this one. All right, there's something in

0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:49.160
<v Speaker 1>Pursuits which is alcohol infused ice cream, which I feel like,

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.560
<v Speaker 1>after you read the story about the Amazon rainforest, you

0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.600
<v Speaker 1>need to go and have an ice cream cocktail because

0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 1>it is really sobering. Yeah, although that's not gonna that's

0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:00.400
<v Speaker 1>not gonna solve the Amazon problem, but it at least

0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 1>maybe take your mind off of it for a little while. Um, yeah,

0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:05.920
<v Speaker 1>it's a fun one. We you know, the art team

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.160
<v Speaker 1>does great art and they showed me this photo a

0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:11.320
<v Speaker 1>couple uh weeks ago, and I said, you know, that

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.600
<v Speaker 1>is just the most glorious photo that I could imagine

0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:15.440
<v Speaker 1>for summer. Let's just make sure that we give it

0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:17.320
<v Speaker 1>as much real estate as we can give it. So

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:19.400
<v Speaker 1>we kind of held it for a second and ends

0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.520
<v Speaker 1>up being like the most perfect summer weekend to be

0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:25.040
<v Speaker 1>thinking about booze infused ice cream and sort of some

0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:26.880
<v Speaker 1>of the creations that you can go with it. And

0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:28.760
<v Speaker 1>what I loved was like here in New York, you

0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.400
<v Speaker 1>couldn't have done this, um that long ago. This is

0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.840
<v Speaker 1>a new phenomenon that is just now gained the good graces,

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.800
<v Speaker 1>provided that you're of legal consumption age, of course. Exactly.

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:39.920
<v Speaker 1>All right, So talk about the Amazon rainforce story though,

0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:43.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean that is it's heavy and you know, we

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 1>we we talked about it a little bit yesterday. To

0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.280
<v Speaker 1>me is um, it was just a slap across the

0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 1>face because you know, I think inherently that the four

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.760
<v Speaker 1>stations happening, that's that's a bad thing. It's a bad

0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:59.280
<v Speaker 1>with the capital b um what you what I didn't

0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:03.200
<v Speaker 1>appreciate how the policies in Brazil are basically baked in

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:07.520
<v Speaker 1>by the government and there it's getting way worse and

0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:12.240
<v Speaker 1>we're just seeing absolute devastation. And when you think about

0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:14.480
<v Speaker 1>this tipping point that we talk about the in the

0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:18.440
<v Speaker 1>article where that Amazon is about to become Savannah and

0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:21.800
<v Speaker 1>that it will contribute to global warming rather than what

0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.160
<v Speaker 1>you just inherently think is that it you know, goes

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>the other way, that it's taking carbon out of the environment.

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:30.400
<v Speaker 1>The fact that it could become a contributing element everything

0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:32.560
<v Speaker 1>we know about climate change. You just sort of sit

0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 1>down and I think kind of have to put your

0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.120
<v Speaker 1>head in your hands when you kind of realize that,

0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're playing with games that are like wildly

0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 1>beyond our imaginations and things are starting to happen on

0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.440
<v Speaker 1>on levels that you know, makes some of these reverberations

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:48.960
<v Speaker 1>just feel like they could get much worse. Yet I'm

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>just a reminder that we're all connected, even if for

0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.240
<v Speaker 1>thousands of miles away. The role that the Amazon has

0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 1>traditionally played has been one that really is as as

0:16:56.440 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 1>we know the lungs of the world. Uh Joel Robin

0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:05.240
<v Speaker 1>Hood I started trading yesterday. UH shares higher today, although

0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:07.480
<v Speaker 1>it had a real lack lester day. Yesterday, shares higher

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:11.040
<v Speaker 1>by just about three three right now trading at thirty

0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:15.359
<v Speaker 1>six and and change. Um Annie Moss has a story

0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 1>and here about the I p O bring of the

0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:19.800
<v Speaker 1>broker that would the masses full circle. Talks about the

0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:22.480
<v Speaker 1>incredible growth that Robin Hood saw, especially over the last

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 1>eighteen months. So we um, you know, knew that uh

0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:30.359
<v Speaker 1>Robin Hood was gonna I p O this weekend. I

0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.359
<v Speaker 1>just wanted to kind of think ahead about how do

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.760
<v Speaker 1>we think back about what what robin Hood has changed.

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.080
<v Speaker 1>And that's really what any did in the story. I

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:40.600
<v Speaker 1>think it was a really good story in that you

0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:43.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of forget sometimes that what robin Hood has accomplished

0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:46.840
<v Speaker 1>here over the past decade is pretty remarkable. You know.

0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.200
<v Speaker 1>One of the biggest changes is just everything got free.

0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:51.440
<v Speaker 1>And when they made it free, it forced the whole

0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.880
<v Speaker 1>ecosystem two more or less match there that that that

0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.359
<v Speaker 1>cost and you know that that cost has been passed

0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 1>on to investors in other ways, um and then the

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:03.199
<v Speaker 1>other you know. One of the other things that I

0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:05.640
<v Speaker 1>thought was really interesting was this idea of fractional ownership

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:07.840
<v Speaker 1>where you don't have to go out and buy a

0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.199
<v Speaker 1>share of anything for that whole dollar amount. If you

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:13.040
<v Speaker 1>only have a dollar, you can throw that dollar at

0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:16.240
<v Speaker 1>an investment, and those are you know, you can't underestimate

0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:20.160
<v Speaker 1>how big of an influence that those ideas that came

0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.160
<v Speaker 1>from Silicon Valley more than than Wall Street probably have

0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:26.160
<v Speaker 1>have ended up having, i think, on the whole brokerage

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:29.680
<v Speaker 1>model and and has contributed to things like the memestock

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.280
<v Speaker 1>fevers that we've seen this year. It's a game changer. Hey,

0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.200
<v Speaker 1>one last story. We just want to highlight the magazine

0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.760
<v Speaker 1>Starbucks the new talent factory powering Corporate America. Who knew?

0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Just got about thirty forty seconds here. Yeah, So we

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:42.959
<v Speaker 1>have a great little collection of talent based stories in

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:45.320
<v Speaker 1>this because one of the things that in general that

0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:49.720
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing this race for talent, and we wanted to

0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:51.440
<v Speaker 1>kind of dive into that. And there's a great story

0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:54.439
<v Speaker 1>about ge hiring externally. They've not long been known as

0:18:54.440 --> 0:18:57.840
<v Speaker 1>a talent factory. The Starbrecks one I thought was really amazing.

0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.560
<v Speaker 1>It turns out that Corporate America news all stars come

0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:05.840
<v Speaker 1>from Starbucks and basically raids Starbucks, and Starbucks is okay

0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:07.840
<v Speaker 1>with that because those people go on and do other

0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:09.480
<v Speaker 1>things and then kind of end up coming back to

0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.439
<v Speaker 1>Starbucks eventually. It's like, it's amazing. And also I got

0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 1>highly recommend I know you pointed this out to us

0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.600
<v Speaker 1>Joel as well, after you've done a spot with us.

0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:20.040
<v Speaker 1>The remarks what happens after peak Everything by our Gina

0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:22.439
<v Speaker 1>Martin Adams. We've been talking so much about peak growth.

0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:25.640
<v Speaker 1>So it's a great issue, a great summer read. Check

0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:28.480
<v Speaker 1>it out on newsstands online at the Bloomberg and you

0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.280
<v Speaker 1>can also find it at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Alright,

0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:33.199
<v Speaker 1>til Weber, thank you so much of a great weekend.

0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:42.080
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:46.520
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So, top story

0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.320
<v Speaker 1>this weekend on this Friday, the impact of rising COVID cases. Again,

0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 1>Charlie just mentioned that headline more than thousand vaccine breakthrough

0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 1>cases identified in US. We've got a hold right through

0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:58.040
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg Buyer Drew Armstrong and team, so check

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:01.040
<v Speaker 1>that out. Uh. There's also story on the Bloomberg Today

0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:03.600
<v Speaker 1>Tim talking about the travel industry and how the travel

0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:07.159
<v Speaker 1>rebound is hitting an air pocket as the delta variant spread.

0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:11.439
<v Speaker 1>So Asia faltering, US growth stalling, Europeans though seeing a

0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:14.200
<v Speaker 1>comeback in terms of the travel industry that seems to

0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:17.320
<v Speaker 1>be taking hold of it. Well, somebody who has his

0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:19.720
<v Speaker 1>hand on the pulse of the travel industry is actual.

0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:22.800
<v Speaker 1>He for CEO of Tree Vago joining us now on

0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:25.520
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Germany. Actual. Great to have you back

0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.720
<v Speaker 1>with us. How are you I'm well, I'm well. How

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:31.680
<v Speaker 1>are Yeah, We're good. We're good. We're watching the rise

0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:35.800
<v Speaker 1>of delta good. We're like freaking out trying to understand

0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.240
<v Speaker 1>what the delta variant because it does feel like we're

0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:42.080
<v Speaker 1>getting conflicting tends too nice, I'll revise my statement, we're

0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:46.280
<v Speaker 1>freaking out, Axel, How do you make sense of wear masks,

0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:48.639
<v Speaker 1>get a vaccine, get a vaccine, don't wear masks. Like

0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:51.520
<v Speaker 1>you run a company where you have to be making decisions.

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:55.480
<v Speaker 1>How do you see it? So? UM, it's a good

0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:58.160
<v Speaker 1>question and it's quite complicated, but what we are seeing

0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:02.119
<v Speaker 1>right now in Europe, basically, I would say two things UM.

0:21:02.280 --> 0:21:07.120
<v Speaker 1>One is that UM having a high level of vaccinated

0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:12.520
<v Speaker 1>people helps UM significantly to to avoid severe cases, which

0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:18.920
<v Speaker 1>is the key objective UM. And the second thing UM

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:21.480
<v Speaker 1>that we are seeing is that the delta variant is

0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:25.200
<v Speaker 1>much more contagious. And so even at this this point

0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:27.720
<v Speaker 1>in the year where last year infections were very low,

0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:31.359
<v Speaker 1>the infections are searching. But so far, at least in

0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.560
<v Speaker 1>in the Netherlands, in the UK with very few receivere

0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 1>cases so mixed. I would say, how quickly does headlines

0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:44.520
<v Speaker 1>do headlines like this do rising cases? How quickly do

0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.440
<v Speaker 1>those manifest in changing the way that that people are

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.520
<v Speaker 1>using tree Vago. It's a global hotel and accommodation search platform.

0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:53.360
<v Speaker 1>So how quickly do you see rising cases or declining

0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:56.160
<v Speaker 1>cases in a place like the UK or parts of Europe.

0:21:56.600 --> 0:22:00.359
<v Speaker 1>How does that manifest itself into what happens on your platform?

0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:02.119
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the the the key thing is not so

0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:05.200
<v Speaker 1>much an increase in cases, because I mean, like heading

0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:08.400
<v Speaker 1>into the autumn, everybody is expecting cases to increase. Again,

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:10.240
<v Speaker 1>We've seen it last year and and in a way

0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:14.159
<v Speaker 1>we are seeing it every winter with with virus um

0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:17.879
<v Speaker 1>hitting us. But the thing that is really hurting the

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:22.360
<v Speaker 1>interest to travel our traveler restrictions so UM for example

0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:26.520
<v Speaker 1>spaying now being put on the high risk list in

0:22:26.560 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 1>Germany has an immediate impact because if you're traveling with

0:22:30.320 --> 0:22:33.760
<v Speaker 1>unvaccinated children, you have to quarantine, which has a huge

0:22:33.800 --> 0:22:36.840
<v Speaker 1>impact in particularly for families. And these kind of travel

0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:41.320
<v Speaker 1>restrictions are are making travel a lot less predictable, which

0:22:41.840 --> 0:22:44.879
<v Speaker 1>is the key problem from a travel industrict prospective. So

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:47.000
<v Speaker 1>it's it's it's more about the restrictions less about the

0:22:47.040 --> 0:22:51.840
<v Speaker 1>way that that people are emotionally digesting this information. Yeah,

0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:54.359
<v Speaker 1>I mean in a way, I mean the vaccination levels

0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:58.440
<v Speaker 1>are are now quite high and vaccine is widely available

0:22:58.480 --> 0:23:02.040
<v Speaker 1>in Europe, so whoever is very concerned about catching the

0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:07.200
<v Speaker 1>virus can get vaccinated. But there's no way around travel

0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:11.960
<v Speaker 1>restrictions even if you're vaccinated and and travel with your family. Hey,

0:23:12.000 --> 0:23:14.480
<v Speaker 1>actually your earnings came out after the close last night,

0:23:14.680 --> 0:23:17.640
<v Speaker 1>two Q revenue beating estimates. Commentary included that you saw

0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:20.320
<v Speaker 1>a strong recovery and travel demand in the second quarter.

0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:25.120
<v Speaker 1>I am curious, too bad breakdown of leisure versus business

0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:29.000
<v Speaker 1>business is still not that correct, absolutely so. So it's

0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:31.600
<v Speaker 1>it's very similar to what we've seen in last year.

0:23:32.119 --> 0:23:37.400
<v Speaker 1>There is a immediate search in really leisure um and

0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:40.560
<v Speaker 1>and beach and mountaindestination. So really the way to think

0:23:40.600 --> 0:23:43.280
<v Speaker 1>about is whatevery, wherever you would go with your family.

0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:47.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, those destinations are very very popular coming out

0:23:47.320 --> 0:23:50.919
<v Speaker 1>of the lockdown, which is understandable, and business travel is

0:23:50.920 --> 0:23:53.359
<v Speaker 1>still very limited. We'll talk to us a litt bit

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:56.440
<v Speaker 1>more about the trends within leisure because I know we've

0:23:56.440 --> 0:23:57.960
<v Speaker 1>talked with you in the past and that during the

0:23:58.000 --> 0:24:00.000
<v Speaker 1>pandemic we saw a play out here in the US.

0:24:00.320 --> 0:24:03.360
<v Speaker 1>Either people went to remote places when camping went away

0:24:03.400 --> 0:24:07.720
<v Speaker 1>from people but they also had to travel local. Is

0:24:07.760 --> 0:24:10.920
<v Speaker 1>that staying with us? Yeah, I mean there are still

0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:14.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean locally is very popular and the local destinations

0:24:14.160 --> 0:24:19.080
<v Speaker 1>that within reach our our book booked out basically, but

0:24:19.119 --> 0:24:22.160
<v Speaker 1>there is also a return to for the Northern Europeans

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:25.960
<v Speaker 1>to the Southern European destinations. Um. The weather is just

0:24:26.080 --> 0:24:28.520
<v Speaker 1>much better, to be honest, And we are now one

0:24:28.520 --> 0:24:31.880
<v Speaker 1>and a half years in the pandemic. Again, vaccination vaccines

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:35.640
<v Speaker 1>are widely available, so it is less scary than than

0:24:35.640 --> 0:24:39.240
<v Speaker 1>a year ago. Um, but obviously it's it's done, not

0:24:39.359 --> 0:24:42.639
<v Speaker 1>over yet. Actually, does business travel ever come back to

0:24:42.760 --> 0:24:47.000
<v Speaker 1>what it was pre pandemic? It's a it's it's it's

0:24:47.000 --> 0:24:49.439
<v Speaker 1>a big, big question and a good question. So so

0:24:49.760 --> 0:24:51.400
<v Speaker 1>the way we are thinking about it is that there

0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:55.000
<v Speaker 1>are basically two kinds of business trips. One is is

0:24:55.040 --> 0:24:58.360
<v Speaker 1>a relationship meeting and relationship trip, and the other one

0:24:58.400 --> 0:25:03.960
<v Speaker 1>is more transactional. And the relationship trips we think will

0:25:04.119 --> 0:25:07.280
<v Speaker 1>will church um at the right point in time, because

0:25:07.280 --> 0:25:10.159
<v Speaker 1>there's a huge backlog of important business partners that you

0:25:10.160 --> 0:25:13.639
<v Speaker 1>haven't seen in a very long time, and relationships cannot

0:25:13.640 --> 0:25:17.320
<v Speaker 1>really be built the same way via video conference on

0:25:17.359 --> 0:25:22.240
<v Speaker 1>the transactional meetings. They're most companies, will we praise a

0:25:22.240 --> 0:25:25.320
<v Speaker 1>certain percentage of those via video conference. And just to

0:25:25.320 --> 0:25:27.359
<v Speaker 1>give you give your sense, I mean internally, obviously we

0:25:27.359 --> 0:25:29.840
<v Speaker 1>are talking about the same thing and saying, okay, the

0:25:29.960 --> 0:25:33.240
<v Speaker 1>our key partners we need to see once a year.

0:25:33.440 --> 0:25:36.480
<v Speaker 1>But before the crisis, I mean, we've seen them a

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:38.359
<v Speaker 1>couple of times a year, and we are now using

0:25:38.440 --> 0:25:41.800
<v Speaker 1>video companies for the for the other meetings. That's fascinating, right,

0:25:41.800 --> 0:25:43.439
<v Speaker 1>because you guys are you know, as you run your

0:25:43.440 --> 0:25:45.320
<v Speaker 1>own company, what you're do in terms of business travel.

0:25:45.440 --> 0:25:47.560
<v Speaker 1>It's interesting you say that about the relationship trip. I

0:25:47.600 --> 0:25:51.760
<v Speaker 1>get that. I mean, we are slowly having some people

0:25:51.840 --> 0:25:54.199
<v Speaker 1>come in, but it's far and few between. They've got

0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:55.800
<v Speaker 1>to get tested. But I recently had a meeting with

0:25:55.800 --> 0:25:59.719
<v Speaker 1>the CEO and the press team, you know, his internal

0:25:59.720 --> 0:26:02.120
<v Speaker 1>and external press team brought him here so I could

0:26:02.160 --> 0:26:04.800
<v Speaker 1>meet him and talk with him because it was about

0:26:04.840 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 1>the first time, you know, possibly getting an interview. But

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:10.159
<v Speaker 1>it was all about relationship building, tim and that is

0:26:10.200 --> 0:26:14.080
<v Speaker 1>so different than doing a call over Zoom, doing a

0:26:14.160 --> 0:26:17.239
<v Speaker 1>call over Microsoft teams are doing a skype and I

0:26:17.240 --> 0:26:19.439
<v Speaker 1>feel the same way with with colleagues returning to the

0:26:19.480 --> 0:26:22.280
<v Speaker 1>office because meeting I mean, I've only worked here since

0:26:22.280 --> 0:26:24.600
<v Speaker 1>October and meeting people for the first time is a

0:26:24.680 --> 0:26:27.960
<v Speaker 1>lot different than talking to them over over a video

0:26:27.960 --> 0:26:30.199
<v Speaker 1>conferencing system. Yeah, it is pretty remarkable. You've been here

0:26:30.200 --> 0:26:32.399
<v Speaker 1>for eight months and then people walk in the student

0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:37.960
<v Speaker 1>You're like, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:26:38.040 --> 0:26:42.480
<v Speaker 1>Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio,

0:26:42.920 --> 0:26:45.720
<v Speaker 1>still with us as Axel, he for our CEO of Travago,

0:26:45.800 --> 0:26:48.879
<v Speaker 1>still with us on the phone from Germany. Hey, Axel,

0:26:48.920 --> 0:26:52.199
<v Speaker 1>what's cool about speaking with someone with you like you

0:26:52.320 --> 0:26:54.320
<v Speaker 1>is that, first of all, you've got a global perspective

0:26:54.880 --> 0:26:57.080
<v Speaker 1>and you're seeing a lot in terms of what has

0:26:57.080 --> 0:27:00.119
<v Speaker 1>been an industry that has been so hard hit it

0:27:00.480 --> 0:27:02.479
<v Speaker 1>because of the pandemic. So we're getting an idea of,

0:27:02.520 --> 0:27:04.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of what reopening looks like and where

0:27:04.560 --> 0:27:06.720
<v Speaker 1>it's going. But you also collect a lot of data

0:27:07.080 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 1>and I do wonder about pricing of travel and travel packages.

0:27:13.520 --> 0:27:15.960
<v Speaker 1>Are there's still a lot of deals being offered to

0:27:16.240 --> 0:27:19.119
<v Speaker 1>incent people to actually take a trip. What can you

0:27:19.119 --> 0:27:22.520
<v Speaker 1>tell us about that? Yes, so so um so money

0:27:22.600 --> 0:27:24.920
<v Speaker 1>is currently not the key concern. I mean, so when

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:28.520
<v Speaker 1>you when the markets opened up, the key concern of

0:27:28.720 --> 0:27:32.080
<v Speaker 1>almost everybody, I would say, was to get out and

0:27:32.240 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 1>uh and to have a nice time and to get

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:39.480
<v Speaker 1>to a nice destination. So the top destinations are were

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:45.000
<v Speaker 1>fully booked very quickly. On the other hand, if you're um,

0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:48.240
<v Speaker 1>if you're if you're basically anti circlical in your behavior,

0:27:48.280 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 1>and if you're now going for city trips, you can

0:27:51.040 --> 0:27:53.840
<v Speaker 1>get very good deals because they're the key cities and

0:27:54.160 --> 0:27:58.640
<v Speaker 1>business destinations are still completely underutilized and occupancy is low,

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:04.119
<v Speaker 1>so it a bit mixed depending on what you're looking for. Um. Uh,

0:28:04.320 --> 0:28:08.520
<v Speaker 1>So there's no consistent picture. So you mentioned destinations. Top

0:28:08.520 --> 0:28:11.400
<v Speaker 1>destinations book pretty quickly. What are the top destinations? Where

0:28:11.440 --> 0:28:15.760
<v Speaker 1>is everybody going right now? So it's really going going

0:28:15.760 --> 0:28:18.600
<v Speaker 1>to the beach and to the top mountain mountain destinations. UM.

0:28:18.720 --> 0:28:20.920
<v Speaker 1>So if you just take Germany as an example, the

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:24.320
<v Speaker 1>German coast is pretty much fully booked as it was

0:28:24.400 --> 0:28:28.880
<v Speaker 1>last year. Um and then close by destinations like never

0:28:28.960 --> 0:28:31.560
<v Speaker 1>Land again at the coast or the mountains Austria or

0:28:31.640 --> 0:28:34.439
<v Speaker 1>also in southern Germany are pretty much fully booked, whereas

0:28:34.840 --> 0:28:37.680
<v Speaker 1>if you're going to Berlin. UM, A lot of the

0:28:37.720 --> 0:28:43.120
<v Speaker 1>international and in particularly long haul tourists are not in town.

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:45.880
<v Speaker 1>Very few business travelers are there, so a lot of

0:28:45.960 --> 0:28:50.080
<v Speaker 1>very nice hotels have a pretty attractive deal there. You

0:28:50.120 --> 0:28:53.240
<v Speaker 1>wrote in your earnings report that you expect revenues to

0:28:53.240 --> 0:28:56.760
<v Speaker 1>be concentrated in the summer months in one even more

0:28:56.840 --> 0:29:00.640
<v Speaker 1>so than was the case in years prior to the pandemic.

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:04.880
<v Speaker 1>What's a realistic way for investors intree Argo to to

0:29:04.920 --> 0:29:08.040
<v Speaker 1>think about a full recovery for your company? What would

0:29:08.040 --> 0:29:09.840
<v Speaker 1>have to happen and what would a timeline for that

0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:13.440
<v Speaker 1>look like. I think it will just take time, to

0:29:13.480 --> 0:29:17.280
<v Speaker 1>be honest now, because the pandemic is not over at

0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:19.720
<v Speaker 1>a certain point in time, but it's more going in

0:29:19.800 --> 0:29:22.640
<v Speaker 1>waves than we are seeing an upward trajectory. So it's

0:29:22.680 --> 0:29:25.200
<v Speaker 1>getting It's got a lot better now in summer like

0:29:25.400 --> 0:29:28.480
<v Speaker 1>last year, and it's it's almost certain that it will

0:29:28.520 --> 0:29:32.000
<v Speaker 1>get get worse over over the winter and then in

0:29:32.080 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 1>spring it will get better again. UM. But with every

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:37.480
<v Speaker 1>wave we learned better how to deal with the pandemic.

0:29:38.280 --> 0:29:41.080
<v Speaker 1>Medication is getting better, a number of vaccinated people is

0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:45.360
<v Speaker 1>hopefully continue to increase. UM and so in a way,

0:29:45.520 --> 0:29:50.960
<v Speaker 1>the impact of the virus will will diminish over time. Um,

0:29:51.080 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 1>but it will take some time for things to normalize,

0:29:54.840 --> 0:29:57.720
<v Speaker 1>because let's be honest, we've got a delta variant right now.

0:29:57.760 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 1>But as long as there are hundred of millions and

0:30:00.680 --> 0:30:04.560
<v Speaker 1>billions of people on our planet unvaccinated, it is guaranteed

0:30:04.560 --> 0:30:08.360
<v Speaker 1>that there will be new variants. So, UM, it will

0:30:08.400 --> 0:30:11.040
<v Speaker 1>take some time and will you have to be a

0:30:11.040 --> 0:30:15.160
<v Speaker 1>bit patient if you're in trouble. But on the other hand, um,

0:30:15.160 --> 0:30:17.880
<v Speaker 1>it's uh, the industry is on an up watch objectory

0:30:18.000 --> 0:30:21.680
<v Speaker 1>and um it's it's also exciting and opens up a

0:30:21.720 --> 0:30:24.600
<v Speaker 1>lot of opportunities if you're in an industry that is

0:30:24.680 --> 0:30:28.000
<v Speaker 1>that volatile. Um, and it's also changing now. I know

0:30:28.080 --> 0:30:30.880
<v Speaker 1>it's later there in Germany. You sound pretty tired though,

0:30:33.760 --> 0:30:35.840
<v Speaker 1>and tell us I know yet earnings. That's right, Tim,

0:30:35.880 --> 0:30:38.320
<v Speaker 1>good point. But when we talked about it too, it's

0:30:38.360 --> 0:30:41.959
<v Speaker 1>been very dense and the amount of headlines coming at us,

0:30:42.040 --> 0:30:44.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of a lot of movement in our world,

0:30:44.080 --> 0:30:46.800
<v Speaker 1>and still a fair amount of uncertainty. How do you

0:30:46.840 --> 0:30:49.320
<v Speaker 1>see the outlook? What? How what do you feel comfortable

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:51.640
<v Speaker 1>kind of committing to when it comes to the next

0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:57.920
<v Speaker 1>six or twelve months. So see, I told you seem tired.

0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:01.760
<v Speaker 1>It's all entire they up to me. But but basically

0:31:01.800 --> 0:31:04.800
<v Speaker 1>what we're saying internally is we need we need to

0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:07.520
<v Speaker 1>stay optimistic and focus on the positives. And the summer

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:10.840
<v Speaker 1>was now very very positive. UM and even with the

0:31:10.920 --> 0:31:14.000
<v Speaker 1>with the autumn getting getting a bit worse. UM, it

0:31:14.080 --> 0:31:17.120
<v Speaker 1>is important to then then focus on next summer and

0:31:17.120 --> 0:31:20.520
<v Speaker 1>and focus on on the opportunities that are arising. And

0:31:20.960 --> 0:31:22.960
<v Speaker 1>one thing that that I think we talked about before

0:31:23.000 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 1>is we launched a new local travel product that is

0:31:26.240 --> 0:31:29.160
<v Speaker 1>an opportunity, so there is more demand for local travel.

0:31:29.240 --> 0:31:32.560
<v Speaker 1>So UM, all of us need to stay positive and

0:31:32.600 --> 0:31:35.480
<v Speaker 1>really focus focus on the positives and the opportunity. Is

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:39.400
<v Speaker 1>it's very easy to be carried away by um a

0:31:39.440 --> 0:31:42.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of the frustrating things that that we are all

0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:44.800
<v Speaker 1>facing and have been facing now for quite a while. Yeah.

0:31:44.800 --> 0:31:47.040
<v Speaker 1>I know that's a good point. And I think people

0:31:47.080 --> 0:31:49.360
<v Speaker 1>are really finding travel as a way to just kind

0:31:49.400 --> 0:31:52.840
<v Speaker 1>of boost their energy and and feel more normal. He

0:31:52.960 --> 0:31:55.240
<v Speaker 1>just got about thirty forty seconds. Workers. You guys have

0:31:55.280 --> 0:31:57.840
<v Speaker 1>a global workforce. Are you finding workers that you need?

0:31:57.840 --> 0:32:00.160
<v Speaker 1>Are you adding enough? Are you are you adding any

0:32:00.240 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 1>give me an idea what you're doing with your your workforce. Yes,

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:06.400
<v Speaker 1>so there. I mean we've we've always been global, but

0:32:06.400 --> 0:32:09.440
<v Speaker 1>but running the business um from one location, so just

0:32:09.600 --> 0:32:12.360
<v Speaker 1>in Germany. So we've we've even before the pandemic had

0:32:12.400 --> 0:32:15.560
<v Speaker 1>seventy percent of our colleagues coming from abroad and we

0:32:15.600 --> 0:32:18.920
<v Speaker 1>continue to do that. But but you're right, Um, depending

0:32:19.080 --> 0:32:22.000
<v Speaker 1>on where a new colleagues are coming from, sometimes they

0:32:22.040 --> 0:32:24.640
<v Speaker 1>have to start to work actually from abroad because the

0:32:24.680 --> 0:32:28.400
<v Speaker 1>immigration process takes longer. Um, if you're in a in

0:32:28.440 --> 0:32:32.160
<v Speaker 1>a lockdown situation, you can't go ecletally to the embassy, etcetera.

0:32:32.200 --> 0:32:35.160
<v Speaker 1>So in a way, I think to simplify everything is

0:32:35.200 --> 0:32:39.520
<v Speaker 1>more complicated and will stay more complicated. But again that

0:32:39.720 --> 0:32:42.120
<v Speaker 1>that it is the way it is and and we

0:32:42.200 --> 0:32:44.520
<v Speaker 1>just need to deal with it. Well. Always great to

0:32:44.560 --> 0:32:46.760
<v Speaker 1>hear your voice, and I hope you get some time

0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:49.200
<v Speaker 1>off as well this summer, and let's hope that in

0:32:49.280 --> 0:32:52.440
<v Speaker 1>terms of travel and reopening, it all continues aspl Heaper,

0:32:52.600 --> 0:32:55.320
<v Speaker 1>chief executive Officer of Travigo. I really go to voice

0:32:55.320 --> 0:32:57.000
<v Speaker 1>for us throughout the pandemic when it comes to the

0:32:57.040 --> 0:32:59.920
<v Speaker 1>travel industry with us from Germany, all depending on the

0:33:00.120 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 1>pandemic recovery, saying it's not going to just be gone

0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:05.400
<v Speaker 1>right coming in waves. That's what we see exactly. You

0:33:05.400 --> 0:33:08.920
<v Speaker 1>are listening to Bloomberg Business Week on Bloomberg Radio. I'm

0:33:09.080 --> 0:33:16.080
<v Speaker 1>roc journal. Yeah, but you let me drive? No, no, no,

0:33:16.080 --> 0:33:22.240
<v Speaker 1>no's home please, I'll do the right ravel. I don't

0:33:22.240 --> 0:33:37.480
<v Speaker 1>want to drive, just drive baby. The question trying this

0:33:38.000 --> 0:33:40.920
<v Speaker 1>is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks. We'll

0:33:41.000 --> 0:33:44.400
<v Speaker 1>dry us to dawn on Bloomberg Radio for a week

0:33:44.840 --> 0:33:48.200
<v Speaker 1>and we're wrapping up the month of over yet. Okay,

0:33:48.240 --> 0:33:50.560
<v Speaker 1>come on, we have that tenant a half minutes left

0:33:50.560 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 1>in today's trading session. But we are getting ready to

0:33:52.920 --> 0:33:56.400
<v Speaker 1>wrap up quite a trading week, quite a trading month.

0:33:56.760 --> 0:33:59.280
<v Speaker 1>Stocks are definitely off their highs and lows of the day.

0:33:59.400 --> 0:34:01.400
<v Speaker 1>Is Charlie just breaking down those numbers. So let's get

0:34:01.400 --> 0:34:04.000
<v Speaker 1>to it. The drive to the close. At Jay Hatfield,

0:34:04.040 --> 0:34:06.960
<v Speaker 1>he see you and founder of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, the

0:34:07.040 --> 0:34:10.600
<v Speaker 1>Infra Infra Cap Active MLP et f IT invest in

0:34:10.640 --> 0:34:15.120
<v Speaker 1>Master Limited Partnerships is up about fifty so far year today,

0:34:15.200 --> 0:34:17.080
<v Speaker 1>he joins us on the phone in New York City. Hey,

0:34:17.160 --> 0:34:20.520
<v Speaker 1>j how are you good. Thanks for having me on. Well,

0:34:20.560 --> 0:34:24.000
<v Speaker 1>great to have you on. Uh, we're kind of tired.

0:34:24.120 --> 0:34:26.799
<v Speaker 1>It's been a really dense week and what's been a

0:34:26.840 --> 0:34:29.839
<v Speaker 1>dense month, and what's been already a dense year. How

0:34:29.840 --> 0:34:31.799
<v Speaker 1>do you see kind of where we are in the

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:36.120
<v Speaker 1>market cycle, the economic cycle. Well, we think it's it's

0:34:36.120 --> 0:34:41.400
<v Speaker 1>a riskier time to invest. We've been extremely bullish since

0:34:41.520 --> 0:34:44.680
<v Speaker 1>March of last year when the FED intervened. So we

0:34:44.719 --> 0:34:47.600
<v Speaker 1>are we are saying is follow the Fed, not don't

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:50.160
<v Speaker 1>fight it, but follow it. And if you normally, if

0:34:50.160 --> 0:34:53.200
<v Speaker 1>you do that, you're you'll be successful. But so now

0:34:53.360 --> 0:34:56.560
<v Speaker 1>it's much more dicecy because we believe the FED will

0:34:56.560 --> 0:35:03.480
<v Speaker 1>have to taper, and specifically you can't the um quantity

0:35:03.560 --> 0:35:07.680
<v Speaker 1>theory of money does is operative at the extreme, in

0:35:07.719 --> 0:35:11.240
<v Speaker 1>other words, to increase the monetary base or or money

0:35:11.400 --> 0:35:15.520
<v Speaker 1>about a year, eventually you're gonna have inflation at d

0:35:15.680 --> 0:35:18.799
<v Speaker 1>and we've seen that in developing countries like Lebanon. But

0:35:19.040 --> 0:35:25.120
<v Speaker 1>the US has increased the monetary based so we believe

0:35:25.160 --> 0:35:27.919
<v Speaker 1>that inflation could be transitory, but only if the FED

0:35:28.000 --> 0:35:31.279
<v Speaker 1>stops increasing the monetary base at that rate. So you're

0:35:31.320 --> 0:35:35.000
<v Speaker 1>going to see eventually the Fed take the punch bowl away.

0:35:35.440 --> 0:35:38.800
<v Speaker 1>That's more likely to happen next year. And then also

0:35:39.200 --> 0:35:42.840
<v Speaker 1>next year is going to be a big deceleration and

0:35:43.840 --> 0:35:50.960
<v Speaker 1>inflation well, and and also price inflation. Eventually, eventually that

0:35:51.120 --> 0:35:53.359
<v Speaker 1>the normal cycle which we saw No. Seven or eight

0:35:53.440 --> 0:35:56.240
<v Speaker 1>is you just had acid inflation. Then the FED tapered,

0:35:56.280 --> 0:35:58.920
<v Speaker 1>and also of course it was a horrible almost a

0:35:58.960 --> 0:36:04.120
<v Speaker 1>depression worth session since World War Two, but they did taper.

0:36:04.360 --> 0:36:07.560
<v Speaker 1>My only point is that now that we're in full recovery,

0:36:07.600 --> 0:36:10.600
<v Speaker 1>they haven't even started tapering. And this KIWI is much

0:36:11.120 --> 0:36:15.000
<v Speaker 1>larger than the last QWI. So eventually they asset inflation

0:36:15.200 --> 0:36:19.000
<v Speaker 1>and leads to real inflation, which is what we think

0:36:19.120 --> 0:36:22.120
<v Speaker 1>we see now, and some of its transitory. But if

0:36:22.120 --> 0:36:26.040
<v Speaker 1>you keep increasing the money supply by eventually we'll get

0:36:26.120 --> 0:36:30.479
<v Speaker 1>double digit inflation. Otherwise every country in the world would

0:36:30.480 --> 0:36:33.600
<v Speaker 1>do that because it's a great business. You issue currency

0:36:33.719 --> 0:36:36.800
<v Speaker 1>and get back, you know, real goods. So there is

0:36:36.800 --> 0:36:39.160
<v Speaker 1>a limit to it. Obviously US can get away with

0:36:39.200 --> 0:36:42.000
<v Speaker 1>it more than Lebanon can. But so the FIT is

0:36:42.040 --> 0:36:44.000
<v Speaker 1>going to have to taper at some point. Even they

0:36:44.000 --> 0:36:46.360
<v Speaker 1>are saying that now where do you see, where do

0:36:46.400 --> 0:36:48.080
<v Speaker 1>you see? Where are you going to see this in

0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:50.080
<v Speaker 1>the data, where which prices are you going to see

0:36:50.160 --> 0:36:52.520
<v Speaker 1>increased like that? And at that point, what do you

0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:55.919
<v Speaker 1>do well? I think that that you know, every that's

0:36:55.960 --> 0:36:59.440
<v Speaker 1>a good point, like every CPI report is a potential

0:36:59.480 --> 0:37:02.720
<v Speaker 1>negative at lists. But of course the FETE is saying

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:04.960
<v Speaker 1>that it's transitorian that they're going to hold off. So

0:37:05.800 --> 0:37:08.520
<v Speaker 1>the real issue, we're really more neutral on the market

0:37:08.960 --> 0:37:14.279
<v Speaker 1>because you do have this billion dollars of liquidity be

0:37:14.360 --> 0:37:16.480
<v Speaker 1>inject every month. It has to go somewhere, so we're

0:37:16.520 --> 0:37:19.799
<v Speaker 1>more range bound in the market. So yes, you know,

0:37:19.880 --> 0:37:23.120
<v Speaker 1>CPR will probably print hot, market will get a little weak,

0:37:23.160 --> 0:37:25.319
<v Speaker 1>but then there's so much liquidity you get bid, just

0:37:25.400 --> 0:37:27.800
<v Speaker 1>like we saw when we went down to the fifty

0:37:27.840 --> 0:37:30.640
<v Speaker 1>day moving average. That lasted all of you one night

0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:34.239
<v Speaker 1>and then we were stabilized. So it's not like we're

0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:37.160
<v Speaker 1>saying go sell everything. We're really saying it's a good

0:37:37.200 --> 0:37:41.200
<v Speaker 1>time to be defensive, get into equity, income securities, and

0:37:41.280 --> 0:37:45.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe not you know, be gambling on on the latest

0:37:45.960 --> 0:37:48.920
<v Speaker 1>fat whether it be bitcoin or mean stocks or or

0:37:48.960 --> 0:37:55.040
<v Speaker 1>potentially overvalued tech stocks. Bond market, though it's been an

0:37:55.040 --> 0:37:57.960
<v Speaker 1>interesting trade where we've often seen both bonds and stocks

0:37:58.280 --> 0:38:01.879
<v Speaker 1>go up in tandem and rates are still incredibly low

0:38:02.719 --> 0:38:06.880
<v Speaker 1>all along the yield curve. And so we've seen the

0:38:06.920 --> 0:38:09.399
<v Speaker 1>bond market tell us a different story when they don't

0:38:09.520 --> 0:38:12.400
<v Speaker 1>buy what the fete is saying or buy what the

0:38:12.440 --> 0:38:15.840
<v Speaker 1>economic data points are saying. So what's your take on

0:38:15.880 --> 0:38:19.480
<v Speaker 1>where the bond market is. Well, what you saw is

0:38:19.520 --> 0:38:22.280
<v Speaker 1>in mid May, and it gets back to Tim's question

0:38:22.400 --> 0:38:24.680
<v Speaker 1>about what are the inflection points. So in mid May

0:38:25.400 --> 0:38:28.319
<v Speaker 1>you got the April cp I and then there would

0:38:28.360 --> 0:38:33.080
<v Speaker 1>start a commencement of discussion of taper, and you saw

0:38:33.480 --> 0:38:38.600
<v Speaker 1>the inflation implied. Uh, you know in the bond market

0:38:38.640 --> 0:38:42.279
<v Speaker 1>between tips, the gap between tips and treasuries and the

0:38:42.360 --> 0:38:44.960
<v Speaker 1>tenure declined by thirty basis points. So that was roughly

0:38:45.520 --> 0:38:49.360
<v Speaker 1>how much treasuries decline. So we do think that the market,

0:38:49.680 --> 0:38:51.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe more the bond market than the stock market, is

0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:55.600
<v Speaker 1>pricing in stagflation next year. Because it's important to realize

0:38:55.640 --> 0:38:58.840
<v Speaker 1>this isn't sort of a you know, a crazy forecast

0:38:58.840 --> 0:39:02.120
<v Speaker 1>of ours and there's going to be we're forecasting eight

0:39:02.640 --> 0:39:09.400
<v Speaker 1>billion of fiscal deceleration, you know, thirty billionellion from taxes

0:39:09.440 --> 0:39:13.680
<v Speaker 1>and five from spending. Because you just can't replicate the

0:39:13.880 --> 0:39:17.560
<v Speaker 1>stimulus that occurred, um, you know, with the three trillions

0:39:17.560 --> 0:39:20.080
<v Speaker 1>of stimulus that occurred at the beginning of this year.

0:39:20.120 --> 0:39:22.080
<v Speaker 1>But that's just it's not gonna happen next year. There's

0:39:22.120 --> 0:39:23.719
<v Speaker 1>gonna be a lot of spending, but not that kind

0:39:23.719 --> 0:39:27.920
<v Speaker 1>of spending. So stagflation is by far the most likely case,

0:39:28.360 --> 0:39:30.440
<v Speaker 1>and we think the bond market is pricing that in

0:39:30.520 --> 0:39:33.400
<v Speaker 1>maybe a little bit earlier than the stock market. And

0:39:33.440 --> 0:39:35.279
<v Speaker 1>so that's why we're a little bit cautious about the

0:39:35.280 --> 0:39:38.040
<v Speaker 1>stock market. And I think that you know, security is

0:39:38.080 --> 0:39:41.239
<v Speaker 1>like preferred stock that are senior to common give you

0:39:41.800 --> 0:39:45.480
<v Speaker 1>some income, probably a better way to play over the

0:39:45.560 --> 0:39:48.000
<v Speaker 1>next three or you know, during the fall, which is

0:39:48.080 --> 0:39:51.600
<v Speaker 1>usually a very vaultile time. Uh So, And if you

0:39:51.800 --> 0:39:54.640
<v Speaker 1>do a great thing about income security, even if you

0:39:54.680 --> 0:39:58.360
<v Speaker 1>miss a little rally and tech stocks or recovery inflation stocks,

0:39:58.840 --> 0:40:01.160
<v Speaker 1>you still get paid to weigh. They're great companies like

0:40:01.239 --> 0:40:07.040
<v Speaker 1>utilities are preferred of utilities, uh reads, and um, you know,

0:40:07.160 --> 0:40:10.200
<v Speaker 1>consumer staples. So it's not like you're gonna it's a

0:40:10.239 --> 0:40:12.320
<v Speaker 1>tragedy if you miss out on a little bit of rally.

0:40:12.320 --> 0:40:14.040
<v Speaker 1>And the tech sector, well, let's talk a little bit

0:40:14.040 --> 0:40:16.800
<v Speaker 1>about the tech sector, because you did describe tech companies

0:40:16.840 --> 0:40:19.960
<v Speaker 1>as being overvalued. Amazon down seven point five percent after

0:40:20.000 --> 0:40:24.560
<v Speaker 1>a miss on revenue and then the guidance really spooking investors. Um,

0:40:24.600 --> 0:40:27.279
<v Speaker 1>what what stock specifically do you think are overvalued and

0:40:27.280 --> 0:40:31.680
<v Speaker 1>when would you buy into those? Well, I'm not going

0:40:31.719 --> 0:40:34.600
<v Speaker 1>to get into all the names that clearly the companies

0:40:34.880 --> 0:40:39.879
<v Speaker 1>the big tech actually is acting more defensive lea than

0:40:40.120 --> 0:40:43.800
<v Speaker 1>than um you know, any other ethic class really, but

0:40:43.920 --> 0:40:48.440
<v Speaker 1>we're really talking about the tech stocks that rely on

0:40:48.800 --> 0:40:52.719
<v Speaker 1>forecasts of earnings five or six or seven years out,

0:40:53.360 --> 0:40:56.840
<v Speaker 1>and those are the ones that tend to do um

0:40:56.960 --> 0:41:00.360
<v Speaker 1>the you know, the poorest during any you know, down turns.

0:41:01.160 --> 0:41:03.880
<v Speaker 1>So that's kind of what we're referring to, not really

0:41:03.920 --> 0:41:07.160
<v Speaker 1>the mega caps. I mean, arguably Amazon was just a

0:41:07.200 --> 0:41:09.640
<v Speaker 1>little bit of ahead of itself. And really, if you

0:41:09.719 --> 0:41:14.360
<v Speaker 1>dig into the announcement, mean their core kind of secret

0:41:14.400 --> 0:41:18.600
<v Speaker 1>sauce businesses to have the biggest margins are actually growing

0:41:18.680 --> 0:41:21.040
<v Speaker 1>very fast. So I wouldn't be surprised if it's kind

0:41:21.080 --> 0:41:24.280
<v Speaker 1>of finding sound forward support here that it doesn't bounce

0:41:24.320 --> 0:41:28.960
<v Speaker 1>back forward. And look what happened last year. Now, I

0:41:29.520 --> 0:41:32.439
<v Speaker 1>expectations were high. It's all perspective here. We gotta run.

0:41:32.480 --> 0:41:34.680
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, really appreciate it. Have a great weekend.

0:41:34.760 --> 0:41:39.200
<v Speaker 1>J Hatfield. He's chief executive officer. He is also founder

0:41:39.200 --> 0:41:42.880
<v Speaker 1>of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, is in for cap Active MLP

0:41:43.000 --> 0:41:46.520
<v Speaker 1>et F as I mentioned so far uh this year.

0:41:47.800 --> 0:41:50.680
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:41:50.680 --> 0:41:53.680
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0:41:53.680 --> 0:41:55.840
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0:41:55.880 --> 0:41:59.000
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0:41:59.040 --> 0:42:02.720
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