1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. My guest is known 2 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: as mister Mars for his pioneering efforts and writing on 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: Mars and why we need to colonize it, And I 4 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: have to say there are not many people who I 5 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: admire more because of his consistency, his commitment, his energy, 6 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: and the fact that when we finally land on Mars 7 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: to stay, he will have been one of the heroic 8 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: pioneers who admit it possible. I was reminded of this 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: when I read Profound Potential of Elon Musk's new rocket. Doctor. 10 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: Robert Zubern is a former staff engineer at lockeed Martin Astronautics. 11 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: He's now president of his own company, Pioneer Astronautics. He's 12 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,480 Speaker 1: also the founder and president of Mars Society, an international 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: organization dedicated to furthering the exploration and settlement of Mars, 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: and the author of over two hundred publications and several books, 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: including most importantly The Case for Mars, The Plan to 16 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: Settled the Red Planet, and Why We Must which was 17 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: originally published in nineteen ninety six, and he has recently 18 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: released the updated twenty fifth anniversary. First, I'll just say 19 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: thank you Robert for joining us. Thanks for inviting me. 20 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: You were a science teacher for seven years before becoming 21 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 1: an engineer. You have a bachelors and math of masters 22 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: and nuclear engineering, and other masters in aeronautics and astronautics, 23 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: and a PhD in nuclear engineering, so you clearly have 24 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: more than enough academic credentials with this. But I'm curious, 25 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:54,919 Speaker 1: what can't you involved with Mars. Well, what actually first 26 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: got me involved with space, if you want to know, 27 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: was I was five when spot Nick flew and it's 28 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: actually the first major world event that I can remember 29 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: in terms of my personal experience. And while it was 30 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: terrifying to many of the adults, to me as a 31 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: little kid, it was just grand because what it meant 32 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: was that these stories I was already in science fiction 33 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: that I was reading about the space for in future 34 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: were going to be true, and I wanted to be 35 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: part of it. So I just learned all the science 36 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: that could launch rockets. My father got me a telescope. 37 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: You know, I was nine when Kennedy made a speech 38 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 1: committing us to go to the Moon. I was seventeen 39 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: when we landed on the moon. You know, during the sixties, 40 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 1: we were moving out, but then the early seventies. It 41 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: all came to a screeching hall. While I was in college, 42 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: and I was the first generation of my family to 43 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: go to college, and so grand school didn't even occur 44 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: to me. To me, you went to college and then 45 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: you got to trade. You went out, so, okay, well, 46 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: I know a lot of science. I'll be a science teacher. 47 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: And I did that for seven years or so. But then, 48 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: you know, I started to hear the drum, as it were. 49 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 1: You know, this isn't what I signed up for. And 50 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: by then I had heard a graduate school, and so 51 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: I went back and became an astronautical engineer and got 52 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: hired by Martin Marietta, which is now like you Martin, 53 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: and worked there for a time, and then I decided 54 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 1: to go out in my own. I mean, I think 55 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 1: you're most famous for both your book The Case from 56 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: Mars and for having founded the society which has committed 57 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 1: to getting us to Mars. Did you expect to be 58 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: involved in this kind of long term educational political structure. Well, 59 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: I mean, to be Frank newte I was hoping we 60 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: could do this a bit faster than it has turned out, 61 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: because you know, to me, growing up during Apollo. You know, 62 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: humans to Mars, which by the way, by the nineties 63 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: was a less of a technical challenge than going to 64 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: the Moon was in the sixties. Why can't we just 65 00:03:55,640 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: do this and it's taken longer. I think what advantage 66 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: they had in the sixties was I think the political 67 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: class had grown up and tested in World War Two 68 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: and the Cold War, and you know, they knew how 69 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: to work together to get things done. I think there's 70 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 1: been entropy there and NASA, the young NASA was very, 71 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: very island bold, but it got old and it took 72 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: a new force that has emerged on the scene to 73 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: really get us moving in and that's entrepreneurial space. And 74 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: I'm proud to say that Mars Society helped recruit Elon 75 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: Muss to the cause of Mars. But his accomplishments are 76 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: his own. And nothing can stop an idea as time 77 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: has come. If the idea has messengers that can help 78 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 1: it recruit to its banners, that force is necessary for 79 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: its victory. And we helped do that, and now he's 80 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: doing it. And you know what he and SpaceX hath 81 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 1: managed to prove is that it's possible for a well 82 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 1: led entrepreneurial team to do things that were previously thought 83 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: to require the efforts of the government's of superpowers, and 84 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: not only that, do it in one third the time 85 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: at less than one tenth the cost, and even do 86 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 1: things they had deemed impossible altogether, including reusable launch vehicles 87 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 1: that could come back and land at the launch site 88 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: instead have just been crashed from the ocean. And this, 89 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: of course is the key to cheap space flight, cheap 90 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: enough to make possible the settling a space because air travel, 91 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 1: if you had to throw your airliners after each flight, 92 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 1: clearly air travel would only be a thing for billionaires. 93 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: Musk has had a very methodical approach to this, building 94 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: a relatively small rocket, testing out the ability to land 95 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: and reuse it. And I think he has at least 96 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: one rocket now that has been reused more than ten times. 97 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: You're correct on that. But his method has been incredibly bold, methodical, 98 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: to be sure. But he's not afraid of failure. They 99 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: failed five times in attempting to use and land the 100 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: rock before they succeeded. They just kept going. And all 101 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 1: of us have now who all of a culties too 102 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 1: care about space, have watched the degree to which the 103 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 1: Falcon nine has dramatically reduced costs increased the ability to 104 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 1: do things, But part of that also is and I 105 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 1: frankly don't fully understand this, even though I loved your article, 106 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: but starship is apparently a different kind of beast. There's 107 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: as big a jump over the Falcon as Falcon was 108 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: over non reusable traditional rockets. And I think this is 109 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: really what Musk has been aiming at the whole time, 110 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 1: is to be able to acquire the knowledge and the 111 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 1: capacity to build an enormous number of starships. But could 112 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 1: you explain the difference in size and incapability between the 113 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: Starship and the Falcon nine. Sure, the starship is going 114 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: to have about five times the payload capability Falcon nine 115 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: and yet actually be cheaper to launch because the Falcon 116 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: nine is mostly reusable. The Starship is fully reusable. Falcon 117 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: nine has a first stage with nine engines, that part, 118 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: as we used, the upper stage with one engine, is expended. 119 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 1: The Starship is much bigger vehicle than the Falcon nine, 120 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: and Falcon nine as a payload capacity of twenty tons, 121 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 1: which is quite respectable, that's as much as a space ship. 122 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: But the Starship is more payload capability approaching that of 123 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: the Saturn five moon rocket. And it's quite the leap. 124 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: If you were flying small aircraft DC three and expended 125 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: it with each flight, that would still be more expensive 126 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: than flying a seven forty seven, which is reusable. And 127 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: so that's really the jumping made here. Now. It's quite 128 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: the leap. But you can see how they're pushing this forward. 129 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: That their launch and they got through most of the 130 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: flight envelope and then they crashed. And they did the 131 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: same thing again and then they actually landed it, but 132 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 1: it was a hard landing and forty five minutes after 133 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,559 Speaker 1: it land didn't explode. It okay, And they tried five 134 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: times before they got it right. But you know Musk's 135 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: philosophy is I mean, I visited them down there a 136 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: year ago and Boca Chica, they weren't building a ship 137 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: they're building a ship yard, and they're turning these things out. 138 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: He said he was going to be turning them out 139 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: a rate of one a month, and he actually is 140 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: turning the matter a ray to one a month. And 141 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 1: so he get a force to launch, crash, find out 142 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: what went wrong, and try again. Congressman Bob Walker and 143 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 1: I in the late eighties, I actually got money appropriated 144 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: to NASA to build a reusable rocket, and I think 145 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: it was about a four hundred million dollar contract. Ultimately, 146 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:52,719 Speaker 1: I think it was Lockheed. They got the contract, but 147 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: they tried to design that just didn't work, and so 148 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: they quickly they walked off. Okay, so that was the 149 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: X thirty three is call during the nineties. And well, 150 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 1: first of all, I think that contract should not have 151 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: been awarded a Lockey Maarnin. It should have been awarded 152 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: to McDonald douglas, who were the people who had pushed 153 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: the whole concept of the reusable launch vehicle. Once you 154 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: put a contract on the table, Locke did it, and 155 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: they wrote a nicer proposal, but they were not passionately 156 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: committed to the success of the thing, and I think 157 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: that that ultimately showed it. I mean, I think what 158 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 1: you're seeing with SpaceX is the power passion then give 159 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: up after the first one crashed? Actually must you know? 160 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: The Falcon one is very first launcher. The first three 161 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: launches all failed, and he wasn't not expecting that. He 162 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: was naive at that point, but nevertheless, when he got 163 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 1: hit in the face with the reality how hard it 164 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: is he just kept going because he was committed. You know, 165 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: he's not doing this for the money. This guy knows 166 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,199 Speaker 1: a lot of easier ways to make money than a 167 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: rocket company. But he's doing it because he wants to 168 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: do something eternal significance, and that underlies his priorities. I 169 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: was invited by Vice President Pence to be sort of 170 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: an informal advisor to the National Space Council, and so 171 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: I had access to a lot of the NASA stuff. 172 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: And one of the things we could never break, which 173 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: I think was just pure raw politics, was when you 174 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: look at Starship as an example, I don't see any 175 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:28,719 Speaker 1: case anymore for funding the Space Launch System, and it's 176 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 1: been an enormous boondog, a huge amount of money wasted, 177 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: no achievement. They haven't gotten to the first launch after 178 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: something like eight or nine years. It's been longer than 179 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: eight or nine years. I was on the team that 180 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: did the preliminary design of SLS in nineteen eighty eight. 181 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: In nineteen eighty eight. Yes, it's been thirty three years. 182 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: You just added to my knowledge base. That's astonishing. Yeah. 183 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: I mean there's people working on SLS that weren't born 184 00:10:56,320 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: yet when the project was begun. That's remarkable. And then 185 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,959 Speaker 1: at one level, it shows some far sight in this 186 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: at NASA that in the nineteen eighty eight they were 187 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: willing to at least look at a large lift rocket, 188 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: even if they couldn't find the political will to execute it. Well, 189 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: the original idea you see all SLS is it's the 190 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: Shuttle without the orbiter. I mean, that's literally what it is. 191 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: We were trying to figure out how to put together 192 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: a heavy lift launch vehicle using the then available technologies, 193 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: which was the Shuttle components, the solids, the SSMEs external tank, 194 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: so for and so this was the answer, was the 195 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: obvious answer in nineteen eighty eight. And it could launch 196 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 1: from the Shuttle pads and it would use more or 197 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: less all the Shuttle launch infrastructure, and it'd be simpler 198 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: than the Shuttle. And do you know in nineteen ninety three, 199 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: Administrator Golden, the Space station program was in trouble. He 200 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: called the Blue Ribbon Committee, which was headed by the 201 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 1: very eminent MIT professor Jack Carabrac, to fire out how 202 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: we're going to launch this space station, how we're gonna 203 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: get this job done. And the Caribrac group came up 204 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: with that you should develop this vehicle, a shuttle drive 205 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: heavy left launch vehicle, and then you could launch the 206 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 1: space station in three or four launches. But he was 207 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: overruled by Al Gore, who wanted to have a space 208 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: station that involved at least thirty launches so that he 209 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: could bring in the Russians and transfer money to this 210 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: crowd around Yeltsin. And they were basically using the space 211 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: station program as a method of financial support to the 212 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: Yeltsin crowd. And so we got this thing that ended 213 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: up taking more than two decades to construct, and we 214 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: didn't have the heavy left launch vehicle. And then what 215 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 1: happened was Yes, then Mike Griffin, when he wanted to 216 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: go back to the Moon, revived the plan. But by then, 217 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 1: and especially by two and ten, at which point the 218 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: space station was done and you could shift resources from 219 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 1: the shuttle program to developing the heavy lifter, all the 220 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: people in NASA who had developed the space Shuttle, not all, 221 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: but almost all had retired. See if we had developed 222 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: what is now called SLS but then called the ARIS 223 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: in the late eighties early nineties, you would have had 224 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 1: the very same team that had developed the Shuttle were 225 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: still at their posts but instead this job was handed 226 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: over to a generation that had never done anything like 227 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 1: this before, and the program has not been well led. 228 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: And also it's been subject to political winds coming from 229 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 1: all different directions, so it's been a mess. The Starship 230 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: begin to make it obsolete. Yeah, if the Starship is successful, 231 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: it will make SLS obsolete. You know, It's like SLS. 232 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: If we had developed this in the early nineties, it 233 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 1: would have had a nice twenty five year career of 234 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 1: helping our space program with heavy lift capabilities and be 235 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: ready for honorable retirement. But by the time this thing 236 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: has appeared, instead of developing the P fifty one Mustang 237 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: during World War Two, they had spent forty years working 238 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: on it and bringing it out into the field when 239 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 1: all fighters were already jets. It's not the problem with SLS. 240 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: The problem is SLS is coming in the wrong generation. 241 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: What's your guess is Starship kind of work? I think 242 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: it will. I think it's going to be harder than 243 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: Must thinks. Must is a very optimistic person, but I 244 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 1: guess that's one of the things that enables him to 245 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: accomplish so much. He thinks he's going to do it. 246 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: It turns out to be hard, but then he doesn't anyway, 247 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: might call him a tough dreamer. If it does work, 248 00:14:54,760 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 1: does it revolutionize our ability to go to Moon and Mars? Yes, 249 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: it does. It's totally revolutionary. It's mind blowing revolutionary. I 250 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: mean what mustun already has been a significant revolution. They've 251 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: cut the cost to space launched by a factor five 252 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: in the past ten years. When it had been stagnant 253 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: from nineteen seventy to ten, was ten thousand dollars a kilogram, 254 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: like it was some kind of law of nature. And 255 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: now it's two thousand dollars a kilogram. Kaboom, and the 256 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: starship will make it hundreds of dollars per kilogram. And 257 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: this is going to do a number of things. Okay, 258 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: First of all, it's going to cause there to be 259 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: a lot more space enterprise because it's gonna be so 260 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: much cheaper to go into space. And the more space 261 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: enterprise there is, the more space launches there is, the 262 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: more spacecraft there are, the more advanced, capable and cheap 263 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: spacecraft are going to be because they're going to become 264 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: mass production items, and spacecraft designers will not have to 265 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: be as conservative as they have been. You know, of course, 266 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: you a billion dollars to launch a spacecraft, you're not 267 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: going to take a chance on a new technology the 268 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: cost million dollars to launch a spacecraft, Well, sure, let's 269 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: take a chance if it will make the spacecraft itself 270 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: cheaper or more effective. So spacecraft technology is going through advents, 271 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 1: So cheaper space launch, cheaper spacecraft, both of them come 272 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 1: together to make all sorts of space business plans much 273 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: more cost effective and profitable. And yes, the goal here 274 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: that Musk has had is to enable space settlement. Now, 275 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: you know, if you went to NASA right now, and 276 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: if you convince them they could send people to Mars 277 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 1: for say three hundred million dollars a seat, they would 278 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: jump at the chance. They say, fine, okay, we're in 279 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 1: let's do it. We've got the budget, we can afford 280 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: send four astronauts three hundred million dollars each one point 281 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: two billion dollars, less than ten percent of our budget. 282 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: Let's go. Okay, but an emigrant going to Mars can't 283 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: afford to pay three hundred million dollars for his seat. 284 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: How much could the person of middle means muster if 285 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: he really wanted to emigrate to Mars? Maybe several hundred 286 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: thousand dollars by selling his house. How do you get 287 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 1: the cost of going to Mars, Not the three hundred 288 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: million dollars, but the three hundred thousand dollars. That's the 289 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: target that Musk is set, and that's why he's been relentless. 290 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: That's why he hasn't settled for the Falcons, which have 291 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: taken over most of the Free World launch market. Anyone 292 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 1: else would say, oh, this is great, I'm fine, I'm fat, 293 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: dumb and happy. No, he's moving on now. There's another 294 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: reason why he's moving on as well, which is that 295 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: the Chinese are hot on its tail. There's at least 296 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: five companies in China that entrepreneurial companies, if you will, 297 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: that have gotten investment money, that are developing things that 298 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 1: look a lot like Falcon minds, and there's no question 299 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: that they'll succeed because it's been shown that you can 300 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: do this, and these people are very good at making 301 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,640 Speaker 1: things work that other people have shown can be made 302 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: to work. And you know, if Starship works, they'll make 303 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: their own version of that too. And he's going to 304 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: have to go to the next level. And so this 305 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,239 Speaker 1: thing is not going to stop this thing is going 306 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: to continue to advance. It's very healthy competitive situation. You 307 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: may in the Chinese competition. What's your view of the 308 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:08,439 Speaker 1: way Jeff Bezos has approached this too slow? Too slow. 309 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: If he wants to compete with Musk, he's going to 310 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: have to get out of his hot tub. I've been 311 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: to Blue Origin, to SpaceX. They do not compare in 312 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: terms of the level of activity, level of expectation, and 313 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 1: certainly the leaders don't compare. I mean, if Musk fails, 314 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 1: it's going to because he works himself to death. This guy, 315 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: when I meet him, he's exhausted, he's running on seven cylinders. 316 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: But he's doing it, and as people are doing it. 317 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: It's almost unforgivable how bad Blue Origin has handled this situation, 318 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 1: because see Musk has shown the methodology, which is build 319 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 1: lots of them, fly him, crash him, correct the problem, 320 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: fly the next one. Now, that's not a business strategy 321 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,679 Speaker 1: that Lockheed Martin could adopt. They do not have the 322 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: internal reserves. They have to do their work on contract money. 323 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: But it certainly is strategy that Basos could have adopted. 324 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: And the fact that they haven't even tried to fly 325 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: New Blend. He should set up an assembly line, start 326 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,239 Speaker 1: building new blends. The first one will crash, figure out 327 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: what they got wrong, fly the next one, and get 328 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 1: it right by the fourth or fifth one. Musk has 329 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 1: shown that this is how you get it done, and 330 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: Basos just has not learned from that perspective. You emphasize 331 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,479 Speaker 1: the Chinese as the real competitor to Musk. How do 332 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: you assess the Chinese program? Well, the Chinese are coming 333 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: on strong. People got to wake up here. Most Americans 334 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 1: are generation think of China as part of the third 335 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 1: World or developing country or something. That's not how the 336 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 1: Chinese think of themselves at all. They think of themselves 337 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 1: as the center of world civilization, which had a brief 338 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: period in which they dripped in a century of humiliation, 339 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: as they call it. But now they're coming back to 340 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: claim their rightful place. And this is an incredibly talented 341 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 1: people and energetic and we're going to have to up 342 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 1: our game if we want to stay ahead. You founded 343 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: the Mars Society, I think twenty three years ago. Are 344 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 1: you more optimistic today? And if people wanted to join 345 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,199 Speaker 1: the Mars Society, how would they do it? Well? I 346 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: am more optimistic, even though as I say it's taken longer. 347 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: Is we could have been on Mars, you know, twenty 348 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: years ago, but we didn't. Now, NASA, I must give 349 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 1: them credit. Their robotic Mars exploration program has been a 350 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: bang up success. You know. The administrators did a great 351 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,880 Speaker 1: deal to set in motion a very effective Mars robotic 352 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 1: exploration program. Or seeing that now and rewriting the case 353 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: for Mars, I had an updated version twenty eleven. The 354 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 1: only thing I had to update was the robotic exploration part. 355 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: There had been no accomplishments in the human exploration zone 356 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 1: between nineteen eighty six and two eleven. They've been plenty 357 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,719 Speaker 1: with the robotic probs now since two thousand and eleven. 358 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: The big change is SpaceX Mussas starship is going to 359 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: reach orbit this year. I doubt it. It might reach 360 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 1: Orber next year, but certainly by the year after that. 361 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 1: And so look at twenty twenty four, starships are gonna 362 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 1: be flying regularly to orbit. We're gonna have an election, 363 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 1: somebody's gonna be elected president in twenty twenty four. And 364 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:27,120 Speaker 1: it starships a fly to orbit with one hundred ton payloads, 365 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: you know, for a total ten million dollars launch costs 366 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: or something. They're going to turn to their advisors and say, 367 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: can I have people on Mars by the end of 368 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 1: my second term? And the answer is going to be yes, 369 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: And they're gonna say, well, it's going to cost a 370 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: trillion dollars. No, we could probably do it within NASA's 371 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: existing budget. He's got the main piece here of the 372 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: transportation system. It needs some other things. We need surface power, 373 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 1: need surface nuclear power reactors. That's really not something for 374 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: SpaceX because it involves control materials. It involves a lot 375 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: of other technologies. Mars spacesuits, Mars vehicle's machines for making 376 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: propel out of the Martian atmosphere. These are all things 377 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: that need to be part of it, and they're hard 378 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 1: for SpaceX develop because they're not really commercial. See, he 379 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: can develop Starship because Starship is going to make him 380 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: moon in the commercial market, but you know, a Mars 381 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: spacesuit not so much. So we're gonna have a public 382 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: private partnership. Let's meet him halfway. He's bringing the main piece, 383 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: we'll bring all the little pieces. Let's do it together. 384 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: Let's have people on Mars by twenty three and we 385 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: can once again astound the world with what free people 386 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 1: can do. I had some hope, which I think will 387 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: probably not pan out with the new administration, but that 388 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: they might actually have made the Moon by late twenty 389 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: four early twenty five. My guess now is that'll be 390 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: pushed back a couple of years, but there will still 391 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: be a project underway. What are your expectations or hopes 392 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 1: for the Biden administration in space? Well, Biden, you know, 393 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: hasn't been particularly a supporter of the space priming, hasn't 394 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: been an enemy of the space program. I think it's 395 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: quite fortunate that you have a Democratic president it's Biden, 396 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 1: rather than say Bernie Sanders or something with people who 397 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: have noted antipathy to not only the space program as 398 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 1: a diversion of funds from things they would rather spend 399 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: money on, but as representing an ethos that they reject, 400 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 1: which is the pioneer spirit. Biden appears to be willing 401 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:43,959 Speaker 1: to move forward with the Artemis program on autopilot. I 402 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 1: think that NASA's decision to award the human landing contract 403 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: to SpaceX was a very good decision. In fact, I'm 404 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 1: amazed by it because all bets were on the so 405 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: called national team led by Blue War gen including Lockey, 406 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: Martin Northur Grumman and some others, which had designed a 407 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 1: three stage expendable lander which conformed exactly to the thing 408 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 1: that had been on the NASA public planning charts. It 409 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 1: represented a very limited capability in artemis mission perhaps once 410 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:23,920 Speaker 1: a year to the Moon at enormous cost the human 411 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 1: landing system version of Starship. First of all, I mean, 412 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: it's totally counterintuitive. It involves accepting a concept of spaceflight 413 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: operations that is totally novel. This is not even an 414 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: optimal application to Starship. Putting Starship in lunar orbit and 415 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: refueling it with lots of tanker flights from Earth and 416 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: then landing it and coming back. It would take ten 417 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: tanker flights to refuel it if it's stationed in low orbit, 418 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: or fourteen if it's stationed at the gateway. The gateway 419 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: actually makes the mission harder. But here's must what he's 420 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 1: saying is, here's my plan. Okay, I'm going to have 421 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 1: dozens of these starships. Let's say have two dozen from 422 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 1: twenty four and they each fly once a month. Well 423 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: that's twenty four times welve, that's like two hundred and 424 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 1: sixty launches a year compared to Shuttle which average four 425 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,639 Speaker 1: and maxim and was ten launches a year in or 426 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 1: if you're launching hundreds of starships a year because you've 427 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,159 Speaker 1: got twenty or thirty of them and they're each launching 428 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: once a month, then refueling starships in lunar orbit with 429 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 1: ten or fourteen tanker flights becomes easy, as opposed to 430 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 1: the previous Artemis concept, which was one SLS which for 431 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 1: some reason can only launch once a year, even though 432 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: the Shuttle could at least do four and supplemented by 433 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 1: four expendable launch vehicles, each bringing pieces of an expendable 434 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 1: lunar lander to the gateway. Now it has some implications 435 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:58,680 Speaker 1: beyond adopting this vision of spaceflight where spaceflights becoming like 436 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,959 Speaker 1: jet travel, where hundreds of flights out of every airport 437 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: every day. It has implications. For instance, if you're using 438 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,360 Speaker 1: starship as in a scent vehicle from the Moon, it 439 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: puts a tremendous premium on producing lunar propellants, precisely because 440 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 1: the starship is so heavy. A starship weighs one hundred tons. 441 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 1: If you're using a little expendable lunar lander that weighs 442 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 1: two tons, then making it's a scent propellant on the Moon. 443 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: It's nice to have, it's not terribly important. But if 444 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,919 Speaker 1: you have a vehicle that weighs one hundred tons and 445 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,439 Speaker 1: you need a hundred tons of propellant to lift it 446 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 1: off the Moon, then it's an enormously advantageous to make 447 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 1: propellant on the surface of the Moon. Now we've known 448 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,199 Speaker 1: for a long time that we can make oxygen on 449 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: the surface of the Moon, because lunar rocks are basically 450 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,120 Speaker 1: half oxygen by weight. They're all ionoxide or silicon oxide 451 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 1: or aluminum oxide or something. But now we know that 452 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 1: at the pole there's water, which means we can make 453 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 1: hydrogen and oxygen. Either way, it's tremendously advantageous. So now 454 00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 1: space exploration has married its help as a critical capability 455 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: to space development, which was not the case with the 456 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 1: small expendable lander. What you do on the Moon is 457 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 1: not terribly important. You're just visiting here. What you do 458 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,880 Speaker 1: on the Moon is important. And of course the whole 459 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 1: concept of starship, which runs on methane oxygen propellant, is 460 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 1: based on my Mars direct plan of making methane oxygen 461 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 1: propellant on the surface of Mars, because Mars has got 462 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 1: water and carbon dioxide and would get two with him 463 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:32,640 Speaker 1: plus power make propellant. And by the way, the other 464 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,159 Speaker 1: thing that goes along with making propellant is the power 465 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 1: to make propellant. So this is going to make space 466 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 1: nuclear power much more important than it's been so far. Now, 467 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: if you need power in quantity, which you do, you 468 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,119 Speaker 1: want to start developing space nuclear reactors starting with hundreds 469 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 1: of kilowats going to the megawont range. Did you always 470 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: assume that the Moon would be a necessary stepping stone 471 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: to Mars. No, that hasn't been my assumption. And actually 472 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 1: I don't think the Moon isn't necessary stepping stone to Mars. 473 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 1: But I think that by becoming space faring we get both. 474 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 1: That is, it's like becoming seafaring. It's not that this 475 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 1: continent is necessarily stepping stone to that continent. But if 476 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: you become seafaring, you can visit the whole world. And 477 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: with Starship we become space faring, and we'll be able 478 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 1: to do the Moon and Mars and the asteroids, and 479 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,399 Speaker 1: build giant space telescopes and do lots of other projects, 480 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,159 Speaker 1: orbital research labs, you know, all these different things that 481 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: people talk about, and surface to surface travel on Earth. 482 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: You know, for the past three thousand years people have 483 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 1: made money on the Earth's ocean, some by actually trying 484 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 1: to extract wealth from the ocean, like by fishing, for example, 485 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: but a much bigger business has been using the ocean 486 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 1: as a global medium for transport. Ocean is a low 487 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 1: drag medium, collecting your report on Earth, that's where the 488 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 1: real money has been. Well, space is an ocean surrounding 489 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 1: the Earth of zero drag, and by traveling through space, 490 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 1: you can go point to point on Earth anywhere to 491 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,320 Speaker 1: anywhere in less than an hour, and go Los Angeles 492 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 1: to Sydney in less than an hour. And of course 493 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: this kind of travel using expendable launch vehicles is absurd, 494 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 1: it's not even worth talking about. But if you have 495 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 1: reusable launch vehicles like Starship, this becomes a thing. Last 496 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: year about there were a hundred satellite launches in the 497 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 1: whole world, and SpaceX I think got about twenty six 498 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: of them, which is to say the majority of the 499 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 1: free world launches. And with falcons making it cheaper, pretty 500 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 1: soon they'll be two hundred launches a year. But you know, 501 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 1: there's hundreds of intercontinental flights every hour and that's a 502 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: much bigger market. And if starship can enter that market, 503 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 1: then these things, Yes, there'll be hundreds thousands of starships produced, 504 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 1: not to space expot by its competitors. A single starship 505 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,480 Speaker 1: would carry what two hundred people on a point to 506 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 1: point flight. Well, they talk about one hundred a sort 507 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 1: of super first class. Well look at this. I went 508 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 1: through the numbers. And if you only had one hundred passengers, 509 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 1: and maybe they could make it two hundred because they're 510 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 1: not going to have to stay in very long. But 511 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 1: if you had a hundred passengers and you are traveling 512 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: Los Angeles to Sydney in the starship, and if the 513 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 1: total cost of the flight was five times the propellant cost, 514 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 1: which is typical of airlines, you'd probably have to sell 515 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 1: seats for twenty thousand dollars a seat. Now, I have 516 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 1: to tell you, nude, I've never spent twenty thousand dollars 517 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: on an airplane ticket. It's not my class. But there 518 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 1: are people who do. And that is the cost of 519 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 1: a first class ticket from Los Angeles to Sydney right now. 520 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 1: And those people still have to spend eighteen hours on 521 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 1: the plane instead of getting there in less than an 522 00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 1: hour and having half an hour zero G. Somebody wants 523 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 1: calculated that it is the same amount of energy to 524 00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:07,960 Speaker 1: go from Los Angeles to Sydney and to go into 525 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: Urban I get the same amount of energy going to 526 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: Los Angeles and Sydney and coming back and as going 527 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 1: to Urbain. Okay, So when you start talking about costs, 528 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 1: obviously rockets are more expensive to build, right, but the 529 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 1: other one you can amortize over twenty years. You're in 530 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 1: a very different game than you used to be. Let 531 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 1: me ask what's something that isn't discussed very much anymore. 532 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,239 Speaker 1: Sputnik was one of the great awakenings. I'd lady been 533 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,920 Speaker 1: reading Asimov and Heinlan and then along comes Sputnik, And 534 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,240 Speaker 1: so I was growing up in the eighth and ninth 535 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: grade reading missiles and rockets. And in that period, the 536 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 1: great competitor was the Silver Union, and they were actually 537 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 1: pretty good in space, but largely now they've just sort 538 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 1: of become an also run. What's your estimate of the 539 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 1: Russian space program? Well, the Russians still have a significant 540 00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 1: space capability. They certainly have a lot of technically excellent people. 541 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 1: They have some people who know how to do a 542 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: lot of stuff. They don't have much money, if you 543 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 1: want to know. I think that China is in the 544 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: process of acquiring Russian and if I was a Russian, 545 00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: I'd be very worried about that. I mean literally acquiring 546 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 1: the country, not just a space program. That's right. I 547 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: think that this is a decision that Russians are going 548 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,280 Speaker 1: to have to deal with. Okay, they can either be 549 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,400 Speaker 1: linked to the West or they can become part of China. 550 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 1: And while Russian ideas on human liberty are not as 551 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 1: expansive as ours are, they're considerably more expansive than those 552 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,320 Speaker 1: in China. And I don't think having the government tell 553 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 1: you how many children you can have would even have 554 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: gone over had Stolen's Russia. So I think people might 555 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 1: want to think, what is the consequence of Putin's policy 556 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 1: of isolating Russia from the worst That's interesting. I do 557 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 1: think the greatest threat we face would be a Russian 558 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 1: Chinese alliance, and I think it'd be very hard for 559 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 1: us to cope with it. I think we could cope 560 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 1: with it, but we have to unchain ourselves Okay, people say, 561 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: how are we going to stop China. Well, you're not 562 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 1: going to stop China. If you want to win this race, 563 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 1: you got to start running. We got to become better. 564 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 1: We have to unleach the kind of potential that we 565 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 1: can unreach. We've been tying ourselves up with bureaucracy. You know, 566 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 1: in the nineteen sixties, it used to take four years 567 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 1: to build a nuclear power plant in the United States. 568 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 1: Now it takes sixteen. Well in China, but also South Korea, 569 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 1: it still takes four. People think the nuclear industry is 570 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 1: ancient history. Well it's not. It's just been stopped here 571 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 1: and in Europe. But there's four hundred and fifty nuclear 572 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: power plants in the world today. China has plants to 573 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 1: build another four hundred and fifty domestically by the year 574 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 1: twenty fifty, and there's markets for hundreds more of them 575 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,719 Speaker 1: in the developing sector, and we're not even a serious 576 00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: competitor for that. We need to become competitive again. When 577 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 1: you look down the road, to what extent is the 578 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,279 Speaker 1: failure of our education system to prepare enough people who 579 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,759 Speaker 1: can do math and can do physics and chemistry. To 580 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 1: what extent are we're disarming ourselves. I think we're still 581 00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:23,399 Speaker 1: quite capable of producing excellent scientists and engineers. I mean, 582 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,920 Speaker 1: I think that's the one part of universities that we 583 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:30,120 Speaker 1: need American universities that remain excellent. But I think it 584 00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,759 Speaker 1: would be good if we had a bold space program 585 00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,840 Speaker 1: that would inspire many more young people to want to 586 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,839 Speaker 1: go into science and there. And one thing I learned 587 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,879 Speaker 1: as a teacher is that anybody can teach kids who 588 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,800 Speaker 1: want to learn, and nobody can teach kids who do it. 589 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,440 Speaker 1: And it doesn't matter whether you've got the LCD projector 590 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 1: or working with chalk. It matters whether the kids want 591 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,360 Speaker 1: to learn. If you have kids who are excited about 592 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,160 Speaker 1: the adventure of science, if you have a government that 593 00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: has made science the great adventure by committing a bold 594 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 1: space proportion as we had in the sixties. You know, 595 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: in the sixties, we've doubled a number of science graduates 596 00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,319 Speaker 1: we had at every level, high school, college, PhD, and 597 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: in some fields tripled it. And we've benefited from that 598 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:15,800 Speaker 1: intellectual capital ever since. That's what an aggressive space program 599 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:17,680 Speaker 1: would do for us today. You know, if you want 600 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 1: to improve science education to America, you're not going to 601 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,000 Speaker 1: do it by more standardized tests, to do it by 602 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:26,080 Speaker 1: inspiring youth. Because youth loves adventure. Let's make science the 603 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,400 Speaker 1: great adventure. Well, I want to thank you. This has 604 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 1: been fascinating. You've not only written about it and talked 605 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,880 Speaker 1: about it, but you've lived it. Well, you're doing is 606 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,799 Speaker 1: very important as an act of citizenship. We will get 607 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,440 Speaker 1: to Mars, and part of the reason we'll get to 608 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 1: Mars will be because of Robert Zubran. So it's a 609 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 1: great honor that you would do this chat with me. Well, 610 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 1: it's been a great honor to talk with you again. 611 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 1: Newte thank you to my guest doctor Robert Zubran. You 612 00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 1: can read more about his books and get a link 613 00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,920 Speaker 1: to his recent article the Profound Potential of Elon Musk's 614 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:07,359 Speaker 1: new Rocket. An aerospace engineer explains why spacexit Starship will 615 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:12,080 Speaker 1: change everything on our show page at newtsworld dot com. 616 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,319 Speaker 1: Newtsworld is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our 617 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 1: executive producer is Debbie Myers, our producer is Garnsey Slim, 618 00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,720 Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. Artwork for the show 619 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,919 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team 620 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,399 Speaker 1: at Gingwich three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I 621 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us 622 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,760 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 623 00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 624 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: Newtsworld can sign up from my three free weekly columns 625 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:52,440 Speaker 1: at Gingwish three sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. 626 00:36:52,880 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 1: This is Newtsworld