1
00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:03,200
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

2
00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,480
Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey P, joep z Apia

3
00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:08,119
Speaker 1: and this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead

4
00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:11,360
Speaker 1: to the props for week twelve and the NFL. And

5
00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:13,960
Speaker 1: to help me do it, the Welsh, the Andrew Erickson

6
00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:16,720
Speaker 1: and of course meet Joey P. We got touchdown calls

7
00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,759
Speaker 1: to make, We've got dreams to come true just for you.

8
00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 1: We've got it all here and of course we want

9
00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:23,880
Speaker 1: you to be with us for all of it. So

10
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,080
Speaker 1: subscribe to the YouTube channel and don't forget to ring

11
00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:27,880
Speaker 1: the belt to the ghost ding so you never miss

12
00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,240
Speaker 1: a piece of content on the channel. Download the Betting

13
00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:32,720
Speaker 1: Pros app. We're gonna use some of those prop bet

14
00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,720
Speaker 1: cheat sheet tools here on the show today, gentlemen, before

15
00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,400
Speaker 1: we begin Thursday night football is in the books. Ericson

16
00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,199
Speaker 1: you and I talked about it before the show, but

17
00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,320
Speaker 1: Welsh came into the room a little later. Welsh, are

18
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,960
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills officially done? Has the window closed on

19
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,479
Speaker 1: the Bills dynasty that never was?

20
00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:53,760
Speaker 2: Ooh, the never dynasty? Is the dynasty not the dynasty

21
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,200
Speaker 2: that it never was? I don't think the windows closed.

22
00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:58,960
Speaker 2: They've still got Josh Allen. I think when you've got

23
00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,200
Speaker 2: Josh Allen and Jamie Cook, it's still there. It's just,

24
00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,760
Speaker 2: you know, it's like like creeping open a little bit,

25
00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:07,840
Speaker 2: you know. I mean, it's not locked, it's not completely done.

26
00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:08,320
Speaker 1: I just don't.

27
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:09,959
Speaker 2: I don't look at that team and think that they're

28
00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,479
Speaker 2: completely devoid of being able to do anything. But boy,

29
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,840
Speaker 2: their offensive line was horrific sure last time. I mean,

30
00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,039
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how they're gonna be able

31
00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,080
Speaker 2: to do anything with that offensive line right now. But

32
00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:21,480
Speaker 2: I don't know. I kind of think they're always in

33
00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:23,960
Speaker 2: it with Josh Allen, just like the Chiefs. Chiefs are

34
00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,800
Speaker 2: playing horrible. Patrick Mahomes has just been turning the ball

35
00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,039
Speaker 2: over at least turnover worthy throws and stuff, and it's

36
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,720
Speaker 2: like they're still in it, you know, five and five,

37
00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 2: they're still in it.

38
00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:34,319
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I got more faith in the

39
00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,440
Speaker 1: Chiefs this year, to be honest with you, than I

40
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,440
Speaker 1: do the Buffalo Bills Ericson. I got much respect to

41
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,160
Speaker 1: the Houston Texas defense. Those guys are dogs. They're fun

42
00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:43,960
Speaker 1: to watch, and if you like defense, I do. And

43
00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,360
Speaker 1: Obogman does. Also Texans are a fun watch, but yeah,

44
00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,440
Speaker 1: watch it hates hates defense, all offense all the time.

45
00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,680
Speaker 1: Everybody go deep. But Ericson, they takeaway from Thursday night

46
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:55,720
Speaker 1: before we look ahead to the weekend.

47
00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,280
Speaker 3: All is right in the AFC. They put up a

48
00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,240
Speaker 3: graphic of the AFC play off picture and at the

49
00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,240
Speaker 3: top Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Broncos. This is the AFC. I

50
00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,920
Speaker 3: remember before Patrick Mahomee showed up, like, these are the teams.

51
00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,040
Speaker 3: There was a Peyton Manning went in the division. Ben

52
00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,760
Speaker 3: Rothsburg went in the division Denver, winning a division that

53
00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,400
Speaker 3: nobody else wanted to win before Patrick mahomes showed up.

54
00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,560
Speaker 3: So yeah, all was right in the AFC once again,

55
00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,239
Speaker 3: with the Bills trailing the Patriots.

56
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,560
Speaker 1: All right, Ericson, you were four and one last week

57
00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:25,320
Speaker 1: on the Best Bet Show. But the inverse on the

58
00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,760
Speaker 1: Prop show, Welsh didn't want you to be alone, so

59
00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,760
Speaker 1: he also nopes had one to five. So I want

60
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,160
Speaker 1: you guys to stop being together so much.

61
00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,120
Speaker 2: Okay, I want to And you know what I decided

62
00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,639
Speaker 2: be great Instead, I decided I would love to get

63
00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,000
Speaker 2: this stat in. I was like, we're gonna go hair

64
00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 2: again because I went hat last week and I was horrible.

65
00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:45,920
Speaker 2: So I'm like, ooh, we're done with Maybe that hat

66
00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,240
Speaker 2: I'm done with forever. But maybe it's an overall hat thing.

67
00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,760
Speaker 2: So we went full hair. I probably need to go

68
00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,520
Speaker 2: back and look and see what my record is hat

69
00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,519
Speaker 2: versus hair so far this season. But we got to

70
00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:00,560
Speaker 2: turn it around some way because Bully good.

71
00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,360
Speaker 1: Well, it's okay everyone. I still gave you a touchdown calls,

72
00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,360
Speaker 1: So I'm up to twelve right now. Ericson's got eleven.

73
00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,160
Speaker 1: Welsh is at ten, so still pretty good there on

74
00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:08,720
Speaker 1: the TDS, so we'll give you those at the end

75
00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,760
Speaker 1: of the show. All right, Welsh, Let's start with Seattle.

76
00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 1: They've got a match up this week against the Tennessee Titans.

77
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,480
Speaker 1: Heavily favored in this one. So how does that affect

78
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,639
Speaker 1: some of the players there that you want to wager on. Yeah.

79
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,200
Speaker 2: I one thing I did not do after this bad

80
00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,280
Speaker 2: week was be like, I'm not gonna go turn it

81
00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,000
Speaker 2: around and get a bunch of chalky players. Nope, I'm

82
00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,120
Speaker 2: just locked into where I want to go. I'm not

83
00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,920
Speaker 2: taking big, big name players. I'm trying to find the

84
00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,679
Speaker 2: best Edges and aj Barner feels like one of those.

85
00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take his receiving yards over at twenty five

86
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,119
Speaker 2: point five over. Barner has gone over this in four

87
00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,440
Speaker 2: of his last seven games, specifically last week where he

88
00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:47,240
Speaker 2: saw ten eleven targets caught ten balls going up against

89
00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:51,000
Speaker 2: this Titans defense since Week two. They have given up

90
00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,680
Speaker 2: this receiving yard prop to opposing tight ends every single

91
00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,400
Speaker 2: week since Week two, so week one is the only

92
00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,320
Speaker 2: time they did not do that. Their defense ranks twenty

93
00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,920
Speaker 2: seventh in no sorry, they are also averaging that's the

94
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,800
Speaker 2: next stat. They're averaging five catches forty seven yards to

95
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,280
Speaker 2: opposing tight ends on the year, so those work well.

96
00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,480
Speaker 2: And this is a PFF stat that I like. AJ

97
00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,240
Speaker 2: Barner ranks fourth among tight ends and receiving yards from

98
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:18,839
Speaker 2: the inline alignments. Titans defense ranks twenty seventh in receiving

99
00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:22,320
Speaker 2: yards allowed to inline tight ends this season, so he's

100
00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,080
Speaker 2: been getting his targets. The Titans are giving this up

101
00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:29,360
Speaker 2: on average a lot, and this works really well. I

102
00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,200
Speaker 2: love AJ Barner. I kind of wanted to get him

103
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,440
Speaker 2: in the touchdown calls just because he also plays the

104
00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,719
Speaker 2: push push quarterback there. But we're gonna go receiving yards

105
00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:39,400
Speaker 2: over for aj Barner to kick it off.

106
00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,160
Speaker 1: Okay, Ericson, I know you and I all week have

107
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,599
Speaker 1: talked about this game, the Detroit Lions and the New

108
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,360
Speaker 1: York Giants. If things go south for us, I'm telling

109
00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,159
Speaker 1: you right now, Monday is going to be miserable for

110
00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 1: me and Ericson. We are heavily invested, and I know

111
00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,080
Speaker 1: one player we both like is Jamison Williams, So let's

112
00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,919
Speaker 1: talk about how we want to approach him in Week twelve.

113
00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,360
Speaker 3: Well, I do like our Lions odds cause it is

114
00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:04,000
Speaker 3: going to be Jameis Winston starting, so like going to

115
00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,719
Speaker 3: a very turnover prone quarterback, but going to the Lions

116
00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,280
Speaker 3: offensive pieces. This was part of one of my parlays

117
00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,640
Speaker 3: for this week, Jameson Williams going over sixty three and

118
00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:16,080
Speaker 3: a half rushing and receiving yards. This might be on

119
00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,160
Speaker 3: my betting guard every single week from here on out

120
00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:20,719
Speaker 3: because all the lines have is a bunch of Dome

121
00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,520
Speaker 3: games coming up. Samuela Porta is out with a back injury.

122
00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,160
Speaker 3: He's not coming back this season, so that slots in

123
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,520
Speaker 3: Jamis Williams and Alman ros Saint Brown as the top

124
00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:30,600
Speaker 3: two targets. And an offense is going to be playing

125
00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,640
Speaker 3: in dome games every single week until Week eighteen. So

126
00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,320
Speaker 3: Jamison Williams, he's had a bigger role since the team's

127
00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,359
Speaker 3: by week we've seen his target rate jump dramatically because

128
00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 3: he's no longer just running clear out routes like he's

129
00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,240
Speaker 3: running more stuff underneath crossers and that's able to maximize

130
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,120
Speaker 3: his elite speed. He's gone over sixty five or sixty

131
00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,240
Speaker 3: three and a half rushing and receiving yards four of

132
00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:52,719
Speaker 3: his last five games. He's facing the New York Giants

133
00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,960
Speaker 3: this week, who've allowed the fifth most receiving yards to

134
00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,039
Speaker 3: wide receivers. They're also twenty fifth worst in terms of

135
00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,960
Speaker 3: facing play action passes. James Williams is just going to

136
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,840
Speaker 3: continue to cook. So every single week, I think the

137
00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:05,760
Speaker 3: jmail over needs to be on your card.

138
00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,120
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, I like it. Feel good about it.

139
00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,320
Speaker 1: Indoorcat Jared Goff is coming back. Everyone.

140
00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:13,120
Speaker 2: I would have put it on mine, but Erickson for

141
00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,240
Speaker 2: the second straight week got to the sheet before me

142
00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,520
Speaker 2: gets the worm bab and I showed him that all season.

143
00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:20,479
Speaker 2: It was ten weeks of me first, and then he's

144
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,000
Speaker 2: gotten to it last two weeks but I would have

145
00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:23,960
Speaker 2: one hundred percent put this on. So well, I love that.

146
00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,560
Speaker 1: I text you next week before I put the show out,

147
00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:28,520
Speaker 1: and then you can get ahead, you can get jump

148
00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,440
Speaker 1: on it. I'll give you an eta thirty seconds. I'll

149
00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,039
Speaker 1: let you boys fight it out. It'll be like running man.

150
00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,400
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a good time. Next up here, Jamar

151
00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 1: Chase out for the week because of a suspension because

152
00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,520
Speaker 1: well you just don't spit on people in class. That'll

153
00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,400
Speaker 1: get you sent right home, right to the principal's office,

154
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,440
Speaker 1: then home for the whole week, and that's where Jamar

155
00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,120
Speaker 1: Chase is going to stay. So actually on the FP

156
00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,480
Speaker 1: live stream, we're just talking about Yoshi vas and how

157
00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,360
Speaker 1: he might have to get a little bit more involved

158
00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:52,880
Speaker 1: in this game. So Welsh, what does that mean for

159
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:53,680
Speaker 1: his prop market?

160
00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:55,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked, We've talked about it all week long

161
00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,320
Speaker 2: on the Wide Receiver Rank show ericson Fitzie and I

162
00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,400
Speaker 2: and you know, getting him into the thirties. We have

163
00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,440
Speaker 2: to assume there's going to be an uptick in volume

164
00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,800
Speaker 2: due to Spitgate, and it'll be t Higgins and then

165
00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,039
Speaker 2: going to Andre Yoshivas is gonna be the number two

166
00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,960
Speaker 2: here I looked at both sides. We always do our

167
00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,880
Speaker 2: receptions versus receiving yards battle receiving yards. It's closing in

168
00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,920
Speaker 2: on forty. The receptions are giving you plus money at

169
00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:20,400
Speaker 2: three and a half, so that's where I went. I

170
00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 2: went three point five over receptions at plus money, right

171
00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,000
Speaker 2: around close to one plus one point fifteen. Three times

172
00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,480
Speaker 2: this season when he has seen five, he has seen

173
00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,040
Speaker 2: five or more targets, and in two of those he

174
00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,120
Speaker 2: has got five balls each. He's caught five balls in

175
00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,400
Speaker 2: each one of those. Higgins is the number two wide

176
00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:41,040
Speaker 2: receiver to Chase, who, by the way, has been targeted

177
00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,480
Speaker 2: more than any wide receiver has. The eighth has seen

178
00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:46,960
Speaker 2: eight or more targets in four of his last five games,

179
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,680
Speaker 2: so that didn't make sense. Chase number one targeted receiver,

180
00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,240
Speaker 2: Higgins has seen a boatload of targets as the number two.

181
00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 2: If we get burrowback, that makes this even better. But

182
00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:58,320
Speaker 2: either quarterback is slinging the ball and Yoshi vas is

183
00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,760
Speaker 2: going to see an increase in his target It's most

184
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,160
Speaker 2: projections specifically, and I look over at like PFF, they

185
00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,760
Speaker 2: have the lean to this around three point seven. So

186
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,440
Speaker 2: I love the for marker here for him to catch

187
00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:11,440
Speaker 2: a bunch. I think they're going to be slinging the ball.

188
00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,320
Speaker 2: It can't just go to t Higgins. T Higgins is

189
00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,480
Speaker 2: still a pretty solid bet, obviously the Christian Gonzales effect.

190
00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:19,640
Speaker 2: But Yoshibas has done this when he has seen an

191
00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,280
Speaker 2: increase in targets during the year. He's going to see

192
00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,480
Speaker 2: it in this game. So give me four receptions at

193
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:25,760
Speaker 2: plus money for Yoshibas.

194
00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 1: As of right now recording this, we're still waiting for

195
00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,000
Speaker 1: word on Joe Burrow right now. They need quote unquote

196
00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,440
Speaker 1: additional time to decide whether or not he's really ready

197
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,880
Speaker 1: to go. But he did practice with the ones on Thursday,

198
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,199
Speaker 1: so that's a good indication. So we'll see. Maybe we

199
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,040
Speaker 1: do get Joe Burrow back. But either way, we're still

200
00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,080
Speaker 1: going to have Chase Brown working a lot in this

201
00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,480
Speaker 1: game potentially. Now here's the thing. When it comes to

202
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,079
Speaker 1: the Patriots defense, they've been very good this year, very good,

203
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,400
Speaker 1: specifically against the run. So Andrew Erickson, you are the undertaker.

204
00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:54,760
Speaker 1: Are we taking under numbers here on Chase Brown? Are

205
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:55,400
Speaker 1: we going over?

206
00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,280
Speaker 3: We are going over on Chase Brown. Ninety and a

207
00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,320
Speaker 3: half rushing and receiving yard Chase Brown has turned into

208
00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,559
Speaker 3: an absolute workhorse that we drafted him as in the

209
00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,160
Speaker 3: second round of Fantasy this year. The last couple of weeks,

210
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:10,040
Speaker 3: last four games, four straight over one hundred yards from scrimmage.

211
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,280
Speaker 3: I'm expecting him to see as much volume as he

212
00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,120
Speaker 3: can handle because Samaji Pieren is out yet again. And yes,

213
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,320
Speaker 3: Patriots defense has been really tough on running backs as rushers,

214
00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,320
Speaker 3: not as good against receivers, and we know Chase Brown

215
00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 3: has dual usage. He's been catching a ton of passes

216
00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,800
Speaker 3: out of the backfield from Joe Flacco and I would

217
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,120
Speaker 3: expect that not to change. If it's Joe Burrow coming

218
00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,679
Speaker 3: off a foot injury, we'll see how mobile he is

219
00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:32,880
Speaker 3: behind the offensive line for the Bengals. So either way,

220
00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:34,720
Speaker 3: I think Chase bar is still going to get peppered

221
00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:36,720
Speaker 3: with a lot of targets out of the backfield. And

222
00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,280
Speaker 3: to the Patriots run defense, I don't think it's going

223
00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,120
Speaker 3: to be nearly as good because Milton Williams is not

224
00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:42,960
Speaker 3: going to be playing in this game. He was placed

225
00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:44,880
Speaker 3: on end reserve after he got hurt against the Jets,

226
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,679
Speaker 3: So I think that's a huge loss to the interior

227
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 3: of the new England defense. So I think Chase Brown's

228
00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:49,960
Speaker 3: going to be a little bit more effective than most

229
00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,040
Speaker 3: people are giving him credit for as a rusher. And

230
00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,920
Speaker 3: we know he's explosive in the passing game as well.

231
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,360
Speaker 3: So four straight's gonna be five straight after Sunday.

232
00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,920
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it, everybody, next up here pick

233
00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,280
Speaker 1: number three for the boys. Before we get there, just

234
00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,200
Speaker 1: want to shout out our sponsor of the show, and

235
00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,240
Speaker 1: that's hard Rock Bet. Download the hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

236
00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,320
Speaker 1: app today and if you bet five bucks you can

237
00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:10,920
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets. They've been

238
00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,680
Speaker 1: running this promo all year long. Now is the time

239
00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,319
Speaker 1: stop waiting. You've got college football, you got NFL, you've

240
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,360
Speaker 1: got college hoops, you got NBA, you got NHL. What

241
00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,440
Speaker 1: more do you want? You should want to have the

242
00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,920
Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app on your phone. It's legal

243
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:24,959
Speaker 1: in Florida too, the only one that you can get there.

244
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,440
Speaker 1: More states are coming online all the time. They've got

245
00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,240
Speaker 1: the profit boosts, they've got the rewards, they got everything

246
00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,079
Speaker 1: going on there. So again, download it today five bucks.

247
00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:34,719
Speaker 1: If you win, you get one hundred and fifty in

248
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,079
Speaker 1: bonus bets plus all your winnings only at hard Rock

249
00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,240
Speaker 1: Bet payble and bonus bets, not a cash offer offered

250
00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,240
Speaker 1: by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by

251
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,600
Speaker 1: the Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC. In other states. Must

252
00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,079
Speaker 1: be twenty one and physically president in Arizona, Colorado, and Florida, Illinois, Indiana,

253
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,480
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and

254
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,199
Speaker 1: conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight

255
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,720
Speaker 1: eight eight Admit it in Indiana. If you are somebody

256
00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 1: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call

257
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,959
Speaker 1: one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called

258
00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:04,000
Speaker 1: one hundred gambler and a Zona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Welsh.

259
00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:05,360
Speaker 1: What do you have up next for the people? For

260
00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,240
Speaker 1: your third pick of the week On the prop department.

261
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,640
Speaker 2: We're jumping into the quarterback space and in the fantasy

262
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,080
Speaker 2: world he's actually a top ten quarterback this week. Just

263
00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:18,199
Speaker 2: came off of a record setting game of completions against

264
00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,560
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. Jacoby Brissett, and we are going

265
00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,439
Speaker 2: to play passing touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brissett has

266
00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,559
Speaker 2: actually done this in five straight games, so every single

267
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,440
Speaker 2: games a starter, he has thrown two or more touchdowns.

268
00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:34,480
Speaker 2: The Jags have allowed two passing touchdowns in four of

269
00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,800
Speaker 2: the last five games, and on average are giving up

270
00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,520
Speaker 2: a little over two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the

271
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,680
Speaker 2: entire year. Trey McBride is going to eat in this obviously.

272
00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 2: I love Michael Wilson. Brissette's kind of a wildcarp The

273
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,120
Speaker 2: running game is also a wild card here, So I

274
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,719
Speaker 2: really like this setup defensive matchup to Brissette. He's been

275
00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:55,760
Speaker 2: throwing him, they've been giving him up. Give me two

276
00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,960
Speaker 2: touchdowns for Jacoby Brissett, and I really should have put

277
00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,720
Speaker 2: Trey McBride on here. Locke Tray McBride down for a

278
00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:02,640
Speaker 2: touchdown as well.

279
00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:07,400
Speaker 1: Okay. Also making the first start of the NFL this

280
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,440
Speaker 1: week is Shador Sanders. So Andrew Erickson. What does that

281
00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,520
Speaker 1: mean for the Cleveland Browns. I know we talked about

282
00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,360
Speaker 1: them potentially winning this game against the Las Vegas Raiders,

283
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:16,240
Speaker 1: So what does that mean for sure?

284
00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:18,280
Speaker 2: This has to be an undert right.

285
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,560
Speaker 3: Nope, no, no, because I'm a slave to the numbers.

286
00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:21,800
Speaker 1: Here.

287
00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:23,520
Speaker 3: This is a five star bet coming in the prop

288
00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,360
Speaker 3: bet cheap cheap because fifteen and a half completions for

289
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,199
Speaker 3: an NFL quarterback, this is too low of a number

290
00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,320
Speaker 3: the Jets. The Jets offense this season has been averaging

291
00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,560
Speaker 3: seventeen completions per game, So you're telling me that Shudur

292
00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,400
Speaker 3: can't even be better than justin fields Tyro Taylor combined

293
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,520
Speaker 3: in one game against the Las Vegas Raiders in a dome. Look,

294
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,080
Speaker 3: I think that this number is being way too heavily

295
00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,520
Speaker 3: weighed on based on a half of Shadar Sanders when

296
00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,160
Speaker 3: he didn't prepare to start that game at all. He's

297
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,559
Speaker 3: working with the ones all week to play the Las

298
00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,400
Speaker 3: Vegas Raiders. He's going to get over fifteen and a

299
00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,240
Speaker 3: half completions. Dylan Gabriel was over this number four of

300
00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:00,680
Speaker 3: his five games as a starter this year. The Raiders

301
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,400
Speaker 3: are allowing over twenty two completions per game. Only one

302
00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,439
Speaker 3: quarterback all year has failed to hit sixteen completions against

303
00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 3: the Raiders. So yeah, last week he had four completions.

304
00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,720
Speaker 3: It was terrible, It was awful. But I think that

305
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,679
Speaker 3: you're getting value on this number because of how bad

306
00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,360
Speaker 3: that that second half was for Suter Sanders, and you know,

307
00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:20,760
Speaker 3: if he completes that touchdown pass, I'm sure that the

308
00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:22,400
Speaker 3: narrative around Shotter is way different.

309
00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,320
Speaker 1: I agree with it. I said that same thing if

310
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:25,200
Speaker 1: that gets completed.

311
00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,160
Speaker 3: So I just think we're getting insane value here at

312
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,040
Speaker 3: fifteen and a half completions. Again, like I said, five

313
00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:32,520
Speaker 3: star bet per the prop bet cheat sheet slave to

314
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,240
Speaker 3: the numbers. So I'm taking the over.

315
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:35,920
Speaker 1: And if you want to see the prop bet cheat

316
00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:37,960
Speaker 1: sheet again, it's available for free betting pros dot com

317
00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,360
Speaker 1: slash props, or you can just download the Betting pros app.

318
00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,800
Speaker 1: There you'll see all the projections against all of the

319
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,160
Speaker 1: prop set numbers there and then the best odds you're

320
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,000
Speaker 1: going to find. So sink your sports books for free

321
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:50,240
Speaker 1: on the Betting pros app that wea. You can utilize

322
00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:51,920
Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat sheet there. And this is one

323
00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:54,680
Speaker 1: of the Again I'm with Andrew here, I think it

324
00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:55,959
Speaker 1: is a little bit of a different narrative. A couple

325
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:57,920
Speaker 1: drops down there, Like I'm not stating Shore look good,

326
00:13:58,320 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 1: but there are a couple of moments where the team

327
00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:01,440
Speaker 1: didn't help them out in a full week of practice

328
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,160
Speaker 1: with the ones I think could go a long way.

329
00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:04,679
Speaker 1: He's better than Dylan Gabriel.

330
00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,760
Speaker 2: By the way, I stared at the Browns just all

331
00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,559
Speaker 2: their receiving AIRD props as well. If you believe this,

332
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,840
Speaker 2: if you want to have positive correlation, Fannin's number is low.

333
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,880
Speaker 2: He had that twenty five yard or two Fan and

334
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:21,040
Speaker 2: Jerry Judy's reception prop I think it's plus money at

335
00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 2: four reception. So if you believe Shador is going to

336
00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,480
Speaker 2: have a solid game with completions, both Fannin and Judy

337
00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,120
Speaker 2: are actually really good positive correlations that you could tie in.

338
00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,200
Speaker 2: And I almost put Fan. I really wanted to put

339
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,600
Speaker 2: Fan in on this list. I'm just terrified of Shador.

340
00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,840
Speaker 2: But I do like both of those and I stared

341
00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:38,920
Speaker 2: at them for a long time.

342
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,160
Speaker 1: All Right, let's see what else Welsh is staring at here.

343
00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:46,160
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at AJ Brown. Because Welsh, I

344
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 1: think we're in the minority here. I think both of

345
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:50,920
Speaker 1: us think that this is a good situation for AJ Brown,

346
00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:52,880
Speaker 1: and we haven't said that a lot now this year,

347
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,720
Speaker 1: and a lot has worked out for AJ Brown. But

348
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 1: the numbers all the way down to fifty seven and

349
00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,200
Speaker 1: a half. I'm in on this one. So are you

350
00:14:59,200 --> 00:14:59,840
Speaker 1: you tell the people?

351
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, this was one that like the week started now

352
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,000
Speaker 2: is just like AJ Brown, Dallas Cowboys, Like we're gonna

353
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,400
Speaker 2: find a way. We're gonna find a way to justify this.

354
00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 2: There's a couple things that really don't In his first meeting,

355
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 2: he absolutely got shut out, which I think is going

356
00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,440
Speaker 2: to bounce back. He has hit this in two of

357
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 2: his last four games. This receiving yard prop which isn't

358
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,200
Speaker 2: like the most resounding cell, but last week he did

359
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,960
Speaker 2: have eleven targets seven catches. Was not able to get

360
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,680
Speaker 2: the ball deep. But that's where things start to change

361
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 2: here because Cowboys defense have been pretty straightforward. It's a turnstile.

362
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 2: They're averaging the third most receiving yards given up in

363
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:38,320
Speaker 2: the NFL. An interesting stat from PFF, Jalen Hurtz is

364
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 2: ranking third in completions of twenty yards or more downfield.

365
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:46,640
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys defense ranks thirty first in deep completions allowed

366
00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,400
Speaker 2: in the NFL. So those are big chunk plays. That's

367
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,360
Speaker 2: what I'm looking for out of AJ Brown. Fantasy pros

368
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:56,520
Speaker 2: projections absolutely love this has him at sixty nine yards nice.

369
00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 2: Other projections like PFF are in the ballpark. On the positive,

370
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:02,920
Speaker 2: like you know, three or four yard cushion, I think

371
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:06,320
Speaker 2: this is a fantastic defensive matchup for it. I'm going

372
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,320
Speaker 2: to talk about him in the touchdown range. I know

373
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,880
Speaker 2: Deante Smith kind of got you know, shut out and

374
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:12,920
Speaker 2: then obviously because I bet on him, Maybe I shouldn't

375
00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 2: bet on Eagles wide receivers now that I think about it,

376
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,080
Speaker 2: that this will be like it could be the DeVante

377
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 2: Smith game. But I think this is the potential for

378
00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 2: the Eagles to really get the ball in the air

379
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,040
Speaker 2: because of how the Cowboys are in their secondary, some

380
00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,560
Speaker 2: play action, some big plays and just those big chunk plays.

381
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 2: I could get this out of two catches from aj Brown.

382
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 2: So I really like this receiving yard number fifty seven

383
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 2: point five over now.

384
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,400
Speaker 1: Staying in this game as I was researching from stuff

385
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 1: this week, Look, philadelph Eagles have been terrific. They've given

386
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 1: out the second few his yards to tight ends this

387
00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 1: year and just one touchdown. So what does that mean

388
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,560
Speaker 1: that Jake Ferguson has in store for him this week?

389
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 1: Erickson not a lot.

390
00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 3: Of production, Jack Ferguson, I'm not expecting a big game

391
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 3: from him in any capacity. Now his number is not

392
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 3: that high thirty and a half receiving yards, but he's

393
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 3: been under and four of seven games at this number

394
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,000
Speaker 3: with CD Lamb back in the lineup, including three of

395
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,199
Speaker 3: his last four games. The passing game for Dallas has

396
00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 3: really focused on the top two wideouts, which I don't

397
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,240
Speaker 3: blame Dak, Like these are the guys who want to

398
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 3: throw the football to. They're dynamic after the catch. And

399
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,920
Speaker 3: the way that the matchup against the Eagles, Quenyang Mitchell

400
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,960
Speaker 3: can only cover one guy at a time, so I

401
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 3: think Dak is okay, who's Queenya Mitchell not covering? I'm

402
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 3: gonna throw it to that guy. So expecting Pickens and

403
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:22,680
Speaker 3: the Lamb to eat here like they have the last

404
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,439
Speaker 3: couple of weeks and Ferguson kind of phase out, especially

405
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 3: against the Eagles. He's zeroing three his last three matchups

406
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,240
Speaker 3: at thirty and a half receiving yards versut the Eagles,

407
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 3: so they've been able to get him out of the

408
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,439
Speaker 3: offensive game plan. And like you said at the top, Joe,

409
00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,640
Speaker 3: Eagles allowing thirty under three yards per game to tight end,

410
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,280
Speaker 3: So Jake Ferguson yat it. Get its a low number

411
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 3: but I don't think he's hitting it this week.

412
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 1: I don't know either, my friend, he's a fade for

413
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:47,680
Speaker 1: me this week in a big way. Okay, well, one

414
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 1: more pick for everybody to make and then onto the touchdown.

415
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 1: So Welsh, let's talk about Breese Hall. This game for

416
00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:55,360
Speaker 1: the Jets, the receiving yards is fifteen and a half.

417
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 1: Are we going over or under that number?

418
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:00,119
Speaker 2: We are going over? This used to be like a

419
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 2: lock that where Brese Hall was getting the ball out

420
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,679
Speaker 2: of the backfield receiving all year long, and then you know,

421
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,600
Speaker 2: justin fields continues to happen. So now we get tyron

422
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,680
Speaker 2: ed at quarterback Tyrod opportunity for the ball to start

423
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,160
Speaker 2: moving down the field a bit more, which is a positive.

424
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:15,800
Speaker 2: I was looking at his checkdown percentage around eight and

425
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 2: a half percent, which definitely not at the top of

426
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 2: the league, but it's like it's like at median or

427
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,639
Speaker 2: a little bit above average, which I really like. In

428
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 2: the receiving game for Briess though, the Ravens present a

429
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,720
Speaker 2: really good receiving matchup grade according to PFF, and they

430
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:31,840
Speaker 2: seem kind of like what I talked about in that

431
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 2: Cowboys game is this defense seems to give up big

432
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 2: chunk plays to running backs catching out of the backfield.

433
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,160
Speaker 2: They're on average giving up around four catches per game

434
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 2: to running backs, but this is for over thirty three

435
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 2: yards seven and a half yards per reception given up

436
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 2: to running backs. So I think this line's in really

437
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 2: really well for Breess Hall to get involved in the game. Obviously,

438
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 2: if they're going to be playing from behind in spots

439
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 2: and not running the ball, you want to get the

440
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,600
Speaker 2: ball in Breese's hands. I think Tyrod will do that.

441
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 2: We're gonna go old school with Breefe Hall getting back

442
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 2: into the receiving yard games. And I might even pop

443
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,119
Speaker 2: this up a little bit into like the twenty five's

444
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 2: or something like that. But I love this at fifteen

445
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 2: point five over for Briefe Hall receiving yards.

446
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 1: Now, look, we've seen, or I guess we'll see what

447
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor will do, but we have seen a lot

448
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 1: of what Brian Thomas hasn't done this year. It's been

449
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:19,760
Speaker 1: kind of disappointing.

450
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:20,119
Speaker 2: Andrew.

451
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 1: It's you were the Brian Thomas wisper last year. Okay,

452
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,439
Speaker 1: it's been being polite man. Well, it's interesting because you

453
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,200
Speaker 1: have been here. Look last year you were the guy

454
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 1: leading the charge of Brian Thomas when I didn't hear

455
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 1: anybody else really leading that at all. And you are

456
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 1: one hundred percent right. And this year, Brian Thomas, just

457
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: in this Liam Cohen offense, for whatever reason, things have

458
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 1: not worked out. Health has been an issue too. So

459
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 1: is there a way for us to profit off all

460
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: the bad news surrounding him this year?

461
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 3: In Week twelve, take beyonder under four and a half

462
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 3: receptions for Brian Thomas Junior. He could get ten targets

463
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 3: and we're not even sure if he's going to catch

464
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 3: more than half of them because he's had problems holding

465
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 3: on to the football, like you said, dealing with a

466
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 3: shoulder injury. He's come off an ankle sprain injury. If

467
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 3: he comes back and plays this week, So look we

468
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 3: saw last week Ricky Piersoll missed a bunch of time,

469
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 3: comes back, not involved in the offense whatsoever. So there

470
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 3: are so many outs with this. With Brian Thomas Junior

471
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 3: taking the under, He's only gone over this number in

472
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 3: two of his eight games played this season. And when

473
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,199
Speaker 3: you go back to why he was so good his

474
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 3: rookie year, I mean it's because Mac Jones like that

475
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 3: was the connection that was like dialed in because his

476
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 3: last ten games with Trevor Lawrence, he's gone over the

477
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: number twice, so he's hitting me under an eighty percent

478
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 3: hit rate, going for five catches in this offense. So

479
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 3: this is another five star bet and I absolutely love it.

480
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,199
Speaker 3: Almost fell out of a chair when I saw this

481
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 3: number and it was a plus money when I was

482
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 3: able to get it, So I still think you're getting

483
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 3: great value on it. Look, I hate to label anything's

484
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 3: about my lock of the week because that's a guaranteed

485
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 3: play it's going to buy.

486
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 1: But this is my lock of the week. Brian okay R.

487
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 1: Don't say it too loud. It's a lowercase L for

488
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,680
Speaker 1: the lock of the week. Let's get onto the touchdown calls.

489
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 1: And remember if you want help with the touchdown calls

490
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: in your week twelve and hit up the Touchdown score Report.

491
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:06,360
Speaker 1: It is at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown, and I'll

492
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 1: give you the latest and eight time touchdown stats to

493
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 1: prop bet odds and projections to he'll identify the very

494
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 1: best in any time touchdown bets. I'm gonna go with

495
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 1: a guy who's been red hot who's trying to get

496
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: the bag, and that's George Pickens. I think the Dallas

497
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 1: Cowboys are gonna beat the Eagles. That's my hot take

498
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 1: of the week. It's my upset special. We'll see if

499
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: I'm right or wrong. Plus one sixty for George Pickens

500
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 1: to get in the end zone, and I think he's

501
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 1: going to yet again this week. And then surprise, surprise,

502
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 1: I'm where Ericson is on, Jamison Williams and Welsh too.

503
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 1: I mean, let's be honest, we're all in on this

504
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 1: one plus one fifty five. That's where I'm going for

505
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 1: my two touchdown calls. Two receivers. A little risky. You

506
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: think I'd go with one of the running backs, but

507
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 1: I like the value on Williams and Pickens there over

508
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 1: plus one fifty for both of those guys. Wells, where

509
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:49,760
Speaker 1: are you going for your touchdown calls for Week twelve?

510
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 2: I am also weighted in the wide receivers. I usually

511
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 2: love to sit in the tight end world, but my

512
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 2: two wide receivers first up, I mentioned aj Brown. Cowboys

513
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: have given up five touchdowns to wide receivers over the

514
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: last three weeks, and seventeen touchdowns to wide receivers on

515
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: the year so far. So I love AJ Brown in

516
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 2: a touchdown spot here and this is a higher plus

517
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 2: money and that was plus one thirty five. By the way,

518
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 2: this play is over four to one and I love it.

519
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 2: I think I might like it more than the AJ

520
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 2: Brown one. I'm going with Xavier Legett, ninth most in

521
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 2: zone targets in the NFL. I think you saw two

522
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 2: last week. They are trying to get him the ball.

523
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 2: The forty nine ers secondary is trash. They're going to

524
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 2: have a hyper focus in the red zone if they're there.

525
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 2: Of course on Tetoroa McMillan and Bryce Shump loves to

526
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 2: throw to Xavier Ligette and the forty arews can't stop anyone.

527
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 2: So at over four to one on a guy that

528
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 2: is top ten in the NFL and end zone targets, yep,

529
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 2: Xavier Ligett. That's one of my favorite touchdown calls this week.

530
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: All right, Andrew Erickson, give me two more guys. They're

531
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: gonna find paydirt hit the goal line.

532
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 3: In Week twelve, Hunter Henry anytime touchdown plus one forty.

533
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 3: He's facing the Cincinnati Bengals, who we all know are

534
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 3: the worst defense in the NFL against guarding tight ends,

535
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 3: and Henter Henry was so close to scoring a touchdown

536
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 3: last week against the New York Jets. Drake May was

537
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 3: dropping back to throw it to him and it got

538
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 3: tipped and Hunter Henny was not able to secure the touchdown.

539
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 3: But he will write the wrong from Thursday Night Football

540
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 3: and score against the Cincinnati Bengals here from Drake May.

541
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 3: So I like him plus one forty t Higgins plus

542
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 3: twenty plus one to twenty five in the same game.

543
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 3: To Higgins has scored nine straight home games, five of

544
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 3: his last six games played. There is no Jamar Chase

545
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 3: t Higgins, even if it's getting even if it's chrischickgan

546
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 3: Zales on him in shadow coverage. Well, Ti Higgins can

547
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 3: win fifty to fifty balls even in the red zone.

548
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 3: So whether it's Burrow, whether it's Flacco, I think they're

549
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 3: going to go to him in the red zone. So

550
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 3: I like his odds to score here. And then my

551
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 3: bonus one Taysom Hill plus three twenty the Saints our

552
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 3: favorites at home last time. Tasom Hill faced the Falcons

553
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 3: last season two rushing touchdowns, so they've been talking up

554
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 3: Taysom Hill a lot this week. The offensive coordinator is

555
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 3: talking about Taysom Hill. The head coach is talking about

556
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 3: Taysom Hill. He's back from his injury, full go. He's

557
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 3: so versatile. We love using this guy in the red zone.

558
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 3: So although everyone wants Alvin Kamara to bounce back in

559
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 3: a big way, don't be surprised if it's Taysom Hill

560
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 3: with the vulture touchdowns this week.

561
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: Here you go, Taysom Hill action. I'm sure that I'll

562
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: throw things way out of whack there, but a good

563
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: number on that one as well. All right, everybody, So

564
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: make sure if you haven't already, download the Betting Pros

565
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 1: app and the hard Rock bet Sportsbook app to tie

566
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 1: those two things together. Sing all your sportsbooks for free

567
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: and let the tools help you get the most out

568
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 1: of Week twelve, and subscribe to the YouTube channel. That'll

569
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 1: do it for us. But the story of the game

570
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 1: goes on for the well should Andrew ericson. I'm Joey p.

571
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids.

572
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

573
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

574
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify.

575
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

576
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

577
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros

578
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:01,159
Speaker 2: St