Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from
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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Lori Kelvisina
Speaker 2: joins us this morning with all of our good work.
Speaker 2: Lori Kelvisina, of course with RBC Laurie. I'm gonna I've
Speaker 2: just cut to the chase, many would say, in this
Speaker 2: odd rebound, this ten day hillacious horror, and through that
Speaker 2: there's been a massive shortcover on small caps. Are you
Speaker 2: committed to small caps this morning? Hi?
Speaker 3: Tom? So, Look, you know, I hate to say it,
Speaker 3: but I still feel pretty neutral on the small caps. Now,
Speaker 3: that's in regards to a relative call versus large. I
Speaker 3: do think the market is at large small caps included
Speaker 3: probably did see the lows for the pullback we experienced
Speaker 3: on August fifth. But when I think about relative performance, look,
Speaker 3: I think one of the things that's really been pushing
Speaker 3: people into small caps, and that's been generating some of
Speaker 3: these short term out performance pops is when the absolute
Speaker 3: valuations of the Russell two thousand or cheap, so that
Speaker 3: weighted media and forward pe is below average. And guess what,
Speaker 3: as we updated the weekly at the end of last week,
Speaker 3: it was sitting right smack dab on top of the average.
Speaker 3: So we don't have, you know, sort of the same
Speaker 3: kind of compelling valuation set up. Similarly, if I look
Speaker 3: at positioning on the CFTC data, we recently pulled up
Speaker 3: to three year highs kind of post COVID hives, and
Speaker 3: we've started to ease back from those, but they don't
Speaker 3: look under owned at this point in time. And then
Speaker 3: I layer in the economy, I neither think we're about
Speaker 3: to tip into a recession that's usually a really big
Speaker 3: springboard for small caps. And I also don't really see
Speaker 3: a hot economy. I see kind of a you know,
Speaker 3: a good, solid, fine economy, But small caps really either
Speaker 3: need the springboard coming out of recession where you get
Speaker 3: really fast growth rates off the bottom, or you need
Speaker 3: a really kind of hot, above average economy to outperform it.
Speaker 3: I just don't have that right.
Speaker 2: I have fourteen questions of Paul jump in here. I
Speaker 2: just I just don't get it.
Speaker 4: Hey, Lourie, I mean, we're pretty much through the earnings
Speaker 4: season here, We've got some retailers are reporting this week.
Speaker 4: What did you take away from this earning cycle? Good, bad,
Speaker 4: or and different?
Speaker 3: So I was pretty solid, you know, I do think
Speaker 3: in some ways it got ignored with all these sort
Speaker 3: of macro gyrations, you know, sort of debates over the
Speaker 3: consumer and the jobs, and then the yen carry trade unwined,
Speaker 3: which I know we'd all kind of like to forget
Speaker 3: right now. But I do think if you looked at
Speaker 3: the stats, we saw an uptick on the percent beating
Speaker 3: consensus earnings estimates. The revenue beats also picked up. The
Speaker 3: earnings beats kept out pacing the sales beats, and that
Speaker 3: just means companies are doing a good job of, you know,
Speaker 3: kind of defying gravity so to speak, and really managing margins.
Speaker 3: So that was all good.
Speaker 2: I thought the.
Speaker 3: Commentary was pretty balanced. You know, there was maybe a
Speaker 3: bit more negativity on the consumer than what we saw
Speaker 3: last reporting season, But I came away with the impression
Speaker 3: that while the pressures from rates and inflation, consumers are
Speaker 3: reacting to that in a more profound way. Companies went
Speaker 3: out of their way to sort of say, you know,
Speaker 3: we think the consumer is still healthy and that they're
Speaker 3: managing through. So I thought it was I thought it
Speaker 3: was pretty solid, to be honest.
Speaker 4: Solid enough to support the valuation where we are in
Speaker 4: this market. How do you guys think about valuation of
Speaker 4: this market these days?
Speaker 3: So we look at valuations a lot of different ways.
Speaker 3: If I'm looking at, you know, sort of a forward pe,
Speaker 3: what I really like to do is separate the top
Speaker 3: ten names and look at a bymarket cap and look
Speaker 3: at a medium pe there that's still trading around twenty
Speaker 3: six times. It got as low as twenty four, It
Speaker 3: was up round thirty two one point. Doesn't look great,
Speaker 3: but it's off the boil. If I look at, you know,
Speaker 3: sort of the rest of the market, we've been sort of,
Speaker 3: you know, really trading closely around kind of the seventeen
Speaker 3: times mark. The average is around, you know, sort of
Speaker 3: I think around like fifteen or so, so we're a
Speaker 3: bit above average, but we're way below pass peak. So
Speaker 3: I think valuations, you know, look pretty good for the
Speaker 3: rest of the market. If I look at a trailing
Speaker 3: PE analysis, that's where I kind of come away with
Speaker 3: the idea valuations are full. And I'll spare you all
Speaker 3: the details on the model, but I basically take inflation
Speaker 3: and interest rates in the FED, do regressions with with
Speaker 3: trailing pees going back to the sixties, and we figure
Speaker 3: out where should the PE be at the end of
Speaker 3: the year. If you think X, y and Z is
Speaker 3: going to happen on rates and inflation, fifty six hundred
Speaker 3: is already baking in, you know, sort of three or
Speaker 3: four FED cuts and PCE down around two. So I
Speaker 3: feel like we've already baked in a lot of good
Speaker 3: news on the rates and inflation front, know, on the
Speaker 3: s and P multiple itself in.
Speaker 2: That regression equation, how do you plug in and presumed
Speaker 2: lower real rate the oomph the economy gets from a
Speaker 2: lower real yield.
Speaker 3: So you know, we've got kind of all the bits
Speaker 3: and pieces there, right, We've got the ten year, We've
Speaker 3: got the FED funds, we've got the inflation rate. I'll
Speaker 3: tell you Tom and this, I may lose some of
Speaker 3: your viewers right now, so I apologize if we do that.
Speaker 3: But I did experiment with this model at one point
Speaker 3: in time, having GDP baked into the model. I finally,
Speaker 3: you know, sort of threw it out of the model.
Speaker 3: It didn't have a huge impact on the outcome. But
Speaker 3: I found GDP behaves differently relative to interest rates in
Speaker 3: different decades. So inflation, the FED ten year yields pretty
Speaker 3: much always inversely correlated GDP, sometimes inverse, sometimes positive. I
Speaker 3: don't want to mess with that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Lurie, thank you too much, math Lori, Kelvis, thank
Speaker 2: you so much. Kelsey Burou joins US executive director Fixed
Speaker 2: Income and JP Morgan thrilled with us today your arch
Speaker 2: call with Bob Michael is yields are coming in tenure yield.
Speaker 2: You know you're talking below. I mean Ian Lincoln's out
Speaker 2: there and the other strategists with calls. But the basic
Speaker 2: ideas we come down, Paul. I'm looking at the corporate
Speaker 2: chart yield the worst back to vulgar. It's the great moderation,
Speaker 2: the great disinflation. We're out three standard deviations right now, folks,
Speaker 2: which means we've never been here, and a regression to
Speaker 2: the mean Kelsey Barrow, just get your price up yield down?
Speaker 2: Is that all JP Morgan's talking about is a regression
Speaker 2: to a great moderation?
Speaker 5: Mean, So I'm looking at the same chart you you
Speaker 5: are in terms of investment grade deals right now, five
Speaker 5: percent right a yield to maturity on the on the
Speaker 5: investment grade index right now. You know, I think what's
Speaker 5: amazing about that? And that's come down pretty significantly. You know,
Speaker 5: from the highs was above six percent. That's actually still
Speaker 5: in the eightieth percentile of the last ten years.
Speaker 2: On the show, we call that three standard deviations right,
Speaker 2: another way of saying it.
Speaker 5: So, you know, I think the big question people are
Speaker 5: asking now is, you know, have we missed the move?
Speaker 5: Because you know, we're now thirteen months from the last
Speaker 5: rate hike and if you look at one to five
Speaker 5: year credit for example, that's about two hundred basis points
Speaker 5: ahead of cash right now and the Fed hasn't even
Speaker 5: started cutting rates. But that we do also know that
Speaker 5: the market is pricing in significant amount of rate cuts,
Speaker 5: eight to nine rate cuts. So you know the question
Speaker 5: is what's the risk reward from here? Now there's two
Speaker 5: tails that I'm thinking about. One is the reacceleration risk.
Speaker 5: One is the risk that we go into a harder landing.
Speaker 5: I think what the data has been telling us more recently.
Speaker 5: You know, we can debate about the risk of recession,
Speaker 5: the risk of rolling over. The data is very mixed
Speaker 5: on that. But the one place where it's really clear
Speaker 5: is that the reacceleration tail risk has come down quite
Speaker 5: a lot. And that's really the big risk for bond investors.
Speaker 5: And that's the good news for fixed income is that
Speaker 5: we've really been able to credibly reduce that tail risk
Speaker 5: of a reacceleration in inflation.
Speaker 4: So if I'm the FED, I go out to Jackson
Speaker 4: Hole with all the you know, the monkey MUCKs end
Speaker 4: of this week, including mister Tom Keen.
Speaker 6: What do I say?
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think you really need to say
Speaker 5: that much. I mean, it's really interesting you think about
Speaker 5: the price action this year, and it's really not been
Speaker 5: driven by the FED speak. It's been driven by the data.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 5: The market has reacted to the data. When the data
Speaker 5: suggests that there's risk of upside on inflation, the market
Speaker 5: reduces the amount of rate cuts for this year. When
Speaker 5: that unwinds, the market prices in more rate cuts.
Speaker 7: So I actually don't think that.
Speaker 5: Chair Palal needs to say that much. That being said, though,
Speaker 5: I think it should be clear that if you look
Speaker 5: at simple policy rules, they would suggest, and this is
Speaker 5: regardless of your view on the labor market, simple policy
Speaker 5: rules would suggest that the appropriate policy rate right now
Speaker 5: is probably about one hundred basis points lower than it
Speaker 5: is today. And that's just onflation coming down alone. Because
Speaker 5: the Fed, they don't see the Fed funds rate static
Speaker 5: for the last thirteen months. They actually see the real
Speaker 5: Fed funds rate has risen one hundred and fifty basis
Speaker 5: points in the last thirteen months.
Speaker 6: That's equivalent to.
Speaker 5: Five more rate hikes. So policy has been getting incrementally
Speaker 5: tighter for the last year, and they recognize that it's
Speaker 5: time to kind of start to move away from that regime.
Speaker 4: So when the Fed begins to cut rates, let's say
Speaker 4: it's September, as the market discounting, how did they do it?
Speaker 4: They do it every meeting, every other meeting, twenty five
Speaker 4: basis points fifty basis points to their front load.
Speaker 6: How are you guys thinking about that?
Speaker 5: So I think for now it's still a gradual adjustment.
Speaker 5: So you could plug in those simple tailor rules on
Speaker 5: your Bloomberg term all and see that. Okay, you know
Speaker 5: the policy rate maybe should be closer to three and
Speaker 5: a half to four. But they're not going to do
Speaker 5: that instantaneously, right I don't. I actually think that they
Speaker 5: are more likely to go twenty five basis points per
Speaker 5: meeting maybe for the next few meetings and then switched
Speaker 5: to quarterly. But you know that's all assuming status quo,
Speaker 5: and we don't know where the economies going to go next.
Speaker 2: Crystal Ball, do you have a crystal Ball in your office?
Speaker 7: No, we don't have a Cristal the new.
Speaker 6: Office, Tom and to go into the new offices, the.
Speaker 2: New offices of a crystal ball. Yep, what. I got
Speaker 2: a huge response to this out of YouTube. The basic
Speaker 2: The basic idea here is if I get Abob Michael
Speaker 2: Kelsey Barrow Market, and I don't get down to reversion
Speaker 2: to the mean, I just get down to a long
Speaker 2: term trend one standard deviation above the mean. I have
Speaker 2: a total return vehicle at JP Morgan. Are you investing
Speaker 2: in fixed income for an assumed total return or are
Speaker 2: you clipping a coupon?
Speaker 5: Well, so far, it's been a little bit of both,
Speaker 5: is what we've gotten so far. Right, you got a
Speaker 5: little bit of total return more recently and then more
Speaker 5: more so, the majority of what you're vetting is clipping
Speaker 5: the coupon. But I do think you know, over time
Speaker 5: you are going to see that fixed income is going
Speaker 5: to continue to outperform cash as the FED continues and
Speaker 5: starts that easing cycle.
Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, to me, this is huge. Nobody has
Speaker 2: in their minds fixed income is a total the giant
Speaker 2: damn fuss at Luma's sales. Nobody's thinking as a damn manner.
Speaker 6: Yep, I'm looking at Kelsey.
Speaker 4: I end going a Bloomberg terminal Bloomberg Index browser the
Speaker 4: best returning fixed income space.
Speaker 6: US corporate high Yield. Where did that come from? I
Speaker 6: thought we were having a recession. I mean, how's high
Speaker 6: gild doing so well?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 5: So, I mean, I think really that's that's a combination
Speaker 5: of the fact that the economy has continued to do well,
Speaker 5: and that's really a story of clipping coupons. The index
Speaker 5: with the highest yields has performed with the greatest total
Speaker 5: return so far, and that's because spreads have been relatively stable.
Speaker 5: So if you think about what our core thesis was
Speaker 5: for this year in terms of base case for investing,
Speaker 5: it was soft landing and the key part of that
Speaker 5: was inflation coming down. You need inflation to come down
Speaker 5: for any of these things to work right in the
Speaker 5: box market with about that, you can't have you can't
Speaker 5: have any of it.
Speaker 2: What's for really telling you?
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think what we're seeing in the
Speaker 5: data is that the disinflation is becoming much more broad
Speaker 5: based and outside really two categories left in inflation, which
Speaker 5: is a shelter and auto insurance. Pretty much the rest
Speaker 5: of the CPI basket is running like it was pre COVID.
Speaker 2: One final question, because you've got to throw you out
Speaker 2: because of Detroit Tiger's at the Yankees, Kelsey. The heart
Speaker 2: of the matter is what are people doing with their
Speaker 2: money right now? Is any of the cash being deplored
Speaker 2: into the Michael Barrel world or same thing? Are people
Speaker 2: extending duration?
Speaker 5: I think they are, and I think the ways you
Speaker 5: can see it you can see it in fun flows,
Speaker 5: but I think you could also see it in the
Speaker 5: continued demand for corporate credit. You know, supply has really
Speaker 5: been pulled forward this year ahead of the elections.
Speaker 2: And that's like the fourth time we've heard football.
Speaker 6: Yeah, people.
Speaker 5: And people are very interested in extending and you know,
Speaker 5: snapping up that credit because companies in general, they were
Speaker 5: preparing for a recession.
Speaker 3: The recession didn't happen.
Speaker 5: But the good news is is that their balance sheets
Speaker 5: are in a very good place.
Speaker 2: Help me here, why is it big Tech? They make
Speaker 2: one phone call. They don't call James Diamond, They called
Speaker 2: Bob Michael. Let's be honest, they're going to make Big
Speaker 2: Tech's going to make one phone call and they're going
Speaker 2: to do gazillions of debt issuance. And how many people
Speaker 2: does JP More gonna have to call to get that
Speaker 2: deal done?
Speaker 4: Like for people, well, they just call upstairs the devestment
Speaker 4: manager people and then they say the demand.
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a frenzy if we
Speaker 2: get some form of reversion to the Great moderation. Do
Speaker 2: you see that? Yeah?
Speaker 5: I mean, and you think about it. You know, you've
Speaker 5: already seen institutional investors, you know, exten duration. But this
Speaker 5: has happened without an actual cut, right, Like money market
Speaker 5: rates have not moved yet. But I think when they move,
Speaker 5: you're going to see a lot more people start to know.
Speaker 2: Okay, Kelsey Barrow, thank you. So I'm a terrific brief
Speaker 2: Kelsey Barrow working with Bob Mike on the team at
Speaker 2: fixed income at a small bank on Park Evan. I
Speaker 2: greatly appreciate her attendance. We're doing audible here with Henrietta Trece.
Speaker 2: Thrilled that she's with us today. She's been a huge
Speaker 2: help to Bloomberg's surveillance and identifying the trends. Henry, I
Speaker 2: usually start with some you know, mumbo jumbo in the
Speaker 2: zeitgeist in that, but I think we have to address
Speaker 2: the Chicago protests. And the difference is in nineteen sixty eight,
Speaker 2: after the Ted offensive, there were clear, visible The word
Speaker 2: I use is substantial divisions within America. To you is
Speaker 2: a grizzled pro How narrow is the Palestinian Israeli debate
Speaker 2: in the Palestinian protests talked about in Chicago? It's not
Speaker 2: nineteen sixty eight, is it.
Speaker 1: It's definitely not nineteen sixty eight. Thanks for having me, Tom.
Speaker 1: I think the first thing to note is that the
Speaker 1: protest is going to be about a mile long.
Speaker 7: They have moved it away from the Convention. I'm sure
Speaker 7: you know.
Speaker 1: I know that the Democrats have anticipated these protests. I
Speaker 1: think that the biggest area of concern for them is
Speaker 1: the state of Michigan, which there is a big population
Speaker 1: about two three hundred thousand people who are even in
Speaker 1: the range of focusing on this the way that the
Speaker 1: protests would suggest. And in general, this is a really
Speaker 1: small subset of the Democratic voter base, and I don't
Speaker 1: think that it's going to move into in terms of
Speaker 1: polling or ultimate.
Speaker 7: Election outcomes, but it is there. It is present.
Speaker 1: Kama Harris making clear that she stands with Israel but
Speaker 1: doesn't have the same baggage that the Biden administration has
Speaker 1: on this, and I think that's going to help her.
Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, the reason I bring this up, besides that,
Speaker 2: you know, the analog back to nineteen sixty eight and
Speaker 2: all is I'm looking at outside adults like Q Research
Speaker 2: Trust or the great work at Cook Political Report. What
Speaker 2: Henrietta does it Vida Partners, Greg Juro at Bloomberg and
Speaker 2: is she mentions Michigan's unique Okay, But other than that,
Speaker 2: I can't find a critical mass of protest in America.
Speaker 2: I mean, we can protest the Red Sox.
Speaker 6: Middle relief exactly.
Speaker 4: That's got the biggest say Yankees losing interesting Henrietta, what
Speaker 4: would be or what will be or what could be
Speaker 4: a success for the Democrats this week in Chicago.
Speaker 1: Honestly, a continuation of the success is maybe talking about
Speaker 1: the more popular part of Kamalhiris's economic plan. Get that
Speaker 1: out there into the ether for voters who don't have
Speaker 1: a strong sense of her policy. To the extent that
Speaker 1: any concerns about her policy positions are a problem for voters,
Speaker 1: We've seen in the Poli data so far is that
Speaker 1: she's risen anywhere between five to eight points in all
Speaker 1: of these swing states. So voters aren't really concerned about
Speaker 1: the policy, and they're very primed to be opposed to
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, which is why he's lost every election since
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. So I think getting a little bit of
Speaker 1: a message about out on policy but not too much
Speaker 1: is probably the strategy keeping the good energy going. President
Speaker 1: Biden will speak tonight, We'll keep forward with that. I
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of folks waiting to see where
Speaker 1: Michelle Obama comes out, but Barack Obama will be there, Hillary,
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton. It's just a big Rah Rah, and I
Speaker 1: expect that polling will continue to reflect the boost that
Speaker 1: either party gets from a DNC or an RNC, which
Speaker 1: is two to three points, and that point basis, once
Speaker 1: it gets tacked on the polls next week, is going
Speaker 1: to be sufficient to put her outside of the margin
Speaker 1: of error in all these states. And that's a big
Speaker 1: problem for Trump right now.
Speaker 4: How concerned is Donald Trump? And I guess more importantly
Speaker 4: the Republican Party at.
Speaker 1: This point very concerned from House members who were hoping
Speaker 1: to pick up all ten of the toss up races
Speaker 1: in the House of Representatives, the senators that are not
Speaker 1: in Ohio and Montana are really concerned. And then at
Speaker 1: the top of the ticket, I think you can see
Speaker 1: it from the change up that they're doing at the
Speaker 1: campaign staff. I think maybe they finally seized on a
Speaker 1: campaign message trying to tie kaval Harris to her economic
Speaker 1: policies that she rolled out on Friday. But one thing
Speaker 1: I'd really point out there, and where I've spending some
Speaker 1: time digging into the data, is that when inflation was
Speaker 1: nine percent a month later, Democrats went on to keep
Speaker 1: House Republicans to the lowest majority wins of any majority
Speaker 1: party excuse to be a minority party in one hundred years.
Speaker 1: So I don't know that the inflation stuff is going
Speaker 1: to beat out all the rest of it.
Speaker 7: And that's what history has suggested. In the midterms and
Speaker 7: the twenty twenty general.
Speaker 2: What do we vote? I mean, I know we don't
Speaker 2: vote on foreign policy, but do we vote on border debates,
Speaker 2: immigration debates? Do you buy the cliche it's all about economics.
Speaker 1: Man, It's really tough because twenty twenty was not about economics.
Speaker 1: I think that Biden narrowly won because of COVID and
Speaker 1: because of Donald Trump's the President Trump's response to COVID
Speaker 1: at the time, and sort of the chaos of that administration.
Speaker 7: And then in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: Two, as I suggested, I mean, inflation was seven eight
Speaker 1: nine percent that summer, just two months a month before
Speaker 1: the actual election, and Democrats somehow still held the United
Speaker 1: States Senate, which was shocking. So I think voters are
Speaker 1: quick to say that it's the economy. It's perpetually the
Speaker 1: number one issue. Inflation is right up there, but it's
Speaker 1: followed very closely by immigration and abortion and turnout is
Speaker 1: really the name of the game. The gender gap is
Speaker 1: where you should probably pay attention to that issue.
Speaker 2: Give us a window into Florida politics. I read cook
Speaker 2: political report. Amy and David had a really interesting study
Speaker 2: of I think it was five of the districts, including
Speaker 2: the tippy tip of western Florida where it gets his
Speaker 2: but give us the red blue Henrietta Trey's view on
Speaker 2: a key state like Florida.
Speaker 7: It's funny, you're speaking my language.
Speaker 1: I was just in Seaside last day with where Matt
Speaker 1: Gigs's dad lives in his district, so I feel you
Speaker 1: there's a lot of Trump supporters down there.
Speaker 7: It's very Maga nation.
Speaker 1: There's buildings with huge billboards and property owners willing to
Speaker 1: pay the fees for having political propaganda up year round.
Speaker 1: I mean, it is definitely a little insular world right there.
Speaker 7: But Florida.
Speaker 1: You know, look at Rick Scott, the senator there, who
Speaker 1: has poured money into his campaign. I believe the latest
Speaker 1: campaign donation he gave to his own cycle was over
Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars, and he has an underwater approval
Speaker 1: rating with both Republicans and Democrats in the state. And
Speaker 1: of course, as you know, in Juval County, in the
Speaker 1: Jacksonville area where my parents live. You have a democratic
Speaker 1: surge in the down Vallery is in the.
Speaker 7: Mayoral candidates, et cetera.
Speaker 1: So I think Kamala Harris is trying to spook Republicans
Speaker 1: into spending a lot of money in Florida.
Speaker 7: I think that's a smart strategy and.
Speaker 1: That that's the goal right now is just make Republicans
Speaker 1: play defense in that state.
Speaker 2: Henrietta Trees, I'm sure we'll talk to you later this week.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your commitment to show the
Speaker 2: value aid from Vader Partners. You're actually prepared today, Lisa,
Speaker 2: because you didn't visit Costco.
Speaker 6: I didn't.
Speaker 8: I saved myself five hundred bucks, that's what I did. So, yeah, summertime,
Speaker 8: there's not much going on. I had, I had broke
Speaker 8: a sweat.
Speaker 3: Looking for newspaper stories.
Speaker 8: Okay, but this one stood out to me. This was
Speaker 8: in the New York Times. You know around New York City,
Speaker 8: the horse drawn carriages right all of New York City.
Speaker 8: You love them, yes, everybody loves them, but there's controversy
Speaker 8: behind them.
Speaker 3: You know, the animal.
Speaker 8: Disagree, there's disagree, right, So in Brussels they're actually switching
Speaker 8: to electric drawn carriages. Instead of the horse drawn carriages.
Speaker 8: They became the first European capital to do this, offer
Speaker 8: those daily tours, and the carriage operators they're telling the
Speaker 8: Times that they're just tired of getting these angry marks
Speaker 8: from tourists about animal cruelty. A lot of them are
Speaker 8: selling the horses, using that profit to buy electric carriages.
Speaker 8: They say, hey, now they don't have to pay the
Speaker 8: high cost of taking care of the horses. They also
Speaker 8: don't have to worry about canceling tours because it's too
Speaker 8: hot for the horses. And they're saying they're getting just
Speaker 8: as many people signing up for the electric cars as
Speaker 8: a horse drawn I can't disagree with that.
Speaker 2: I mean, I was was fortunate enough to live in
Speaker 2: the varied climbs where I could hear the horses clip clop,
Speaker 2: clip clop, and in my you know, idiot Victorian fantasy,
Speaker 2: it was wonderful. But why not you know, why.
Speaker 6: Not have we still have them in New York?
Speaker 8: Right? We still have horr I didn't know that, Yeah,
Speaker 8: we still have in the city. I actually, long story short,
Speaker 8: I was got engaged in want of the horse drawn.
Speaker 4: Years later, Paul, we should be taking notes, boy, quickly, okay.
Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal, they were talking about how these discount
Speaker 8: airlines like Spirit in Frontier, they're now offering a lot
Speaker 8: of these bundle packages. They're calling it, well one flyer
Speaker 8: called it the poor man's first class. So they have
Speaker 8: all these different packages where you can pay one price
Speaker 8: to get like in flight Wi Fi, your check bags,
Speaker 8: for free, extra leg room, cocktails, priority boarding. So this
Speaker 8: is the way that they're trying to get more people
Speaker 8: because it's getting so competitive out there, so they're trying
Speaker 8: to do these bundle packages, like for one hundred bucks
Speaker 8: you could get this. They have a business bundle, they
Speaker 8: have a go big bundle that a costume, maybe two
Speaker 8: hundred extra to include all these things. So they want
Speaker 8: to be a little bit more transparent to That's the
Speaker 8: other thing.
Speaker 6: Where are airfares these days? In general?
Speaker 4: I have not booked a flight and like forever, so
Speaker 4: I'm not even sure where airfares are Tom price is
Speaker 4: Paris daily daily.
Speaker 6: But they're saying that's competitive about it.
Speaker 8: The regular inlines are starting to drop their prices, and
Speaker 8: now these discount carriers are saying, well, we got to
Speaker 8: do something funny.
Speaker 2: You should ask I had to do as New York
Speaker 2: thing this year get for one of the offspring, and
Speaker 2: I was surprised. Now there's economy like Bearbone's economy. You're
Speaker 2: taking you know, a little bag on and then a
Speaker 2: substantial markup to like have a suitcase. So that's that
Speaker 2: all a card things going on.
Speaker 6: It's crazy.
Speaker 2: I don't yeah, it's crazy. It's I don't get it.
Speaker 2: But that's a new level.
Speaker 4: I'm finding to Doublin next month and it's not business.
Speaker 4: It's the first time I've gone to Europe, not business,
Speaker 4: first class in like my lifetime.
Speaker 6: I don't know how this is going to go, but
Speaker 6: it's going to be good.
Speaker 2: It's gonna yeah.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 8: So we talked about Disney right revealing their plans for
Speaker 8: theme parks. So now Universal Destinations, they're the theme park
Speaker 8: business owned by Comcast. They've acquired like five hundred acres,
Speaker 8: is a potential site for Europe's largest theme parks. So
Speaker 8: they're saying, you know, they're going through they're talking with
Speaker 8: UK officials about tax other infrastructure incentives, but sources saying
Speaker 8: Comcasts could look into other sites in Europe elsewhere in
Speaker 8: the world. But they're saying it could bring a lot
Speaker 8: of significant money. Also a lot of jobs to the area,
Speaker 8: so it's interesting kind of coming and expanding in Europe.
Speaker 4: I'd say the theme park business for both Disney and
Speaker 4: Universal which owned by Comcast, as you mentioned, Lisa, they're
Speaker 4: getting huge investments. I mean, Disneys can put in I
Speaker 4: think like sixty billion dollars over the next ten years
Speaker 4: just in the theme park and cruise business, launching boats
Speaker 4: and new theme parks, and Comcasts doing the same thing.
Speaker 6: It's a good business.
Speaker 2: Does your radar up on them? Yeah? To me, it's
Speaker 2: everybody's on board.
Speaker 6: Everybody's kind of on board.
Speaker 4: But these are these are the two biggest players in
Speaker 4: the world, Comcast and did the Disney. So but people
Speaker 4: are spending, you know, all these types of things.
Speaker 2: Jonathan emails and thank you Jonathan for your interest in
Speaker 2: the show. How does Costco deliver twenty four percent returns,
Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo, Yes, exactly.
Speaker 8: Next, I'm not sure if you noticed during some of
Speaker 8: the preseason football games, but some of them are wearing
Speaker 8: those guardian casts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what are those the pasage?
Speaker 8: They put it over the helmet, so it's more added
Speaker 8: protection protection, it's protection, yeah, extra production. So the difference
Speaker 8: why you're seeing it now is because the NFL said
Speaker 8: that some players there can wear them during the preseason games.
Speaker 8: But a lot of players now are saying, hey, we
Speaker 8: might wear these during the regular season. So that's kind
Speaker 8: of the talk going on now, is should these helmets
Speaker 8: be worn during the regular season games? Because now since
Speaker 8: they said they can wear them during the preseason, there
Speaker 8: was one cold safety Rodney Thomas a second. He tells
Speaker 8: the Washington Post, you know what I might do it,
Speaker 8: I might start wearing these during the regular season.
Speaker 6: Again, there's head injuries.
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, oh extraordinary, and they're just long
Speaker 4: and lasting, long term.
Speaker 6: I don't know how they deal with that.
Speaker 4: I mean, I know they've been making advances with these
Speaker 4: helmet technologies for seemingly forever. But I guess there's no
Speaker 4: you can't be too careful, I guess, And.
Speaker 2: I personally, I had a concussion in the hockey where
Speaker 2: I was like seven years old. I remember it clear
Speaker 2: as a bell with a Bologna helmet on. But there
Speaker 2: was a thing called a Cooper sk twenty and the
Speaker 2: few and players that actually wore a helmet at the time.
Speaker 2: We're not maligned, but it was not manly to do it. J. C.
Speaker 2: Trumlay of the Montreal Canadians was an early adopter, and
Speaker 2: many others. And I'm sure Rich knows someone in the Rangers.
Speaker 2: And the answer is now we look back and it's
Speaker 2: just foolish. I mean, could you imagine the game now?
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the game is different, the high
Speaker 2: sticking is different than it used to be because you
Speaker 2: could really hurt someone. But why not wear some puffy
Speaker 2: cushion thing on your head.
Speaker 8: Well, some players say they don't like the look the feel.
Speaker 8: It could affect their performance. That's the other side of it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, We've had my family some experience with concussions and
Speaker 4: I was shocked to learn how much doctors.
Speaker 6: Don't know about concussions. They really don't.
Speaker 4: I mean they kind of go in there and this
Speaker 4: could be last a week, it could last a like.
Speaker 6: I'm like, that's it. That's what you got for.
Speaker 2: Good morning to Jeff up in Connecticut, who I skated with.
Speaker 2: He's done very well in Connecticut in business and he
Speaker 2: had to stop playing hockey at twenty years old. I mean,
Speaker 2: that's all there is to it. This is the Bloomberg
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