1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Lori Kelvisina 11 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 2: joins us this morning with all of our good work. 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 2: Lori Kelvisina, of course with RBC Laurie. I'm gonna I've 13 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 2: just cut to the chase, many would say, in this 14 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 2: odd rebound, this ten day hillacious horror, and through that 15 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: there's been a massive shortcover on small caps. Are you 16 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 2: committed to small caps this morning? Hi? 17 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 3: Tom? So, Look, you know, I hate to say it, 18 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,759 Speaker 3: but I still feel pretty neutral on the small caps. Now, 19 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 3: that's in regards to a relative call versus large. I 20 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 3: do think the market is at large small caps included 21 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 3: probably did see the lows for the pullback we experienced 22 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 3: on August fifth. But when I think about relative performance, look, 23 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 3: I think one of the things that's really been pushing 24 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 3: people into small caps, and that's been generating some of 25 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: these short term out performance pops is when the absolute 26 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 3: valuations of the Russell two thousand or cheap, so that 27 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 3: weighted media and forward pe is below average. And guess what, 28 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 3: as we updated the weekly at the end of last week, 29 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 3: it was sitting right smack dab on top of the average. 30 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 3: So we don't have, you know, sort of the same 31 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 3: kind of compelling valuation set up. Similarly, if I look 32 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 3: at positioning on the CFTC data, we recently pulled up 33 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 3: to three year highs kind of post COVID hives, and 34 00:01:57,800 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 3: we've started to ease back from those, but they don't 35 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: look under owned at this point in time. And then 36 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 3: I layer in the economy, I neither think we're about 37 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 3: to tip into a recession that's usually a really big 38 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 3: springboard for small caps. And I also don't really see 39 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 3: a hot economy. I see kind of a you know, 40 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 3: a good, solid, fine economy, But small caps really either 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 3: need the springboard coming out of recession where you get 42 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 3: really fast growth rates off the bottom, or you need 43 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 3: a really kind of hot, above average economy to outperform it. 44 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 3: I just don't have that right. 45 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 2: I have fourteen questions of Paul jump in here. I 46 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 2: just I just don't get it. 47 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 4: Hey, Lourie, I mean, we're pretty much through the earnings 48 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 4: season here, We've got some retailers are reporting this week. 49 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 4: What did you take away from this earning cycle? Good, bad, 50 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 4: or and different? 51 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 3: So I was pretty solid, you know, I do think 52 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 3: in some ways it got ignored with all these sort 53 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,080 Speaker 3: of macro gyrations, you know, sort of debates over the 54 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 3: consumer and the jobs, and then the yen carry trade unwined, 55 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 3: which I know we'd all kind of like to forget 56 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 3: right now. But I do think if you looked at 57 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 3: the stats, we saw an uptick on the percent beating 58 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 3: consensus earnings estimates. The revenue beats also picked up. The 59 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 3: earnings beats kept out pacing the sales beats, and that 60 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 3: just means companies are doing a good job of, you know, 61 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 3: kind of defying gravity so to speak, and really managing margins. 62 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 3: So that was all good. 63 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 2: I thought the. 64 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 3: Commentary was pretty balanced. You know, there was maybe a 65 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 3: bit more negativity on the consumer than what we saw 66 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 3: last reporting season, But I came away with the impression 67 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,799 Speaker 3: that while the pressures from rates and inflation, consumers are 68 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 3: reacting to that in a more profound way. Companies went 69 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 3: out of their way to sort of say, you know, 70 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 3: we think the consumer is still healthy and that they're 71 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: managing through. So I thought it was I thought it 72 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 3: was pretty solid, to be honest. 73 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 4: Solid enough to support the valuation where we are in 74 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 4: this market. How do you guys think about valuation of 75 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 4: this market these days? 76 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 3: So we look at valuations a lot of different ways. 77 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 3: If I'm looking at, you know, sort of a forward pe, 78 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 3: what I really like to do is separate the top 79 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 3: ten names and look at a bymarket cap and look 80 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 3: at a medium pe there that's still trading around twenty 81 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 3: six times. It got as low as twenty four, It 82 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 3: was up round thirty two one point. Doesn't look great, 83 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 3: but it's off the boil. If I look at, you know, 84 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 3: sort of the rest of the market, we've been sort of, 85 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 3: you know, really trading closely around kind of the seventeen 86 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 3: times mark. The average is around, you know, sort of 87 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: I think around like fifteen or so, so we're a 88 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 3: bit above average, but we're way below pass peak. So 89 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 3: I think valuations, you know, look pretty good for the 90 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 3: rest of the market. If I look at a trailing 91 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 3: PE analysis, that's where I kind of come away with 92 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 3: the idea valuations are full. And I'll spare you all 93 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 3: the details on the model, but I basically take inflation 94 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 3: and interest rates in the FED, do regressions with with 95 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 3: trailing pees going back to the sixties, and we figure 96 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 3: out where should the PE be at the end of 97 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 3: the year. If you think X, y and Z is 98 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 3: going to happen on rates and inflation, fifty six hundred 99 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 3: is already baking in, you know, sort of three or 100 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 3: four FED cuts and PCE down around two. So I 101 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 3: feel like we've already baked in a lot of good 102 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 3: news on the rates and inflation front, know, on the 103 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 3: s and P multiple itself in. 104 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 2: That regression equation, how do you plug in and presumed 105 00:04:56,320 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 2: lower real rate the oomph the economy gets from a 106 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 2: lower real yield. 107 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 3: So you know, we've got kind of all the bits 108 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 3: and pieces there, right, We've got the ten year, We've 109 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 3: got the FED funds, we've got the inflation rate. I'll 110 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 3: tell you Tom and this, I may lose some of 111 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 3: your viewers right now, so I apologize if we do that. 112 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 3: But I did experiment with this model at one point 113 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 3: in time, having GDP baked into the model. I finally, 114 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 3: you know, sort of threw it out of the model. 115 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 3: It didn't have a huge impact on the outcome. But 116 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 3: I found GDP behaves differently relative to interest rates in 117 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:34,559 Speaker 3: different decades. So inflation, the FED ten year yields pretty 118 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 3: much always inversely correlated GDP, sometimes inverse, sometimes positive. I 119 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 3: don't want to mess with that. 120 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, Lurie, thank you too much, math Lori, Kelvis, thank 121 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 2: you so much. Kelsey Burou joins US executive director Fixed 122 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 2: Income and JP Morgan thrilled with us today your arch 123 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 2: call with Bob Michael is yields are coming in tenure yield. 124 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 2: You know you're talking below. I mean Ian Lincoln's out 125 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: there and the other strategists with calls. But the basic 126 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: ideas we come down, Paul. I'm looking at the corporate 127 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 2: chart yield the worst back to vulgar. It's the great moderation, 128 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:27,159 Speaker 2: the great disinflation. We're out three standard deviations right now, folks, 129 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 2: which means we've never been here, and a regression to 130 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 2: the mean Kelsey Barrow, just get your price up yield down? 131 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 2: Is that all JP Morgan's talking about is a regression 132 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 2: to a great moderation? 133 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 5: Mean, So I'm looking at the same chart you you 134 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 5: are in terms of investment grade deals right now, five 135 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 5: percent right a yield to maturity on the on the 136 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 5: investment grade index right now. You know, I think what's 137 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 5: amazing about that? And that's come down pretty significantly. You know, 138 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 5: from the highs was above six percent. That's actually still 139 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,479 Speaker 5: in the eightieth percentile of the last ten years. 140 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 2: On the show, we call that three standard deviations right, 141 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 2: another way of saying it. 142 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 5: So, you know, I think the big question people are 143 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 5: asking now is, you know, have we missed the move? 144 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 5: Because you know, we're now thirteen months from the last 145 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 5: rate hike and if you look at one to five 146 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 5: year credit for example, that's about two hundred basis points 147 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 5: ahead of cash right now and the Fed hasn't even 148 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 5: started cutting rates. But that we do also know that 149 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 5: the market is pricing in significant amount of rate cuts, 150 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 5: eight to nine rate cuts. So you know the question 151 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 5: is what's the risk reward from here? Now there's two 152 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 5: tails that I'm thinking about. One is the reacceleration risk. 153 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 5: One is the risk that we go into a harder landing. 154 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 5: I think what the data has been telling us more recently. 155 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 5: You know, we can debate about the risk of recession, 156 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 5: the risk of rolling over. The data is very mixed 157 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 5: on that. But the one place where it's really clear 158 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 5: is that the reacceleration tail risk has come down quite 159 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 5: a lot. And that's really the big risk for bond investors. 160 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 5: And that's the good news for fixed income is that 161 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 5: we've really been able to credibly reduce that tail risk 162 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 5: of a reacceleration in inflation. 163 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 4: So if I'm the FED, I go out to Jackson 164 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 4: Hole with all the you know, the monkey MUCKs end 165 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 4: of this week, including mister Tom Keen. 166 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 6: What do I say? 167 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think you really need to say 168 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 5: that much. I mean, it's really interesting you think about 169 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 5: the price action this year, and it's really not been 170 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 5: driven by the FED speak. It's been driven by the data. 171 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 3: Right. 172 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 5: The market has reacted to the data. When the data 173 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 5: suggests that there's risk of upside on inflation, the market 174 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 5: reduces the amount of rate cuts for this year. When 175 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 5: that unwinds, the market prices in more rate cuts. 176 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 7: So I actually don't think that. 177 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 5: Chair Palal needs to say that much. That being said, though, 178 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 5: I think it should be clear that if you look 179 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 5: at simple policy rules, they would suggest, and this is 180 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 5: regardless of your view on the labor market, simple policy 181 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 5: rules would suggest that the appropriate policy rate right now 182 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 5: is probably about one hundred basis points lower than it 183 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 5: is today. And that's just onflation coming down alone. Because 184 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 5: the Fed, they don't see the Fed funds rate static 185 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 5: for the last thirteen months. They actually see the real 186 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 5: Fed funds rate has risen one hundred and fifty basis 187 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 5: points in the last thirteen months. 188 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 6: That's equivalent to. 189 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 5: Five more rate hikes. So policy has been getting incrementally 190 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 5: tighter for the last year, and they recognize that it's 191 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 5: time to kind of start to move away from that regime. 192 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 4: So when the Fed begins to cut rates, let's say 193 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 4: it's September, as the market discounting, how did they do it? 194 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 4: They do it every meeting, every other meeting, twenty five 195 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 4: basis points fifty basis points to their front load. 196 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 6: How are you guys thinking about that? 197 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 5: So I think for now it's still a gradual adjustment. 198 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 5: So you could plug in those simple tailor rules on 199 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 5: your Bloomberg term all and see that. Okay, you know 200 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 5: the policy rate maybe should be closer to three and 201 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 5: a half to four. But they're not going to do 202 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 5: that instantaneously, right I don't. I actually think that they 203 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 5: are more likely to go twenty five basis points per 204 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 5: meeting maybe for the next few meetings and then switched 205 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 5: to quarterly. But you know that's all assuming status quo, 206 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 5: and we don't know where the economies going to go next. 207 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 2: Crystal Ball, do you have a crystal Ball in your office? 208 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 7: No, we don't have a Cristal the new. 209 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 6: Office, Tom and to go into the new offices, the. 210 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 2: New offices of a crystal ball. Yep, what. I got 211 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 2: a huge response to this out of YouTube. The basic 212 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,439 Speaker 2: The basic idea here is if I get Abob Michael 213 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 2: Kelsey Barrow Market, and I don't get down to reversion 214 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 2: to the mean, I just get down to a long 215 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 2: term trend one standard deviation above the mean. I have 216 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 2: a total return vehicle at JP Morgan. Are you investing 217 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 2: in fixed income for an assumed total return or are 218 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 2: you clipping a coupon? 219 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 5: Well, so far, it's been a little bit of both, 220 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 5: is what we've gotten so far. Right, you got a 221 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 5: little bit of total return more recently and then more 222 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 5: more so, the majority of what you're vetting is clipping 223 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 5: the coupon. But I do think you know, over time 224 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 5: you are going to see that fixed income is going 225 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 5: to continue to outperform cash as the FED continues and 226 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 5: starts that easing cycle. 227 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, to me, this is huge. Nobody has 228 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 2: in their minds fixed income is a total the giant 229 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 2: damn fuss at Luma's sales. Nobody's thinking as a damn manner. 230 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 6: Yep, I'm looking at Kelsey. 231 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 4: I end going a Bloomberg terminal Bloomberg Index browser the 232 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:37,319 Speaker 4: best returning fixed income space. 233 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 6: US corporate high Yield. Where did that come from? I 234 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 6: thought we were having a recession. I mean, how's high 235 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 6: gild doing so well? 236 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 2: Yeah? 237 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 5: So, I mean, I think really that's that's a combination 238 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 5: of the fact that the economy has continued to do well, 239 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 5: and that's really a story of clipping coupons. The index 240 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 5: with the highest yields has performed with the greatest total 241 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 5: return so far, and that's because spreads have been relatively stable. 242 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 5: So if you think about what our core thesis was 243 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 5: for this year in terms of base case for investing, 244 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 5: it was soft landing and the key part of that 245 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 5: was inflation coming down. You need inflation to come down 246 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 5: for any of these things to work right in the 247 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 5: box market with about that, you can't have you can't 248 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 5: have any of it. 249 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 2: What's for really telling you? 250 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think what we're seeing in the 251 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 5: data is that the disinflation is becoming much more broad 252 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 5: based and outside really two categories left in inflation, which 253 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 5: is a shelter and auto insurance. Pretty much the rest 254 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 5: of the CPI basket is running like it was pre COVID. 255 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 2: One final question, because you've got to throw you out 256 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 2: because of Detroit Tiger's at the Yankees, Kelsey. The heart 257 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 2: of the matter is what are people doing with their 258 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 2: money right now? Is any of the cash being deplored 259 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 2: into the Michael Barrel world or same thing? Are people 260 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 2: extending duration? 261 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 5: I think they are, and I think the ways you 262 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 5: can see it you can see it in fun flows, 263 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 5: but I think you could also see it in the 264 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 5: continued demand for corporate credit. You know, supply has really 265 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 5: been pulled forward this year ahead of the elections. 266 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 2: And that's like the fourth time we've heard football. 267 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, people. 268 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 5: And people are very interested in extending and you know, 269 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 5: snapping up that credit because companies in general, they were 270 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 5: preparing for a recession. 271 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 3: The recession didn't happen. 272 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 5: But the good news is is that their balance sheets 273 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 5: are in a very good place. 274 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: Help me here, why is it big Tech? They make 275 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 2: one phone call. They don't call James Diamond, They called 276 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 2: Bob Michael. Let's be honest, they're going to make Big 277 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 2: Tech's going to make one phone call and they're going 278 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 2: to do gazillions of debt issuance. And how many people 279 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 2: does JP More gonna have to call to get that 280 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 2: deal done? 281 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 4: Like for people, well, they just call upstairs the devestment 282 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 4: manager people and then they say the demand. 283 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a frenzy if we 284 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 2: get some form of reversion to the Great moderation. Do 285 00:13:58,640 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: you see that? Yeah? 286 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 5: I mean, and you think about it. You know, you've 287 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 5: already seen institutional investors, you know, exten duration. But this 288 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 5: has happened without an actual cut, right, Like money market 289 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 5: rates have not moved yet. But I think when they move, 290 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 5: you're going to see a lot more people start to know. 291 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 2: Okay, Kelsey Barrow, thank you. So I'm a terrific brief 292 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 2: Kelsey Barrow working with Bob Mike on the team at 293 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 2: fixed income at a small bank on Park Evan. I 294 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 2: greatly appreciate her attendance. We're doing audible here with Henrietta Trece. 295 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 2: Thrilled that she's with us today. She's been a huge 296 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 2: help to Bloomberg's surveillance and identifying the trends. Henry, I 297 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 2: usually start with some you know, mumbo jumbo in the 298 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 2: zeitgeist in that, but I think we have to address 299 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 2: the Chicago protests. And the difference is in nineteen sixty eight, 300 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 2: after the Ted offensive, there were clear, visible The word 301 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 2: I use is substantial divisions within America. To you is 302 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 2: a grizzled pro How narrow is the Palestinian Israeli debate 303 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 2: in the Palestinian protests talked about in Chicago? It's not 304 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 2: nineteen sixty eight, is it. 305 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: It's definitely not nineteen sixty eight. Thanks for having me, Tom. 306 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: I think the first thing to note is that the 307 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: protest is going to be about a mile long. 308 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 7: They have moved it away from the Convention. I'm sure 309 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 7: you know. 310 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 1: I know that the Democrats have anticipated these protests. I 311 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 1: think that the biggest area of concern for them is 312 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: the state of Michigan, which there is a big population 313 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: about two three hundred thousand people who are even in 314 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: the range of focusing on this the way that the 315 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: protests would suggest. And in general, this is a really 316 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 1: small subset of the Democratic voter base, and I don't 317 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: think that it's going to move into in terms of 318 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: polling or ultimate. 319 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 7: Election outcomes, but it is there. It is present. 320 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: Kama Harris making clear that she stands with Israel but 321 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: doesn't have the same baggage that the Biden administration has 322 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: on this, and I think that's going to help her. 323 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, the reason I bring this up, besides that, 324 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 2: you know, the analog back to nineteen sixty eight and 325 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 2: all is I'm looking at outside adults like Q Research 326 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 2: Trust or the great work at Cook Political Report. What 327 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 2: Henrietta does it Vida Partners, Greg Juro at Bloomberg and 328 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 2: is she mentions Michigan's unique Okay, But other than that, 329 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 2: I can't find a critical mass of protest in America. 330 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 2: I mean, we can protest the Red Sox. 331 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 6: Middle relief exactly. 332 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 4: That's got the biggest say Yankees losing interesting Henrietta, what 333 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 4: would be or what will be or what could be 334 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 4: a success for the Democrats this week in Chicago. 335 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: Honestly, a continuation of the success is maybe talking about 336 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: the more popular part of Kamalhiris's economic plan. Get that 337 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: out there into the ether for voters who don't have 338 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: a strong sense of her policy. To the extent that 339 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: any concerns about her policy positions are a problem for voters, 340 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: We've seen in the Poli data so far is that 341 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: she's risen anywhere between five to eight points in all 342 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: of these swing states. So voters aren't really concerned about 343 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: the policy, and they're very primed to be opposed to 344 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, which is why he's lost every election since 345 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. So I think getting a little bit of 346 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 1: a message about out on policy but not too much 347 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: is probably the strategy keeping the good energy going. President 348 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: Biden will speak tonight, We'll keep forward with that. I 349 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: think there's a lot of folks waiting to see where 350 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 1: Michelle Obama comes out, but Barack Obama will be there, Hillary, 351 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: Bill Clinton. It's just a big Rah Rah, and I 352 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: expect that polling will continue to reflect the boost that 353 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: either party gets from a DNC or an RNC, which 354 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 1: is two to three points, and that point basis, once 355 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: it gets tacked on the polls next week, is going 356 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: to be sufficient to put her outside of the margin 357 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: of error in all these states. And that's a big 358 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 1: problem for Trump right now. 359 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 4: How concerned is Donald Trump? And I guess more importantly 360 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 4: the Republican Party at. 361 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: This point very concerned from House members who were hoping 362 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: to pick up all ten of the toss up races 363 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: in the House of Representatives, the senators that are not 364 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,479 Speaker 1: in Ohio and Montana are really concerned. And then at 365 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: the top of the ticket, I think you can see 366 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: it from the change up that they're doing at the 367 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 1: campaign staff. I think maybe they finally seized on a 368 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: campaign message trying to tie kaval Harris to her economic 369 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,479 Speaker 1: policies that she rolled out on Friday. But one thing 370 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 1: I'd really point out there, and where I've spending some 371 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: time digging into the data, is that when inflation was 372 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 1: nine percent a month later, Democrats went on to keep 373 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 1: House Republicans to the lowest majority wins of any majority 374 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 1: party excuse to be a minority party in one hundred years. 375 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: So I don't know that the inflation stuff is going 376 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: to beat out all the rest of it. 377 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 7: And that's what history has suggested. In the midterms and 378 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 7: the twenty twenty general. 379 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,400 Speaker 2: What do we vote? I mean, I know we don't 380 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 2: vote on foreign policy, but do we vote on border debates, 381 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 2: immigration debates? Do you buy the cliche it's all about economics. 382 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 1: Man, It's really tough because twenty twenty was not about economics. 383 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: I think that Biden narrowly won because of COVID and 384 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 1: because of Donald Trump's the President Trump's response to COVID 385 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 1: at the time, and sort of the chaos of that administration. 386 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 7: And then in twenty twenty. 387 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: Two, as I suggested, I mean, inflation was seven eight 388 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: nine percent that summer, just two months a month before 389 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: the actual election, and Democrats somehow still held the United 390 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: States Senate, which was shocking. So I think voters are 391 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: quick to say that it's the economy. It's perpetually the 392 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,640 Speaker 1: number one issue. Inflation is right up there, but it's 393 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: followed very closely by immigration and abortion and turnout is 394 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 1: really the name of the game. The gender gap is 395 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: where you should probably pay attention to that issue. 396 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,160 Speaker 2: Give us a window into Florida politics. I read cook 397 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 2: political report. Amy and David had a really interesting study 398 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 2: of I think it was five of the districts, including 399 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 2: the tippy tip of western Florida where it gets his 400 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 2: but give us the red blue Henrietta Trey's view on 401 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 2: a key state like Florida. 402 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 7: It's funny, you're speaking my language. 403 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: I was just in Seaside last day with where Matt 404 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 1: Gigs's dad lives in his district, so I feel you 405 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: there's a lot of Trump supporters down there. 406 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 7: It's very Maga nation. 407 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 1: There's buildings with huge billboards and property owners willing to 408 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 1: pay the fees for having political propaganda up year round. 409 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 1: I mean, it is definitely a little insular world right there. 410 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 7: But Florida. 411 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 1: You know, look at Rick Scott, the senator there, who 412 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 1: has poured money into his campaign. I believe the latest 413 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 1: campaign donation he gave to his own cycle was over 414 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars, and he has an underwater approval 415 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: rating with both Republicans and Democrats in the state. And 416 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 1: of course, as you know, in Juval County, in the 417 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: Jacksonville area where my parents live. You have a democratic 418 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: surge in the down Vallery is in the. 419 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 7: Mayoral candidates, et cetera. 420 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: So I think Kamala Harris is trying to spook Republicans 421 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 1: into spending a lot of money in Florida. 422 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 7: I think that's a smart strategy and. 423 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 1: That that's the goal right now is just make Republicans 424 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,640 Speaker 1: play defense in that state. 425 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 2: Henrietta Trees, I'm sure we'll talk to you later this week. 426 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your commitment to show the 427 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 2: value aid from Vader Partners. You're actually prepared today, Lisa, 428 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 2: because you didn't visit Costco. 429 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 6: I didn't. 430 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 8: I saved myself five hundred bucks, that's what I did. So, yeah, summertime, 431 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 8: there's not much going on. I had, I had broke 432 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 8: a sweat. 433 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 3: Looking for newspaper stories. 434 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 8: Okay, but this one stood out to me. This was 435 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 8: in the New York Times. You know around New York City, 436 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 8: the horse drawn carriages right all of New York City. 437 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 8: You love them, yes, everybody loves them, but there's controversy 438 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:53,360 Speaker 8: behind them. 439 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 3: You know, the animal. 440 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 8: Disagree, there's disagree, right, So in Brussels they're actually switching 441 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 8: to electric drawn carriages. Instead of the horse drawn carriages. 442 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 8: They became the first European capital to do this, offer 443 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 8: those daily tours, and the carriage operators they're telling the 444 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 8: Times that they're just tired of getting these angry marks 445 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 8: from tourists about animal cruelty. A lot of them are 446 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 8: selling the horses, using that profit to buy electric carriages. 447 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 8: They say, hey, now they don't have to pay the 448 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 8: high cost of taking care of the horses. They also 449 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,159 Speaker 8: don't have to worry about canceling tours because it's too 450 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 8: hot for the horses. And they're saying they're getting just 451 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 8: as many people signing up for the electric cars as 452 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 8: a horse drawn I can't disagree with that. 453 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 2: I mean, I was was fortunate enough to live in 454 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 2: the varied climbs where I could hear the horses clip clop, 455 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,919 Speaker 2: clip clop, and in my you know, idiot Victorian fantasy, 456 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,440 Speaker 2: it was wonderful. But why not you know, why. 457 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 6: Not have we still have them in New York? 458 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 8: Right? We still have horr I didn't know that, Yeah, 459 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 8: we still have in the city. I actually, long story short, 460 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 8: I was got engaged in want of the horse drawn. 461 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 4: Years later, Paul, we should be taking notes, boy, quickly, okay. 462 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal, they were talking about how these discount 463 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 8: airlines like Spirit in Frontier, they're now offering a lot 464 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 8: of these bundle packages. They're calling it, well one flyer 465 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,199 Speaker 8: called it the poor man's first class. So they have 466 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 8: all these different packages where you can pay one price 467 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 8: to get like in flight Wi Fi, your check bags, 468 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 8: for free, extra leg room, cocktails, priority boarding. So this 469 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 8: is the way that they're trying to get more people 470 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 8: because it's getting so competitive out there, so they're trying 471 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 8: to do these bundle packages, like for one hundred bucks 472 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,199 Speaker 8: you could get this. They have a business bundle, they 473 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 8: have a go big bundle that a costume, maybe two 474 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 8: hundred extra to include all these things. So they want 475 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 8: to be a little bit more transparent to That's the 476 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 8: other thing. 477 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 6: Where are airfares these days? In general? 478 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 4: I have not booked a flight and like forever, so 479 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,399 Speaker 4: I'm not even sure where airfares are Tom price is 480 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 4: Paris daily daily. 481 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 6: But they're saying that's competitive about it. 482 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 8: The regular inlines are starting to drop their prices, and 483 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 8: now these discount carriers are saying, well, we got to 484 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:06,679 Speaker 8: do something funny. 485 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 2: You should ask I had to do as New York 486 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,959 Speaker 2: thing this year get for one of the offspring, and 487 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 2: I was surprised. Now there's economy like Bearbone's economy. You're 488 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 2: taking you know, a little bag on and then a 489 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 2: substantial markup to like have a suitcase. So that's that 490 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 2: all a card things going on. 491 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 6: It's crazy. 492 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,120 Speaker 2: I don't yeah, it's crazy. It's I don't get it. 493 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 2: But that's a new level. 494 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,360 Speaker 4: I'm finding to Doublin next month and it's not business. 495 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 4: It's the first time I've gone to Europe, not business, 496 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 4: first class in like my lifetime. 497 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 6: I don't know how this is going to go, but 498 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 6: it's going to be good. 499 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,360 Speaker 2: It's gonna yeah. 500 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 6: Yeah. 501 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 8: So we talked about Disney right revealing their plans for 502 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 8: theme parks. So now Universal Destinations, they're the theme park 503 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 8: business owned by Comcast. They've acquired like five hundred acres, 504 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 8: is a potential site for Europe's largest theme parks. So 505 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,679 Speaker 8: they're saying, you know, they're going through they're talking with 506 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 8: UK officials about tax other infrastructure incentives, but sources saying 507 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 8: Comcasts could look into other sites in Europe elsewhere in 508 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 8: the world. But they're saying it could bring a lot 509 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 8: of significant money. Also a lot of jobs to the area, 510 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,919 Speaker 8: so it's interesting kind of coming and expanding in Europe. 511 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 4: I'd say the theme park business for both Disney and 512 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 4: Universal which owned by Comcast, as you mentioned, Lisa, they're 513 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 4: getting huge investments. I mean, Disneys can put in I 514 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 4: think like sixty billion dollars over the next ten years 515 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 4: just in the theme park and cruise business, launching boats 516 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 4: and new theme parks, and Comcasts doing the same thing. 517 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 6: It's a good business. 518 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 2: Does your radar up on them? Yeah? To me, it's 519 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 2: everybody's on board. 520 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 6: Everybody's kind of on board. 521 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,280 Speaker 4: But these are these are the two biggest players in 522 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 4: the world, Comcast and did the Disney. So but people 523 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 4: are spending, you know, all these types of things. 524 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 2: Jonathan emails and thank you Jonathan for your interest in 525 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 2: the show. How does Costco deliver twenty four percent returns, 526 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo, Yes, exactly. 527 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,199 Speaker 8: Next, I'm not sure if you noticed during some of 528 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,680 Speaker 8: the preseason football games, but some of them are wearing 529 00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 8: those guardian casts. 530 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, what are those the pasage? 531 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 8: They put it over the helmet, so it's more added 532 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 8: protection protection, it's protection, yeah, extra production. So the difference 533 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,120 Speaker 8: why you're seeing it now is because the NFL said 534 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 8: that some players there can wear them during the preseason games. 535 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 8: But a lot of players now are saying, hey, we 536 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,360 Speaker 8: might wear these during the regular season. So that's kind 537 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 8: of the talk going on now, is should these helmets 538 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 8: be worn during the regular season games? Because now since 539 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 8: they said they can wear them during the preseason, there 540 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 8: was one cold safety Rodney Thomas a second. He tells 541 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,439 Speaker 8: the Washington Post, you know what I might do it, 542 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 8: I might start wearing these during the regular season. 543 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:33,160 Speaker 6: Again, there's head injuries. 544 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,120 Speaker 4: I mean, you know, oh extraordinary, and they're just long 545 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 4: and lasting, long term. 546 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 6: I don't know how they deal with that. 547 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 4: I mean, I know they've been making advances with these 548 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 4: helmet technologies for seemingly forever. But I guess there's no 549 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 4: you can't be too careful, I guess, And. 550 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 2: I personally, I had a concussion in the hockey where 551 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 2: I was like seven years old. I remember it clear 552 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,640 Speaker 2: as a bell with a Bologna helmet on. But there 553 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,439 Speaker 2: was a thing called a Cooper sk twenty and the 554 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 2: few and players that actually wore a helmet at the time. 555 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:07,800 Speaker 2: We're not maligned, but it was not manly to do it. J. C. 556 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 2: Trumlay of the Montreal Canadians was an early adopter, and 557 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:16,360 Speaker 2: many others. And I'm sure Rich knows someone in the Rangers. 558 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 2: And the answer is now we look back and it's 559 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 2: just foolish. I mean, could you imagine the game now? 560 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,400 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the game is different, the high 561 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,159 Speaker 2: sticking is different than it used to be because you 562 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,280 Speaker 2: could really hurt someone. But why not wear some puffy 563 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 2: cushion thing on your head. 564 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 8: Well, some players say they don't like the look the feel. 565 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 8: It could affect their performance. That's the other side of it. 566 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, We've had my family some experience with concussions and 567 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 4: I was shocked to learn how much doctors. 568 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 6: Don't know about concussions. They really don't. 569 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 4: I mean they kind of go in there and this 570 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,919 Speaker 4: could be last a week, it could last a like. 571 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 6: I'm like, that's it. That's what you got for. 572 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 2: Good morning to Jeff up in Connecticut, who I skated with. 573 00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,439 Speaker 2: He's done very well in Connecticut in business and he 574 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:06,640 Speaker 2: had to stop playing hockey at twenty years old. I mean, 575 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 2: that's all there is to it. 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