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Speaker 1: Happy Monday, everybody. This is a members game with Ryan Gerdoski.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host and honored to be here.

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Speaker 2: We have a great guest today.

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Speaker 1: One of the premier polsters in the country is going

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Speaker 1: to come up to talk about the mid terms, how

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Speaker 1: people at voters are feeling about Iran, about AI, about

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Speaker 1: how working class voters feel about Trump. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of conversation line on whether or not he's lost his

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Speaker 1: working class base. And if you didn't pay attention to

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Speaker 1: the weekend episode, my brief weekend episode, Tony Gonzalez, the very,

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Speaker 1: very disgraceful congressman from Texas, announced he was dropping his

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Speaker 1: reelection that I record a brief episode over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: If you didn't maybe heard that, discussing his announcement and

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Speaker 1: what that could also mean and if there was any

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Speaker 1: chance of him making a comeback. But goodbye and good riddens.

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Speaker 1: Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

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Speaker 2: But I'm very.

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Speaker 1: Proud by the way of all the episodes I did

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Speaker 1: about him that I work to try to apply sure

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Speaker 1: as much as possible, and I've done that with a

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Speaker 1: few other elected officials who I feel like don't deserve

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Speaker 1: the office I have a deep dive coming about a

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Speaker 1: Democratic candidate seeking elected office that should be out this

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Speaker 1: week or early next. Last week was insane, it was

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Speaker 1: it was a month long week. All the episodes I did,

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Speaker 1: I thought I was constantly chasing the news stories. You

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Speaker 1: had stories about Iran in Texas and Christy Nolan being

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Speaker 1: fired or demoted with Corey Lewandeski. I didn't even get

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Speaker 1: a chance to really cover that one, and I can't.

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Speaker 1: I mean, everyone basically has heard with the story. Is

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Speaker 1: there's ne really no point of going to a deep dive.

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Speaker 1: And Mark Wayne mullensenter and Mark Rayn Mullen will be

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Speaker 1: her replacement. I don't know much about him. I've never

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Speaker 1: spoken to him. I know that he's a favorite darling

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Speaker 1: of the media. He's got an okay, actually a less

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Speaker 1: than okay voting record in Congress on immigration. But the

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Speaker 1: good thing is is that he is excellent on interior

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Speaker 1: enforcement and the which is primarily his job. So before

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Speaker 1: we go to our interview, we need to get to

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Speaker 1: numbers behind two stories. One the media has picked up

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Speaker 1: a lot about but is not giving a full story

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Speaker 1: of or full picture of, and then the other one

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Speaker 1: they totally ignored, which makes sense given what the contexts are.

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Speaker 1: So the first one on the job's number that came

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Speaker 1: out on Friday morning, I'm not going to sugarcoat them.

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Speaker 1: They are very bad. The jobs that were in February

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Speaker 1: were much weaker than expected. The economy lost ninety two

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Speaker 1: thousand jobs, with the unemployment rate hitting four point four percent.

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Speaker 1: The jobs report from December was also revised. It looks

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Speaker 1: like the economy lost seventeen thousand jobs during that month. Now,

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Speaker 1: being revised downward has become a new normal. Almost every

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Speaker 1: month for the last two years. This predates Trump two

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Speaker 1: years has been revised downwards. Even healthcare jobs in February

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Speaker 1: lost and that's partially because of the strikes that were

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Speaker 1: going on in the industry. But still healthcare has been

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Speaker 1: the one the one part of the economy has been

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Speaker 1: growing successfully. Manufacturing jobs shed. Manufacturing shed twelve thousand jobs.

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Speaker 1: We've lost about one hundred thousand jobs from from February

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five to February twenty twenty six. Eighty nine

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Speaker 1: thousand manufacturing jobs since Liberation Day. The tariffs haven't done

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Speaker 1: anything to revise our long standing to decline in manufacturing. Jobs,

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Speaker 1: and the US has shed two hundred and thirty eight

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Speaker 1: thousand manufacturing, transportation, and mining jobs over the last year.

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Speaker 1: Blue collar jobs are not in good shape. It's not

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Speaker 1: just white collar jobs. The US has lost an average

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Speaker 1: of one thousand jobs per month over the last six month,

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Speaker 1: fourth of fifth month with a negative moving average. This

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Speaker 1: is a twelfth time this has happened in the economy

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Speaker 1: since nineteen fifty. All other times were during a recession.

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Speaker 1: Now a big one of our declining number came from

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Speaker 1: government sector jobs. That is true, the US has shd

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Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty four thousand government sector jobs since

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Speaker 1: January twenty twenty five. Something I didn't expect but I

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Speaker 1: read in the report was that we actually added and

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Speaker 1: grew government jobs in February. Healthcare, which is heavily subsized

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Speaker 1: by the government. Construction, utilities, and hospitalities are the only

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Speaker 1: industries over the last year to see net positive job growth.

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Speaker 1: There are a number of people holding The number of

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Speaker 1: people holding multiple jobs has fallen by three hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty two thousand year to year, which is down for

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Speaker 1: the third straight month. That's the first time that's happened

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Speaker 1: since COVID. Since the lockdowns, which would be good news

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Speaker 1: if full time jobs weren't contracting. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: full time jobs were down one point one percent from

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Speaker 1: January twenty twenty five. E Jantoni, who I've had in

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Speaker 1: this podcast with a government payroll fell by six thousand,

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Speaker 1: while private sector payroll fell by eighty six thousand, and

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Speaker 1: job growth among Native born Americans is up only one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty eight thousand jobs.

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Speaker 2: A year to year. It's not great.

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Speaker 1: Foreign Born hiring is down five hundred and nineteen thousand,

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Speaker 1: non farm payroll jobs are up one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: nine thousand year to year, and employment is down three

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety one thousand. A crazy statistic that

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Speaker 1: employment that I read while reading these numbers, employment for

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Speaker 1: white Americans is actually holding steady. The number the percentage

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Speaker 1: of Americans. White Americans who are unemployed actually went down

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Speaker 1: from three point eight percent of December twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: to three point seven percent. Almost everybody else it went up.

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Speaker 1: It is Black unemployment grew from six percent to seven

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Speaker 1: point seven, Asians from three point two to four point eight,

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Speaker 1: and Latinos have remained study at five point two though

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Speaker 1: they were up last month from the month before, but

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Speaker 1: average out equally going back to January. Young people, both

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Speaker 1: with and without a college degree, are seeing the worst

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Speaker 1: ramifications from the job market. Teenage unemployment went from thirteen

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Speaker 1: percent to nearly fifteen percent.

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Speaker 2: There were a few bright spots.

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Speaker 1: A rare bright spot is that wage growth is remaining

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Speaker 1: very healthy of three point eight percent. It is growing,

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Speaker 1: the wages are growing more than inflation. That's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: You're beating on inflation with your numbers. Economic growth also

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Speaker 1: remains very strong, productivities at two point two percent above

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Speaker 1: the CBO's pre pandemic forecast, and that comes despite the tariffs. Now,

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Speaker 1: so many economists said that the tariffs were going to

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Speaker 1: slow down productivity to a screeching hold. That hasn't happened.

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Speaker 1: They were completely wrongly predicted, that utterly wrong. There's a

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Speaker 1: question that people in the media don't seem to be asking,

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Speaker 1: which is how much of economic growth is an expected

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Speaker 1: Job growth more or less should be linked to the

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Speaker 1: change in the immigrantion numbers and the AI, because we've

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Speaker 1: seen a significant crackdown on immigration and you add AI

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Speaker 1: to the equation and you kind of have to ask

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Speaker 1: yourself how much job growth should we expect to see

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Speaker 1: with limited population and a changing towards more mechanization. It's

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Speaker 1: not being discussed enough. Aside from that, oil prices and

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Speaker 1: gas prices have risen because of the war with Iran,

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Speaker 1: and according to Vanguard, a record breaking six percent of

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Speaker 1: workers are dipping into their four oh one K plans,

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Speaker 1: the plans that are administered by the company and withdrawing

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Speaker 1: from their retirement account. That's from four point eight percent

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four and from two percent before the pandemic. Look,

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Speaker 1: you don't even know Shadamis to know that these givers

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Speaker 1: are not good for Republicans. They're not good for President

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Speaker 1: Trump going into November, and it's not I mean, there's.

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Speaker 2: No other way to say it. There's just no other

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Speaker 2: way to say it.

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Speaker 1: Democrats, of course, are all over the media blaming Trump

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Speaker 1: and Republicans for this economic instability in the markets and

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Speaker 1: the poor job numbers, and Republicans really have two months

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Speaker 1: to see numbers change two months.

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Speaker 2: You can make it.

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Speaker 1: Direct by the correlation between the rising unemployment levels between

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Speaker 1: Asians and Hispanics and their reversion back to the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 1: So much this is pocketbook issues and with criming and

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Speaker 1: all time low. And we're gonna get to crime in

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Speaker 1: a second. There are a few other things aside from

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Speaker 1: culture war issues where Republicans can really lean and to

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Speaker 1: try to win people back. It puts in a very

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Speaker 1: dangerous situation. They really have two months to turn something around,

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Speaker 1: get oil prices back down, and get the economy moving

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Speaker 1: and jobs hiring, because that's.

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Speaker 2: A big part of it.

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Speaker 1: Now, let's get to a story that I want to

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Speaker 1: share with you from last week that was you know,

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Speaker 1: that was amazing, but it was in such a crazy

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Speaker 1: news cycle that well, Democrats would have never picked it up.

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Speaker 1: I mean absolutely never picked it up, but it didn't

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Speaker 1: really make Republican media. There was a study published two

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Speaker 1: weeks ago by I'm going to mispronounce their name, but

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Speaker 1: there is, but Ponka Benksik from Vanderbilt University and Tyler

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Speaker 1: Giles or Giles from Wellesley College. The study examined how

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Speaker 1: local prosecutors improve public health. The paper investigated the casual

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Speaker 1: relationship between approaches taken by local chronal prosecution and district

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Speaker 1: attorneys and community level mortality rates, especially in terms of

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Speaker 1: how tough on crime Republican prosecutors fared compared to a

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Speaker 1: more compassion approach by Democratic prosecutors. The study found this

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Speaker 1: using data from hundreds of closely contested partisan elections from

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Speaker 1: twenty ten to twenty nineteen and a vote share regression

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Speaker 1: discontinuality design. We find the narrow election of a Republican

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Speaker 1: prosecutor reduces all cause mortality rates among young men ages

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Speaker 1: twenty to twenty nine by six point six percent. This

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Speaker 1: decline is driven predominantly by a reduction in firearm related deaths,

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Speaker 1: including a large reduction in in firearm homicide among black men,

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Speaker 1: in a smaller reduction of firearms suicides and accidents primarily

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Speaker 1: among white men. Mechanism analysis indicates that increased prison based

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Speaker 1: incapacitation explains about one third of the effect among black

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Speaker 1: men and none of the effect among white men. Instead,

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Speaker 1: the primary channel appears to be a substantially increase in

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Speaker 1: criminal conviction rates across racial groups and crime types, which

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Speaker 1: then reduces firearm access through legal restrictions on gun ownership

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Speaker 1: of the conviction. This is such a validation for Republicans

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Speaker 1: and conservatis who've been saying for so long that the

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Speaker 1: most efficient thing you can do to stop crime is

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Speaker 1: actually be harm on criminals. CNN obviously did not cover

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Speaker 1: this investigation.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Abby.

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Speaker 1: Phillips would have started screaming uncontrollably, interrupting everybody that was

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Speaker 1: even brought up, and she would have done that. The

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Speaker 1: whole thing was fake, you know. But what the paper's

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Speaker 1: saying and what this is a very credible state. This

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Speaker 1: is not a study by some right wing lunatic. The

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Speaker 1: best thing for a black American is a Republican district attorney.

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Speaker 1: There's no other way to say it. So few people

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Speaker 1: in our inner cities are habitual criminals. They commit a

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Speaker 1: majority of crimes even though they are a minuscule portion

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Speaker 1: of the population, and for a decade plus they have

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Speaker 1: plagued these inner cities. They have plagued these communities. By

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Speaker 1: cracking down on those chosen few, primarily Black and Latino,

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Speaker 1: you dramatically increase the quality of life and life expectancy

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Speaker 1: for all other members of that community. The same men

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Speaker 1: who people like Sonny Houston from The View or Ashley

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Speaker 1: Allison from CNN pretend to care about, They pretend like

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Speaker 1: the lives of Black Americans is their number one priority,

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Speaker 1: and then advocate in the next breath an abolition to

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Speaker 1: the police, or a reduction of the police, or a

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Speaker 1: democratic district attorney get those same people they pretend to

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Speaker 1: care about kills. I've been reading a book called Gods

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Speaker 1: of New York by Jonathan Mahler, and it discovers New

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Speaker 1: York from nineteen eighty six to nineteen ninety and it's

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Speaker 1: it's such a reminder, having grown up in that city

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Speaker 1: at the time that Rudy Giuliani was going in to

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Speaker 1: save it, right before he got sworn in and became mayor,

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Speaker 1: that the group who benefited the most from Giuliani's mayorship

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Speaker 1: now everyone benefited by the group that benefited the most

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Speaker 1: were blacks in New York City, tens of thousands of

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Speaker 1: whom possibly twenty to thirty thousand if you look at

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Speaker 1: the percentages of people dying in gun homicides were saved

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Speaker 1: where their lives were saved because of Rudigiani. And he

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Speaker 1: will never get an ounce of credit for anything that

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Speaker 1: he did.

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Speaker 2: And he's just the most I think.

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Speaker 1: Thick example of a mayor of a very of the

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Speaker 1: biggest city, not a very big city, but a big

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Speaker 1: city who advocated for policies that the media screamed their

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Speaker 1: head off for racists. You know, he wasn't DA. Of

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Speaker 1: course he was federal prosecutor and obviously mayor. But not

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Speaker 1: only did he not win the black vote, he will

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Speaker 1: spend they will they will deem him as a racist

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Speaker 1: even after he goes to his grave, that he was

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Speaker 1: a mean person who who really picked on black people,

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Speaker 1: and then sol Times Square to Disney the But the

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Speaker 1: people who promote the Week on Crime policy and opposition

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Speaker 1: to julianni in opposition to Republican das across the country,

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Speaker 1: they're the ones who really don't care about the lives

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Speaker 1: of working class people and primarily of black people.

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Speaker 2: They don't care.

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Speaker 1: They're indifferent to the outcomes so long as the policies

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Speaker 1: they support are enacted. Because it feels good. It's pretend caring.

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Speaker 1: It's pretend you know that you're a member of the

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Speaker 1: working class, you're an advocate for the black community. You

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Speaker 1: get to sit there and fake it so the next

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Speaker 1: time you're in casual conversation with mixed company. And this

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Speaker 1: has brought up Vanderbilt University and Wesley University. Electing a

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Speaker 1: Republican DA reduces black homicides by almost seven percent. I

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Speaker 1: think it's really important that people know that, and that

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Speaker 1: the especially woke Wine moms who spend their whole days

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Speaker 1: screeching out Republicans and that they are really fighting against racism.

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Speaker 1: Here that and know that. Okay, next up, let's get

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Speaker 1: to our interview about polling in the midterms. It's an

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Speaker 1: exclusive for my audience. No one is getting this. It's

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Speaker 1: so exciting. That's coming up next. Say tuned. Brent Buchanan

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Speaker 1: is the present of Signal Polling, an amazing polling company.

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Speaker 1: He has a exclusive poll on the midterm elections and

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Speaker 1: some other big policy questions. Brent, thank you for being

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Speaker 1: here and giving my audience the exclusive.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, great to be back, Brian. So first questions.

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Speaker 1: First, how is it looking for Republicans in the midterms

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Speaker 1: and how does this compare to the twenty eighteen midterm?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that you framed it this way, because

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Speaker 2: too often we just say, well, how did this change

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Speaker 2: from last month, as opposed to how does this look

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Speaker 2: compared to the twenty two midterm or the twenty eighteen midterm?

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Speaker 2: And if we look back at twenty eighteen, is the

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Speaker 2: frame which was not a great year for Republicans. We

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Speaker 2: also have to remember that was at the end of

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Speaker 2: a redistricting decade, and so a lot had changed in

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Speaker 2: those seats over that time. So back then it was

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Speaker 2: anywhere from Democrats plus seven to Democrats plus thirteen at

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Speaker 2: this stage, and Democrats went on to win the House

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Speaker 2: by about nine points in the actual vote, so it

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Speaker 2: kind of landed right in the middle of that number.

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Speaker 2: And right now we have Democrats with a four point

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Speaker 2: lead forty nine to forty five, which is a point

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Speaker 2: better for them than February. But all polls have a

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Speaker 2: margin of era. This one's around two percent, which is

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Speaker 2: a very low margin. But aligning in all of this too,

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Speaker 2: is that Republicans at forty five ballots share on the

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Speaker 2: Jeneric ballots, actually the highest we've had them since October.

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Speaker 1: What do you attribute that to in the sense that Republicans,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Democrats have a lead, but it's not this monster,

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Speaker 1: tidle wave of a lead compared to twenty eighteen. What

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Speaker 1: groups are not breaking their way that used to break

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Speaker 1: their way? Well, the diploma divide, which I read about

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Speaker 1: in my book, and I didn't come up with a

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Speaker 1: name or the concept, but I just do believe it's

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Speaker 1: been a big factor in elections. We've actually seen non

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Speaker 1: college educated voters moving away from Republicans for about the

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Speaker 1: last six months, and college educated voters moving towards Republicans,

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Speaker 1: which if it happened in a single month, I would

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Speaker 1: not have read into it, but the fact that it

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Speaker 1: had been a trend over the last six months made

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Speaker 1: me believe there was something to it. That trend reversed

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Speaker 1: this month. Non college educated voter came home to Republicans.

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Speaker 1: College educated voters went from an eleven point advantage for

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Speaker 1: Democrats in February to a twenty one point advantage for

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Speaker 1: Democrats in.

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Speaker 2: Just one month. So we're kind of getting back to

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Speaker 2: what I would say is stasis, even though the top

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Speaker 2: line number doesn't really look like it's moved. What's interesting

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Speaker 2: is that, you know, a lot of our seats that

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Speaker 2: we need to win, our suburban house districts, and so

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Speaker 2: they're more heavily weighted towards college educated voters. And that's

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Speaker 2: something we're definitely going to be watching as the election progresses.

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Speaker 2: But let's all keep in mind that November is a

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Speaker 2: political eternity from now. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, and that's why so many people were in the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two election, when Republicans didn't do as well

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Speaker 1: as they wanted to, even though they won the generic ballot.

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Speaker 1: It's just because the assortment of where our voters were.

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Speaker 1: You know, they were Republicans and much better in the

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Speaker 1: city than they ever had, but not enough to win

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Speaker 1: any of the city seats. But we're losing the suburbancies

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Speaker 1: because of the colle educated vote.

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Speaker 2: How is Trump and standing right now? What's his favorability

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Speaker 2: at Well, before we dig into Trump's favorability, let's talk

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Speaker 2: about the Republican trickle as opposed to the Republican wave

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Speaker 2: in twenty two. And our research after the fact in

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Speaker 2: the election found that when we looked at what state

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Speaker 2: level Republicans were spending on ads, like what were their

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Speaker 2: messages and what were federal Republicans spending on their ads

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Speaker 2: from a message perspective, and they were inverted to what

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Speaker 2: they should have been. All the state level Republicans were

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Speaker 2: talking about inflation and economy and all the federal level

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Speaker 2: Republicans were talking about crime and public safety, and it

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Speaker 2: should have been the inverse. And I think one of

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Speaker 2: the largest problems that Democrats have in this election is

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Speaker 2: a trust in that they can actually do something right now.

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Speaker 2: The bulk of their position on the ballot is built

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Speaker 2: on the fact that did people hate Donald Trump, and

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Speaker 2: it's not built on the fact that people trust Republicans.

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Speaker 2: What we saw as a failure in twenty twenty two midterms,

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Speaker 2: we kept saying gas is expensive and groceries are expensive,

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Speaker 2: and voters decided at the end of the day their

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Speaker 2: response was going to be no dust sherlock, but they

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Speaker 2: offered no plan. And that's really what I see happening

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Speaker 2: with the Democrats now. So to answer the Trump question,

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Speaker 2: you know, we have him at forty three percent favorable

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Speaker 2: fifty five percent unfavorable. Trump is pretty much outside of

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Speaker 2: his honeymoon, coming off of running against one of the

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Speaker 2: worst candidates ever in Kamala Harris and the second worst

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Speaker 2: in Joe Biden in twenty twenty four. This is a

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Speaker 2: pretty normal number for Trump's favorability. And if you look

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Speaker 2: at the intensity gap, which is the very unfavorable versus

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Speaker 2: very favorable, that has been really stable over time, and

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Speaker 2: it's a metric that we look at and say he's

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Speaker 2: got a floor. So yes, you may see some movement

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Speaker 2: at the top line level on his image, but I

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Speaker 2: would say that Trump's image is at a floor right now,

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Speaker 2: that the problem is that Republicans in Congress are at

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Speaker 2: forty one percent favorable fifty percent unfavorable. It's actually pretty

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Speaker 2: good for Republicans in Congress, because I mean it, but

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Speaker 2: it also concerns me a little bit because we are

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Speaker 2: the ones with the keys.

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Speaker 1: No, of course, of course, and I want I think

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Speaker 1: the floor is really important for Trump because Trump's floor

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Speaker 1: kind of reminds me of Obama's floor in a certain way,

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Speaker 1: unlike Bush and unlike Biden. I don't know if Biden

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Speaker 1: ever got to the twenties. Bush definitely got to the twenties. Biden,

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Speaker 1: if he didn't get to the twenties, got to the

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Speaker 1: very low thirties at some points in the polling.

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Speaker 2: Is you really think of this as the floor.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to go below well below the high thirties,

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Speaker 1: and maybe, like there's margins of erra for every poles,

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Speaker 1: let's say thirty nine, thirty eight, whatever, But between thirty

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Speaker 1: eight and forty forty two, forty three, that's his basically floors.

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Speaker 2: What you think? I believe so. And I also think

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Speaker 2: that starting a couple of cycles ago, presidential approval doesn't

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Speaker 2: necessarily equate to electoral victory or loss, because if that

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Speaker 2: metric still had the predictive power that it had, say

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Speaker 2: twenty forty fifty years ago, then you know, had it

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Speaker 2: been a Biden Trump election, that Trump should have won

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Speaker 2: the national vote by fifteen points. And we just know

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Speaker 2: that that's asinine to think that that would have been

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Speaker 2: the case.

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Speaker 1: What I finishing on your poll also was the economy

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Speaker 1: was a lot lower in importance than I thought it

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Speaker 1: would be.

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Speaker 2: What are the most important issues for voters? Well, it's

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Speaker 2: still there towards the top, but threats to democracy, which

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Speaker 2: is just a dog whistle for Trump arrangement syndrome, has

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Speaker 2: now taken over the top, and they really if you

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Speaker 2: look past and you can get to our website, the

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Speaker 2: state is not up yet, but it will be later

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Speaker 2: this week. This is an exclusive to y'all to start

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Speaker 2: cygn dot al. You'll see even if you look at

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Speaker 2: our February survey that inflation, economy, threats to democracy, immigration

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Speaker 2: kind of popping up here, and they're all just kind

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Speaker 2: of flirting the upper teams for who's going to be first, second,

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Speaker 2: and third. But when you dig deeper, and this is

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Speaker 2: why a top issue question can be helpful, but it's

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Speaker 2: not directional. As we have seventy six percent of folks

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Speaker 2: who say that they're either being careful with their spending,

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Speaker 2: just getting by or struggling seventy six percent. And Trump

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Speaker 2: really needs to be able to close this gap between

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Speaker 2: his economic promises and what people are feeling in their wallets.

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Speaker 2: So yes, they're not saying it's the most important, but

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Speaker 2: when you ask them about it that there's some some

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Speaker 2: red lights we need to pay attention to there.

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Speaker 1: What can I and this is going to answer me

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Speaker 1: a dumb question, and I should ask a liberal this,

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Speaker 1: but what is the threat to democracy?

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Speaker 2: Like? What what does that act? Like? What is you?

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Speaker 2: What is the threat? I don't, I don't. I really

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Speaker 2: don't know. I think it's a catch all for giving

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Speaker 2: them a better way to say I hate Trump and

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Speaker 2: he terrifies me.

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Speaker 1: Now, immigration and border security is also ticking high. Which

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Speaker 1: is that all Democrats now just angry about Minneapolis that

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Speaker 1: are taking it higher or is it Republicans who are

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Speaker 1: wanting Trump to do more when it comes to immigration.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's it's hard to say when when folks

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Speaker 2: kind of sort in and out a point or two

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Speaker 2: here and there month to month. But what I do

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Speaker 2: know is when you ask voters who which party they

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Speaker 2: trust on immigration, We're at fifty percent. Democrats are at

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Speaker 2: thirty seven percent. So it's an R plus thirteen issue.

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Speaker 2: So I don't think it's a big enough salient issue

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Speaker 2: to make a huge difference in the election. And I

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Speaker 2: also believe that it's one of the reasons that Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump made the change with, you know, putting our client,

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Speaker 2: Senator Mark Wayne Mullen in there and moving Nomon is

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Speaker 2: he knows the issue still needs to be addressed. I

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Speaker 2: forget which Paul it was that we did this year,

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Speaker 2: but we ask somebody if it's still a problem, and

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Speaker 2: it's still very much a problem in the eyes of voters.

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Speaker 2: He just needs somebody that's not dramatic to go in there.

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Speaker 1: And now it doesn't have a million dollar airpiecet budget,

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Speaker 1: I could use one of those, okay. So one of

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Speaker 1: the most concerning things from an analysis from the poll

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Speaker 1: that was like a glaring red light for Republicans that

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Speaker 1: I suffering. Your poll is that one in three Americans

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Speaker 1: say Republicans are out of touch, compared to only one

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Speaker 1: in five for Democrats. This is a similar result you

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Speaker 1: see to a lot of other polls. It wasn't in

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Speaker 1: your poll that I remember seeing it, But they say,

437
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 1: is Trump have your priorities? And a lot of people

438
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 1: say no. Focusing a lot on foreign policy, having cartoonish

439
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: podcasters get a lot of attention representing the Republican Party?

440
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: What is it? And maybe they didn't describe it?

441
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: Did people say, here's what I wish they'd actually focus

442
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: on and what are they kind of distracted with?

443
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,199
Speaker 2: We didn't ask those questions in this survey because we

444
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: tend to touch on a lot of subjects, maybe a

445
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 2: couple inches and what is your analysis taking down? But

446
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 2: I think you have to look at that question in

447
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 2: light of another question we ask, which is which party

448
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 2: has a clear and compelling vision or which party is

449
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 2: just focused on opposing the other side? And if you

450
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 2: look at it through that lens, you have twenty eight

451
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 2: percent of folks say Republicans have a clear compelling vision,

452
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 2: only eleven percent say that about Democrats. Twenty seven percent

453
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: say Republicans are mostly just focused on opposing Democrats rather

454
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: than offering solutions, compared to forty percent saying that Democrats

455
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 2: only are opposing Trump. So this focused on opposing, not

456
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 2: offering solutions. Number is way worse for Democrats. And that's

457
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 2: where I go back to. They may be on track

458
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 2: for a trickle as opposed to a wave because they're

459
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 2: saying all the things that people feel but not connecting

460
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 2: the last mile of actually there being trust that they

461
00:25:58,080 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 2: could do something about it.

462
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 1: Well, all less swing states than there used to be too,

463
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 1: I mean, there's not as many swing states as the

464
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: swing seats rather as there was in twenty eighteen. No,

465
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: I just find it fascinating, especially as you see in

466
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: other polls, aren't yours people say Trump's spending too much

467
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 1: on our foreign policy, not off on domestic policy. And

468
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 1: you know, there are a lot of concerns that people

469
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 1: have over the our currency of the country. All right,

470
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 1: this is a question that has nothing to do with

471
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: the election. But I am completely obsessed with how people

472
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,479
Speaker 1: feel about AI. I have been very much of the

473
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: consensus that people want more regulations on the industry. They

474
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: don't view it as the Internet, they don't view it

475
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: as something that's just going to, you know, change the economy,

476
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 1: but not shut it down.

477
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 2: People.

478
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: If you look at every sphere or almost every sphere

479
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,959
Speaker 1: that AI is touching right now, there's negative connotations around it.

480
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: Does it make you smarter? Or critically think, does it

481
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 1: kind of replace your job? Did it make can it

482
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 1: make errors around military decisions? How do people Americans feel

483
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: about AI right now?

484
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 2: The Internet didn't come on us this quick like. We

485
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 2: have to remember it's only been a few years since

486
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 2: the first jet GPT, which was maybe okay enough to

487
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 2: write two paragraphs for you for a tenth grade writing assignment.

488
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 2: So this technological change is drastic, But there was also

489
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 2: nothing really physical necessary for the Internet to come in,

490
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 2: unlike data centers, and you can't really separate out AI

491
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: from data centers in the mind of voters at all,

492
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 2: even though data centers have been around forever. And then

493
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 2: you throw a partisan problem into this mix, which is

494
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 2: now AI is viewed from a partisan lens, so strongly

495
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 2: Republican voters are saying AI is forty two percent net

496
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: positive forty percent net negative, which is not something I

497
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 2: would write home about and say, look at it's not

498
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 2: a right number. Well, it only gets worse from there.

499
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,040
Speaker 2: Software Republicans fifty percent negative, Independent sixty percent negative. So

500
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 2: overall it's fifty six percent negative. We asked a question

501
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 2: last month about AI and jobs. Will it create more

502
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 2: jobs that it eliminates, or will eliminate more job than

503
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 2: it creates. Sixty two percent of folks that it was

504
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 2: going to eliminate more jobs than it creates. In that survey,

505
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 2: we also asked what do data centers do? And I

506
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 2: see this come out in focus groups all the time.

507
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 2: You go down a conspiratorial rabbit hole real fast in

508
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: a focus group when you bring up the topic of

509
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 2: AI and data centers. And so if people are concerned

510
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: that this is going to eliminate their jobs, and they

511
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 2: believe that it is a net negative for society, they're

512
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 2: not seeing the positive benefits for them. They see these

513
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: massive buildings going up that they see as a scourge

514
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 2: on their neighborhood, their community, making their power more expensive.

515
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 2: It's just it's a really challenging issue landscape, and it's

516
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 2: because it's come on so fast comparatively to other technological transformations.

517
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I was talking with somebody this week can

518
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 2: basically said, imagine going back to an agrarian society and

519
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 2: bringing in John Deere tractors like that is essentially the

520
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 2: speed at which this has gone. We didn't go to

521
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 2: horse drawn, you know, slightly motor powered. We went straight

522
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: from the mule to the John Deere tractor with this

523
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: AI issue. But you maybe bringing up this data point,

524
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: so I don't want to take it out of your mouth,

525
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: but sixty seven percent of folks that it's important for

526
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 2: the US to lead on AI, So like there are

527
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 2: some positive aspects there of like they know we need

528
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 2: to do something about it. They're just absolutely terrified of it.

529
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: Well, and here's what, okay, So this is I'm so

530
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: glad you broughtup the strong Republican point because I was

531
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: with members of the administration, top members administration, and I

532
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: was saying that they really fundamentally believe that AI is

533
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 1: going to create millions of jobs, that it's going to

534
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 1: eliminate the national debt. It is so bullish that it

535
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: sounds a lot like the let's open the market to

536
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: China people in the nineties, Like there is no downside,

537
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: there is only upside. They're only selling you upside. And

538
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: I have heard hopes and dreams before and they have

539
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: very rarely ever worked out. And what you're seeing at

540
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 1: the state level amongst state Republicans is the total opposite.

541
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: You know, for as much as the talking point among

542
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: Republicans is it's either California or Washington, d C. Deciding

543
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: rules around AI, Florida, Dessanta's is majorly cracking down AI.

544
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: Texas is doing it, Tennessee is doing it. That Utah

545
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 1: is going far above and beyond, especially around children's protection,

546
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:54,479
Speaker 1: children's safety. So at the state level, you have a

547
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: remarkably different Republican party.

548
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: Than you do at the Trump administration level.

549
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 1: And I I tried desperately to tell Republican centers in Congress,

550
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: and you need to attach some AI policy. The polling

551
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: is not what you think it is, and you're not

552
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 1: even asking it. And what the Democrats are doing is hey,

553
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: I mean I was. I had Rocanna on this podcast,

554
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: and Rokana said, we need a general wealth tax on

555
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,719
Speaker 1: AI to reach over that money to voters. Now, I

556
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 1: think that's just you know, your open door socialism. That's

557
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: just how socialism will come to you. Uh. It's not

558
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: going to be like the nice kind of redistribution like

559
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: Alaska or Norway.

560
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 2: It's going to be really aggressive.

561
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: But Republicans aren't even They're they're like the administrations making

562
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: the making the rules around AI. This is the federal

563
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: eleven at the sail level, we're just following through and

564
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: I think it's such a mistake and I'm so glad

565
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: you included this question.

566
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 2: Okay, let's talk about Iran.

567
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 1: Because it's obviously the news that's affecting oil prices, affecting everything.

568
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: How are voters feeling about the Iran at the tax

569
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: on Iran?

570
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 2: We have a right side up barely fifty percent support,

571
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 2: five percent opposition. Our survey went into the field. Let

572
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 2: me look at my calendar here on Tuesday, so the

573
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 2: strikes had been happening for multiple days in wall to

574
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 2: wall coverage of the news. But there's a strong partisan divide,

575
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 2: as you would expect, strong Republicans ninety five percent support

576
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 2: all the way down to strong Democrats at not zero

577
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: but thirteen percent support. And interestingly, there are more Democrats

578
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: who support the strikes than Republicans who oppose it, which

579
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 2: is how you end up with a a net plus

580
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 2: four support number. And there's a big gender gap here too,

581
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 2: a fourteen point gap between men and women, which part

582
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: of that is there's a partisan gap between men and women.

583
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 2: But this is larger than the partisan gap is And

584
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 2: then when we ask about some of the questions trying

585
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 2: to understand, you know, what, do Americans understand the threat

586
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 2: that Iran posed and related to the nuclear threat specifically,

587
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 2: you know, we had seventy five percent at least somewhat concerned,

588
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 2: but only twenty eight percent extremely concerned. So the narrative

589
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 2: of taking out the nukes or the nuclear threat that

590
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 2: may come from Iran just kind of falls flat. People

591
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 2: don't believe that that is a pressing threat. And then

592
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: we also asked if people believe America has the readiness

593
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 2: and strength and its military necessary, and only fifty seven

594
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: percent of folks were extremely are very confident in our

595
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: military readiness. I'll be very interested to know if this

596
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: goes well over the next month. And we asked the

597
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: same question again about military readiness. If that number rise out,

598
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: Rhyn's not China, like, I mean, like, let's I mean,

599
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:55,719
Speaker 2: let's have a realistic moment. Everybody that's crazy, that is,

600
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: I mean people I think being overly passimistic about our abilities. Now,

601
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 2: I did ask you this.

602
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: Question in my email, but I'm just wondering if you

603
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: could jog your memory, how did this compare in your

604
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 1: memory to event as well, because that was flawless. Our

605
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 1: operation in Azuela was literally flawless. There was ten out

606
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 1: of ten no mistakes made. Were people? Do you remember

607
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: if voters were more positive about that? Only slightly?

608
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 2: Really our survey we have this amazing pinchette signal to

609
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 2: put a poll in the field right as a massive

610
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 2: world or national event occurs. Those are the first one

611
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 2: where we put it in the field slightly after it occurred. Yeah, Okay, well,

612
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 2: I guess I think I imagine a lot of.

613
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: Foreign policy stuff really does relate to a large portion

614
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: of how do you feel about Trump? If you like Trump,

615
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: you'd like the forim policy. If you don't like me,

616
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 1: you don't like the vote form policy. Okay, Two more

617
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: quick questions that I want to get to. One is

618
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 1: the Save Act. I get more emails from my listeners

619
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: about the Save Act than anything else.

620
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 2: They are on board.

621
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,959
Speaker 1: They that's all they want to talk about, and voter

622
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 1: ideas very pop the voters. How does the Save Act

623
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 1: kind of work with voters? How do they feel about it?

624
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 2: It blows my mind that the Save Act does not

625
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,439
Speaker 2: get passed, and it's our people standing in the way.

626
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: I really felt like Ken Paxton made a very selfless

627
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 2: move in saying, yeah, get out if you nuke the

628
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 2: filibuster and passed the Save Act. And I don't know

629
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: if that was necessarily a I'm selflessly sacrificing myself to

630
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 2: get the Save Act passed or it was I'm going

631
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 2: to call your bluff, Senator thing on this issue because

632
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 2: it has fifty eight percent support independence the numbers basically

633
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 2: in that same spot. The intensity behind the support is

634
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 2: incredibly strong, even among independents. It's got twenty nine percent

635
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 2: support among soft Democrats people who are unsure on the

636
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 2: generic ballot, So the key group that Republicans need to

637
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 2: win in the midterms are sixty seven percent support of

638
00:35:59,080 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 2: the Save Act.

639
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 1: So this is a wave back, super popular. There's no reason,

640
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 1: there's nothing that should stop the Save Act from passing. Yes,

641
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,879
Speaker 1: Like I mean, yeah, obviously, the only thing stopping us

642
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 1: is our politicians. But I'm talking as far as I'm yeah,

643
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: because it makes no sense because the same I mean,

644
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: all the fear that women who get married can't get

645
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 1: devote some. I mean, it's nonsense to goal. It breaks apart.

646
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 1: It falls apart in five seconds flat, and it is

647
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,879
Speaker 1: Republicans from red states, who are the ones who are

648
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 1: opposing this this thing. It's it's quite crazy and it's

649
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: the number one thing my voters are interested in and

650
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 1: asked about why isn't this passing? Okay, one other final question,

651
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 1: because it comes to the time where Democrats are really searching.

652
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 1: They're not in the middle of it. They are towards

653
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 1: the end, I would say, of searching for their identity

654
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: that they're going to lead to twenty twenty eight, and

655
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: it is full blown tax the rich corporations, economic populism.

656
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 1: They're going to quadruple down it. You know, they're keep

657
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 1: saying woke is dead, which it's really not, but woke

658
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 1: is dead. We're all about economic populism. Now, how are

659
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: a voters feeling about big companies, big corporations going into

660
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 1: the mid terms With this understanding, the Democrats are really

661
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: looking at economic populism as there as their trojan horse

662
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: to victory.

663
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 2: Since I've numbered your audience to death, I'll start with

664
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 2: a story. I was doing focus groups in January for

665
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 2: a corporate client. And when you do focus groups, what

666
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,839
Speaker 2: makes a good focus groups is what makes a good poll.

667
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 2: You've got a representative group of whoever you're trying to

668
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 2: understand in the sample, and you get something called a

669
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 2: recruitment grid, and so it's literally like this big eleven

670
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 2: x seventeen print out of you know, Jane is this,

671
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 2: and she is a super strong Republican and pro Trump,

672
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 2: and like, however, she answered all the questions. Our most

673
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 2: Republican woman in this particular group that I was moderating

674
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 2: started a sentence with this, well, you know now that

675
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 2: we're in a post capitalist society. And I had to

676
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 2: go back and look at the grid and I'm like,

677
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 2: did I get the wrong person here that just say that?

678
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 2: And I'm like, nope, I see her name tag and

679
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 2: I see her response here, and it really I had

680
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 2: been feeling this for a while among Republican voters that

681
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 2: I grew up and you probably grew up where politics

682
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 2: was like this line of ideology, and now we're a

683
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: circle of ideology and there is a bipartisan push for

684
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 2: this populism where you've got fifty eight percent of folks

685
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 2: saying regulations are necessary to protect workers and consumers. And

686
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:32,959
Speaker 2: the way we frame this question was that it's either

687
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: to protect that or that they create unnecessary burdens. So

688
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 2: those were your two response options with an den city

689
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,839
Speaker 2: involved in them. Listen to this strong Republicans forty five

690
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: percent necessary, forty eight percent burdensome, like, do I even

691
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 2: need to go on it? Literally the other aspects of

692
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 2: the ideology, because because ideology is now a circle not

693
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 2: a spectrum. And then we ask people do you trust

694
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 2: corporate intentions? Seventy nine percent distrust corporation's intentions. We asked

695
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 2: about their motives. Eighty seven percent of said corporations are

696
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: mainly looking out for their own profits, including seventy seven

697
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: percent of our strongest Republicans. And then we broke this

698
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 2: out into you know, do health insurance companies deny claims

699
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 2: for profit? That's ninety percent of people believe that our

700
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 2: pharmaceutical companies maximizing profits are making money to fund research.

701
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 2: Eighty two percent say it's too it's a profit motive.

702
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,919
Speaker 2: You know, our energy companies taking advantage to consumers? Sixty

703
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 2: nine percent said yes. Like this, this Republican traditional pro

704
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 2: business deregulation brand is really colliding with the public that

705
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 2: is overwhelmingly distrustful of corporations, and they think that you

706
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,720
Speaker 2: are markings, you are blowing.

707
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: My mind now because when Trump went to Congress and

708
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 1: asked for the credit card cap and Republicans said, I

709
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: think it was a Republican center said stop with this

710
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 1: economic upon this populous shit. Trump has always had a

711
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: better finger on the pulse of what the people want

712
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:05,879
Speaker 1: in the Republican Party as a whole, and it's too such.

713
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 1: I have felt this. I have felt that there's this

714
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 1: level of distrust. And one day I was talking to

715
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 1: one of my friends who's I mean, she is like,

716
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 1: miss capitalism USA. Businesses should have no regulations, and she

717
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: said to me, you know, I get a funny feeling

718
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: that there's so much hatred towards corporations. Luis g Manngione

719
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 1: is going to get off. It's going to be to

720
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: that degree of this is how much we hate corporations

721
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 1: right now. And that is and that is why, in

722
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 1: this weird sense, that kind of Trump since twenty sixteen,

723
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: especially in twenty sixteen, kind of showed the light and

724
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 1: very few Republicans ever followed. And it will be very

725
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: curious in my mind if Steve Bannon runs for president

726
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: on a pro economic populist position. I haven't talked to

727
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,280
Speaker 1: seem in a very long time, but there are rumors.

728
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 1: I can I tell you a quick, quick story really quickly.

729
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,760
Speaker 1: I know we have to go, but it's about listening

730
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 1: to people, ordinary Americans do. The survey it was an

731
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 1: only twenty fifteen I got invited to it, and it

732
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 1: was about the Republicans running for president and they were

733
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 1: showing one by one as Ram Paul and it was

734
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 1: Donald Trump yet it and then they wrote Ted Cruz

735
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 1: and this one woman, diehard Republican primary voter, said, I

736
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: don't know what it is about him, but I would

737
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 1: not never let him around my children. And I was like,

738
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: he doesn't have a prayer. I literally says that there is.

739
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 1: He doesn't have a prayer winning this election. If that's

740
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 1: your natural instinct. These focus groups are so fascinating for

741
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 1: that reason. They're so interesting hearing people's raw take on stuff.

742
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 1: Well remember this and we can end on this note.

743
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 1: There were a lot of Trump twenty four, mom, Donnie

744
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: twenty five voters, and that voter base is only going

745
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 1: to grow where people go to read more about Signal

746
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,240
Speaker 1: what you guys do. It's such a great polling company.

747
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: You do fantastic work.

748
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and people only get to see about three percent

749
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 2: of the work we do is public. The other ninety

750
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 2: seven percenter for corporations and candidates and otherwise. But yeah,

751
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 2: an x at Signal cygnl. Our website is Cygn dot

752
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: al and we've got you know, video clips and the like,

753
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 2: and you know, shoot us a note if you're not

754
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 2: seeing something that we should cover, that would be fascinating

755
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:22,280
Speaker 2: to put in our next survey.

756
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for coming to this podcast. I

757
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: really appreciate check out the Signal fantastic work.

758
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Thanks Ryan.

759
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 1: Now it's time for the ask Me Anything segment. If

760
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 1: you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment,

761
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 1: email me Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. It's Ryan

762
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 1: at Numbers Pooral Numbers gamepodcast dot com. This first question

763
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 1: comes from Ryan. He says, not a true ask me anything,

764
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: but I did want to point out that on your

765
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 1: list of books you're reading, you did not mention.

766
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 2: Buck Sexton's book. Have to keep him in mind.

767
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 1: The funny thing is that book texted my dad and

768
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: told him about his book, and he didn't reach out

769
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 1: to me. And I didn't know it was coming out

770
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: until I already came out. So I am very behind on

771
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: my reading. I get very little time to read books.

772
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 1: Book will get on my reading list. I will get

773
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: to it. I'm sure it's a great book. I haven't

774
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 1: read it yet. He didn't even send me a free copy.

775
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,399
Speaker 1: You would think, But no, edit doesn't matter. It's okay.

776
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 1: I'll buy my version. I'm sure it's really good, he said.

777
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 1: Perhaps you've already read there or working through it. Some

778
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 1: chapters are a little long, so it's tough to consume

779
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: for a busy person. Content is awesome might not be

780
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 1: something you can critically review.

781
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 2: I would be honest with people about what I learned.

782
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 3: Here's the problem with political reading political books because they're dated,

783
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,800
Speaker 3: unlike history books, which you can learn a lot from

784
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 3: the New York Book, I'm learning a lot from I

785
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 3: kind of know a.

786
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 2: Lot of the statistics already.

787
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: Douglas Murray's book, which is great, his last few books,

788
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: I kind of knew almost all the information by the

789
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 1: time I was reading it. It was kind of dated. So

790
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 1: that's something about political books for me. I love campaign

791
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: Trail book. I've read every twenty twenty four, every twenty twenty,

792
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: every twenty sixteen book that there is to read. I

793
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 1: love a campaign book, but I kind of know all

794
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 1: this about statistics or most of the time sometimes I

795
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 1: want the stuff.

796
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 2: Love your show, appreciate you, or taken Iran. I was

797
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 2: torn as well.

798
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 1: I'm struggling now given all that they've done for forty

799
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 1: plus years, the rationale is too muddy.

800
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 2: Keep up the great work. Thank you so much, Ryan.

801
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 1: I appreciate last question for the podcast that it comes

802
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: from Mary. She says, wondering if you or anyone else

803
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 1: that's done analysis on the current flight from blue states

804
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:29,919
Speaker 1: to red states and how it compares to white flight

805
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: from the sixties and seventies of people flying East Germany, Cuba,

806
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: Northreek Korea to South Korea. Republicans just start trying to

807
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: win back these cities or you're going to continue to

808
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 1: see a spiral of despair and probably continue to elect

809
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 1: these socialist.

810
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:44,240
Speaker 2: And nut jobs. Mary.

811
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 1: So, Yeah, The New York Times of all places at

812
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: a fantastic write up about people fleeing in where they

813
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 1: moved to, and they not only moved to, they not

814
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 1: only looked at states, but they looked at counties and

815
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 1: it is a great so I mean, going on, it's

816
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 1: kind of why Republicans used to have city council seats

817
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 1: or state legislative site seats like in Milwaukee, and they

818
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 1: don't anymore because blue counties attract now blue voters and

819
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: red counties attract red voters. That's why you're seeing so

820
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: many Republicans from California going to Denton and Colin County, Texas,

821
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 1: and not Dallas County proper. Maybe there are a few

822
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 1: because there's like a night one like nice Republican neighborhood

823
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 1: in Dallas, but in their going to the suburbs or

824
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 1: in Denton and Collin County that are Republican. And I

825
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 1: think you're placing the same thing for Republicans from New

826
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 1: York and New Jersey going to Florida. It's not everyone

827
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 1: going to Florida and jacking up the Republican registration. Is

828
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 1: not just organically, you know, the Republican registration being jacked

829
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 1: or rather is not just Native Floridians. It's a lot

830
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 1: of them moving there who are Republican. That being said,

831
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,280
Speaker 1: I wish that there was a conversation happening among Republicans

832
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: who are moving in sut You know, guys, a couple

833
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: of people move to Florida, go to Pennsylvania. Go to

834
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 1: North Carolina, start patting those other swings days, go to Georgia,

835
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 1: don't give it all to Florida. But the New York

836
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 1: Times article on this, it's a very it's an interactive graphic.

837
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 2: It's really really good. They do a better job describing that.

838
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 2: I can.

839
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: You can really look up who's moving, what and where.

840
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: So check that out. All right, guys, that's this episode

841
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: of this podcast.

842
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening. If you like this

843
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 2: episode and.

844
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 1: You like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the

845
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, where ever gets your podcast.

846
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:30,359
Speaker 2: Give me a five star review.

847
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: It does help promote the podcast, and please subscribe on YouTube.

848
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 2: I will talk to you guys on Wednesday. Have a

849
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 2: great day.