1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,640 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros College 2 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: Football look Ahead, where we break down all of the 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:10,799 Speaker 1: lines that have just dropped for the fresh college football week. 4 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: We are going to be comparing them too. Thors adjusted 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: lines and totals himself, and we're going to be coming 6 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: up with the best possible bets that you're going to 7 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 1: want to jump on before those lines move for the 8 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: rest of the week. Thor, it was another exciting college 9 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: football Saturday. We saw plenty of upsets. Are you ready 10 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: for Week three? 11 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: I absolutely am, yeah, And what a day to be alive. 12 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 3: Both the Kansas Jayhawks and the Syracuse Orange are two 13 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 3: and o one undefeeded, so we're both sitting pretty right now. 14 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 2: And yeah, I'm ready to turn the page for Week three. 15 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: I am sensing another Kansas Syracuse national championship in our future. 16 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: I think that's what we're gonna see here. My friend, 17 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: as long as a Keem. 18 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: Warwick doesn't block a shot that causes kids is to 19 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: lose in. 20 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:58,279 Speaker 1: It all time great shot block here. Thorn Eistrom are 21 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: college football expert. I'm tops Viola, and this is going 22 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: to be a doozy of a show, Ladies and gentlemen, 23 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: let's jump right on in here with our first game 24 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: up on the board. Liberty is taken on wake Forest. 25 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: The Demon Deacons are laying seventeen points here, and you 26 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: think that that is just too many points based on 27 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: your total? 28 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. 29 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know a part of of course, Sam 30 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 3: Hartman came back last week. You know that was announced 31 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 3: a couple of days before at the Vanner maybe one 32 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 3: day before the Vanderbilt game. That had shifted the line 33 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 3: in a big way. It was it was wake Forest 34 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 3: minus six and a half, it goes up. I think 35 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 3: it might have closed at thirteen and a half, might 36 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 3: have even gotten up to fourteen for a little bit. 37 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 3: Wake ended up covering either number. So now I think 38 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 3: that whereas the market before you're sort of wondering, like 39 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 3: Hartman in his first game, you know, like, you know, 40 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: how's he going to do? 41 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: Did all right against Vanderbilt? 42 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 3: You know Vanderbilt was too and old though, but you 43 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 3: know prior to that, and now it seems like the 44 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 3: market is has the confidence back in wake Forest, whereas 45 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 3: with Liberty. Liberty was one of my favorite bets last 46 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 3: week when they were playing UAB, they six and a 47 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 3: half point underdog. I picked them to win that game outright, 48 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 3: and they ended up doing that. I'm still pretty bullish, 49 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 3: and certainly more bullish on Liberty than the market is. 50 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 3: I still feel like Liberty has gotten toggled down because 51 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 3: Charlie Brewer broke his hand and his out for a 52 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 3: month or a month and a half. But we saw 53 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 3: Keiden Salter against ua uab is one of the best 54 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,679 Speaker 3: G five defenses. Liberty was able to move the ball there, 55 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 3: and Keidon Salter brought several different elements of the offense 56 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 3: they did not have with Charlie Brewer, namely athleticism and 57 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 3: arm strength. So you know, the dimensions of the field 58 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 3: change a little bit with Keeton Salter back there. 59 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 2: I think that this. 60 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 3: Number is a little bit rich, and I'm probably gonna 61 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 3: end up being on the underdog in it. 62 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: All right, The next game up here is gonna be 63 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: Toledo versus Ohio State. I have a feeling this is 64 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: gonna be one epic battle for Ohio. They are the 65 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: Buck guys thirty one and a half point favorites here, 66 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: And are you at all perturbed by what we've seen 67 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: from the Buck guys? Now? Yes, the notre Dame game 68 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: not great, but they were able to come back and 69 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: have a solid performance last week. 70 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't say perturbed. I think you can explain it. 71 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 3: You know what's going on sort of with the offense 72 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:13,959 Speaker 3: not being quite as explosive as we thought it was 73 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 3: going to be. Losing the two first round receivers and 74 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 3: then Jackson Smith and Jig. But they have not had 75 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 3: access to him since the first half of the Notre 76 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 3: Dame game. He suffers that injury, then he was withheld 77 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 3: in this past week's game. It seems like he might 78 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 3: be missing this this coming week as well. At least 79 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 3: Ryan Day had indicated that in his comments to the 80 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 3: media right before this past weekend's game. Julian Fleming one 81 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 3: of the other issues for Ohas State this past weekend. 82 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 3: Julian Fleming was also ruled out of the game. So 83 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 3: you were down to you know, Marvin Harrison and egg 84 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 3: Buka and then the guys behind them we don't really 85 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 3: know very much about or whatever. Did not have the 86 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 3: legitimate wide receiver three that Ohio State always has. 87 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 2: They always have a first rounder that's that's their wide 88 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 2: receiver three. 89 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 3: But they're down to two stud receivers, which almost any 90 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 3: other team in the nation would be happy with one 91 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 3: stud in Ohio State has two. But I think that's 92 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,119 Speaker 3: the difference between you know, where we thought Ohio State 93 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 3: would be and right now and again without especially without 94 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 3: Smith and Jigba. 95 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 2: I think this line is rich as well. 96 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 3: You mentioned that Ohio State opens at minus thirty one 97 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 3: and a half my adjusted line on it, which isn't 98 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 3: even baking in the Smith and Jigba injury. Like you know, 99 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 3: I'm not baking in all that. The injuries on the 100 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 3: lines just what it would be in a vacuum both 101 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 3: team's full strength. Ohio State is favored by twenty seven 102 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 3: point four in my numbers. I like Toledo. I was 103 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 3: on there over. It was one of my favorite overbats 104 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,359 Speaker 3: over the summer. I think that they're a solid squad. 105 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 3: They haven't really gotten the shot to sort of strut 106 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 3: their stuff. Week one, I forget I think they're playing 107 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 3: an FCSC But this past weekend they were playing a 108 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 3: CLASI FCS team in UMass and they just drop kick them. 109 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 3: But I think that they should be able to hold 110 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 3: this game within you stay within thirty thirty one and 111 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 3: a half points. 112 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: I'm playing the world's tiniest violin here for Ohio State's 113 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: receiver woes. It worries me a lot, a little bit 114 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: about c J. Stroud and what we're going to see 115 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 1: out of him at the NFL level. I know that 116 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: he's so hyped right now, and with good reason. He's 117 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 1: looked certainly the part, but the receivers that he's had 118 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 1: to throw to have just been an embarrassment of riches. 119 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: We'll see if Toledo can hold them in this one. 120 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: Like you said, those injuries gonna play a big part. 121 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: Texas A and m did not have a good weekend 122 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: to see the least here. Now they get to go 123 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: play the Miami Hurricanes. They are five and a half 124 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: point favorites. Are you out on the Aggies? Johnny Manziel 125 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: said he has two years left of eligibility. Could he 126 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: come too, well. 127 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 3: Unless Mike Evans gets some eligibility back as well, I 128 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 3: don't think that'll save Ada for this Covied season. But 129 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 3: I'm not going to say that I'm out on them, 130 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 3: but I will say I was very surprised when this 131 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 3: line dropped, and it's still live right now. 132 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 2: Texas A and AM minus five and a half, Miami 133 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:54,559 Speaker 2: is a really really good team. 134 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 3: And generally when teams are coming off the loss of 135 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 3: the poor performance, and we're gonna get to a couple 136 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:01,919 Speaker 3: of these games that I'm describing coming up here. But 137 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,840 Speaker 3: the line, it's it's reflective of that, you know, and 138 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 3: that's a lot of times we'll see like overreactions. 139 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 2: This line, to me, seems like an. 140 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 3: Overreaction in a M's favor even though they had, you know, 141 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,119 Speaker 3: they took a crap on Kyle Field against Apple Atrian 142 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 3: State on Saturday when they're players in the in the 143 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 3: pregame pep rally on Friday, we're making jokes about nobody 144 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 3: knows where Apple Atrian State is, we don't even know 145 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 3: if they play, and you know in D one and 146 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 3: they were making all these jokes at Appy State's you 147 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 3: know whatever expense, and then they go out and they. 148 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 2: Super duper sluggish on offense. 149 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 3: The game was basically the exact opposite is Appy States. 150 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 3: The week before, we definitely have to toggle up Appy State. 151 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 3: Appy State was running up and down the field with 152 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 3: North Carolina that they were they got in the shootout game, 153 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 3: should have won it. Chase Bryce Airmail a wide open 154 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 3: kid on the two point conversion that would have won 155 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 3: the game. They end up losing that one in overtime 156 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 3: by that point. And then the next week against Texas 157 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 3: A and M, you beat them seventeen to fourteen going 158 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 3: into to college stage. And the first one was in boom, 159 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 3: but this past one was in college station. So yeah, 160 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 3: I And then as far as this one, I just 161 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 3: think that the line is too high. My just the 162 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 3: line on this one is Texas A and M minus 163 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 3: one point three. Again, I'm I'm I'm rather confused as 164 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 3: to why if it was dropped here, this would be 165 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 3: more the line of if A and M had just 166 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 3: you know, won solidly against Apple Legend State, that would 167 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 3: have been more what you would expect the line to be. 168 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 3: But I'm very surprised after the showing that A and 169 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 3: M just had that that this line is opening up 170 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 3: more that way. I do like Miami in that one. 171 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: The next game up here that we've got Michigan State 172 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: versus Washington Miss State minus two in this one right now, 173 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: and you have this game pegged the complete opposite way. 174 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I do, you know, And so this is one 175 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 3: where I'm gonna have to think through this one and 176 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 3: handicap it this week because I'm probably more bullish on 177 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 3: Washington than my numbers are, and my numbers, you know, 178 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 3: like at this point, it's like eighty percent of them 179 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 3: are still based on last year's data and stuff like that, 180 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 3: and like twenty percent, and then as you go forward 181 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 3: each week, you're adding percentages to the data from this 182 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 3: year against last year. Washington was terrible last year, but 183 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 3: it was an entirely different staff. Like that, that team, 184 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 3: all they could do was defend the pass. They stunk 185 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 3: defending the run. Their offense was an abomination. Now you 186 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,239 Speaker 3: bring in Caleb to Borr, who is basically the inverse 187 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 3: of Jimmy Lake. Like Jimmy Lake, the previous head coach 188 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: was a guy who, you know, it's like a dB 189 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 3: leading type guy, and his team that was the only 190 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 3: thing that they were good at because he coached up 191 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 3: the secondary and the strategy at the defense was to 192 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 3: put the secondary in good spots. Whereas now you have 193 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 3: a true offensive coach and Caleb de bor a guy 194 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 3: wherever he has gone, the offense has ticked way up immediately. 195 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 3: And he brought in his old friend Michael Pennix, who 196 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 3: has looked pretty good so far. Washington's too, And oh, 197 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 3: they haven't really played anyone yet though you know this 198 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 3: past week and they blew off Partland State, you're sort 199 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 3: of wondering on them. We're gonna get a much better 200 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 3: idea of Washington seeing them play Michigan State qualitatively. Where 201 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 3: are they at in game three of the debor era. 202 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 3: My number on it is Michigan State minus three and 203 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 3: a half. But again, I'm definitely more bullish on Washington 204 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 3: than my numbers are. So this is a game that 205 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm gonna look very deeply too this week. 206 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 3: But this was not one of the discrepancies right when 207 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 3: the lines jumped where it had me running to the 208 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 3: window to buy a ticket because I need to get 209 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 3: my head straight on both of these two teams before. 210 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: I bet it. 211 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: And first off, I think I might have misspoken there. 212 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: I might have said Michigan State was the favorite, Washington 213 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: favored by two in case I wasn't clear. And you 214 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 1: bring up a really good point there about when you 215 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: start tossing out data from last year, how you really 216 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: mix that blend. At what point in the season are 217 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: you completely moved over to data for this season and 218 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: you're saying, Okay, this is just who this team is now. 219 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 3: It's I mean, it's really not until like game ten, 220 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 3: and it might be game nine. I would have to 221 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 3: look at like the progression of the percentages, but it's 222 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 3: somewhere in there where then it just totally flips over. 223 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 3: But you don't want to toss out the baby with 224 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 3: the bathwater sort of and just go to the numbers, 225 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 3: you know, all this year this early, because what's the 226 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 3: most predictive thing for the future. 227 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 2: It's what has happened in the. 228 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 3: Past, and especially the recent pass so you can't just 229 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 3: toss it all. But especially this year with the unprecedented 230 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 3: player movement in the offseason with the transfers and then 231 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 3: we got way more coaching staff changes than in a 232 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:38,479 Speaker 3: typical offseason. And with some of these teams, the strategy, 233 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 3: the way they play is totally different than from last year, 234 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 3: and the roster is also very different. Like there's obviously 235 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 3: an enormous difference between Michael Pennix and then Hoarde and 236 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 3: Morris and some of those different guys that they've tossed 237 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 3: out over the last couple of years. So they made 238 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 3: an enormous upgrade there, which which ticks up their receiving core, 239 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 3: makes life easier on the offensive line and the running game, 240 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, I mean you 241 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 3: have to have last year's data in it, and so yeah, 242 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 3: but like you know, you cut it like by ten, 243 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,199 Speaker 3: you know, twelve percent whatever each week until gets down 244 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 3: to zero. 245 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: That is really surprising to me that it would be 246 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: that late in the season next but I think you'd 247 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: say something like three or four or five games, because 248 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: especially with the amount of changeover you alluded to it, 249 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: the players moving in the transfer portal, the fact that 250 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: it's not the pros. You have players leaving every year. 251 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: Your team looks very different every year. It surprises me 252 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: that you would hold on to data for so long. There. 253 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 4: Well, it's just because it has predictive value, right Like, 254 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 4: if it didn't if last year's results in last year's 255 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 4: data and the way that the offensive the defense played, 256 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 4: if it wasn't predictive in some way, then it would 257 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 4: just be all this year's data starting out right away 258 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 4: in the season, like after the first game or whatever. 259 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 3: But of course you have flu key performances, you know, 260 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 3: like week zero, week one. 261 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 2: We had some some flu key performances. 262 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 3: I think we're already starting to see, you know, some 263 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 3: of them was just someone had a good day at 264 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 3: the office and someone didn't. And so you can't completely 265 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 3: base your numbers off that because it is going to 266 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 3: give you wildly skewed lines against what the Vegas one is. 267 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 3: Vegas the way that they're making these numbers, it's very similar, 268 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 3: like they're power ratings. It's not too far off from 269 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 3: mine and the methodology behind it. So you know, as 270 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 3: long as your numbers are somewhere within the ballpark of 271 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 3: the Vegas numbers, like overall, you know you're sort of 272 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 3: on the right path. And then you just find the 273 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 3: ones where they're painted outside the lines where you can 274 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 3: explain it to yourself as a perception versus reality thing, 275 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 3: and then you can buy a ticket on one where 276 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 3: you feel like you're getting an advantage there. 277 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 1: Now, the next game up on the board that we 278 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:36,239 Speaker 1: have here, Kansas State. You got case State lanes sixteen 279 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,320 Speaker 1: at home against Tulane. Where are you going in this game? 280 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I definitely lean two lane right now. My 281 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 3: adjsed line in this game is Kansas State minus ten 282 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,559 Speaker 3: point two Kansas State is you're gonna have to pay 283 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 3: a little bit of a tax, especially early in the week. 284 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 3: Like I would predict that this line is going to 285 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 3: come down and be closer to like thirteen and a 286 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: half fourteen by game day, but like you know, especially 287 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 3: early in the week, you have to pay this tax 288 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 3: on Kansas State because. 289 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 2: They look really good this past weekend. 290 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 3: You know, there was I didn't love Missouri, you know, 291 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 3: coming into the season, but there were some people that 292 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 3: like Missouri and Kansas State really controlled that game against 293 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 3: Missouri that this past weekend ended up winning it forty 294 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 3: to twelve, you know, I mean, but like you know, 295 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:21,959 Speaker 3: even ear like it was twenty to three at halftime, 296 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 3: was when I sort of you know, tune now went 297 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,719 Speaker 3: out and flicked to my other games on my other 298 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 3: screen because you know, Kansasitate just ran away, but they 299 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 3: can controlled the entire game. I think because of the 300 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 3: way that that game progressed, there's a little bit of 301 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 3: line inflation here. But what I would what I would 302 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 3: tell people is Tulane should be getting more respect than this. 303 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 3: Last week they beat Elkhorn State fifty two or nothing, 304 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 3: and the week before they beat up on UMass forty 305 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 3: two to ten, so that you know the ninety four 306 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 3: to ten and they played two crappy opponents. But I 307 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 3: think there's reasons to be optimistic or reasons to believe 308 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 3: in Tulane. They brought back a ton of guys, a 309 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 3: ton of guys their quarterback, a lot of their offense, 310 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 3: of line, most of their skill players. They brought back 311 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 3: a bunch of guys on defense as well. I don't 312 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 3: have the returning experience metrics right in front of me, 313 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 3: but they were, you know, top twenty, top twenty five, whatever, 314 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 3: and then I know that they it's a team that 315 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,959 Speaker 3: I was coaching continuity, and I can tell you the 316 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 3: coaches where they did not have the continuity. It wasn't 317 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 3: those coaches' choice. It was too late and wanted them out. 318 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 3: I can tell you right now. The offensive cordiator last year, 319 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 3: Chip Long. They did not like Chip Loong. The players 320 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 3: didn't like him. The Willy Fritz didn't like him. Willie Fritz. 321 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 3: You don't even have to read much between the lines 322 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 3: about what you know what he was talking about Chiplong 323 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 3: over the offseason, even towards the end of last season, 324 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 3: to like to see that he was talking mad crap 325 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 3: on chiplong, Like it would be stuff like they hired 326 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 3: a new offensive coordinator and like, oh, Willy, what you know, 327 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 3: tell us about this guy? And he'd be like, well, 328 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 3: I'm just excited to play in a game again where 329 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 3: everyone in the stadium doesn't know what's coming. It's you know, 330 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 3: I'm exaggerating a bit, but those were kind of the 331 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 3: comments that were being made. I think Tulane's roster is 332 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 3: certainly better overall than it was last year by a 333 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 3: decent amount, a couple of steps up again. The coaching 334 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 3: staff and the schematics are more on point this year 335 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 3: for sure, and there's not sort of like the in 336 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 3: fighting and the resentment or whatever is going on there. 337 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 3: But plus, as you'll recall, Michael Pratt was he would 338 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 3: get injured last year, you know, in and out of 339 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 3: the lineup a little bit. He's a very tough kid. 340 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 3: He gutted through a couple of injuries that he probably 341 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 3: should not have gutted through. You know, I think there 342 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 3: was one with the shoulder he took. He took some 343 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 3: shots in the head as well, and so that dragged 344 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 3: the team's performance down a little bit, where they were 345 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 3: a more talented team than they showed last year. Again, 346 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 3: they got all the guys coming back. Pratt's been healthy 347 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 3: to this point. I do like Tulane in this game. 348 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm about with you. I can't say that 349 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: I'm watching too much Case State basketball. So far basketball? 350 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: Where am I at all this season? But the next 351 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: game up here Buffalo at at Coastal Carolina. Buffalo did 352 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: not have a fun weekend at all, and now they 353 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: find themselves as nineteen and a half point dogs to 354 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina in this one. And you're actually leaning a 355 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: little bit with Buffalo here I am. 356 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 3: It's one of those where you're gonna you know, it's 357 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 3: like a hold your nose bet. 358 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 2: You got to take a little bit of a leap 359 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 2: of faith with Buffalo. 360 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 3: You were mentioning that they lost at home to Holy 361 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 3: Cross over the over the weekend. 362 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 2: It wasn't as bad, not great. 363 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 3: It wasn't as bad as there was a couple of 364 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 3: teams that got smoked at home by SCSS. This past 365 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 3: weekend was a super wonky week you know, relative to 366 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 3: what we thought was gonna happen. But obviously that was 367 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 3: not good, right, But I will say, look at Coastal 368 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 3: Carolina's game. They also played an FCS team. They ended 369 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 3: up winning it, but it was just by four points. 370 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 3: They were playing Gardner Webb, right, they win thirty one 371 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 3: to twenty seven, and if you like look into the 372 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 3: box score, the vance stat stuff like that, Gardner Webb 373 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 3: maybe deserve to win that game. It was one where 374 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 3: Coastal ended up stealing it. Now, Coastal looked pretty good 375 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 3: in the first game against Army. They beat Army by 376 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 3: ten points. But one thing I've been watching for early 377 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 3: in the season, I think we got a downgrade that 378 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 3: the Service Academy is a little bit that the triple 379 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,160 Speaker 3: option running teams a little bit because the rule about 380 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 3: the cut blocks and you can't do it outside the 381 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 3: tackle box stuff like that. 382 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 2: The teams that it hurts. It's trip lotching teams. 383 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 3: You don't see other teams cut blocking all the time, 384 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:33,199 Speaker 3: like outside tackle box whatever. So it's that's something that 385 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 3: I think hurt the Service Academies a little bit. And 386 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 3: that was Army's first game playing under the new rules 387 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 3: when they played Coastal, so I think that context deserves 388 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 3: to be mentioned. And like I said, but Coastal ended 389 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 3: up beating their FCS opponent, but it was just as embarrassing, 390 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 3: Like looking into the advanced nets, they. 391 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 2: Played just as poorly. 392 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 3: Coastal is a team, you know, I was just talking about, 393 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 3: you know, with Tulane, a team that brought everybody back. 394 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 3: Coastal did bring Grayson mccallback, so I don't think people 395 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 3: quite realize how much they lost, but they lost so 396 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 3: much around him. I think they only brought back like 397 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 3: three offensive starters, and they there was a few more 398 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 3: on defense, but not by many. I think they only 399 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 3: returned single digit starters. And you had some studs there, right, like, 400 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 3: isja likely? 401 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 2: You know? Obviously we all know IJA likely. That was 402 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 2: a big loss for them. 403 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 3: Their receiver, I didn't think that ended up getting drafted, 404 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 3: but was a really solid player for them, highlay and 405 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,959 Speaker 3: so anyway, a little bit lower on Coastal Buffalo. 406 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 2: I'm not saying that. 407 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 3: I'm high on on Buffalo, but in terms of the 408 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 3: Vegas number against mine, I just think it's still too inflated. 409 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 3: Because people know who Coastal is, they know that they 410 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 3: have them a call, and Coastal happened to win their 411 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 3: first two games, even though they weren't terribly impressive In 412 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:47,959 Speaker 3: the last one. I'm going to take the value on 413 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 3: that one just because I think it's my line on it. 414 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 3: It is Coastal Carolina minus thirteen, so I'm showing like 415 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 3: six and a half points of line value. 416 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:57,640 Speaker 2: On the Buffalo side, I'm going to hold my nose 417 00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 2: and jump on that one. 418 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 3: But I will say for people out there, this one 419 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 3: you could probably wait on a little bit because I 420 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 3: don't think the market is going to see this one 421 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 3: the way that I do, especially when people start looking 422 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 3: into Buffalo losing at home to holy Cross last week. 423 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 3: So I would wait on this one because it could 424 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,199 Speaker 3: still drop the other way and you're not gonna lose 425 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 3: any value, like you know, dropping beneath the nineteen and 426 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 3: then that the eighteen mark. It doesn't start to get 427 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 3: relevan until you drop a low seventeen and a half 428 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 3: because those aren't aren't key numbers. But you could wait 429 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 3: for it. On the other side, it's at nineteen and 430 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 3: a half right now. All we got to do is 431 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 3: get this thing toggled up. I mean twenty and a half. 432 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 3: You're over one semi key number. Once it gets up 433 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 3: to twenty one, now you're on an enormous key number. 434 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 3: So I think, you know, Buffalo folks probably should wait 435 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 3: and then just see what happens with the line. But 436 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 3: I do lean Buffalo early in the week. 437 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: The good news for Buffalo folks is also I don't 438 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: think there's gonna be that many people rushing to bet 439 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: on them. They might be able to get a better 440 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: number on with Coastal Carolina hopefully taking some money. But 441 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: what about the Hoosiers, my friend, they are playing Western Kentucky. 442 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 1: There seven point home favorites here. Do you like the 443 00:19:58,200 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: Hoosiers in this one? 444 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 3: No, I don't. I like the other side. I like 445 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 3: the dogging it. My My line on it is is 446 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 3: dang near. 447 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 2: A pick wow? 448 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: That is that's just about a seven point discrepancy exactly. 449 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, And in fact I actually have Western Kentucky favor 450 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 3: by one point two points. The market has been higher 451 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 3: on Indiana than me certainly. Like you know, we were 452 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 3: talking about this was it two weeks ago on the 453 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 3: show about the Illinois Indiana spread when that came out 454 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 3: and it opened at Indiana minus four in Illinois had 455 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 3: just annihilated Wyoming, and like I was just really confused 456 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 3: by that. Indiana did end up pulling that game out, 457 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 3: but they got a huge assist from Brett Beilam. They 458 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 3: probably Indiana should not have won that game. And then 459 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 3: last week it's sort of like what I was talking 460 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 3: about with Coastal. People are just gonna look at the 461 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 3: you know, the you know, first of all Indiana's record, 462 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 3: but then also looking back at last week results, you're 463 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 3: gonna see that they beat an FCS team by thirteen points, 464 00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 3: and you'll be like, Okay, that's fine. They played Idaho, 465 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 3: not a very good FCS team. Idaho, though, was leading 466 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 3: for a long portions of that game. They in fact, 467 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 3: they led ten to nothing at halftime, so that they 468 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 3: really controlled the first half, and some of his struggles 469 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 3: with the Indiana offense that I expected to see manifested more. 470 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 3: You saw those in the first half. Now, now Indiana 471 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 3: did have, you know, come out and have a solid 472 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:23,679 Speaker 3: second half so that they could come back and end 473 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 3: up winning by double digits themselves. But I do think 474 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 3: that this line is inflated, and this is even coming 475 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 3: from someone that is not an enormous believer in Western Kentucky. 476 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 3: They are certainly not last year's Western Kentucky. They've they've 477 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 3: definitely toggled down. I think they're also too and zero, 478 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 3: but their wins have come over. I think it was 479 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 3: an FCS team and then Hawaii of course in their opener. 480 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 3: But I just think this line is pulling it too 481 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 3: far the other way for Indiana when objectively these two 482 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 3: teams are are far closer qualitatively. 483 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 2: You're gonna give me a touch that. I'm taking that 484 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 2: all day with the underdog. 485 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: Hey, I mean, that has got to be one of 486 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 1: the most one of the biggest repencies that you have 487 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,160 Speaker 1: on this board here. I'm not high on Indiana either. 488 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 1: They They've done nothing to jump off the page for me. 489 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 1: But that's not the highest game that you have on 490 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 1: your board here because there is one more Western Michigan 491 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: hosting Pit Pit. We know what a wild game they 492 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: had this past week, and Western Michigan ten point dogs 493 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 1: in this spot, and you think they are getting too 494 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: much credit here, You think the books are just too 495 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 1: low on Pit. 496 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 3: I do, yeah, And I've been beating this drum for 497 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks and boys have been frustrated. 498 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 3: I Backpit both their their first two games, the first 499 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 3: one they win it by a touchdown, but I lost 500 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 3: the bet by the hook because it was it was. 501 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,160 Speaker 2: Pitt minus seven and a half. They end up winning 502 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 2: by seven. 503 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 3: This past week, everything that I saw in my handicap, 504 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 3: like most people were on Tennessee. You know, I'm like 505 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 3: that line had open whatever it was, Tennessee minus four 506 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,159 Speaker 3: or four and a half whatever, and then it had 507 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 3: gotten yanked all the way up to you know, six 508 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 3: and a half or whatever it was because people believed 509 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 3: in Tennessee, didn't did not believe in pitt The things 510 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,239 Speaker 3: I was seeing in my handicap, those bore out on 511 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 3: the field. Pitt controlled a lot of that game. You know, 512 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 3: it's especially early on, but then uh, you know, then 513 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 3: Tennessee ends up forcing overtime and. 514 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 2: They win it by seven. In overtime. Tennessee dies. 515 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 3: So it was another I'm now over to with pet 516 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 3: betting on pitt having lost by a combined one point 517 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 3: in both of those two games combined. So that's a 518 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 3: bit frustrating. But I still believe that I'm seeing Pittsburgh 519 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 3: clearer than the marketplaces. You know, they they Pittsburgh played 520 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 3: better against West Virginia, I think, than the market expected. 521 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 3: They absolutely played better against Tennessee than the market expected. 522 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 3: A lot of people thought that Tennessee was going to 523 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 3: ball race them, so circumstances sort of cost is there. 524 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 3: But in this one, I think maybe we can get 525 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 3: our money back on Pitt because Western Michigan is not 526 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 3: good Western Michigan. The past couple of years, you know, 527 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 3: they evoke in your had like an explosive offensive team, 528 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 3: and you know, in a team that's been you know, 529 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 3: pretty solid for a long time, you fleck and then 530 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 3: you know the lester and stuff like that. The past 531 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,959 Speaker 3: couple of years you had sky More and then Elebi. 532 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 3: You know that their passing attack was just awesome, and 533 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 3: they still have the running backs that came back, but 534 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,439 Speaker 3: they lost those two guys LB and sky Moore. They 535 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 3: also lost a bunch of you know, guys around them 536 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 3: that they were on the very very low end of 537 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 3: their returning experience chart, and again losing your best players 538 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 3: as well. 539 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,959 Speaker 2: So I'm absolutely lower on them, and I think Pitt 540 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,199 Speaker 2: is they're getting downgraded a bit because of some of 541 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 2: these near misses. And then they lost last week in overtime. 542 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 2: They would have been two and zero if they hadn't. 543 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 2: I think we're getting a huge disc go here. Because 544 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 2: of all those things. And again Western Michigan's a fade 545 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 2: team for me. Anyway, my line on this game is 546 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 2: it's PITT minus nineteen. So I'm showing almost double digits 547 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 2: a line value on Pitt. And this is the one 548 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 2: that I think we're going to get paid back for 549 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 2: those very two, two very near miss losses that we 550 00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,679 Speaker 2: had on pet Well. 551 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 1: I issue the best of luck in that one. As 552 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: long as Pitt isn't beating Syracus, I am perfectly okay 553 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 1: with taking them in a game. One more here on 554 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 1: discrepancies before we get into some of the big games. 555 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: But Georgia Southern taking on UAB. Uh, the spread is 556 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: eleven in favor of UAB, but you are going the 557 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:19,360 Speaker 1: opposite way. 558 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, And this is you know, I was talking before 559 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 3: about results the week before and then you know, some 560 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:30,880 Speaker 3: overreactions stuff like that. So the line, like you said, 561 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 3: it's minus eleven ua B minus eleven. My spread on 562 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 3: this game is UAB minus fifteen point one. I recall 563 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 3: I faded UAB last week. You know, I took Liberty. 564 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,360 Speaker 3: I thought Liberty would upset you a B. They ended 565 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 3: up upsetting UAB. But now I'm gonna flip to the 566 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:51,440 Speaker 3: other side, and I'm gonna be backing UAB because the 567 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 3: perception of it, it's it's on the other side is 568 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 3: Georgia Southern. 569 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 2: Well, I mean it's fall sides because U A. 570 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,879 Speaker 3: B just got upset, but specifically on the Georgia Southern side, 571 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 3: because everyone and their mother saw Georgia Southern just upset 572 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 3: Nebraska and then it costs Scott Frost his job. The 573 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 3: acts immediately fell on Scott Frost, and so you know, 574 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,880 Speaker 3: publicly right now, Georgia Southern is way more in people's consciousness. 575 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 3: They're they're way more confident in backing them than they 576 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 3: would have been before. But let's not forget what this is. 577 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 3: This is he had Clay Heilton, who has never been 578 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,360 Speaker 3: known as an ex's and o's guy. He's always been 579 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 3: described as a relationship guy and a solid recruiter, not 580 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,160 Speaker 3: XES and o's. He go, he gets fired from USC, 581 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 3: he ends up taking the Georgia Southern job. Georgia Southern 582 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,879 Speaker 3: is a school that has had run the triple option 583 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 3: for two decades before that, and it's you know, Clay 584 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 3: Helton has started certainly faster than we thought, you know, 585 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 3: you know, with this upset and now they're to and no. 586 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 3: But just you know, look at Georgia Tech with with 587 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,920 Speaker 3: you know, Jeff Collins had taken that over from Paul Johnson. 588 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 3: Jeff Collins a guy who had a lot of success 589 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 3: before at at at at Temple. He goes over there 590 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,120 Speaker 3: to Georgia Tech. He the same thing that Helton's trying 591 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 3: to do. Now take a triple option running roster and 592 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,720 Speaker 3: team and then switch it into you know, more in 593 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 3: Collins's case, more pro style in Helton's case, more spread 594 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 3: and air a type concepts. But Collins has struggled mightily 595 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 3: in doing that. You know, he's like nine and twenty 596 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 3: three year whatever over, you know, and now he's in 597 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 3: year four. I'm not sure that Jeff Collins is going 598 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 3: to make it out this year. That context, I feel 599 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 3: like is it's important to note here because I think 600 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 3: Nebraska they were a team that arrived this season dead 601 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 3: on arrival. I think their players knew, you know, like 602 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 3: if anything bad happens, Frost is gone, so you know, 603 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 3: then we're thinking about the next coaching staff and different 604 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,720 Speaker 3: stuff like that. The fan base there, every time something 605 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 3: bad happened to the other team had a good play 606 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 3: it would get dead silent in there, like it was 607 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,400 Speaker 3: just really awkward. Nebraska made a horrible trev Albert dead 608 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 3: by bringing back Scott Frost wasn't good, and Georgia Southern 609 00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,199 Speaker 3: happened to get the opportunity to ambush them when it 610 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 3: was like you know, last writes time for Scott Frost 611 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 3: and they give Clay Helton like the spike to stick 612 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 3: in his hard or whatever. 613 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 2: But I don't think that that has predictive value going forward. 614 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,400 Speaker 3: I mentioned before UAB has had one of the best 615 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 3: defenses in the G five going back several years. Last 616 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 3: week they had to prepare for a liberty team that 617 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:19,879 Speaker 3: was playing a quarterback that was totally different than the 618 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 3: quarterback before him. UAB did not have tape on Keiden Salter, 619 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 3: so it was sort of a difficult task. 620 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:26,120 Speaker 2: Stuff like that. 621 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 3: But just in a vacuum, like I said, I think 622 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 3: this line should be like UAD minus fifteen. 623 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 2: I think you're getting. 624 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 3: Value on UAB just because they got upset last week 625 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 3: and because Georgia Southern poled the biggest upset of the week. 626 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 1: Now you talk about Scott Frost and Nebraska, things don't 627 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: get easier in the first game of the post Frost 628 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 1: era here as now they will host the Sooners, Nebraska 629 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 1: getting thirteen points at home in this one. Do you 630 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: see a Scott Frost a post Scott Frost bump or 631 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: is this line off the other way? 632 00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 3: Well, so my adjusted line on it's it's Oklahoma, the 633 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 3: visitor favored by ten point three. So so in a vacuum, 634 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 3: I'm showing two point seven points a line value on Oklahoma. 635 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 3: You can explain that for sure, just by you know, 636 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 3: the Nebraska just acts Scott Frost. Now the interim you know, 637 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 3: staff is going to take over. Stuff like that. I 638 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 3: think that that's what explains it. I do not believe 639 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 3: that I'll be betting this game. I certainly did not like, 640 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 3: you know, Nebraska, you know, for all those different reasons. 641 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,719 Speaker 2: And I don't think there is talented maybe some other 642 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 2: people thought. 643 00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,560 Speaker 3: But Oklahoma, I think that they're down, probably more than 644 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 3: people are are giving them credit for. It's just that 645 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 3: they haven't played anybody yet. So I would love an 646 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 3: opportunity to fade Oklahoma. It's just I'm not sure that 647 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 3: I could do it this coming Saturday. Another thing that 648 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 3: I'll mention is, you know, you see this a lot 649 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 3: when there's a firing in season where you know, analyst 650 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 3: people like you know, sitting in my seat, they'll they'll, 651 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 3: you know, they'll say, oh, you know, you know, you 652 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 3: fade the team. You know, right after they fired their 653 00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 3: head coach, they're gonna be in disarray and they're gonna 654 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 3: be their mind's gonna elsewhere, stuff like that. It has 655 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 3: been so ubiquitous teams that fired their coach then overachieving 656 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 3: like the couple weeks after that. 657 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 2: There's actually a coach bump. 658 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: That's the thing, well. 659 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 2: What they call in college football. They call it the 660 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 2: dead cat bump. You know, it's like your free followed 661 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 2: that it hits the ground, bounces up or whatever. 662 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 3: Like you know, there's been a lot of teams that 663 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,800 Speaker 3: next week and even maybe the week after, but specifically 664 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,560 Speaker 3: in that first week that have overachieved relatively line. So 665 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,000 Speaker 3: don't just assume that stick it in an enormous fork 666 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,479 Speaker 3: in Nebraska. They very well may have a better effort 667 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 3: this coming week. And don't forget you only lost that 668 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 3: the guy in the top of the totem pole. As 669 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 3: far as the coach, the rest of the coaches are 670 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:41,480 Speaker 3: the same, and I think at this point, we could 671 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 3: say that Scott Frost was not adding value to Nebraska. 672 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 3: In fact, he may have actively been taking it away. 673 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 3: So I, you know, you're baking all those different things together. 674 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna stay away, but that's a fascinating informational 675 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 3: game that I'll be tuning in for just to get 676 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 3: some information about both those squads. 677 00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: Now, speaking of coaches that may not be popular at 678 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 1: their current destinations, Brian Kelly's in a little bit of 679 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,520 Speaker 1: hot water at this point. Down in Louisiana. We got 680 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: people clamoring maybe for a little bit of the rage 681 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 1: and cage in Coach oh coming back, which would be 682 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 1: the greatest thing ever. But LSU takes on Mississippi State 683 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 1: here and LSU hosts as three point dogs. Are they 684 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 1: finally gonna get right? 685 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 2: Well? 686 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 3: Also, this is a pretty surprising line, you know, I 687 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 3: mean like in you know, when you compare it to 688 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 3: what it would have been over the summer. I don't 689 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 3: have the line, you know, if they drop one of 690 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 3: those Games of the Year lines on it, but I 691 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 3: have to imagine not only would it have been flipped, 692 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 3: but LSU would have been favored by more than the 693 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 3: three you know, maybe it would have been, like, you know, by. 694 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 2: Six or whatever. 695 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 5: So the whole thing is is switched basically just because 696 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 5: Mississippi States looked pretty solid early on in the season 697 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 5: and then I mean last last week, LSU dropped kicked 698 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 5: an FCS team. 699 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 2: Nobody watched that. 700 00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 3: The game that everybody watched was when they were fumbling 701 00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 3: over you know themselves when they played Florida State. And 702 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 3: then they you know, missed the extra point at the end, 703 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,240 Speaker 3: and and and ended up losing that game by by 704 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 3: one point. But I do think that there's some of 705 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 3: that stuff going on with the perception. My line on 706 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 3: this it's pretty dang near a pick on. I actually 707 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 3: have LSU favored by seven tenths of a point. So 708 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 3: I am showing three point seven points a line value 709 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,240 Speaker 3: on l s U. You're going up against the perception 710 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 3: on that. But I do think that there's there's value 711 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,400 Speaker 3: on on LSU. Florida State is better than they've been 712 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 3: in recent years. We've already seen that, so LSU playing 713 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 3: with them like losing it, it's not the embarrassment that 714 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 3: it would have been the past couple of years. 715 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 2: And then Missipi State. I do like that they beat 716 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 2: Arizona on the road yesterday. 717 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 3: Arizona's you know, they've they've been winning one or two 718 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 3: games now for several years. But Arizona is a bit 719 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 3: better than they've been. We'll end up seeing it by 720 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 3: how much. But the game before that, Missispi State blew 721 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 3: out Memphis. I'm not very high on Memphis. Uh, you know, 722 00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 3: like this year, you know, in comparison to some of 723 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 3: these these years past. So I'm not sure that Missipi State. 724 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 3: They're undefeated, but I'm not sure their resume is quite 725 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,640 Speaker 3: as impressive as maybe the public thinks it is. And 726 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 3: I think that that Florida State, the gig job that 727 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 3: happened there at the end and stuff like that, I 728 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 3: think that's sticking in people's minds. 729 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 2: Visa v. LSU. 730 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 3: So I think if you want to bet on LSU 731 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 3: in this game right now, with where the line is, 732 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 3: you're basically getting three or four points a line value 733 00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,640 Speaker 3: for free, just because it's the perception thing. But then again, 734 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 3: you have to cheer for Brian Kelly for an afternoon, 735 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,480 Speaker 3: so you'll have to decide if that's in your best interest. 736 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 1: Now you talked about Florida State there, I am a 737 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,480 Speaker 1: hard pass on any Brian Kelly Love. But Florida State, 738 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,160 Speaker 1: they are taking on Louisville here, a team that we've 739 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 1: mentioned a couple times on the course of the three 740 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,959 Speaker 1: episodes of this show. Now they are one and a 741 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: half point favorites. Do you think that Florida is Louisville 742 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,680 Speaker 1: going to start rebuilding? Are they going to be able 743 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: to come back here and build off last week? Or 744 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:54,960 Speaker 1: is this a Florida State game for you? 745 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 2: This is Florida State for me. 746 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 3: To me, Florida State is, you know, two steps ahead 747 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 3: of what we have seen Florida State these last couple year, solid, 748 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 3: two steps about. They are now a solid team. You 749 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 3: get top thirty, top maybe top twenty five by the 750 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:09,520 Speaker 3: end of the year. You know, we'll kind of see 751 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,920 Speaker 3: how that ends up shaking out. But I trust Florida 752 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 3: State more or less to at least play their game 753 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 3: super duper explosive rushing attack. They've now augmented that with 754 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 3: at least a confident passing attack, which is that was 755 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,640 Speaker 3: the problem before because Travis couldn't hit anybody, But now 756 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:24,880 Speaker 3: they have receivers. 757 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:26,320 Speaker 2: They brought in some guys in the portal. 758 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 3: Travis has gotten more accurate, so that's also playing up 759 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 3: the rushing attack. Then it seems like their defense is 760 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 3: going to be better than it's been the past couple 761 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 3: of years. 762 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:35,560 Speaker 2: So I like Florida State. 763 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 3: As far as Louisville, you know, obviously in Week one, Thomas, 764 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 3: you watched every play of that one, but they were 765 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 3: one of the most disappointing teams a Week one just 766 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:48,359 Speaker 3: got absolutely hammered by Syracuse and the Louisville fan base. 767 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:52,200 Speaker 3: They were complaining, they have not stopped complaining that Louisville 768 00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 3: quit in that game. You know, it's like if you 769 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 3: read any of the Louisville Riders or talk to any 770 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,759 Speaker 3: of their fans, it's you know, basically, they had two 771 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 3: guys that showed out in that first game as Harrel 772 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 3: and then the transfer running back that they brought in Evans. 773 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 3: But like there was a noticeable lack of effort on 774 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 3: the field with Louisville once the game started to get 775 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 3: away from them, And so you were wondering last week 776 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,880 Speaker 3: when they had the Friday game at UCF, you were 777 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,239 Speaker 3: sort of wondering how they were going to play. I 778 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,719 Speaker 3: watched every play of that game on Friday night and 779 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 3: I can report back to you. Even though Louisville did 780 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,840 Speaker 3: spring the upset, and and and in a place that 781 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 3: has traditionally been difficult for visiting teams like UCF had 782 00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 3: some long home winning streak heading into that one. So 783 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:34,600 Speaker 3: I think people just looking at it, you know, tree 784 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,359 Speaker 3: top looking down that that did not tune into that game, 785 00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,600 Speaker 3: they're gonna be like, oh, you know, maybe you know, 786 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 3: Louisville was one of those teams that, like thora is 787 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 3: alluding to before, where they just had a flu key 788 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 3: performance in Week one, but they're actually the team that 789 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 3: we thought they were going to be in the preseason. 790 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 3: I would do a not so, I would do a 791 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 3: corso not so fast, my friend to that thing, the 792 00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,080 Speaker 3: non fluke result with them against Syracuse because they just 793 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,280 Speaker 3: got beat, you know, and they got beaten the trenches, 794 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,879 Speaker 3: they got beat on the perimeter, they essentially got beat 795 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,080 Speaker 3: on every single phase and then they quit. Whereas against 796 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:09,319 Speaker 3: UCF that was just a really ugly game. To me, 797 00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 3: both those teams are not what we thought they were 798 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 3: going to be heading into the year. My more significant 799 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 3: takeaway from that game is I'm downgrade and UCF. In 800 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,120 Speaker 3: my head, I didn't think Louisville did a whole bunch 801 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 3: to beat a quality team on the road, which tells 802 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,640 Speaker 3: me that maybe UCF is not the quality team that 803 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,399 Speaker 3: we thought they were gonna be. So I don't give 804 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 3: Louisville quite as much credit for that. I certainly like 805 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 3: Florida State more. My just a ligne in this game 806 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,839 Speaker 3: is Florida State minus three point seven. It's not as 807 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:37,799 Speaker 3: many points a line value, you know, just in a 808 00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 3: vacuum is some of these other games that we talked about. 809 00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,719 Speaker 3: But one of these teams is a fade for me, Louisville, 810 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:44,759 Speaker 3: and one of these teams has a big buy sign 811 00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:45,799 Speaker 3: on it in Florida State. 812 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:47,640 Speaker 2: I'm gonna be on the seminoles on Saturday. 813 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,799 Speaker 1: Now, speaking of potential buy signs. Here, my friend, let's 814 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 1: go to the Syracuse Purdue game. This is the one 815 00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,440 Speaker 1: that I have been eyeing. This is to me, the 816 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,600 Speaker 1: test because Purdue, Yeah, they're not the class the Big Ten, 817 00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:02,680 Speaker 1: but I want to see how Syracuse reacts to a 818 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,760 Speaker 1: Big Ten opponent. Here, it's in the Carrier Dome. Syracuse 819 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,799 Speaker 1: is favored getting a whole point in this one. What 820 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 1: are your thoughts? Because the schedule gets good for Syracuse 821 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,480 Speaker 1: for a tiny bit after this, they do play Virginia, 822 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,799 Speaker 1: then you got Wagner, and then you get into the 823 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 1: meat of it with that NC State, Clemson, Notre Dame, 824 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 1: pitt Florida State. Geez, it just goes to the end 825 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,920 Speaker 1: of the season at that point. But this is the 826 00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,520 Speaker 1: game to me where we're gonna find out if the 827 00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,360 Speaker 1: Orange is real. What are you thinking? 828 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,640 Speaker 3: I think so, yeah, it's not just the you know, 829 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,760 Speaker 3: the opponent, the quality of the opponent, because because that's 830 00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 3: one thing, you know, just just seeing them against an 831 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,439 Speaker 3: opponent like this. But the other thing is the things 832 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,279 Speaker 3: that Purdue does well are things that you know, at 833 00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,279 Speaker 3: least I won't say that they haven't been tested in it, 834 00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,640 Speaker 3: but like they played Louisville. The passing offense for Purdue 835 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,399 Speaker 3: is what I'm alluding to, which is awesome. And now 836 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,279 Speaker 3: the Syracuse pass defense, you know it is going to 837 00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,319 Speaker 3: have to defend that Week one that seemed like more 838 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,560 Speaker 3: of an I mean, it was part of course defensive 839 00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:06,200 Speaker 3: improvement by Syracuse for sure, but Malik Cunningham looked awful 840 00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:06,759 Speaker 3: in that game. 841 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:08,759 Speaker 2: You just look really, really bad. 842 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 3: So I'm not sure you know how much of that 843 00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,439 Speaker 3: was was just a Maliite Cunningham production through the air. 844 00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,160 Speaker 3: And then how much was like how far did Syracuse's 845 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,560 Speaker 3: pass defense jump up? And I would have loved to 846 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:20,439 Speaker 3: have gotten an answer to that last week heading into 847 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,840 Speaker 3: this game. Where where that's going to be the most 848 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,120 Speaker 3: important thing, the most important matchup in this game. It's 849 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,800 Speaker 3: it's that Purdue passing offense against the Syracuse pas defense 850 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 3: because if Syracuse gonna least slow him down to any degree, 851 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:32,440 Speaker 3: just not get it run over there they got. They 852 00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,520 Speaker 3: got a solid shot in this one. But but last 853 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,800 Speaker 3: week Syracuse plays Yukon. Then you know, fortunately for US Thomas, 854 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 3: we did well with that game because we you know, 855 00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:43,479 Speaker 3: we you know whatever. And Syracuse ended up covering against Yukon. 856 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,319 Speaker 3: You know, they were laying a big number. They ended 857 00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:46,439 Speaker 3: up covering on the road. 858 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,080 Speaker 1: And you and you called that too. You said the 859 00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:53,520 Speaker 1: number opened around twenty one and a half actually was crazy, 860 00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,439 Speaker 1: and you said, this is going to close twenty four. 861 00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,960 Speaker 1: That is what it closed. That Qus didn't matter, didn't 862 00:38:58,960 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 1: know it anyway. 863 00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, they cash tickets for everybody. But you know what 864 00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:03,279 Speaker 2: we were talking about. 865 00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,399 Speaker 3: Last As far as Yukon goes, Yukon has not really 866 00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,920 Speaker 3: been this their offense. At least, they thought that they 867 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,560 Speaker 3: were going to have Takuan Roberson the entire season. He 868 00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,040 Speaker 3: was their crown jewel of their transfer portal class, the 869 00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,560 Speaker 3: guy that Mora had gone after. You know, he had 870 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,560 Speaker 3: been previously stuck behind Sean Clifford. 871 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:21,359 Speaker 2: You know, so some more. 872 00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 3: Decides we're going to bring him in here, a super 873 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:26,000 Speaker 3: duper athletic quarterback, has some playmaking shops stuff like that. 874 00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,839 Speaker 3: But he got injured really early in their first game 875 00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,719 Speaker 3: against Utah State when when you Kon was playing them. 876 00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,960 Speaker 3: They've been playing this backup quarterback the last few weeks. 877 00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,600 Speaker 3: He's not good and so yeah, I mean Syricy you know, 878 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,560 Speaker 3: shut them down, and you know, and we thought that 879 00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 3: they were going to. But like you know, it's Yukon's 880 00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,239 Speaker 3: backup quarterback that you cut did not expect to be 881 00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:46,080 Speaker 3: playing this season. 882 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,680 Speaker 2: So that doesn't have a lot of predictive value for 883 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:49,120 Speaker 2: us either. 884 00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:53,239 Speaker 3: How will Spyracuse's defensive backs the secondary do against the 885 00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,279 Speaker 3: Purdue receivers and then Aidan O'Connell, you know, more to 886 00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,279 Speaker 3: the point, the Purdue quarterback, I think he's going to 887 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,840 Speaker 3: be a draft pick, you know, in this next class, 888 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 3: probably like a fourth fifth rounder, probably more like fifth. 889 00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 3: But like I think he's an NFL quarterback. And the 890 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,879 Speaker 3: produced receiving corps has gotten well, I shouldn't say better, 891 00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:12,279 Speaker 3: you know, in terms of talent, because you know, the 892 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,359 Speaker 3: last couple of years, you lose Rondo more, you lose 893 00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:14,879 Speaker 3: David Bell. 894 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,000 Speaker 2: You don't have a singular talent like that. But I 895 00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,080 Speaker 2: think people expected them to fall off the shelf. 896 00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,279 Speaker 3: Whereas Jeff Brum went out and made a whole bunch 897 00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,600 Speaker 3: of smart signings in the transfer portal, he found something 898 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,760 Speaker 3: with Charlie Jones from Iowa. He signed two different Iowa receivers, 899 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:31,640 Speaker 3: which was brilliant because, as everyone who has a television knows, 900 00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,560 Speaker 3: Spencer Petross cannot throw the ball, he cannot hit a 901 00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,920 Speaker 3: player on the hands, and so the receivers for i 902 00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,799 Speaker 3: have just been withering on the vine. Tracy has not 903 00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,880 Speaker 3: had the as quick of a start, but Charlie Jones 904 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,160 Speaker 3: has started off like like a ban treat. Charlie Jones 905 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:46,960 Speaker 3: is one of the best special teams players in the 906 00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,719 Speaker 3: entire nation returner previously, but we had not gotten to 907 00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:51,680 Speaker 3: see as much of his work as a receiver again 908 00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,239 Speaker 3: because of Spencer Petross. He has been awesome in these 909 00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:58,000 Speaker 3: first few games. I'm fascinated to see this one. I 910 00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,439 Speaker 3: know that like I like Syracuses offense. You know, we've 911 00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,840 Speaker 3: talked about that, the sideline, the sideline passing attack that 912 00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,760 Speaker 3: Robert and I has added to that shotgun spread option 913 00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,120 Speaker 3: offense that they were running. You know, with Schrader and Tucker, 914 00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,480 Speaker 3: you now have another dimension with that. But for me, 915 00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,800 Speaker 3: this game is going to come down to ken Syracuse 916 00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:20,040 Speaker 3: slow that Purdue passing attack at all. If they do, 917 00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:21,879 Speaker 3: they're going to win this game and start out three 918 00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:23,600 Speaker 3: and all. 919 00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,279 Speaker 1: Oh. I so hope it happens. But right now, let's 920 00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:29,359 Speaker 1: talk about some top five teams here, particularly the one 921 00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:31,279 Speaker 1: that Syracuse is going to be beating in the first 922 00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:36,320 Speaker 1: round of the College Football Playoff, the Alabama Crimson Tide. 923 00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:40,600 Speaker 1: They had a twenty point favorites against Texas, who is 924 00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,640 Speaker 1: still not back, but they look back. Texas didn't look 925 00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:46,920 Speaker 1: like they weren't on their way back. It's gonna hurt 926 00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,279 Speaker 1: without quinn Ewrers, but we're talking about Bama here. They 927 00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,560 Speaker 1: were able to pull that game out and now they 928 00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,640 Speaker 1: sit as mere forty eight point favorites at home to 929 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,920 Speaker 1: ul Monroe. Can you lay a gigantic spread with this 930 00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:02,239 Speaker 1: team again reliable to beat up on bad teams. I 931 00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 1: think that we just caught Texas. This was their get 932 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:07,879 Speaker 1: up game. This was there. Let's go out and let's 933 00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,680 Speaker 1: show them that we're back in legit and quite frankly, 934 00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,840 Speaker 1: Wers doesn't get hurt. I don't think Alabama is undefeated 935 00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:14,440 Speaker 1: right now. 936 00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,160 Speaker 2: Oh for sure, Yeah, a thousand percent. 937 00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:20,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's I mean, the context of that makes 938 00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,200 Speaker 3: the game for Alabama even more embarrassing because Queen Ewers 939 00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:24,400 Speaker 3: gets knocked out right away. 940 00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:26,160 Speaker 2: I mean, anyone heading in. 941 00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,000 Speaker 3: If you'd said that Hudson Card is going to play 942 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,719 Speaker 3: the vast majority of that game, everyone and their mother 943 00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:32,399 Speaker 3: would have taken Alabama minus state. 944 00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:33,960 Speaker 2: They would have laid the points in the second. 945 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:38,239 Speaker 3: But in Hudson Card, Like Hudson Card offers more mobility, 946 00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,240 Speaker 3: for sure than than quinn Ewers, you know, more mobile 947 00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,360 Speaker 3: conneveade rushers, a little bit more like that. 948 00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,880 Speaker 2: But he doesn't have near the arm. That's the problem. 949 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,640 Speaker 3: He's more like on the I'm not calling him Colt McCoy, 950 00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,960 Speaker 3: but he's more on that spectrum of like the scrambler guy, 951 00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:57,040 Speaker 3: and you know whatever, whereas quinn Ewers is, he's like 952 00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,200 Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford, or at least that is what he has 953 00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:01,640 Speaker 3: been calmed to by all the different recruiting analysts stuff 954 00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:01,960 Speaker 3: like that. 955 00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,920 Speaker 2: So you lose the arm talent, you lose the arm strength, and. 956 00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,120 Speaker 3: Yet Texas was still able to stay with him one 957 00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:09,799 Speaker 3: point of Alabama. Now you turn the page to this week, 958 00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:13,280 Speaker 3: my numbers have Alabama. It actually is showing value on Alabama, 959 00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,720 Speaker 3: which never happens. Like like my numbers, you know, Vegas 960 00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:18,080 Speaker 3: is always way higher on them. 961 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,000 Speaker 1: You know, we're usually paying at tax. 962 00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,200 Speaker 3: Exactly, but this week you're not, you know, and I 963 00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,680 Speaker 3: think in part because of the way the Alabama looked 964 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,400 Speaker 3: last week. My line on this game is Alabama minus 965 00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,080 Speaker 3: fifty three point three. So you know, a part of 966 00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,200 Speaker 3: you you're thinking, well, oh wow, this is a very 967 00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,040 Speaker 3: very rare opportunity where I can bet Alabama where the 968 00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:40,160 Speaker 3: line is lower maybe than it objectively should be. And 969 00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:43,239 Speaker 3: then also you get the not revenge against you all 970 00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,120 Speaker 3: monroll but like a takeout your frustration game. You know, 971 00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,400 Speaker 3: after they were especially their offensive skill guys like Jamier 972 00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,880 Speaker 3: Gibbs got shut down at least as a runner against Texas. 973 00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:53,279 Speaker 3: The only way they could get them the ball was 974 00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,280 Speaker 3: throwing it to them, you know, like outside the tackles, 975 00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:57,879 Speaker 3: the short stuff, and then Alabama's receiver. 976 00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,480 Speaker 2: Is I don't know what's going on. I don't know 977 00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:01,399 Speaker 2: what's going on Alabama's receivers this year. 978 00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,520 Speaker 3: They have taken a significant step backwards, and we'll have 979 00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,400 Speaker 3: to see how that manifests. But I'm not sure that 980 00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,000 Speaker 3: I could take it here, you know, even you know, 981 00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:11,920 Speaker 3: like I said, even with the idea that maybe they 982 00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,399 Speaker 3: take out some theme and maybe there's a little bit 983 00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,000 Speaker 3: of value. I didn't love what I saw out of 984 00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:22,120 Speaker 3: Alabama last week, and I think, yeah, I think, you know, 985 00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,959 Speaker 3: some games it would just be like the regular game plan. 986 00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,040 Speaker 3: I think for Alabama this coming week it's more of 987 00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:32,239 Speaker 3: a how do you say macro against micro, where Nick 988 00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:35,640 Speaker 3: Saban is going to look at some more systemic issues 989 00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,000 Speaker 3: that came into play against Texas as opposed to thinking 990 00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:40,960 Speaker 3: about u owman roll a whole bunch and trying to 991 00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:42,640 Speaker 3: figure out how to game plan for UOM and row. 992 00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:44,560 Speaker 3: You have to figure out what receivers are going to 993 00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,359 Speaker 3: be on the field. It's one of them, like they 994 00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,880 Speaker 3: haven't played Jacory Brooks like you know, like all season. 995 00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:51,759 Speaker 3: Then he ends up coming in the fourth quarter, he 996 00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,120 Speaker 3: catches two consecutive passes. He was, all of a sudden, 997 00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:58,800 Speaker 3: Alabama's leading receiver in terms of yardage just after two plays. 998 00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:00,520 Speaker 3: And this what kid we thought was going to be 999 00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:02,600 Speaker 3: one of their top two receivers coming into the year. 1000 00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,279 Speaker 3: They've just made a bunch of weird decisions like that 1001 00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:07,680 Speaker 3: and stuff like that. So I think Alabama needs to 1002 00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,040 Speaker 3: figure that stuff out. And meanwhile, this is on the 1003 00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,000 Speaker 3: complete opposite side of the polarity. Of course, U Monroe 1004 00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:14,319 Speaker 3: is one of the worst scenes in the nation, But 1005 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,000 Speaker 3: I think you Monroe is a little bit better than 1006 00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:19,759 Speaker 3: you know, like I mean, sort of where you think 1007 00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,120 Speaker 3: you Monroe is. I'm not talking by a ton. I 1008 00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:23,879 Speaker 3: don't think they're a ball team, nothing like that. They're 1009 00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:25,960 Speaker 3: certainly gonna get run over in this game, but they 1010 00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:28,759 Speaker 3: they were frisky when they played, funny enough, in the 1011 00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:32,040 Speaker 3: opener they played Texas. They ended up losing to Texas, 1012 00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,600 Speaker 3: uh by forty two points, but they did a couple 1013 00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:38,840 Speaker 3: of things in that game that were interesting. Texas talked 1014 00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,200 Speaker 3: in the postgame about, like you know, you Monroe did 1015 00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,200 Speaker 3: a few different things we weren't expecting. They discombobulated us 1016 00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:47,560 Speaker 3: on a few different things. So I and the other 1017 00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,680 Speaker 3: thing was they brought you and Roll over the summer 1018 00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:51,960 Speaker 3: or over the offseason. They had brought back in the 1019 00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,160 Speaker 3: offensive coordinator that they had a couple of years ago. 1020 00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:56,799 Speaker 3: The last time you all, Monroe was competent, like when 1021 00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:58,880 Speaker 3: they were, you know, sort of contending for you know, 1022 00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,560 Speaker 3: quasi ball getting up to like five wins whatever. 1023 00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:03,720 Speaker 2: They had. This guy named Matt Lubick was was running 1024 00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:04,480 Speaker 2: their offense the. 1025 00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:06,440 Speaker 3: Past couple of years ago to like Rich Rodriguez and 1026 00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:09,759 Speaker 3: different stuff like that, and the offense just cratered. I 1027 00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:11,600 Speaker 3: like the coordinator they have there. I also like the 1028 00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,160 Speaker 3: defensive coordinator. He was doing some stuff that was confused 1029 00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,080 Speaker 3: in Texas a little bit. Texas did drop the big 1030 00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:18,160 Speaker 3: number on him, but you know, like I said, Texas 1031 00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,439 Speaker 3: showed some respect after that game you woman Roll. Last 1032 00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,400 Speaker 3: week they played an FCS team they ball raised him. 1033 00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,040 Speaker 3: So I do like you Ooman Roll a little bit more. 1034 00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,240 Speaker 3: Short story long, I think I'm probably gonna stay away, 1035 00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,440 Speaker 3: even though there are a couple of things pointing to 1036 00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:32,840 Speaker 3: potentially Alabama as. 1037 00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:36,759 Speaker 1: A bet only you could have a five minute explanation 1038 00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:38,919 Speaker 1: for a game that you end with I'm not gonna 1039 00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:44,200 Speaker 1: bet it, though. Yeah. The next one up here though, 1040 00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:48,240 Speaker 1: the team that took down Alabama at least on the rankings. Bama, 1041 00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,600 Speaker 1: of course, with that close win over Texas drops to 1042 00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,759 Speaker 1: the two spot. Georgia rises to take their place. I mean, 1043 00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:57,319 Speaker 1: when's the last time we've seen Georgia do anything good. 1044 00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,200 Speaker 1: I'm struggling to remember. But here they're gonna be on 1045 00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:03,120 Speaker 1: the road taking on the game Cocks of South Carolina 1046 00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:06,520 Speaker 1: as twenty four and a half point favorites. You think 1047 00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:09,040 Speaker 1: this line is slightly off and the game Cocks need 1048 00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:10,360 Speaker 1: a tiny bit more respect. 1049 00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:14,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's you got to pay the tax right 1050 00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:15,000 Speaker 2: in this case. 1051 00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,520 Speaker 3: You know the Georgia tacks especially you know, of course 1052 00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:19,760 Speaker 3: the title, but the proof of concept in the opener 1053 00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,479 Speaker 3: blowing out Oregon. I think that's why you're you're gonna 1054 00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:24,759 Speaker 3: have to pay a little bit of a tax. That 1055 00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,080 Speaker 3: the line opens twenty four and a half Georgia minus 1056 00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:28,759 Speaker 3: twenty four and a half. My line on it is 1057 00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:32,040 Speaker 3: Georgia minus twenty two. So I think that that's what 1058 00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:33,960 Speaker 3: that two and a half points is. It is attributa 1059 00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:38,120 Speaker 3: attributable to South Carolina. Last week, I was hoping for 1060 00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,719 Speaker 3: a better showing against Arkansas, not because I think they're 1061 00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:45,680 Speaker 3: better than Arkansas, but because Arkansas had two injuries, two 1062 00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,680 Speaker 3: major injuries to starters in their secondary that ended up 1063 00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,880 Speaker 3: missing that game, and it seemed like because of those injuries, 1064 00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,719 Speaker 3: in South Carolina having a deep receiving core and then 1065 00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,319 Speaker 3: of course Spencer Ratler as well, that they should be 1066 00:47:57,320 --> 00:47:59,240 Speaker 3: able to do a little bit better in that game. 1067 00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,520 Speaker 3: The offense, it didn't really come alive until the end. 1068 00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:06,440 Speaker 3: They only had nine points at halftime and sixteen points 1069 00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:08,600 Speaker 3: after the third quarter. They scored a couple of touchdowns 1070 00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,560 Speaker 3: in the fourth, and their defense didn't play. 1071 00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,160 Speaker 2: Very well either. We'll have to see you sell care 1072 00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:15,680 Speaker 2: if they can improve on the defense. 1073 00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:19,520 Speaker 3: And then we're still the book is not in on 1074 00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,880 Speaker 3: Spencer Rallery, We'll put it that way, and so this 1075 00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,520 Speaker 3: is gonna be an interesting one to see him up 1076 00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:27,200 Speaker 3: against Georgia. I don't think I can take, you know, 1077 00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,640 Speaker 3: the I don't think I could take the points, and 1078 00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:32,280 Speaker 3: I also don't think I'll be paying the attack of Georgia, 1079 00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:34,680 Speaker 3: just you know, being on the road against a competent opponent. 1080 00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:36,960 Speaker 2: Probably a stay away from me, but it's going to 1081 00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:37,920 Speaker 2: be an interesting game. 1082 00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:41,600 Speaker 1: So one of my best friends is a sports reporter 1083 00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:46,400 Speaker 1: in Tulsa and he of course covers all Oklahoma college 1084 00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:49,120 Speaker 1: football all of that last year. He tells me, Tom, 1085 00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,080 Speaker 1: you have to bet on Spencer Rattler to win the Heisman. 1086 00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:55,360 Speaker 1: He's so good. Trust me, you want to bet on Ratler, 1087 00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,879 Speaker 1: You want to bet on Raler And I never let him. 1088 00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,880 Speaker 1: Forget it. What was that show QB one QBU that 1089 00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,400 Speaker 1: came out and Rattler was one of the quarterbacks featured. 1090 00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:08,839 Speaker 1: The man has the leadership qualities of a snail. He 1091 00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:13,000 Speaker 1: was just berating receivers. He was a terrible teammate. I 1092 00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,680 Speaker 1: want no part of anything that has to do with 1093 00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:20,280 Speaker 1: Spencer Rattler, all beyond Georgia and their freakishly tall seven 1094 00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:23,520 Speaker 1: to two hundred and sixty pound tight end this weekend. 1095 00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:27,040 Speaker 1: But we've got one more game to get you here, 1096 00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,879 Speaker 1: and it is the big one for you, your favorite game 1097 00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,840 Speaker 1: of the week. We've got thors Hammer of the week 1098 00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:35,320 Speaker 1: and it features a team that is having a pretty 1099 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,239 Speaker 1: decent start to the season in cal Berkeley. And I 1100 00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,279 Speaker 1: say that because, certainly compared to their opponents in this one. 1101 00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:45,080 Speaker 1: Anything's better Notre Dame. The fighting Irish have not shown 1102 00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:48,440 Speaker 1: much fight at all in this new era, zero to 1103 00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,320 Speaker 1: two to start the season, of course, now coming off 1104 00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:55,040 Speaker 1: of that loss to Marshall, and they are twelve and 1105 00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:59,120 Speaker 1: a half points here hosting Berkeley and the Bears. Are 1106 00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:01,719 Speaker 1: we respecting Notre Dame the proper amount or is the 1107 00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:03,880 Speaker 1: book over adjusting based on that upset? 1108 00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:07,279 Speaker 2: Yeah? No way, the book is way over adjusting. And 1109 00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,080 Speaker 2: to me, this where they opened it. 1110 00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,960 Speaker 3: This is a mistake liient at least to me, Like 1111 00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:14,959 Speaker 3: I fully expect that this one by kicks, it's gonna 1112 00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:18,160 Speaker 3: be over fourteen and probably even closer to seventeen. My 1113 00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:21,320 Speaker 3: adjusted line on this game is Notre Dame minus nineteen 1114 00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:25,120 Speaker 3: point five. And that's even like I significantly tackled down 1115 00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:28,960 Speaker 3: Notre Dame this past week, but like it seems Vegas 1116 00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:33,040 Speaker 3: certainly has pulled them down more, you know, overreaction to 1117 00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,560 Speaker 3: last week's upset loss at home to Marshall, of course, 1118 00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:36,920 Speaker 3: and then with Cal. 1119 00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,600 Speaker 2: It seems like they're overreacting on Cal, you know, going 1120 00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:41,319 Speaker 2: the other way. So it's like, you know, this is 1121 00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:42,359 Speaker 2: what it should be, but like. 1122 00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,440 Speaker 3: They're lower on Notre Dame and they're you know, it 1123 00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,359 Speaker 3: ends up giving us this window of value with Kle 1124 00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,240 Speaker 3: it's because you know, they start to and oh, whereas Notre. 1125 00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,200 Speaker 2: Dame is zero and two. But the team Callen hasn't 1126 00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:54,000 Speaker 2: played de buddy. 1127 00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,200 Speaker 1: Yes, Col's not doing much. 1128 00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:57,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, the first game. 1129 00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,759 Speaker 3: They played UC Davis like who cares, and then last 1130 00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,759 Speaker 3: week they hosted UNLV, who's been one of the worst 1131 00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,160 Speaker 3: teams in the FBS now for you know, a decade plus. 1132 00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:07,480 Speaker 2: They only won that game by six points. So I 1133 00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:08,760 Speaker 2: don't really understand. 1134 00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:10,480 Speaker 3: What we're doing with Cal here outside just like looking 1135 00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,719 Speaker 3: at the number and then you know their record. And 1136 00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:14,400 Speaker 3: then the same thing with Notre Dame on on the 1137 00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,759 Speaker 3: other side. Do I love Notreme? What Notre Dame did 1138 00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:18,319 Speaker 3: last week? 1139 00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:18,520 Speaker 2: No? 1140 00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,720 Speaker 3: They you know, they did not look good. You wonder 1141 00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,040 Speaker 3: if you were wondering about Marcus Freeman a little bit, 1142 00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,520 Speaker 3: you were wondering about Buckner a little bit, and then 1143 00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:28,680 Speaker 3: you're also wondering like, seems like they have to give 1144 00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:30,799 Speaker 3: too much of their offensive usage, like there's too much 1145 00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,319 Speaker 3: on the plate of Tyler Buckner like stuff like that. 1146 00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:35,680 Speaker 3: So it's like I understand that there's you know, there's 1147 00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:38,560 Speaker 3: legitimate reasons to doubt Notre Dame as an elite team. 1148 00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,880 Speaker 3: But recall the first game when they were playing against 1149 00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,840 Speaker 3: a team that everyone had in the national championship in 1150 00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,399 Speaker 3: Ohio State. Notre Dame played with them the entire game. 1151 00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,440 Speaker 3: I think they ended up losing by eleven, but they 1152 00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:50,759 Speaker 3: comfortably covered. They were covering that game, you know, the 1153 00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:52,640 Speaker 3: entire time against the number whatever. 1154 00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,480 Speaker 1: They were plus five hundred dogs in that they nearly 1155 00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:58,319 Speaker 1: did win that game. It's not like this team, it's 1156 00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:00,879 Speaker 1: not like this team is terrible. It's just that they 1157 00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:04,080 Speaker 1: went out the next week after having a comparatively really 1158 00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:07,120 Speaker 1: good game against Ohio State, and the next week was 1159 00:52:07,160 --> 00:52:09,920 Speaker 1: a massive letdown. I'm completely with you here. 1160 00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,040 Speaker 3: A thousand percent yeah. And just like we got the 1161 00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,839 Speaker 3: letdown game, you know, which is sort of famous when 1162 00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,160 Speaker 3: a team goes up and they have a near miss loss, 1163 00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,920 Speaker 3: which would have been absolutely enormous, like they would have 1164 00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:24,680 Speaker 3: put Marcus Freeman up on the statue at touchdown Jesus, 1165 00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:26,040 Speaker 3: Like if he won that game, he would have been, 1166 00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,759 Speaker 3: you know, the mayor of South Bend the next day. 1167 00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,440 Speaker 3: But instead you have the near miss loss and then 1168 00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:34,960 Speaker 3: they I mean, admittedly they you know, this is no 1169 00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:36,880 Speaker 3: secret that they were happy to admit this to the 1170 00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:40,239 Speaker 3: media afterwards. They just overlooked Marshall. Marshall came in with 1171 00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:43,160 Speaker 3: their best performance, like the we are Marshall, you know, 1172 00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,600 Speaker 3: the whole deal or whatever. They were fired up for 1173 00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:47,719 Speaker 3: that game and they have a very underrated coach and 1174 00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:51,239 Speaker 3: off stuff like that, and Notre Dame just overlooked him 1175 00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,920 Speaker 3: and in part of Marshall and then Marshall's best player 1176 00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:56,239 Speaker 3: right before the season, he'd walked away from the team. 1177 00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,160 Speaker 2: We'll see if he ends up coming back. 1178 00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:00,520 Speaker 3: By Rashine Ali, you know, the to who had all 1179 00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:03,279 Speaker 3: their offensive usage last year, but now they have this 1180 00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:05,480 Speaker 3: transfer from Florida State who who was getting a bunch 1181 00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:07,719 Speaker 3: of touches, et cetera. But I think that that's a 1182 00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:10,919 Speaker 3: one off. Whereas you had the deflation game, the next 1183 00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,400 Speaker 3: game you come out flat, you end up get getting 1184 00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:15,600 Speaker 3: caught flat footed against a team that was super duper 1185 00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:17,719 Speaker 3: fired up and probably a little bit more talented than 1186 00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:21,000 Speaker 3: people think, even even with the Lasa Ali, So that 1187 00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:23,840 Speaker 3: may have been more predictable. Maybe then maybe we should 1188 00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:25,320 Speaker 3: have seen that coming at I guess what I'm saying. 1189 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,799 Speaker 3: But this week it should be the opposite principle. Notre 1190 00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:30,919 Speaker 3: Dame is not going to be overlooking anybody out. They're 1191 00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:32,839 Speaker 3: not going to be overlooking cal I promise you that, 1192 00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:35,080 Speaker 3: and plus cal as the two to zero record, But 1193 00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:37,680 Speaker 3: especially with Notre Dame being oh and two, you are 1194 00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:41,120 Speaker 3: now backed into a corner you must have everyone needs 1195 00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:43,959 Speaker 3: to bring their their A game. I think they're gonna 1196 00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:46,359 Speaker 3: get coached up pretty pretty tough this week by by 1197 00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:47,000 Speaker 3: Marcus Freeman. 1198 00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:48,600 Speaker 2: I think Marcus Freeman is going to be looking in 1199 00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:49,359 Speaker 2: the mirror as well. 1200 00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,040 Speaker 3: I expect them to have a whole lot of things addressed, 1201 00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:54,759 Speaker 3: and also not just the you know, the effort thing 1202 00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:57,520 Speaker 3: and that where their headspace is, but also in terms 1203 00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:00,880 Speaker 3: of the schematics, trying to get the running backs more involved, 1204 00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,080 Speaker 3: taking some of that usage out to Buckner's hands. Maybe 1205 00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:06,680 Speaker 3: we'd get more of the play action game in stuff 1206 00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:09,760 Speaker 3: like that, get Buckner on the perimeter more with the bootlegs, 1207 00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,319 Speaker 3: different stuff like that. I think game plan wise, there's 1208 00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:13,960 Speaker 3: a whole bunch of different things that you could do 1209 00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:17,319 Speaker 3: different just qualitatively in a vacuum. This line should be 1210 00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,759 Speaker 3: something like Notre Dame minus twenty. Despite the way that 1211 00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,760 Speaker 3: they've started this year and in terms of the records, 1212 00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:25,399 Speaker 3: I really like Notre Dame in this game. I can't 1213 00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,480 Speaker 3: believe that this line opened beneath two touchdowns. I expect 1214 00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:30,680 Speaker 3: Notre Dame to drop the hammer on calf on Saurday. 1215 00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:34,520 Speaker 1: Well, Thor, I am going to run to the sportsbook 1216 00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:37,239 Speaker 1: counter to bet this before that line moves. But in 1217 00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:39,440 Speaker 1: the meantime, if people want to check out all of 1218 00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:42,879 Speaker 1: your fantastic work in college football and beyond, they can 1219 00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:46,160 Speaker 1: head over to Bettingpros dot com. They can hit you 1220 00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:48,520 Speaker 1: up in the Betting Pros discord. All you have to 1221 00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,399 Speaker 1: do to join Bettingpros dot com slash chat. It'll get 1222 00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:55,200 Speaker 1: you right into the discord that is free. You have to. Obviously, 1223 00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:57,960 Speaker 1: there are some premium benefits here that you're going to 1224 00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:01,000 Speaker 1: want to check out once again on Betting Pros and 1225 00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,200 Speaker 1: of course they can follow you on Twitter at thor Ku. 1226 00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,760 Speaker 1: That is gonna do it for us here this week. 1227 00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:11,600 Speaker 1: Best of luck to everyone, May the bets go your way, 1228 00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:14,279 Speaker 1: may the lines move where you need them to, and 1229 00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,040 Speaker 1: let's cash some tickets this weekend. 1230 00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:17,000 Speaker 2: Rock Shock