WEBVTT - Surveillance: NYC Safety With Adams

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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<v Speaker 1>with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily, we bring you

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<v Speaker 1>insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international

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<v Speaker 1>relations to find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal right

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<v Speaker 1>now as a special moment not only for Bloomberg Surveillance

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<v Speaker 1>for all of New York City, but indeed it is

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<v Speaker 1>a national story. Eric Adams is the Democratic nominee for

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<v Speaker 1>New York City mayor. This is two other candidates did

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<v Speaker 1>not go for a recount and conceded in the last

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<v Speaker 1>oh twelve even eighteen hours. Joining me now for a

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<v Speaker 1>conversation with the Democratic nominee is of course Romain Bostic

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<v Speaker 1>and for Lisa brown Witz. And we're absolutely thrilled af

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<v Speaker 1>Shelley Banjo, whether she has driven our coverage here at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg just started out as yeah, another race, and then

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<v Speaker 1>it became something different. Eric Adams, thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for joining us this morning. I'm gonna let Shelley talk

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<v Speaker 1>about ear piercings and all that that we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>the last twenty four hours. I want to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>your first meeting as mayor with the New York Police Department.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you envision that will go. Well, first, it

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<v Speaker 1>started already and it's not with the department, it's with

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<v Speaker 1>the union heads. I had a conversation with Pat Lynch,

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<v Speaker 1>conversation with Ed Mullins Uh, conversation with the president of

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<v Speaker 1>the d d A is about going behind closed doors

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<v Speaker 1>and say let's turn a new page. I said this

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<v Speaker 1>over and over again, the prerequisite to prosperity in the

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<v Speaker 1>city's public safety and reform, and they are eager to

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<v Speaker 1>sit down with me and say how do we move

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<v Speaker 1>policing into the twenty century deeper into the century. But

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<v Speaker 1>we re established the relationship between police east in community

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<v Speaker 1>because I'll see this will be controlled by the good guys.

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<v Speaker 1>Are the bad guys right now all across America, the

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<v Speaker 1>bad guys are winning. I'm going to stop that immediately.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you gonna do that with Dermott Mcha at the

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<v Speaker 1>Helm Although I'm not. I've made it clear that my

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<v Speaker 1>police commissioner is going to be a woman. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to finally bring of the entire city the largest police

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<v Speaker 1>department in the country Uh, into the twenty century of

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<v Speaker 1>women leadership and law enforcement. And look at three of

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<v Speaker 1>the candidates that I've been communicated with. And I'm sure

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<v Speaker 1>you know obviously being a veteran of that force, that's

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<v Speaker 1>not gonna come easy. Eric. We've seen the fraud relationship

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<v Speaker 1>between the police, the rank and file, the unions. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course the mayors of the past here you've

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<v Speaker 1>also had a relatively complicated relationship despite being a veteran

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<v Speaker 1>of that department here, how do you bridge that? Eric?

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<v Speaker 1>How are you going to do that in a way

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<v Speaker 1>where the police, which are a mighty force in this city. Eric,

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<v Speaker 1>some would say even mightier than the mayor himself. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, it is easy, and those who stay

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<v Speaker 1>it's not going to be easy. Uh, they don't know me.

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<v Speaker 1>I had difficult challenges in my life, being be arrested

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<v Speaker 1>by police officers, assaulted, went into the police department for

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<v Speaker 1>for reform, moved up through the ranks of captain of

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<v Speaker 1>aim and state senator, now bar president, reverse diabetes by

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<v Speaker 1>changing my diet, and so difficult challenges. It's not something

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<v Speaker 1>that I run away from. I run towards. What we

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<v Speaker 1>must do is stop talking at each other around reform

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<v Speaker 1>and safety and start talking with each other. And you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see an approach year a complete change in

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<v Speaker 1>the atmosphere of public safety and how police officers respond.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna rend the bad cops, We're going to back

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<v Speaker 1>our good cops, and we're going to re establish the

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<v Speaker 1>relationships in our communities. And it's going to be done

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<v Speaker 1>in year one. I promise you back the three women

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<v Speaker 1>that you're currently in conversation with. Are they within the

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<v Speaker 1>New York Police Department? Are you looking outside? Um? What

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<v Speaker 1>what I don't want to do is say is it

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<v Speaker 1>bigger than the red box or smaller than the house?

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<v Speaker 1>Because that limits a number of potential candidates, and many

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<v Speaker 1>of them are working right now, and I don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to any way jeopard dies what they're doing. I'll reveal

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<v Speaker 1>those numbers immediately after I win the general election in

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<v Speaker 1>in November. I revealed the individual I decided fair enough,

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<v Speaker 1>fair enough. And another big force to be reckoned with

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<v Speaker 1>is obviously Governor Andrew Cuomo in albany Um. You have had,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a checkered past to speak with him, but

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you guys have run in the same political

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<v Speaker 1>circles for almost your entire adult lives. Did he call

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<v Speaker 1>you to congratulate you? And what's the first thing You're

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<v Speaker 1>going to try to work with him in albany On?

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<v Speaker 1>And we don't have a check you pass um. Clearly

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<v Speaker 1>we are both strong and what we believe, we know

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<v Speaker 1>how to sit down and communicate. We operated together when

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<v Speaker 1>I was in Obany and I'm looking forward to having

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<v Speaker 1>him as a partner as we do with number one

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<v Speaker 1>public safety. I cannot really emphasize this enough. We're not

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<v Speaker 1>going to deal with major parts of our economy tourism.

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<v Speaker 1>If we have shootings in Times Square, no one's going

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<v Speaker 1>to get on the subway system that we could the

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<v Speaker 1>violence there. And so we're going to first deal with

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<v Speaker 1>making our city safe, and then we're going to use

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<v Speaker 1>the dollars that are coming from the federal government to

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<v Speaker 1>go after the theaters of crime and the featers that

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<v Speaker 1>prevent people from finally leaving institutional poverty year after year.

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<v Speaker 1>And I believe that having in Orbany, we could accomplish

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<v Speaker 1>this task together. Eric Adams. They're gonna study your candidacy,

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<v Speaker 1>the path of this UH mayoral race for you in

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<v Speaker 1>Brooklyn and Bronx. They're also gonna study it in Boston

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<v Speaker 1>and also in Boise, Idaho. You're gonna have a national

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<v Speaker 1>ramification for all Democrats. What is your victory say about

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<v Speaker 1>the certitude of the left in the Democratic Party. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if you are a d s A candidate

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<v Speaker 1>or if you are a Republican candidate, Uh, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to be posted to train or slash three. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that what you're going to see on the

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<v Speaker 1>face of the Democratic Party. I keep saying this over

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<v Speaker 1>and over again. I want four burrows in the city

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<v Speaker 1>of New York. The only borough I did not win

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<v Speaker 1>is Manhattan. My message resonated with everyday working people, and

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<v Speaker 1>it didn't matter with your ethnicity, your gender, and worship.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that you're going to see this message

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<v Speaker 1>resident across this entire country. And it's an opportunity for

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<v Speaker 1>us to understand that we don't have to talk at

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<v Speaker 1>each other. We are in this together, and I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to bring a closer together so that we can overcome

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<v Speaker 1>not only the pandemic, but also the pandemic of unemployment,

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<v Speaker 1>of violence, and inequality very quickly. Eric, we are in television,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we are on radio and a number of

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<v Speaker 1>radio listeners have emailed in and said, what's the piercing

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<v Speaker 1>look like? Where's the piercing this morning, Mayor Adams, Look

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<v Speaker 1>at this. It's a it's a gold aery of my

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<v Speaker 1>son and I. We attended a meeting with a group

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<v Speaker 1>of young people during the campaign and they said that

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<v Speaker 1>we were both with you if you commit and promise

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<v Speaker 1>to get your if you become a when the primary

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<v Speaker 1>and a promise made is a promise cap and I

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<v Speaker 1>didn't guess. I can assure you the hundred nights Mayor

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<v Speaker 1>of New York did not go through this torture. Eric Adams,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. We look forward to speaking to

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<v Speaker 1>you again. Let's be cleared the Democratic nominee for New

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<v Speaker 1>York City mayor is a calm time for our Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>of Transportation, Mr Buddhajudge. Of course we all know from

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<v Speaker 1>South Bend, Indiana sterling acade dmics including something that we

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<v Speaker 1>all did as a kid. Could we write an essay

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<v Speaker 1>off John F. Kennedy's profiles and courage and the Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>delivered the goods as a young uh a kid. We

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<v Speaker 1>want to talk about transportation, We want to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>international travel. But yes, right now in infrastructure. Mr Secretary,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. I

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<v Speaker 1>lived the last infrastructure disaster, which as you drove out

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<v Speaker 1>Indiana west and there was a point where I a

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<v Speaker 1>d died and you had a two lane highway west.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going back to that on the condition of our infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're doing it because we cannot figure out how

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<v Speaker 1>to do a gas tax. Can't you do a gas

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<v Speaker 1>tax that will pay for the roads, rebuild America and

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<v Speaker 1>also be politically acceptable for Democrats. Well, it turns out

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to. And what's so great about the

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<v Speaker 1>bipartisan infrastructure framework that the President led that a set

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<v Speaker 1>of Democratic senators and Republican consenators have come together on,

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<v Speaker 1>is that it will deliver the biggest investment in American

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructure in more than a generation, the biggest investment in

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<v Speaker 1>our roads and bridges since Eisenhower, the biggest investment in

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<v Speaker 1>passenger rail since Amtrak, the biggest investment in public transit ever,

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<v Speaker 1>without having to ask Americans to pay any more in

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<v Speaker 1>taxes any American who makes less than four hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a year. This is a promise that the President

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<v Speaker 1>made when he was running for president, he plans to

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<v Speaker 1>keep that promise, and so he was very firm on that.

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<v Speaker 1>But what's clear is that it is absolutely possible to

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<v Speaker 1>make these kinds of investments by looking to other funding

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<v Speaker 1>sources that don't ask that of ordinary Americans. And we're

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<v Speaker 1>thrilled that this critical mass of Republican and Democratic senators agree.

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<v Speaker 1>We think it's one of the reasons why so many

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<v Speaker 1>Americans agree that this is the right thing to do. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>we need Congress to move it forward, get it to

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<v Speaker 1>the President's desk so that we can get those dollars working,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's on our highways and bridges, are our airports

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<v Speaker 1>and ports, or on some of the things that are

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<v Speaker 1>newer to the infrastructure picture, like our digital infrastructure and

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<v Speaker 1>getting everybody online. You mentioned Dwight David Eisenhower. I remember

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<v Speaker 1>going off the infrastructure road of Kansas onto the two

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<v Speaker 1>lane highway to his museum. All wonderful. Dwight Eisenhower. I

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<v Speaker 1>had to fight his Republicans to get the vision of

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<v Speaker 1>the interstate highway system done. How can you bring over

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans to get a majority vote to rebuild America? You know, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>I found that people don't agree on much here in Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>across party lines, but they agree on the needs, as

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<v Speaker 1>you've been describing, and as every American sees. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>when I'm talking to two householdce Senate members, Republican or Democrat,

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<v Speaker 1>what what I noticed that they all have in commas.

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<v Speaker 1>They're all from somewhere. They're all home right now, actually

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<v Speaker 1>this week, during this July four recess, they're all home

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<v Speaker 1>talking to constituents saying, when are we going to get

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<v Speaker 1>this bridge fixed? Why is our airport looking the way

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<v Speaker 1>it's looking. How how are we this far behind on

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<v Speaker 1>on on transit or whatever it is in their district?

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<v Speaker 1>And so, yes, I do believe that that that we

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<v Speaker 1>have finally reached this point of if not consensus, then overlap.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that's why you had this remarkable site

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<v Speaker 1>of the President walking out of the West Wing a

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<v Speaker 1>few days ago, flanked by Democratic and Republican senators saying

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<v Speaker 1>we have a deal. Now we have a deal is

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<v Speaker 1>not the same thing as we have a bill. That's

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening right now, turning it into legislative text, moving

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<v Speaker 1>it through these processes, UH committees that have jurisdiction over this.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of machinery, especially this month of July

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<v Speaker 1>that is going through its motions here in Washington. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's resulting. I believe in in the opportunity for

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<v Speaker 1>something that that we have needed for really the better

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<v Speaker 1>part of my lifetime as we've watched these uh, these

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<v Speaker 1>investments degrade, as we've coasted off of decisions that were

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<v Speaker 1>made generations ago. You know, last time I was in

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<v Speaker 1>New York was to look at the Hudson River Tunnels,

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<v Speaker 1>the finest infrastructure technology of nineteen ten, and we're still

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<v Speaker 1>depending on. Look at the john Look at the shade

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<v Speaker 1>the Secretary gives to New York City. Missed the Secretary.

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<v Speaker 1>There are some things that are easy to get down

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<v Speaker 1>and haven't been done. Infrastructure, it's one of them, my guests.

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<v Speaker 1>Another is international travel restrictions. We want to work out

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<v Speaker 1>when we get an update from your administration, when it's

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<v Speaker 1>not going to happen, so it unfortunately it can't be

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<v Speaker 1>based on an arbitrary date. It has to be based

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<v Speaker 1>on conditions. But I can tell you as as a

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<v Speaker 1>Transportation secretary, of course, I am as impatient as anybody

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<v Speaker 1>uh to see us move as as quickly as we

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<v Speaker 1>responsibly can toward more forms of reopening right now. What's

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<v Speaker 1>going on is a set of working group processes, so

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<v Speaker 1>we've can been working groups with our international partners. Is

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<v Speaker 1>one for the UK, one for the EU, one for Canada,

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<v Speaker 1>one for Mexico to determine the right pathway forward. A

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<v Speaker 1>lot of this is based on what's going on with

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<v Speaker 1>progress on the vaccines. Obviously we see good news and

0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:57.680
<v Speaker 1>bad news out there. In terms of the variants, one

0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:01.000
<v Speaker 1>moment you're reading about a variant happening across the world.

0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.960
<v Speaker 1>The next you know it's becoming the dominant strain here

0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:05.400
<v Speaker 1>in the US, and it is, sir, and if you

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.160
<v Speaker 1>allow me to jump in, because we pushed for time,

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:10.280
<v Speaker 1>the data variant has become the dominant strain here in

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 1>the United States for America recording to the CDC, and

0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:17.600
<v Speaker 1>very quickly so too. From my position personally, forgive me

0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:19.200
<v Speaker 1>for saying this, but you didn't have to watch your

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.200
<v Speaker 1>father's funeral down the screen of an iPhone on Tuesday.

0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.600
<v Speaker 1>I did because of your policies. Now, I expected you

0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 1>to bring up the science and I expected the quote

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:29.839
<v Speaker 1>that came from you to be used because you used

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.280
<v Speaker 1>it a month ago, two months ago, here in the

0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.400
<v Speaker 1>policies for our audience so they understand them. Currently, if

0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.320
<v Speaker 1>you're a citizen of the United States for America, or

0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:40.640
<v Speaker 1>if you have a Green Card, you can travel to

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:44.000
<v Speaker 1>the UK and you can fly directly back. If you

0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:46.320
<v Speaker 1>have an H one B visa or an NOW one,

0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:48.839
<v Speaker 1>you can fly to the UK. But to come back

0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.200
<v Speaker 1>to America you need to go to Mexico City and

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.920
<v Speaker 1>spend two weeks there in a third country to get

0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 1>back to New York. Sir, forgive me, but I've spoken

0:13:56.800 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 1>to scientists about this, and there is no scientific rationale

0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:03.080
<v Speaker 1>for that policy. So for me and thousands of others

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:04.640
<v Speaker 1>who haven't got to be with their loved ones through

0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:07.600
<v Speaker 1>a critical time because of your policies, sir, there will

0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.240
<v Speaker 1>be thousands more if you carry on repeating the same

0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 1>line and don't just look at this and change it.

0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.640
<v Speaker 1>Why are you not changing the policy when we have

0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:20.680
<v Speaker 1>scientists day after day say there's no scientific rationale for

0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 1>maintaining it. Well, first of all, let me say I'm

0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 1>sorry to hear about your father, And let me also

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:31.400
<v Speaker 1>say that I am among those who are impatient to

0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.800
<v Speaker 1>see loved ones who live across the Atlantic. Let me

0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.800
<v Speaker 1>also say that the US is going to be conservative.

0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.280
<v Speaker 1>For give me for jump again to jump against keep.

0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:44.520
<v Speaker 1>You keep going back to this, and there is no

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 1>scientific rationale to distraw a distinction between someone who has

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:51.760
<v Speaker 1>a green card and H one b vis or an

0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.640
<v Speaker 1>now one. You know that. I know that. Regardless of

0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 1>anything you say for the next couple of minutes, it's

0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>not going to justify it. What I need to understand

0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 1>from you as a policy maker is why thousands of

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:06.000
<v Speaker 1>people who live in this country legally and pay taxes

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:09.480
<v Speaker 1>cannot go home to see loved ones and return directly.

0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.800
<v Speaker 1>And why you still repeat the same line again and

0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.640
<v Speaker 1>again and again. It doesn't make it true. You do

0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.320
<v Speaker 1>not have a scientific rational for this. You cannot back

0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 1>it up with science. Why you're not going go away

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:27.600
<v Speaker 1>with policy makers and doing something so our tools are imperfect, right,

0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:31.760
<v Speaker 1>we are dealing with a country based framework for assessing risk,

0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 1>when in a perfect world we would know all the

0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:39.080
<v Speaker 1>information we needed to have for a traveler based framework.

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.960
<v Speaker 1>We can move in that direction somewhat. That's more refined

0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:47.280
<v Speaker 1>and ultimately more accurate from a risk assessment perspective, but

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.600
<v Speaker 1>we don't have the toolkit to do that. In a

0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:54.520
<v Speaker 1>way that would be as smooth as as we would want.

0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 1>So we're going to continue to have a strategy led

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:03.120
<v Speaker 1>by public health authorities, guided by Homeland Security c d C,

0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:07.480
<v Speaker 1>my department at the table to reopen travel as quickly

0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:11.800
<v Speaker 1>as we responsibly can. I'm not talking about a broad

0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:14.880
<v Speaker 1>based reopening. Forget me for jumping in. Just just allow

0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:16.400
<v Speaker 1>me to get this thought. And because it's important to

0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 1>what you're about to say, I need you to understand

0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:23.960
<v Speaker 1>that I'm talking about working people in this country who

0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.240
<v Speaker 1>are working here legally. With the stroke of a pen,

0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:29.600
<v Speaker 1>you can enable thousands of people in this country who

0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:33.680
<v Speaker 1>work illegally and pay taxes to return home to loved ones.

0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 1>And you can do that by making an equal treatment

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.520
<v Speaker 1>for people with an H one B and our one

0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.640
<v Speaker 1>a green card at a resident of this country. You

0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:45.680
<v Speaker 1>know that's not difficult. That's not a large change. That's

0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.400
<v Speaker 1>allowing people who work in this country to get back

0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:51.200
<v Speaker 1>and see loved ones like they want to. And so

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:53.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to lay on this this on any

0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:55.840
<v Speaker 1>thicker than I already have. You didn't have to watch

0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 1>your mom stand by your father's casket in a few

0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 1>old two days ago because you won't do what I'm describing.

0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:06.920
<v Speaker 1>It's easy, and us together in this conversation, I hope

0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:09.920
<v Speaker 1>you go away and make the changes so that thousands

0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:12.160
<v Speaker 1>of other people don't have to go through when I've

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:17.440
<v Speaker 1>gone through in the last month. Can we make that happen, sir? So,

0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.680
<v Speaker 1>these are exactly the kinds of things that we're reviewing

0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 1>on a daily basis. I'm the Transportation Secretary. My entire

0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.240
<v Speaker 1>job is to do everything I can to safely get

0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:29.159
<v Speaker 1>people to where they need to be and where they

0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.160
<v Speaker 1>want to be, whether it's to be with loved ones,

0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:34.280
<v Speaker 1>whether it's to do business. But it's literally what I'm

0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:38.800
<v Speaker 1>here in Washington to do. Nothing about this, respectfully, Nothing

0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.040
<v Speaker 1>about this is easy. We're dealing with a phenomenon that

0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:45.600
<v Speaker 1>has led to the debts of six hundred thousand Americans.

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:51.240
<v Speaker 1>We're dealing with imperfect information, complex policies, legacy policies. Nothing

0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.240
<v Speaker 1>about this is easy. But what I will tell you

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:56.439
<v Speaker 1>is we're doing everything we can as quickly as we

0:17:56.520 --> 0:18:01.119
<v Speaker 1>responsibly can to get back up and running. Mr Secretary,

0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:05.880
<v Speaker 1>Would you support a passport equivalent? I have a passport.

0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:10.040
<v Speaker 1>I happen to study microbiology. A few years ago why

0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:13.879
<v Speaker 1>can't I get a passport, a federal passport that says

0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:18.000
<v Speaker 1>I've been vaccinated. Well, there are a lot of privacy

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:20.639
<v Speaker 1>and technology issues, but I do think it's worth noting.

0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.280
<v Speaker 1>You know, you may have had this experience too. I

0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:27.240
<v Speaker 1>had it when I was younger traveling internationally of carrying

0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:32.040
<v Speaker 1>a yellow uh CDC passport that reflected the vaccinations UH,

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.680
<v Speaker 1>that that I needed to demonstrate that I had to

0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 1>travel to parts of Southeast Asia and Africa. We we

0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:40.760
<v Speaker 1>have forms of this that are frankly very low tech

0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:43.199
<v Speaker 1>and out of take. How to balance that with the

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.200
<v Speaker 1>privacy issues is a challenge, and we've decided that it's

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:51.000
<v Speaker 1>not the federal government's job to establish these kinds of requirements,

0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:53.439
<v Speaker 1>but it is important to make sure that there are

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.399
<v Speaker 1>ways for people who want to demonstrate that they are

0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.720
<v Speaker 1>vaccinated to to to prove it. And UH We've seen

0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:02.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot out of third party and private sector ways

0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:03.800
<v Speaker 1>to do this, and I think that's going to continue

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.760
<v Speaker 1>to develop and needs to have continued support at the

0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:09.560
<v Speaker 1>policy level too. What's your biggest headache right now and

0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:13.159
<v Speaker 1>getting this infrastructure plans through? I know you're managing a

0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 1>message every day and certainly We've seen that with President Biden.

0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:22.800
<v Speaker 1>This is a big emotional piece of American legislation. How

0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 1>do you get it through with a fractious Senate? I

0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:27.680
<v Speaker 1>think the biggest thing is not to let the politics

0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:31.199
<v Speaker 1>get in the way with people are impatient for this

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:34.680
<v Speaker 1>to happen. But it's been infrastructure Week for a good

0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:37.280
<v Speaker 1>decade or so, and we need to demonstrate that it's

0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:41.359
<v Speaker 1>actually going to get done this time. Look, the policy

0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:44.280
<v Speaker 1>framework is clear, the pathway forward is clear. We need

0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:46.720
<v Speaker 1>these roads and bridges, we need better airports. There's a

0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:48.760
<v Speaker 1>there are listings of airports, were not one of the

0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:51.480
<v Speaker 1>top twenty five is actually in the United States. That's

0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:54.920
<v Speaker 1>unacceptable to the president. I think it's unacceptable to most Americans.

0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:57.199
<v Speaker 1>We want to get this done. UH. The biggest thing

0:19:57.280 --> 0:19:59.040
<v Speaker 1>we have to do is actually move it through Congress

0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:02.080
<v Speaker 1>and make sure that as this turns into the very

0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:06.679
<v Speaker 1>specific mechanical legislative text, that we're tearing down any obstacles

0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:09.199
<v Speaker 1>to getting into the President's desk. But I feel an

0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:11.760
<v Speaker 1>enormous amount of momentum for this on both sides of

0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:14.320
<v Speaker 1>the aisle UH, and our job is to make sure

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>that that moment momentum gets us all the way across

0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:19.359
<v Speaker 1>the finish line. Mr Sextrae, I appreciate it's on this morning,

0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:22.360
<v Speaker 1>and thank you very much for hearing questions and from

0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:26.080
<v Speaker 1>responding to them to Puddh Judge, the U S Secretary

0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:34.199
<v Speaker 1>of Transportation right now, and we've been just thrilled what

0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:36.520
<v Speaker 1>our booking team has done to bring in equity voices.

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:39.720
<v Speaker 1>Liz Ande Saunders with us at Yar Danny yesterday Abbey,

0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:43.000
<v Speaker 1>Joseph Cohen, and now we continue with Jonathan Gollub of

0:20:43.000 --> 0:20:46.880
<v Speaker 1>Credit Sweets. His calls early in the year were distinct

0:20:47.280 --> 0:20:49.520
<v Speaker 1>and they were different. We get an update this morning,

0:20:49.560 --> 0:20:52.520
<v Speaker 1>John Gallub, can you give me SMP five thousand this morning?

0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:55.679
<v Speaker 1>I gotta make some news. I don't know if I

0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:58.199
<v Speaker 1>can give SP five thousand. But the things that have

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.400
<v Speaker 1>made me optimistic about the more get are still in place,

0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:05.360
<v Speaker 1>UM the and more than anything else, it's earnings. We're

0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:08.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna start to hear UM. I think it's next Tuesday.

0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:12.080
<v Speaker 1>From JP Morgan in the Big Banks, the consensus view

0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:16.000
<v Speaker 1>is that we'll have sixty one upside and earnings versus

0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:18.440
<v Speaker 1>a year ago. Our read is that that number is

0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:21.600
<v Speaker 1>gonna be sev and if we're wrong, We're too long. Okay,

0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:23.720
<v Speaker 1>so this is really important, folks. We're gonna stop the

0:21:23.720 --> 0:21:26.640
<v Speaker 1>show right now because this is critical. We're gonna get

0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:29.720
<v Speaker 1>to that earnings call. We all know consensus is different

0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:32.440
<v Speaker 1>now that it's ever been. John gottub, can you make

0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:36.359
<v Speaker 1>a shift to secular growth based off those earnings or

0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:38.440
<v Speaker 1>you gotta hide in the hole because the world's gonna

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:41.880
<v Speaker 1>come to an end eighteen months later? No, I mean

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:45.440
<v Speaker 1>I I don't think that this story is has changed

0:21:45.480 --> 0:21:48.240
<v Speaker 1>as much as the headlines are. I think there's two battles.

0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:51.919
<v Speaker 1>The fundamentals are unbelievably strong. This is gonna be the

0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:56.720
<v Speaker 1>strongest GDP corder we've seen. The economic data is generally

0:21:56.840 --> 0:22:01.200
<v Speaker 1>very good and continues to improve. Value is cheaper than

0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:06.639
<v Speaker 1>growth cyclical old economy. Boring companies are delivering stronger growth.

0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:09.800
<v Speaker 1>These are companies like mining companies, things like that. Now,

0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:13.320
<v Speaker 1>if you look at what happens, however, when interest rates fall,

0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:18.320
<v Speaker 1>the market favors growth stocks in a falling interest rate environment,

0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:21.879
<v Speaker 1>this is all of the market is great. The question is,

0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.960
<v Speaker 1>just as you guys have mentioned, where's the leadership what

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:27.800
<v Speaker 1>wins within the market, Because the market still wants to

0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:30.240
<v Speaker 1>go up into the right John, Why can't I just

0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:32.919
<v Speaker 1>buy the market by the SMP. Why do I have

0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:34.960
<v Speaker 1>to get into the detail. Why is it all about

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:37.600
<v Speaker 1>active management this year when quite clearly you're doing okay

0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:42.280
<v Speaker 1>just holding the SMP five hundred, John, I don't think

0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:44.480
<v Speaker 1>that that's a I don't think that's a terrible call.

0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:48.119
<v Speaker 1>If if you are a hedge fund that's watching this show,

0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:50.600
<v Speaker 1>you don't have that option. You have to you have

0:22:50.640 --> 0:22:53.159
<v Speaker 1>to try to figure out how you're gonna outsmart the market.

0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 1>And for them, I think the story is between now

0:22:56.320 --> 0:22:58.960
<v Speaker 1>and the end of the year, value wins, cyclicals win,

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 1>and that there will be a time for growth. But

0:23:01.320 --> 0:23:04.280
<v Speaker 1>it's not right now. If you're a long term investor,

0:23:04.560 --> 0:23:06.720
<v Speaker 1>whether you buy the broad market or whether you buy

0:23:07.080 --> 0:23:09.320
<v Speaker 1>these tech themes that that you see, you know that

0:23:09.359 --> 0:23:13.160
<v Speaker 1>you that Romaine Highland we're selling off a long term

0:23:13.160 --> 0:23:16.080
<v Speaker 1>it's a growth story. Um. So if you're an individual,

0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:18.520
<v Speaker 1>you could ride the wave that way. If you're a

0:23:18.520 --> 0:23:20.960
<v Speaker 1>hedge fund, you've gotta play this more tactively. Let's put

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:22.880
<v Speaker 1>a bell on it. Then let's make the big point.

0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:24.879
<v Speaker 1>What's more important here the earnings, So where the tenure

0:23:24.920 --> 0:23:27.280
<v Speaker 1>yield is because John, I've asked that question repeatedly in

0:23:27.320 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 1>the last twenty four hours, and the latter not the former.

0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:31.880
<v Speaker 1>I can sense that you think it's very much about

0:23:31.880 --> 0:23:35.600
<v Speaker 1>the former. It's about where the earnings go. Listen, if

0:23:35.640 --> 0:23:37.840
<v Speaker 1>you're if you're looking at the overall market, the whole

0:23:37.880 --> 0:23:40.160
<v Speaker 1>thing is an earning story. It's a matter of fact

0:23:40.240 --> 0:23:42.119
<v Speaker 1>for all those that are talking about how expensive the

0:23:42.160 --> 0:23:46.560
<v Speaker 1>market is, because you know, because stock prices are up, um,

0:23:46.920 --> 0:23:51.199
<v Speaker 1>there's been no increase in valuations and PETE multiples in

0:23:51.280 --> 0:23:55.360
<v Speaker 1>a year. The stock market is moving only with the

0:23:55.440 --> 0:23:58.320
<v Speaker 1>earning story. If you're looking at this in terms of

0:23:58.720 --> 0:24:04.000
<v Speaker 1>within the market growth versus value, tech versus financials, then

0:24:04.080 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 1>it's about interest rate, but the market it's an earning

0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:09.680
<v Speaker 1>story full stop. But put into perspective here, Jonathan, how

0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:12.840
<v Speaker 1>resilient the earnings picture has been. I mean, there's been

0:24:12.840 --> 0:24:14.920
<v Speaker 1>obviously a lot of disruptions. There's been a lot of

0:24:14.960 --> 0:24:17.080
<v Speaker 1>talk about supply chains, there's been a lot of talk

0:24:17.240 --> 0:24:20.160
<v Speaker 1>about wage growth. H The idea here that all these

0:24:20.160 --> 0:24:23.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of various factors would somehow up end the earnings

0:24:24.000 --> 0:24:26.600
<v Speaker 1>picture for some of these companies and overall at least

0:24:26.600 --> 0:24:29.800
<v Speaker 1>on an aggregate basis, it's held up pretty well. Yeah,

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:31.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, Roman, you make a good point here. First

0:24:31.880 --> 0:24:35.800
<v Speaker 1>of all, Um, the smartest question I I recently got

0:24:36.520 --> 0:24:40.200
<v Speaker 1>was not what is this year's earnings versus last year?

0:24:40.240 --> 0:24:43.000
<v Speaker 1>Because we know last year was a beaten up number.

0:24:43.280 --> 0:24:46.080
<v Speaker 1>What does it look like compared to two years ago?

0:24:46.240 --> 0:24:50.000
<v Speaker 1>Are we are we above prior peaks? Um? The expectations

0:24:50.040 --> 0:24:55.080
<v Speaker 1>consensus is that will be about nine above where we

0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:58.000
<v Speaker 1>were two years ago. Our estimate is that will be

0:24:58.200 --> 0:25:01.160
<v Speaker 1>nine percent above. But it's all the reports are in

0:25:01.480 --> 0:25:05.119
<v Speaker 1>for this quarter, so um, that's really amazing. We still

0:25:05.160 --> 0:25:08.119
<v Speaker 1>have all this disruption. We can't get the things that

0:25:08.200 --> 0:25:11.760
<v Speaker 1>we want delivered at all. Um. The unemployment rate is high,

0:25:11.840 --> 0:25:13.960
<v Speaker 1>and yet we're talking by the end of this quarter

0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:18.800
<v Speaker 1>we'll probably have stronger earnings growth that we did before

0:25:18.800 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic started. I mean, Romaine Gollub talks about the

0:25:21.720 --> 0:25:24.600
<v Speaker 1>smart question he got four years ago. There No, the

0:25:24.640 --> 0:25:27.920
<v Speaker 1>best question Gollub got, Romaine was John Ferrell's question a

0:25:28.000 --> 0:25:30.320
<v Speaker 1>moment ago, are we supposed to be worried about earnings

0:25:30.400 --> 0:25:33.200
<v Speaker 1>or the ten year yield? That's the money question? Yeah,

0:25:33.240 --> 0:25:35.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that is the money question. And look, I mean, obviously, Jonathan,

0:25:35.800 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, people are gonna obsess over this. They're gonna

0:25:38.280 --> 0:25:41.800
<v Speaker 1>obsess over or whatever we are now. They're gonna obsess

0:25:41.840 --> 0:25:44.200
<v Speaker 1>over whether we're headed towards one percent or whether we're

0:25:44.200 --> 0:25:48.040
<v Speaker 1>headed back up towards two percent. Here, I mean, provide

0:25:48.080 --> 0:25:50.199
<v Speaker 1>some sort of soothing advice here. What what do you

0:25:50.240 --> 0:25:52.280
<v Speaker 1>tell people who are maybe staying up late at night

0:25:52.480 --> 0:25:55.280
<v Speaker 1>staring at their screens away John and Tom do on

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:57.920
<v Speaker 1>this tenure deal. Yeah, well, you know, first of all,

0:25:57.960 --> 0:26:01.680
<v Speaker 1>if you take a look, I made this comment, um,

0:26:01.720 --> 0:26:04.439
<v Speaker 1>I guess probably about eight weeks ago when we were

0:26:04.480 --> 0:26:07.159
<v Speaker 1>about one fifty, which means that we were an equal

0:26:07.280 --> 0:26:10.480
<v Speaker 1>chance that we would get one on the tenure, equal

0:26:10.560 --> 0:26:12.800
<v Speaker 1>chance we would get to one percent or two percent.

0:26:13.160 --> 0:26:15.159
<v Speaker 1>And I was really vocal that if you end the

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:18.400
<v Speaker 1>year closer to one, the market is gonna be weaker

0:26:18.480 --> 0:26:20.760
<v Speaker 1>than if you end the year closer to two. The

0:26:20.920 --> 0:26:23.720
<v Speaker 1>market likes higher rates, and people just don't want to

0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:26.879
<v Speaker 1>buy into that idea. Higher rates are an indication that

0:26:27.040 --> 0:26:30.480
<v Speaker 1>demand for capital is rising. It's a sign that the

0:26:30.520 --> 0:26:33.520
<v Speaker 1>economy is strong. The reason the market is selling off

0:26:33.560 --> 0:26:36.320
<v Speaker 1>today is because people ask a question, what the heck

0:26:36.440 --> 0:26:40.040
<v Speaker 1>is wrong that interest rates are falling when this economy

0:26:40.119 --> 0:26:42.760
<v Speaker 1>is supposed to be so good, so you know we

0:26:42.800 --> 0:26:45.320
<v Speaker 1>want higher interest rates. I would argue that if the

0:26:45.359 --> 0:26:49.239
<v Speaker 1>interest rates to continue to move towards one, that my optimism, well,

0:26:49.280 --> 0:26:51.719
<v Speaker 1>I still think the market will be higher. That I'll

0:26:51.760 --> 0:26:54.680
<v Speaker 1>be proven to be too optimistic. If interest rates back

0:26:54.800 --> 0:26:57.520
<v Speaker 1>up towards one and a half one seven five, the

0:26:57.600 --> 0:27:00.560
<v Speaker 1>market is on fire to we get to move down

0:27:00.560 --> 0:27:03.280
<v Speaker 1>to one, and that forty six hundred priced target of

0:27:03.320 --> 0:27:07.760
<v Speaker 1>yours is in question. I think that the likelihood of

0:27:07.760 --> 0:27:11.160
<v Speaker 1>me hitting that number is lower. And on the other hand,

0:27:11.400 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 1>if we get towards one, seven five or two percent,

0:27:14.240 --> 0:27:15.960
<v Speaker 1>I may be too light of my number. You're you

0:27:16.040 --> 0:27:18.679
<v Speaker 1>are right. There's no question. The sentiment of the market

0:27:18.800 --> 0:27:21.439
<v Speaker 1>right now is all tied to what's been going on

0:27:21.520 --> 0:27:24.760
<v Speaker 1>with the with the tenure and if if last starting

0:27:24.760 --> 0:27:27.480
<v Speaker 1>season is right, it's similar to this one. Um, the

0:27:27.560 --> 0:27:30.359
<v Speaker 1>market is gonna care if infestrates continue to fall apart

0:27:30.720 --> 0:27:33.280
<v Speaker 1>the market as there's a chance he just ignores the earnings.

0:27:33.280 --> 0:27:35.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that would be the case, though, Jonathan

0:27:35.080 --> 0:27:39.159
<v Speaker 1>Gollob credits Chief Ectuty strategist John did you give us

0:27:39.160 --> 0:27:42.879
<v Speaker 1>a five thousand target. He didn't. He didn't. He said

0:27:43.119 --> 0:27:46.280
<v Speaker 1>that if you to a higher he might re evaluate higher.

0:27:46.359 --> 0:27:49.320
<v Speaker 1>He said, if he came lower, he might move. There

0:27:49.400 --> 0:27:52.400
<v Speaker 1>is no chance of hitting that forty hundred. I think

0:27:52.920 --> 0:27:55.240
<v Speaker 1>I think you're being a little bit kind Tom about

0:27:55.520 --> 0:28:01.960
<v Speaker 1>whether there was a move that we're thrilled that robbed

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:05.399
<v Speaker 1>Cornell will join us this morning. John, with your expertise

0:28:05.520 --> 0:28:07.679
<v Speaker 1>in the e c B, why don't you bring in

0:28:07.800 --> 0:28:10.920
<v Speaker 1>Mr Cornel? Rob, Let's start with that. The price mandate

0:28:10.960 --> 0:28:12.440
<v Speaker 1>over at the e CP. You know what it used

0:28:12.440 --> 0:28:14.440
<v Speaker 1>to be still is, in fact it is below but

0:28:14.520 --> 0:28:16.760
<v Speaker 1>close to two percent that's set to change the day

0:28:16.840 --> 0:28:20.000
<v Speaker 1>reportedly to two percent with a tolerance for an overshoot.

0:28:20.000 --> 0:28:23.960
<v Speaker 1>Does that change anything whatsoever for this central bank in Frankfurt, Rob,

0:28:25.040 --> 0:28:26.960
<v Speaker 1>But what it does is get rid of something that

0:28:27.000 --> 0:28:28.959
<v Speaker 1>I think most of us have hated for years. I mean,

0:28:29.000 --> 0:28:31.480
<v Speaker 1>we never really knew what it meant below but close

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:33.560
<v Speaker 1>to was at one point nine, was at one point eight,

0:28:33.760 --> 0:28:37.240
<v Speaker 1>was one point seven? Close enough? So for a start,

0:28:37.280 --> 0:28:40.400
<v Speaker 1>as it gets rid of that horrible you know, lack

0:28:40.440 --> 0:28:43.480
<v Speaker 1>of certainty over what the actual mandate was. But you

0:28:43.560 --> 0:28:48.560
<v Speaker 1>replace something which was close to to below with effectively too,

0:28:49.040 --> 0:28:51.200
<v Speaker 1>and you can perhaps go over for a bit. And

0:28:51.240 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 1>really what we're doing is we're doing what the Bank

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 1>of Japan did many years ago when it moved from

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:58.400
<v Speaker 1>one to two. You take a target, you shift it,

0:28:58.600 --> 0:29:00.480
<v Speaker 1>you've got no more tools, you going to miss it

0:29:00.480 --> 0:29:03.400
<v Speaker 1>by a bigger margin. So it's all about credibility. And

0:29:03.560 --> 0:29:05.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't necessarily think this is going to change an

0:29:05.560 --> 0:29:08.320
<v Speaker 1>awful lot. We'll rob. Their own forecast captured the credibility

0:29:08.320 --> 0:29:11.200
<v Speaker 1>issue over the e CB on CPI one point nine

0:29:11.240 --> 0:29:13.160
<v Speaker 1>for this year, one point five for next, one point

0:29:13.160 --> 0:29:16.960
<v Speaker 1>four for the year after, even with any interpretation of

0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:19.240
<v Speaker 1>their mandate, even with that, even if it adapts, even

0:29:19.280 --> 0:29:22.320
<v Speaker 1>if it changes in twenty five minutes time, whatever it is, rob,

0:29:22.600 --> 0:29:26.280
<v Speaker 1>they're still forecasting deceleration through CPI at to one point

0:29:26.320 --> 0:29:28.959
<v Speaker 1>four and while below this target. So it's their policy

0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:31.560
<v Speaker 1>starts wrong, or they just have zero credibility now to

0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:34.680
<v Speaker 1>achieve it. Well, I think you have to wonder whether

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:38.480
<v Speaker 1>these these targets are actually sensible. Why too, why not

0:29:38.600 --> 0:29:40.480
<v Speaker 1>one and a half? Why why have we chosen to

0:29:40.600 --> 0:29:43.120
<v Speaker 1>We don't seem to be able to achieve it um

0:29:43.160 --> 0:29:45.160
<v Speaker 1>this year? Of course, we have all the benefits of

0:29:45.480 --> 0:29:48.400
<v Speaker 1>looking back at last year's terrible price level and a

0:29:48.520 --> 0:29:51.240
<v Speaker 1>nice comparison. It just lifts everything. It makes it so

0:29:51.320 --> 0:29:53.440
<v Speaker 1>much easier. But that won't last. We all know that

0:29:53.520 --> 0:29:55.920
<v Speaker 1>we've got a little bit of help from supply bottlenecks

0:29:55.920 --> 0:29:58.200
<v Speaker 1>that's pushing things along as well a little bit. And

0:29:58.240 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 1>we've had up until now a little bit of a

0:30:00.080 --> 0:30:03.000
<v Speaker 1>us coming from OPEC class at least giving us the

0:30:03.000 --> 0:30:06.640
<v Speaker 1>sense that possibly they might do something with with supply.

0:30:06.720 --> 0:30:08.840
<v Speaker 1>But that's that's clearly not going to happen anymore. So

0:30:08.880 --> 0:30:11.800
<v Speaker 1>oil is probably headed back down again. Um yeah, I mean,

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:14.520
<v Speaker 1>credibility is a tough one. But you know why why

0:30:15.520 --> 0:30:17.720
<v Speaker 1>your colors to a particular number, It doesn't make sense.

0:30:17.960 --> 0:30:20.479
<v Speaker 1>Rob Cornel frame for us a German response to what

0:30:20.480 --> 0:30:22.600
<v Speaker 1>we're going to hear from Madame le Guard today. The

0:30:22.640 --> 0:30:25.880
<v Speaker 1>idea of moving from ArtMark is seeing to Axel Weber

0:30:26.000 --> 0:30:29.200
<v Speaker 1>and and dividemin. Is this a different Germanic response or

0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:30.840
<v Speaker 1>is it going to be the same old, same old.

0:30:32.080 --> 0:30:35.720
<v Speaker 1>I think the German response has been mellowing over the years.

0:30:35.720 --> 0:30:39.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean they've been the very very much been Bunder's

0:30:39.760 --> 0:30:41.920
<v Speaker 1>bank over the years, which has been very anti a

0:30:41.960 --> 0:30:43.920
<v Speaker 1>lot of the stuff that the E is doing from

0:30:44.600 --> 0:30:47.040
<v Speaker 1>quantity of easy into you know, pretty much anything at

0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:49.680
<v Speaker 1>the moment, But that that has changed in Videnmin seems

0:30:49.720 --> 0:30:51.280
<v Speaker 1>to be mellowing as well a little bit. I mean,

0:30:51.320 --> 0:30:55.440
<v Speaker 1>he'll he'll retain a sort of Germanic hawkishness with throughout

0:30:55.440 --> 0:30:56.920
<v Speaker 1>all of this, but I think they can see that

0:30:56.960 --> 0:31:00.280
<v Speaker 1>there's some merits to pragmatism within this give that that

0:31:00.360 --> 0:31:03.120
<v Speaker 1>the previous policies just simply haven't worked. John Ferrell gives

0:31:03.120 --> 0:31:06.080
<v Speaker 1>a set off into some Germanic carcassianess. We've noticed that

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 1>is well, rab I'm going to steal from the good

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:10.720
<v Speaker 1>people over at rabble Bank this morning. They make fun

0:31:10.760 --> 0:31:13.600
<v Speaker 1>of the acronyms. It's like the military rabble Bank on

0:31:13.680 --> 0:31:15.560
<v Speaker 1>the E C B. Is it f I T? Is

0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:17.680
<v Speaker 1>it f A T? Is it f l A T?

0:31:17.920 --> 0:31:19.920
<v Speaker 1>Or is it f l O P? How big a

0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:23.840
<v Speaker 1>flapper is this going to be? Old wise one? Well,

0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:25.840
<v Speaker 1>what they can always do is this, they can wrap

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:27.640
<v Speaker 1>this up in all sorts of other things as well.

0:31:27.640 --> 0:31:29.600
<v Speaker 1>There's plenty of other stuff as well as the target

0:31:29.640 --> 0:31:31.840
<v Speaker 1>that they'll be talking about. They'll be talking about whether

0:31:31.920 --> 0:31:34.280
<v Speaker 1>or not they can bring in sort of more environmental targets.

0:31:34.320 --> 0:31:36.160
<v Speaker 1>They can even talk about whether they should be thinking

0:31:36.160 --> 0:31:39.520
<v Speaker 1>about a different type of inflation measure, you know, perhaps

0:31:39.560 --> 0:31:41.880
<v Speaker 1>bringing in house prices into this, which they haven't done

0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:44.800
<v Speaker 1>particularly well. Um and talking about you know, do they

0:31:44.840 --> 0:31:47.440
<v Speaker 1>need to think about headline rates as they've always done

0:31:47.440 --> 0:31:49.240
<v Speaker 1>in the past. But we know that these are flipped

0:31:49.240 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 1>around by all sorts of supply measures that they have

0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:55.200
<v Speaker 1>absolutely no control over whatsoever. So you know, there are

0:31:55.200 --> 0:31:56.920
<v Speaker 1>there are other things that they can do to try

0:31:56.960 --> 0:32:00.400
<v Speaker 1>and minimize the focus on the fact that what doing

0:32:00.440 --> 0:32:03.000
<v Speaker 1>is tinkering around the edges of something which is fairly marginal.

0:32:03.280 --> 0:32:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Rob What about the other components of this review, the

0:32:05.560 --> 0:32:09.080
<v Speaker 1>employment component as well as this focus on climate change.

0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:14.720
<v Speaker 1>How does that fold in to the inflation outlook as well. Yeah,

0:32:14.720 --> 0:32:17.120
<v Speaker 1>that's a very interesting question, this whole employment theme, because

0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:20.080
<v Speaker 1>I think one of the things we noted pre pandemic

0:32:20.280 --> 0:32:22.800
<v Speaker 1>was that there was next to no relationship between the

0:32:22.840 --> 0:32:26.040
<v Speaker 1>unemployment rate and what was happening to wages growth. Now

0:32:26.080 --> 0:32:28.400
<v Speaker 1>we are seeing something now, I mean, the US is

0:32:28.560 --> 0:32:30.960
<v Speaker 1>giving us the rest of the world an interesting lesson

0:32:31.480 --> 0:32:34.160
<v Speaker 1>in what's going on there that there can actually be

0:32:34.240 --> 0:32:37.080
<v Speaker 1>a relationship again. But we still don't know whether this

0:32:37.200 --> 0:32:40.440
<v Speaker 1>is you know, for keeps or whether this is simply

0:32:40.640 --> 0:32:43.720
<v Speaker 1>a one off price level adjustment as we adjust to

0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:48.120
<v Speaker 1>the new norms of a post pandemic world. So it's

0:32:48.240 --> 0:32:50.640
<v Speaker 1>entirely possible that in two years time we still have

0:32:51.440 --> 0:32:54.800
<v Speaker 1>a point where the economy is running okay, unemployment rates

0:32:54.880 --> 0:32:57.560
<v Speaker 1>rock bottom, and you still have no wages growth. Then

0:32:57.600 --> 0:33:00.400
<v Speaker 1>what do you do? So I think, you know, complete

0:33:00.480 --> 0:33:05.280
<v Speaker 1>change of viewing unemployment as a particularly causal factor could

0:33:05.280 --> 0:33:06.760
<v Speaker 1>be helpful, But then what do you replace it with?

0:33:06.840 --> 0:33:09.400
<v Speaker 1>There doesn't seem to be anything else to to bring

0:33:09.440 --> 0:33:11.880
<v Speaker 1>in to take its place. When you look at sort

0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:13.560
<v Speaker 1>of the lessons that we can learn from the shift

0:33:13.560 --> 0:33:16.880
<v Speaker 1>that Japan made, into a certain extent, the shift in

0:33:16.960 --> 0:33:19.280
<v Speaker 1>tone that we saw out of the FED here, how

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:22.200
<v Speaker 1>does the EU, and more importantly, how does excuse me,

0:33:22.240 --> 0:33:24.200
<v Speaker 1>that does the e c B And more importantly, how

0:33:24.240 --> 0:33:27.040
<v Speaker 1>does this sort of collection of countries all that to

0:33:27.080 --> 0:33:29.560
<v Speaker 1>a certain extent have different goals and to a certain

0:33:29.560 --> 0:33:32.760
<v Speaker 1>extent different economies. How does the reaction, How does the

0:33:32.840 --> 0:33:36.120
<v Speaker 1>outcome of this, if at all, end up different than

0:33:36.160 --> 0:33:40.000
<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing in Japan? And the US. Um, well,

0:33:40.040 --> 0:33:42.560
<v Speaker 1>it might not. I think the one thing that we're

0:33:42.640 --> 0:33:44.840
<v Speaker 1>doing at the moment as we just all focus a

0:33:44.920 --> 0:33:48.200
<v Speaker 1>bit more on fiscal policy. I think if you accept

0:33:48.240 --> 0:33:51.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of monetary policy around the world has run

0:33:51.240 --> 0:33:54.040
<v Speaker 1>out of pet that it's you know, pushing on a string.

0:33:54.040 --> 0:33:56.200
<v Speaker 1>It's been doing that for many years, then you have

0:33:56.280 --> 0:33:58.720
<v Speaker 1>to look at something else, and fiscal policy it's the

0:33:58.880 --> 0:34:00.680
<v Speaker 1>it's you know, it's the story we hear about from

0:34:00.680 --> 0:34:03.200
<v Speaker 1>Washington in the US all the time. Um it's the

0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:06.000
<v Speaker 1>story that we begun to hear about finally from from

0:34:06.040 --> 0:34:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Europe as well. Japan's already run that race and sort

0:34:09.160 --> 0:34:12.000
<v Speaker 1>of spend everything. Um So I think that's that's where

0:34:12.000 --> 0:34:14.200
<v Speaker 1>we head back to. That's what can push things along.

0:34:14.680 --> 0:34:16.400
<v Speaker 1>But the money has to be spent, Sen sence. We

0:34:16.520 --> 0:34:19.960
<v Speaker 1>can't just print it and chuck it around in a

0:34:20.080 --> 0:34:21.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of really newly fashion. It has to be put

0:34:22.000 --> 0:34:25.160
<v Speaker 1>to useful, productive uses. Rob. It's been way too long.

0:34:25.239 --> 0:34:27.400
<v Speaker 1>It's going to catch up, Rob car now that I

0:34:27.440 --> 0:34:34.960
<v Speaker 1>MG a specific head of research in chief economists Katarina

0:34:35.040 --> 0:34:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Simonettias with us in private that well, there we rarely

0:34:38.000 --> 0:34:40.680
<v Speaker 1>talk to people in the trenches and we do so today.

0:34:40.719 --> 0:34:43.880
<v Speaker 1>What's your biggest headache right now, Katerina, With people that

0:34:44.040 --> 0:34:46.760
<v Speaker 1>say I need to make money like it's in the market,

0:34:46.760 --> 0:34:49.000
<v Speaker 1>but I don't want to take risk, what do you

0:34:49.080 --> 0:34:53.239
<v Speaker 1>tell them? Well, Tom, it's thank you for having me

0:34:53.280 --> 0:34:57.160
<v Speaker 1>on the show. And uh, it is such a weird

0:34:57.320 --> 0:35:00.239
<v Speaker 1>environment that we're in because on one side, our yomic

0:35:00.400 --> 0:35:04.400
<v Speaker 1>forecast remains to be positive. On the other side, for

0:35:04.440 --> 0:35:08.160
<v Speaker 1>a while now, we have been calling for a correction

0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:11.280
<v Speaker 1>of pullback of some sort, you know, anywhere from potentially

0:35:11.320 --> 0:35:16.320
<v Speaker 1>maybe tend to to twent uh and we are saying

0:35:16.400 --> 0:35:18.839
<v Speaker 1>this in the context of the ball market, but we're

0:35:18.920 --> 0:35:23.560
<v Speaker 1>preparing our clients for the fact that this economic cycle

0:35:23.719 --> 0:35:26.839
<v Speaker 1>seems to be happening a little bit too quickly in

0:35:26.920 --> 0:35:29.480
<v Speaker 1>some type of a pullback. Here it just seems natural

0:35:29.560 --> 0:35:32.080
<v Speaker 1>and normal. And this is not the reason to exit

0:35:32.120 --> 0:35:37.080
<v Speaker 1>the market, but certainly a good trigger to reposition the portfolios,

0:35:37.280 --> 0:35:39.960
<v Speaker 1>to go to safety, to take some profits of the

0:35:39.960 --> 0:35:42.960
<v Speaker 1>table cats in your colleagues, particularly the investment bank, the

0:35:43.040 --> 0:35:45.080
<v Speaker 1>likes of Allen setting that, Chad and Ia, I'm thinking

0:35:45.120 --> 0:35:47.520
<v Speaker 1>of Andrew Sheets as well. I'm thinking of Mike Wilson.

0:35:47.920 --> 0:35:50.040
<v Speaker 1>They've been focused on this cycle as well, and where

0:35:50.080 --> 0:35:52.000
<v Speaker 1>we are in this cycle, and a lot of people

0:35:52.000 --> 0:35:54.200
<v Speaker 1>are struggling with that as a framework, because the team

0:35:54.200 --> 0:35:56.759
<v Speaker 1>at Morgan Standing believe are already experiencing a mid to

0:35:56.840 --> 0:36:00.279
<v Speaker 1>like cycle dynamic, a mid cycle dynamic particularly, really to

0:36:00.320 --> 0:36:05.560
<v Speaker 1>explain that to our audience why we're already there so quickly. Well, generally,

0:36:05.760 --> 0:36:08.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, these things stayed time and boommarkets last for

0:36:08.640 --> 0:36:11.920
<v Speaker 1>a while. But because of so much stimulus and because

0:36:11.920 --> 0:36:15.520
<v Speaker 1>of this whole you know, economic reopening that that we're

0:36:15.520 --> 0:36:18.880
<v Speaker 1>going through, everything is happening quickly, and we seem to

0:36:18.920 --> 0:36:24.080
<v Speaker 1>be going into this mid cycle area of the market

0:36:24.640 --> 0:36:28.200
<v Speaker 1>owned four volatility, which is known for corrections and fee bags.

0:36:28.239 --> 0:36:32.399
<v Speaker 1>So because everything is happening quickly and economy is so stimulated,

0:36:32.440 --> 0:36:36.000
<v Speaker 1>and there's some developments and concerns that we're having right

0:36:36.040 --> 0:36:39.760
<v Speaker 1>now dealing with inflation, with labor shortages, with higher cost

0:36:39.840 --> 0:36:42.680
<v Speaker 1>of materials. You on one side, we have this growth

0:36:42.680 --> 0:36:45.440
<v Speaker 1>of recovery. On the other side, we have the volatility.

0:36:45.680 --> 0:36:48.200
<v Speaker 1>So we think that the pullback and the correction at

0:36:48.239 --> 0:36:51.960
<v Speaker 1>this stage in the recovery, in this mid cycle transition

0:36:52.040 --> 0:36:54.959
<v Speaker 1>that we believe that we find ourselves in it's only

0:36:55.080 --> 0:36:57.719
<v Speaker 1>natural here, only natural, And this is a pretty broad

0:36:57.719 --> 0:36:59.920
<v Speaker 1>based pullback, at least for today, I mean pretty much

0:37:00.120 --> 0:37:02.880
<v Speaker 1>thing of significance higher here, at least in the pre

0:37:03.000 --> 0:37:05.600
<v Speaker 1>market Kindarry, Now, I want to go back to, uh,

0:37:05.800 --> 0:37:08.800
<v Speaker 1>the economic data that we've been getting, which has been mixed,

0:37:08.840 --> 0:37:10.839
<v Speaker 1>and it's been mixed pretty much for the whole year,

0:37:11.080 --> 0:37:13.759
<v Speaker 1>despite the fact that most people have taken much more

0:37:13.800 --> 0:37:16.520
<v Speaker 1>of a glass half full approach to it. There are

0:37:16.520 --> 0:37:18.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of surprises out of that data, a lot

0:37:18.480 --> 0:37:21.200
<v Speaker 1>of upside surprises, and that seemed to fuel a big

0:37:21.200 --> 0:37:23.040
<v Speaker 1>part of this bull run that we had over the

0:37:23.040 --> 0:37:25.319
<v Speaker 1>first few months of the year. Those surprises have sort

0:37:25.320 --> 0:37:27.680
<v Speaker 1>of flattened out, and I'm wondering if you read into

0:37:27.680 --> 0:37:30.880
<v Speaker 1>that any sense here that even if the economy continues

0:37:30.920 --> 0:37:33.480
<v Speaker 1>to chug along and chug along higher, the idea here

0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:36.600
<v Speaker 1>that will be pleasantly surprised in any meaningful way is

0:37:36.640 --> 0:37:40.839
<v Speaker 1>past us remain I think that one of the key

0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:43.600
<v Speaker 1>factors here is that there seems to be a bit

0:37:43.600 --> 0:37:46.400
<v Speaker 1>of a disconect with the way Federal Reserve sees the

0:37:46.480 --> 0:37:50.520
<v Speaker 1>inflation in the way that that investors and consumers see

0:37:50.520 --> 0:37:53.279
<v Speaker 1>the inflation in every single day of their life and

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:57.560
<v Speaker 1>naturally their concerns. And so what we tell investors to

0:37:57.640 --> 0:38:00.480
<v Speaker 1>do is to focus on earnings, to focus on quality,

0:38:00.640 --> 0:38:03.879
<v Speaker 1>to focus on fundamentals, because I do believe that we

0:38:04.000 --> 0:38:07.040
<v Speaker 1>are going to speed the positive surprises, but we have

0:38:07.200 --> 0:38:10.120
<v Speaker 1>to be very careful with our portfolio selection. We have

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:13.840
<v Speaker 1>to be very careful with our security selection. When we

0:38:13.960 --> 0:38:16.520
<v Speaker 1>look at quality, we look at earnings, We'll look at

0:38:16.600 --> 0:38:20.160
<v Speaker 1>the long term opportunity, you know, for the stocks to

0:38:20.200 --> 0:38:23.600
<v Speaker 1>make sure that the valuations that we're seeing are actually

0:38:23.680 --> 0:38:27.160
<v Speaker 1>supported by earnings. Because we sow so much run up

0:38:27.239 --> 0:38:29.520
<v Speaker 1>in some of the sectors of this economy, in some

0:38:29.680 --> 0:38:33.040
<v Speaker 1>of the individual equity, that the question is is this sustainable?

0:38:33.239 --> 0:38:35.360
<v Speaker 1>So if there is ever a time to go to

0:38:35.600 --> 0:38:40.200
<v Speaker 1>quality to increase the overall quality of investment portfolios, this

0:38:40.280 --> 0:38:42.319
<v Speaker 1>is the time, Catarina, We've gotta leave it there. It's

0:38:42.320 --> 0:38:44.040
<v Speaker 1>always got to catch up. Thanks for you, and it's

0:38:44.080 --> 0:38:46.840
<v Speaker 1>kind of ready. Siminarity, the Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management

0:38:46.880 --> 0:38:51.399
<v Speaker 1>Sania Vice President. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks

0:38:51.440 --> 0:38:54.759
<v Speaker 1>for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:59.320
<v Speaker 1>am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg television each

0:38:59.400 --> 0:39:03.120
<v Speaker 1>day from six to nine am for insight from the

0:39:03.160 --> 0:39:08.359
<v Speaker 1>best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe

0:39:08.400 --> 0:39:13.359
<v Speaker 1>to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com,

0:39:13.440 --> 0:39:16.680
<v Speaker 1>and of course, on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene, and

0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:18.640
<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg.