WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 3rd, 2026 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.840 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.320 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. So here's the latest 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:40.640 this morning. Friday's payrolls report postponed as the government shut 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:43.960 down trags on Steve Englander, whose standard showdered right in 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:47.120 the US data quality has become quote more Fall's gold 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:49.960 than the gold standard. We expect the uncertain quality of 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:53.480 the data to become the bigger issue than statistical agencies 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:56.960 and the FED have so far acknowledged. Steve joins us 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:58.920 now for more. Steve, good morning, Good moran, tell us 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:00.680 what you ready to think? What's going on here? 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:04.200 Look, you know it's become so common to say that 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:06.319 the US data are the gold standard, and they may 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.600 be compared to everything else. But there's so many holes 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:14.200 in the data that haven't been addressed, and I'd say 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:16.960 that you know, bls. You know, it's not political in 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.560 the sense that Trump accused them of being, but they've 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.360 been kind of intellectually lazy over. 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:25.520 The last decades too, making them intellectually lazy. You're suggesting 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:27.440 it's not just response rates, what is it? 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:30.679 Well, you look at the birth death adjustment, which is 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:35.360 basically more than half the employment growth we've been getting, 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:40.560 and it doesn't reflect anything that's happening in real time. 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:43.640 It's basically an auto regressive model that says what's going 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:45.880 to happen January of this year is what happened January 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:49.600 of last year. Now they're going to try and fix it. 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.520 As a consequence, there will be not just the usual 0:01:52.560 --> 0:02:00.440 benchmark revisions, but big revisions from April through January or 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:02.640 April through December, as well as a big down you know, 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:04.560 weak number we think in January. 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:06.760 So I stay've put the data through in England a filter, 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:08.720 what do you look at? What would you point to? 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:08.880 This? 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:10.800 Says you know, well, I can rely on that. That 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:12.600 makes sense. That's where the economy. 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:16.160 Is, you know, I've used the image of being in 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:18.760 Plato's cave. You sort of see a lot of images 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:20.320 in the wall, and you try and sort of put 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:24.120 them together to make, you know, make a coherent story. 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:28.720 But even the unemployment rate, which everybody lives and dies by, 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:32.040 if the labor force is constant, it also takes this 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:36.040 seventy or eighty people reporting that they're unemployed more than 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:37.840 last month to push it up by a tenth of 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:41.519 a percent. You know, given how much stress we put 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:43.000 on that, that's not a big number. 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:45.320 Okay, So I'll take your Plato's cave analogy, and it 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:47.200 seems like we've been living there for about six years now. 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:49.079 At the data being called into question, and frankly a 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.480 lot of fluctuations since the pandemic. I just raise a 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.200 question of what's your sense then, and taking a look 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:55.799 at all the images on the wall, do you see 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.400 a labor market that's stronger than people think or weaker? 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:03.000 I see labor market that's pretty mediocre. It's not a disaster. 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:07.000 There's no sign that's falling apart quickly. On the other hand, 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.840 it really is the case that you're you know, if 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:12.200 you don't have a job, it's you know, good luck 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:14.880 and God bless. I mean, it's just not you know, 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:16.640 the odds that you're going to find the job are 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:19.720 relatively low. On top of that, you know, the AI 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:22.560 think the productivity thing, we think could matter in the 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:25.600 short term, although we're very optimistic in the longer term 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:29.360 that jobs will be created. I mean, cavemen, the unemployment 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:31.040 rate is no higher now than it was in the 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:31.840 day of the caveman. 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:37.080 We're really going back to caves and hieroglyphics. I'm just 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.640 curious going forward about what you're watching to understand whether 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:44.240 we're heating up and whether there is a degree of 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:48.080 undermining the significance of this data on a permanent level 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.280 as a result of the government shutdowns that make some 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.560 of this data optional depending on the week. 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:57.120 I mean, it can't be optional because the Bond Lessons 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:00.440 the only organization that has like a real sam that 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:02.960 they sit down and they try and sample the entire country. 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:06.920 If everybody else has samples of opportunity, who's posting on LinkedIn, 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.600 whose payroll checks are you processing? And so on and 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:14.360 so forth, you know, they could combine all of this. 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:17.000 I mean, there's so much more information out there than 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:19.520 what the BLS is using and information that's available in 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:21.560 a real time, they can do a much better job 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:22.280 than they've been doing. 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.000 Trump has appointed someone new. On Friday reported about it. 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.600 He confirmed it on truth Is is someone that people call 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:30.080 a data nerd. I got messages from Biden error people 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:32.680 and Trump people saying this is a great pick for 0:04:32.720 --> 0:04:34.800 the BLS. Do you think a new commissioner could come 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:36.640 in and maybe take some of this on board. 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:40.680 I think so, But I mean the question is whether 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:43.560 he breaks out of the BLS mindset that you know, 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:46.680 all you do is use inside BLS and you tweak 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:50.560 this and you tweak that, and everything is fine. You know. 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.320 Look an NFP, I mean, we don't use ride shares, 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.320 we don't use gig workers. They're just as much employe. 0:04:56.360 --> 0:05:00.120 They're not entrepreneurs, they're just as much employees as we are. 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:02.040 When it comes to report, we're not going to get it. 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:05.000 But you have a very downbeat suggestion for how many 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:06.480 jobs are created actually negative. 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:08.760 Yeah, I mean, I think we're the lowest in the 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:13.039 street so at least as of yesterday. But look the 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.640 problem is that we've estimated that the bias and the 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:20.400 birth death adjustment you know, we estimated seventy thousand, power 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:23.800 estimated sixty thousand. If they come up with a model 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:27.719 that really takes current conditions into account and it's consistent 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:31.440 with other data sources we have that are better but lagged. 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.560 You know, all the numbers we've had for the last 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:36.920 eighteen months. You know, just the birth desk stuff will 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:38.719 go down by sixty or seventy thousand. 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:41.320 Stay you're a foreign exchange guy, Yeah, uh huh, what 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:43.520 do you advocate for the moment? Given everything you've just 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:44.719 said over the last five minutes. 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:47.960 Well, you know, I, like I said, labor market is 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:51.760 soft and software. In fact, you know, what it tells 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:54.159 you is that productivity growth when we get the numbers 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:56.040 that are based on the revised data, are likely to 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.080 be even stronger than what's been reported. We believe the 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:04.440 productivity numbers, you know, we're serving in the wash camp 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.160 where it's sort of you know, we think that there's 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.599 something happening in productivity. Productivity normally does not pick up 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:14.760 four years into the recovery five years into the recovery, 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.680 and that's usually a signal it's something structural. That's what 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:19.159 we saw in the late nineties that is what we 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:21.640 saw in the mid sixties. So we think that's the 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.200 most by far, the most important thing that's happening in 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:27.520 the economy right now. And you know, arguing about about 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:29.360 twenty five basis points here or there, it's kind of 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:30.040 a waste of time. 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:31.760 What do you think we should be arguing about. 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:34.520 Oh, we should be trying to estimate productivity growth better 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.320 and understand the dynamics that's going to happen. For example, 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.600 we're dollar bulls because we think the US has the 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:45.680 labor market flexibility. You don't need a Bloomberg journalist. You 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:49.040 let them go, but you find some place. Yeah, no, sorry, 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.880 I didn't need that. You don't need a foreign change 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:55.719 economists to let them go. But you find somebody who's 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.520 going to you find something. You know, but you're making 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.240 money somewhere else, and you look at the profits numbers 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:06.600 that we're getting. Historically, US firms hire when when they're 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:08.960 making money, they might not hire the same people they 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:11.480 hired two years ago, but they'll say, Okay, where are 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:13.640 we making money. Let's pick up some people and see 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.800 if it works elsewhere in the world. In France, you 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:18.640 buy a truck, you don't like the truck. You know, 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:20.800 for business, you sell it in six months, you hire 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:23.520 a worker. Seven months later, you decide you don't like 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:26.600 the worker. You know, he's more fixed capital than the truck. 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:28.360 And this has been a sacred source of the American 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.280 economy for a long time. Deep capital markets, bankruptcy and 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.240 flexible lane markets. Are we losing any dynamism? 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:37.120 I mean there's a risk that we are. Look, you 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:39.880 know there's also stuff that you know, Trump is trying 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:41.160 to do, or is people are trying to do. I 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:43.600 think that's positive for the economy in terms of deregulation, 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:47.920 but you know, the sert of willingness to sort of say, yeah, 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:50.360 I see a problem, I'm going to fix it, you know, 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:52.680 like some of the things they've talked about the housing market. 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:54.320 You know, to fix the housing market you have to 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:58.320 increase housing supply, not housing demand. You'll just get higher 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:00.560 housing prices, but the same number of price. I think 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:03.960 they have to be careful about their willingness to interface. 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:06.840 That's my concern too, that we're not embracing the dynamism 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:10.280 that traditionally has laid the foundation for the American success story. 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.720 Anything we're questioning you in the last twelve in fact, 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:16.480 never mind the last twelve months, the last five years, 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.679 and maybe you can go further back than there. Stay 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:32.560 with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Terry 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:35.560 Haynes of PAN Geopolicy writing, it's a strong signal that 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:37.800 Trump is walking and chewing gum at the same time, 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:42.640 not letting geopolitics distract from US economic attention. Terry joined 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.079 us now for more, Terry, that raises the question, then 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:45.920 who's next. 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:49.840 That's a very good question, John, And you know, I'd 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:54.840 look for, among other things, a strengthening of the US 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:58.560 EU deal, you know, which has been kind of on 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:04.520 off on for Davos related reasons. And you know, beyond that, 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:09.240 I would look for probably we should go out and 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:13.160 look at Asia a little bit more, where the trade 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:15.600 deals can be strengthened even further. 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:19.720 Terry Tyler mentioned it, but Prime Minister Modi was one 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:22.000 of the first officials to come to the White House. 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:24.720 It was almost a year ago, February thirteenth of last year. 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.640 Yet basically a year later we were getting a deal. 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:31.600 Was damage done in pushing India towards say China or 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:34.120 Russia because this deal took so long. 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:37.160 There's been a lot of you know, the mode he's 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:39.960 got his own politics, of course, but the you know, 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.160 there's been a lot of back and forth and a 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:44.960 lot of kind of raw elbows between the United States 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:48.760 and India and all kinds of things, ranging from the 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:53.160 geopolitical scrapes with between India and Pakistan and you know, 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:57.480 frankly Trump's desire to take credit for the lessening of 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:01.760 hostilities there, to the Russian oil, all kinds of other things, 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:05.640 many of which Tyler mentioned, And you know that has 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:10.439 made things more difficult than they appeared to be last 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:15.280 year when Mody was talking about Mega plus Mega equals 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:21.680 mega or mega whatever it was, and the you know, 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.320 but they have had a desire to do a deal 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.000 for quite a while. It's been obvious that things have 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:31.280 been thawing, and you know, I think there's there's still 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:34.320 some prickliness there, but you know, there's a desire to 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:37.400 do a deal. The other thing I'd say is that, 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.600 you know, there's a lot of handwringing in markets always 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:43.320 for the for the lack of detail of these things, 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.880 and that's entirely fair, but you look at the other 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:49.480 way that this this has been done in prior years 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:54.280 where deals have been negotiated, negotiated, negotiated, they're never finalized. 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:58.120 Finally they're finalized, like the EU with Mercosur, which took 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:00.200 twenty five years and they're still not done. And so 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:05.160 markets prefer progress. So that's positive for markets. 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:07.800 Well, when you talk about the prickliness of this deal, 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:09.679 the President made it clear they're not going to buy 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.960 any more Russian oil. We didn't hear that from Mody. 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:17.160 Well, exactly, that's and you know, I made clear when 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:20.160 I wrote that the details of this met many details 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:24.360 of this were not final And I imagine, and I 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:28.319 am this is instinct on my part. I imagine that 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:32.840 the timing of winding down Russian oil purchases is the 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:36.440 major reason why Mody isn't talking about that. And I 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:39.080 also imagine that there are a variety of other details 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.400 that the United States and the India want also relating 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:47.240 to timing purchases of what, when and how, all those 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:52.000 sorts of things. And that's about I think that's the 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:56.280 reason why we have kind of a sliding deal here. 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:58.880 Is there a telling, miss Harry that perhaps the US 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.959 is taking a harder approach with Russia as a result 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.840 of some of the ongoing negotiations with European allies about 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:07.800 the war with Ukraine and Russia, and asked this, because 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.240 that's a key component of this deal, Russia, excuse me, 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:13.840 India agreeing not to buy Russian crude. 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:16.480 Yeah, I think so. I think it's a I think 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:19.320 it's a major signal from this deal. You know, the 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:23.600 you know, Trump, Trump likes to do what he can 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:28.520 do to butter up major adversaries, and that that gets 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:33.080 off putting for domestic audiences sometimes. But I think there's 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:36.439 no doubt that what the United States is doing right 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.960 now is trying to push Russia and squeeze the life 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:43.600 blood of its war machine. Then European allies are helping. 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:47.320 You know, a lot of the ghost fleet activity coming 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:53.240 back into European waters has been harassed and more. And 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:55.480 you know, so what you're seeing is a kind of 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:59.760 a ramped up effort based on what not only then, 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:03.000 but more importantly, the Europeans are willing to do. They 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:08.280 were not willing to, for example, take frozen Russian assets 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.439 and convert those for Ukrainian use, but they are willing 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.320 to do that. So the policy is shifting to that, 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:18.160 and that will have the usual effect on Russia's economy, 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:22.280 but it also makes China's support and pumping up of 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:27.040 the Russian client state even more obvious. Senators today stay 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:27.439 with us. 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:40.040 More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this, We've got some 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.360 data from Yulanta should say for the conference boards. She 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.760 writes this about consumer confidence. Confidence collapsed in January, hitting 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.600 at the lowest level since May twenty fourteen. Concerns worse 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.319 than across all age groups, income levels, and political affiliations. 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:56.000 This wasn't a one month fluke Ulana joins us now 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:57.880 for more. J Lema, good morning, come morning. This one 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:01.520 is really hard to internalize, the idea that consumer confidence 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:04.839 is worse now than it wasn't the pandemic. Can you 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.079 make sense to some of this for us? 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:10.080 And what makes it even worse is that it's a trend. 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.319 It's just not one month's thing, right. We have seen 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:17.440 it declining for quite some time now, and that what 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:21.800 makes it very legitimate. Actually, so confidence right now is 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:25.600 at the worst level since two ten years ago, but 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.320 it was worth before if you go back to the 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.800 Great Recession. Coming out of the Great Recession, that's how 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:37.400 consumers feel felt at that time, So think about it 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:41.680 this way. Now, consumers are feeling actually that as bad 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.320 as they were coming out of the Great Recession. So 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:46.480 that tells you something. So what does it tell. 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:47.720 You, Because a lot of people come on the show, 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.640 they say ignore it because frankly it has not been 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.840 instructive to how the economy has done. And frankly, how 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:57.320 you've seen companies and even workers demonstrate their spending capacities. 0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:00.880 Well, every bird likes its own nest, and kind of like, 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:04.320 I do believe in the data, just again, because it's 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:07.520 a trend. It's not just a one month thing, So 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.960 I think there's something to it. Consumers are worried about jobs, 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:14.960 consumers are worried about affordability, and consumers are worried about 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:19.000 the income levels. So this is very important because that 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:23.480 actually coincides with what the actual data telling us. If 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.760 everybody was talking about how great GDP numbers were in 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:30.120 Q three, but I looked at income data in the 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.920 same exact VIA report, and that data is telling me 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:38.760 that disposable personal income in real terms, which is income 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:43.240 essentially adjusted for inflation and taxes, that has been flat 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:47.600 since Q three of this year. So that is weakening 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.840 and that is the fuel for consumers to spend going forward. 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:55.040 Is this an economic issue or is this a political issue. 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:56.600 In terms of consumer confidence? 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:58.640 And I asked this because ultimately, if you look at 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.000 the averages, they're pretty good. But if you look at 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:03.720 the politics, it's the affordability crisis that you're talking about, 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:06.360 and certainly a lot of people are feeling every single day. 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:10.120 So does this get represented in the overall economic data 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:12.320 or in terms of what policies are going to come 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.200 out of Washington, DC to respond some of these issues. 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:20.480 I think it's both. It's really about how unaffordable things are, 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.360 and it's all about the economy stupid right, At the 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:26.600 end of the day, it's about prices, it's about jobs. 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:30.280 Consumers are not feeling confident about finding a job, so 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:34.040 it is about the economy. I do think that political 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:38.720 things and other disruptions are playing a role as well. 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:43.320 Consumers do hear the news and oftentimes you know, confidence 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:47.560 and sentiment indicators reflect what is happening in the news. 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:52.120 And there's like even some special indexes like news heard 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.520 in the Michigan survey, right, so that that is something 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:57.800 to take into accounty. 0:16:57.520 --> 0:16:58.920 And a lot of guests will come on and they're 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:01.360 talking about the excitement the tax rebate. Where do you 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:02.320 see that money going? 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:06.639 I think, you know, I'm very cautious about that because 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.840 I think that people spend a lot of money during 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:13.800 the holiday season and they may have to return this money. 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:18.360 It's spent, it's already spent. You do see a significant 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:22.240 pickup in credit card balances over the last several months, 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.440 and that is the data coming from the New York Fed. 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:31.240 And I think that given you know, the constraints in 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.080 terms of income roles, in terms of the labor market, 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:37.800 people will be cautious and we'll try to get to 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:39.800 pay back some depth. 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:44.160 This is the Bloomberg Survandons podcast, bringing you the best 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:47.520 in markets, economics, anngio politics. You can watch the show 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:50.520 live on bloombag TV weekday mornings from six am to 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:54.400 nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:56.760 or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.240 Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Amp.