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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot All right, here we go. Every pitch is your pitch.

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Speaker 2: The greatest show on dirt.

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Speaker 1: Deep tileft field, way back that God, when is that show?

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Speaker 1: Now they can add college baseball to their trophy case.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 3: bet MGM. This is our college baseball tournament preview. We're

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Speaker 3: going to hit all sixteen of the regionals, give you picks, sleepers,

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Speaker 3: everything under the sun. And we wouldn't be able to

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Speaker 3: do that without the special skills of one Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 3: He's going to get into projected starters, park effects, every

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Speaker 3: single element of these matchups. No stone left un turned,

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Speaker 3: and please, if you're on the Action Network app, go

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Speaker 3: ahead and check out his expansive preview of the first

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Speaker 3: round here. Which are the regionals for the audience who's

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Speaker 3: coming over from college basketball or potentially college football, if

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Speaker 3: you want to get a feel for where we are.

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Speaker 3: There's Regionals, there's Super Regionals, there's the College World Series.

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Speaker 3: Think of this round as the round of sixty four

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Speaker 3: and thirty two. The winners here are going to advance

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Speaker 3: on to the Super Regionals, which is the sweet sixteen

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Speaker 3: and then the Elite eight in Omaha is the College

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Speaker 3: World Series. So Colin, I'm going to kick it to

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Speaker 3: you first. Are you just exhausted? Do you pass out

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Speaker 3: passing the finish line here? Going through the tape? Because

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Speaker 3: I've heard that you wrote seven thousand words? Are you

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Speaker 3: viewing the regionals here? Is that true?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? The poor editor is at Action Network, specifically Pete Ruden,

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Speaker 2: who is He is the man. This poor guy has

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Speaker 2: to deal with how much I write about college football,

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Speaker 2: and then he's not used to having the middle of

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Speaker 2: May getting a seven thousand word file. But we've got

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Speaker 2: sixteen regionals and there's a little bit of a secret

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Speaker 2: with all of us to bet on college baseball. Regional

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Speaker 2: weekend is the most profitable weekend that there ever is

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Speaker 2: in college baseball. It's not the Supers and it's not Omaha.

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Speaker 2: It's this weekend. And I talk about how there's little

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Speaker 2: angles that you can play blindly. Let's say you don't

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Speaker 2: know anything about these teams and you don't know anything

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Speaker 2: about their pitchers. There are trends that I've been tracking

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Speaker 2: back to twenty seventeen. I've actually tracked them for twenty years.

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Speaker 2: But I'll cut it to twenty seventeen because it really

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Speaker 2: shows the point. If you want the most profitable angle,

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Speaker 2: wait until day two, and then you need to look

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Speaker 2: for when one in two seeds fall into the loser's bracket.

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Speaker 2: So since twenty seventeen, and this will all be on

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Speaker 2: Action Network. In my article twos versus four seeds thirty

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Speaker 2: five and five one versus four seeds in the loser bracket,

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Speaker 2: twelve and one, one seeds versus three seeds nine and one.

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Speaker 2: We're talking an eighty seven percent minimum clip. So if

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Speaker 2: you see a one in a two seed fall on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: it is a banger. Set your alarms, get up at

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Speaker 2: five am. See if your books have posted odds two

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Speaker 2: seeds or bangers against threes and fours on Saturday. So

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Speaker 2: that's the angle that I keep talking about all season.

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Speaker 2: But other than that, if you want to get into pitchers,

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Speaker 2: the rest of this podcast is going to be perfect.

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Speaker 3: All right, we promised you the sixteen regions. Let's get

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Speaker 3: it started here. We're going to start with the number

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Speaker 3: one team in the country, the number one seed in

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Speaker 3: this tournament. That's the Tennessee Volunteers. They're hosting in Knoxville.

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Speaker 3: They're going to take on the four seed Northern Kentucky

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Speaker 3: in that regional that first game on Friday, the two

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Speaker 3: versus the three Southern Miss against Indiana out of the

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Speaker 3: Big ten, and the odds to win this regional Tennessee

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Speaker 3: minus two to eighty, Southern Miss plus three seventy, Indiana

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Speaker 3: seven to one, and Northern Kentucky fifty to one. So

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Speaker 3: you can see very quickly the Tennessee volunteers have been

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Speaker 3: priced prohibitively, and you can get some really good numbers

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Speaker 3: on these other teams if you're interested. The big question

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Speaker 3: here is can Tennessee be beaten? Well, the number one

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Speaker 3: seed has a history that's absolutely riddled with early exits

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Speaker 3: and failing to win the College World Series, failing to

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Speaker 3: even make it to Omaha. It is no guarantee that

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Speaker 3: having that one next year name can be all that

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Speaker 3: helpful in this tournament. But there's a three pack of

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Speaker 3: half teams. I'll go ahead and call them here and

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Speaker 3: Knox will waiting to play them. Southern Miss has no

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Speaker 3: power whatsoever. Northern Kentucky is going to get shelled. Their

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Speaker 3: staff is not prepared for the bats of the falls

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Speaker 3: have and Indiana staff isn't all that much better than

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Speaker 3: Northern Kentucky. So am I missing anything here? Or is

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Speaker 3: this one to kind of just back the chalk and

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Speaker 3: go ahead and figure that they're probably going to go

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Speaker 3: undefeated in this home regional.

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Speaker 2: Well, Southern miss is going to be the cool name

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Speaker 2: for everybody that doesn't do their study and do their homework,

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Speaker 2: because they always show up here. They're always in regionals,

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Speaker 2: and they're you know, they're pesky, they're they're a really

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Speaker 2: good club. The problem is the price. And you know,

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Speaker 2: when you and I when I first threw in my research,

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Speaker 2: when all of the regional prices came out, I think

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Speaker 2: we're sitting at minus three thirty and that is rising

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Speaker 2: on Tennessee. I think for all of these regionals, the

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Speaker 2: favorites are going to rise. So if you like an underdog,

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Speaker 2: play it safe. But the numbers just not where it

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Speaker 2: should be yet. And these you know that we talk

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Speaker 2: about from we go from here on out. I've projected

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Speaker 2: all the picture matchups, you know, pitcher A, pitcher B,

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Speaker 2: pitcher C, and then all of the matrixes they could

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Speaker 2: do against their opponents. When you look at Southern Miss

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Speaker 2: with Nico Masa or Billy Oldham. It doesn't matter if

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Speaker 2: they take on Tennessee game one, they usually do like

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Speaker 2: a stay most cauzy thing, and then they do with

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Speaker 2: Drew Beam. It doesn't matter who they pitch against. They're

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Speaker 2: going to be huge underdogs of at least minus two

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Speaker 2: thirty minus two forty. The real series price here is

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Speaker 2: minus four hundred. There's no reason to talk about the

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Speaker 2: other two teams. Southern miss is going to have to

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Speaker 2: have an unbelievable weekend, which I don't think they have

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Speaker 2: it in them because they only average seven runs per game,

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Speaker 2: and Christian Moore hits about seven home runs per game

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Speaker 2: for Tennessee. So the number should be Tennessee minus four hundred.

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Speaker 2: For this regional. You want to just lay some money down,

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Speaker 2: not have to sweat it, and not have to worry

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Speaker 2: about it. I think Tennessee is the one of all

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Speaker 2: sixteen that you could do that with.

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Speaker 3: All Right, the way that we're going to lay up

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Speaker 3: the regionals here is how they pair up in the

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Speaker 3: super regionals. So if Tennessee cruises through and they go

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Speaker 3: undefeated and they're hosting the super Regionals, they're gonna match

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Speaker 3: off against the winner of the Greenville Regional in North Carolina.

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Speaker 3: That's ECU hosting. They're the sixteen seed in this tournament.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna take on the four seed in Evansville right

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Speaker 3: out of the gate. You also, though, have wake Forest

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Speaker 3: and VCU Laan and Wade in that two to three matchup,

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Speaker 3: and the price here maybe a little bit surprising. The favorite,

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Speaker 3: even though they're on the road, is wake Forest minus

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Speaker 3: one twenty five. ECU is at plus money at one seventy,

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Speaker 3: Evansville ten to one, and VCU at twelve to one.

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Speaker 3: And listen, East Carolina, congrats on hosting a regional, but

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Speaker 3: we're gonna go full Ralph Wighams style in this one.

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Speaker 3: Ha ha, I'm in danger. This wake Forest team being

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Speaker 3: the two seed in this spot is a nightmare situation

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Speaker 3: for the Pirates. They got Burns, they got Hartle, and

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Speaker 3: they got a lineup that can pound the ball out

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Speaker 3: of the ballpark. And even Evansville has this lineup, and

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Speaker 3: you know, I think they can put enough hits together

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Speaker 3: to certainly throw a scare into ECU on Friday. And

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Speaker 3: also it's worth mentioning when you look at these, you know,

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Speaker 3: mid major teams and you think that yourself. It's just

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Speaker 3: an acc SEC kind of tournament. Well, Evansville played fourteen

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Speaker 3: games against Quad one and Quad two teams. They didn't

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Speaker 3: have a winning record in those games, but that's a

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Speaker 3: lot of experience. So I don't think necessarily that the

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Speaker 3: venue and the moment is going to be too big

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Speaker 3: for the Aces. So that could be an interesting play

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Speaker 3: on Friday in the first game as well. What are

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Speaker 3: your thoughts on the Pirates. You know, they were trying

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Speaker 3: as hard as they could. They were hoping on Selection Monday,

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Speaker 3: please get us a regional and then their reward is

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Speaker 3: wake Forest is the two there.

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Speaker 2: I was shocked this morning, Like when I really sat

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Speaker 2: down and put the numbers together, I thought this would

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Speaker 2: be a blowout by wake Forest, considering what they have

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Speaker 2: at the back end of the rotation with Josh Hartle.

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Speaker 2: You know, I just I thought that wake Forest was

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Speaker 2: going to run away with this number. Now in the market,

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Speaker 2: wake Forest is running away with the Steam, with the dollars,

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Speaker 2: with the money. I can see that got bad news

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Speaker 2: for everybody. I was actually shocked that Saturday's projected matchup

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Speaker 2: of Chase Burns versus Trey Savage of East Carolina is

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Speaker 2: should be lined at minus one ten. I was a

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Speaker 2: little bit shocked to find that out. But you know,

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Speaker 2: at the same time, Wake Forest they averaged more runs

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Speaker 2: per game, but the pitching isn't as well, bullpen isn't

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Speaker 2: as well. I mean, there's a lot of things that

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Speaker 2: go into how you build a number, but Trey Savage

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Speaker 2: of ECU versus Chase Burns of Wake Forest on Saturday

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Speaker 2: is minus one ten. For that reason alone, the series

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Speaker 2: price is not correct. It should be minus one ten

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Speaker 2: up and down because there's a lot of other pictures

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Speaker 2: that East Carolina has Ethan Norby that would be favored

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Speaker 2: over Josh Hartle of wake Forest. This number is outrageous,

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Speaker 2: and it's because there's a huge appetite for wake Forest.

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Speaker 2: Now that doesn't say that wake Forest isn't gonna win

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Speaker 2: this regional, but you're paying a huge primit and a

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Speaker 2: huge tax. East Carolina plus one sixty. I will take

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Speaker 2: that all day because if this line Chase Burns Tray

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Speaker 2: Savage on Saturday for wake and East Carolina is minus

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Speaker 2: one ten, there is your head spot. It's a perfect

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Speaker 2: hedge spot. If you take plus one sixty on East Carolina,

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Speaker 2: you can lay minus one ten on Chase Burns. You

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Speaker 2: even lay it up to minus one fifty if you

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Speaker 2: know you don't get around the steam, because I'm sure

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Speaker 2: that's what's gonna happen. But I took East Carolina here

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Speaker 2: the number is just not right, and that's critical to

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Speaker 2: keep in mind here. It's something you've beat the drum

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Speaker 2: on throughout the entire season. These numbers and also the

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Speaker 2: disparity between books can be significant and that's where the

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Speaker 2: value is. So we're gonna go to the Lexington Regional. Now,

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Speaker 2: the Wildcats were flirting with a number one overall seed

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Speaker 2: in this tournament, which is kind of uncharted territory for them,

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Speaker 2: but they come in as the two seed in this regional.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna take on Western Michigan on Friday, Indiana State

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Speaker 2: facing Illinois.

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Speaker 3: On Friday as well. When you look at it, the

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Speaker 3: Wildcats minus one fifty five to win on their home diamond,

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Speaker 3: Indiana State that had been battling after last year getting shafted.

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Speaker 3: They should have hosted a regional instead, they had to

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Speaker 3: go on the road because of a scheduling conflict. They're

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Speaker 3: plus two to sixty in this spot, and then Illinois

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Speaker 3: at eleven to two and Western Michigan at eighteen to one.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna throw out my first pick year and i

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Speaker 3: want you to grade me. Honestly, I'm gonna roll with

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Speaker 3: the Sycamores. They're tenth in Roade ARPI. They're just a

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Speaker 3: solid team through and through when you look at all

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Speaker 3: their advanced stats. They have a good staff, they have

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Speaker 3: a good pen. Simon Gregorson is an effective closer. He

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Speaker 3: has had some games where he's got pounded around, but

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Speaker 3: he's also come in and closed the door on a

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Speaker 3: whole bunch of teams this season. And they have a

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Speaker 3: a pair of tremendous power hitters and Mike Sears and

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Speaker 3: Louis Hernandez. They bombed forty five home runs as a pair.

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Speaker 3: They both slug over seven hundred, and if I do

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Speaker 3: take Indiana State plus two to sixty, the head spot

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Speaker 3: starts right on Friday night because Illinois Cooper Oman's gets

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Speaker 3: the start against them, and he won in their meeting

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Speaker 3: this season against the Sycamores. He was absolutely lights out

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Speaker 3: pitch six innings, ten k's zero earned runs, So that

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Speaker 3: to me is really where the omen's work starts for

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Speaker 3: the Sycamores. But I like this number at just above

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Speaker 3: two plus two to fifty. As a reminder, please shop around.

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Speaker 3: There's some books that are close to three to one.

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Speaker 3: You obviously want to scoop that up with the Sycamores.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on Kentucky potentially getting bounced on

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Speaker 3: their home diamond.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Kentucky is in a precarious position because

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Speaker 2: they don't score enough runs. I mean, they've been great

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Speaker 2: all season, but and they I mean, when you get

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Speaker 2: that number of wins through the SEC play, then you're

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Speaker 2: obviously a real team. But at the same time, they

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Speaker 2: don't score a whole bunch of runs here. They score

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Speaker 2: eight point one per game. Well so does Indiana State

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Speaker 2: and so does Illinois. So from an offensive perspective, there

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Speaker 2: really isn't a huge advantage here for Kentucky. The price

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Speaker 2: in this region is wrong too. The numbers should be

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Speaker 2: minus one thirty on Kentucky and the true series price

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Speaker 2: for Indiana State should be plus one forty. So for

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Speaker 2: that reason, Indiana State plus two seventy five when I

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Speaker 2: wrote it up. There's a lot of books. I think

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Speaker 2: numbers are starting to move pretty heavy, But the line

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Speaker 2: that I would stop buying Indiana State is plus one forty.

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Speaker 2: Indiana State is expected to be a minus one forty

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Speaker 2: favorite over Illinois on the first day and then potentially

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Speaker 2: plus one hundred plus one ten against Kentucky against Mason

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Speaker 2: Moore or maybe Trey Pooser they hold him back for

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Speaker 2: day two. But it should not be this big of

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Speaker 2: a gap between these teams and these regional prices, So

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Speaker 2: use that as your ruler. Plus one forty on the Sycamores.

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Speaker 2: I think Indiana State comes to play, and frankly, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot here caliber is between Kentucky and Indiana State

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Speaker 2: where the numbers are just almost the same. I'm looking

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Speaker 2: at bullpennyr, I'm looking at bullpen fit bullpen x FIP

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Speaker 2: runs per game. There's not a lot of difference between

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Speaker 2: Indiana State and Kentucky. Just so happens that one of

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Speaker 2: them played in the SEC and beat some of the

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Speaker 2: best teams in the nation. So we'll see what the

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Speaker 2: Sycamores can do. But the price is outrageous. I would

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Speaker 2: buy it all the way down to plus one point forty.

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Speaker 3: There's some questions about your process for you know, the

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Speaker 3: audience that may be tuning in in earnest for the

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Speaker 3: first time this entire season, How do you know, kind

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Speaker 3: of separate out the fool's gold of the stats because

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Speaker 3: you look at a team like Kentucky who struggled a

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Speaker 3: little bit offensively and certainly didn't play the kind of

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Speaker 3: explosive offense and you know, being able to hang crooked numbers.

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Speaker 3: But this is a sport where you can score fifteen

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Speaker 3: runs in one game and no one really bats an eyelash,

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Speaker 3: and all of a sudden, your average, you know, you're slugging,

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Speaker 3: you're on base, your runs per game, everything goes through

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Speaker 3: the roof. So how do you separate that out? Do

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Speaker 3: you look at it purely as you know what they

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Speaker 3: were able to accomplish in the rugged SEC having so

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Speaker 3: many impressive series wins. Where do you look at their

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Speaker 3: whole body of work?

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Speaker 2: Well, actually I do that by conference. So when I

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Speaker 2: actually go and plug in the projected pitchers, I have

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Speaker 2: a factor that I will put in that is a

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Speaker 2: conference boost. I only do this when I get into

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Speaker 2: the postseason because you know, a team from the SEC

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Speaker 2: playing a team from the Missouri Valley, it's not really

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Speaker 2: on an even playing field. So there's always a factor

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Speaker 2: that will go into that that will boost the SEC

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Speaker 2: and acc up by I don't know, forty to sixty cents,

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Speaker 2: So that's always in play there. It's just because of

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Speaker 2: the strength of schedule. I mean, Kentucky's taken losses that

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Speaker 2: they would have never taken in conference play in the

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Speaker 2: Missouri Valley, so that is one way to do it.

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Speaker 2: But other than that, I mean, if you know people

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Speaker 2: that know how to build a baseball line, you're using

292
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Speaker 2: calculated base runs a lot. You mentioned if a team

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Speaker 2: scores fifteen base runs is not runs per game. It's

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Speaker 2: not that you scored fifteen. You could have done that

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Speaker 2: with eighteen singles, right, You could have done that with

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Speaker 2: fifteen solo shots. So base runs is such a huge component.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if it's MLB or college baseball. If

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Speaker 2: you know your base runs, then you know your actual

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Speaker 2: runs per game for a team. So those are a

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Speaker 2: couple of the elements that go into it. There's not

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Speaker 2: a lot of difference, like I said, between Indiana State

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Speaker 2: and Kentucky. The difference is wow Kat's play in the SEC.

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Speaker 3: So waiting to meet the winner of the Lexington Regional

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Speaker 3: is the winner out of corballis on the West Coast,

305
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Speaker 3: Oregon State carrying the flag here for the Pac twelve

306
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Speaker 3: their last hurrah. They are the one here. They're taking

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Speaker 3: on two Lane on Friday, and the two verse three

308
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Speaker 3: is an interesting matchup. You see Irvine the ant Eaters

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Speaker 3: taking on Nichols. When you look at the pricing to

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Speaker 3: win this regional Oregon State just about it even money

311
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Speaker 3: minus one fifteen, UCI at plus one, ninety two Lane

312
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Speaker 3: at eleven to two, and Nichols at sixteen to one.

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Speaker 3: This is another one. We're gonna take a shot on

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Speaker 3: the second favorite out of this pod. You see Irvine,

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Speaker 3: in my opinion, is built for the road and grinding

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Speaker 3: out wins their fourth and road RPI their second and

317
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Speaker 3: on base percentage thirtieth in team era and they hit

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Speaker 3: three sixteen as a team, which is tenth in the

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Speaker 3: country and fourth in this field of sixty four. And

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Speaker 3: when you look down the road at a potential matchup

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Speaker 3: against Camats, he hasn't had a great May, and to me,

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Speaker 3: Oregon State was kind of built around him being an

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Speaker 3: All American level pitcher. He got run off by Wazoo

324
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Speaker 3: about three weeks ago, didn't make it out of the

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Speaker 3: third inning against UCLA, gave up six runs in that spot.

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Speaker 3: So I think the Beaves are absolutely beatable in this spot.

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Speaker 3: And you see, Irvine was a team that I circled

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Speaker 3: because they have so much better in experience. They have

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Speaker 3: a pitching staff that I don't think is gonna get rattled,

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Speaker 3: and at least in this pod, there's not a lineup

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Speaker 3: that strikes fear into me. Vis a VI what U

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Speaker 3: see I brings from a staff perspective. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: go with the en Eaters at close to two to one.

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Speaker 2: I love it. I have you see Irvine as the

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Speaker 2: play at two to one here, but you know, you

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Speaker 2: see Irvine is in a similar boat to Arkansas. And

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Speaker 2: I will say this, when are you going to pitch

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Speaker 2: your ace? When is Nick Pento going to pitch for?

339
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Speaker 2: You see Irvine? Are you going to pitch him in

340
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Speaker 2: game one or are you going to wait to pitch

341
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Speaker 2: him potentially against Oregon State, whether it's Jacob k Matz

342
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Speaker 2: or Aiden May, we don't know if these managers, you

343
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Speaker 2: know they have a history. You can go back and look,

344
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Speaker 2: but are you gonna hold your ace on Friday or Saturday?

345
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Speaker 2: Are you gonna You know, some pitchers don't like that.

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Speaker 2: They like to go on their rotation night they get

347
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Speaker 2: out of sync. They don't like it. But when you

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Speaker 2: look at U see Irvine, I mean they Nick Pento

349
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Speaker 2: is the difference maker here. If he was up against

350
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Speaker 2: Jacob k Maatz on day two, he would be a

351
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Speaker 2: minus one twenty five favorite. If he's up against Aiden May,

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Speaker 2: it's more of about a minus one twenty in favor

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Speaker 2: of the Oregon State. But it's not this huge gap

354
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Speaker 2: that's in this betting market right now. So again this

355
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Speaker 2: is a thing where organ State should be minus one

356
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Speaker 2: ten on their own home turf. You see Irvine should

357
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Speaker 2: be minus one ten. Also Nichols, Like I did a

358
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Speaker 2: little studying on Nichols. They have a one victory in

359
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Speaker 2: quad one Quad two games. That's it. They did beat

360
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Speaker 2: Southern Miss back in February. I mean, I just I

361
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Speaker 2: can't go down the path. We will get down some

362
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Speaker 2: three and four seeds, but I can't do it here

363
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Speaker 2: with Nichols one win in the quad one, Quad two range.

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Speaker 2: So I kind of threw them out. Really, it's about

365
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Speaker 2: where Nick Pento is. So you have two choices here,

366
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Speaker 2: take you see Irvine two to one, or don't make

367
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Speaker 2: any regional bet whatsoever, and wait to find out if

368
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Speaker 2: Pento's throwing Friday or Saturday. But you're backing Nick Pento

369
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Speaker 2: where you see Aravine.

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Speaker 3: Here and Pinzo is a great play as well because

371
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Speaker 3: of you know, the COVID, the extra eligibility years, all

372
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Speaker 3: of these things that have happened in college basketball and

373
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Speaker 3: college football where you have an incredible amount of starts.

374
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Speaker 3: He is someone who's done it on the diamond. I

375
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Speaker 3: think he's, you know, now flirting with north of sixty

376
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Speaker 3: starts in his career. That's somebody who wants the ball

377
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Speaker 3: in his hand in a pivotabal moment for you see Aravine.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's go on to the college station regional

379
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Speaker 3: looking at Texas. A and M hosting there. They're gonna

380
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Speaker 3: grab grambling on Friday night, which should be a breeze

381
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Speaker 3: for them, But after that it gets a little bit tricky.

382
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Speaker 3: Louisiana out of the Sun Belt is going to play

383
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Speaker 3: Texas in the two to three matchup, and we'll get

384
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Speaker 3: through it quickly. Here. A and M minus one fifty

385
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 3: the favorite to win here Texas at close to three

386
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:43,560
Speaker 3: to one plus two to seventy five plus two to

387
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Speaker 3: eighty Louisiana plus three seventy and then Grambling. I mean,

388
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Speaker 3: that's just a lottery ticket there at plus ten thousand.

389
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Speaker 3: The stats, they love the Aggies. You look at them.

390
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Speaker 3: They got power bats up and down the lineup. They's

391
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Speaker 3: seventh in the ARRA fourth and Whip played a ton

392
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Speaker 3: of quad one and two games, as most of the

393
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Speaker 3: SEC teams had, and went twenty two and thirteen in

394
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Speaker 3: those games. That just shows there's sustained level of excellence

395
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Speaker 3: against really good teams, many of them in this field.

396
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Speaker 3: We talked about it earlier on the YouTube show that

397
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Speaker 3: the SEC sent a record eleven teams to this tournament.

398
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Speaker 3: They were there facing them week in and week out,

399
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Speaker 3: so that certainly made them a little bit sharper coming

400
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 3: into this tournament. But talk to me about Louisiana, because

401
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,159
Speaker 3: when I look at their numbers, they at least peaked

402
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 3: my interest a little bit, and we talked about the

403
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,600
Speaker 3: potential for upsets coming into this tournament. Their fifth and

404
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,520
Speaker 3: road RPI. They beat Southern miss in their season series.

405
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 3: They also beat Tulane in a Southern series and Kyle

406
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 3: DeBarge at short and Trede Lafleur at first. These guys

407
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:40,360
Speaker 3: are not household names, but they are incredible hitters. I mean,

408
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Speaker 3: I guess my only pushback here is it all moot

409
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 3: in terms of their lineup, if their bullpen has been

410
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Speaker 3: as rocky as they have been in the last month,

411
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Speaker 3: or do they have what it takes to potentially throw

412
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Speaker 3: a scare into the aggies.

413
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Speaker 2: That's the huge problem here with Louisiana and Texas. They

414
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Speaker 2: each average six point eight and seven point two runs

415
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Speaker 2: per game. That's it, really, it's just not gonna get

416
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Speaker 2: it done. Plus Louisiana, who is fantastic on the road

417
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,160
Speaker 2: this season fourteen and five, so they really could leave

418
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Speaker 2: Lafayette and give a lot of people some problems. Their

419
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Speaker 2: best pitcher is LP Langeman, their closer. Now he's not

420
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 2: really a closer. They'll bring him in the sixth he

421
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 2: started three games where they are in a jam. They'll

422
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 2: bring him in. He's one of the best closers in

423
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Speaker 2: all of the regionals. I just don't think there's enough

424
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Speaker 2: offense for Louisiana and Texas to hang with this Texas

425
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 2: A and M team. Oh plus there's a problem. And

426
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Speaker 2: his name is Ryan Prager. Ryan Peger, the ace for

427
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 2: Texas A and M. Projects minus three point thirty at

428
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,200
Speaker 2: a minimum against any other pitcher in this region. Once

429
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 2: you get past that, that's where I thought Louisiana and

430
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,679
Speaker 2: Texas could potentially give Texas A and M a lot

431
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,119
Speaker 2: of problems. But when I started plugging in Justin Lamkin

432
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: and some of these other Texas A and M names,

433
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 2: minus one ninety to minus two fifty favorites over every

434
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 2: single pitching combination. So once you get past that and

435
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 2: you come up with a true series price, it was

436
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: so much higher than I could have believed. It was

437
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,880
Speaker 2: Texas A and M minus three hundred. I'm a bi

438
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,200
Speaker 2: of minus one fifty. I'm a buyer of the minus

439
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 2: one eighties that are out there. I'm a buyer of

440
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 2: Texas A and M all the way I mean. You

441
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 2: look at a brand name like Texas, you see the

442
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: Louisiana won the Sun Belt, and the sun Belt is

443
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 2: a strong league, but they just do not have the offense.

444
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 2: I think Texas A and M got away with one.

445
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: No one's coming to Blue Belt Park with a huge

446
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 2: lineup of sticks that can give them problems.

447
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 3: By the way, you convinced me, I'm gonna be on

448
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 3: A and M as well. I just want to kick

449
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 3: the tires on Louisiana.

450
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 4: This podcast is presented by bet MGM. Use bonus code

451
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,000
Speaker 4: action when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred

452
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453
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454
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 4: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

455
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 4: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one

456
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 4: plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

457
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 3: We go from College Station to Santa Barbara. Talk about

458
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 3: a big culture shock between those two locations. This one, though,

459
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 3: the fourteen seed, the Gauchos, This is arguably the most

460
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 3: fun pod in all the regionals. Top to bottom. The

461
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 3: sixty four teams they're playing this four pack, I think

462
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 3: are incredibly intriguing. You see Santa Barbara plus one thirty

463
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 3: five to win here, the Treros of San Diego plus

464
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 3: two to fifty, Oregon a matching plus two to fifty,

465
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 3: and then Fresno as the long shot as the four

466
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 3: at nine to one. Anyone can win it because the

467
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 3: top three teams are solid on the mound. San Diego

468
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 3: and Oregon excelled on the road as well, ninth and

469
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 3: fifteenth in road RPI respectively. Fresno is nothing more than

470
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 3: a speed bump, really, but even at nine to one,

471
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 3: they at least compare to you know, teams that we've

472
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 3: already mentioned, like Grambling at least have a better shot

473
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 3: in terms of how they're viewed by odds makers. But

474
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 3: I'm going to back it up here. I would argue

475
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: that this is an interesting play to go with a

476
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 3: unit each on San Diego and Oregon. And here's why

477
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 3: I think fading. You see Santa Barbara, who has won

478
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,639
Speaker 3: fourteen in a row, by the way, like there is

479
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 3: a team that hasn't lost in May, Ryan Gallagher, Mike Gutierrez.

480
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 3: They've been a great one two and Gallagher avoids giving

481
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,959
Speaker 3: up extra base hits. He's incredibly skilled in this department.

482
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: He's only given up twelve all season and he's pitched

483
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 3: almost eighty four full innings, so that's incredible. But when

484
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 3: I look at what San Diego brings to the table.

485
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 3: You talked about him in our last podcast, as well

486
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 3: as Oregon there's just something about this pod, and I mean,

487
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 3: obviously your eyes go to the favorite being plus money.

488
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 3: I think there's something special potentially about the Tarero's in particular,

489
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 3: but also having watched a decent amount of Oregon State baseball,

490
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 3: I caught their series against the Ducks. I think Oregon

491
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 3: could put on a little bit of a run here,

492
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: and I would argue this is the most wide open

493
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 3: pod of all the regionals. Do you agree with that

494
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 3: assessment or does you know you c SB still offer

495
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 3: value plus one thirty five.

496
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 2: I think Tucson is more open than anything out there,

497
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 2: But you're you're right, this one does have competitors. This

498
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: one isn't a slam dunk whatsoever. You know you mentioned

499
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 2: Ryan Gallagher pitching for UC Santa Barbara. He has been

500
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 2: one of the best pitchers in the game. We've mentioned

501
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: him before. I think what people don't realize is that

502
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: Matt Ager was their original ace anchor of the staff,

503
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 2: and he got more to the bullpen after a few

504
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 2: weeks in the season. So you get a game where

505
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: Gallagher starts and Agger finishes like it's not. It has

506
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 2: not been easy for teams at all to face the Gauchos.

507
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: Now when you look at this, you know Gallagher is

508
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 2: going to be favored by minus three thirty or better

509
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: against everybody now there are you know, I did do

510
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 2: some cross, you know, against R. J. Gordon of Oregon.

511
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 2: I look at Josh Randall of San Diego. Gallagher is

512
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 2: still a pretty heavy favorite in there. But then when

513
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 2: you go to the second option of the Gauchos, Mike Gutierrez,

514
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 2: he actually presents as a favorite over all the Torrero's

515
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 2: and all of the Ducks options as well. I love

516
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 2: San Diego, I want San Diego. I have a future

517
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 2: on San Diego on hundred and ninety to one. But

518
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 2: at the same time, from a pricing perspective, this is

519
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 2: still super low. You see Santa Barbara, minus one fifteen

520
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 2: was the pick for me, But I would not take

521
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 2: this at minus one twenty five. I'm not sure if

522
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 2: I take it at minus one twenty And still you're

523
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: gonna take a U See Santa barbera ticket, You've got

524
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: work to do when the pitcher is not named Brian Gallagher.

525
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 2: So bet against u CEE Santa Barber at your own risk.

526
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 2: But you're gonna have to pay attention late at night

527
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:05,959
Speaker 2: when this thing is going on the West coast and

528
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 2: cover up in games where the gauchos are not throwing Gallagher.

529
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 3: We go to Chapehill, North Carolina for the fourth seed

530
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 3: in the regional, and that are the tar Heels they're

531
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 3: taking on Long Island. They get a breather here right

532
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 3: out of the gate on Friday night, but that's about

533
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 3: as good as the good news gets because they got

534
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 3: a surging defending national championship team in LSU coming in

535
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 3: and Wofford is the three UNC price at minus one ten,

536
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 3: LSU at plus one ten, so essentially co favorites there,

537
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 3: Wafford at nine to one in LU getting the Grambling

538
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 3: treatment ten thousand to one. My thoughts on this for

539
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 3: pretty simple. Poor you and Cy. You go ahead and

540
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: win the ACC regular season, your top twenty five and

541
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 3: nearly every meaningful metric with a great staff, and for

542
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 3: your efforts, you draw LSU. That's going full Undertaker meme,

543
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 3: you know, sitting up out of the coffin all of

544
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 3: a sudden. LSU what they did in the SEC tournament.

545
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: They dog walk Georgia in nine to one. They run

546
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 3: Kentucky Adah Hoover with an eleven zero shutout, the outlast

547
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 3: South Carolina and back to back games eleven ten and

548
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 3: twelve to eleven in extras, and they nearly upset Tennessee

549
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 3: to win the tournament championship. They lose four to three

550
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 3: there in the SEC title game. It's not just Tommy

551
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 3: White and Jared Jones either. This lineup really woke up.

552
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: It's great to have those two superstars, and they're guys

553
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 3: that can do it with average, they can do it

554
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 3: with power. But the fact of the matter is they

555
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 3: have to come together as an entire team to make this,

556
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 3: you know, run back to Omaha. It looks like they

557
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 3: have that fight. How much danger is North Carolina in

558
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 3: this spot on their home diamond.

559
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: They're in danger and that is saying something considering the

560
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 2: amount of respect that I have for North Carolina to

561
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 2: be able to run through the ACC and not even

562
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 2: need the last weekend to win the regular season title.

563
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 2: I mean, this team is for real and you did

564
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: it with freshman pitchers. I mean, it is a hell

565
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 2: of a job that the Diamond Heels have had this year.

566
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: The problem is is LSU is absolutely hitting peak right now,

567
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 2: and I think the thing that really got me during

568
00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 2: the SEC tournament is the amount of Omaha experience they

569
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 2: still have on the staff, right? I mean, I know

570
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 2: Tommy White is there, but when you go into thatcher

571
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 2: Herd Holman, Christian Little, Nate Ackenhausen, I mean you're looking

572
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 2: at guys that were under the lights in Omaha ceiling

573
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 2: a national championship game. And I know that I did

574
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: not say Gage Jump and Luke Holeman, or are there

575
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: two front starters and deserve to be? LSU is firing

576
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 2: on all cylinders right now. So I figured this would

577
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 2: be the team that probably takes more money than anybody

578
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: leading up to regionals. We'll see how that market works

579
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: out and where is the resistance and what should the

580
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: price be? I was uber interested when I started doing

581
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: the numbers. What should the actual price be? When you

582
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: look at North Carolina starters from Shay Sprague and Jason DeCaro,

583
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: who were going to be number game one and game

584
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 2: two pitchers, if you put them up against Gage Jump

585
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 2: and Luke Holeman of LSU, no matter what combination you

586
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 2: put in, it's never more than minus one twenty anywhere

587
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 2: minus one zho five and minus one twenty. So that

588
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 2: tells me that This is another one of those regions

589
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: where it is uber tight. The number is very important here.

590
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 2: You see LSU at plus money, which I saw out

591
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: in the market plus one oh five plus one ten,

592
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 2: that's a play. You see North Carolina fall down to

593
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 2: plus one oh five or plus one ten by the

594
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 2: end of the week, that is also a play. So

595
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: I think, really what you need to do is, if

596
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: you want to get cute, I'd play LSU plus money

597
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 2: right now as we're recording this, or maybe on Wednesday morning,

598
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 2: and then I would turn around Friday afternoon and probably

599
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 2: take North Carolina because I think LSU is going to

600
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,479
Speaker 2: take a ton of cash here. But this is a

601
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 2: really tough spot for North Carolina. But it's a coin flip.

602
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 2: It is one hundred percent a coin flip. I don't

603
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 2: know if I mean I'm gonna I wrote up LSU

604
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 2: because it's plus money. But at the same time, this

605
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 2: is a really tough one to pick.

606
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 3: Whether it's the tar Heels or the Bayou Bengals coming

607
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 3: out of that regional, who are they going to get

608
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 3: in the super regional we teased it the Tucson The

609
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 3: regional is wide open, and when you look at the

610
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 3: way that they're being priced. It's also being priced that way.

611
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: Arizona is the one seed. Then you have the four

612
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 3: seed in Grand Canyon playing Friday night, Dallas Baptist the

613
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 3: two against the three seed in West Virginia U of

614
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 3: A plus one seventy five Dallas Baptists also plus one

615
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 3: seventy five West Virginia plus three thirty and Grand Canyon

616
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 3: at plus six fifty. I'm all about the Patriots here.

617
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 3: I put down my stake. This is the team. This

618
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 3: is my favorite play at plus money in the regionals.

619
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 3: They make it really hard to score. Their eleventh and

620
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 3: whip eighth and staff era and second in fielding percentage.

621
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 3: So when you think about getting out of jams with

622
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: double plays, making sure that you don't have any errors,

623
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 3: or giving extra opportunities to the teams you're playing here,

624
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: you have to earn it against DBU. And they have

625
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 3: big bats in this lineup, like catcher Grant Jay is

626
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 3: somebody who can smash the ball all over. He's got

627
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 3: power to you know, basically everywhere in the park and

628
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: in totally. They have four hitters in this lineup slugging

629
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: over six hundred by the end of the day. I'm

630
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 3: hitching my wagon to Ryan Johnson. Huge frame, he's six

631
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 3: 't six, He's got a unique delivery. He's someone that

632
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 3: I really encourage if you get a chance to watch

633
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 3: him on Friday or Saturday, get to the television because

634
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: he's one that you just look at him and he

635
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 3: looks different. His movement on his slider is incredibly nasty.

636
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 3: It's help him hit double digit k's with ease time

637
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 3: and time again, and the other element before they even

638
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 3: went to this pitchclock. In Major League Baseball, there's just

639
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 3: some pitchers that work really fast, and it makes it

640
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 3: difficult for batters to dig in and to really get,

641
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 3: you know, on the same page, or to be able

642
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 3: to guess where these next pitches are coming from. He

643
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 3: works so quickly, he gets into a rhythm, he gets

644
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 3: into a ladder, and then he adds in this cutter

645
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 3: that jams hitters. He makes everybody uncomfortable. And for that reason,

646
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 3: I think the Pats are going to win this one

647
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 3: and take on you and see or LSU and the

648
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 3: super Regionals. What are your thoughts on I mean, you

649
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 3: could probably make a solid argument for West Virginia at

650
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: plus three thirty as well, because I know we are

651
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 3: not racing to the window to take the Wildcats.

652
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not racing to the window to take West Virginia,

653
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: So let's go ahead and knock them out. They lost

654
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: one of their best options out of the bullpen and

655
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: David Hageman in the middle of the season, and they

656
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 2: just have not been the same since they had that

657
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 2: hot streak in the Big Twelve. I don't think they're

658
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: going to be able to hang here. They also average

659
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 2: six point seven runs per game. Just not going to

660
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 2: be able to get it done. So you know that's

661
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 2: the one team I don't like. Now, let's get this

662
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 2: out of the way here, because I promise everybody a

663
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: Grand Canyon play is coming into the Action app and

664
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 2: I will be the first one to hit it in

665
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: the market. When you take Grand Canyons Ace Grant Richardson

666
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 2: and you put him up against Arizona's Ace Jackson Kent

667
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 2: in the first game, or maybe Arizona goes Clark Candyotty,

668
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: we don't know. Grand Canyon should be a minimum minus

669
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 2: one twenty favorite as a four seed over a one

670
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: hosting one seed. I couldn't believe it when I saw

671
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: the numbers. Myself. But Grand Canyon not sure if we're

672
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 2: going to come in money line, not sure if we're

673
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: going to come in run line, but they should be

674
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: favored over the regional host. That is crazy, but that

675
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 2: tells you what you know the fourth seed can do here.

676
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: So you know, I think Grand Canyon has as good

677
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: of a shot as anybody. Now Dallas Baptists, I agree

678
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 2: with you. Ryan Johnson is the pitcher to back here.

679
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 2: And you know what you have to do is take

680
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 2: James Elwanger, their second pitcher, match him up against Clark

681
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 2: Candyatty of Arizona, match him up against Jack and Kent

682
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,479
Speaker 2: of Arizona, and when you do that, you find out

683
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: the Dallas Baptist is going to be a minus one

684
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 2: thirty to a minus two to thirty favorite over everybody

685
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 2: else in this regional. The number is completely mispriced. Oddsmakers

686
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 2: put it up because of the seating. I don't think

687
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 2: they got a pretty good idea where they got this number,

688
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: and I think it was pretty lazy. Dallas Baptist I

689
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 2: would take down to plus one thirty ish plus one

690
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: forty ish When Calburies and I first started looking at this,

691
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 2: after they made the announcements. Dallas Baptist was out there

692
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: at about plus two to eighty. That's been whacked and

693
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: it's going to keep getting whacked as you listen to

694
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: this podcast. I would take it down to Dallas Baptist

695
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 2: plus one thirty. Ryan Johnson is going to steamroll West Virginia,

696
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: and then after that, Mike Gutierre is going to be

697
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 2: favored over Grand Canyon, Arizona. Who knows who he's going

698
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 2: to face. So I like the Patriots this weekend, all.

699
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 3: Right, we go from Dallas Baptist hashtag Champions for Christ

700
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 3: to your favorite team in the Fayetteville Regional. We have

701
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 3: the Arkansas Razorbacks. They are number one down there hosting

702
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 3: Simo as the Force, and then the two to three

703
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 3: matchup on Friday, LA Tech against K State Arkansas. I

704
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 3: was a little surprised to see this number at south

705
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 3: of two to one minus one, ninety K State plus

706
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,479
Speaker 3: three fifty LA Tech plus four to fifty, and Simo

707
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 3: at a long shot at twenty five to one. We

708
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 3: know that the Hogs can shut teams down with their

709
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 3: staff that's been well established. The top of their rotation

710
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: is as good as it gets in college baseball. This year.

711
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: Can they score enough runs to win in Omaha. That's

712
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 3: a question that we'll put on the shelf for later.

713
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to really bite them in

714
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 3: this regional though, because when you look at LA Tech

715
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 3: and K State, they do not have the pop to

716
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 3: crack this Hog's pitching staff and Simo, who does have

717
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: solid hitting numbers. Their strength to schedule was future. They're

718
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy fifth there. They played just six

719
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 3: games against Quad one and two competition. They went two

720
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,479
Speaker 3: and four there. This isn't I won't go as far

721
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 3: as say this is a free square, but this feels

722
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 3: pretty close. And I'm just shocked by the number. I

723
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 3: know that, you know there's issues potentially with a deep

724
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: run and you know, winning in Omaha and you know,

725
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 3: putting together something that's never happened in Fayetteville. The fan

726
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 3: starved for this College World Series. But we'll get to

727
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 3: that later. As it relates to this regional, I think

728
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 3: they should be minus three hundred. Am I seeing this right?

729
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 2: Yeah? You are seeing it right. And you know the

730
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: thing is is Arkansas got extremely lucky. They did not

731
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 2: want a huge offensive lineup coming into bomb Walker stadium.

732
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 2: They didn't want NC State, they didn't want some of

733
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: these other two seeds. As you see, I'm sorry NC State,

734
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 2: whatever they that's who we lost to a few years ago.

735
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 2: They just did not need a power hitting two seed

736
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 2: coming in there because they can be pushed around. Hagen

737
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 2: Smith doesn't go the full nine. I mean when he

738
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 2: comes out, you can peck away at the bullpen. I

739
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 2: mean still he gives up an earned runner two. It

740
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 2: happens from time to time. But Louisiana Tech, Kansas State,

741
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 2: they do not have the offense for this. Their numbers are,

742
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 2: you know, not where they should be. One hundred and

743
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 2: seventy seven and slugging for Kansas State, while LA Tech

744
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 2: hanging around one hundred when it comes to obp and ops. So,

745
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: you know, really tough numbers offensively, and that matches what

746
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: our it does, which is great fielding and great pitching.

747
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 2: So Hagen Smith is going to be a monster favorite.

748
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: Minus five to ninety, probably higher than that. It's going

749
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: to steam in the market. That is in great opportunity

750
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 2: to take a Semo run line. Guys, I'm telling Usimo

751
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 2: Calbaris is right. Simo is the one team in this

752
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 2: whole entire region that can hit. Arkansas averages less than

753
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 2: seven runs per game. You see a six and a

754
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 2: half or a five and a half run line out

755
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: there on CIMO, you gotta shed a little Chipoti money.

756
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 2: It's a little KFC money, whatever it is you like

757
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: to eat. Put some money on that run line with

758
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 2: CIMO because Arkansas just doesn't score a lot of runs.

759
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: Plus they're going to hold back for Saturday too, But

760
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 2: you're right, the number should be way higher than minus

761
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 2: one ninety. I would say minus two to fifty is

762
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 2: about the highest that I would go here. Razorbacks got

763
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 2: really lucky with this draw because nobody has the sticks

764
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: to challenge them.

765
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 3: All right, they make it to the super Regional. Who

766
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 3: are they going to take on? We look to the

767
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 3: Charlottesville Regional for that answer. The twelve seed there, Virginia

768
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 3: hosting Penn in the one four matchup in Mississippi State

769
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 3: against Saint John's in the two three UVA minus one

770
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,399
Speaker 3: twenty to win this thing Mississippi State at plus money

771
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 3: at plus one thirty, and then you got the two

772
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 3: city schools. Saint John's thanks for coming down thirteen to one.

773
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 3: Penn twenty five to one, So I'm going to put

774
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: them cast them aside immediately. Just a conversation. Do I

775
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 3: want Virginia at a very reasonable price for the host?

776
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 3: Or do I on a Mississippi State team that has

777
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 3: shown flashes and certainly had to cut their teeth in

778
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 3: the most challenging conference in baseball. Give me the Bulldogs.

779
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 3: The Bulldogs. Like I said, I've laid out this formula before.

780
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 3: I like it. I like teams that make you earn it.

781
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 3: They don't give away, you know, flubs in the infield,

782
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 3: and then you know, being able to put on these

783
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 3: you know, long innings, these marathon innings where you got

784
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 3: to bring in lots of different pitchers and burn up

785
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 3: your staff. They're fourth in fielding their eighth and whip

786
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 3: so they're not given out free bases anywhere. They're twelfth

787
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 3: in teamy or and additionally, even when it doesn't go

788
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 3: into you know, into the field of play, they're fourteenth

789
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 3: and k's per nine. So this staff in general, I

790
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,800
Speaker 3: think is phenomenal. You'll get their top of the rotation.

791
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 3: It's really a one A and one B situation. You

792
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: got Steven and you got Sanja. Their strikeout machines so

793
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 3: I like the Bulldogs here. I'm a little bit surprised

794
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 3: to be able to grab an sec two in this entire,

795
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: you know, regional section of the postseason, to be able

796
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: to get him at plus money. I'm just gonna run

797
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 3: to the window and grab it before I think it's

798
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 3: going to close, probably closer to even money by the

799
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 3: time we get to Friday.

800
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 2: Is that the official how to pronounce his name for

801
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: BBOC Sanja? Or is that is that I've been wor

802
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: it's hard. It's been two js in a name, and

803
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 2: I think there's more js in our vows. I didn't

804
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 2: even sure that's possible.

805
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, there was just a whole bunch of letters that

806
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 3: were trying to trip me up, and I just went

807
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 3: right to the fanatic guide on that one, because he

808
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 3: deserves to have his name pronounced correctly. Because this kid

809
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 3: is absolutely electric on the bump.

810
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 2: And the Dexters throws left arm and right arm. It's

811
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 2: pretty good. So we're talking about Durant Duranglo Sanjay Listen.

812
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: I wanted Mississippi State really bad. I thought this was

813
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 2: going to be an auto bet. I know I have

814
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,240
Speaker 2: a futures ticket rumbling around on one of my accounts.

815
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: So I've got to go probably cover that up, because

816
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 2: once I did the projections of the pitchers, it is

817
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 2: all Virginia. And there is a serious problem here for

818
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,399
Speaker 2: Mississippi State. They have struggled on offense. Now they came

819
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 2: alive in Hoover a little bit enough to challenge everybody,

820
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 2: but they still have rankings outside the top one hundred

821
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 2: and so many important categories, home runs per nine, slugging

822
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 2: on base, they're just not there. Who's top ten in

823
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 2: all those categories? Virginia. Now Here is where it's important.

824
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 2: Where are they playing this game. Disharun Park that is

825
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 2: the biggest launch pad in all of college baseball. Their

826
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 2: park factor's number are leaps and bound higher than any

827
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 2: other region going on this weekend, higher than Stillwater, higher

828
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 2: than a lot of other places. And so what you're

829
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 2: going to have to have is an offense with instant

830
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 2: pop in this park, because this is where Virginia just

831
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 2: slams runs home like there's no tomorrow. You can't have

832
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 2: a weak bullpen, sorry Saint John's, sorry Penn. You can't

833
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 2: have any deficiencies in you're pitching whatsoever. And you got

834
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 2: to score runs. I think it really comes down to

835
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 2: the pitching matchups. Evan Blanco, Joe Savino, I project them

836
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: both is minus one thirty favorites against Cayl Steven and

837
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 2: Jerangelo Sanjay. So you know, for that reason alone, Virginia

838
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: plus one hundred is the pick for the region. I

839
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 2: want Mississippi State. I love the story, I love SEC teams.

840
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 2: It's a national champion from a few years ago. But

841
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 2: the numbers just aren't there for me. Uh, you know,

842
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 2: Virginia has gotten a little bit of disrespect, and I

843
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 2: think it's oddsmakers too. They know that these SEC teams

844
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 2: are gonna draw a lot of money before first pitch.

845
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 3: All right, turning to the Clemson Regional, the Tigers hosting

846
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 3: high Point in the one to four matchup, and then

847
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 3: the Vandy Boys against Coastal Carolina in that two to

848
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 3: three matchup. We look first at the numbers being hung

849
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 3: by sportsbooks. Clemson plus one oh five to win on

850
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 3: their home diamond, Dandy plus one sixty, Coastal at nine

851
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 3: to two, and then we got high Point at thirty

852
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 3: five to one. When you look at the whole season,

853
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 3: Bandy was outside the top one hundred and twenty five

854
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 3: and homers one hundred and seventy fifth and on base

855
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 3: and they were awful on the road one hundred and

856
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 3: ninety seventh in road. RPI at far cry from a

857
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 3: very proud program that's been at the very top of

858
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 3: this sport for so many years. But here's the thing,

859
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 3: just like that LSU team that got all the mojo

860
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 3: working down the stretch, they won four of their last

861
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 3: five away from home, including wins over Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee,

862
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 3: and Mississippi State. I think that's why you see these

863
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 3: numbers so close between Clemson and Vandy to win this

864
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 3: regional and then you got Coastal, who to me, Coastal

865
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 3: when I look at their numbers is the scene from

866
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 3: Moneyball with Brad Pitt snapping his fingers at Jonahill. What

867
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 3: do they do? They get on base seventeenth and on

868
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 3: base percentage. And despite being from the Sun Belt, which

869
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 3: I think the casuals would say, oh, you know, it's

870
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 3: a mid major league, you can make some strong arguments

871
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 3: that it's right up there third or fourth best baseball

872
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 3: league in America. They had a twentieth rated strength of schedule,

873
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 3: So at that price at nine to two, I think

874
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 3: a flyer here is definitely in play. I'm probably going

875
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 3: to throw a little bit of couch change. I think

876
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 3: what you call a KFC, little Caesars, whatever you got,

877
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,320
Speaker 3: throw a little bit of money on the shots. I

878
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 3: think there's a chance that they get to a spot

879
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 3: where potentially they control their destiny. Here. We'll see that

880
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 3: two three matched up against Vandy. As I mentioned, the

881
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 3: road RPI for the whole season was horrific for the Commodoors,

882
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 3: so I think it might be interesting to back a

883
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 3: Sunbelt team there. And also at the very top of

884
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 3: this region, the team that's toasting, I'm fading Clemson because

885
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,240
Speaker 3: I think they're really dependent on Aiden Nac pitching very well,

886
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 3: and as a young pitcher he can be boom or

887
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 3: bust against quality teams like Florida State Wake. He gave

888
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,399
Speaker 3: up six earned runs in each outing and that's all

889
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 3: recent work, So I don't know. I think Clemson is

890
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,839
Speaker 3: another one of those teams, a paper tiger perhaps out

891
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: of the ACC. I could see a two or three

892
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 3: seed steal in this one.

893
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: So first off, I'm gonna toss Coastal Carolina, so good

894
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 2: luck with that. But I mean, okay, Gary Gilmore is

895
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 2: going He let everybody know he's the head coach. He

896
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 2: let her know he was going into retirement. Coastal Carolina

897
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 2: was the seventh seed and they've been ice cold. They

898
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 2: lost nine straight games a couple of weeks ago, and

899
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: they've been ice cold. They didn't do anything in the

900
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 2: Sunbelt Tournament. Somehow they got in this. I think it's

901
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,280
Speaker 2: because of what they've done in the past. But Gary

902
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 2: Gilmore was a retirement bound and I believe like there

903
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 2: was an interview that he cut where he was already

904
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 2: on retirement, going on vacation, and he thought Coastal season

905
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 2: was over. Nope, you're gonna have to go play another weekend.

906
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 2: You're gonna Oh, by the way, you're gonna get Clemson,

907
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 2: and in Vanderbilt it's not very much fun. So listen,

908
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 2: there's no angle that I have on Coastal Carolina. From

909
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 2: a numbers perspective, Riley Eykoff would be favored a little

910
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 2: bit over Vanderbilt. If they throw Bryce Cunningham, we'll see

911
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 2: what the pitching matchup is going to be there. So

912
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 2: that was one reason why Vanderbilt's odds true price to win.

913
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 2: This is a little bit less because they have to

914
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 2: start off with Coastal Carolina as where Clemson gets high point,

915
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 2: which is gonna be absolutely nothing. When you look at

916
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: Clemson and Vanderbilt in a vacuum by themselves, it is

917
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 2: a complete coin flip minus one ten. Except for one

918
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: pitcher that you've already named, and that was Aiden Kannak.

919
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 2: He has been the most fantastic pitcher on all of

920
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 2: Clemson staff. He is a freshman. But if it's Ethan Darden,

921
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 2: if it's Tristan Smith and they're going up against you know,

922
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 2: anyone that Vanderbilt has, it's a complete coin flip. When

923
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 2: Aiden Kanak is in there, it's more like minus one sixty.

924
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 2: So the true price for Clemson is a fifty six

925
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 2: percent chance that they win this region, which correlates to

926
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: minus one thirty. So if you're into numbers and you

927
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: want to make sure that you have true value, Clemson

928
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 2: minus one ten is the play. But I can't say

929
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 2: that it has a ton of value because minus one

930
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: thirty is the true number here. At the same time,

931
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 2: what you're gonna do is you're gonna buy that Clemson

932
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 2: ticket minus one ten, and then when Aiden Kannak pitches

933
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 2: on probably Saturday. I really doubt they pitch him against

934
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 2: High Point. They'll probably save him for their biggest game. Again,

935
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 2: that is a place where you're gonna be able to

936
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 2: take the other side. There's a lot of opportunity to

937
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 2: take numbers now on Wednesday and come on the other

938
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,439
Speaker 2: side on Saturday when they face the other team's ace.

939
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 3: This next one, I hope that we are alliance. We're

940
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 3: going to still Water. The winner here is going to play,

941
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,080
Speaker 3: you know, whether that's Clemson or Vandy out of the

942
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 3: you know, the sixth region in Clemson. So let's look

943
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 3: at the teams in Stillwater. We got Oklahoma State hosting

944
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 3: at o Bright Stadium. They're taking on Niagara, who's forty

945
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 3: five to one to win this region. So thanks for

946
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 3: coming out, Purple Eagles. The two to three matchup Nebraska Florida.

947
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 3: When you look at the pricing overall, even money on

948
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 3: the Pokes on their home diamond, but the Florida Gators

949
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 3: plus one seventy five they snuck into the tournaments. Is

950
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 3: it going to be a situation where that top ten talent,

951
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 3: because that's how everyone was framing them, you know, back

952
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 3: in January. Does it finally all come together and in

953
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 3: a park where balls are going to be flying out

954
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 3: over the fence. Is this the kind of you know,

955
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 3: park factor to be able to add into a Florida

956
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 3: team that needs confidence. They get that early win on Friday,

957
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 3: is that a springboard to them winning this regional? Outright?

958
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts? Oh? And finally, Nebraska plus three

959
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 3: ninety It's just not a team that I necessarily like

960
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 3: in terms of their advanced stats, but I want to

961
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 3: give the corn Huskers their due. They are the two

962
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 3: seed here, but it is flipped in terms of the

963
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 3: pecking order from sportsbooks to win the regional.

964
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 2: Let's throw a little love on college football, you know how,

965
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 2: sometimes we like Toledo because they're the best in the MAC.

966
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 2: We can see in the numbers, we can see in

967
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,239
Speaker 2: the direction of the team. We love everything that's going on,

968
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 2: and this is who's going to win the game and

969
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 2: it should be a slam dunk. That's kind of how

970
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 2: I feel about this region. But then again, they show

971
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 2: up and the Kwanfinn has six turnovers and like boom,

972
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: you losed bowling Green, Right, That's kind of how I

973
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,439
Speaker 2: feel here because there's no numbers that I can put

974
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 2: on paper that say Florida has any chance whatsoever of

975
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 2: winning this region. Their pitching metrics are so bad. As

976
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 2: a staff, they have guys that are hovering around seven

977
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,800
Speaker 2: and eight with eer FIP and x FIP. It blows

978
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 2: all the numbers away. I don't care if I give

979
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 2: it the sec boost. I can't get them within plus

980
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:48,439
Speaker 2: one point forty in any certain matchup against Oklahoma State

981
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 2: or Nebraska. So I had a really hard time making

982
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: a case for Florida. But it's one of those things

983
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 2: where you just see it. Caliberties is like, I know

984
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,919
Speaker 2: Florida is going to be lethal here. I know Jack

985
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 2: Kaglion is going to have eight home runs this week. Again,

986
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:01,959
Speaker 2: I know they're going to put up fifteen a game.

987
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 2: But from a mathematical perspective, their pitching has been so

988
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 2: bad it takes them out of it, which says that

989
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State minus one ten should be the pick here.

990
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 2: Their true odds said about fifty six percent. Again, that's

991
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,399
Speaker 2: minus one thirty for a series price. But I think

992
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 2: there's going to be to me, this is a region

993
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 2: where I don't want to take someone pre regional. I

994
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 2: just want to bet overs. I just want to bet overs,

995
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 2: and you know what, I'll see who the pitching matchups are.

996
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 3: Now.

997
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 2: From a pitching matchup perspective, Sam Garcia Brian Holiday will

998
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 2: be minus one forty or better over anybody on Florida

999
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 2: and Nebraska staff. And that includes Brett Sears, who is

1000
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 2: fantastic for the Cornhuskers, but he's going to be an

1001
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 2: underdog if he makes it the game two against Oklahoma State.

1002
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:48,280
Speaker 2: So Oklahoma State's the official play. But at the same time,

1003
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,879
Speaker 2: I have a feeling about Florida Obraight Stadium. The ball

1004
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 2: is just going to fly out of there. Florida has

1005
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 2: the seventh in the nation in homers per game. I mean,

1006
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 2: they're just going to tear the cover off the ball.

1007
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 2: They're going to be able to hit to Arkansas. So

1008
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 2: you know, mathematic math says Oklahoma State. My eyeballs say

1009
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 2: Florida is going to catch a lot of overs and

1010
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 2: probably win this region.

1011
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 3: Just for our audience so they don't get sticker shock

1012
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 3: when they do see these totals come out. Say it's

1013
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 3: the number two picture for Oklahoma State and for Florida.

1014
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 3: What is a total like that going to settle in.

1015
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 2: That I think it's going to open sixteen and a

1016
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 2: half and get updated. I mean, if this is for

1017
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 2: if you guys are if everybody listening, is not, like

1018
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: watch an Oklahoma State regional in the past. Arktisas on

1019
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 2: Missouri State played there a couple of years ago, and

1020
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 2: I believe everybody scored twenty runs like every game had

1021
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: had forty runs. This is gonna be a lot of

1022
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 2: fun to watch. Just take a lot of overs and

1023
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:44,839
Speaker 2: let's bet game to game and keep your eyes open

1024
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 2: in the app.

1025
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:49,720
Speaker 3: All right, we'll stay in the SEC. With the Georgia

1026
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 3: Bulldogs being a major beneficiary of a top eight seed,

1027
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 3: they're the seven here in the regional rounds. They're taking

1028
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 3: on the Army, taking on Army, I should say, as

1029
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 3: the four and the one to four matchup. Then two

1030
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,800
Speaker 3: three on Friday as well, Georgia Tech against UNC Wilmington.

1031
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 3: And we look at the pricing for the regional UGA

1032
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five, Georgia Tech plus two fifty UNC

1033
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:12,359
Speaker 3: Wilmington at just about four to one, and Army as

1034
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 3: the long shot at twenty five to one. As I mentioned,

1035
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 3: no team was you know, basically exhaling harder than the Bulldogs.

1036
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 3: They wanted a chance to be able to stay on

1037
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 3: their home field all the way through Super Regionals, and

1038
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,320
Speaker 3: now they can do it at fully Field. And it's

1039
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 3: a serious advantage for them because you just look at

1040
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 3: their home record. They're twenty nine to five at home.

1041
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 3: That's incredible and they're the only team you know that

1042
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 3: in my estimation, when you look at who they're going

1043
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 3: to pair up with here, is there any team that

1044
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 3: can hit with the Bulldogs. Georgia Tech can, but the

1045
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 3: Yellow Jackets are outside of the top two hundred in

1046
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 3: staff era. That is so ideal for the Bulldogs in

1047
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 3: this spot. They walk far too many batters. So when

1048
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 3: I look at you know, the lineup and the way

1049
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 3: they bomb the ball out of fully Field, I think

1050
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 3: Georgia is a really safe bet here at minus one

1051
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 3: twenty five, I'd probably play it up to minus one

1052
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 3: seventy five. I will say, I'll give the flowers to

1053
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:08,240
Speaker 3: you and see Wilmington as the three seed in this pod.

1054
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 3: They have nice wins over Wake, They beat North Carolina

1055
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 3: State twice, they beat Coastal, They be you know, College

1056
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 3: of Charleston, who everybody was crying their eyes out for them.

1057
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 3: They probably should have been in the field and they

1058
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 3: do then back to back games entering this tournament. So

1059
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 3: when I look at them offensively, I worry about them

1060
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 3: potentially keeping pace in a head to head matchup with Georgia.

1061
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 3: But if it's you know, the Bulldogs and the Seahawks,

1062
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 3: is the last two, wouldn't be shocked. But yet I

1063
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 3: think the offense will be there on doing one hundred

1064
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 3: and thirty third and on base percentage on hundred and

1065
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:42,399
Speaker 3: seventeenth and slugging. They are far outside of UGA's weight

1066
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 3: class in that regard minus won twenty five. Explain this

1067
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 3: to me because there have been long stretches in this

1068
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 3: season where I thought to myself, is Georgia the best

1069
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 3: team in America?

1070
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? I kind of think they are too. I mean,

1071
00:48:56,880 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 2: let's give the props to you and see Wilmington, good job,

1072
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 2: good season. Let's let's give some props to Georgia tech

1073
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:08,319
Speaker 2: great hitting, horrible pitching. Your seasons are over. Football teams

1074
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 2: don't come into San Pra Stadium and push Georgia around,

1075
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:13,479
Speaker 2: and baseball teams don't come in to Athens and out

1076
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 2: hit the Georgia Bulldogs. So the correct price in this

1077
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: because Georgia projects minus one sixty to minus two to eighty,

1078
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 2: whether it's Colton Smith or anybody else on their staff

1079
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 2: against UNC Wilmington or Georgia Tech's pitchers. Man, I can't

1080
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 2: even talk about how bad Georgia Tech's pitchers are. The

1081
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: correct series price here is about sixty five percent. The

1082
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 2: Georgia is gonna take this. That correlates to minus one ninety.

1083
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 2: Go out there, grab your Georgia regionals. I you know,

1084
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 2: Calbary says minus one twenty five. I'm staring at two

1085
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 2: books that got minus one fifty. I think this is

1086
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 2: one that is going to take off. But who is

1087
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 2: out hitting them? And at Georgia Tech, let's say there's

1088
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 2: some sort of fourteen thirteen game that they're involved in

1089
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 2: with Georgia Tech. They don't have the bullpen to ever

1090
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 2: stop Georgia here whatsoever. So maybe they get a you know,

1091
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 2: maybe the Bulldogs get a game stolen from them. But

1092
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 2: you're gonna have to do that twice. That's another thing too.

1093
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 2: Bullpen management is monster this weekend. Sometimes you'll see plays

1094
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 2: come in on the app and I will mention the

1095
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,239
Speaker 2: closers already up to one hundred and thirty pitches this

1096
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:14,399
Speaker 2: weekend he is not available whatsoever, So keep your eyes

1097
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 2: on this one. Also live betting, I think this is

1098
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 2: a place where you want to live bet. You see

1099
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 2: a game in the second or third inning that involves

1100
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech or Georgia and the score is like two

1101
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 2: to zero, fire on the over. Live I mean Georgia Tech.

1102
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:30,400
Speaker 2: The Yellowjackets bullpen is so bad. They hit very well,

1103
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: so does Georgia. So that's a little bit of advice.

1104
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, Georgia all the way here, get all the

1105
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 2: money you can. I think minus one ninety is the

1106
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 2: stopping point for where their value is.

1107
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 3: So the question is who should be booking their super

1108
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,919
Speaker 3: regional stay at hotels in the Athens area. We look

1109
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 3: at the Raleigh Regional. NC State hosting. They're taking on

1110
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 3: Brian in the one to four matchup. The two versus

1111
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 3: the three is South Carolina against James Madison. The game

1112
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 3: Cocks are the favorite to win this one at just

1113
00:50:56,880 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 3: about even money. NC State at plus one twenty fives

1114
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 3: Madison six to one, and then Brian as the long

1115
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 3: shot at twenty to one. Talk to me a bit

1116
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 3: about the Dukes. I know we've mentioned the sun Belt

1117
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 3: up and down in this podcast and the leading you know,

1118
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:14,399
Speaker 3: the podcast leading up to this event, and you said

1119
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,280
Speaker 3: that you were going to pull the trigger at least

1120
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 3: in some spots on some Sun Belt teams. Coastal Carolina

1121
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 3: was not one of them. As the Duke spiced, you know,

1122
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 3: you done enough to basically entice you for a spot

1123
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 3: play on them here.

1124
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:30,399
Speaker 2: Oh, I desperately desperately wanted Troy to make it into

1125
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 2: the postseason. I'm sure some Southern mismoney is going to

1126
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 2: come flying out there. I will not be betting on

1127
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 2: James Madison. They posted a nine to fifteen record on

1128
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 2: the road this season. Their very first road win was

1129
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 2: at Arkansas. I think that was probably the coldest day

1130
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 2: ever here in the state. I think it was like

1131
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: forty degrees. But James Madison did get a win there,

1132
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 2: and they covered the run line. I think James Madison

1133
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 2: is going to be great at covering run lines. I

1134
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,400
Speaker 2: don't think they're going to get any wins here. They

1135
00:51:56,440 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 2: were on the bubble forever. I don't know how they

1136
00:51:57,960 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 2: made it in. I still can't figure it out how

1137
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 2: Call to Charleston got kicked out and James Madison and

1138
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 2: Coastal are in. I think Troy's better than James Madison

1139
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 2: and Coastal, But I digress. So James Madison to me,

1140
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 2: they just you know, their road record has been so poor.

1141
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 2: I'm not sure they're going to be able to hang here.

1142
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: When you look at the other two teams, South Carolina

1143
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 2: is the play I saw enough hunger and fire and

1144
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 2: pissed off game Cocks and the SEC tournament run that

1145
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 2: they had where you know, this is a team they

1146
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:33,440
Speaker 2: lost by one to Tennessee and Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament. Well,

1147
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 2: we're thinking Tennessee can win the national title. We're thinking

1148
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt can make a run to Omaha easily. Well, why

1149
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 2: is in South Carolina in that conversation? They are when

1150
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 2: you go to the pitching matchups and you want to

1151
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 2: get down to the numbers. Doesn't matter if it's Eli Jones,

1152
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,840
Speaker 2: Roman Kimball, or Dylan Escu, all of those Gamecock pitchers

1153
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 2: should be minus one thirty five or higher. And a

1154
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 2: head to head matchup against Sam Hithel, who is the

1155
00:52:56,120 --> 00:53:00,359
Speaker 2: ace stud Day one starter for NC State, it gets

1156
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 2: worse for NCI State after that with the other pitchers.

1157
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 2: So with South Carolina having so many advantages in the

1158
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 2: pitching department. The real series price here is fifty eight percent.

1159
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,320
Speaker 2: That correlates to minus one forty. I'll take South Carolina

1160
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 2: and minus one ten in the market, and if there's

1161
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:17,439
Speaker 2: a steam behind this, it's justified I would stop buying

1162
00:53:17,480 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 2: it at minus one forty.

1163
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 3: In the Tallahassee region, we have Florida State hosting Stetson

1164
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 3: Alabama against UCF in the two to three matchups, so

1165
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 3: nearly an all Sunshine State affair. FSU minus one ten,

1166
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 3: Bama at close to two to one, UCF at eleven

1167
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:36,359
Speaker 3: to two, and Stetson at fourteen to one. I think

1168
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 3: obviously the right team is favored here. I think Florida State,

1169
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 3: on their home diamond, is probably going to take this one.

1170
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:43,759
Speaker 3: But I think there's some interesting opportunities to play a

1171
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:46,760
Speaker 3: UCF team that ground out some wins down the stretch.

1172
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 3: Can they throw a scare into Florida State if they

1173
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 3: get by Alabama on Friday. That's the question. Because the

1174
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 3: Knights were a very strong road team all year long,

1175
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 3: twenty second in the RA tenth and whip top forty

1176
00:53:57,000 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 3: and fielding percentage, and since April thirtieth seven and two

1177
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 3: on the road or neutral fields, including a win over

1178
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:05,439
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State. I think I'm gonna play them against Bama

1179
00:54:05,520 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 3: to get started, and then after that maybe some run

1180
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:10,320
Speaker 3: line action against Florida State. It gets a little too generous.

1181
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on my take on the Knights.

1182
00:54:12,719 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Alabama with Greg Faron in Game one

1183
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 2: against UCFS have been ben Vespi. Alabama should only be

1184
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 2: minus one twenty favorites. I think UCF can get an

1185
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 2: upset against the Crimson Tide and that leads into what

1186
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 2: I think is a pretty short Florida State price for

1187
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 2: the regional. Now, I don't like UCF overall in this

1188
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 2: regional because they average six point two runs per game.

1189
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 2: That's just I mean, and then you might have to pitch.

1190
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:37,879
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, you might have to hit against Jamie Arnold

1191
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 2: of Florida State. It's just not going to work. So

1192
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 2: you know, there's other things with UCF. They lost series

1193
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 2: to Texas and Cincinnati right before the conference tournament, and

1194
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:51,440
Speaker 2: like I said, they're just not scoring any runs. Now,

1195
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:54,279
Speaker 2: when you look at Alabama, when you take all of

1196
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:56,839
Speaker 2: their pitchers and let's stop put them up against Jamie Arnold,

1197
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,359
Speaker 2: because what Jamie Arnold is for Florida State is an

1198
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 2: Omaha pitch. He is a guy you can put him

1199
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 2: on his back. Florida State can ride all the way

1200
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 2: to the Championship Series on Jamie Arnold, but they have

1201
00:55:05,680 --> 00:55:08,759
Speaker 2: to have a second pitcher, and that's Carson Dorsey. When

1202
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:10,880
Speaker 2: you pull up Carson Dorsey's numbers and you put him

1203
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:16,359
Speaker 2: against everybody on Alabama's staff, whether it's Greg faron Z, Chris,

1204
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 2: there's some other ones, Ben Hess, Carson Dorsey is at

1205
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 2: least a minus one sixty favorite for the former Florida

1206
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:26,720
Speaker 2: State serious price should be sixty four percent. That correlates

1207
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:28,799
Speaker 2: to minus one ninety. I think this number of the

1208
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 2: market is way short. This is a seminals team all

1209
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 2: the way. Now, let me say this before we hop

1210
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:36,399
Speaker 2: into the next region. If you have money on Duke

1211
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:40,839
Speaker 2: and O you, which I do a lot, you need

1212
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 2: to go find the Florida State twenty to one out

1213
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 2: there because I don't think this is going to be

1214
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 2: a challenge for them at home, and I think that

1215
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 2: they are a serious I mean they beat Duke. I

1216
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:55,160
Speaker 2: believe during the regular season series, Florida State can present

1217
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 2: a lot of problems for the teams that we've had

1218
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 2: love for on this podcast. So I'm saying there is

1219
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:04,280
Speaker 2: probably a route for Florida State to get to Omaha

1220
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 2: find the best price, whether you want to say to

1221
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 2: get to Omaha or to win the whole thing, which

1222
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 2: I saw twenty to one out there today. Florida State's

1223
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 2: going to cause some problems here for the next region

1224
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:15,439
Speaker 2: that you and I are going to talk about.

1225
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:19,840
Speaker 3: Speaking of that next region in Norman, the Sooners hosting

1226
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 3: at home as the one taking on Oral Roberts on Friday,

1227
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:26,839
Speaker 3: and Duke and Yukon in the two three matchup. Duke

1228
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 3: actually the favorite here to even money Oklahoma plus one

1229
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 3: forty five to win the regional, Yukon at seven to

1230
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 3: one in Oral Roberts at fifteen to one. I've held

1231
00:56:35,680 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 3: it in for this entire podcast. It's time for me

1232
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 3: to fan boy a bit. Give me Santucci all day long.

1233
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 3: The Blue Devils are getting their mojo back. They're going

1234
00:56:44,520 --> 00:56:47,880
Speaker 3: to win this regional. And Santucci, I mean, all he

1235
00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 3: needed to see was the articles that he had recovered

1236
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 3: from his non throwing side rib injury, which is a

1237
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 3: critical a fine point there from a medical perspective. He

1238
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,320
Speaker 3: was also thrown in the bullpen during the a SEC Tournament.

1239
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 3: So there's a little bit of this in Major League

1240
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 3: Baseball two where it's like, oh, I had a bullpen

1241
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:06,360
Speaker 3: session or he did X, Y and Z behind closed doors.

1242
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 3: The fact that we saw it in the a SEC Tournament,

1243
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:10,840
Speaker 3: I think he's ready to mow down hitters once again.

1244
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:13,280
Speaker 3: At mid season he was a second team All American.

1245
00:57:13,600 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 3: He can shut down a lackluster collection of lineups in Norman,

1246
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 3: that's what he has. And much like Arkansas, where it's like,

1247
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 3: can they put it all together to win in the

1248
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 3: super Regional and to you know, make some hay in

1249
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 3: Omaha to be determined, but at least here in this

1250
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 3: region Norman, Oklahoma, I think they got as good a

1251
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 3: you know, a grouping as they could as the two

1252
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 3: and I think they're going to take advantage of it.

1253
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 3: And sportsbooks see it the same way, listing them as

1254
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 3: the favorite at even money. So the fact is Santucci's

1255
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 3: going to be a massive favorite in the first game

1256
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:44,520
Speaker 3: that he pitches, and I think Duke is going to

1257
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 3: play with their hair on fire. After you know, we

1258
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 3: mentioned it, they let the acc slip away so significantly

1259
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 3: that you and c coasted through the finish line. I

1260
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:55,960
Speaker 3: think that's stung. I think it's personal. I think you're

1261
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 3: going to see a really focused and motivated Duke team

1262
00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 3: here in Oklahoma.

1263
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 2: Duke was pissed in the ACC tournament. I think they're

1264
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 2: coming to Norman equally is pissed because they're not hosting

1265
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 2: any games. I mean, there is a lot of fuel

1266
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 2: in the tank here for the Blue Devils to come

1267
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 2: in and play a little hot, which I think they're

1268
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 2: gonna do now. Jonathan Santucci should get Garrett Co of

1269
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 2: Yukon in game one. It should be about minus three

1270
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 2: seventy to start off, So look for that opening number

1271
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 2: on Duke because Jonathan Santucci is a play on pitcher.

1272
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 2: He has been all season. But when you get past

1273
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 2: him and you want to see what Duke can do

1274
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 2: against Oklahoma because obvious, I mean, I love the Sooners.

1275
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 2: I have a bet out there nine to one for

1276
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 2: them to make Omaha. I think that's in trouble. It's

1277
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:41,440
Speaker 2: in huge jeopardy, which is why I went and sprinkled

1278
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 2: a lot of Duke money out there today. When you

1279
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 2: look at all of the pitchers past Santucci, Ryan Higgins,

1280
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 2: Andrew Healy, Kyle Johnson. They're all minus one thirty to

1281
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 2: minus one seventy over every Sooner's pitcher. So that is,

1282
00:58:56,680 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 2: you know, Braden Davis, it doesn't matter who you come

1283
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 2: up with for ou Duke has a monster pitching advantage.

1284
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 2: That's just the starting pitchers. I would contend that this

1285
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 2: is probably the best bullpen in Division one baseball everyone.

1286
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 2: And I'm not just talking the closer, right, I'm not

1287
00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:14,720
Speaker 2: just talking Charlie Beelinson, who can come in at any

1288
00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 2: time and shut you down. I'm not talking. I'm talking

1289
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:20,440
Speaker 2: about the guy that's fifth, sixth, seventh string in the bullpen,

1290
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 2: like they are better than anybody else's fit six to

1291
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 2: seventh string in a bullpen. So Duke's got enough pitching.

1292
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 2: We saw this past week in the AC Tournament. They

1293
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 2: definitely have enough hitting. The real regional price should be

1294
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 2: fifty seven percent correlates to minus one thirty minus one

1295
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 2: thirty five. It's a little bit shocked to see Duke

1296
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 2: ahead of Oklahoma when these numbers came out, but it's

1297
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 2: all justified in the math with these starting pitchers. So

1298
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 2: I would say Blue Devils is the play you're gonna

1299
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 2: stop buying at minus one thirty, and I don't think

1300
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 2: they're going to lose a game, calibrees. I don't think

1301
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:55,920
Speaker 2: oh is going to be able to snag one. So

1302
00:59:56,120 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 2: I wouldn't sit around and try to be cute and

1303
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,680
Speaker 2: say I'll just wait till game two. I I think, Duke,

1304
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 2: I'm trying not to have recency bias, right, because once,

1305
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 2: what do they did in the a SEC tournament? They

1306
01:00:08,680 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 2: were just looked like a bunch of ermators out there

1307
01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:12,960
Speaker 2: on the field, just taking care of business. The last

1308
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 2: thing I'll say about this region, yes, Oral Roberts is

1309
01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 2: in it. Yes, if you follow along the Action Network,

1310
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 2: we were all over ll Roberts last year. They made

1311
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 2: us a lot of money. In that run to Omaha.

1312
01:00:23,480 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 2: There will be zero dollars, zero cents played on Oral

1313
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 2: Roberts who won the summit. It's amazing to me that

1314
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 2: this team is two hundred and eighty ninth in RPI

1315
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 2: when there's only three hundred and four teams. Pretty impressive

1316
01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 2: that the praying hands of Oral Roberts is in the postseason.

1317
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 2: But no, we won't be playing them at all, Duke,

1318
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:43,920
Speaker 2: all the way here.

1319
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 3: Or minor to our audience that if you want to

1320
01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 3: go even deeper into the mind of Colin Wilson when

1321
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 3: it comes to college baseball. Seven thousand words await you

1322
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 3: in the Action Network app a deep dive into every

1323
01:00:56,240 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 3: single regional, the pitching matchups, the park factors, the momentum,

1324
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 3: you know, the health to be taken into account for

1325
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 3: these pitching staffs, who's getting healthy, who's playing better at

1326
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 3: the right time, because there is some bias with who's

1327
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 3: ranks higher, who has the higher seed, or who's playing

1328
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 3: on their home diamonds. But what's interesting about college baseball

1329
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:18,000
Speaker 3: is this is when some really wacky stuff can happen.

1330
01:01:18,040 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 3: We saw it last year with seven of the sixteen

1331
01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 3: teams hosting on their home field losing in the regionals.

1332
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:26,440
Speaker 3: So I'm hoping that we see a little bit more

1333
01:01:26,520 --> 01:01:28,520
Speaker 3: chaos as well, and we're gonna be here to walk

1334
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 3: you through the chaos because next week we're going to

1335
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 3: be teeing up the super Regionals, giving you the full breakdown,

1336
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 3: talking about futures as well to consider at this point

1337
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 3: in the season. I hope that we've helped stock your portfolio.

1338
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:43,120
Speaker 3: I know that I'm entering with about five in hands. Colin.

1339
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 3: I'm sure that you have a double triple that number.

1340
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 3: But there's lots of different ways to protect yourself, so

1341
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 3: it's important to think beyond just those single game plays

1342
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:53,360
Speaker 3: or to win the College World Series, because a lot

1343
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 3: has to go right and your path can be just

1344
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 3: as important as your team itself. So for Colin Wilson

1345
01:01:58,280 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 3: on My Calaberys, this has been the Big Bets on

1346
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 3: Campus podcast presented by bet MGM or minor to our audience,

1347
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 3: please drop us a five star review comment on YouTube

1348
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:11,280
Speaker 3: as well wherever you get your podcasts over on TikTok,

1349
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:14,440
Speaker 3: and we're still giving out more swag, more merchandise. I

1350
01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 3: just gave out a ten dollars future on Dallas Baptist

1351
01:02:17,720 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 3: at sixty six to one to win the national title.

1352
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 3: All it took was a five star review. We don't

1353
01:02:22,000 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 3: even care what you say. Just go in there, get

1354
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 3: a five star review, Borrow it from a friend, your girlfriend,

1355
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:29,400
Speaker 3: your mother, whoever. We're trying to get closer to one

1356
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:33,600
Speaker 3: thousand reviews on our Apple feed as well, which would

1357
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:36,000
Speaker 3: be really great in terms of our reach and our exposure.

1358
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 3: We couldn't do it without you guys listening, so we

1359
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 3: really really appreciate it all right, Thanks so much. Enjoy

1360
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:44,120
Speaker 3: the action starting Friday night.

1361
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1362
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1363
01:02:58,120 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler