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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go throwing, so.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash stop.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right. This is the ultimate kabary. You want to

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Speaker 4: pass it?

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Speaker 3: And we are What's up, everybody, and welcome to the

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Speaker 3: Action Network Podcast. This is one of our most popular

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Speaker 3: podcast episodes of the year, the Action Network's fourth annual

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl Propapalooza. I am your host, Chris Raybon, and

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Speaker 3: I am joined by my guy, Sean Kerner. And for

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Speaker 3: anyone that doesn't know Sean, he's the co host with

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Speaker 3: me over at the Fantasy Flex podcast. He's Action Networks

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Speaker 3: direct of Predictive Analytics and he's been Fantasy pros number

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Speaker 3: one ranked NFL expert three times, one of the sharpest

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Speaker 3: NFL player projectionists in the industry. So Sean, glad for

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Speaker 3: you to join me on here on this other channel.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, And you know the Propablusa episode is always my favorite.

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Speaker 5: I mean, we have two weeks to analyze one game,

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Speaker 5: and this is the only game all season where we

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Speaker 5: get punter props.

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Speaker 4: So, you know, just my favorite time y ever can't

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Speaker 4: wait to dive in on us.

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Speaker 3: So for everyone out there listening, we will do our

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Speaker 3: normal six pack with our favorite props, and then we're

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Speaker 3: going to do a massive best of the rest where

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Speaker 3: we just talk about all different kinds of props. We

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Speaker 3: could talk about coin toss as, we can talk about

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Speaker 3: yardage props, attempts.

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Speaker 2: You know, special team. Sean mentioned the punters.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk national anthem, first half, second half, MVP, first touchdown,

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Speaker 3: all that good stuff on the Action Network Propapalooza. All right,

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Speaker 3: let's kick off the super Bowl Propapalooza Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Sean, where are you going with your first selection?

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Speaker 5: So for my first pick for the Super Bowl propa Palooza,

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Speaker 5: I am going with Cooper Cup longest reception over twenty

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Speaker 5: eight and a half yards. And I was a bit

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Speaker 5: surprised I was able to find value on a Cooper

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Speaker 5: Cup over. You figure books are anticipating and getting most

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Speaker 5: of the handle on Cooper Cups overs. However, there is

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Speaker 5: you know, quite a bit of value on this prop,

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Speaker 5: specifically to the over. And you know, I simulate the

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Speaker 5: Super Bowl ten thousand times, and I pull my projections

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Speaker 5: from that and heading into this, I'm actually projecting Cooper

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Speaker 5: Cup a little bit less than the market in terms

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Speaker 5: of receptions. So I'm projecting him for eight point zero

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Speaker 5: receptions where the market looks like it's around eight point

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Speaker 5: three eight point fours. So I just want to be

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Speaker 5: out front, like I'm projecting him a little bit lower,

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Speaker 5: and I'm still getting his medium. I'm closer to thirty

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Speaker 5: three and a half here, which is a pretty big

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Speaker 5: edge in a market like this. So I'm projecting this

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Speaker 5: to hit, you know, around sixty three percent of the

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Speaker 5: time at this number. And when it comes to Cooper

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Speaker 5: Cup specifically, you don't really think of him as a

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Speaker 5: deep threat necessarily. His A dots lower around the eight

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Speaker 5: point four range, but he's phenomenal after catch six point

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Speaker 5: four yards after the catch on average, so he can

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Speaker 5: rack up the yards after the catch.

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Speaker 4: Plus he's going to see a.

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Speaker 5: Ton of volumes, so he'll likely have around eight chances

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Speaker 5: to clear this number. So that's why there's a ton

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Speaker 5: of value on this over and on the season, in

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Speaker 5: twenty games, he's cleared this in fifteen of them, so

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Speaker 5: that's a seventy five percent hit rate, and you know

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Speaker 5: his median's thirty six on the air. So my math

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Speaker 5: for checks out here. Love the value we're getting here,

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Speaker 5: and I probably bet this up to thirty and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's great value.

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Speaker 3: I can't believe he's hit that in fifteen out of

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Speaker 3: twenty and they're posting it so low. I mean, this

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Speaker 3: guy is just he's going to be open like every play.

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Speaker 3: There's nothing Cincinnati's really gonna be able to do out of,

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Speaker 3: you know, even dropping eight in the coverage, which is

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Speaker 3: what they did against Kansas City Stafford. If he's gonna

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Speaker 3: still let it rip down the field, the cup and

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Speaker 3: if there were eight men in coverage, the most likely

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Speaker 3: person to get open down the field would still be

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Speaker 3: Cooper Cup. So I do like that one for my

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Speaker 3: first pick and the second overall of the Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: Propapabooza six pack. I am going with the winner of

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Speaker 3: the coin toss to defer to the second half at

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Speaker 3: minus five hundred. I don't know what your Cooper Cup

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Speaker 3: edge was, but this is a crazy edge because the

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Speaker 3: odds imply about an eighty three percent chance of the

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Speaker 3: winner of the coin toss deferring well, I went back

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Speaker 3: and looked at Cincinnati and the Rams. Cincinnati won the

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Speaker 3: toss eleven times, deferred all eleven. The Rams won ten times,

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Speaker 3: deferred all ten times, and their opponents all deferred every

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Speaker 3: time except once. The New York Jets took the opening

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Speaker 3: kick off against Cincinnati. So out of forty possible chances,

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Speaker 3: thirty nine ended with deferring. For these two teams, the

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Speaker 3: odds are probably only eighty three percent chance. I think

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Speaker 3: this is closer to a ninety nine point five at

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Speaker 3: least percent chance here. So I would hit this while

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Speaker 3: you can. And I know a lot of people listening

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Speaker 3: to the show. I know you're gonna you're gonna parlay.

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Speaker 3: I know that's what you're gonna do with these props.

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Speaker 2: So, uh, this is a.

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Speaker 3: Great parlay bet here, just kind of start you off here,

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Speaker 3: pretty much a short thing at minus five hundred, when

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Speaker 3: I think the odds should be to any juice. To

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Speaker 3: put it that way, you should bet this up to

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Speaker 3: any juice. So that is my favorite Super Bowl prop,

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Speaker 3: this spot. I can't believe they posted it at minus

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Speaker 3: five hundred.

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Speaker 4: I love these props. It doesn't matter what the juice is.

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Speaker 5: So this is essentially like would you bet that the

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Speaker 5: sun's gonna rise tomorrow at mines five hundred?

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Speaker 4: Of course you would.

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Speaker 5: So I'm convinced I don't mind laying down on you know,

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Speaker 5: props like us where at the a surefire hit.

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Speaker 4: So I think I'm a join you on this one.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, this is a max bet.

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Speaker 3: It's just like if you're if you're you plan to

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Speaker 3: put this in a parlay and that is going to

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Speaker 3: depend on which other bets are allowed and things like that.

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Speaker 3: But just make sure you don't use up for your

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Speaker 3: max bet if you're gonna do it that way. But

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Speaker 3: like either way, I mean it's worth you know, it's

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Speaker 3: where it's getting a couple of hours out of it,

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Speaker 3: you know why not?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, Like you said, kind of mix it in with

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Speaker 5: parlays good way to kind of like bump that up.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, like definitely use this deer advantage.

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Speaker 2: All right, We going with your second and the third

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Speaker 2: overall pick.

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Speaker 5: So for my second pick for the Super Bowl, prop

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Speaker 5: of Paloza sixth pack is a punter prop and it's

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Speaker 5: Kevin Huber. He's the punter for the Bengals. For his

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Speaker 5: longest punt to be over fifty two and a half yards.

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Speaker 5: So again I crunched numbers on this, I ran my simulations,

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Speaker 5: and I'm giving a meet in closer to fifty five

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Speaker 5: and a half on this. So again, this there's quite

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Speaker 5: a bit of value here. I have him clearing this

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Speaker 5: sixty two percent of the time, and looking at his

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Speaker 5: game log this season, the math checks out He's cleared

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Speaker 5: this number in thirteen of twenty games. That's a sixty

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Speaker 5: five percent hit rate. And yeah, his medium is closer

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Speaker 5: to fifty four and a half. And I think that

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Speaker 5: the fact that this game is being played in so

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Speaker 5: far we have sort of a domed environment. I don't

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Speaker 5: think there's any fishy, anything fishy going on here. So

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Speaker 5: I love taking Huber over fifty two and a half

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Speaker 5: for his longest punt for the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: This is exactly why we have you on the show.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie.

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Speaker 2: I didn't even make.

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Speaker 3: Any punter projections, or at least not yet. You might

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Speaker 3: have inspired me, but no, this is this is great

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Speaker 3: and I know you hit.

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Speaker 2: You hit like a punter prop every single super Bowl.

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Speaker 5: It's like all you talk about there's usually one that

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Speaker 5: like there's a pretty big edge.

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Speaker 4: Last year.

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Speaker 5: I even forgot the punter's name, the punter for the Buccaneers.

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Speaker 4: I think I had the.

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Speaker 3: Underpinion pinion, yeah, and he didn't.

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Speaker 5: Even come close. So these are fun. This one, how

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Speaker 5: I think this one is going to be pretty close.

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Speaker 5: I think he ends with like a fifty five or

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Speaker 5: fifty six card punt, So every yard in this market matters.

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Speaker 5: That's why I want to be clear. I'd probably bet

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Speaker 5: this up to fifty three and a half. I wouldn't

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Speaker 5: go past that, but anything in the fifty two to

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Speaker 5: fifty three and a half range there's too much value

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Speaker 5: on the over.

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Speaker 2: You know what else is interesting about this one? And

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Speaker 2: you know, I know this.

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Speaker 3: Is a prop episode, so we won't go into our

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Speaker 3: high level discussion of the game stuck, and I will

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Speaker 3: be back to do that at the normal time, but

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Speaker 3: I will say this, the Bengals have lost by more

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Speaker 3: than three twice a year in Joe Burrow's starts, and

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Speaker 3: they're four to four and a half point under Dug.

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Speaker 3: So you may also get more punts than you usually would,

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Speaker 3: which obviously just means more opportunities for you.

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Speaker 4: Ber Gooit. Wait is that how you pronounced it? Uber?

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Speaker 3: How did you pronounce it, Huber, Huber, I mean one

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Speaker 3: of those three's got to be right. We'll find out

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Speaker 3: when he punts it for fifty five yards on his

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Speaker 3: first punt, then we'll find out how you actually pronounced it.

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Speaker 3: It reminds me of a man with the family guy

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Speaker 3: Stewie thing the while when he's like, what but the

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Speaker 3: but yeah, I don't know, Huber whatever. Over fifty two

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Speaker 3: and a half is the important information to take.

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Speaker 2: Out of that.

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Speaker 3: For my second pick in the fourth overall of the

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl Propapaluza six pack, I am going with samaj

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Speaker 3: p Rn under fifteen and a half rushing and receiving yards.

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Speaker 3: And I love this because you get to take advantage

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Speaker 3: of recency bias here. So pe Ran so p Ran

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Speaker 3: not only scored the Bengals first touchdown in the AFC

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Speaker 3: Championship game and gave them a pretty big joke, but

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Speaker 3: he caught up. It was a forty one yard screen

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Speaker 3: pass that looked like it was going to go for

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Speaker 3: a few yards but not many, and then he just

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Speaker 3: broke it loose. And now we're getting fifteen and a half,

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Speaker 3: where the last five games he was under that number

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Speaker 3: in all five his snap rate has actually been ticking down,

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Speaker 3: so I have was mian projected at thirteen total yards,

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Speaker 3: which means his.

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Speaker 2: Median is going to be a little low. But let's

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Speaker 2: do the math on this.

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Speaker 3: Piran averages about four yards per carry for his career

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Speaker 3: and seven yards per cat right, so that means no

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Speaker 3: matter how you slice it, he's gonna need three touches

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Speaker 3: to get over this, whether it's you know, two catches

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Speaker 3: and a carry, two carries and a catch, whatever. You know,

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Speaker 3: if he gets just three carries, then he would still

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Speaker 3: be short. So he needs at least three, maybe even

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Speaker 3: four to go over this. Well, he's had two or

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Speaker 3: less touch opportunities, so that includes incomplete targets in two

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Speaker 3: of the three postseason games. The only game where he

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Speaker 3: had you know, three or more touches was that last

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00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,240
Speaker 3: game against the Chiefs. He's only had more than one

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Speaker 3: touch once in that last game against the Chiefs in

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Speaker 3: the postseason, and yes he got the touchdown, but he

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Speaker 3: also ran a bad route in that game as well,

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Speaker 3: where they would have had a good play set up

225
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Speaker 3: and he ran like the wrong way and Burrow kind

226
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Speaker 3: of like chewed him out. So this is the super

227
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Speaker 3: I think you see Joe Mixon on the field as

228
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Speaker 3: much as possible, and Chris Evans has actually had just

229
00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:10,160
Speaker 3: as many carries as p Ryan in the postseason, and

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Speaker 3: Evans has been explosive on kickoff returns. So it's no

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Speaker 3: guarantee that pe Ryan gets even one carry. And after

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Speaker 3: last week, I know he got the touchdown, but that's

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Speaker 3: like a very design play. I think they kind of

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Speaker 3: used up to design p Rynd long Green passes in

235
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Speaker 3: the AFC Championship game. So I'm going to bet under

236
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Speaker 3: fifteen and a half for p Ryan here, which is

237
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Speaker 3: essentially I'm betting he gets under three touches.

238
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Speaker 5: Yeah, I like this one a lot, and you know

239
00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,720
Speaker 5: there's a chance he just doesn't see a rush attempt.

240
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,280
Speaker 5: The past two games he has zero rush attempts. Chris

241
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Speaker 5: Evans actually has one more carry than him in the

242
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Speaker 5: playoffs with two, So this is essentially his receiving yard

243
00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,120
Speaker 5: prop and the market for him is right right around

244
00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 5: one and a half catches, which is in line with

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Speaker 5: my projection. So I mean, I have the median for

246
00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,439
Speaker 5: this closter to like eight and a half, And when

247
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Speaker 5: you're dealing with the yardage, is this low, you know,

248
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Speaker 5: getting seven yards of value is massive, and he hasn't

249
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Speaker 5: cleared fifteen and a half totally yards since week fifteen,

250
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Speaker 5: so it's hard to them. Yeah yeah, oh yeah, aside

251
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Speaker 5: from last week, so it's really hard to Yeah, exactly,

252
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Speaker 5: recency bias.

253
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Speaker 4: You got that one long touchdown.

254
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Speaker 5: It's really hard to see them sort of game planning

255
00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,480
Speaker 5: to get samaj Puran touches. So yeah, I'm with you

256
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Speaker 5: on this one. This one has to be over a

257
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Speaker 5: sixty percent chance of hitting on the under right, we're

258
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Speaker 5: going with your third pick. So for my third pick

259
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Speaker 5: for the Super Bowl Prop blues a six pack, I

260
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,319
Speaker 5: am going with the Rams calling the first time out

261
00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,880
Speaker 5: in this game. And you know, typically I ignore these props.

262
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,280
Speaker 5: I don't think I've ever bet on the coin toss.

263
00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 5: I never bet on you know, which coach will throw

264
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 5: the first challenge flag, which coach will call the first

265
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Speaker 5: time out. But I think there is some sneaky edge

266
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Speaker 5: on the Rams calling the first time out here because

267
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Speaker 5: if you look at some research Michael Lopez did, he

268
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,520
Speaker 5: didn't end up peace on how coaches use their timeouts,

269
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Speaker 5: and Sean McVay by far led all coaches with two

270
00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:12,080
Speaker 5: point nine unnecessary timeouts per game, which is a crazy stat.

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Speaker 5: And if you watch RAMS games, like you can see

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Speaker 5: it in action, like he does call a ton of

273
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Speaker 5: timeouts where he does like the formation or you know,

274
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Speaker 5: he loses a challenge. There's all these different reasons why

275
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 5: Sean McVay just blows through timeouts. So you know, usually

276
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:28,720
Speaker 5: the first time out in the game, you know, will

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Speaker 5: in theory, be an unnecessary timeout.

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Speaker 4: So I wanted to just test it out.

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Speaker 5: So I was gonna look at the past couple of games,

280
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Speaker 5: like we're the Rams the first team to call timeout.

281
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Speaker 5: Then nine, like each of the past nine games, the

282
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Speaker 5: Rams have called the first timeout. So that was enough

283
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,240
Speaker 5: proof for me to like just go along with this

284
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Speaker 5: theory that Tom McVay just blows through timeouts. So in

285
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,560
Speaker 5: a market like this where typically I'm just ignore it,

286
00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:56,280
Speaker 5: I think there's too big of an edge here to

287
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Speaker 5: just ignore and passed up. So I'm locking in the

288
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Speaker 5: Rams to call the first time out. At minus one fifteen,

289
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,440
Speaker 5: I would probably set this at like minus one's fifty,

290
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,920
Speaker 5: So you know, I'm I'd be willing to bet this

291
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,600
Speaker 5: up to like minus one thirty. That's how confident I am.

292
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,320
Speaker 5: But I never thought in a million years, i'd be

293
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,040
Speaker 5: recommending a punter prop and a first time out prop

294
00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:17,960
Speaker 5: on a Super Bowl problem POLSA.

295
00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,720
Speaker 3: Really, I think you were like minus two thousand to

296
00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 3: recommend a punter prop. But the timeout that's a little more.

297
00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 3: Those are usually one of those things that you know,

298
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,480
Speaker 3: on a normal type of game, we'd be like, you know,

299
00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:30,240
Speaker 3: stay away from this.

300
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:31,440
Speaker 2: The odds are probably even.

301
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,080
Speaker 3: But I agree with Sean McVay. And the funny thing

302
00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,880
Speaker 3: is he's not even a guy who a coach who

303
00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,840
Speaker 3: has an inordinate amount of challenges, So like like Taylor

304
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,480
Speaker 3: actually has more challenges than McVeigh over the last three years,

305
00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 3: so you know, and I think like six more.

306
00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:47,760
Speaker 2: So this is like a substantial amount.

307
00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,480
Speaker 3: So like if McVeigh would challenged more, he'd probably burned

308
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 3: even more time out.

309
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,760
Speaker 2: He probably lose a good amount.

310
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,000
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's pretty amazing the last nine games, So

311
00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 3: that that is an amazing stat.

312
00:14:58,760 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 4: All right.

313
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:03,600
Speaker 3: For my my third and final and the sixth overall

314
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:09,040
Speaker 3: pick of the Super Bowl Propapalooza six pack, I'm going

315
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,280
Speaker 3: with Matt Gay over one and a half field goals.

316
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,560
Speaker 3: And now we have a punter prop, a timeout prop,

317
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,080
Speaker 3: why not get a kicker prop in here. So the Bengals,

318
00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:20,480
Speaker 3: you look at them, They're not a team that gives

319
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,920
Speaker 3: up a ton of multi field goal games. It's happened

320
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 3: about forty percent of the time this year. But look

321
00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:31,920
Speaker 3: at Matt Gay, and he's gotten at least two field

322
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 3: goals in fifteen of twenty games. So even if you

323
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,280
Speaker 3: take those two seventy five percent for Gay, forty percent

324
00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:44,240
Speaker 3: for the Bengals, and you average that together, that's about

325
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 3: fifty seven and a half percent, which is about the

326
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 3: true odds are about minus one thirty five. And you're

327
00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:55,800
Speaker 3: getting this, uh in the you're so I'm showing about,

328
00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 3: you know, about ten points of juice value here on

329
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,560
Speaker 3: Gay here to go over multiple field goals. And I

330
00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 3: think also when you kind of do these projections, you

331
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 3: would look at the kicker more than the defense. So

332
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,200
Speaker 3: the true odds are probably over sixty percent when you

333
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,240
Speaker 3: really calculate it. So, yeah, probably closer to one fifty.

334
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,600
Speaker 3: And you can get this four, So you can get

335
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 3: this for minus one twenty five, and I would put

336
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,120
Speaker 3: the true odds closer to minus one fifty, about a

337
00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 3: sixty percent chance if not more. Again, he's done in

338
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 3: seventy five percent of his games and the Rams are favored,

339
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 3: you know, so that also gives them a more positive

340
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 3: game script where they'd be tacking onto their lead. So

341
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,560
Speaker 3: really like this prop kind of in that similar boat

342
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,680
Speaker 3: to Cup where it's like, you know, he's gotten over

343
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 3: this number in seventy five percent of the games and

344
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:46,600
Speaker 3: we're getting pretty good juice on it.

345
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:47,480
Speaker 4: Yeah.

346
00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 5: Absolutely, And you know, when it comes to these figal props,

347
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 5: I would like to take the over for like an

348
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 5: accurate kicker, and Mackay happens to be one of the

349
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 5: most accurate kickers in my model. I'm projecting around eighty

350
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 5: eight percent to go rate because if you look at his

351
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,040
Speaker 5: profile this year, you know, he's made ninety four percent

352
00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,640
Speaker 5: of field goals and that's with attempting five field goals

353
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,240
Speaker 5: of fifty yards of more so, he's an extremely accurate kicker.

354
00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:12,640
Speaker 5: This game is going to be a home game for him,

355
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,520
Speaker 5: it's indoors essentially, so yeah, I think if he gets

356
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 5: through more fieldal attempts, he'll probably make both. So this

357
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 5: is a rare Again, this is a rare kicking proper.

358
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:23,920
Speaker 5: I'd probably take the over as well.

359
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and interesting that you mentioned it's indoors in LA.

360
00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 3: In LA this season, he's made multiple field goals in

361
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,840
Speaker 3: nine of ten games in LA, so not because it's

362
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 3: home field advantage, but it is indoors. Four of his

363
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 3: five games where he's made only one or no field

364
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 3: goals have come on the road, and three of those

365
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:51,160
Speaker 3: four outdoors, So indoors, Matt Gay is money.

366
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 2: To make two or more field goals.

367
00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:53,680
Speaker 4: All right.

368
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 3: So that's going to wrap up our Super Bowl fifty

369
00:17:56,160 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 3: six propapalooza Sunday six pack. Sean is going with Cooper

370
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 3: Cup longest reception over twenty seven and a half yards,

371
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 3: Kevin Youber longest punt over fifty two and a half yards,

372
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:15,280
Speaker 3: and Rams first time out at minus one fifteen. I'm

373
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 3: going winner of the coin toss to defer at minus

374
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,400
Speaker 3: five hundred, samajp RN under fifteen and a half combined

375
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 3: rushing and receiving yards, and Matt Gay over one and

376
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 3: a half field goals. All right, Sean, Now now you

377
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 3: can really get into it. We're going to go all

378
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,439
Speaker 3: over the place here and try to touch on just

379
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 3: all of the props in what is usually called our

380
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 3: best of the rest segment. But there's no real rest,

381
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 3: cause every prop is equal as long as you can

382
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 3: profit off of it. So let's start out here with

383
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 3: the national anthem. Do you tend to have any type

384
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 3: of strategy when you're betting the national anthem, which is

385
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,200
Speaker 3: obviously the most important prop of the game.

386
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, My strategy is listening to you talk about it.

387
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,400
Speaker 5: This is definitely your especially all handle the punting props.

388
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 5: You're usually good handling the national anthem. So I'm looking

389
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,160
Speaker 5: forward to hearing your pick here.

390
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, so thank you, thank you. We got Mickey Geiten

391
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:22,119
Speaker 3: singing this thing. Not a ton of information on her specifically,

392
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 3: but some really good information on how to approach this

393
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 3: based on what's happened in the past. So the over

394
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,880
Speaker 3: under I'm seeing out there in the market right now

395
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,920
Speaker 3: is about ninety five seconds, which is about a minute

396
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 3: thirty five the last super Bowl, last fifteen super Bowl,

397
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 3: it's been about even eight overs, six unders, one push.

398
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 3: But the average length for the last fifteen super Bowls

399
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 3: is two minutes in one second or one hundred and

400
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 3: twenty one seconds, And the median is right there as well,

401
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 3: at a minute fifty nine seconds or one hundred nineteen

402
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,679
Speaker 3: So that means that This is about a two minute

403
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:08,400
Speaker 3: anthem on average at these Super Bowls, and right now

404
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 3: the totals only had a minute thirty five, So I

405
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:12,919
Speaker 3: think you have to go over here. Seven of the

406
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 3: last nine have been over two minutes, so I mean

407
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 3: this is really just a smash over for me. I

408
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if the market kind of bumps it

409
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 3: up now again.

410
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 2: You know, you know has Geien, How do we have

411
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: a lot.

412
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 3: Of information on her specifically, No, but most performers have

413
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 3: tended to kind of drag it out of lately. And

414
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 3: you know last year we saw it was two minutes

415
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: and seventeen seconds for Jasmine Sullivan and Eric Church.

416
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 2: Demi Evado came in at a minute forty nine.

417
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,680
Speaker 3: A couple of years ago, Gladys Knight was at two

418
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,880
Speaker 3: minutes one second, Pink was at one point fifty two.

419
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 3: So those are all over this number, and then the

420
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 3: three before that and the five before that all over

421
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 3: two minutes. Luke Bryant two four, Lady Got Got twenty two, a,

422
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 3: Dita Menzel two four, Rene Fleming two three, Alisha Keys

423
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 3: two thirty six. So this is one where I would

424
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 3: actually bet this up to you know, maybe one fifteen

425
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 3: or so. I think the number is going to go

426
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,400
Speaker 3: up as as we get closer and as people start

427
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 3: to talk about this and we start writing articles about it.

428
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 3: So this is when I would try to lock in

429
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: as soon as possible, because anything under two minutes you're

430
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 3: getting good value according to the according to the past data.

431
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 5: Now, is is this the opening number or has it?

432
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 5: Has it gone up since it opened?

433
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 2: You know that, I don't know.

434
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: This is my first time looking at it, okay, because I.

435
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 5: Feel like like typically the national anthem, I feel like

436
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 5: the steam moves are usually the right side, so if

437
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 5: it starts like getting up, it always seems like that's

438
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 5: that's the tide to be on.

439
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 4: No, I don't know if you have that kind of data.

440
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,679
Speaker 3: No, No, that I don't have, but I will say this,

441
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 3: I mean there's almost usually like for something like a prop,

442
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 3: there's almost never steam moves on the under regard. Let's

443
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 3: like like you know what I mean, Like it's like

444
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: people wouldn't be betting under.

445
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 2: For a prop like this, and I don't think the

446
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 2: sharps would.

447
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 3: Really be the quote unquote sharp you know what I mean,

448
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 3: We're really were touching it.

449
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 2: So the bottom line is it should be around two minutes.

450
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: Like that's the best, that's we can feel pretty confident.

451
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 3: It should be around two minutes. If you can get

452
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 3: anything under that, go for it. Only once you start

453
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 3: getting over two minutes should you start thinking about and

454
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 3: under if you're going to bet.

455
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 4: This, but you think there's like a twenty seconds.

456
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,719
Speaker 5: Edge here, yeah, yeah, wow, that's that's pretty big. All

457
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 5: I'll have to join you on this one as well.

458
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to something that actually does involve

459
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 3: the game here.

460
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 2: That's the MVP.

461
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 3: And this is always a fun one. As you're listening

462
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 3: to this, we'll probably have an article up where we

463
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 3: do our Super Bowl Ods draft every year at Action

464
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 3: and these things are actually, you know, valuable exercise. I

465
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: remember a couple of years ago I took Edelman in

466
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 3: our in one of our draft and I ended up

467
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 3: betting him and he won it. So these things are

468
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 3: kind of a great thought exercise to kind of think about.

469
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 2: Now, so let's talk through this a little bit.

470
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 3: I'll set you up with some numbers you can kind

471
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 3: of give you your thoughts on what you're thinking.

472
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 2: But just for some numbers.

473
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 3: Historically, quarterbacks have one fifty five percent of the times.

474
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 3: Running backs and receivers have won twelve and a half

475
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 3: percent of the time. Each defensive players have won eighteen

476
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 3: percent of the time. And Desmond Howard, who's he was

477
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,719
Speaker 3: a wide receiver but more like a kick returner, he

478
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 3: won one as well. But wide receivers have won twenty

479
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 3: four percent of the time over the last seventeen Super

480
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 3: Bowl so they've won four of the last seventeen, so

481
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 3: that those are kind of that's kind of the historical data.

482
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 3: With that being said, we have Matthew Stafford the favorite

483
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 3: at minus one fifteen, and then Joe Burrow comes in

484
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 3: next at plus two twenty five. What stands out to

485
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 3: you on the board for Super Bowl MVP show.

486
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think when looking at these numbers, you

487
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 5: kind of want to look at recent seasons. You know,

488
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,360
Speaker 5: you quote the last seventeen years, the receivers have won

489
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 5: it a bit more. I think that makes sense because

490
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 5: the NFL is becoming more past heavy in general. So

491
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 5: I don't think we've seen a running back win it

492
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 5: in the past twenty years or so, so I won't

493
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 5: be attacking any running backs. I think quarterbacks obviously. The

494
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 5: quarterback is you know, the most likely one to win.

495
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 5: But you know, the QBS have won seven of the

496
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 5: past ten Super Bowls. So if you take a look

497
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 5: at Joe Burrow, he's plus two twenty five. I thought

498
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 5: about taking him because I think that's a sneaky way

499
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 5: to sort of bet on the Bengals money line. Instead

500
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 5: of getting him at plus one sixty, you can get

501
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,719
Speaker 5: him plus two twenty five. But I just don't think

502
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 5: there's enough value there because you know, like I said,

503
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 5: the QB is only going to win it around seventy

504
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 5: percent of the time. So I think that the way

505
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 5: to kind of attack this is to look at the

506
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 5: wide receivers, and we have some legit wide receivers in

507
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 5: the Super Bowl this year. So the guy that I

508
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 5: think stands out the most to me is probably T

509
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 5: Higgins at fifty to one. You know, on the Fantasy

510
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 5: Flex all season long, I've been the biggest T Higgins

511
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 5: stand So you know, I can't help myself here.

512
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 4: But you know, if the.

513
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 5: Rams were to double team or sell out to try

514
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 5: to stop Jamar Chase, you know T Higgins could benefit

515
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 5: from that, and he has, you know, the potential to

516
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 5: have a big enough game to be a Super Bowl MVP,

517
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 5: So I think at fifty to one on I think

518
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 5: Higgins is probably, you know, the best value when it

519
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 5: comes to guys outside of the QB.

520
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 4: Position in my opinion, how about you?

521
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the T. Higgins call because the Rams

522
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 3: play zone at a top three rate. Yeah, and we've

523
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 3: talked about this all year on the Flex, but T.

524
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 3: Higgins is kind of the Bengals go to receiver when

525
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 3: they face zone coverage. Like Jamar Chase kills against man coverage,

526
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 3: he's one of the best in the league at beating

527
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 3: man coverage, but against zone, they're a lot closer.

528
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 2: Like Chase is at two point four yards per out

529
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 2: run and T.

530
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 3: Higgins is at two point one, so there's only a

531
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 3: point three separation, Whereas when you look at man coverage,

532
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 3: Chamar Chase three point six yards per out run, T

533
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 3: Higgins two point one. So Higgins is kind of that

534
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 3: Eddie guy who just happens to be more productive against

535
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: zone because Chase's numbers will go down in that situation.

536
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 3: You can bracket him a little more and things like that.

537
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: Chase is just a guy. He's gonna kill one on

538
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 3: one coverage. So I really do like that that Higgins call.

539
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 3: I think Chase and Cups still kind of stand out

540
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 3: as well. If you're going away from quarterback, you know

541
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 3: you're getting Chase at sixteen to one, which I still

542
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 3: think is decent odds for a guy that we know

543
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 3: can go for like, you know, two hundred plus yards

544
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 3: and two or three touchdowns in a game, and then

545
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup at six to one is just kind of

546
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 3: a way. You know, Matthew Stafford is the obvious choice

547
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: and he's the favorite. So there's a lot of correlation

548
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 3: obviously between Stafford and Cup. And there's a situation kind

549
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 3: of like with Brady and Edelman where you know, maybe

550
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 3: the Bengals say, hey, Cooper Cup is going to beat us,

551
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 3: We're gonna We're gonna make sure we cover everyone else

552
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 3: and let Cup get is like one hundred and fifty yards.

553
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,199
Speaker 3: So if Cup goes like you know, ten for one

554
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 3: fifty with a touchdown or two, and Stafford only finishes

555
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 3: with like two hundred and fifty yards but the Rams

556
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 3: win the game, you're looking at.

557
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup for for MVP.

558
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 3: So I think it's Cup Chase and loved the Higgins

559
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: call as well.

560
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 4: For me, Is there.

561
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 5: Anybody like above one hundred to one odds that you'd consider.

562
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: Let's see, I would say above one hundred.

563
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 5: Can it be at one hundred to one at yeah, yeah, yeah,

564
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 5: like you have like Jalen Ramsey, Yes, that's that was

565
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 5: the guy that's he's one hundred to one.

566
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 4: Okay, it's Jayleen.

567
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 3: It's it's Jayalen Ramsey because like he wants this right,

568
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 3: like you know what I mean, Like he this is

569
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 3: his kind of stage. He wants to be seen on

570
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 3: this stage. He's going he may he may guard Chase

571
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 3: one on one. I mean, who knows, maybe they switch it up.

572
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 3: It's a Super Bowl, maybe they break tendency. He's gonna

573
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 3: want an interception. He's gonna want to try to show out.

574
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: He's gonna want to blitz and get a sack and

575
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 3: get a big play.

576
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 2: So I think Ramsey.

577
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 3: Will be all over the field, and uh, you know,

578
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 3: I think he's the obvious guy that stands out, especially

579
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 3: when you're getting him at one hundred to one, whereas

580
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 3: Vonville or who by the way, has won one, he's

581
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 3: fifty to one. So, you know, defensive players, I think

582
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 3: it's kind of a toss up. You know, whoever the

583
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 3: ball's hands kind of lands in if you get a

584
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 3: fumble six or a pick six. But you also have

585
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 3: Aaron Donald and he's elved to one, right, So you're

586
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 3: not really getting value on these other stars, Whereas Ramsey,

587
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 3: because of what they're doing with him and putting him

588
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 3: in that star position, he's actually being able to be

589
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 3: around the ball a lot more. So I think that's

590
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 3: a ridiculous value for Ramsey. Still a low probability outcome,

591
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 3: but I mean, of everyone on a one hundred to

592
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 3: one or better, I think Ramsey sticks out like a

593
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 3: sore throw.

594
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 4: Yeah.

595
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 5: No, I would agree, and you know, he would probably

596
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 5: deserve it if Jamar Chase finishes with zero catches for

597
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 5: scary yards or something. But it also means they're not

598
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 5: throwing to Ramsey, so it's kind of hard for him

599
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 5: to make flash plays in the box score to kind

600
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 5: of warrant an MVP vote. So I agree with you there,

601
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 5: but it's definitely tough these one hundred one. These guys

602
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 5: are one hundred to one for a reason. But I

603
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 5: think like a guy like Trey Hendrickson might be sneaky

604
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,719
Speaker 5: on the Bengals side by the way, I'm attacking these

605
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 5: Bengal players because I'm in be on them plus five

606
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 5: and a half and you know money or plus four

607
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 5: and a half and money lines.

608
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 3: So I'm trying about to say, where are you getting

609
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 3: that line? But podcast, let's talk bit plus five and

610
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 3: a half.

611
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe I'm seeing in the future that I'm waiting

612
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 5: for big it up to five and a half. But

613
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 5: I think he's he's more likely to get like a

614
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 5: strip stack, you know, things like that to kind of

615
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 5: like make splash plays in the box score. So I

616
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 5: think Hendricks and out of these guys that are just

617
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 5: you know, one hundred to one or better, he's probably

618
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 5: my pick.

619
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,239
Speaker 3: I'll give you one more name since you know, and

620
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people obviously the market.

621
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 2: Thinks the Rams are going to win, So some of

622
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 2: these RAMS guys do stick out here.

623
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 3: One other one that I'll mention is Leonard Floyd because

624
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 3: all eves are going to be on Donald.

625
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 2: How do we block Donald? How do we block von Miller?

626
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 3: Leonard of Floyd is that guy that is going to

627
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 3: get you know, he'll probably get singled up. They can

628
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 3: put him on the you know, on prints on the

629
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 3: right tackle. You know that's been uh that's been an issue.

630
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 3: You can kind of isolate him where you want. So

631
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: and now we don't even know about c. J Usmo,

632
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 3: which would have been a valuable like chip blocker on

633
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 3: the outside. So I mean Leonard Floyd, you know, maybe

634
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 3: there's a fumble or a sack or something, he picks

635
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 3: it up, maybe he causes it, stripsack.

636
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: You know, that could be just a massive for him.

637
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 3: And we've seen some random defensive players win it in

638
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 3: the pat not that Floyd is random, but he's not

639
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: like a Donald or a Ramsey. So I think he's

640
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 3: worth mentioning. And what do you think about this? Since

641
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 3: you like the Bengals. No kicker has ever won. But

642
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 3: if the Bengals have a chance, I feel like they're

643
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 3: going to have to slow down that Rams offense too.

644
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: The Rams defense is obviously very good, and the Bengals

645
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 3: aren't going to have issues blocking you know, all these

646
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 3: guys in the Rams front.

647
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: So I mean, we could get one of those low

648
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 2: scoring Super Bowls.

649
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: If McPherson, If the Bengals win like eighteen to ten

650
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: or fifteen to ten right Anderson, which they had, they've

651
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 3: won the game by fifteen to ten. Scorer this year.

652
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 3: But McPherson makes like five field goals and like two

653
00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:00,040
Speaker 3: or three fifty yarders, Like, he has to get the MVP, right.

654
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 5: Absolutely, you know it's it's gonna be uncommon, but that's

655
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 5: why he's one hundred and one.

656
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:05,959
Speaker 4: Right.

657
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 5: But if there were ever a kicker I think that

658
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 5: could do it, it's probably him. You know, he'll probably

659
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 5: have to kick the game winner to win it, and yeah,

660
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 5: it would have to be a low scoring game where

661
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 5: he gets about four field goals including the game winner.

662
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 5: Maybe you know, two of those kicks have to be

663
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 5: over fifty yards, but it's certainly possible. He's been one

664
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 5: of the better stories of the Bengals season. So yeah,

665
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 5: if there were ever a time to bet the kicker,

666
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 5: I think it was Freeman bet zero line that one year,

667
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 5: and it looks like he's gonna do it. But yeah,

668
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 5: I think this would be the one time I can

669
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 5: get behind backing a kicker at one hundred to one

670
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 5: with Mick Yeers.

671
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 2: All right, So yeah, that was our MVP talk.

672
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 3: Just to recap. We like Burrows value a little more

673
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 3: than Stafford here, but really like the receivers values. They

674
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 3: won four to the last seventeen, so t Higgins at

675
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 3: fifty to one, Jamar Chase at sixteen to one, Cooper

676
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 3: Cup at six to one, and then some long shots

677
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: Trey Hendrickson, Jaywen Ramsey, Evan McPherson, Leonard Floyd all one

678
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 3: hundred to one. All right, let's go to another fun

679
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 3: one first touchdown and uh, I like to look at this,

680
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 3: uh in terms of the teams, you know, like first

681
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 3: touchdown for the Rams, first touchdown for the Bengals. I

682
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 3: think that's a little easier to cap. But how how

683
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 3: do you kind of approach the first touchdown markets? I know,

684
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: you usually have a lot of great, uh simulations and

685
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 3: things like that that are able to kind of give

686
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 3: us some some true odds here.

687
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I have projections for these and you know,

688
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 5: I project, you know, touchdowns for every player, and it's

689
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 5: it's factoring in. I'm using the Rams or favored by

690
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 5: four and a half, so I'm not, you know, favoring

691
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 5: the Bengals here. And with with all that said, I

692
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 5: am showing Jamar Chase offering quite a bit of value

693
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 5: at nine to one, so I'm projecting them closer to

694
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 5: seven to one here, again factoring everything where I think

695
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 5: the Rams are probably more likely score first, but you know, Chase,

696
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 5: especially out of the gate, he has such big play

697
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 5: potential when it comes to the first touchdown score.

698
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 4: That's kind of what I like.

699
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 5: So I think, out of you know, both sides, I

700
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 5: think the best value right now is probably Jamar Chase

701
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 5: at nine to one.

702
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 3: I'll give everyone out there the breakdowns of what actually

703
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 3: has happened this year. I know that's you know, it's

704
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 3: not necessarily going to line up with the models, which

705
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: are a lot more sophisticated but still interesting. For the Rams,

706
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup has done it in four out of the

707
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: twenty games, or he's done it twenty percent of the times,

708
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: and also Vin Jefferson has done it twenty percent of

709
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 3: the time.

710
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 2: Those are the two leaders for the Rams.

711
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 3: Higbee and Michelle have done it three times each, or

712
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 3: fifteen percent of the time. And then for the Bengals,

713
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 3: Joe Mixon has done it twenty five percent of the time,

714
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: really actually five out of nineteen games because he didn't

715
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: play in that week eighteen games, so he's above twenty

716
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 3: five percent? Is Joe Micky here and then cj usomach

717
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 3: Jamar Chase have each done it three times, so about

718
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 3: fifteen percent for each of those guys.

719
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: So those are the leaders for the Bengals.

720
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 3: So I do think there are some interesting ways to

721
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 3: exploit this market.

722
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 2: In terms of the first touchdown for each team.

723
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 3: For the Rams, Van Jefferson is ten to one to

724
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 3: score the Rams first touchdown. That's a nine percent chance.

725
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 3: And I know Jefferson has been kind of quiet lately,

726
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 3: but he's still out there running a route on over

727
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 3: ninety percent of Stafford's dropbacks. So the odds are if

728
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 3: it's a passing play, Jefferson's going to be in there,

729
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 3: and he pretty much plays every snap, so unless they

730
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 3: go really heavy or it's a running play, I think

731
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 3: you got really good.

732
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 2: Odds on Jefferson right here.

733
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 3: Ten to one is a nine percent implied probability, and

734
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 3: he's done it twenty percent of the time this year,

735
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 3: so I'm not saying he has a true twenty percent chance,

736
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 3: but yeah, I think it's a little bit higher or

737
00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 3: substantially higher than nine percent or ten to one odds here.

738
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 3: I also think Cam Akers is interesting. He's five to

739
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 3: one to score the first touchdown for the Rams at

740
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 3: seventeen percent. A starting running back for the Rams has

741
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 3: scored in a quarter of their games the first touchdown,

742
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: so that's about twenty five percent, whereas the imply to

743
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 3: odds for Acres that are about seventeen percent.

744
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 2: So I think you're getting.

745
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 3: A pretty good edge there, and that that's a pretty

746
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 3: you know, we know Acres, we know Michelle will probably

747
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: mix in, but Acres is the starting running back.

748
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 2: That's been abundantly clear.

749
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: I think he'll be He'll get the first crack at

750
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 3: the at the goal line, carries down there, so I

751
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 3: really like that one.

752
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 2: And then Tyler.

753
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 3: Higbee, if he plays, you know, fifteen percent of the

754
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 3: time he scored the Rams first touchdown, the odds I

755
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 3: and probably only about a ten percent chance at nine

756
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 3: to one, maybe because he's injured, but if he's playing,

757
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 3: he's gonna be out.

758
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 2: He's another guy.

759
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 3: He's gonna be out there every snap, so I think

760
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 3: he's another good bet. And then for the Bengals mentioned mixing,

761
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 3: he's done it over twenty five percent of the time.

762
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 3: His odds to score the Bengals first touchdown are three

763
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 3: and a half one, so the implied odds are only

764
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 3: about twenty percent, whereas his true odds are probably closer

765
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 3: to twenty five percent, and then a real two long shots,

766
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 3: the backup running backs for the Bengals. I mentioned I

767
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,439
Speaker 3: don't like t Ryan for his median, but I do

768
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 3: like him for a long shot because he's actually scored

769
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 3: the Bengals first touchdown twice this year. And that's not

770
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 3: even including the game where you know, no one played,

771
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 3: because I don't think he.

772
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 2: Played in that game either, the last game of the season, and.

773
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 4: It was very tilting for DFS.

774
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 3: Right yeah, because he thought he was going to play that,

775
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 3: you know, nice little zero in our lineup. But I digress.

776
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 3: But so he's done it ten percent of the time.

777
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 3: His odds are twenty eight to one. That's just a

778
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 3: three point four percent implied odds, So you're getting about

779
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 3: three x on what his true odds have been this year.

780
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 3: That doesn't mean his true odds going forward or ten percent.

781
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 3: But the point is they you know, he's kind of

782
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:56,959
Speaker 3: one of those guys that they just draw us things up.

783
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 2: For every once in a while. I don't know if

784
00:36:58,280 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 2: they'll do it as much here.

785
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 3: That's why I like his But at twenty eight to one,

786
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, it's not bad, and you know

787
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,280
Speaker 3: there's also the possibility that maybe Mixing gets like banged

788
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 3: up on like a long carrier that he runs it

789
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: in from like a yard out. So there's a lot

790
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: of possibilities there for p Ryan and then Chris Evans

791
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 3: kind of the same thing. His odds are thirty three

792
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 3: to one two point nine percent, and Piet odds he's

793
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 3: actually done it twice this year.

794
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,280
Speaker 2: Now, one of them was in the Week eighteen game.

795
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 3: But he's also the kick return so he's going to

796
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 3: get some chances here to do this. You know, if

797
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: the Bengals win to toss, he could get a chance

798
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 3: early in the game, about a forty percent chance that

799
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 3: you know, it's not a touchback for Matt Gay. So

800
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 3: I like Chris Evans as well at thirty three to one,

801
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 3: and again with these backup running backs, you never know,

802
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 3: like Mixing could break a long run, maybe he has

803
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:49,720
Speaker 3: to come out, maybe he gets banged up. He always

804
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 3: seems to be a little banged up, and somebody else

805
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 3: has to come in and get like a one or

806
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 3: two yard touchdown. So I think if there's ever a

807
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 3: time to bet backup running backs who are projecting for

808
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 3: like half a touch for some long shot.

809
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 2: It's it's now so because.

810
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 3: We usually just don't even get odds posted a lot

811
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 3: of times for some of these, So especially for first

812
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,919
Speaker 3: team touchdown, we might get first touchdown scorer, but then

813
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:16,399
Speaker 3: that's just even harder. But for first team touchdown, I

814
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 3: think most of these teams should score a touchdown, and

815
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 3: if not, our McPherson beck cashes exactly.

816
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 2: So yeah, those are the kind of ones I'm looking at.

817
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 3: But I really think that Van Jefferson one stands out

818
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 3: just because he's on the field every play and his

819
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:35,280
Speaker 3: true odds this season have been, you know, more.

820
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 2: Than double what the what the implied odds are.

821
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, that makes sense.

822
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,760
Speaker 5: And just looking at your breakdown, which you did a

823
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 5: fantastic job of.

824
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 4: By the way, just Uzoma tied.

825
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 5: For second with Chase with three first touchdown scores in

826
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:51,360
Speaker 5: twenty games. Like Uzama seems like a serious fifty to

827
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,399
Speaker 5: fifty shot to play this game. So if he were

828
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,439
Speaker 5: to be ruled out and it's true sample, that's that's

829
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,919
Speaker 5: a massive drop off in terms of you know, touchdown xpect.

830
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 5: So you know, guys like Chase Mix and Higgins, their

831
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 5: odds will only go up. So I think that the

832
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 5: time to kind of attack this market for either team,

833
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 5: because you already mentioned Higbee is a fifty to fifty

834
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 5: bet as well. The kind of the time to take

835
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 5: advantage of that is probably now if you can find value,

836
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 5: because they might only go up if one of these

837
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 5: tight ends is ruled out.

838
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're all right. So that's first touchdown for the game.

839
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 3: John loves the nine to one odds for Chase. I'm

840
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 3: guessing those are going to get shorter as we approach

841
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:34,319
Speaker 3: game time. And then for first Rams touchdown, I really

842
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,919
Speaker 3: like Van Jefferson at ten to one, at light cam

843
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 3: Makers at five to one as well, and then on

844
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 3: the Bengal side, we love Joe Mixon at three and

845
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 3: a half to one and Pe Ryan and Evans' long

846
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 3: shots at twenty eight and thirty three to one, respectively.

847
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:57,280
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873
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa, or one eight

874
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 1: eight eight five three two thirty five hundred in Virginia.

875
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 1: That's sink not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening.

876
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:27,439
Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show.

877
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 3: Let's move on to an interesting prop uh the first

878
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 3: play of the game Runner pass uh any thoughts. I

879
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 3: have some thoughts on this, but I'm just curious to

880
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,359
Speaker 3: your thoughts. Do you ever bet this line or do

881
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 3: you have any thoughts on just, you know, based on

882
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 3: these two teams, how to attack this one.

883
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 5: Now, this is usually when I stay away from I

884
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 5: include this with the first time out type of props

885
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 5: that I ever bet. But I'm assuming with this matchup

886
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 5: there would be a pass, especially with you know how

887
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 5: pass heavy the Bengals have been of late, But last

888
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 5: week it seemed like they ran it a ton on

889
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 5: first down, so I'd probably stay away. This seems a

890
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 5: little too random for me, but if you have any

891
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 5: info that can convince me otherwise, go for it.

892
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 3: I think you have to bang pass here because at

893
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 3: MGM run is minus one thirty passes even money at

894
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 3: plus one hundred.

895
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 4: Wow.

896
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 3: I went back and looked at every first play of

897
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 3: the game for each team.

898
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 4: There you go.

899
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 3: The Rams have passed only forty percent.

900
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 2: Of the time, eight out of twenty.

901
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 3: Okay, the Bengals have passed fifteen of twenty times.

902
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:38,280
Speaker 2: That's eighty percent.

903
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:42,720
Speaker 3: So you average that out and that's about sixty percent,

904
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 3: which which meaning the true odds are closer to minus

905
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 3: one fifty. But either way at worst, I'd say at

906
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 3: worst it's a fifty to fifty bet and you're getting

907
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 3: plus one hundred anyway for pass and I think that's

908
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 3: the floor. So anytime you can get even money for

909
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 3: the floor, I think you got to take it here

910
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 3: because if you want to say, hey, none of us know,

911
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: you could go either way, fine, but then in reality

912
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 3: you should It should be minus one fifteen each way

913
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 3: given the vig. But you're still getting essentially.

914
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:14,720
Speaker 2: Free veig on the pass year at plus one hundred,

915
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 2: So I think you got a bang pass year.

916
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 3: But even just based on these teams tendencies, just like

917
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 3: it's just like you know, looking at all these teams,

918
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 3: they've deferred and you know, more often than not the

919
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 3: Bengals are going to pass, so the Rams have been getting.

920
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 2: A little more you know, pass.

921
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 3: They went through the stage in the middle of the

922
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 3: year when they ran a lot, but they've been passing

923
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 3: a little more, especially against good run defenses.

924
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 2: And the Bengals run defense.

925
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: Is better than their pass defense. So I do think

926
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 3: that the Rams, if they get the ball first, are

927
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 3: a good bet to come out and throwing the ball.

928
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 3: And then the Bengals have been an eighty percent eighty

929
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 3: percent odds to throw the ball. So yeah, I think

930
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 3: you got a bang pass year.

931
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 5: It's a Super Bowl too. These these coaches have two

932
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 5: weeks to dream up their first play. Do you think

933
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 5: they're just going to bang it up in the middle

934
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 5: with mixing or acres for two yard kerry? Hell no,

935
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 5: just take a deep shot or you know, just complete

936
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 5: a four yard pass just to settle the nerves of

937
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 5: the quarterback and play it like it does make sense

938
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 5: to just you know, take past it even money.

939
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 4: You've convinced me on this one, so.

940
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, we love pass it even money. I would even

941
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 3: bet it a little past even money. I would bet

942
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 3: it's about maybe one thirty or so, because I think

943
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,240
Speaker 3: the true odds are poser to sixty percent just based

944
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 3: on the histories. All right, let's talk about some scoring

945
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 3: early on in the game. We'll talk first quarter, in

946
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 3: first half in a minute, but first six minutes. That's

947
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 3: an interesting one that sometimes people want to get down on.

948
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on this one.

949
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 5: Not really, because you know, I'll probably end up being

950
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 5: on the under. I think it's going to get bet

951
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 5: up potentially at forty nine and a half, maybe fifty again,

952
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 5: so I'm look into bet on the under stuff anything.

953
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 5: I would fade a score in the first six minutes. Yeah, So,

954
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 5: I think because you had anticipate that most action will

955
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 5: be on a score happening in the first six minutes,

956
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 5: people don't want to root for nothing to happen, So

957
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 5: I would probably wait for this do odds for the

958
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 5: know on this market will probably only get better. So

959
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 5: if anything, without looking at the data I'm sure you gathered,

960
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 5: I'll probably be on the know on this, just sort

961
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 5: of fading the market.

962
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:20,919
Speaker 2: Yeah.

963
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 3: So the odds I've steen out there about minus one

964
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 3: forty for the no I think the true odd should

965
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 3: be closer about minus one seventy, which is about a

966
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 3: sixty four percent chance of it of no score because

967
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 3: you look at this season, Cincinnati scored in the first

968
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 3: six minutes in twenty percent of their games, and so

969
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 3: did the Rams. And then Cincinnati allowed to score in

970
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 3: the first six minutes in twenty five percent of the games,

971
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 3: the Rams allowed it in fifteen percent, So about a

972
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 3: twenty percent chance for each team. You kind of do

973
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 3: some math, you know, and it comes out to about

974
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:57,720
Speaker 3: a sixty four percent chance of not having a score

975
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 3: by either team in that first six minutes. And that

976
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: would be about minus one seventy. And again, the odds

977
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 3: that I've seen out there are about minus one forty,

978
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 3: So you're getting some pretty good value there. But I

979
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 3: think that's going to go right into the next thing

980
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 3: I want to talk about, which is early in the game.

981
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 3: I mean, we kind of talked about we do expect it,

982
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 3: you know, a pass a little bit more likely than

983
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: a run early in the game. But one of the

984
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 3: things I will say is that first quarters in the

985
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 3: Super Bowl they do tend to be well scoring. They

986
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 3: do tend to be a situation where teams are kind

987
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 3: of feeling themselves out. Only eight of twenty two first

988
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 3: quarters since nineteen ninety nine in the Super Bowl have

989
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 3: hit double digits. That's this thirty six point three percent.

990
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 3: Right now, the over under at bet MGM is nine

991
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 3: and a half, so I think you'd have to go

992
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: pretty juice to the under before you stop betting, you know,

993
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,319
Speaker 3: on under nine and a half year. But what are

994
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 3: your thoughts on just how these teams are going to

995
00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 3: kind of come out? Is it going to change based on,

996
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 3: you know, whether the Rams win and defer or are

997
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,719
Speaker 3: the Bengals win and defer the coin thoss, because that

998
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 3: again is going to happen.

999
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 5: No, I don't think that would matter, but I do anticipate,

1000
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 5: you know, the first quarter it's going to be a

1001
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 5: bit of a chess match. These coaches will probably be

1002
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 5: playing for field position, just trying to settle in. So yeah,

1003
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 5: I'm probably going to lean on the under here. And

1004
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 5: this is usually when I think Kevin Hubert is going

1005
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:25,880
Speaker 5: to launch a punt over fifty two and a half yards,

1006
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 5: So I think early on, I think it will be

1007
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 5: sort of a field position battle. I think the second

1008
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 5: half would be when we start seeing fireworks once these

1009
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 5: coaches sort of.

1010
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 4: Relaxed a bit. But yeah, typically the first quarter is

1011
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:39,320
Speaker 4: the you know, the lowest scoring.

1012
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 2: Quarter, But you like the first quarter under?

1013
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, for sure.

1014
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 3: Okay, So I got some numbers for you. You're going

1015
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 3: to love this, Okay, bring the first quarter total this year,

1016
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 3: the Bengals are six thirteen and one. The Rams are

1017
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 3: even worse at six and fourteen towards the over. That

1018
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 3: is so combined, they're twelve and two twenty seven with

1019
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 3: one push toward the over, or looked at another way,

1020
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 3: they're twenty seven to twelve and one toward the under.

1021
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:09,800
Speaker 2: A cool sixty nine percent.

1022
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:11,240
Speaker 4: Wow.

1023
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's uh, that's a that's a yeah exactly.

1024
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 3: That's another one of those bets. Uh.

1025
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:19,760
Speaker 2: You know, I I'm going to lock in here.

1026
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 3: You know, obviously you can see a big play or

1027
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 3: something could ruin it, but you still need that touchdown

1028
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 3: and then another field goal.

1029
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:27,799
Speaker 4: You know.

1030
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 3: Both of these teams, I think, well, you know, the quarterbacks,

1031
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 3: you could generally trust them that you might get sacked,

1032
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 3: you know, so that that could also help burrow.

1033
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 2: Led the league in sacked, which could really help it.

1034
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think I think this is a nice,

1035
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 3: a nice little edge here on the first quarter. The

1036
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,360
Speaker 3: spreads have been both teams have been kind of a

1037
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 3: little better than average toward the spread in the first quarter,

1038
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 3: but I don't see any edge there second quarter though,

1039
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 3: So if we hit the first quarter under this, and

1040
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 3: this kind of goes into live betting, which again you know,

1041
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,760
Speaker 3: we can talk about more detail, you know, at other times.

1042
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 3: But second quarter totals rams ten nine to one, but

1043
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 3: the Bengals fourteen and six, so that you know, the

1044
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,800
Speaker 3: Bengals six thirteen and one in the first quarter, total

1045
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 3: fourteen and six in the second quarter. The Bengals have

1046
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 3: really kind of they're an adjustments team, right, Like we

1047
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 3: saw that last week against the Chiefs. The Bengals are

1048
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 3: an adjustment team. So sometimes it takes to the second half.

1049
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 3: That's been the narrative, but can be the second quarter

1050
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 3: as well. And the second quarter is just a high

1051
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 3: scoring quarter. So I think if you are looking to

1052
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 3: betting over which I know most people are, second quarter

1053
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 3: probably makes more sense just given the history, given the

1054
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 3: two teams, given what we see in the Super Bowl.

1055
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,399
Speaker 3: So the overrunner for the second quarter is fourteen, which

1056
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,959
Speaker 3: is pretty doable because I think, I mean, how would

1057
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,960
Speaker 3: you assess the chances of like at least one of

1058
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 3: these teams scoring in the two minute I mean it's

1059
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 3: very high, right, Yeah.

1060
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 5: We could see you know, both teams score in the

1061
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:59,359
Speaker 5: two minutes if the first team gets the ball in

1062
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,279
Speaker 5: the two minute offense and maybe just march down the

1063
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 5: field and score immediately. You know, both teams have really

1064
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 5: good pickers, so we could see another team march down

1065
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 5: the field and get a field weal, So I do

1066
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 5: like the idea of you know, locking in the first

1067
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:13,240
Speaker 5: quarter under nine and a half before the game starts,

1068
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 5: and then maybe just wait till endgame to sort of

1069
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 5: bet the over on the first half once we do

1070
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 5: get closer to the second quarter. I think that makes sense,

1071
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 5: especially just based on these two teams and you know

1072
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 5: how good both offenses are, but they could start off flow.

1073
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think that's a good in play betting strategy.

1074
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:33,360
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the third quarter.

1075
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,800
Speaker 3: Third quarter, Bengals have been kind of averaged toward the total.

1076
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 3: RAMS have actually been thirteen six and one in the

1077
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:42,879
Speaker 3: third quarter, so toward the over, so you know, take

1078
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:44,879
Speaker 3: that what you will. I don't see anything major that's

1079
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 3: kind of causing that, but I did see something interesting

1080
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 3: with the third quarter spread, and that's because, as we mentioned,

1081
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 3: we talked about Cincinnati, their team that makes great adjustments,

1082
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 3: So it wasn't an average like that first second half turnaround.

1083
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 3: This season, the Cincinnati Bengals are sixteen and four against

1084
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 3: the spread in the third quarter, the Rams eight and twelve.

1085
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 3: So you combine that and that's a seventy percent on average,

1086
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 3: you know, hit rate in Cincinnati's favor, Like, that's that's

1087
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 3: extremely high here. So I mean, any thoughts here on like,

1088
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:26,400
Speaker 3: you know, I know you like you're probably going to

1089
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:28,959
Speaker 3: be on the Bengals full game. Is this something that

1090
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 3: you know you'd kind of want to lock in, you know,

1091
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 3: before the game as well, or is it an opportunity

1092
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 3: to live better?

1093
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 5: How would you kind of use that information? Yeah, that

1094
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 5: is interesting, you know that might be a live bet strategy.

1095
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:46,160
Speaker 5: Plus it's also you know, I'm taking probably the Bengals

1096
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 5: four and a half, hopefully five to gets there, knowing

1097
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:51,959
Speaker 5: that if the Bengals do get behind, they're a team

1098
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 5: that makes adjustments and you know, can come back from

1099
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,240
Speaker 5: any dustice that so I'm sort.

1100
00:51:58,120 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 4: Of baking that in the cake.

1101
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 5: But yeah, if you just want to go into the

1102
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 5: game assuming they'll get behind, and then back them in game,

1103
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 5: you could be getting them, you know, plus ten and

1104
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 5: a half, let's say, so that might be actually the

1105
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 5: smart strategy, but I think going into this, I'm just

1106
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:12,919
Speaker 5: gonna lock them in at four and a half root

1107
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 5: for them out of the gate. But yeah, if they

1108
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 5: do get behind, I am confident we'll come back because

1109
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 5: of a lot of things that you said when they

1110
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 5: make halftime adjustments, and just Joe Bert's ability to come back.

1111
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,640
Speaker 5: So I think it's kind of just whatever, pick your place,

1112
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 5: whatever you know you want to do.

1113
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 4: It's up to you.

1114
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 5: But I'm going to be locking them in before the

1115
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:33,320
Speaker 5: game plus four and a half.

1116
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into some player props.

1117
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 3: Mentioned a couple at the top that we like, but

1118
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 3: let's kind of look at these markets a little more closely.

1119
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 3: Do I know you like the Cooper Cup, I know

1120
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 3: you like Chase his first touchdown. I know you like

1121
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 3: Kevin Euber. What other player props kind of stand out

1122
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:53,320
Speaker 3: to you in the market.

1123
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 4: So I have a.

1124
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 5: Couple Bengals player props I've been eyeing. I haven't locked

1125
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:00,759
Speaker 5: them in yet because their price keeps dropping. I'm sort

1126
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 5: of waiting for it to hit rock bottom and they'll

1127
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,400
Speaker 5: probably go on the over but the first one is

1128
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 5: Joe Burrow over two hundred and seventy one and a

1129
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,920
Speaker 5: half passing yards. Now, granted, this is a tough matchup

1130
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:14,280
Speaker 5: against the Rams, there's no denying that, but Burrow certainly

1131
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 5: has the talent and the weapons to overcome it. The

1132
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 5: Bengals have become increasingly passed heavy since Week fourteen. You know,

1133
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 5: they've had the fourth highest early down pass rate in

1134
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 5: neutral situations. So you know, I think just the volume

1135
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 5: is going to be there, and they've been getting you know,

1136
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 5: Joe Mixon evolved in the passing game. That's sort of

1137
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,919
Speaker 5: been an extension of the running game. So just all

1138
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 5: signs points to Joe Burrow having a good game through

1139
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 5: the air. I'm projecting this closer to two eighty five.

1140
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 5: So the fact that it's too study one, we have

1141
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 5: quite a bit of value, and it, like I said,

1142
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,720
Speaker 5: it keeps dropping. So I'm sort of going to time

1143
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 5: it once it hits rock bottom to go in on

1144
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 5: the over here, and then I'm probably going to pair

1145
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 5: that up with ke Higgins over sixty seven and a

1146
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 5: half receiving yards. You already talked about the top of

1147
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 5: the show how ke Higgins has generally done really well

1148
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 5: against zone defenses this year, so against the Rams that

1149
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 5: play zone at a very high rate, I think Higgins's

1150
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 5: going to have a big game, especially if they put

1151
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:11,240
Speaker 5: extra resources in on you know, slowing down Jamar Chase.

1152
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 5: Tyler Boyd has sort of been invisible in this offensive late,

1153
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,919
Speaker 5: so you know, t Higgins set up for a big

1154
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 5: game here, and if tij Uzoma is ruled out, I

1155
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 5: think that's that's going to help Higgins even more so.

1156
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:26,399
Speaker 5: I love getting Higgins over sixty seven and a half.

1157
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 5: I'm projecting him closer to seventy six up for his median.

1158
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 4: So again, I think.

1159
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 5: There's quite a bit of value here, but I'm going

1160
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:34,759
Speaker 5: to wait for it to kind of drop to the

1161
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:36,399
Speaker 5: low point and then come in on the over.

1162
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 3: Speaking of Uzoma, I think this is a good segue

1163
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:44,360
Speaker 3: as we're talking about player props to kind of ask

1164
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 3: you what impact does Uzoma and Tyler Higbee, both of

1165
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:56,400
Speaker 3: their impacts being out versus in like, is it any

1166
00:54:56,480 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 3: tangible differential in you know, the yardage for Burrow and Stafford.

1167
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 3: Is it any differential in the yardage for guys like Chase,

1168
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:09,760
Speaker 3: you know, cup Beck, is it the second receivers that benefit.

1169
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 3: Is it the is it guys like Van Jefferson and

1170
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 3: Tyler Boyd that benefit?

1171
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 2: Like, how do you think? What do you think happens?

1172
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,360
Speaker 3: And is there a way to take advantage of the market,

1173
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 3: you know, based on the that we don't know right

1174
00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:24,839
Speaker 3: now whether these guys are kind of outer run.

1175
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's certainly a tricky situation.

1176
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:30,959
Speaker 5: Unfortunately, it means that we can't have like we don't

1177
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 5: have any cj Uzoma or Drew sample prop. So that's

1178
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 5: step one is that they can't even offer these props yet.

1179
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 5: But next week I will have my player prop calculator

1180
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 5: where I'm going to have these percentages for every player,

1181
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:48,840
Speaker 5: and I think I'm gonna add in is cj Uzoma.

1182
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 4: In or out?

1183
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 5: Like I will have it that granular and you'll be

1184
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:54,240
Speaker 5: able to see like Tyler Boyd, for example, his projection

1185
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:57,279
Speaker 5: will probably go up if C j Uzoma is ruled out.

1186
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:00,399
Speaker 5: You know again gig and his projection will probably go up.

1187
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:03,399
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna be factoring that all in. I think

1188
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 5: a guy like Jamar Chase probably doesn't matter much. He's

1189
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:08,919
Speaker 5: probably already maxed out. So Uzoma being interrupt probably doesn't

1190
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 5: impact him as much, but these sort of ant layer receivers,

1191
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 5: you could see their projection go up because you know,

1192
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 5: if a guy like Drew Stample is starting, he sees

1193
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:19,880
Speaker 5: way lower target share than.

1194
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:22,360
Speaker 4: C j Uzomas do those those have to go somewhere.

1195
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 5: So I think you'll see, you know, guys like mix

1196
00:56:25,239 --> 00:56:27,799
Speaker 5: In Higgins or Boyd sort of pick those up. And

1197
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,839
Speaker 5: I'll be factoring all that in my player prop tool

1198
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 5: that will be released next week.

1199
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:34,320
Speaker 2: At Action Network dot com.

1200
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 4: At Action Network dot com.

1201
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,399
Speaker 3: Uh, that's yeah, that's an interesting one. Mixing I think,

1202
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 3: you know, you know, I know Boyd is kind of

1203
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 3: thought of as that middle of the field receiver, and

1204
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 3: I think it's about Toby has a good game, So

1205
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 3: I mean he's due, right, He's definitely due another guy.

1206
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,439
Speaker 3: He's just like Van Jefferson, Right, It's like these guys

1207
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 3: are out there ninety percent of the time. Plus it's

1208
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 3: only a matter of time and it could happened on

1209
00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:00,359
Speaker 3: one catch if things go right. So, uh, don't don't

1210
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 3: hate his number at forty one and a half. Though

1211
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 3: I don't think there's really a massive edge based on

1212
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 3: whether he Zoma plays or not. But I think mixing

1213
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 3: is interesting at twenty five and a half, you know,

1214
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 3: the Bengals are underdogs. If there's a lot of zone coverage,

1215
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 3: he could see I think a lot of dumpoffs, and

1216
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 3: as I mentioned, I think he's going to see the

1217
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:19,760
Speaker 3: field more than at any point because this is the

1218
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 3: Super Bowl. I mean, you don't there's no reason to

1219
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 3: play samaj p Ryan in this kind of game, so

1220
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 3: that that could be one.

1221
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, well we'll kind of have.

1222
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:32,919
Speaker 3: The updater projections and you'll have your props calculator. That's

1223
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 3: just something Unfortunately we can't attack as much as we

1224
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 3: want to and that and it kind of carries over

1225
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 3: to just a bunch of the receiving numbers. Really, Like

1226
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 3: if I was sure that they were in or out,

1227
00:57:44,840 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 3: I think I would be a little more confident with

1228
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 3: a recommendation on like Boyd on Jefferson who's been kind

1229
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 3: of trending down, but his numbers also low now because

1230
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:55,960
Speaker 3: of it. But until those guys are ruled in and out,

1231
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 3: I don't think we can really you know, there's really

1232
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 3: not a confident record mandation we could give each way

1233
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 3: either way because it will change. So you like Burrow,

1234
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:08,280
Speaker 3: you like Higgins, I'll talk about a couple that stood

1235
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 3: out to me. The first one was Joe Mixon, and

1236
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 3: I'll stay with the Bengals for a second here. Joe

1237
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 3: Mixon over sixteen and a half rush attempts at minus

1238
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 3: one twenty. He's been over this in twelve out of

1239
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 3: nineteen games this season, or sixty three percent, so that

1240
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 3: would put the true odds closer to minus one seventy.

1241
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 2: But he's also been over.

1242
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 3: In two or three this postseason. And it is interesting

1243
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 3: because you did mention you know, the Burrow yardage prop

1244
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 3: is going down. I don't necessarily think that's like, oh,

1245
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 3: the Bengals are going to struggle. I think that's because

1246
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 3: we've seen the spread. You know, it got bet up

1247
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:45,920
Speaker 3: to four and a half at one point, it's got

1248
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 3: down back to four at some books. So I think,

1249
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 3: you know, the more even the game script is, the

1250
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:53,800
Speaker 3: better chance you have for Mixon to get a decent

1251
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 3: number of rush attempts. So, you know, he's been a

1252
00:58:57,160 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 3: guy that all year long they leaned on him, and

1253
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:01,880
Speaker 3: I thinks a chance he plays more snaps in this

1254
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 3: game than he's played pretty much, I don't want to

1255
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 3: say all season, but pretty much all postseason when he

1256
00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:09,919
Speaker 3: still does take a breather here and there, maybe eighth

1257
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:13,600
Speaker 3: every eighth and ninth snap he'll come out. So I

1258
00:59:13,720 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 3: like the over sixteen and a half rushes from Mixing.

1259
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 3: I have him projected closer to eighteen and a half.

1260
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:22,880
Speaker 5: Wow, Yeah, I have him at seventeen and a half.

1261
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 5: And again I don't think I mentioned this at the top,

1262
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 5: but you know, I'm gonna have a massive card, maybe

1263
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 5: like over ten props total, and I like to make

1264
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 5: sure they all correlate. I ended up going nine to

1265
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:37,240
Speaker 5: zer last year because I'm so meticulous on making sure

1266
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,000
Speaker 5: that if I'm adding a prop that it fits sort

1267
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 5: of the narrative of you know, all my other props.

1268
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,280
Speaker 5: So I think this one pairs well if if you're

1269
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:45,800
Speaker 5: gonna betting on the Bengals, whether it's money line or spread,

1270
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 5: you know, taking Mixing to go over sixteen and a

1271
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 5: half rush steps for like really well with that. So

1272
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 5: I think I'm gonna throw this in there just because yeah,

1273
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 5: like like we said, I don't I don't think Somaje

1274
00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,640
Speaker 5: p Ran or Chris Evans we'll see a rush attempt here,

1275
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 5: so is going to get it all. There's no reason

1276
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 5: to not give him every rush ten. It's a super Bowl,

1277
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:06,840
Speaker 5: so I think it's going to be a much more

1278
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 5: favorable game script than the markets than playing yeah I'm

1279
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 5: with you here. Closer are like eighteen rush stemps.

1280
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 3: And then one other one that really stood out here

1281
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:20,360
Speaker 3: was Matthew Stafford. His rushing prop is at five and

1282
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 3: a half, and I think this is this is a

1283
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 3: really interesting one because it's like, do you have the

1284
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 3: cahonis essentially to bet the under, which I think is

1285
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 3: the right play, even though he's gone over the number

1286
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 3: in every postseason game, but on the season, he's been

1287
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 3: under in thirteen out of twenty, or sixty five percent.

1288
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:47,400
Speaker 3: That would mean his true odds at five and a half,

1289
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 3: the under should be closer to minus one eighty five

1290
01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 3: instead of minus one fifteen. But even more interestingly, you

1291
01:00:54,880 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 3: want to look at the median, which is really what

1292
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:58,720
Speaker 3: we're trying to kind of isolate here and figure out

1293
01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 3: which way to bet. Matthew Stafford's median rushing yard this

1294
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 3: year is half a yard, So I mean, yes, you know,

1295
01:01:10,360 --> 01:01:12,960
Speaker 3: when he goes over, it's usually probably like one scramble

1296
01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:14,439
Speaker 3: that's gonna take him over.

1297
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:16,080
Speaker 2: He doesn't scramble very often.

1298
01:01:16,600 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 3: Maybe he'll get like a couple of quarterback sneaks or

1299
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 3: something like that.

1300
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:24,000
Speaker 2: But I think there's a massive kind of edge here.

1301
01:01:24,520 --> 01:01:26,680
Speaker 3: You know, it didn't quite make it into my top three,

1302
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:28,360
Speaker 3: but it's right there because I still think there's a

1303
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:31,439
Speaker 3: pretty big edge in under five and a half. I mean,

1304
01:01:31,600 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 3: you could have quarterback sneaks, you could have a scramble,

1305
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 3: you could have and then that's not to say, you know, again,

1306
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:40,120
Speaker 3: the Rams are still favored. Even though we both kind

1307
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:43,160
Speaker 3: of lean Bengals at the spread, the Rams are still favored.

1308
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 3: You could get three nail downs, you might even get

1309
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:48,439
Speaker 3: a kneel down at the half. Like, there's a lot

1310
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:50,600
Speaker 3: of ways for him to go under this number, as

1311
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 3: he's done in two thirds of his games this season.

1312
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, so when it comes to Matthew Stafford, even if

1313
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:03,160
Speaker 5: he ends up getting seven rushing yards, let's say if

1314
01:02:03,480 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 5: the Rams win, he'll probably get a couple kneel downs

1315
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:07,400
Speaker 5: at the end and he can still go under. So

1316
01:02:07,520 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 5: I do like sort of the out that you have

1317
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:15,240
Speaker 5: at your disposal if Stafford even clears this. So yeah, no,

1318
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 5: I love this. Like you said, his media on the

1319
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 5: season is a half yard. Yeah, so I wouldn't, you know,

1320
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 5: just overweight. The past few games, he's he's scrambled and

1321
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 5: you know, he looked like shit while doing it. But

1322
01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 5: I think this is giving us a golden opportunity here

1323
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:31,920
Speaker 5: to hammer this under free.

1324
01:02:31,680 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 2: To drive this point home.

1325
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 3: The Bengals have allowed the tense fewest rushing yards to

1326
01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 3: quarterbacks during the regular season. Of those yards, there were

1327
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:43,160
Speaker 3: two hundred and thirty seven of them, over fifty percent

1328
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 3: came from Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, two quarterbacks responsible

1329
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:51,560
Speaker 3: for over fifty percent of the rushing yard is allowed

1330
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:54,440
Speaker 3: during the regular season for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they

1331
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 3: play a lot of his own and they drop eight

1332
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 3: back in the coverage sometimes, as we saw last week.

1333
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:02,840
Speaker 3: So that's chick Mahomes was running backwards for most of

1334
01:03:02,840 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 3: that that second half, and he went well under his

1335
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,760
Speaker 3: his rushing yardage prop last week as well.

1336
01:03:09,840 --> 01:03:11,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like the underhere.

1337
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 3: It's just one of those things where if you look

1338
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 3: at the game logs, you can, oh man, he went

1339
01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 3: over three straight. It's like that's it's not how it works.

1340
01:03:16,960 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 3: We need to look at the larger sample, We need

1341
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:20,920
Speaker 3: to look at the matchup. We need to look at

1342
01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:24,040
Speaker 3: the game script. So yeah, this is what I love.

1343
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 5: One of my favorite Super Bowl he like good beats

1344
01:03:27,800 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 5: of all time was that Patrick Maholmes under twenty nine

1345
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 5: and a half rushing yards and he had like what

1346
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 5: forty one or something heading into the final drive, and

1347
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 5: he didn't just kneel down, he like ran backwards for

1348
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 5: eight to ten yards. Wife, I think to lose about

1349
01:03:45,320 --> 01:03:48,720
Speaker 5: fifteen yards just barely going under the rushing totals. So

1350
01:03:48,760 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 5: these are always exciting to bet on in general when

1351
01:03:51,560 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 5: it comes to scrule. But yeah, this s deffinite one.

1352
01:03:53,640 --> 01:03:56,000
Speaker 5: Probably won't be exciting because he might not even scramble,

1353
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 5: but either way, tond of value here.

1354
01:03:58,520 --> 01:04:01,280
Speaker 3: African don his game with Zeros for zero yard, right,

1355
01:04:01,880 --> 01:04:04,240
Speaker 3: It's a very real outcome here, So yeah, I love

1356
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 3: it all Right. A couple more I want to talk

1357
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 3: about just because they're interesting, they're exciting, people probably are

1358
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 3: gonna want to bet on him.

1359
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:16,040
Speaker 2: I'll start with Cooper Cup right now at BETMGM.

1360
01:04:16,440 --> 01:04:19,960
Speaker 3: His receiving yardage over under is one hundred and five

1361
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:20,520
Speaker 3: and a half.

1362
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:21,280
Speaker 2: What do you think it?

1363
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm right in line with that, like I said,

1364
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:27,560
Speaker 5: so I'm projecting him at eight receptions with a median

1365
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 5: and closer to one oh two and a half. So

1366
01:04:29,200 --> 01:04:32,040
Speaker 5: I'm slightly under and I figured that would be the case.

1367
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 5: They're probably just taking a ton of action on the over.

1368
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:37,000
Speaker 5: But I already gave you an out here Cooper Cup

1369
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:39,400
Speaker 5: over twenty eight and a half yards for as long

1370
01:04:39,400 --> 01:04:41,480
Speaker 5: as reception. I think that's the market to bet on

1371
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:44,080
Speaker 5: for Cooper Cup. I think his you know, his yardage

1372
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 5: is insane for a reason. He's been you know, right

1373
01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:48,840
Speaker 5: around here all season long. But I'm going to stay

1374
01:04:48,840 --> 01:04:50,480
Speaker 5: away from this, but again, I think the values on

1375
01:04:50,560 --> 01:04:53,080
Speaker 5: his longest reception going over.

1376
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:55,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm truly in line with this, Like I

1377
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:57,840
Speaker 3: actually have his media at one oh five and a half,

1378
01:04:57,840 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 3: so I think this is I think this is a

1379
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:05,200
Speaker 3: great line. Let's talk Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase seventy eight

1380
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 3: and a half. You kind of mentioned, you know, T

1381
01:05:08,080 --> 01:05:10,560
Speaker 3: Higgins has been the guy with a Morgan zone. This

1382
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 3: is probably one of those games where you want to

1383
01:05:12,720 --> 01:05:16,920
Speaker 3: sell out the stop Chase bet. MGM has Chase at

1384
01:05:17,240 --> 01:05:20,800
Speaker 3: seventy eight and a half for his receiving yardage over under.

1385
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:22,520
Speaker 5: What do you think of that one? I think that's

1386
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:25,800
Speaker 5: a bit high. I'm projecting this closer to seventy two

1387
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:29,560
Speaker 5: and a half. But again, I'm not gonna directly bet

1388
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:31,840
Speaker 5: the under on Jamar Chase because I'm gonna want the

1389
01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 5: Bengals to win. I have them plus four potentially money line,

1390
01:05:34,800 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 5: so I'm not I don't want to be rooting against

1391
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 5: Jamar Chase. So I think the way to do this

1392
01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:40,320
Speaker 5: is what I described is. You know, I'm going to

1393
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:43,840
Speaker 5: bet Joe Burrow over on his passing yards, so I

1394
01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 5: will be rooting for Jamar Chase in that regard.

1395
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:48,440
Speaker 4: And then I think t Higgins.

1396
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 5: Heading me over on him is sort of a way

1397
01:05:50,360 --> 01:05:53,040
Speaker 5: to hedge a bit and you know, against Jamar Chase,

1398
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:55,040
Speaker 5: so you know, so to speak.

1399
01:05:55,080 --> 01:05:55,680
Speaker 4: So I think that.

1400
01:05:56,080 --> 01:05:59,760
Speaker 5: I'm going to like weasel my way around fading Jamar Chase,

1401
01:05:59,800 --> 01:06:01,120
Speaker 5: but I'm not going to bet it directly.

1402
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:01,920
Speaker 4: How about you.

1403
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm under a little higher than you, but I'm

1404
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:06,920
Speaker 3: at seventy six and a half for a median, so

1405
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 3: a couple of yards under whereas I'm a couple I'm

1406
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 3: about four yards over on Higgins, have him about seventy

1407
01:06:13,280 --> 01:06:17,040
Speaker 3: one and a half for the median. Actually, let's talk

1408
01:06:17,040 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 3: about Tyler Boyd really quick and Jefferson because I do

1409
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:23,400
Speaker 3: so right now, I kind of have the snap split

1410
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 3: in my model between you know you Zoma and Sample

1411
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 3: and Higbee and Blanton. But I am over both Tyler

1412
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 3: Boyd and Van Jefferson current numbers. I have Boyd about

1413
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:41,160
Speaker 3: forty five and a half the markets at forty one

1414
01:06:41,240 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 3: and a half, and then I have Jefferson about thirty

1415
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:46,479
Speaker 3: five and a half the markets thirty one and a half.

1416
01:06:46,560 --> 01:06:49,200
Speaker 3: So are you more in line with the market or

1417
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:51,560
Speaker 3: are you kind of where are you on those two guys?

1418
01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:54,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm in line with the market on Boyd

1419
01:06:54,120 --> 01:06:57,320
Speaker 5: and full disclosure, I had Boyd over was like thirty

1420
01:06:57,400 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 5: nine and a half. For Steve Yart's last name. He

1421
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 5: had like with the first drive, he had three catches

1422
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:03,720
Speaker 5: for nineteen yards. I'm like, all right, got it in

1423
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:06,160
Speaker 5: the bag. And that's pretty much what he ended on.

1424
01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:09,240
Speaker 5: He had an a dot cost to like one point

1425
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 5: nine last week. If anything, I would maybe attack the

1426
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:14,720
Speaker 5: over on his receptions and attack the under on the

1427
01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:18,240
Speaker 5: receiving yards just that's how his usage has been especially

1428
01:07:18,280 --> 01:07:21,000
Speaker 5: of late. But I'm in line with the market on him.

1429
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 5: I think Van Jefferson. He's a guy I probably wouldn't

1430
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:26,400
Speaker 5: touch the receiving yards because I think you mentioned it.

1431
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:29,320
Speaker 5: He can score at any point on the field. His

1432
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:32,439
Speaker 5: A dot has been through the roof of late last

1433
01:07:32,440 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 5: week it was twenty four point four. A couple weeks

1434
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:37,600
Speaker 5: before that was thirty one. So he's clearly the deep threat.

1435
01:07:37,640 --> 01:07:40,280
Speaker 5: I think if there were a market to attack, it'd

1436
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 5: be under two and a half receptions. I haven't seen

1437
01:07:43,520 --> 01:07:46,080
Speaker 5: it posted anywhere, but I'm assuming the market will be

1438
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:48,280
Speaker 5: about like two and a half receptions. I think I'll

1439
01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:51,880
Speaker 5: go on the under on that. But again, I'm sort

1440
01:07:51,920 --> 01:07:54,320
Speaker 5: of waiting for the Tyler Higbee news. I think if

1441
01:07:54,520 --> 01:07:56,480
Speaker 5: if Higby's playing it, I'll be a little bit more

1442
01:07:56,520 --> 01:08:01,640
Speaker 5: comfortable attacking Van Jefferson's under. Although Kendill Blant last week

1443
01:08:01,680 --> 01:08:04,680
Speaker 5: did look pretty good. He saw a target on fifty

1444
01:08:05,320 --> 01:08:08,440
Speaker 5: of his routes. I think it was so it's you know,

1445
01:08:08,600 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 5: it's one of those things where I'm gonna wait and see,

1446
01:08:10,080 --> 01:08:12,680
Speaker 5: but I think I'll probably attack Van Jerffer since undertwo

1447
01:08:12,680 --> 01:08:13,480
Speaker 5: and a half receptions.

1448
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 4: What about you?

1449
01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:15,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's minus one thirty.

1450
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:18,760
Speaker 3: I mean I wouldn't touch the receptions. I think I

1451
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 3: would lean over on the yardage. I just like, it's

1452
01:08:21,240 --> 01:08:23,800
Speaker 3: just I just think these last few games, you know,

1453
01:08:23,840 --> 01:08:27,680
Speaker 3: given the underlying usage, it's like it's just kind of

1454
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:31,519
Speaker 3: a variance, right, It's like, yes, obviously the games are

1455
01:08:31,520 --> 01:08:34,160
Speaker 3: getting more important, maybe he's getting targeted little less, but

1456
01:08:35,120 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 3: my numbers are still coming out, you know, well above that,

1457
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:40,200
Speaker 3: and he could still get it on one catch, so exactly,

1458
01:08:40,680 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 3: And this is the type of you know, you have

1459
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:44,639
Speaker 3: two weeks to scheme, right, It's like you're gonna try

1460
01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:47,200
Speaker 3: to shut down the top guys anyway. So I mean

1461
01:08:47,240 --> 01:08:50,360
Speaker 3: there could be an opportunity for him. So that's the

1462
01:08:50,360 --> 01:08:52,160
Speaker 3: way I mean, I don't know. Again, like there is

1463
01:08:52,200 --> 01:08:53,960
Speaker 3: a lot of variants either way, and I don't like

1464
01:08:54,000 --> 01:08:57,639
Speaker 3: taking overs. So you know, obviously check out the Action

1465
01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:00,439
Speaker 3: Network AP at Chris raybaon and you're at at the

1466
01:09:00,479 --> 01:09:03,160
Speaker 3: underscods maker you can see what we end up doing here.

1467
01:09:03,200 --> 01:09:04,839
Speaker 2: But I would lean over.

1468
01:09:06,200 --> 01:09:09,920
Speaker 3: And another guy stick with the receivers because this one

1469
01:09:09,920 --> 01:09:10,719
Speaker 3: caught my eye too.

1470
01:09:11,160 --> 01:09:13,120
Speaker 2: Odell Beckham's been amazing for the Rams.

1471
01:09:13,160 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 3: Great pickup his number for receiving yardage at bet MGM

1472
01:09:18,000 --> 01:09:21,960
Speaker 3: sixty four and a half. I'm looking at our projection

1473
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:26,120
Speaker 3: sheet for Action Network and both of us are under that.

1474
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:29,880
Speaker 3: Is that something you'd be willing to go under it?

1475
01:09:29,960 --> 01:09:32,360
Speaker 3: I think it's a little high, but at the same time,

1476
01:09:32,360 --> 01:09:34,360
Speaker 3: it feels kind of dangerous because I know he's been

1477
01:09:34,400 --> 01:09:36,719
Speaker 3: waiting forever for this too. It's like kind of like Ramsey.

1478
01:09:36,760 --> 01:09:39,720
Speaker 3: It's like this is his moment to shine. So I mean,

1479
01:09:39,760 --> 01:09:41,320
Speaker 3: where are you on the beckup because I think that's

1480
01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:43,559
Speaker 3: gonna be another popular one that people are looking to bet,

1481
01:09:43,840 --> 01:09:44,799
Speaker 3: you know, one way or another.

1482
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:48,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, So last week I had the over I think

1483
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:50,400
Speaker 5: I was fifty five and a half yards cashed easily.

1484
01:09:50,760 --> 01:09:51,840
Speaker 4: I am on the under here.

1485
01:09:51,880 --> 01:09:54,880
Speaker 5: I think it's one of those prosphere it's probably gonna

1486
01:09:54,920 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 5: only go up, so I'm gonna wait. Yeah, but I

1487
01:09:57,439 --> 01:10:00,640
Speaker 5: like the underyard, but I might attack the under receptions.

1488
01:10:00,720 --> 01:10:03,600
Speaker 5: Right now, it's five and a half on MGM the

1489
01:10:03,640 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 5: owners minus one forty five. There might be more value

1490
01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:09,360
Speaker 5: in that market because I could see him, you know,

1491
01:10:09,439 --> 01:10:12,200
Speaker 5: catching a deep baller two in this game. But I

1492
01:10:12,200 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 5: think it's gonna be tough for him to clear six receptions,

1493
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:19,160
Speaker 5: So I think I'm eyeing their receptions props specifically. Again,

1494
01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:21,760
Speaker 5: this is Cooper cups offense. He's he's such a target hog.

1495
01:10:21,800 --> 01:10:24,719
Speaker 5: It could be even more extreme in the Super Bowl.

1496
01:10:24,720 --> 01:10:26,720
Speaker 5: So I think that, yeah, it's a good time to

1497
01:10:26,800 --> 01:10:30,679
Speaker 5: kind of like sell high on Beckham just because his

1498
01:10:30,840 --> 01:10:32,880
Speaker 5: market's pretty inflated here. So I think I will be

1499
01:10:33,000 --> 01:10:34,599
Speaker 5: on the under on Beckham here.

1500
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, i'vet at four point seven receptions. That's a good call.

1501
01:10:37,960 --> 01:10:40,559
Speaker 3: So like even if you bump, you say, you say, really,

1502
01:10:40,560 --> 01:10:43,920
Speaker 3: the media is probably closer to four and a half yep,

1503
01:10:44,479 --> 01:10:46,120
Speaker 3: five at most, and.

1504
01:10:46,120 --> 01:10:48,160
Speaker 2: We're still winning that bet. So yeah, that's a good call.

1505
01:10:48,400 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 5: And just a half a reception in this range is

1506
01:10:51,640 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 5: it's massive, So even though it's minus one forty five its,

1507
01:10:54,560 --> 01:10:58,840
Speaker 5: it's probably worth maybe like minus one eighty given our projections.

1508
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:01,080
Speaker 5: So yeah, the value we're getting there.

1509
01:11:02,439 --> 01:11:04,720
Speaker 2: One more interesting one. So this went up while we

1510
01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:07,360
Speaker 2: were recording, so I have to throw this in here.

1511
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:10,559
Speaker 3: When I looked at Jamar Chase's rushing prop a few

1512
01:11:10,760 --> 01:11:12,840
Speaker 3: you know, as we started the show, it was three

1513
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:13,320
Speaker 3: and a half.

1514
01:11:13,920 --> 01:11:16,960
Speaker 2: It's now up to four and a half at vet MGM.

1515
01:11:17,800 --> 01:11:21,599
Speaker 3: I know we both do project our rushing numbers even

1516
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:22,800
Speaker 3: four wide receivers.

1517
01:11:24,040 --> 01:11:27,280
Speaker 2: Where are you Jamar Chase rushing yardage.

1518
01:11:28,520 --> 01:11:31,639
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I it's probably gonna be four, exactly right,

1519
01:11:31,680 --> 01:11:35,000
Speaker 5: So I have him one rush attempt projecting for one

1520
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:37,760
Speaker 5: rush attempt. I mean, it's a Super Bowl, so maybe

1521
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:40,599
Speaker 5: they draw up a couple rush attempt So if anything,

1522
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:41,880
Speaker 5: I would lean on the over here.

1523
01:11:42,640 --> 01:11:43,719
Speaker 4: But given he's.

1524
01:11:43,560 --> 01:11:47,479
Speaker 5: Gonna see one rush attempt, let's say he's averaging four

1525
01:11:47,520 --> 01:11:50,240
Speaker 5: point eight yards and attempt this year, so he's basically

1526
01:11:50,400 --> 01:11:53,479
Speaker 5: running back, and the median for running back per attempt

1527
01:11:53,520 --> 01:11:57,360
Speaker 5: is about three and a half. So I, now there's

1528
01:11:57,400 --> 01:11:59,320
Speaker 5: been you said it was at three and a half,

1529
01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:00,880
Speaker 5: and that's four and a half. I'd probably lean on

1530
01:12:00,920 --> 01:12:04,920
Speaker 5: the under here just because it's like four is probably

1531
01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:07,120
Speaker 5: the mode on this, Like it's most likely going to

1532
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:09,360
Speaker 5: be four. So I like the over three and a

1533
01:12:09,400 --> 01:12:11,040
Speaker 5: half in under four and a half, that's how close

1534
01:12:11,080 --> 01:12:11,840
Speaker 5: my production is.

1535
01:12:12,600 --> 01:12:15,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tough because so here's what I noticed, and

1536
01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:16,680
Speaker 3: I have it right at four and a half is

1537
01:12:16,720 --> 01:12:19,439
Speaker 3: like the median, So I'm kind of torn. I would

1538
01:12:19,439 --> 01:12:22,120
Speaker 3: have gone over at three and a half. But five

1539
01:12:22,160 --> 01:12:24,360
Speaker 3: games in the regular season he had a rush attempt.

1540
01:12:24,479 --> 01:12:27,800
Speaker 3: He's had a rush attempt in every postseason game, including

1541
01:12:28,479 --> 01:12:31,800
Speaker 3: three rush attempts in the wild card. However, he had

1542
01:12:31,840 --> 01:12:36,040
Speaker 3: one in the Divisional and one in the Conference championship,

1543
01:12:36,040 --> 01:12:38,320
Speaker 3: and both of them went under four and a half,

1544
01:12:38,360 --> 01:12:39,880
Speaker 3: so they it was a two yard run and a

1545
01:12:39,880 --> 01:12:42,240
Speaker 3: three yard run, so it's really tricky. I think it's

1546
01:12:42,280 --> 01:12:44,120
Speaker 3: a good line. I think it's warrant. I think three

1547
01:12:44,160 --> 01:12:45,800
Speaker 3: and a half was too easy, though. I think I

1548
01:12:45,800 --> 01:12:47,760
Speaker 3: think there's a really good chance he gets one and

1549
01:12:47,800 --> 01:12:50,360
Speaker 3: probably at this point better than a fifty to fifty

1550
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:52,880
Speaker 3: pence he gets two, So I think I think it

1551
01:12:52,960 --> 01:12:55,479
Speaker 3: was smart to bump it up over what the average

1552
01:12:55,520 --> 01:12:57,519
Speaker 3: you know, rushing attempt for him is probably going to be.

1553
01:12:58,680 --> 01:13:01,080
Speaker 3: So so yeah, I think it's a line. But you know,

1554
01:13:01,120 --> 01:13:02,599
Speaker 3: if you can maybe find a three and a half

1555
01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:05,160
Speaker 3: out there, oh yeah, I think that would be Again,

1556
01:13:05,360 --> 01:13:08,320
Speaker 3: as you always say, one yard is worth a massive

1557
01:13:08,439 --> 01:13:10,760
Speaker 3: amount of value in in a market like this when

1558
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:13,360
Speaker 3: you know it's like the difference between three and four.

1559
01:13:13,520 --> 01:13:15,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, market like this is probably worth like twenty percent.

1560
01:13:16,160 --> 01:13:18,439
Speaker 5: So that's why I can go from liking the over

1561
01:13:18,840 --> 01:13:21,679
Speaker 5: to the under just by one yard, So it's massive. Yeah,

1562
01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:23,400
Speaker 5: if you can get a three and a half out there,

1563
01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:24,479
Speaker 5: I would definitely take the over.

1564
01:13:25,720 --> 01:13:28,160
Speaker 3: Okay, and then and then one more question for you

1565
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:30,760
Speaker 3: on player props before we jump into some little more

1566
01:13:30,760 --> 01:13:31,800
Speaker 3: exotic props.

1567
01:13:32,040 --> 01:13:32,160
Speaker 5: Uh.

1568
01:13:32,840 --> 01:13:36,320
Speaker 3: These kind of versus battles here where it's like one

1569
01:13:36,360 --> 01:13:40,960
Speaker 3: player versus another, anything stick out to you in those markets? Uh?

1570
01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:43,519
Speaker 5: The one that does stick out is probably the Joe

1571
01:13:43,560 --> 01:13:47,679
Speaker 5: Mixon minus one thirty versus Cam Akers. I mean, both

1572
01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:50,280
Speaker 5: backs have identical projections. If you look at the market,

1573
01:13:50,320 --> 01:13:53,839
Speaker 5: they're right around, you know, sixty two and half three yards. However,

1574
01:13:54,040 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 5: you know we've already talked about it. Samajp Ran and

1575
01:13:56,439 --> 01:13:58,880
Speaker 5: Chris Evans might not even get a carry in this game.

1576
01:13:59,720 --> 01:14:02,040
Speaker 5: So Joe Mixon has a very high floor. He's going

1577
01:14:02,120 --> 01:14:04,439
Speaker 5: to get pretty much every single rush attempt out of

1578
01:14:04,439 --> 01:14:06,759
Speaker 5: the backfield. Whereas cam Akers, you know, he has Sony

1579
01:14:06,840 --> 01:14:10,640
Speaker 5: Michelle behind him, Darryl Henderson's back. Maybe they give him

1580
01:14:10,680 --> 01:14:13,280
Speaker 5: a carry, but just cam Akers says, a little bit

1581
01:14:13,360 --> 01:14:16,200
Speaker 5: lower of a floor. So a market like this, where

1582
01:14:16,200 --> 01:14:18,439
Speaker 5: it's head to head, I'm going to lean Joe Mixon

1583
01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:21,719
Speaker 5: all the way. So I do like him minus one thirty. However,

1584
01:14:21,840 --> 01:14:25,599
Speaker 5: there's the other market where who will lead the game

1585
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:28,479
Speaker 5: in rushing yards? You can get a guy like Cam Akers,

1586
01:14:28,520 --> 01:14:31,280
Speaker 5: who probably has a higher stealing at plus one ten.

1587
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:34,840
Speaker 5: So depending on which guy you like, you would have

1588
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:36,599
Speaker 5: to you know, pick and choose the market. So if

1589
01:14:36,600 --> 01:14:40,160
Speaker 5: you do like Acres, attack the market where you know

1590
01:14:40,200 --> 01:14:41,880
Speaker 5: you can get him to lead the game in rushing

1591
01:14:42,280 --> 01:14:44,960
Speaker 5: because again, the rams are favored, He's he's more likely

1592
01:14:45,000 --> 01:14:47,320
Speaker 5: to get you know, twenty plus rush attempts. But I

1593
01:14:47,320 --> 01:14:50,080
Speaker 5: think the head to head battle, the higher floor is

1594
01:14:50,120 --> 01:14:51,960
Speaker 5: going to win every time. So give me Joe Mixon

1595
01:14:52,000 --> 01:14:53,439
Speaker 5: at minus one thirty in that matchup.

1596
01:14:54,160 --> 01:14:56,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that call too, Like go Acres for

1597
01:14:57,040 --> 01:14:59,679
Speaker 3: like a longer shot. But just in terms of betting

1598
01:14:59,720 --> 01:15:02,479
Speaker 3: on their medians, I think Mixing has a clear edge

1599
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:04,800
Speaker 3: because yeah, I have him for about like eighty six

1600
01:15:04,880 --> 01:15:07,120
Speaker 3: percent of the backfield carries, where Akers I have him

1601
01:15:07,120 --> 01:15:09,040
Speaker 3: closer to sixty eight percent. So that's like a twenty

1602
01:15:09,040 --> 01:15:11,640
Speaker 3: percent difference. And you know carries you're just gonna kind

1603
01:15:11,680 --> 01:15:14,240
Speaker 3: of stay four yards of carry, give or take, you know, regardless,

1604
01:15:14,240 --> 01:15:18,280
Speaker 3: So well the maybe three yards right, Yeah, yeah, yeah,

1605
01:15:18,280 --> 01:15:20,760
Speaker 3: I do lean under on the rushing yardage props. I

1606
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 3: should say that not the most fun thing to bet,

1607
01:15:24,200 --> 01:15:26,400
Speaker 3: you know, I'll stick with my p Ryan under here

1608
01:15:26,479 --> 01:15:29,200
Speaker 3: get the rushing plus receiving, but I will say that

1609
01:15:29,240 --> 01:15:32,040
Speaker 3: I am leaning under on both of the on the

1610
01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:33,000
Speaker 3: running backs as well.

1611
01:15:33,600 --> 01:15:34,639
Speaker 2: All right, so we'll.

1612
01:15:34,439 --> 01:15:36,759
Speaker 3: Close out with some exotic props, but just want to recap.

1613
01:15:37,479 --> 01:15:39,840
Speaker 3: Sean likes Joe Burrow over two hundred and seventy one

1614
01:15:39,880 --> 01:15:42,400
Speaker 3: and a half passing yards, T Higgins over sixty seven

1615
01:15:42,439 --> 01:15:46,840
Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards, and Joe Mixon to have

1616
01:15:46,960 --> 01:15:50,680
Speaker 3: more yardage on the ground than Cam Akers at minus

1617
01:15:51,080 --> 01:15:54,600
Speaker 3: one thirty. I like Matthew Stafford under five and a

1618
01:15:54,640 --> 01:15:57,560
Speaker 3: half rushing yards and Joe Mixon over sixteen and a

1619
01:15:57,600 --> 01:16:01,840
Speaker 3: half rushing attempts. We're both pretty much in line with

1620
01:16:02,400 --> 01:16:05,720
Speaker 3: Cooper Cups receiving yards total at one oh five and

1621
01:16:05,720 --> 01:16:08,840
Speaker 3: a half, a little bit under on Jamar Chase at

1622
01:16:08,880 --> 01:16:11,240
Speaker 3: seventy eight and a half, a little bit under on

1623
01:16:11,479 --> 01:16:14,280
Speaker 3: Odell Beckham at the five and a half receptions in

1624
01:16:14,320 --> 01:16:19,439
Speaker 3: the sixty four and a half yards, and probably leading

1625
01:16:20,360 --> 01:16:23,080
Speaker 3: over on Boyd and Van Jefferson, but a lot of

1626
01:16:23,160 --> 01:16:25,880
Speaker 3: variants there. And Sean does like the under on Jefferson's

1627
01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:31,280
Speaker 3: receptions at two and a half, but more more confident

1628
01:16:31,320 --> 01:16:33,280
Speaker 3: once we get the news of exactly who's in and

1629
01:16:33,320 --> 01:16:37,920
Speaker 3: out at tight end for each team. All right, let's

1630
01:16:37,920 --> 01:16:41,920
Speaker 3: talk penalties, let's talk defense specialty, let's talk these kind

1631
01:16:41,920 --> 01:16:45,600
Speaker 3: of exotic props here, Sean, I know you do a

1632
01:16:45,640 --> 01:16:48,800
Speaker 3: lot of work on penalties. You actually told me about

1633
01:16:48,840 --> 01:16:51,599
Speaker 3: a penalty site that I didn't know existed for penalty data,

1634
01:16:51,640 --> 01:16:55,639
Speaker 3: so I was loving that. I appreciate that, But yeah,

1635
01:16:55,880 --> 01:16:57,960
Speaker 3: what do you got here in terms of penalty props?

1636
01:16:58,160 --> 01:17:02,720
Speaker 5: So yeah, the website NFL penalties dot com. And the

1637
01:17:02,760 --> 01:17:05,519
Speaker 5: first pealty prop that you should look out for is

1638
01:17:06,080 --> 01:17:08,040
Speaker 5: the first team to be penalized for p I.

1639
01:17:08,280 --> 01:17:09,280
Speaker 4: To pass interference.

1640
01:17:10,479 --> 01:17:12,280
Speaker 5: You know it's going to be a pick them at

1641
01:17:12,280 --> 01:17:14,439
Speaker 5: most books, but you know, get the Bengals at minus

1642
01:17:14,479 --> 01:17:15,360
Speaker 5: one fifteen for that.

1643
01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:17,280
Speaker 4: And the Rams.

1644
01:17:17,360 --> 01:17:21,479
Speaker 5: You know, they only committed four past interference calls all season,

1645
01:17:21,520 --> 01:17:23,080
Speaker 5: which is by far the lowest in the league, so

1646
01:17:23,120 --> 01:17:26,720
Speaker 5: they're very disciplined. I expect that to continue through the

1647
01:17:26,760 --> 01:17:29,519
Speaker 5: Super Bowl. Whereas the Bengals, you know, they're right around

1648
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:32,720
Speaker 5: league average. They had nine PI calls this season. The

1649
01:17:32,840 --> 01:17:36,280
Speaker 5: average is nine and a half on the season. So

1650
01:17:36,320 --> 01:17:39,160
Speaker 5: I think in a situation like this, give me the

1651
01:17:39,160 --> 01:17:42,200
Speaker 5: Bengals to be the first team to be palaies for

1652
01:17:42,760 --> 01:17:43,639
Speaker 5: minus one fifteen.

1653
01:17:44,800 --> 01:17:47,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean Rams are also kind of the

1654
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:49,840
Speaker 3: home team, so you know, as that whole you know

1655
01:17:49,920 --> 01:17:52,080
Speaker 3: element could come into place. So I like that one

1656
01:17:52,400 --> 01:17:53,679
Speaker 3: any other ones here for penalty?

1657
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:54,000
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1658
01:17:54,080 --> 01:17:56,840
Speaker 5: So the other one is that there won't be a

1659
01:17:57,000 --> 01:18:00,639
Speaker 5: roughing the pastor call. You know, prices are going to vary,

1660
01:18:00,640 --> 01:18:03,800
Speaker 5: but I'm looking for about minus one thirty to lock

1661
01:18:03,840 --> 01:18:07,080
Speaker 5: in here. Both teams were below average in terms of

1662
01:18:07,120 --> 01:18:11,200
Speaker 5: committing a roughing the passer penalty. The Rams only committed

1663
01:18:11,680 --> 01:18:15,000
Speaker 5: roughing the passer call on five of twenty games, and

1664
01:18:15,040 --> 01:18:17,640
Speaker 5: the Bengals only committed at roughing the passive call on

1665
01:18:17,800 --> 01:18:21,040
Speaker 5: three of twenty games. So those are pretty low compared

1666
01:18:21,080 --> 01:18:25,040
Speaker 5: to the league average. Plus the head ref of the

1667
01:18:25,280 --> 01:18:27,400
Speaker 5: Super Bowl, I think they might have a like a

1668
01:18:27,479 --> 01:18:30,320
Speaker 5: variety for the crew. But the head ref is Ron Corbert,

1669
01:18:30,960 --> 01:18:34,959
Speaker 5: who ranked thirteenth out of seventeen in terms of penalties

1670
01:18:34,960 --> 01:18:37,880
Speaker 5: per game at ten point three. So it all adds

1671
01:18:37,960 --> 01:18:41,479
Speaker 5: up to about sixty four percent chance that there won't

1672
01:18:41,479 --> 01:18:44,519
Speaker 5: be a roughing the pastor call. That was sort of

1673
01:18:44,560 --> 01:18:46,640
Speaker 5: the you know, back of the napkin math here. So

1674
01:18:47,600 --> 01:18:50,360
Speaker 5: love if you get no roughing the pastor penalty at

1675
01:18:50,360 --> 01:18:51,120
Speaker 5: minus one thirty.

1676
01:18:51,800 --> 01:18:53,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that, And I mean I think you

1677
01:18:53,960 --> 01:18:56,599
Speaker 3: worry about the Rams a little more though. I mean,

1678
01:18:56,600 --> 01:18:58,840
Speaker 3: they missed one on Stafford last week, right, so maybe

1679
01:18:58,840 --> 01:18:59,479
Speaker 3: they looking out for.

1680
01:18:59,560 --> 01:18:59,840
Speaker 4: A bit more.

1681
01:18:59,880 --> 01:19:01,760
Speaker 2: But the Bengals are just not a very penalized team.

1682
01:19:01,800 --> 01:19:04,280
Speaker 3: I believe they were the weast penalized I could be running,

1683
01:19:04,280 --> 01:19:05,200
Speaker 3: but they're among the league.

1684
01:19:05,280 --> 01:19:06,080
Speaker 2: They're not very.

1685
01:19:05,960 --> 01:19:08,920
Speaker 3: Penalized at all. Are the artist Cincinnati Bengos. So you

1686
01:19:08,920 --> 01:19:11,800
Speaker 3: don't expect them to just kind of tee off in

1687
01:19:11,840 --> 01:19:12,479
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl.

1688
01:19:13,240 --> 01:19:13,639
Speaker 4: All right.

1689
01:19:15,560 --> 01:19:18,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, Seanake's first PI for Cincinnati at minus one

1690
01:19:18,720 --> 01:19:21,519
Speaker 3: fifteen and no roughing the passer call in the game

1691
01:19:21,560 --> 01:19:25,880
Speaker 3: at minus one thirty. Let's talk about some defense and

1692
01:19:25,960 --> 01:19:28,880
Speaker 3: special teams props, Shawn, I know you had your eye

1693
01:19:29,000 --> 01:19:31,040
Speaker 3: on shortest field goal.

1694
01:19:31,800 --> 01:19:35,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I already covered the punter props again. We're

1695
01:19:35,120 --> 01:19:38,519
Speaker 5: looking for more markets there. I'll I'll have more bets

1696
01:19:38,520 --> 01:19:41,320
Speaker 5: on those potentially on Action Network dot com. But the

1697
01:19:41,760 --> 01:19:44,280
Speaker 5: the other one that stuck out to me is the

1698
01:19:44,360 --> 01:19:47,960
Speaker 5: shortest Bigal made the Lions twenty seven and a half.

1699
01:19:48,040 --> 01:19:48,479
Speaker 4: Right now.

1700
01:19:48,520 --> 01:19:51,160
Speaker 5: Of course, of course I had to run a stimulator

1701
01:19:51,200 --> 01:19:53,519
Speaker 5: on this. I got a Media and culture to thirty

1702
01:19:53,560 --> 01:19:57,120
Speaker 5: three with a seventy percent chance that this goes over.

1703
01:19:58,280 --> 01:20:01,040
Speaker 5: So and that's factoring the chance that there won't be

1704
01:20:01,160 --> 01:20:03,120
Speaker 5: a field goal in the game. In that case, you'd

1705
01:20:03,120 --> 01:20:05,760
Speaker 5: get your money back the bet would be avoided, SOY

1706
01:20:05,840 --> 01:20:07,680
Speaker 5: factor that as well. But you know, I have this

1707
01:20:07,800 --> 01:20:10,439
Speaker 5: a closer to a seventy percent chance it's over two

1708
01:20:10,920 --> 01:20:12,960
Speaker 5: really really good kickers here, But I think what's to

1709
01:20:13,040 --> 01:20:16,559
Speaker 5: get closer to the red zone. These offenses are too good,

1710
01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:19,080
Speaker 5: they'll they'll punch it in. So I have I love

1711
01:20:19,479 --> 01:20:22,040
Speaker 5: the shortest figel made going over twenty seven and a

1712
01:20:22,080 --> 01:20:27,479
Speaker 5: half yards. Love it is that it for defense, special teams. Yeah,

1713
01:20:27,520 --> 01:20:30,120
Speaker 5: that's it for now. Again, more markets could pop up,

1714
01:20:30,160 --> 01:20:33,320
Speaker 5: like you'll see combined field goal yardage. I might find

1715
01:20:33,320 --> 01:20:36,120
Speaker 5: some value there, but I have everything built and seat

1716
01:20:36,200 --> 01:20:38,080
Speaker 5: up to kind of tackle those as they pop up.

1717
01:20:39,120 --> 01:20:40,160
Speaker 4: All right, I.

1718
01:20:40,160 --> 01:20:43,960
Speaker 3: Guess we'll close it out with one last one that

1719
01:20:44,040 --> 01:20:44,639
Speaker 3: I wanted.

1720
01:20:44,439 --> 01:20:45,040
Speaker 2: To talk about.

1721
01:20:45,240 --> 01:20:47,960
Speaker 3: Curious to see if you have any opinion on this,

1722
01:20:48,080 --> 01:20:50,479
Speaker 3: But it's another toss up one, or at least it

1723
01:20:50,520 --> 01:20:54,880
Speaker 3: should be. But first team to use a challenge, so

1724
01:20:54,960 --> 01:20:57,280
Speaker 3: you were in on the time out, first team to

1725
01:20:57,280 --> 01:21:00,000
Speaker 3: call a time out with McVeigh.

1726
01:21:00,280 --> 01:21:02,799
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on first to use a coaches challenge?

1727
01:21:03,280 --> 01:21:06,839
Speaker 5: I have no thoughts whatsoever. Again, these are markets I

1728
01:21:06,960 --> 01:21:09,160
Speaker 5: rarely tackle, but I thought there was an edge with

1729
01:21:09,200 --> 01:21:09,719
Speaker 5: the timeout.

1730
01:21:10,200 --> 01:21:12,240
Speaker 4: I'm guessing you do have an edge for this on that.

1731
01:21:12,600 --> 01:21:15,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, just based on the numbers. Since Dak

1732
01:21:15,160 --> 01:21:19,080
Speaker 3: Taylor came into the league, he has twenty two challenges

1733
01:21:19,120 --> 01:21:22,439
Speaker 3: to Sean mcvay's sixteen in regular season games to give

1734
01:21:22,439 --> 01:21:24,640
Speaker 3: it even playing field. So that's I mean, that's a

1735
01:21:24,640 --> 01:21:27,719
Speaker 3: pretty big difference, you know, over a three year period.

1736
01:21:28,160 --> 01:21:30,080
Speaker 3: So that's how I was laughing because I'm like, Sean

1737
01:21:30,160 --> 01:21:32,640
Speaker 3: McVay manages to burn all these time out He's not

1738
01:21:32,680 --> 01:21:35,120
Speaker 3: even a guy that like challenges a ton, Right, So

1739
01:21:35,760 --> 01:21:39,080
Speaker 3: I think Cincinnati is a solid bet, you know, minus

1740
01:21:39,120 --> 01:21:42,000
Speaker 3: one fifteen, kind of a fun one here that you

1741
01:21:42,040 --> 01:21:44,720
Speaker 3: have better better than the odds chance of hitting here,

1742
01:21:44,920 --> 01:21:49,080
Speaker 3: just given that, you know, Taylor's been much more likely

1743
01:21:49,120 --> 01:21:54,880
Speaker 3: to challenge than has McVeigh. So yeah, first coaches challenge,

1744
01:21:55,120 --> 01:21:58,640
Speaker 3: Dak Taylor, first time out, Sean McVay, how we're doing it?

1745
01:21:59,040 --> 01:22:00,640
Speaker 4: Love it all?

1746
01:22:00,720 --> 01:22:04,400
Speaker 3: Right? Dad is going to do it for our Super

1747
01:22:04,400 --> 01:22:10,839
Speaker 3: Bowl fifty six Propapalooza episode Odds courtesy of bet MGM.

1748
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:14,120
Speaker 3: You can find all of our betting content for the

1749
01:22:14,160 --> 01:22:18,400
Speaker 3: Super Bowl at actionnetwork dot com and in the free,

1750
01:22:18,840 --> 01:22:22,160
Speaker 3: award winning Action Network app, which guts you track every

1751
01:22:22,240 --> 01:22:24,120
Speaker 3: bet that you make, as well as follow all the

1752
01:22:24,120 --> 01:22:27,120
Speaker 3: bets that we make, including our props. Shawn's at the

1753
01:22:27,240 --> 01:22:31,760
Speaker 3: Underscore Odds Maker, I'm at Chris Raybon R y b

1754
01:22:32,040 --> 01:22:34,680
Speaker 3: O N, and you can find us on Twitter at

1755
01:22:34,680 --> 01:22:38,360
Speaker 3: those same handles. Be sure to leave us a five

1756
01:22:38,400 --> 01:22:42,200
Speaker 3: star rating review on Apple or Spotify. Stuck and I

1757
01:22:42,240 --> 01:22:44,760
Speaker 3: will be back next week at the regular time to

1758
01:22:44,840 --> 01:22:47,840
Speaker 3: break down the Super Bowl and give our final Super

1759
01:22:47,840 --> 01:22:51,519
Speaker 3: Bowl six pack, so stay tuned for that. Also check

1760
01:22:51,520 --> 01:22:53,600
Speaker 3: out the Favorites podcast Shawn and I will be on

1761
01:22:53,680 --> 01:22:56,080
Speaker 3: to talk more props, and also be sure to check

1762
01:22:56,120 --> 01:22:58,960
Speaker 3: out the Favorites podcast. Shawn and I will be on

1763
01:22:59,000 --> 01:23:01,200
Speaker 3: that to talk more prop as well.

1764
01:23:01,920 --> 01:23:03,719
Speaker 2: Until next time, let's get this money