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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out job. I'm sitting it to cash. Stop. That's all.

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Speaker 3: We'll see the most gambles when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate kaba you want to pull, and we are on

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Speaker 3: the way once if everybody, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 3: Week one betting preview for a six consecutive season, we

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Speaker 3: will build our Sunday six pack of best bets with

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Speaker 3: the help of my co host, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 3: Degenerate Nation, a man who went sixty three percent against

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Speaker 3: the spread on his picks last year, stucky stuck. Welcome

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Speaker 3: to Week one. Good to be back with you. How

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Speaker 3: you feeling, Yeah, feeling great.

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Speaker 4: I'm in gotime now Like NFL's here, we're in the grind.

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Speaker 4: I'm feeling feeling nice and refreshed.

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Speaker 3: If you're new here, welcome and let's lock in. If

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Speaker 3: you're back longtime listener, we appreciate you. Thanks for tuning

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Speaker 3: in again. We'll get it rocking with the Thursday night

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Speaker 3: football game. Then we'll hop right in to our Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack. And before we get into the games, just

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Speaker 3: a reminder our friends Chad and Simon over at the

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Speaker 3: Favorites podcast, they brought back their free one hundred thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars NFL Pick Them contest. Totally free to sign up

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Speaker 3: at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot Com. Just five picks against

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Speaker 3: the spread every week, so top ten finishers get huge

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Speaker 3: cash prizes, including a forty k first place prize. Cash

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Speaker 3: prizes each and every week over one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 3: up for grabs. Again, totally free to play. Sign up

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Speaker 3: and make your weak one picks right now, favorite that

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Speaker 3: Action network dot com.

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Speaker 4: It's relevant I should set up Week one. As of late,

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Speaker 4: unders have ruled the day in Week one over the

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Speaker 4: past few years. I think part of that is the

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Speaker 4: defenses are ahead of the offenses. Part of that is

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Speaker 4: also just more quarterbacks resting in preseason and not getting

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Speaker 4: in sync with the offense. For what it's worth, ten

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Speaker 4: teams chose to sit their quarterbacks for the entire preseason.

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Speaker 4: The Ravens are one of them, along with the Rams, Lions, Browns, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles, Jets,

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Speaker 4: Falcons and Cardinals, Lions and Rams and Cowboys and Browns

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Speaker 4: actually play each other as for the teams that did

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Speaker 4: just that, and you historically have seen quarterbacks come out

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Speaker 4: with a little bit of a rust from a production standpoint,

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Speaker 4: so keep that in mind in Week one. And also

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Speaker 4: underdogs in Week one over the past ten years have

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Speaker 4: hit it around a fifty seven percent clip. So underdogs

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Speaker 4: and unders have ruled the day of late in Week one.

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Speaker 4: Doesn't guarantee future results, doesn't mean anything going forward, but

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Speaker 4: just keep that in mind. Also want to just bring

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Speaker 4: up before we jump into the Chiefs Ravens game new

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Speaker 4: kickoff rules because I'm really excited to see, you know,

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Speaker 4: I have it modeled out for you know, a little

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Speaker 4: over a point uptick in scoring. It was the preseasons.

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Speaker 4: You're not going to see anything really innovative or unique.

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Speaker 4: So I'm curious to see teams like the Ravens who

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Speaker 4: are always ahead of the curve from a special team's perspective,

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Speaker 4: with John Harball his background being a special teams coach,

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Speaker 4: I'm curious to see what new wrinkles and show up

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Speaker 4: and win. But any any thoughts for I share mine

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Speaker 4: on the new kickoff rules and their impact.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I agree. When I kind of threw it

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Speaker 3: into my numbers, equated to about a point or maybe

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Speaker 3: like point nine or something like that. And that's in

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Speaker 3: the scoring. What I gathered over the three weeks of

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Speaker 3: the preseason, it was about a two yard difference in

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Speaker 3: field position, and that's going against other preseasons just for consistency.

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Speaker 4: And then if hey, there's just a huge emphasis on

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Speaker 4: this penalty, right, and then what that does, and sometimes

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Speaker 4: that's just a short term effect because then the league

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Speaker 4: just hey, forgets about it. It's just a thing early

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Speaker 4: in the season.

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Speaker 3: One other thing I think kind of affects it a

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Speaker 3: little is one two personnel is starting to come in

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Speaker 3: vogue again, which means two tight ends on the field

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Speaker 3: that can be more efficient. But I also feel like

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Speaker 3: it's it limits explosives a little bit. You know. That's

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Speaker 3: also something to kind of monitor. And I think the

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Speaker 3: raven that's a good segue into the Ravens because something

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Speaker 3: has to change with their offense. I mean, Monk is

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Speaker 3: probably on the hot seat a little more than people think.

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Speaker 3: But that said, let's jump into Thursday night.

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Speaker 5: It's not the best game but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 5: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: The opener, once again, it's the Chiefs because they keep

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Speaker 3: winning Super Bowls. Baltimore at case the Chiefs three point favorites.

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Speaker 3: The total is forty seven. Stuck. You're always locked in

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Speaker 3: on the Baltimore Ravens. That's your squad. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: let you carry here. How do you see this one?

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Speaker 3: The rematch playing out?

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Speaker 4: Fascinating game, obviously a rematch of the AFC Championship game

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Speaker 4: where Todd Munkin had that head scratching game plan. I'm

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Speaker 4: super curious to see how the Ravens play this. I

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Speaker 4: would assume just you got Derrick Henry. You have questions

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Speaker 4: along the offensive line, right, you lost three starters. You

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Speaker 4: have a number of rookies you're going to be relying on.

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Speaker 4: You're in a hostile environment. The Chief's weakness is still

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Speaker 4: their run defense. You have Lamar Jackson in his legs.

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Speaker 4: He might feel a little rusty throwing the ball. I

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Speaker 4: imagine you got to come out here, line up, just

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Speaker 4: run the ball with Lamar. Go to more two tight

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Speaker 4: end sets, which I think you'll see this season, assuming

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Speaker 4: likely and Andrews both stay healthy. So yeah, I expect

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Speaker 4: the Ravens to go with a heavier rush attack, much

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Speaker 4: more obviously than the AFC Championship game. But maybe a

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Speaker 4: monk in overthinks it and they just say, now, that's

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Speaker 4: what the Chiefs are gonna think. So I'm so curious

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Speaker 4: to watch that. But I think you got Derrick Henry,

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Speaker 4: you have Lamar Jackson, his likes, hostile environment, offensive line questions.

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Speaker 4: I think you got to lean on that run game early.

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Speaker 4: You know that Steve Spagnola is going to chest this

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Speaker 4: offensive line off. His line is a strength last year,

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Speaker 4: and he blitz them and blitz them and blitz them

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Speaker 4: in that AFC Championship game. You can expect that again

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Speaker 4: on the other side of the ball when the Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: they also have offensive line questions. You know, rookie starting

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Speaker 4: a one tackle spot. Other tackle spot was iffy last

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Speaker 4: year in tier obviously is elite. No Hollywood Brown here

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Speaker 4: is worth mentioning. I don't think the Ravens are gonna

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Speaker 4: blitz much. You don't blitz Mahomes and I just don't

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Speaker 4: think they're going to be a heavy blitz team. I

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Speaker 4: expect the Ravens to come out with a good game plan.

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Speaker 4: They're always well prepared off of rast season openers. John

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Speaker 4: Holbro's twelve and four against the spread and season openers.

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Speaker 4: He's the most profitable coach in the NFL in that department.

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Speaker 4: So Yeah, I think that this game is probably going

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Speaker 4: to start out pretty slow. I think the Ravens are

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Speaker 4: going to lean on the run, but I think the

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Speaker 4: Ravens are going to try to keep everything in front

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Speaker 4: of them. So I think this game is good a

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Speaker 4: feeling out process early on, and so I don't hate

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Speaker 4: like a look at the first half under. I also

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Speaker 4: don't hate teasing the Ravens. I think this line it's

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Speaker 4: at two and a half juiced heavily at some places.

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Speaker 4: If you wanted to tease this up to eight and

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Speaker 4: a half, and we'll talk about other teaser pieces later,

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Speaker 4: I don't mind that. I think it should be a

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Speaker 4: really good game teasing the Ravens up and lean under

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Speaker 4: maybe more of a preference to first half under.

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Speaker 2: What do you say?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this game, to me is the least bettable game

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Speaker 3: on the slate, especially a game like this a Thursday

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Speaker 3: night game. There's gonna be there's so much action on it.

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Speaker 3: The markets are usually gonna be really sharp. And if

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Speaker 3: you actually go into action labs and look at, you know,

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Speaker 3: the cover rates for example, for underdogs, which we you know,

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Speaker 3: tend to be profitable, like Sunday one PM, that's where

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Speaker 3: they tend to be highest. These primetime games, I just

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Speaker 3: think they're a lot sharper and there's a lot less

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Speaker 3: edges on them. So in general, if you're trying to

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Speaker 3: really be profitable, a game like this is not a

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Speaker 3: game like you need to be betting or feel like

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Speaker 3: you have to make a bet on And you know,

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Speaker 3: I know I say that as a person that works

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Speaker 3: for a betting company, but it's true.

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Speaker 4: If you're just looking for a small bet on Thursday

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Speaker 4: and Friday, I don't mind pairing the Packers and the

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Speaker 4: Ravens in a teaser for your Thursday and Friday games,

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Speaker 4: getting both of those dogs up to over eight points.

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Speaker 3: Mahomes favored by three or less or an underdog twenty

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Speaker 3: three and eight seventy four percent against the spread. Lamar

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Speaker 3: as a dog dominant twelve and one against the spread.

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Speaker 3: It's just strength on strength here. When you're trying to

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Speaker 3: be great, it's gonna be negativity. But you know they

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Speaker 3: hated Jesus and I'm not Jesus, so I don't really

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Speaker 3: to worry about it. Let's jump to Friday night football,

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Speaker 3: Packers Eagles in Brazil. Eagles favored by two and a half.

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Speaker 3: The total is forty nine. I'll have a write up

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Speaker 3: on this, and you know, from my vantage point, I

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Speaker 3: lean Packers here. The Eagles did take some sharp money,

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Speaker 3: so that's interesting. I do think the Eagles will be

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Speaker 3: a lot better this year too. But I really really

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Speaker 3: like what I saw out of Jordan Love last year,

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Speaker 3: especially over that second half of the season and into

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. This Packer team was playing really well against

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Speaker 3: tough competition. Love, you know, I think he threw five

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Speaker 3: picks in the second half and playoffs combined. This is

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Speaker 3: just a team on the rise. And then the Eagles,

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Speaker 3: you know, they still have their issues in the secondary,

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Speaker 3: but they addressed those with some draft picks. It really

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Speaker 3: comes down to me, how quick is this offense for

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Speaker 3: Philly gonna get fixed with Kellen Moore because they couldn't

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Speaker 3: really pick up a blitz last year. And the Packers,

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Speaker 3: their defense is gonna look different, you know. They Joe

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Speaker 3: Barry was fired and Jeff Hafley. You know they have

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Speaker 3: a new defensive coordinator. Now, I think Barry was just

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Speaker 3: additioned by some traction. So I think there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of upside with this Packer team. What do you see

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Speaker 3: for this game?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, for what it's worth the floor, it's been very

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Speaker 4: successful in Green Bays an underdog. I think he's twenty

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Speaker 4: two to ten in that spot, covering by about four

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Speaker 4: points per game. Also very successful early in the year,

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Speaker 4: first three weeks of the season, thirteen and two against

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Speaker 4: the spread. On the flip side, Jalen Hurts not been

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Speaker 4: great as a favorite away from home six fourteen and

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Speaker 4: one against this at least twenty years, he's the fourth

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Speaker 4: least profitable quarterback in that department. And yeah, you mentioned

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Speaker 4: the defenses. I think it's a good place to start

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Speaker 4: because you're gonna have two defenses that look completely different.

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Speaker 4: Add some variance into this game, which is going to

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Speaker 4: be in Brazil. It's going to be hot. That adds

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Speaker 4: some variants too, it's gonna be super hot there and travel.

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Speaker 4: How does all that play into this? It adds some variants.

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Speaker 4: But the defense is you're gonna have a Vic Fangio defense, right,

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Speaker 4: That's usually complex, takes some time. You got to get

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Speaker 4: pressure up front, you got to win your one on

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Speaker 4: one battles. It's not going to be a ton of blitzing.

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Speaker 4: And the Eagles do have some players on the defensive

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Speaker 4: line backers on paper of a pretty good offensive line.

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Speaker 4: We'll see how that right guard position shakes out. If

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Speaker 4: it's Jordan Morgan, the rookie who played left tackle in college,

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Speaker 4: or Sean Ryan. They might even rotate, as they did

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Speaker 4: sometimes last year. Right guard position for the Eagles looks

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Speaker 4: like it's going to be Mickai Becton, So that position

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Speaker 4: for both teams I'm actually looking out for. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: so the Eagles are, is there defense going to be

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Speaker 4: in sync against these Packers? Offense has all these weapons

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Speaker 4: and we're gonna see Quinya Mitchell most likely in the slot.

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Speaker 4: Isaiah Rodgers sealing with a bit of a hand injury.

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Speaker 4: Expect him to probably be out there, but he's probably

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Speaker 4: gonna start the second cornerback spot opposite Darius Slay. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I do have some questions on the back end of

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Speaker 4: that Eagles defense. Devin White, their linebacker, will be out

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Speaker 4: for this game, so yeah, questions there. Then, questions on

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Speaker 4: the Packers defense, it's a one to eighty shift in

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Speaker 4: what they're doing. They're gonna under Jeff Hathley much more aggressive,

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Speaker 4: four man front. You're gonna see more man, more quarters coverage.

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Speaker 4: I think that does fit their personnel better overall. But

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Speaker 4: it's not only a one eighty ship, you know, schematically,

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Speaker 4: it's also just mindset wise, like going from like the

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Speaker 4: Joe Barry like Ben don't break to we're gonna be aggressive.

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Speaker 4: I think the line is a little for a neutral field,

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Speaker 4: a little giving a little bit too much love for

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Speaker 4: the Eagles. Eagles got a ton of love all off

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Speaker 4: season in every market, and I think it's on too

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Speaker 4: far in every market, including this one flat three. I

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Speaker 4: would lean Packers and potentially play them, but I don't

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Speaker 4: mind a teaser here as well. But the one thing

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Speaker 4: I will mention with teasers is I don't go crazy

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Speaker 4: with teasers early in the year.

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Speaker 2: Because there is added variance.

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Speaker 4: And do you want to tease teams across you know,

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Speaker 4: three and seven either direction? But you're getting the most

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Speaker 4: value when there's less variance, right, So lower total games

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Speaker 4: and maybe later in the season when the market's more efficient.

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Speaker 4: That's when teasers even have more value. But I don't

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Speaker 4: mind here. Look you want some Thursday Friday action, I'm

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Speaker 4: probably gonna do it myself. This is after Raybon just

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Speaker 4: gave a lecture and you don't have to bet it,

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Speaker 4: But you want a teaser for Thursday Friday. We were

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Speaker 4: crossing three and seven with the Packers. Are show a

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Speaker 4: little bit of value on in the raven, So I

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Speaker 4: think we'll keep it with the one possession, fine with it,

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Speaker 4: but I should be a good game. Both these games

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Speaker 4: are awesome ways to start the season.

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Speaker 3: The Packers really are the only side on this one,

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Speaker 3: just because it's a neutral field, right, So the Eagles

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Speaker 3: are favored by two and a half. It touched three

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Speaker 3: at certain points. Maybe you can get a juice up three.

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Speaker 3: I'm actually considering just playing a juice up three for

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Speaker 3: the Packers because, first of all, one point, you know,

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Speaker 3: for people newer to the show, just kind of wondering

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Speaker 3: how we do this one point? You know, the difference

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Speaker 3: there is a lot bigger than you might think. So

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Speaker 3: on paper, I don't I don't make the Packers more

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Speaker 3: than about a point little over a point worse than

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Speaker 3: the Eagles. So look out for my right up on

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Speaker 3: Action network dot com and in the app. Packers are

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Speaker 3: the side for me in this spot.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Eagles, by the way, look at ad market. Not

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Speaker 4: as efficient lower limits, but Eagles look at market. Four

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Speaker 4: point favorites at home next week against Atlanta. You're gonna

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Speaker 4: tell me that three point favorites in the neutral field

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Speaker 4: against the Packers. That doesn't shot out to me. So yeah, three,

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Speaker 4: it's it's Packers are nothing.

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Speaker 3: The trends lean under primetime unders forty nine or higher

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Speaker 3: since two thousand and five, fifty eight percent. And then

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Speaker 3: Ron Torbert will be the referen the last four seasons

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Speaker 3: unders in games he's rapped thirty nine and twenty two

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Speaker 3: sixty four percent. So I would stay away from the total.

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Speaker 3: I think if you're looking for playing this game, it's

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Speaker 3: the Packers. Either you tease them up or you just

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Speaker 3: play them outright, play them on the money line if

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Speaker 3: you want. It's a neutral field, so I don't think

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Speaker 3: you're losing much of an edge there.

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Speaker 5: That's it.

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Speaker 6: That's the one.

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Speaker 7: Just keep a trickle lating the ball down the field, boys.

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Speaker 3: Keep negotiating that ball right down the field boys. All right,

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Speaker 3: if you're new here, our Sunday six Pack record speaks

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Speaker 3: for itself. You know, you can go and look at

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Speaker 3: all the picks in the Action Network app. They are

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Speaker 3: tracked under the Sunday six Pack account if you go

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Speaker 3: to the follow tab. All right, let's get into.

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Speaker 6: It Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: For a refresher. We keep score stuck he as a

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Speaker 3: chant last year. I took it the year before. Two

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Speaker 3: points for each of our first two picks, one point

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Speaker 3: for the third pick. We also get another point of

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Speaker 3: the total, which we'll do in the next section, and

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Speaker 3: then if you sweep the six pack, you also get

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Speaker 3: a bonus point. So that's how we keep score clean

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Speaker 3: slate for this year. You won last year, which means

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Speaker 3: you get the first pick. We do a draft back

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Speaker 3: and forth for our picks, so I can pick the

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Speaker 3: opposite side, but I can't pick his same pick. So

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Speaker 3: that's how that's kind of the rules. With that being said,

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Speaker 3: where you're going with your number one pick of the

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty four Week one Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: For my first pick of the twenty twenty four Week

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Speaker 4: one Sunday six Pack, I'm going with the Carolina Panthers

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Speaker 4: Carolina Panthers plus four against the New Orleans Saints. What

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Speaker 4: better way to start off the twenty twenty four Sunday

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Speaker 4: six Pack season than by betting on the Panthers, who

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Speaker 4: never let in the fourth quarter last year. But how

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Speaker 4: I approached Week one for a lot of my bets

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Speaker 4: is looking for some good dog spots, the dogs that

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Speaker 4: could be undervalued. I'm also just betting on my convictions

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Speaker 4: and things that I felt during the off season. And

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Speaker 4: my first win total bet from our preseason podcast before

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Speaker 4: the draft was the only one I met early was

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Speaker 4: the Panthers over win total, and I think they're going

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Speaker 4: to be significantly improved. Bryce Young can't be any worse

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Speaker 4: than last year, but I expect a much better performance,

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Speaker 4: especially since this supporting cast is better. Upgrade the offensive

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Speaker 4: line at both guard spots, upgrade the wide receiver position

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Speaker 4: by bringing in Deontay Johnson, drafting Xavier Laguette from South Carono.

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Speaker 4: I actually really like defensively, little bit of a talent drain,

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Speaker 4: but I trust Everell their defensive coordinator. You know, Fangio

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Speaker 4: Tree more Cover three heavy, but just always well schooled,

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Speaker 4: well schemed. We'll see if they can generate a pressure.

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Speaker 4: I saw that Chase on got the released today. They

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Speaker 4: got to find another edge guy opposite of clowning. It's

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Speaker 4: a major question mark, and that's really what I'm looking

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Speaker 4: for in this game, because I do think that they'll

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Speaker 4: be able to generate some pressure, only because the Saints'

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Speaker 4: offensive line is just a mess, and I think that's

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Speaker 4: the one unit that is significantly weaker on both teams

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Speaker 4: from last year. Right now, rookie left tackle kicking your

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Speaker 4: left tackle and Trevor Penning over to right tackle. He

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Speaker 4: looks like he's just not built for the NFL in

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Speaker 4: certain aspects. And we know Derek Carr under pressure, his

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Speaker 4: numbers fall off of a cliff. I will mention that

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Speaker 4: these two teams who have gone under seven straight times,

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Speaker 4: and these teams have in those meetings, they've averaged thirty

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Speaker 4: two points per game. But I do think both offenses

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Speaker 4: will be more modern and professional looking. They were two

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Speaker 4: of the they rent two of the lowest rates of

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Speaker 4: both pre stap motion and play action last year. Coordinator changes,

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Speaker 4: I think you're going to see more of both, which

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Speaker 4: will be helpful to both quarterbacks, especially bright Down. I

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Speaker 4: think you're going to see him get outside the pocket more,

355
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Speaker 4: get him moving kind of to compensate for his lack

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Speaker 4: of height. Just to throw some trends in here, I'd

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Speaker 4: like to use trends when they're actually applicable to what

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Speaker 4: I'm looking for, And in this case, I think the

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Speaker 4: Panthers were a little bit undervalued coming into the year

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Speaker 4: road underdogs in Week one that did not make the

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Speaker 4: playoffs last year. So a lot of times it's like, hey,

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Speaker 4: the market doesn't think they're any good. Ninety to fifty

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Speaker 4: nine and five against the spread. Matches there Titans, Panthers, Commanders, Broncos, Jaguars, Raiders, Patriots, Cardinals,

364
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Speaker 4: and Jets. You don't want to play all of them blindly,

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Speaker 4: but kind of just fits for what I'm looking for.

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Speaker 4: Divisional dogs man Week one divisional dogs sixty percent past

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Speaker 4: twenty years, seventy percent past ten years. And one of

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Speaker 4: our favorite trends that we always mentioned, Derek Carr and

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Speaker 4: Dennis Allen as favorites, not had much success. Dennis Allen

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Speaker 4: eight and sixteen against the spread as a favorite. Derek

371
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Speaker 4: Carr has a favorite of more than a field goal,

372
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Speaker 4: right around thirty percent against the spread. Sample size close

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Speaker 4: to thirty games.

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Speaker 3: Oh no, we suck again.

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Speaker 4: So I like the Panthers to keep this close. Just

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Speaker 4: give me Carolin a plus four.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I love everything about this pick. This would have

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Speaker 3: been my first if you didn't take it. So congratu.

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Speaker 4: You say now, you say now, But it's the Panthers.

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Speaker 4: You might be the lucky one not having the Panthers

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Speaker 4: when we come back here next week.

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Speaker 3: I am known as the Panther whisper. And I also

383
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Speaker 3: bet the Panthers win total in like April or may.

384
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 3: I bet the Panthers to win this division. I just

385
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Speaker 3: think Canal is coming over from tam as the head coach.

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Speaker 3: You know it's gonna be his offense. I think it's

387
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Speaker 3: gonna be night and day schematically. But I also you

388
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Speaker 3: know you mentioned getting him out outside the pocket. They

389
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Speaker 3: also spend over one hundred million dollars on the interior

390
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Speaker 3: line Robert Hunt from Miami, who is a top six

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Speaker 3: guard created by Pro Football Focus. He got Lewis as well,

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Speaker 3: and the Saints coming to the year with just a

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Speaker 3: terrible on the other side, a terrible offensive line. Offensive

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Speaker 3: line and pressure tends to be something that is just

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Speaker 3: overlooked by the market. All year long, so I do

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Speaker 3: want to kind of get ahead of this in Week

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Speaker 3: one with the Fade and the Saints, and the fact

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Speaker 3: that it's Derek Carr and Dennis Allen is a bonus

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Speaker 3: because we might only have so many more spots to

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Speaker 3: bet against Dennis Allen. He is the odds on favorite

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Speaker 3: to be the first coach fired. We may have only

402
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Speaker 3: so many more spots to bet against Derek Carr because

403
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Speaker 3: Spencer Rattler. I think at some point, if Car struggles,

404
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Speaker 3: the crowd's going to be chanting his name. I'm already

405
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 3: starting to hear buzz from Saints fans, who, by the way,

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Speaker 3: the Athletic did a survey and the Saints are the

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Speaker 3: least optimistic fan base, so like usually you're kind of hey,

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Speaker 3: Saints fans, like, I know your team is kind of mediocre,

409
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Speaker 3: but like, yeah, y'all suck, like you just got to

410
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Speaker 3: blow it up. But like they already know that, so

411
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 3: they're gonna be pining for Rattler. If Car struggles at all,

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Speaker 3: it checks down a million times to Alvin Kamara and

413
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Speaker 3: then overthrows Ojave eight times in a row on the

414
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Speaker 3: sideline once they get behind. So yeah, my Bowl call

415
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Speaker 3: Panthers lead wire to wire, including the entire fourth quarter.

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Speaker 3: All right, for my first pick and the second overall

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Speaker 3: the week one Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

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Speaker 3: Tennessee Titans plus four at the Chicago Bears and Chicago

419
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Speaker 3: Bears a lot of hype this year should be very improved,

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Speaker 3: but I think people are sleeping on the fact that

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00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 3: the Tennessee Titans are also going to be improved. Maybe

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Speaker 3: a lot of people wouldn't agree with or you know,

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Speaker 3: it just doesn't kind of jump off the page because

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Speaker 3: you lose Mike Rabel, who I don't necessarily agree with

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Speaker 3: that firing, but I think you brought in a good

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Speaker 3: coach in Ryan Callahan, who comes over. It was the

427
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Speaker 3: offensive coordinator with the Bengals. You upgraded the skill positions

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Speaker 3: with Tony Poward, Calvin Ridley with Tyler Boyd, and you

429
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Speaker 3: upgraded to trouble spots on the offensive line, which was

430
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 3: always your weakness with Lloyd Cushionberry, who was the top

431
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 3: ten graded center. Then you have that, you have your

432
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: draft pick who you got at number seven, who should

433
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 3: slide in at left tackle Watham. So if you know

434
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 3: there's a lot of improvement on the offense. Defensively, the

435
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: secondary was a big issue and that could take some time.

436
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,479
Speaker 3: But you did bring over a premier corner and el

437
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 3: Jarius Snead. The defense should still be solid, it could

438
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 3: even be very good. And you patched up your a

439
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 3: bunch of spots on offense, so you're giving Levis a

440
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 3: chance to succeed. And I think he can be a

441
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 3: pretty solid quarterback as long as he gets some time

442
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 3: and he's got good skill guys, which he has. So

443
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 3: like everything about with the Titans in the offseason except

444
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 3: the vable firing, you know, with the Bears, I just

445
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: think the hype has kind of gotten out of hand. They're,

446
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 3: you know, starting a rookie quarterback in game number one

447
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 3: and they're you know, already four point favorites against a

448
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 3: team that's kind of in a similar boat to them

449
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 3: team quality wise. So I like Cale Williams, like what

450
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 3: they did around him, but still have some questions about

451
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 3: the offensive line. It's still going to take a little

452
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 3: bit of time, and just historically number one picks at

453
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: quarterback have really struggled in their first games. Shouts to

454
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: our guy, Evan Abrams. He went back and looked twenty

455
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 3: seven number one pick since the merger in nineteen seventy

456
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 3: in their first start full twenty two and one straight up,

457
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 3: seven and twenty against the spread. That's twenty seven percent.

458
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 3: A lot of trends supporting the Titans, and I just

459
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 3: don't think there's a big a disparity between these two teams,

460
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,199
Speaker 3: as you know, the market does, so I'll take the

461
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 3: Titans as four point dogs on a road. Anything higher

462
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 3: than a field.

463
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 4: Goal, yeah, I like this as well. Is Hopkins?

464
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 2: Are you protecting Hawkins to be fully healthy?

465
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: I mean, when is Hopkins ever fully healthy? No, but

466
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 3: he has a chance to play. He has a chance

467
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 3: to play, BELI. Even if he doesn't, I mean, you

468
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 3: still at least you still have Ridley, And I think

469
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 3: the thing with Ridley is that you're gonna be able

470
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 3: to use him in a better man because last year

471
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 3: they had Ridley in Jacksonville playing X for some reason,

472
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 3: I don't know why. So you do have some options

473
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 3: even if he doesn't play, And actually just kind of

474
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: speaks to the way they kind of built up the

475
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 3: roster either way, anything over field goal.

476
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 4: Give me Tense for my second pick and the third

477
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 4: overall of the week. One Sunday six back. I'm fading

478
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 4: another rookie quarterback in mister Bonnix. Unfortunately for me this

479
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 4: week it's not Bonick season. I'm going with the Seattle

480
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 4: Seahawks minus six at home, another one of my conviction bets.

481
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 4: I think the Seattle team a bit undervalued coming into

482
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 4: the year. My other over win total that I bet

483
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 4: besides the Panthers was the Seahawks. And this is a

484
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 4: bet on Mike McDonald. His game plans on a weekly

485
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 4: basis were spectacular all this time to prepare all off

486
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,919
Speaker 4: season home opener. I think that defense is going to

487
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 4: be well prepared, well schooled, and confused Bonnicks into a

488
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 4: critical mistake or two. You mentioned first overall picks struggling

489
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 4: in Week one. Historically, all rookie quarterbacks have been about

490
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 4: five hundred against the spread. Well, you really see a

491
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 4: drop off is when they have to go on the

492
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 4: road for their first start, and I think they've averaged

493
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:15,959
Speaker 4: eighteen points per game. The last rookie first round quarterback

494
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 4: to win on the road in Week one was Sam

495
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 4: Darnold back in twenty eighteen. So I think hostile environment

496
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 4: here against an improved, well schooled defense I think Bo

497
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 4: Nicks is going to struggle, and I'm not in love

498
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 4: with this Broncos roster overall. The defense doesn't wow me.

499
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 4: So I think that Gino Smith will have enough success

500
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 4: with that rushing attack and his receivers.

501
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: I think Connor.

502
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 4: Williams is a chance to play at center worth monitoring

503
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 4: because that's the one thing I'm worried about is the

504
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 4: Seahawks offensive line. But the Broncos are not a team

505
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 4: that I'm overly concerned about going up against when you

506
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 4: do have some offensive line questions. So I think the

507
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 4: Seahawks jump out here, forced Nicks and the mistakes and

508
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 4: win by a touchdown. Plus give me Seattle at home.

509
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm actually higher than the market on both of

510
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 3: these teams. I'm not gonna be betting this game, all right.

511
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna betting a side on this game. Don't

512
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 3: love betting against Sean Payton as a dog. But Gino

513
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,959
Speaker 3: Smith is kind of being underrated and swept on. You know,

514
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 3: it was it was always going to be an adjustment

515
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 3: period with with Canalis leaving and whatnot, and they just

516
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 3: had some bad luck last year. So if you're gonna

517
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 3: bet on Seattle, and bet against Peyton. I think the

518
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: time is now just because I think the Broncos are

519
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 3: only going to get better. I actually like them to

520
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 3: go over their win total as well. But I do

521
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: think Seattle's being slept on. Your boy, Ryan Grubb. I

522
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 3: think should help out that offense, help out Gito, and

523
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: they got the skill guys there. Their question marks are

524
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 3: really on the offensive line as well, and Denver is

525
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 3: just I don't really know what I'm getting, you know,

526
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 3: So like I'm bullish about them, but a lot of

527
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 3: that is just based on I think the market was

528
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: kind of raiding them at their floor, and they even

529
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: they might be rating them at their floor year plus

530
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 3: six against a mediocre Seattle team, but just not enough,

531
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 3: not enough for me either way, because I am kind

532
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: of bullish on both sides. Yeah.

533
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 4: One final note is schematically, what the Broncos run and

534
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 4: do and their moo doesn't really worry me about some.

535
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 2: Of the things that give Geno fits. But where are

536
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 2: you going for your second pick?

537
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 3: So for my second pick, good segue because we just

538
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 3: talked about a rookie quarterback struggling on the road, But

539
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 3: I'm betting on a rookie quarterback on the road with

540
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 3: Washington plus three and a half at Tampa Bay Jade

541
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 3: and Daniels of course in his first start. And I

542
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 3: get it, you know, rookie quarterbacks do ten to struggle

543
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 3: on the road. But this is just too many points

544
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 3: for me with a mediocre to below average Tampa Bay

545
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 3: team that lost Dave Canalis. So the same reason we're

546
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 3: bullish on Carolina, or one of the reasons for bullish

547
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 3: on Carolina's canal is going over there. And I think

548
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 3: there's gonna be an adjustment period with Baker Mayfield because

549
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 3: they are installing a new offense here. There's gonna be

550
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 3: more motion and things like that, but there's gonna be

551
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 3: a learning curve for this offense. You know, godwins making

552
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 3: the switch back, you know, to the to the to

553
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 3: the slot. You know, there's a lot of changes even

554
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 3: compared to last year when the Bucks, you know, outperformed

555
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 3: expectations and this Washington team comes in, you know, getting

556
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 3: now you're getting more than a field goal. Make sure

557
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: you shop around for the best number. But the three

558
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 3: and a half are out there. I just don't think

559
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 3: this Washington team is significantly worse in any way than

560
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. You know Baker Mayfield, I think a lot

561
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 3: of it was canalists and you're gonna Before he came along,

562
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield was thought of as one of the worst

563
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: quarterbacks in the league. He was bouncing around between the Panthers,

564
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 3: he lost the starting job, that he went to the

565
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 3: Rams and had a little bit of a resurgence. So

566
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: I think that's it's not going to necessarily be what

567
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 3: you saw last year with Mayfield this year going forward

568
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 3: in Tampa.

569
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you mentioned the Seahawks were unlucky and Gino Smith.

570
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 4: Last year the Bucks were lucky, So you could see

571
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 4: regression positive regression with the Seahawks offense negative for the Bucks.

572
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 3: This Washington team, there's just a big culture change here.

573
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 3: Dan Quinn, he's a guy that we kind of targeted

574
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: when he was in Atlanta, but even he I think

575
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 3: has changed. He'll probably have this defense that still leave

576
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: some things to be desired personnel wise, but he'll he'll

577
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 3: probably have this defense playing a lot better than a

578
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 3: guy like del Rio did a year ago. So you know,

579
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 3: some of these perceived weaknesses, you know, for this Washington

580
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 3: defense could be a little better than expected. I'm looking

581
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 3: at you secondary. Tampa Bay's one of their biggest biggest

582
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 3: weaknesses is the interior line. You got a rookie at

583
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 3: center and then the guards, and you got Allen and

584
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 3: Payne in the middle with just the two guys they

585
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: didn't trade away, and what does Baker Mayfield struggle with

586
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 3: interior pressure? So this is a good matchup for Washington.

587
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 3: You just need a guy like Jayden dane Is to

588
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: run around create some stuff off schedule. I think that's

589
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 3: how Washington stays in it. But I think the defense

590
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 3: for Washington is a little underrated and the offense for

591
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay's a little overrated. And these are already just

592
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 3: two five to seven eight ish wins. If you're being

593
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 3: generous quality teams. I think you know Tampa Bay mentioned

594
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 3: got lucky, So I think the perception of Tampa is

595
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 3: a little skewed. But these are just two blow average teams.

596
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 3: And every year you see a bunch of these teams

597
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 3: that in that glutt and Week one. That's why Week

598
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 3: one dogs really I think kill it is because there's

599
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 3: all these perceptions from the prior year are just carrying

600
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 3: over and you don't realize that they're just all kind

601
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,719
Speaker 3: of this is all the same team, and when that happens,

602
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: underdogs are gonna win quite a few of these games.

603
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 3: Todd Bowles is a favorite of a field goal or

604
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 3: more seven and four team just thirty three percent against

605
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 3: the spread in his career. Baker Mayfield as a favorite

606
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 3: of any number fourteen and twenty six thirty five percent

607
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 3: against the spread in his career. Week one road underdogs

608
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 3: you already mentioned stuck that didn't make the prior postseason

609
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 3: are fifty and thirty sixty three percent since twenty twelve.

610
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 3: So boatload of trends' sport Washington, and you know they

611
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 3: got they got the secret weapon, just a dual threat quarterback.

612
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: His name is Koson Yankof and he plays tight ended

613
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 3: special team, so look out for him. I'm betting on

614
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: Quinn and Cliff Oh my god.

615
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's commandos are nothing here. But I'm just I'm

616
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 4: not as high as others. On Daniels told you. I

617
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 4: think he's justin fields.

618
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 2: But sneaky over.

619
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 4: You know, I think there's a potential for a lot

620
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 4: of explosive plays in this game, which is what you

621
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 4: want in today's NFL when you're betting and over, because

622
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 4: let's swear up most overs go to dies when you

623
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 4: just have these methodic drives, and then I wouldn't be

624
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 4: surprised if there's some turnable regression for Mayfield this year,

625
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 4: if Daniels makes a mistake or two, so you could have,

626
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 4: you know, defensive score shorter fields. But I think there's

627
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 4: gonna be some potential for a lot of explosive places

628
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 4: in this game, so over we'd lean Washington, especially at

629
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 4: three and a half. I think this launch should probably

630
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 4: be a field goal. But for my third pick and

631
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 4: the fifth overall of the week one Sunday six pack,

632
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:30,760
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus one and a half.

633
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 4: Chop rounds even get a one or cheap money on

634
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 4: for this contest doesn't matter. Pushes aren't wins, so we're

635
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 4: always on basic and a half point. But I like

636
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 4: the Vikings here I've gone, so I'm betting on Gino,

637
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 4: Bryce Young and now Sam Donald. It feels good to

638
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 4: be back. I'm higher than the Vikings in the market

639
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 4: coming into the year. There's a number of things that

640
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 4: I just really like about this Viking staff that I

641
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 4: think you're gonna come in handy here. Number one Brian Flores.

642
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 4: He is going to have some you know, exotic blitzes

643
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 4: and coverages cooked up for Week one. He's going to

644
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 4: bring a lot of unique blitzes, a lot of pressure

645
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 4: against Daniel Jones, who just completely falls apart when that

646
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,800
Speaker 4: occurs against the blitzer under any pressure. The Giants offensive

647
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 4: line dealing with injuries still not that great. The shifting

648
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 4: guys all around, no continuity, even a new offensive line coach.

649
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 4: Flores is going to take advantage of that. Yes, you

650
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 4: have elite neighbors, but I'll take the I mean, I

651
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 4: look at both these quarterbacks. It's a wash, and I

652
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 4: think that there's even maybe some more upside. Just with

653
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 4: Sam Darnold, he got to work with Shanahan apparently like

654
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 4: his footwork is better now he's getting to work with O'Connell.

655
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 4: Look what O'Connell did with his stable quarterbacks he had

656
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 4: to work with last year after Cousins went down. I mean,

657
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 4: Donald's better than them, and Addison's trending up. Looks like

658
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 4: he's gonna play nailer as well. You have Jefferson who's

659
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 4: covering them in the secondary. The Giants, Yeah, the Giants

660
00:35:56,640 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 4: secondary is horrendous across the board. I mean you or

661
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 4: I could go out there and throw it to these receivers.

662
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 4: On the other look, the Giants' strength on their defense

663
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 4: is their pass rush. But the Viking strength outside of

664
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 4: their receivers, and look, you also have Aaron Jones. I

665
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 4: think it was a big get is their tackles. They

666
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 4: have one of the better tackle duos in the league. Now,

667
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 4: where this could all fall apart, which worries me a

668
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,240
Speaker 4: little bit about laying points on the road with Sam Darnold,

669
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 4: which is very scary, is if Lawrence just causes havoc

670
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 4: on Bradbury and that interier offensive line. That's exactly what

671
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 4: happened in the Giants Vikings playoff game. He got pushed

672
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 4: back the entire game. That worries me a bit. But

673
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,280
Speaker 4: I think they can neutralize their head rush with their tackles.

674
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 4: No one's going to be able to cover. The Giants

675
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 4: also have some injuries. They're dealing with a linebacker. No

676
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 4: one's able to cover these receivers. On the other end,

677
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 4: I think Flores is going to cook up some exotic looks, pressures,

678
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 4: confused Daniel Jones into sacks mistakes, and while the Vikings

679
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 4: secondaries are great, they have some veterans. They're in better

680
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 4: shape than the Giants are in that aspect, and the

681
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 4: Vikings have a better overall receiver room, even though I

682
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 4: know the Giants out of Elik neighbors. So yeah, I

683
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 4: like the Vikings to get this done on the road.

684
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 4: O'Connell have them prepared. Flores will have this defense ready

685
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 4: to go. Daniel Jones just not the answer. And I

686
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,240
Speaker 4: just look compared these two rosters. Where do you feel

687
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 4: more confident about the Giants compared to the Vikings. Like,

688
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 4: name the position. It's not running back, it's not quarterback,

689
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 4: it's not offensive line, it's not receiver, it's you know,

690
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,439
Speaker 4: maybe defensive line. Then you're going up against a really

691
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,439
Speaker 4: good Vikings pair of tackles. Daniel Jones at home too,

692
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 4: nothing great in his career against the number. So yeah,

693
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 4: I like the Vikings. I'm laying points of Sam Donald

694
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 4: on the road. What could go wrong?

695
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 3: I had this game circle because I was like, I

696
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 3: have to be on the Vikings in his game. And

697
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,240
Speaker 3: then I looked at the number and I'm like, Jesus,

698
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 3: we're all at one and a half. So the market

699
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 3: is definitely sharp here, And I was I was kind

700
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 3: of looking forward to this segment because I essentially needed

701
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 3: to talk this through about because I want to be

702
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 3: on the vikings that I think I will I might.

703
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 4: I'm playing money one for what it's worth. I'm playing

704
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 4: money on Yeah, I'm.

705
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 3: About to say that I probably just play the money line.

706
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 3: But the problem is, all Giants fans know the reason

707
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: we love day Ball is because he came over here

708
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 3: and essentially to Daniel Jones, chill check it down. If

709
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: it's not there, run it. I see in the offseason

710
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,879
Speaker 3: that they want they're imploring Daniel Jones to take more

711
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,399
Speaker 3: deep shots. That's when you get into trouble, like how

712
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 3: do they not know this? Are they already paid? They

713
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: got fifty million dollars and that was a mistake, But

714
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 3: how do you not know that? Like Daniel Jones holding

715
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 3: onto the ball now he can read the week in fumbles,

716
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 3: Like now you're just introducing all these Daniel Jones mistakes

717
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 3: back into the equation and I don't love that. And

718
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 3: on top of that, you mentioned it. The offensive line

719
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,720
Speaker 3: is still not good. He still takes too many sacks

720
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 3: and it's his first regular season game coming off a

721
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 3: serious knee injury. Will the running be there to bail

722
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 3: him out. I don't know will they be comfortable calling

723
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 3: as many designed runs. I don't know it's Vikings or nothing.

724
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 3: Even though this seems like a spot where we would

725
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 3: usually be on the dog, you know, I just don't

726
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 3: think this is a great match for Daniel Jones. On

727
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 3: the other side of the Giants weakest unit is a

728
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 3: secondary because they put everything into the line. So this

729
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 3: Vikings team good enough off the tackle spots and the

730
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 3: secondary Deontay Banks if he doesn't even if he does

731
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 3: make the weak you're not covering Justin Jefferson. But Deontay

732
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 3: Banks was ranked outside the top one hundred corners last

733
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 3: year at PFF. He's your number one. You're probably gonna

734
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 3: start a rookie at one of the safety spots. I

735
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,280
Speaker 3: mean they just would They just bring back a Dory

736
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 3: Jackson like a week before the season, and now now

737
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,760
Speaker 3: he might have to start. He's even worse than Banks

738
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 3: last year, so this could just set up his disaster

739
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 3: and Minisolto's gonna come out hungry because their schedule after this.

740
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 3: Oh man, this might be the only win they get.

741
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like the Vikings as well.

742
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 4: Laying points on the road with San Donald feels right

743
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 4: to me because it's like taking an ugly dog. It's

744
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 4: it's ugly, it hurts, stings, it's not pretty. But where

745
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 4: you going for their final pick?

746
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,880
Speaker 3: For my third and final pick, I'm going with the

747
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 3: Jacksonville Jaguars plus three and a half at the Miami Dolphins.

748
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 3: This is just a play on the number for me.

749
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: I make this closer to two and a half. The

750
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: Dolphins are and the Jaguars they're similar teams, so it

751
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 3: really it's just it's come down to home field for

752
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 3: the Dolphins, and it's not really you're not traveling if

753
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 3: you're the Jaguars. Both teams playing Florida Dolphins don't have

754
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 3: a Dolphins do have a good home field advantage when

755
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,240
Speaker 3: they play some of those teams like Buffalo and whatnot.

756
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 3: And I guess they have the sideline thing with the

757
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 3: shade on one side of whatever we'll get. They should

758
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 3: be the favorite. Fine, but I think the Jaguars are

759
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 3: being undervalued in this spot. The Jaguars got really unlucky

760
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 3: last year. Trevor Lawrence, I think is a lot better

761
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 3: than his numbers showed, especially last year because he's had

762
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 3: I think the most drops over his first three years

763
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 3: of any quarterback. Just a lot of unlucky things going

764
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 3: down in the red zone for Jacksonville last year. But

765
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 3: on paper, like or not even just on paper, Its

766
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:10,959
Speaker 3: like if you look at how these you know, both

767
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 3: of these offenses, like Miami has the flashy guys, you know,

768
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 3: the Tyreeks and the a Chans and whatnot. But Jacksonville

769
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 3: very solid, skill position course Etn at running back. Really

770
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 3: like Brian Thomas junior at wide receiver. Remember their wide

771
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 3: receivers were banged up last year. Christian Kirk, you have

772
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 3: they brought in Gabe Davis, great run blocker, so he

773
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 3: and he could be the number five option now, you know.

774
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 3: So it's not like in Buffalo where they were counting

775
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 3: on him to be the number two or three guy.

776
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 3: He's here probably your number five because Brian Thomas is

777
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:48,240
Speaker 3: look good, Kirk is you know, outplayed expectations and Ingram's

778
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 3: been a beast. Et N. You can use him, you

779
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:54,280
Speaker 3: can move him all around, and then the offensive line

780
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 3: a lot of injuries last year should be better with

781
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 3: bad last year. The defensively Jacksonville is you know, they

782
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 3: always kind of leave you wanting on that side of

783
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 3: the ball. But I think Jacksonville has enough pieces there.

784
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 3: You're like, you're not gonna always completely stop Miami. But

785
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 3: you know, Darby, it's early in the year, so as

786
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 3: long as he's healthy, I think he might be an upgrade.

787
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 3: He still got Campbell on the other side. Johnson's played

788
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 3: well at times in the slot. I like the linebackers

789
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 3: Lloyd and Alua Kun. You're still looking for another edge rusher.

790
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 3: But you added Armstead on the interior. You still got

791
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 3: Hines Allen, so there's pieces there. You added Savage on

792
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: the sack of there. So I think Jacksonville overall just

793
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 3: gonna be a lot better than they were or better

794
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 3: than they were last year. And this is already what

795
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 3: a nine to eight team last year, And Miami's kind

796
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,320
Speaker 3: of a similar type of team. And when they played

797
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 3: teams like this, you know, the narrative is Miami can't

798
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 3: be a great competition, But when they played kind of

799
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 3: similar teams, a lot of times, even in Miami wins,

800
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 3: it's like one point points. We saw that last year

801
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 3: Week one, they played the Chargers, they win by two points.

802
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 3: They played the Cowboys. Wait in the year, they win

803
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 3: by two points, so Miami laying three and a half

804
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 3: at home. It's just too much.

805
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 4: Good live betting game in my opinion, Like it's hard

806
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 4: to see, like who's getting stops in this game? They

807
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 4: all have a long list of injuries that I'm monitoring,

808
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 4: like even down there, like Ramsey, which works in the

809
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 4: favor of your side with the hook, and like but

810
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 4: Ken the Jags secondary actually cover these receivers in space.

811
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 4: I have my concerns. It's a new defensive scheme as well.

812
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 4: Dennis Allen, True, you're gonna see more, man, I don't

813
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 4: know if they have the dudes. I mean, Darby's not

814
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 4: getting any younger. So but on the other side, the Dolphins,

815
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 4: you know, without Philips, without Chubb, are they gonna to

816
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 4: get pressure? That's what you need to do to Lawrence

817
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 4: is you have to get pressure, and his numbers fall

818
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 4: off a cliff. I'm not sure the Dolphins can get

819
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 4: pressure here. I don't really like betting overs week one,

820
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 4: but if I had to, I would look at the

821
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 4: over and said I would I much prefer the Jacks side.

822
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 4: I think it's a good love betting game. I like

823
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 4: it there.

824
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 2: So what's the recap?

825
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 3: So you have the Carolina Panthers plus four, the Seattle

826
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 3: Seahawks minus six, and the Vikings minus one and a half.

827
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 3: I have the Titans plus four, Washington plus three and

828
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 3: a half, and the Jacksonville Jaguars plus three and a half.

829
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 3: So you have Bryce Young, Gino Smith, Sam Darnold. I

830
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 3: have Will Levis, Jayden Daniels at his first start on

831
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:34,959
Speaker 3: the road, and Trevor Laurence. So we have one one

832
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 3: ish respectable quarterbacks at least coming into the year. I

833
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,839
Speaker 3: like Daniels more than you. Yeah, exactly, Like that's are

834
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 3: we going Sunday six pack? And now it is time

835
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 3: for our coaches pep talk. This is by far the

836
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 3: worst team that has ever sat in this locker room.

837
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,919
Speaker 3: There's not one of you, not one of you that's

838
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 3: learned to how to win. And for this week's coaches

839
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 3: pep talk, we're gonna go to to actor Kevin Dunn

840
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 3: in the mockumentary any given Saturday afternoon, and we got

841
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 3: to dedicate this one to the Carolina Panthers.

842
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 7: We are fighting a global fight for a share of

843
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 7: people's TVs. We need to make this sport more exciting.

844
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 7: You are not losers. You are not dorks. You don't suck.

845
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 7: What you do is not stupid and worthless. I don't

846
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 7: give a shit who tells you that.

847
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 2: I don't care. If it's your.

848
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 7: Kids, your wives, your parents. You go up and you

849
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 7: tell somebody you're an athlete, that asshole shouldn't be laughing.

850
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 7: It's gonna be the greatest underdog story in the modern

851
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 7: sports era.

852
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:51,800
Speaker 2: Now, that is a hell of a story.

853
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 3: So best of luck to the Panthers, even though you

854
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 3: got him in the contest, Stuck, I'll be on them

855
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 3: as well, and you are not losers. All right, let's

856
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 3: get into our favorite over under of the week. All right, Stuck,

857
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 3: you went first in six packs, So the way we

858
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:13,799
Speaker 3: do it we switch it up for the total. So

859
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 3: I'll go first here. I'm going Steelers Falcons under forty

860
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 3: two and a half. I might get to forty three,

861
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 3: so I'm not in a rushed about it. Forty two

862
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 3: is not really a key number, so it could jump

863
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 3: around forty one and a half, forty two, forty two

864
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 3: and a half. I don't really care. But on the

865
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 3: off chance it gets to forty three, that would be nice.

866
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:38,280
Speaker 3: But the reason I like this under is because something

867
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 3: of something you kind of alluded to stuck. You're gonna

868
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 3: see some rust with these quarterbacks who didn't play in

869
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 3: the preseason. And Kirk Cousins not only didn't play in

870
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 3: the preseason, but he's coming off an achilles injury, for

871
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 3: which we just don't have a large sample size of

872
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 3: guys even coming off this, Like I usually have to

873
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 3: go back to Dan Marino to even find a quarterback

874
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 3: coming off a serious one. You know Rogers this year,

875
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 3: but we haven't seen anything from him yet either, and

876
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 3: he's in a new offense, new new weapons. I also

877
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 3: think that this matchup plays into Pittsburgh's hands defensively because

878
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 3: Atlanta in this new scheme, which I think ultimately will

879
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 3: benefit them relative to you know, Arthur Smith, who is

880
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 3: in Pittsburgh right now. But I think it's easy to

881
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,879
Speaker 3: prepare for so because you're running like what ninety five

882
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 3: eleven personnel, So, you know, Pittsburgh, the defense is the

883
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 3: strength of this team. They've had all offseason. Arthur Smith

884
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 3: is in the building, so he's familiar with a bunch

885
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 3: of players on this roster. I think it's that's an

886
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 3: advantage Pittsburgh in terms an advantage defense because I don't

887
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 3: think Pittsburgh's offense is gonna do much either way. You know,

888
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:54,720
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson is cooked. Maybe he gets benched mid game.

889
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 8: All three guys, to be really transparent, are somewhat stalled it.

890
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 8: You know, it's not fun to get fired, and we

891
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 8: as a collective got some questions to answer.

892
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 3: So I'm excited about that as well. The Falcons. You know,

893
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 3: the defense should be trending up. I do think it'll

894
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 3: be better than last year, but you know, could could

895
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 3: take some time with Simmons. You know, Simmons is new,

896
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 3: but you did add Jude On so at least have

897
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 3: some semblance of a pass rush. You still got Grady

898
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 3: Jarrett and Anyamada Terrell's good corner, so you have some

899
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 3: some good pieces on Atlanta against Pittsburgh. I take this

900
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 3: matchup even indoors, not scary at all. Pittsburgh offensive line

901
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,399
Speaker 3: has been pretty bad all preseason. Guys are banged up

902
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 3: for them, and in Pittsburgh, you know, I talked about it.

903
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 3: It just plays into them. Their their hands defensively because

904
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 3: it's easier to prepare for one one personnel. You know,

905
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 3: that means what do you do? You're gonna you're gonna

906
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 3: chip Kyle Pitts on what or like, what are you

907
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 3: doing there? It's it's harder to give help to wat

908
00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 3: your tackles on what you have that defensive line, which, uh,

909
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 3: you know, INA's offensive line I would consider a strength overall,

910
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 3: but you have Hayward, you have what on that defensive line.

911
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 3: So I just think Pittsburgh's defense matches up well. I

912
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 3: think Atlanta will be rusty. I think Atlanta's defense, at

913
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 3: least personnel wise, is improved. And this Pittsburgh offense doesn't

914
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 3: scare me at all. And for all we know, Russell

915
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 3: Wilson could be even worse than Kenny Pickett, Mason, Rudolph Mit,

916
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 3: Mitch Bortles, excuse me last year. And this is Arthur Smith.

917
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 3: So it says underwritten all over it for me.

918
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think, you know, in a odd way,

919
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 4: both offenses are going to be improved schematically because the

920
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 4: Falcons are improved by upgrading at coordinator, by moving on

921
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 4: from Arthur Smith. Yeah, but the Steelers are also upgrading

922
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 4: by getting Arthur Smith. Because that's how bad Matt Canada was.

923
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 4: It wouldn't be a pot our podcast. We didn't mention

924
00:49:57,520 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 4: Mike Tomlin as an underdog. I have to mention that

925
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 4: he's fifteen nine, thirty five and four against the spread

926
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 4: as a dog, sixty three percent. Most profitable coachsdog over

927
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 4: the past twenty years. Now, our policser can insert a

928
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 4: Tomlin clip.

929
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:11,760
Speaker 8: The standard is the standard. That's our model, that's our creed,

930
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 8: that's our approach, time and time again.

931
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 2: The standard is the standard.

932
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 3: Well, while we're on tom of trends, I didn't even

933
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: mention Toblin unders when he's on the road fifty five

934
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 3: and twenty five since twenty fourteen sixty A nice sixty

935
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 3: nine percent hit rate. What Tomlin Road unders when they

936
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,399
Speaker 3: opened forty three or higher in the first three months

937
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 3: of the season forty two, thirteen and one since he

938
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:43,760
Speaker 3: became the head coach of the Steelers seventy six percent

939
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 3: on a fifty six game sample size.

940
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 2: Hey we go this, Yes, is the Steelers way.

941
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 4: Just grind out the game, then force the tournament the

942
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 4: fourth quarter, find a way to win. It's what they

943
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 4: do every year. Their one possession record is insane under Tomlin.

944
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 8: Opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount like

945
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 8: what we're talking about.

946
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 4: But I actually think this is a good matchup for

947
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 4: the Falcons. The thing that gives me slight pauses I

948
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 4: don't know what to expect from Cousins. I have the

949
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 4: same pause with the Jets. I bet the Jets on

950
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 4: Monday night. I know you'll have that game written up,

951
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 4: but I now I'm kind of scared of my bat.

952
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,320
Speaker 4: I was trying to get ahead of I was thinking

953
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 4: that williams zend or Ayuk potentially might not play, But

954
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 4: now it looks like the Jets without Reddick are going

955
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 4: to be the team that could be down personnel wise.

956
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:35,359
Speaker 4: The Steelers have one reliable receiver, but the offensive line,

957
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 4: I mean, you have injuries all over. I think they

958
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 4: could be starting Dan Moore, who's terrible at left tackle,

959
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 4: Spencer Anderson and left guard potentially a rookie center that

960
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:50,759
Speaker 4: is on the road. That is not ideal for Week

961
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 4: one with all the injuries that they're dealing with, because

962
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,359
Speaker 4: you have Sayamalu's out, Herbig's on ir not a good

963
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:02,320
Speaker 4: situation in front of Russ. Going with a Tomlin under

964
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 4: as a dog never a bad idea. But for my

965
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 4: favorite total of the week, I'm gonna go with the

966
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 4: Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys under forty one. That's the last

967
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 4: place i'd play it to. It's under has taken some money.

968
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 4: But there's a lot of things I like about this

969
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 4: under both teams in recent seasons, their strength has been

970
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 4: their offensive line. Not the case now. And you're going

971
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 4: up against defenses that have a lot of juice in

972
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:32,359
Speaker 4: the past.

973
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:33,280
Speaker 2: Rushing department.

974
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 4: Cowboys going to be starting Brookie left tackle, going up

975
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 4: against Miles Garrett. That's not great. They are worse off

976
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 4: at the center position. So there's questions down this Dallas

977
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 4: offensive line. The running back room got worse. And look,

978
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 4: the offense was electric last year, but it's when they

979
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,240
Speaker 4: got ahead. And we talked about this. They're front runners

980
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 4: and when they were at home when they were playing

981
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 4: bad defenses, and the Browns they don't really have to

982
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 4: worry about the running game. They can come after this

983
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 4: offensive line with the aggression that they play with up

984
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 4: front in that Jim Schwartz defense, and you just have

985
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 4: to really worry about, you know, ceed Lamb from a

986
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 4: receiver standpoint, so and you have three really good man corners,

987
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 4: so you can take two of them and take their

988
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 4: other receivers out of the equation. Put one of your

989
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:29,800
Speaker 4: other elite man corners on Lamb and then shade a

990
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 4: safety to him and right, and then you have your

991
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 4: other safety coming up in the box. Worrying about Ferguson.

992
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:37,720
Speaker 4: You have to worry about like they can shut down

993
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 4: this Cowboys offense. Get pressure on Dak, and you have

994
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 4: on the other side of the ball Browns offensive line issues.

995
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 4: They're running back room doesn't have as much juice as

996
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:54,919
Speaker 4: it usually does without Chubb, and you have de Shaun

997
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 4: Watson who hasn't played in how long and when he

998
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 4: has it hasn't looked great. I don't expect this Browns

999
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,879
Speaker 4: offense to do much in your outdoors, and there could

1000
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 4: be some wind. I think this is a super low

1001
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 4: scoring game. Give me the Browns Cowboys under.

1002
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 3: An ugly spot for the Cowboys and their offense got

1003
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 3: worse and pretty much every way. And on top of that,

1004
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 3: I mean, you know Dak two years ago he had

1005
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 3: all those interceptions, and then last year he was coming

1006
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 3: into the year I'm gonna cut down these interceptions, which

1007
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 3: which he did. But now he's, you know, working with

1008
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 3: less and he's he's kind of agitated and probably trying

1009
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 3: to prove he's worth all the all the money that

1010
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:35,719
Speaker 3: he's in line to get, so you might see some

1011
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 3: of the mistakes come back for Dak as well. So yeah,

1012
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 3: it should be a defensive defensive battle here. So yeah,

1013
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 3: Steelers Falcons is under for me, Brown's Cowboys under for you.

1014
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:51,720
Speaker 3: Football season is here, and if you've thought about becoming

1015
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 3: an Action Pro subscriber, now is the best time to

1016
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 3: sign up. For less than ten hours a month, you

1017
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 3: can get a year of Action Pro access across every sport,

1018
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 3: which includes player prop picks and projection edges from Sean

1019
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 3: Kerner and his Action Analytics team, Sean Zarrillo's projections for baseball,

1020
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:13,800
Speaker 3: Colin Wilson and Stucky for college football, access to premium

1021
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 3: articles from our top experts, and so much more. And

1022
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 3: Actions podcast listeners can use code Pod twenty That's Pod

1023
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:24,919
Speaker 3: two zero to get an extra twenty dollars off That's

1024
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Speaker 3: Pod twenty For twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.

1025
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:33,400
Speaker 3: Just visit actionnetwork dot com, slash pricing or follow the

1026
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 3: link in the episode's description. Let's get into our favorite

1027
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 3: teaser of the week.

1028
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1029
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 3: Don't want the team, don't change. Don't tease me time please.

1030
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:57,400
Speaker 3: For those unfamiliar with teasers, it's just when you add

1031
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 3: a certain number of points to a parlay of two

1032
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 3: or more spread bats. Usually it's a six point teaser. So,

1033
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 3: for example, eight point favorite becomes a two point favorite,

1034
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 3: a two point underdog becomes the eight point underdog stuck.

1035
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 3: You have a lot of great content out there on

1036
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 3: teaters and teasing through the key numbers of the three

1037
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:22,439
Speaker 3: and the seven, so everyone make sure to check those out.

1038
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 3: Talk to me about where you're going for week one.

1039
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I already mentioned the teaser earlier the show.

1040
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 4: If you're listening this before Thursday or Friday, Raven's packers

1041
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 4: I like, and then teaser that you suggested, I'm I'm

1042
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:38,919
Speaker 4: gonna agree with teasing the Bengals down and the Cowboys.

1043
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 4: You're going cross three and seven and both both have

1044
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 4: lower totals to Bengals. Jamar Chase is he gonna play?

1045
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 4: He was out of practice today? That's the big question

1046
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:49,240
Speaker 4: with Cincy.

1047
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 3: It's iffy, I mean, but I mean it's tempting me

1048
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 3: to just bet this line in because the Patriots are

1049
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 3: not ready for prime time. I mean they're they literally

1050
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,600
Speaker 3: are starting their backup quarterback just because they're not covered

1051
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 3: in their O line. I mean that's also an under candidate.

1052
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, speaking of their O line, it is a mess.

1053
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 4: I'm just not a fan enough laying I touchdown plus

1054
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 4: favorites week one, fourteen and twenty seven against the spread

1055
00:57:13,600 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 4: since two thousand and three. But you have strange already

1056
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 4: on I are they're Patriots guard. You have Low and

1057
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 4: so dealing with injuries. If that's the case, you have

1058
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 4: a rookie Robinson at right guard, and you know Andrews

1059
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 4: and Owanu will be fine. But if Low is out,

1060
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 4: okarofore probably starting at the other tackle spot, and then

1061
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 4: Leverett or Michael Jordan at the other guard spot. All

1062
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 4: with a new offensive line scheme, they're changing out their blocking.

1063
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 4: That's bad news Hunter Henry dealing with injury, no Born

1064
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 4: Barsett starting. The good news isn't if you want to

1065
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 4: bet an under there, because the Patriots they are probably

1066
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:48,400
Speaker 4: gonna go much slower this year. They're going to be

1067
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 4: just super run heavy and try to rely on their

1068
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 4: defense for set. The reason why it's such a good

1069
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 4: backup top five among all qualified quarterbacks in NFL history

1070
00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 4: in interception rate doesn't make mistakes, but he's a good backup.

1071
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think I think the Bengals still should

1072
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,640
Speaker 4: get it done at home. Dax Hill looks like won

1073
00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 4: the cornerback two job. I think that's the most important

1074
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:12,800
Speaker 4: job on this entire team for the Bengals to reach

1075
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,040
Speaker 4: where they want to go. Looks like he's gonna win

1076
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 4: it over DJ Turner. The Bengal should get it done.

1077
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 4: And then the Browns low low scoring game, Browns Cowboys

1078
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:24,440
Speaker 4: low scoring game with a low projected total teasing that

1079
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 4: up to over eight.

1080
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:27,840
Speaker 2: So I like that look that you suggested.

1081
00:58:28,240 --> 00:58:30,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and for the Bengals run defense. At least what

1082
00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:33,400
Speaker 3: I'm hearing now, this doesn't necessarily have to play out

1083
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 3: on the field, but they felt like it had a

1084
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:40,040
Speaker 3: lot to do with communication on the back end, and

1085
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 3: they're saying, at least internally that that's made a big

1086
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 3: difference in just getting them in better looks and fits.

1087
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 3: I agree.

1088
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:48,520
Speaker 4: I agree with that. I agree with that assessment. It's

1089
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:50,120
Speaker 4: one of the reasons why why I bet the Bengals

1090
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 4: win the division.

1091
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Bengals this year. I think they're

1092
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 3: the team to bet over the Ravens in that Division

1093
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 3: as well. But and then on Cleveland Dallas. Yeah, we

1094
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:01,320
Speaker 3: already talked about why Dallas could you struggle? But Cleveland's

1095
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:03,360
Speaker 3: another one of these teams. They didn't play their quarterback

1096
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:06,520
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson. Until I see Deshaun Watson on the field.

1097
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 3: I mean, I would be surprised if Sean Watson is

1098
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:11,640
Speaker 3: like a surprise scratch for week one or something. I

1099
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 3: never feel like confident with Deshaun Watson because every time

1100
00:59:15,480 --> 00:59:17,320
Speaker 3: he throws the ball for like two days in a row,

1101
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 3: he's hurt or he's like, I don't know what's going

1102
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 3: on with him.

1103
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 2: It's not pretty.

1104
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 3: And your big upgrade in the offseason was Cherry Judy.

1105
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 3: I mean, ask Steve Smith Senior about that one. All right,

1106
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 3: let's go to our underdog money line.

1107
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 1: Parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1108
00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 1: the money line parlay, all right.

1109
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,760
Speaker 3: In this section, we each choose an underdog, give you

1110
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:46,280
Speaker 3: the parlay odds if you want to do that. Obviously,

1111
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 3: you could just bet him individually, but I think we're

1112
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 3: both going with one of each other's picks if I'm

1113
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 3: not mistaken, So he can start us off.

1114
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, go out to the Commanders to talk about it

1115
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:01,560
Speaker 4: earlier in this XPEC segments, so nothing much more to add.

1116
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 3: Where you going Panthers, same deal here, we talked about

1117
01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 3: it already. So if you parlay the Commanders plus one

1118
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 3: forty the Panthers plus one eighty, your parlay odds would

1119
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:17,640
Speaker 3: be plus five seventy two. So some nice underdogs. I

1120
01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 3: think Week one's a good spot for these in general

1121
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:27,680
Speaker 3: and specifically regarding the Panthers. Week one divisional dogs are

1122
01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 3: actually above five hundred outright since two thousand and ten,

1123
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 3: so go over over a decade. Now, the Week one

1124
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 3: divisional dogs forty thirty eight and two on the money

1125
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:47,080
Speaker 3: line fifty one percent with a thirty two percent ROI.

1126
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 3: So uh like like that spot for Carolina. All right,

1127
01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:56,720
Speaker 3: let's end it with our Survivorpool pick of the week.

1128
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:05,520
Speaker 1: The Survivor Pool pick of the.

1129
01:01:05,520 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 3: Week, Where are you going stuck?

1130
01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 4: I'm in the Circa Survivor, so there's twenty weeks. So

1131
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 4: if you're in a bigger pool, this is how I'm

1132
01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 4: gonna be playing it all year, Raybaun, I think will

1133
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 4: be more you know, medium size and just trying to advance.

1134
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 4: I'm going to be a little riskier. I'm saving the Bengals,

1135
01:01:25,360 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 4: who have an easy schedule. I have some spots I

1136
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 4: want to use them when I mapped it all out

1137
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 4: later in the year. So I'm going to go with

1138
01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:38,440
Speaker 4: the Seattle Seahawks at home against the Denver Broncos and

1139
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:41,400
Speaker 4: bo Nicks in his first career start on the road.

1140
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:44,360
Speaker 4: I'm going to save the Bengals, who, by the way,

1141
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 4: are the only favor of over a touchdown this week.

1142
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:51,160
Speaker 4: That is the fewest in Week one in the NFL

1143
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:53,200
Speaker 4: since I believe twenty eleven, when we didn't have any

1144
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:54,960
Speaker 4: a lot of close spreads this week.

1145
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:58,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, it makes sense. I hate that the Bengals are

1146
01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 3: really the only spot, you know, the only safe quote

1147
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 3: unquote safe spot in Week one, because they do have

1148
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 3: such an easy schedule. But the way I play week one,

1149
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:10,080
Speaker 3: even if I am in a big side, a larger pool,

1150
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:12,240
Speaker 3: I just want to advance Week one because that's I'm

1151
01:02:12,280 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 3: really going off nothing here. It's actually be funny, I believe,

1152
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 3: because we do this every year and like if one

1153
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:21,560
Speaker 3: of us gets eliminated, the other one just gives the

1154
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 3: picks for the rest of you. All. Right now, it's

1155
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:25,920
Speaker 3: time for best of the rest which are the games

1156
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 3: that we did not hit on in any other segment.

1157
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 7: That's going to be a touchdown, but that may be

1158
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 7: meaningful to some of you, so you know what I mean.

1159
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:39,040
Speaker 3: But started off with the Texans at the Indianapolis Colts.

1160
01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 3: Texans favored by three at most books on the road

1161
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 3: system two and a half's out there the total forty nine.

1162
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 3: I actually like the Texans in this spot, especially if

1163
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 3: you can get inside of three, or I might just

1164
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 3: play the money line. But my thing with the Texans is, yes,

1165
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 3: they're on the road in a divisional spot, which is

1166
01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:01,600
Speaker 3: usually the spot to back the dog. But I think

1167
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:07,080
Speaker 3: that this Texan offense, specifically having three what I consider

1168
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 3: ELK wide receivers, is just the worst possible matchup for

1169
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:14,200
Speaker 3: the Colts because the Colts' main issue, main question mark,

1170
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:18,919
Speaker 3: main weakness is the secondary and specifically at cornerback, where

1171
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 3: you have More's pretty solid, but he's a slot and

1172
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 3: you're gonna have Brents and Joe. Yeah, just a bunch

1173
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:30,720
Speaker 3: of got question marks. So I mean, even if those

1174
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 3: guys improved, they would still get toasted by Stefan Diggs,

1175
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:39,560
Speaker 3: Tank Dell, Nico Collins. But this this matchup plays right

1176
01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 3: into the Texans hands, so I know it's you know

1177
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 3: they've Texans tend to play these close games. I think

1178
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 3: they only won by four and that was on that

1179
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:48,960
Speaker 3: drop pass in that matchup in Week eighteen last season.

1180
01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:51,200
Speaker 3: But the Texans have a clear and they remember they

1181
01:03:51,240 --> 01:03:53,280
Speaker 3: only had they didn't have Digs or Dell for that game.

1182
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:56,120
Speaker 3: But the Texans have a clear edge in the spot

1183
01:03:56,200 --> 01:03:58,560
Speaker 3: that you just don't want to face if you're a

1184
01:03:58,600 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 3: Colts fan, which is wide receiver against that secondary. I

1185
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 3: like the Texans. Any thoughts there.

1186
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:08,200
Speaker 4: Would lean Texans, but not running to better I mean

1187
01:04:08,200 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 4: divisional home dogs. Oh, they have been absolutely money in

1188
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:16,280
Speaker 4: Week one seventeen and four against the spreads in twenty twelve.

1189
01:04:16,440 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 4: But I think that's ultimately the difference is there's just

1190
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 4: a huge mismatch when it comes to passing attack for

1191
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 4: the Texans against the secondary for the Colts, which is

1192
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 4: their glaring weakness. Can the Colts just generate enough pressure

1193
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:31,520
Speaker 4: on Stroud. I think they had five or six sacks

1194
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:33,840
Speaker 4: in one meeting last year, but that's when the Tunsil

1195
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 4: was out and they were playing with like four backup

1196
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:37,840
Speaker 4: offensive linemen. They're going to need to get pressure with

1197
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:41,000
Speaker 4: their front otherwise it's going to be a long day. Now,

1198
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:44,240
Speaker 4: Sometimes the Texans come out and they run it too often,

1199
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:47,160
Speaker 4: right like, and they just are inefficient.

1200
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:47,240
Speaker 2: Early in the game.

1201
01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 4: Then they unleash Stroud, So I might look for the

1202
01:04:52,240 --> 01:04:55,959
Speaker 4: Texans live they get behind. But I also I don't

1203
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 4: really love overs in week one, especially in division games.

1204
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:01,439
Speaker 4: But it would lean over here fast Colts are gonna

1205
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:03,840
Speaker 4: go super fast. It's just hard for me to see

1206
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:07,120
Speaker 4: the Texans getting to slow down the pass sack. Maybe

1207
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:09,120
Speaker 4: I'll look for live over too. If the Texans come

1208
01:05:09,120 --> 01:05:12,800
Speaker 4: out and they're they're kind of messing around but running

1209
01:05:12,800 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 4: it too often, as they tend.

1210
01:05:14,280 --> 01:05:17,640
Speaker 2: To do early in games last year under Slowik. But

1211
01:05:17,240 --> 01:05:19,320
Speaker 2: but lean my biggestly.

1212
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:21,320
Speaker 3: Movie be over, and they do internally they do know that.

1213
01:05:21,400 --> 01:05:24,160
Speaker 3: So Slowick he was aware and over the second half

1214
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 3: of it. Now it was kind of obscured because they

1215
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:29,040
Speaker 3: you know, Stroud has injured a couple of games down

1216
01:05:29,080 --> 01:05:31,080
Speaker 3: the stretch, and then like all the receivers got hurt.

1217
01:05:31,120 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 3: And after that Carolina game, it was kind of a

1218
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:35,520
Speaker 3: wake up call to Slowik when they lost that game

1219
01:05:35,560 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 3: and they got too cute running the ball so I

1220
01:05:37,880 --> 01:05:40,640
Speaker 3: think what they traded for Stefan Diggs like they're clearly

1221
01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:42,720
Speaker 3: planning to be more pass happy. And as far as

1222
01:05:42,720 --> 01:05:44,720
Speaker 3: the sacks, c J. Stroud had two games where he

1223
01:05:44,720 --> 01:05:46,440
Speaker 3: took a lot of sacks the first two of his career.

1224
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:49,880
Speaker 3: After that, pressure or not, he was fine regardless of

1225
01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:51,720
Speaker 3: who was in and out of the lineup. So I'm

1226
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:54,360
Speaker 3: not really worried about it either. So I'll probably be

1227
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 3: on the Texans. Maybe, but maybe I will take the

1228
01:05:56,120 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 3: money line. Okay, Bills, Arizona Bills are at home. The

1229
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 3: Cardinals are six and a half point underdogs. The totals

1230
01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 3: forty eight. I'm actually curious to your thoughts on this

1231
01:06:06,280 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 3: game because I make this line around five. I think

1232
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:11,080
Speaker 3: the market is a little low on the Cardinals. I

1233
01:06:11,160 --> 01:06:15,640
Speaker 3: think that Kyler Murray with a full offseason with a

1234
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 3: true number one receiver, Remember his number has just been

1235
01:06:17,800 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 3: a lot better with Hopkins. You know, Marvin Harrison top top,

1236
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:23,080
Speaker 3: one of the top picks in the draft. Dertch, I

1237
01:06:23,120 --> 01:06:25,479
Speaker 3: mean he's gonna I think he's I believe he's gonna

1238
01:06:25,480 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 3: start at the in the slot position. So he's a

1239
01:06:28,760 --> 01:06:31,320
Speaker 3: guy that can create. I like Wilson, so I really

1240
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 3: like the offense. I think the offensive line we okay,

1241
01:06:35,240 --> 01:06:38,360
Speaker 3: but you have Murray regardless. Defensively is where I still

1242
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:41,000
Speaker 3: have the question marks, you know. But I'm not as

1243
01:06:41,040 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 3: high on this Joe Brady transformation as some I know,

1244
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:48,640
Speaker 3: an article just came out with Stefan Diggs essentially saying

1245
01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:51,240
Speaker 3: throwing Brady under the bus and saying we started running

1246
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:53,280
Speaker 3: too much in the second half, and that's that kind

1247
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:56,160
Speaker 3: of coincided with your Bill's future super Bowl future. They

1248
01:06:56,160 --> 01:07:00,440
Speaker 3: started winning, But I don't know that's the right mentality

1249
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:05,120
Speaker 3: long term for the Bills. I just feel like sometimes

1250
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:08,760
Speaker 3: those things like it's like these offensive coordinators have these

1251
01:07:08,800 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 3: good stretches and they and I'm pretty sure it was

1252
01:07:11,160 --> 01:07:13,160
Speaker 3: like a McDermott thing, like ah, I'm a you know,

1253
01:07:13,200 --> 01:07:15,440
Speaker 3: he's a defensive guy, and he's like, all you know,

1254
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 3: let's let's let's run the ball. It's like, dude, you

1255
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 3: have Josh Allen and it's define Diggs and now you don't.

1256
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 3: So I think this Bills team might be a little overrated.

1257
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:26,200
Speaker 3: But at the same time, the Bills did take some

1258
01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:27,720
Speaker 3: sharp money, which is why I want to hear your

1259
01:07:27,720 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 3: thoughts because I I I would love to get a

1260
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:32,920
Speaker 3: seven with Arizona, but I make this line about a

1261
01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:36,240
Speaker 3: point a point and a half off from the market already.

1262
01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 4: Conviction on on the entire Week one slate. I don't

1263
01:07:44,040 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 4: know how the Bills are going to approach this well

1264
01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:48,440
Speaker 4: number one. Defensively, I think the Bills are going to

1265
01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:50,400
Speaker 4: take a step back, similar to the Bengals last year

1266
01:07:50,800 --> 01:07:53,760
Speaker 4: with their safety situation. You lose your two main staates.

1267
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 4: Looks like they're gonna be starting Tailor Rap Tamar Hamlin.

1268
01:07:56,960 --> 01:07:59,560
Speaker 4: Both those guys better coming the downhill like there could

1269
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:02,400
Speaker 4: be some fust plays here. And by the way, Greg

1270
01:08:02,440 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 4: Dortch get into Greg dortschow. I've been on Greg Dortch

1271
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,760
Speaker 4: since his wake Forest days in his first year. Now

1272
01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:11,520
Speaker 4: the fancy community is all about him. Shout out my

1273
01:08:11,600 --> 01:08:14,920
Speaker 4: guy Ian Hart. It's but I see him always tweeting

1274
01:08:14,920 --> 01:08:17,880
Speaker 4: about him. But I was first. I just want to

1275
01:08:17,880 --> 01:08:20,280
Speaker 4: say that, Greg Dortch, happy to see you having the success.

1276
01:08:20,320 --> 01:08:21,360
Speaker 2: I always knew you would.

1277
01:08:22,120 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 6: The most electrifying player in college football.

1278
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:27,839
Speaker 7: Guess who Greg Torch understand?

1279
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:29,800
Speaker 8: Greg Dorch is a big play guy.

1280
01:08:29,920 --> 01:08:31,400
Speaker 6: Dors beats the butter.

1281
01:08:31,240 --> 01:08:35,559
Speaker 3: Down the middle, beats George and he's touchdown.

1282
01:08:35,280 --> 01:08:38,560
Speaker 7: The buggician that hasn't done it again, Greg Dorch just

1283
01:08:38,640 --> 01:08:39,320
Speaker 7: something else.

1284
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:43,439
Speaker 4: But yeah, the Cardinals offense should be better. And look

1285
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 4: the Bill's defense, there's a lot of pressure on their

1286
01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:51,240
Speaker 4: corners and their defensive ends Russo and Epinezer, who I

1287
01:08:51,320 --> 01:08:54,439
Speaker 4: like to just and their interior is good too with

1288
01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:58,719
Speaker 4: with Jones leading the way there and Oliver. They got

1289
01:08:58,720 --> 01:09:01,760
Speaker 4: to get home because the middle of the defense is

1290
01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:04,440
Speaker 4: gonna take a bit. You don't Milano now, Dorin Williams

1291
01:09:04,680 --> 01:09:06,920
Speaker 4: probably gonna get the first crack there. I've seen even

1292
01:09:06,960 --> 01:09:09,760
Speaker 4: Bills Fen's getting excited about Joe and Jeresen like the

1293
01:09:09,800 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 4: local kid with the buffalo, like that's bat. The safety

1294
01:09:13,400 --> 01:09:17,599
Speaker 4: situation is not great right now, and that doesn't enable

1295
01:09:18,000 --> 01:09:20,760
Speaker 4: McDermott to be as flexible. And you know, Milano's like

1296
01:09:20,760 --> 01:09:23,040
Speaker 4: the quarterback of that defense did so much in so

1297
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:25,640
Speaker 4: many different ways, so I think their defense could take

1298
01:09:25,640 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 4: a step back. The other side of the ball is

1299
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:29,280
Speaker 4: where I don't know what the hell the Bills are

1300
01:09:29,280 --> 01:09:31,400
Speaker 4: going to approach this, because one are they just gonna

1301
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 4: go super run heavy and just say we can bully Arizona,

1302
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:35,519
Speaker 4: which they should be able to do.

1303
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:38,600
Speaker 3: Those terrible signings on the interior foreur. That's like, I

1304
01:09:38,640 --> 01:09:40,679
Speaker 3: don't know they paid too much money for those.

1305
01:09:40,960 --> 01:09:41,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this.

1306
01:09:41,920 --> 01:09:45,000
Speaker 4: I love this the scheme that they're running. They just

1307
01:09:45,000 --> 01:09:47,040
Speaker 4: don't have talent on that side of the ball. But

1308
01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:49,439
Speaker 4: do they So do the Bills go bully ball and

1309
01:09:49,560 --> 01:09:51,800
Speaker 4: just run it and in that case, like you probably

1310
01:09:51,840 --> 01:09:54,519
Speaker 4: want an underticket or do they try to come out

1311
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:57,120
Speaker 4: here and get the passing game going again? You can

1312
01:09:57,160 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 4: do that against this Arizona team. You're relying on extremely

1313
01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:05,080
Speaker 4: young corners and Murphy Bunning is not like their secondary

1314
01:10:05,120 --> 01:10:08,920
Speaker 4: is very vulnerable because I feel like you want to

1315
01:10:08,960 --> 01:10:12,400
Speaker 4: figure out this passing attack against the cardinal secondary because

1316
01:10:12,960 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 4: of your next five games, four on the road against

1317
01:10:17,280 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 4: the Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, and Jets. There's your AFC like

1318
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:28,240
Speaker 4: upside chances. So like, do they just not want to

1319
01:10:28,280 --> 01:10:30,600
Speaker 4: show anything because they had that stretch coming up? Do

1320
01:10:30,600 --> 01:10:33,519
Speaker 4: they want to work out the kinks with letting Allen

1321
01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:34,080
Speaker 4: air it out?

1322
01:10:34,400 --> 01:10:34,479
Speaker 3: So?

1323
01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:35,880
Speaker 2: I just don't know. I don't know how the been.

1324
01:10:35,920 --> 01:10:37,719
Speaker 4: They've been really quiet on how they're going to protest.

1325
01:10:37,760 --> 01:10:40,360
Speaker 4: I know some people close to the Bills team, So

1326
01:10:40,880 --> 01:10:43,040
Speaker 4: I don't know. But I don't have anything here here.

1327
01:10:43,040 --> 01:10:44,280
Speaker 4: I just want to see how this plays out.

1328
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:46,160
Speaker 3: I'm leading more and more to the Cardinals after we

1329
01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:48,160
Speaker 3: talk about this, because number one, you just mentioned the

1330
01:10:48,160 --> 01:10:50,360
Speaker 3: schedule for the Bills, so this is a trap game

1331
01:10:50,400 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 3: in Week one, and remember they lost the trap game

1332
01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:53,880
Speaker 3: was it a couple of years ago to the Steelers.

1333
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:55,840
Speaker 3: And this just goes back to what I was saying

1334
01:10:55,880 --> 01:10:58,639
Speaker 3: about Brady. It's like they had a lot of success

1335
01:10:58,640 --> 01:11:02,719
Speaker 3: switching up last year, you know, respect but the receiving

1336
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:05,759
Speaker 3: cord Now no Digs and no Davis. That that hurts

1337
01:11:05,800 --> 01:11:09,200
Speaker 3: in terms of like the defensive making the defensive prepare

1338
01:11:09,240 --> 01:11:12,120
Speaker 3: for you and Digs in the passing it. But also

1339
01:11:12,439 --> 01:11:15,639
Speaker 3: gave Davis a great run blocker, so you're losing him.

1340
01:11:15,680 --> 01:11:18,879
Speaker 3: Like you said, you're trying out MATC. Hollins. No chemistry

1341
01:11:18,920 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 3: with Josh Allen, coleman rookie, some limited chemistry with Josh Allen.

1342
01:11:22,760 --> 01:11:26,879
Speaker 3: Samuel no chemistry with Josh Allen. Josh Allen prone the mistakes,

1343
01:11:26,960 --> 01:11:28,719
Speaker 3: so they probably run the ball, which means it probably

1344
01:11:28,760 --> 01:11:32,000
Speaker 3: stays close and they that's what they did anyway last year.

1345
01:11:32,200 --> 01:11:35,240
Speaker 3: And then the defense, the safeties are always the strong

1346
01:11:35,280 --> 01:11:37,920
Speaker 3: point and they got weaker. So now you're relying more

1347
01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:41,160
Speaker 3: on your corners, which in mcdermotts scheme is just you know,

1348
01:11:41,920 --> 01:11:44,639
Speaker 3: I think you would rather have the safeties be on point,

1349
01:11:44,640 --> 01:11:46,960
Speaker 3: because the Bills have survived without corners. So it's just

1350
01:11:47,400 --> 01:11:49,280
Speaker 3: I don't know. I think the Bills might have some

1351
01:11:49,400 --> 01:11:52,439
Speaker 3: struggles here. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals, uh

1352
01:11:52,800 --> 01:11:54,519
Speaker 3: like that was actually a team I was thinking about

1353
01:11:54,560 --> 01:11:58,599
Speaker 3: for Moneyline Dog. So yeah, I'm probably gonna be on

1354
01:11:58,640 --> 01:12:01,720
Speaker 3: the Cardinals the more this all right, So we got

1355
01:12:01,760 --> 01:12:04,200
Speaker 3: two more games. We don't do Monday Night on the

1356
01:12:04,240 --> 01:12:07,639
Speaker 3: pod if you want to find content on that. One

1357
01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:09,360
Speaker 3: of us will be riding up the Monday night game

1358
01:12:09,360 --> 01:12:12,400
Speaker 3: every weekend. It'll be discussed on other podcasts here on

1359
01:12:12,439 --> 01:12:15,240
Speaker 3: the channel. But we'll end it with the Sunday Night game.

1360
01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:19,360
Speaker 3: But before that, Vegas at the Chargers minus three are

1361
01:12:19,439 --> 01:12:23,280
Speaker 3: the Chargers at home? The total forty and a half.

1362
01:12:24,000 --> 01:12:26,240
Speaker 3: I could still see this game going under the Raiders

1363
01:12:26,240 --> 01:12:28,000
Speaker 3: only about sixteen points. I mean, they played all these

1364
01:12:28,040 --> 01:12:31,439
Speaker 3: backup quarterbacks. But since Piers took over and Chargers Greg

1365
01:12:31,560 --> 01:12:37,200
Speaker 3: Roman coming over at OC Harbaugh and the coach, I

1366
01:12:37,200 --> 01:12:41,639
Speaker 3: think the defense should be better. So yeah, that's kind

1367
01:12:41,640 --> 01:12:43,840
Speaker 3: of my ween, but not really too interested in this one.

1368
01:12:43,880 --> 01:12:44,360
Speaker 3: What about you?

1369
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:47,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I played, I played the under end first half

1370
01:12:47,240 --> 01:12:50,599
Speaker 4: under The Charge is gonna be significantly slower on offense.

1371
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:53,280
Speaker 4: They're gonna go more, run heavy, the weakness of the

1372
01:12:53,360 --> 01:12:56,120
Speaker 4: Raiders defense, and I like their staff talked about. I

1373
01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:58,559
Speaker 4: like Patrick Graham, I like how their scheme they want

1374
01:12:58,560 --> 01:13:02,400
Speaker 4: to prevent explosive play and they do a lot of

1375
01:13:02,400 --> 01:13:05,519
Speaker 4: good stuff with their defensive front. The weakness is still

1376
01:13:05,520 --> 01:13:08,320
Speaker 4: the secondary, but the Chargers don't really have the ride

1377
01:13:08,360 --> 01:13:11,760
Speaker 4: receivers to take advantage. I think that this game will

1378
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:15,400
Speaker 4: be low scoring divisional game early on in the season.

1379
01:13:16,120 --> 01:13:19,559
Speaker 4: Minshew's numbers against the Blitz are bad and minter He's

1380
01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:22,639
Speaker 4: gonna bring the Blitz and this Chargers defense should be

1381
01:13:23,080 --> 01:13:26,479
Speaker 4: much more well schooled and just in the right position

1382
01:13:26,600 --> 01:13:31,719
Speaker 4: more often. So yeah, I think Chargers run heavy, slower.

1383
01:13:32,280 --> 01:13:35,920
Speaker 4: Don't think Minshew's gonna have much success. And for what

1384
01:13:35,960 --> 01:13:38,280
Speaker 4: it's worth, the Chargers like I mean, I have this

1385
01:13:38,360 --> 01:13:40,880
Speaker 4: line about right, because the Chargers home field advantage is

1386
01:13:41,600 --> 01:13:43,880
Speaker 4: just nothing. Last year they're three and six against the

1387
01:13:43,880 --> 01:13:46,960
Speaker 4: spread at home thirty forty eight and two against the

1388
01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:50,240
Speaker 4: spread at home over the last decade, thirty forty eight

1389
01:13:50,280 --> 01:13:53,120
Speaker 4: and two. Like the under your first half in full game,

1390
01:13:54,280 --> 01:13:55,280
Speaker 4: think decides about right?

1391
01:13:55,720 --> 01:13:59,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, agreed. Let's close it out. Lions at the Rim

1392
01:14:00,320 --> 01:14:03,840
Speaker 3: rematch of that wild card playoff matchup last season. The

1393
01:14:04,000 --> 01:14:08,120
Speaker 3: Rams are on the road, the Lions are favored by

1394
01:14:08,160 --> 01:14:14,120
Speaker 3: three and a half, and the total is fifty one. Now,

1395
01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:16,559
Speaker 3: the Lions added a DJ reader. They already had the

1396
01:14:16,600 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 3: number one run defense last year, so the Rams were

1397
01:14:21,560 --> 01:14:23,439
Speaker 3: very aligned on the run, even though they have some

1398
01:14:23,479 --> 01:14:26,280
Speaker 3: good weapons in the past game. So that kind of

1399
01:14:26,320 --> 01:14:29,160
Speaker 3: plays into the Lions heads. I think the defense, you know,

1400
01:14:29,160 --> 01:14:31,479
Speaker 3: they're taking steps to making it, making it better. It

1401
01:14:31,479 --> 01:14:33,040
Speaker 3: looks like it feels like we say that every year.

1402
01:14:33,080 --> 01:14:36,040
Speaker 3: But how are you feeling about this rematch? I know

1403
01:14:36,080 --> 01:14:37,880
Speaker 3: you're on the Rams last time.

1404
01:14:37,960 --> 01:14:42,360
Speaker 4: If I'm not mistaken, yes, I I don't have a

1405
01:14:42,400 --> 01:14:44,160
Speaker 4: strong feel for this game right now. I'll be writing

1406
01:14:44,240 --> 01:14:46,599
Speaker 4: up this game, so make sure you check out action

1407
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:51,120
Speaker 4: workap action work dot com. But over the past three years,

1408
01:14:51,160 --> 01:14:53,320
Speaker 4: just take the Lions. Just bet the line. So thirty

1409
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:55,360
Speaker 4: five and sixteen against the spread the last three is

1410
01:14:55,720 --> 01:14:58,040
Speaker 4: sixty eight point six percent that's the best three year

1411
01:14:58,040 --> 01:15:02,960
Speaker 4: stretches back in twenty sixteen through eighteen with Brady and

1412
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:07,160
Speaker 4: the Patriots and golf indoor golf twenty five and nine

1413
01:15:07,200 --> 01:15:09,720
Speaker 4: against the spread in the past three seasons. Just stupid

1414
01:15:10,600 --> 01:15:16,599
Speaker 4: outdoor not the same success, but indoors at home. I

1415
01:15:16,600 --> 01:15:18,439
Speaker 4: have questions about what's going on with this Rams team.

1416
01:15:18,840 --> 01:15:21,840
Speaker 4: Their special teams are still bad. Ernest Ernest Jones, the interior,

1417
01:15:21,840 --> 01:15:24,280
Speaker 4: the offensive line. They're like thinking about shuffling up. There's

1418
01:15:24,280 --> 01:15:27,280
Speaker 4: no Aaron Donald. But I'll have this written up. No strong,

1419
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:30,639
Speaker 4: strong take as of right now. Maybe maybe lean Lions

1420
01:15:31,120 --> 01:15:34,240
Speaker 4: with leaning over initially just seeing how thinking how this

1421
01:15:34,280 --> 01:15:36,639
Speaker 4: game is gonna play out, But just like the Cowboys

1422
01:15:36,640 --> 01:15:39,799
Speaker 4: and Browns. Another point for that under is both quarterbacks

1423
01:15:39,840 --> 01:15:42,760
Speaker 4: that haven't played usually see some russ earlier. Neither of

1424
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:45,920
Speaker 4: these quarterbacks have played, so maybe there's some rust early on.

1425
01:15:46,200 --> 01:15:47,160
Speaker 2: Look for a live over.

1426
01:15:47,320 --> 01:15:50,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and another thing that could change with because I

1427
01:15:50,040 --> 01:15:51,840
Speaker 3: was thinking about the over as well, but the Lions

1428
01:15:51,880 --> 01:15:54,200
Speaker 3: actually might go for more field goals this year because

1429
01:15:54,479 --> 01:15:57,800
Speaker 3: Jake Bates, you know, never kicked in the NFL, won

1430
01:15:57,840 --> 01:16:00,760
Speaker 3: the job strong strong leg and they went with him.

1431
01:16:00,760 --> 01:16:02,760
Speaker 3: Oh you know, they could have had guys who are

1432
01:16:02,760 --> 01:16:05,640
Speaker 3: seemingly more accurate, but they decided to go abate. So

1433
01:16:05,680 --> 01:16:08,600
Speaker 3: that tells me that they usually go for it. But

1434
01:16:09,200 --> 01:16:12,160
Speaker 3: they might be willing to kick some long field goals

1435
01:16:12,160 --> 01:16:13,839
Speaker 3: and then you're kind of went in the kicker variants

1436
01:16:13,880 --> 01:16:14,920
Speaker 3: decide to total.

1437
01:16:15,000 --> 01:16:18,120
Speaker 4: So well, yeah, then you have a Lions game with Campbell.

1438
01:16:18,120 --> 01:16:19,439
Speaker 4: He's still going to go for a lot. You have

1439
01:16:19,520 --> 01:16:20,280
Speaker 4: the variants there.

1440
01:16:20,560 --> 01:16:22,720
Speaker 2: No, there's no way to shoot your coat that you know.

1441
01:16:23,720 --> 01:16:24,479
Speaker 2: I'm an asshole.

1442
01:16:24,880 --> 01:16:27,519
Speaker 4: Lions get a couple fourth downs, could extend. If not,

1443
01:16:28,240 --> 01:16:30,200
Speaker 4: it might be trouble. But like I said, I'll have

1444
01:16:30,200 --> 01:16:31,720
Speaker 4: written up no strong take right now.

1445
01:16:31,920 --> 01:16:34,519
Speaker 3: All right, that is a wrap for us. Thank you

1446
01:16:34,680 --> 01:16:38,400
Speaker 3: for listening to the Action Network podcast. You can hear

1447
01:16:38,479 --> 01:16:40,719
Speaker 3: more of me every week with my guy Sean Kerner

1448
01:16:40,760 --> 01:16:44,599
Speaker 3: talking Fantasy DFS player, projections, props, all that good stuff

1449
01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:47,639
Speaker 3: over on the Fantasy Flex podcast channel, so make sure

1450
01:16:47,680 --> 01:16:51,640
Speaker 3: you subscribe to that as well as the Action Network podcast.

1451
01:16:51,720 --> 01:16:54,519
Speaker 3: And you can hear Stucky talking college football over on

1452
01:16:54,600 --> 01:16:57,680
Speaker 3: the Big Bets on Campus podcast. Also, be sure to

1453
01:16:57,680 --> 01:17:01,439
Speaker 3: subscribe to the Big Bets on Campus YouTube channel. Really

1454
01:17:01,439 --> 01:17:04,000
Speaker 3: great stuff there from Stuck. I got a couple of

1455
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:10,280
Speaker 3: boys that just follow Stuck's college football picks religiously every week,

1456
01:17:10,360 --> 01:17:12,320
Speaker 3: so be sure to check him out on that. You

1457
01:17:12,320 --> 01:17:15,559
Speaker 3: can find Stuck on X at Stucky two, I'm at

1458
01:17:15,680 --> 01:17:18,439
Speaker 3: Chris Raybond, and of course we're at those same handles

1459
01:17:18,479 --> 01:17:23,120
Speaker 3: on the free award winning Action Network app until week two.

1460
01:17:23,200 --> 01:17:24,880
Speaker 3: Let's get this Money let Go.

1461
01:17:34,720 --> 01:17:38,200
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1462
01:17:38,600 --> 01:17:41,439
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1463
01:17:41,720 --> 01:17:44,360
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1464
01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:45,240
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