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Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. A little programming note

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Speaker 1: for you at the top of our show. Today is

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Speaker 1: the last day that we'll be bringing you the regular

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen dispatches that we've been making for the past year.

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Speaker 1: But Prognosis isn't going anywhere. We'll be off for the

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Speaker 1: rest of the week and then back next week with

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Speaker 1: a new season. In six in depth episodes, we'll go

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Speaker 1: deep on one of the most important stories of our time,

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Speaker 1: the life saving COVID nineteen vaccines and what it means

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Speaker 1: that some people will refuse to take them. The season

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Speaker 1: is called Doubt and it will be in your Prognosis

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Speaker 1: feed on March and now here's what happened in virus

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Speaker 1: news today. Europe's biggest countries, including Germany and France, suspended

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Speaker 1: use of Astra Zenica's COVID nineteen vaccine as fears about

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Speaker 1: its health effects grow. This creates yet another delay for

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Speaker 1: the European Union's inoculation campaign. A growing list of governments

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Speaker 1: have stopped distributing the shots following reports of serious blood clotting,

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Speaker 1: even as the European Unions Drug regulator said the benefits

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Speaker 1: of the vaccine continue to outweigh any risks. Coronavirus cases

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Speaker 1: in the US rose one point to five percent last week,

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Speaker 1: the slowest increase since the pandemic began. It was the

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Speaker 1: second straight week in which the rate of new infections

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Speaker 1: hit a record low. The slowdown comes as the US

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Speaker 1: vaccination effort ramps up. Last week, an age of two

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Speaker 1: point three nine million doses a day were administered, according

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg's Vaccine Tracker. So far, nearly seventy million Americans

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Speaker 1: have received at least one dose of a vaccine, or

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Speaker 1: roughly a quarter of the adult population. Finally, California's seven

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Speaker 1: day positive test rate fell to a record low two percent,

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Speaker 1: according to the state's Health department. California has administered more

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Speaker 1: than eleven point eight million vaccines in total. The data

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Speaker 1: came a day before Los Angeles County, which was the

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Speaker 1: epicenter of the post holiday surge, plans to ease its

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Speaker 1: restrictions on indoor dining and allow restaurants, gyms, museums, and

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Speaker 1: movie theaters to reopen. And now for our main story,

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Speaker 1: This month marks the one year anniversary in the US

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Speaker 1: of nationwide school closures. The Public Health Measure was designed

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Speaker 1: to help stem the spread of COVID nineteen, but in

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Speaker 1: doing so, it's had a profound effect on children. That's

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Speaker 1: in contrast to the disease itself, which rarely makes young

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Speaker 1: people seriously ill. Senior editor Jason Gale spoke to experts

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Speaker 1: about kids and COVID and why keeping children out of

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Speaker 1: the classroom may leave a lasting legacy. Scientists agree that

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Speaker 1: children are capable of transmitting siskov two to other kids

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Speaker 1: and to adults, but younger children in particular don't seem

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Speaker 1: to be major transmitters of the coronavirus. But I think

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Speaker 1: what is clear is that children certainly can transmit the disease,

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Speaker 1: but they are not the major drivers of transmission the community.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's the key taker message that I

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Speaker 1: think very few people would disagree with. Now. This is

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Speaker 1: Nigel Curtis. I'm a patric infectious disease physician and researcher

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Speaker 1: and I work at the University of Melbourne and the

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Speaker 1: Merdle Children's Research Institute at the Royal Children's Hospital. In

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Speaker 1: terms of cases, there's very low cases in the first

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Speaker 1: two decades and then it seems to increase in young adults.

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Speaker 1: But when it comes to severe disease as measured by

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Speaker 1: symptomatic disease and hospitalization and death, that that's exceptionally rare.

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Speaker 1: In fact, deaths are almost almost don't occur under the

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Speaker 1: age of twenty. But it would be wrong to think

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Speaker 1: that children are immune to COVID nineteen harms. Around the world,

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Speaker 1: kids have experienced a rafter them physical abuse, learning gaps, anxiety,

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Speaker 1: and depression. Many of these stem from school closures, social isolation,

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Speaker 1: and the stress inducing consequences of the pandemic. And that's

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Speaker 1: informing considerations for keeping kids in school. If you look

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Speaker 1: at a sort of bigger picture, take a step back

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Speaker 1: and look at the damage that has done to children

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Speaker 1: by not going to school and all the other consequences,

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Speaker 1: you know, the balance is really in favor of being

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Speaker 1: very careful about school closures. The disruption has been unprecedented.

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Speaker 1: More than one point six billion learners were affected in

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Speaker 1: one ninety countries alone, according to UNESCO. Although alternatives to

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Speaker 1: in person learning have been introduced in many places, some

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Speaker 1: four hundred and seventy million pupils can't get access to

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Speaker 1: online or other required content for remote education. In the

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Speaker 1: United States, one in four kids lacks that needed tools

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Speaker 1: for remote learning. Aid groups say the children said this month,

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Speaker 1: we're talking not just short term, very long term effects

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Speaker 1: on them of the physical, mental, and emotional health of

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Speaker 1: children the future. If you think of the ramifications in

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Speaker 1: low income countries, that are even greater in terms of

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Speaker 1: lost opportunities for venizations UM and obviously those countries children

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Speaker 1: have a shorter periods of a shorter period of total education.

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Speaker 1: So if you lose six months or a year of education,

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Speaker 1: that is a larger proportion of your total education. So

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Speaker 1: the ramifications are much greater in low middle income countries. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to start with the fact that

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Speaker 1: this has been an evolving conversing. And Anderson is deputy

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Speaker 1: director of the JOHNS. Hopkins Center for Safe and Healthy

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Speaker 1: Schools in Baltimore. I asked whether the pandemic will further

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Speaker 1: disadvantage some kids in the United States. The equity question

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Speaker 1: continues to be a major question for those in education

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Speaker 1: because we know that the estimates have ranged from as

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Speaker 1: low as three percent to as high as temper set

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Speaker 1: of students who have been disengaged for almost the better

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Speaker 1: part of a year. Students from particular socio economic and

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Speaker 1: racial groups are likely to be overrepresented among those who

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Speaker 1: drop out of school. McKinsey and co. Estimated in June

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Speaker 1: that learning loss will probably be greatest among youth from

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Speaker 1: low income families and black and Hispanic students, exacerbating existing

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Speaker 1: achievement gaps by fifteen to the consulting firm predicted u

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Speaker 1: S students in grades K through twelve may lose on

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Speaker 1: average the equivalent of a year of full time work

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Speaker 1: and lifetime earnings solely as a result of COVID related

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Speaker 1: learning losses. But it's not that schools haven't wanted to

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Speaker 1: open safely, and it says we have seen that schools

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Speaker 1: have had this kind of of trial by fire in

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Speaker 1: terms of trying to reopen successfully, and that many schools

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Speaker 1: have had to use a system of using different ideas

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Speaker 1: around what it would take to reofer and and then

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Speaker 1: pivoting when those ideas did not work well, meaning that

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Speaker 1: some have had to go back and had to close. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And that's been a global challenge. For one thing, school

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Speaker 1: buildings pose a challenge. We still have classrooms that don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily have windows or strong ventilation systems, and so we

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Speaker 1: know that has to be a priority, particularly in some

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Speaker 1: of these older buildings. You have to, you know, remember

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Speaker 1: that a lot of the buildings, especially in our large

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Speaker 1: urban cities, were built at the turn of the last century.

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Speaker 1: They looked like fortresses because they were meant to connote safety,

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Speaker 1: and as they've gotten older, they're harder to remediate, they're

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Speaker 1: harder to renovate, and that sees that's is part of

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Speaker 1: the challenge moving forward. And I just think that we

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Speaker 1: are in a place where we want to press reset

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Speaker 1: about the reopening of our schools, and so we have

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Speaker 1: some some time now to think about what we want

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Speaker 1: our schools to be and how we can reconceptualize using

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Speaker 1: some of those buildings that have been historically challenge. Modes

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Speaker 1: of teaching and the tools and technologies use for learning

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Speaker 1: will also change in it says, I think that people

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Speaker 1: expect that face to face learning is the ideal, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think that we are ever going quite back

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Speaker 1: to that. I think what you're starting to see is

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Speaker 1: that there's just more technology. So whereas you may have

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Speaker 1: just had students have interaction on a laptop, now you're

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Speaker 1: seeing them use multiple devices all at the same time.

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Speaker 1: And it's also that they're learning how to engage with

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Speaker 1: one another socially. You're seeing that teachers are teaching both

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Speaker 1: to hybrid learners as well as to their face to

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Speaker 1: face students. And the technology is what is the bridge

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Speaker 1: for that to happen, so students can have root projects,

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Speaker 1: so that they can have lectures happening in their classes.

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Speaker 1: There is much more engagement that's happening, and it's happening

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Speaker 1: across multiple devices. PRIVID nineteen will leave its mink on

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Speaker 1: these generations children in so many profound and enduring ways

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Speaker 1: got the pandemics effect on schools may change the way

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Speaker 1: we learn forever. That was Jason Gale, and that's it

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Speaker 1: for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from

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Speaker 1: one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot

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Speaker 1: com slash Coronavirus and if you like the show, please

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Speaker 1: leave us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners

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Speaker 1: find our global reporting. The Prognosis podcast is produced by

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Speaker 1: Tophor Foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main

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Speaker 1: segment was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo

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Speaker 1: Sidrin Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. We

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Speaker 1: also want to take a moment to thank the people

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Speaker 1: who helped make the show over the past year and

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Speaker 1: a court Kristin V. Brown, Michelle fa Cortez, John Tozzi,

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Speaker 1: Drew Armstrong, Cynthia Coon's, James Peyton, Katie Boyce, Jared Sandberg,

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Speaker 1: and Jordan Gaspoure. Francesco Levie is head of Bloomberg Podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. M