1 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 1: Welcome to Talking Politics with Me, Si Cupp. Great show 2 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: for you today. My friend and colleague Josh Rogan from 3 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: the Washington Post is joining later to tell us everything 4 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: we're not being told about the Iran War. I think 5 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: that's really important, because you know, Trump talks a lot 6 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 1: about the war. He's said a lot, he talks, he 7 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: talks a lot about it, but he doesn't say anything 8 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: that's important. And I'm not even sure he's saying things 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 1: that are true. We need to know what we don't 10 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: know about the Iran War. You know, the one that 11 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 1: Trump has said we've already won, but that we also 12 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: need more winning. The one that Trump has said is 13 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 1: basically over but might go on for a while. The 14 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 1: one that Trump has said would not require boots on 15 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: the ground, but now may require boots on the ground. 16 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: The one that Trump said was about regime change, but 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: also not about regime change, and about oil, but also 18 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: not about oil. I mean to be sure, he is 19 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: telling us a lot about the war. He goes on 20 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: TV every day, calls the Fox News every day, somewhere 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 1: He's talking about the Iran War all the time, incessantly. 22 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: That doesn't mean we know anything about it. Doesn't mean 23 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 1: we can trust what he's saying. So I'm more interested 24 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: in what he's not saying. And I'd love to hear 25 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: from someone who knows something unlike Trump about the war. 26 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: So we're gonna do that in a little bit with 27 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: Josh Rogan. Very excited, but first, I uh, I picked 28 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: up on something this week. I'm really curious to know 29 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: if you did too. It's a ron adjacent, it's iron related, 30 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: but it's a bigger it's a bigger story. President Trump 31 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: was at a Crime Task Force roundtable in Memphis, Tennessee earlier, 32 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: and then we talking about crime, right, But at some 33 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 1: point he detours. He brings up Iran and points at 34 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: Pete Hegseth, who was there, and here's what he says, 35 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 1: take a listen. 36 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 2: You can take a stop and make a little journey 37 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 2: into the Middle East and eliminate a big problem. And Pete, 38 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 2: I think you were the first one to speak up 39 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 2: and you said let's do it because you can't let 40 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,519 Speaker 2: them have a nuclear weapon? 41 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 3: Okay'd you get that? 42 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: Pointed at Pete Hegseth said, I think you were the 43 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: first to say we should go and go and do 44 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:39,959 Speaker 1: this war. At any other time any other president, this 45 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: would be a compliment. This would be a president shouting 46 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: out a cabinet member for what he thought was a 47 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: really good idea. But seasoned Trump watchers, well, their eyebrows 48 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 1: were raised at this very subtle but discernible sign of 49 00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 1: what may be to come. It would be, after all, 50 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: very Trumpian and convenient to blame shift and make the 51 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 1: war all Pete's idea, especially when it's starting to really 52 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: slump in the polls, and boy is it slumping in 53 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: the polls. New pulling from CBS News YouGov shows an 54 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: increasingly bearish public when it comes to the war, fifty 55 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: seven percent saying it's going somewhat or very badly. Sixty 56 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: three percent believe the war will make the US economy 57 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: weaker in the short term, while a whopping ninety two 58 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: percent ninety two percent say the most important thing the 59 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: US should do with regard to Iran right now is 60 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: end the conflict as quickly as possible ninety two percent. Guys, 61 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: we know that Trump watches public opinion closely. He's aware 62 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: of the polls, even if he doesn't want to believe him, 63 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: and it also doesn't help. Here's some more in Hell 64 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: that reports rumors swirling all around DC right now that 65 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: Republicans both on the Hill and inside the administration are 66 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: saying they have zero confidence in Pete haig Seth right now. 67 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 1: So to my ears, Trump pointing at Pete and saying 68 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 1: you did this sounded very much to me like Trump 69 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: is seeding the ground to blame Pete when this war 70 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: goes haywire and he no longer wants to own it. 71 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: It's not the first time he has said this war 72 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: was kind of Pete's idea. Now I don't believe it 73 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 1: was Pete's idea, but he's saying this for a reason. Okay, 74 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: there's a point to it, and it could mean that 75 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 1: Pete's job is in jeopardy. Now listen, I don't want 76 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: Pete haig Seth prosecuting this war, but we're in it, 77 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: and it would be really crazy to pull him mid operation. 78 00:04:56,600 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: But Trump is crazy. He could do it. I'd be 79 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: worried if I repeat, right right now, that's exactly what 80 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: he did in Minnesota another operation right pulled Christy Nome 81 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 1: put someone else in there. She knows all too well 82 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: that Trump only loves you until he doesn't. So when 83 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 1: Ice raids in Minneapolis turned deadly, and the more sordid 84 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 1: headlines around her, her spending, and her personal life got 85 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: to unbearable. Trump dumped the glammed up grifter with an 86 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: unceremonious thank you and a move to a made up 87 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: new post. 88 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 3: That could be Pete, That could. 89 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 1: Be you, Pete. The same happened to former Kennedy Center 90 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: head Rick Ronell Ricknell. 91 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 3: Rick Rennell has. 92 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 1: Long been one of Trump's favorites, but he too lost 93 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: his job this month after overseeing plummeting ticket sales and 94 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: a mass exodus of artists and scathing headlines. And that 95 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: that's after he put Trump's name on the building. Still 96 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:03,799 Speaker 1: got fired, and he was sent to a made up post. 97 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,720 Speaker 1: I think a couple other Trump cabinet members may want 98 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: to prepare for early exits while we're at it. Attorney 99 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: General Pambondy her DOJ has been rightfully dragged through the 100 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: mud for its total incompetence and political hackery, overseeing multiple 101 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: failed attempts at indicting Trump's political opponents. 102 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 3: They're trying to. 103 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: Resurrect those this week, overseeing an obvious cover up of 104 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: the Epstein files and really botching that losing so much 105 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 1: talent it now has to recruit prosecutors straight out of 106 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: law school. I mean, what an embarrassment. Maybe that's why 107 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: Pambondy recently hung the North Korea coded banner of Trump 108 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: on DOJ headquarters. 109 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 3: That's right. Go to Washington, DC. 110 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: You'll see Trump's face on the Department of Justice, a 111 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: coequal but separate brand of government. Trump's face is on 112 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: it as if he's Chairman Mao or Kim Jong Un. 113 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 1: It's insane. D and I Tulca Gabbard might not not 114 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: be long for this world either. As we've previously discussed, 115 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: she's been excluded from high level meetings at the White House, 116 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 1: so much so that the joke among aids is that 117 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: d and I actually stands for JUNEI invite, just don't 118 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: invite her. 119 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 3: She's not relevant. 120 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: Even Trump has publicly dismissed her advice, she might want 121 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: to hang a banner at DNI. 122 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 3: I don't know. 123 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: If you're wondering why these folks continue to work for 124 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: a guy who humiliates them, sidelines them, dumps them, and 125 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: moves them to fake posts, Well that's easy. They work 126 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: for him because they have no principles, integrity or self respect. 127 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 3: Boom, that's it. 128 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: And when you're solely motivated by naked power grabs and money, 129 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: you can probably put up with a lot. But I 130 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: just think about all of these people going back into 131 00:07:59,520 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: the world. 132 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 3: This is how my brain works. 133 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: First, I think about these people and what their parents 134 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: and kids must think of them, because again, like I'm 135 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: kind of like an EmPATH to a fault, Like I 136 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: try to put myself in everyone's position and try to 137 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: imagine what life must be like for those people. 138 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 3: Now, that is not healthy. 139 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: That gets me into a lot of mental health trouble, 140 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: believe me, But I do it. So I think, like 141 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: what do pam Bondi's parents think of her? What do 142 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: Cash Betel's kids think of him if he has them. 143 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: I don't even know what do Jade Vance's parents think 144 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 1: of him? 145 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 3: Like, I just don't. 146 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 1: I can't wrap my mind around how these people sleep 147 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: at night and maneuver through the world. But I also 148 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 1: think about what happens when they go back into the 149 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: world after they leave this administration. Whether you're Pete or 150 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: Tulsi or Pambondi or Cash Ptel, I mean all of them, 151 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: what credibility do they. 152 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 3: Have anywhere. 153 00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: Are they just looking at a future of like hosting 154 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: news shows. What law firm would hire Pambondi, what security 155 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: or law enforcement outfit would hire cash Betel. They've just 156 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: torched whatever legitimacy they ever had, and that wasn't much, 157 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: just to carry Trump's water and grift off the American people. 158 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: I just don't know how they maneuver through the world. 159 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: What do they tell themselves? What do they tell themselves 160 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 1: they're really doing here? What lie have they told themselves 161 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: to get through the day and sleep at night feel 162 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: good about their entries in the history books, which will 163 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: not be kind. 164 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 3: I don't know. Can I have what they're on? 165 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: Sounds amazing to be that delusional? Or maybe you just 166 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: don't care and you're like, I'll be the villain who 167 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: cares I'm making money. 168 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 3: I don't know. I can't relate to it at all. 169 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: And it just makes I'm sure it makes you I 170 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: feel the same, like it just makes you want justice 171 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: come up and karma for all these awful people making 172 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: awful decisions and getting rewarded for it. 173 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:12,319 Speaker 3: I get you. I'm with you. 174 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: I share in the desire for justice and karma, which 175 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:21,959 Speaker 1: leads to me to my final thought before we take 176 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: a break and talk to Josh Brogan on the other side. 177 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: Something we talked about one of the last pods was 178 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: the government shutdown over DHS funding and how it was 179 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 1: impacting airports. Okay, well, as of this moment, we're still 180 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 1: in a shutdown. It's the third and six months. We're 181 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: forty days with this one, and TSA agents still aren't 182 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 1: getting paid. Many are calling in sick, many are quitting 183 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: to go find other work. Who could blame them, and 184 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: it's making air travel a nightmare as many families are 185 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: flying for spring break. So much back and forth in 186 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: Congress over how to end this stalemate, but ultimately we're 187 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: still in it. 188 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 2: Now. 189 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: There is some news this week after Trump issued an 190 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 1: execus of order to start paying TSA agents again, the 191 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: Senate late Thursday night did unanimously approve a funding package 192 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: to reopen DHS without funding ICE, So nobody gets anything 193 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: they wanted. Great, good job, but that still has to 194 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: go to the House. We're Speaker, Mike Johnson will have 195 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 1: to maneuver it through, you know, Conservatives who do want 196 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: ICE funded. So still no relief at the airports until 197 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: that's a done deal. And even if that gets to 198 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:31,559 Speaker 1: President Trump's desk, today could still be weeks before TSA 199 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: agents start getting paid again. Yeah, and add to that, 200 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: this week, Trump, because he's insane, is also threatening to 201 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: send the National. 202 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 3: Guard to the airports to do what to do what? 203 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 3: I don't know. 204 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: He's already sent ICE agents. No one knows what their 205 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 1: job is there either. Here is what one TSA agent 206 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: said about ICE showing up. 207 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 3: I love this. 208 00:11:55,800 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: Listen to this. He said, they Ice agent. They're the 209 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: reason we're not getting paid. And now I'm working next 210 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: to that person and they're getting paid to do nothing. 211 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 1: They're not trained. It takes six months to train a 212 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: TSA officer. They've received none of that. They arrived on 213 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 1: Monday and now they're hanging out in the break room 214 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: doing nothing. They're warming up their lunch. I don't know 215 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: what you're hungry from. You didn't do anything. It's so sad. 216 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: But imagine you're that TSA agent. You're not getting paid 217 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: because Congress is fighting over whether to fund ICE. Then 218 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: ICE shows up to watch you do the job you're 219 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: not getting paid for while they get paid to stand there. 220 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: It's insane. But yeah, let's also send in the National Guard. 221 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: Let's militarize our airports. A great idea. You know it 222 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: is a great idea. Talk about talk about Carmen and 223 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: come up its injustice. I just saw that Delta's CEO 224 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: announced no more cutting in line for Congress. 225 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 3: I love this, you guys. 226 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: Members of Congress sometimes get security escorts to cut around 227 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: long security lines, which during this insanity has been tremendously 228 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: helpful for them, as you can imagine. 229 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 3: But Delta CEO says, no, mo, I love this. 230 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,319 Speaker 1: More of this, more making lawmakers live by the dumb 231 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 1: decisions they make that then we all have to live by. 232 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 3: But they don't. More of this. Yeah, no special treatment. 233 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: We gotta wait in long lines TISA, because you idiots 234 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: can't pass a funding bill, you don't get to cut 235 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: the line. 236 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 3: Love it, bravo Delta. 237 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: Okay, after a quick break, we'll talk to my friend 238 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: Josh Rogan about what Trump is not telling us about 239 00:13:45,440 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: the war in Iran. Welcome back to talking politics. I'm 240 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 1: so glad to be joined now by my friend and colleague, 241 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: Josh Rogan. He is the lead global security analyst at 242 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 1: the Washington Post. He's author of Chaos under Heaven. Trump 243 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: she and the battle for the twenty first century. And 244 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: he's so smart on issues of foreign policy and national security. 245 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 3: Josh thrilled to have you here. Oh great to be 246 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 3: with you. 247 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: Okay, So what I promised my listeners here was that 248 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: you were going to tell us what we don't know 249 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: about the Iran war because Trump is talking a lot 250 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: about it. 251 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 3: He's talking too much about it. 252 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: He's sound like a teenage girl with a secret and 253 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: he just can't not talk about it. But I don't 254 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: think he's saying much that is either substantive or frankly true. 255 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 1: And this is saying something. But as much as I'll 256 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 1: never trust what Iran is saying, Trump it feels to me, 257 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: is doing as much, if not more, propaganda as Iran is. 258 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: So much of the messaging seems to me meant for 259 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: like Iran's ears, and not really telling us anything real 260 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: that's going on. So I want to get your take. 261 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 1: Let's start with the latest. Trump announced a pause in 262 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: striking Iran's energy plants and says talks are going, well, 263 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: what can you tell us about that? 264 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 3: That he might not be right? 265 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: Right? Right? 266 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 4: A lot of people you know tell me, well, I 267 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 4: wish Trump would just like stop, you know, doing sort 268 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 4: of this like train of thought Jack Kerouac, you know, nonsensical, 269 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 4: endless stream of consciousness on. 270 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 3: The Iran word. 271 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 4: I'm totally boring, Okay, I want to Yeah, I want 272 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 4: him to keep talking because every time he talks, we 273 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 4: we don't learn exactly where the truth is, but we 274 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 4: learned that what his spin is, and if you can 275 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 4: we can deconstruct that back to the reporting, you can 276 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 4: triangulate the best obtainable version of the truth in some cases, 277 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 4: which is better. 278 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: We're first engineering for trying pin. 279 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, we're taking what we know about his addled mind 280 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 4: and then trying to understand that filter and then work 281 00:15:58,320 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 4: backwards towards what how he. 282 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 3: Might got there. 283 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 4: And it's the n imperfect science, to be sure, but 284 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 4: there's a lot of information there. And the other reason 285 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 4: I like it is because it makes it very easy 286 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 4: to dunk on Scott Jennings on CNN or any of 287 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 4: these maga people when they're on TV towing the party line, 288 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 4: because when Trump keeps talking, he changes the party line 289 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 4: every two hours, so there's no way that they can 290 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 4: tow the party line, which is their only job on 291 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 4: these shows to do so. Usually if someone anyone is 292 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 4: like trying and defend the war and they're like, oh, 293 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 4: US and Israel on the same page, all I have 294 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 4: to do is quote Donald Trump, no, you said, we're 295 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 4: not on the same page. Or they're like, oh, you know, 296 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 4: the US and prepared for all of the Iranian retaliation. 297 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 4: What Donald Trump said, he was completely shocked. 298 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: He just said, yeah, well you could get him on 299 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: anything there because you said everything and nothing right. 300 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 4: And he changes his mind the story every day. So 301 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 4: that's sort of like kind of destroys the argument that 302 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 4: there that this is going to plan, right, that's the 303 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 4: one thing. It's like, oh, this is everything's going to plan. 304 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 4: I don't think so, Like if you don't believe your eyes, 305 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 4: just believe the president. It's definitely not going to plan 306 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 4: too that we that were on top of it. And 307 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 4: then this is gonna end pretty soon, because that's what 308 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 4: Trump keeps saying, Oh it's gonna end pretty soon. 309 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 3: He wants it to end really soon. It's not gonna 310 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 3: end really soon. 311 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 4: So he's totally wrong about that, but at least we 312 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 4: know that's what he wants, and that's factory into and 313 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 4: that gets to your question, which is like Okay, you 314 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,719 Speaker 4: could say he extended the deadline for attacking energy infrastructure 315 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 4: and Iran for five days. I think a more honest 316 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 4: way to say that would be that Trump threatened to 317 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 4: commit a war crime against the Iranian people by blowing 318 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 4: up civilian energy infrastructure, which is totally beyond balance. That's 319 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 4: what Putin does, That's what the Ironians do. By the way, 320 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 4: we're supposed to not be the war criminals. They were 321 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 4: supposed to be against the war criminals. And then when 322 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 4: he got up to the line, he takoed out. And 323 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 4: why not because he was all of a sudden found 324 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,639 Speaker 4: like some sort of moral objection to war crimes because 325 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 4: the markets didn't like it. Okay, So now because we've 326 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,479 Speaker 4: seen sort of the markets, you know, actually factor in 327 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 4: all of the taco trades, to the weekly beats of 328 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 4: the opening and closing and the ups and the downs. Again, 329 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 4: it's another piece of that information. And none of that 330 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 4: has anything to do with what's going on in Iran, 331 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 4: much less in Pakistan where they're trying to negotiate this 332 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 4: like you know, bank shot through the Pakistani military, which 333 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 4: seems like a worthwhile endeavor if it was done well, 334 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:22,640 Speaker 4: which is not being done well. 335 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 1: Well, speaking of Pakistan, the straight of horror moves Trump 336 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: saying Iran just allowed ten oil tankers to go through 337 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: as a present with Pakistani flags. 338 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:33,479 Speaker 3: What's going on there that we don't know? 339 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 4: So the best understanding we have is they're trying to 340 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 4: figure out who's really in charge, and it's like a 341 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 4: proof of life. Okay, how do we know you're the 342 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 4: guy in charge? Well, i'll let eight tankers through. That'll 343 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:44,719 Speaker 4: at least prove that I have the power to let 344 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 4: eight tankers through. That means you can get can you talking? 345 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 4: That's about as far as that goes, And he wants 346 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 4: to pretend that that's some sort of diplomatic breakthrough in 347 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 4: order to justify him backing down from threatening war crimes 348 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 4: against Iran, because he doesn't want the markets to go berserk. 349 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 4: So he's you know, but again, best obtainable version is 350 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 4: that he's holding on to this prospect of talks in 351 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 4: order to justify what he wanted to do anyway, which 352 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 4: is to bluff. He bluffed. They called him on the bluff. 353 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 4: Now he's backing down from the bluff, and they've got 354 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 4: him where they want him. The strait is still closed. 355 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 4: They still got, according to today's reports, two thirds of 356 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 4: their missiles. You know, we might have killed let's say 357 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,919 Speaker 4: we killed one thousand IRGC guys, Well they got one 358 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 4: hundred thousand, so that's ninety thousand left they've got. 359 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 3: Iran has millions of men under arms. 360 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 4: Okay, So this whole idea that we can kill them 361 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,400 Speaker 4: all and then just like let the Iranian people sort 362 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 4: of figure it out later, is not rooted in any reality. 363 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 4: And basically what's happening is that now the administration is 364 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 4: suddenly realized that unconditional surrender was a ridiculous goal. Trump 365 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 4: has told them to wrap it up. He's getting bored. 366 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 4: He wants out. He wants to go have his meeting 367 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 4: with Jijingping. That's what he really wants to do. He 368 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 4: wants to go to Beijing and have this chummy meeting 369 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 4: with Jijenping. He's been waiting for it all this time. 370 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 4: This is screwing with that, and the numbers are bad, 371 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 4: you know, people are people don't like it, and it's it's. 372 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 3: So he wants out, but there's no out. 373 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 4: And of course, what happens in all of these situations, 374 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 4: which if he had bothered to consult with any of 375 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 4: the regional experts or people who had ever worked on 376 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 4: these issues before. For any reason, he would have understood that. 377 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 4: You think that's the story of every single war. Es see, 378 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 4: Oh we have a very good reason for going in. 379 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 4: Oh well, we didn't have a good reason. 380 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 3: But don't worry. 381 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 4: It's gonna be fine. We're gonna get out quick, and 382 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 4: it's gould be easy. Oh wait, it's not going to 383 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 4: be easy. We're going to get you back in. And 384 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 4: then that's the escalation trap which he walked into, which 385 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,159 Speaker 4: everyone was shouting, don't walk into it, don't walk in. 386 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 4: It's like when you're at the movies and like you know, 387 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 4: you're watching, like scream, don't go in there. You're gonna 388 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 4: get killed. Yes, and they can't hear you, and they 389 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 4: just walk in. So anyway, so now he's hit what's 390 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 4: his only option that he's being given by the yes 391 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 4: men that surround him, which is escalate, escalate to de escalate. 392 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 4: If we double down, then Iran's going to come to 393 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 4: the table. If we put ten thousand troops in Iran's 394 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 4: somehow that's going to make the situation better. 395 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 3: And that is a classic escalation letter. 396 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 4: It's a fool's errand it's it's the definition of how 397 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 4: quagmires get started again. 398 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 3: Very very predictable, but very sad to see play out. 399 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: Well to that, Trump has framed this war as a 400 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: quick excursion. You and I know better. We've covered a 401 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 1: lot of these. But what can you tell us? I mean, 402 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,719 Speaker 1: the way I understand it, Iran's been preparing for a 403 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: very long war of attrition for like twenty years. Like, 404 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 1: if we quit, can they That doesn't mean they quit, right, of. 405 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 4: Course, not right. I mean, first of all, it's I 406 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,199 Speaker 4: think incursion is what he means. Excursion is like when 407 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 4: you go to the beach for the weekend incursion. But 408 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 4: setting that aside, people always ask me to oh, well, 409 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 4: is it true that we didn't have plans for this 410 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 4: or the plans? And then you know, you meet with 411 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 4: these military guys, they're like, oh, yeah, we spent thirty 412 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 4: years planning, We had plenty of plans. Oh but wait, 413 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 4: the White housband care about that. They didn't reasult any 414 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 4: of those plans. Yeah, it's like, oh, you can take 415 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 4: the reservation, but only if you hold the reservation. 416 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,880 Speaker 3: It's the holding that's important, that's the really important part. 417 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:05,920 Speaker 3: Anyone could just take them. 418 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,199 Speaker 4: So you can have lots and lots of plans, but 419 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 4: if no one actually cares about those plans, then they're worthless. 420 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 4: And that's the situation we're in. Somebody told him that 421 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 4: this was just like Venezuela. And I don't know if 422 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 4: that somebody was Lindsay Gramm or bb Netta Yahu or 423 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 4: A Loomer. Yeah, we're all three. They told him this 424 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 4: is good, this is rans just like Venezuela. Now were 425 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,360 Speaker 4: those people lying or were they horribly wrong? I don't 426 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,400 Speaker 4: know what's in their hearts, but either way we get 427 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 4: the same horrible result, which is that, oh wait, it's 428 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 4: not like Venezuela. The Iranians fought the Iraqis for eight years, 429 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 4: they lost six hundred thousand people, and they still didn't 430 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 4: give up. So you think the regime is going to 431 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 4: give up after four weeks because Trump is like, oh, 432 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 4: you know, yeah, because he's like, oh, after all, let's 433 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 4: come to a deal. Nor and for the running regime, 434 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 4: survival is winning. And now it's all but been conceded 435 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 4: that they will survive because obviously Trump's not willing to 436 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 4: commit the years and years of blood and treasure that 437 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 4: it would take to actually change the regime. He hasn't 438 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 4: mentioned the Iranian people and their freedom and democracy, and 439 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 4: over two weeks he used to mention it. Haven't heard 440 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 4: about it in more than two weeks. Obviously he doesn't 441 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 4: care about that. So he's trying to revise the goals 442 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 4: down and then essentially to save out. Yeah, and it's 443 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 4: essentially admitting that the goals won't be achieved, or the 444 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 4: or the goals were unrealistic, and the Iranians are not 445 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 4: have no incentive to to help him back out of 446 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 4: the mess that he made. And these rallies are not 447 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 4: going to stop either. They have a completely different set 448 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 4: of objectives in a different timeline. As far as they're concerned, 449 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 4: the work can go on forever because they see it 450 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 4: as in their strategic interest to keep mowing the lawn 451 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 4: and killing the rebindings and. 452 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 3: Whatever. 453 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 4: They have different strategic calculation, which we can talk about 454 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 4: for sure, but it's not Trump's. You know, that's not 455 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 4: what Trump wants. He wants to get the hell out 456 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 4: of there, and he can't. He's stuck, and he's just 457 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 4: figuring it out. 458 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 1: If Trump gets bored and quits, what are what do 459 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: you think the first couple of things that would happen 460 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 1: on the Irani inside would be Yeah, I. 461 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 3: Think basically we're looking at two scenarios. 462 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,920 Speaker 4: One is that Trump says stop okay, and the US 463 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 4: military's yes, sir, and they stop okay, and then we're 464 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 4: everyone sort of sits around for a couple of days, 465 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 4: what's gonna happen, and we understand a new normal where 466 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,119 Speaker 4: there's straight up Forore. News is still blocked, Irani is 467 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,360 Speaker 4: still control that they're still may Maybe they're not attacking 468 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 4: as much, but they still are hitting the ships that 469 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 4: don't defy them. They're still threatening all over both allies. 470 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,359 Speaker 4: The Israelis are still bombing, they're still hitting Israel. So 471 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 4: there's the best case scenario, if you can call it, 472 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 4: that is that we stop and the war keeps going 473 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,359 Speaker 4: on in some sort of like low boil medium boil 474 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 4: thing where it just without us, like kind of like 475 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 4: what Lebanon looks like like they've been Israeli has been, 476 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 4: you know, conducting operations in Lebanon this whole time. There's 477 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 4: a ground offensive going on. We don't talk about it. 478 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 4: It's over there. We're too busy whatever. So there could 479 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 4: be that that's the best case scenario. What I think 480 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 4: is more likely, quite unfortunately, is that Trump says stop, 481 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 4: the Iranians say fuck you, and and they keep attacking 482 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 4: and trying to like, oh, fuck me, fuck you, and 483 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 4: then he gets back in. 484 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:04,959 Speaker 3: They'll hit something that and then we have about keep 485 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,399 Speaker 3: doing probably like a data. 486 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 4: Center or you know what I mean, something that like 487 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,199 Speaker 4: a crypto data center, and he'll be like, not my 488 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 4: crypto data center, and then back to the races, and 489 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 4: then he's like, oh, fuck me, fuck you. Here's ten 490 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 4: thousand troops and now we've got ten thousand troops in 491 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 4: Iran bogged down. 492 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 1: And now it's endless war. 493 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's that's the worst. 494 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 1: Well, thank you for thank you, I guess, but no, 495 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 1: but this is what we need to hear. 496 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 3: And this is the reality of the situation as first 497 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 3: it is. 498 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 4: It's going to get worse before it gets better, and 499 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 4: the only thing we can do is be honest with it, 500 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 4: you know. And when Tulci Gabbert is the voice of 501 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,120 Speaker 4: reason in the administration, you know something has gone horribly 502 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,879 Speaker 4: off the round, you know. But what she said was 503 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 4: true that you have a justification that we that the. 504 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 3: Administration, Yeah, there was no intentions were. 505 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 4: Not honest, okay, And and whatever plans there were. 506 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 3: They were not respected. And now they're irrelevant. 507 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 1: And I mean, listen, she's defending it now because she 508 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 1: has no principles. But you and I have known who 509 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: Tulsi is for a long time covering Syria, and it's 510 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 1: it's crazy, it's crazy what has happened considering the America 511 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,479 Speaker 1: first pitch he made that got a lot of people, 512 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,120 Speaker 1: a lot of strange bedfellows out of bed to vote 513 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: for him, right, and they really believed, you know, the 514 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 1: Tulsis the Dave Smith's either they really believed or they 515 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 1: were just onto the grift or whatever or both, yeah, 516 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 1: or both. And now who suddenly don't I mean some care, 517 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 1: but some don't don't care, and are are defended and 518 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 1: are defending this and not telling the truth about how 519 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 1: involved this will become. 520 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 4: Exactly Joe Kent problematic. But at least he resigned as principle, 521 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 4: That's right. 522 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 1: Okay, So before we go, we always end this pod 523 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: with we call it the exit pole. It's three questions 524 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 1: of varying degrees of seriousness. It's a way to get 525 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: to know our guests a little bit better. So one is, 526 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: what is your favorite movie about politics or war? 527 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 3: Oh? Platoon for sure. Platoon. Okay, Platoon, go watch it. 528 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,479 Speaker 3: It's every bit as repent today. That's for boys, but 529 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 3: I'll go watch it. Okay. Most war movies I think 530 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 3: are for boys. 531 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: No, I just had this conversation with Adam Kinsinger. I 532 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: actually believe that there are some war movies that make 533 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 1: an effort, like Atonement. Sure, great war movie, but there's 534 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 1: something in it for me. There's a love story, there's 535 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:30,919 Speaker 1: some drama, there's some intrigue. 536 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 3: Interesting. 537 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 1: Of course I'm generalizing. Maybe there are lots of women 538 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 1: who like war movies, but I don't. Okay, in addition 539 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 1: to yourself, who's someone we should all be reading to 540 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: know more about what's happening in a run? 541 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:44,200 Speaker 3: Yeah? 542 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 4: I mean, I like Jason Rezion spent five hundred and 543 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 4: forty four days in Evan prison and somehow did not 544 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 4: come out as extremist from one way or the other, 545 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 4: the most measured. 546 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: Right, smart, No, you know what, he came out A journalist, 547 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 1: came when in. A journalist came out. 548 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 4: Journalists exactly and always keeps the rinting people at the 549 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,920 Speaker 4: front of the story, which I think is the most 550 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 4: important thing. They're the ones who suffer most. They suffer 551 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 4: from our bombs, they suffer from their own regime, and 552 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 4: they need a voice. Follow Jason, He's great. 553 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,719 Speaker 1: Jason's great, Okay, and in it. Sorry, last question is 554 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 1: how do we save our democracy? 555 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 4: Oh, there's an assumption baked in there that it needs saving, 556 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,199 Speaker 4: that it can be saved. Oh that's worse. Okay, you know, 557 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 4: you know. I think that essentially what we're heading into 558 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 4: is a new form of democracy, and what we can 559 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 4: do is we can steer that there's no going back. 560 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 4: The one hundred men, one hundred horses camp put Humpty 561 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 4: Dumpy back together again. 562 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 2: Yeah. 563 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 4: But the more active people are for the things that 564 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 4: are good, the actual values that our country stood for, 565 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,479 Speaker 4: whatever form that takes, and the next iteration of what 566 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 4: our country is, that makes a huge difference. So what 567 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 4: each of us can do is peak out for our values, 568 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 4: but also for human rights, freedom, dignity, basic dignity. It 569 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 4: doesn't matter if you're Iranian or Palestinian, or Israeli or 570 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 4: American or Chinese or Taiwanese. 571 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 3: If you stand on the side of human dignity. 572 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,080 Speaker 4: In the end, you'll be pushing in the right direction 573 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,200 Speaker 4: no matter what happens in the politics above us, which 574 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 4: I think are just essentially corrupted beyond repair at this moment. 575 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 3: Josh Rogan, thanks so much. You can watch Josh. Are 576 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 3: you exclusive to see an En or you go everywhere 577 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 3: anytime anywhere? Call me? 578 00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, you can see him all over the cable nets 579 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 1: and you can read him in the Washington Post. Always 580 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 1: great to talk to you. Thanks so much for your 581 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: great reporting. I appreciate it. Right back at you, and 582 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 1: thanks to Josh. Thanks to you for tuning in, and 583 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: we'll see you next time. Off the Cup is a 584 00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 1: production of iHeart Podcast as part of the Reason Choice Network. 585 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 3: If you want more, check out the other. 586 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:06,200 Speaker 1: Reason Choice podcasts Spolitics with Jamel Hill and Native Land Pod. 587 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 1: For Off the Cup, I am your host, Si Cup. 588 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 1: Editing and sound design by Derek Clements. Our executive producers 589 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 1: are me, Si Cup, Lauren Hanson, and Lindsay Hoffman. Rate 590 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: and review wherever you get your podcasts, Follow or subscribe 591 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 1: for new episodes every Wednesday.