WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 1 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.680 Check it on Man No Down Man. September Night is 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:17.760 the Beating the Book Podcast megapod year number eleven. It's 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:21.119 Gill Alexander. We're doing this from Circa usually we do 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:24.239 it from the d Um, the well designed studio, The 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:26.279 well designed studio where I have to dodge you to 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:29.720 see Mikey on the other side. Mike Palm, Derek Stephen's 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:34.120 conciliary vice president of Operations at Circus Sports and co 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.600 hosts of The Nuts Soon to be another name, Soon 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.199 to be another name. Do we have a name that 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.320 you'd like to reveal? I can't reveal it because you 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:43.600 know they're so excited here on this new fall lineup, 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.440 but we can't announce anything till Monday. Okay, it's called 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:50.560 Bland Radio for an hour. Todd Wishnev's first shot across 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:56.880 the Battle and the season is underway. Nay Star Up, Showtimes, Docuseries, Action, 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:01.240 Mike Took, Hello, personally, I love the guy. We always 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:03.720 have a rotating guest on the megapod um. For those 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:06.600 who are unfamiliar with this format, it's always Mikey, Todd 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.360 and I and then a rotating guest. Brady Cannon has 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.960 been the leadoff guest on the Megapod for maybe all 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:15.600 of those years, maybe a couple of years shy, but 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:17.840 typically the leadoff man. And you're kind enough to do 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.360 it again. Brady Cannon, co host of the greatest golf 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:23.040 betting show there ever was long Shots, And of course, oh, 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:26.800 by the way, past Super Contest champion ring Oh look 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.440 at that, let me see that? Oh Wowiod, how often 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:33.440 do you wear that? Very rarely? What I figured today 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:37.520 was an appropriate time to do very nice. Uh eleven 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:41.040 is when you won the Supercontal and you're still playing 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:44.039 the Super Contest? Are you playing gold to know? I'm 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:50.000 playing the Super Contest and circumlion? Okay, no Survivor for you? Okay. 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:51.320 Oh by the way, I forgot to tell you I 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:52.960 have to do a Survivor pick two if you want to, 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:56.120 that's fine. Okay. So here's the format, Todd, you'll correct me. 0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:59.240 Todd Todd is also court stenographer here on the show. 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:01.800 So here's how this works. Mikey will give us a 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:05.200 Circa Millions and Circuits Survivor update. Uh, then we will 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.120 get into Thursday night thoughts. If there already doesn't have 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:09.959 to be, but if there is, how you're playing Thursday 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:12.840 Night Football. Then it's three best bets, then of course, 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:15.560 um your survivor, pick your favorite teaser of the week, 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.960 and the final two questions of every show, what's the 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:19.480 big favorite you think is the most likely to lose 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:20.799 out right? In? What game do you want no part 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:23.520 of against the side on the side. I guess that's 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:25.320 I think I got that right, right, Todd. That's the 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:27.480 whole thing. There'll probably be a song relating to a 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:30.799 southern football team as well. That's coming to alright, Mikey 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.640 update if you would, Yeah, I'm giving it up to 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:36.320 the second update. And we had a big day yesterday, 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:39.600 Gil we did a four hundred and twenty one Survivors. 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:41.840 I mean we're gonna be short. I mean we're not 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.000 getting to six thousand. What are you at now as 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:50.000 we speak this moment where thirty one six still eighteen short, 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:52.399 and remember Saturday, and we're not going to be able 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:54.839 to get a lot in. It cuts off at two 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:56.600 plus every ball. The proxies are going to be putting 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:58.960 their picks in for week one, right, So you're if 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:01.320 you're coming to wait until at today, you're you're in trouble. 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:03.600 So I think all the theory about the New England 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:06.560 Tampa Bay losing and all that stuff, I think it's valid. 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:08.680 I think it's valid that there will be people that 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.440 are here in town right now that will use Tampa 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:14.480 Bay tonight, and if they should happen to lose, we'll 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.680 get multiple more entries. But if they win, will you 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:20.520 get less entries? Yeah? I think we need we need 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:24.200 the Cowboys the upset to get a spike, so so 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.440 you don't regret that at all because of that having 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:29.960 the deadline for Survivor after Thursday Night is played. There's 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:31.880 been some people that said this game shouldn't be a 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:33.920 part of it. They've complained because now they're back in 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:36.320 southern California and they don't have the advantage of being 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:38.800 able to do that. But I think it works out. 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:41.000 And give us a little injection here if it should happen, 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.760 who could that be? Who could that be? And then millions, 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:46.400 you're closer to the number. Yeah, we'll get there with 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:49.120 the millions. We're thirty four and change with the millions, 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.320 so I think we'll go over the four thousand. I 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:56.600 think both contests end up around with the late bush 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:59.840 Um and again with Circus survivor the two quirks this 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.520 year more than the one cork last year. There is 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:04.920 not only Thanksgiving as its own week where there are 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:08.440 three games and you have to strategically keep those teams responsible. 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:10.800 Please sure, here are the three games on Thanksgiving. You 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.320 must have one of these six teams available or you're 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:16.920 already out. There's at the Lions, a snooze Fest, Raiders 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.600 at the Cowboys, and the Bills at the Saints. That's 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:23.560 the Thanksgiving lineup. Then you also have to have teams 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:25.679 available for the three games that are going to happen 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:29.600 on Christmas between Thursday and Saturday, which are the Niners 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:32.560 at the Titans, Browns at Packers, and Colden's Colts and 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:36.640 Cards good Luck, no one's gonna win survivor what happens 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:42.680 if nobody makes it well? Um, And then there's the 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.159 extra bonus which I think will distract people, which is 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:47.320 if you have the Chiefs of the Bucks save for 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:49.200 Week eighteen, not only would you win the six million, 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:52.040 you win an additional million. You get an additional million 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:53.960 on top for the people that use either of those 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.720 two teams. I was on with Mitch and Paul this 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:58.200 morning Mitch just trying to figure out a strategy to 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:01.520 use the Bucks at home win Week eighteen against the 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:03.400 Carolina You mean when he's out in the league four 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:08.240 just kidding, I'm gonna be out before anybody. Was a joke, 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.119 all right. Look, we were on a limited time today 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:11.840 because we we thought we're gonna be the d which 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:13.960 will be our home moving forward. But we're at the 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:16.279 lovely and I do mean lovely Circus studios. But the 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:18.640 nuts is gonna start, uh in just over an hour, 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.160 so we want to get right to it. Any Thursday night, 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:23.800 Brady will start with you here. Buccaneers are eight point 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:25.960 favorites something eight and a half, but it's typically eight 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:28.360 right now as we do this Thursday morning, eight point 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.440 favorites hosting the Cowboys. Did you play this in any way? 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:34.679 I did not play this game. Certainly it lends itself 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.320 to a teaser play. That's pretty obvious. She can tease 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:39.760 down the eight to you know, one and a half 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:43.760 or what have yet a half? Unfortunately it scanda nine. 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.480 Gil just said eight or eight and a half? Check it? Here? 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:51.480 He goes, is it nine? And I tell you what 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.080 was there? Protection? Now? Finally, and I tell you what 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.680 I mean. This starts to get into the territory where 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:59.200 it's a play on Dallas, because now this line is 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:01.800 approaching a of of three points, and that's just a 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:04.560 golden rule of NFL football. If one line moves three 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:07.520 points one way, you go the other side. And this 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:09.200 was six and a half when it opened up in 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:12.320 the summer. I immediately liked Dallas. I thought the line 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:14.640 should be three and a half or four and a half. Now, 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.839 you know, there's been speculation about Prescott's health, the offensive 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.480 line has some injuries. We're still not sure about the 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:23.960 Dallas defense. But if this gets to nine, nine and 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:27.280 a half, even double digits, I still may stay away 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:29.600 from the game, but absolutely Dallas would be the play. 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:32.400 I'm glad I teased it because I teased it with 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:36.920 the Rams. I tease the Bucks with the Niners. I 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:39.200 know that's not a Stanford long teaser leg, but I did. 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:41.120 And I teased it with the Bills, same story like, 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:43.080 and I had no compunction doing it for for any 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:46.440 of them, Mikey anything. I played this in real life, 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:52.880 and I parlayed the money line with Sabolenka in the semifinals. Nice. Yeah, 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:55.000 I think I think she's now the clear favorite to 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.480 win this. She got through what probably would be her 0:06:57.520 --> 0:07:01.200 toughest match, getting through your pick, you know Kratakova, who 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:03.800 I think still lingering. Health issues were a factor there, 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.840 but whatever happened there, yeah, um but yeah, So that's 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:08.600 what I used it in a money line parlay with 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:12.160 another another sporting event today. I think sabo Anka should 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:14.000 roll Layel Fernannis. It's great of a story. Is she 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:16.840 is the two teamer. It's four twenty and three twenty 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:22.080 I laid and so effectively it's minus one six. I 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.160 have no opinion. I certainly would not bet the Tampa 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:27.280 Bay Buccaneers. There's just way too much hype. I mean, 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.920 Tom Brady and the boys. They're all together, everyone's coming back. 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.840 They have fifteen returning starters on offense, even though there's 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:38.720 only eleven positions. They're so excited about everybody Tampa. Tom's 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:41.400 all ready to go. Too much hype, folks, do not 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:44.080 lay nine nine and a half. You will be crying. 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.440 Of course, they'll come out. Was gonna say, is it 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:48.680 a contest pick for you? Is it a survivor pick? Anything? No? 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:52.360 I don't, I don't. I may play Tampa and the survivor. 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.640 It's it's definitely a possibility. I haven't decided pent yet. 0:07:55.760 --> 0:07:59.360 All right, let's do best bets three per person, will 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:01.440 do it. We'll do it, Snake Todd. So you don't 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:04.280 get last last year and the year before, I got 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:06.200 screwed because I always have to talk last and I 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:08.160 pick last. But you're allowed to make the same picks 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:10.320 as other picks. I understand, But I think it should 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.040 be equitable. We should be an equitable show. You just 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:15.520 want the stage to talk about a game first. Look, 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.920 you don't always save the best for last. Go ahead, 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:21.200 all right, Brady, what's your first pick? Here? My first side. 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:24.600 My first pick is the New England Patriots, and you 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.680 will currently see them at minus three. I was actually 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:29.720 able to get them at minus two and a half. 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:32.880 And I really think this team is poised for a rebound. 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:36.400 The only possible regression points that I see are the 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.200 fact that they were plus three in turnover differential this 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:42.320 year or last year rather and this year in the schedule, 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:45.240 they have a very disadvantageous angle as far as a 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.440 rest perspective. There on a lot of short weeks they're 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.560 playing teams that are in good positions, so the schedule 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.640 doesn't set up great for them. Although it's relatively easy 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:57.640 as far as competition, the rest angle is not great 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.160 for New England. Otherwise, I think this team bounce is 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:02.480 back in a big way. Uh. You know, they only 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:06.600 through twelve touchdown passes last year and still won seven games. 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:11.120 They had the largest COVID injury opt out and players 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.160 departing over the course of the entire league, and just 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.760 about all those players return. A lot of those players 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:20.080 come back from Miami their part their opponent this week. 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:23.240 I think the offensive line is improved and will be excellent. 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.600 I think the defensive side of the ball will be 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:28.319 improved and very good. I think the running games showed 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:31.560 to be really powerful in the preseason. And and at 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:34.320 the bottom line, it's Bill Belichick coming off of a 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:37.920 seven win season. I I know he didn't come back 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:40.720 this season because he thinks they're going to be lousy again. 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.840 I think he has high hopes for this season and uh, 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.960 I think he really takes it out on this Miami team. Um. 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:49.200 I think there's a number of signs that point to 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:52.520 New England really having a positive return to the mean 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:54.520 this year off of what they did last year, So 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:56.720 I think they get it started with a big victory 0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.920 here over the division rival Dolphins. I'm I'm with you. 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.000 I'm gonna jump in here because I too am on 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:03.880 the New England Patriots have made a bet on him 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:05.480 at minus student app but even at minus three, I 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:08.280 like them. And on a week and a week one 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:11.000 where honestly, when we went through on a numbers game 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:13.120 the other day, game by game to figure out through 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.160 the prism of our contest. But are we're gonna come 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:18.000 up with five picks here? A C S that was 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:19.880 one of the few, and I do mean few, and 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:21.760 I'll have all three of them here on the megapod 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.640 where I was like, I feel really good about this. 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.160 And it is the Bill Belichick factor, and it is 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:28.960 the fact that Mac Jones and I, well, I don't know, 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:30.880 I know it's preseason. We don't want to read too 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:34.440 much into it. But he appears to be well beyond 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:37.600 his years right from the right from the start, and 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:40.920 he was Bill Belichick was hamstrung last year, remember all 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:43.640 those defensive opt outs. I also think it's a fade 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:48.240 of Miami here that team uh increased by wins of 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.800 five games from two thousand nineteen to two thousand twenty, 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:55.000 and that doesn't typically bode well for the follow up. Here, 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:58.320 this team overachieved quite a bit in two thousand twenty. 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.240 They were plus nine in turve and over differential and 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.800 still didn't make the playoffs. That's not a good combination. 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:07.760 So I think Miami probably regresses this year. And conversely, 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:11.880 I think the Patriots have progressive, you know, a move 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:14.520 towards the mean. So, I mean, it's kind of going 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.080 opposite directions in my opinion for both of these teams. 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.160 It's your number one of the three or no particularly 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:21.760 no particular order. I'm gonna call it my number one. 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:24.080 I'm gonna call my number one New England Patriots as well, 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.960 mikey Hard I have an inquiry as to the line 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:31.240 and total on the Cardinals and Titus. You know, this 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:34.280 is the official way to do it, instead of trying 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.040 to change the line, Mike, he's doing it the fair way. 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.440 Which game would you like? Colts and Titans? No, they 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:42.240 don't play I like the Cardinals Cardinals. I'm sorry. The 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:47.200 line I have is three minus oh five, pretty much 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:50.560 as standard for the Titans, and the over under is 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:55.360 pretty much fifty two two over, We're gonna go over here. 0:11:56.440 --> 0:12:01.920 It's really really for real. The don't remember, don't change yours, Todd. 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:06.000 I think it was a miracle. Tennessee won eleven games 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:07.840 with his defense last year, and I don't see it 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:10.920 being any better. I think that Tennessee gets better on 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:14.640 offense with the addition of Julio Jones. They become more dynamic. 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.600 They still have that eighteen wheeler in the backfield, and 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:19.320 I think the Cardinals are going to start to click. 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.880 I think there was something off last year between Kingsbury 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.080 and Kyler Murray. I think that there was no rhythm 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:26.920 that they ever got to their game, and they didn't 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:30.040 fully achieve what they could have on offense. I see 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.240 this game playing in the sixties. I really think the 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:34.160 numbers probably about right here. I don't know how the 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:37.319 humidity will factor in with the Cardinals players playing in 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.360 Tennessee outdoors for a dome team, so I'm gonna stay 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.240 away from the side, but over fifty two is my 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.360 top play. Titans, who got to the postseason last year, 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:49.320 lost to Baltimore UH in the divisional round or whatever 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:51.960 the first round is called these days. UH. They lost 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:55.280 twenty to thirteen, and the Titans this year beyond this game, 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:58.480 minus won fifteen over DraftKings to win the division season 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:02.320 win total of nine s minus one to make the playoffs, 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.480 and no plus one one for those who are interested 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.120 to win the a f C. So you're over here 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.720 over fifty two, Todd, what number is that for you? 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:13.640 Of your first three? I was gonna put it second. 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:16.760 Would you like to add anything to Mikey said, or well, 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:18.400 I thought I would talk about it when I get there, 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.679 but I talk about if we're doubling up, you talk 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.760 about it now. Um, I agree with Mikey. I think 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:25.720 this is going to be a shootout. The Titans games, 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:29.400 if you watched them last year, very very often degenerated 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:33.040 into ridiculously high scoring games because they couldn't stop anybody, 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:34.880 and they had, like you said, the eighteen wheeler in 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:37.840 the backfield. They could score the ball. Um. You know, 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.080 this is kind of similar to remember when we had 0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:42.680 that Tampa Bay run of overs two years ago that 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.240 I kept, you know, getting on Tennessee. We're winning like 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.480 crazy with the over on the end games last year. 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:48.760 As soon as you saw it was gonna be another 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.280 Tennessee game, just jump on the over and you went 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:55.040 like crazy. So while not knowing much about these teams yet, 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.880 because you know all the hype, folks, you better take 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:02.280 a chill pill with all the hype. Remember, you don't 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:04.600 want to get too polluted with all this preseason talk 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.520 about about teams, because how many years in a row 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:10.240 have we seen everybody get excited and then it's something 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:12.600 totally different plays out. But one thing I think is 0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:15.080 maybe count on a bowl if that's a word it 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:18.680 is not. The Titans are going to probably be playing 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:22.440 overs unless they completely overhauled their team. And the other 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:24.920 thing is Kyler Murray goes back to pass and he 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:27.440 starts running and you can't stop the guy. He's he's 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:31.640 a bared to hate. You cannot stop that against him. 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.080 It's it's, oh, it's terrifying spaying against him. So I'm 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.400 gonna go with Mikey over fifty two Titans versus Arizona. 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:39.080 We still have a chance to win because as long 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:41.680 as not more than three people have picked it, we 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:43.440 could win. If three of us pick it, we know 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:45.760 it's a lot, it's a loss, it's guaranteed. Science. Well, 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:47.720 I just want to repeat what you just said, Todd, 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:49.600 because I think that's the single biggest thing. And we 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:51.640 saw this in college football. All it took was one 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.280 week of college football. We know nothing. We think we 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.480 know stuff heading into a season, we absolutely know nothing. 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:00.440 We might get some stuff right, but there's gonna be 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:03.160 some things that inevitably, inevitably surprises, which, by the way, 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:05.720 is why you're doing the Amal Shaw before the season 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.240 grid for your survivor is also a fool's aeron to 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.200 go three or four weeks then do that. No, I 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.200 agree it is a fool's errand, but I still wanted 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.400 to do it just to kind of see what I 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:17.480 would have done. I agree. I don't think it's a 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.920 bad practice to just set a map out from the 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.600 get go and you don't necessarily have to adhere to it, 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:24.680 but you don't play survivor, I know, but I think 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:26.280 I don't think that's a bad way to go. I'm 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:31.040 calling mine the Dan Campbell Memorial a mall Shaw Napkin Gate, 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.240 and the reason is I'm gonna try to jam Dan 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.800 Campbell in as many times again as I possibly can, 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.600 because I don't think that man should be a headquarll 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:43.280 that listen, that there's there's nothing wrong with fade in 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.480 the Jets. Last year, I did it eight times a 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:47.920 Mall's theory here, and he didn't know about the Christmas 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:49.720 rule when he did it on during the breaks of 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.000 one show, so you have to let him, you know, 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:56.240 go back. But he faded the Texans eleven times wow, 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.600 during the course of the season, and I think through 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:00.480 the first nine weeks, eight time games. I mean, it 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:02.680 was just fate Texas, Faye Texas. Fay texts, well, that 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:04.640 gets to my pick. He didn't eatn't do it week 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.720 one though I would assume no, he did not. That 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.400 that's a perfect elite into Since we're gonna do things 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.200 equitably for a change around here, I will pick first 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:19.680 in the second round and I will take the Houston Texans. 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:23.720 That's right, Mikey plus the three points, I am gonna 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:28.000 go with the Houston Texans. And here's why Houston's gonna 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:31.760 play Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Now, Tyrod Taylor is no superstar, 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.800 but he is a game manager who cannot turn the 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:37.560 ball over and hopefully get you a w A lot 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:39.480 of times in the NFL. It's not winning the game. 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.560 It's not not losing the game, and very often it's 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.480 a turnover situation that loses you the game. And now 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:49.320 I get to go at home against a Trevor Lawrence. 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:51.120 Give me a break. Who knows what the heck that 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:53.760 guy is with the Jacksonville Jaguars. You know it's not 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:55.880 a good football team. You're asking them to go on 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:57.640 the road and give a team three points. I don't 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.080 I know NFL. Houston still has NFL players. Okay, I 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:05.560 know they lost the guy. There was a little massage issue. Okay, 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:10.000 I understand all that they still have. Look when you're 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:13.200 doing your massage situations, you gotta be careful. The point 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:16.159 is it still has a National Football League team, and 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.480 it's not like they're playing against a great team at 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:20.880 jackson Ville go on the road. Well, and it's also 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:22.320 that Urban Meyer thing, and I said this to you 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.760 on a Numbers game this morning, Like this just reminds 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:26.320 me some of the stuff that urban Meyer did in 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.119 the offseason. The arrogance has a chief of staff. For 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.520 god's sakes, there's somebody who is called a chief of 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.560 staff that you have to go through to get to 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:35.960 Urban Meyer. This is very spur Or esque to me. 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:39.160 That's what the old Malcolm Gladwell blink thing. I just 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.560 think they could be bad in a way that we 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:44.879 think of the Texas right now. Yeah, you're asking them 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:47.480 to go on the road and the National Football League 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:49.600 going on the road is hard for an Actually their 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:52.560 third straight road game, their last two preseason games around 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:54.760 the road as well. There you go. You know, do 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.439 you think there's a chance that Urban Meyer doesn't finish 0:17:57.480 --> 0:18:01.200 the year? Yes? I do you do well? Which would 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.040 be had more heart problems he was. Look if the 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:06.760 stress was too much in college where you're god right 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:08.520 now now you have to answer to people. But the 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.880 other thing is his worst season was eight and three 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:14.400 his first year at Bowling Green. He went of his games. 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:16.800 I mean, he never lost it all. He's not what 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.480 happens when he's two and nine? Well, like he's never 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.199 had to worry about an offensive line being bad? Like, 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:24.840 what's that he doesn't he can't even compete with him. Yeah, 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:28.000 I saw the prop at Westgate who quits first Urban 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:33.840 Meyer Mike Palm from the Nuts, but ump number two 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:37.520 fire Urbans plus money there plus money, all right, Brady 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:39.840 number two number two for you. I am going with 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:43.040 the Atlanta Falcons. Oh, Mike Brady and I are sharing 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:47.119 a brain, and the Atlanta Falcons lost a number of 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.320 close games last season. That should adjust to the positive. 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:52.720 And of course Arthur Smith comes in as the new 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:55.400 head coach, and I think he's really going to give 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:57.960 a boost to that offense that struggled in the red zone. 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:00.280 And I think Kyle Pitts gives a big bost to 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:02.720 that offense as well. And we saw how Arthur Smith 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:05.760 did with tight ends with Tennessee, so I think that's 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:08.480 all a positive. But maybe the biggest coaching higher they 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:11.440 made his Dean ps as the defensive coordinator. This guy, 0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:14.320 all he's done is coach for New England and Baltimore 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:17.080 and he's been fantastic on the defensive side of the ball. 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:20.400