1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:08,160
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. But this one is good.

2
00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:08,520
Speaker 1: All right.

3
00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:14,080
Speaker 2: Here we go there throwing in song expect I'm saying

4
00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:18,000
Speaker 2: it's a cash to star. We see most gamble is

5
00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:20,759
Speaker 2: when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

6
00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:25,280
Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

7
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:34,520
Speaker 1: All right, This is the ultimate Kabani and we are underway. Hello,

8
00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,680
Speaker 1: and welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host,

9
00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,440
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. Here as all is with Raheem Palmer to

10
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,800
Speaker 1: catch you up on a weird, weird week nine day

11
00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:52,120
Speaker 1: of football results upset palooza today in the early Sunday window,

12
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,120
Speaker 1: seven teams that enter the day in the playoff picture played,

13
00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,040
Speaker 1: Six of them lost, and the seventh one almost did

14
00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:03,080
Speaker 1: two in overtime. More upsets later in the day. Up

15
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,319
Speaker 1: and down, left is right, Rahiem, What in the wider

16
00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,720
Speaker 1: world of football happened today? To me, the NFL happened.

17
00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,639
Speaker 2: This is the NFL I've been waiting for all season long.

18
00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,240
Speaker 2: We've had all these big favorites covering every single week,

19
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,240
Speaker 2: and finally the last two weeks we've had things come

20
00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,800
Speaker 2: back to normal. This is the NFL. Any given Sunday,

21
00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,440
Speaker 2: any one of these teams can lose. And you know,

22
00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,800
Speaker 2: through the first seven seven eight weeks of the season,

23
00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:32,000
Speaker 2: we didn't have a favorite over like seven points of

24
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,920
Speaker 2: more lose outright, And I think the first one was

25
00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 2: last week against the Cincinnati Bank Cincinnati Bangals in the

26
00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:39,800
Speaker 2: New York Jets to finally starting to see some of

27
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:42,759
Speaker 2: these teams come come down to earth. So I like it,

28
00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,279
Speaker 2: like this is what makes the NFL exciting, that anything

29
00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:45,760
Speaker 2: could happen.

30
00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:48,040
Speaker 1: Do you like it as a fan or do you

31
00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:49,240
Speaker 1: like it as a better or both?

32
00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,120
Speaker 2: I think both as a better because I think one

33
00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:55,240
Speaker 2: of the things that you learned, like when I first

34
00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 2: when you first start betting when the NFL is you

35
00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,800
Speaker 2: learned that these teams just because they're good, they're not

36
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:02,840
Speaker 2: going to go sixteen and oh seventeen and know they're

37
00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,440
Speaker 2: going to have their down spots and you start to

38
00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:07,960
Speaker 2: learn that you know this is a bad spot for

39
00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,760
Speaker 2: this team or you got to fade them because it's

40
00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,000
Speaker 2: just too many points. And I think through the first

41
00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 2: seven seven weeks and season, it was just like these

42
00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:16,399
Speaker 2: teams weren't lose.

43
00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,440
Speaker 1: It. Like if you look at some of the survival.

44
00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:22,800
Speaker 2: Pools, like half the survivor pools got knocked out last week,

45
00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,000
Speaker 2: because every single week's been favorites recovering, So I like,

46
00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:26,960
Speaker 2: I like weeks like this.

47
00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to go on a limb and suggest

48
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,760
Speaker 1: this probably was not the best week for your survivor pool.

49
00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,280
Speaker 1: Survivor pools took massive hits all over the board today,

50
00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,200
Speaker 1: so if you survived this one, you are in a

51
00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 1: pretty good shape in your survivor pool. We're going to

52
00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 1: talk about all the upsets, we'll talk about Monday Night

53
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,560
Speaker 1: Football later on and get our week ten hot Reed

54
00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:50,519
Speaker 1: picks in there as always odds there from BETMGM, the

55
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:54,440
Speaker 1: official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. So we're

56
00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:56,720
Speaker 1: going to start with what we thought was the one

57
00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:01,080
Speaker 1: really great game today, my Minnesota Viking on the road

58
00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,560
Speaker 1: in Baltimore. That one ended up closing as Baltimore a

59
00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:08,919
Speaker 1: seven point favorite. The Vikings were up big two touchdowns

60
00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,240
Speaker 1: multiple different times. Ravens came all the way back. This

61
00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,239
Speaker 1: one went to overtime, and of course my Vikings losing

62
00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,920
Speaker 1: an overtime byfield goal as we do. Thirty four thirty one,

63
00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,880
Speaker 1: so way over on this one. The Vikings did cover,

64
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,359
Speaker 1: but that doesn't help us very much in the playoff standings.

65
00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:28,720
Speaker 1: So you and I one had to head on this

66
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,160
Speaker 1: one and we previewed a little bit. I was in

67
00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,560
Speaker 1: on the Ravens, you run the Vikings. How what did

68
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,480
Speaker 1: you make of your read? Is this what you expected

69
00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 1: from this game?

70
00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:37,520
Speaker 3: Oh?

71
00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:39,960
Speaker 2: Is exactly what I expected to be honest, I actually

72
00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,840
Speaker 2: thought that the Vikings would win this game outright until

73
00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,240
Speaker 2: I was watching the game and actually took some Baltimore

74
00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 2: Ravens live. But this was the classic spot where you

75
00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 2: see a team let down on Sunday Night football and

76
00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,840
Speaker 2: the public pushes this line up from five and a

77
00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,480
Speaker 2: half to seven and my mom actually made this around

78
00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,880
Speaker 2: four and a half. So when you look at this

79
00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:04,920
Speaker 2: Ravens team, they actually they're the worst in the league

80
00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,320
Speaker 2: in terms of giving a passing yard. And you knew

81
00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,800
Speaker 2: that with the playmakers that they had and Justin Jefferson

82
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,680
Speaker 2: and Adam Delan, they were going to be able to

83
00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,080
Speaker 2: create some plates. And Kirk Cousins has had a solid season,

84
00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:21,280
Speaker 2: and obviously Justin Jefferson he only had three receptions in

85
00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:25,120
Speaker 2: sixty nine yards, but he had the long touchdown catch.

86
00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,240
Speaker 1: Adam Field didn't do much, but you.

87
00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,760
Speaker 2: Just figured that he could make some plays, so I

88
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,360
Speaker 2: kind of got what I expected. And then obviously Mike

89
00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,520
Speaker 2: Zimmer is still a solid defensive coach. I think one

90
00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,480
Speaker 2: of the things that the biggest thing is to surprised

91
00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,880
Speaker 2: me is that the Baltimore Ravens is that they continue

92
00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:42,839
Speaker 2: to come back from these deficits.

93
00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:43,760
Speaker 1: Like, what do you think about that?

94
00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,520
Speaker 2: Because it's like our whole thought process on the Ravens

95
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,360
Speaker 2: is that they can't fight their way back, and now

96
00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:48,839
Speaker 2: they're doing it.

97
00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is their third double digit comeback this season.

98
00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,760
Speaker 1: They were down fourteen multiple times in this game, and yeah,

99
00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:59,440
Speaker 1: it went from early in this season both of us

100
00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,800
Speaker 1: feeling likened like I, you know, the Ravens aren't built

101
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,400
Speaker 1: to play from behind too. I didn't even flinch in

102
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,880
Speaker 1: this game. I was like, yeah, okay, I like the

103
00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,640
Speaker 1: Ravens anyways, and I don't mind that they're behind. Minnesota

104
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,720
Speaker 1: scored early, the Owls squirrely. The Vikings said, fourteen the

105
00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,359
Speaker 1: first two drives and then three points of offense the

106
00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:17,760
Speaker 1: whole rest of the game until the final drive. This

107
00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,839
Speaker 1: is what Minnesota does. And the Ravens have shown that

108
00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,280
Speaker 1: they're they're not really going to back away from that.

109
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,440
Speaker 1: I think that narrative about Lamar Jackson and the Ravens

110
00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,720
Speaker 1: not playing from behind, I think it's dead, like it's

111
00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,039
Speaker 1: dead dead at this point. And you know, you and

112
00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,560
Speaker 1: I are right, we're on it, so we're guilty of it.

113
00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:38,880
Speaker 1: But it's time to put that to bed. Honestly, as

114
00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,520
Speaker 1: a Vikings fan and as a better it is hard

115
00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,120
Speaker 1: for me to get anything more wrong than this game.

116
00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,400
Speaker 1: So I said one of the things I thought was

117
00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,080
Speaker 1: a big hidden advantage here with special teams. The Vikings

118
00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:52,960
Speaker 1: are near the bottom of the league, and special teams have

119
00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,440
Speaker 1: been for a few years. John Harbaugh and the Ravens

120
00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,680
Speaker 1: always near the top. They're number one DVOA. So what happens.

121
00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,640
Speaker 1: The Vikings returned the opening second half of the kickoff

122
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,160
Speaker 1: touchdown all the way and they can rid a fake punt,

123
00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:09,159
Speaker 1: So big special team's advantage to Minnesota, not Baltimore. I

124
00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 1: thought the Ravens run defense run game was gonna gash

125
00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,480
Speaker 1: the Vikings instead, Dalvin Cook seventeen carries one hundred and

126
00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,840
Speaker 1: ten yards. I think that was the biggest run game

127
00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:23,040
Speaker 1: Baltimore allowed all season. Even it got to overtime, and

128
00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,320
Speaker 1: at this point the Ravens had just been like just

129
00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:29,600
Speaker 1: controlling the game against Minnesota, Like I know, so went

130
00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,120
Speaker 1: to overtime, but you know, look at the stats. Minnesota

131
00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:37,919
Speaker 1: had thirteen first downs, Baltimore thirty six. Minnesota ran fifty

132
00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:41,120
Speaker 1: two plays to eighty nine for Baltimore, and mostly that

133
00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,760
Speaker 1: was the second half. I even tweeted in overtime, So

134
00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,000
Speaker 1: the Ravens get the ball, they win the toss, and

135
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,200
Speaker 1: I just think it's over. The Ravens have just been

136
00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,360
Speaker 1: controlling it. The Vikings defense is gassed, So I even

137
00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,240
Speaker 1: tweet out Minnesota's not getting the ball back. What happens

138
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,200
Speaker 1: the very next play, Lamar Jackson gets picked off and

139
00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,680
Speaker 1: Minnesota gets the ball back and have a chance to

140
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,480
Speaker 1: win three and out one yard back to Baltimore, a

141
00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:08,400
Speaker 1: game over. I mean, do you think so the stats

142
00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,360
Speaker 1: the stouts makes us not even close, not even a

143
00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,800
Speaker 1: little close. The stouts make it look like Baltimore should

144
00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,320
Speaker 1: have won by multiple touchdowns. Do you think that this

145
00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:19,600
Speaker 1: was close or do you think that this is more

146
00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,720
Speaker 1: what the stouts are showing. I think it was a

147
00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:22,800
Speaker 1: tail of two halts.

148
00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:27,880
Speaker 2: Like you saw the Vikings defense wear down as the

149
00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,000
Speaker 2: game went on, and in the end of the third

150
00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:31,920
Speaker 2: quarter or fourth quarter, it was just like the Vikings

151
00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,320
Speaker 2: just had nothing left. And I still think Mike Zimmer

152
00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,240
Speaker 2: is still to conservative. When you look at their early rush,

153
00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,360
Speaker 2: they had a twenty nine percent success rate, but they

154
00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:45,120
Speaker 2: ran on early downs twenty one times compared to early

155
00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,360
Speaker 2: past early pass they passed seventeen times, had an early

156
00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,040
Speaker 2: down success rate of forty one percent. So this is

157
00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,840
Speaker 2: a team that's just far too conservative. And when you

158
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,440
Speaker 2: look at this Ravens defense, the struggle they struggled to

159
00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,440
Speaker 2: stop the pass. So I just don't understand Mike Zimmer,

160
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,440
Speaker 2: and I think at some point he's kind of worn

161
00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:05,160
Speaker 2: out his welcome.

162
00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,160
Speaker 1: He's really got to go. Yeah. I mean I said

163
00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,480
Speaker 1: coming into this game, I thought the Ravens might win big. Really,

164
00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,840
Speaker 1: I thought they would do what the stats show they did.

165
00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,680
Speaker 1: I just thought the winning margin would reflect that, and

166
00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,960
Speaker 1: that this might be the game finally that pushed over

167
00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,840
Speaker 1: the edge. Instead, the Vikings keep hanging around like they

168
00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:24,760
Speaker 1: here's the season now. The Vikings lost by three in

169
00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,360
Speaker 1: the opener, they lost by one. They beat Seattle by thirteen,

170
00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,920
Speaker 1: which was weird. Whatever. They lost to Cleveland fourteen to seven.

171
00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,960
Speaker 1: They beat the Lions by two, only because they barely

172
00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,600
Speaker 1: survived at the last second. They beat Carolina in overtime,

173
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,360
Speaker 1: and then they lost by four to a backup quarterback,

174
00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:45,560
Speaker 1: and now they lost by three. That's losses by three, one, seven, four,

175
00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,200
Speaker 1: and three plus two other games that came down to

176
00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:52,240
Speaker 1: literally the last play. It's just every Somebody tweeted the

177
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,200
Speaker 1: Vikings could play the two thousand and seven Patriots one

178
00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,320
Speaker 1: week and the two thousand and eight Lions the next week,

179
00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,839
Speaker 1: and somehow both games would come down to the last play,

180
00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,880
Speaker 1: and like, honestly, that feels right. I don't know how

181
00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,760
Speaker 1: this team plays so up and so down based on

182
00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,360
Speaker 1: whoever they're facing, you tweak.

183
00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:09,959
Speaker 2: I think, honestly, this is probably one of the best

184
00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:13,880
Speaker 2: three to five teams I've ever seen, because they should

185
00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:18,719
Speaker 2: have be Arizona, Like Arizona is dominant, and they dominated

186
00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,439
Speaker 2: that game and they still lost. When you I mean,

187
00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,200
Speaker 2: obviously they had to let down spot against the Cowboys,

188
00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,240
Speaker 2: but for the most part, they've played solid games every

189
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,440
Speaker 2: single week and just can't close. So, I mean, you

190
00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,600
Speaker 2: are what your record is, and I think it's it's

191
00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,200
Speaker 2: pretty clear that they're a team that just can't close games.

192
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, this was a really big opportunity to Aaron Rodgers

193
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,000
Speaker 1: is out maybe multiple games. The Saints loss, the Panthers lost.

194
00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:47,920
Speaker 1: Those are the teams the Vikings are competing for in

195
00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,079
Speaker 1: the division and in the wild card race. This should

196
00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,080
Speaker 1: have been you know, the Vikings are up multiple scores

197
00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,360
Speaker 1: in the second half here, like this should have been

198
00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,319
Speaker 1: a huge opportunity for Minnesota to get a big when

199
00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,199
Speaker 1: you know, really get that, like the one big win

200
00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,880
Speaker 1: of the season and kind of put a statement on things.

201
00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,480
Speaker 1: And instead, you know, we mentioned that opening window. All

202
00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 1: the playoff teams, but one lost. This was the one.

203
00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,680
Speaker 1: This was the one that Minnesota let get away. Here.

204
00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,280
Speaker 1: I will say this coolest thing that happened all day

205
00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,920
Speaker 1: for me. This has nothing to do with betting. But

206
00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,840
Speaker 1: I'm watching the Vikings game. I'm just sitting here in

207
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,480
Speaker 1: Chicago watching the Vikings game. You know, it's it's Veterans

208
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,400
Speaker 1: Day coming up. So we saw on a lot of

209
00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:32,480
Speaker 1: the games camouflage hoodies, and we saw different like military

210
00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,440
Speaker 1: people in the games. So coming in out of commercial

211
00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:38,000
Speaker 1: break middle of the second quarter, they show you know,

212
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,680
Speaker 1: sometimes they show like people serving the military overseas and

213
00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,520
Speaker 1: they're like watching the game or that sort of thing.

214
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,080
Speaker 1: So they cut to overseas and here's a man and

215
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,200
Speaker 1: a woman serving overseas. They don't tell us where. This

216
00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,480
Speaker 1: is my best friend from childhood, like the guy that

217
00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,160
Speaker 1: I've spent all, like all my life playing Vikings games

218
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,679
Speaker 1: in the front yard, Like I'm throwing him out to

219
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:04,200
Speaker 1: the to the sidewalk, Chris Carter, Randy Moss catching and

220
00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,880
Speaker 1: suddenly here's my best friend on TV, you know, like

221
00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,760
Speaker 1: doing I like that. You like that from Kirk Cousins.

222
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,600
Speaker 1: So that was very cool. Thank you military for serving,

223
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,559
Speaker 1: Thank you Adam for serving. I know he listens to

224
00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,760
Speaker 1: us sometimes. So as a Vikings fan, as a better

225
00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,280
Speaker 1: this was all wrong for me, but I at least

226
00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,760
Speaker 1: got that moment out of this game. I mean it was.

227
00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:27,760
Speaker 2: It was a great game, probably probably the best game

228
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,800
Speaker 2: of today. I've really enjoyed the game, and not just

229
00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,240
Speaker 2: from a betting perspective, but it was very entertainment.

230
00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, big win for the Ravens. They have

231
00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:37,679
Speaker 1: to be a serious one seed threat now, I think,

232
00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,360
Speaker 1: and I'm curious what you think too about let's do

233
00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,160
Speaker 1: what the MVP race just for a minute or two.

234
00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:44,559
Speaker 1: So I know you've been in on Lamar Jackson a

235
00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,920
Speaker 1: little bit. He somehow is still only the seventh favorite

236
00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:49,840
Speaker 1: for MVP is twelfth to one right now at bet

237
00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,199
Speaker 1: MGM rough day for MVP candidates, Kyler is out, Rogers

238
00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,360
Speaker 1: is out, Josh Allen sucked and took the loss, Dak

239
00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:01,120
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott sucked and took the loss, Matt Stafford Soften

240
00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:04,720
Speaker 1: took the loss. So Brady and Allen are pretty close

241
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:08,840
Speaker 1: to co favorites now, Tyler not too far behind Stafford, Rogers,

242
00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,200
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, and then Lamar is called the one. I

243
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,200
Speaker 1: feel like there's some value on Lamar, don't you think so?

244
00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,199
Speaker 1: I definitely think there's some value of Lamar.

245
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:16,840
Speaker 2: I mean, and then when you look at the fact

246
00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:19,680
Speaker 2: that he's leading all these combat victories, and you said

247
00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,360
Speaker 2: it a couple of weeks ago, you felt like thet

248
00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,600
Speaker 2: you were kind of out on the Ravens because they had.

249
00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,680
Speaker 1: To rely on Lamar so much.

250
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,280
Speaker 2: But it's just under pressure, he's pulling out these wins.

251
00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,600
Speaker 2: And like I said before, this Ravens defense isn't what

252
00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,400
Speaker 2: they were. They're giving up the most pass yards in

253
00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,959
Speaker 2: the NFL, and Lamar is just bailing them out. So

254
00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:41,960
Speaker 2: he has to be in an MVP race, and I

255
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 2: think it's worth a flyer to to bet him.

256
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean that's the thing that that's the flip

257
00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,839
Speaker 1: side to my same argument. If it's all on you,

258
00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,000
Speaker 1: you have a great chance to get the MVP if

259
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:53,880
Speaker 1: you come through. Like he's going to keep getting these

260
00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,079
Speaker 1: opportunities because you know, especially like in this game, when

261
00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,640
Speaker 1: the game script turned negative and it was like, okay, Lamar,

262
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:01,680
Speaker 1: just do you some stuff we need to you save

263
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,240
Speaker 1: us now, and I was like, oh, okay, I'll do that.

264
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,600
Speaker 1: I'll just run over here and pass over here and

265
00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,520
Speaker 1: run for the first down, catch us up a like

266
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:13,520
Speaker 1: Monster Fantasy game, one hundred yards rushing, three touchdowns, just

267
00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:15,920
Speaker 1: doing what he does. This's is another game for Lamar Jackson.

268
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,440
Speaker 1: So I do think that he's an interesting name there.

269
00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:24,040
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the stink of the week. Smelly, smelly, smelly.

270
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,000
Speaker 1: It's the smell. It's quite pungent. Dude, plug your nose.

271
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,160
Speaker 1: It's stinks.

272
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 3: This is your stink of the.

273
00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:37,600
Speaker 1: Week, because pretty much this week's stink of the week

274
00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,880
Speaker 1: is every NFL team that we thought was supposed to

275
00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,840
Speaker 1: be good. Today was upset Palooza. If you were a

276
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,440
Speaker 1: favorite in the NFL, you are the stink of the week.

277
00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,560
Speaker 1: We had favorites lose today. Like you said, favorites have

278
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,280
Speaker 1: barely been losing. We had favorites of five and a half,

279
00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:56,480
Speaker 1: six and a half, seven, ten and sixteen points lost today.

280
00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:00,960
Speaker 1: Five money line underdogs of two hundred plus two hundred

281
00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:05,120
Speaker 1: or longer one. So that's Falcons at plus two forty,

282
00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 1: Jaguars plus seven to fifty, Broncos plus three seventy five

283
00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:13,720
Speaker 1: Cardinals plus two ten Titans plus two seventy five. If

284
00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:18,120
Speaker 1: you are a crazy person and parlayed those five teams

285
00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 1: on the money line, you got a sixteen hundred to

286
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:26,320
Speaker 1: one parlay one hundred dollars better. If you've bet Falcons, Jaguars, Broncos, Cards,

287
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,680
Speaker 1: Titans on the money line, one hundred dollars better, is

288
00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,760
Speaker 1: up one hundred fifty nine thousand, five hundred eighty two

289
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:36,480
Speaker 1: dollars today. It's ridiculous. So we want to just talk

290
00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:38,920
Speaker 1: through We normally don't do so many games orhemon and

291
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,760
Speaker 1: I want to talk through just each of these games

292
00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 1: a little quicker. Why did the upset happened? And is

293
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:46,640
Speaker 1: there anything to make of it? Or is this just

294
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,840
Speaker 1: the NFL? And things went crazy. So Rahim and I

295
00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:53,400
Speaker 1: talked about Brown's Bangles on Friday. That was one of

296
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:56,480
Speaker 1: our big previews. Not close. A lot of these games,

297
00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:59,880
Speaker 1: not actually that close or exciting. Brown's forty one sixteen.

298
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 1: Browns are two point underdogs and obviously got the when fream.

299
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:05,960
Speaker 1: We both liked the Browns a lot in this one.

300
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,080
Speaker 1: Is this about what you expected coming in?

301
00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,880
Speaker 2: I mean, I didn't expect a dominant blowout performance, but

302
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 2: I did expect the defense to show up. Obviously, the

303
00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals, they have problems protecting the quarterback. This the

304
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,080
Speaker 2: Bengals offensive line, which is just twenty ninth and past

305
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,200
Speaker 2: block win rate and twenty fourth and of Justice Sachary

306
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,560
Speaker 2: and I knew that Miles Garrett in this Cleveland's offensive line,

307
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 2: I mean defensive line would cause some issues. They had

308
00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:35,800
Speaker 2: five sacks, so it's like that was big. They forced

309
00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,440
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow into two interceptions. And I think one of

310
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 2: the things that we forget is the NFL is a

311
00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 2: week by week league. So this Cincinnati Bengals team, they

312
00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,600
Speaker 2: weren't projected to be one of the best teams in

313
00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,880
Speaker 2: the AFC North, but the Browns weren't. If you looked

314
00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 2: at the preseason look ahead line. This line was minus

315
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,080
Speaker 2: four and a half for the Browns. Well, and at

316
00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,280
Speaker 2: some point we're looking at plus two and an half

317
00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,640
Speaker 2: of the Browns, and it just felt like the perfect

318
00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:06,640
Speaker 2: spot to buy low in his team. Obviously, Baker Mayfield

319
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,280
Speaker 2: and Odell Beckhams have had their issues as far as chemistry,

320
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,360
Speaker 2: and Baker went out there and he played one of

321
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,560
Speaker 2: his best games of the season fourteen to twenty one,

322
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,720
Speaker 2: eighteen yards, two touchdowns, He became he had a perfect

323
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,000
Speaker 2: quarterback rating in the third quarter. So it's just he

324
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,480
Speaker 2: played a great game. And sometimes the NFL games take

325
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,240
Speaker 2: a life of their own. I don't think you're gonna

326
00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 2: see a forty one to sixteen game between these two

327
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 2: teams again, but that's.

328
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 1: What happens in the NFL. Yeah, I think my takeaway

329
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 1: from this game is kind of what you're saying. I

330
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 1: want to not overreact to the Bengals here, and now

331
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 1: you're gonna laugh at me because I said some crazy

332
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 1: things about them last week when they lost to the Jets.

333
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,480
Speaker 1: But it's like, Okay, two weeks ago, the Bengals had

334
00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 1: their huge win over the Ravens and they're at the

335
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,120
Speaker 1: highest high. Then they lost to the Jets, and it's

336
00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,200
Speaker 1: the lowest low. I don't I'm not so worried about

337
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,320
Speaker 1: this game for that. So forty one to sixteen looks

338
00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,520
Speaker 1: like an absolute beat down. But so first drive the game,

339
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,600
Speaker 1: Bengals get the ball, they drive right down the field,

340
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,119
Speaker 1: they're about to score, and then Denzel Award picks it

341
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 1: off at the goal line returns it ninety nine for

342
00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,720
Speaker 1: a touchdown. That's a fourteen point swing right there. Like,

343
00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,399
Speaker 1: you can't get any better, bigger swing than that play.

344
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,840
Speaker 1: We know that that happens. It's almost impossible to win

345
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,040
Speaker 1: a game when you get a pick six, like a

346
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,119
Speaker 1: fourteen point swing like that, Like that's just what history

347
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 1: tells us. So that's huge. Besides that, though this game

348
00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,399
Speaker 1: was the stats are pretty equal. The Bengals actually had

349
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,400
Speaker 1: twenty five first downs only fourteen for Cleveland. They had

350
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 1: ten more minutes of the ball. Burrow had two interceptions,

351
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 1: that was the problem. Bengals had three turnovers and turnovers

352
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 1: on down. So you know, the Browns just made the

353
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,960
Speaker 1: big plays here and that matters. You know, big plays

354
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,679
Speaker 1: win In the NFL. Nick Chobb had a seventy year

355
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 1: touchdown Donald, People's Jones had a six year touchdown, they

356
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 1: had that pick six, but really the turnovers just set

357
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,520
Speaker 1: Cleveland up to really run up the score here. I

358
00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:02,200
Speaker 1: think this to me put Cincinnati in a great bilo

359
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 1: spot going forward, because you know, again, they were probably

360
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,680
Speaker 1: never as good, like what wasn't it like forty forty

361
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 1: one to seventeen that win over the Ravens, And now

362
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,040
Speaker 1: they hit the flip side forty one sixteen on the

363
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,400
Speaker 1: other side, and it's the same sort of game where

364
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 1: it was never really quite that dominant. And so I

365
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 1: think that there's gonna be a chance to kind of like,

366
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 1: all right, buy back in now in the Bengals. Two

367
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 1: weeks ago they were the AFC one seed. Now they're

368
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 1: the longest odds in the division. So life comes fast.

369
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,360
Speaker 1: But I don't I think I'm alright on Cincinnati here.

370
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 1: Do you think? Am I right about that? Yeah?

371
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 2: I think they're a playoff team. I mean, it's pretty

372
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 2: clear that they're not the best team.

373
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 1: In the division good, but.

374
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 2: They're a playoff team, and I think that's that's kind

375
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,439
Speaker 2: of you. I have to look this team going forward.

376
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,640
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk you about the Falcons Saints So

377
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 1: this one ended twenty seven to twenty five, and the

378
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 1: Saints took the lead, got the lead with a touchdown

379
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 1: with just a little bit of left, but then Landi

380
00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,159
Speaker 1: at the ball back, Matt Ryan hits Cordero Patterson on

381
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: the sideline and the Falcons walk off with the field

382
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 1: goal for the win. Does another one of our big upsets?

383
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 1: Six and a half point underdogs for Atlanta plus two

384
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 1: forty and Atlanta actually moves into the seven seed. Now

385
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons are a playoff team at the mid

386
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: season point? Did you get more out of this game

387
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 1: for the Saints or for the Falcons?

388
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,359
Speaker 2: For me, look, the Saints, I had no idea how

389
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 2: your laying six and a half points with Trevor Sindy,

390
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 2: and I think that was one of the more confusing things.

391
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 2: This safety team has just been up and down all year.

392
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 2: You kind of don't know what you're gonna give from them.

393
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 2: They've been a solid defense. I think that was the

394
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 2: more disappointing thing is that I didn't expect this defense

395
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 2: to roll over the way they did today. Matt Ryan

396
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 2: went out there three hundred and forty three yards, two touchdowns,

397
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 2: twenty to thirty thirty passing completions. So it's just that

398
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 2: was the thing that it was just like, all right,

399
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 2: this is kind of shocking for me. But besides that,

400
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 2: I'm not surprised. But anytime the Falcons go out there,

401
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,880
Speaker 2: they were seventy one percent success rate on early downs

402
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:02,159
Speaker 2: as far as pass. If the Saints can't win with defense,

403
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:03,159
Speaker 2: I don't know what they're gonna do.

404
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have no idea what to make of the Falcons.

405
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 1: I was finally in on them again last week against Carolina, like, Okay,

406
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,920
Speaker 1: the offense is figuring things out, Arthur Smith, here we go.

407
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,399
Speaker 1: And then they laid a complete egg against Carolina. So

408
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 1: then I was like, all right, well, maybe I should

409
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: be back out ended up taking Atlanta this one just

410
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: because what you said, six and a half seven points

411
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: in a division game letdown spot for New Orleans coming

412
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: off their big win over Tampa, Like Atlanta was the

413
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 1: obvious play here, but you know they were up twenty

414
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 1: four to six and then almost blew it too. Like

415
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 1: it just neither one of these teams seems super reliable

416
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,120
Speaker 1: right now. I'll say too rough under if you had

417
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: this one, this game was three to nothing ten seconds

418
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:47,159
Speaker 1: before halftime and the total is forty three. So Atlanta

419
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: gets a touchdown, it's still seventeen to seven going to

420
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, and then thirty two points in the

421
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,959
Speaker 1: last quarter to go to go easily over here. So

422
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 1: that was rough. But yeah, I U both of these

423
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 1: teams are in the playoffs right now. If the playoffs

424
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 1: started today, and obviously both these teams are on the

425
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 1: road as wild cards. You gotta put money on one

426
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 1: of their money lines to win a game. Which team

427
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 1: do you think has a better shot to win a

428
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 1: playoff game right now? I'm going with the Saints.

429
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 2: I think you've got to trust the team with the

430
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 2: better defense, and to me, Sean Payton has to proven

431
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 2: track record as a head coach. I still don't trust

432
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 2: this Falcons defense that weren't the worse in the league.

433
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 2: So I gotta go with the Saints, even though they

434
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 2: have the worst quarterback.

435
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: I think I might take the Falcons. Wow, it's the

436
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 1: quarterback thing. It's it's the playoffs. And am I really

437
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: taking Trevor Simeon on the road in a playoff game?

438
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I could do it.

439
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:43,640
Speaker 2: And I think here's the thing, you're not taking you're

440
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 2: not necessarily taking Trevor Simeon. You got to remember that

441
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 2: a playoff game, you're probably taking Taysom Hill, So he's

442
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 2: probably gonna be playing these minutes, and you're probably gonna

443
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 2: have to deal with a run heavy attack with Alvin

444
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 2: Kamara and Taysom Hill and whatever Sean Payton schemes up.

445
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 2: And we all know that Matt Ryan is a statue

446
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 2: behind and not great offensive line.

447
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 1: And this defense, look, they just gave up.

448
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 2: They were up twenty four to six and gave up

449
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 2: with giant leads to Trevor send me. And so what

450
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: does that say about this defense?

451
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, it says all you need to know. It's not great.

452
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: I think for me, you'd rather have the defense and

453
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 1: just enough run game and try to eke out an

454
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 1: ugly win. I think I'd rather have Matt Ryan and

455
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 1: just hope that hopefully Calvin Ridley comes back and hopefully

456
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: I can just outpass and outscore the other team. I

457
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 1: think we're both losing our money though, right, Yeah, I

458
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 1: think we agree we're losing our money. Oh yeah, without

459
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: a doubt, we're definitely losing, all right. So the big

460
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 1: upset of the day, biggest upset of the season so far.

461
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: Not the sexiest game on the slate. Bill's at Jaguars.

462
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 1: This game closed as Jaguars were a sixteen point dog.

463
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: We literally didn't get sixteen points in the game. Jaguars

464
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: won nine to six. That is the real score. This

465
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 1: is the Josh Allen game. Somehow Josh Allen, Bill's quarterback

466
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 1: got sacked by Josh Allen, edge rusher for the Jaguards

467
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: and intercepted by Josh Allen and humble recovery by Josh

468
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 1: Allen on Josh Allen. So that was fun. Oh yeah, Well,

469
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 1: what did you make of this game? This was an

470
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 1: absolute egg that the Bills laed to the.

471
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 2: The Bills have just been struggling offensively and I think

472
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 2: we saw some of that in their game against the

473
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins and it continued here. And it's really problematic

474
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 2: because we were just talking about Josh Allen as an

475
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 2: MVP candidate, and in two out of the last three

476
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: games he's really struggled.

477
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 1: He has some bad turnovers.

478
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 2: He has the turnovers against the Titans, and maybe that

479
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 2: might that game against the Titans. It probably looks a

480
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 2: lot different now based on what the Titans are doing.

481
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 2: But it's this This Bills offense has to get it together.

482
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 2: They were missing two starting linemen right tackle Spencer Brown,

483
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 2: guard John flesch Ciano, and Josh Allen really struggled under pressure.

484
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 2: Going into the fourth quarter. Allen was pressured on fourteen

485
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 2: or thirty eight drop backs, which thirty percent thirty seven percent,

486
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 2: and he went two for nine for nine yards, one

487
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 2: interception at three sex So under pressure, he's really been struggling.

488
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: So the Bills kind of got to get things together

489
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 2: on that end. Otherwise, I don't know if this team

490
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 2: is the contender that people thought they were after beating

491
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. So, I mean, they do have a side

492
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 2: and they have the Jets coming up next, so that's

493
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 2: a good bo those spot. But I'm a little concerned

494
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 2: for this team going forward, especially when you see how

495
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:37,959
Speaker 2: well the Patriots are playing.

496
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's kind of crazy to me that Josh Allen

497
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 1: is still right now after all these games, still the

498
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 1: favorite to an MVP, Like, what is this guy done

499
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: to be the MVP favorite right now? He hasn't been

500
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 1: good this whole season. Like we decided coming into the

501
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: season that Josh Allen was one of the MVP favorites.

502
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: He was, you know, near the top of the list

503
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 1: last year, and it feels like this is entirely about

504
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: Buffalo's record being good. And you know, Buffalo is still

505
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: right now is the super Bowl favorite, Like they're the

506
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 1: favorite to win the whole thing. They just lost the

507
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 1: Jaguars Urban Myers fighting Jaguars, and they're still the favorites

508
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl and they're still a favorite

509
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: to win MVP. Josh Allen. I understand still being the

510
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: favorite in the FC, just because THEFC seems so blown up,

511
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 1: wide open, but Josh Allen winning MVP seems bonkers to me.

512
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 1: Like he was bad today. He had the two interceptions,

513
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 1: five point six yards per attempt against the worst defense.

514
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: Passing defense in the league by DVLA hasn't looked good.

515
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: Like the passing offense has never clicked. They can't run

516
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 1: the ball at all. Like, am I crazy? Why is

517
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 1: Josh Allen the MVP favorite? I don't see it at all.

518
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: And I think maybe it has something to do with

519
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 2: just the three game stretch between Washington and Houston and

520
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 2: Kansas City. That's the only thing that and maybe they

521
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 2: just haven't adjusted well enough. But I mean it's clear

522
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: that that's not going to be the case for too

523
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 2: much longer.

524
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,959
Speaker 1: Maybe Josh Allen MVP is the one on the Jacksonville

525
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: team that had the sack and the interception. Maybe if

526
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: I click on Josh Allen, you get both of those.

527
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: Maybe we get both of those. Maybe that's the deal. Yeah,

528
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: that's hilarious. So I looked it up. So sixteen point

529
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: underdogs or longer. This is our fourth underdog of sixteen

530
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: or longer since two thousand and three in our Action

531
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: Lab database that has won the game. So here's what

532
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 1: I want to ask you, a little trivia for you.

533
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: This is the fourth straight year we've had a sixteen

534
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 1: point underdog win a game. Do you remember any of

535
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,919
Speaker 1: the three from the last three years. I don't remember

536
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: any of them. I'm not even gonna lie to you.

537
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 1: So here the are. Last year Jets over Rams. That

538
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: one was in late December, I think by a field goal.

539
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: The year before Dolphins over Patriots. I believe that was

540
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: the Week seventeen game when Tannehill beat Tom Brady and

541
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: that was kind of the beginning of the end there.

542
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 1: And then the one before that was Buffalo over Minnesota.

543
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 1: That was the one that a Buffalo is on the

544
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 1: right side of that one, and they absolutely trashed my vikings.

545
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: They won by like a couple of touchdowns on that one.

546
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: So this is the fourth biggest upset on the books

547
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 1: in the NFL since two thousand and three. Interestingly, though,

548
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 1: if you've bet anytime there's a sixteen point or longer underdog,

549
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: if you just bet them blindly since twenty eighteen, they're

550
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: four and sixteen straight up. But that has an ROI

551
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: of eighty six percent because the Jaggos are plus seven

552
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: to fifty in this game. So I don't know, what

553
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: do you think. Are you willing to just start blindly

554
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: betting these sixteen plus underdogs and just following the ROI

555
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 1: where it's going and the NFL is crazy?

556
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 2: I'm not necessarily because I think I think the chasm

557
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 2: between the halves and the haves not have really blown

558
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 2: and so I'm not willing to necessarily do that. But

559
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 2: I like, I'm always kind of followed the philosophy that

560
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 2: I typically don't bet a lot of double digit favorites

561
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: in the NFL, So a lot of times I'm tending

562
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 2: to look looking dog or pass. For me, it's all

563
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 2: about analyzing everything, and I want to know, what's the

564
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 2: spot is this team dealing with injuries? There has to

565
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 2: be a reason for it. It can't I can't do

566
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 2: things blown.

567
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing is that this one just did

568
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: not have a reason. I actually the Bills covering the

569
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half when I bet it, and then

570
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 1: sixteen when it closed. That was one of my favorite

571
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: plays of the day. So not just winning but winning

572
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 1: comfortably by you know, all Buffalo's wins have been fifteen

573
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 1: points or more. So they have five wins by that

574
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 1: many points. So you know, even when it started slow,

575
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: I was willing to still bet on Buffalo because that

576
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: was the case last week, and then they still ended

577
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 1: up just blowing you know, the Dolphins out. I think,

578
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: so to me, this game kind of gets lost a

579
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: little bit and some of the other bigger looking upsets

580
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,719
Speaker 1: just because it's like, ah, nine to six is a boring,

581
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: awful game. I think this is the one upset that

582
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: matters the most in the end, just because Buffalo this

583
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: is three losses now, so they're a little bit behind

584
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: in the one seed race, behind the Ravens, behind the Titans.

585
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: All three losses in the AFC too, and that's an

586
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: important tiebreaker if it comes down to it. Buffalo is

587
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 1: supposed to be the super Bowl favorite, and I think

588
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: that their path to the one seed just got a

589
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: lot harder with this loss today. Like this is as

590
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: much of a gimme you win as you get in

591
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: the NFL, and they just they should have had it.

592
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: You got to show up for these games. This to

593
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: me is a game that suddenly means you have to

594
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: play an extra playoff game because you're not the one seed,

595
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: and you got to play a next game on the

596
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: road because you're not the one seed. That's the cost

597
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: of losing to Jacksonville like this. Am I overstating it

598
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: or do you think it could be a pretty big

599
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: deal here.

600
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 2: I do think it's a pretty big deal. But I

601
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 2: think there's a broader picture here, and the picture is

602
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 2: the AFC isn't good. Like I mean, when you look

603
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 2: at the Titans right now, I do think you got

604
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 2: to give some Titans some.

605
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 1: Credit, but they rank to a murderer's role of a punt.

606
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 2: If they're seven to two right now, they're the number

607
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 2: one seed right now over everybody. And then it's the

608
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: Ravens and the charters and the bills. But when you

609
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,719
Speaker 2: look at all these teams, they're all flown. So I

610
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: think right now you've got to be looking at it an

611
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: NFC for who's going to be the Super Bowl champion,

612
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 2: because I just I don't really respect any of these

613
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: AFC team grips.

614
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: Now, then what's weird is eleven of the sixteen AFC

615
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: teams are over five hundred right now. So it's it's

616
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: not that none of them are good, it's that a

617
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: bunch of them are kind of good and they're just

618
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 1: maybe isn't great teams there? The entire AFC North over

619
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: five hundred, the entire AFCU West over five hundred. So

620
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: it's just any given a week, like if you put

621
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: all these teams in a tournament and just have them play,

622
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 1: pull out of a hat. You can just pull out

623
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: of a hat the winner too, and be like, yeah, okay,

624
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 1: this team beat that team. Yeah sure, why not that

625
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 1: could happen.

626
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, we were just talking about how well the Colts

627
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 2: are playing and how poorly the Broncos are playing. The

628
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: Broncs are five and four and the Colts are four

629
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 2: and five, so that it's just like that tells you

630
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: about the parody in the AFC right now.

631
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Colts are the twelve seed in the AFC

632
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 1: right now, so and the Colts are, like, you might

633
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 1: be like the fourth or fifth best team in the

634
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: AFC the way that they're playing. So another team that's

635
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: been hot. We're going to talk about their game, But

636
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: you want to talk about New England. They're only a

637
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: half game back now in the division. So right now

638
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: at bet MGM plus four to twenty five to win

639
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: the AFC East, do you like New England there? See?

640
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: I think the interesting thing is that they still have

641
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 2: two games against the Buffalo Bills.

642
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's going to decide everything.

643
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 2: And so I think right now I still want to

644
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily want to play it now.

645
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: They got a tough matchup against.

646
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: The Browns, but I think there's gonna be some spots

647
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: to play play New England as adult against the Titans,

648
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 2: against the Bills, and then obviously they close out with

649
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 2: the Jaguars and Dolphins. So I don't necessarily want to

650
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: take them to win a division, but I do think

651
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 2: there's some spots that if you want to take them later,

652
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: you're essentially playing the same thing.

653
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get that. I like that. But all right,

654
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: let's hit a couple of these other early upsetts just

655
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: real quick here, Raiders at Giants. This was my favorite

656
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 1: player of the week. I love the Raiders here. They

657
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 1: went to New York and New York beat I'm twenty

658
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: three to sixteen. I don't feel bad about the play here.

659
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: The Raiders were one in six in the red zone

660
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: and had three turnovers there. They got to the six,

661
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 1: the fourteen, the seven, and the seven and got no

662
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: points out of any of those, I think, and even

663
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: I also had a strip sack on the thirteen with

664
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: forty four seconds left, or they might have sent this overtime.

665
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: So Giants don't really do anything here. I feel like

666
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: this was maybe the flukiest of these big upsets today.

667
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: Am I just trying to placate myself here.

668
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 2: This was a weird game. Obviously, you had the turnovers.

669
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 2: You had Xavier McKinney's two interceptions, and I think that's that's.

670
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: The big thing.

671
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 2: It's like, when you turn the ball over, that's gonna happen.

672
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 2: But even coming into this game, I was a little worried.

673
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 2: I was well worried for the Raiders, just because the

674
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 2: incident with Henry Ruggs. That's a big loss for them,

675
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: so I don't know if that impacted the team, but

676
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 2: it's so funny because interesting. I was going into this

677
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 2: game and throughout the week the Giants, we thought they

678
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 2: were going to have a COVID outbreak, so they actually

679
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 2: tested thirteen of their players tested positive, including Saquon book Barkley,

680
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 2: and then it turned out that they were false positives.

681
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 2: So I actually took the Raiders initially with the minus three,

682
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 2: thinking that we get a COVID outbreak from the Giants

683
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 2: and this line will shoot up. And when that didn't happen,

684
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 2: I actually bought back when the Giants got out of

685
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 2: my position, and I just completely stayed off this game,

686
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 2: so I had no real read coming in.

687
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: That's interesting. Yeah, I did see breaking during the games. Today,

688
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: DeShawn Jackson signed with the Raiders, so that's pretty obviously

689
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: a like for like replacement for Rugs, so hopefully they

690
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: can add his speed dimension there. It is a costly

691
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: loss for the Raiders. I think if you play this

692
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: game today again ten times, I think the Raiders win

693
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 1: eight maybe nine times, So I'm not so worried about

694
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 1: them from this game. But we talked before the Raiders'

695
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 1: schedule it gets pretty tough coming up. This was the

696
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: gimme game before things really got hard for them. So

697
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 1: that entire division is within a half game of each

698
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: other now, and I do think that this is going

699
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: to make the Raiders a little bit undervalued. People are

700
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 1: just ready to jump off of them. They've been playing

701
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: pretty well, the defense is playing well. It's a good team,

702
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: but I think it could be another pretty damaging lost

703
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 1: long term for them. You're guys, the Dallas Cowboys coming

704
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: off the big Sunday night win at home, perfect against

705
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: the spread the Denver Broncos that we basically just stopped

706
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 1: caring about, and the Broncos come in and just thrashed

707
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. So it was thirty to nothing with six

708
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,439
Speaker 1: and a half minutes left. Dallas had had the ball

709
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: for thirteen minutes at that point of the game, and

710
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,800
Speaker 1: they did get a couple of touchdowns late, So thirty

711
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 1: to sixteen, but Broncos plus ten get the win plus

712
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 1: three seventy five to the money line. How worried did

713
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 1: this make you as a Dallas fan?

714
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 2: It didn't make me too worry. I thought it was

715
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 2: a really tough spot for the Cowboys. First, Dak hasn't

716
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 2: really played in two weeks because you had to buy

717
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 2: a week, and then obviously he didn't play last week,

718
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: so there was some rust there. He just had a

719
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 2: really really bad game. And then obviously the Cowboys drove

720
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 2: to Denver territory when their first two drives and turned

721
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 2: it over on down. So I just think we've totally

722
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: jumped the shark on this. I'm always going forward on

723
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,760
Speaker 2: fourth down thing. Sometimes you do have to take the points,

724
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: and taking the points could change the course of the game.

725
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 2: If it's six, if it's six nothing there as opposed

726
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: to zero zero. When the Broncos scored their first touchdown

727
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 2: and missed extra point, it's a tie game, and I

728
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 2: think sometimes we forget that. And I'm not really a

729
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 2: big fan of momentum, but I do think there's a

730
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 2: psychological impact when you've gone down there and you just

731
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 2: you don't get any points, and I think sometimes these

732
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:34,720
Speaker 2: games fire a lout of control.

733
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's true. There also is that play

734
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 1: early in the second half where Dallas has them pin

735
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 1: back deep, they block the punt and they're about to

736
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: get the ball ready to score and then the guy

737
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: tries to grab it, but it's past the line of scrimmage,

738
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 1: and so that just counts as like a fumbled punt basically.

739
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: And so the Broncos recover and not only get it back,

740
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: but get a first down out of it because it's

741
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 1: a fumble recovery. So you know, like you said, these

742
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 1: games take a light for their own. Sometimes you just

743
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: don't get the bounces, and the COWI is thinking the

744
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 1: bounces today, So you know, I feel like they were

745
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: supposed to lose last week to the Vikings. They have

746
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 1: the backups and they won. This just kind of evens

747
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: back out. Dallas is fine, They're in fine shape in

748
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: the division. Hurts for the one seed chase, but I

749
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: don't make too much of it for them.

750
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, without doubt, and I wish they were kind

751
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 2: of its kind of a bad omen when you put

752
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 2: the red strip in the middle of the helmet after

753
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,720
Speaker 2: being six and one and seven to zero against the Spress.

754
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: Sometimes you gotta leave things as it. So that's the

755
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 1: end of our upsets from the earliest light. Two other

756
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 1: big upsets we want to just talk about really quickly here.

757
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: Cardinals in the forty nine ers. This is a weird

758
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 1: one all week long. This line Arizona started at minus

759
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,240
Speaker 1: two and a half and then the slowly started inching

760
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: towards the pickum slowly started. San Francisco is a favorite,

761
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 1: ended up closing as Cardinals five and a half point underdogs,

762
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 1: and then the Cardinals just took the Niners of the

763
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 1: wood Chet thirty one to seventeen. Wasn't honestly even that close.

764
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan, Like, what are we doing with this guy?

765
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: Shannan has a favorite nine to twenty two and a

766
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: one against the spread twenty nine percent cover rate. He's

767
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 1: lost four of the last five outright as a favorite

768
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: this season, and last he's five and ten straight up

769
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 1: as a favorite. So why do we keep making kl

770
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: Shanahan a favorite? What's happening here? I'm not quite sure.

771
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest with you.

772
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 2: I was watching the Ravens game, the Ravens and Vikings

773
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 2: game in overtime, and by the time I cut this

774
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 2: game on, it was over and it was just the

775
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 2: four nine ers date.

776
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 1: They were two and.

777
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 2: A half point underdogs. You could get some threes in

778
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: some spots. They closed it minus five and it had

779
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 2: you got so much closing line value. And I think

780
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 2: Stucky said it on on Twitter. It was just like,

781
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 2: once you saw this line close five and a half,

782
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,280
Speaker 2: you knew it was the kiss of death. Yeah, publics

783
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 2: pilling on and they were gonna lose, and it just

784
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 2: never was cont I don't even think I'm gonna be

785
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: honest with you, I didn't watch a single second of

786
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 2: this game because as soon as I cut it on,

787
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: You're down fourteen nothing and the Cardinals thone.

788
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 1: They're doing trick plays. It's just it was a mess. Yeah,

789
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: that's exactly what I thought, too, is this line kept moving, moving, moving.

790
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 1: And then also like all the people's contests that locked

791
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:10,720
Speaker 1: in the middle of the week, and so there everyone

792
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: is getting in the forty nine ers as underdog still,

793
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,919
Speaker 1: so you know everybody's taking the Niners and that spy.

794
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 1: You have to you have to take all the value

795
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: that's there. Kyler Murray didn't play, Nuke, didn't play. AJ Green,

796
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: didn't play. Chase Edmonds went out like in the first

797
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 1: quarter with an injury. That's the entire offense, that's the

798
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: whole first string. Jj A Watt is out, Like you

799
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,759
Speaker 1: have to take San Francisco. You have to like them

800
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: in that spot. And yeah, when I when I saw

801
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: all that happening and just knew where this was, I

802
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 1: was like, oh man, I can't believe when they got

803
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:41,399
Speaker 1: to five and a half that I was too dumb

804
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: to remember to bet against Kyle Shanhan in the spot

805
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: and just against the public and where all the momentum

806
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: was so obviously heading. It's just how it goes. The

807
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: Niners are owned four at home, they can't win as favorites,

808
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 1: and yet somehow they're an underdog Monday Night next week

809
00:38:57,800 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: against the Rams, and it's probably gonna be a great

810
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: spot the forty Niners to bounce back, because that's just

811
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 1: how the NFL goes. One week, then you wipe the

812
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 1: slate clean and do something totally different than next week.

813
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 2: I think the interesting thing is that we do the

814
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 2: Rams losing in the fashion that they did. We actually

815
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 2: saw this line stable loze, because otherwise this would have

816
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:15,439
Speaker 2: gone through the woof.

817
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure we're gonna see the vibe that

818
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 1: we don't see. Yeah, that's true. So last one, like

819
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 1: you said, the Rams Sunday Night Titans twenty eight to sixteen,

820
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,280
Speaker 1: not that close. The Rams were never in this game.

821
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 1: Mats Stafford went full Carson Wentz falling down in the

822
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 1: end zone, throws the interception and nearly a pick six.

823
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 1: They get a touchdown the Titans due they have Ramsey

824
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,959
Speaker 1: the ball back, and the very next play Stafford throws

825
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: an actual pick six, and so that was basically game.

826
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 1: I thought those two plays were the entire game. The

827
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 1: Titans actually had one hundred and ninety five yards the

828
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 1: entire game, so not like this was a dominant performance

829
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 1: by their offense. What do you think with the Titans defense? Though?

830
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 1: This team keeps showing up and I wrote them off early,

831
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: but man, they're playing a well. They're really playing well. Obviously.

832
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 2: I think one of the big things that I'm seeing

833
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 2: is they're actually damn a pass rush and they got

834
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 2: to Matthew Stafford five times, so I think that was big.

835
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 2: That caused some pressure. And this team, the Rams, they

836
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 2: had nine points through like four quarters. So I got

837
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: to give the Titans some credit. They've run through a

838
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 2: murderous role of opposing teams, and you looked at them.

839
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 2: They played the Bills, they beat them, They beat the Chiefs,

840
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:26,800
Speaker 2: they beat the coach who were playing really well, and

841
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 2: then they go ahead and beat the Rams. So two

842
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 2: straight real games and they found a way to win.

843
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 2: And you know, I think this line was one of

844
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 2: those lines that really got to people because this line

845
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 2: was four and a half. It moves two and a

846
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 2: half points on the loss of Derrick Henry. I know

847
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: in today's NFL a lot of people think that running

848
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 2: backs don't mean anything, but the market actually believed that

849
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry was worth two and a half points. And

850
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: the whole public's all over the Rams and the Rams

851
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,800
Speaker 2: completely no show. So got to give it the Titans

852
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 2: some credit.

853
00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean we should have known to be care

854
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: full when the line moved that much. A lot of

855
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: starting quarterbacks don't move the line two and a half

856
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: points when they're out. So you know, they did get

857
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 1: Adrian and Peterson Peterson his one hundred and nineteenth preer

858
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: rushing touchdown. My guy only forty five more to catch

859
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: them at Smith. You know, just play another couple of decades,

860
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,879
Speaker 1: maybe he'll get there. But yeah, Titans defense really good.

861
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Simmons had three sacks, Denico Au three had one

862
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 1: and a half sacks. Kevin Byron had to pick six.

863
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: Defense looks good and it's been looking really good the

864
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 1: last few weeks. Somehow we reached the midpoint of the season,

865
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 1: and I think that Mike Rabel or Cliff Kingsbury is

866
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 1: the coach of the year. I don't know which one

867
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 1: and how did this happen? Like I feel like I'm

868
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 1: just I'm just gonna go down with the ship. If

869
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: this is the world we live in. And the Titans

870
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 1: Cardinals that awful Week one game that we saw, if

871
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 1: that was the super Bowl preview, and these are just

872
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 1: the two best teams on the one seed's going to

873
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 1: wire to wire. I'm just going down with it. I guys,

874
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna lose to all the times like I

875
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 1: can't get there like a crazy on this or is

876
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: it time to come around on these these coaches.

877
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's time to come around on them.

878
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: Obviously.

879
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 2: Our podcast producer Matt Mitchell will tell you that the

880
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 2: Cardinals they benefit for some turnovers from the fort nine

881
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 2: ers and fumbles, and the Titans, I just I still

882
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 2: don't know what to make of this team right now,

883
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 2: but they have an easy schedule, so Mike Rabel has

884
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 2: a shot and the defense is actually playing the best

885
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: it has in the Mike rabel era. But I think

886
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 2: there's gonna be some bias for Bill Belichick, especially if

887
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 2: they could find a way to win the AFC East

888
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: or get into the playoffs with the rookie quarterback.

889
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 1: Belichick's gonna have a shot.

890
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 2: And obviously they lose Tom Brady last year, they lose

891
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 2: They lose the most players to COVID absences in the NFL,

892
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 2: and he could bring his team to the playoffs. I

893
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 2: think Belichick is He's probably gonna get some biased from me.

894
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Belichick certainly alla should be on the

895
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: race for that. Titans seven and two. They're the one

896
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 1: seed right now, and like you said, the schedule is

897
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 1: crazy easy. They play the Saints next week, that might

898
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,839
Speaker 1: be the hardest game left on the schedule. They still

899
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 1: play the Texans, They've still played the Jaguars and the Dolphins.

900
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: They played the Texans again. Later you know, they play

901
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 1: the Patriots or the Steelers, like those are the games

902
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: that are the hardest ones left in the schedule. They

903
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,479
Speaker 1: don't have to play the Colts anymore, like they're done

904
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: with that, So this really opens up for them if

905
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 1: if they can if the defense keeps playing this well

906
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 1: and Julio Jones looked healthy again for the first time

907
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,600
Speaker 1: in a while. AJ Brown is definitely healthy. It's not

908
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 1: the team it was with Derrick Henry, but I don't know,

909
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 1: it might be some time time to give them a

910
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: little credit. They have a tie break against the Bills also,

911
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 1: which could matter for AFC positioning. You know, I don't

912
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:44,880
Speaker 1: know that I believe in them, but they have a

913
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 1: pretty good shot at this point at getting to the

914
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: one seed coming out of that division. If you're the

915
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 1: one seed, you got to give them a chance. You

916
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 1: get to skip one of the games and have home

917
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 1: field to get to the super Bowl, so they could

918
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 1: be unplayed. You think the Titans have a shot at

919
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 1: the super Bowl here?

920
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 2: I do think you into one seed, you have a shot,

921
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 2: and I think the best way to do is to

922
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 2: win the division and then obviously beating the second best

923
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 2: team in the division twice already. So I think one

924
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 2: of the things I always like to bet is if

925
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: a team makes the one seed, team to have a

926
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 2: buy it tically win that first game more often than not.

927
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 2: And one of the more underrated things is that we

928
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: can see Dereck Henry in the playoffs and getting that

929
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,720
Speaker 2: by week it just gives them another week to be healthy.

930
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 2: And I think the interesting thing is one of the

931
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 2: reasons why people were fading the Titans today was because

932
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 2: we thought they lost their identity in the play action

933
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 2: pass and I didn't see them really lose their identity.

934
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 1: Still. They still rushed the ball and they're still.

935
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 2: Able to operate in the play action as a game,

936
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 2: So this team has a shot.

937
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, we were balls really low on the Titans comparatively

938
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 1: because we were worried about Arthur Smith being gone. Credit

939
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 1: to Downing too. He's really you know, it was not

940
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 1: what we liked earlier in the first few weeks, but

941
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 1: he's really got that offense grinding well, like he gets credited,

942
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,800
Speaker 1: I think, for keeping that identity, keeping them what they're doing.

943
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: Play actions still opening up. Tannehill's still playing well, so

944
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 1: we'll see. We'll see what's happening there. That's the last

945
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: for upsets, So let's hit the rest of Sunday's Action

946
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 1: to wrap up Week nine. What was supposed to be

947
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 1: the game of the week between the Chiefs and the

948
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 1: Packers was an absolute dud. Chiefs won thirteen to seven

949
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 1: in a snoozer. Jordan Love made his debut. Not good,

950
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 1: but somehow to shot do it anyways, because the Chiefs

951
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 1: offense just has completely disappeared. Gannas City averaged three point

952
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: eight yards per play. Chiefs games have gone under four

953
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 1: straight by more than twenty points a game. Gannas City

954
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: fails to cover at home for an eighth straight game,

955
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs have now covered four of twenty in

956
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: their last games. So Chiefs get the win, but still

957
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 1: not looking good doing it. Justin Herbert bounced back big

958
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: game thirty two of thirty eight, three hundred and fifty

959
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 1: six yards and two scores led the late game winning

960
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: field goal drive. Charges beat the Eagles twenty seven twenty four.

961
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 1: Philly ran all game that scoring drives of ten sixteen,

962
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: ten ten plays, but wasn't quite enough. The Chargers had

963
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 1: the ball lasting up the win. Rough beat if you

964
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 1: were an underbetter here ten to seven at the half.

965
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 1: But we had four straight touchdowns of the second half

966
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: and then that Dustin Hopkins kick covered for the Chargers

967
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: and hit the over. We mentioned Bill Belichick four and

968
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,760
Speaker 1: h lifetime against Sam Donald. Belichick has beaten Sam Donald

969
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 1: by thirty five, thirty three, fourteen, and now eighteen. Today.

970
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 1: Donald had an interception on three straight possessions, including a

971
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,800
Speaker 1: pick six. Panthers did get Christian McCaffrey back though twenty

972
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 1: four six for New England, and Tua was a surprise

973
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 1: scratch for Miami. Both Rahiem and I were big on

974
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: the Texans all the week. Tyrod Taylor finally back. He

975
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 1: was terrible. Jacoby Brissett came in ugly, ugly, ugly game,

976
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 1: seventeen to nine Miami way under. Miami gets the win

977
00:46:56,320 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 1: in the cover. Nine turnovers in this game, five interceptions

978
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: and four loss bumbles. Ugly game. Sometimes that's how football goes.

979
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:07,759
Speaker 1: All right, let's hear a quick word from our sponsor

980
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:09,720
Speaker 1: and get to Monday Night Football.

981
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 3: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by BETMGM, and

982
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 3: to celebrate the twenty twenty one NFL season, BETMGM is

983
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 3: offering a great sign up offer for our listeners, a

984
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 3: one thousand.

985
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 1: Dollars risk free course bet.

986
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 3: You just open an account at betmgm and make your

987
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: first deposit, then make your first bet. If that bet wins,

988
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 3: the money is yours and if your bet doesn't win,

989
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:39,240
Speaker 3: betmgm will refund you in free bets.

990
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 1: Up to one thousand dollars. It's that simple.

991
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 3: To get started, just click on the link in this

992
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 3: episode description. Betmgm has been a great podcast partner and

993
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 3: they've got all the best features for NFL betting like

994
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 3: live betting and daily ons boosts. Plus, betmgm is compatible

995
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 3: with our bets and technology, so when you place a

996
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 3: wager at betmgm, that bet and automatically.

997
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 1: Be tracked in your action app.

998
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:04,919
Speaker 3: So open an account today and make your first bet

999
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 3: risk free up to one thousand dollars. Just click on

1000
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 3: the link in this episode description to get started. Must

1001
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 3: be twenty one or older and physically located in Michigan,

1002
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 3: New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada,

1003
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 3: or Pennsylvania.

1004
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 1: Please gamble responsibly.

1005
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 3: Gambling problem call one eight hundred five two to two

1006
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,479
Speaker 3: forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada. One eight hundred

1007
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 3: gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. One eight

1008
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 3: hundred nine with it in Indiana. One eight hundred two

1009
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 3: seven zero seven to one one seven in Michigan. One

1010
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 3: eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee,

1011
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 3: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa or one eight

1012
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 3: eight eight five three to two thirty five hundred in Virginia.

1013
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,760
Speaker 3: That's sync not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening.

1014
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 3: Let's get back to the show all right.

1015
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 1: Monday Night, Speaking of ugly games, Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers.

1016
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is a six and a half point favorite. The

1017
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: total for this game thirty eight point five. Right now,

1018
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 1: I recall seeing a Monday night game with a total

1019
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: like this in a long time. What do you think

1020
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 1: we've been talking about the Bears on this one all

1021
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 1: the week? Are you're still like in Chicago here?

1022
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 2: I still like the Bears. They're getting plus seven. Now

1023
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 2: this line actually went up, but you have a low

1024
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 2: total of thirty eight. Ods makers are telling us that

1025
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 2: points are gonna be at a premium. So I really

1026
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 2: like the Bears given that, But how can you lay

1027
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:22,879
Speaker 2: seven points.

1028
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: With the offense with JN. Roethlisberger.

1029
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 2: This offense is just twenty thirty epa to play thirty

1030
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: first success rate, thirty second and drop back success rate

1031
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,439
Speaker 2: in twenty eighth and russell success rate. They can't run

1032
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:36,280
Speaker 2: or pass. They don't generate a ton of explosive plays

1033
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 2: or twentieth in explosive run play rate and twenty eighth

1034
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 2: and explosive pass play rate.

1035
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,479
Speaker 1: So I just seven points. There's a lot of points here.

1036
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:47,359
Speaker 2: Obviously, a lot of underdogs have covered, so I think

1037
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 2: you're gonna have a lot of the public just looking

1038
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 2: to back the Stealers on a bellout game. But I

1039
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 2: just I like the Bears in this spot. I think

1040
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 2: Justin Fields is improven. And you look at the Steelers

1041
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 2: is a favorite season. He lost out raise five and

1042
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 2: a half point favorite home favorites against the Raiders. He

1043
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 2: lost his two and a half point home favorites against

1044
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 2: the Bengals. And it's not like the Bengals or the

1045
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,239
Speaker 2: Ravens are Bengals or the Raiders.

1046
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 1: Are that great. So thinks this is just too too

1047
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 1: many points. I'm gonna go with the Bears. Yeah, I

1048
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:21,399
Speaker 1: like the Bears here. I think that the matchup sort

1049
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: of favors them a little bit. The Bears have been

1050
00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: not so good against the run on defense, but Pittsburgh

1051
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 1: can't run the ball that well. Their line still hasn't

1052
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 1: been blocking, and Pittsburgh is elite pass defense can't really

1053
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 1: pass anyway, so that's not really that big of a deal.

1054
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 1: I think the Bears will run the ball. Montgomery looks

1055
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 1: like he might be back for this game, so that'd

1056
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:43,880
Speaker 1: be big for Chicago. They've been running well fields. I

1057
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 1: think had his best game last week as a pro.

1058
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:50,359
Speaker 1: So yeah, I just think seven points is just too

1059
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: much when when the line is this low, when the

1060
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 1: total is this low, I st don't think we're gonna

1061
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 1: last scoring here. So I noticed Bears games this season

1062
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 1: are averaging thirty nine point eight points a game, Steelers

1063
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: games thirty seven point seven points a game, So Steelers

1064
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,240
Speaker 1: have yet to have a game with more than forty

1065
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: six points. This line, this total is pretty low, But

1066
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,839
Speaker 1: would you think about taking the under even as low

1067
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 1: as it is here? With as little scoring as these

1068
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 1: teams are playing in.

1069
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,959
Speaker 2: I never want to give out a number that's moved,

1070
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 2: all right, So I think it's so low that you

1071
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,399
Speaker 2: can kind of call for Steves and get over it.

1072
00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 2: Like even when you look at that Seattle in Pittsburgh

1073
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 2: game that we saw a couple of weeks ago, that

1074
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: game went over to total. So I think this keeps

1075
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,319
Speaker 2: creeping down. I'm going I'm having appetite at Old.

1076
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense to me. We talked a lot

1077
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 1: too about Mike Tomlin. You take Mike Tomlin as an underdog,

1078
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 1: you fade him as a big favorite because Steelers just

1079
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: have They just like to play down to these sort

1080
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: of teams. So Tomlin. According to bat Labs, Tomlin has

1081
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 1: more than a field goal favorite fifty four sixty nine

1082
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 1: and one against the spread, so only covering forty four

1083
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 1: percent of the time, and he's on a five game

1084
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 1: losing streak against the spread. Three of those games lost

1085
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 1: outright as a favorite of more than a field goal.

1086
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,720
Speaker 1: So that's my last question for you here. Seven points

1087
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 1: is a prime spot as a home favorite for a

1088
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 1: teaser or you know, would you tease Pittsburgh here and

1089
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 1: count on them to get the win? Do you think

1090
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,399
Speaker 1: Chicago had like a plus two twenty five money line,

1091
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:21,719
Speaker 1: do you think that they have a chance. Would you

1092
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:24,600
Speaker 1: play either side there? I'd be looking to play Chicago.

1093
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 2: I think Chicago's live in this spot, and obviously if

1094
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 2: Kylo Matt comes.

1095
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 1: Back, I like it even more so.

1096
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 2: The way these underdogs have covered this week, I see

1097
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 2: no reason have to take a flyerund from Chicago here.

1098
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I'm not going to put too much

1099
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 1: on it, but I think we both like Chicago to cover.

1100
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 1: And look, it's just math at that point. If there's

1101
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,759
Speaker 1: only thirty eight forty points in the game and Chicago

1102
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,719
Speaker 1: is within a score, we're looking at like twenty to

1103
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:56,439
Speaker 1: sixteen or you know, nineteen seventeen, just one of those

1104
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 1: ugly who knows what happens games and it probably just

1105
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 1: comes down to, you know, a fluke interception that bounced

1106
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 1: off the guy's hands, or a kick that goes off

1107
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: the crossbar or missed extra point or something. So I

1108
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 1: think this could be a spot where, you know, when

1109
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 1: you look at the implied odds plus two twenty five

1110
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: is thirty one percent. I don't think Pittsburgh necessarily wins

1111
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:17,439
Speaker 1: this game more than two out of three times here,

1112
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 1: so I think there's a little value there. I think

1113
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 1: we both like Chicago to get the covers our best player.

1114
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 1: Do you agree? Oh yeah, without a doubt. All right,

1115
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 1: let's get out of here with our Week ten Hot Reed.

1116
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 1: Get some early picks for next week Hot Rap sevent.

1117
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 2: Rights, ice Cream.

1118
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 1: Nineteen, Sound nineteen. Who do you like on the Week

1119
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 1: ten hot reed.

1120
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings plus three. I know

1121
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 2: we spoke earlier a beout how the Vicans continue to

1122
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:50,280
Speaker 2: implode week after week, but Dan doesn't make them exempt.

1123
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:50,880
Speaker 1: From covering spreads.

1124
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 2: It covered the spread against the Baltimore Racers on Sunday afternoon.

1125
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,759
Speaker 2: Look the aas Vakers open, this line is three. My

1126
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 2: model actually makes this close to a pick them. And

1127
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 2: when you look at this Chargers team, they're mess defensively

1128
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 2: right now. They've had injuries to Sante Samuel Jr. Michael Davis,

1129
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: and I don't know how they're gonna deal with Justin

1130
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 2: Jefferson and Adam Thieler.

1131
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: And I know what you're thinking.

1132
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 2: Mike Zammer is super conservative, and his super conservative ways

1133
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 2: might actually play right into He might buck into a

1134
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,399
Speaker 2: winning strategy because this Chargers run defense is dead last

1135
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 2: in rushing EPA, dead last and rushing success rate. They

1136
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 2: allowed fifty one point seven percent of rushing plays the

1137
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 2: great out as successful. I'm expecting Dalvin Cook to have

1138
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 2: a big day. My model makes this game close to

1139
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 2: a pick. I think this line is going to go down,

1140
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 2: so you want to go grab that three. I think

1141
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 2: there's some two and a half in the market. I

1142
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 2: probably buy this something. You get a cheap by and

1143
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 2: minus one twenty or so. And then we spoke all

1144
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 2: the time about the Chargers. They struggle on early downs,

1145
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 2: the twenty fifth and early down success rate, and they

1146
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 2: made their living on third and fourth downs, which is

1147
00:54:57,800 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 2: what they did against the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. So

1148
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 2: give me the Vikings here. I think they might even

1149
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:04,800
Speaker 2: have a chance to win this game outway.

1150
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: I mean, I hope you're right. I have no idea

1151
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:09,279
Speaker 1: what to make of either of these teams, So I'm

1152
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 1: just gonna let you take the lead on that one.

1153
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Colts at home against the

1154
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars ten and a half point favorites. Indianapolis is

1155
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:20,919
Speaker 1: right back in the exact same spot that they were

1156
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:24,880
Speaker 1: this week. They were double digit favorites against the Jets.

1157
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:28,919
Speaker 1: The Jets were coming off this huge upset win and

1158
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 1: then just came and it's like the line was not

1159
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 1: as high as it should have been because we just

1160
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 1: seen this big upset win. So I think that's the

1161
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 1: case with the Jags two after beating the Bills. I

1162
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 1: think this line is gonna end up getting closer to

1163
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 1: two touchdowns by the time we get to kick off.

1164
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 1: Teams that were double digit favorites and got the upset

1165
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 1: win when they stay underdogs the falling game, they're fifteen

1166
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,320
Speaker 1: and twenty eight against the spread, so thirty five percent

1167
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 1: and only one in seven against the spread when they're

1168
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 1: double digit underdogs again. The Colts just got that trend

1169
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: that was this week, and I know that the Jets

1170
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 1: almost ended up covering with that crazy Thursday night late game,

1171
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:08,240
Speaker 1: but Colts get the extra rest of this week. Irwin

1172
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:10,880
Speaker 1: Myers guys are coming off in emotional win, their big

1173
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:13,880
Speaker 1: win to save the season and over Buffalo. I just

1174
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 1: think that, you know, Indianapolis, the way they play with

1175
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 1: good defense and running the ball, that just is a

1176
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:22,080
Speaker 1: good setup for beating up on bad teams. The Jaguars

1177
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 1: are still a bad team. I like Indianapolis big here.

1178
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I like that.

1179
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 2: I think it's a good spot for them, especially with

1180
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:31,320
Speaker 2: them coming off the Thursday night. It's like one of

1181
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 2: the things I like to do is I like to

1182
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 2: price that almost like a half of a bi week,

1183
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:37,480
Speaker 2: so this team gets rested up. The Coats have to

1184
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 2: win this game. They're four and five in a year

1185
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:41,959
Speaker 2: and this is this is their season.

1186
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 1: So I like it. All right, what's your other high red, I'm.

1187
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:49,319
Speaker 2: Gonna go with the Dallas Cowboys Atlanta Falcons over fifty two.

1188
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 2: I think my model makes this closer to round fifty four,

1189
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:54,919
Speaker 2: so I think you get some value there. Obviously, Dak

1190
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 2: has he missed a couple of weeks, and now he's back.

1191
00:56:58,400 --> 00:57:02,240
Speaker 2: He's gonna play a much better game against this Falcons defense,

1192
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:05,839
Speaker 2: which really can't stop anybody. We saw them give up

1193
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 2: twenty plus points to Trevor Simeon. But this, this Cowboys

1194
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:11,760
Speaker 2: offense is much much better than what we saw last week.

1195
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 2: And I think you have I think you have a

1196
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:15,440
Speaker 2: shootout one deck, so I'm gonna go with that.

1197
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 1: I can see that definitely a time for the Cowboys

1198
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 1: offense to bounce back a little bit. I'm going ugly

1199
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:22,640
Speaker 1: on my last pick here, but I know that you're

1200
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 1: gonna like it because this was your pick on Friday.

1201
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 1: I'm going to back you here. The Detroit Lions on

1202
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 1: the road in Pittsburgh nine and a half point favorites.

1203
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 1: Right now, I've bet that one Monday before the Monday

1204
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 1: night game, Look, we just talked about the Steelers this

1205
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 1: The Pittsburgh's offense is just not playing well right now.

1206
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:44,800
Speaker 1: They're not scoring a lot of points. They should not be,

1207
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 1: you know, basically double digit favorites against anyone right now.

1208
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 1: So I think this line should be under a touchdown. Honestly,

1209
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: i'd put it like around six six and a half

1210
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 1: if I was setting it the Lions. I think there's

1211
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 1: a chance, you know, like we said, Pittsburgh could lose

1212
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 1: to Chicago, and if they do, this line is definitely

1213
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 1: gonna move. Even it's just kind of another ugly looking game,

1214
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,800
Speaker 1: it's easy to see the line moving towards Detroit a

1215
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 1: little bit. So another trend here for you. Detroit obviously

1216
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 1: still hasn't got their win. I'm not saying they're gonna

1217
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 1: win the game here, and they need to cover. Jared

1218
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: Gath has been great at the back door cover. So

1219
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 1: if you take winless teams facing winning teams that aren't unbeaten,

1220
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 1: which obviously that's the Steelers right now. They're five and

1221
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 1: four those teams after Week four sixty three thirty eight

1222
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 1: and two against the spread, So sixty two percent cover there.

1223
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 1: The Lions just it, it's too many points. The Lions

1224
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:41,200
Speaker 1: haven't been that bad. They're playing decently, they're fighting hard.

1225
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 1: You know again, Mike Tomlin has a big favorite playing

1226
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 1: down to the opponents. It's all the same stuff that

1227
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 1: we're seeing with this game. It's a short week for

1228
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Detroit coming off of bye. I like the Lions.

1229
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 1: It's ugly, but it's just too many points. Oh yeah,

1230
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 1: you know, I totally agree with you.

1231
00:58:58,200 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 2: I just I think that the reason are pretty similar

1232
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 2: to wild like the Bears on Monday Night.

1233
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:05,440
Speaker 1: I like, you just don't want to lay big points

1234
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 1: with this offense.

1235
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 2: I think one thing before we get out of here,

1236
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 2: one of the things that you want to look at

1237
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 2: next week is and I'm not really necessarily there yet,

1238
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 2: but this philadelph of the Eagles team then were playing

1239
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 2: a Broncos team which is lost. They're banged up on

1240
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:21,960
Speaker 2: offensive line. They lost glast Now with an injury, they

1241
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 2: lost right tackle Bobby Macy with an injury. So I

1242
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 2: know a lot of people gonna betting to Broncos because

1243
00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 2: of that big win over Cowboys. But I want you

1244
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 2: to tread lightly, and I think this line goes with three.

1245
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:36,960
Speaker 1: We're gonna be looking to play the Eagles. Yeah, I

1246
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 1: have my eye on the Eagles a little bit. They

1247
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 1: suddenly in the last two weeks decided, Hey, I think

1248
00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 1: we're a running team. And early in the season I

1249
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 1: kept noticing like their DVA running was out has been

1250
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 1: top five the entire season, even with Miles Sanders out,

1251
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:51,880
Speaker 1: They're still running well. And last week they ran like

1252
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:54,800
Speaker 1: forty times on the Lions ran all over them. So

1253
00:59:55,160 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 1: I thought the Chargers were the right pick today and

1254
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 1: ended up being just barely the right pick. But I wondered,

1255
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:02,760
Speaker 1: what the Eagles just run all game? And they kind

1256
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 1: of did that again. So Jalen hurts the way this

1257
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:07,680
Speaker 1: team is set up. I don't know. I kind of

1258
01:00:07,840 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 1: not ready to count the Eagles completely out. I sort

1259
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,160
Speaker 1: of like the identity of that they're building for themselves.

1260
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's been there's been sign there's a betting syndicate

1261
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 2: out Europe who's been betting the Eagles four or five

1262
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 2: weeks straight.

1263
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 1: I mean literally every single week.

1264
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,200
Speaker 2: They were Like I was talking with somebody on Twitter today,

1265
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 2: were making a joke about how the Eagles betting syndicate

1266
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 2: has to learn the time their bets a little bit

1267
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 2: better because it's possible they could have got a three

1268
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:34,400
Speaker 2: and a half, but they've been moving early. So do

1269
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:35,800
Speaker 2: you want to look out for this? If this nine

1270
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 2: gets to three, you might want to take the Eagles

1271
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 2: next week.

1272
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:41,240
Speaker 1: All right, A little bonus hot read for you there.

1273
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:43,480
Speaker 1: So that is going to wrap it up today at

1274
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:46,960
Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast. Please rate, subscribe, and review of

1275
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 1: the podcast if you haven't yet stuck in Rayba on

1276
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 1: our back Wednesday night with their six pack betting guide.

1277
01:00:53,120 --> 01:00:55,520
Speaker 1: Rahiem and I are back Friday to run through the slate,

1278
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:57,320
Speaker 1: look at our three big games of the week and

1279
01:00:57,400 --> 01:01:00,920
Speaker 1: preview them. Get the look ahead for you war Rahiem Palmer.

1280
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 1: I am Brandon Anderson. This has been the Action Network Podcast.

1281
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:07,120
Speaker 1: We are on to week ten.