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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume
Speaker 1: heavy sun to every hopeful. If you guys are having
Speaker 1: a great weekend as promised, We're getting to our Eastern
Speaker 1: Conference Finals preview today, So I mean the New York
Speaker 1: Knicks and the Indiana Pacers what should be a very
Speaker 1: entertaining series. Two very different teams than we expected to
Speaker 1: see at this point in time, but two teams that
Speaker 1: are playing great basketball led by two elite guards. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be super fascinating. We're going to get into it,
Speaker 1: like we usually do, from a bunch of different angles.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about the season series, we'll talk about the
Speaker 1: gambling odds on DraftKings, we'll talk about the pacers with
Speaker 1: the ball, the Knicks with the ball. We'll talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about the respective bench units, and then we
Speaker 1: will get to our prediction. You guys know the job
Speaker 1: before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops to Night
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Speaker 1: that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media
Speaker 1: feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Make sure you guys
Speaker 1: follow us there. In last but not least, keep dropping
Speaker 1: mail bag questions in the YouTube comments that we can
Speaker 1: get to to our mail bags in our mail bags
Speaker 1: throughout the remainder of the post season. All right, let's
Speaker 1: talk some basketball. So season series the Knicks one two
Speaker 1: to one. Two of the games took place in the
Speaker 1: first couple weeks of the season. That's the only game
Speaker 1: where like everyone actually played was in October, so not
Speaker 1: too much to take away there, But the metrics that
Speaker 1: came out of those three games. The Knicks log Day
Speaker 1: one to twenty six offensive rating in the three games.
Speaker 1: The Pacers log Day one to fifteen offensive rating in
Speaker 1: the three games. The Knicks also dominated the glass. They
Speaker 1: grabbed fifty three point six percent of available rebounds and
Speaker 1: they grabbed over thirty percent of their own misses in
Speaker 1: this matchup in the regular season. Our odds, again, they
Speaker 1: are provided by our partner DraftKings. The Knicks are currently
Speaker 1: a minus one forty favorite to win the series. I
Speaker 1: think that's a good betting opportunity. On the Indiana side,
Speaker 1: I view this as very much a coin flip series,
Speaker 1: and I think the Pacers are a slightly better team,
Speaker 1: But I think the Knicks have home court advantage and
Speaker 1: that that obviously matters, so that to me makes it
Speaker 1: a coin flip and in a coin flip to get
Speaker 1: Indy at plus one twenty is obviously the better price
Speaker 1: for me. Let's start with the Pacers on the ball,
Speaker 1: so matchups. McHale Bridges regard Tyres Haliburton. He did a
Speaker 1: good job there in the regular season. Tyre's average seventeen
Speaker 1: to nine in the three games on forty four percent
Speaker 1: from the field twenty six percent from three But again
Speaker 1: it's worth mentioning, like we did in the Friday Night Show,
Speaker 1: Tyres is just playing at a substantially higher level now
Speaker 1: than he did when these games took place. But Michale
Speaker 1: does have the tools for it. He has a good motor,
Speaker 1: he navigates screens well, he's got the length to pressure
Speaker 1: from behind, he can peel switch, and I think we
Speaker 1: will see some switching, especially in Halliburton Siakam actions, in
Speaker 1: this series. I'd also consider if I was Tom Thibodeaux
Speaker 1: and McHale Bridges trying to deny Tyres Haliburton the ball.
Speaker 1: The Cavs did a lot of this in their second
Speaker 1: round series and actually had some success playing Halliburton into
Speaker 1: some passive stretches just by denying him the ball. Like
Speaker 1: ball goes in the basket instead of letting him inbound
Speaker 1: just stand in front of Tyres Haliburton and maybe he'll
Speaker 1: just kind of let someone else take it and just
Speaker 1: kind of it just kind of plays him into passivity.
Speaker 1: So that's something that I would potentially consider if I
Speaker 1: was Tom Thibodham. They have Jalen Brunson guard Andrew Nemhard,
Speaker 1: which I think is fascinating. Right. What you would think
Speaker 1: is you put him on a guy like aaron Ne Smith.
Speaker 1: But I think this is the right call to move
Speaker 1: Brunson over to Nemhard. Nie Smith is playing super well
Speaker 1: as of late, and he brings a ton of athletic
Speaker 1: force to the position, so it actually makes sense to
Speaker 1: have Josh Hart, a better athlete, try to match Aaron
Speaker 1: Nesmith's athletic force. Now, as far as Brunson on Nemhard,
Speaker 1: there will still be some issues there. Indiana will find
Speaker 1: ways to attack Brunson there. Nemhard can run action on
Speaker 1: the ball that will force Brunson to either pursue through
Speaker 1: screens or to switch on to Biggs. Nemhard will also
Speaker 1: run inverted action as the screener. He'll screen for Halliburton
Speaker 1: or he'll screen for Siakam and in those situations, I
Speaker 1: expect Brunson to hedge and recover. And so in those gaps,
Speaker 1: like Nemhard screens for let's say yakam and Brunson doesn't
Speaker 1: want to switch on a Siakam, he'll throw the hedge
Speaker 1: Nemhart slips out of it, there's an opening there for
Speaker 1: Nemhart to catch and try to look to attack. And
Speaker 1: so that's a big way that I think we'll see
Speaker 1: Nemhard look to attack Brunson. I emphasize differences in the
Speaker 1: Friday Night Show. If you guys remember between what the
Speaker 1: Celtics Knicks matchup looked like and what the Pacers Knicks
Speaker 1: matchup looked like. This is one of those ways, like
Speaker 1: Brunson defended really well in that Celtics series, but it
Speaker 1: was different. There's a lot of like one on one
Speaker 1: defense against Brunson, or excuse me, against Jalen Brown and
Speaker 1: against Jason Tatum. They weren't really posting him so much
Speaker 1: as they were isoing him, and they were kind of
Speaker 1: like settling for tough, contested jump shots over the top
Speaker 1: of Brunson. This is going to be more of a
Speaker 1: test of speed. It's gonna be a situation where he's
Speaker 1: gonna need to fly around out of those hedges to
Speaker 1: get back into rotation as Nemhart looks to attack. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Brunson defended well against Boston, but this is a different matchup.
Speaker 1: How well Brunson defends will play a big role. Josh
Speaker 1: Hard on Aaron E. Smith. Aaron Smith's just a better
Speaker 1: player than he was last year. He's shooting fifty two
Speaker 1: percent on unguarded catch and shoot threes in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: so you can't leave them open. He's shooting forty six
Speaker 1: percent on guarded catch and shoot jump shots in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: so if you get there in time, it might not
Speaker 1: even matter. And he's shooting fifty four percent on twos
Speaker 1: when he drives closeouts, including seven for twelve on mid
Speaker 1: range jump shots. He's putting the ball on the floor
Speaker 1: against the closeout, snatch back, dribble pull up in the
Speaker 1: mid range, spin over his right shoulder pull up in
Speaker 1: the mid range. Like he's got some really high level
Speaker 1: shot making that he's bringing to the table. At this point.
Speaker 1: He's averaging fifteen points per game in the playoffs. He
Speaker 1: had a twenty three point game against the Cavs there's
Speaker 1: real volume scoring there. He's also the best offensive rebounder
Speaker 1: on the team. He gets one point six offensive rebounds
Speaker 1: in this postseason per game. That's more than Miles Turner,
Speaker 1: more than anybody else on the team. He relentlessly slashes
Speaker 1: and crashes and all that kind of stuff because he's
Speaker 1: a ball pressure guy who wants to pick up Brunson
Speaker 1: full court anyway, So he's gonna end up around the
Speaker 1: basket anywhere on anyway trying to deny him, catches trying
Speaker 1: to pick him up. So all that crashing and slashing
Speaker 1: just kind of fits into what his role is on
Speaker 1: the defensive end anyway. So I think between the volume
Speaker 1: scoring and the offensive rebounding and all that athletic force,
Speaker 1: it makes sense to have Josh Hart be the guy
Speaker 1: who's taken those hits. Especially with Brunson having to pick
Speaker 1: up a lot of like we just talked about a
Speaker 1: lot of that full court pressure, you don't want to
Speaker 1: have him also take wear and tear trying to deal
Speaker 1: with Aaron E. Smith just being a pain in the
Speaker 1: ass athlete. If you don't believe that's an issue, as
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell, who just had to do in the last
Speaker 1: round and at one point got slammed into the ground
Speaker 1: off of a dunk on an offensive rebound when he
Speaker 1: tried to match up with Aeron Smith crashing down the
Speaker 1: lane on a free throw. Oj Annobi on Pascal Siaka,
Speaker 1: Siakam attacked Og one on one and attempted a shot
Speaker 1: just twice this season, a couple of pretty tough contested
Speaker 1: pull up that he made and then a more open
Speaker 1: up off of a move where he got good separation.
Speaker 1: So he's two for two. But again, I don't think
Speaker 1: we'll see a ton of that outside of late clock situations,
Speaker 1: and the Pacers are not using Siakam a ton on
Speaker 1: the ball in these playoffs regardless. He's logged seventy five
Speaker 1: shot attempts in spot up situations in transition and slipping
Speaker 1: out of ball screens, but only forty four shot attempts
Speaker 1: in post ups ISOs in ball screens as the handler,
Speaker 1: So like it's not as exaggerated as it is with
Speaker 1: Og on offense, because Og similarly has been way more
Speaker 1: aggressive off ball than he's been on ball. But even
Speaker 1: with Siakam was a better on ball player, He's doing
Speaker 1: most of his work, like two thirds of his work
Speaker 1: off the ball. The transition sequences and spot ups are
Speaker 1: self explanatory. He's knocking down catch and shoot threes, driving
Speaker 1: clothes outs, just pushing the ball in transition with his athleticism.
Speaker 1: But the stuff like popping out of pick and roll
Speaker 1: or posts up in ISO situations, that stuff is interesting.
Speaker 1: Siakam got a lot of pick and pop looks in
Speaker 1: the first two rounds in large part because the bucks
Speaker 1: and calves re guarding him with bigs. There was some switching,
Speaker 1: but there were a lot of sequences where he was
Speaker 1: open on pick and pops. This series, if Mikale Bridges
Speaker 1: is on Tyree s Halliburton and Ojn Andobi's on Siakam,
Speaker 1: they're switching that ball screen. So he's not going to
Speaker 1: get as many picking pop threes as he did in
Speaker 1: that second round series. He might still get some in
Speaker 1: some specific screening actions. I just don't expect it to
Speaker 1: be as big of a factor as it was in
Speaker 1: earlier rounds. So it will come down to Siakam attacking
Speaker 1: one on one in ISO and post up situations, most
Speaker 1: likely not against Brunson, because again, as we look in
Speaker 1: the at any of the previous matchups between these teams,
Speaker 1: they just had you to recover with him and try
Speaker 1: to keep him off Siakam at all costs. But throughout
Speaker 1: this season and last year in the second round, the
Speaker 1: favorite matchup for Siakam against the Knicks has been Josh Hart.
Speaker 1: If you guys remember this. Last year in the postseason,
Speaker 1: Siakam just horched him over and over and over again,
Speaker 1: especially after ogn Andobi went down towards the tail end
Speaker 1: of the series. They were just straight up double teaming
Speaker 1: those post ups on Josh Hart. It was a problem.
Speaker 1: Even this year in the regular season, the player Siakam
Speaker 1: looked to attack most and switches with oj Andnobe available.
Speaker 1: With McHale Bridges on the team, he wanted to go
Speaker 1: after Josh Hart. That's his favorite matchup there. As for
Speaker 1: Ojan Andobi's job specifically in this matchup with Siakam, outside
Speaker 1: of the few times that will see him guard Siakam
Speaker 1: one on one, it's just helping recover situations, right, A
Speaker 1: lot of situations where he's going to be digging down,
Speaker 1: diving at the basketball, but also getting out to Siakam
Speaker 1: did a great job of that in the Celtics series.
Speaker 1: He's arguably the Knicks best defender. I expect him to
Speaker 1: be great again in this series. Karl Anthony Towns and
Speaker 1: Miles Turner. This matchup is interesting on both ends of
Speaker 1: the floor because when Miles Turner is on offense, he's
Speaker 1: obviously not as good offensively as Cat, but Cat's not
Speaker 1: as good defensively as he is, So it's like I'm
Speaker 1: that into the floor. They're both like lesser versions of themselves.
Speaker 1: But then when the Knicks are on offense, Kat's obviously
Speaker 1: substantially better, but Miles is substantially better, so it's a
Speaker 1: different challenge there. But again, when the Pacers have the ball,
Speaker 1: this is where I have the most concern for the
Speaker 1: Knicks defense in this matchup. Miles Turner is doing a
Speaker 1: ton of damage as an off ball scorer in these playoffs,
Speaker 1: shooting forty five from three on four attempts per game.
Speaker 1: He'll take them spotting up, he'll take them popping, He'll
Speaker 1: roll to the elbows and shoot a little short jump shots.
Speaker 1: He's doing a ton of work there. So Kat's job
Speaker 1: in those help and recover situations will be to whether
Speaker 1: it's in a drop coverage or it's helping off of
Speaker 1: an action somewhere else on the floor to just make
Speaker 1: sure he towes that line between being in there to
Speaker 1: help but also making sure he gets out to contest
Speaker 1: Miles Turner. The Pacers are very good at relentlessly hunting
Speaker 1: those kinds of reads, and so Kat is going to
Speaker 1: be the primary entry point that the Pacers look to attack. Now,
Speaker 1: before we go to the Knicks on offense, I want
Speaker 1: to highlight Tyre's Halliburton for a minute. He's obviously the
Speaker 1: engine that makes this offense go right with his kick ahead, passes,
Speaker 1: the pace he plays within the half court, the relentless
Speaker 1: advantage hunting all that stuff. But there will be, in
Speaker 1: all likelihood a few close games in this series, and
Speaker 1: in those moments, Halliburton's going to be competing with the
Speaker 1: player in Brunson, who has been far and away the
Speaker 1: best clutch player in the NBA. In this postseason. Brunson
Speaker 1: has scored forty three clutch points in these playoffs. No
Speaker 1: other player in the NBA scored more than twenty six. Now,
Speaker 1: to be clear, Halliburton has had a great clutch postseason.
Speaker 1: Two twenty points on fifteen shots, two game winners each
Speaker 1: that ended, one that ended a series, and one that
Speaker 1: stole Game two on the road in Cleveland, and the
Speaker 1: Pacers are actually yet to lose a clutch game in
Speaker 1: this postseason thanks to two last minute seven point comebacks,
Speaker 1: both captured by Halliburton game winners. But the point is
Speaker 1: we're gonna see these slow down showdowns, switch hunting matchup,
Speaker 1: attacking isolation contests between Brunson and Haliburton, and which direction
Speaker 1: those games go could potentially swing the series. It's just
Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on, all right. The key
Speaker 1: for the Knicks defense before we move on defensive communication
Speaker 1: and effort in rotation between the relentless transition pushes that
Speaker 1: Indiana's famous for and accounting for Turner spacing off of
Speaker 1: Kat and Siakam drawing double teams on guys like Josh
Speaker 1: Hart and the Post or whoever else it might be,
Speaker 1: or if it's brunts and hedging and recovering and and
Speaker 1: Nemhard getting clean catches, whatever it is, the Knicks will
Speaker 1: likely spend most of the series in man down situations,
Speaker 1: meaning someone for Indiana will be open and the Knicks
Speaker 1: will have to rotate to that guy. Oj McHale and
Speaker 1: Josh Hart are all fantastic rotators when they are locked in,
Speaker 1: but as many Knicks fans will tell you, they can
Speaker 1: also have bad nights. So that's something to keep an
Speaker 1: eye on. If they have one too many of those
Speaker 1: bad nights, it could cost them the series. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move to New York. On offense, I expect Aaron E.
Speaker 1: Smith to start on Jalen Brunson. We have a pretty
Speaker 1: solid say now of Nemhar doing a good job on Brunson,
Speaker 1: but Brunson just being a bit too strong for nem
Speaker 1: hard and very capable of shooting over the top. So
Speaker 1: and also just based on what happened last in their
Speaker 1: final regular season matchup in February this year, Carlisle started
Speaker 1: with Knie Smith on Brunson, so I think we'll see
Speaker 1: a Nie Smith on there. Brunson has had success against
Speaker 1: Nie Smith, but it just looks harder. He's bigger and stronger,
Speaker 1: can't bump him as easily. It's harder for him to
Speaker 1: shoot over the top. I think that makes the most sense.
Speaker 1: Ball pressure is going to be the key here. The
Speaker 1: Pacers will likely attempt to pick up Jalen Brunson full
Speaker 1: court all series, and Brunson's good at handling pressure, but
Speaker 1: there's a wear and tear factor. It could lead to
Speaker 1: fatigue for Brunson as games progress or as the series progresses,
Speaker 1: So the Knicks could look to mitigate this by having
Speaker 1: someone else bring the ball at the floor right, Have
Speaker 1: Josh Hart bring it up, have Michael Bridges bring it up.
Speaker 1: But the Pacers will pressure that guy too. They ball
Speaker 1: pressure everyone full court. So it's just on the Knicks
Speaker 1: to avoid getting sped up, to avoid losing control of
Speaker 1: the game, and those like defense to transition sequences because
Speaker 1: they turn the ball over take bad shots against ball pressure.
Speaker 1: That is going to be a big swing factor in
Speaker 1: this series. As for Nie Smith and Nemhard, the job
Speaker 1: is just stay attached and make them work. In the
Speaker 1: regular season, in pick and roll, the Pacers used at
Speaker 1: the level coverages with both Turner and Bryan, meaning meeting
Speaker 1: Brunson before he can come around and turn the corner.
Speaker 1: That actually made Brunson more of a scorer, and his
Speaker 1: scoring totals were lower in this matchup. In the regular
Speaker 1: season the average about twenty points per game efficiently, but
Speaker 1: only about twenty points per game. They made him get
Speaker 1: rid of the ball more. But there's two edges to that.
Speaker 1: Sword Kat lit up the Pacers this year in that
Speaker 1: pacer in that coverage. If you're bringing two on the
Speaker 1: ball to attend to Brunson, there are going to be
Speaker 1: advantages beneath on the pop or if they rotate to
Speaker 1: the pop on the weak side, like that's where the
Speaker 1: Knicks did a lot of damage to Indiana this year. Again,
Speaker 1: the job though, dealing with Brunson in those ball screens,
Speaker 1: it's a bracket. So whether it's Miles Turner or it's
Speaker 1: Thomas Bryant, they got to be active up at the
Speaker 1: level of the screen and then Nemhard and Knee Smith
Speaker 1: just have to chase over the top, stay attached right
Speaker 1: in ISO situations. And again we know Brunson will ISO
Speaker 1: those guys straight up dozens of times in this series.
Speaker 1: Slide your feet, take contact in the chest, attack his
Speaker 1: base before he goes up, get a good contest, live
Speaker 1: with the results. Hope he wears down. But to be clear,
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson is just playing at an incredibly high level
Speaker 1: right now and there's only so much you can do.
Speaker 1: Andrew nev Hart will start on Michal Bridges. Mchaal struggled
Speaker 1: in this matchup in the regular season just twelve points
Speaker 1: per game, shot twenty percent from three, but he shot
Speaker 1: poorly in general to start the season, and two of
Speaker 1: those games happened during that stretch. McHale's role on the
Speaker 1: Knicks is interesting. When Brunson's on the floor, he'll run
Speaker 1: some second side action, but he mostly looks to attack
Speaker 1: off the catch and in transition. He has not shot
Speaker 1: the ball very well in this postseason, but he has
Speaker 1: hit some very important threes. When Brunson is off the floor,
Speaker 1: They've been leaning into him as like a ball handler
Speaker 1: and spread pick and roll at the top of the
Speaker 1: key with Mitchell Robinson, and he's been getting some looks
Speaker 1: in the midrange to drop. He shot well there forty
Speaker 1: four percent on fifty two attempts on twos inside of
Speaker 1: seventeen feet in the playoffs. He's won games for the
Speaker 1: Knicks in this playoff run. Hitting those shots for Nemhard
Speaker 1: just about getting contests, rear view contests and pick and roll. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Turner and Briant got to be active with their hands
Speaker 1: up in their drop coverages, but also in general and
Speaker 1: in spot up situations. Nemhard just has to get a
Speaker 1: hand up. There's been a consistent trend this year. This
Speaker 1: actually extends to Og and Josh Hart so to stand by.
Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a minute. But with McHale
Speaker 1: bridges in the regular season and in the playoffs, where
Speaker 1: his shooting has gone down substantially from unguarded to guard it,
Speaker 1: we've seen what happens. He elevates comically high and kicks
Speaker 1: his legs. Every time he gets rushed on a three.
Speaker 1: He just responds by making it like a really tough shot, right,
Speaker 1: And he's hit some of those, but he makes them
Speaker 1: tougher and his percentages go down. So all you gotta
Speaker 1: do if your nem haard is just focus on making
Speaker 1: sure that you get a quality contest in those situations.
Speaker 1: Skim on og Nanobi. As mentioned earlier, ojn Andobi has
Speaker 1: just been a more exaggerated off ball version of what
Speaker 1: Siakam is. There's some on ball stuff. He'll run a
Speaker 1: handful of ball screens, ISOs and post ups. You'll see
Speaker 1: about four of them per game in the postseason. He's
Speaker 1: efficient on him. He gets just over a point per possession,
Speaker 1: but it's super low volume. But Og is super aggressive
Speaker 1: off the ball. He's taking one hundred and eighteen shots
Speaker 1: in this postseason. In transition and spot up situations, he's
Speaker 1: shooting forty eight percent on unguarded catch and shoot jump shots.
Speaker 1: He is the quintessential off ball scoring forward, as we've
Speaker 1: talked about so much this season. So siakam a lot
Speaker 1: of help and recover decity. How well can he account
Speaker 1: for helping in the paint on other actions while also
Speaker 1: making sure that he gets contests in containment on closeouts
Speaker 1: against oj Anoby once again, get the contest in this postseason,
Speaker 1: oj Anobe drops from forty eight percent to twenty four
Speaker 1: percent on catch and shoot jump shots when you just
Speaker 1: can test him per s energy. Tyre's Halliburton on Josh
Speaker 1: Hart in theory, this is the perfect heedge and recover option. Right,
Speaker 1: Josh Hart's not a movement shooter, but there are two
Speaker 1: potential options here. And remember when I say like when
Speaker 1: I say like movement shooting to beat hedging, all that
Speaker 1: means is Halliburn's throwing a hedge. There is a slipping
Speaker 1: Josh Hart who's wide open. Now he's got to shoot,
Speaker 1: slipping out of that screen with the ball coming from
Speaker 1: his side as he's running to his side. It's just
Speaker 1: a difficult type of shots, very different than a pick
Speaker 1: and pop where he can just linger around the top
Speaker 1: of the key while the center is sinking way down
Speaker 1: into the paint. And it's more the pass is coming
Speaker 1: more for the front, and he's got all day to
Speaker 1: look at it. Right, there are two potential problems. Josh
Speaker 1: Hart happens to be shooting extremely well on open threes
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. He's twelve for twenty to be exact,
Speaker 1: that's sixty percent. He has been specifically torching teams by
Speaker 1: popping and pick and roll, and he has torched the
Speaker 1: Pacers this year twenty two points per game, despite shooting
Speaker 1: just seventeen percent from three in those three games. How
Speaker 1: offensive rebounding, he gets two point three offensive rebounds per
Speaker 1: game against the Pacers two point one in the playoffs
Speaker 1: last year. That two point three numbers from the regular
Speaker 1: season this year. Driving closeouts as well, that patent did
Speaker 1: transition push rae'l just get his shoulder into your body
Speaker 1: and finish at the rim. But this matchup is different.
Speaker 1: As we mentioned in popping against Porzingis Haliburton has been
Speaker 1: very good in this playoff runt at hedging and recovering
Speaker 1: hands up where like as he throws the hedge over
Speaker 1: a year, he gets out with his hands up to
Speaker 1: force you to throw the pass over the top of
Speaker 1: his hands. It gives him longer time to recover and
Speaker 1: then he just needs to get a hand up. And similarly,
Speaker 1: Josh Hart has dropped in this postseason from sixty percent
Speaker 1: to thirty one percent on catch and shoot jump shots
Speaker 1: when he's just contested. I'm less worried about the shooting
Speaker 1: with Josh Hart and the Haliburton matchup than just the
Speaker 1: athletic Force. And we talked about this earlier with Aaron Nesmith.
Speaker 1: If he would have ended up being guarded by Brunson,
Speaker 1: he could have done a ton of damage with that
Speaker 1: sort of thing. Josh Hart could do a lot of
Speaker 1: damage to Tyrese Haliburton in this series on the glass,
Speaker 1: attacking downhill, off of closeouts and in transition. So let's
Speaker 1: keep an eye on that. Miles Turner on Kat as
Speaker 1: aforementioned the funner version of this matchup, where Turner's a
Speaker 1: better defender and Kat's a better offensive player. Kat porched
Speaker 1: the Pacers this year thirty points and twelve assists per game,
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent from the field, forty seven percent from
Speaker 1: three to eighty nine percent from the foul line. He
Speaker 1: did a lot of damage as a shooter, picking and
Speaker 1: popping trailing threes in transition just spacing the floor on
Speaker 1: the weak side. But he did also do a lot
Speaker 1: of damage just going one on one at Miles Turner
Speaker 1: and Thomas Bryant. He had one of his best dunks
Speaker 1: this year driving out of the left orner against Thomas Bryant.
Speaker 1: He's able to draw multiple fouls on Miles Turner by
Speaker 1: either beating him cleanly off the dribble or by like
Speaker 1: faking and dislodging him and then getting like stepping through
Speaker 1: to draw some contact. As a group, the Pacers will
Speaker 1: need to be much better. Turner's got to be better
Speaker 1: on an island, and they've got to rotate better to
Speaker 1: make sure that he doesn't get the types of quality
Speaker 1: threes that he was getting in all of the Knicks
Speaker 1: actions during the regular season. In many ways, Cat is
Speaker 1: the key to the series on both ends of the floor.
Speaker 1: He was the guy who killed the Pacers defense all season.
Speaker 1: He was also the guy who will be their breaking
Speaker 1: point when the Pacers are trying to score. He could
Speaker 1: be the thing that drives success and failure on either end,
Speaker 1: so how well he performs will be a big swing
Speaker 1: factor in this series. Keys for the Pacers ball pressure
Speaker 1: to wear and tear the knicks down in hopes of
Speaker 1: having that fatigue benefit them later in the series. Sharp
Speaker 1: close outs again Josh Hart, Ojan and Obi and mckel
Speaker 1: bridges all plummet as shooting when they're contested and then
Speaker 1: rotating to towns to prevent him from getting those clean
Speaker 1: three point shot looks. The benches between these two teams
Speaker 1: are very different. All five Nick starters play over thirty
Speaker 1: five minutes per game in the postseason. McHale and Og
Speaker 1: average over forty minutes per game. There is not a
Speaker 1: single pacer who has averaged over thirty five minutes per
Speaker 1: game in this postseason. They have a lot of weapons. TJ.
Speaker 1: McConnell's one of the best backup guards in basketball. Relentless
Speaker 1: downhill attack, beats people off the dribble cleanly more than
Speaker 1: you'll then you'll see most backup guards in the league,
Speaker 1: with a lot of short range scoring, excellent passing per
Speaker 1: thirty six minutes in this postseason run nineteen point seven
Speaker 1: rebounds in tennisis on fifty five percent true shooting. Ben
Speaker 1: Mathern has actually been their most their highest scoring rate
Speaker 1: player per thirty six minutes, He's scoring twenty three points
Speaker 1: per game on fifty eight percent true shooting. That's higher
Speaker 1: than anyone else on the Pacers right now. It's a
Speaker 1: lot of downhill athleticism, a lot of drawing fouls, getting
Speaker 1: into the pain using his physical tools. Obie toppens a
Speaker 1: great fit in the system as an athletic transition player
Speaker 1: and as a cutter, provides some of that weak side
Speaker 1: scoring forward work that we always talk about. Ben Sheppard
Speaker 1: will get some three and D minutes, Thomas Bryant will
Speaker 1: play center with Miles Turners off. They're super deep for
Speaker 1: the Knicks. The only two guys who really play a
Speaker 1: substantial role for them off the bench Areduce McBride, who's
Speaker 1: not shooting super well inside the arc, but is shooting
Speaker 1: forty percent from three in the playoffs. I think he's
Speaker 1: a good player. And then Mitchell Robinson, who as a
Speaker 1: bench big and as a two guy who will play
Speaker 1: like two big looks alongside Kat just a dominant defender
Speaker 1: and rebounder on both ends of the flour. Obviously, no
Speaker 1: question here that overall depth favors Indiana, in that bench
Speaker 1: scoring favors Indiana. My prediction, as I mentioned earlier, I
Speaker 1: view this series as roughly a coin flip. I think
Speaker 1: the Pacers are slightly better, but I think the Knicks
Speaker 1: have home court advantage and that matters. Although it's worth
Speaker 1: mentioning at least before we move on, the Pacers and
Speaker 1: the Knicks have both been excellent on the road in
Speaker 1: these playoffs. The Knicks are five and one on the
Speaker 1: road and the Pacers are four and one. What actually
Speaker 1: solidified my pick was Game one of the Bucks series
Speaker 1: in Game one of the Cavs series, two games that
Speaker 1: the Pacers took double digit leads in the first quarter.
Speaker 1: The first one you could explain away by just saying
Speaker 1: it's the Bucks. They were a mediocre team whatever, right,
Speaker 1: The Calves are not even without Darius Garland. They're not bad.
Speaker 1: They won sixty four games this year. They just looked
Speaker 1: completely caught off guard by Indiana's offense. Cut to shreds
Speaker 1: to start that game, leaving constant easy openings. The Pacers
Speaker 1: were relentless attacking them. They got punched in the face
Speaker 1: in that way. It reminded me of the Warriors in
Speaker 1: their heyday. They played just such a different style that
Speaker 1: most teams. There's an adjustment period, a period where you
Speaker 1: could drop a game or two before you even really
Speaker 1: find your bearings and kind of figure out how you're
Speaker 1: supposed to guard this team. So I think the Pacers
Speaker 1: a high risk to steal Game one. Would that be
Speaker 1: in the case, I think they'd win Game three and
Speaker 1: four at home and then close the series off in six.
Speaker 1: I think they catch the Knicks off guard, punch him
Speaker 1: in the mouth, and then the Knicks are constantly trying
Speaker 1: to make up ground throughout the series, but then they
Speaker 1: lose home court and then wear and tear plays a
Speaker 1: role towards the tail end of the series because of
Speaker 1: the Pacers depth. I think that's how the Pacers end
Speaker 1: up getting this thing done in six games. But this
Speaker 1: is gonna be incredible, and I absolutely think the Knicks
Speaker 1: can win. Predictions don't mean I think the other team sucks.
Speaker 1: It just means I think it's less likely. As always,
Speaker 1: there's a way for the Knicks to win this series.
Speaker 1: Here's what I think it would look like. It starts
Speaker 1: with McHale Bridges doing a great job on Tyre's Halliburton,
Speaker 1: playing him into some of those passive stretches that we
Speaker 1: talked about from the Cavs series. It extends to mkale
Speaker 1: Og and Josh shooting better on spot up threes than
Speaker 1: Indie's role players, and it ends with close games where
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson out plays Tyre's Haliburton down the stretch and
Speaker 1: swings the series towards New York. It absolutely can happen.
Speaker 1: I just think the Pacers are a slightly better team
Speaker 1: that are slightly more likely to get the job done.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, As always, I appreciate you guys for
Speaker 1: supporting the show. That is all we have for today.
Speaker 1: We will be going with Colin after the game. We
Speaker 1: will have our live show about an hour after I
Speaker 1: finish after the game finishes, so I can finish recording
Speaker 1: with Colin first. Just keep put, Just pay attention to
Speaker 1: my Twitter feed and I'll tweet out the link when
Speaker 1: we actually go live, but play on about That'll be
Speaker 1: around that like four pm hour Pacific standard time when
Speaker 1: we end up going live, and then we'll have our
Speaker 1: usual playback at that point. Again, I appreciate you guys,
Speaker 1: and I will see you next time. What's up guys.
Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
Speaker 1: OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us
Speaker 1: if you guys would take a second and leave a
Speaker 1: rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
Speaker 1: supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
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