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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Freeman, Matt F. The Oracle. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet of up

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Speaker 1: to one thousand dollars when you use the highly original

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Speaker 1: promo code betting Pros with your first deposit. Here with

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Speaker 1: me to talk NFL Week twelve Best Bets is Chris

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Speaker 1: Meeni of FTN. Chris, Happy Black Friday. I guess it's

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Speaker 1: been a while since we talked last how's the season

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Speaker 1: going for you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not too bad for even It's nice to get

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Speaker 2: together and chop it up. It's been a little bit,

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Speaker 2: it's been a minute. I think we're going to break

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Speaker 2: down a game happening this weekend that you and I

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Speaker 2: broke down last year in the playoffs, and so that

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Speaker 2: that's going to be exciting to kind of revisit that matchup.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, season has been okay. You know, it's some

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Speaker 2: highs and some lows. We're on the positive side over

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Speaker 2: at FtM when it comes to size and totals and

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Speaker 2: and hopefully we can.

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Speaker 3: Keep things going here.

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Speaker 2: We're just happy man to chop it up with you

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Speaker 2: and break down week twelve. We got the three Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: games finished up yesterday and no teams on by and

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Speaker 2: lots of action on the board.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's the full the full slate, even though

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Speaker 1: it's bifurcated with Thanksgiving. But yeah, sixteen sixteen games this week,

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Speaker 1: so a full slate of action for week twelve. So

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Speaker 1: Chris one game you sort of tease their Titans bangles.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about that in a little bit.

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Speaker 1: First though, I have to talk about the Seahawks hosting

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Speaker 1: the Raiders. Okay, by the way, speaking of the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: we're giving away a free signed Josh Jacobs Raiders jersey

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Speaker 1: nice courtesy of our friends from Pristine Auction. If you

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Speaker 1: want a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel right now, comment below on the video

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Speaker 1: and we will announce a winner on the channel in

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Speaker 1: a future episode. So turn on your notifications, all right,

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks hosting the Raiders. This number, let me make

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Speaker 1: sure I'm getting the most current number here. I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at the Betting Pros odds page and it's still three

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Speaker 1: and a half across the board, which you know opened

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Speaker 1: at three and a half. There's no Vegas money coming in.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing. It doesn't seem as if there's anyone interested

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Speaker 1: in betting betting the Raiders and dry. I mean this

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Speaker 1: number towards three here, and I think that makes a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense when you just kind of look at

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Speaker 1: the on field matchup and by the way, you know

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Speaker 1: Geno Smith, I mean, the genisants, it feels very real.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's you know, top five and a lot

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Speaker 1: of the numbers that you might look at in terms

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Speaker 1: of quarterback efficiency and at home with the Seahawks five

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Speaker 1: and one against the spread, going back to last year

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Speaker 1: when he made three spot starts for Russell Wilson. But

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Speaker 1: this on field matchup of the Seahawks pass offense against

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Speaker 1: the Raiders pass defense, I mean, that's just it doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem fair. Like I have in my personal Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: unit power rankings, I have Geno Smith as a top

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Speaker 1: eight quarterback. I have the Raiders as my number thirty

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Speaker 1: two secondary, Like they are just so so bad. The

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Speaker 1: matchup of pass offense against pass defense. It could hardly

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Speaker 1: be more skewed. If you look at drop back EPA,

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks are number seven drop back to success rate

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Speaker 1: number three pass d number four. The Raiders are number

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Speaker 1: thirty one or thirty two defensively in all of those metrics.

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Speaker 1: And then given that you have the Seahawks at home

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Speaker 1: off the buy, you know, and they have a true

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Speaker 1: home field advantage with the twelfth man, I see them

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Speaker 1: winning by more than a field goal. So I very

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Speaker 1: much like the Seahawks here in this spot, favored by

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Speaker 1: three and a half. I have this projected four four

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Speaker 1: and a half or five here, you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: have to wait and see what some of the injury

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Speaker 1: information is and you know, make some adjustments there, but

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Speaker 1: I think there should be above four. And I you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking here at the outline. I know that you

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Speaker 1: have an opinion on this game. What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Well, I agree with you right off the hop. I

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Speaker 2: think that Seattle wins this game. One of the most

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Speaker 2: impressive teams really, their winch hoitals.

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Speaker 3: Five and a half, five and a half, their win

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Speaker 3: total unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: It's been one of the best stories I think so

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Speaker 2: far this season in the NFL. And you mentioned Gino there.

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Speaker 2: He leads the NFL completion percentage. He's got a healthy

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Speaker 2: seven point eight yards per pass attempt, which is fantastic.

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Speaker 2: And one thing I'll add to the Raiders a league

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Speaker 2: highs seventy one point five completion percentage allowed to quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that is an alarming number. And you got

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Speaker 2: a guy in Gino who's been playing really good football.

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Speaker 2: You know, I think apart from the game in Germany

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Speaker 2: against the Bucks, you know, he'd say there's a couple

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Speaker 2: throws he would have liked to have back in that game.

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Speaker 2: But you got weapons here in DK and Tyler Lockett

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Speaker 2: in you know, obviously Ken Walker would.

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Speaker 3: He's been able to provide to that offense as well.

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Speaker 2: And it's a defense that's kind of picked it up recently,

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Speaker 2: Like they started off the season where it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna give up a lot of big explosive plays.

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Speaker 2: But Pete Carroll's got them playing pretty good defense. I

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Speaker 2: like the over though in this game. I think that

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Speaker 2: Seattle is probably good enough to get thirty points offensively themselves.

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Speaker 2: I mean I mentioned Gino and how great he has been,

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Speaker 2: and you know, accuracy wise in the seven point eight

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Speaker 2: yards per attempt is seventh overall for a team, and

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Speaker 2: going up against a team that can't stop anybody, you know,

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Speaker 2: through the year and second down, third down, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 3: This team cannot get a stop.

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Speaker 2: There's multiple games season the Raiders when they were up

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Speaker 2: in the second half of games and just couldn't stop,

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Speaker 2: and knowing that the team was going to pass.

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Speaker 3: Against them, they still had no answer for that.

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Speaker 2: I don't believe Josh mccanials is a good head coach

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Speaker 2: Pete carroll is. That's why I definitely lean with Seattle here.

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Speaker 2: But you know, overall, both teams can score. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you have Seattle at twenty five point seven points per game.

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Speaker 2: It's the fifth highest mark in the NFL. And I

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Speaker 2: know the Raiders recently haven't been that great. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: give a lot of love to Denver's defense, but they

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Speaker 2: have fifty five points and two games against the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: You can't take out a game that's happened. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: be a little weird here and say that if you

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Speaker 2: take out the zero against the Saints earlier in the season,

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Speaker 2: when a lot of players were hurt in that game

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Speaker 2: and six it was an early game, like.

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Speaker 1: A flu running through the team.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, the whole team. They put up a zero.

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Speaker 3: If you do take away that game.

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Speaker 2: They're averaging twenty five point five points per game, which

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Speaker 2: is tied for Seattle. So they have done some good

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Speaker 2: things offensively. It's just defensively they haven't been great. Adam's

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Speaker 2: got three straight games of the one hundred yards six

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Speaker 2: one hundred games this season. He's gonna go up against

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Speaker 2: rookie Tarik Wuillan, who has been really good for Seattle.

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Speaker 2: But that's a that's a mismatch. I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: DeVante Adam's got forty four targets in the last three games.

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Speaker 2: He's just getting a lot of the looks from car

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Speaker 2: And it's not like, oh, we Renfro's not playing, a

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Speaker 2: Waller's not. But these guys haven't really been playing all year.

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Speaker 2: They haven't really been contributing to this Raiders team. So

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Speaker 2: I think Seattle gets to the thirty point mark. And

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Speaker 2: I do believe that the Raiders probably are good for

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns. You get two good running backs here. Both

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Speaker 2: teams are, you know, in the bottom fifteen in terms

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Speaker 2: of allowing rushing riage and RUSHDVOA defense according to Football Outsiders,

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Speaker 2: the overs forty seven and a half. I think it

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Speaker 2: gets there, and a large part due to Gino Smith

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Speaker 2: and company. So I think we'll see a lot of scoring,

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Speaker 2: but I don't think you'll have to really sweat it out.

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Speaker 2: You know, you might get a couple of late touchdowns

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Speaker 2: from the Raiders, but that's it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I have this projected at forty

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Speaker 1: eight point six. I feel a little bit. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to be overly leveraged on this game, so I

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Speaker 1: haven't bet the side and the total, and so I

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Speaker 1: feel just a little bit better about the Seahawks that

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Speaker 1: I do about the total here. But you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: with you. My my numbers are pointing in this direction.

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Speaker 1: Uh and uh man that that Josh McDaniel's experiment. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's is he probably going to go it's probably going

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Speaker 1: to go past past this year because you know of

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Speaker 1: financial issues. But right man, oh man, Uh, it's not deserved.

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Speaker 1: It definitely should be one and done, you know. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And you're hearing a lot of players kind of call

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Speaker 2: him out to right for even after the game. I

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Speaker 2: know DeVante Adams is a star there, but he's like,

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Speaker 2: I don't understand the second half of game plans. He

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Speaker 2: said that a couple of times this season. Doesn't understand

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Speaker 2: you know why the game plan changed, and I spent

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Speaker 2: I mentioned it earlier a couple of games, you know,

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Speaker 2: the they were up big on Arizona and then the

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Speaker 2: second half they hardly scored any points. There's another game

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Speaker 2: too they carried it. I think it was against the Jags.

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Speaker 2: They carried a lead into the second half of the

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Speaker 2: game and then for whatever reason, you know, these players

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Speaker 2: are are saying the game plan has changed. And you know,

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Speaker 2: again like you said, and I said here defensively, there's

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Speaker 2: not a good football team. So maybe he sticks around.

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Speaker 2: But I think he's a better play caller than a

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Speaker 2: head coach, and I know he's got a complex offense,

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Speaker 2: and maybe he takes another year, you know, for everybody

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Speaker 2: to get together.

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Speaker 3: But who knows.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Derek Carr is not a part of the squad

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Speaker 2: next year either, So maybe a lot of changes in

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Speaker 2: Las Vegas.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, there's there is the idea that and

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Speaker 1: you've seen this with Shanahan before when he was you know,

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Speaker 1: with the Falcons. Matt Ryan wasn't that great in year

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Speaker 1: one with the Shanahan scheme. He was the MVP in

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Speaker 1: year two and so like, yeah, there's the possibility that

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Speaker 1: it does take people some time to learn the system

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Speaker 1: and for it to become something that's a little more

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Speaker 1: second nature instead of like having to think about it.

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Speaker 1: But as you mentioned, Derek Carr might not be there

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Speaker 1: and and so like that would defeat the purpose almost

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Speaker 1: of keeping Josh McDaniels. You need offensive continuity if the

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Speaker 1: team's going to improve. So I'm with you there, all right.

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Speaker 1: Another game that we're looking at here, Cleveland hosting the

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At most books, this number is three

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Speaker 1: and a half. It is three at bet MGM minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen, So you got some value there. And obviously

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Speaker 1: you can use the highly original bet Betting Pros promo

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Speaker 1: code with your first deposit up to one thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: for a risk free bet. What's how are you looking

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Speaker 1: at here?

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Speaker 2: So I know you're going to give it a little

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Speaker 2: bit of love on the show to have bet MGM.

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Speaker 2: So I was like, you know, let's take the three.

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Speaker 2: Shout out bet MGM. But I'm still comfortable with the

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Speaker 2: three and a half. You know, if you can't get it,

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Speaker 2: maybe you're watching a little bit later on. I think

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Speaker 2: the buy came at a pretty good time for the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: They finished you know, we were just talking about Seattle

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Speaker 2: and I thought they looked really good in that game

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Speaker 2: against the Seahawks, not just Tom Brady. I thought for

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Speaker 2: the first time all year, they were able to have

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Speaker 2: some success running the football or Shad White, you know,

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Speaker 2: top one hundred yards on the ground, he looked good.

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Speaker 2: I'm still waiting on news on Leonard Fournette. I don't

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Speaker 2: think he is going to suit up this week, and

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Speaker 2: if he does, and it'll be a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a one to two punch. But when I was talking

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Speaker 2: about the buy coming out a good time, I mean,

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Speaker 2: Chris Godwin just scored his first touchdown of the season

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Speaker 2: last year or last week or I guess in Germany

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Speaker 2: for that game against this Eahawks. So another week off

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Speaker 2: to you know, kind of get his body right and

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Speaker 2: maybe for Rashad White, is the rookie running back to

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Speaker 2: learn the playbook a little bit more and take control

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Speaker 2: of this backfield because they've got nothing really from Leonard

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Speaker 2: Fournette this season. It was really nice to see White

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Speaker 2: get going. We've seen this over the past couple of

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Speaker 2: years with a lot of rookie running backs. Towards the

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Speaker 2: end of the season, cam Akers two years ago kind

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Speaker 2: of took off towards the end. Javonte Williams last year

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Speaker 2: took off towards the end. And this is a team

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Speaker 2: that you can run on. Cleveland thirty first in DVA

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Speaker 2: defense according to Football Outsider, is twenty seventh against the

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Speaker 2: pass and dead last against the run. They're allowing twenty

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Speaker 2: six point nine points per game. It's number two in

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Speaker 2: the NFL, behind the Detroit Lions. Their rush defense have

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Speaker 2: They've allowed an average of one hundred and forty point

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Speaker 2: five rushing yards allowed over their last four games. And

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Speaker 2: I know of this Bucks offense hasn't been spectacular, just

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Speaker 2: talking about their best game of the season really on

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Speaker 2: the ground, but their defense has been legit. Eighteen points allowed,

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Speaker 2: it's the fourth best mark in the league, eighth overall

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Speaker 2: in DVA, sixth against the pass, eleventh against the run.

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Speaker 2: And Tom Brady's seven to one for his career against Cleveland,

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Speaker 2: even if you don't buy it too that he's fifteen

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Speaker 2: and five after a bye week. So I feel like

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Speaker 2: the Bucks are are really gonna hit their stride at

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Speaker 2: the right time. They've been a very mediocre football team.

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Speaker 2: I haven't been super impressed with them There's been a

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Speaker 2: lot of injuries on the offensive line, a lot of

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Speaker 2: injuries on their secondary. But if you're giving me, you know,

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Speaker 2: a three or three and a half for Tom Brady

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Speaker 2: after a buye with so much on the line for

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Speaker 2: this Bucks squad, I'm gonna take Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm with you. I certainly bet this at three.

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Speaker 1: And I do like it there more than I like

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Speaker 1: it at three and a half. You know the hook,

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Speaker 1: it's I have it projected at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: But I will say, you know, I think there's you know, Chris,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you make if you make actual

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Speaker 1: projections or if you you know, create spreads or you know,

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Speaker 1: how it is that you go about doing it. You know,

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Speaker 1: Like when I'm doing this, I kind of at this

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Speaker 1: point season, I sort of know some of the limitations

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Speaker 1: of my system, and like I know that I'm probably

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Speaker 1: not taking into account enough the fact that this team

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Speaker 1: is probably improving, you know, like and that Cleveland is

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Speaker 1: probably getting worse as the season is progressing. Like this

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Speaker 1: is the last game that they have with Jacoby Brissett

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Speaker 1: before Deshaun Watson comes back, so you know, like they

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Speaker 1: will be having a changing of the guard there, but

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Speaker 1: they're not going to make the playoffs. They're just kind

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Speaker 1: of treading water till the next guy gets in. And

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Speaker 1: like it, it seems like the mental state of that

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be good. But the idea of Brady in this

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Speaker 1: team struggling but still being number one within their own

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Speaker 1: division and you know, having that clear path to the

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Speaker 1: playoffs coming off of the buy, so like you know,

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Speaker 1: they're going to be examining what it is that they've

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Speaker 1: done well and haven't done well to this point. So

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Speaker 1: even though I have this projected at three and a half,

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Speaker 1: I think that there's there's room to the upside that

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Speaker 1: favors the Buccaneers here. So I'm I'm with you, especially

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Speaker 1: if you can get it at three. I think there's

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Speaker 1: there's value there. And even at three and a half,

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Speaker 1: if I had to take a side, it would not

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Speaker 1: be the Browns. I know that for sure.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean again, I just watching that

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Speaker 2: game in Germany. I don't know to buy too much

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Speaker 2: of the narratives and stuff, but it looked like the

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Speaker 2: old Tom like he just was fired up. He called

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Speaker 2: out basically everybody on his squad. You like a lack

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Speaker 2: of urgency and effort, and you know, after that game,

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Speaker 2: you know, he was.

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Speaker 3: Just he was tapping everybody.

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Speaker 2: I know, he's had some moments where he's tossed a

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Speaker 2: bunch and he's again another year where he takes the

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Speaker 2: clipboard and he tosses it. All. That's the Tom moments.

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Speaker 2: And he's got some off field stuff going on too.

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Speaker 2: But I just felt like watching that game, look like

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Speaker 2: really close to the Bucks team that won the Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl a couple of years ago, just kind of everybody,

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Speaker 2: you know, on the same page. The effort was there,

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Speaker 2: and it mostly Freeman. It was because they were able

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Speaker 2: to run the ball. It was to give them a

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Speaker 2: little bit more of a balance attack offensively, and like

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Speaker 2: we said earlier, I mean Cleveland just has not been

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Speaker 2: able to stop anybody on the ground.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and on the defensive side, I mean they had

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Speaker 1: been injured significantly up to that point. But you know,

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Speaker 1: getting back Carlton Davis, getting back to Antoine Winfield, and

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Speaker 1: then getting a Key Nicks back in the middle of

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Speaker 1: that defensive line. You know, without him, they were not

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Speaker 1: that good against the run. They get him back, and

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Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, they look like the old

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Speaker 1: Bucks defense that can shut down the run, and then

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Speaker 1: that obviously helps them and coverage because they don't have

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Speaker 1: to be you know, they don't have to have eight

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Speaker 1: men in the box to try to stop their run.

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Speaker 1: So right, exactly, Yeah, that that defense is starting to

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Speaker 1: come on too. So it looks like everything at the

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Speaker 1: right time of the season is starting to line up

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Speaker 1: for the Buccaneers. And I would just say, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of like anecdotally, I think you see that in

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Speaker 1: different power ratings, like respected power ratings, where they have

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Speaker 1: been slower than I think most people would expect to

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Speaker 1: move off of the Buccaneers, you know, and in most

333
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Speaker 1: respective power ratings, the Buccaneers are still a top ten

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Speaker 1: team in the league. And you know, I think pretty

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Speaker 1: cleanly the Browns at this point are not anywhere close

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Speaker 1: to that. Like they are a bottom ten team in

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Speaker 1: the league right now, and even at home, I don't

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Speaker 1: think the Browns should be getting getting the respective of

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Speaker 1: you know, a three point differential. There so very much

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Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers with you, all right, a game that

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Speaker 1: is you know, looking back to last year Titans against

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Speaker 1: the Bengals, and you and I are both on the

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Speaker 1: same side of this, and I can't believe. I cannot

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Speaker 1: believe that this number has actually gotten to three at

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Speaker 1: some sports books. But you know, looking here at the

346
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Speaker 1: betting Pros Odds page, and you have the Titans hosting

347
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Speaker 1: the Bengals, and this number is three at Points Bet.

348
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Speaker 1: Let me see if it's three anywhere else. It was

349
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Speaker 1: three at Caesars earlier. It's dropped back down to to

350
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Speaker 1: so two and a half at most books, But you know,

351
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Speaker 1: a three out there at Points Bet favoring Cincinnati. And

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Speaker 1: on the one hand, like I kind of get it.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati is I mean, they're they're coming on. Their offense

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Speaker 1: has looked really good without Jamar Chase for the past month.

355
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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: And you know, there's the possibility that Chase does play

357
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Speaker 1: in this game, and if he does, then I understand

358
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Speaker 1: the move to three. And if he's there, maybe this

359
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Speaker 1: number gets passed three, which would make me at that

360
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Speaker 1: point maybe even hungrier to be betting on the Titans.

361
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Speaker 1: But I'm on the Titans in this spot, and you know,

362
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Speaker 1: there is something that feels a little bit dirty about it,

363
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Speaker 1: because I think, like when you look at some of

364
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Speaker 1: the the basic numbers, the bigger picture numbers, the Titans

365
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 1: don't look great. There's nothing that you can really point

366
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Speaker 1: to to say like, oh, they do this one thing

367
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Speaker 1: particular thing that matters well. Like defensively, they are really

368
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Speaker 1: good against the run, but come on, like that doesn't

369
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,560
Speaker 1: really matter all that much, like if your secondary is

370
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,440
Speaker 1: getting torn up, you know, so like I don't care

371
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Speaker 1: all that much if a team is strong against the run.

372
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Speaker 1: There's there's not like any one thing that you can

373
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Speaker 1: point to to say, oh, the Titans do this really well,

374
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Speaker 1: and this is why they're able to beat or compete

375
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Speaker 1: with all of these good teams. But at the end,

376
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Speaker 1: like they are always there against you know, against the Chiefs,

377
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Speaker 1: against whoever. They are always there competing. And I mean

378
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel as an underdog, like that is the that

379
00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 1: is the guy you want to back. That is the

380
00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 1: spot in which you want to be on Vrabel twenty

381
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Speaker 1: two to twelve against the spread as an underdog, nine

382
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Speaker 1: to four against the spread as a home underdog. And uh,

383
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Speaker 1: you know, I'm just I'm looking at these numbers and

384
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Speaker 1: I think that the Titans have the peripheral edge. So

385
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 1: I have the Bengals rated two points higher, uh than

386
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 1: the Titans. Here before adjusting for Week twelve injuries. But

387
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Speaker 1: the Titans have a few factors in their favor. So

388
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Speaker 1: they have three extra days of rest after playing last

389
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,679
Speaker 1: week on Thursday Night football, and vrabel is nine to

390
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,719
Speaker 1: oh against the spread with at least ten days of

391
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 1: rest between games, Like that's that's kind of unreal. So

392
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,919
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, the Monday night, you know, like County

393
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Speaker 1: Thursday Night to Sunday, or you know, when he has

394
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Speaker 1: the full on by nine and oh against the spread

395
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Speaker 1: with extra rest. And additionally, you know I said strongest underdogs.

396
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 1: We know that. And then finally, the Titans have an

397
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Speaker 1: unreal home field advantage over the past year, like if

398
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 1: you look at NFL elo an advantage of seven points,

399
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 1: like now, that is something that has to regress. But

400
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,800
Speaker 1: at the same time, like I'm not going to assign

401
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 1: them like a minimal home field advantage, Like there is

402
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,639
Speaker 1: a real home field advantage here that the Titans have,

403
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 1: Like Nissan san it was just not an easy place

404
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 1: for visitors to play since the stretch run for the

405
00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 1: Titans last year, So I don't think that should be ignored.

406
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Speaker 1: So you put all that together, and I have this

407
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 1: game as like pretty close to a pick them. I

408
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 1: think it's a pretty even match up here. So if

409
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Speaker 1: you let me take the Titans at home as two

410
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 1: and a half three point underdogs, I will be doing it.

411
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 1: And my one fear is that I'm getting in on

412
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Speaker 1: this bet too early, you know, Like I bet it

413
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Speaker 1: at two and a half when that first two and

414
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 1: a half popped up out there, because I was like, oh, fantastic,

415
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 1: this rogue two and a half. There's no way this

416
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 1: is getting to three. It's gotten to three at a book.

417
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe the market continues to move in

418
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Speaker 1: that direction, And I'm gonna hate myself that I wasn't

419
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 1: patient and I didn't get it when it got to

420
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Speaker 1: three or three and a half like that's a possibility.

421
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Speaker 1: But I am very much on the Titans on this

422
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 1: and and Meani, I think you like the money line here.

423
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 1: I do. Yeah.

424
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Speaker 2: I gave it on Mean Streets at plus one thirty.

425
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 2: I'm kind of with you. I think I said the

426
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Speaker 2: exact same thing you did on Mean Streets this morning, was.

427
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Speaker 3: That this could change.

428
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Speaker 2: You could maybe get plus one thirty five plus one

429
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:00,440
Speaker 2: forty plus one thirty seven, or or you can get

430
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Speaker 2: three and a half. I see Bette Rivers is hanging

431
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 2: a plus three UNI bet plus three as well. I mean,

432
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 2: I don't have too much more to add than than

433
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,200
Speaker 2: what you said. I mean, this Titans team is I

434
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 2: think it's very Bowman. This guy is a really good coach.

435
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: He gets his team playing defensively. They are strong you

436
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,479
Speaker 2: mentioned against the run, even against the past. I mean

437
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 2: there's six against the past. They've kind of held Mahomes

438
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 2: in check a couple times over the past couple of seasons.

439
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,120
Speaker 2: They've beaten the Bills, you know, over the past couple

440
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 2: of seasons as well. This is a really good sound

441
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 2: defensive squad. And Ryan Tannels coming off his best game

442
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 2: of the season, you know at Lambeau three undred thirty

443
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,719
Speaker 2: three yards, two touchdowns, Treylon Burks, you know, being in

444
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 2: the lineup that's helped this team offensively if they need

445
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 2: to throw the football. When these two teams played last year,

446
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 2: this is what I was referencing. You and I broke

447
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,399
Speaker 2: this down and we I believe we both like the

448
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 2: Titans at the time. We certainly liked the defense to

449
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 2: get pressure on Joe Burrow, who's sacked nine times in

450
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 2: that game. They pressure they did, Oh yeah, they got

451
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 2: pressure nine sacks thirty two times. Burrow has been sacked

452
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,479
Speaker 2: this season, and that was number two in the NFL

453
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,640
Speaker 2: heading into this week. Your Cowboys and Parsons got after

454
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones. So Jones has I think been sacked one

455
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 2: more time than Joe Burrow this year. The offensive line

456
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 2: was supposed to be improved in Cincinnati this year. I

457
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 2: know there's been some injuries, but it doesn't look all

458
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 2: that better. No Joe Mixon, even if Chase does play,

459
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,119
Speaker 2: I mean he could be limited in this game potentially,

460
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 2: And in that game Friedman, Derrick Henry wasn't healthy. You

461
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 2: got to fully healthy Derrick Henry in this contest. So yeah,

462
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 2: I like the Titans. I like them to win this game. Obviously,

463
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 2: the safer pick would be the take the three if

464
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: you can, or if you want to risk it and

465
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 2: wait it out. But I really like what I've seen

466
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 2: from this Tennessee squad, and every time I seem to

467
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 2: doubt them personally, with a large spread against the Chiefs

468
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 2: and holding Mahomes to like basically to nothing until that

469
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 2: fourth quarter. I think he threw the ball like sixty

470
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 2: two to sixty three times in that game to get

471
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 2: them back into that contest. So, yeah, this is a

472
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 2: is a pretty strong team, and they're a really strong

473
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 2: team at home.

474
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: As you mentioned, Yeah, I mean Rabel a couple of things.

475
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 1: Rabel is who has openly said that he would endure

476
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: castration if it meant winning a Super Bowl as a

477
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,479
Speaker 1: head coach. I love that. That's commitment. That's our cour

478
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 1: you know. Yeah, that's that's always for Elon Musk would

479
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: hire that guy to to work at Twitter. Uh, that's

480
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: the kind of hardcore that that he wants.

481
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 2: Uh.

482
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: So that's one of it. That's just like the type

483
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: of the type of commitment Rabel has. And then the

484
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 1: second thing here, you know, I I do build into

485
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: my projections, uh some sort of injury uh, injury prognostications

486
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 1: based on guys who missed the previous game here and

487
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 1: so up to this point, the Titans have been really

488
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: injured this year, especially like last week on Thursday Night Football.

489
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: You know, they were missing uh I believe Bud Dupree,

490
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 1: they were missing DeMarco Autry missing. Uh I think like

491
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 1: three starting uh guys in their secondary Uh. But I'm

492
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: you know, looking now at the injury reports, UH, A

493
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: lot of those guys are coming back, you know, so

494
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 1: especially like uh, you know Ben Jones who was out

495
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: with a concussion, He's practiced unlimited uh limited usage here.

496
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance that he comes back. Yeah.

497
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: Bud Dupree practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday, so like he

498
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,959
Speaker 1: So they are they are getting healthy and so like,

499
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,159
Speaker 1: I just know that I'm going to end up changing

500
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: my projections and that will benefit the Titans even more here.

501
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: So uh, that is that is something to pay attention

502
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 1: to the injury reports here which looked very positive. And

503
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: then on the flip side for the Bengals, Joe Mixon

504
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: almost certainly out hasn't practiced at all this week with

505
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 1: a concussion. H and Jamar Chase might return, but you know,

506
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 1: far from certain. So yeah, I think the injuries, I

507
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: think that is something that is skewing in the direction

508
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: of the Titans here. So yeah, man, all right, another

509
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 1: game here, This one is disgusting. Broncos at the Panthers.

510
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: This These are like two teams that I don't really

511
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 1: even want to think about at this point. But I

512
00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: gotta say the under here, which I think it point

513
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 1: reached like thirty five, maybe even like thirty four and

514
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: a half. But the under here it's I mean, it

515
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: is hilariously low. I believe it is currently thirty six.

516
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 1: But what what are you looking at here with this game?

517
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 3: What's first?

518
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 2: I want to ask you, what's the lowest total you've

519
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 2: ever taken an under? Because I don't know if I've

520
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: gone much lower than a thirty six.

521
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: I'm I mean, I don't believe I've seen in the

522
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 1: NFL this total lower than than thirty six, you know,

523
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 1: other than this total when it was like at yeah,

524
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 1: at thirty five. I mean, I'll say the lowest total

525
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 1: I took was this at thirty seven in the look

526
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: Ahead market. Because this game is disgusting and like you

527
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 1: just look at these two teams and the question is

528
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: like who's going to score? Like who you know, who

529
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: is actually going to score points? And I mean, I'm

530
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 1: sure that's like the question that you ask yourself when

531
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: you're looking at this, like which is these teams is

532
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: actually gonna put up points? You like that you talk

533
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: to me, I do? I do?

534
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? And I got on the thirty seven as well,

535
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 2: and I honestly I fell a little gross. I was like,

536
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 2: what I come in here as a third pick that

537
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 2: I really like, I don't want to come in with

538
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 2: Miami to win by two scores against the Texans, even

539
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 2: though I do believe it's going to happen. And then

540
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 2: I'm like, thirty six, Man, I come in. This is

541
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: such a low number. But honestly, I feel like it's

542
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 2: a twelve nine game. I just don't feel like any

543
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: team is going to score. There's the threat here, of

544
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,239
Speaker 2: of course, a defensive score. Let's give a little bit

545
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 2: of love to the Broncos defensive leaving seventeen point one

546
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: points allowed per game. It's the second best mark in

547
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 2: the league. One hundred and eighty six passing yards allowed

548
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 2: per game, it's the third fewest in the NFL, A

549
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 2: sixty one point six completion percentage against it's a top

550
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 2: eight mark, and five point two yards per pass attempt.

551
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: It's the second best market in the league. I'm sure

552
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 2: you've heard it. I'm sure you've talked about it. I've

553
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 2: seen it all over Twitter. If the Broncos have scored

554
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 2: exactly eighteen points in every single game, they'd be eight

555
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 2: and two. If they've scored eighteen points in every game

556
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 2: in regulation, they'd be nine and one. Think about that

557
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 2: for a second nine and one. Like last week, if

558
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 2: they had eighteen in regulation against the Raiders, they would

559
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: have won that game. This is a team offensively that

560
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 2: can't do a damn thing. I'm shocked. Like at this point,

561
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 2: I'm not, But the first few weeks I was like, Wow,

562
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 2: this is this Russ is this hacket.

563
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 3: It's both.

564
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 2: It's it's it's unbelievable. Offensively, it's it's completely the opposite.

565
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 3: Right in this team. Fourteen point seven points per game.

566
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 2: It's dead last, fifty eight point five completion percentage as

567
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 2: a squad. I think there was one game rusted in play.

568
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 2: It's the third worst mark in the NFL. The Tavi

569
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: smuriy is gonna have the backfill to himself.

570
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 3: Great. He's averaging three point three.

571
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: Yards per per carry and the yards after contact is

572
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 2: one of the worst marks in the NFL. Offensively, they

573
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: just can't do anything. Now they're gonna go up against

574
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: a Carolina team offensively can't do anything themselves either. Eighteen

575
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 2: point eight points per game, it's twenty fifth. Six point

576
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: six yards per pass attempt is twenty seven. Sam Darnold's

577
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: gonna make the start here isn't started in a long

578
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 2: long time as a team fifty eight point four completion

579
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 2: ers and is thirty one. I don't know, Maybe I'm

580
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,439
Speaker 2: overthinking it, Maybe it's just too easy. At thirty six points,

581
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 2: is not a lot of points a defensive score gonna

582
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 2: be sweating it out. But both these teams, I feel like,

583
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: are just gonna run. I don't think either team's gonna

584
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: have a success running. And I'm Sam Donald, have no trust,

585
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,719
Speaker 2: no faith in. And on the other side, I'm not

586
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 2: seeing anything that I've liked from Russell Wilson.

587
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 3: So this is gonna be an ugly game.

588
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 2: You may only want to watch it if you get

589
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: involved from like a proper a betting standpoint. But give

590
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,719
Speaker 2: me the under thirty six, and I can't believe it's

591
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 2: the lowest total.

592
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: I think.

593
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: I've absolutely, absolutely I haven't projected for thirty four point four.

594
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 1: You know, I still here there's value here to the under, right,

595
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,239
Speaker 1: And it's like, yeah, I mean the reality is like

596
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: it like this, as you say, like a twelve to

597
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: nine game, It's like that feels totally within the range

598
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 1: of outcomes. Even thirty four point four would be monstrously high.

599
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: But man, this this number is just is so low

600
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 1: and so yeah, you can see how it doesn't take

601
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 1: much if something aberrant happens, like Russell Wilson need a

602
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 1: touchdown drive, you know. Yeah, but you know, I mean this,

603
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: I'm with you totally. The the Broncos are like, if

604
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 1: you had to construct an under team, you could not

605
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 1: construct one any better than the Broncos, who have the

606
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: worst offense in the league and maybe the best defense.

607
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 1: You know, they're nine and one to the under here,

608
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: and it's you know, given how incompetent they are on offense,

609
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: it's kind of amazing that they're not ten to zero

610
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: to the under. You know, like the in the market,

611
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 1: I would say still has not caught up. Uh. And

612
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: by the way, I mean we talked about that Seahawks

613
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: game earlier. How good is Pete Carroll filling about himself

614
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: this year? You know, I mean like he won, he won,

615
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: you know.

616
00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 3: He won.

617
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, dude, that first game, I thought that was like

618
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: the Seahawks super Bowl win, you know, for for Russ

619
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 2: to come in and the way the NFL had that schedule,

620
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 2: and and Russ is coming in and everybody's talking about

621
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: the Broncos is a legitimate Super Bowl contenders and they

622
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: go into Seattle and Seattle wins that game, and of

623
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 2: course everything was made of kicking the long field goal

624
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 2: and you black capital for Russ and then you you

625
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 2: locked him up, you know, extend him significantly without even

626
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 2: seeing a snap from this guy, and now they.

627
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 3: Have to be like, oh my goodness, what did we do.

628
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 2: On the other side, Seattle is fighting for a playoff spot,

629
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: maybe going to make the playoffs.

630
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 3: Gino looks better than Russ.

631
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're getting more from DK and Lockett this

632
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: year than they got from Russ last season, you know,

633
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: with that trio. It's yeah, Pete carol One, he's a

634
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 2: great coach too, and they're gonna have a top five

635
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 2: pick most likely. Yeh man, it's yeah, and it's a

636
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 2: cool it's a cool story in the Seattle side of things.

637
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 1: Yeah. And part of the the Gino story is, you know,

638
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: like he's at this point the front runner for comeback

639
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: of the Year. I think hard of it is because

640
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 1: Russ has looked so bad in Denver that like that

641
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: that like helped boost him a little bit by comparison.

642
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you there, I'm on the the

643
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 1: under here of thirty seven is where I bet it.

644
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: I still think there's value at thirty six, but I

645
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: did grab it at thirty seven and the look Ahead

646
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: market and got to do the plug. I logged it

647
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 1: in the Betting pros app where you can sync up

648
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 1: with sports books, get free betting advice and picks. You

649
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 1: can track different experts, track line movement, track your own bets,

650
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: and you can get sports betting alerts. And we monitor

651
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: all the major sports books so you can see which

652
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:39,239
Speaker 1: book is offering the best line on a bet at

653
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 1: any given moment. So download the app today in the

654
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: Apple or Google Play store. Okay, one more game that

655
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: I'm looking at here and it's it's kind of disgusting,

656
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: but the Falcons at the Commanders and this line, I

657
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: you know, hashtag not sharp. I bet this, I believe

658
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: at three and a half, and it's it's moved against

659
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: me and it's now four and a half. But I

660
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 1: have this projected at two and a half, and like, really,

661
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: I don't see much of the difference between these these

662
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: two teams. Marcus Mariota six and two against the spread

663
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: as an underdog with the Falcons, and you know, they

664
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 1: do find themselves in this spot. You know, many power

665
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: ratings have these two teams as close to even. For example,

666
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: the Football Power Index Commanders one point three points worse

667
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: than an average team on neutral, the Falcons one point

668
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: six minus one point six, the Commanders minus one point

669
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: seven eight, Falcons minus one point nine eight. If you're

670
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: looking at mass E Peabody rankings, so separated by just

671
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 1: two tenths of a point. And then n f E

672
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: Low Power ratings Commanders minus one point eight, Falcons minus

673
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 1: one point nine. You know, like in my personal ratings,

674
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: which take into account you know a number of things,

675
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: but don't factor. Don't factor yet we twelve specific injuries.

676
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,719
Speaker 1: I have the comm at minus two, the Falcons at

677
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: minus three. There's not much separating these two teams, and

678
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,479
Speaker 1: they match up pretty evenly. On offense, the Commanders are

679
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: number twenty seven and DVA on defense, the Falcons are

680
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: number twenty eight. You know, on defense, the Commanders are

681
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: number twelve and DVOA. On offense, the Falcons are also

682
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 1: number twelve. Like there's I mean, there are slight differences

683
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: between these teams, but not enough to say, Okay, when

684
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: you take home field advantage into account, this one team

685
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: should be favored by four and a half, Like, I

686
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: just don't think that is at all the case, and

687
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: the running and the passing games, no large edges present

688
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 1: themselves for either team, and it's not as if the

689
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 1: Commanders have a remarkable home field advantage. So falcons four

690
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: and a half. I will gladly bet them there. I

691
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: think this number should be under three, so I will

692
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 1: I will take it. Mini. I don't know if you

693
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: have any opinion on this game, and if you have

694
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: a different opinion, totally fine. I'd love to hear the

695
00:32:58,720 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: opposite case. Two.

696
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 3: No, I couldn't agree more.

697
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 2: Actually, I mean, I do like the direction of this

698
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 2: Washington team where they're going. Last week, I reference, you know,

699
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 2: plus three fifty or three sixty for them to earn

700
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,719
Speaker 2: a wild card Berth and I thought, you know, if

701
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: he did feel strong about Washington to jump on them. Now,

702
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 2: I expected, you know, your Cowboys to beat the Giants

703
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 2: and then they have two games against each other. I

704
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: think like it's coming up like two games. I think

705
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 2: for the Giants they play Washington and then buy and

706
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 2: then they play Washington or vice versa with Washington. But

707
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 2: they do have like a two games against each other

708
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: over a three week stretch, And as I mentioned, I

709
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 2: do like this direction of where Washington is going with

710
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: Taylor Heinike. You know, he's he's definitely the guy for

711
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 2: them to gives them the best chance to win football games,

712
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 2: and he's targeting his guy and Tara McLaurin, who was

713
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 2: among the leaders in target percent, engineer yards and things

714
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 2: like that since Taylor has been you know, name starter.

715
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: And I like the fact that they're getting Chase Young

716
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 2: and you know, it's a good run defense. But I

717
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 2: agree with a lot of your points, like these two

718
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 2: teams are really mirror images of each other, and I

719
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,040
Speaker 2: don't think that one team should have a three and

720
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: a half no matter where it is. You mentioned the

721
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 2: home field advantage, it's not that significant for Washington, So

722
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: I view this as a field goal game. Is a

723
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 2: lot on the line for both teams. I mean, they're

724
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: both on the bubble here to make the playoffs. This

725
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 2: is a huge I mean, the loser is probably done

726
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 2: and the winners is you know, more life for them

727
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 2: to maybe punch their ticket into the playoffs. But I

728
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: think that this is going to be a low scoring

729
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 2: game and it's not like, hey, Kyle fitz has gone

730
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 2: so the offense won't roll and this guy wasn't really

731
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 2: being used anyway. So we've seen some good things from

732
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 2: Marcus Mariota this year. He's impressed me actually as a quarterback,

733
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 2: and it's part of the reason why Arthur Smith hasn't

734
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: moved on from him.

735
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 3: You know, they drafted Desmond Ritter.

736
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 2: I thought maybe you'd see something from Ridder this season

737
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: that the Falcons would be one of the worst teams

738
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 2: in football, but they have hung around with good teams.

739
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 2: They have a couple of dud losses, but a couple

740
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 2: of big wins too, you know, on their schedules. So yeah, no,

741
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: I agree. I couldn't agree more. For four and a half,

742
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: I think that's fantastic. I think it's a field goal game.

743
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to your point, I was also early in

744
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,919
Speaker 1: the year. I have the Falcons, I believe rated, if

745
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: not my worst team, definitely in the bottom three. I

746
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: had no respect for the Falcons entering the year, and

747
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: I mean they've they've proven me wrong. You know, they're

748
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 1: very much right in the mix there as a like

749
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to make the wild card.

750
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: They probably, but you know, like they're a feisty team,

751
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 1: you know, like they are a team that competes. And

752
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: Marcus Mariota, you know, let's say whatever. You know, fine,

753
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: you don't have a lot of respect for him, totally fine.

754
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: It's not like he's a great player, but he's better

755
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: than Taylor Heineke. You know, like Mariota is number fifteen

756
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,959
Speaker 1: in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation. He's number

757
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 1: eleven this year in adjusted yards per attempt, number eleven

758
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: in QBR. You compare that to Heinike, who like is

759
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: a spicy backup quarterback. Ye, but I mean he's number

760
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 1: twenty three in composite EPAY and completion percentage, number twenty

761
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: three in adjusted yards per attempt, not really even on

762
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 1: the board in QBR because he hasn't played enough snaps

763
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: to get there. You know, like he's a a competent feeling,

764
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 1: but he's not someone who like is actually going to

765
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: be a long term starter in the league.

766
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: Like, no, you just me you you only like him

767
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 2: because you only view him as a good quarterback because

768
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 2: Carson Wentz has like it's yeah, he's just an a.

769
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 2: He's just a He's just a guy who is better

770
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 2: than Wents and who is filled in is He's been

771
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 2: a backup is his entire year. It's a nice story.

772
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 2: I mean they went into Philadelphia and they they beat

773
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 2: the Eagles. That wasn't really on Heinike. It was you

774
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 2: know there. They ran the ball all over all over Philly.

775
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 2: They had long drives.

776
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 3: It's it. It's not like Heinekee's blown anybody away.

777
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: No, I agree that he's just he's not making the

778
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 1: back breaking mistake. So if you give me the better

779
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: quarterback on two teams that are pretty evenly matched, and

780
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: I get more than a full goal, yeah, I'm gonna

781
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 1: do it, even even if he's on the road. All right,

782
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 1: I think I think that is all the games that

783
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 1: that we have here in the outline. I want to

784
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: make sure that you have the opportunity to tell everyone

785
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: about everything you got going on at FTN and where

786
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: people can find you on social So Chris hit us

787
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 1: with the info.

788
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 3: I appreciate you.

789
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 2: At Chris Meeni on the Twitter machine, running main streets

790
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 2: five days a week. It's like a multi sports show.

791
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 2: Obviously a lot of football, but some NHL and some

792
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 2: NBA sprinkled down. We've been talking World Cup these days,

793
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 2: So just you know, a fantasy and a betting show

794
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 2: and Dangle bet Selly Hockey show for any hockey fans

795
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 2: out there with Eric Young twice a week. We're just

796
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,319
Speaker 2: on Tuesdays and Thursdays, So Mean Streets is at noon

797
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 2: Eastern and Dangle Betsally is at ten a m.

798
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 3: Eastern.

799
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 2: So it's all free over at FTN Network, our YouTube

800
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 2: page and just grinding away like you dude. We're into

801
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 2: week twelve of the NFL seasons.

802
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 3: It's busy time to be a sports fan, but it's awesome.

803
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 3: I love it.

804
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 2: So I appreciate you, know, like I said, chopping it

805
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 2: up with you, It's nice to see an old face

806
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 2: and appreciate you having me on man.

807
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's always great to catch up with you. I

808
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: gotta say, out of all of the the people in

809
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 1: the sports media space, I think you have the best

810
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,720
Speaker 1: combination of breadth and depth in terms of the sports

811
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 1: that you cover. You know, Like I mean the fact

812
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 1: that like it's hard enough I think to get your

813
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 1: mind around the NFL, but you know you've got hockey.

814
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 1: You are I think the best hockey better, if not

815
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: the best, one of the best hockey betters that I know,

816
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: and then I mean baseball, strong in baseball, strong in basketball.

817
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 1: It's just I mean, like you're you're like a five star,

818
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,959
Speaker 1: a five star type of better.

819
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 3: You're kind to me.

820
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 2: You're basically telling me I need a life, is what

821
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 2: you're saying. It's been a challenging week to be honest with,

822
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 2: like the the way the NHL schedules work. They give

823
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: you thirteen games on Monday, fifteen on Wednesday before Thanksgiving

824
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 2: in the three football games.

825
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 3: But I'm having fun with it. I do appreciate the

826
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 3: kind words.

827
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: I grew up, you know, I think I could skate

828
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 2: before I could walk, so I've been following that sport

829
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 2: pretty closely, so that kind of just comes to me.

830
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 2: But yeah, sometimes it is a lot to take him.

831
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,240
Speaker 2: But I'm having fun with then. I appreciate the words Freeman.

832
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: All right, awesome stuff. Here is Chris Meeni. I'm Matthew

833
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 1: Friedman at matt f the World. Check out Betting Pros

834
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: and Fantasy Pros for all of my work best bets,

835
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: player props, Fantasy favorites, player projections and rankings, and more.

836
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 1: If you'd like the show, please rate and review on

837
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: your favorite podcast app that's going to do it. For

838
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: the Week twelve Best Bets edition of the Betting Pros podcast,

839
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, good luck, and see you next episode.