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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin with our

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Speaker 2: top story met US outlook dranking futures lower with more

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Speaker 2: big tech earnings on der Chris Harvey of Wails Fargo

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Speaker 2: with the most bullish year end SMP five hundred target

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Speaker 2: on the street. Right in this we expect near term

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Speaker 2: chopping US related to outlooks and rising rates. Our s

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Speaker 2: and P five hundred target is fifty five thirty five,

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Speaker 2: but we're more focused on the return profile. Stay in

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Speaker 2: the game, but you need some portfolio headges. Chris is

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Speaker 2: with us now for more. Chris, good morning, to see you.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, fifty.

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Speaker 2: Five thirty five, up from forty six twenty five.

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Speaker 3: That's a big change. Can we start there? What changed?

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Speaker 1: That is a big change. So we knew we were

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Speaker 1: going to move numbers higher. We just didn't know how

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Speaker 1: much higher because I didn't know. You know, we looked

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Speaker 1: at things last year and.

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Speaker 3: We were up.

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Speaker 1: We were expecting mark be up ten percent, maybe fifteen,

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Speaker 1: and we couldn't figure out. You know, that was pretty

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Speaker 1: good at the time, but we missed the market by

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Speaker 1: ten percent. What we figured out is the market's just

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Speaker 1: being a lot more aggressive on how it's discounting. It's

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Speaker 1: discounting a lot, a lot further into to the future,

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Speaker 1: and it's using a much more.

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Speaker 3: Aggressive forward multiple.

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Speaker 1: And so when we took that into consideration, we realized, hey,

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Speaker 1: we can get to two seventy on twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: We can use a twenty twenty one multiple and that

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Speaker 1: gets us over fifty five hundred and so that's really

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Speaker 1: how we got there. And what we think is going

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Speaker 1: to happen is not the economy is going to be

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Speaker 1: really strong. It's a mix shift. The winners are going

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Speaker 1: to keep winning. The more profitable companies are going to

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Speaker 1: make up a bigger percentage of the S and P

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Speaker 1: five hundred and that's how you're going.

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Speaker 3: To get there. So within this is a big coll

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Speaker 3: bet on megacap.

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Speaker 1: Tech, megacap tech, but really more profitable companies. Most of

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Speaker 1: a lot of the megacap tech are those, but it's

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Speaker 1: not every single megacap tech is a profitable company. But yes,

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Speaker 1: along those lines, is.

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Speaker 4: There anything in the earnings that you've seen or the

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Speaker 4: spending by said companies that makes you concerned?

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Speaker 1: Now, what makes me concerned is we really haven't learned

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Speaker 1: anything new at this point in time. Consumer still value oriented,

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Speaker 1: still selective, high ends doing better than low end. Kind

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Speaker 1: of knew that people like to travel services over goods

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Speaker 1: and things. We knew that as well. Economy is a

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Speaker 1: little bit stronger than expected. Not new news. What we're

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Speaker 1: waiting for and what we're looking for and what we

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Speaker 1: think is this AI spend. It's not a discretionary spend

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Speaker 1: and we'll see that going forward. Maybe that's part of

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Speaker 1: what we saw last night. And what we think is

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Speaker 1: again you're going to have a separation. You've already had

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Speaker 1: that separation between the winners and losers. That separation is

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Speaker 1: just going to get bigger and bigger and bigger.

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Speaker 4: The separation has been in earnings returns, but it's all

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Speaker 4: bit in earnings, just BLUs straight out. We saw Southwest,

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Speaker 4: for example, coming out earlier this morning under performing wider loss.

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Speaker 4: You say people like to travel, there are signs that

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Speaker 4: that's actually being challenged on the margins. We just got

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Speaker 4: results from American Air similar type of disappointment. How much

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Speaker 4: does this make you shift some of the companies that

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Speaker 4: you like? Is this basically a bit that the cash

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Speaker 4: winners and the AI darlangs can keep going, but the

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Speaker 4: broadening out isn't going to happen.

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Speaker 3: Yes, So, Lisa, there's a lot there.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 1: If we look at Delta, Delta is a lot different

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Speaker 1: than Southwest, and Delta had a lot more positive things.

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Speaker 1: It's a high end consumer. It's also more business oriented. Right,

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Speaker 1: what do we like? What's going to change? Well, the

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Speaker 1: bigger question is we see two trades in the marketplace.

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Speaker 1: It's the momentum trade as the rein inflation trade. And

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Speaker 1: I think that momentum trade will continue because again the

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Speaker 1: winners will keep winning. As far as our positioning, what

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Speaker 1: we want to do and what we've been doing for

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Speaker 1: the last year and a half is we want to

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Speaker 1: barbel communications with something more defensive. Now, what we want

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Speaker 1: to do is barbell community with health care or utilities.

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Speaker 1: We want some ballots, We want some protection in that portfolio,

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Speaker 1: but we do want to participate to the upside.

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Speaker 4: If the FED doesn't cut this year or only cuts once,

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Speaker 4: how do you change your target again?

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Speaker 1: Don't change it at all? Really, yeah, because the reason

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Speaker 1: is if you go back to twenty one when the

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Speaker 1: FED was way too aggressive, and then you roll into

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Speaker 1: twenty two, you ran into a bus.

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Speaker 3: Saw why was that?

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Speaker 1: Well you were too accommodative twenty one and then you

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Speaker 1: turned everything on its head in twenty two. Well, you're

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Speaker 1: not going to see that going forward. You're going to

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Speaker 1: see a FED that's going to cut. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be a multi year cut, multi year easing cycle, and

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Speaker 1: that continuity is going to help. What else is backing

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Speaker 1: that up? This secular AI trade is not going anywhere.

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Speaker 1: It's actually broadening out to power to electrification, and then

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Speaker 1: the M and A story keeps getting better and better

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Speaker 1: and better. So whether it's one cut, two cuts, three cuts,

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Speaker 1: we don't care because it's the start of a bigger cycle.

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Speaker 6: I know it's no one's really base case, but what

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Speaker 6: if there was a hike. How would that change your outlook?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be good. And what we tell people

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Speaker 1: is today, if today's the risk of increased US exceptionalism.

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Speaker 3: Well I don't know about that.

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Speaker 1: But what I do tell people is, if today's your

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Speaker 1: first day on the job, you would not be coming

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Speaker 1: to the conclusion the FED needs to cut right. The

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Speaker 1: economies stronger than expected. We're in a ball market with

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Speaker 1: equities credit spuarres or less than ninety basis points. The

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Speaker 1: consumer's fine. And while the FED says things are tight,

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Speaker 1: I see parts where it's tight. But when it's really tight,

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Speaker 1: people don't have to tell you. You feel it, you

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Speaker 1: know it. I'm surprised that the FED is telegraphing easing

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Speaker 1: as much as it has and why they pivoted in

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Speaker 1: December so hard. That's to me is very surprising.

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Speaker 2: My favorite line of yours over the last few years

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Speaker 2: race yourself. I think you might know you might have

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Speaker 2: guessed coming out of the pandemic. I remember in the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty you said it's going to be spring break

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Speaker 2: for adults. Did you expect it to last this long?

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Speaker 3: I did not.

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Speaker 1: I love Yeah, it's toward the word in the cyclew

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Speaker 1: to tell how long a spring break heav out. It

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Speaker 1: is a long spring break that's been bad though good.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to work out what to do with discretionary

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Speaker 2: based on that, and that was ultimately cool coming out

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Speaker 2: of the pandemic. It was spring bright for adults. Discretionary, discretionary, go,

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Speaker 2: go go.

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Speaker 3: What is it now?

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Speaker 1: I think it's more producers over consumers.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 1: The consumer again is they've spent what they needed to spend.

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Speaker 1: They've done their revenge spending. Right, They're being a lot

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Speaker 1: more selective. They're saying, I'm not going to spend a

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Speaker 1: lot for that. If I can jump on a plane

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Speaker 1: and go and travel, I will do that. But goods

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Speaker 1: and day to day things, I've got enough stuff, right,

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Speaker 1: And so now that AI trade, right, that's the secular trade.

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Speaker 1: The discretionary spending is not AI. It's a non discretionary spend.

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Speaker 1: And it's beginning to build out.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 1: You have the secondary and tertiary trades, the data centers,

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Speaker 1: the power issues surrounding that, the electrification, and so I

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Speaker 1: think if you're looking for a narrative, consumers probably produces

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Speaker 1: over consumer. But really it's that AI trade. It's that

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Speaker 1: momentum trade. It's still a garb growthy market in our opinion.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned M and A and I have to go

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Speaker 4: there because it's something we've been talking about a lot.

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Speaker 4: How much M and A can happen given some of

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Speaker 4: the recent FTC action.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's a great question and one of the things

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Speaker 1: we keep saying one of the things that we think

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Speaker 1: will happen. Right, People ask us how do you handicap elections?

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Speaker 1: What do you do? And the thing that we look

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Speaker 1: at is who's going to control the Senate? Who controls

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Speaker 1: the Senate is very important. If the GOP takes control

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Speaker 1: of the Senate, that's much better for equity markets. And

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Speaker 1: I think this time around it's going to be much

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Speaker 1: better for M and A because the regulatory environment is

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Speaker 1: very difficult for M and A and M and A activity.

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Speaker 1: And so if you see that change in the Senate,

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Speaker 1: I think that helps accelerate longer term M and A

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Speaker 1: in the M and A cycle.

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Speaker 4: So, aside from a rate hike by the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 4: what could crack your confidence in this hype of return

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Speaker 4: as we pass through which data matters most?

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Speaker 1: How long do you have time?

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Speaker 3: We've got time?

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Speaker 1: So, right, now it's rates. I'm really worried about rates

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Speaker 1: because rate equity and rates, there is this momentum component

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Speaker 1: where I buy strength, I sell weakness. So you can

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Speaker 1: see rates gap up pretty quickly. Right we're above I

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Speaker 1: think we're four sixty four to sixty and change. You

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Speaker 1: could see four four and three quarters five percent very

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Speaker 1: very quickly. The other thing is expectations. Are we seeing

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Speaker 1: people just managing expectations or are they telling us something different?

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Speaker 1: And then the last thing in the equity market, it's

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Speaker 1: the same thing. Right, I buy strength, I sell weakness. Well,

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Speaker 1: a downturn of three four five percent can turn into

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Speaker 1: a seventy eight, nine, ten percent. I'll sell them very

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Speaker 1: very quickly. So those are some of the things that

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Speaker 1: we're worried about right now.

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Speaker 3: Chris, this was great. It's going to catch up. It's

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Speaker 3: been so long.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been to Thank you Chris Safide of Welsh Sanga.

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Speaker 2: Especially this economic data with Plurina Yurriucci of t Rowe Price.

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Speaker 3: She joins us.

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Speaker 2: Now, Plerina, this is an interesting mix of data with

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Speaker 2: the emphasis on interesting. You've got a big downsize surprise

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Speaker 2: on GDP. You've got a COPYC price Index quarter on quarter,

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Speaker 2: coming in a bit hotter than expected, job has claims

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Speaker 2: a little bit lower than expected. Why would you place

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Speaker 2: the emphasis this morning?

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Speaker 5: So I think it's very important to unpack the components

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Speaker 5: of GDP and what led to this slowing in growth

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Speaker 5: in Q one. So overall, I would say this is

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Speaker 5: not a worrying report for the FED. It's a report

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Speaker 5: that says the economy continues to expand at a solid pace.

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Speaker 5: Look at consumption growth at about two and a half percent.

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Speaker 5: This is a healthy consumer that is backed up by

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Speaker 5: the claims data where unemployment claims are low and job

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Speaker 5: growth remains strong when you look at the payroll data.

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Speaker 5: So overall, it's a report that says to the FED,

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Speaker 5: the economy is not reaccelerating, it's slowing from the pace

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Speaker 5: of growth in the second half of last year. That

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Speaker 5: is telling the fact that those interest rate increases maybe

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Speaker 5: having some affection slowing demand, particularly for goods, but it's

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Speaker 5: not alarming by any means. And then what I like

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Speaker 5: to do with this GDP report is to sort of

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Speaker 5: look at the final domestic sales and final sales to

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Speaker 5: domestic private actors in the economy. And that's again that's

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Speaker 5: showing two and a half to three and a half

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Speaker 5: percent growth in Q one, it's not telling us the

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Speaker 5: economy is that week after all. And I think a

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Speaker 5: big drag here is also coming from net inventory contribution,

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Speaker 5: which Michael already alluded to.

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Speaker 2: So we want to talk about the sustainability of this

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Speaker 2: economic growth that we're seeing, because so many people are

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Speaker 2: planning gone to the story of US exceptionalism away from

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Speaker 2: the top line number, which is a clear and obvious

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Speaker 2: downside surprise, the sources of growth in the first Quarterlurinic blurinic,

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Speaker 2: we talk that. Do you see that continuing through twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So there are.

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Speaker 5: A couple of interesting things here. Let's start with business investment.

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Speaker 5: This has been driven by structures investment in the past

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Speaker 5: and intellectual property investment as the housing market was really

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Speaker 5: retrenching throughout twenty two and twenty three and res investment collapsed.

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Speaker 5: Now we're seeing a rebound in res investment, and I

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Speaker 5: think this is going to be sustained this year because

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Speaker 5: there is really a dearth of housing in the housing market.

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Speaker 5: We don't have inventory, and home builders will start building

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Speaker 5: again and we're seeing that in Q one. So I

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Speaker 5: think this will remain supportive of growth. Also, the point

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Speaker 5: that we've made in the past together in this show

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Speaker 5: is that I think the consumer, the US consumer will

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Speaker 5: continue to keep its wallet open so long as we

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Speaker 5: don't have layoffs, and layoff data are not screaming weak

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Speaker 5: scigence now, and so long as we continue to add jobs.

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Speaker 5: And then, Michael McKey, we already discuss this problem of

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Speaker 5: historical residual seasonality with Q on GDP growth, which means

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Speaker 5: that oftentimes Q one also Q two tends to be

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Speaker 5: weaker than the second half of the year, So we

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Speaker 5: need to be concious of this as well. Now, the question,

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Speaker 5: the bigger question that I think you're also trying to

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Speaker 5: allude to, is where is potential growth for the economy.

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Speaker 5: How fast can we grow beyond potential this year? And

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Speaker 5: this is the big question mark this year because we

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Speaker 5: don't know the effect of this shock to the labor

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Speaker 5: supply from migrant workers that we received last year.

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Speaker 4: Blorina. The market seems to emphasize, as John is pointing out,

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Speaker 4: the inflation figures as well as the job as claims

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Speaker 4: coming in lighter than expected. Is this what the FED

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Speaker 4: would focus on as well? They focus more on inflationary

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Speaker 4: pressures than they would say on slowing growth.

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Speaker 5: What the Fed has told us is that they're not

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Speaker 5: concerned about the strong growth numbers and the strong employment numbers,

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Speaker 5: and their focus remains inflation. So in that sense, it

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Speaker 5: makes sense. I think they'll look at the GDP numbers

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Speaker 5: through this lens too. But at the same time, there

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Speaker 5: is no new information really in the PC deflator for

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Speaker 5: Q one because we've already received January and February data

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Speaker 5: for PC. We knew that that meat expectations. We largely

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Speaker 5: have the components of March PC because of the CPI

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Speaker 5: reports and the PPI reports that we've received in recent weeks,

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Speaker 5: and so I'm surprised that the market should focus so

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Speaker 5: much on the QE GDP deflator because there's no new

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Speaker 5: information there. As far as I'm concerned.

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Speaker 2: If Loreina great to catch up with you, I just

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Speaker 2: want to get a final question that if we can,

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Speaker 2: looking ahead to the Federal Reserve next week, what is

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Speaker 2: going to be the big topic of focus for you

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Speaker 2: and then FMC meeting. Do you expect any big changes

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Speaker 2: to the statement at all?

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Speaker 5: So I would say that they want to be a

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Speaker 5: little bit cautious about how sanguine they are on the

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Speaker 5: number of case that they will be able to deliver

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Speaker 5: this year, given the strength of economic data, the labor market,

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Speaker 5: and the upsides prizes to inflation. So I do think

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Speaker 5: they will emphasize that they have a dubbish bias, but

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Speaker 5: it's uncertain whether they'll be able to deliver on that

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Speaker 5: March sep and the dot plot, so I'm watching for

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Speaker 5: signs that they want to back off from three cuts

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Speaker 5: this year.

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Speaker 2: Got it, Loreina, Thank you, Michaelhersha and at twenty TV

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Speaker 2: Research joins to surround the table. Michael Comornitier. Let's get

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Speaker 2: into this. So I heard it from Yellen, We're going

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Speaker 2: to hear it from blinked. When do we start to

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Speaker 2: see the policy?

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Speaker 7: Well, I think a sanctions push is something that the

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Speaker 7: US is not going to take lately, especially on a

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Speaker 7: major Chinese bank, and I think, frankly, the Chinese are

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Speaker 7: taking this pretty Chinese banks are taking this pretty seriously

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Speaker 7: as well, So I would guess that this move is

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Speaker 7: not imminent, but you have to take the thread seriously.

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Speaker 6: Is the warning enough for the Chinese banks to change course?

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Speaker 7: I think for the large banks Beijing will let them

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Speaker 7: manage their own sanctions risk. I think it's more likely

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Speaker 7: that we would see something that would be one of

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Speaker 7: the smaller banks. Now that could be still a large

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Speaker 7: bank in absolute terms, but what we've seen with Iran,

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Speaker 7: with North Korea is it's typically the sanctions risk is

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Speaker 7: really embedded in the smaller Chinese financial institutions.

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Speaker 6: There's a plethora of issues Tony blinkn is going to

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Speaker 6: want to bring up today, whether it's China bring you

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Speaker 6: more Iranian crude, whether it's China supporting Russia. If not outright,

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Speaker 6: but through these things like helping them with the materials

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Speaker 6: they need TikTok South China. See what is the main

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Speaker 6: request they need to ask over capacity?

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Speaker 3: What do you go in there and say you need

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Speaker 3: to sort this immediately.

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Speaker 7: I think it is a long list. As you said,

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Speaker 7: I don't think that Blincoln is going to carry the water,

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Speaker 7: so to speak.

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Speaker 3: On trade.

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Speaker 7: I think that's really discussion left to trade officials. I mean,

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Speaker 7: clearly he's going to make that point. But I think

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Speaker 7: higher on Blinken's agenda will be China support for Russia, Iran,

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Speaker 7: and then nexus to the Israel and Goaza conflict, and

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Speaker 7: then South China. See, you have you a flashpoint that

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Speaker 7: people sometimes sleep on, but is really serious with the

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Speaker 7: tensions between China and the Philippines, that could bring the

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Speaker 7: US in potentially quite easily, in the sense that the

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Speaker 7: US is a treaty ally with the Philippines. So if

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Speaker 7: we see an accidental collision, some kind of miscalculation between

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Speaker 7: China and the Philippines, that issue moves right to the

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Speaker 7: front burner.

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Speaker 4: How much do you think that the conversation is going

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Speaker 4: to sound something like this, Tony Blankin to the ambassador

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Speaker 4: or even Jijinpang, we're so much better than the other guy,

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Speaker 4: will be so work with us.

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Speaker 7: I don't think that will be an explicit part of

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Speaker 7: the conversation, but the election certainly is on something that

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Speaker 7: is on the minds of the Chinese. I think they

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Speaker 7: don't want to see China become any more of the

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Speaker 7: center of the US election than they already are with

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Speaker 7: an issue like TikTok, So it's an incentive for Beijing

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Speaker 7: not to let these issues flare up too much. At

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Speaker 7: the same time, it somewhat limits President Biden's negotiating leverage

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Speaker 7: because the Chinese don't know who is going to be

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Speaker 7: president a year from now, so the election is going

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Speaker 7: to be something that's in the certainly on everyone's mind,

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Speaker 7: but not explicitly raised. In this conversation.

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Speaker 4: You said that trade is not going to be really

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Speaker 4: the main issue. They're going to be talking about support

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Speaker 4: to Russia and trade with Russia and some of the

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Speaker 4: other sort of global interference with geopolitics on the part

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Speaker 4: of TEDDA, how do you divorce the idea of trade

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Speaker 4: from some of those issues at a time work economics

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Speaker 4: increasingly is really determining the geopolitics.

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Speaker 7: They can't be divorced, and especially if you think about

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Speaker 7: the excess capacity issue, it's one that's really tied to

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Speaker 7: the strategic competition over clean energy. If you look at

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Speaker 7: the export controls, which are a trade issue, right, limiting

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Speaker 7: export of semi connectors to China a direct link back

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Speaker 7: to national security. So it is definitely going to be

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Speaker 7: part of the conversation. The Chinese, i think, are going

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Speaker 7: to push back quite forcefully on US tech restrictions.

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Speaker 3: They see this.

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Speaker 7: They've been characterizing this as an obstacle to China's development.

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Speaker 7: So it's getting closer to being sort of a core

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Speaker 7: redline issue for China's so it absolutely is going to

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Speaker 7: be part of the conversation.

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Speaker 3: They can't be divorced, but Japan is going to be

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Speaker 3: watching very carefully.

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Speaker 2: Can we just build on this conversation that Lisa starts in,

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Speaker 2: how do you think countries like the United States will

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Speaker 2: maintain national security cooperation with countries like Japan at a

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Speaker 2: time where maybe economics cooperation is tested, And I will

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Speaker 2: use that word tested. I can think of Nippon steel

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Speaker 2: looking at what's happening at the FX market. How do

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Speaker 2: you maintain cooperation in one when cooperation in the other

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Speaker 2: is a little bit French yud Right now?

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Speaker 7: I think for US Japan this relationship is really very solid.

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Speaker 7: I think there's a mutual interest there and enough time,

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Speaker 7: you know, spent on the relationship to be able to

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Speaker 7: see through issues like Nupon steel. The exchange rate, you know,

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Speaker 7: is an issue. I think it's the same issue on

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Speaker 7: the Chinese side, right dollar yen has got the same

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Speaker 7: issues as dollar yen, and there you have the prospect

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Speaker 7: of these geopolitics seeping in there as well. So it's

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Speaker 7: a complicated balancing act also on the Chinese side as

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Speaker 7: we think about these exchange rate development.

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Speaker 3: What did you make of what happened last week in Washington,

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Speaker 3: d C.

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Speaker 2: What was your impression of the mating that Japan and

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Speaker 2: South Korea had with the Treasury secretary.

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Speaker 7: Clearly it's showing, you know, interest on both sides and

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Speaker 7: managing these exchange rate movements. You know, it's it's a

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Speaker 7: complicated task. I think, as you're saying, one of the

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Speaker 7: questions is.

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Speaker 3: When do they intervene? How do they intervene?

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Speaker 7: We've just seen verbal intervention so far. I think frankly,

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Speaker 7: they're fighting against some pretty strong fundamentals in terms of

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Speaker 7: the strength of the US economy and the prospect that

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Speaker 7: the FED is going to be higher for longer. So

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Speaker 7: there's limits, you know, to how much FX intervention can

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Speaker 7: do when the fundamental the mismatch between the fundamentals are

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Speaker 7: that strong.

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Speaker 6: When you're talking about allies like Japan, I also think

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Speaker 6: of the European Union. How much is Secretary blink In

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Speaker 6: today going to rely on those allies And the fact

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Speaker 6: that the Biden administration, as opposed to really the Trump

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Speaker 6: administration has taken a multilateral approach, saying it's not just us,

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Speaker 6: it's a group of us that you're going to have

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Speaker 6: to contend with.

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Speaker 7: It's a big part of the conversation, and I think

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Speaker 7: the Biden administration really wants and needs the Europeans to

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Speaker 7: step up more on this issue of China, support for Russia,

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Speaker 7: and a number of these other flashpoints you know, on

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Speaker 7: excess capacity. This is even more of an issue for

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Speaker 7: European countries like Germany than it is necessarily for the

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Speaker 7: US economy. On Russia, Ukraine, it's even more of an

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Speaker 7: existential threat to European security than it is to the US.

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Speaker 7: So the US is counting on the Europeans to do more.

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Speaker 7: Whether they will do more remains to be seen. President

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Speaker 7: She will be visiting France next month. That's going to

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Speaker 7: be really interesting tests to see how forcefully the Europeans

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Speaker 7: are going to push back.

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Speaker 4: How nervous do you think Tim Cook is in terms

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Speaker 4: of its business Apple's business right now in China?

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Speaker 3: How at risk are some of.

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Speaker 4: The US and frankly even European companies that rely on

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Speaker 4: China for their business.

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Speaker 7: If I'm Tim Cook, I'd probably be more nervous about

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Speaker 7: the macro situation in China, the fact that the consumer

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Speaker 7: remains weak and that there's rising competition than it would

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Speaker 7: necessary early from the political risk, He's definitely got to

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Speaker 7: manage that. But if we're thinking about an Apple or

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Speaker 7: a Tesla, those are such bellweather companies in China's market

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Speaker 7: that I think Beijing has to be careful about overt retaliation.

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Speaker 7: This is, you know, at the time when China's trying

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Speaker 7: to revive confidence in the economy, A strike against an

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Speaker 7: Apple or Tesla would really chill the business environment. I

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Speaker 7: think the US firms that are more at risk of

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Speaker 7: retaliation are you know, less of the brand name, marquee names,

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Speaker 7: more closely tied to technology competition. Those are the areas

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Speaker 7: that I think, you know, those companies are more risk.

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Speaker 7: But frankly, Beijing does not have great options for retaliation

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Speaker 7: at a time they're trying to revive the economy.

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Speaker 3: Michael enjoyed this. Thanks for mness. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Michael hosting that of twenty two the research. This is

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Speaker 1: Mm hmm