WEBVTT - Interview Only w/ Ian Bremmer - Trump Is Driving Instability & Chaos Around The Globe 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.360 This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.240 by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.280 frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, artisonal pastries, and 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:14.800 fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:18.759 five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:21.880 Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:25.480 slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:28.080 your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:32.600 nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:35.800 Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:38.920 variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box, 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:42.559 and a new protein box. I will tell you I 0:00:42.600 --> 0:00:44.960 have done the gluten free box. I have done it 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:48.600 a second time. I have also used the code, the 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:52.040 todcast code. If you use the promo code toodcast at checkout, 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:55.640 you get thirty dollars off. I've already used it as 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:58.880 a gift to somebody else who loves this bread. It 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.560 is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic. 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.720 They give you step by step instructions. I really dig this. 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.760 There is nothing like having an artesian bakery in your 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.560 freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.920 best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.600 meals with Wildgrain. I obviously highly recommend it. It is 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:22.759 worth giving Wildgrain to try. Right now, Wildgrain is offering 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:25.920 my listeners thirty dollars off your first box plus free 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:29.400 croissants for life. Come on when you go to wildgrain 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:33.280 dot com slash podcast to start your subscription today. That's 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:36.440 thirty dollars off your first box and free croissants for 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:39.840 life when you visit wildgrain dot com slash podcast, or 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:43.760 simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. This is 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:51.560 a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. How 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:54.200 unsettled do you feel about the globe? How unsettled do 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:57.000 you feel about American politics? Obviously, of the year I 0:01:57.160 --> 0:02:01.600 team twenty twenty six, a year of living dayangerously, I think, 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:05.920 whether it's what we saw in Minnesota feels like we're 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:08.960 a spark away from something not good in this country, 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:12.959 and we have a world that feels unsettled everywhere, whether 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:16.400 it's Venezuela, whether it's Iron, whether it's Taiwan, whether it's Ukraine. 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.079 Well you get the picture. So who better to bring 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.600 in to talk about all the risk and the year 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.360 of living dangerously than my Friendie and Bremer of your 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:27.080 Raisier group and Ian. 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:29.400 Look you you. 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:31.680 I started off a bit glum for the year, and 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:35.720 you had you played a big role in that. Your annuals, 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:41.480 your annual risk list of top risks out there, frankly, 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:45.360 only reinforced what I think what was already I was 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:48.560 sort of seeing domestically, and certainly I sort of refer 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:52.000 to myself these days as a political anthropologist when it 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:55.280 comes to domestic politics. But you've got your pulse on 0:02:56.360 --> 0:03:02.600 international political science as well. So you painted a picture 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:08.760 of Look, I want to quote Doc Brown in a 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:12.280 back to the future, where we're going there are no roads. 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:14.880 I don't know where we're going, but I know there 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:17.360 are no roads, and we're headed somewhere that by the 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:20.119 end of this year you and I may meet up again, 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:22.960 going holy shit, how did we get here? 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:28.280 I mean this, It's not like there isn't good news 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:33.520 out there, right. I mean, for example, last twenty years, 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:37.120 most of the people I know in the international affairs 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:41.000 space thought that we were heading towards US China confrontation, 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:45.240 new Cold war, you know, could could lead to something 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:48.960 even worse than that. That that's not where we are, right, 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:49.400 I mean the. 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.240 Right. And I also think when we can talk about 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:57.120 Iron for a minute, we're about to see a Middle 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:58.280 East that maybe. 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:01.360 A whole new world. 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:02.680 In a in a good way. 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.040 Maybe maybe I'd love to see that. I think we're 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:09.120 still We're still farther from that than i'd like us 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:12.400 to be. There's a lot of capacity and willingness to repress, 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:15.520 and a lot of Ronnie and civilians that are dead 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:20.360 today that weren't a week ago. But still, I mean, 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:22.480 it's not like everything in the world is blowing up, 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:26.760 and the response to the United States is not purely destructive. 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:31.359 I mean, frankly, you know, the EU and Mercasoor just 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.000 did one of the world's largest free trade deals that 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.680 wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for Trump, because they're. 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:39.800 I talked about this the last time I had you on. 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:44.120 I think Donald Trump's making Europe great again. Well, I 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.479 wouldn't go down, I think, Well, but the point what 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:50.159 I what I mean by it is Europe needed to stop. 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:51.760 Relying on the United States, so they need a kick 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.479 in the ass and fear that they're still not going 0:04:54.560 --> 0:04:54.919 to make it. 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:57.720 But yes, I agree, and Donald Trump's presidency turned out 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.600 to be the kick of the ass that at least 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:00.640 they find noticed. 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:04.240 Donald Trump is definitely that kick in the ass. I 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:07.360 think that's clear. I think that's clear for the Europeans, 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.840 for the Canadians, for the Mexicans, for some for the 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:14.640 remaining regime in Venezuela. I mean, my god, he represents 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:16.320 a kick in the ass to an awful lot of people. 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:18.120 But of course, you know, the big thing is that 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.920 the uncertain We have seen the uncertainty, we've seen the risk, 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:23.920 and he is us, right, I mean, that is that 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:24.840 is the reason why. 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.640 That's what's so. But that's not even you know, it's funny. 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:30.800 You made it your top risk. And yet I feel 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:32.200 like two years ago, if you had done that, it 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:34.680 would have seen controversial, It would have been weird if 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.640 we weren't the top risk. Right, shocking, Right, we are 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:40.480 at the center of everybody else's instability. 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.720 Yep, yep, yep, no questions. 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:46.120 A weird place for America to be, yep. 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:52.760 But in part it is the logical conclusion of decades 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:56.400 of Americans of different stripes increasingly saying we don't like 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:00.960 the role that we have carved out for our selfs globally, 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:03.880 we don't really believe in it in different ways, whether 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:08.280 it's foreign aid or promotion of rule of law and democracy, 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:13.120 or free trade or collective security alliances, all these wars. 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:16.240 So that that's a big piece of it, right, And 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:21.320 then there's the domestic piece too, with two completely different 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:26.920 worldviews housed in one country. Right. And you know when 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:30.640 those things start to really break, when those assumptions are 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:36.680 fundamentally questioned by a guy who is, you know, thrives 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:41.560 on being a chaos actor, then it's not a surprise 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:42.040 that we're. 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:46.640 Driving that uncertain Let's start in our hemisphere and then move. 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:51.920 So one of the things I like to correct with 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.160 some of my friends on the left actually is that 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.440 there hasn't been regime change in Venezuela. The regime is 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:01.440 still in power. Yes, right, they've only extracted one individual. 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:08.560 How do we get to individuals? Don't disparage the wife. 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:10.360 Like that enough? 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:14.200 Where how do we get to a better place in 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:17.560 Venezuela without American boots on the ground. 0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:20.840 Well, I mean, let's face it, getting to a better 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:24.840 Venezuela with American boots on the ground might be more challenging, right, 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:29.960 I mean, given our recent experience in Venezuela is not Iraq, right, 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:36.760 It's not Afghanistan, It has recent experience with democracy, it 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:41.600 doesn't have massive internal sectarian divides. There are a lot 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:45.800 of exiled elites that would love to be able to 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:49.920 come back, and the power asymmetries are massive with the 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:54.160 United States right there in the hemisphere, right, So, I mean, 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:56.559 there are lots of reasons to believe that at least 0:07:56.600 --> 0:08:00.320 in the near term, they are going to behave eve 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:06.360 themselves more because they understand the orls they are going to. 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:10.160 They're going to listen to the Americans on oil. They 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:14.320 have freed a small number of political prisoners, but high 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:19.000 level prisoners, by the way, leaders of in the opposition movement, 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:23.720 because Marco Rubio and others told them they had to. So, 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:29.120 you know, the early days on this are without American troops, 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:33.320 but with the credibility and presence of all of that 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:39.439 military capacity, and with the willingness to prod the IMF 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:43.480 to provide some support over time and get some private 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:49.640 sector companies with guarantees to actually back them up, that 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:53.480 there are reasons why in the near term this will 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:58.959 go well. The much more the problem with Venezuela is 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.720 much more about when start talking about actual power sharing, 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:07.360 which the people want, you know, Frankly, Marco and others 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.720 around Trump, even if Trump doesn't care, they want it, 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:15.920 and yet the government, the existing regime will resist that 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.520 with every sinew of their body. 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:23.040 My concern is that Trump doesn't care about the democracy piece. 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:25.800 If the regime does what he asks, he's going to 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:27.400 be fine with leaving them in place. 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:32.679 Well, but I'm suggesting that that won't work right. In 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:34.920 other words, that when you have when you have that 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:38.640 many people in the country that now see a weaker, 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.959 more vulnerable military that's been bloodied up by the US, 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:46.200 and they overwhelmingly want their opposition in place, they will 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:48.520 clamor for it. That when you have a lot of 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:54.720 MAGA supporters in Mara A Lago who are themselves exiles, 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:58.120 that's a strong community. They're going to be pushing for it. 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:06.000 Marco and others that really did organize the TikTok on 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:11.360 these attacks also they want it. And so I don't 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:15.880 even though Trump Trump's the decider. Trump's got the power, 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:19.920 he's the president, and he doesn't care. I agree he 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:22.080 doesn't care about what kind of regime it is. But 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:26.400 I think that he can't. He can't just ignore that issue. 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:29.920 Do you see it? Like we help that there's elections 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:34.320 in six months a year? What's your you know, is 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:38.360 there anybody thinking about this? Like okay, when what's the soonest? 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:41.800 We could actually hold national elections? 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:45.960 Soonest is probably six months? More realistic is twelve to eighteen. 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:50.120 And again, as they start talking about it, and it 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.199 won't be the first thing they discuss, but as they 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.520 get to that process, what I think we will see 0:10:57.200 --> 0:11:02.520 is an effort by the military to give on many 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:07.800 other grounds and obfuse gate, which is what they've done before. 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:10.679 Reasons why it can't be done soon, and here are 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:14.360 the mechanisms, and here are some candidates we can't tolerate, 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.800 and all sorts of ways to push out, water down 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:22.640 and ensure that they are the ones that control everything. 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:26.000 But ultimately, I'm not going to sit here and tell 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:29.440 you a power sharing agreement is impossible. You couldn't just 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.040 bring in the opposition and tell the military you're out. 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:36.720 But then again, we all know that Paul Bremer doing 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:40.559 that in a rock that was a disaster. Like removing 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:44.200 the Bathists, removing the security and the military forces was 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:50.000 what the US should have never done, never done. 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:53.800 There are a handful of intriguing elections this year in 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:58.480 Latin America, Columbia, Colombia is fascinating to me, in Brazil 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:02.160 or probably the two big ones. There's Peru as well. 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:10.600 How much will anti Americanism be part of those campaigns? Now? 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:14.439 And you know my great fear is, look, you know, 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.520 I'm I'm. I have a friend who does a lot 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:20.720 of work in Colombia has not been a big fan 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:23.760 of this. This political party is hopeful that the other 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:27.640 political party comes back. And I know that a lot 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:31.920 of American business folks feel that way. And it looks 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.560 like that had been a glide path. But now I 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:42.960 wonder does Trump and does our involvement in Venezuela spark 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:46.000 a backlash in a Colombia spark a backlash? Yeah? 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.160 No, and it doesn't. So it's a good it's a 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:53.000 really good question, especially because we've seen that backlash change 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:58.200 outcomes in Canada. We've seen that backlash change outcomes in 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:01.360 Australia in both cases is and I. 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:05.040 Would argue Lula's political standing has been strengthened due to Trump. 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.520 A little bit, a little bit much less so, but 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:11.000 a little bit definitely after Trump, you know, sort of 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:15.199 basically said we're tariffing you because of the bull jail 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.440 term that was handed down by the Supreme Court. Not 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:23.440 not Lula, right, but but actually in Latin America, in 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:30.520 these countries, number one issue overwhelmingly right now is domestic security, 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:37.080 and and that plays out so bole in l Salvador 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:41.160 is by far the most popular leader, even though he's 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.560 a pro Trump guy. He's not popular because he's pro Trump. 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:48.360 He's popular because he's actually really like wielded the fists 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:53.560 in creating security. And one could argue he's broken a 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.600 lot of eggs to make that omelet right. 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:59.360 A lot of guys, I'll uh, you'll appreciate this. I 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:03.800 teach a for USC here in DC. That's called how 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:06.920 Washington works. And last semester I had a an nol 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:15.079 Salvadorian student who said, yeah, boy, my parents and I 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.360 don't speak about Bouqueta anymore. Like it was just like 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:20.840 she said, basically, if you live in al Salvador. 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:21.400 You love the guy. 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:23.200 If you don't live there, you don't and you're El 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.200 Salvador and you don't like the guy. It's a it's 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:26.440 a fascinating it's. 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.480 Like ninety percent local approval, and it's it's true approval, right, 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:31.040 And it's. 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.560 Just because she does. Look, it was so unsafe, right, 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.880 it was so. 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:39.600 When Maduro gets taken out, and he is not just 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:45.160 a bad guy, but he is actually coordinating narco cartels 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:49.720 right across the region, and he also did lead to 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.480 the destabilization of a lot of countries, including Colombia because 0:14:53.480 --> 0:15:00.640 of eight million displaced Venezuelans. They are delighted to see 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:05.000 the back of Maduro and they want security in their 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:08.480 own countries. So I and the secondary issue is the 0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:13.160 local economy. So I don't think there's a backlash. Mexico 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.520 is a different story because it's so integrated with the 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:18.400 US and their economy is not doing well though Shanebaum 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:22.360 is actually quite popular. But for Columbia and for Brazil, 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:27.000 I don't actually think that the Trump factor will be 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.160 determinative and either of them. 0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.200 Well, it's been interesting. It's sort of like I and 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:34.080 this is where you sometimes have cross currents. There does 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:37.680 seem to be a general move you know, and we've 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:39.760 seen this in Latin America. It's like a windshield wiper 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:44.080 when suddenly, you know, five countries move left, then five 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:44.800 countries move. 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:47.520 Right, you know, and I feel like there's a right 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.680 word pull right now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But in Columbia, 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:54.600 I mean, Petro got into that big spat with Trump, 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:58.359 and apparently the Trump administration was like literally had targets 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:01.120 and they were ready to engage in the lateral strikes. 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:05.680 And then Petro calls Trump and he pretends that like 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:07.640 he'd been begging for that call for weeks. 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:09.120 Yeah, and he. 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:10.840 Made it sound as if, oh, I didn't even know 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:12.920 Trump was gonna call me, and so thank god I 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.120 wasn't laid for it. But I mean, you know, we're 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:17.720 gonna get together and it's going to be wonderful, and 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.920 you know, suddenly their buddies. Because he's been personally sanctioned 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:24.200 by by the United States, right, and it's a problem 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:28.520 for him. He really wanted the the other side of 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:31.800 get the other side of that potential conflict, and I 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.920 think the likelihood that his preferred candidate on the left 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.240 can get through a second round is. It's there, but 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.160 it's it's very low. You would expect to string. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:44.880 You know, you don't fear that anti Americanism could suddenly 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:46.320 prop that left disc government. 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.080 Nope, Nope, it's not playing out in any of the 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:51.320 polls right now, not at all. And Brazil I think 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:53.400 is going to be a close election and it's going 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.680 to be Bolsonaro's kid, right it looks that way. I mean, 0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.440 that's just going to be a fascinating putting forward fight. 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:02.720 And they're now thinking about who his running mate for 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:06.000 vice president would be. But I would say they still 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:07.800 want to see how he's going to do over the 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:11.000 next couple months before they all line up behind him. 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:14.840 So it's likely to be Flavio bolscenario. Keep in mind 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.840 that his father, the former president, has had a lot 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.920 of health issues recently, and you know, if he ends 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:28.240 up really not being able to be a strong, live 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:31.240 political force, things could change very quickly. 0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:34.960 How's Lula's health, He's been there a long time. 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.280 Seems to be okay. I mean he's what in his 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:42.360 eighties now, he doesn't even keep a smartphone. I mean 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.200 he's like, you know, the way he does his work 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.439 and the way he's briefed is so twentieth century. It's 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.600 kind of shocking that he's running the largest economy in 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:54.920 South America, but he's decided he wants to run again. 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:58.600 I think it's criminal negligence for him to be running 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:02.280 for another full term basically because of his age. Yeah 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:04.399 and all of that. Yeah, absolutely, but very much that 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:08.760 Biden situation. Biden situation, I mean all across subs are 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:10.760 in Africa. I mean a lot of places where people 0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:12.880 should know. This is a huge issue all over Africa, 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:13.400 that's for sure. 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:18.840 Let's move to Claudia Shinbaum because one of the comments 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:20.520 that didn't get a lot of traction over the last 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:24.040 couple of weeks was when Trump just managed, matter of factly, 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.120 said well, she doesn't control her own country. I'm gonna 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:29.240 have to take care of the cartels, and you're and 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:33.359 Shinebaum to her. She never overreacts to Trump publicly. She 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:36.280 always she is you know, she's in that sense, she's 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:39.359 figured out how to manage the personal relationship with him, 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:41.760 probably better than any world leader. But I'm curious if 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.160 you disagree, well. 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:46.119 I mean, you'd argue that h J and Ping has 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:51.480 done the best job managing the Trump relationship back and 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:55.959 turns out that's effective. Right, But Cloudia, pound for pound, 0:18:56.080 --> 0:18:59.520 Cloudy the best job. Yeah, I think that's probably right. 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:02.000 I mean, her throw weight is a little smaller in 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:07.399 terms of Mexico's asymmetrical disadvantages. But I will say that, 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:09.720 like three months ago. 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:14.000 You know, the the scuttle but inside the White House was, yeah, 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:16.480 we thought we might have to engage in strikes, but 0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:20.800 they're cooperating so effectively that we probably don't need to now. 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:23.840 And that was even Stephen Miller's perspective. 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:27.280 Right, it's my assunt, but I understand that in country. 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:28.920 I've got a few people I've talked to that say 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:33.240 that she seems pretty intent and that she's more serious 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:34.879 about it than Amblo was. 0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.800 Yes, yes she is, and she is both in terms 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:42.679 of the importance of her security. Bona fide is for 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:45.840 her own popular support in terms of what she did 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:49.400 when she was mayor of Mexico City and the corruption 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:52.399 around the Attorney General, the Minister of Justice, excuse me, 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:55.320 and others, which she's who she finally forced out, the 0:19:55.400 --> 0:20:00.560 chief prosecutor. And also because she understands the she's very 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:04.159 vulnerable to the Americans if she doesn't shut down the 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:08.040 meth labs, if she doesn't, you know, sort of capture 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:10.560 a whole bunch of fentanyl. And they have done more, 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:15.200 but but is more enough. They are very worried about it, 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:20.119 and it certainly seems to me that Trump, that Marco 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:24.200 Rubio in particular over the past week since the Venezuela 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:30.720 operation have soured on Mexico, is getting this done. Maybe 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:34.680 this is over confidence because of Venezuela and the focus 0:20:34.720 --> 0:20:38.240 on the Donroe doctrine. Maybe it's because there there isn't 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.440 as much cooperation as they really want. Maybe it's because 0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:43.919 they're they're worried about the economy and the rest in 0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:45.919 the US. They want to show some more wins. But 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:49.399 definitely that noise has increased. 0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:55.480 This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:58.600 by Quints, and I love me some Quints. New Year, 0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:01.840 Colder Days. This is the moment your winter wardrobe really 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:04.600 has to deliver. If you're craving a winter reset, start 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:08.240 with pieces truly made to last season after season. Quint 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:12.399 springs together premium materials, thoughtful design, and enduring quality so 0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:15.399 you stay warm, look sharp, and feel your best all season. 0:21:15.440 --> 0:21:15.680 Long. 0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:20.119 Quinn's has everything you need men's Mongolian cashmere sweaters. I 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:22.560 have one. I have to say, really into it. They 0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:25.840 have wool coats, leather, and swayed outerwear that actually hold 0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:29.480 up to daily wear and still look good. Their outerwears 0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:33.600 especially impressive. Think down jackets, wool coats, and Italian leather 0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:37.520 outerwear that keep you warm when it's actually cold. Each 0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:40.800 piece made from premium materials. Quints delivers the same quality 0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:44.080 as luxury brands at a fraction of the price. The 0:21:44.119 --> 0:21:47.280 result is classic styles you'll love that hold up year 0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:50.280 after year. You know me, I love me my quarter zips. 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:52.480 Quinn S hays quite a few of them. They're great. 0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:57.719 They're both light and warm. There's nothing harder than business casual. Right, 0:21:57.800 --> 0:21:59.680 you get these things? What can I wear? What can 0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:01.159 you wear at a meeting? What do you wear on 0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:03.320 a zoom? I have to say. It's as if Quinn 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:05.880 sort of says, hey, look, we've got the modern sort 0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:09.840 of working wardrobe ready for you. Clothing that looks stylish, 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:13.600 looks good, but is actually practical and isn't going to 0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:17.480 break the bank. So refresher winter wardrobe with Quints. Go 0:22:17.560 --> 0:22:20.480 to Quins dot com slash chuck for free shipping on 0:22:20.560 --> 0:22:23.040 your order and three hundred and sixty five day returns. 0:22:23.240 --> 0:22:25.840 And it's also available in Canada. That's q u i 0:22:26.119 --> 0:22:30.280 nce dot com slash chuck, free shipping and three hundred 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:34.359 and sixty five day returns quints dot com slash chuck. 0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:40.119 Doesn't she have a I mean, tourism is. 0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:42.240 So important to the Mexican economy, and. 0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:44.760 The perception in this country is that Mexico is not. 0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:49.400 As not safe. Doesn't she wants Americans to believe things 0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:49.800 are safe? 0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:50.800 There Isn't that good. 0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:53.200 Ef the perception. I mean, when you think about it 0:22:53.200 --> 0:22:55.680 depends on how you pray. Sure, But I mean, do 0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:58.840 we really think that Cancun is a problem. No? 0:22:59.040 --> 0:23:01.280 And I've always been told that the reason why Cabo 0:23:01.320 --> 0:23:03.840 and Cancun aren't a problem is because the cartels own 0:23:03.880 --> 0:23:07.000 the hotels in those areas and that's the money. That's 0:23:07.000 --> 0:23:09.480 how they launder the money, and they know they don't 0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:12.840 want to kill the golden goose, so I have that's 0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:15.480 how That's how I've had folks reassure. 0:23:15.080 --> 0:23:17.920 Me about Cabo. Put it that way, okay, But tuloom, 0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:20.960 I mean, you know my Coba even Mexico City, I mean, 0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:24.640 you know, Guadalajara, I mean Wahaka. I mean the friends 0:23:24.640 --> 0:23:28.680 of mine from all walks of life, from working class 0:23:28.760 --> 0:23:32.000 to super rich, have not been you know, sort of 0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:38.439 cutting their Mexico trips because they're concerned about getting you know, 0:23:38.520 --> 0:23:41.960 sort of hauled off by the drug lords or caught 0:23:42.000 --> 0:23:44.560 in a firefight. I think it's much more of a 0:23:44.640 --> 0:23:49.000 concern for the companies that are operating in those areas, 0:23:49.040 --> 0:23:51.920 for whom you know, a shakedown is real. It's also 0:23:51.960 --> 0:23:56.000 a huge concern for the mayors and in the localities 0:23:56.040 --> 0:23:58.760 that are running who are getting gunned down. It's a 0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:01.400 huge number of political assassinations across. 0:24:01.240 --> 0:24:05.280 Especially northern in the northern part of the country. Definitely, yeah, still, yeah, 0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:08.280 I still wouldn't recommend a road trip in Mexico. 0:24:08.480 --> 0:24:11.080 No, but I look, I think the big issue is 0:24:11.119 --> 0:24:14.800 that if the United States decides to go in unilaterally 0:24:15.560 --> 0:24:20.280 with drones or with the federal allys and engages in 0:24:20.359 --> 0:24:24.879 strikes that the Mexican government is not cooperating with overtly, 0:24:25.280 --> 0:24:27.879 I think that is a redline for this government and 0:24:27.960 --> 0:24:29.640 for the US Mexico relationship. 0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:33.280 That would be a disaster. Okay, what does that look like. 0:24:34.160 --> 0:24:39.280 I think that trade relations would would take a severe hit. 0:24:39.680 --> 0:24:41.879 I think that she would. I think she'd be in 0:24:42.000 --> 0:24:45.720 very serious trouble unless she immediately hit the Americans back 0:24:45.760 --> 0:24:48.480 and said this won't be tolerated with real consequences, it 0:24:48.480 --> 0:24:51.920 would cause a break. You said that she's handled managed 0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:54.680 Trump better than anybody else pound for pound, we would 0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:56.080 stop saying that immediately. 0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:02.560 Cuba, how how can this regime survive without the help 0:25:02.560 --> 0:25:05.959 of Venezuela. How important was Maduro? Is Maduro is that 0:25:06.000 --> 0:25:08.520 regime to Cuba? 0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:14.240 So it appears that the United States, and I've only 0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:17.280 heard this in the last few hours, so I'd like 0:25:17.359 --> 0:25:20.560 to dig into it, is not going to pressure the 0:25:20.640 --> 0:25:28.720 Mexicans to stop providing oil to Cuba. Marco Rubio recognizes 0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:31.600 that he wants the regime gone, but he also knows 0:25:31.640 --> 0:25:36.280 that they are not exporting the kind of instability across 0:25:36.320 --> 0:25:39.679 the region that Venezuela has, So it doesn't appear that 0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:44.320 there is urgency. And there also isn't a plan that's 0:25:44.359 --> 0:25:48.639 been put together. Yeah, and the plan for Venezuela, which was, 0:25:48.720 --> 0:25:52.160 you know, militarily a very significant plan from an intelligence 0:25:52.160 --> 0:25:55.359 perspective too, that took about six months. So it doesn't 0:25:55.520 --> 0:26:01.359 feel unless the Cuban economy collapses, driving massive, you know, 0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:04.600 sort of unrest on the ground, this doesn't feel like 0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:07.159 something that we're going to be seeing headlines on next week. 0:26:07.720 --> 0:26:10.040 I know, over the last twenty years, the Spanish government 0:26:10.080 --> 0:26:13.760 in particular had been very helpful to Cuba, obviously the Venezuelans. 0:26:14.240 --> 0:26:18.639 I mean, it does seem as if that who invests in. 0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:22.360 Cuba these days, who has been helping them the most? Yeah, well, 0:26:22.400 --> 0:26:28.360 I mean Venezuela has been significant and Mexico has been significant. 0:26:28.359 --> 0:26:31.000 Those are the two largest countries in the region that 0:26:31.040 --> 0:26:34.080 have been propping them up. And of course, with Venezuela 0:26:34.920 --> 0:26:38.320 essentially having been blockaded and now with the oil being 0:26:38.359 --> 0:26:43.080 taken over by the United States, one assumes that that 0:26:43.840 --> 0:26:46.639 has been cut off, and it would be cut off 0:26:46.680 --> 0:26:49.160 from Mexico if the Americans demanded it. So I think 0:26:49.200 --> 0:26:52.119 it's a question of you know, the how and the when, 0:26:52.760 --> 0:26:55.439 as opposed to the weather. I can't see Trump in 0:26:55.520 --> 0:26:58.440 office for four years with Rubio as Secretary of State 0:26:58.880 --> 0:27:02.600 having taken out Maduro, allowing the Cuban regime to persist 0:27:02.600 --> 0:27:04.160 that that does not seem likely to me. 0:27:04.480 --> 0:27:06.240 And I had a friend of mine just tell me 0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:11.479 that the that the constituency that he is becoming enamored 0:27:11.520 --> 0:27:14.919 with the most are the living Bay of Pigs guys 0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.720 that have become a staple at mar A Lago. Now, 0:27:18.760 --> 0:27:20.879 part of that, I've always said, I think part of 0:27:21.240 --> 0:27:24.800 you know, Trump is Trump has been inaugurated as a 0:27:24.840 --> 0:27:27.000 real South Floridian at mar A Lago over the last 0:27:27.600 --> 0:27:30.160 seven years. And I don't think people understand the extent 0:27:31.000 --> 0:27:34.119 of Marco Rubio's education of Donald Trump in the world 0:27:34.119 --> 0:27:38.080 of the exile politics, and that now he is, you know, 0:27:38.200 --> 0:27:40.440 he's on a first Dame basis with all those surviving 0:27:40.480 --> 0:27:43.240 Bay of Pigs guys. And I'm with you one hundred 0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:47.400 thousand percent. He he sees that as a legacy opportunity 0:27:47.800 --> 0:27:51.080 in Cuba, looks weak enough to make it not that hard, 0:27:51.200 --> 0:27:53.520 although these things always are harder than they love. 0:27:53.920 --> 0:27:56.320 I mean, this does not mean to me that Rubio 0:27:56.600 --> 0:27:58.960 is the slam dunk for twenty twenty eight or anything. 0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:02.760 But I just I can't see once you've embraced the 0:28:02.840 --> 0:28:08.439 Donroe Doctrine as your priority region, and it's not just Trump. 0:28:08.800 --> 0:28:12.760 The National Security Strategy Document in December, you know, sort 0:28:12.800 --> 0:28:17.480 of anticipated all of this before the Venezuela operations. I 0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:20.040 don't see how you leave Cuba alone. 0:28:20.480 --> 0:28:22.399 So let me throw a question that I got the 0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:24.520 other day and I didn't have a great answer for it, 0:28:25.160 --> 0:28:28.480 which is Haiti. You know, for all of the tumult 0:28:28.640 --> 0:28:31.440 in our hemisphere, that's one place that Trump doesn't want 0:28:31.440 --> 0:28:32.160 anything to do with. 0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:33.880 Now. 0:28:33.920 --> 0:28:36.480 The person asked the question, if there were more resources 0:28:36.520 --> 0:28:39.440 that were important to us on the island of Hispaniola, 0:28:39.720 --> 0:28:42.320 would we be more engaged with what's happening on the 0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:48.440 Haitian side of the mountain. You know, look in fairness 0:28:48.440 --> 0:28:52.000 to Trump, you know, a lot of presidents haven't been 0:28:52.000 --> 0:28:55.800 able to figure out the Haitian problem. 0:28:55.920 --> 0:29:00.800 Yeah they're not. I mean, it's massive gang violence, it's 0:29:01.120 --> 0:29:03.120 massive human predation. 0:29:03.160 --> 0:29:05.440 Are we still outsourcing this to the Kenyans and hoping 0:29:05.480 --> 0:29:06.040 they can prevent? 0:29:06.120 --> 0:29:09.520 I mean, they're they're the peacekeepers on the ground. There's 0:29:09.560 --> 0:29:13.880 been some American money, some Canadian money, and some policing, 0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:19.320 but support and training, But the United States, this being 0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:24.880 right in America's backyard and Biden administration has done nothing 0:29:24.920 --> 0:29:28.640 on it. Trump administration has done nothing on it. I 0:29:28.720 --> 0:29:31.880 mean of course that the top concern is making sure 0:29:31.920 --> 0:29:34.040 that Haitians can't make it to the US and sending 0:29:34.080 --> 0:29:36.880 them back when they do. But aside from that, there's 0:29:36.920 --> 0:29:40.080 a big not our problem. And you would you one 0:29:40.120 --> 0:29:43.800 would think this would be more important in the context 0:29:43.800 --> 0:29:44.880 of the Donro doctrine. 0:29:44.920 --> 0:29:47.800 I was just gonna say, if you believe it right now, 0:29:48.280 --> 0:29:50.719 As as a South Floridian, I can tell you the 0:29:50.720 --> 0:29:53.000 Haitians don't have the political power that the Cubans do, 0:29:53.160 --> 0:29:55.480 not even close. And you know, they don't have. 0:29:55.480 --> 0:29:58.320 The business community. They're not in they're not the mara 0:29:58.360 --> 0:29:59.320 Alago members and. 0:29:59.440 --> 0:30:01.760 The Refever, if they could get into mar A Lago, 0:30:02.520 --> 0:30:07.280 perhaps people there are supposed to be elections in Haiti. 0:30:07.320 --> 0:30:09.040 The likelihood that happens this year. 0:30:09.160 --> 0:30:10.280 Seems close to zero. 0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:15.880 Yeah, all right, Greenland, I'm staying geographic here, stay in 0:30:15.880 --> 0:30:18.240 a geographics stay in the hemisphere or the edge of 0:30:18.240 --> 0:30:21.480 the what is Greenland western hemisphere or not? No, no, but. 0:30:22.320 --> 0:30:27.080 It is now. It is now. That is the point. 0:30:27.240 --> 0:30:31.320 What what's the you've got to people will pay you. 0:30:31.800 --> 0:30:33.960 And I say this not in some sort of meaning 0:30:34.040 --> 0:30:36.720 like you're a you're a consulting company, and you know 0:30:36.880 --> 0:30:39.200 you're you're there to help people, Like, what's the most 0:30:39.280 --> 0:30:42.880 likely scenario here? So what's the most likely scenario of 0:30:42.920 --> 0:30:48.880 Greenland's relationship to the United States? January twentieth, twenty twenty nine. 0:30:52.720 --> 0:30:59.640 So the the likelihood of an actual US military invasion 0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:05.320 to hate Greenland strikes me as staggeringly low. That would 0:31:05.400 --> 0:31:09.920 that would end NATO. It would be incredibly believe, right, 0:31:10.200 --> 0:31:13.360 and it was incredibly unpopular in the United States. It 0:31:13.360 --> 0:31:16.720 would also be incredibly unpopular in Greenland, frankly, and you know, 0:31:17.040 --> 0:31:19.479 why would you want to deal with that? Right? But 0:31:19.480 --> 0:31:21.880 but you know, that's like saying, what's the likelihood of 0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:25.160 the Russians sending tanks into the Baltics? That's not the 0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:27.880 way they get what they want, right, They use all 0:31:27.920 --> 0:31:31.120 sorts of asymmetric warfare, and the Americans would have a 0:31:31.120 --> 0:31:34.600 lot more carrots to use, because look, what they want 0:31:35.000 --> 0:31:38.960 is to come up with a plan that Trump will 0:31:38.960 --> 0:31:44.880 approve that has you know, an information campaign and all 0:31:44.920 --> 0:31:50.560 sorts of money being thrown at them and coercion that 0:31:50.760 --> 0:31:54.400 would get the Greenlanders to want to have a referendum 0:31:55.080 --> 0:32:00.160 to leave Denmark and join the United States. Now, what 0:32:00.280 --> 0:32:03.920 is the likelihood that such a thing could be successful. 0:32:04.680 --> 0:32:08.040 We have no idea if it was, you know, held today, 0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:11.960 it would you know, get defeated very very soundly. 0:32:12.440 --> 0:32:16.120 But we have only fifty seven thousand constituents to buy off, 0:32:16.280 --> 0:32:18.920 not that many, right, you might buy them off. And 0:32:18.960 --> 0:32:20.920 it sounds like Trump thinks there's a chance to buy 0:32:20.960 --> 0:32:21.360 him off. 0:32:21.600 --> 0:32:24.360 Sure, sure he does. And he also loves the idea 0:32:24.400 --> 0:32:27.920 of painting that island, you know, Trump Landia. I mean, 0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:31.120 he's his entire life is about putting his name on stuff, 0:32:32.280 --> 0:32:35.720 and whether it was buildings in the on the Upper 0:32:35.720 --> 0:32:39.320 West Side that he doesn't own, or whether it's the 0:32:39.440 --> 0:32:44.440 Kennedy Center or whether it's Greenland. Now, now, you know, 0:32:45.120 --> 0:32:48.280 if you talk to the people in the national security 0:32:48.360 --> 0:32:53.400 space in the Trump administration, most of them will say, 0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:56.000 you can get a lot of what you need, and 0:32:56.040 --> 0:32:59.720 there are real security concerns by negotiating with Denmark and 0:32:59.720 --> 0:33:03.280 green then, but not everything. And so there is there 0:33:03.360 --> 0:33:05.560 is a little bit of a real argument here, and 0:33:05.760 --> 0:33:07.960 of course it's being developed because Trump is telling them 0:33:07.960 --> 0:33:09.920 to So for example, sure, you know, what is. 0:33:09.880 --> 0:33:11.600 That I was just going to say, what's the real 0:33:12.040 --> 0:33:14.080 because this is not He's not the first president that 0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:16.360 is one of this. There's I think we all see 0:33:16.400 --> 0:33:22.720 the strategic uh need potentially and obviously with with thanks 0:33:22.720 --> 0:33:24.480 to climate change, the Arctics is going to be a 0:33:24.480 --> 0:33:27.880 battleground for resources and all sorts of things. So I 0:33:28.480 --> 0:33:30.960 you know, the strategic need is there. But but what 0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:32.640 is it that we couldn't get from a treaty? 0:33:32.800 --> 0:33:36.120 So, I mean a few things. One the argument would 0:33:36.160 --> 0:33:41.160 be that in particular, if it comes to stationing offensive weapons, 0:33:41.720 --> 0:33:45.760 as the Russians and and even the Chinese become more assertive, 0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:48.840 aggressive and present in the area, that's something that the 0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:54.200 Greenlanders under Danish rule and with their own autonomy, would 0:33:54.560 --> 0:34:01.600 would not want that. That also be slower pro bureaucratically 0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:06.000 of getting agreements to allow you even to have defensive 0:34:06.000 --> 0:34:10.160 and intelligence. We don't have NAT outposts there now, Yeah, 0:34:10.200 --> 0:34:12.400 that is one outpost there with like one hundred and 0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:14.520 fifty people there in the Cold War, of course is 0:34:14.560 --> 0:34:16.400 more like fifteen thousands, So I mean it would be 0:34:16.520 --> 0:34:19.880 very easy to ramp it up. But there are real, 0:34:20.840 --> 0:34:24.719 albeit small and I think manageable, but still issues. And 0:34:24.760 --> 0:34:29.000 there's another issue which is kind of more existential, and 0:34:30.200 --> 0:34:32.839 it's a cute argument to use, but I get it, 0:34:33.320 --> 0:34:36.800 which is that, well, you know, how much would the 0:34:36.880 --> 0:34:41.399 Russians or Chinese believe the Americans would defend the territory 0:34:41.520 --> 0:34:46.200 of an ally as opposed to territory that belongs to themselves, 0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:50.000 and especially given that Trump is undermining the belief in 0:34:50.160 --> 0:34:52.839 US led collective security. Like you've got the Baltics that 0:34:53.480 --> 0:34:56.279 aren't convinced that America would necessarily go to bad for 0:34:56.320 --> 0:34:59.680 them if need be. So if Greenland is still a 0:34:59.719 --> 0:35:03.960 part of Denmark, well, yeah it's NATO, but would America 0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:07.160 really defend it. Where if it's America, you know they'll 0:35:07.200 --> 0:35:10.680 defend it as America. It's a weird argument because, of course, 0:35:10.719 --> 0:35:14.120 again Trump is undermining it himself. But I do kind 0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:20.759 of understand the existential logic having said all of those things, Chuck, 0:35:21.040 --> 0:35:25.160 I don't want to give the audience the wrong idea. Overwhelmingly, 0:35:26.000 --> 0:35:29.239 this is Trump deciding I have to have my name 0:35:29.239 --> 0:35:31.400 on this thing. This is a legacy issue for me. 0:35:31.520 --> 0:35:35.520 Is the most consequential American president in history. It's not 0:35:35.600 --> 0:35:38.040 like he cared about it on his first term, and 0:35:38.080 --> 0:35:41.319 those issues were all present during his first term. 0:35:41.840 --> 0:35:47.520 Right, is there a price that the Danes would say, well, 0:35:47.640 --> 0:35:48.680 we can't say no to that. 0:35:50.360 --> 0:35:56.200 This is not only panicking the Danes and the Nordics, 0:35:56.760 --> 0:36:00.279 but it's making them incredibly angry, like with Canada and 0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:01.680 unlike with Latin Americas. 0:36:01.760 --> 0:36:04.000 So it's a boomerang. It's an anti Americanism is. 0:36:04.400 --> 0:36:09.920 Causing permanent damage to the US relationship with Europe, permanent damage. 0:36:10.000 --> 0:36:15.160 The Americans throwing the Ukrainians under the bus on many instances, 0:36:15.200 --> 0:36:19.480 and the Europeans coming back and also paying for it themselves. 0:36:20.480 --> 0:36:26.560 The Americans promoting eurosceptic parties, including in Germany the AfD, 0:36:26.760 --> 0:36:30.160 which many Germans consider to be a neo Nazi party, 0:36:31.280 --> 0:36:36.080 the Greenland issue. There are so many instances where the 0:36:36.120 --> 0:36:41.640 Europeans today consider the Americans fundamentally unreliable. And I think 0:36:41.680 --> 0:36:43.520 this is going to cause permanent damage to the. 0:36:43.560 --> 0:36:47.920 Relationship it already had. I mean, yeah, there's no coming 0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:50.799 I mean and that, and I'm gonna save this to 0:36:50.880 --> 0:36:53.040 the end. But it's sort of like, it doesn't sound 0:36:53.160 --> 0:36:55.560 like a change of administrations just flips a switch. 0:36:55.640 --> 0:36:58.360 This time, not this time, not this time. 0:36:58.920 --> 0:37:04.120 All right, let's move to Iran. You know, I know 0:37:04.239 --> 0:37:07.520 that a regime falls. It's like the definition of bankruptcy 0:37:07.600 --> 0:37:10.359 first it's slowly, then it's quickly, right like we knew 0:37:10.400 --> 0:37:12.239 Syria would fall, We knew a Sod would fall, we 0:37:12.280 --> 0:37:14.480 just don't know when. And all of a sudden one day, 0:37:14.520 --> 0:37:17.120 Oh my god, as Sod's gone. Right, he's in Russia. 0:37:17.120 --> 0:37:21.520 It's over. And I have a feeling it's like this. 0:37:21.680 --> 0:37:24.600 I was in Abu Dhabi about a month ago. It's 0:37:24.640 --> 0:37:28.360 a huge Iranian diaspora there, and the optimism that the 0:37:28.400 --> 0:37:31.480 regime is going to fall was through the roof then, 0:37:31.719 --> 0:37:36.160 and this was pre protests. Do you think this regime 0:37:36.239 --> 0:37:37.160 last the calendar year? 0:37:37.680 --> 0:37:41.399 I would love to say that it does it. I'd 0:37:41.480 --> 0:37:44.000 love to see the back of this regime so incredibly 0:37:44.080 --> 0:37:48.200 repressive of its own people and exporting so much instability 0:37:49.000 --> 0:37:55.000 with bad actors around the region. Hamas has the Lah others. 0:37:56.080 --> 0:38:01.279 But it feels to me like they still have very 0:38:01.400 --> 0:38:06.360 significant capacity to repress, and I haven't yet seen cracks 0:38:06.400 --> 0:38:10.720 inside the regime itself. The Supreme Leader is incredibly old. 0:38:10.719 --> 0:38:13.200 He's mid eighties. I think he's like eighty six now. 0:38:13.320 --> 0:38:18.040 He's quite he's quite frail, he's ailing, he's had it 0:38:18.080 --> 0:38:22.080 seems like he's had cancer that he's dealing with but 0:38:22.840 --> 0:38:27.000 he's hand selected all of the top security officials, and 0:38:27.000 --> 0:38:30.920 they don't seem to be in any way backing away 0:38:30.960 --> 0:38:37.200 from him. We've seen no climb down. Despite American pressure 0:38:38.000 --> 0:38:42.400 for the IRGC, the Islamic revolution of Guard Core and 0:38:42.440 --> 0:38:45.200 the besiege the paramilitary group under them that does the 0:38:45.560 --> 0:38:51.160 head knocking and the shooting, we've seen no willingness of 0:38:51.239 --> 0:38:54.200 them to say no to orders or back away. The 0:38:54.320 --> 0:38:58.960 repression has been very extensive. And that's that's included technical 0:38:59.719 --> 0:39:02.840 press in terms of you know, shutting down electricity, shutting 0:39:02.920 --> 0:39:07.520 down the internet, and the rest and enforcements across the 0:39:07.560 --> 0:39:14.960 country despite very different regional you know makeups, ethnic makeup, 0:39:15.000 --> 0:39:19.040 and the rest in different parts of irun So and 0:39:19.160 --> 0:39:23.560 the United States, as much as Trump has said, you know, 0:39:22.960 --> 0:39:27.480 you better behavior else We're going to hit you. So far, 0:39:27.600 --> 0:39:30.880 the plans for what the US might do seem to 0:39:30.920 --> 0:39:35.080 be pretty pinpoint and symbolically, I mean, I expect at 0:39:35.080 --> 0:39:37.799 some point actually some military strikes for the US. 0:39:37.880 --> 0:39:40.080 What would that look like and what could be effective? 0:39:40.520 --> 0:39:42.759 Oh well, what it would look like and what could 0:39:42.760 --> 0:39:45.040 be effective or two different things. So one what it 0:39:45.080 --> 0:39:47.000 would look like. I mean, right now, it looks like 0:39:47.040 --> 0:39:49.280 it's going to be the US going after the police, 0:39:49.320 --> 0:39:53.320 the US going after the paramilitary forces directly, not taking 0:39:53.360 --> 0:39:56.920 out the supreme leader. I'd like to see them be 0:39:57.000 --> 0:40:00.320 a little more creative than that. You know, for exams sample, 0:40:01.160 --> 0:40:05.239 you have all of these judges that are serving the 0:40:05.320 --> 0:40:10.480 regime and are handing down sentences without any evidence, no 0:40:10.640 --> 0:40:14.279 rule of law, innocent people that are being sentenced to 0:40:14.360 --> 0:40:20.279 horrible jails, time or death, and those judges have never 0:40:20.320 --> 0:40:24.799 been targeted, and frankly they should be. They are instruments 0:40:24.800 --> 0:40:27.759 of terror in the Iranian regime. You know, the Israelis 0:40:27.800 --> 0:40:31.040 have targeted nuclear scientists. No one's after gone after the 0:40:31.040 --> 0:40:34.600 people that are actually sending civilians to their death. That 0:40:34.719 --> 0:40:37.560 strikes me is you know, you go after them, you 0:40:37.600 --> 0:40:41.960 go after some of these softer points that allow a 0:40:43.040 --> 0:40:51.080 dictatorship of theocracy to unleash terror within the country. Maybe 0:40:51.200 --> 0:40:53.479 you start to unravel it a little bit. But again, 0:40:53.480 --> 0:40:55.880 if if you were asking me to make a bet, 0:40:56.360 --> 0:40:59.279 are they gone, Are they gone in five years, Yeah, 0:40:59.280 --> 0:41:01.719 they're gone in three years probably? Are they gone in 0:41:01.800 --> 0:41:06.000 like six months? That's a harder call for me. Right 0:41:06.040 --> 0:41:11.000 now doesn't feel imminent, especially because on the ground I mean, 0:41:11.040 --> 0:41:17.240 there's a lot of support inside Iran for Razapaalabi, who's 0:41:17.280 --> 0:41:19.919 the one that's saying I want you all out there demonstrating, 0:41:20.000 --> 0:41:25.160 but there's no real organization of an opposition movement inside 0:41:25.200 --> 0:41:26.000 Iran itself. 0:41:29.920 --> 0:41:33.560 Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from 0:41:33.640 --> 0:41:36.680 personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away. 0:41:36.719 --> 0:41:39.120 We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in 0:41:39.160 --> 0:41:43.520 the best shape. My mother single mother, now widow. Myself 0:41:43.640 --> 0:41:45.400 sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to 0:41:45.440 --> 0:41:48.600 pay for college and lo and behold. My dad had 0:41:48.680 --> 0:41:51.840 one life insurance policy that we found. It wasn't a lot, 0:41:52.200 --> 0:41:54.879 but it was important at the time, and it's why 0:41:55.000 --> 0:41:58.239 I was able to go to college. Little did he 0:41:58.320 --> 0:42:02.080 know how important that would be in that moment. Well, 0:42:02.200 --> 0:42:04.319 guess what. That's why I am here to tell you 0:42:04.320 --> 0:42:07.239 about Ethos Life. They can provide you with peace of 0:42:07.280 --> 0:42:10.680 mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst 0:42:10.719 --> 0:42:13.680 comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes 0:42:13.719 --> 0:42:17.360 getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect 0:42:17.360 --> 0:42:21.400 your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process, 0:42:21.480 --> 0:42:25.160 and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam 0:42:25.200 --> 0:42:28.400 require you just answer a few health questions online. You 0:42:28.400 --> 0:42:30.200 can get a quote in as little as ten minutes, 0:42:30.239 --> 0:42:33.280 and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving 0:42:33.440 --> 0:42:36.239 your home. You can get up to three million dollars 0:42:36.280 --> 0:42:38.440 in coverage, and some policies start as low as two 0:42:38.480 --> 0:42:41.640 dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of 0:42:41.640 --> 0:42:44.840 March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number 0:42:44.840 --> 0:42:49.200 one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect 0:42:49.200 --> 0:42:52.600 your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free 0:42:52.680 --> 0:42:56.359 quote at ethos dot com slash chuck. So again, that's 0:42:56.440 --> 0:43:01.480 Ethos dot com slash chuck. Location times may vary, and 0:43:01.520 --> 0:43:04.239 the rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, 0:43:04.640 --> 0:43:07.600 life insurance is something you should really think about, especially 0:43:07.960 --> 0:43:16.799 if you've got a growing family. Somebody indicated to me 0:43:16.840 --> 0:43:21.000 that they thought the president was quietly. Somebody said it 0:43:21.080 --> 0:43:25.279 sort of so that the president sort of is prepared to 0:43:25.320 --> 0:43:29.720 become the Gorbacheff of Iran, and I thought, I'll believe 0:43:29.719 --> 0:43:30.440 it when I say it. 0:43:30.840 --> 0:43:35.799 I mean, he's weak. He is more of a centrist 0:43:36.040 --> 0:43:39.680 in the Iranian context than was expected when those presidential 0:43:39.680 --> 0:43:44.680 elections occurred. But I mean, he is seen as a 0:43:44.680 --> 0:43:49.320 failed figure. The economy has utterly collapsed under his rule. 0:43:49.400 --> 0:43:51.000 He engaged in a. 0:43:50.920 --> 0:43:53.439 Whole pultable water in Tehran right now. 0:43:54.880 --> 0:43:58.320 Yeah, they've got a massive water crisis in the capitol 0:43:59.280 --> 0:44:03.799 and he he was supporting behind the scenes talks with 0:44:03.880 --> 0:44:08.239 the Americans, and that's happening again through Oman and they're 0:44:08.320 --> 0:44:12.680 good offices, but the Supreme Leader has stopped anything from happening. 0:44:12.680 --> 0:44:15.120 So I don't know that the president possession would be 0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:18.760 useful in really driving a different outcome. 0:44:19.160 --> 0:44:22.319 Are we stretched a little thin right now with Venezuela, 0:44:22.440 --> 0:44:25.600 with what we're doing in Syria, with what to douce 0:44:25.719 --> 0:44:28.120 more in Iran? Would are we prepared if we wanted 0:44:28.120 --> 0:44:30.319 to do something, could we do it immediately? Or do 0:44:30.320 --> 0:44:33.840 we actually have a little bit because of this Venezuela exercise. 0:44:34.840 --> 0:44:37.719 The B two's are all been you know, they're all 0:44:37.800 --> 0:44:42.560 repositioned Diego Garcia. There's massive amount of firepower and readiness 0:44:43.000 --> 0:44:45.080 to engage in those strikes. If that's what you do. 0:44:45.160 --> 0:44:47.480 You could also send them from like Montana if you 0:44:47.560 --> 0:44:50.880 really needed to, right we did Americans have that capacity Again, 0:44:51.120 --> 0:44:53.840 if you're not talking about boots on the ground and 0:44:54.080 --> 0:44:57.000 actual regime change with an ability to execute on it. 0:44:57.040 --> 0:45:01.359 The limitations of the US military suddenly how much much less. 0:45:01.360 --> 0:45:04.120 So I don't want to like get ahead of ourselves, 0:45:04.200 --> 0:45:05.880 But what would this mean for a rock. 0:45:08.440 --> 0:45:13.120 It would mean that a significant constraint on their government 0:45:14.360 --> 0:45:19.759 and the lever that has prevented them from working more 0:45:19.800 --> 0:45:25.160 effectively with the big powers in the region would be gone. 0:45:25.680 --> 0:45:27.960 And I think that that would be a useful thing 0:45:28.000 --> 0:45:29.560 for a Rocky economic. 0:45:29.200 --> 0:45:32.720 I mean, you know, you paid a picture. It's like God, 0:45:32.840 --> 0:45:35.240 you know, if a run, if this regime went away, 0:45:35.880 --> 0:45:38.759 maybe Syria could thrive, Maybe Lebanon could thrive, Maybe I 0:45:38.840 --> 0:45:41.640 Rock could thrive. Right like feels like it's steady. I mean, 0:45:41.640 --> 0:45:45.000 are we're being too optimistic about what would happen after 0:45:45.040 --> 0:45:46.640 the fall of this regime. 0:45:47.040 --> 0:45:52.279 Well, we've seen that Saudi Arabia, you know, which we've 0:45:52.320 --> 0:45:56.560 thought of as a twenty years ago, even ten years ago, 0:45:57.000 --> 0:46:03.520 as an enormously conservative and pretty repressive monarchy, and today 0:46:04.000 --> 0:46:09.520 I mean truly revolutionary in the positive sense, for young people, 0:46:09.640 --> 0:46:13.560 for women participating in the economy, for tourism becoming a 0:46:13.600 --> 0:46:16.680 real part of GDP tourism in Saudi Arabia, like no 0:46:16.680 --> 0:46:19.160 one was talking about that ten years ago, and now 0:46:19.200 --> 0:46:22.160 it's increasingly becoming a world class destination. 0:46:22.760 --> 0:46:25.120 Still probably go to Abu Dhabi or Dubai before ryadd 0:46:25.160 --> 0:46:26.239 but still you know, go for it. 0:46:26.239 --> 0:46:30.640 But Alula is now becoming a world class must do destination, 0:46:30.719 --> 0:46:33.319 which is in Saudi Arabia, and if you haven't heard 0:46:33.360 --> 0:46:35.600 of it yet, you will within another year or two. 0:46:35.880 --> 0:46:41.040 So definitely they're putting real effort into that. And yeah, 0:46:41.080 --> 0:46:43.040 it's going to be for tourists in the region first, 0:46:43.040 --> 0:46:45.200 but then it's going to be from all over the world. 0:46:45.320 --> 0:46:49.880 So you know, I think that don't underestimate what energy, 0:46:49.920 --> 0:46:54.160 wealth and some technocrats can accomplish given level of control. 0:46:54.400 --> 0:46:56.440 And of course what you have in Saudi Arabia and 0:46:56.480 --> 0:46:59.280 the Emirates in particular, I mean cut it is tiny, 0:46:59.760 --> 0:47:04.680 but you have, you know, very strong centralized control and 0:47:04.800 --> 0:47:07.920 all you need is the ability to support a reform process, 0:47:08.239 --> 0:47:11.560 which they didn't have before. The Emiratis went first, and 0:47:11.600 --> 0:47:13.720 now the Saudis are fast following. 0:47:16.320 --> 0:47:22.239 Maybe Nan Yahoo. You know, it's interesting. I remember there's 0:47:22.239 --> 0:47:25.839 a poll right before the ceasefire which said as soon 0:47:25.840 --> 0:47:31.320 as there's a ceasefire, sixty percent of Israelis wanted him out. 0:47:31.680 --> 0:47:33.799 I don't see a path for him to be out 0:47:33.840 --> 0:47:35.960 anytime soon. But what's your sense. 0:47:36.800 --> 0:47:39.320 I think that it's going to be a very close 0:47:39.400 --> 0:47:44.640 run election. Israel is a fragmented multi party system where 0:47:44.680 --> 0:47:50.320 coalition building is extremely hard and also very opaque until 0:47:50.360 --> 0:47:53.960 after you have the votes in. We could easily He's 0:47:54.000 --> 0:47:59.399 an incredibly talented tactician in election math and management. He's 0:47:59.440 --> 0:48:02.480 also very charismatic and being able to convince people that 0:48:02.560 --> 0:48:06.440 he can give them the world and that others along that. So, 0:48:06.880 --> 0:48:09.920 I mean, it's really hard to count him out. But 0:48:10.400 --> 0:48:13.040 he could absolutely not be a part of the next 0:48:13.080 --> 0:48:16.960 government in Israel. I think that that is that is 0:48:17.080 --> 0:48:20.200 plausible as we look, are plausible this time than there 0:48:20.200 --> 0:48:23.279 has been in quite some time, probably, And and you know, 0:48:23.840 --> 0:48:27.480 the fact is that normalization with Saudi Arabia, once BB 0:48:27.719 --> 0:48:31.560 is gone is absolutely on the table. Then you can 0:48:31.600 --> 0:48:35.600 move ahead with Phase two, which BB opposes, but which 0:48:35.760 --> 0:48:38.000 you know you could actually move on. 0:48:38.160 --> 0:48:38.359 Now. 0:48:38.600 --> 0:48:41.880 The Israelis don't support a Palestinian state anymore, there is 0:48:41.920 --> 0:48:44.239 no there's no support for that in the population as 0:48:44.280 --> 0:48:48.879 a whole, but there is support for I think among 0:48:48.920 --> 0:48:53.160 the majority of the population for the peace plan that 0:48:53.360 --> 0:48:57.920 actually passed the Security Council, the American peace Plan that 0:48:58.040 --> 0:49:00.000 past the Security count This, this is probably the most 0:49:00.120 --> 0:49:05.040 improbable foreign policy win by the United States in the 0:49:05.080 --> 0:49:07.759 first year of Trump, because the US went from being 0:49:07.800 --> 0:49:14.319 completely isolated by pretty much everyone for supporting a war 0:49:14.360 --> 0:49:18.040 that was considered ethnic cleansing by the vast majority of 0:49:18.080 --> 0:49:22.360 the world's governments and populations, with massive humanitarian damage and 0:49:22.440 --> 0:49:26.320 tens of thousands of Palestinians killed kids, right, all huge 0:49:26.360 --> 0:49:30.800 humanitarian outrage. And then suddenly Trump got all the countries 0:49:30.840 --> 0:49:34.680 in the region together and during the United Nations and 0:49:34.840 --> 0:49:38.040 said We're going to make a ceasefire happen. And everyone 0:49:38.239 --> 0:49:40.920 passes it in the Security Council except the Russians and 0:49:41.000 --> 0:49:42.360 Chinese who abstain. 0:49:43.080 --> 0:49:45.960 You know, it's fascinating about Trump with this. I've said this. 0:49:46.120 --> 0:49:49.400 You know, he's the last person you'd want to negotiate 0:49:49.440 --> 0:49:51.080 with Europe, but he might be the only person you 0:49:51.120 --> 0:49:53.640 want negotiating in the Middle East. In a weird way, 0:49:54.040 --> 0:49:57.799 his style, his transactional nature. Look, I don't think he 0:49:57.880 --> 0:50:01.520 cares about BB, and BB's gonna find this out. And 0:50:02.400 --> 0:50:06.800 but in a weird way, he speaks the same language, 0:50:07.000 --> 0:50:10.600 and and he's it works there. It doesn't work in 0:50:10.640 --> 0:50:11.320 a lot of other. 0:50:11.200 --> 0:50:13.680 Parts of the world, but he's so popular there. Weirdly 0:50:13.719 --> 0:50:17.719 went to the Kanesset and spoke there. I mean, the 0:50:17.840 --> 0:50:21.839 ovations that he was getting popular from the not it's 0:50:21.880 --> 0:50:24.719 not even close. I mean, he's unpopular, and rightfully so. 0:50:25.120 --> 0:50:28.799 But Trump is wildly popular, very popular across because he's 0:50:28.840 --> 0:50:32.040 delivered for them. He's the one that moved the American 0:50:32.080 --> 0:50:35.960 embassy to Jerusalem after so many presidents Democrat Republican promised 0:50:35.960 --> 0:50:39.200 and then didn't deliver. He's the one that recognized the 0:50:39.239 --> 0:50:43.120 goal on Heights as part of Israel, which another president, 0:50:43.239 --> 0:50:47.480 other presidents wouldn't do. So he has delivered for the israelis. 0:50:48.840 --> 0:50:51.680 No, which is why he he alone, might be the 0:50:51.719 --> 0:50:55.200 person which may in its own way, why the world. 0:50:55.080 --> 0:50:57.759 Sort OF's like, Okay, you can get this done, go 0:50:57.840 --> 0:51:01.799 do it right. Yeah, Being clearly he was more more 0:51:01.880 --> 0:51:05.560 capable of pressuring Israel when he felt like it, and 0:51:05.600 --> 0:51:06.120 he did. 0:51:08.520 --> 0:51:09.439 This to China. 0:51:09.520 --> 0:51:11.960 Will this be like that kind of foreign policy victory 0:51:11.960 --> 0:51:15.800 in his legacy not? I think not. If if bb wins, 0:51:15.880 --> 0:51:18.200 if he's he's part of the coalition because I think 0:51:18.200 --> 0:51:22.960 that again, what Trump really wants is the Saudi normalization, 0:51:23.160 --> 0:51:26.920 and I's gone, you can't do that until you end 0:51:27.000 --> 0:51:30.879 the Israeli occupation of guys that you create some reconstruction. 0:51:31.560 --> 0:51:32.920 I don't think it has to be a state, but 0:51:32.960 --> 0:51:36.360 there has to be some kind of self governance with 0:51:36.520 --> 0:51:40.880 security provided by outsiders but not Israel, and that just 0:51:41.040 --> 0:51:43.560 I don't think that can happen as long as BB 0:51:43.760 --> 0:51:46.279 is there. And let's also keep in mind that the 0:51:46.320 --> 0:51:50.839 settlements in the West Bank are expanding and BB's far 0:51:50.960 --> 0:51:55.480 right allies are pushing that and not Yahoo is supporting it. 0:51:55.920 --> 0:52:02.040 Yep. I don't know how you unwind that. 0:52:00.000 --> 0:52:02.239 So that I think that that those are facts on the. 0:52:02.200 --> 0:52:06.279 Ground, and I don't know it's a I've been in 0:52:06.360 --> 0:52:11.880 plenty of conversations with a certain monarch who touches that 0:52:11.960 --> 0:52:14.759 West Bank. I mean some things, the toothpastes out of 0:52:14.760 --> 0:52:15.640 the tube. 0:52:15.520 --> 0:52:18.759 Yeah yeah, I mean, how many millions of Palestinians are 0:52:18.800 --> 0:52:22.480 living in Jordan now and the right of return, Yeah, 0:52:22.520 --> 0:52:25.040 that is never happening. Remember there was a deal that 0:52:25.280 --> 0:52:29.480 Jared Broker that got you before the Abraham Accords, that 0:52:29.600 --> 0:52:32.480 I mean was a lot less territory for the Palestinians 0:52:33.000 --> 0:52:36.760 than they would have had with the previous Camp David accords. 0:52:37.239 --> 0:52:42.160 And yet you know was couldn't get done, non starter 0:52:42.280 --> 0:52:45.040 for the Palestinians, and still reflected much more than they 0:52:45.040 --> 0:52:49.560 have now. And that's the problems, the power asymmetries between 0:52:49.600 --> 0:52:53.240 the Palestinians and the Israelis, and between the entire axis 0:52:53.239 --> 0:52:56.160 of resistance in the Israelis, including Iran and the Israelis. 0:52:56.520 --> 0:53:00.480 The Israelis have the military capabilities and the wherewithal. 0:53:00.480 --> 0:53:02.160 No they're going to be able to dictate the terms 0:53:02.200 --> 0:53:02.840 of the surrender. 0:53:03.000 --> 0:53:05.399 It's funny. Ant Yahoo just came out today, I don't 0:53:05.400 --> 0:53:07.680 know if you saw that and said he really wants 0:53:07.719 --> 0:53:13.160 to end the Israeli reliance on all of the American 0:53:13.280 --> 0:53:15.600 foreign aid in the next ten years. He doesn't want 0:53:15.600 --> 0:53:19.279 any more defense support. He wants the belief and the 0:53:19.320 --> 0:53:22.200 support of the American people the American government, but he 0:53:22.239 --> 0:53:24.920 doesn't want the money. I mean, I will believe that 0:53:25.000 --> 0:53:29.640 when it happens. But it's interesting because he understands that 0:53:29.719 --> 0:53:32.680 the relying on the American taxpayers has been such an 0:53:32.760 --> 0:53:36.160 incredible populous push in the US, and the US has 0:53:36.360 --> 0:53:39.400 ended that for you know, almost. 0:53:39.160 --> 0:53:42.880 Everybody else around them phebe if BB Well, nobody's done 0:53:42.920 --> 0:53:46.319 more damage Daser's reputation in the United States than Bbnanya 0:53:47.320 --> 0:53:49.879 left and right for we can say some of it. 0:53:50.160 --> 0:53:52.279 He's on him for sure. Whatever it is, he has 0:53:52.400 --> 0:53:55.799 not helped the situation, particularly in. 0:53:55.760 --> 0:53:57.360 His very divisive figure. 0:53:57.440 --> 0:54:01.759 Yeah, particularly, and I think how he handled let's move 0:54:01.800 --> 0:54:09.960 to Ukraine. Yeah, it feels as if, let me ask you, 0:54:10.000 --> 0:54:13.279 this is Trump going to be fine if the Europeans 0:54:13.320 --> 0:54:15.719 take the lead in helping the Ukrainians. And does he 0:54:15.840 --> 0:54:18.800 just sort of has he given up on Putin? Because 0:54:18.880 --> 0:54:21.000 I get the sense he's thinking about giving up on Putin. 0:54:21.239 --> 0:54:23.600 I mean, yeah, but you probably would have had that 0:54:23.760 --> 0:54:28.400 sense occasionally on several occasions over the last six months. Right, 0:54:28.440 --> 0:54:31.000 He's he's kind of moved in that direction, and then 0:54:31.080 --> 0:54:34.400 he backs off. He does ready to hit the Ukrainians 0:54:34.440 --> 0:54:36.279 again because they're weak and see if you can get 0:54:36.280 --> 0:54:38.239 more out of them. He wants to end the war. 0:54:38.880 --> 0:54:41.880 He's failed to end the war. It's mostly because the 0:54:41.960 --> 0:54:45.080 Russians are giving him nothing. He's put a little bit 0:54:45.080 --> 0:54:48.799 of pressure on Russia, but far more pressure on the Ukrainians. 0:54:49.200 --> 0:54:52.919 But the interesting thing is that the Europeans are now 0:54:52.960 --> 0:54:57.960 spending all the money. So for Trump to cut off Ukraine, well, 0:54:58.040 --> 0:55:02.640 that would have to tell the America can military industrial complex, 0:55:03.080 --> 0:55:06.440 you are no longer allowed to sell weapons to the Europeans. 0:55:07.360 --> 0:55:12.400 Well wait a minute, but intelligence sharing, intelligence sharing still happening, right, yeah, yeah, 0:55:12.480 --> 0:55:15.560 But I mean if that were cut off, that would 0:55:15.560 --> 0:55:16.120 be a big deal. 0:55:16.160 --> 0:55:19.279 Not as small it would it would absolutely it is 0:55:19.719 --> 0:55:24.239 less of a complete game changer than having the ammunition 0:55:25.080 --> 0:55:28.279 and having the missiles and all the rest. But the 0:55:28.320 --> 0:55:33.040 reality is that the United States is going to continue 0:55:33.520 --> 0:55:36.640 to provide those weapons. They're going to continue to allow 0:55:36.640 --> 0:55:39.400 the Europeans to buy them and transfer them to Ukraine, 0:55:39.400 --> 0:55:41.840 and that allows the Ukrainians to continue to fight. And 0:55:41.880 --> 0:55:45.080 that's a pretty big deal. So the Americans are going 0:55:45.120 --> 0:55:49.680 to continue to be complicit, fully complicit in Ukraine's defense, 0:55:50.080 --> 0:55:53.040 and as long as that is true, you can't really 0:55:53.120 --> 0:55:55.600 have a US Russia deal. So Trump has kind of 0:55:55.600 --> 0:55:58.960 been cut off by the Europeans. The Europeans have bought 0:55:59.000 --> 0:56:02.360 themselves a seat at the table. They bought themselves a 0:56:02.480 --> 0:56:08.640 veto on Trump's ability to drive full capitulation of the Ukrainians, 0:56:09.200 --> 0:56:13.239 and that forces Trump to squeeze the Russians a little 0:56:13.239 --> 0:56:15.640 bit more if he wants to try to get a ceasefire, 0:56:15.719 --> 0:56:19.520 like he has on telling the Indians to stop buying 0:56:19.960 --> 0:56:24.240 Russian oil or else there won't be a US India 0:56:24.400 --> 0:56:28.760 trade deal. And Mukesh Ambani in reliance just stopped buying 0:56:28.880 --> 0:56:32.400 Russian crude in the last few weeks for example. So 0:56:32.440 --> 0:56:35.440 it's it's meaningful, it's it's causing some some pain to 0:56:35.440 --> 0:56:36.440 the Russians. 0:56:37.440 --> 0:56:40.759 What's some you know, we've we've there's been a lot 0:56:40.800 --> 0:56:43.400 of speculation that that that the longer this war goes, 0:56:43.440 --> 0:56:47.600 that eventually it would create internal descent in Russia. In Russia, 0:56:49.719 --> 0:56:52.680 you know, you hear anecdotal we'll see a report here 0:56:52.760 --> 0:56:57.319 or there. One would assume that now more people know 0:56:57.400 --> 0:57:00.200 somebody killed in this war than they did yesterday, day 0:57:00.280 --> 0:57:03.040 and the day before, et cetera. Yeah, what's your sense 0:57:03.120 --> 0:57:07.960 in your sources of sort of of of the level 0:57:08.320 --> 0:57:12.720 of discouragement in the Russian populace over this war not. 0:57:12.600 --> 0:57:16.920 Seeing anything meaningful. I mean, we've seen a couple of 0:57:17.080 --> 0:57:21.800 saw one former general that came out publicly and talked 0:57:21.800 --> 0:57:23.800 about what a kind of disaster this was. The sort 0:57:23.840 --> 0:57:25.720 of thing that you hear some people say internally but 0:57:25.760 --> 0:57:28.080 never publicly. That was a little surprising some of the 0:57:28.480 --> 0:57:32.600 bloggers who are quite patriotic talking about the fact that 0:57:32.600 --> 0:57:35.160 the Russian military is not performing as well as it 0:57:35.200 --> 0:57:36.800 should for examples a little that. 0:57:37.520 --> 0:57:41.080 Yeah, there's sometimes more criticism from his right, you haven't 0:57:41.080 --> 0:57:43.280 been strong enough, you haven't been aggressive enough. 0:57:43.400 --> 0:57:46.760 Yeah, yeah, but within the population not so much. Now 0:57:46.800 --> 0:57:49.920 the economy I think less about the Russians that are 0:57:49.920 --> 0:57:52.320 getting killed, although there are a lot of them. They're 0:57:52.360 --> 0:57:55.600 not from Moscow, they're not from Petersburg. They're from you know, 0:57:55.680 --> 0:57:58.320 sort of areas that are going to cause much less trouble, 0:57:59.200 --> 0:58:01.360 and they're prisoners. 0:58:00.880 --> 0:58:04.160 That's that was obviously done on purpose, right, he doesn't 0:58:04.200 --> 0:58:07.479 want people at Moscow or Saint Petersburg to get first 0:58:07.480 --> 0:58:08.520 time glimpses of But I do. 0:58:08.480 --> 0:58:11.080 Think the Russian economy is starting to take more of 0:58:11.280 --> 0:58:17.000 a hit as a consequence of low oil prices and 0:58:17.240 --> 0:58:21.960 the squeeze from all of these sanctions, especially the energy sanctions. 0:58:22.240 --> 0:58:25.360 So it does. I do think it matters, But I 0:58:25.400 --> 0:58:29.360 also think that ultimately the Ukrainians are having a harder 0:58:29.400 --> 0:58:32.280 time of it in terms of maintaining this level of fighting, 0:58:32.880 --> 0:58:36.040 and I think that the Europeans are having a harder 0:58:36.080 --> 0:58:37.960 time if we look over the next two three years, 0:58:37.960 --> 0:58:41.320 the fact that everything you've asked me about Greenland, everything 0:58:41.360 --> 0:58:44.560 we've talked about America squeezing the Europeans as well. If 0:58:44.600 --> 0:58:47.840 you're Putin, if I'm advising Putin, I'm telling him double 0:58:47.920 --> 0:58:50.800 down on pressure in Europe because you concause maybe your 0:58:50.840 --> 0:58:53.280 big crag, Yeah, you might be able to crack. 0:58:53.960 --> 0:59:00.440 Well, that's an interesting is there? Who of our By the. 0:59:00.440 --> 0:59:03.040 Way, I'm sorry, but I've got I'm going to have 0:59:03.080 --> 0:59:04.200 to go in like four minutes. 0:59:04.240 --> 0:59:06.240 Just okay, all right, let me get you out of here. 0:59:06.240 --> 0:59:10.440 On two questions. Question one is this, who's the most 0:59:10.480 --> 0:59:13.880 secure leader in Europe right now? In the sort of 0:59:13.920 --> 0:59:17.040 the western part of your you know, the sort of 0:59:17.120 --> 0:59:18.440 the G seven allies? 0:59:20.240 --> 0:59:24.680 The most secure? I mean in the Italian Maloney is 0:59:24.720 --> 0:59:30.720 probably the most popular among the major economies right now, 0:59:30.720 --> 0:59:34.120 and France seems like it's a mess. Italian governments used 0:59:34.120 --> 0:59:36.200 to fall apart every few months. 0:59:35.960 --> 0:59:39.160 Right now, that's that the French National Assembly says, hey, 0:59:39.240 --> 0:59:41.200 we hold our champagne, We'll do this now. 0:59:41.320 --> 0:59:45.440 Yeah, I mean the Macron's not going anywhere because the 0:59:45.800 --> 0:59:48.160 general elections are twenty twenty seven. Everyone's going to wait 0:59:48.200 --> 0:59:50.920 for that. But they've been you know, governments that they've had, 0:59:50.960 --> 0:59:53.960 like multiple prime ministers that mess. Yeah, yeah, I mean 0:59:54.080 --> 0:59:57.200 Germany is I guess you'd say Germany is more stable 0:59:57.280 --> 1:00:03.120 because you know, grand coalition multi party system. Understand they 1:00:03.160 --> 1:00:07.840 benefit from the EU, and yet the parties in that 1:00:08.000 --> 1:00:11.920 system disagree on so much that it's become very dysfunctional. 1:00:12.440 --> 1:00:17.760 And as the German economy continues to underperform, the AfD 1:00:18.040 --> 1:00:21.600 on the right and dur Linka on the left continue 1:00:22.000 --> 1:00:24.280 to do quite well. This year they're going to be 1:00:24.360 --> 1:00:26.960 five state elections in Germany. I expect the far right 1:00:27.040 --> 1:00:30.640 is going to do very well. So, I mean, there's 1:00:30.680 --> 1:00:33.440 no great answer for that question, is what I'm telling you. 1:00:33.760 --> 1:00:36.040 All right, And one year from now is going to 1:00:36.040 --> 1:00:37.240 be twenty twenty seven, and. 1:00:37.280 --> 1:00:40.040 The Greece is probably the country that's doing the best 1:00:40.080 --> 1:00:44.960 because they've had post Grexit, they've had great, great, strong government. 1:00:45.160 --> 1:00:48.640 It's fascinating to see the southern European countries have an 1:00:48.640 --> 1:00:51.240 economic boom after having such a disaster and have to 1:00:51.240 --> 1:00:54.080 be built out by the Germans. Yeah, back in that 1:00:54.200 --> 1:00:57.400 long ago, very quickly. Next year is supposed to be 1:00:57.440 --> 1:01:00.800 the year that China takes Taiwan. Where are we at? 1:01:01.320 --> 1:01:04.400 What is your expectation and do you expect Donald Trump 1:01:04.440 --> 1:01:05.200 to stand in the way. 1:01:06.560 --> 1:01:11.920 I think that the Chinese and the Americans have both 1:01:12.000 --> 1:01:16.160 understand that a level of stabilization of that relationship is 1:01:16.160 --> 1:01:19.720 good for them after the big fights that they had 1:01:19.880 --> 1:01:23.960 on tariffs and export controls and licensing last year. And 1:01:24.040 --> 1:01:28.880 I think that means that Chinese understand that an invasion 1:01:28.920 --> 1:01:33.160 of Taiwan would be really, really bad. If Americans are 1:01:33.200 --> 1:01:35.800 screwing up in so many areas long term, don't get 1:01:35.840 --> 1:01:40.440 in their way and you know, make hay in other places. 1:01:40.720 --> 1:01:44.480 So I could see the Chinese testing Taiwan on certain 1:01:44.520 --> 1:01:50.800 issues like bigger exercises and maybe a coastguard boarding a ship, 1:01:50.920 --> 1:01:54.520 you know sort of thing, maybe some political and economic pressure, 1:01:55.440 --> 1:01:59.200 but not that's very different from an invasion. Nothing that 1:01:59.240 --> 1:02:04.040 would be an action enforcing event or an embarrassment for 1:02:04.200 --> 1:02:05.439 the US administration. 1:02:05.920 --> 1:02:09.320 But if we're embracing sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere, 1:02:09.600 --> 1:02:11.600 how is that? How does Beijing not see that as 1:02:11.640 --> 1:02:12.840 a right? 1:02:13.000 --> 1:02:15.640 I mean we're on the one hand, we are. On 1:02:15.720 --> 1:02:18.760 the one hand, the Western Hemisphere is not the limit 1:02:18.880 --> 1:02:22.240 of American ambitions in the world. It is a prioritization. 1:02:22.920 --> 1:02:27.680 On the other hand, American military dominance in the Western 1:02:27.680 --> 1:02:33.640 Hemisphere does not relate easily with Chinese commercial dominance with 1:02:33.800 --> 1:02:38.960 most of the countries outside of the US and Canada 1:02:39.040 --> 1:02:42.439 and Mexico, and that's not going to change anytime soon. 1:02:42.520 --> 1:02:45.840 So I think the sphere of influence argument is overstated. 1:02:47.000 --> 1:02:51.440 Ian bremer Man, I always appreciate this steward to force that. 1:02:51.480 --> 1:02:53.680 Thanks a lot of fun to do. Let me do. 1:02:54.240 --> 1:02:57.080 I love traveling the world with you. Who knows someday 1:02:57.080 --> 1:02:59.080 we met actually do it in person. Good luck in Davos. 1:02:59.120 --> 1:03:00.440 It'd be a lot of my fun on jeeus. The 1:03:00.440 --> 1:03:02.920 fact that Trump goes to Davos is that clearly that 1:03:02.960 --> 1:03:04.160 an American president goes. 1:03:04.760 --> 1:03:06.760 Oh well, I mean the sense that the Americans are 1:03:06.760 --> 1:03:08.880 going to be meeting with so many different leaders around 1:03:08.920 --> 1:03:11.080 the world. The communication is good, but if you watch 1:03:11.160 --> 1:03:13.160 how the how the heads of state and how the 1:03:13.200 --> 1:03:17.400 CEOs comport themselves publicly with him, it is very different 1:03:17.400 --> 1:03:19.040 from the way they talk privately. And that is a 1:03:19.040 --> 1:03:20.800 big part of the problem. 1:03:21.440 --> 1:03:23.920 Oh well, that's why we have you and your tremendous 1:03:23.920 --> 1:03:27.840 newsletter that is available for free. Even it's it's tremendous 1:03:27.880 --> 1:03:30.400 G zero. Uh and boy you have said we live 1:03:30.400 --> 1:03:34.000 in a G zero world. Yeah, well we're there now. Congrats, 1:03:34.280 --> 1:03:35.320 now we are there now. 1:03:35.360 --> 1:03:36.680 Thanks Chuck, good brother.