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Speaker 1: unsettled do you feel about the globe? How unsettled do

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Speaker 1: you feel about American politics? Obviously, of the year I

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Speaker 1: team twenty twenty six, a year of living dayangerously, I think,

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Speaker 1: whether it's what we saw in Minnesota feels like we're

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Speaker 1: a spark away from something not good in this country,

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Speaker 1: and we have a world that feels unsettled everywhere, whether

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Speaker 1: it's Venezuela, whether it's Iron, whether it's Taiwan, whether it's Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Well you get the picture. So who better to bring

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Speaker 1: in to talk about all the risk and the year

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Speaker 1: of living dangerously than my Friendie and Bremer of your

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Speaker 1: Raisier group and Ian.

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Speaker 2: Look you you.

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Speaker 1: I started off a bit glum for the year, and

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Speaker 1: you had you played a big role in that. Your annuals,

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Speaker 1: your annual risk list of top risks out there, frankly,

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Speaker 1: only reinforced what I think what was already I was

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Speaker 1: sort of seeing domestically, and certainly I sort of refer

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Speaker 1: to myself these days as a political anthropologist when it

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Speaker 1: comes to domestic politics. But you've got your pulse on

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Speaker 1: international political science as well. So you painted a picture

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Speaker 1: of Look, I want to quote Doc Brown in a

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Speaker 1: back to the future, where we're going there are no roads.

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Speaker 1: I don't know where we're going, but I know there

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Speaker 1: are no roads, and we're headed somewhere that by the

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Speaker 1: end of this year you and I may meet up again,

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Speaker 1: going holy shit, how did we get here?

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Speaker 2: I mean this, It's not like there isn't good news

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Speaker 2: out there, right. I mean, for example, last twenty years,

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Speaker 2: most of the people I know in the international affairs

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Speaker 2: space thought that we were heading towards US China confrontation,

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Speaker 2: new Cold war, you know, could could lead to something

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Speaker 2: even worse than that. That that's not where we are, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean the.

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Speaker 1: Right. And I also think when we can talk about

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Speaker 1: Iron for a minute, we're about to see a Middle

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Speaker 1: East that maybe.

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Speaker 2: A whole new world.

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Speaker 1: In a in a good way.

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Speaker 2: Maybe maybe I'd love to see that. I think we're

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Speaker 2: still We're still farther from that than i'd like us

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Speaker 2: to be. There's a lot of capacity and willingness to repress,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of Ronnie and civilians that are dead

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Speaker 2: today that weren't a week ago. But still, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's not like everything in the world is blowing up,

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Speaker 2: and the response to the United States is not purely destructive.

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Speaker 2: I mean, frankly, you know, the EU and Mercasoor just

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Speaker 2: did one of the world's largest free trade deals that

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Speaker 2: wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for Trump, because they're.

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Speaker 1: I talked about this the last time I had you on.

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Speaker 1: I think Donald Trump's making Europe great again. Well, I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't go down, I think, Well, but the point what

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Speaker 1: I what I mean by it is Europe needed to stop.

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Speaker 2: Relying on the United States, so they need a kick

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Speaker 2: in the ass and fear that they're still not going

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Speaker 2: to make it.

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Speaker 1: But yes, I agree, and Donald Trump's presidency turned out

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Speaker 1: to be the kick of the ass that at least

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Speaker 1: they find noticed.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is definitely that kick in the ass. I

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Speaker 2: think that's clear. I think that's clear for the Europeans,

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Speaker 2: for the Canadians, for the Mexicans, for some for the

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Speaker 2: remaining regime in Venezuela. I mean, my god, he represents

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Speaker 2: a kick in the ass to an awful lot of people.

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Speaker 2: But of course, you know, the big thing is that

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Speaker 2: the uncertain We have seen the uncertainty, we've seen the risk,

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Speaker 2: and he is us, right, I mean, that is that

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Speaker 2: is the reason why.

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Speaker 1: That's what's so. But that's not even you know, it's funny.

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Speaker 1: You made it your top risk. And yet I feel

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Speaker 1: like two years ago, if you had done that, it

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Speaker 1: would have seen controversial, It would have been weird if

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Speaker 1: we weren't the top risk. Right, shocking, Right, we are

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Speaker 1: at the center of everybody else's instability.

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Speaker 2: Yep, yep, yep, no questions.

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Speaker 1: A weird place for America to be, yep.

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Speaker 2: But in part it is the logical conclusion of decades

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Speaker 2: of Americans of different stripes increasingly saying we don't like

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Speaker 2: the role that we have carved out for our selfs globally,

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Speaker 2: we don't really believe in it in different ways, whether

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Speaker 2: it's foreign aid or promotion of rule of law and democracy,

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Speaker 2: or free trade or collective security alliances, all these wars.

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Speaker 2: So that that's a big piece of it, right, And

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Speaker 2: then there's the domestic piece too, with two completely different

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Speaker 2: worldviews housed in one country. Right. And you know when

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Speaker 2: those things start to really break, when those assumptions are

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Speaker 2: fundamentally questioned by a guy who is, you know, thrives

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Speaker 2: on being a chaos actor, then it's not a surprise

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Speaker 2: that we're.

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Speaker 1: Driving that uncertain Let's start in our hemisphere and then move.

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Speaker 1: So one of the things I like to correct with

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Speaker 1: some of my friends on the left actually is that

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Speaker 1: there hasn't been regime change in Venezuela. The regime is

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Speaker 1: still in power. Yes, right, they've only extracted one individual.

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Speaker 1: How do we get to individuals? Don't disparage the wife.

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Speaker 2: Like that enough?

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Speaker 1: Where how do we get to a better place in

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Speaker 1: Venezuela without American boots on the ground.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, let's face it, getting to a better

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Speaker 2: Venezuela with American boots on the ground might be more challenging, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, given our recent experience in Venezuela is not Iraq, right,

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Speaker 2: It's not Afghanistan, It has recent experience with democracy, it

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Speaker 2: doesn't have massive internal sectarian divides. There are a lot

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Speaker 2: of exiled elites that would love to be able to

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Speaker 2: come back, and the power asymmetries are massive with the

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Speaker 2: United States right there in the hemisphere, right, So, I mean,

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Speaker 2: there are lots of reasons to believe that at least

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Speaker 2: in the near term, they are going to behave eve

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Speaker 2: themselves more because they understand the orls they are going to.

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Speaker 2: They're going to listen to the Americans on oil. They

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Speaker 2: have freed a small number of political prisoners, but high

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Speaker 2: level prisoners, by the way, leaders of in the opposition movement,

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Speaker 2: because Marco Rubio and others told them they had to. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, the early days on this are without American troops,

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Speaker 2: but with the credibility and presence of all of that

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Speaker 2: military capacity, and with the willingness to prod the IMF

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Speaker 2: to provide some support over time and get some private

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Speaker 2: sector companies with guarantees to actually back them up, that

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Speaker 2: there are reasons why in the near term this will

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Speaker 2: go well. The much more the problem with Venezuela is

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Speaker 2: much more about when start talking about actual power sharing,

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Speaker 2: which the people want, you know, Frankly, Marco and others

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Speaker 2: around Trump, even if Trump doesn't care, they want it,

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Speaker 2: and yet the government, the existing regime will resist that

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Speaker 2: with every sinew of their body.

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Speaker 1: My concern is that Trump doesn't care about the democracy piece.

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Speaker 1: If the regime does what he asks, he's going to

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Speaker 1: be fine with leaving them in place.

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Speaker 2: Well, but I'm suggesting that that won't work right. In

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Speaker 2: other words, that when you have when you have that

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Speaker 2: many people in the country that now see a weaker,

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Speaker 2: more vulnerable military that's been bloodied up by the US,

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Speaker 2: and they overwhelmingly want their opposition in place, they will

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Speaker 2: clamor for it. That when you have a lot of

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Speaker 2: MAGA supporters in Mara A Lago who are themselves exiles,

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Speaker 2: that's a strong community. They're going to be pushing for it.

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Speaker 2: Marco and others that really did organize the TikTok on

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Speaker 2: these attacks also they want it. And so I don't

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Speaker 2: even though Trump Trump's the decider. Trump's got the power,

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Speaker 2: he's the president, and he doesn't care. I agree he

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Speaker 2: doesn't care about what kind of regime it is. But

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Speaker 2: I think that he can't. He can't just ignore that issue.

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Speaker 1: Do you see it? Like we help that there's elections

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Speaker 1: in six months a year? What's your you know, is

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Speaker 1: there anybody thinking about this? Like okay, when what's the soonest?

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Speaker 1: We could actually hold national elections?

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Speaker 2: Soonest is probably six months? More realistic is twelve to eighteen.

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Speaker 2: And again, as they start talking about it, and it

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Speaker 2: won't be the first thing they discuss, but as they

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Speaker 2: get to that process, what I think we will see

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Speaker 2: is an effort by the military to give on many

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Speaker 2: other grounds and obfuse gate, which is what they've done before.

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Speaker 2: Reasons why it can't be done soon, and here are

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Speaker 2: the mechanisms, and here are some candidates we can't tolerate,

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Speaker 2: and all sorts of ways to push out, water down

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Speaker 2: and ensure that they are the ones that control everything.

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Speaker 2: But ultimately, I'm not going to sit here and tell

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Speaker 2: you a power sharing agreement is impossible. You couldn't just

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Speaker 2: bring in the opposition and tell the military you're out.

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Speaker 2: But then again, we all know that Paul Bremer doing

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Speaker 2: that in a rock that was a disaster. Like removing

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Speaker 2: the Bathists, removing the security and the military forces was

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Speaker 2: what the US should have never done, never done.

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Speaker 1: There are a handful of intriguing elections this year in

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Speaker 1: Latin America, Columbia, Colombia is fascinating to me, in Brazil

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Speaker 1: or probably the two big ones. There's Peru as well.

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Speaker 1: How much will anti Americanism be part of those campaigns? Now?

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Speaker 1: And you know my great fear is, look, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm. I have a friend who does a lot

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Speaker 1: of work in Colombia has not been a big fan

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Speaker 1: of this. This political party is hopeful that the other

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Speaker 1: political party comes back. And I know that a lot

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Speaker 1: of American business folks feel that way. And it looks

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Speaker 1: like that had been a glide path. But now I

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Speaker 1: wonder does Trump and does our involvement in Venezuela spark

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Speaker 1: a backlash in a Colombia spark a backlash? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: No, and it doesn't. So it's a good it's a

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Speaker 2: really good question, especially because we've seen that backlash change

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Speaker 2: outcomes in Canada. We've seen that backlash change outcomes in

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Speaker 2: Australia in both cases is and I.

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Speaker 1: Would argue Lula's political standing has been strengthened due to Trump.

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Speaker 2: A little bit, a little bit much less so, but

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Speaker 2: a little bit definitely after Trump, you know, sort of

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Speaker 2: basically said we're tariffing you because of the bull jail

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Speaker 2: term that was handed down by the Supreme Court. Not

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Speaker 2: not Lula, right, but but actually in Latin America, in

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Speaker 2: these countries, number one issue overwhelmingly right now is domestic security,

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Speaker 2: and and that plays out so bole in l Salvador

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Speaker 2: is by far the most popular leader, even though he's

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Speaker 2: a pro Trump guy. He's not popular because he's pro Trump.

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Speaker 2: He's popular because he's actually really like wielded the fists

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Speaker 2: in creating security. And one could argue he's broken a

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Speaker 2: lot of eggs to make that omelet right.

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Speaker 1: A lot of guys, I'll uh, you'll appreciate this. I

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Speaker 1: teach a for USC here in DC. That's called how

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Speaker 1: Washington works. And last semester I had a an nol

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Speaker 1: Salvadorian student who said, yeah, boy, my parents and I

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Speaker 1: don't speak about Bouqueta anymore. Like it was just like

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Speaker 1: she said, basically, if you live in al Salvador.

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Speaker 2: You love the guy.

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Speaker 1: If you don't live there, you don't and you're El

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Speaker 1: Salvador and you don't like the guy. It's a it's

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Speaker 1: a fascinating it's.

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Speaker 2: Like ninety percent local approval, and it's it's true approval, right,

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Speaker 2: And it's.

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Speaker 1: Just because she does. Look, it was so unsafe, right,

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Speaker 1: it was so.

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Speaker 2: When Maduro gets taken out, and he is not just

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Speaker 2: a bad guy, but he is actually coordinating narco cartels

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Speaker 2: right across the region, and he also did lead to

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Speaker 2: the destabilization of a lot of countries, including Colombia because

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Speaker 2: of eight million displaced Venezuelans. They are delighted to see

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Speaker 2: the back of Maduro and they want security in their

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Speaker 2: own countries. So I and the secondary issue is the

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Speaker 2: local economy. So I don't think there's a backlash. Mexico

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Speaker 2: is a different story because it's so integrated with the

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Speaker 2: US and their economy is not doing well though Shanebaum

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Speaker 2: is actually quite popular. But for Columbia and for Brazil,

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Speaker 2: I don't actually think that the Trump factor will be

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Speaker 2: determinative and either of them.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's been interesting. It's sort of like I and

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Speaker 1: this is where you sometimes have cross currents. There does

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Speaker 1: seem to be a general move you know, and we've

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Speaker 1: seen this in Latin America. It's like a windshield wiper

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Speaker 1: when suddenly, you know, five countries move left, then five

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Speaker 1: countries move.

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Speaker 2: Right, you know, and I feel like there's a right

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Speaker 2: word pull right now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But in Columbia,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Petro got into that big spat with Trump,

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Speaker 2: and apparently the Trump administration was like literally had targets

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Speaker 2: and they were ready to engage in the lateral strikes.

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Speaker 2: And then Petro calls Trump and he pretends that like

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Speaker 2: he'd been begging for that call for weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and he.

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Speaker 2: Made it sound as if, oh, I didn't even know

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Speaker 2: Trump was gonna call me, and so thank god I

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Speaker 2: wasn't laid for it. But I mean, you know, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna get together and it's going to be wonderful, and

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Speaker 2: you know, suddenly their buddies. Because he's been personally sanctioned

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Speaker 2: by by the United States, right, and it's a problem

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Speaker 2: for him. He really wanted the the other side of

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Speaker 2: get the other side of that potential conflict, and I

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Speaker 2: think the likelihood that his preferred candidate on the left

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Speaker 2: can get through a second round is. It's there, but

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Speaker 2: it's it's very low. You would expect to string.

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Speaker 1: You know, you don't fear that anti Americanism could suddenly

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Speaker 1: prop that left disc government.

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Speaker 2: Nope, Nope, it's not playing out in any of the

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Speaker 2: polls right now, not at all. And Brazil I think

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Speaker 2: is going to be a close election and it's going

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Speaker 2: to be Bolsonaro's kid, right it looks that way. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's just going to be a fascinating putting forward fight.

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Speaker 2: And they're now thinking about who his running mate for

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Speaker 2: vice president would be. But I would say they still

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Speaker 2: want to see how he's going to do over the

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Speaker 2: next couple months before they all line up behind him.

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Speaker 2: So it's likely to be Flavio bolscenario. Keep in mind

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Speaker 2: that his father, the former president, has had a lot

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Speaker 2: of health issues recently, and you know, if he ends

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Speaker 2: up really not being able to be a strong, live

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Speaker 2: political force, things could change very quickly.

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Speaker 1: How's Lula's health, He's been there a long time.

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Speaker 2: Seems to be okay. I mean he's what in his

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Speaker 2: eighties now, he doesn't even keep a smartphone. I mean

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Speaker 2: he's like, you know, the way he does his work

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Speaker 2: and the way he's briefed is so twentieth century. It's

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Speaker 2: kind of shocking that he's running the largest economy in

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Speaker 2: South America, but he's decided he wants to run again.

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Speaker 2: I think it's criminal negligence for him to be running

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Speaker 2: for another full term basically because of his age. Yeah

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Speaker 2: and all of that. Yeah, absolutely, but very much that

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Speaker 2: Biden situation. Biden situation, I mean all across subs are

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Speaker 2: in Africa. I mean a lot of places where people

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Speaker 2: should know. This is a huge issue all over Africa,

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Speaker 2: that's for sure.

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Speaker 1: Let's move to Claudia Shinbaum because one of the comments

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Speaker 1: that didn't get a lot of traction over the last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks was when Trump just managed, matter of factly,

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Speaker 1: said well, she doesn't control her own country. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: have to take care of the cartels, and you're and

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Speaker 1: Shinebaum to her. She never overreacts to Trump publicly. She

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Speaker 1: always she is you know, she's in that sense, she's

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Speaker 1: figured out how to manage the personal relationship with him,

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Speaker 1: probably better than any world leader. But I'm curious if

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Speaker 1: you disagree, well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you'd argue that h J and Ping has

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Speaker 2: done the best job managing the Trump relationship back and

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Speaker 2: turns out that's effective. Right, But Cloudia, pound for pound,

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Speaker 2: Cloudy the best job. Yeah, I think that's probably right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, her throw weight is a little smaller in

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Speaker 2: terms of Mexico's asymmetrical disadvantages. But I will say that,

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Speaker 2: like three months ago.

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Speaker 3: You know, the the scuttle but inside the White House was, yeah,

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Speaker 3: we thought we might have to engage in strikes, but

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Speaker 3: they're cooperating so effectively that we probably don't need to now.

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Speaker 2: And that was even Stephen Miller's perspective.

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Speaker 1: Right, it's my assunt, but I understand that in country.

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Speaker 1: I've got a few people I've talked to that say

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Speaker 1: that she seems pretty intent and that she's more serious

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Speaker 1: about it than Amblo was.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes she is, and she is both in terms

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Speaker 2: of the importance of her security. Bona fide is for

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Speaker 2: her own popular support in terms of what she did

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Speaker 2: when she was mayor of Mexico City and the corruption

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Speaker 2: around the Attorney General, the Minister of Justice, excuse me,

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Speaker 2: and others, which she's who she finally forced out, the

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Speaker 2: chief prosecutor. And also because she understands the she's very

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Speaker 2: vulnerable to the Americans if she doesn't shut down the

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Speaker 2: meth labs, if she doesn't, you know, sort of capture

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Speaker 2: a whole bunch of fentanyl. And they have done more,

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Speaker 2: but but is more enough. They are very worried about it,

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Speaker 2: and it certainly seems to me that Trump, that Marco

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Speaker 2: Rubio in particular over the past week since the Venezuela

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Speaker 2: operation have soured on Mexico, is getting this done. Maybe

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Speaker 2: this is over confidence because of Venezuela and the focus

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Speaker 2: on the Donroe doctrine. Maybe it's because there there isn't

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Speaker 2: as much cooperation as they really want. Maybe it's because

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Speaker 2: they're they're worried about the economy and the rest in

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Speaker 2: the US. They want to show some more wins. But

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Speaker 2: definitely that noise has increased.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't she have a I mean, tourism is.

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Speaker 2: So important to the Mexican economy, and.

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Speaker 1: The perception in this country is that Mexico is not.

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Speaker 2: As not safe. Doesn't she wants Americans to believe things

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Speaker 2: are safe?

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Speaker 1: There Isn't that good.

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Speaker 2: Ef the perception. I mean, when you think about it

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Speaker 2: depends on how you pray. Sure, But I mean, do

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Speaker 2: we really think that Cancun is a problem. No?

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Speaker 1: And I've always been told that the reason why Cabo

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Speaker 1: and Cancun aren't a problem is because the cartels own

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Speaker 1: the hotels in those areas and that's the money. That's

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Speaker 1: how they launder the money, and they know they don't

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Speaker 1: want to kill the golden goose, so I have that's

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Speaker 1: how That's how I've had folks reassure.

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Speaker 2: Me about Cabo. Put it that way, okay, But tuloom,

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know my Coba even Mexico City, I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, Guadalajara, I mean Wahaka. I mean the friends

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Speaker 2: of mine from all walks of life, from working class

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Speaker 2: to super rich, have not been you know, sort of

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Speaker 2: cutting their Mexico trips because they're concerned about getting you know,

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Speaker 2: sort of hauled off by the drug lords or caught

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Speaker 2: in a firefight. I think it's much more of a

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Speaker 2: concern for the companies that are operating in those areas,

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Speaker 2: for whom you know, a shakedown is real. It's also

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Speaker 2: a huge concern for the mayors and in the localities

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Speaker 2: that are running who are getting gunned down. It's a

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Speaker 2: huge number of political assassinations across.

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Speaker 1: Especially northern in the northern part of the country. Definitely, yeah, still, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I still wouldn't recommend a road trip in Mexico.

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Speaker 2: No, but I look, I think the big issue is

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Speaker 2: that if the United States decides to go in unilaterally

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Speaker 2: with drones or with the federal allys and engages in

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Speaker 2: strikes that the Mexican government is not cooperating with overtly,

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Speaker 2: I think that is a redline for this government and

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Speaker 2: for the US Mexico relationship.

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Speaker 1: That would be a disaster. Okay, what does that look like.

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Speaker 2: I think that trade relations would would take a severe hit.

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Speaker 2: I think that she would. I think she'd be in

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Speaker 2: very serious trouble unless she immediately hit the Americans back

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Speaker 2: and said this won't be tolerated with real consequences, it

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Speaker 2: would cause a break. You said that she's handled managed

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Speaker 2: Trump better than anybody else pound for pound, we would

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Speaker 2: stop saying that immediately.

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Speaker 1: Cuba, how how can this regime survive without the help

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Speaker 1: of Venezuela. How important was Maduro? Is Maduro is that

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Speaker 1: regime to Cuba?

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Speaker 2: So it appears that the United States, and I've only

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Speaker 2: heard this in the last few hours, so I'd like

432
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: to dig into it, is not going to pressure the

433
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 2: Mexicans to stop providing oil to Cuba. Marco Rubio recognizes

434
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 2: that he wants the regime gone, but he also knows

435
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: that they are not exporting the kind of instability across

436
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 2: the region that Venezuela has, So it doesn't appear that

437
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: there is urgency. And there also isn't a plan that's

438
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 2: been put together. Yeah, and the plan for Venezuela, which was,

439
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 2: you know, militarily a very significant plan from an intelligence

440
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 2: perspective too, that took about six months. So it doesn't

441
00:25:55,520 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 2: feel unless the Cuban economy collapses, driving massive, you know,

442
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: sort of unrest on the ground, this doesn't feel like

443
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 2: something that we're going to be seeing headlines on next week.

444
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: I know, over the last twenty years, the Spanish government

445
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: in particular had been very helpful to Cuba, obviously the Venezuelans.

446
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem as if that who invests in.

447
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 2: Cuba these days, who has been helping them the most? Yeah, well,

448
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 2: I mean Venezuela has been significant and Mexico has been significant.

449
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: Those are the two largest countries in the region that

450
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 2: have been propping them up. And of course, with Venezuela

451
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 2: essentially having been blockaded and now with the oil being

452
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 2: taken over by the United States, one assumes that that

453
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 2: has been cut off, and it would be cut off

454
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 2: from Mexico if the Americans demanded it. So I think

455
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: it's a question of you know, the how and the when,

456
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 2: as opposed to the weather. I can't see Trump in

457
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 2: office for four years with Rubio as Secretary of State

458
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: having taken out Maduro, allowing the Cuban regime to persist

459
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 2: that that does not seem likely to me.

460
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: And I had a friend of mine just tell me

461
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:11,479
Speaker 1: that the that the constituency that he is becoming enamored

462
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 1: with the most are the living Bay of Pigs guys

463
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: that have become a staple at mar A Lago. Now,

464
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 1: part of that, I've always said, I think part of

465
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: you know, Trump is Trump has been inaugurated as a

466
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: real South Floridian at mar A Lago over the last

467
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 1: seven years. And I don't think people understand the extent

468
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 1: of Marco Rubio's education of Donald Trump in the world

469
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: of the exile politics, and that now he is, you know,

470
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 1: he's on a first Dame basis with all those surviving

471
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: Bay of Pigs guys. And I'm with you one hundred

472
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 1: thousand percent. He he sees that as a legacy opportunity

473
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: in Cuba, looks weak enough to make it not that hard,

474
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: although these things always are harder than they love.

475
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 2: I mean, this does not mean to me that Rubio

476
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 2: is the slam dunk for twenty twenty eight or anything.

477
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 2: But I just I can't see once you've embraced the

478
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 2: Donroe Doctrine as your priority region, and it's not just Trump.

479
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: The National Security Strategy Document in December, you know, sort

480
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 2: of anticipated all of this before the Venezuela operations. I

481
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 2: don't see how you leave Cuba alone.

482
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 1: So let me throw a question that I got the

483
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: other day and I didn't have a great answer for it,

484
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: which is Haiti. You know, for all of the tumult

485
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: in our hemisphere, that's one place that Trump doesn't want

486
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: anything to do with.

487
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 2: Now.

488
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 1: The person asked the question, if there were more resources

489
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: that were important to us on the island of Hispaniola,

490
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 1: would we be more engaged with what's happening on the

491
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: Haitian side of the mountain. You know, look in fairness

492
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: to Trump, you know, a lot of presidents haven't been

493
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: able to figure out the Haitian problem.

494
00:28:55,920 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 2: Yeah they're not. I mean, it's massive gang violence, it's

495
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 2: massive human predation.

496
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: Are we still outsourcing this to the Kenyans and hoping

497
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: they can prevent?

498
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: I mean, they're they're the peacekeepers on the ground. There's

499
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 2: been some American money, some Canadian money, and some policing,

500
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 2: but support and training, But the United States, this being

501
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: right in America's backyard and Biden administration has done nothing

502
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 2: on it. Trump administration has done nothing on it. I

503
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 2: mean of course that the top concern is making sure

504
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 2: that Haitians can't make it to the US and sending

505
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 2: them back when they do. But aside from that, there's

506
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: a big not our problem. And you would you one

507
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 2: would think this would be more important in the context

508
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: of the Donro doctrine.

509
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, if you believe it right now,

510
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,719
Speaker 1: As as a South Floridian, I can tell you the

511
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: Haitians don't have the political power that the Cubans do,

512
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: not even close. And you know, they don't have.

513
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: The business community. They're not in they're not the mara

514
00:29:58,360 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: Alago members and.

515
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: The Refever, if they could get into mar A Lago,

516
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: perhaps people there are supposed to be elections in Haiti.

517
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: The likelihood that happens this year.

518
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 2: Seems close to zero.

519
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Greenland, I'm staying geographic here, stay in

520
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: a geographics stay in the hemisphere or the edge of

521
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 1: the what is Greenland western hemisphere or not? No, no, but.

522
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: It is now. It is now. That is the point.

523
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 1: What what's the you've got to people will pay you.

524
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: And I say this not in some sort of meaning

525
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 1: like you're a you're a consulting company, and you know

526
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: you're you're there to help people, Like, what's the most

527
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: likely scenario here? So what's the most likely scenario of

528
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: Greenland's relationship to the United States? January twentieth, twenty twenty nine.

529
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 2: So the the likelihood of an actual US military invasion

530
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: to hate Greenland strikes me as staggeringly low. That would

531
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: that would end NATO. It would be incredibly believe, right,

532
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 2: and it was incredibly unpopular in the United States. It

533
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 2: would also be incredibly unpopular in Greenland, frankly, and you know,

534
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,479
Speaker 2: why would you want to deal with that? Right? But

535
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 2: but you know, that's like saying, what's the likelihood of

536
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: the Russians sending tanks into the Baltics? That's not the

537
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 2: way they get what they want, right, They use all

538
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 2: sorts of asymmetric warfare, and the Americans would have a

539
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 2: lot more carrots to use, because look, what they want

540
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: is to come up with a plan that Trump will

541
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 2: approve that has you know, an information campaign and all

542
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 2: sorts of money being thrown at them and coercion that

543
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 2: would get the Greenlanders to want to have a referendum

544
00:31:55,080 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 2: to leave Denmark and join the United States. Now, what

545
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: is the likelihood that such a thing could be successful.

546
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 2: We have no idea if it was, you know, held today,

547
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 2: it would you know, get defeated very very soundly.

548
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: But we have only fifty seven thousand constituents to buy off,

549
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: not that many, right, you might buy them off. And

550
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: it sounds like Trump thinks there's a chance to buy

551
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: him off.

552
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: Sure, sure he does. And he also loves the idea

553
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 2: of painting that island, you know, Trump Landia. I mean,

554
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 2: he's his entire life is about putting his name on stuff,

555
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 2: and whether it was buildings in the on the Upper

556
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 2: West Side that he doesn't own, or whether it's the

557
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: Kennedy Center or whether it's Greenland. Now, now, you know,

558
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 2: if you talk to the people in the national security

559
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: space in the Trump administration, most of them will say,

560
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 2: you can get a lot of what you need, and

561
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 2: there are real security concerns by negotiating with Denmark and

562
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 2: green then, but not everything. And so there is there

563
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 2: is a little bit of a real argument here, and

564
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 2: of course it's being developed because Trump is telling them

565
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 2: to So for example, sure, you know, what is.

566
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: That I was just going to say, what's the real

567
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: because this is not He's not the first president that

568
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: is one of this. There's I think we all see

569
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: the strategic uh need potentially and obviously with with thanks

570
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: to climate change, the Arctics is going to be a

571
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: battleground for resources and all sorts of things. So I

572
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 1: you know, the strategic need is there. But but what

573
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: is it that we couldn't get from a treaty?

574
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 2: So, I mean a few things. One the argument would

575
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 2: be that in particular, if it comes to stationing offensive weapons,

576
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 2: as the Russians and and even the Chinese become more assertive,

577
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 2: aggressive and present in the area, that's something that the

578
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 2: Greenlanders under Danish rule and with their own autonomy, would

579
00:33:54,560 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 2: would not want that. That also be slower pro bureaucratically

580
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 2: of getting agreements to allow you even to have defensive

581
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 2: and intelligence. We don't have NAT outposts there now, Yeah,

582
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 2: that is one outpost there with like one hundred and

583
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 2: fifty people there in the Cold War, of course is

584
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 2: more like fifteen thousands, So I mean it would be

585
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 2: very easy to ramp it up. But there are real,

586
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 2: albeit small and I think manageable, but still issues. And

587
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: there's another issue which is kind of more existential, and

588
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 2: it's a cute argument to use, but I get it,

589
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 2: which is that, well, you know, how much would the

590
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,399
Speaker 2: Russians or Chinese believe the Americans would defend the territory

591
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: of an ally as opposed to territory that belongs to themselves,

592
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 2: and especially given that Trump is undermining the belief in

593
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,839
Speaker 2: US led collective security. Like you've got the Baltics that

594
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 2: aren't convinced that America would necessarily go to bad for

595
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 2: them if need be. So if Greenland is still a

596
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: part of Denmark, well, yeah it's NATO, but would America

597
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 2: really defend it. Where if it's America, you know they'll

598
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 2: defend it as America. It's a weird argument because, of course,

599
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: again Trump is undermining it himself. But I do kind

600
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 2: of understand the existential logic having said all of those things, Chuck,

601
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 2: I don't want to give the audience the wrong idea. Overwhelmingly,

602
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 2: this is Trump deciding I have to have my name

603
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: on this thing. This is a legacy issue for me.

604
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: Is the most consequential American president in history. It's not

605
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: like he cared about it on his first term, and

606
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 2: those issues were all present during his first term.

607
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: Right, is there a price that the Danes would say, well,

608
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 1: we can't say no to that.

609
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 2: This is not only panicking the Danes and the Nordics,

610
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 2: but it's making them incredibly angry, like with Canada and

611
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: unlike with Latin Americas.

612
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 1: So it's a boomerang. It's an anti Americanism is.

613
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 2: Causing permanent damage to the US relationship with Europe, permanent damage.

614
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 2: The Americans throwing the Ukrainians under the bus on many instances,

615
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: and the Europeans coming back and also paying for it themselves.

616
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 2: The Americans promoting eurosceptic parties, including in Germany the AfD,

617
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 2: which many Germans consider to be a neo Nazi party,

618
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: the Greenland issue. There are so many instances where the

619
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: Europeans today consider the Americans fundamentally unreliable. And I think

620
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: this is going to cause permanent damage to the.

621
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 1: Relationship it already had. I mean, yeah, there's no coming

622
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: I mean and that, and I'm gonna save this to

623
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: the end. But it's sort of like, it doesn't sound

624
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: like a change of administrations just flips a switch.

625
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 2: This time, not this time, not this time.

626
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's move to Iran. You know, I know

627
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 1: that a regime falls. It's like the definition of bankruptcy

628
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 1: first it's slowly, then it's quickly, right like we knew

629
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: Syria would fall, We knew a Sod would fall, we

630
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 1: just don't know when. And all of a sudden one day,

631
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: Oh my god, as Sod's gone. Right, he's in Russia.

632
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: It's over. And I have a feeling it's like this.

633
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: I was in Abu Dhabi about a month ago. It's

634
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 1: a huge Iranian diaspora there, and the optimism that the

635
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 1: regime is going to fall was through the roof then,

636
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 1: and this was pre protests. Do you think this regime

637
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 1: last the calendar year?

638
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 2: I would love to say that it does it. I'd

639
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 2: love to see the back of this regime so incredibly

640
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 2: repressive of its own people and exporting so much instability

641
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 2: with bad actors around the region. Hamas has the Lah others.

642
00:37:56,080 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 2: But it feels to me like they still have very

643
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 2: significant capacity to repress, and I haven't yet seen cracks

644
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:10,720
Speaker 2: inside the regime itself. The Supreme Leader is incredibly old.

645
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 2: He's mid eighties. I think he's like eighty six now.

646
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 2: He's quite he's quite frail, he's ailing, he's had it

647
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: seems like he's had cancer that he's dealing with but

648
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 2: he's hand selected all of the top security officials, and

649
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 2: they don't seem to be in any way backing away

650
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 2: from him. We've seen no climb down. Despite American pressure

651
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 2: for the IRGC, the Islamic revolution of Guard Core and

652
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 2: the besiege the paramilitary group under them that does the

653
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 2: head knocking and the shooting, we've seen no willingness of

654
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 2: them to say no to orders or back away. The

655
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: repression has been very extensive. And that's that's included technical

656
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 2: press in terms of you know, shutting down electricity, shutting

657
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 2: down the internet, and the rest and enforcements across the

658
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 2: country despite very different regional you know makeups, ethnic makeup,

659
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 2: and the rest in different parts of irun So and

660
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 2: the United States, as much as Trump has said, you know,

661
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 2: you better behavior else We're going to hit you. So far,

662
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 2: the plans for what the US might do seem to

663
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 2: be pretty pinpoint and symbolically, I mean, I expect at

664
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 2: some point actually some military strikes for the US.

665
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: What would that look like and what could be effective?

666
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: Oh well, what it would look like and what could

667
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: be effective or two different things. So one what it

668
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 2: would look like. I mean, right now, it looks like

669
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 2: it's going to be the US going after the police,

670
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 2: the US going after the paramilitary forces directly, not taking

671
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 2: out the supreme leader. I'd like to see them be

672
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 2: a little more creative than that. You know, for exams sample,

673
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 2: you have all of these judges that are serving the

674
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 2: regime and are handing down sentences without any evidence, no

675
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 2: rule of law, innocent people that are being sentenced to

676
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 2: horrible jails, time or death, and those judges have never

677
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 2: been targeted, and frankly they should be. They are instruments

678
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 2: of terror in the Iranian regime. You know, the Israelis

679
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: have targeted nuclear scientists. No one's after gone after the

680
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: people that are actually sending civilians to their death. That

681
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 2: strikes me is you know, you go after them, you

682
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 2: go after some of these softer points that allow a

683
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 2: dictatorship of theocracy to unleash terror within the country. Maybe

684
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,479
Speaker 2: you start to unravel it a little bit. But again,

685
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 2: if if you were asking me to make a bet,

686
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 2: are they gone, Are they gone in five years, Yeah,

687
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 2: they're gone in three years probably? Are they gone in

688
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 2: like six months? That's a harder call for me. Right

689
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 2: now doesn't feel imminent, especially because on the ground I mean,

690
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:17,240
Speaker 2: there's a lot of support inside Iran for Razapaalabi, who's

691
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,919
Speaker 2: the one that's saying I want you all out there demonstrating,

692
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: but there's no real organization of an opposition movement inside

693
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 2: Iran itself.

694
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

695
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696
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697
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721
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722
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723
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about, especially

724
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. Somebody indicated to me

725
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 1: that they thought the president was quietly. Somebody said it

726
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 1: sort of so that the president sort of is prepared to

727
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:29,720
Speaker 1: become the Gorbacheff of Iran, and I thought, I'll believe

728
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: it when I say it.

729
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 2: I mean, he's weak. He is more of a centrist

730
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 2: in the Iranian context than was expected when those presidential

731
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: elections occurred. But I mean, he is seen as a

732
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 2: failed figure. The economy has utterly collapsed under his rule.

733
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 2: He engaged in a.

734
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 1: Whole pultable water in Tehran right now.

735
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, they've got a massive water crisis in the capitol

736
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 2: and he he was supporting behind the scenes talks with

737
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 2: the Americans, and that's happening again through Oman and they're

738
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 2: good offices, but the Supreme Leader has stopped anything from happening.

739
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 2: So I don't know that the president possession would be

740
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,760
Speaker 2: useful in really driving a different outcome.

741
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 1: Are we stretched a little thin right now with Venezuela,

742
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: with what we're doing in Syria, with what to douce

743
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: more in Iran? Would are we prepared if we wanted

744
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 1: to do something, could we do it immediately? Or do

745
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 1: we actually have a little bit because of this Venezuela exercise.

746
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 2: The B two's are all been you know, they're all

747
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 2: repositioned Diego Garcia. There's massive amount of firepower and readiness

748
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 2: to engage in those strikes. If that's what you do.

749
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 2: You could also send them from like Montana if you

750
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 2: really needed to, right we did Americans have that capacity Again,

751
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:53,840
Speaker 2: if you're not talking about boots on the ground and

752
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 2: actual regime change with an ability to execute on it.

753
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:01,359
Speaker 2: The limitations of the US military suddenly how much much less.

754
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 1: So I don't want to like get ahead of ourselves,

755
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: But what would this mean for a rock.

756
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 2: It would mean that a significant constraint on their government

757
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 2: and the lever that has prevented them from working more

758
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 2: effectively with the big powers in the region would be gone.

759
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 2: And I think that that would be a useful thing

760
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 2: for a Rocky economic.

761
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,720
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you paid a picture. It's like God,

762
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,240
Speaker 1: you know, if a run, if this regime went away,

763
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 1: maybe Syria could thrive, Maybe Lebanon could thrive, Maybe I

764
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: Rock could thrive. Right like feels like it's steady. I mean,

765
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 1: are we're being too optimistic about what would happen after

766
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: the fall of this regime.

767
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:52,279
Speaker 2: Well, we've seen that Saudi Arabia, you know, which we've

768
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 2: thought of as a twenty years ago, even ten years ago,

769
00:45:57,000 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 2: as an enormously conservative and pretty repressive monarchy, and today

770
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 2: I mean truly revolutionary in the positive sense, for young people,

771
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 2: for women participating in the economy, for tourism becoming a

772
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 2: real part of GDP tourism in Saudi Arabia, like no

773
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 2: one was talking about that ten years ago, and now

774
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: it's increasingly becoming a world class destination.

775
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 1: Still probably go to Abu Dhabi or Dubai before ryadd

776
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: but still you know, go for it.

777
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 2: But Alula is now becoming a world class must do destination,

778
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 2: which is in Saudi Arabia, and if you haven't heard

779
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: of it yet, you will within another year or two.

780
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 2: So definitely they're putting real effort into that. And yeah,

781
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 2: it's going to be for tourists in the region first,

782
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 2: but then it's going to be from all over the world.

783
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 2: So you know, I think that don't underestimate what energy,

784
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 2: wealth and some technocrats can accomplish given level of control.

785
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 2: And of course what you have in Saudi Arabia and

786
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 2: the Emirates in particular, I mean cut it is tiny,

787
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 2: but you have, you know, very strong centralized control and

788
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 2: all you need is the ability to support a reform process,

789
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 2: which they didn't have before. The Emiratis went first, and

790
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,720
Speaker 2: now the Saudis are fast following.

791
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 1: Maybe Nan Yahoo. You know, it's interesting. I remember there's

792
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 1: a poll right before the ceasefire which said as soon

793
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 1: as there's a ceasefire, sixty percent of Israelis wanted him out.

794
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: I don't see a path for him to be out

795
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 1: anytime soon. But what's your sense.

796
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,320
Speaker 2: I think that it's going to be a very close

797
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 2: run election. Israel is a fragmented multi party system where

798
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:50,320
Speaker 2: coalition building is extremely hard and also very opaque until

799
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 2: after you have the votes in. We could easily He's

800
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 2: an incredibly talented tactician in election math and management. He's

801
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 2: also very charismatic and being able to convince people that

802
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 2: he can give them the world and that others along that. So,

803
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,920
Speaker 2: I mean, it's really hard to count him out. But

804
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 2: he could absolutely not be a part of the next

805
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 2: government in Israel. I think that that is that is

806
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: plausible as we look, are plausible this time than there

807
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 2: has been in quite some time, probably, And and you know,

808
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 2: the fact is that normalization with Saudi Arabia, once BB

809
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 2: is gone is absolutely on the table. Then you can

810
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 2: move ahead with Phase two, which BB opposes, but which

811
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 2: you know you could actually move on.

812
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:38,359
Speaker 1: Now.

813
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 2: The Israelis don't support a Palestinian state anymore, there is

814
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 2: no there's no support for that in the population as

815
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:48,879
Speaker 2: a whole, but there is support for I think among

816
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 2: the majority of the population for the peace plan that

817
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 2: actually passed the Security Council, the American peace Plan that

818
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 2: past the Security count This, this is probably the most

819
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 2: improbable foreign policy win by the United States in the

820
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 2: first year of Trump, because the US went from being

821
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 2: completely isolated by pretty much everyone for supporting a war

822
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 2: that was considered ethnic cleansing by the vast majority of

823
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:22,360
Speaker 2: the world's governments and populations, with massive humanitarian damage and

824
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:26,320
Speaker 2: tens of thousands of Palestinians killed kids, right, all huge

825
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:30,800
Speaker 2: humanitarian outrage. And then suddenly Trump got all the countries

826
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 2: in the region together and during the United Nations and

827
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 2: said We're going to make a ceasefire happen. And everyone

828
00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 2: passes it in the Security Council except the Russians and

829
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 2: Chinese who abstain.

830
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: You know, it's fascinating about Trump with this. I've said this.

831
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 1: You know, he's the last person you'd want to negotiate

832
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: with Europe, but he might be the only person you

833
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 1: want negotiating in the Middle East. In a weird way,

834
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 1: his style, his transactional nature. Look, I don't think he

835
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 1: cares about BB, and BB's gonna find this out. And

836
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 1: but in a weird way, he speaks the same language,

837
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 1: and and he's it works there. It doesn't work in

838
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:11,320
Speaker 1: a lot of other.

839
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 2: Parts of the world, but he's so popular there. Weirdly

840
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 2: went to the Kanesset and spoke there. I mean, the

841
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 2: ovations that he was getting popular from the not it's

842
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 2: not even close. I mean, he's unpopular, and rightfully so.

843
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:28,799
Speaker 2: But Trump is wildly popular, very popular across because he's

844
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 2: delivered for them. He's the one that moved the American

845
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: embassy to Jerusalem after so many presidents Democrat Republican promised

846
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 2: and then didn't deliver. He's the one that recognized the

847
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 2: goal on Heights as part of Israel, which another president,

848
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 2: other presidents wouldn't do. So he has delivered for the israelis.

849
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 1: No, which is why he he alone, might be the

850
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: person which may in its own way, why the world.

851
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 2: Sort OF's like, Okay, you can get this done, go

852
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 2: do it right. Yeah, Being clearly he was more more

853
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: capable of pressuring Israel when he felt like it, and

854
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 2: he did.

855
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:09,439
Speaker 1: This to China.

856
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 2: Will this be like that kind of foreign policy victory

857
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:15,800
Speaker 2: in his legacy not? I think not. If if bb wins,

858
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 2: if he's he's part of the coalition because I think

859
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 2: that again, what Trump really wants is the Saudi normalization,

860
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 2: and I's gone, you can't do that until you end

861
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,879
Speaker 2: the Israeli occupation of guys that you create some reconstruction.

862
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 2: I don't think it has to be a state, but

863
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:36,360
Speaker 2: there has to be some kind of self governance with

864
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:40,880
Speaker 2: security provided by outsiders but not Israel, and that just

865
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 2: I don't think that can happen as long as BB

866
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 2: is there. And let's also keep in mind that the

867
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:50,839
Speaker 2: settlements in the West Bank are expanding and BB's far

868
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 2: right allies are pushing that and not Yahoo is supporting it.

869
00:51:55,920 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: Yep. I don't know how you unwind that.

870
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 2: So that I think that that those are facts on the.

871
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 1: Ground, and I don't know it's a I've been in

872
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:11,880
Speaker 1: plenty of conversations with a certain monarch who touches that

873
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 1: West Bank. I mean some things, the toothpastes out of

874
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 1: the tube.

875
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I mean, how many millions of Palestinians are

876
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 2: living in Jordan now and the right of return, Yeah,

877
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 2: that is never happening. Remember there was a deal that

878
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 2: Jared Broker that got you before the Abraham Accords, that

879
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 2: I mean was a lot less territory for the Palestinians

880
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:36,760
Speaker 2: than they would have had with the previous Camp David accords.

881
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 2: And yet you know was couldn't get done, non starter

882
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 2: for the Palestinians, and still reflected much more than they

883
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 2: have now. And that's the problems, the power asymmetries between

884
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:53,240
Speaker 2: the Palestinians and the Israelis, and between the entire axis

885
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 2: of resistance in the Israelis, including Iran and the Israelis.

886
00:52:56,520 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 2: The Israelis have the military capabilities and the wherewithal.

887
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 1: No they're going to be able to dictate the terms

888
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 1: of the surrender.

889
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,399
Speaker 2: It's funny. Ant Yahoo just came out today, I don't

890
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:07,680
Speaker 2: know if you saw that and said he really wants

891
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 2: to end the Israeli reliance on all of the American

892
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 2: foreign aid in the next ten years. He doesn't want

893
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 2: any more defense support. He wants the belief and the

894
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 2: support of the American people the American government, but he

895
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 2: doesn't want the money. I mean, I will believe that

896
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 2: when it happens. But it's interesting because he understands that

897
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 2: the relying on the American taxpayers has been such an

898
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 2: incredible populous push in the US, and the US has

899
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 2: ended that for you know, almost.

900
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 1: Everybody else around them phebe if BB Well, nobody's done

901
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 1: more damage Daser's reputation in the United States than Bbnanya

902
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,879
Speaker 1: left and right for we can say some of it.

903
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 1: He's on him for sure. Whatever it is, he has

904
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 1: not helped the situation, particularly in.

905
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:57,360
Speaker 2: His very divisive figure.

906
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, particularly, and I think how he handled let's move

907
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 1: to Ukraine. Yeah, it feels as if, let me ask you,

908
00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:13,279
Speaker 1: this is Trump going to be fine if the Europeans

909
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:15,719
Speaker 1: take the lead in helping the Ukrainians. And does he

910
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,800
Speaker 1: just sort of has he given up on Putin? Because

911
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 1: I get the sense he's thinking about giving up on Putin.

912
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, but you probably would have had that

913
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 2: sense occasionally on several occasions over the last six months. Right,

914
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 2: He's he's kind of moved in that direction, and then

915
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 2: he backs off. He does ready to hit the Ukrainians

916
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 2: again because they're weak and see if you can get

917
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 2: more out of them. He wants to end the war.

918
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,880
Speaker 2: He's failed to end the war. It's mostly because the

919
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 2: Russians are giving him nothing. He's put a little bit

920
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:48,799
Speaker 2: of pressure on Russia, but far more pressure on the Ukrainians.

921
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:52,919
Speaker 2: But the interesting thing is that the Europeans are now

922
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 2: spending all the money. So for Trump to cut off Ukraine, well,

923
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 2: that would have to tell the America can military industrial complex,

924
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 2: you are no longer allowed to sell weapons to the Europeans.

925
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 1: Well wait a minute, but intelligence sharing, intelligence sharing still happening, right, yeah, yeah,

926
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 1: But I mean if that were cut off, that would

927
00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: be a big deal.

928
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 2: Not as small it would it would absolutely it is

929
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 2: less of a complete game changer than having the ammunition

930
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:28,279
Speaker 2: and having the missiles and all the rest. But the

931
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 2: reality is that the United States is going to continue

932
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 2: to provide those weapons. They're going to continue to allow

933
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:39,400
Speaker 2: the Europeans to buy them and transfer them to Ukraine,

934
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:41,840
Speaker 2: and that allows the Ukrainians to continue to fight. And

935
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 2: that's a pretty big deal. So the Americans are going

936
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 2: to continue to be complicit, fully complicit in Ukraine's defense,

937
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 2: and as long as that is true, you can't really

938
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 2: have a US Russia deal. So Trump has kind of

939
00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 2: been cut off by the Europeans. The Europeans have bought

940
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:02,360
Speaker 2: themselves a seat at the table. They bought themselves a

941
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 2: veto on Trump's ability to drive full capitulation of the Ukrainians,

942
00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:13,239
Speaker 2: and that forces Trump to squeeze the Russians a little

943
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 2: bit more if he wants to try to get a ceasefire,

944
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 2: like he has on telling the Indians to stop buying

945
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:24,240
Speaker 2: Russian oil or else there won't be a US India

946
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:28,760
Speaker 2: trade deal. And Mukesh Ambani in reliance just stopped buying

947
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 2: Russian crude in the last few weeks for example. So

948
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 2: it's it's meaningful, it's it's causing some some pain to

949
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 2: the Russians.

950
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 1: What's some you know, we've we've there's been a lot

951
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 1: of speculation that that that the longer this war goes,

952
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 1: that eventually it would create internal descent in Russia. In Russia,

953
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 1: you know, you hear anecdotal we'll see a report here

954
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:57,319
Speaker 1: or there. One would assume that now more people know

955
00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:00,200
Speaker 1: somebody killed in this war than they did yesterday, day

956
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:03,040
Speaker 1: and the day before, et cetera. Yeah, what's your sense

957
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 1: in your sources of sort of of of the level

958
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:12,720
Speaker 1: of discouragement in the Russian populace over this war not.

959
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 2: Seeing anything meaningful. I mean, we've seen a couple of

960
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 2: saw one former general that came out publicly and talked

961
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:23,800
Speaker 2: about what a kind of disaster this was. The sort

962
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 2: of thing that you hear some people say internally but

963
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 2: never publicly. That was a little surprising some of the

964
00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 2: bloggers who are quite patriotic talking about the fact that

965
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:35,160
Speaker 2: the Russian military is not performing as well as it

966
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 2: should for examples a little that.

967
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's sometimes more criticism from his right, you haven't

968
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 1: been strong enough, you haven't been aggressive enough.

969
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, but within the population not so much. Now

970
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,920
Speaker 2: the economy I think less about the Russians that are

971
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 2: getting killed, although there are a lot of them. They're

972
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 2: not from Moscow, they're not from Petersburg. They're from you know,

973
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 2: sort of areas that are going to cause much less trouble,

974
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 2: and they're prisoners.

975
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 1: That's that was obviously done on purpose, right, he doesn't

976
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:07,479
Speaker 1: want people at Moscow or Saint Petersburg to get first

977
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 1: time glimpses of But I do.

978
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 2: Think the Russian economy is starting to take more of

979
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 2: a hit as a consequence of low oil prices and

980
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 2: the squeeze from all of these sanctions, especially the energy sanctions.

981
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 2: So it does. I do think it matters, But I

982
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 2: also think that ultimately the Ukrainians are having a harder

983
00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 2: time of it in terms of maintaining this level of fighting,

984
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 2: and I think that the Europeans are having a harder

985
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:37,960
Speaker 2: time if we look over the next two three years,

986
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 2: the fact that everything you've asked me about Greenland, everything

987
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 2: we've talked about America squeezing the Europeans as well. If

988
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 2: you're Putin, if I'm advising Putin, I'm telling him double

989
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 2: down on pressure in Europe because you concause maybe your

990
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 2: big crag, Yeah, you might be able to crack.

991
00:58:53,960 --> 00:59:00,440
Speaker 1: Well, that's an interesting is there? Who of our By the.

992
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 2: Way, I'm sorry, but I've got I'm going to have

993
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 2: to go in like four minutes.

994
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 1: Just okay, all right, let me get you out of here.

995
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 1: On two questions. Question one is this, who's the most

996
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 1: secure leader in Europe right now? In the sort of

997
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 1: the western part of your you know, the sort of

998
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:18,440
Speaker 1: the G seven allies?

999
00:59:20,240 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 2: The most secure? I mean in the Italian Maloney is

1000
00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:30,720
Speaker 2: probably the most popular among the major economies right now,

1001
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 2: and France seems like it's a mess. Italian governments used

1002
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 2: to fall apart every few months.

1003
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 1: Right now, that's that the French National Assembly says, hey,

1004
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 1: we hold our champagne, We'll do this now.

1005
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Macron's not going anywhere because the

1006
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 2: general elections are twenty twenty seven. Everyone's going to wait

1007
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 2: for that. But they've been you know, governments that they've had,

1008
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:53,960
Speaker 2: like multiple prime ministers that mess. Yeah, yeah, I mean

1009
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:57,200
Speaker 2: Germany is I guess you'd say Germany is more stable

1010
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:03,120
Speaker 2: because you know, grand coalition multi party system. Understand they

1011
01:00:03,160 --> 01:00:07,840
Speaker 2: benefit from the EU, and yet the parties in that

1012
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 2: system disagree on so much that it's become very dysfunctional.

1013
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 2: And as the German economy continues to underperform, the AfD

1014
01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 2: on the right and dur Linka on the left continue

1015
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:24,280
Speaker 2: to do quite well. This year they're going to be

1016
01:00:24,360 --> 01:00:26,960
Speaker 2: five state elections in Germany. I expect the far right

1017
01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 2: is going to do very well. So, I mean, there's

1018
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 2: no great answer for that question, is what I'm telling you.

1019
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 1: All right, And one year from now is going to

1020
01:00:36,040 --> 01:00:37,240
Speaker 1: be twenty twenty seven, and.

1021
01:00:37,280 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 2: The Greece is probably the country that's doing the best

1022
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 2: because they've had post Grexit, they've had great, great, strong government.

1023
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 1: It's fascinating to see the southern European countries have an

1024
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:51,240
Speaker 1: economic boom after having such a disaster and have to

1025
01:00:51,240 --> 01:00:54,080
Speaker 1: be built out by the Germans. Yeah, back in that

1026
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 1: long ago, very quickly. Next year is supposed to be

1027
01:00:57,440 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 1: the year that China takes Taiwan. Where are we at?

1028
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 1: What is your expectation and do you expect Donald Trump

1029
01:01:04,440 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 1: to stand in the way.

1030
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:11,920
Speaker 2: I think that the Chinese and the Americans have both

1031
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:16,160
Speaker 2: understand that a level of stabilization of that relationship is

1032
01:01:16,160 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 2: good for them after the big fights that they had

1033
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 2: on tariffs and export controls and licensing last year. And

1034
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:28,880
Speaker 2: I think that means that Chinese understand that an invasion

1035
01:01:28,920 --> 01:01:33,160
Speaker 2: of Taiwan would be really, really bad. If Americans are

1036
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 2: screwing up in so many areas long term, don't get

1037
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:40,440
Speaker 2: in their way and you know, make hay in other places.

1038
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 2: So I could see the Chinese testing Taiwan on certain

1039
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 2: issues like bigger exercises and maybe a coastguard boarding a ship,

1040
01:01:50,920 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 2: you know sort of thing, maybe some political and economic pressure,

1041
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 2: but not that's very different from an invasion. Nothing that

1042
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 2: would be an action enforcing event or an embarrassment for

1043
01:02:04,200 --> 01:02:05,439
Speaker 2: the US administration.

1044
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 1: But if we're embracing sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere,

1045
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 1: how is that? How does Beijing not see that as

1046
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 1: a right?

1047
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 2: I mean we're on the one hand, we are. On

1048
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 2: the one hand, the Western Hemisphere is not the limit

1049
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 2: of American ambitions in the world. It is a prioritization.

1050
01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:27,680
Speaker 2: On the other hand, American military dominance in the Western

1051
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 2: Hemisphere does not relate easily with Chinese commercial dominance with

1052
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 2: most of the countries outside of the US and Canada

1053
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:42,439
Speaker 2: and Mexico, and that's not going to change anytime soon.

1054
01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 2: So I think the sphere of influence argument is overstated.

1055
01:02:47,000 --> 01:02:51,440
Speaker 1: Ian bremer Man, I always appreciate this steward to force that.

1056
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:53,680
Speaker 2: Thanks a lot of fun to do. Let me do.

1057
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 1: I love traveling the world with you. Who knows someday

1058
01:02:57,080 --> 01:02:59,080
Speaker 1: we met actually do it in person. Good luck in Davos.

1059
01:02:59,120 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 1: It'd be a lot of my fun on jeeus. The

1060
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 1: fact that Trump goes to Davos is that clearly that

1061
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 1: an American president goes.

1062
01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 2: Oh well, I mean the sense that the Americans are

1063
01:03:06,760 --> 01:03:08,880
Speaker 2: going to be meeting with so many different leaders around

1064
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 2: the world. The communication is good, but if you watch

1065
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 2: how the how the heads of state and how the

1066
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:17,400
Speaker 2: CEOs comport themselves publicly with him, it is very different

1067
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:19,040
Speaker 2: from the way they talk privately. And that is a

1068
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:20,800
Speaker 2: big part of the problem.

1069
01:03:21,440 --> 01:03:23,920
Speaker 1: Oh well, that's why we have you and your tremendous

1070
01:03:23,920 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 1: newsletter that is available for free. Even it's it's tremendous

1071
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:30,400
Speaker 1: G zero. Uh and boy you have said we live

1072
01:03:30,400 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 1: in a G zero world. Yeah, well we're there now. Congrats,

1073
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 1: now we are there now.

1074
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:36,680
Speaker 2: Thanks Chuck, good brother.