WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 3 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:13.920 Check it on Man Down Man Thursday morning, Sepcember Beating 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:18.640 the Book Podcast. It's Gil Alexander Mega Pod Week three 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:22.880 the National Football League with the return of the rotating guests. 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:25.439 I like that first of all, the staples of the show. 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.880 On my right, the conciliarity Derek Stevens over there at 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:32.120 the Circus Sports Operation, he is the vice president of operations. 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:34.560 A matter of fact, it's Mike Palm. How you doing, Mike, 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:36.599 A little bit of a head called a little bit 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:39.240 of a sore throat, Gail. But we're here for you. 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:43.640 Might be mono, mono nucleosis. By the way, I'm thinking pneumonia. 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:46.800 I'm thinking that. You sound pretty excited about it. You're like, 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:49.760 I'm thinking maybe maybe a pneumonia. If I had mono, 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.080 I'll be out of five weeks. Like Donald, I can't 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:54.360 afford that. Well, you're not playing a contact sport. Your 0:00:54.360 --> 0:00:56.120 spleen won't be in jeopardy. I think you can still. 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:59.200 By the way, I had mono in college. It's exhausting, 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:02.000 the whole things exhausting. I don't know how Donald got it. 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.360 It's like a freshman in college. That kid. Anyway, that's 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:07.080 Mike Palm. On my left, Ladies and Gentlemen, the star 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:11.000 of the Showtime docu series Action and Wednesday Staple on 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:14.080 a numbers game at Visa every Wednesday morning, seven and 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:16.320 nine Pacific, tend New and Eastern Ladies and Gentlemen, Todd 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:23.800 wishing that Hello Toddy? Hey, uh, Todd? Could you recap 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:25.720 how you did last week again on the show that 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:27.440 was your Best Bets? How do you do on the 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:31.240 Megapod last week? I think I was one in two. 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:35.200 I had the Jacksonville plus eight, and I lost the 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:38.560 Bears minus two and a half in the vic Bangio 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:41.840 Bowl and the uh and then of course I had 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:44.520 the over and the Saints game and Drew Breeves got injured, 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:47.240 so that was kind of painful. I lost my teeth 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:50.400 because of Carolina. Yeah, I lost my tease. Also, I 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:52.280 went one in two. I did the same record week 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:54.280 two as I did week one, neither of which is good. 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:56.960 One and two on the Best Bets, and I blew 0:01:56.960 --> 0:01:58.960 the teaser because of Carolina. Mike, how do you do 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.600 three and two? And so ka? But one and two 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.320 on the megapod narrowing it down to three, so that sucks. 0:02:04.400 --> 0:02:07.760 I was three and oh with the best bets uh 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:12.799 San Francisco, Buffalo and under in the Bears Denver game, 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:15.400 but blew the teaser with by a point with the 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:19.040 Baltimore I buried the headline three and oh from Mike Palm. 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:21.520 You are pretty hot in baseball too, aren't you. Right now, 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:24.880 we're doing okay. We were looking forward to some end 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:27.720 game today, but one of the major providers is struggling 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:32.160 to uh to give that option. William Hill, for I 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:35.519 will say what Mike will not. William Hill not really 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:39.840 providing in games today technical issues they have. According to 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:43.480 William Hill, ladies and gentlemen, he is our rotating guests 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.640 often on the megapod. He is always our first of 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:50.480 the year and this is no different this year from Vison. 0:02:50.560 --> 0:02:52.840 I can actually call him a Visa host. He hosts 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:54.960 the Green Zone over at Visa and of course for 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:57.480 all your golf needs in the Las Vegas area, please 0:02:57.520 --> 0:02:59.840 call Tea Times USA. Oh oh, by the way, he 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.040 won a super contest back in Tleven with his son 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:05.960 SUSI team. It's our friend Brady Cannon. What up, Brady? 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:08.920 How are you? Man? Uh? You know, I appreciate you 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:11.600 having me on to lead off I found a pretty 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:14.560 comfortable place for myself as the leadoff man. But you know, 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:17.480 usually week one and I always say, you know, I 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:19.800 can make a few bone head picks and nobody cares 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:21.760 because it's week one. You know, you're dealing with a 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:24.640 lot of unknown and expectations are pretty low. Now you 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:26.520 have me on in week three, and I feel like 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:30.120 I have to sound a lot smarter. Well, no, you 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:32.840 just be yourself as always, no matter what. I greatly 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:36.360 appreciate you being your Rickey Henderson. Thank you you are 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:38.600 my Ricky Henderson. By the way, when I mentioned that 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.320 you were a Super Contest winner and I mentioned the 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:44.960 year eleven, would you prefer that I no longer mentioned 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:48.600 the year. No, No, that's a great year for me. 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:51.480 I also won the member guest at Red Rock Country 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:53.960 Club that year, So two thousand and eleven is uh 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:57.480 forever etched in my personal resume. All right. You know 0:03:57.600 --> 0:03:59.840 Richard stand who won, He wants me to just shut 0:03:59.880 --> 0:04:01.680 up about the year. So because it was you know, 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:04.600 it's old school back then and fewer contestants, so he said, 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:06.640 it sounds has much more gravitas when I just say 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:10.400 Super Contest winner. So okay, new format. Brady, you are 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:14.160 familiar with the new format. We start out with thoughts 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:17.320 on the Thursday night game today, another barn burner, Ladies 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:20.360 and gentlemen, another barn burner on a Thursday night. Uh, 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:23.760 Tennessee is at Jacksonville. Tennessee is a one and a 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:25.760 half or two and a half point favorite, somewhere in 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:27.640 that pocket. Let me give you the consensus right now. 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.360 I'm seeing that it's a two point consensus across the board. 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:35.760 Tennessee at Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew Uh starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars. 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.680 And this really weird thing where Jalen Ramsey wants out 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:41.799 of Jacksonville, has demanded a trade, but will yet play 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.840 for Jacksonville tonight. In fact, Adam Schefter reported there was 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:48.080 another NFL team that called the league and said, hey, uh, 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:50.040 if he plays for Jacksonville Thursday, can he played for 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:52.520 us on Sunday? And the league was like, no, you 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:54.880 can't do that. So Brady, let's start with you. You're 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.400 the guest. You get honors. Any thoughts, any pre flop 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.040 play on this game tonight, No free flop play. I 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.160 made the Jaguars actually a one point favorite here, so 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:06.839 I lean taking the points with him. And let's also 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.560 note you guys know there's not that much of a 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:11.920 difference between a one point favorite and a one and 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.760 a half point underdog, So uh not like my line 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:18.720 was way off. But division game, you know, the first 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.599 few weeks of the season, division games typically the dog 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:25.920 affairs pretty well. Plus the dog is at home, obviously, 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:28.600 I think the home team tends to have an advantage 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:32.159 on a short week. Now, there's film out on Gardner Minshew, now, 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:34.560 so he could regress. But I think this kid is 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.680 pretty good. And you know, look at the quarterbacks that 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:41.000 Mike Leach has turned out out at Washington State, Luke 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:44.920 Falk Minshew, I wouldn't be surprised, uh if we never 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:48.640 see Nick Foles as the starter again in Jacksonville. I 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:50.760 think this kid is gonna be pretty good. But like 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:54.320 you alluded to, Gil, probably a pretty typical ugly, dumb 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:57.720 Thursday night game. Um but I lean with the Jags. 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:01.800 No play just uh just observed asition this evening, while 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:04.080 we while we go through the in game opportunities on 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:06.240 the green zone on Visan By the way, there you go, 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:09.279 which is when give the hours that will be six pm? 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:12.360 Pacific nine pm Eastern. We're on for four hours. Would 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:15.280 go through all the in game opportunities in both baseball, 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:18.359 college football and the Thursday night game tonight all right, 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:20.320 VISA in the Vegas Stats and Information Network for those 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:22.640 tuning in for the first time, Serious XM channel two 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:26.239 oh four. UM, I am totally treating this game tonight 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:28.800 as I did Monday Night's game, which is play it 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:30.960 in game. It turned out to be a nice in 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:34.000 game fest on the Browns uh and for those who 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.920 went under e under, over and over on end games, 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:39.240 was a good in game fest on Monday night. So 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:43.320 I'll watch and I'll bet accordingly. Maybe I might throw 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:45.880 Jacksonville into a tease because it goes through the three 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:47.479 and the seven, maybe, although that's not going to be 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.320 involved in my teaser of the week. Or maybe it 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:52.920 will Mike anything for tonight, Flop, I'm going to take 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:56.120 the same attitude as you, Gil. I'm gonna watch the 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:59.080 game play out and look for an end game opportunity. 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:02.239 But mostly I'll prob to be watching Flaherty and Hendricks tonight. 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:04.680 Me too. I'm all about Flatty and Henders. Are you 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:08.200 on Flaherty? I am on Flaherty. I'm heavy on Flaherty 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:10.760 first five. Yeah, I'm first five and full on that 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:14.800 tonight Todd. Anything on Thursday Night Football? Uh, not really. 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.240 I think you guys have have you know said it all. 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.800 I like Gardner Minshoot as well. You know. That's why 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.280 I took back from the last week. I think he's 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:24.960 gonna be pretty good. But yeah, I think this is 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:27.880 just a an in game type of opportunity. I'll be 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.560 watching the college football as well as Flaherty the college 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:33.240 football as well, Houston and tu Lane. Are you ad 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:35.640 Eric King? Guy Todd? Do you like Derrek King? I 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:38.600 do like Derek King. I think he's pretty good. Alright 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:40.520 to Lane, favorite by five in that game tonight in 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:43.760 college football as well, and the Cardinals a slight minus 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:46.080 I don't know, let's call it minus one thirteen favorite 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:50.200 full game against the Cubs, first of seven between those 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.880 two teams, and l Central Race wild card implications for 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:57.080 the Cubbies as well, very tight in the National League. 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:59.720 All right, Brady, best bets? What is your number one 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:01.840 best bet of the week, sir? Let's go to lambeau 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:06.160 Field guilt for the Denver Broncos visiting the green Bay Packers, 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.360 And first off, I like a desperate oh and two 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:12.960 team facing a two and o team. I made this 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:14.880 line seven and a half, and early in the week 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:16.680 you were still able to catch eight and a half 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.720 with Denver still plenty of seven and a half's out there, 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:23.080 and I don't think that's bad on a neutral field. 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:25.920 I give Green Baby edge by three and a half points. Now, 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:28.680 in my opinion, the Packers have one of the strongest 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:31.200 home field advantages in football, and I think that can 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:34.400 range anywhere from three to five points, probably a greater 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:36.400 edge later in the year when the weather is more 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.640 of a factor. So now still in September, let's say 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:41.599 that home field is probably worth three or three and 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:44.600 a half, meaning this line should be right around seven 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:47.079 by my calculations. So I felt eight or eight and 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:48.880 a half was a pretty good bargain, you know, better 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:51.880 than a touchdown there. And secondly, I like the fact 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:54.960 that Green Bay has played two straight division rivals in 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.440 the Bears and the Vikings, and now they face an 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:00.920 out a conference opponent um with a Thursday night game 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:03.640 on tap next week and Week four against the Eagles, 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:07.320 So I believe the scheduling spot is advantageous for Denver. 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.760 Also in that Vikings game last week for the Packers 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:15.520 again against Minnesota, very good defense, Green Bay was shut 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:18.640 out in the second half and in second halves this 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:22.560 season two games the Packers have only scored three points Denver. 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:26.120 Now they bring a good defense to town two. And conversely, 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:28.560 Denver has really kind of found its stride in the 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.800 second half, scoring sixteen points against the Raiders in Week 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:35.559 one and eleven points in the fourth quarter against Chicago. 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:38.439 And you know, like Tod mentioned, that really should have 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:41.240 been a w but it ended up being a loss. 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:43.719 And I think that's probably good for us to here 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:46.640 this week. We're probably getting an extra point two our uh, 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:48.680 an extra point or two of value this week in 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.360 the line because that did end up in the lost 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:55.920 column for Denver. And finally, the Denver Broncos, you know, 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:59.560 Bradley Chubb von Miller, this defense is yet to record 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:02.600 a sack this season. So I have to believe Vic 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:05.080 Fangio is well aware of this and is putting an 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:10.000 emphasis on getting pressure on Rogers this Sunday. And Aaron Rodgers, 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:11.600 he happens to be one of the leaders in the 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:14.080 league as far as being sacked. He's been dropped seven 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:17.080 times already this season, and this will be the third 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:21.760 straight defensive power that he faces Chicago, Minnesota and now Denver. 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.200 Broncos are currently ranked as the fourth best defense and 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:28.200 football against the pass. And if I think they can 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.680 maintain that, you know, that ability to defend the pass 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.480 and also get a few sacks on Rogers, I think 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:37.040 they can definitely stay within this number and possibly win 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:38.680 the game. Out Right. I'm gonna even give you the 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:40.640 seven and a half on this, Brady, because it looks 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:43.480 consensus seven and a half. Uh, so you get the 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:45.720 extra hook on this. I don't hate it. I will 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.360 say this. Broncos left tackle Garrett Bowls, the team's top 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:52.959 draft pick, in whistled for holding a career worst four 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:56.240 times against the Bears. That gives him an NFL high 0:10:56.280 --> 0:11:00.960 thirty four flags in thirty four career starts. That is 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:04.920 not good the rest of the NFL. That's right. There 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:08.680 were two hundred I counted two hundred and fifty six 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:14.760 penalties that were accepted this past week in the NFL. God, 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.360 it's just so unwatchable. By the way, I'm gonna set 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:19.240 up a camera in your house Brady while you're watching 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:21.559 this game, because I want to get your face when 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.160 you first see the Joe Flacco face on Sunday and 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:27.679 you realize and you realize, God help you that you've 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:29.280 been on the broncos of this. I don't hate the 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.120 pick though, Mike Palm Mike. By the way, speaking of Denver, 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:35.559 did you happen to catch me and Todd Wishnev talking 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:38.920 about the two point conversion rules yesterday on the Numbers Game? 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.840 Did you catch that? I? I I caught it, and Todd 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:46.280 was not accepting of the rule. That's right, that's Todd. 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:50.200 Todd was not very appreciative of the actual National Football 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:52.800 League rule. I still don't. I still don't accept the rule. 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:55.360 To clarify for those who missed it, and you could 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:57.200 go to Visa dot com and watch the replay on 0:11:57.200 --> 0:12:01.320 Wednesday's The Numbers Game. But essentially was curious if the 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:05.320 referees had actually spotted the ball correctly for what ended 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:08.680 up being Denver's go ahead two point conversion at the 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.400 time with less than forty seconds left in the game. 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:13.360 And I went through a whole thing about how the 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:15.840 refs actually got it right when they re spotted the 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:18.240 ball for the Broncos at the one yard line after 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:22.360 Brandon McManus missed the extra point attempt, but the Broncos 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:25.240 were flagged for encroachment, and it was a whole lengthy thing, 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:28.160 but um essentially, what it gets down to is in 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.400 a two point try, it's not officiated like a normal 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:34.760 football play. And so whatever happened on the previous play, 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:38.840 the fact that the Broncos committed a delay of game 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:40.840 penalty and then ended up choosing to kick what ended 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:44.360 up being a thirty eight yard extra point on the encroachment, 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.920 even when Brandon McManus missed it, they don't just get 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:49.760 the ball back at the three and a half yard 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:51.760 line from what would have been the two point conversion 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.199 line of seven of the seven yard line. They get 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:57.839 to respot it where it was before the first sequence, 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:00.559 so they actually were corrected spotting the ball for the 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.800 Broncos at the one yard line. They get the two 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:06.040 point conversion, and as we know, thanks largely to a 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:09.880 Bradley Chub roughing the passer penalty that was very controversial 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.520 to say the least, three plays later or four plays later, 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:15.720 uh Mitchell Trobiski was able to convert a fourth and fifteen, 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:17.520 they stopped the clock with one second left, and Eddie 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:20.360 Pinniro did his thing in the Bears one by two. Anyway, Mike, 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:22.320 your best bet of the week. Kil it would have 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.360 been interesting to see what Fannie Pack Fangio would have 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.959 done from the three and a half, though it really 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:29.880 really would have been right because he would have been 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:32.080 forced to make a decision. Yeah, by the way, Fannie 0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:34.200 Pack Fangio, which I was saying on a numbers game, 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.560 he's like the guy at a museum with a Fannie 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:39.680 Pack that walks around a museum from painting and painting 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:41.559 with his hands classed behind his back. I hear Bill 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:43.600 Simmons is calling Fannie Pack VIC two, which I guess 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:46.040 is easy because he doesn't wear his stuff like a 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:48.520 Fannie Pack during the game. So we've all come to 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:52.800 the Fannie Pack. Okay, I'm gonna give my uh first 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:56.200 best bet. I'm gonna lay six with the Eagles against 0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:00.719 the Lions. I think there's a big coaching mismatch, in 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:03.920 a big quarterback mismatch in this game, and if you 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:07.640 can lay less than a touchdown, there's value here the Lions. 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:09.439 Let's face it, we're out played for three and a 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.800 half quarters against San Diego, and as Todd says, the 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:15.800 Chargers did charge your things for the during the whole 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:18.120 second half in order to not put that game away, 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:20.640 in order to give up the lead, and in order 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.920 to not convert on the final drive, missing field goals, 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.480 not running on third and two to give the Lions 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:30.440 that game. Their first week performance was absolutely pathetic and 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:34.640 letting a rookie quarterback score on four consecutive drives. I'm 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.720 not impressed with this Lions team. They come in undefeated 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:40.160 at one oh and one, but I still think they're 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:43.080 by far the worst team in the NFC Central. I 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.320 don't think that the Lions defense can hold the Eagles 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:47.280 under twenty seven in this game, and I don't see 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.880 the Lions getting above seventeen. I'm willing to lay just 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:53.360 under a touchdown. Here is my number one play. I 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:55.640 will not waste anybody's time. Normally I will go to 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:58.720 Todd next. That is my number one best bet as well, 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.320 Mr Palm, They you very much everything you said. Lions 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.000 favored by six. This is even down a bit from 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.000 where it opened. I don't get that at all. I'm 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:10.000 all about the Eagles here, I've got the Eagles on 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.360 the Super Bowl. You're right, the Lions are one oh 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:14.400 and one. But for all the reasons you stated snatching 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.240 a tie from the jaws of victory week one and 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.880 having no business winning that game last week, Chargers doing 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.520 Chargers things. To quote Todd, I am on the Eagles 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:24.680 as well as my number one best bet Todd. Sorry 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:26.240 to jump the line, but just had to echo that 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:31.320 I want to go with the Indianapolis Colts minus one. 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:33.840 I see minus one, one and a half. What do 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.640 you see consents that their minus one on the Colts. 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.800 It is minus one, Yes, okay, so I'll take Indie 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:43.320 minus one. All I have to do is win the 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.680 game here at home against the team that I feel 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.880 is like Florida State and was like the Browns, one 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.440 of those talented teams that does dumb things. The Atlanta 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:57.360 Falcons had the game one against the Eagles last week 0:15:57.400 --> 0:15:59.440 and almost gave it away when Matt Ryan threw the 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:03.160 tip and absolutely unthinkable interception in the end zone to 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.000 keep the Eagles in the game. Had Nelson Aguilar not 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:09.240 dropped the touchdown on the last possession by the Eagles, 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:11.560 they may have lost it out right. I am not 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.120 impressed with Atlanta ever since their Super Bowl run. I 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.880 don't like what's happening coaching there. And Frank Wreich to 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:22.240 me as an excellent coach. I mentioned on a Numbers 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:24.960 game how I loved fourth and inches from his own 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:27.560 thirty five with about two twenty to go on the 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.600 other team with two time outs, he decided to go 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.280 for it up nineteen seventeen. I thought that was a 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.880 Belichick type move. I try to go for the kill 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:38.760 right there. I think it's a coaching mismatch as well. 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:40.880 All I have to do is win the game here 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.720 and I'm at home in the Dome. Uh in the 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.800 minus one. Yeah, And the Colts last week seven of 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:50.640 fourteen on third downs, which, if you recall, was a 0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:54.920 staple with the Eagles when Frank Reich was there along 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.520 with Doug Peterson, and it was a staple with Andrew 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:00.680 Luck and the Colts last year under Frank I himself 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.280 so again setting themselves up for good third down yardage 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:07.080 and converting at a high clip. That is always high 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:10.720 leverage situations, the sort of runners in scoring position of football. 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:13.600 So you have that going for you and uh, Jacoby 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:16.000 Brissette coming off a win over the Titans. Andrew Luck 0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:18.920 had retired with a perfect eleven and OH record straight 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:22.080 up against the Titans. Jacoby Brisette picking up last week 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.920 where he left off Indianapolis one point favorites over the Falcons. 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:28.760 This week, Todd on the Colts. So the best bets 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:33.240 Number one Brady on Denver catching the points at Green Bay. 0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:35.919 Mike and I both on Philly giving the points against Detroit. 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:40.359 Todd taking the Colts against the Falcons giving just a point. 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:43.560 Number two best bet Brady going with another OH and 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.800 two team versus a two and O team. I think 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:47.960 that's a pretty good situation, and if you check the 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:50.800 history on that, I think the O and two team 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:54.560 is pretty good against the spread in a desperate situation 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:57.960 like that. And this one, the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.720 San Francisco forty nine Ers San France. Cisco, of course 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.199 gets the win over Tampa Bay, greatly aided by the 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:09.040 Jamis Winston picks six is the hammer Cincinnati for seventeen uh. 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:11.480 Pittsburgh gets hammered by New England and then keeps it 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:14.560 close and lost to Seattle, even without Big Ben for 0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:18.480 most of the game with Roethlisberger. I made this game 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.120 one and a half in favor of the forty Niners. 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.560 And I heard Kenny White on Follow the Money on 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.520 Visa and yesterday with you Mike uh say that his 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:30.760 adjustment for Mason Rudolph is about three and a half 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:33.359 or four points, and I would agree with that. So 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:36.639 by my numbers, uh, that makes San Francisco about a 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.520 five and a half point favorite here with Rudolph, I 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:41.600 was able to get seven, you can still get six 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.240 and a half. And I think this is the typical 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:48.600 fallen hero theory. Right star quarterback goes down, team rallies 0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:50.639 around the new guy. And and I don't think the 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:52.480 new guy is very bad at all. You know, I've 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:55.040 watched this guy a little bit in relief of Roethlisberger, 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:58.360 and I think he looks like a pretty good Arab parent. Uh. 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.720 He's gonna have to deal with the forty Niners pass rush, 0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:03.639 which is very good, but otherwise San Francisco is a 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:07.679 pretty average defense versus the past, and the Steelers in 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:10.480 two games have only given up two sacks. So I 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.440 think if Rudolph, uh, you know, is able to maintain 0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:17.000 that protection, uh, he should be able to have some success. 0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:18.800 The other thing, you know, I think from kind of 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:22.320 an emotional angle, this is San Francisco's home opener, and 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:24.280 the fans are gonna be all raw raw, you know, 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:27.199 look at us. We're two and oh a little, a 0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:29.440 little bit fat and sassy to quote one of your 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:33.760 former megapod colleagues, skill And on the other side, you've 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:36.240 got that desperate O and two team. Like I mentioned, 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:40.560 the Steelers get this their ten and seven in games 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:45.520 without Big Ben there twenty six, fourteen and one against 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:47.320 the spread and games when they come in with a 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.879 losing record, and the Niners are just one and seven 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:54.120 against the spread coming off of back to back spread winds. 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:57.760 So I think it's a good situation for Pittsburgh. You know, 0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:00.240 typically we do see some line value when you have 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:04.080 the star quarterback, the star player, what have you go down, 0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:06.280 and I think it's that very next game where you 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:09.200