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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Saturday morning

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Speaker 1: episode of the Deal Juice Podcast with me Matt Perrault

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt to follow me across all socials.

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Speaker 1: If you are following me on social media, you know

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Speaker 1: that I am currently well. I was in Connecticut, then

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Speaker 1: New York, now back in Connecticut taping this here before

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Speaker 1: the games are over. So I do not know what

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Speaker 1: the record was for last night. That's kind of how

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Speaker 1: the nature this thing is going for this vacation time.

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Speaker 1: But man, I just I don't know. I cannot shake

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Speaker 1: this cold streak that I've been on, and it's been

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Speaker 1: a frustration. Hopefully you guys are fading it. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what happened. I know Radford's down here to start

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Speaker 1: about halfway through the second half or sorry, the first

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Speaker 1: half or other on the road at Clemson, so I

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Speaker 1: don't know if they're going to turn it around or not.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I think the live lines like twenty

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Speaker 1: at the moment I laid plus fifteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: so I don't know how that's going to go. And

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Speaker 1: then hockey, I have no clue because that gift parlay

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Speaker 1: we played last night has not even started yet, so

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Speaker 1: I don't know what's going to happen there, but normally

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Speaker 1: Saturday's card is kind of big. I'm going to give

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Speaker 1: you three plays here, two in college basketball and one

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, and that's kind of it. Again, this

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Speaker 1: is I'm not watching games at the moment. I'm traveling.

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Speaker 1: I'm driving all the way from Connecticut to Massachusetts, and

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Speaker 1: then we're stopping in my hometown, my home for like

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Speaker 1: two hours, and then driving to New Hampshire for a party.

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Speaker 1: I'll be back till really late at night for that,

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Speaker 1: so then I'll be taping this tomorrow night, you know,

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Speaker 1: pretty late. So the Sunday episode will be kind of crazy.

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Speaker 1: I will be doing the live stream on Sunday though, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that will happen. It'll be noon Eastern time on Sunday

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Speaker 1: for us to do that, So looking forward to being

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Speaker 1: on the live stream. But it's going to be kind

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Speaker 1: of one of those crazy, crazy times. So I'm not

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Speaker 1: even watching these games. I'm betting, so I'm just kind

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Speaker 1: of following them along. But that's the nature of this

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Speaker 1: gig here, you know. Obviously, doing a podcast every single day,

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Speaker 1: sometimes vacation in life gets in the way. So do

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Speaker 1: what you want with these picks. Fade, follow, do what

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Speaker 1: you want. If you're fading it, you're making money. So

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Speaker 1: I don't I'm mad at you at all if you're

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Speaker 1: fading my picks. If you're coming on here saying Matt's

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Speaker 1: so cold, I'm gonna keep on fading his bets and

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Speaker 1: keep on cashing because he's so oft. And yes, okay,

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Speaker 1: that's where I am at the moment, not even gonna.

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Speaker 1: I won't get angry at all, Like this is my job.

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Speaker 1: I'm coming here, I'm telling you what I'm betting. You.

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Speaker 1: Guys can go opposite and it's not gonna make me

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Speaker 1: angry at all. Last night was a little bit difficult

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Speaker 1: to go opposite, except for the Clemson Radford game. You

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Speaker 1: bet Clemson you may have won, but the gift parlay

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Speaker 1: may come in. You'd be laying some pretty good juice

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Speaker 1: on the no if you did that. So I don't know.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how that how that all kind of plays out,

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Speaker 1: but hopefully we get that. And if we missed the

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Speaker 1: Radford bet, then it's a winning night. It'll be one

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Speaker 1: in one, but it'll be a plus one fifty six hit,

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Speaker 1: so we'll be up a half a unit for the day.

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Speaker 1: So nothing crazy, but this podcast being brought to you

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Speaker 1: let's start with the NFL game, Dallas taking on Detroit.

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Speaker 1: So the total is fifty two and it's Dallas minus

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Speaker 1: five and a half. Look the number is right in

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Speaker 1: the middle. It gives you pause. You're like, hmm, Detroit

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Speaker 1: needs this, Dallas needs this. Dallas is really good at home,

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Speaker 1: as we know, Detroit is really good just in general.

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Speaker 1: But on the road they're five and three ats. Detroit

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Speaker 1: is indoors here in Dallas. Detroit's got this game on

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Speaker 1: a fast track, which is huge for them. Look fifty

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Speaker 1: one and a half. When the total goes over fifty

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Speaker 1: one and a half, it starts to feel like an underplay. Historically, speaking,

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Speaker 1: when you're looking at the number of fifty two in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, it gets to be difficult to go over that.

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Speaker 1: That is so many points. But there's no way I

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Speaker 1: could bet under in this game. I cannot justify it

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Speaker 1: by any means. However, I do think there is a

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Speaker 1: way you can bet this. Dallas is five and two

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Speaker 1: to the over at home, but their last three games

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Speaker 1: have gone under. Now you could say, well, Matt, that's

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Speaker 1: because you know Philadelphia they lost thirty three. So they

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Speaker 1: won thirty three thirteen at home against the Eagles, and

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Speaker 1: they went to Buffalo lost thirty one to ten, lost

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Speaker 1: to Miami twenty two to twenty. You know, two of

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Speaker 1: those three games weren't at home. What happens if they

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Speaker 1: beat Detroit the way they beat Philadelphia. Now I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying Detroit and Philly you are equal. I'm just saying,

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Speaker 1: what if, Okay, take the fifty two and you're like,

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Speaker 1: they scored thirty three points, only gave up ten. Defense

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Speaker 1: played really well at home. What happens in the defense

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Speaker 1: plays really well at home? Given what has happened over

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Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks or road trips, I guess

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Speaker 1: you could say four Detroit last road game against Chicago,

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Speaker 1: Outdoors lost the game to two, twenty eight to thirteen.

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Speaker 1: Against New Orleans, they gave up twenty eight points to

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Speaker 1: New Orleans's offense, but they won the game thirty three

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Speaker 1: to twenty eight. They went to the Chargers, they scored

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Speaker 1: forty one points, but they gave up thirty eight points

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Speaker 1: on the road. They gave up thirty eight points on

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Speaker 1: the road to the Baltimore Ravens. Why are those things important? Well,

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Speaker 1: let's look at team total. If you could find a

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Speaker 1: team total for Dallas of twenty eight, I bet over

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Speaker 1: twenty eight and a half. But I still think it's okay.

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Speaker 1: Min's one ten one point one units down on Dallas

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Speaker 1: team total over twenty eight and a half. Here's the thought. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I just gave you what Detroit is given up on

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Speaker 1: the road. Okay, on the road twenty eight to Chicago,

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Speaker 1: twenty eight to New Orleans. They gave up forty sorry,

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Speaker 1: thirty eight to the Chargers and thirty eight to the

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Speaker 1: Ravens in their last four road games. Dallas at home,

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Speaker 1: it's well documented. Okay, Dallas at home this year scored

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Speaker 1: thirty against the Jets, thirty eight against the Patriots, forty

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Speaker 1: three against the Rams, forty nine against the Giants, forty

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Speaker 1: five against Washington, forty one against Seattle, and thirty three

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Speaker 1: against the Eagles. Okay, twenty eight and a half is

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Speaker 1: Detroit's defense that great? I just gave you the evidence

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Speaker 1: that on the road they're giving up points. I just

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Speaker 1: gave you Dallas' record at home for what they have scored.

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Speaker 1: Let's just not worry about five and a half. Let's

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Speaker 1: not worry about fifty two, and let's just worry about

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Speaker 1: what we know, or take it down to what we know,

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Speaker 1: and that's Dallas's offense and their ability to score at will.

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Speaker 1: Dallas team total over twenty eight and a half. I

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Speaker 1: hope we don't get hooked there, but two touchdowns in

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Speaker 1: either half in a field goal gets us over. That

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Speaker 1: gets us to thirty one, which I think that's what

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Speaker 1: Dallas is going to score us here. So first bet

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Speaker 1: is Dallas Cowboys team total over thirty or over twenty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half for one point one units. Next

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Speaker 1: two games are in college basketball and one is the

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Speaker 1: game of the day. The Creighton Blue Jays taken on

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Speaker 1: the Marquette Golden Eagles last time we saw the Creighton

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Speaker 1: Blue Jays. They were losing at home to Villanova in overtime.

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Speaker 1: Now the Jays have lost two of the last three

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Speaker 1: in kind of embarrassing fashion, be quite honest, Okay, they've

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Speaker 1: just been dominated. Teams that know how to play tempo

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Speaker 1: are dominating the Jays. Now. Marquette is not one of them.

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Speaker 1: Marquette is a team that they're ranked one hundred and

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Speaker 1: first in adjusted tempo according to kempom. The Jays, well,

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Speaker 1: they've played pretty slowly because you can dictate tempo for them.

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Speaker 1: Point Guard play has been great for Marquette. It has

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Speaker 1: not been great for the Creighton Blue Jays, but they

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Speaker 1: haven't played for a really long time. So there has

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Speaker 1: to be this thought that the Jays are going to

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Speaker 1: be able to get better point guard play, that they're

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Speaker 1: going to get more shots for Trey Alexander, that they're

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Speaker 1: going to shoot the ball from behind that arc better,

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Speaker 1: and Baylor Shireman's not going to play the way he's

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Speaker 1: been playing. Nice break for the holidays finals are over,

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Speaker 1: the Jays can just focus on basketball for a while

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Speaker 1: here before they get back into the semester. And this

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Speaker 1: is a road game that's going to be an absolute war.

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Speaker 1: Now the lines three and a half Kem Palm has

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Speaker 1: this as a three point win for Marquette. I don't

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Speaker 1: hate that, Okay. I do think Marquette wins this game.

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Speaker 1: Do they cover? I don't know. This is going to

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Speaker 1: be an absolute war. Marquette has the twenty seventh efficient

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Speaker 1: offense in the country. The creaton Blue Jays have the

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Speaker 1: twenty first efficiency for adjusted defense, adjusting efficiency for defense

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Speaker 1: forty fourth, sorry, forty fourth an effective field goal percentage

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Speaker 1: versus thirty eight in effective field goal defense. Now, three

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Speaker 1: point shooting, Marquete's not been great. The Jay's been pretty

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Speaker 1: good defensively on this Marquette, though, fourteenth in two point percentage.

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Speaker 1: The Jays are sixty sixth defensively. On the other side,

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Speaker 1: it's the seventeenth most efficient offense in college bass couple

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Speaker 1: for the Jays up against the thirteenth most efficient defense

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Speaker 1: for Marquette. Fourth in effective field goal percentage because one

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Speaker 1: hundred and eleventh for Marquette, fortieth and three point percentage

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Speaker 1: to ninety fifth for defense from Marquette and two point

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Speaker 1: percentage Jays or second up against one hundred and thirty seventh. Okay,

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Speaker 1: look This is gonna be a matchup problem. Tyler Kollik

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Speaker 1: is an amazing player, Okay, one of the best guards

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Speaker 1: in the league. I think he's gonna kill the Jays

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Speaker 1: and make it really hard on Stephen Ashworth here for create.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he's athletic enough to handle Kolik, and

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Speaker 1: I think Cam Jones could be a huge difference maker

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Speaker 1: in this game. I won one hundred percent lean towards

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Speaker 1: Marquette laying the three and a half points here, but

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Speaker 1: I think there's some value on the total because I

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Speaker 1: don't believe the Creighton Blue Jays are gonna shoot the

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Speaker 1: way that they shot the last two of the last

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Speaker 1: three games. And I think you're gonna see the layoff

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Speaker 1: really help the Jays offense. And I think you're gonna

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Speaker 1: see a way because Marquette wants to play fast, and

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Speaker 1: when Marquette wants to push, the Jays can then get

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Speaker 1: out and run. And when they can get out and run,

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Speaker 1: they then can shoot. They can't dictate tempo. Their opponent

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Speaker 1: is gonna dictate tempo. Marquette wants to play fast. That's

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Speaker 1: great for the Jays, it's great for their offense, and

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Speaker 1: I think it plays right into the total to have

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Speaker 1: this game go over. Now, you might go, Matt, the

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Speaker 1: Jays are two and three, are three and two to

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Speaker 1: the under this year on the road. Marquette's four and

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Speaker 1: three to the to the under at home this year.

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Speaker 1: I get it. Georgetown though. Eighty one points scored for

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Speaker 1: Marquette against Saint Thomas, eighty four points scored for Marquette

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Speaker 1: against Notre Dame, seventy eight points scored for Marquette against Texas,

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Speaker 1: eighty six points on the road for Marquette. Now on

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Speaker 1: the flip side, the total here of one fifty three,

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Speaker 1: like they like there was the Texas game under by

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Speaker 1: two and a half because Texas didn't score, They're gonna

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Speaker 1: score sixty five points. You might go, Marquette's gonna clamp

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Speaker 1: down on the Jays. This is where I think the

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Speaker 1: Jay's in their time off. I think this is where

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Speaker 1: they get those open looks, those open threes, those rim

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Speaker 1: runs here, those easy transition baskets that the Jays have

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Speaker 1: been lacking so much because of the way they're playing,

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Speaker 1: who they're playing. I think Marquette will give those up.

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Speaker 1: With the tempo being more up tempo faster, which really

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Speaker 1: helps the crate and Blue Jays helps them score, helps

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Speaker 1: them get to the basket. Look, I think you can

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Speaker 1: shop around here. There's some different numbers that have been

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Speaker 1: thrown around and where you want to look at DraftKings

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Speaker 1: and FANDU will have a little bit of a discrepancy

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Speaker 1: here on the total of this game. One forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half is what you're seeing at FanDuel. DraftKings

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Speaker 1: comes in a little bit lower than that, and I

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Speaker 1: think you can kind of go all right, let's jump

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Speaker 1: on the crighton Blue Jays. It's well, actually just moved

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Speaker 1: and now it's one forty eight and a half. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so it's the same. We're going to take the one

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Speaker 1: forty eight and a half open at one forty seven,

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Speaker 1: one forty eight and a half. Both DraftKings and Fandel

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Speaker 1: will both have this. Creighton and Marquette over one forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half for one point one units. And

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Speaker 1: then the other game, Indiana State up against Michigan's State.

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Speaker 1: Michigan State is laying eight and a half. I think

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Speaker 1: India State is catching eight and a half tomorrow to

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Speaker 1: Michigan State. Michigan State's laying eight and a half total

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Speaker 1: was one fifty and a half. Look, I think Indiana

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Speaker 1: State's live here, I really do. I think they can cover.

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Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of what the Sycamores have looked like.

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Speaker 1: But Michigan State has come to life. They ripped apart

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Speaker 1: Stony Brook. They scored ninety nine points. They ripped apart

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Speaker 1: Oakland they scored seventy nine points. They ripped part Baylor,

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Speaker 1: scoring eighty eight points they scored. They lost to Nebraska

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Speaker 1: amazingly enough by giving up by scoring seventy ten points.

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Speaker 1: A game went over. Last four games for Michigan State

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Speaker 1: have gone over. Three of the last four games have

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Speaker 1: gone over for Indiana State. You have a Tennessee State

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Speaker 1: game where they scored ninety Against ball State, they scored

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Speaker 1: eighty three. Southern Indiana scored ninety eight against North Illinois,

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Speaker 1: they scored ninety. None of those teams are even comparable

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Speaker 1: or even close to the talent level of Michigan State.

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Speaker 1: But Indiana State's temp are of Michigan State. But indian

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Speaker 1: Na State's tempo is what I'm looking at here as

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Speaker 1: to how fast Indiana State wants to play. Their adjusted

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Speaker 1: tempo is thirtieth in the country. Again, when one team

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Speaker 1: really wants to run, the other one may want to

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Speaker 1: slow it down. But that's not how Michigan State has

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Speaker 1: played recently. Michigan State actually has kind of gone a

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Speaker 1: bit more up tempo in Michigan State has been able

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Speaker 1: to score. I don't really love the defense for Indiana

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Speaker 1: State either, Okay, now, one fifty one, fifty one forty nine,

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Speaker 1: shop around and see what number you can find for

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Speaker 1: this game, because I think it really does matter. I

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Speaker 1: have one fifty okay at DraftKings, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: good to jump on that. But I mean Ken Palm

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Speaker 1: has his AD one forty nine. So we're talking about

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Speaker 1: one free throw here. It's right on the number. Indiana

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Speaker 1: State is five and two this year on the road

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Speaker 1: to the over. Yes, Michigan State is five and three

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Speaker 1: to the under this season, but like I mentioned, last

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Speaker 1: four games have gone over. For of the last five

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Speaker 1: games have gone over for Indiana State. We need the

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Speaker 1: Sycamores to score here, Okay, I think Michigan State is

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Speaker 1: going to score. Going to need the Sycamores to score

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Speaker 1: thirty third best offense efficiency in the country, the number

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Speaker 1: one effective field goal percentage team in the nation, Indiana State.

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Speaker 1: They take phenomenal shots. They hit a ton of shots,

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Speaker 1: and they're going to be tested up against Michigan State,

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Speaker 1: who have the sixteenth best and effective field goal percentage defensively,

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Speaker 1: third best three point percentage in the country. Indiana State

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Speaker 1: up against the fifty first defensively in Michigan State, sixth

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Speaker 1: best at two point percentage, Indiana State up against the

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Speaker 1: eighteenth best for Michigan State. Now on the other side,

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Speaker 1: efficiency Michigan State wise thirty eighth better best in efficiency

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Speaker 1: up against one hundred and second defense efficiency, effective field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage sixty fourth to one twenty eight, and we've

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Speaker 1: got two point percentages and three point percentages. Michigan State

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Speaker 1: is I'm not shot the three well this year at all.

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Speaker 1: Is the one kind of caveat about the bet going

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Speaker 1: over one fifty is the is the three point shooting,

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Speaker 1: which is a little scary for Michigan State. Need that

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Speaker 1: to go down here with an open looks eighty seventh

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Speaker 1: and one hundred and fifty fifth and two point defense

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Speaker 1: sixty first for Michigan State. So they get too good

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Speaker 1: two point shots. They hit a bunch of two point shots.

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Speaker 1: This will come down to Indiana State's ability to score

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Speaker 1: in East Lansing. Okay, again, I think plus eight and

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Speaker 1: a half plus nine is very very live. But I

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Speaker 1: am gonna go ahead and bet the over on this

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Speaker 1: game instead and just say I think we're gonna see offense.

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Speaker 1: And I know it's crazy to go Matt offense in

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Speaker 1: a Michigan State game. Yes, I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: offense between Indiana State and Michigan State. But we're gonna

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Speaker 1: need Indiana State to get to the bucket and hit

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Speaker 1: threes and score. That happens, this game's going over. I'm

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Speaker 1: very confident Michigan State is gonna score here. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: score a bunch of points. So I'm ice cold. I'm

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Speaker 1: firing on over. At least it'll be more fun to

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Speaker 1: watch than firing on unders, because firing on unders when

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Speaker 1: your ice cold is no fun. Saturday with three bets

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Speaker 1: for you guys. Over twenty eight and a half. The

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Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys up against the Detroit Lions here in the

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Speaker 1: NFL for one point one units. The Creighton Blue Jays

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Speaker 1: taking on the Marquette Golden Eagles. We are going over

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Speaker 1: in that game over one forty eight and a half

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Speaker 1: in Indiana State at Michigan State. We are going over

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Speaker 1: one point fifty here in that game. Three overs to basketball,

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Speaker 1: one football, three point three units in play for us here.

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Speaker 1: Bet under all of them, because the way I'm running,

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Speaker 1: bet under an all of them. And you may I

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Speaker 1: may walk you guys right to the window to cash

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Speaker 1: some tickets just where I'm going here, just how I'm running.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully when I'm done, we can go watch some hockey

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Speaker 1: and we get both gifts, and we get the gift

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Speaker 1: Parley to come in. Hopefully that hit. We'll see about that.

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Speaker 1: But if not, maybe Radford pulls a miracle here in

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Speaker 1: the second half and comes back up against Clemson, but

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Speaker 1: doesn't look like it, So we'll see what's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Min Is Matt Parolt. Follow me across all socials at

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Speaker 1: sports Doc Matt each Sunny morning the Deal Juice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I was being brought to you by olmah Steaks dot com.