1 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcomes to What Goes Up a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at 3 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and Donna Higher across Acid reporter with Bloomberg. And 4 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: this week on the show, well, the stock market hasn't 5 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: said a new load in about five weeks, and oil 6 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: is down more than twenty bucks below its peak this year. 7 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: So is the bear market over along with all those 8 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: concerns about out of control inflation and what the FED 9 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: will do about it. We'll get into it with the 10 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: head of investment strategy at the wealth management unit of 11 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: a big bank. But first I have to say I've 12 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: been worried about you. I'm gonna say I've been worried 13 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: about it because I know you live in the seen 14 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: of you. By the way, do you have air conditioning? 15 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: I have? Yeah, I have air conditioners, like in my window. Okay, 16 00:00:57,640 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: all right, are you asking because it's so hot? Because 17 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: it's hot. Now, I'm not as as worried about you. 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: I feel like you city slickers don't have the all 19 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: the appliances you need to live. Sometimes we don't, like 20 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: everybody probably needs a blender or like a vacuum, you know, 21 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: I'm thinking of the big ticket and whatever people hipster's 22 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: is okay to call you a hipster city city slickers 23 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 1: here that out the suburbs, I have central air, a 24 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: washer dry. Don't tell me about the wash dishwasher. You're like, 25 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: what are you some kind of billionaire with Yeah, with 26 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,320 Speaker 1: a washer dry, like the air conditioning, yes, everybody needs 27 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: it right now. At least you have an air conditioner, 28 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: right the washer dryer? That killed that? I would I mean, 29 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: I would like a billionaire out there in the suburbs. 30 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: You're so rich. Oh my god, dishwasher as well? Yeah, 31 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: I bet our guess has a dishwashing and a washer dry. 32 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: But I do want to I want to introduce Sean Snyder, 33 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: head of investment strategy at City US Wealth Management. Thanks 34 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: so much for joining, Sean, Thanks for having me. Sean, 35 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: we're all having this debate about whether or not we're 36 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 1: in a recession. I know you sent us a note 37 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 1: over that said one side will be wrong, which is 38 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: a very diplomatic way of putting it. So I'm wondering 39 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: what side you're you're falling under. You know, It's it's 40 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: really fascinating because you have the potential for two negative 41 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: really real GDP prints in a row. We had a 42 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 1: negative print in the first quarter. Atlanta said is actually 43 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: tracking at minus one and a half percent for the 44 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: second quarter, and most people think that that fits the 45 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: technical definition of a recession. But that's not necessarily true. Uh. 46 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: And we also have the FED that's in their June 47 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: f on MC meeting minutes that growth appears to be 48 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: rebounding in the second quarter. So that's what I meant 49 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 1: when I said one side will be wrong. It's interesting 50 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: that if you look at two thousand one, we had 51 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 1: a recession. We never had two negative prints in a row, 52 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: and yet we were it was still defined as a recession. 53 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: Or if you look at the global financial crisis, you 54 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: actually had the recession called in December for two thousand 55 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: and seven, but it wasn't until the fourth quarter two 56 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: thousand and eight that you actually had two consecutive quarters. 57 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 1: So this notion that two consecutive quarders negative growth always 58 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: definition this isn't exactly right. Uh. It's actually kind of 59 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: winds us better with payrolls, and we've actually seen payrolls 60 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: coming in, you know, really strong through first half this year, 61 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: average of four and fifty seven thousand jobs add in 62 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: the first half, and that doesn't line up with this 63 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,959 Speaker 1: nourse number session right, And we've been hearing a lot 64 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: about the technical definition of a recession. We've talked on 65 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: the podcast recently about what might constitute a recession by 66 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: the nb ER and by their standards. But so do 67 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: you think that we should be rethinking our definition of 68 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: a recession? And if we do, what does it mean 69 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: for how investors should be thinking about this? Well, I 70 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: ultimately is at the end up to the n b R, right, 71 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: you have I think belief eight economists you know associated 72 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: with it that makes the call, and it often tends 73 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: to the actual recession by about a year. So I'm 74 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: not sure we can actually you know, change who the 75 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: arbitr of that is. What does it mean for investors? 76 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: I think in general it means this notion that we're 77 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: seeing capitulation already, you know, might be wrong. We have 78 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: seen the market react very fast to the notion of 79 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: recession simply because the FED is essentially telling us what 80 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: it's going to do, right. It wants to destroy demands 81 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: so that it can bring down inflation. So markets have 82 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: reacted extremely quickly to the potential for a recession um 83 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: and now they're kind of just waiting to confirm whether 84 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: or not we will have one or will not have one. Uh. Traditionally, 85 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: if you don't have a recession, uh, you know, these 86 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: bare markets tend to bottom out so on between, which 87 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,600 Speaker 1: is kind of where we are. And if we do 88 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 1: have our session, there's usually another leg down and that's 89 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 1: maybe another five percent. Further defending, sure, I'm kind of 90 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: more fascinated with this rebound we've seen off the low. 91 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 1: You know, like I said in the intro, it's been 92 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: I think five weeks now. The middle of June was 93 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 1: the last low we're recording here. On Wednesday, July twenty, 94 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: were something like eight percent above that low. Now, at 95 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: what point, you know, do you go for saying, oh, 96 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: this is just a dead cat bounce or a bear 97 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: market rallies actually being a believer. You know, you mentioned capitulation. 98 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: Back of America's fund manager survey was out this week. 99 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: They said, you know, they think that this is it. 100 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: They've seen, uh, fund manager capitulation. How do you sort 101 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 1: of try to suss out whether or not that bottom 102 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: is the real deal or whether it's a sort of 103 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: a false bottom and we'll be back there again, or 104 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 1: we're lower in the near future. Well, let's say I 105 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: think it's interesting because the NASACK is up, you know, 106 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: about ten percent since mid June and leave June just 107 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: about eight percent since mid June. It's kind of interesting 108 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: that it really coincides with these five consecutive weeks of 109 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: gasoline prices to clining. So you know, I think maybe 110 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: they're kind of sniffing out that maybe inflation has finally peaked. 111 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: And you know, I feel sometimes like I'm the boy 112 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: who cried Wolf, because I keep saying inflation peak. There's 113 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: you know, we're near peak, and it just keeps going 114 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: higher and higher. And you look at Europe um, you know, 115 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: it's what's going on there with this heat wave, and 116 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: then you have potentially even higher food prices and higher 117 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 1: energy and more difficult times ahead for them in particular. 118 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 1: But I do think there are some signs that maybe 119 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: inflation hats peeking, and I think there's expectations. Um. We 120 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 1: saw the University of Michigan's consumer inflation expectations for five 121 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,919 Speaker 1: years four to calm down. Last month it was revised 122 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: from three up to three point three, then back down 123 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: to two point eight. Um. I was just in the 124 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: midwestern Wisconsin and people they're constantly mentioned to me that 125 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: gas has come back down, and it seems to be 126 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: a little bit more happy about it. Um. So I 127 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 1: think maybe the markets, you know, sniffing that out. And 128 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: then again, the earnings this season have been, you know, 129 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: pretty good. I do you want to ask you more 130 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: about earnings, but first I want to ask you how 131 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: difficult it's been to make a call on anything right now, 132 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: considering that the economic signals are a little bit all 133 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: over the place. So I'm just thinking about, you know, 134 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: if we were to have a recession, We've never had 135 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: one where the labor market has been tight, right, That's right, 136 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: you know, so when it comes to making calls in 137 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: this type of market, and you know, I think the 138 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: first half of this year was extremely difficult for almost 139 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: anyone because you know, bonds weren't performing in your portfolio, 140 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: activities weren't performing in your portfolio, and there was a 141 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: pretty historic decline in both. Um. The potential upside of 142 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: the environment now is that fixed income looks more attractive. Uh. 143 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: You know, I think bonds will like the peak in 144 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: two And I think if you were to see your recession, well, 145 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: then the fixed income side of your portfolio at least 146 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: provides you some sort of buffer. You also have higher 147 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: yields now, so there are some you know, attractive opportunities 148 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: their USB disciples, um, other areas like that. So I 149 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: think it's a little bit easier here. Um, it might 150 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: get a little bit more difficult going forward though, And 151 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: I think energy is a particularly interesting sector. Has been 152 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: one of the you know, few sectors that has you know, 153 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: worked uniformly throughout the majority of this But if you 154 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: do see a recession, when you're gonna see energy prices 155 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: come down. If you look at the past four recession, 156 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,559 Speaker 1: crude oil prices spelled by about uh and that's gonna 157 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: mean lower IPS estimates three. That means the energy sector 158 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: may not work as well um as it has, so 159 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: that there's gonna be some difficult things if we do 160 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: have a recession. Yeah, let's talk about that earnings outlook, Sean, 161 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: I know, you know, for this year, I think the 162 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: estimates are still something like ten percent a little bit lower. Fore, 163 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: everybody we talked to seems convinced that you can't believe 164 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: these estimates. They're gonna have to come down whether it 165 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: be you know, to your point, the energy sector, uh, 166 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 1: and that fabulous growth and earnings they're showing comes back 167 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: to earth or recession knocks just pretty much, you know, 168 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: everything out of order. But I also can't help but think, 169 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: you know, companies tend to beat these estimates, right, you know, 170 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 1: so if we're looking at say eight nine percent growth 171 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: for next year, even if they come down to I 172 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: don't know five percent or less, sake call two percent, 173 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: and that the market tends to beat those estimate it's 174 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: by five How bad of a of a sort of 175 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: rerating and earnings expectations are we talking about to justify 176 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,839 Speaker 1: what we've seen in this market? It just seems like 177 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: people have gotten a little carried away? To me, do 178 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 1: you think do you think that's possible? I think what 179 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: you're describing as a somewhat optimistic scenario, and it's not 180 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: necessarily because I'm extremely negative, but I think if you 181 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: did have an ever session in the back half, then 182 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: that would bring down those estimates, and the current EPs 183 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:32,839 Speaker 1: expectations of eight point three would calm down. And even 184 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: now if you actually strip out the energy sector, which 185 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: is doing phenomenal, we're not seeing tem percent EPs growth 186 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: on on a broad swath, we're seeing that when you 187 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: include the energy sector, you strip out the energy sector 188 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: in the second quarter here you're actually see negative earnings 189 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: per share. But you know, companies thus far and a 190 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: kind of maybe ten percent that have reported the speive 191 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 1: hundred so far this earning season have actually shown they've 192 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: been able to weather it fairly well. They've been able 193 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: to kind of handle inflation. The profit margins are do okay. 194 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: But again that that's not the most difficult scenario. That's 195 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: not a scenario where unemployment is rising, which is what 196 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: you would see in so you know, we're not there yet. 197 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: Can you actually talk more about what you've noticed so 198 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: far this earning season. I wanted to ask you if 199 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 1: it's the case that maybe the worst case or most 200 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: feared scenarios aren't actually playing out. And maybe the Netflix 201 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: report is a good example of this. But you know, 202 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: potentially there had been a lot of fear, but we 203 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 1: were what we were going to be seeing from companies, 204 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: and so far it's not playing out. I think that's right, 205 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: and I think what it's reflecting is the macro backdrop, 206 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 1: and I think it's actually seeing this play out in 207 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: real time of whether we're currently in a recession or 208 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: we're not in a recession. And I think earnings are 209 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: telling us that we're probably not in a recession yet. 210 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 1: So I think that's why they're coming across is a 211 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: bit more optimistic. But we kind of knew that we 212 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: may not be in a recession just yet. The consumer has, 213 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: you know, really strong balance sheets, monetary policy operates with 214 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: the lag you know, actually as much as a year 215 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,959 Speaker 1: or even longer. So I think this is telling us that, yes, 216 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: they're holding up fine right now. But what happens is 217 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: the SEC continues to tighten, tighten Titan, Well, then it's 218 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: a different story in three. And to me, the Federal 219 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: Reserve kind reminds the Esop's tail about the tortoise in 220 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: the hair. Right they're reacting like the hair right now, 221 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: and they're trying to act very very quickly because they 222 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: felt like they're behind the curve. But eventually they're gonna 223 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: turn to me to turn into the tortoise and slow 224 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: things down if they really want to avoid tripping and 225 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: having it's hard landing. And so far they haven't shown 226 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: any signs that's turning from a hair to a tortoise, 227 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: but I think the market is hoping that that will happen. 228 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: It's inflation does in deep peak and comes down, you know, Sean, 229 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 1: It's I tend to think of the say, the last 230 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: decade in three parts. I'm sure everyone does. You know, 231 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: we had the pre pandemic era, you know, the old 232 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: normal where you had growth in tech was you know, 233 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 1: outperforming pretty consistently. Then you had the pandemic where you know, 234 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: certain segments of growth in tech just went went bananas, 235 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: went through the roof. Now we have this after well 236 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: maybe the pandemics not over yet, but we have sort 237 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: of the over the hump of it at least, you know, 238 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: the trying to get back to normal phase of life. UM. 239 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: And we have seen value more cyclical UH companies outperform UM. 240 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: And I know you guys at the at the moment 241 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: at City Global wealth investors are overweight UM, a very 242 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: sort of defensive bucket of stocks, uh, you know, consumer staples, healthcare, 243 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 1: dividend growers, commodity hedges like natural resources. You did point 244 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: out though that that NASDAC is outperforming since the low 245 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: in June. Again, it's starting to look you know, maybe 246 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: like that growth trade is going to come back. That 247 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: to me seems very much a risk of a head fake, 248 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: I guess in this environment. But I'm curious how you're 249 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: thinking about that, that resurgence in tech and NASDAC and growth. Um, 250 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 1: you know, is the new normal gonna look like a 251 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: lot like the old normal once were truly past this 252 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:06,080 Speaker 1: this pandemic phase of the economy, or is it look 253 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 1: like something completely different? And how do you sort of 254 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: suss out when to you know, go from one side 255 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: of the boat in defensives or value back into into 256 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 1: growth and tech. How are you sort of thinking about 257 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: that transition if you are at all? Right, it's difficult 258 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: to call the exact moment where you should switch from 259 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: one thing back into another thing. But you know, when 260 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: I think of technology, and we've really seen a huge 261 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: divergence between the technology companies that you and I use 262 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 1: on a day to day basis, right. You know, there's 263 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: a handful of names that we probably don't go a 264 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: single day without using. And then there's also kind of 265 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: what we call the nonprofitable tech that have really been 266 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: hit during this downturn. And I think that's that's a 267 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: big difference, And I'm not sure that the nonprofitable tech 268 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: is really going to see the rebound and come back 269 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: to where it was in you know, maybe two thousand 270 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: one or towards the end of two thousand one. I 271 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: think that's going to take some time. And you know, 272 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 1: there's simply certain things that we may not need as 273 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: much anymore. We may not need to fancy, um, you know, 274 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: bicycle at home to exercise on, because now people are 275 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: going back to the gym, they're going outside, they're going 276 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: back to life. Um, you know, those types of things. 277 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to see that same you know, 278 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,719 Speaker 1: surge again. But you know, at the end of the day, 279 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 1: technology is where growth is. Over the long run, many 280 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: of them are much cheaper than they were before. And 281 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: I think if you have a long enough time horizon, 282 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: I think, you know, this is probably a good opportunity 283 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 1: to add to those decisions. Um, you know, is it 284 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: going to instantly rebound or you know, to the moon? 285 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: Not necessarily, but if you're gonna hold it for ten years, 286 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna be rewarded. To the moon, filled 287 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: out a Shawn spent on Reddit. I think we've been 288 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: studying a lot of time on social media I remember 289 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: those meme stock very well. It does seem like a 290 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: really long time ago. Though I still don't know what 291 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 1: diamond hands means. You'll learn if you spend a lot 292 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: of time on Reddit. Mike likes to say around here, 293 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 1: the people tune in to this podcast so that they 294 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: can learn about what smart people like you are actually 295 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: favoring in this environment. So I do want to ask 296 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 1: you to talk a little bit more about those defensive 297 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: equities that you do like. Right, So, we actually made 298 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: a few changes recently at City School of Investment Committee, 299 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: which I'm a voting member. Is one thing we did 300 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: is we brought down are overweight in oil field services 301 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: down to a neutral. Again, we think maybe there's some 302 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: risk there um if we do indeed enter recession in 303 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: three You know, I mentioned that oil prices tend to 304 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: come down when the economy slows down. So we've we've 305 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: turned a little bit there. We still have an overweight 306 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: and natural resources, agriculture, those types of commodities we actually 307 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: think are probably going to continue to hold up for 308 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: the most part. And then we like consumer staples healthcare. 309 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: Those two sectors are sectors that tend to have positive 310 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: earnings growth even if there is a downturn. So they're 311 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: one of those sectors that kind of helps you, um, 312 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: whether it's the storm and act like a bell weather. 313 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: And then dividend growers, Uh, those are you know, what 314 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: I would describe as quality companies, really strong balance sheets, 315 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 1: consistent dividend growth. Uh. And what they do is they 316 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: tend to outperform the more risky segments of the market. 317 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: Right so, Uh, they're probably down maybe a third of 318 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: what the Nasdaq is down this year, or perhaps even 319 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 1: a half. I'm not exactly sure. I haven't checked it recently, 320 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: but they tend to perform better in these times of 321 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: kind of difficult backdrop. We do like Chinese equities. We 322 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: actually added a little bit further there. We think their 323 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: economy is in a different position than ours is. We 324 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: think that their economic activity may have bottomed in May 325 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: and actually is potentially start to rebound. So we're just 326 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: looking for pockets of opportunities. You know, it's very desynchronized 327 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: kind of uh paths of the global economy right now. 328 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: China seems to be coming out of a slowdown, we 329 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: may be entering further injury slowdown. Uh. And then Europe 330 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: is you know, anyone's guests. But it doesn't seem great 331 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: right right, especially heading into the fall and winner, I 332 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: guess with you know, so many questions about the guests 333 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: supply us. I wanted to unpack you're thinking on China 334 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: a little bit, Sean, because I do feel like that's 335 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 1: a bit of a contrarian call right now to be uh, 336 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: you know, sort of bullish on China. How are you 337 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: thinking about um, sort of the regulatory risks um. It 338 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 1: almost seems like possibly that the pendulum has has swung 339 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: in China where you know, last year they were cracking 340 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: down on tech companies and education stocks and it really 341 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: spooked a lot of money out of the market. Does 342 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: it seem like, you know, uh Jimping has learned his 343 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: lesson and and is not gonna keep that heavy handed 344 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: approach for regulation going. And is that it all part 345 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 1: of your your thinking on on way to be bullish China? 346 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: You know, I'll be honest, I don't have particularly great 347 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 1: insights into the politics there, and I think that is 348 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: probably the risk you take when you do invest in 349 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 1: in those equities. But our call is more simply based 350 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 1: on the macro backdrop, and that we think that their 351 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: economy is kind of turning the corner, and that we've 352 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: seen extremely cheap valuations there, and it's really you know, 353 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 1: if you talk to clients and that reason, it really 354 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: feels like that moment of capitulation where uh, you know, 355 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 1: you feel that frustration and no one wants to come 356 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: anywhere near it. So I think that kind of sets 357 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 1: up for the contrarian call. Is there that idiosyncratic risk 358 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: of you know, political issues or maybe things that are 359 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: kind of opaque to outside investors. Yes, but I think 360 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,120 Speaker 1: for the right person still makes sense. What's behind your 361 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: call that their economy is potentially making a turn for 362 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 1: the better. Is it the COVID zero potentially going away 363 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: or abating or lessening, or however you want to describe it, 364 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: or is there something more fundamental at play? I think 365 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 1: it's at the expectations that the credit impulse and the 366 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: reason will pick up. So when you see the credit 367 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: impulse pick up and stimulus kind of take cold and 368 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: generally economy response to that. So, you know, we think 369 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 1: that their economy is going to continue to pick up 370 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,159 Speaker 1: steam here. Maybe they don't hit the five and a 371 00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: half percent growth targets that they want, but we think 372 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 1: that uh, economic you know activity, particularly GDP is on 373 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: the uptrend there, So that's that's really it. Yeah, Sean, 374 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: So much of the story this year has been the 375 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: treasury market. Um this really eye popping surge in yields 376 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,679 Speaker 1: earlier in the year. Uh, it seems like knock on 377 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: wood up. I'm probably gonna jinx it, but it it 378 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: seems like that volatility in in treasuries is you know, 379 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,959 Speaker 1: fingers crossed, Calm down a little bit, got the ten 380 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: years settling in right around three um our bonds attractive 381 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,719 Speaker 1: at this level, even though we haven't quite seen that 382 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: inflation come back to earth. Yet, Is it Is it 383 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: worth sort of making the gamble that these will be 384 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: positive yields if you buy further out on the curve 385 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 1: right now. I think that's the case. We We've done 386 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: actually a few kind of experiments or look at historical examples, 387 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: per se uh, and when you saw both stocks and 388 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,439 Speaker 1: bonds sell off by over four and a half percent 389 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: and during the same period, it's tends to set up 390 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: for a rebound in fixed income. And we've only found 391 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: five other examples in the past where we had, uh, 392 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: this first half of the period of six months, we're 393 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 1: both sold off uniformly end together. And what happened in 394 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,640 Speaker 1: the following six months is that fixed income returns work 395 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: significantly better, and they were positive in all the cases, 396 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: whereas UH stocks with three out of five cases or less. 397 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: So so our conviction is stronger on the fixed income side. 398 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 1: And we actually think that you're getting to this point 399 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,119 Speaker 1: now where if you do enter recession again, maybe not 400 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: quite the base case, but it looks like increasingly likely 401 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: in three Lenn bonds will add, you know, some diverstication 402 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: your portfolio, and tarsuy yields probably will come down. I'm wondering, Sean, 403 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 1: if you think there does come a point where bonds 404 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: might be more attractive than stocks even listen for a 405 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: long term investor, I don't think that's the case. You know, 406 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: that may be the case where the next year or so, 407 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: but I mean, ultimately, you know, long run stock market 408 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: returns are improving right now. So and I think we 409 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 1: have to remember that even during these really tough periods, 410 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: that bear markets are almost always followed by really lengthy 411 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 1: and substantial bowl markets. So after a typical bear market, 412 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 1: what you tend to see is that the stock market 413 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: posts about a hundred and six return um over the 414 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: next period after that bear market, and it sends to 415 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 1: last about six hundred or so trading days. So when 416 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 1: you think of launch from investing, you really have to 417 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 1: keep that in focus and realize that these bear markets 418 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: are part of investing and that they're followed off and 419 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: followed by bowl markets. So to say that stocks are 420 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: not going to be as a tractive fixed income and 421 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: I think it is probably wrong. Maybe they might not 422 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,640 Speaker 1: be the place you want to, like, you know, sink 423 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,359 Speaker 1: everything into right now. Maybe there's another leg down, but 424 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 1: I think over the long run, stocks are still a 425 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: better investments and fix income. Yeah, Sean, we're going to 426 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 1: get the uh, the next Federal Reserve decision next week, Um, 427 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: what is the What do your your sort of expectations 428 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 1: for that? I mean, I think everyone's kind of, you know, 429 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,959 Speaker 1: expecting a seventy five basis point, like, uh, you know, 430 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like a hundred is necessarily on the 431 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,160 Speaker 1: table as much as it was maybe a few weeks ago, 432 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,640 Speaker 1: when commodities and everything we're still hide. Do you think 433 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 1: they'll be able to react to this sort of correction 434 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 1: in commodities to the downside and and get a little 435 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 1: more dubbish for they just going to be peddled with 436 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 1: the metal still, at least in their guidance and in 437 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: their you know what pal has to say in the 438 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 1: press conference, I think they've they mentioned the fact that 439 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: energy prices have come off a this. You know, if 440 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: gasoline prices stay where they are currently UH holds through 441 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: the end of July, then maybe you can shave off 442 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 1: the air point three percentage points off of the CPI 443 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 1: UH in July. But again, we do have prices firming 444 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: on the services side, Shelter prices continued to rise. UH. 445 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: Those are things that operate with the lag. So the 446 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: way the CPI where the shelter component tends to lag 447 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: the national case Shiller housing indext by about a year. 448 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 1: So that means you're going to continue to see that 449 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 1: firming and shelter prices. So I don't think they're gonna 450 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: feel confident enough to back off. I personally would like 451 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: to see them react less to these individual data points. 452 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 1: I think that creates kind of unnecessary market volatility. You know, 453 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 1: anytime a CPI inflation print comes out, it's like, okay, 454 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 1: now it's a jumble rate hike or no it's not. 455 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: Or you could look at the University of Michigan Consumer 456 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,360 Speaker 1: Inflation Expectation Index. It jumped up, that reacted to it 457 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: raised their basis point rate from seventy five. Then it 458 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: got revised down to a lower print. So you know, 459 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 1: I would I'd like to see them kind of be 460 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 1: sort of stable here. Hopefully that's what they do. Mike, 461 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,880 Speaker 1: do you want to know a fun fact of Yes, 462 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 1: I like fun facts. My birthday is next Wednesday day. 463 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: It's going to be awful. That's a good day to 464 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 1: take off a right that should have taken off. Um. 465 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: But Sean, can you also talk about what a FED 466 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: induced recession might mean for unemployment? I know in the 467 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,959 Speaker 1: notes you had sent over you said it could mean employment, right, 468 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: unemployment rising to around six point five percent, and that 469 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 1: could mean that stocks could fall another ten percent or so. 470 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: Can you talk more about that. Sure, that's not an 471 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 1: official forecast. But what I did is I looked at 472 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: past recessions, and what you see is that the unemployment 473 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 1: rate doesn't tend to just pick up by a few ticks, right, 474 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 1: So we saw or heard fetch your Powell in the 475 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: past mentioned that they may need to continue tightening until 476 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: they see the unemployment and it rise by a few ticks, 477 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,919 Speaker 1: but that doesn't tend to happen. So on average, the 478 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: unemployment rate when you have a recession tends to rise 479 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: by about three So, you know, right now we're at 480 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 1: three point six percent. You know, I think there is 481 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: some rim between that and what that considers full employment. 482 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 1: You know, I think that they're comfortable with the unemployment 483 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 1: rate rising. Typically, you know, the natural rate of unemployment 484 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 1: is considered to be somewhere around five five and a 485 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: half percent. That's considered to be full employment. So I 486 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: think they can accept the unemployment rate rising to some extent. 487 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: But you know, you're kind of treading into dangerous territory 488 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: thinking that you can swerve just at the right moment, 489 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 1: so you don't, you know, as to avoid unnecessarily job loss, 490 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: and at some point it's does do that, then they 491 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 1: have to focus on their other mandate. Right So, right 492 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: now they can ignore the mandate a full employment because 493 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 1: there's such a tight neighbor market and they can focus 494 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 1: on price stability. But what happens when unemployment starts to ride? 495 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 1: Then what do they do? Which mandate becomes the most important, 496 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: and I think eventually it will become, uh, the employment 497 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 1: mandate and they may have to just accept the higher 498 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 1: rate of inflation. Yeah. Try and your notes, you mentioned 499 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: the PSALM recession roll or Sam? Is it? Say? H M, 500 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 1: I'm not sure how you pronounced it, but I believe 501 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 1: it's some some we'll go with some. It's it's interesting. 502 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: I feel like that's being talked a lot about these days, 503 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: especially because of this debate about well, what if we 504 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: do get two quarters of negative GDP growth? Is that 505 00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,919 Speaker 1: really a recession? People are sort of looking for that 506 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: an alternative uh indicator of it. And my understanding it's basically, 507 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 1: if you take what the moving average of the past 508 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: three months of the unemployment rate, UM, as long as 509 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: it's hasn't risen half a percentage point from the low, 510 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: the recent low in the past year, then uh, no recession. 511 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 1: Is that something you think the FED keeps a nigh on. Well, 512 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,919 Speaker 1: it was actually created by Claudia Sam who worked at 513 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 1: the FED, so I would imagine they'd at least be 514 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 1: aware of it. Yeah, you know, and if based on 515 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,120 Speaker 1: their tone and the things they seem to be saying, 516 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 1: they don't seem to think that the U. S. Economy 517 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 1: is in a recession, so it's possible. Um. You know 518 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 1: what's interesting about some rules is it actually kind of 519 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: lines up with beating economic indicators, so leading I can indicated. 520 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 1: The other thing. I constantly look at the kind of 521 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,679 Speaker 1: judge whether intercession or not. Typically on a year on 522 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,360 Speaker 1: your basis falls below zero percent before you enter a recession. 523 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 1: It's been really quite accurate. The yield curve is part 524 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 1: of that, uh, and right now it's a positives three percent, 525 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: so I think the really it's will be released again, 526 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: I think later this week, and I'm sure it'll come 527 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 1: down further than you know, cooling rapidly, but it isn't 528 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,640 Speaker 1: signaling a recession, and it tends to lead the samburu 529 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 1: li about nine months. So if you kind of line 530 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,880 Speaker 1: them up together on a chart, it shows that maybe 531 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 1: heading into three you'll start to see the unemployment rate 532 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: rise and this constant uh, you know, persistence of job 533 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: gains will potentially turn into job losses, and I think 534 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: that will be a moment where the market kind of 535 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,880 Speaker 1: has to get its head around and the sight as well. 536 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: And I think that's maybe when you see this turning 537 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: point where from the Fed and then maybe even more 538 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 1: so the markets and Sean. Just to wrap things up here, 539 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: and you sort of alluded to this, but I want 540 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: to ask you about your long term thinking. What you're 541 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 1: thinking about about this around the stock market for the 542 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 1: next decade, because I know we had Katie Kotch on 543 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 1: the podcast a couple of weeks ago from She's from Goldman, 544 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,199 Speaker 1: and she said, the next decade is actually going to 545 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,159 Speaker 1: be really, really tough for for equities. So how are 546 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,199 Speaker 1: you guys thinking about what the next ten years are 547 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 1: going to look like? Well, I think when you have 548 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: a bear market like this, I think returns and the 549 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 1: strategic returns over the next ten year period certainly improve. UM. 550 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 1: You know, I think for long term investor, I don't 551 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 1: think this matters that much. I think that you will 552 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 1: see a relatively strong bull market coming out of this UH. 553 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 1: And you know, I think timing the market doesn't tend 554 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 1: to work very well. I think when you do that, 555 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: since you simply missed UH, you know the best twenty 556 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: days your average return and you're turning from ten percent 557 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: down a six point three, And you know eight of 558 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: those ten worst days are right next to the ten 559 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 1: best days, so it's really difficult to market time. So 560 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:03,479 Speaker 1: I really think it's important to stay focused on long term. 561 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: And you know, if you simply looked at hypothetical performance 562 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: to say a ten thous dollar investment, since it's been 563 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: quite impressive. You know, we've made it through bregit, We've 564 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 1: made it through the global financial crisis, We've made it 565 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 1: through the annexation of Premia. In the past, We've made 566 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 1: it through a lot of difficult times, and I think 567 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: that will absolutely be the case this time around as well. 568 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: So I would be you know, I started at City 569 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 1: Group during the Global financial crisis. I remember March nine 570 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: when nobody wanted to touch anything, and that was an 571 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 1: extremely attractive entry point. So I think this will likely 572 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 1: prove to be that again. Are we at that point 573 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 1: just yet? Maybe not, but we will get there, all right, Well, 574 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: you know what point we're at. I think it. The 575 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 1: craziest thing there is Sean's bed on this show before 576 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,479 Speaker 1: he knows the rules. I've got a good one. I 577 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 1: think I do too, but mine is kind of gross. Alright, 578 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: I like it already. I like it already. Let's hear it. Okay, 579 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: this is about a family dollar in Arkansas a few 580 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 1: months ago. Oh, I know where you're going. They had 581 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 1: to fumigate the entire place because there was a huge 582 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: rodent problem. And when they came back, guess how many 583 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 1: dead rodent carcasses they found? Oh, this is at one 584 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 1: store or is that a warehouse? It was a warehouse? Alright? 585 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 1: How many? Boy? Um? Oh? I think I think it 586 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,440 Speaker 1: was a warehouse? Yeah? How many dead rodents in one? 587 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 1: Dollar club? Warehouse? Family? Dollar family? Dollar? Sorry? Dollar club? 588 00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 1: What is where do you live? I'm thinking of the 589 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,320 Speaker 1: dollar shave club. What's your guests on how many dead 590 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 1: rodents were found? Oh? Man, that's tough. I'm going to 591 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: go over. I've gotten they come in both there. That's good. 592 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 1: It's not a costco. If his costco, I'm gonna go. 593 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the under. I'm gonna go to fifty. Well, 594 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,600 Speaker 1: I obviously don't have a good poker face because I 595 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: just did a really shocked face at you. But no, 596 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 1: one thousand dead rodent carcasses. That's dud to inflation, I think. 597 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 1: And now the rats, the rats are actually back, so 598 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 1: all these workers are finding them. I guess the story 599 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 1: that I had said they found them enrolled up rogs 600 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 1: and in different items, and the warehouses closed one thousand 601 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 1: dead rodents. I think I think I saw them play 602 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: at CBGB's in the nineties. I'm not I'm not sure. Yeah, 603 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 1: I think she wins. That's pretty good. That's that's pretty good. 604 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 1: All right, Sean. How about you see anything crazy this week? Yeah? 605 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 1: I was actually going to go with the heat wave, 606 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 1: and then I actually do think there's maybe some financial 607 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 1: market implications. So it is beating about the heatwave, particularly 608 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: in Europe. You know, only five percent of European household 609 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:03,640 Speaker 1: tap air conditioning. Just sounds absolutely miserable. But so they 610 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: ended up having there's something called Durham wheat, which is 611 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,479 Speaker 1: a component used for pasta, and they had to harvest 612 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: it two weeks early and they yielded less than normal. 613 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 1: So as a result, we might see postive prices go up. 614 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:22,080 Speaker 1: Oh no, it's a very big down five uh and yeah, 615 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,640 Speaker 1: that's really tough. And another interest thinking I think is 616 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 1: actually air conditioning stocks are up about ten percent in 617 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 1: the last five bags. I was kind of saying, there 618 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 1: there's always there is always a bullmarket somewhere. It would 619 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 1: be good to be a traveling air conditioner salesman in 620 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,440 Speaker 1: uh London, in London these days, for sure. But I've 621 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 1: read that story about the wheat too, and I gotta say, 622 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 1: it's this whole food crisis thing. I feel like it's 623 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 1: going to just become a bigger and bigger issue going 624 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 1: for it. I'm kind of worried about that. But we'll 625 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 1: have to keep an eye on that. All right, both 626 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 1: are very good. I might give you your first win Bildana, 627 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 1: really my first one ever, that's your first one. I 628 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 1: don't know, is it's not embarrassing? Yeah, it is for you. 629 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 1: It's very much for you for um, not so much 630 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 1: for me. Not for you, ob all right? Have you 631 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: ever purchased a big ticket item without telling your husband? No, 632 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 1: you can confess on the show. I don't think any 633 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: big purchase, diamonds, a car, nothing, nothing. She was sean 634 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 1: you ever ever buy a big I don't even know 635 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,640 Speaker 1: if you're in a relationship, so I don't know. But 636 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 1: if I am indeed marriage, have I ever just went 637 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: out and bought something on my own extremely expensive? I'm 638 00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with uh. I probably know, like like 639 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:46,840 Speaker 1: a fang stock perhaps? Um? All right? What if I 640 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 1: were to tell you there's a woman in Scotland who 641 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: bought a castle without telling her husband, an actual seventeen 642 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 1: century castle she impulse purchased it. Um not a very 643 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 1: nice castle, but it is on a lot of land 644 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 1: about four and a half acres outside of Glasgow. Uh, 645 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 1: it's from the seventeenth century, was the Bishop of Glasgow's 646 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 1: residents at one point. And it's a mess. It's very 647 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: very much derelict, as the Daily Mail describes it in 648 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 1: their story, because you think of a Scottish castle as 649 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,959 Speaker 1: being all stone and just wood floors, but this had 650 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 1: either drywall or plaster walls at some point that everything's 651 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 1: fallen apart. It's it's a total mess. Several million pounds 652 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 1: to to renovate it. But what do you think the 653 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 1: selling price was for this derelict quote unquote Scottish castle? 654 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,279 Speaker 1: I think these are these things are cheaper than you 655 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 1: would think. You think castle, you think like princes and princesses, etcetera. 656 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 1: I'm going to go with like four hundred and fifty 657 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 1: thousand pounds fifty pounds show what do you want the 658 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: over or under on that? Wow, that's a good I'm 659 00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,919 Speaker 1: gonna go in there. We're gonna go in there. Yeah, 660 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:07,480 Speaker 1: the under is right, two hundred fifty pounds Derrick Castle, 661 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,919 Speaker 1: it's pretty amazing. It is a dump though, it really 662 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: needs a lot of work. But she's one of these 663 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,520 Speaker 1: women who's like buys old houses and fixes them up 664 00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 1: in turns about telling her husband airbnbs. I think the 665 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 1: rest of them she told her husband about. Is she American? 666 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,279 Speaker 1: Is she benefiting from the euro dollar parity? She's not. 667 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:30,760 Speaker 1: But her her investment thesis is that Americans love castles, 668 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 1: and I think she's right about that. I went to 669 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 1: Scotland one time and we saw a lot of castles. 670 00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,320 Speaker 1: We saw the money Python, Holy Grail Castle. That was 671 00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,919 Speaker 1: pretty good. So her she wants to turn it into 672 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 1: a wedding hall and uh and Lura Americans over to 673 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:52,160 Speaker 1: gets European travels sheep right now yeah American. Yeah, I 674 00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 1: can't believe I almost went with two fifty. Yeah you were. 675 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 1: You were in the ballpark though, don't beat yourself up 676 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 1: about you still want Yeah, that's true, thank you. Yeah, 677 00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:06,399 Speaker 1: and I lost on the one dead Rodents. Yeah, yeah, 678 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:10,799 Speaker 1: that was pretty embarrassing. I need to read a more 679 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 1: on that. I really got you on how many dead Rodents. 680 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 1: Can you dollar story? I think we've grossed out all 681 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,120 Speaker 1: the listeners enough for one week about John. Always a 682 00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,720 Speaker 1: pleasure to hear your thoughts, what's going on at City 683 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 1: US Wealth Management? And I'm sure we'll have you back 684 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:36,319 Speaker 1: on again. Thank you, appreciate it, Thank you, Sean. What 685 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 1: Goes Up We'll be back next week. And so then 686 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,839 Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and 687 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: app or wherever you get your podcasts. We love it 688 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,000 Speaker 1: if you took the time to rate and review the 689 00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 1: show on Apple Podcasts, so more listeners can find us. 690 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:51,799 Speaker 1: And you can find us on Twitter, follow me at 691 00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 1: Rea Anonymous, Bill Donna hirach Is at Bildonna Hirich. You 692 00:36:56,280 --> 00:37:00,880 Speaker 1: can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts. What Goes Up 693 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,719 Speaker 1: is produced by Stacy Want. Thanks for listening, See you 694 00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 1: next time.