1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: all around the world, and straight ahead on the program. 4 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: This week, a ton of economic reports for investors to consider. 5 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby. 6 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: In New York. 7 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,159 Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hedger in London, where we're looking ahead to 8 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,080 Speaker 3: what comes next for the Global Aviation Industry meeting in Lisbon. 9 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 4: I'm Ran Curtis in Hong Kong. We look at the 10 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 4: types of fiscal stimulus that Chinese policymakers might add to 11 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 4: recent monetary measures. 12 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 5: I'm Kaylee Lyones in Washington, where we're gearing up for 13 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 5: the second GOP presidential debate. 14 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 6: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 15 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 6: Eleve Them three own New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 16 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 6: Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, 17 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 6: DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around 18 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 6: the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the 19 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 6: Bloomberg Business App. 20 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: Well, good dat you. I'm Tom Busby. Last week, the 21 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 1: Fed hitting pause again on interest rate hikes, but signaled 22 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: that rates will remain higher for longer and at another 23 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: rate hike will likely be needed this year if appropriate. 24 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: This week, the Fed and investors get a host of 25 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,559 Speaker 1: economic reports offering insight into how the economy is holding 26 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: up as we head toward the fourth quarter, against the 27 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 1: backdrop of oil approaching one hundred dollars a barrel again, 28 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: the restart of federal student loan repayments, and some labor strife. 29 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: A lot happening in one week, and to try to 30 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: sort out what it means. We're pleased to welcome Anawong, 31 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: Chief US Economists with Bloomberg Economics and Michael McKee, Bloomberg 32 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: International Economics and Policy correspondent. Thank you both for being here. 33 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 2: We're glad to have the opportunity. 34 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: Well, Anna, let's start with what we saw last week 35 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: from the Fed. What changed in the Fed's outlook on jobs, 36 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: inflation GDP, and of course, how that affects its dot 37 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: plot as we look ahead to twenty twenty four. 38 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 7: Yeah. 39 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 8: I think the most notable changes in the summary of 40 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 8: economic projections is that the Fed has completely embraced the 41 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 8: soft landing outlook, so they revised down or really slashed 42 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 8: the unemployment rate for this year and unemployment projections for 43 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 8: the next two years. They now think that unemployment rate 44 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:20,399 Speaker 8: at the end of this year would be on three 45 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 8: point eight percent, and what that means is that it 46 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 8: would not satisfy the psalm's rules identification of recession. So 47 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:34,079 Speaker 8: whereas in the previous dot plot and SEP, the unemployment 48 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 8: forecast basically imply that the Fed sees a recession happening 49 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 8: this year, and looking further out, it also suggests that 50 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 8: they see that unemployment rate does not necessarily need to 51 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 8: go up in order to quell inflation. They now see 52 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 8: the peak unemployment rate at four point one percent next year. 53 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 8: So correspondingly, this is why they see that uh that 54 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 8: that that rate should be held higher for longer. So 55 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 8: in the plot, they still see one more hike for 56 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 8: this year, and they see that rates would stay at 57 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 8: five point one percent in twenty twenty four and on 58 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 8: the upper threes in twenty twenty five. And so that 59 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 8: is entirely consistent and driven by the improved unemployment outlook. 60 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: And Michael inflation. They've also seen a little change in 61 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: their target for inflation over the next year. 62 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 2: Well, this is the part that's a little inconsistent. They 63 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 2: did raise their growth forecasts and lowered their unemployment forecasts, 64 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 2: but they also predict that inflation is going to go down, 65 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 2: which implies that this soft landing in this stronger than 66 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 2: expected economy isn't going to be particularly inflationary, which is 67 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 2: fine if if that's what happens, But then it raises 68 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 2: the question of rates. Why are you still holding in 69 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 2: reserve the opportunity to raise rates if you think that 70 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: you're not going to need it. Obviously they want to 71 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: keep their options open. Nobody wants to be backed into 72 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 2: a corner and suddenly have to apologize for coming back 73 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 2: in and raising rates when nobody expected it. But it 74 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 2: does suggest that they see a kind of new regime here. 75 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: And certainly the Phillips curve at least appears to be 76 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 2: dead at this point as far as the Fed is concerned. 77 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 2: Unemployment going down and no inflation at all, which is 78 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: kind of a major turn in their thinking. 79 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: And how about economic growth, because we get a GDP 80 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: read for the Springs second quarter for this year, but 81 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 1: what's their projection change on growth? 82 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 2: Well, they raised their growth forecasts significantly, more than doubled 83 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 2: it for this year and then raised it by four 84 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 2: tenths for next year to one and a half percent. 85 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 2: That seems reasonable given what we are seeing in the 86 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 2: economy right now, although, as Jim Bullard cautioned me this week, 87 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 2: there's always recency by in your forecast and you're looking 88 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: at the most recent numbers, so something could go wrong. 89 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 2: And that's where I turn it over to Anna, because 90 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 2: Anna has been predicting something is going to go wrong 91 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:11,559 Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. 92 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, Mike, I thought what Mike's One of the most 93 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 8: interesting things that Mike just said is that there seems 94 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 8: to be a regime change in thinking within the FOMC, 95 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 8: really embracing this immaculate disinflation idea. But the thing is, 96 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 8: the outlook in the next couple of weeks is highly uncertain. 97 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 8: We have the potential widening escalation in the UAW strikes, 98 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 8: oil price going up to one hundred dollars per barrel, 99 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 8: and also potential government shutdown. Yet in the FOMC forecast, 100 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 8: there's a section that asked participants about their uncertainty over 101 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 8: the forecast, and interestingly, across all the economic variables they 102 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 8: indicate that there's less uncertainty. So basically Not only is 103 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 8: the FOMC projecting a regime shift and this immaculate disinflation, 104 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 8: they're really certain about it, with more confidence over this outlook, 105 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 8: even as the economic environment we're facing is actually extremely uncertain. 106 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 8: In the next couple of weeks. 107 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: Wow, And in this next week, we're going to see 108 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: something that could change things. It's the Fed's preferred measure 109 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 1: of inflation, the personal consumption Core price Index. Mike, I 110 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: know this is closely watched by you as well. What 111 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 1: are we looking at because now we'll shift from what 112 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: happened to what we're going to see ahead this week. 113 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 2: Well, there's two reports next Friday. One is on a PCEE, 114 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,239 Speaker 2: which a lot of people will be watching. Of course 115 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 2: at the FED, the expectation is we're going to see 116 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 2: a rise in the headline number brought about by rising 117 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 2: energy prices. It's the core that the FED is going 118 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 2: to be focused on, and there economists see no change 119 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 2: in the rate of inflation on a month over month basis, 120 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,679 Speaker 2: just two tenths of eight percent, but that would push 121 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 2: the year over year down to three point nine percent, 122 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 2: which is a significant drop going forward. For the FED. 123 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 2: To get the forecast, it has for the end of 124 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 2: the year. It probably means inflation needs to come in 125 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 2: a little bit even stronger. But the Fed is going 126 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 2: to look past oil prices they always do. They're going 127 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: to relate that to the economy by looking at the 128 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 2: later release on Friday, the University of Michigan's Expectations Index 129 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 2: Sentiment Index, and they'll be looking at what people think 130 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 2: inflation is going to be like, because if oil prices 131 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 2: keep going up and gasoline prices keep going up, then 132 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 2: what you have is a question about inflation expectations becoming unanchored. 133 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 2: So they'll want to make sure that people aren't starting 134 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 2: to think inflation's getting embedded in the economy. So two 135 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 2: important reports next Friday. Also as part of that PC report, 136 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 2: we get personal spending numbers, and that'll be interesting because 137 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 2: we saw a little bit of weakness in the retail 138 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 2: sales numbers, but those don't include services, so we'll see 139 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 2: if people are still outspending or if they're starting to 140 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 2: pull back. 141 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: Speaking of pulling back, because I mentioned earlier, is the 142 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: federal student loan repayments which will start this coming week 143 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: by October first their due, and that may change spending 144 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: habits for millions of Americans who owe billions of dollars. Anna, 145 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: what's your take on that? 146 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 8: Yeah, actually, we have already as the student loans borrowers 147 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 8: repaying a lot of that loan starting already in August, 148 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 8: and so we estimate that that would mean possibly one 149 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 8: hundred billion per year less less in consumption but put 150 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 8: toward repaying student loans. So that could shave off as 151 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 8: much as zero point six percent from consumption annually. And 152 00:08:55,240 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 8: if this change happened is concentrated with it and a quarter, 153 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 8: it could have a pretty significant close to one percentage 154 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 8: point drag on consumption. 155 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: Well, now, there's also a ton of housing data coming up, 156 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: including two reads on home prices in July. We have 157 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: new home sales, pending home sales for August, interest rates 158 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: solidly above seven percent, home prices just after all time highs. Michael, 159 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 1: what do you expect to see and is there any 160 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: good news in housing? 161 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 2: Well, there has been good news for home builders because 162 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,680 Speaker 2: people can't buy existing homes at this point. There isn't 163 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: much inventory, so they're buying new homes. So we will 164 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 2: get a report on new homes next week and it 165 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 2: is expected to go down a little bit some of 166 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 2: that may be weather related. We shall see housing starts 167 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 2: were off a bit, but likely weather related. We did 168 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 2: see last week the existing home sales numbers fall by 169 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 2: another seven tenths to just over four million, the weakest 170 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 2: basically this year. But prices are going up, which just 171 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 2: makes it even harder to get the whole industry going, 172 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 2: and it is going to take a while. One of 173 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 2: the things we don't know is how low do mortgage 174 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 2: rates have to go. In other words, how much does 175 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 2: the FED have to cut before you reach a level 176 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 2: at which people will go back into the mortgage market. 177 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 2: Right now is certainly the existing home side is frozen. 178 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 6: Yeah. Oh, it's terrible out there. 179 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 1: And Anna Wong, Chief US Economists with Bloomberg Economics, Michael McKee, 180 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent, A lot to look 181 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: forward to. I want to thank you both for joining 182 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: us this week. Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, we 183 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: take you to Europe and preview the World Aviation Festival 184 00:10:46,559 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: in Lisbon. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This 185 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the 186 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week, I'm Tom 187 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 1: Busby in New York. Up later in our program we 188 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: preview the second Republican presidential debate minus Donald Trump. But first, 189 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: the World Aviation Festival is builled as one of the 190 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 1: biggest annual events for the industry, and it's taking place 191 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: this week in Lisbon. For more, let's head to London 192 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak europe banker Caroline Hepgar Tom. 193 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 3: Global aviation faces quite a few challenges, sawing crude all 194 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:34,319 Speaker 3: prices at a time when airfares are already high, labour costs, 195 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:39,319 Speaker 3: squeezing profit margins, a sluggish supply chain, and growing emphasis 196 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 3: on the environmental impact of the industry. Now. I discussed 197 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 3: some of these with Bloomberg's aerospace reporter Kate Duffy. She 198 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 3: has the lucky job of reporting from Lisbon in the 199 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 3: next few days on the plans from commercial airlines, airports, 200 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 3: and all the other businesses that supply and support them, 201 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 3: including more than one hundred startups. I began by asking 202 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 3: her who she thinks is going to be attending the 203 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 3: World Aviation Festival. 204 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 9: There'll be a whole host of attendees at the World 205 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 9: Aviation Festival this year, from major airlines, airports, suppliers and 206 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 9: other aviation groups. Really so the biggest names from airlines 207 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 9: are Emert CEO, Tim Clark, IAG CEO, Louis Galago and 208 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 9: Ryan az Eddie Wilson, but a range of other airlines 209 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 9: are also attending, well known names including easy Jet, British Airways, 210 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 9: TAP and the new read Air. I've also counted around 211 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 9: thirty airports across the world or on the list speaking 212 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 9: on panels and roundtables. And then there are the suppliers, 213 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 9: the data providers, travel agents there and other aviation groups 214 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 9: speaking and attending. So I'm expecting some good debates to 215 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 9: come up over the two days on there. 216 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 3: There's a lot moving for the industry. What do you 217 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,319 Speaker 3: think the focus is going to be this year? 218 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 9: So looking at the agenda, many airlines will be discussing 219 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 9: the hurdles they've faced over the past year and also 220 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 9: how they're looking to overcome those future challenges. For example, 221 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 9: TAP CEO Rodriguez has an interview with Bloomberg Sky Johnson 222 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 9: about difficulties and re emerging stronger. And there's also a 223 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 9: panel oneable for seeable headwinds for aviation in twenty twenty four, 224 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 9: and it's worth mentioning also that it's not long before 225 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 9: the Dubai Air Show kicks off and exects like Tim 226 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 9: Clark may give an insight into what we can expect 227 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 9: further down the line. Of course, sustainability and the environment 228 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 9: with the scaling up of sustainable aviation fuel will play 229 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 9: a part, as well as supply chain challenges post COVID 230 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 9: recovery demand now we're heading into the winter, and of 231 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 9: course air traffic control disruption, which we've seen a lot 232 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 9: of this summer. 233 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 8: Yeah. 234 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:50,319 Speaker 3: Absolutely. What do you think the biggest issues though, are 235 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 3: going to be when it comes to the discussions. You know, 236 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 3: you mentioned a few of them that have really rattled 237 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 3: the industry and we haven't even touched on the supply 238 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 3: chain overhang. Yeah. 239 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 9: For many airlines the air traffic control disruption and strikes 240 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 9: in Europe were a massive frustration as they caused cancellations 241 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 9: and delays and not a good look when you're stranding 242 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 9: passengers around the world too, and the recent technical failure 243 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 9: at NATS in the UK sent airlines into turmoil and 244 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 9: it took them days to recover, which some bosses like 245 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 9: Ryanair's Michael O'Leary and EasyJet CEO have really criticized. So 246 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 9: I think some of the discussions will be on how 247 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 9: the industry can and should avoid these problems in the 248 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 9: future and whether that ramping up hiring or installing better 249 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 9: tech systems is the way forward. And as you mentioned, 250 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 9: another issue which is widespread across the aviation industry at 251 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 9: the moment is this sluggish supply chain backlog. You know, 252 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 9: manufacturers are lacking spare parts for aircraft and therefore airlines 253 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 9: are having to wait much longer to fill up their 254 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 9: fleets and it's frustrating for those airlines which are now 255 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 9: having to deal with some of the recently discovered engine 256 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 9: issues that require some engines to be removed and those 257 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 9: are the Pratt and Whitney engines over the next three years. 258 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 9: So there will be concern about the demand as well 259 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 9: for the next travel season. You know, summer was a 260 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 9: blowout for airlines with many reporting better than expected results, 261 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 9: but that the next focus is on how they can 262 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 9: sustain the demand in this winter in this winter season. 263 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, especially as oil prices are going up, and obviously 264 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 3: that has a huge impact on the industry. 265 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 9: Yeah, oil is the singlest biggest, single biggest expense for 266 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 9: an airline, so many have struggled to cope with the 267 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 9: high oil prices. Recently. You know, some air US carriers 268 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 9: slashed their profit outlooks for the third quarter. They blamed 269 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 9: one of the factors on being a jump in oil prices. 270 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 9: But when oil prices jump, SODA's inflation, and this means 271 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 9: that the costs can be passed on to the customers. 272 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 9: And at a time of the cost of living crisis, 273 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 9: you know, it's taking a toll with mortgages, groceries and 274 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 9: energy prices jumping and more price conscious passengers might be 275 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 9: thinking twice about spending on a lavish holiday or a 276 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 9: plane ticket abroad. So it's clear oil volatility is a 277 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 9: big pressure point in aviation at the moment, as the 278 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 9: outlook for travel post summer remains quite uncertain. 279 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, what is the passenger experience then? 280 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 9: How all of this? 281 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 3: What has it been like for travelers recently? Is it 282 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 3: the end of kind of revenge travel that we saw 283 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 3: post the pandemic. 284 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, so COVID nineteen posted a huge challenge for airlines 285 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 9: and of course passengers were severely disrupted by this, and 286 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 9: this year has been probably just as bad with the 287 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 9: air traffic control disruption and strikes that we've seen. In 288 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 9: terms of revenge travel, there is this sense that passengers 289 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 9: are spending you know, maybe more on onto some passengers 290 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 9: spending more on luxury tickets. But there is a concern 291 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 9: about whether price hikes will happen further and whether this 292 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 9: will put customers off in the future from buying plane tickets. 293 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 3: Yeah. Technology wise, then this event has all the suppliers. 294 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 3: So what sort of things do you think they're going 295 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:24,399 Speaker 3: to be demonstrating or discussing as the kind of solutions 296 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 3: for the industry. 297 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 9: There's lots on airport technology, how to make the passenger 298 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 9: experience more seamless, lots on customer experience AI, just making 299 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 9: the process for passengers more smooth when flying and cutting 300 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 9: out the old fashioned manual ways of doing things. Sometimes 301 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 9: we've seen this go wrong in the past. Some airlines 302 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 9: have trouble with their apps. You know, passengers off to 303 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 9: complain on social media about the accessibility of an airline's app. 304 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 9: So there seems like there will be panels on how 305 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 9: the industry can make the digital side more comfortable for 306 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 9: the passengers. 307 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 3: And there'll be lots of airport leaders there as well. 308 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 3: I mean about sixty percent of the festival is made 309 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 3: up of sort of European players, but also quite a 310 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 3: lot from the Middle East and the rest of the world. 311 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 3: There will be airports represented Dubai, Hong Kong, Winnipeg. They're 312 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 3: all speaking at the event. What sorts of things do 313 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:25,400 Speaker 3: you think they're going to be thinking about? 314 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 9: So from what the agenda says, airports will be discussing 315 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 9: how to make their operations more digital, how to improve 316 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 9: the airport experience for passengers through tech and sustainability. Some 317 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 9: airports have had a rough ride this summer, whether having 318 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 9: to cater for passengers who've experienced delays and cancelations, or 319 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 9: having to deal with natural flooding disasters extreme weather events. Others, 320 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 9: such as Amsterdam's ship On airport, have struggled with handling 321 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 9: luggage and that's led to a lot of passengers not 322 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 9: getting their bags on time. So I think how airports 323 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 9: are going to go forward with the tech and help 324 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 9: passengers make their travel more smooth is what is going. 325 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 3: To be discussed at the festival. Yeah, that was Bloomberg's 326 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 3: aerospace reporter Kate Duffy talking to me ahead of the 327 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 3: World Aviation Festival in Lisbon. She'll be there along with 328 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV's Guy Johnson. I'm Caroline Hepger here in London. 329 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 3: You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, 330 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 3: beginning at six am in London. That's one am on 331 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 3: Wall Street. 332 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: Tom Our thanks to Bloomberg day Break Europe. Ankor Caroline 333 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: Hepgar and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, the second 334 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: Republican presidential candidate's debate takes place at the Ronald Reagan 335 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 1: Presidential Library in California, and we will get a preview 336 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg's Kaylee Lines. I'm Tom Busby and this is. 337 00:19:48,400 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 6: Bloomberg Badcast live from the Bloomberg it a active Brokers 338 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,199 Speaker 6: studio in New York. Bloomberg e Lemon free oh to Washington, 339 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,640 Speaker 6: d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one 340 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,919 Speaker 6: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 341 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 6: the country, Sirius XM channel one to nineteen to London, 342 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 6: DAB Digital Radio and around the globe the Bloomberg Business 343 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 6: app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. 344 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global look 345 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. 346 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: Republican presidential candidates are gearing up for round two, preparing 347 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 1: for the second primary debate in SeeMe Valley, California, but 348 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 1: once again, the front runner won't be on stage for more. 349 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: Let's head to our Bloomberg ninety nine one news from 350 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:53,120 Speaker 1: in Washington and Bloomberg Sound On co host Kaylee Lines. 351 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's right. This coming Wednesday, candidates will take the 352 00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,080 Speaker 5: stage once again, although there will probably be fewer of 353 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 5: them this time around than there were at the first debate. 354 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 5: The threshold to qualify is higher. One thing we know 355 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 5: for sure, though, is that former President Donald Trump, who 356 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 5: remains the front runner in this GOP race, will not 357 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 5: be there. He's going to counter program again. Here to 358 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 5: talk about all of it with us are two of 359 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 5: our all star national politics reporters, Gregory Cordy and Ryan 360 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 5: Teague Beckweth, who are here with me in Washington. So, Ryan, 361 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 5: if I could just begin with you, who has the 362 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 5: most to gain or lose at this point in the 363 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 5: election cycle, given what we're seeing and polling lately. How 364 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 5: polls have changed since the first debate. Who needs this 365 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 5: to work out in round two? 366 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 10: I mean, this is a shot for Ron DeSantis to 367 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 10: try to kind of revitalize his campaign. At this point, 368 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 10: he is polling about as far behind Donald Trump as 369 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 10: Robert F. Kennedy Junior is polling behind Joe Biden in 370 00:21:55,520 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 10: the Democratic primaries, So he needs any sort of thing 371 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 10: he can get to juice that campaign. I think it's 372 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 10: probably more of an opportunity for Nikki Haley or Tim Scott, 373 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 10: some of the people who are running as kind of 374 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 10: the backup plan in case the Santus falters to try 375 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 10: to assert themselves, get some kind of moment that people 376 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 10: will recall. Haley I think had a brief moment at 377 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 10: the last debate when she was talking about abortion. But 378 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 10: I don't know. I don't know if they'll it's still 379 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 10: a crowded field. I don't know if they'll have that chance. 380 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 5: Gregory, what do you think about this? 381 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:36,199 Speaker 10: Well? 382 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 11: I think it's an important debate for everyone on that stage, obviously, 383 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 11: but especially for the ones actually at the lower end 384 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 11: of the pulling range where the Republican Party has designed 385 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 11: this debate season to start to weed out some of 386 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 11: these lower pulling candidates, and so for the first debate, 387 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 11: you had to pull with just one percent in three 388 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 11: national poles to get on the stage. Now that threshld's 389 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 11: moving up to three percent, we don't know what the 390 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 11: threshold is going to be for the third debate, but 391 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 11: it's going to be even higher. So for candidates like 392 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 11: Tim Scott who we haven't mentioned yet, or Chris Christy, 393 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:16,120 Speaker 11: certainly Doug Bergham and Asa Hutchinson, if they even make 394 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 11: the second debate stage, are going to be under a 395 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 11: lot of pressure to really have a turnaround moment, because 396 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 11: as soon as they drop off the stage, it's hard 397 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 11: to imagine them coming back. And then of course Ron 398 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,439 Speaker 11: de Santis, of course he has his polls have been 399 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 11: moving in the wrong direction. He needs to turn that 400 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 11: around and so needs to have a breakout performance. But look, 401 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 11: this is also a debate where who knows what the 402 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,400 Speaker 11: ratings are going to be. It's a little bit more 403 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 11: of a niche audience. It's gonna be on Fox Business 404 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 11: News as opposed to Fox News may have a smaller audience, 405 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 11: it's in a different time zone, so it's really going 406 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 11: to take a big moment for any one of these 407 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,160 Speaker 11: candidates to get the attention they need to be seen 408 00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 11: as a serious challenger to Donald Trump. 409 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, Gregory, I'm glad you brought up the candidates who 410 00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 5: are kind of at the lowest rung, if you will, 411 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 5: pulling at the moment, because we saw after the first debate, 412 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,399 Speaker 5: shortly thereafter Francis Sorez, the mayor of Miami, who hadn't qualified, 413 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 5: dropped out of the race. And I personally have asked 414 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 5: Burgham and Putchison if they would drop out if they 415 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 5: didn't qualify for the second They didn't tell me yes, 416 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 5: But I guess we'll all kind of have to wait 417 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 5: and see on that one. But is this the point? 418 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 5: Are we now at the point of the race where 419 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 5: we will start to see more of a thinning of 420 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 5: a field, perhaps like many candidates dropping at once, Gregory, Yeah. 421 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 11: I mean, I think the lesson that the Republican Party 422 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:35,199 Speaker 11: learned through twenty sixteen is that having too many candidates 423 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 11: in the field. And remember at this point in twenty fifteen, 424 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 11: we had what seventeen different candidates. 425 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 5: Yeah, two different stages were required. 426 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 11: Do you needed to spread the debate over two different nights? 427 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 11: There was a so called kids table debate, right, and 428 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 11: that was just untenable, and the Republican Party decided we're 429 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 11: not going to have that situation again, because that's a 430 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 11: situation that it led to this, really the Trump vote 431 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 11: and then the anti Trump vote being divide over two 432 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 11: or three different candidates. Trump was able to divide and conquer. 433 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,479 Speaker 11: Trump may still yet be able to divide and conquer. 434 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 11: But the idea is, you need to present Republican voters 435 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 11: with a smaller menu of choices or else really it's 436 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 11: going to be Trump by default. 437 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,719 Speaker 5: So he brings up Trump Ryan, who was the elephant 438 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 5: not in the room, but very much in the room 439 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:23,959 Speaker 5: at the first debate, and this is going to be 440 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 5: the same thing, right, He's not going to be there 441 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 5: again once again. He's counter programming, this time by being 442 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 5: in Detroit to talk to the United Auto Workers. Talk 443 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 5: to us about the effect of that. 444 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, well, obviously it robs the room of 445 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,879 Speaker 10: a lot of the crackle and electricity that you get 446 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 10: from having a real, live debate, you know, I mean 447 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,679 Speaker 10: having a bunch of people sort of arguing intramurally. I 448 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 10: think it hurt him a little bit in the last 449 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,120 Speaker 10: time because having all these people on stage talking amongst themselves, 450 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 10: even though they were often talking about him without him there, 451 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 10: I think kind of was the first glimpse you might 452 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 10: have at a post Trump Republic party and what that 453 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,239 Speaker 10: might look like and what the debates it might have, 454 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,959 Speaker 10: you know, But it also means that the people who 455 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 10: are tuning in to watch this are like, really not normal. 456 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 10: I include myself in that, you know, I mean being 457 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 10: paid to watch it. It's my job. But like, you know, 458 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 10: who's going to turn into watch a debate without the 459 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 10: front runner in it. It's going to be like a 460 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 10: really select audience of kind of people who are really 461 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,120 Speaker 10: into politics. So that's why I think probably the more 462 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,399 Speaker 10: important thing at the debate will be to score the 463 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:35,199 Speaker 10: kind of memorable moment that gets replayed on TV, that 464 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 10: gets goes viral on social media, so that the people 465 00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 10: who aren't tuning into this see that, because that's a 466 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 10: chance for some free publicity, and I think it's also 467 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 10: a chance for you to create some content for your 468 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:53,360 Speaker 10: super pac to use. The Desanta super Pac has done 469 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 10: an ad that just basically featured his response to a 470 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,440 Speaker 10: question about the border with Mexico. You know, they basically 471 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 10: turned that into an ad and that's a great way 472 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 10: for him to not coordinate with them, which he's not 473 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 10: legally allowed to do, by putting this out in the 474 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 10: public domain and them to borrow that. So I think 475 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 10: it may be more important to have a moment than 476 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 10: to actually do well over the entire debate. 477 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 5: You have me Ryan thinking back to some of the 478 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 5: moments of the first debate that at least stick out 479 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 5: in my mind, one of them being former Governor Chris 480 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 5: Christi telling Vivek Ramaswami he sounded like chat gpt. Another 481 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 5: being former Governor Nikki Haley telling Vivek Ramaswami that he 482 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,719 Speaker 5: has no foreign policy experience, and it shows those were 483 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:37,919 Speaker 5: kind of two SoundBite moments, if you will. That's what 484 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 5: we would call it in my TV world or radio 485 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,879 Speaker 5: world as well. Are we still talking about Ramaswami in 486 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:45,880 Speaker 5: the same way, Gregory? It seems like he did get 487 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 5: that kind of spike at least in you know, being 488 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,760 Speaker 5: something people were talking about on social media and the 489 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,160 Speaker 5: immediate aftermath of the first debate. But where is his 490 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 5: candidacy now? 491 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,640 Speaker 11: Every other candidate on that stage other than Ramaswami has 492 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,959 Speaker 11: a long career in politics, and has cross paths with 493 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 11: each other at some But if you had asked these 494 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 11: seven other candidates what they knew about Vivek Ramaswami going 495 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,400 Speaker 11: into that debate, none of them had ever met him before. 496 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 11: This is the first time they'd ever seen him, and 497 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 11: really all of them had sort of an interest in 498 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,440 Speaker 11: knocking him down a peg, partly because he is the outsider. 499 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 11: He was seemed to be the easy target. Ronda Santis 500 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 11: is certainly threatened by Ramaswami's rise. He's in third place 501 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 11: and rising in a lot of the polls. And for 502 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 11: the people below Ramaswami, obviously they want to be the one, 503 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 11: if not to get the second place. Obviously they all 504 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,280 Speaker 11: like to be the first place, but if not to 505 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 11: get a second place, to get the third place to 506 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 11: then be the challenger to Disantis. And so there was 507 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 11: that dynamic there. And frankly, Ramaswami is an easy candidate 508 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 11: to go after just because his positions on issues, as 509 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 11: expressed in his different books that he's written and on 510 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 11: the campaign trail are a little inconsistent, to say the 511 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 11: least in a little unorthodox, and so that for these 512 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 11: more conventional candidates makes them an easy target. So yeah, 513 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 11: I would look for that dynamic to continue next week. 514 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 5: All right, Well, I think it's going to be interesting 515 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 5: either way, no matter who's there or who's not. Looking 516 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 5: forward to both of your coverage of it when it 517 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 5: happens next Wednesday. That's Ryan Tegue Beck with and Gregory 518 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 5: Cordy national politics reporters here at Bloomberg, and Tom, we'll 519 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 5: send it back to you. 520 00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 1: Thank you, Kaylee. That was Bloomberg Sound On co host 521 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 1: Kaylee Lines reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom 522 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 1: in Washington, and you can hear sound on weekdays one 523 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: to three pm on Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on Bloomberg 524 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 1: day Break weekend, we head to Asia to see what 525 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 1: China can do to power up its economy again. I'm 526 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:58,959 Speaker 1: Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day 527 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 1: Break weekend, our globe look ahead at the top stories 528 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in 529 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 1: New York. What fiscal stimulus would it take for China 530 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 1: to power up its economy again and the timing of it. 531 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: Let's get to Bloomberg day Break Asia co host Brian 532 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 1: Curtis to find out more. 533 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 4: Tom China's economy has shown some signs of bottoming out 534 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 4: of late, but that doesn't mean that investors are coming back. 535 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 4: Foreign funds have continued to flow out. There appears to 536 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 4: be some lingering tensions between policymakers thinking that they're on 537 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 4: the right track and others who are calling for more 538 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 4: aggressive support now. In the past few days, the monetary 539 00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 4: policy had at the PBOC seid the central Bank has 540 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 4: the tools to get the job done, and the former 541 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 4: PBOC Governory Gung said the PBOC should ramp up policies. 542 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 4: In the meantime, the city of Guangzhou eased home buying 543 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 4: rules for non residents. Many investors out there are calling 544 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:56,200 Speaker 4: for more fiscal support. We heard from Helen Ju at 545 00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 4: n F Trinity. 546 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 7: I do think that monetary policy has already played its role, 547 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 7: and I think what's more important going forward is going 548 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,479 Speaker 7: to be whether the property segment can stabilize. That's going 549 00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 7: to be very crucial in terms of the fact that 550 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 7: it's you know, two thirds of household wealth. It's going 551 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 7: to be really impactful in terms of consumer confidence and 552 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,360 Speaker 7: spending and consumption overall. So I actually think that there 553 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 7: needs to be more policy support on the fiscal or 554 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 7: property fronts, and that's likely to come through in the 555 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 7: next three to six months. 556 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 4: Helen ju Managing director and CIO at NF Trinity. Joining 557 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 4: us now is Jill desis Bloomberg's China Economy and Government editor. So, Jill, 558 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 4: what are you hearing from investors about the kind of 559 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 4: fiscal support they'd like to see. 560 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 12: I think that at this point in this recovery cycle, 561 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 12: it's really about, I guess, trying to figure out what 562 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 12: else is happening with the property sector. I think we've 563 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 12: known for a while that, you know, China's been incredibly 564 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 12: reluctant to roll out any kind of giant fiscal stimulus. 565 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 12: I don't think they're going to be running around cutting 566 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 12: checks for everybody and trying to spur spending in the economy. 567 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 12: That I'm also just not even sure how effective that 568 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 12: would really be when you know, the type of massive 569 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,479 Speaker 12: fiscal stimulus I think is what China is really worry 570 00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 12: about because it's what they believe got them into trouble. Uh, 571 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,239 Speaker 12: you know several years ago when they've tried rolling up 572 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 12: massive stimulus. So at this point, I think that what 573 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 12: you just saw in Guangzhou, for example, might be a 574 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 12: little bit more realistic in terms of how exactly the 575 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 12: country is trying to use the property sector. So what 576 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 12: Gangho did, so this is one of this one of 577 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 12: China's four biggest cities, the Tier Tier one cities, they 578 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 12: just eased some home buying rules so that people who 579 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 12: are non residents of these urban districts, as long as 580 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 12: they've been paying taxes in the area for a couple 581 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 12: of years, they can actually buy property there. So buy 582 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 12: one home there, and so that's the kind of thing 583 00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 12: that maybe eases some of these really really massive restrictions 584 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 12: that have been on the property sector for a while. 585 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 12: And then you know, tris to spur spending that way. 586 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 12: I think that that's probably more realistic in terms of 587 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 12: incremental measures that way that you might see going forward. 588 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 4: But Jill, if Tier one and here two cities do 589 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 4: further relax home purchase restrictions, that might draw a lot 590 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 4: of funds into the big cities and away from the 591 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 4: smaller cities where you see the developers that have been 592 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 4: in trouble, like Country Garden and Agile. So is that 593 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 4: the type of thing that policymakers should do. 594 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean I think that that's the tricky balance 595 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,240 Speaker 12: part of this, right, maybe a reason why you're not 596 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:25,200 Speaker 12: seeing massive amount of rollbacks in terms of policies. I mean, 597 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 12: at this point, look what Guangzhou just did, for example. 598 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 12: I mean that's easing some restrictions on first time home purchases. 599 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 2: Right. 600 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,880 Speaker 12: I think that we've also seen, you know, within the 601 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 12: past couple of weeks, and easing of existing mortgages and 602 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 12: such across the country. It's really about finding a tricky 603 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 12: balance because also just removing all of these restrictions on 604 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 12: how many homes you can buy, yeah, certainly could I 605 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 12: think kind of come back to bite the economy in 606 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,320 Speaker 12: a bad way. I Mean, part of the reason why 607 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 12: the property sector is in this mass is because of 608 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 12: a lot of speculative buying that really ramped up over 609 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 12: the last several years. You've got companies I'm promising homes 610 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 12: that they can't actually build in time. You've got people 611 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,600 Speaker 12: paying mortgages like houses that don't even really exist. So 612 00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,840 Speaker 12: I think at this point it's a measured approach that 613 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 12: I think the government is trying to pull off. But 614 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 12: it's very tricky here. 615 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 4: Jill, Thank you. Jill Desis Bloomberg's China Economy and Government Editor. 616 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,240 Speaker 4: I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong along with Doug Chrishner. 617 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,920 Speaker 4: You can catch us every weekday here for Bloomberg day 618 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,719 Speaker 4: Break Asia beginning at six am in Hong Kong and 619 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 4: six pm on Wall Street tom. 620 00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,320 Speaker 1: Our thanks to Bloomberg day Break Asia co host Brian Curtis. 621 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,560 Speaker 1: And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day 622 00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,280 Speaker 1: Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am 623 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,880 Speaker 1: Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and 624 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Buzzby. 625 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 1: To stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines 626 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,360 Speaker 1: are coming up right now