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Speaker 1: Happy Monday, guys, what's up?

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Speaker 2: Welcome in to another episode of the Daily Juice podcast

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Speaker 2: with me Matt Pereltz at Sports Talk Matt to follow

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Speaker 2: me across all socials. The podcast is sponsored by Omaha

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Speaker 2: at omah steaks dot com slash juice. Okay, so yesterday

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Speaker 2: was the lesson in hedging. Not a good day, but

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Speaker 2: a profitable day. So is it a bad day when

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Speaker 2: all the bets are wrong but you're profitable?

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Winning money is what matters, right, record doesn't really all

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Speaker 2: that matter? Well, how many many units? Idea is to

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Speaker 2: win money?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: So we won money yesterday one about point nine. Both

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Speaker 2: prop bets went down. That was a bummer. Kittle got

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Speaker 2: going late in that game. But San Francisco and Seattle

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Speaker 2: money line parlay hit and the Chiefs. If I had

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Speaker 2: laid four units on the Chiefs money line, which I

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Speaker 2: thought about doing, we would have come in and had

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Speaker 2: a much bigger would have been like about six unit

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Speaker 2: win there for the Chiefs. Instead we just win four units,

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Speaker 2: which I'm not gonna ever scoff at. Okay, but the

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Speaker 2: worst case scenario came through. Zay Flowers is going to

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Speaker 2: have a really hard off season because man, that fumble.

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Speaker 1: At the end zone. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they would have come back, maybe they wouldn't. I

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Speaker 2: don't know, but that was a huge play at the

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Speaker 2: goal line. Awesome punch out by the Chiefs forcing that

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Speaker 2: fumble Flowers with just and then the interception in the

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Speaker 2: end zone. I don't know what was that throw by

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Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson That made no sense to throw that in

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Speaker 2: a triple coverage blew the game. I mean, turnovers are

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Speaker 2: the game, right, three turnovers.

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Speaker 1: That was the story.

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Speaker 2: That's you know, good teams win the turnover battle and

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Speaker 2: the Ravens lost the turnover battle, and that's you know,

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Speaker 2: that's why the game so kind of a bummer, kind

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Speaker 2: of a third way to end that future because we

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Speaker 2: rode with it for so long. It was so fun,

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Speaker 2: but we hedged off of it. And that's the whole

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Speaker 2: point of hedging. When you have an eleven to one

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Speaker 2: like that, you hedge off of it, and you know,

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Speaker 2: it wound up being a winning day because of it,

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Speaker 2: because we had the four units on the Chiefs that

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Speaker 2: plus four and a half.

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Speaker 1: I tried to middle it. I tried to get cute.

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Speaker 2: It didn't work, but I had a lot of fun

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Speaker 2: doing it, and that's the beauty. Now, where does that

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Speaker 2: leave us in the futures market. We've got the future

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Speaker 2: bet on Arizona. We have the future bet On Creighton,

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Speaker 2: and we have the future bet On Marquette. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to shop around this week and I'm probably going to

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Speaker 2: add one or two more and that's probably going to

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Speaker 2: be it here. As we head to February, we start

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Speaker 2: to have a better idea as to who could wind

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Speaker 2: up being in Arizona for the Final four, and we'll

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Speaker 2: start to take a look at that because that's the

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Speaker 2: next really big future. And then once we get kind

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Speaker 2: of closer and into March madness, than we'll start looking

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Speaker 2: at the NBA and we'll start looking at what's gonna

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Speaker 2: happen for the NHL. We already have one twenty seven

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Speaker 2: to one ticket, but what Ella will look to add

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Speaker 2: right more on hockey and then we'll get to baseball.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's kind of We have one football game

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Speaker 2: left this season. It stinks, but at least we have

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Speaker 2: a ton of college basketball, a ton of NBA. I

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Speaker 2: got two NBA picks tonight. I got one college basketball

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Speaker 2: pick tonight. But I am going to tell you right here,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to give you a Super Bowl future right now,

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Speaker 2: or bet for the Super Bowl right now that I

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Speaker 2: have already made. That I think is worth jumping in

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Speaker 2: right now. This game. I like this game.

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Speaker 1: I've seen so much hatred for this game. I like

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Speaker 1: this game. Look, get over.

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Speaker 2: The Taylor Swift stuff, guys, Okay, get over it. Who

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Speaker 2: cares a right? Yes, she's shown too much, and yes

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Speaker 2: they're not showing her for us, Okay, and that bothers

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Speaker 2: us as guys, as football fans.

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Speaker 1: I get it. You know, my daughter's nine, she's watching

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Speaker 1: the game. Where's Taylor? Your girlfriend, your wife? Where's Taylor? Right?

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Speaker 2: I get it. It's annoying to all of us who

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Speaker 2: watch the sport all the time. And a lot of

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Speaker 2: Johnny cum Lately's are coming in who aren't watching the

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Speaker 2: game for anybody but Taylor Swift shots. That's annoying. I

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent agree, And the only show the good stuff,

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Speaker 2: never show the bad stuff. I want to see Taylor

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Speaker 2: when they're losing, Like, I want to see Taylor, you know,

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Speaker 2: if they lose the super Bowl, show me Taylor Swift.

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Speaker 1: That's what I want.

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Speaker 2: But they don't do that because they're afraid of offending

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Speaker 2: the Taylor Swift fan base because they're not football fans,

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Speaker 2: all right, the people who are there just to watch

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Speaker 2: Taylor you're not watching football, might stumble your way into

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Speaker 2: liking the game, which is fine and more the merrier,

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Speaker 2: But like your attraction to watching this game is because

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Speaker 2: your favorite pop star might be shown on camera for us,

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Speaker 2: but second or two right, but we all generally have

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Speaker 2: to get over it. Okay, it's two weeks to the game.

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Speaker 2: Got to just kind of get over it. But I

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Speaker 2: don't think this game's a blowout either way. I think

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Speaker 2: this is going to be a tight game. And so

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Speaker 2: the number settled at one. I took this at one

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Speaker 2: and a half. But I'm gonna give you, guys, I

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Speaker 2: took it at minus one twenty when it was a

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Speaker 2: one and a half point number. I saw it crashing.

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Speaker 2: It opened up at three. It just fell like money

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Speaker 2: came pouring in on Kansas City, which is fine.

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Speaker 1: I think that's fair.

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Speaker 2: I think this game should be a pick them all, right,

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Speaker 2: I think this game will wind up going off as

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Speaker 2: a pick between the Chiefs and the Niners. But at

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Speaker 2: one where it is right now, I can tell you

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Speaker 2: to do this. I took it at one and a half.

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Speaker 2: I got over seven. Tease the Chiefs up, Chiefs plus

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Speaker 2: seven and a half. Take the total down to forty one,

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Speaker 2: and go over minus one thirty six and a half

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Speaker 2: point teaser. Right, I think we're gonna see points. I

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Speaker 2: think we'll see offense here in this game. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's going to be an extremely low scoring game.

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Speaker 2: I do think there's the chance at the Chiefs. Look,

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Speaker 2: Casey scored fourteen points against the Bills on the road

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Speaker 2: in the second half. A right, they scored nothing in

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Speaker 2: the second half against the Race. The reason why these

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Speaker 2: Chief games keep on going under. It's also the chief

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Speaker 2: defense is a huge reason why. And it's nineteen and

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Speaker 2: one now to twenty one and a half was the

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Speaker 2: second half under nineteen and one?

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Speaker 1: That run.

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Speaker 2: Everyone will be on it. I'm telling you right now,

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Speaker 2: everyone will bet that that'll be one of the most

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Speaker 2: popular prop bets going into the Super Bowl will be

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Speaker 2: the second half under but it's the chief offense. It's

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Speaker 2: not very good in the second half. Now they get

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Speaker 2: a lead and they sit on it. What happens they're

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Speaker 2: losing at halftime? Can they sit on it?

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Are the raven are the Are the Niners going to

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Speaker 2: be able to score more than the Ravens did?

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens had multiple drives that just ended in turnovers.

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Speaker 2: So you know, if Zay Flowers doesn't extend the football

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Speaker 2: and make it available to be punched out, if he

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Speaker 2: does just kind of a barrel roll there and you know,

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Speaker 2: they walk into the end zone, it's seventeen to fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Different type of game, seventeen ten. Again, I don't think

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Speaker 2: that's how the Super Bowl's going to go. Be surprised

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Speaker 2: and the Chiefs will be able to move the ball.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if they're gonna have the same I mean,

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Speaker 2: look at what the Lions scored a lot. Now there's

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Speaker 2: gonna be massive conversations about what Dan Campbell did going

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Speaker 2: forward on fourth down multiple times and missing on into

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Speaker 2: then not kicking field goals when he had a chance

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Speaker 2: to do so look, I don't know. I mean, Dan

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Speaker 2: Campbell didn't kick field goals the entire time. At least

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Speaker 2: he was consistent, because I was yelling at my TV set, like,

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Speaker 2: can somebody in the NFL please realize it for down

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Speaker 2: two scores that the clock is the most important thing.

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Speaker 2: Like he scored a touchdown, Like, bravo, you cover, Dan Campbell.

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Speaker 2: If you had kicked a field goal with three minutes

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Speaker 2: to play, you would have had three timeouts down seven

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Speaker 2: with the two minute warning, you would have had four

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Speaker 2: stoppages of the clock. You could have gotten the ball

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Speaker 2: back and scored a touchdown. Instead, you just were like

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Speaker 2: being so stubborn, like we got to score a touchdown?

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Speaker 2: All right, dude, you lost Like all you did, you

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Speaker 2: played yourself into a cover. Congratulations, So your fan base

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Speaker 2: is happy they covered. Everybody in miss go to bet

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Speaker 2: the Lions at six and a half, seven and seven

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Speaker 2: and a half, you guys all covered. Great, your coach

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Speaker 2: did that for you. But the idea is to win

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Speaker 2: the game. If the idea is to win the game,

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Speaker 2: the clock is the most important thing. Hold on to

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Speaker 2: that darn thing. Make sure you have enough time for

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Speaker 2: the comeback. So when you're on the thirty yard line,

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Speaker 2: there's three minutes left, you have three timeouts.

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Speaker 1: Kick the damn field goal. Kick it.

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Speaker 2: Then here's the thing, you don't have to on size kick.

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Speaker 2: Then you can kick it out, kick it deep and

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Speaker 2: play defense and get the ball back and try to

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Speaker 2: score a game tying touchdown and then maybe you go

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Speaker 2: for two.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: It's like all these guys are all analytical this, analytical that,

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Speaker 2: and then when it comes down to like basic football strategy,

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Speaker 2: they all fail. And again you covered. Congratulations, I'm happy

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Speaker 2: for you, Lions fans. You covered, But like, if you

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Speaker 2: only want to win the game, what are you doing?

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Speaker 2: Keep the clock, that's the most important thing. Not you

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Speaker 2: gotta score seven when you're this deep.

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Speaker 1: No you don't.

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Speaker 2: You need to score twice. Oh, the field goals easier, really,

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Speaker 2: so it's easier to get the on sides kick back,

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Speaker 2: which is like one for one hundred this year in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. If you score a touchdown because you bleed

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Speaker 2: the clock all the way down and you take up

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Speaker 2: so much time because you had to get that touchdown, okay,

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Speaker 2: I mean it didn't work.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it would have worked my way. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: We'll never know, but I don't understand that principle. That's

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Speaker 2: how I would have played it. If I'm a head coach,

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Speaker 2: that's how I'll play it. The clock is the most

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Speaker 2: important thing. I gotta save time kickfield goal. But didn't happen.

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Speaker 2: So we lost on that bet. But we're up point

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Speaker 2: nine on the day, so that's not bad. But here's

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Speaker 2: the prop bet. Yes, I mean the teaser for the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. First bet for Chiefs Niners. Chiefs plus seven

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Speaker 2: and a half over forty one. Okay, you can go

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Speaker 2: the other way. You can go wonder if you want

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Speaker 2: and say it's gonna be a mimic of the Ravens game.

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Speaker 2: But I don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think both teams are going to.

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Speaker 2: Score here and maybe you know it goes over in

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Speaker 2: the first half or I don't know. I think we're

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Speaker 2: gonna see offense, neutral field and whatnot. I think we

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Speaker 2: see offense for both sides, both the Niners and the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: So one point two or one point three units officially,

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Speaker 2: So it's a Mius one thirty teaser, six and a

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Speaker 2: half point teaser Chiefs plus seven and a half over

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Speaker 2: forty one for one point three units all right to tonight.

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Speaker 2: That's a two week bet future wager in. You know

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna have other bets. Okay, I'm gonna wait and see.

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Speaker 2: I think we could very well see this game go

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Speaker 2: off with the Niners as dogs. Like it's right now

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Speaker 2: minus one for San Fran but this may go to

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Speaker 2: pick or it may flip to plus one.

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Speaker 1: Good shot this thing goes.

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Speaker 2: I think my gut tells me the closing number will

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Speaker 2: be Casey mius one and a half. That's where I

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Speaker 2: think the number will be at kickoff. We'll see in

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Speaker 2: two weeks. That's my projection, Casey minus one and a

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Speaker 2: half at kickoff.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about the.

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Speaker 2: Biggest game to night in college basketball, Texas hosting Houston

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Speaker 2: thirty six Longhorns on KEMPOM against the number one team

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Speaker 2: in KEMPOM, the Houston Cougars.

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Speaker 1: On the road.

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Speaker 2: Last game out, Texas lost eighty four seventy two. They're

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Speaker 2: now three and four in the Big Twelve. They are

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Speaker 2: fourteen and six over all. Yes, this game factors in

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Speaker 2: who are trend lose on the road, come home home dog.

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Speaker 1: Look.

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Speaker 2: I bet against Houston against BYU and it burned me.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. I'm afraid of this. Bet the numbers.

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Speaker 1: Five.

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Speaker 2: Kempom has this as an eight point win for Houston. However,

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Speaker 2: pace of plays a big deal here. KEMPOM has this

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Speaker 2: as a one thirty two final score. You look around

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Speaker 2: and this game very well. I mean the total is

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Speaker 2: anywhere from like one twenty nine to one to twenty

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Speaker 2: nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's really really low.

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Speaker 2: And I get why it's really low because both these

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Speaker 2: teams play at a snail's pace. Texas two hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirty ninth and adjusted tempo, Houston three hundred and fiftieth

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Speaker 2: and adjusted tempo. Okay, it's just but here's the weird thing.

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Speaker 2: Their games aren't just like automatic unders. You might go, well,

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Speaker 2: just bet the under. Okay, five and three Houston on

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Speaker 2: the road, seven and five Texas at home home last

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Speaker 2: time out against BYU game went over. The last two

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Speaker 2: home games against Baylor and Central Florida for Texas went over.

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Speaker 2: The last road game for Houston against BYU went over.

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Speaker 2: Now you'd say TCU and Iowa State both went under

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Speaker 2: one twenty nine and a half in one thirty seven.

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Speaker 2: I don't mind a play on the under. Here, it's

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Speaker 2: but I'm worried normally it's under and dog. I think

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Speaker 2: if I'm more comfortable not having to sweat out the

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Speaker 2: last two minutes with free throws and going like, oh no,

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Speaker 2: do we have it? One point thirty twenty twenty eight,

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Speaker 2: one twenty nine, Like, I don't want to get into

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Speaker 2: that because it's so darn low. I think, And I

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Speaker 2: know fourteen and six to the under on the year

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Speaker 2: for Houston and you know nine and eleven Texas. I

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Speaker 2: think the better play is just looking at the point

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Speaker 2: spread and looking at Texas at home. And I totally

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Speaker 2: understand Texas is only three and nine ats at home, Okay,

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Speaker 2: but they need this.

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Speaker 1: They need this.

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Speaker 2: It's going against you know, Houston here, who's three and

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Speaker 2: five eighteen on the road. They've covered three of their

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Speaker 2: last four. Texas hasn't covered in like, I mean, they're

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Speaker 2: cared one time in the last five games. I fully

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Speaker 2: understand this, but they match up fairly well against each other.

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Speaker 2: We start like breaking down the numbers with Ken Palm.

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Speaker 2: Houston's offense is fourteenth in efficiency, seventy third defensive efficiency

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Speaker 2: for Texas.

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Speaker 1: Effective field goal.

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Speaker 2: Percentage Texas eighty fourth defensively to one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 2: fourth for Houston, one hundred and fifth and three point percentage,

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Speaker 2: but two hundred and thirteenth for defense for Texas. But

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Speaker 2: here's the real fun one two point percentage, two hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty eighth to fifty eighth for Texas. Defensively, they

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Speaker 2: got to get after the boards. As we know Texas is.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Houston is an offensive rebounding machine. They throw

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Speaker 2: the ball up, they go get it. But Texas offense

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Speaker 2: twenty fifth in efficiency, yes, number one, I get all

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Speaker 2: the numbers for Houston are stupid, okay, number one adjusted

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Speaker 2: efficiency defensively number one, effective field goal percentage number one,

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Speaker 2: number three, intern under percentage, number eight in three point defense,

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Speaker 2: number one and two point defense, number one in block percentage,

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Speaker 2: number one in steel percentage. I mean, I mean, just

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Speaker 2: the best defense in the country, barn on. But Texas

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Speaker 2: plays the same way. They play slow, they play defense.

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Speaker 2: I think Houston wins. But give me the five points.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the home dog, Texas plus five here in

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Speaker 2: a big twelve dog fight at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas.

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Speaker 2: Here rock and atmosphere in state rivalry. Give me the

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Speaker 2: home dog Texas plus five for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: Okay, two bets to the NBA. That we go.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about Milwaukee on the road at Denver. The

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Speaker 2: number is four. Milwaukee on the year is eighteen twenty

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Speaker 2: seven and one ATS. They are eight and thirteen ATS

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Speaker 2: on the road. Now, Denver at home has not been great.

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Speaker 2: They're eleven to ten in one and they haven't been

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Speaker 2: great over their last ten games either. They're three six

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Speaker 2: and one. But I think at the time for Denver

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Speaker 2: start playing well. They beat Philly at home, laying eight,

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Speaker 2: they won by six. At home against Indiana, they won

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Speaker 2: by eight. Against New Orleans they won by twelve. They've

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Speaker 2: won four straight games at home straight up and the

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Speaker 2: number being four. Yes, I know. The last game for Milwaukee,

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Speaker 2: they looked great. They were at home against New Orleans.

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Speaker 2: They won the game by twenty four points. They beat

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Speaker 2: Cleveland by ten. They lost to Cleveland by twelve. But

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Speaker 2: this is when you see Milwaukee coming in, you get

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Speaker 2: Denver's attention. I learned something about Denver when they played

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Speaker 2: Boston on the road and they won that game outright

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Speaker 2: as seven point dogs. That's the last time they covered

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Speaker 2: by the way when the big boys from the East

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Speaker 2: come up against Denver, this is when they lock in.

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Speaker 2: This is when the crowd gets into it. It's a

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Speaker 2: home game, it's a short number. It's only four. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna lay it with the Nuggets. I'm gonna lay minus

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Speaker 2: four with Denver here at home. I know the numbers

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Speaker 2: aren't phenomenal here for for Denver, but I think this

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Speaker 2: is when they do start to really look at Oh right,

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Speaker 2: we played Boston, You played Milwaukee, You play Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: They won.

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Speaker 2: They beat Philadelphia in the last game. Chance to beat

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee here numbers only four. I'm laying the four with

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Speaker 2: the Nuggets Denver at home, minus four up against the

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee Bucks, and I'm gonna go to the Eastern Conference

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Speaker 2: to take to the Celtics against the Pelicans. Boston was

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Speaker 2: twenty to ozho to start the year straight up at home.

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Speaker 2: They lost to the Clippers, and they've lost to the

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Speaker 2: Denver Nuggets in their last two home games. They got

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Speaker 2: annihilated in their last game, lost by nineteen to the Clippers.

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Speaker 2: Porzingis didn't play. He's expected to play tonight after rolling

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Speaker 2: his ankle in the game against Miami where they won

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Speaker 2: against the Heat by thirty three points. They killed the Heat,

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Speaker 2: they came back, relaxed, and they got crushed by the Clippers.

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Speaker 1: You know that Joe Mizzoula has been.

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Speaker 2: All over this Celtics team, been just eating them alive

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Speaker 2: after what happened. Boston is thirteen to nine ATS. Yes,

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Speaker 2: numbers high, it's eight, I get it. But I think

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Speaker 2: Boston's gonna blow the doors off of a Pelicans team

360
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Speaker 2: that lost on the road in their last game by

361
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Speaker 2: twenty four to Milwaukee and at home to Oklahoma City

362
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Speaker 2: also by twenty four points. They lost to Phoenix by fourteen. Sure,

363
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Speaker 2: they beat Utah by twenty nine, but in three to

364
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Speaker 2: the last four games, the Pelicans have gotten crushed by fourteen,

365
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Speaker 2: twenty four, and twenty four. I think Boston goes off

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Speaker 2: and has a monster bounce back win here at home.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to lose three games in a.

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Speaker 2: Row ATS, straight up, even, I think this is a

369
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Speaker 2: chance for Boston to go and put up a number

370
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Speaker 2: here against the Pelicans. I don't like New Orleans. They're

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Speaker 2: walking into a buzzsaw here with the Celtics. Call it

372
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Speaker 2: a homer pick, but you lose two straight home games, Nah,

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Speaker 2: can't see it. I'm going with the Celtics minus eight

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Speaker 2: for Boston at home up against the New Orleans Pelicans.

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Speaker 2: All right, three bets for tonight Texas at home plus

376
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Speaker 2: five Denver at home for Boston and home minus eight

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Speaker 2: all for one point one units, and a teaser for

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl same game teaser six and a half points,

379
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Speaker 2: case plus seven and a half over forty one for

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Speaker 2: one point three units. Much more to come in the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl as we head towards the big week again,

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Speaker 2: this week is not that crazy. We'll have everything rolling

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Speaker 2: here for the week, but then we get really crazy.

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Speaker 2: I'll be on Radio Row. I don't know how often

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Speaker 2: I'll tape The Juice from Radio Row, but probably from

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Speaker 2: Radio Row. I'll tape it to a couple of days

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Speaker 2: as we get rocking here for Super Bowl in Las

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Speaker 2: Vegas for the first time ever. How about that Niners

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Speaker 2: and the Chiefs, a whole lot of red heading to

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Speaker 2: Las Vegas. Minus Matt Parol's follow me across all socials

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Speaker 2: at Sports Talk Matt every single morning. The Deal Juice

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Speaker 2: podcast I was being brought to you by Olmastaks dot

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Speaker 2: Com