1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jailey. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Right Now. 5 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: Emily Eakins joins us with the Cato Institute. Emily, you 6 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: are one of the important now analysts rather in the nation. 7 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: On our millennials, I know we don't know the micro 8 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: detail of the election yet, but that the millennials show 9 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: up and what do they mean to the results? Well, yes, 10 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: I mean evidence suggests early on that millennials were more 11 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: energized to vote, but I think they're more reflecting did 12 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: overall of how many Democratic constituents felt going into this election, 13 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: that they viewed this as a referendum very specifically on 14 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: President Trump. But is it enough? I mean, Dan Balls 15 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: just published in the Washington Post talking about that red 16 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: wall that hit the blue wave. I mean, do the 17 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 1: millennials have enough up to with the marginal help liberals 18 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 1: in two years? I think that it could during the 19 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: presidential year, but as we know, you know, mid terms 20 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: are a little bit tougher because of turnout. However, what 21 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: we have seen is that it looks like we're still 22 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: counting votes, but more people have voted, or as about 23 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 1: as many people voted in this election as in a 24 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: presidential election, which is quite astounding. So we still have 25 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: to wait to see how that shakes out in terms 26 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: of millennials, but their turnout was higher, um than what 27 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: would be expecting in typical midterm elections. Many just in 28 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: terms of the key issues that really attracted votes as 29 00:01:58,080 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: to vote for a specific party, was pretty clear for 30 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 1: lot of people in the last twenty four hours that 31 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: immigration meant a lot to those that voted Republican and 32 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: health care ment a lot to those that voted Democrat. 33 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: What mattered to the independence So for independence, obviously both mattered, 34 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: but perhaps two different reasons for independence. Health Care matter 35 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: quite a bit, but it had a lot to do 36 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: with costs and premiums going up, and so it kind 37 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: of depended on how the candidates framed the issue in 38 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: their in their specific districts. I think on immigration, though, 39 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: I think a lot of independence feel like the Trump 40 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: administration went too far, especially what we saw with the 41 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 1: family separations of supporter would you explain, and this is 42 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: from the Cato till I understand that if we have 43 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,519 Speaker 1: a vector of growing debt a vector of growing deficit 44 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: to GDP, when does the growthiness certitude drift away from 45 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: the Trump administration? Sorry, I couldn't understand. Well, they believe 46 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 1: in a growth. Mr Cudlow believes in growth at our 47 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: costs and if we grow, fix our deficits or you know, 48 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 1: the deficits will grow. Kato pushes against that to be polite. 49 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: When does that dialogue end? Well, just to be clear, 50 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: I'm a polster at the Cato Institute, so I'm not 51 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: taking positions one way or another, but I can tell 52 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: you what the data does. And then, Um, Republicans really 53 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 1: are the only ones that are caring about the budget deficit, 54 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: as evidenced by what we see, um, what people tell 55 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,239 Speaker 1: us in the polls. Obviously Democrats are talking about it 56 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 1: at the national elite level, but it's really only rank 57 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: and file Republicans that seem to care about it. But 58 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: even they have elevated other concerns above that. UM. And 59 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: so I think that's only really when Democrats are in 60 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: office that we hear a lot of Republicans complaining about 61 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: the budget deficits um and yes, I think that the 62 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: kind of the reason or the justification they will give 63 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: if they'll say, well, economic growth will get it out 64 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: of it. And it is we we are saying, um, 65 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: a pretty good economy of during Trump's tenure. But that 66 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean that's enough to get us out of 67 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 1: the budget. Emily, thank you so much, Emily Egans with 68 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: his Cato Institute where she just pulling and thinks about 69 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: broader issues right now from the shores of the Mummie River, 70 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: Fort Wayne, Indiana, Mark lauder h joins us right now 71 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: his service to Mike Pence over the years and with 72 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: lauder communications right now in Indiana, Mark lauder an incumbent Democrat, 73 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: went down in flames. Does that signal a different Republican Party, 74 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: a new nuanced Republican Party. I wouldn't view it as 75 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: much of that. I think this is really a correction 76 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 1: from a very flaw to cannidate that was nominated in 77 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 1: two thou and twelve that really just imploded there in 78 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,919 Speaker 1: the last months before the election inve which opened the 79 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: door for a for a Democrat to take that seat. 80 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: And I think this was Indiana basically showing a traditional 81 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: deep red state status uh and restoring them with a 82 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: with a Republican senator. And yet Democrats across the contentious 83 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: what I'm gonna call it for our global audience, the 84 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: eastern Midwest, the Great Lake States. Uh, there seemed to 85 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: be a Democrat tinge there. What does that signal moving 86 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: forward to two thousand twenty, Well, it's it's always going 87 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: to be a challenge. And while there were a lot 88 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: of great victories for Republicans on on Tuesday, UH, the 89 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: governor's races in uh in in Wisconsin, the one in 90 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: Michigan was really never really close. So that was you know, 91 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: that was something obviously we would hope for. But you know, 92 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: we also got a very good, strong Republican governor elected 93 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: in Ohio, which was a very close thing and uh 94 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: and close a number of positives. I'm one of the 95 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: ball state guy. Let me rip up the script here. 96 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: What did you learn from the state of Ohio? Florida 97 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: and Ohio really matter? What did Mark Lauder take away 98 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: from Ohio first and foremost that candidates matter? Uh. So 99 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: we had very strong candidates in both Florida and Ohio 100 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: in the governor's races. In the Senate race, obviously, with 101 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: Governor Scott uh defeating Senator Brown in Ohio was never 102 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: really a possibility. It would have taken a red wave 103 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: to to capture to capture that seat. So I'm not 104 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: sure we learned a lot more we had. You know, 105 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 1: there were some very good house pick or a households 106 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: in Uh in Ohio. So it's all gonna come down 107 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 1: a lot of times local issues. And these these elections, 108 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: especially at the House of Representatives level, are still hyperlocal, 109 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 1: and so you need to have great candidates who are 110 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: raising money, knocking on doors, doing those basic things. And 111 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: in this case, we saw that many Democrats outrage is 112 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: the Republican at the house district level, raw Republicans on 113 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: a state level and on the national level, Uh completely 114 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 1: swamps Democrat fundraising organization. But that's kind of translate translate 115 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: down to those those house districts. Not let's talk about 116 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: have you identified what a Republican president is running against 117 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: the ideas that is coming out of this Democratic Party 118 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 1: that the Republican President Donald Trump will be running against. 119 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: In I've struggled to get a coherent sort of idea 120 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: of what the Democratic Party stands for right now and 121 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: through the campaigning of the last few months, have you 122 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: got a good idea? I don't think so, other than 123 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: the other than resistance, which is really the only message 124 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: they have put forward is is resistant. It will be 125 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: interesting to see and this is and this is a 126 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: very important moment because campaigning is one thing. Governing is 127 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: something completely else. And do the Democrats with their new 128 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: majority in the House of our Presentatives know how to govern? 129 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: Which means you're going to have to produce budgets, You're 130 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 1: going to have to produce the basic legislation and come 131 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: into an agreement. With an expanding majority in the United 132 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 1: States Senate and a Republican in the White House. Will 133 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: they be able to to do those things? If they won't, 134 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: this could be quickly reversed in two years in a 135 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: presidential election here because there majority is not that great. 136 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: This has been great, Thank you so much. Mark Lauder 137 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: with us from a lot of communications, has work for 138 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: Republicans in Indiana. There now joining us, and we've heard 139 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: from discourse from Republicans someone certainly affiliated with the Democratic Party. 140 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: Democratic Party Laurence Somers joins us, the former Secretary of Treasury, 141 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: and also, of course the former president Harvard University, Larry Somers. 142 00:08:58,160 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 1: I guess we're all going to go back to our 143 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: general economics as we dash through grid luck. I think 144 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,199 Speaker 1: of your uncle Paul Samison, the Nobel Laureate, and his 145 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: classic text of what does Lauren Summers think of gridlock? 146 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: What actually gets done in Washington? Look, we just saw 147 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: a frustration election. People can't agree on it everything, but 148 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 1: for some things they can't agree on it. We need 149 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 1: to focus on combating the people be so frustrated. That 150 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: starts for raising the minimum wage, for adjusting for inflation 151 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 1: that it's been in a very long time. That means 152 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: putting back to protections in Obamacare so you can get 153 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: health concerned when you need it, which is when uh 154 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: you're sick. That means confronting the kind of excesses of 155 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 1: business power. Frankly, that we see, why should it cost 156 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: three times as much to get it in haler from 157 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: your kids in the United States as it does in 158 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: uh can Okay, let's look, Larry, this is critical. Let's 159 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: go These are issues everybody could be able to agree on. 160 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 1: And what we need to do is stop having wars 161 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: and move forward. Okay, but Larry, this goes right to 162 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: the point Charles Meyers mentioned this earlier this morning, was signum, 163 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 1: which is one of the two things we can do 164 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: in this gridlock as infrastructure and also pharmaceutical pricing. Do 165 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: you actually believe in then the gridlock, that we can 166 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: get a reduction in drug prices? As you allude to 167 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:34,079 Speaker 1: the inhalers. Look, I'm not sure what what Congress will 168 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: succeed in passing. I'm sure what the country needs to do, 169 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: and I'm sure what the vast majority of its uh 170 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 1: UH would support that. I'm sure what responsible officials would 171 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: find constructive ways to UH to compromise on prognosticated prognosticating 172 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:59,079 Speaker 1: Washington UH politics. I'll leave to somebody else the economy 173 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: part enough, Larry, do you really think that the Democratic 174 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: Party can become the party of fiscal responsibility? I think 175 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: the priority. Look, we've in the long run, their issues 176 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 1: around the budget deficits that we've got to confront. But 177 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: if we're gonna move our economy forward, if we're gonna 178 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: move our country forward, if we're gonna come together again, 179 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: fiscal responsibility for the long run is not the priority 180 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:28,199 Speaker 1: right now. Serving the interests of a frustrated, angry electorate 181 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: that whose interests have not been followed for the last 182 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: two years. Is what the priority has has got has 183 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 1: got to be When I hear people come on these 184 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: financials those and talk about how their agenda is to 185 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 1: have the FED raised interest rates faster because they think 186 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 1: somehow too many people are being employed um and to 187 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: cut and to do what they think is courageous, which 188 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: is to cut the Social Security benefits that people earn 189 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: forty dollars a year. And they don't talk about the 190 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: price of inhailers. They don't talk about what it's like 191 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 1: to live on seven dollars and thirty five cent UH 192 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: minimum ways, because they don't talk about the fact that 193 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: every corporation can contribute as much money as it wants, 194 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: but no employer will. But thousands of employers won't give 195 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 1: their workers the day off to go and vote, and 196 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: states across the country go out of their way to 197 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: make it as hard as possible for people in minority 198 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 1: groups to register, and they're not complaining about that. I 199 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: have to say that it's hard to focus on their 200 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: abstract long run financial UH concerns when they are oblivious 201 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:48,199 Speaker 1: to the concrete UH concerns that are hurting the lives 202 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: of UH tens of things and people who work for 203 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: their companies. So larry a couple of points you've made down. 204 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 1: I want to pick up on the point on the 205 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve to some degree, do you agree with the 206 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 1: President of the United States then that the Federal Reserve 207 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 1: needs to stop hiking into US writes I think the 208 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: FED needs to be careful and needs to be careful 209 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: and prudent as uh the day as the data comes in, 210 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: and very much aware that monetary polishing operates with a lag, 211 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 1: and so there's a riff that you're tightening, you're tighten, 212 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: you don't remember the lag, and you uh tip the 213 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: economy into recession. I think that I think that the 214 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 1: kind of FED bashing in which the President has engaged 215 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: is really unfitting of his office, and he's likely to 216 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 1: be counterproductive because it means that if the third word 217 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: of decide wanted to slow down our tightening, they have 218 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: to reckon with the possibility that they look like they've 219 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: been We may see that at eleven thirty today with 220 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 1: a press conference. Lawrence Summers of Harvard, of course, the 221 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: former Secretary of Treasure at the United States with US 222 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 1: this morning, Larry, you are identified with secular stagnation. We 223 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 1: got X number of quarters of growth. Every single guest 224 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,839 Speaker 1: John Farren Ice speak with believes we will see a 225 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 1: vector south in g d P in economic growth. Are 226 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: we gonna enjoy summer's secular stagnation here with a lesser 227 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: growth and a high inflation Off of those deficits, I 228 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: think growth is likely to slow. I'm not worried about 229 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: inflation reaching UH dangerous levels in placient has been below 230 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: the two percent target for a decade down. It may 231 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: creep a little bit above the two percent PLACER target. 232 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: I don't think that's a serious problem. I think the 233 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: serious problems are around the things i've been UH talking 234 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: about the lives of citizens who are so obviously frustrated 235 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: with what's happening in our country at averaging UH to 236 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: be frustrated. And I think we've got to focus on 237 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: maintaining the momentum of growth. But if we can address 238 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: some of the issues I've talked about, like UH the 239 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: minimum ways, like making necessary investments in our country's infrastructure 240 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: which enables us UH to compete, we can raise the 241 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: country's long run growth, right, But I don't think sugar high, 242 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: sugar high approach, who's based on corporate tax cuts, the 243 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: companies that have plenty of cash is gonna do a 244 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: lot to push the economy forwards. Secretary Summers, thank you 245 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: so much. Laurence Summers with the course from Harvard University 246 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: joining us. Now we we we've been really trying to 247 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: get guests with a different twist and particularly operational guests 248 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: of how you get elected. We've done that on the 249 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: red side and the blue side. Now Robbie Mook joins us. 250 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: Of course you CINO and CNN, but far more Robbie 251 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: Mook working with Secretary Clinton in her two thousand sixteen campaign. 252 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: What was the campaign tactical execution, Robbie that you saw 253 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: last night? What paid off? That's a great question and 254 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: and thanks for having me um. I think, well, I 255 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: think Democrats stuff except in unexpected places in South Carolina, Oklahoma. 256 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: And what the candidates did there was run local races. Uh. 257 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: They spoke to their constituents as someone from the community. 258 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 1: They didn't allow interest groups in d C to push 259 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: them or shove them in some cases into particular policy positions, 260 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: and they ran advertising on kitchen table issues like healthcare 261 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: and job creation and education. Um, I think there were 262 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 1: there were. There were kind of two different campaigns going on. 263 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: One was on cable television and the other was in 264 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: these districts and and it was much more kitchen table. 265 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: One of the management things you have with the egos 266 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: you have to deal with is once they get elected, 267 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: you've got to calm them down and hold their hand, 268 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: or maybe they jison you out the door. How do 269 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 1: the Democrats move forward? Do you counsel grace or should 270 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 1: they move forward in the House with a certain fire. 271 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: That's a great question. Democrats need to focus on delivering 272 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: results for the people who elected them. And if you 273 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: look at the kind of candidates we elected, people out 274 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: of law enforcement, out of the military. Um. Their their pragmatic, 275 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: practical people. And so I think there's actually going to 276 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: be in a really good way internal in the caucus 277 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 1: to get things. Okay, let me cut to the chase. 278 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: That's very nice of you to say, what is Maxine 279 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: Water is going to do as chairman of the House 280 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: Financial Services Committee? I mean, are we in for endless committees? 281 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 1: In the back and forth? You know, it's almost like Brexit, 282 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: just the back and forth every day of the president 283 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 1: and his infirmities, or are we actually going to get 284 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 1: government done that advances your Democratic party? Well, I think 285 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 1: Democrats want to get things done. There's h if you 286 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 1: if you was into Nancy Pelosi last night, Um, she 287 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: didn't talk about investigation. She talked about, you know, improving 288 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,919 Speaker 1: healthcare and infrastructure bill, which I think there's there's broad 289 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: based support for across the country. Um. And so I 290 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: think there's all the chance in the world that that 291 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 1: stuff can happen. That the real question is as the 292 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,679 Speaker 1: president going to be an honest broker and and for 293 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: example on immigration, you know, he cut a deal with 294 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: Democrats last year and then walked away from them at 295 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: the last minute. He's just not a reliable, trustworthy broker. 296 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,479 Speaker 1: That's that's been his reputation all of his life. And 297 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: so I think a lot of this falls on him 298 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: to decide if he's gonna if he's going to be 299 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: an honest negotiator and follow through on his promises and 300 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 1: frankly put political capital behind something other than himself. I mean, 301 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: he just hasn't shown the ability to to expend political 302 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 1: capital to move something through he just wants to win 303 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: the news cycle every day. Rob Let's ask a question 304 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 1: that falls on the Democratic Party. I want to ask 305 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: you who President Donald Trump will run against. That would 306 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,160 Speaker 1: be ridiculous. I want to ask you what President Donald 307 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 1: Trump he's going to be running against. What is the 308 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 1: idea that the Democratic Party wants to communicate to the 309 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: electorate the President Donald Trump will be running against. Yeah, 310 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,919 Speaker 1: it is incumbent on our nominee to prove two things. 311 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: First of all, that Donald Trump has not been honest, 312 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 1: that he gave people a raw deal. He said he'd 313 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 1: do one thing and he's done another, and he's hurt 314 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,479 Speaker 1: everyday people in their lives. Um, their wages haven't gone up. 315 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,959 Speaker 1: The tax code got rigged against them. Uh, you know, 316 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: he was it was really good for himself, but not 317 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 1: good for them. And then secondly, we need to prove 318 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: the case that we can do a better job. We 319 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: can create more jobs through you know, through something I 320 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 1: can infrastructure, we can we can improve Obamacare so that 321 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 1: healthcare markets stabilize and it's more affordable for families. Those 322 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: are the things we have to prove, and I think 323 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: the President is going to do everything in his power 324 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: to try to make the debate in our primary about identity, 325 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: politics and a whole bunch of other issues we can't 326 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: fall from. On the economy, I find it very difficult 327 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: to see how the Democrats are going to come up 328 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: with an idea that really goes against what he's done. 329 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: Wage growth is up, g d P is up, confidence 330 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: levels just look at the soft data from the business 331 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:14,239 Speaker 1: community sky high. What is the argument that comes from 332 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:19,719 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. Wages are distinctly not up. People are 333 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: taking home less pay every single year that goes by, 334 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 1: and the latest payrolls report, right, but that's not growing us. 335 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: It's not growing at the same pace as inflation. And 336 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: the President the president right for this year, but if 337 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 1: you look at the past thirty years, it has not 338 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 1: been growing fast enough. And the president past attacks bill 339 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 1: that gave away billions of dollars um to corporations and 340 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: to the richest individuals. We have not seen that invested 341 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: back into companies. It's being used for buy backs. And 342 00:20:56,600 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: our children are being saddled with mountains of debts. So 343 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot at stake here. Very differently. 344 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 1: We gotta each your backer, Robbie, thank you so much. 345 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: Greatly appreciated uh with his perspective on the mechanics, working 346 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 1: with Terry mccaull if for a few years ago, and 347 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: the governor at Race in Virginia of course of Secretary 348 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 1: Clinton two years ago. It is good within all of 349 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 1: our political views today, our economics, finance, investment, David Wilson's 350 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 1: good stock report. To talk to somebody that actually lived, 351 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,439 Speaker 1: he is forever. The Senator from Mississippi, Trent Lott joins 352 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: us this morning, a senator, A lot wonderful to have 353 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: you with us. And within that is where one side 354 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: of the House has to get used to the other 355 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: side of the House as well. How well senators in 356 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: the how are Republicans in the Senate adapt and adjust 357 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: to a Democrat House. Well, first, Tom and Tim is 358 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: good to be with you again. And this is quite 359 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,119 Speaker 1: an interesting morning. I was invested in the business report. 360 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: But you know, there's been two similar situations that I 361 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: lived through in the eighties when Reagan was president, he 362 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,919 Speaker 1: always had a Democratic House and only part of the 363 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: time of Republican Senate. And yet working with Tip O'Neill, 364 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: working across the with people like Bob Michael and Bob 365 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 1: Dole or the Senate, but they got things done. And 366 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 1: in the nineties when Clinton was president, we had both 367 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,239 Speaker 1: the House and the Senate. New Gingrich and I were 368 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: leading the two bodies and we worked together. Clinton talked 369 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: to us. We we did welfare reform, we balanced a budget, 370 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: we passed safe drinking water, and we passed telecommunication form. 371 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,360 Speaker 1: A lot of things can be done in a divided government, 372 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:57,199 Speaker 1: but it takes communication, It takes chemistry, takes a vision, 373 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: but most of all, it takes leadership. Does your Ablican 374 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 1: president have the communication and chemistry to do that? Beginning 375 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 1: with the press conference at eleven thirty this morning, Well, uh, 376 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 1: he's gonna have to adjust to the circumstances that he faces. 377 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 1: He does have, thank goodness of the Republican Senate, but 378 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,199 Speaker 1: he's gonna have to deal with Anti Pelosi in a 379 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: Democratic House, um, you know, and try to figure out 380 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: how we can get things done. There's some things the 381 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: Senate can do on their own. But if he would 382 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 1: reach out to uh, Chuck Schumer in the Senate and 383 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 1: Anti Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, say, can we get together 384 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: on infrastructure? This is something I think he cares about. Uh, 385 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 1: does anybody deny that in America we need to invest 386 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,400 Speaker 1: more in Lane's planes, trains, ports, harbor, water and sewer. Well, 387 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: absolutely not. It's not partisan. So they need to think 388 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: a little bit about can we get something done for 389 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: our country in the lame duck session and next year? 390 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:54,159 Speaker 1: Now after that, all bets are all pim Trent What 391 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 1: it sounds like he was running for office there, Well, 392 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: you never thought about it, but I couldn't afford to 393 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: give up my livelihood and I didn't want to divorce 394 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,640 Speaker 1: after fifty four years. At the same way, some retired, 395 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: Well you got to know when to retire. By the way, 396 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,200 Speaker 1: some of our colleagues need to think about that. Let 397 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,640 Speaker 1: me bring in pen Fox p. Well, let's follow up 398 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 1: on that. What who are the key relationship builders in 399 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 1: the Senate? And you just mentioned retirement. Should there be 400 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,919 Speaker 1: an age limit? Owner? Oh no, no, no, you know 401 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,680 Speaker 1: look American people, uh can end the term and leadership. Well, 402 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 1: you know in the Senate, for instance, they do have 403 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,400 Speaker 1: term limits on everybody, but the Republican leader, the whip 404 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: really good Man Corning from Texas is having to step 405 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 1: aside his whip after six years, and the other leaders 406 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: I presume Will will move up Thune and Barasso and 407 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 1: Roy Blunt. He's a very interesting personality. He served in 408 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 1: the House, he's a whipping house and now he's a 409 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 1: leadership in the Senate. So if some of those folks 410 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: will try to think about how do we reach across 411 00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: the aisle and see if there's something we maybe can 412 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,919 Speaker 1: for instance, uh, the Congress Democrat House and Republicans, and 413 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: they're gonna have to deal with the trade issue, you know, 414 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: the U. S m c A uh follow up to 415 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: NAPTA has to come to Congress. Are they going to 416 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 1: be able to get that done? And by the way, 417 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 1: if they don't, you know, what is the situation with 418 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,880 Speaker 1: regard to trade in Canada and Mexico are two most 419 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: important trading partners. What are the relationships that you believe 420 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 1: currently exists or that have been built over time that 421 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: still exists in the Senate between Democrats and Republicans. I 422 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: have to tell you I don't see much. Um. You know, 423 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:39,480 Speaker 1: it's the kind of thing you have to work on 424 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: every day. I had a unique personality to work with 425 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 1: in Tom Dashel from South Dakota. He was a Democratic 426 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: leader when I was a Republican leader. We had a 427 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: good chemistry. We talked all the time, and we were 428 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: able to get a lot of things done. Uh, even 429 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 1: though we you know, had the president, you know it 430 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: was Clinton, but it uh, you know, they're just gonna 431 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: have to try to think about, Okay, what do we do. 432 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: The fact is we do have a Republican Senate at 433 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 1: gain seats, and we do have a Democrat House. It's 434 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,160 Speaker 1: a fact. Now, how are you gonna deal with that? 435 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 1: The part of the bridge that could be built, Well, 436 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 1: first of all, I think they should stay in Washington 437 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: and work more. Uh. This deal where they come into 438 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 1: town Monday night or Tuesday morning and they want to leave. Third, 439 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,640 Speaker 1: you can't govern like that. Uh. You know, the American 440 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: people work five days a week. Yeah, the last time 441 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 1: I checked. And this idea that could sleep in our 442 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 1: offices that ought to be illegal in my opinion. But 443 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 1: you know, they're gonna have to spend more time here. Uh, 444 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: and they're gonna have to find a way. One of 445 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: the issues, one of the things that caused me to 446 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 1: decide to leave Congress when I did was the embarrassed 447 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: I was about the inability of Congress to do immigration reform. Uh. 448 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: It needs to be done both for those that are here, 449 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,640 Speaker 1: uh and for those that we might want to come 450 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,680 Speaker 1: that are legal. Uh. And to control, um, the flow 451 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,160 Speaker 1: of illegal immigrants into this country that hasn't been dealt 452 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 1: with since nine six effectively. Uh, everybody knows it's an issue. 453 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,439 Speaker 1: We need to find a way to come together. Senator, 454 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 1: Please don't be a stranger. A senator a lot of 455 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 1: Mississippi with his work with John Brow of course afterwards 456 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 1: your partner as well, Senator, thank you so much, greatly appreciated. 457 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 1: Stephen Moore joins us now writing with Dr Lafler trump Anomics, 458 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 1: which got wide played, particularly in Republican areas. To the 459 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 1: gentleman from New Trier and Whinette, Illinois, Stephen Moore, the 460 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 1: deficit grows? At what point does a deficit get in 461 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: the way of trump andomics? Well, good morning, thank you 462 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 1: for the nice introduction. And uh, that's first time people 463 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: have mentioned my high school but didn't go to Newture 464 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: Edge outside of Chicago. And uh, look, I think you're right. 465 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 1: We've got a we've got a booming economy right now. 466 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: You know, we had these big elections last night, and 467 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 1: I think that the people say, well, the economy wasn't 468 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 1: really on the ballot, Well, it sure was. And I 469 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: think if it hadn't been for this booming economy, Republicans 470 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 1: would have maken a huge bud. I think, you know, 471 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 1: it's the economy is what saved so many of these 472 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: Senate teams for the Republicans and some of the governorship. 473 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 1: So look, I'm very bullish on the US economy. I 474 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 1: actually think that this outcome for investors because this is 475 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 1: boom investors. So I just okay, that's I think that 476 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: the outcome last night where the Democrats took the House, 477 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 1: Republicans took the Senate is absolutely the best possible outcome 478 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 1: for financial a markets. That's actually did outcome for Donald Trump. 479 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: I think it gives them two years to run against 480 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 1: Nanti Pelosi and the and the the Democrats. So you know, 481 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 1: I think, you know, you saw one of the futures 482 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 1: were up on something my communters points this morning. I 483 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 1: think this is a good Outkay, Stephen, you sound like 484 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 1: Lawrence Cudlo Deaconomic Club in New York. I asked the question, 485 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: you didn't answer it. Tell me about the dynamics of 486 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 1: debt and deficit given this economic growth. Everybody knows the 487 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 1: vector of deficit to GDP, when does it turnaround? Yeah, 488 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 1: so that's a great question. In fact, in the book. 489 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 1: In the book, we talk a lot about that. You know, 490 00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: we are from our first meeting with Donald Trump, uh, 491 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 1: you know, to some two and a half years ago, 492 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: we basically told them, look, Donald and that we call 493 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 1: them Donald, that we call him Mr. President. We said, 494 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,760 Speaker 1: you're never gonna make any progress in reducing this massive 495 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: tidal wave of debt that is coming because of the 496 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 1: aging of the baby boomers unless we get economic growth 497 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 1: rate up. You know, under Obama, the average growth rate 498 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: you know, with something like one point nine five percent 499 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: per year, which was you know, just not high enough, 500 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 1: not nearly high enough. We need to double that growth rate. 501 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: And so we always said, look, get the economy moving, 502 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 1: get people in the workforce, get people off welfare and 503 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 1: into jobs, and during factories back in the United States 504 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,720 Speaker 1: spring corporate profits and business profits up, and you'll get 505 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 1: a surge of revenue. Since you know that Trump has 506 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 1: done that, we've gotten the growth rate up to you know, 507 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 1: close to fourth porcent now over the last I just 508 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,680 Speaker 1: want I know, but Stephen, I haven't answered my question. 509 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 1: I know I'm answering it. So the solution to the 510 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 1: debt is economic growth. We've got to get the if 511 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 1: we keep up this economic growth rate, just as in 512 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 1: the late ninety nineties under Bill Clinton when we actually 513 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 1: ran budget surpluses at the end of his presidency, if 514 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 1: we get to if we keep this high rate of 515 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 1: growth up, the debt is a sure of GDP will 516 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: continue to fall. Stephen Moore, is there any evidence, practical 517 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 1: evidence to suggest that tax cuts are able to generate 518 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 1: enough growth to replace the revenue that is lost from 519 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 1: those tax cuts, And if so, can you point me 520 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 1: hang on? Hang on, because I've looked at a variety 521 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 1: of economic studies and at the most they say that 522 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,600 Speaker 1: maybe a third of the money of the revenue that 523 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 1: is lost from tax cuts is made up, under the 524 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: best of circumstances, from economic growth. Just a third. Yea. So, uh, Look, 525 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: our objective with the tax cut was to grow the 526 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 1: economy and create jobs. That was the number one issue 527 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,720 Speaker 1: for the American people in two thousand, Uh, you know, fourteen, 528 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: fifteen and sixteen, Every year, what were Americans concerned about 529 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 1: the economy and jobs? And we put that first, and 530 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 1: we've done that. We've created the best labor market ever 531 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: for American workers, at least in fifty years, and we've 532 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,479 Speaker 1: got a booming economy with three and a half four 533 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 1: percent ROW. Now is the depth going up? Yes? Why 534 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: is it an upset going up? Because spending is out 535 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,080 Speaker 1: of control. Spending is out of control, and I'm not 536 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 1: going to depend the Republicans on the spending. You know 537 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 1: that they have done nothing and neither party wants to 538 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 1: control spending up last year, even with the tax cut, 539 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: even with the tax cut in two thousand eighteen to 540 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 1: score two thousand eighteen, which ended in October, we had 541 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: more federal revenues into the treasury than any time in 542 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 1: American history. It's not a revenue problem. It's a spending problem. Okay, 543 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 1: we're gonna leave it. There's Stephen Wore, thank you so much. 544 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 1: Not enough time today. We'll have you back on as soon. 545 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 1: Is an important book with Art Laughler, Stephen Moore, Arthur B. Laughler, 546 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 1: Trump Adomics, of course, with a theory and actual policy 547 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 1: that we've seen from the president, and again we may 548 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 1: get clarity on it. We're squeezing some time here with 549 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 1: Frank Keating of Oklahoma, Governor Keating, if I can jump 550 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 1: to your tangible expertise and law enforcement, including being an 551 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 1: FBI agent. If the president that advances forward the rhetoric 552 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 1: in discourse on immigration, how will that be played out 553 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 1: with our military at the border? Is a is a 554 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 1: police guy? Do you want the army at the border? Well, Thomas, 555 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 1: you well know the Post Commatatus Act UH prohibits the 556 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 1: military involving itself in law enforcement activities and surely grabbing 557 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 1: people and pushing them back. Committing a misdemeanor. Illegal enter 558 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,520 Speaker 1: in the United States is a law enforcement act. The 559 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 1: Immigration Service at one time Lake Reagan reported him as 560 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:43,280 Speaker 1: did the Border Patrol. And in a situation like this, 561 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 1: the only thing you can do is to have Mexico 562 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,160 Speaker 1: help you to keep people from coming across and putting 563 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: barriers that are significant along the border so people can't 564 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 1: crawl over it and effect a wall by some other name. 565 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 1: So I'm not really happy about what's going on. I 566 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,960 Speaker 1: think we have to protect our borders. If you let 567 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,120 Speaker 1: these people in, you're gonna have ten times at number, 568 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 1: particularly with over doors. The new president of Mexico, you 569 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 1: don't know, he's very, very left wing his rhetoric. So 570 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 1: far it's been reasonably positive, but you just don't know. 571 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 1: So you certainly don't want everybody in Central South America 572 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:27,680 Speaker 1: Mexico coming across the border. That's just not sustainable. Governor Keating, 573 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: during your second term, one of the major accomplishments was 574 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 1: your increase in spending on education. This was for a 575 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:42,439 Speaker 1: common education, vocational technical, higher education that was throughout the state. 576 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,919 Speaker 1: You also introduced charter schools to Oklahoma for the first time. 577 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 1: Based on what you know about the disposition of the 578 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,440 Speaker 1: way money is spent right now, For example, Arizona voted 579 00:34:56,480 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 1: down school vouchers during the mid terms. What is the 580 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:05,239 Speaker 1: likelihood that we're going to get a coherent education policy. Well, 581 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 1: the good news him is that fellaalism work and in 582 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,880 Speaker 1: the education arena and across the board, you have to 583 00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 1: work together Democrats and Republicans, And in my case, I 584 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: was the first Republican governor since the sixties. Overwhelmingly Democrat 585 00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 1: House and Senatives. But I told them, Okay, I'm for vouchers, 586 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 1: but we'll do public school vouchers, and I'm for choice, 587 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,720 Speaker 1: public school choice, and we ought to have charter school 588 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 1: as well. They went along with that, and the ethnic 589 00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,880 Speaker 1: charter school, for example in Oklahoma City, has nine thousand 590 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,840 Speaker 1: students and they have very high A C. T scores, 591 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,920 Speaker 1: whereas many public schools throughout the state burdened by huge 592 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,880 Speaker 1: levels of democracy that's across the country. The money doesn't 593 00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 1: go to the class room to get people like the 594 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:55,000 Speaker 1: three of us to teach. It goes to bureaucrats average 595 00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,520 Speaker 1: salaries in six figures, and I think that's crazy for 596 00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,799 Speaker 1: any state to overinvest in bureaucracy and under invest in 597 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,480 Speaker 1: the classroom. The governor. One final question, it's a hundred 598 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 1: and seventy five miles from Tulsa to Wichita. I feel 599 00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 1: like I'm writing a song for the Lake, Glenn Campbell. 600 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 1: You're moving from Tulsa to Wichita, and you're moving to 601 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,399 Speaker 1: a state with a Democrat governor. Uh. The brown Back 602 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:21,560 Speaker 1: experiment north of Oklahoma in Kansas, how did that work out? Well? 603 00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,279 Speaker 1: I think Sam Brownback is a very bright guy, but 604 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,400 Speaker 1: as a former senator, I can't figure this out. He 605 00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,239 Speaker 1: was not effective with the legislature didn't work with him. 606 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,759 Speaker 1: Republican or Democrat, you have to do that, and if 607 00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 1: the Democrats say no, it's hell no, then you say, okay, 608 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 1: then where can we go? I mean, if you want 609 00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 1: to be a dictator, and I can say this is 610 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,720 Speaker 1: a Catholic. If you want to be a solo person 611 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 1: in charge them, run for pope. But if you're a 612 00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:53,479 Speaker 1: leged latory definition, you're to compromise. And I don't think 613 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:57,120 Speaker 1: Sam Brownback compromised. And I think the public decided they 614 00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:01,359 Speaker 1: want to have administered the whole system of dioretic Frank Katy, 615 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 1: thank you so much, and uh I hope to see 616 00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,200 Speaker 1: you at your next travels to New York to advance 617 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:14,960 Speaker 1: for the next volume of Next Magical Children. Thanks for 618 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:19,440 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to 619 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:25,360 Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 620 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,239 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You 621 00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.