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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guests. Grace Term's chief investment advisor

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Speaker 1: at BNP Parable Wealth Management, Hong Kong with us from

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong. So it's very interesting to hear what Andrew

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Speaker 1: Bailey said that if you had some bigger hikes like

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Speaker 1: the seventy five basis points that they just delivered, that

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Speaker 1: that would induce a two year recession. We're not kind

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Speaker 1: of hearing those warnings from the FED as well, though.

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Speaker 1: What kind of concern is there that overtightening here is

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Speaker 1: going to trigger some kind of credit event? Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think on the recession concerns as it's definitely one of

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Speaker 1: the Kist and the others credit events because I mean,

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Speaker 1: especially when you look at the history UM whenever like

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Speaker 1: UM the fad is tight s name especially for now

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Speaker 1: this is a fast tightening cycle. We worry about something

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Speaker 1: with break and so UM. We're not sure whether UM

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Speaker 1: there would trigger credit events, but the risk is there.

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Speaker 1: And also in terms of the recession UM like Europe

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Speaker 1: UK they may already in the recession, and we also

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Speaker 1: think that they the US UM there's a houp chance

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Speaker 1: for the US economy to go into recession UH in

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Speaker 1: the second quarter next year, and that's certainly been I

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Speaker 1: guess reflected to in what we're seeing in bond deals

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Speaker 1: with the two tenure yield curve at a level not

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Speaker 1: seen in around four decades. What kind of further, I

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Speaker 1: guess market movers are you looking for and where do

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Speaker 1: we see this curve go from here? Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: especially UM for markets. Now I'm still digesting UM what

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Speaker 1: chair Power UM spoke in the conference and know which

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Speaker 1: is a very hockeyg message UM. So I think UM

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Speaker 1: there's still chance for for use UM I mean, especially

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Speaker 1: UM to to go up. However, especially I mean when

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Speaker 1: we look at economic data, especially I think UM going

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Speaker 1: for works. We could see, especially for the US economic

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Speaker 1: data's momentum I will continue to slow and people started

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Speaker 1: again to worried about the recessions. And this is actually UH,

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Speaker 1: I mean, would drive more demand for the U. S

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Speaker 1: Treasury as a hatch and UM and so our ars

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Speaker 1: could could go down for US, our tenure, our your

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Speaker 1: sturgury target is actually three point five percent by the

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Speaker 1: end of next year. We saw a huge rally in

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Speaker 1: the SNP five as well in the month of October.

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Speaker 1: Is that is that a bear market rally or is

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Speaker 1: it something more sustained. Yeah, we we think it looks

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Speaker 1: like a bear market rally, and we also think that

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Speaker 1: we could see um more by market rally any time,

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Speaker 1: especially I mean from market right now. Bad news on

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Speaker 1: economic data is actually good news for market um expectation

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Speaker 1: of less aggressive central band hikes um So. But still

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Speaker 1: I think we were thinking we could see more dun

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Speaker 1: side after the market rally because first of all, as

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Speaker 1: UM I mean, for the current demvelopment is like rising

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Speaker 1: real yields, and also we're seeing tacting financial confessions and

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Speaker 1: usually this tend not to vote well for our processes.

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Speaker 1: And also um, despite I mean we we already see

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Speaker 1: a sell off in the recess like this year. We

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Speaker 1: think like the credits, breast earnings that snirds p multiples,

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Speaker 1: everything is not really prizing previous processionary levels. Yeah. So,

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week, Grace a lot of optimism that

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Speaker 1: we would be seeing a path to reopening in China,

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Speaker 1: and that saw Chinese and Hong Kong stocks and particularly

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Speaker 1: those Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rally. But then

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Speaker 1: a reversal as we were told they are resolutely adhering

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Speaker 1: to that policy. What kind of is going to be

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Speaker 1: the momentum to turn assets around in China. And when

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Speaker 1: do we get that path to reopening? Yeah, I think UM, Yes,

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Speaker 1: as you said, UM, the reopening is really UM one

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Speaker 1: of the key capitalists UM to see some turnaround, especially

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Speaker 1: in terms of the first sentiment, which now is very

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Speaker 1: very weak. UM. I think UM, UM, for now there's

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Speaker 1: no indication of when UM the market is going to

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Speaker 1: I mean they the Chinese becomany is going to reopen.

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Speaker 1: I think UM even like if they can have any

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Speaker 1: signals or even UM is going to say if it's

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Speaker 1: a really gradual path, As long as there is a

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Speaker 1: clear direction that UM China is going to reopen, I

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Speaker 1: think the market will be cheer up and UM we

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Speaker 1: could see some turnaround. But UM, I think obviously for

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Speaker 1: now it's still outwaiting UM the signals and UM the others.

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Speaker 1: I think the property market is also a key UM

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Speaker 1: because I mean, for now, if we well continue to

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Speaker 1: see it's UM, I mean the bottoming protect but if

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Speaker 1: if we have any signal that is going to be

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Speaker 1: like bottom outs, I think that would also be a

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Speaker 1: good catalyst for each Chinese UM as a market. And

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Speaker 1: the third one is UM the China a d L

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Speaker 1: or the tech. Um. I think we're going to have

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Speaker 1: some like preliminary fine things by November of this or

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Speaker 1: early December. Um, if there is any I mean signs

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Speaker 1: of uh, the old detain, it's going to be like um,

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Speaker 1: weren't very smoothly, it's going to approve and those could

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Speaker 1: also be very positive caltalyst for the Chinese market. And

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Speaker 1: what does it mean in terms of the consumer kind

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Speaker 1: of trying to drive the economy too, because we know

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Speaker 1: that people have been not able to spend when they

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Speaker 1: haven't been able to travel or leave their homes in

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Speaker 1: some cases with these lockdowns. We're looking according to Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Intelligence that Ali Barber saying its first singles day drop

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Speaker 1: in fourteen years. And people just reluctant to spend when

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Speaker 1: they don't know if they're facing another lockdown or when

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Speaker 1: they can get out. Yeah, I think exactly, Um, Um,

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Speaker 1: I think um for now, I mean everybody just wanted

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Speaker 1: to know. UM, I mean whether they're going to really

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Speaker 1: have any relaxation in terms of the COVID rescriptions, because

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Speaker 1: I mean now our business confidence, consumer confidence, UM, it's

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Speaker 1: all really depends on the the COVID policies. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if there is really a clear path of like even

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Speaker 1: like gradual reopening, I think um, this would help consumer confidence,

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Speaker 1: investment confidence, and also business confidence. Yeah. And so what

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Speaker 1: what markets in Asia do you see as beneficiaries If

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Speaker 1: we are not seeing some reopening themes happening in Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong and China, but we are across the rest of

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Speaker 1: the region. There was a call yesterday that Thailand's market,

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Speaker 1: for example, could see a fourteen percent stock jump on

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Speaker 1: the back of its reopening. Yeah. I think UM in

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Speaker 1: terms of China, UM, I mean especially I think um

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Speaker 1: UM given I mean the the downside, and for those

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Speaker 1: like medium to learn long term investors, I think they

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Speaker 1: can uh focus on those like policy beneficiaries, especially ussy

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Speaker 1: or No, China is still very committed UM to the

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Speaker 1: to degree in agenda with very aggressive target in terms

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Speaker 1: of the common h emissions reduction. So I mean in

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Speaker 1: terms of those like ev UM supply chains UM, the

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Speaker 1: the clean energies UM like those screen um um construction materials,

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Speaker 1: those areas that I think investors could could know that

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Speaker 1: focus on, especially can can think about like buying buying

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Speaker 1: on lips and UM and for the whole Asia. I

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Speaker 1: think the key um to see uh, I mean rebound

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Speaker 1: in the whole Asia performance. Really to look at the

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Speaker 1: US dollar. I mean if we already reached the peak

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Speaker 1: hock actioness of the fat um, we may already seen

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Speaker 1: the peak in the viewers dollars. So um I think,

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Speaker 1: um yeah. The key is whether I mean we were

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Speaker 1: going to see some like refers in trend of the U.

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Speaker 1: S dollar, and it is we're seeing like we can

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Speaker 1: name US dollar. This will be a really positive um

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Speaker 1: capitalist for the Asian especially for equities. All Right, Grace,

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Speaker 1: it's been a pleasure. I have a love of lovely weekend.

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Speaker 1: Grace tamp's chief investment advisor BMP Parable Wealth Management, Hong Kong,

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Speaker 1: with us from Hong Kong here on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia