WEBVTT - The Optics of This Administration Are Hideous, Stavridis Says 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.920 Brought you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch. Investing in 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:08.000 local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's the power 0:00:08.080 --> 0:00:12.360 of global connections, Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith Incorporated 0:00:12.760 --> 0:00:26.400 Member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.920 I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:34.800 insight from the best of economics, finance, investment and international relations. 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:40.760 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:47.720 and of course on the Bloomberg Let me go down 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:49.680 to Charles Powell. He's remember the House of Lords. Joins 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:51.760 us from our studios in London, where Tom Keen is 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.840 all week and Lord Power. Let me just get you 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:56.520 to react to to what we've seen today. Of course 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:59.240 we've got data on manufacturing, industrial production as well the 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:01.760 trade gap in the UK. Give me your reaction to 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:04.880 what we've heard from the BOE today. Well, mine is 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:08.119 not a particular skill. Three, I'm not. I'm unsurprised. As 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.960 the short answer, I didn't expect to see interest rates 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:13.479 go up. I think a month before an election would 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:15.720 be any way quite sporting to try and do something 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:18.000 like that, even though across the bank of being it 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:21.759 is independent. So no, it sounds to be thoroughly sensible 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:24.600 as any man. Let me let me get your your 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:26.920 your sense of word things stand with Brexit. At this 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:30.680 point we have a negotiations continuously press ahead of the 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:32.840 snap election on the eighth of June. Give us at 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:34.959 your perspective on what campaigning is like at this point. 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.840 The import of this election that we face here in 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:41.160 less than a month's time. Now, well, it's quite clear 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:43.920 the reason that Mrs May called an election was to 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:48.560 strengthen her hand in the negotiations over Brexit. She had 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:50.800 quite a narrow majority in the House of Commons and 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:54.800 merely sixteen votes, and not everyone in the party would 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.040 agree with everything she wants to do, so she needed 0:01:57.040 --> 0:02:00.440 a bigger majority, and so she's staking all on getting 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:04.320 that bigger majority. We shall see four weeks today whether 0:02:04.400 --> 0:02:06.720 she succeeds. But the opinion polls seem to be fairly 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.440 strongly in her favor. The b we here reducing its 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.120 growth forecast at to one point nine from two percent 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:14.840 for so long after the weight In the wake of 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:18.280 that Brexit vote, the first Brexit vote, uh, so, many 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:20.320 economists were telling us that the effects on the economy 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.640 were more muted than many expected. What's your sense of 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:25.640 growth right now in the UK? Are we seeing a 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:27.440 Brexit effect in a way that we didn't in the 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:31.160 immediate aftermath of that vote. I'm not sure how much 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:33.280 of it is really affected by Brexit. I think the 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:37.040 growth rate was bound to sort of wobbles a little bit, 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.360 but it hasn't wobbled greatly. I'd still be pretty optimistic 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:42.840 about Britain and the run up to Brexit, and I 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:46.440 think that also the European economies are doing better. Um 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:50.600 So I'm unexcited. Let's put it like that. I'm untroubled. 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:54.400 I'm unperturbed. I'm not flapping about Brexit. How about the 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.280 corporate migration we've heard so much about over these last 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:00.560 couple of weeks. We've had various banks outline plans to 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:04.560 send a few dozen, a few hundred employees elsewhere. How 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:06.840 worried are you about the prospects of that A flight 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:10.600 from the city of London. Well, I'm frankly not terribly worried. 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:14.600 I've never thought London was a great financial center because 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:16.960 we were in the European Union. I mean, we were 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.880 a great financial center like New York's a great financial 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:23.320 center because of what we are, because of the policy, 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:27.000 of the policies, the economic life of this country, the traditions, 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:30.880 great experience of the city Europe have very little to 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.639 do with it. I think banks are taking some sensible 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.720 precautionary measures, check a few guys over there in Europe 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:39.240 to get the necessary licenses and so on. But don't 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:43.040 don't talk now about really locating on a massive scale. 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:45.800 It would be pointless. I mean, Frankfurt and Paris are 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:48.440 not going to be world financial centers. They really are not. 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:51.000 I mean, more people work in the square miles of 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:53.200 the city of London live in the whole of Frankfort. 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:56.720 So it's it's all very relative. Lord power with us 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:58.640 Charles Powell, member of the House of Lords, from a 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:01.240 private secretary and advisor on Foreign Affairs and defense to 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:03.920 Lady Thatcher here on Bloomberg Surveillance, Tom Keen with us 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:06.360 now at from London, you're more approximate to threaten Neeedle Street, 0:04:06.360 --> 0:04:08.360 of course than then. I watch your reaction to the 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:11.240 news that we got this boarding time taking British accent lesson. 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:13.080 So I'm gonna try to come back to New York 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.880 with an appropriate and proper British accent. We are honored 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:18.920 to have you with us, out Lord Power, with your 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.640 public service to the nation of long ago and far away. 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:25.359 Does the United Kingdom speak to the leadership of Europe 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:29.320 now as they spoke to the leadership twenty and thirty 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:32.520 years ago? Is the same dialogue and discourse or will 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.680 it be different? Well, many of the themes are the same, 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:38.240 and of course in some areas not covered by the 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:41.560 European Union, by which I mean particularly defense and security, 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:46.720 the dialogue will go on unchanged. Obviously, ever matters about 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.080 our membership of the EU, it's a different sort of 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:52.400 dialogue and it's in a difficult phase. You would have 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:55.479 read the reports of the famous dinner between Prime Minister 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:59.240 Theresa May and the President of the European Commissioner, Mr 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:03.120 Yunka talking about us from pretty much of a punch 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:06.440 up which went on that. I think that's because we're 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:10.599 in the phase before the real negotiation staff when both 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:13.760 sides are sort of squaring up. They're strutting around the ring, 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:18.360 beating their chests, flexing their muscles. The serious stuff hasn't 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:21.719 started yet. Did John money do that. I mean, I 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:25.400 just find the cadence today totally different than what I 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:29.599 studied of your well, John money is even before my time. 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:32.800 But of course I think the point I would make 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:36.839 on that, because there's an ideological belief in European Union 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:41.920 amongst the original countries of the European Community, they really 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:44.960 subscribe to a belief and a principle. Much of that 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.680 is evaporated over the years. You can't get twenty eight 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:51.719 countries thinking and feeding exactly the same as the original six. 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:56.040 The general aim of closer European Union is officially there, 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.719 it's written on all the documents, but I don't believe 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:03.680 anyone really believes in Sydney wore as a practical outcome. Cooperation, yes, 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:07.479 maybe tighter cooperation between smaller groups of countries within the 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:11.160 twenty seven or eight, but not the full the full work. 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:13.800 So that's just not going to happen. It's under estimation then, 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:17.960 has as the experiment itself failed. No, I certainly don't 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:20.640 think it's sailed. Obviously, one of the main principles, one 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.680 of the main hopes for it was it would prevent 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.800 any future war in the middle of Europe, and that 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:29.440 I think but further away from hoever, thank god, I 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:31.240 need to rip up the script. Am I allowed to 0:06:31.240 --> 0:06:33.760 do that? I mean, you know, I'm watching Bank of 0:06:33.800 --> 0:06:37.200 England here and I'm I'm trying to get it up 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:40.760 here on my Bloomberg terminal. There we go. It took 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:43.520 me a while to type in the keyboard. Is different. 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:48.279 Sterling is lower with a real drop and this of 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.880 course has to do with GDP forecast and higher inflation 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:55.520 as well. What's your first regulation of sterling two dollar? 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:59.280 Was it four to one? Yes? It was full to one. 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:02.240 I was in at the time because the US can 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:04.040 talk to hear about that. You were there for water 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:06.880 again And yes, at the time when when the US 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:11.800 came out of gold currency started seventy three, Yeah, I 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:15.440 was sitting there in Washington. This is your first radio announcement. 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:17.800 I know the BBC. You can be four ft back 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:20.080 from the mic there, You've got to be a little closer. 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:23.280 But but how do you how do you adjust to 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:29.760 the generational sterling devaluation We've seen I think people who 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.280 have become cylical about it over the years. We've had 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.960 so many fluctuations in the UK. When you think back 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.920 to the sort of inflation we experienced in the nineteen 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:42.400 seventies and early people see this by comparison as a 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.880 calm time, steady time. I think the initial drop of 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:50.280 sterling after after the vote on brixit was a bit 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.040 of a shock, but not an unexpected shock. Really people 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:55.640 would have thought that would happen, and it has advantages 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:58.920 to It's helped our export figures really quite considerably. So 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:02.440 there's no sense of PANDAE cattle the person is losing control. 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:05.320 Things are going pretty well. This has been wonderful. My 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:08.000 next trip back to London, I'll drag David Gurrow with 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:10.520 you and we would love to speak to you and 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.800 Daniel Jurgen together. I think that would be just a 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:18.080 really special Danielson would be great to be We can't 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:22.360 stand you or Lord Paul. Thank you so much, Charles 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:26.280 Paul with his public service during the major Thatcher administrations 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.800 and in Dr Jurgen, if you're listening, we would love 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:31.800 to make that happen right now. We can do that 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:46.600 right now. Joining us now, James Davids a Fletcher School, 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:52.280 Tough University. We speak to the Admiral about leadership differently 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:55.080 than we would have spoken to him two or three 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:59.080 or four days ago, Admirals Davids. I'm reading Eric Larabee's 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:05.360 incredible one volume on FDR and his Oval Office. Somehow 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:09.040 I can't fathom FDR keeping the American press out of 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.600 a photo op in the Oval Office. I mean, these 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:16.520 are unique times. Your interpretation of what you've observed from 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:20.480 the White House in the last two days, well, I'm worried. 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:23.880 I think everyone is. Um I'll sort of pin my 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:28.559 hopes on hr McMaster, who kind of General McMaster, who 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:32.640 wrote an extraordinary book, Dereliction of Duty, the subject of 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:35.200 which is the need to speak truth to power. It's 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:38.400 about the Joint chiefs during the Vietnam War and how 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:42.040 they failed in their duty dereliction of duty to the 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.199 President of the United States. Uh. It is important in 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.959 these times that people are unafraid to walk into the 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:50.720 Oval Office and tell the President when he is embarking 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:53.040 on a dangerous course. And I think we are in 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:56.160 those times. So I'm hopeful that Hr McMaster's voice will 0:09:56.200 --> 0:10:00.439 be heard. Do those of a military tinge need to 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:04.319 speak up? I mean, I understand the discourse of voices 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:07.839 need to be heard. I mean the movies would tell 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:10.959 me that the Secretary Defense wanders into the office and says, 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:17.640 excuse me, sir. Does that happen? Absolutely? And that's okay. 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:21.920 We have to respect the institutions, but that respect has 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.280 to flow both ways. Tom. In other words, those who 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:27.920 hold positions of power must respect them, and those who 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:32.640 are subordinate must respect those in power. But there has 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:36.840 to be confrontation behind closed doors so that our leaders 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:41.199 do not take missteps. You mentioned hr McMaster, the head 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:44.160 of the NSC. There was more reporting this week from Eli, 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:46.640 like our colleague here at Bloomberg among others, talking about 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:49.920 a potential divide among the NSC again, maybe some tension 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:53.240 between the president and an hr McMaster. What's your reaction 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:55.600 to that? Do do you get the sense that that continues? 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:59.480 And how worrisome is that to you? Uh, It's worrisome, 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:03.079 but it is not in my view definitives. From what 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:07.520 I can source, hr McMaster continues to have the confidence 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:11.079 of the President. He has regular interaction with him. I 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:14.240 think his voice will be heard. Now, let's say said 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:18.839 hr McMaster is the National Security Advisor. He's opening most 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:24.679 emphatically on Russia, China, North Korea, these domestic issues. I 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:26.600 think we have to turn to the Chief of Staff 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:30.199 Rance previous and hope that he is speaking proof to power. 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:32.720 What's the message from what we've seen unfold here over 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.640 these last couple of days to other members of this 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.120 administration positions of power? Does that seem like those positions 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:41.440 are more tenuous somehow? Yes, you serve at the pleasure 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.239 of the president, But it seems like under this administration 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:48.160 that can change rather quickly. It's pretty remarkable to see 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:52.520 both the National Security Advisor fired as well as the 0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:55.839 FBI director in the first hundred and twelve days of 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:59.439 an administration. So sure, any job that you're holding in 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.360 this admit stration must feel more tenuous today than it 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:05.319 did four days ago. On the other hand, that is 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:07.240 the nature of the system and the nature of the 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:11.120 executive branch. The president has power, and people serve at 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:13.760 the pleasure of the president. When you hit a policy 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:17.080 you cannot abide, you have the option to resign. Let's 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.120 hope we don't get to that point where people are 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.480 walking out the doors. Um At mustavidez. Can you bring 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.960 Doris Karren's Goodwin's team of rivals over to something as 0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:28.280 fractious as the Senate? I mean they're above it all. 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.280 They don't need to read Doris Karen's Goodwin or the 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:35.319 Senator McConnell and the rest do They a team of rivals? 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.880 And uh, I think that we have not seen that 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.560 in quite a while. Frankly, you'd have to go back 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:44.880 in modern times perhaps to the Reagan tip O'Neill famous linkages. 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:50.000 But on the Senate side, Um, typically we've seen collegiality, 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:53.880 but over the decades. But now, Tom, you're absolutely right, 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.360 we see the horses pulling in distinctly different directions. That's 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:01.240 to me extremely worrisome because the founding fathers built the 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:05.600 Senate to provide stability, to pride, compromise, to rise above 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:09.360 the petty issues. It's not happening. What did you make 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:12.920 of that moment yesterday when the Oval Office tour swung open, 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:15.079 and sitting there in was Henry Kissinger, A middle of 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.959 the conversation we've had about the parallels right or wrong 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:21.520 to what happened in nineteen three, talking of the optics 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:25.520 that you're you're witnessing here from this administration, Well, uh, 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.760 really extraordinarily bad optics. I mean, you know, sort of 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:33.360 what's happening can run on a scale from UH Director Comb. 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:35.559 He did a bad job. The President was within his 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:39.400 rights to fire him over to hey, it's a conspiracy 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.800 because Comy was investigating the Russians. What we what we 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.280 know for sure is the optics of this are hideous. 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:50.280 And it's not just Kissinger in the link to water Gate. 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.959 Who was the previous visitor in the White House, Lavara, 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:58.360 the secret Foreign Minister of Russia. So just badly mishandled. 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:00.719 Just coincidentally, early or in the day, I had a 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:04.360 chance to be with former Secretary Kissinger, and I'll tell 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.760 you he is on his game, and he told me 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.800 he would be talking to the President about China, North 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:14.800 Korea and the European Union in Russia. The President could 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:18.120 not get better advice based on everything I know in 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:22.000 my interactions even earlier in the day with Dr Kissinger. 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:24.560 The President of Turkey is going to be watched in 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.320 next week. That's President air Duan. What do you make 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.120 of the the list of leaders with whom the President 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.200 has been engaged? Of course, he's invited President to Tarte 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.680 of the Philippines to come to the White House as well. 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.080 When you when you look at all the leaders around 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:38.680 the world, and then all the leaders that he's invited 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:42.000 to the White House. What do you make of that list? It's, uh, 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:47.160 it's kind of a mixed picture. I'm extremely concerned about 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:51.200 the idea that we would invite the Turte of the 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.200 Philippines to the White House. He is he's not the 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:57.240 kind of character that we want sitting with the President 0:14:57.320 --> 0:15:00.280 of the United States. UM. I was also st that's 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.720 the awkwardness of the interaction. For example, is Angela Merkel 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:07.840 the Chancellor of Germany. UM So he's arranged the spectrum 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.400 in terms of who he's inviting who's actually bringing in. 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.120 The key is what are the personal relationships he's building, 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.800 the most important of which will be with President g 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.320 One more quick question you want to get you on 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.800 your day at Fletcher What are the what are the 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:26.800 personal relationships as president needs to uh develop with General Madison, 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:31.119 with Mr Tillerson. He's got to be in an absolute 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.120 mind milk with two of them. And here's some good news. 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.640 The two of them, Tillerson and Madis are working very 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:41.120 very closely together, meeting frequently and also with Secretary of 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.680 Homeland Security John Kelly. That's a powerful trio. If he 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.040 means on them for advice, and he continues to reach 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.120 outside to people like Dr Kissinger. I think he'll be 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.840 on a good course at least on the international side 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:54.920 of his portfolio. Alright, great to speak with you as 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:56.640 always there. Emirald James Tefrita is heading up to the 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:58.880 Dirks and Senate Office Building to testify before the Senate 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.760 Armed Services commit He joined us on our phone lines. 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:04.120 Tom always great to hear his perspective. The Dean of 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:14.080 the Fletchery School Slam Diplomacy at Tofts University. Brought you 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.840 by Bank of America. Mary Lynch. Dedicated to bringing our 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.480 clients insights and solutions to meet the challenges of a 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:26.400 transforming world. That's the power of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce, 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:36.040 Feeder and Smith Incorporated Member s I p C. There's 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:39.560 something new from Bloomberg. It's called Lens. Starting right now, 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.560 you can use the Bloomberg Io s app off your 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:47.480 iPhone or iPad, or our new Google Chrome extension to 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:51.440 read any news story on any website, scan it, and 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:55.960 then instantly see the news stories relevant market data from Bloomberg. 0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:59.360 In addition, see all the bios of the key people 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.440 into the story. It's called lens, and it is just that, 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.800 a lens into the people and the data of any 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.760 story you may be reading. Again, Lens brings you the 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:14.320 power of Bloomberg's news and data. Download or io s 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:17.680 app or search for the Bloomberg extension at the Chrome 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:21.240 Store to try lens out. Learn more at Bloomberg dot 0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:29.040 com slash lens. David Garray in New York, Tom Keene 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.200 in London. As I fumble here on the Bloomberg, typing 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:36.960 k W one commodity, trying hard to get my hard 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:39.959 red winter wheat up on the Bloomberg, a man who 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:42.640 can help me do that is one Dennis Gartman, of course, 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:45.760 of the Gartman lettered. Let's let's let's get this out 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.240 of the way first. How is hard red winter wheat doing, Dennis, 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:54.680 It's boring, Lee boring, It's doing very little. Actually the 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.920 crop is doing fine. There There were problems last week 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:02.200 with excess rain. But in people one might scoff about 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.200 software or hard read winter week. But it is the 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:06.960 stuff of which bread is made, and bread is still 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:09.440 the staff of life and dreams. Bread and dreams, yes, 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.800 and and the and of dreams. Absolutely so if the 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.640 crop is doing fine. Thanks very much, Dan, it's great 0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:17.320 to talk with you. As always, will move move on 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.680 down out the matter. As we've been talking throughout the 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.760 morning all day yesterday about what we've seen in Washington, 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:26.359 the firing of James Comey, the now former director of 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:28.800 the FBI, and the fallout from that, and we've seen 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:31.399 precious little response here in the market. You note in 0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:33.640 your in your letter yesterday that that might be news 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:35.280 in and of itself. Why is that the case? Do 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:39.560 you think? Well, it is astonishing how everybody's talking about it. 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.600 There are two things everybody's talking about. One, the Cobe incident, 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:45.920 and to the lack of volatility. Utterly everywhere in all 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:49.200 the markets, there is a total lack of volatility. And 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:52.560 perhaps until and you can write this down, volatility will 0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:55.080 return when it returns, and it won't return until a 0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:58.240 moment before then. It will return when nobody cares any 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.479 longer about it, when it has been when it has 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:03.840 ceased to be a topic of conversation. And probably the 0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:07.840 the COMI incident, now that people understand that it was 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:11.800 probably an ungentlemanly manner in which it was done. One 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:16.000 doesn't fire people via node. One fires people across the desk, 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.920 But other than that it probably was understandable. So in 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:21.760 the long term of things, not not much effect, to 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:25.359 be honest. A book that you and I love Dennis Gartman, 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.400 Reminiscence of a stock Operator. You were around when Edward 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.920 le Favre wrote it, um Edwin LaFave wrote it. Here's 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:37.240 a quote. The desire for constant action, irrespective of underlying 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:42.200 conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street, even 0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:46.080 among the professionals. That's a quote from another time. What 0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:50.200 do you do to enjoy not losing money when it's 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:54.200 this boring? Trying to stay upon the sidelines to the 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:58.000 best of one's ability, trying trying to buy break ups 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:00.800 to the upside, trying to sell break up of the downside, 0:20:01.320 --> 0:20:04.280 trying to find the charred patterns that one finds interesting 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.720 that where the fundamentals are are also moving in the 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:11.720 same direction, but on balance keeping one's powder dry. It is, 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.840 it really is astonishing, how boring is the movement from 0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:17.560 the up from the lower left of the upper right. 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:21.040 And it shall continue tom It is always enjoying, enjoyable. 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:23.399 Dennis Gartment. To do a panel or speech with one 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:26.200 g Kamensky. Gary Kaminsky with all of his work over 0:20:26.280 --> 0:20:29.280 the years on making a nut losing money, and he 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:33.320 brought up a Dennis Gartment concept. Explain to our audience 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:38.640 anti Martin gel theory, where you buy more of something 0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:42.440 when it begins to go up, you don't buy more 0:20:42.760 --> 0:20:47.520 something and double down, etcetera, etcetera. Explain that to our audience. 0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:51.520 It's it's a very simple concept in life. If you 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:53.760 do more of the things that are working and less 0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:56.080 of the things that are not. As I say in 0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:59.080 speech after speech, gentleman, if you take flowers to your 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.080 girlfriend or your wife more often and you get lucky 0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:03.919 more often, take her flowers on a more consistent basis, 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.200 and be nicer. Do the things that are working. Yes, 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:09.800 it's true. Do the things that are working, and try 0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:11.600 your best to do less of the things that are not. 0:21:12.000 --> 0:21:13.920 If you buy a stock at fifteen and it goes 0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:17.000 to twenty, the market's telling you that you're right, do 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:19.159 more of it. If you buy a stock at fifteen 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:22.080 and it goes to ten, the market, the collective wisdom 0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:24.960 and the stupidity of everyone trading, it's telling you that 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:27.480 you're wrong. Why would you do more of something that 0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:30.560 has been going wrong. So it's a very simple notion. 0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:34.040 The difference I think between pros and amateurs is that 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:38.040 pros will buy new highs. Amateurs are always trying to 0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:41.600 buy new lows. This is not a business. I've said 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:44.359 this time and time again, and when I deviate from 0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:46.720 an eye er. This is not a business of buying 0:21:46.800 --> 0:21:49.359 low and selling higher. This is a business of buying 0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:52.000 high and selling higher. This is a business of being 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.320 of shorting something that's already made a new low, because 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:58.479 in all likelihood it shall go even lower. Ask Mr 0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:02.040 Ackman about the the What what happened as he continued 0:22:02.080 --> 0:22:04.679 to buy Valiant all the way down from what three 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:07.880 dollars to share and he finally sold out at ten. 0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:10.920 Do more of that which is working, less of that 0:22:11.040 --> 0:22:13.399 which is not, and it will serve you very well. 0:22:13.520 --> 0:22:15.800 Dennis will come back with you. But I'm running down here. 0:22:15.840 --> 0:22:18.000 I have to buy buy flowers. What else should I 0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:20.240 be buying at this point? What's another? One's another opportunity 0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:24.119 to work work argue at this point by by aluminum 0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:28.240 by ball bearings. Everybody laughs at me for the for 0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:31.560 the concept of buying America's largest ball bearing manufacturer. But 0:22:31.920 --> 0:22:35.240 what's more incumbent in economic growth than than the things 0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:39.400 that are absolutely important to machinery. Machines can't run without 0:22:39.440 --> 0:22:42.680