Speaker 1: There eight no party quite like a Marty party. Welcome
Speaker 1: into Fantasy Pros, everybody. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Joe Rico, and today we're going to
Speaker 1: take a look at some rest of season projections. We're
Speaker 1: going to focus in on the bat X from Derek Cardy,
Speaker 1: which we hear at Fantasy Pros of crowned as the
Speaker 1: most accurate projections.
Speaker 2: I want to say, in five of the.
Speaker 1: Last six seasons, very consistently top of the line projections
Speaker 1: coming out from the bat X. So we're gonna look
Speaker 1: over what to expect here over the final two months
Speaker 1: of the year. And we have a great guest intew
Speaker 1: for the first time on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast,
Speaker 1: a dear old friend, Marty Tallman.
Speaker 2: You can find his work over at rodo Baller. Marty.
Speaker 2: Great to get you on the mike, my friend. How
Speaker 2: you been doing, man, I've been great, Joe.
Speaker 3: Thank you for having me on.
Speaker 4: As I was telling you, lof air, my first time
Speaker 4: on Fantasy pro so I can I can check this
Speaker 4: one off the list. But yeah, it's already August. We blinked,
Speaker 4: and you know there's only two months left of the season,
Speaker 4: but it's go time, especially in head to head and rodo.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can still make up some room in the standings.
Speaker 1: I find, especially this time of year, there'll be people
Speaker 1: bottom half of the standings who kind of tune out.
Speaker 1: They'll think the season's done, they go over to fantasy football.
Speaker 1: They're just not really paying as much attention as they
Speaker 1: were in the early months of the season. So it's
Speaker 1: easier to make up some ground to get players off
Speaker 1: the waiver wire. And in some cases here we're going
Speaker 1: to look at the top thirty projected hitters in top
Speaker 1: thirty projected batters pitchers rest of the season, we're going
Speaker 1: to just see if there's any surprise names, any big
Speaker 1: standouts at the top of these projections before we jump
Speaker 1: into it, though, Marty, are projections a big part of
Speaker 1: your process? Do you consult them a lot during the season.
Speaker 1: It feels like for me, at least from a content perspective,
Speaker 1: we hear a lot about projections from December to March,
Speaker 1: and then we don't really hear much about them for
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. But is it something that
Speaker 1: you still go back and consult throughout the.
Speaker 4: Year projections, especially in the offseason are my starting point
Speaker 4: right when it starts in the fall, around first pitch
Speaker 4: Arizona time, you know, we get our Steamer projections. I
Speaker 4: look at those overall just for fun, just to see
Speaker 4: kind of what has changed over the year.
Speaker 3: Then as we move closer into winter.
Speaker 4: I use ATC projections for hitting and I use Oopsy
Speaker 4: for pitching mostly. I mean, there's a couple of different
Speaker 4: reasons why I use the page number one. We have
Speaker 4: to limit recency bias, and I think projections do a
Speaker 4: very good.
Speaker 3: Job of that.
Speaker 4: They bacon aging curves, regression park factors, and typically and
Speaker 4: this is the way I do my projections three years out,
Speaker 4: you know, three years before, and kind of build towards
Speaker 4: the most recent season. But the main thing that you
Speaker 4: have to do, and this is what I do with
Speaker 4: my projections after I put them into my little spreadsheet,
Speaker 4: is you have to make manual adjustments on playing time.
Speaker 4: And I think that's I think that would be the
Speaker 4: biggest takeaway out of any projection conversation is that you have,
Speaker 4: yes that you can look at them and you can
Speaker 4: somewhat rely on them, but you have to make adjustments
Speaker 4: to playing time or you're not using them. Properly, so
Speaker 4: as far as off season, they are the beginning of
Speaker 4: my projections and then moving into the actual Like during
Speaker 4: the season, I use weekly projections to help me with
Speaker 4: my weekly lineups, especially if I'm looking at two pitchers
Speaker 4: with similar matchups, I will typically go what my projections
Speaker 4: say is the best route, and then.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's pretty much how I at the end
Speaker 3: of the day.
Speaker 4: Trust your evaluations. But projections is a good place to start.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think especially the playing time point is really important. Like,
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm going to be better at any
Speaker 1: of the systems than projecting batting average and on base percentage,
Speaker 1: and you know, the home runs per at bat, stolen
Speaker 1: bases per at bat, or per played appearance. But if
Speaker 1: you do think a guy has an edge for playing
Speaker 1: time and they are only projecting him for forty fifty
Speaker 1: games two hundred played appearances, you can't get some advantages there.
Speaker 1: If you are locked into a specific team, you know,
Speaker 1: obviously follow the beat writers and see if there's legs
Speaker 1: up for playing time and spring training and all that
Speaker 1: the rest of season. Though, it is interesting the way
Speaker 1: that the projections do shape out in the way that
Speaker 1: they do adapt over the.
Speaker 2: Course of the season.
Speaker 1: If you look at the rest of the season projections,
Speaker 1: and we'll start on the hitters here, there are some
Speaker 1: names that do stand out that would definitely have not
Speaker 1: been here if you looked in March now, Marty, looking
Speaker 1: at the top of the leader board, Shoheo Tani still
Speaker 1: projected far and away as the most valuable player, Junior
Speaker 1: kiman Aro second, Bobby with Junior third, Jordan Nelvz fourth,
Speaker 1: and the Fernando.
Speaker 2: Tatists Junior coming in at five.
Speaker 1: You mentioned before we started recording that Otani was kind
Speaker 1: of interesting to you see the main standout here among
Speaker 1: the top five projected hitters.
Speaker 4: Well, what I see with Otani, and this is something
Speaker 4: that we talked about, is that sometimes projections cannot move
Speaker 4: fast enough. I mean, they are inherently conservative and they
Speaker 4: are basing their projections off prior years. But when something happens,
Speaker 4: such as knee soreness, that's something you must take into account.
Speaker 4: So when I actually went and broke down Shojo Tani,
Speaker 4: he's expected to have have six more stolen bases for
Speaker 4: the rest of the year. I don't think that's at all.
Speaker 4: I don't think he's gonna come anywhere near that. I
Speaker 4: think we'll be lucky to get one, two, maybe three. Now,
Speaker 4: that may not be the biggest deal, but if you're
Speaker 4: in a head to head league, you know you drafted
Speaker 4: Otani to help you with stolen bases down the you know,
Speaker 4: down the stretch here, and Dodgers had absolutely no reason
Speaker 4: to force steals on him, you know. I think I
Speaker 4: think that's something you have to be be aware of
Speaker 4: when you are using projections, is that up to date
Speaker 4: injuries may not be captured. And I think stole in
Speaker 4: bases is the biggest one with Otani.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a good point.
Speaker 1: Sometimes we can see projections lagging behind a little bit
Speaker 1: on the actual data. It depends on the specific system,
Speaker 1: but a lot of the time these are just the numbers,
Speaker 1: and if there is something that happens off field or
Speaker 1: even on field, sometimes they can be kind of late
Speaker 1: to capture those changes, especially in season. But Otani at
Speaker 1: this point in time, if you look at them, projected
Speaker 1: fifty six dollars player. The next highest is Camon Arrow
Speaker 1: at forty five, and I think i'd agree there. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure he'll be a net positive and stolen bases
Speaker 1: going forward. I still think, hey, you know, if you
Speaker 1: were going to do projections rest of the season, I
Speaker 1: might still have him number one, just because he is
Speaker 1: show Hay and even with the soreness, if he hit
Speaker 1: fifteen home runs rest of the season, it wouldn't surprise me.
Speaker 1: But I think those steals, that is a really good
Speaker 1: point looking at the next group, the name, you know,
Speaker 1: going back to the adapting nature of projections during the season,
Speaker 1: sometimes they miss out, sometimes they hit. But Pete crow
Speaker 1: Armstrong projected as the number seven hit or is not
Speaker 1: something that we would have seen during the course of
Speaker 1: the preseason. This is something that we have seen change
Speaker 1: during the year. And PCA has been incredible. He's followed
Speaker 1: up his thirty thirty year with what I would say
Speaker 1: is an even better performance.
Speaker 2: He's getting on base quite a bit more.
Speaker 1: He's already got twenty six homers twenty eight steals at
Speaker 1: the time of recording. Now, Marty, I would imagine, without
Speaker 1: pulling them up, if you looked at rest of the season
Speaker 1: projections this time last year, PCA would have also scored very,
Speaker 1: very highly, and then he fell flat on his face
Speaker 1: with the final two months of the year. Is there
Speaker 1: any chance in your mind the PCA does fall back
Speaker 1: down to earth. As we're recording this right around fantasy
Speaker 1: trade deadlines. Would you be trying to sell high on
Speaker 1: PCA and get another first round player thinking that he
Speaker 1: might fall off again, or do you think that he
Speaker 1: is a better version than last year.
Speaker 4: I absolutely think he's a better version, and I would
Speaker 4: not be selling him. And the biggest reason why is
Speaker 4: his walk percentage. Last year four point five percent walk rate.
Speaker 4: This year it's all the way up to twelve percent,
Speaker 4: which means a couple of different things. Obviously, the plate
Speaker 4: discipline is better, which means he's not chasing as much,
Speaker 4: and that gives him an opportunity to hit the pitches
Speaker 4: that are good, you know, and put him over the
Speaker 4: fence or put him into the corner for a triple
Speaker 4: or a double. And then if he can, he increases
Speaker 4: on base percentage to where it needs to be for
Speaker 4: him to be elite. I expect him to be, if
Speaker 4: not a first round pick, a second round pick next year,
Speaker 4: probably a first round pick, probably back end the first
Speaker 4: round in most leagues. But I actually I'm buying the
Speaker 4: improvements from the Pik prow Armstrong because of the two
Speaker 4: percent walk rate.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's true. If you look at the entire profile.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the chase rate, which is always something that
Speaker 1: was crazy high. It's still pretty high, but he's gone
Speaker 1: from forty one percent down to thirty three. He's got
Speaker 1: much better contact rates, especially in the zone. He's cut
Speaker 1: down on the swinging strikes, and he's still maintaining his
Speaker 1: barrel rates. His hard hit rate is better than last year,
Speaker 1: raising the ball slightly more like he's just a better
Speaker 1: version of what he was last year. And you're still
Speaker 1: overperforming if you look at the expected slug, expected wOBA,
Speaker 1: expected batting average. But I'm getting to the point where
Speaker 1: I don't care as much because of the improvements that
Speaker 1: we've talked about. His on base rate is one hundred
Speaker 1: points higher than last year. It was two eighty seven.
Speaker 1: It is three eighty six at the time of recording.
Speaker 1: He's got a one to fifty six WRC plus, and
Speaker 1: he has seven point eight wins above replacement here. We
Speaker 1: might be looking at a ten win season here.
Speaker 2: From a real life.
Speaker 1: Baseball perspective, do you think that he takes the MVP
Speaker 1: away from Otani this year?
Speaker 2: Marty?
Speaker 4: As of right now, I do if he keeps this
Speaker 4: pace up, which is it's an incredible pace. But you
Speaker 4: add in the defense and he is one of the
Speaker 4: funnest players to watch in the outfield. He's been incredible
Speaker 4: all the way across the board. And I'll be honest,
Speaker 4: I have I think nine teams and only one of
Speaker 4: them as Pete Crow Armstrong on it because they got
Speaker 4: them at the end of the third round and I
Speaker 4: was like, oh, I'll at least just get you one
Speaker 4: piece of them because.
Speaker 3: I didn't believe in his profile.
Speaker 4: I really didn't think he was going to be this
Speaker 4: because of the bad obvious percentage and the fact that
Speaker 4: he does chase and he his plate discipline was horrible.
Speaker 3: But he's completely changed it around.
Speaker 2: I was in the same boat. I was not targeting him.
Speaker 1: I made a bunch of videos on this channel that
Speaker 1: you can go back and dunk on me for where
Speaker 1: I said to fade Pete crow Armstrong and I should
Speaker 1: be dunked on for it. My thought process was he's
Speaker 1: pretty much the same guy as Michael Harris as today
Speaker 1: in Rafaela. They have a very similar type of profile
Speaker 1: where they can give you the power and the speed
Speaker 1: without great on base raids. Good defensive players, all of them,
Speaker 1: so they're going to stick in the lineup. And I've
Speaker 1: wanted to target the cheaper guys in that tier, which
Speaker 1: were Harris and Rafaela, and finally they've all actually paid
Speaker 1: off handsomely. Not quite to the same degree as PCA,
Speaker 1: but all of them have kind of made improvement from
Speaker 1: that same type of player profile heading into the season.
Speaker 1: The other name that really stands out at least amongst
Speaker 1: the first round players because you go down here, Elie
Speaker 1: Dela Cruz A, Kunya Harper, Carrol Kurtz, Churio, no big surprises,
Speaker 1: but Miguel Vargas ranked as the number eleven headed rest
Speaker 1: of the season from the bat Ax, and it's hard
Speaker 1: to argue with what we've seen this year. Twenty four homers,
Speaker 1: eleven steals. The batting average is kind of low at
Speaker 1: two thirty nine, but he's got the on base rate
Speaker 1: at three forty four. His ops is eight twenty three,
Speaker 1: and he's just improved across the boards from already pretty
Speaker 1: solid numbers last year. Marty average eggsit velocities up, barrel
Speaker 1: rate is up five points, hard hit rate is up
Speaker 1: six points. He's just a really polished hitter going to
Speaker 1: those play discipline numbers. He doesn't chase good contact rates,
Speaker 1: doesn't swing and miss a lot. I'm kind of kicking
Speaker 1: myself for not buying in previously, but I am definitely
Speaker 1: bought in on Migel Vargas going forward.
Speaker 2: What do you have to make of him?
Speaker 3: So coming into the season, I was big on Migdel Vargas.
Speaker 4: I really like the yet a decent last month of
Speaker 4: the year and twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: I did not expect it to be this great of
Speaker 3: the season.
Speaker 4: He has really turned around and when you look at
Speaker 4: his STA cast added, he looks like he's one of
Speaker 4: the best hitters in all the baseball now with his
Speaker 4: bad AX projection rest of season, I am going to
Speaker 4: fade him. The last two weeks, he's slashing one ninety six,
Speaker 4: two ninety six, four thirteen and the strike up percentage
Speaker 4: has gone from seventeen percent all the way up to
Speaker 4: twenty six percent. So we've striking out a quarter of
Speaker 4: the time over the last two weeks. And I believe
Speaker 4: fatigue is somewhat part of it. But I also think
Speaker 4: pictures are just sudjusted. I think after you've shown after
Speaker 4: a few months that you know you are a threat,
Speaker 4: I think pictures start to take you seriously, and I
Speaker 4: believe they're working.
Speaker 3: The in and out of the zone more than they
Speaker 3: did previously.
Speaker 4: And I'm not sure when this does release, but for
Speaker 4: this trade deadline in most YAHOO leagues is August sixth,
Speaker 4: which is today. Sometimes maybe you have some people have
Speaker 4: changed that. But if it was possible, I would sell
Speaker 4: high for the rest of season for Miguel Vargas because
Speaker 4: of this strikeout rate going up and his slash line
Speaker 4: over the last few weeks.
Speaker 1: It's interesting too, because we are looking at the bat
Speaker 1: X and they are the high projection on him. If
Speaker 1: you look at all the other systems, they are at
Speaker 1: least eleven points shy of the WRC plus projection that
Speaker 1: the bad X has. The BAT has one twenty four,
Speaker 1: and that's without incorporating the stat cast data. Oopsie at
Speaker 1: one sixteen ATC one seventeen, Zips at one sixteen, So
Speaker 1: maybe you're onto something.
Speaker 2: The majority of the systems here.
Speaker 1: Are kind of They're not fading him necessarily, but fading
Speaker 1: this ranking of him as a top ten hitter I
Speaker 1: think would be the better way to put. It's still
Speaker 1: a good hitter, but is he a top ten hitter
Speaker 1: in baseball? All of a sudden, I would tend to
Speaker 1: agree that he's probably not quite on that level yet.
Speaker 1: Before we keep it going on to remind you guys
Speaker 1: about my playbook, you'll instantly identify the best pickups available
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Speaker 1: you want to get a free peak behind the paywall
Speaker 1: as well, go to fantasypros dot com slash free to
Speaker 1: check out all of the premium tools. Marty, we're going
Speaker 1: to keep it going with some more hitters here in
Speaker 1: the back half of the top thirty Keet Alonzo at fifteen,
Speaker 1: James Wood sixteen, Jose Ramirez, Julio not really super super
Speaker 1: surprising names. Is there anybody that stands out from you
Speaker 1: from this back group? I know there are a couple
Speaker 1: for me, but is there anybody that particularly peaks your
Speaker 1: interest here in this group of hitters.
Speaker 4: I actually do, if you don't mind, I want to
Speaker 4: take the step back and look at Elie daylight.
Speaker 2: Brous just absolutely absolutely and the reason.
Speaker 4: And the reason being when you look at his because
Speaker 4: you're hearing a lot about you know, he has twenty
Speaker 4: one stolen bases and the hamstring injury as kept him,
Speaker 4: you know, from really hitting that extra level that you
Speaker 4: expected from them when you drafted them in.
Speaker 3: The first round.
Speaker 4: Now he has seven stolen bases over the last two
Speaker 4: and a half weeks, which tells me the hamstring is
Speaker 4: good to go. He is projected for ten or more
Speaker 4: stolen bases rest of season, and I would take the
Speaker 4: over on that. I wouldn't be surprised if we see
Speaker 4: twelve thirteen, you know, stolen bases moving forward. So de
Speaker 4: la Cruse owners, you know, rest easy. The stolen bases
Speaker 4: are going to be there by the end of the season.
Speaker 3: Good Now.
Speaker 4: I was looking at James Wood and Jose Ramirez, and
Speaker 4: mostly because of the injuries.
Speaker 3: You know lately.
Speaker 4: You know, James Wood, he has an oblique injury, so
Speaker 4: I wouldn't expect him until mid September. As you see
Speaker 4: the bad acts, I mean, there's no reason not to
Speaker 4: love what he does. You know, I think he's ranked
Speaker 4: as the sixteenth best hitter moving forward, but because of
Speaker 4: that oblique injury, he may not be up, you know,
Speaker 4: one hundred percent maybe for the rest of the season.
Speaker 4: They said it was mild, but that can still mean
Speaker 4: you know, he's out until September, if not till mid September.
Speaker 4: And Jose Ramirez, I mean man the handmaid surgery in June.
Speaker 4: We've seen that sometimes the handmad phone, when it breaks,
Speaker 4: it can really hamper your season for the rest of
Speaker 4: the year. And he's been having He's in the he's
Speaker 4: in the lineup today, but we've seen the lingering hand soreness.
Speaker 4: And since he's returned from that injury, he has no
Speaker 4: home runs. He has a twenty nine WRC plus and
Speaker 4: when you go to the Bad Express of season projections,
Speaker 4: it hasn't projected for eight home runs.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to vastly take the under on that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of good points across the board. I
Speaker 1: want to go back to Ellie as well, because he's
Speaker 1: a guy that I've always faded. I've never been a
Speaker 1: big Ellie guy. The first round value, second round value.
Speaker 1: I've always worried a lot about the high strikeout rate,
Speaker 1: the fact that, especially last year, it seemed like he
Speaker 1: was playing hurt. So I down the stretch last year
Speaker 1: wasn't a big fan faded him coming into this year.
Speaker 1: But I think that this is probably the best version
Speaker 1: of Ellie that we've seen when he's been out there.
Speaker 1: A fifty two hard hit rate is an eight percent increase.
Speaker 1: His barrel rate, which was already into the double digits
Speaker 1: pretty much every year of his career, is up to
Speaker 1: fourteen percent, and his average eggit velocity is up three
Speaker 1: miles an hour. He's always lived in the ninety one
Speaker 1: mile an hour range, he's now up to ninety four.
Speaker 1: Really come a long way as a hitter. He doesn't
Speaker 1: chase nearly as much as he used to, his contact
Speaker 1: rates are better, and his swinging strike rate at eleven
Speaker 1: percent is really good, especially for a guy with his
Speaker 1: type of profile. So I think next year will probably
Speaker 1: be the first year that I'm a huge target of
Speaker 1: Ali Dela Cruz in the first round.
Speaker 2: I assume he'll still be a first rounder.
Speaker 1: But the more I look at him, the more I
Speaker 1: do like him. Marty so I appreciate going back to
Speaker 1: Ali there, and I wonder with Jose Ramirez if we've
Speaker 1: kind of reached the end of the line with him.
Speaker 2: As a first round player at this point.
Speaker 1: I'm still I still think he's gonna have a couple
Speaker 1: of good seasons ahead of him. But as a guy
Speaker 1: who's always been a little bit on the margins in
Speaker 1: terms of how hard he hits the ball, we're looking
Speaker 1: at a sub ninety mile an hour average EGSIT velocity,
Speaker 1: the barrel rates in the single digits going back five
Speaker 1: years now. Hard hit rates are not great. Where would
Speaker 1: you expect to want to draft him next season, Marty?
Speaker 1: Is he a second rounder? Does he slip even further
Speaker 1: than that? Or maybe is he still a first rounder
Speaker 1: for you?
Speaker 3: I could see a world where you could get Ellie
Speaker 3: Day La Cruz at the back end of a fifteen
Speaker 3: team league and then maybe around the bend, get Jose
Speaker 3: Ramirez as a one to two punch. I don't think
Speaker 3: that's going to be impossible now.
Speaker 4: If that being said, if he has a month where
Speaker 4: he does hit by home run, steal five stolen bases
Speaker 4: in the last few weeks, he'll probably go up maybe
Speaker 4: to that mid first round late first round value, but
Speaker 4: if he continues this, I could see him dropping to
Speaker 4: early second round.
Speaker 3: I think that would be the biggest drop.
Speaker 2: I think you're probably right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wonder I peopleould start to worry about the
Speaker 1: age or anything like that, but I think third base
Speaker 1: as well keeps him higher than he'd be if he
Speaker 1: was say first base or any.
Speaker 3: Other safty three right now.
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's hard to project with this type of
Speaker 1: profile when the cliff will come, but I feel pretty
Speaker 1: confident we got at least a couple more years, and
Speaker 1: if he's a second rounder, I feel like I'm going
Speaker 1: to probably take that a couple of times. Looking at
Speaker 1: the rest of this list of the projected hitting leaders
Speaker 1: from the bat X, I think the biggest name that
Speaker 1: stands out to me is probably Dansby Swanson projected as
Speaker 1: the twenty seventh best hitter rest of season, and it's.
Speaker 2: Been not a great year for him.
Speaker 1: His ninety five WRC plus is the worst he's put
Speaker 1: up since twenty nineteen, Funnily enough, the Happy fun Ball season,
Speaker 1: and it was not a good year for Dancey. Baseball
Speaker 1: is a weird sport, but it really feels like it
Speaker 1: comes down to it. I don't know if you remember this, Marty,
Speaker 1: but there was like a week stretch where Dansby went
Speaker 1: just nuclear. He had a three home run game, he
Speaker 1: had a couple of two home run games. I think
Speaker 1: there was a ten RBI game. Outside of that, It's
Speaker 1: not been a great season for him. He's hitting two twenty.
Speaker 1: He's got a two ninety six on base rate, which
Speaker 1: is the worst of his career. Now, he's still pacing
Speaker 1: out very well with runs in RBI, seventy two runs
Speaker 1: sixty three RBI, seventeen homers and sixteen steals is nice.
Speaker 1: But am I alone here in feeling that this little
Speaker 1: bit bullish on Dansby at this point in his career,
Speaker 1: with what we've seen fro him this season.
Speaker 3: No, I think you're right on now.
Speaker 4: The first two three months did sink, you know, his
Speaker 4: his ratio stats. I mean, you just can't come back
Speaker 4: from that when you're bat one fifty for that long. Now,
Speaker 4: the Cubs are going to continue to play him. They
Speaker 4: never took him out of the lineup. He's going to
Speaker 4: play every single day. And his biggest adjustment that he
Speaker 4: made about a month or two though, is the way
Speaker 4: he approaches breaking boughs. So I think that he's going
Speaker 4: to be able to maintain the two fifty average with
Speaker 4: decent pop and maybe a stolen pupple stolen bases. Now,
Speaker 4: is he a top twenty five bat moving forward?
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't think so.
Speaker 4: But there's no reason to move on, no reason to
Speaker 4: trade him or move on from him in any way.
Speaker 3: He will be better than he.
Speaker 4: Was in the first two months, but he will not
Speaker 4: be better than he was over the last thirty days.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been a really strange season for him, and
Speaker 1: I get again this is just kind of the natural
Speaker 1: weirdness of but in April he has a one eighteen
Speaker 1: WRC plus, in May it's thirty. In June it's one
Speaker 1: twenty seven, in July it's ninety two, and then in
Speaker 1: August it's back up to one sixty eight. He's having
Speaker 1: a crazy August. To this point, they'll probably even out
Speaker 1: somewhere in the middle where he's been close to a.
Speaker 2: League average bat. But that's kind of where I see him.
Speaker 1: At this point as a kind of a league average bat,
Speaker 1: And maybe some of the counting stats that you get
Speaker 1: in a member of a good lineup will help the
Speaker 1: counter some of that decline. We're seeing another guy who
Speaker 1: is going to be thirty three. You actually know he'll
Speaker 1: be thirty three at the beginning of next season, but
Speaker 1: thirty two and a half you start to see some
Speaker 1: of the warran terry. He hasn't had a league average
Speaker 1: WRC plus going back to twenty twenty three. So I
Speaker 1: wonder if this, for me personally, might be the end
Speaker 1: of my interest in Dansby Marty. I wonder on the
Speaker 1: rest of the hitters, is there anybody else that really
Speaker 1: stands out to you that you'd like to talk about.
Speaker 2: Before we move on to the pitchers.
Speaker 4: A few So just briefly on Freddie Freeman hit on
Speaker 4: the hand, X rays negative, but you never know.
Speaker 3: X rays can lie the initial ones that there's a
Speaker 3: lot of swelling.
Speaker 4: So monitor his power and monitor the fact that he's
Speaker 4: thirty six years old and the Dodgers won't push him.
Speaker 3: There's no reason too.
Speaker 4: And I do want to spend a moment on your boy,
Speaker 4: Vladimir de Airo Junior. God not to bring up pain,
Speaker 4: but projections have always been very optimistic on him. He
Speaker 4: has the back issues and I wanted to ask you this.
Speaker 4: There's been questions by the manager about his durability and
Speaker 4: more importantly, his work ethic. You follow the team closely.
Speaker 4: From everything I've seen, he tries to play as much
Speaker 4: as possible. Is there something that I'm missing?
Speaker 2: No, I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a work ethic issue because you
Speaker 1: see how well he plays on defense, and he really
Speaker 1: hustles on He's always been a pretty good defender, and
Speaker 1: the metrics have kind of caught up to it over
Speaker 1: the last year or so. He does have a gold glove,
Speaker 1: but you can see the hustle that he plays within
Speaker 1: the field. I don't think it's laziness necessarily. I think
Speaker 1: there is something going on with his back. There is
Speaker 1: some injury concern there that has probably hampered the play.
Speaker 2: But he's also ala.
Speaker 1: This has been the downside of Vlad I think not
Speaker 1: maybe we didn't expect it to this degree, but as
Speaker 1: a guy who is an extreme ground ball hitter throught
Speaker 1: his entire career, He's only had a double digit launch
Speaker 1: angle once in twenty twenty three, and it was ten
Speaker 1: and a half degrees. This is kind of the downside
Speaker 1: when you're hitting as many balls as he does on
Speaker 1: the ground. A forty nine percent ground ball rate. The
Speaker 1: home runs. This is the worst case scenario that you're
Speaker 1: just not going to hit home runs. He hasn't hit
Speaker 1: a home run at the Rogers Center in Toronto since
Speaker 1: the ALCS.
Speaker 2: It's been that long.
Speaker 1: It's going to be a calendar year, damn near pretty
Speaker 1: soon if he doesn't get one out of the yard.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's necessarily that Lad is lazier, that
Speaker 1: he's not trying. I think there is an element to
Speaker 1: maybe sometimes he can goof off a little bit too much,
Speaker 1: and you see in the field he'll be like fooling
Speaker 1: around with a player who's on first base on the
Speaker 1: other team, and the optics are kind of bad. It's like,
Speaker 1: all right, you're hitting like two hundred over the last
Speaker 1: two months. I don't really want to see you laughing
Speaker 1: and goofing off. But at the same time, I don't
Speaker 1: want to see him miserable. I don't think that that's
Speaker 1: going to help him turn things around either. But I
Speaker 1: do think that there's maybe a little bit of growing
Speaker 1: up for Vlad to do. I think he needs to
Speaker 1: spend an offseason, whether at drive Line or at one
Speaker 1: of those hitting facilities, and really work on raising the ball.
Speaker 1: His attack angle is the lowest in all of baseball.
Speaker 1: He needs to really work on raising the ball. I
Speaker 1: think that inside of vlad there is and I've said
Speaker 1: this before, it's a Hall of Fame level talent. We
Speaker 1: saw him at age twenty two small ballpark or no
Speaker 1: small ballpark, hit forty eight homers and hit three eleven.
Speaker 1: Two years ago he hit three twenty three with thirty homers.
Speaker 1: Like every year of his career, even when he's been disappointing,
Speaker 1: he's still been very good. So I feel like there's
Speaker 1: some mechanical things going on, and also with the back issue,
Speaker 1: there's probably some injury stuff that's been ailing him as well.
Speaker 1: Does that sound reasonable to put it that way?
Speaker 3: It does hit.
Speaker 4: I'm still confused by the man. You know, your manager's
Speaker 4: questioning or you know what he said about Vladimir Deiro.
Speaker 4: But yeah, not to pile on the Chandler Simpsons still
Speaker 4: does have a higher slugging percentage.
Speaker 2: It's it's like unfathomable.
Speaker 1: If somebody has told you that before the season, you
Speaker 1: would have told them that they need to sober up
Speaker 1: and they shouldn't be talking baseball because what kind of
Speaker 1: a take is that that's what you would and it
Speaker 1: would have been the reasonable position. But here we are,
Speaker 1: with two months left, Vladimir Gerra Junior without a home
Speaker 1: run at the Rogers Center.
Speaker 2: It's very sad.
Speaker 1: We're going to get out of the hitters and move
Speaker 1: into the pitchers in a second. But first I want
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Speaker 1: problem called one eight high hundred Gambler Marty, Let's switch
Speaker 1: gears and talk about the pitching leaders. Looking at these
Speaker 1: rest of season projections from Derek Carty's the bat X
Speaker 1: and at the top, probably to the surprise of nobody,
Speaker 1: is Jacob Mazerowski fifty cents ahead of Trek Schouble? It
Speaker 1: is very very close. What do you make of that
Speaker 1: first off? Before we keep going, is Jacob Mizerowski clearly
Speaker 1: decidedly the best pitcher in baseball? Has he surpassed Trek
Speaker 1: Scouble at this point?
Speaker 4: I would this version of Schooble right now. Yes, I
Speaker 4: don't believe he's one hundred percent, you know, after the
Speaker 4: elbow surgery and the six week turnaround on that. Just
Speaker 4: as a Tiger's fan, I've watched nearly every one of
Speaker 4: the starts throughout over the last couple of years.
Speaker 3: And he's not. He's not the full school yet.
Speaker 4: I say he's about eighty five percent him, which is
Speaker 4: still ninety percent better.
Speaker 3: Than most of the pitchers in the league.
Speaker 4: So I would give Jacob Misarowski and what he's accomplished
Speaker 4: this year, I would give him the number one spot.
Speaker 4: But I believe Schooble Sanchez even dare I say, Zach Wheeler.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's been just incredible, but yeah, I give
Speaker 3: it to the Mis as of now.
Speaker 2: I think it is too.
Speaker 1: The question that I have, and I think that a
Speaker 1: lot of people will have, is going into next season,
Speaker 1: what will the rankings look like. I feel like the
Speaker 1: last couple of seasons it's been kind of elementary at
Speaker 1: the top of sp rankings. You have Schooble, you have schemes,
Speaker 1: you have Crochet, and there hasn't been maybe you mix
Speaker 1: and match a little bit, But I think Mizerowski is
Speaker 1: a serious contender for the number one spot next year.
Speaker 1: I think people will worry about, you know, with how
Speaker 1: hard he throws, could he end up getting hurt? But
Speaker 1: in your own personal rankings, I know there's a long
Speaker 1: way to go, but will you have Google backup top?
Speaker 4: You think, Yeah, I haven't obviously haven't gove into them yet,
Speaker 4: but yeah, I would have Scooble one at this point
Speaker 4: Miz too. And I see Mis going in the higher
Speaker 4: especially like the main events. Someone might go one to
Speaker 4: one with him. You don't, It's it's possible.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the NFBC world people can do some crazy stuff.
Speaker 1: You do see some players get shot way up draft
Speaker 1: boards comparative to what you'll see on a Yahoo or
Speaker 1: at ESPN league or CBS. Part of it is the
Speaker 1: two catchers. Part of it is that you're playing for
Speaker 1: an overall, not just for your own league of twelve people,
Speaker 1: but there's overall contests made up of all the other
Speaker 1: leagues competing in that contest, which I probably did a
Speaker 1: poor job of explaining that just there. It's a little
Speaker 1: bit complicated if you've never played with it, but a
Speaker 1: lot of different factors mean that there'll be different type
Speaker 1: of ADPs that you'll see in some of the high
Speaker 1: stakes leagues. And I wonder, yeah, maybe Misowski does get
Speaker 1: taken one to one by somebody. He finishes out this
Speaker 1: year healthy and has a one to five ERA and
Speaker 1: a point eighty five whip.
Speaker 2: You're probably gonna see it now.
Speaker 1: Keeping going down this list, Sanchez is at number three,
Speaker 1: and then Jacob de Grom coming in at number four.
Speaker 1: I got to admit, even as a huge deGrom fan,
Speaker 1: is a bit surprising going back over his last thirteen starts,
Speaker 1: Jacob deGrom hasn't been great. He has a four to
Speaker 1: eighty three ER and he has a one twenty nine whip.
Speaker 1: A strikeout to walk rates are still good. Overall, under
Speaker 1: the hood stats are still pretty good, but he's given
Speaker 1: up a lot of homers, which we have seen from
Speaker 1: de Grom periodically over the years. I personally don't think
Speaker 1: it's justified to have him this high on rest of
Speaker 1: season rankings. From what we've seen, Marty is the track
Speaker 1: record strong enough in your eyes that you can look
Speaker 1: past some of the struggles we've seen over the last
Speaker 1: couple of months.
Speaker 3: I put him more towards the back end of the
Speaker 3: top ten. I don't have a problem with him being fourth.
Speaker 4: I mean, he pitches in one of the best pitchers ballparks,
Speaker 4: and he is debately a Hall of Fame pitcher. You know, Yeah,
Speaker 4: he was, he was able to finish. He pitched a
Speaker 4: lot last year, he's doing well this year. I don't
Speaker 4: have any problem with it. I think that any jake
Speaker 4: up to groam owner in the back of their head
Speaker 4: is always kind of wondering when you know the wheels
Speaker 4: are going to fall off type of thing, and at
Speaker 4: any point where he could get hurt.
Speaker 3: But I don't I don't have a problem with high up.
Speaker 3: But yeah, maybe not four.
Speaker 4: But also I want to take a step back and
Speaker 4: actually talk about the miz because I feel like there
Speaker 4: is there is something that the bad ax is missing
Speaker 4: with Jado Misroowski. Okay, the bad hasn't projected projected for
Speaker 4: nine more starts and fifty more innings.
Speaker 3: I'm going to take the under on the fifty innings.
Speaker 4: Over his last five starts, He's only had two starts
Speaker 4: that were over five innings pitched. There was against the
Speaker 4: Cardinals and the Angels, two weaker offenses. And when you
Speaker 4: kind of step back and you take a look at
Speaker 4: how many innings he has pitched, Let's say he does
Speaker 4: pitch fifty more innings. Jacob Mirowski pitches fifty more innings
Speaker 4: this year, he would end the year at one hundred
Speaker 4: and seventy seven innings pitch, which would be forty eight
Speaker 4: more than last year.
Speaker 2: Plus you got to.
Speaker 4: Put I mean hopefully, if the Brewers do what they're
Speaker 4: supposed to do, they're the the best record.
Speaker 3: In the NL.
Speaker 4: He may be be counted to do another twenty to
Speaker 4: thirty innings, which would get him close to two hundred.
Speaker 4: So I don't think there's any way that he gets
Speaker 4: close the fifty innings pitched. I think his last three, two, three,
Speaker 4: four stars he may only go three innings each. So
Speaker 4: if you can sell him in the head to head league,
Speaker 4: I would absolutely do it. In a rotal league, he's
Speaker 4: not going anywhere. Hold on to him.
Speaker 3: You know, the CA's themselves are worth it.
Speaker 4: But I think the Brewers are one of the smartest
Speaker 4: organizations in baseball, especially when it comes to pitching. They're
Speaker 4: going to save the bullets for playoffs. So I would
Speaker 4: take the under on the fifty innings pitch. What do
Speaker 4: you think about that?
Speaker 2: I think you're probably right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, looking at where they are in the standings,
Speaker 1: they don't need to kill him down the stretch. They
Speaker 1: have the best record in all of Major League Baseball,
Speaker 1: they're a couple of games clear of the Dodgers, and
Speaker 1: the Braves actually surprisingly are pretty much part with the
Speaker 1: Dodgers at this point after a rough couple weeks from
Speaker 1: the Dodgers. But I just don't think the Brewers will
Speaker 1: have any need to go more than five innings at
Speaker 1: the absolute most from Mazerowski. Maybe there is something in
Speaker 1: the back of their minds. I know they're a smart organization.
Speaker 1: I wonder they're hoping to get him a cy young
Speaker 1: and he probably has it, but just let him go.
Speaker 1: Five innings just so he can keep racking up a
Speaker 1: couple of wins. Maybe you know, at the absolute most
Speaker 1: you see five innings, but even that nine more five
Speaker 1: innings starts, and that seems to be the far end
Speaker 1: of it would be forty five innings. You start shaving
Speaker 1: innings off, especially when you are in the head to
Speaker 1: head playoff situation. He's not going to be super valuable,
Speaker 1: like you said, in a rodeo format, you don't care
Speaker 1: when it happens. He's banked all the production that you
Speaker 1: really need in a rodeo format for him to be
Speaker 1: number one. But if it's head to head playoffs and
Speaker 1: you're getting three innings from Zerowski, even if they're three
Speaker 1: clean innings with seven strikeouts, I think you probably should
Speaker 1: do at least kick the tires on seeing if you
Speaker 1: can sell him.
Speaker 2: I agree with you markin is ransom.
Speaker 3: You need a lot, definitely a king's ransom if you
Speaker 3: were to move him, But especially in quality star leaks,
Speaker 3: it's something to think about.
Speaker 2: Well, there'll be.
Speaker 1: People who you know, they drop in Crochet and they've
Speaker 1: missed out on him, or maybe they've had skeemes who's
Speaker 1: been disappointing or other pictures that they've had that have
Speaker 1: fallen off or got hurt, and they might be desperate
Speaker 1: for pitching. And I think you can ask for a
Speaker 1: king's ransom for Miserowski right now. He's far and away
Speaker 1: been the best pitcher to date this season. He's having
Speaker 1: like a Peak de Gram, a Pedro Martinez type of season.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 1: You can ask for a lot and you might get it,
Speaker 1: you might not get it, but I think it's worth
Speaker 1: at least seeing what the market is doing on Mizerowski
Speaker 1: in your league.
Speaker 2: So I think that's a good call out Marty.
Speaker 1: Going down the list here, Again, nothing super super surprising
Speaker 1: for me anyway, until I see Nathany Evaldi projected as
Speaker 1: the number twelve starter. And I like Nathany Evaldi as
Speaker 1: much as the next guy, but this feels a little
Speaker 1: bit aggressive. His season has been a little bit subpar,
Speaker 1: and if you look over the last eleven starts, now,
Speaker 1: he started off poorly. Two of the first three starts
Speaker 1: were blow ups. Settle in a little bit. But going
Speaker 1: back to May twenty eighth, which is eleven starts, it's
Speaker 1: a four to ninety three era for me Ofvaldi. It's
Speaker 1: a one twenty eight whip and he's allowed a three
Speaker 1: twenty Babbitt. He's stranded seventy two percent of his base
Speaker 1: runners in that time, so it's not really a luck
Speaker 1: based thing. He has allowed thirteen homers, which is a
Speaker 1: crazy amount, which maybe that evens out for him a
Speaker 1: little bit. But again, i'd push back on the notion.
Speaker 1: If somebody's looking at rest of season projections, as we've
Speaker 1: talked about, you know, it's trade deadline season, and they're thinking, no,
Speaker 1: I can acquire Evaldi by low getting an sp one here,
Speaker 1: I would push back on that.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, when you look at his stuff plus numbers, So
Speaker 4: let's just go over the last few years. It's been
Speaker 4: one hundred or more. This year it's ninety six. So
Speaker 4: as he approaches you know, his age, he's thirty six
Speaker 4: years old, He's often injured, and the Rangers aren't fighting
Speaker 4: for anything. There's nothing much the Rangers that really can
Speaker 4: do here. I would be worried with Nathany Ivaldi.
Speaker 3: I just the xcra is for twelve the bads.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's around two ninety seven left on base seventy
Speaker 4: six percent, so nothing really stands out there, but his
Speaker 4: one twenty one whip is the highest whip he's had
Speaker 4: since twenty twenty two, so I think that I think
Speaker 4: he is starting to slow down as he reaches He's
Speaker 4: at one hundred and twenty seven innings right now. Last
Speaker 4: year he pitched one hundred and thirty, and then the
Speaker 4: year before that was one seventy.
Speaker 3: So I think over the.
Speaker 4: Next two months that gives him about forty innings left.
Speaker 4: I'd be surprised if he even maintains what he's done
Speaker 4: even over the last month.
Speaker 3: I could see a couple of big stinkers in that.
Speaker 1: I've had some questions recently about is he ad dropped
Speaker 1: in ten and twelve team leagues, and I think in
Speaker 1: twelves I'm holding on mostly, But there was a couple
Speaker 1: of ten team league questions that people said, and these
Speaker 1: pitchers are on the waiver wire, and I said, yeah,
Speaker 1: you can ditch him. I mean, in the ten team league,
Speaker 1: a lot of guys are expendable, but especially when he's
Speaker 1: performed the way he has. And another thing that kind
Speaker 1: of stands out is the fastball, not just the fastball velocity,
Speaker 1: the velocity across his entire arsenal. If you go back
Speaker 1: to twenty nineteen, he was sitting tighty seven to five
Speaker 1: on his fastball. Now it's ninety four to six. Now
Speaker 1: he has added a couple of variations that he throws
Speaker 1: more now. But his cutter back then was ninety three
Speaker 1: now it's at ninety. The curveball used to sit at eighty,
Speaker 1: now it's it's at seventy six. So at his age,
Speaker 1: you see the stuff decline. You see the spin rates decline,
Speaker 1: the velocity is down. I think you have cause to
Speaker 1: be a little bit concerned about Nathany Evaldi at this point.
Speaker 1: I know he's seen year in and year out as
Speaker 1: a pretty dependable guy in drafts. And if you look
Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty one till now three seven five
Speaker 1: ERA three eighty seven, three sixty three, three eighty, he
Speaker 1: was obviously a god last year with a one to
Speaker 1: seventy one ERA. I think that that time has probably
Speaker 1: come to an end. Though for Nathany Ebaldi. I don't
Speaker 1: think that he is going to be the value pitcher
Speaker 1: in the mid one hundreds. For me anyway, I think
Speaker 1: I think I'm stepping off of that particular train.
Speaker 2: Gavin Williams's look.
Speaker 4: Is, oh, I gonna say just a referee of Baldi
Speaker 4: the next few matchups, So tomorrow he's first Baltimore, than
Speaker 4: he's at the Los Angeles Angels home versus Washington home
Speaker 4: versus the Angels, and then finishes the month up at Milwaukee.
Speaker 4: So you may want to hold on to him for
Speaker 4: the those couple of Angels starts, and Washington's been steaking
Speaker 4: good offensively, but at home, I would trust.
Speaker 1: Thee of all d especially because Washington doesn't have Luis
Speaker 1: Garcia anymore. James Wood's gone on the IL, So I
Speaker 1: think even though I think they're still first in run scored,
Speaker 1: first or second for the year in run scored, which
Speaker 1: is still baffling, I think you can stream against them
Speaker 1: at this point.
Speaker 2: I think that is a good call.
Speaker 1: I wanted to mention Gavin Williams just because he has
Speaker 1: been outstanding as of late, and I saw a stat
Speaker 1: I forget who posted it. It might have been a
Speaker 1: Sarah Lang stat that he is one of I think
Speaker 1: it was three pitchers in Major League history to go
Speaker 1: five consecutive starts with at least double digit strikeouts and
Speaker 1: one or zero walks and five straight starts. I would
Speaker 1: have thought that Randy Johnson or Roger Clemens or you know,
Speaker 1: somebody would have done it over the years, but there's
Speaker 1: only a couple names and they're more recent names. I
Speaker 1: want to say Scherzer and Verlander or something like that.
Speaker 1: But a historic run from Gavin Williams and what has
Speaker 1: been an amazing year is era is higher than last year,
Speaker 1: and I couldn't care less because when you look low
Speaker 1: the surface, he's gone from a twelve percent strikeout to
Speaker 1: walk rate to twenty five, which is a super elite number.
Speaker 1: The whip is at one zero four. I think that
Speaker 1: Gavin Williams is a pretty certified ace at this point. Marty,
Speaker 1: what do you make of what he's done this year
Speaker 1: in Cleveland?
Speaker 4: I would put him rest of season over Paul Schemes
Speaker 4: me too, Brad Ma He's got a two ninety one
Speaker 4: Sierra you look under the hood, I mean, it's just
Speaker 4: been the stuff plus one oh five, career high location
Speaker 4: plus one oh four and a pitching plus of one
Speaker 4: oh eight. Last year was ninety nine. So the thirty
Speaker 4: is a thirty two point three percent strikeout rate. Everything
Speaker 4: we're seeing right now and typically I'm going to take
Speaker 4: a look kind of what his next what it looks
Speaker 4: like for him for his next couple of matchups, but
Speaker 4: we're seeing one of those types of runs.
Speaker 3: That it's just incredible.
Speaker 4: I mean, he's going to be at the White Sox
Speaker 4: next home versus San Diego, then he's going to have
Speaker 4: a two step home vers San Francisco at the Angels,
Speaker 4: and then finishes it up with your boys Toronto.
Speaker 2: Beautiful schedule.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a nice stretch. That's an absolutely nice stretch.
Speaker 2: It's like every one of them is like a five
Speaker 2: star type of matchup there. He's just for me.
Speaker 1: I think heading into next year, the question will be
Speaker 1: do I rank him as an SP one or not?
Speaker 1: And he might be just outside of it, but I
Speaker 1: think he's a top twenty SP heading into next year
Speaker 1: pretty handily.
Speaker 2: Is that sound about right?
Speaker 3: Sounds about right? Yeah, top twenty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Anybody else that really stand out to you on
Speaker 2: this list, Marty, whether at the top, the middle of
Speaker 2: the bottom, starters, relievers, anybody in particular that you wanted
Speaker 2: to talk about.
Speaker 4: Yeah, a few, and just afore mentioned a he's not
Speaker 4: a top five sp rest of season now there's no
Speaker 4: injury reported on him, but the fastballs down from ninety
Speaker 4: eight point two to ninety six point nine. His change
Speaker 4: up's been less effective. He's given up more hot, more
Speaker 4: hard contact, his command slipping. It's leading to more walks,
Speaker 4: and I think just overall, the league's just somewhat adjusted
Speaker 4: to him. You know, if he doesn't have the best stuff,
Speaker 4: his best stuff, I think he is hitable. I don't
Speaker 4: know how you feel about Paul Skins, but I probably
Speaker 4: have him toward you know, he's like, I think he's
Speaker 4: still a top twenty pitcher rest of season, but you
Speaker 4: add in Pittsburgh, which has been a better team overall,
Speaker 4: but the winds aren't often there. I just I don't
Speaker 4: see how in this I think the projections do lag behind,
Speaker 4: you know, when it comes to he's not a top
Speaker 4: five starting pitcher. Instead, who I would put in that
Speaker 4: conversation is Chris Sale. I think the projections are sleeping
Speaker 4: on him. I mean, he hasn't given up more than
Speaker 4: three runs since April sixth. We're in August, so it's
Speaker 4: been it's been since April sixth that he's given up
Speaker 4: more than three earned runs and his last outing it
Speaker 4: was against the Mets, admittedly, but six innings, pitch, nine strikeouts,
Speaker 4: no walks, no earn runs, and Chris Sale is one
Speaker 4: of the best pitchers on the planet right now. I
Speaker 4: think he's easily top five. And then lastly, the guy
Speaker 4: someone I wanted to go over, well, Blake Snell. I
Speaker 4: don't know what we're going to get from him. I
Speaker 4: think it's very interesting that the that actually immediately put
Speaker 4: him in to well what number is?
Speaker 3: But is he right now?
Speaker 2: I mean they got him up there, they got him tenth,
Speaker 2: they got him tenth.
Speaker 4: No, there's no I don't know how they can give
Speaker 4: him top ten considering he's barely even pitched this year,
Speaker 4: but he should his Snell is going to be pitching
Speaker 4: upcoming this upcoming Tuesday home versus the Royals. His last
Speaker 4: rehab start he did, and he had three really good
Speaker 4: rehab starts. His last one was it was pretty brutal,
Speaker 4: give up a lot of hits, walk a lot of people.
Speaker 4: That's kind of the Blake Snell treatment. But more importantly,
Speaker 4: he was up with seventy three pitches, so I'd expect
Speaker 4: around eighty from him, which would probably get him to
Speaker 4: round five innings if maybe with him maybe four innings
Speaker 4: considering how many pitches he throws per batter, So I
Speaker 4: don't think he's a top twenty pitcher moving forward. And
Speaker 4: then who I would put in the top fifteen is
Speaker 4: Drew Rasmussen. You know, someone that I was huge on
Speaker 4: coming into the year. I'm buying his projections rest of season.
Speaker 4: I mean, I still don't think even though I've been
Speaker 4: on my Twitter talking about him non stop, I still
Speaker 4: don't think most people know how great he's been so
Speaker 4: far this season. Rasmussen had ha pitched one hundred and
Speaker 4: seventeen innings with a twenty six point five strikeout rate,
Speaker 4: a four point three percent walk rate in a three
Speaker 4: to nineteen Sierra. When we look at his upcoming schedules
Speaker 4: at Seattle Great Park at Sacramento, that's going to be
Speaker 4: a tough one. Sutter Health Park, as we know, is
Speaker 4: a launch pad, but then home versus Toronto at the
Speaker 4: Orioles and home versus the San Diego Padre, so a
Speaker 4: favorable stretch ahead. I think he's I think I would
Speaker 4: put him into the top fifteen rest of seasons.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just perennially undervalued. I think people will always worry
Speaker 1: about the volume. A you're going to get one hundred
Speaker 1: and ten innings one hundred and twenty eight. It doesn't
Speaker 1: even matter how many innings I get from him. At
Speaker 1: this point, he's already paid off. But going forward, it
Speaker 1: just doesn't seem like as big of a concern for me.
Speaker 1: Even if I get one hundred and fifty innings. In
Speaker 1: the current landscape, you take that you're getting one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty eight like innings. People are going to still
Speaker 1: probably have some concerns about him heading into next year
Speaker 1: because he's done this every year of his career, and
Speaker 1: yet he still isn't that expensive. Maybe he does eventually
Speaker 1: get expensive, but just feels like a perennial value. I
Speaker 1: totally agree there. Blake Snell being projected as a top
Speaker 1: ten pitcher is really weird because Blake Snell, you never
Speaker 1: really know what you're going to get out of him.
Speaker 1: But specifically right now, he's going to be coming back
Speaker 1: for a Dodgers team that we know is going to
Speaker 1: go to the playoff. They only care about the playoffs.
Speaker 1: They're not going to push Blake Snell at the end
Speaker 1: of the regular season.
Speaker 2: There's no need to. You just want him for those
Speaker 2: playoff outings.
Speaker 1: He's projected by the bad X for three fifty seven era,
Speaker 1: which is fine, totally reasonable, but a one seventeen whip,
Speaker 1: I don't get it. He's a guy who in his
Speaker 1: career there's only been three seasons ever with a sub
Speaker 1: one twenty whip, and one of them was one nineteen.
Speaker 1: I just don't think it's realistic to expect that kind
Speaker 1: of production from him when he gets backed for this team. Now,
Speaker 1: he might win every single start that he has because
Speaker 1: it's the Dodgers, but I don't think you're getting that
Speaker 1: kind of whip, and I don't think you're getting these
Speaker 1: type of innings either. Forty innings over seven starts. It
Speaker 1: feels like they're pushing it. And I'll finish up with
Speaker 1: my thoughts on Paul Skians. I've been concerned about him
Speaker 1: for a while. We've talked a lot on the show
Speaker 1: Welsh and I about skiings. You look at his last
Speaker 1: fifteen starts, which makes up a good majority of the season.
Speaker 1: There's been twenty four starts total, and over his last
Speaker 1: fifteen starts, Paul Skeins has a five to twenty ERA
Speaker 1: and a one forty two whip. Now, part of that
Speaker 1: I think comes down to the babbup. He's allowed a
Speaker 1: three seventy nine, babbub, he's only stranded sixty three percent
Speaker 1: of his base runners. But I don't think that's the
Speaker 1: entire story. I think what you mentioned earlier with the
Speaker 1: velocity is really important. Every year, the last couple of years,
Speaker 1: he's lost velocity. From ninety eight to ninety nine to
Speaker 1: ninety seven, the stuff has gone down. He just doesn't
Speaker 1: seem like the same guy that he was in those
Speaker 1: first couple of seasons. And we could all expect regression
Speaker 1: after sub to era. You know, you don't need to
Speaker 1: be a savant to project that, but to this extent,
Speaker 1: feels like more than just oh, he's regressed a little bit.
Speaker 1: Do you think he's hiding an injury because I personally
Speaker 1: think that there's something we're going to hear about in
Speaker 1: the off season of Skeins tried to work through a shoulder.
Speaker 2: Problem, blah blah blah blah blah, and that's why this happened.
Speaker 2: Does that sound about right to you? Two?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it may just be fatigue. I mean, you come
Speaker 3: into the World Baseball Classic and you ratchet it up
Speaker 3: as much as you can that early in the season.
Speaker 3: It's just hard to keep going into the dog days
Speaker 3: of summer, and there's there's no proof I had to that,
Speaker 3: but it's just it just makes sense that you've seen him,
Speaker 3: whether it's you know, Plancia or even Scooble. Even though
Speaker 3: he did feel something in his elbow earlier. You know,
Speaker 3: there's been a lot of pitchers who have struggled, who
Speaker 3: pitched a lot during that World Baseball Classic. Now I'm
Speaker 3: still all for it, but I think it's it's a factor.
Speaker 3: And no, I would not be surprised if a guy
Speaker 3: throws this hard for as long as he has, especially.
Speaker 4: You know Lsu. I mean, he threw a bunch. You know,
Speaker 4: he's one as far as he possibly could for a
Speaker 4: long time there. So, yeah, shoulder issue, hopefully it's not
Speaker 4: a no elbow, but I mean, yeah, I wouldn't be
Speaker 4: surprised that they even if there wasn't really too much
Speaker 4: going on that they say there was just to kind
Speaker 4: of just you know, get people off his back a
Speaker 4: little bit because he's still the base of the franchise.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I hope that they signed him long
Speaker 1: term for the sake of baseball. I hope that he's
Speaker 1: not wearing Dodger blue or pinstripes over the next couple
Speaker 1: of years, we'll see what happens. But yeah, I wonder
Speaker 1: if the WBC has an impact. I think it probably
Speaker 1: impacts of all the positions most maybe relieve because of
Speaker 1: those high intensity innings in March.
Speaker 2: It's just not built up for it.
Speaker 1: Starters are starting to get into that rhythm, and I
Speaker 1: think they're probably the second most impacted group. But I
Speaker 1: think we've seen it even from hitters, like the entire
Speaker 1: Royals roster pretty much went to the WBC, and outside
Speaker 1: of Bobbywood Junior, who's doing Bobbywood Junior things when he's
Speaker 1: been healthy, they've pretty much all struggled. And I wonder
Speaker 1: if part of it does come down to ramping up
Speaker 1: into high energy games, high impact games, so early in
Speaker 1: the season before the body's really up for it. By
Speaker 1: an interesting discussion, Marty, it's great to do a pod
Speaker 1: with you. It's been way too long since we've got
Speaker 1: behind the mic, brother, but I really do appreciate you
Speaker 1: making the time.
Speaker 2: I want you to let everybody know where they can
Speaker 2: keep up with you.
Speaker 1: Anything you've got coming up that you'd like to plug,
Speaker 1: let the people know, Brother, Sure, yeah, you.
Speaker 3: Can find that.
Speaker 4: Except Marty underscore Tallman, I'm writing for Rotoballer. The big
Speaker 4: shift I've had for the last two years is focusing
Speaker 4: on prospects. So if you're a prospect person, you know,
Speaker 4: I think you'll really enjoy my work. And Joe, thank
Speaker 4: you for having me on. Like I said, first time
Speaker 4: on Fantasy.
Speaker 3: It was a blast.
Speaker 1: Hey, we'll definitely have to have you back. Marty is
Speaker 1: one of the best people, one of the best hangs
Speaker 1: in person as well. For the couple of years we've
Speaker 1: gone out to Arizona together. Always a great time. But guys,
Speaker 1: make sure you are subscribing to the channel. Leave your
Speaker 1: comments down below. What projections stood out to you when
Speaker 1: looking at the bat or not even just a bat,
Speaker 1: take a look at all the projections.
Speaker 2: What stands out to you? Let us know down below.
Speaker 1: Make sure you guys are liking subscribing, doing all that
Speaker 1: great stuff, and we'll be back again for leading off
Speaker 1: on Monday. But that will do it for Marty Tallman.
Speaker 1: I am Joe Rico.
Speaker 2: We'll talk you next time right here on the Fantasy
Speaker 2: Pros Baseball Podcast.
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