WEBVTT - Rest-Of-Season Projections Deep Dive with Marty Tallman (Ep. 1364) 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:08.719 There eight no party quite like a Marty party. Welcome 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:12.200 into Fantasy Pros, everybody. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:14.600 I'm your host, Joe Rico, and today we're going to 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:17.080 take a look at some rest of season projections. We're 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:19.439 going to focus in on the bat X from Derek Cardy, 0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:21.720 which we hear at Fantasy Pros of crowned as the 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:22.919 most accurate projections. 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:24.400 I want to say, in five of the. 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:27.960 Last six seasons, very consistently top of the line projections 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:29.640 coming out from the bat X. So we're gonna look 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:32.400 over what to expect here over the final two months 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.560 of the year. And we have a great guest intew 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:36.959 for the first time on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast, 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.000 a dear old friend, Marty Tallman. 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:41.440 You can find his work over at rodo Baller. Marty. 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:42.760 Great to get you on the mike, my friend. How 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:45.120 you been doing, man, I've been great, Joe. 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:46.080 Thank you for having me on. 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:48.280 As I was telling you, lof air, my first time 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:50.280 on Fantasy pro so I can I can check this 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:54.640 one off the list. But yeah, it's already August. We blinked, 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:56.680 and you know there's only two months left of the season, 0:00:56.720 --> 0:00:59.560 but it's go time, especially in head to head and rodo. 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:03.440 Yeah, you can still make up some room in the standings. 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:05.720 I find, especially this time of year, there'll be people 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:08.920 bottom half of the standings who kind of tune out. 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:12.600 They'll think the season's done, they go over to fantasy football. 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:14.959 They're just not really paying as much attention as they 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:16.640 were in the early months of the season. So it's 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:19.360 easier to make up some ground to get players off 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:21.600 the waiver wire. And in some cases here we're going 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.120 to look at the top thirty projected hitters in top 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:28.080 thirty projected batters pitchers rest of the season, we're going 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:30.959 to just see if there's any surprise names, any big 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:34.600 standouts at the top of these projections before we jump 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:38.200 into it, though, Marty, are projections a big part of 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:41.000 your process? Do you consult them a lot during the season. 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:43.800 It feels like for me, at least from a content perspective, 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:47.000 we hear a lot about projections from December to March, 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:48.600 and then we don't really hear much about them for 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.000 the rest of the season. But is it something that 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:51.520 you still go back and consult throughout the. 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:56.440 Year projections, especially in the offseason are my starting point 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:00.280 right when it starts in the fall, around first pitch 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:03.920 Arizona time, you know, we get our Steamer projections. I 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:06.840 look at those overall just for fun, just to see 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:08.760 kind of what has changed over the year. 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:11.600 Then as we move closer into winter. 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.400 I use ATC projections for hitting and I use Oopsy 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:17.360 for pitching mostly. I mean, there's a couple of different 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:18.960 reasons why I use the page number one. We have 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.560 to limit recency bias, and I think projections do a 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:22.120 very good. 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:22.560 Job of that. 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:28.120 They bacon aging curves, regression park factors, and typically and 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.519 this is the way I do my projections three years out, 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:33.120 you know, three years before, and kind of build towards 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:37.000 the most recent season. But the main thing that you 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:38.680 have to do, and this is what I do with 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:42.000 my projections after I put them into my little spreadsheet, 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:44.800 is you have to make manual adjustments on playing time. 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:47.200 And I think that's I think that would be the 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:51.360 biggest takeaway out of any projection conversation is that you have, 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:53.400 yes that you can look at them and you can 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:56.640 somewhat rely on them, but you have to make adjustments 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:00.320 to playing time or you're not using them. Properly, so 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:04.040 as far as off season, they are the beginning of 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:07.000 my projections and then moving into the actual Like during 0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:10.360 the season, I use weekly projections to help me with 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.880 my weekly lineups, especially if I'm looking at two pitchers 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.760 with similar matchups, I will typically go what my projections 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:20.280 say is the best route, and then. 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:23.800 Yeah, that's that's pretty much how I at the end 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:24.080 of the day. 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:27.480 Trust your evaluations. But projections is a good place to start. 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.680 Yeah, I think especially the playing time point is really important. Like, 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:33.560 I don't think I'm going to be better at any 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:38.080 of the systems than projecting batting average and on base percentage, 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:41.480 and you know, the home runs per at bat, stolen 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:44.000 bases per at bat, or per played appearance. But if 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:45.880 you do think a guy has an edge for playing 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.160 time and they are only projecting him for forty fifty 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:53.040 games two hundred played appearances, you can't get some advantages there. 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:55.080 If you are locked into a specific team, you know, 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:57.160 obviously follow the beat writers and see if there's legs 0:03:57.240 --> 0:03:58.880 up for playing time and spring training and all that 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:01.800 the rest of season. Though, it is interesting the way 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:03.800 that the projections do shape out in the way that 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.000 they do adapt over the. 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:05.640 Course of the season. 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.640 If you look at the rest of the season projections, 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:10.640 and we'll start on the hitters here, there are some 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:13.520 names that do stand out that would definitely have not 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:17.000 been here if you looked in March now, Marty, looking 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:19.560 at the top of the leader board, Shoheo Tani still 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:23.480 projected far and away as the most valuable player, Junior 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.840 kiman Aro second, Bobby with Junior third, Jordan Nelvz fourth, 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:27.640 and the Fernando. 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:29.360 Tatists Junior coming in at five. 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.720 You mentioned before we started recording that Otani was kind 0:04:32.720 --> 0:04:35.159 of interesting to you see the main standout here among 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:36.560 the top five projected hitters. 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:39.640 Well, what I see with Otani, and this is something 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:44.520 that we talked about, is that sometimes projections cannot move 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.560 fast enough. I mean, they are inherently conservative and they 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:51.600 are basing their projections off prior years. But when something happens, 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:55.719 such as knee soreness, that's something you must take into account. 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:58.719 So when I actually went and broke down Shojo Tani, 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:01.640 he's expected to have have six more stolen bases for 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:04.360 the rest of the year. I don't think that's at all. 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:06.039 I don't think he's gonna come anywhere near that. I 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:09.200 think we'll be lucky to get one, two, maybe three. Now, 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.240 that may not be the biggest deal, but if you're 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.960 in a head to head league, you know you drafted 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:17.280 Otani to help you with stolen bases down the you know, 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:21.200 down the stretch here, and Dodgers had absolutely no reason 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:24.800 to force steals on him, you know. I think I 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:27.000 think that's something you have to be be aware of 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:30.240 when you are using projections, is that up to date 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:32.960 injuries may not be captured. And I think stole in 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:34.719 bases is the biggest one with Otani. 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:36.760 Yeah, I think that's a good point. 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:40.560 Sometimes we can see projections lagging behind a little bit 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:45.119 on the actual data. It depends on the specific system, 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.080 but a lot of the time these are just the numbers, 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:49.760 and if there is something that happens off field or 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:52.280 even on field, sometimes they can be kind of late 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:56.440 to capture those changes, especially in season. But Otani at 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:58.200 this point in time, if you look at them, projected 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:01.560 fifty six dollars player. The next highest is Camon Arrow 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:03.920 at forty five, and I think i'd agree there. I'm 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:06.080 not sure he'll be a net positive and stolen bases 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:08.480 going forward. I still think, hey, you know, if you 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:10.400 were going to do projections rest of the season, I 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:12.200 might still have him number one, just because he is 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:14.320 show Hay and even with the soreness, if he hit 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.520 fifteen home runs rest of the season, it wouldn't surprise me. 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:18.680 But I think those steals, that is a really good 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:21.360 point looking at the next group, the name, you know, 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:25.480 going back to the adapting nature of projections during the season, 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.400 sometimes they miss out, sometimes they hit. But Pete crow 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:30.719 Armstrong projected as the number seven hit or is not 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.520 something that we would have seen during the course of 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.040 the preseason. This is something that we have seen change 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.640 during the year. And PCA has been incredible. He's followed 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.240 up his thirty thirty year with what I would say 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:43.400 is an even better performance. 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:44.800 He's getting on base quite a bit more. 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.039 He's already got twenty six homers twenty eight steals at 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:50.080 the time of recording. Now, Marty, I would imagine, without 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:51.719 pulling them up, if you looked at rest of the season 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:55.520 projections this time last year, PCA would have also scored very, 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.000 very highly, and then he fell flat on his face 0:06:58.000 --> 0:06:59.400 with the final two months of the year. Is there 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:02.080 any chance in your mind the PCA does fall back 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.279 down to earth. As we're recording this right around fantasy 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:07.800 trade deadlines. Would you be trying to sell high on 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:10.160 PCA and get another first round player thinking that he 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.280 might fall off again, or do you think that he 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:13.840 is a better version than last year. 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:17.200 I absolutely think he's a better version, and I would 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:19.960 not be selling him. And the biggest reason why is 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:24.120 his walk percentage. Last year four point five percent walk rate. 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:26.440 This year it's all the way up to twelve percent, 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:29.600 which means a couple of different things. Obviously, the plate 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:32.520 discipline is better, which means he's not chasing as much, 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.720 and that gives him an opportunity to hit the pitches 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:37.640 that are good, you know, and put him over the 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:39.720 fence or put him into the corner for a triple 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:43.560 or a double. And then if he can, he increases 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:45.760 on base percentage to where it needs to be for 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:49.240 him to be elite. I expect him to be, if 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:51.840 not a first round pick, a second round pick next year, 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.520 probably a first round pick, probably back end the first 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:57.400 round in most leagues. But I actually I'm buying the 0:07:57.440 --> 0:07:59.960 improvements from the Pik prow Armstrong because of the two 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:00.920 percent walk rate. 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:03.840 Yeah, it's true. If you look at the entire profile. 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:05.680 You mentioned the chase rate, which is always something that 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:07.640 was crazy high. It's still pretty high, but he's gone 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:09.800 from forty one percent down to thirty three. He's got 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:12.800 much better contact rates, especially in the zone. He's cut 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:15.200 down on the swinging strikes, and he's still maintaining his 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:17.720 barrel rates. His hard hit rate is better than last year, 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:20.880 raising the ball slightly more like he's just a better 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:22.920 version of what he was last year. And you're still 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:25.680 overperforming if you look at the expected slug, expected wOBA, 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:28.080 expected batting average. But I'm getting to the point where 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:29.840 I don't care as much because of the improvements that 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:31.920 we've talked about. His on base rate is one hundred 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.080 points higher than last year. It was two eighty seven. 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.080 It is three eighty six at the time of recording. 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:38.280 He's got a one to fifty six WRC plus, and 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:40.640 he has seven point eight wins above replacement here. We 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:42.600 might be looking at a ten win season here. 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:43.439 From a real life. 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:45.720 Baseball perspective, do you think that he takes the MVP 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:47.000 away from Otani this year? 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:48.079 Marty? 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:50.720 As of right now, I do if he keeps this 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.200 pace up, which is it's an incredible pace. But you 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.600 add in the defense and he is one of the 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:59.040 funnest players to watch in the outfield. He's been incredible 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.400 all the way across the board. And I'll be honest, 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.080 I have I think nine teams and only one of 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:06.360 them as Pete Crow Armstrong on it because they got 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:09.400 them at the end of the third round and I 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:11.800 was like, oh, I'll at least just get you one 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:13.719 piece of them because. 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:14.880 I didn't believe in his profile. 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:17.040 I really didn't think he was going to be this 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.640 because of the bad obvious percentage and the fact that 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:22.160 he does chase and he his plate discipline was horrible. 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:24.080 But he's completely changed it around. 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:27.120 I was in the same boat. I was not targeting him. 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:28.960 I made a bunch of videos on this channel that 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:30.800 you can go back and dunk on me for where 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.080 I said to fade Pete crow Armstrong and I should 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.840 be dunked on for it. My thought process was he's 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.360 pretty much the same guy as Michael Harris as today 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:41.040 in Rafaela. They have a very similar type of profile 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.360 where they can give you the power and the speed 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.920 without great on base raids. Good defensive players, all of them, 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.080 so they're going to stick in the lineup. And I've 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:51.240 wanted to target the cheaper guys in that tier, which 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:54.160 were Harris and Rafaela, and finally they've all actually paid 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:58.080 off handsomely. Not quite to the same degree as PCA, 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:00.240 but all of them have kind of made improvement from 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:03.000 that same type of player profile heading into the season. 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.240 The other name that really stands out at least amongst 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.200 the first round players because you go down here, Elie 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:12.920 Dela Cruz A, Kunya Harper, Carrol Kurtz, Churio, no big surprises, 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:16.120 but Miguel Vargas ranked as the number eleven headed rest 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:18.439 of the season from the bat Ax, and it's hard 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:20.959 to argue with what we've seen this year. Twenty four homers, 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:23.560 eleven steals. The batting average is kind of low at 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:25.440 two thirty nine, but he's got the on base rate 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.360 at three forty four. His ops is eight twenty three, 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:30.640 and he's just improved across the boards from already pretty 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:34.319 solid numbers last year. Marty average eggsit velocities up, barrel 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:36.760 rate is up five points, hard hit rate is up 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.679 six points. He's just a really polished hitter going to 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.640 those play discipline numbers. He doesn't chase good contact rates, 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:46.120 doesn't swing and miss a lot. I'm kind of kicking 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:48.920 myself for not buying in previously, but I am definitely 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:50.680 bought in on Migel Vargas going forward. 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:52.480 What do you have to make of him? 0:10:52.640 --> 0:10:55.160 So coming into the season, I was big on Migdel Vargas. 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:58.920 I really like the yet a decent last month of 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:00.640 the year and twenty twenty five. 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:03.920 I did not expect it to be this great of 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:04.440 the season. 0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:06.560 He has really turned around and when you look at 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:08.679 his STA cast added, he looks like he's one of 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.880 the best hitters in all the baseball now with his 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.000 bad AX projection rest of season, I am going to 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:18.760 fade him. The last two weeks, he's slashing one ninety six, 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.720 two ninety six, four thirteen and the strike up percentage 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:25.840 has gone from seventeen percent all the way up to 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.280 twenty six percent. So we've striking out a quarter of 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.480 the time over the last two weeks. And I believe 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:33.160 fatigue is somewhat part of it. But I also think 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:36.320 pictures are just sudjusted. I think after you've shown after 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:39.720 a few months that you know you are a threat, 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:42.360 I think pictures start to take you seriously, and I 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:44.319 believe they're working. 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.559 The in and out of the zone more than they 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:47.359 did previously. 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:51.960 And I'm not sure when this does release, but for 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:57.200 this trade deadline in most YAHOO leagues is August sixth, 0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:01.600 which is today. Sometimes maybe you have some people have 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:05.560 changed that. But if it was possible, I would sell 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.160 high for the rest of season for Miguel Vargas because 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:11.480 of this strikeout rate going up and his slash line 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:12.839 over the last few weeks. 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.480 It's interesting too, because we are looking at the bat 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:18.280 X and they are the high projection on him. If 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:20.160 you look at all the other systems, they are at 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:24.400 least eleven points shy of the WRC plus projection that 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.120 the bad X has. The BAT has one twenty four, 0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:30.439 and that's without incorporating the stat cast data. Oopsie at 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:34.680 one sixteen ATC one seventeen, Zips at one sixteen, So 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:35.680 maybe you're onto something. 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:37.199 The majority of the systems here. 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:40.640 Are kind of They're not fading him necessarily, but fading 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:42.920 this ranking of him as a top ten hitter I 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:44.880 think would be the better way to put. It's still 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:46.520 a good hitter, but is he a top ten hitter 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:49.080 in baseball? All of a sudden, I would tend to 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.520 agree that he's probably not quite on that level yet. 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:53.520 Before we keep it going on to remind you guys 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:56.760 about my playbook, you'll instantly identify the best pickups available 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:59.440 in your league when every trade with our trade analyzer 0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:01.800 and see the most optual lineup every day based on 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.720 our projections and your specific scoring settings. It is getting 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:06.760 late in the season, but you can still sink your 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:09.920 league at fantasypros dot com slash MLB, my playbook or 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.080 download the Fantasy Pros at for personalized expert advice. If 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:14.880 you want to get a free peak behind the paywall 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.360 as well, go to fantasypros dot com slash free to 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.360 check out all of the premium tools. Marty, we're going 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.480 to keep it going with some more hitters here in 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:25.800 the back half of the top thirty Keet Alonzo at fifteen, 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:30.040 James Wood sixteen, Jose Ramirez, Julio not really super super 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.160 surprising names. Is there anybody that stands out from you 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.000 from this back group? I know there are a couple 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.440 for me, but is there anybody that particularly peaks your 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.560 interest here in this group of hitters. 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.320 I actually do, if you don't mind, I want to 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:43.359 take the step back and look at Elie daylight. 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.640 Brous just absolutely absolutely and the reason. 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:50.240 And the reason being when you look at his because 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:52.320 you're hearing a lot about you know, he has twenty 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.439 one stolen bases and the hamstring injury as kept him, 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.439 you know, from really hitting that extra level that you 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:00.160 expected from them when you drafted them in. 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:00.760 The first round. 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.240 Now he has seven stolen bases over the last two 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.000 and a half weeks, which tells me the hamstring is 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.959 good to go. He is projected for ten or more 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:13.280 stolen bases rest of season, and I would take the 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:15.319 over on that. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.719 twelve thirteen, you know, stolen bases moving forward. So de 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:23.840 la Cruse owners, you know, rest easy. The stolen bases 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.360 are going to be there by the end of the season. 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:28.400 Good Now. 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.680 I was looking at James Wood and Jose Ramirez, and 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:33.400 mostly because of the injuries. 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:33.720 You know lately. 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:35.880 You know, James Wood, he has an oblique injury, so 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:39.800 I wouldn't expect him until mid September. As you see 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:41.880 the bad acts, I mean, there's no reason not to 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:44.400 love what he does. You know, I think he's ranked 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:48.360 as the sixteenth best hitter moving forward, but because of 0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:51.160 that oblique injury, he may not be up, you know, 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:53.480 one hundred percent maybe for the rest of the season. 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.280 They said it was mild, but that can still mean 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.360 you know, he's out until September, if not till mid September. 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:04.200 And Jose Ramirez, I mean man the handmaid surgery in June. 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:07.280 We've seen that sometimes the handmad phone, when it breaks, 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:09.400 it can really hamper your season for the rest of 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:13.400 the year. And he's been having He's in the he's 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:17.560 in the lineup today, but we've seen the lingering hand soreness. 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.360 And since he's returned from that injury, he has no 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:24.120 home runs. He has a twenty nine WRC plus and 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.400 when you go to the Bad Express of season projections, 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:28.160 it hasn't projected for eight home runs. 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:30.200 I'm gonna have to vastly take the under on that. 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.440 Yeah, a lot of good points across the board. I 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:36.320 want to go back to Ellie as well, because he's 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.760 a guy that I've always faded. I've never been a 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:42.520 big Ellie guy. The first round value, second round value. 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.440 I've always worried a lot about the high strikeout rate, 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.200 the fact that, especially last year, it seemed like he 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.600 was playing hurt. So I down the stretch last year 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:52.560 wasn't a big fan faded him coming into this year. 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.440 But I think that this is probably the best version 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:57.320 of Ellie that we've seen when he's been out there. 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:00.720 A fifty two hard hit rate is an eight percent increase. 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:02.920 His barrel rate, which was already into the double digits 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:04.800 pretty much every year of his career, is up to 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.080 fourteen percent, and his average eggit velocity is up three 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:10.240 miles an hour. He's always lived in the ninety one 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:12.160 mile an hour range, he's now up to ninety four. 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:14.800 Really come a long way as a hitter. He doesn't 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:16.840 chase nearly as much as he used to, his contact 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:19.280 rates are better, and his swinging strike rate at eleven 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:22.000 percent is really good, especially for a guy with his 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:24.560 type of profile. So I think next year will probably 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:27.240 be the first year that I'm a huge target of 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:29.000 Ali Dela Cruz in the first round. 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:30.520 I assume he'll still be a first rounder. 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:33.520 But the more I look at him, the more I 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:35.840 do like him. Marty so I appreciate going back to 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:40.320 Ali there, and I wonder with Jose Ramirez if we've 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.000 kind of reached the end of the line with him. 0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:44.920 As a first round player at this point. 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:47.080 I'm still I still think he's gonna have a couple 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.080 of good seasons ahead of him. But as a guy 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:51.840 who's always been a little bit on the margins in 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:53.680 terms of how hard he hits the ball, we're looking 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.880 at a sub ninety mile an hour average EGSIT velocity, 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:59.400 the barrel rates in the single digits going back five 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:02.880 years now. Hard hit rates are not great. Where would 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:05.440 you expect to want to draft him next season, Marty? 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.640 Is he a second rounder? Does he slip even further 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:10.320 than that? Or maybe is he still a first rounder 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:10.520 for you? 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:13.800 I could see a world where you could get Ellie 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:16.000 Day La Cruz at the back end of a fifteen 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:21.160 team league and then maybe around the bend, get Jose 0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:24.199 Ramirez as a one to two punch. I don't think 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:25.840 that's going to be impossible now. 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:28.720 If that being said, if he has a month where 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.919 he does hit by home run, steal five stolen bases 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.960 in the last few weeks, he'll probably go up maybe 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:37.760 to that mid first round late first round value, but 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:40.280 if he continues this, I could see him dropping to 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:42.240 early second round. 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:43.680 I think that would be the biggest drop. 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:45.679