WEBVTT - Navigating Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Trump's Tariff Changes

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<v Speaker 2>All right, let's let's get to it. So we're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>talk about let's talk about in video and video committed

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<v Speaker 2>five hundred. Well before we talk about in the video,

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<v Speaker 2>let's talk about the Trump tariffs again. So over the

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<v Speaker 2>weekend they said that there was a given exemption for

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<v Speaker 2>smartphones and computer chips, and that was very welcomed by

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<v Speaker 2>the technology sector. It said ninety days and then yesterdays

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<v Speaker 2>they came out and said that it'll be a special

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<v Speaker 2>tariff for semiconductors, that this is only temporary. Pretty much

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<v Speaker 2>dampered the whole party. So the market as a result,

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<v Speaker 2>it wasn't as bullish today as people thought it might

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<v Speaker 2>have been if they didn't make that announcement. So okay

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<v Speaker 2>for the investors, that's wondering, how come they didn't wait

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<v Speaker 2>to make this announcement. How come maydn't make the first

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<v Speaker 2>announcement on Monday and at least give people an opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>to exit some positions and then maybe rain on the

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<v Speaker 2>parade on Wednesday.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, he's given all of his friends allegedly and

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<v Speaker 3>what to buy. Shout out to all the congress people

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<v Speaker 3>and politicians who bought calls on Apple and in video

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<v Speaker 3>as a result, better course for you since you go

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<v Speaker 3>rough of office in the next one. Well how do

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<v Speaker 3>you think he keeps changing course so quickly? Like I

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<v Speaker 3>have to go to chat GBT clause oupen on manness,

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<v Speaker 3>Like what's the reason behind all of this chaos? And

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not proberly on Trump's episode, but I don't understand

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<v Speaker 3>why you put out positive news and then the next

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<v Speaker 3>day damper it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't think anybody really knows.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's a very erratic behavior and it's frustrating

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<v Speaker 2>to like market insiders and hedge fund managers and stuff

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<v Speaker 2>like that, because it's like, you know, Dan ives extremely

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<v Speaker 2>happy when they had that announcement that he said, it's

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<v Speaker 2>like playing golf and they moving the tea in the

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<v Speaker 2>ninth and the ninth or the eighteenth green. So it's

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<v Speaker 2>just it's it's very complicated and it's difficult because it's like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we don't know. But we spoke to an

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<v Speaker 2>executive at a car company during the All Star week

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<v Speaker 2>and this is before the tariffs thing came out, and

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<v Speaker 2>he said that it's extremely difficult to do business because

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<v Speaker 2>we don't we don't know the rules. So you can,

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<v Speaker 2>you can once you know the rules and you can

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<v Speaker 2>play the game, but when the rules keep changing, that

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<v Speaker 2>becomes extremely difficult to play the game. So you know,

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<v Speaker 2>when you say that there's a pauseon tariffs for electronics,

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<v Speaker 2>smartphones and chips, and that's that's encouraging news for technology,

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<v Speaker 2>but then when you come out two days later and

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<v Speaker 2>say that there's going to be a special tariff just

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<v Speaker 2>for chips, when that's discouraging news. So within a forty

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<v Speaker 2>eight hours cycle, it is going in so many different directions,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's it's up down. That's why it's a very choppy,

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<v Speaker 2>very very choppy market right now. That's why a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people just wait on the sidelines because they don't

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<v Speaker 2>know exactly what to expect. And we all know that

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<v Speaker 2>the stock markets is going to recover over the course

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<v Speaker 2>of time, but I mean, if we do go into

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<v Speaker 2>a recession and you could see another twenty percent depth

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<v Speaker 2>in the market, So it's it's very erratic behavior. I

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<v Speaker 2>think that he's trying to figure it out on the fly,

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<v Speaker 2>because especially we haven't talked about the ten year treasury,

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<v Speaker 2>but that's something that was extremely alarming to them, that's

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<v Speaker 2>what they said, Like that actually made them change his

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<v Speaker 2>mind more than anything, not really the stock market, but

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<v Speaker 2>the treasury. And when people stop believing in America and stop,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, holding American bonds Japan, that's concerning. That's concerning

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<v Speaker 2>for sure. So I think he's trying to balance so much.

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<v Speaker 2>You see the dollar drop to his lowest level since

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty two, at the people dumping treasury bonds, to

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<v Speaker 2>stock markets crashing, then you got world leaders calling you,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure, left and right. So imagine just being in

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<v Speaker 2>a room with ten thousand things happening simultaneously, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>just like Okay, damn, I gotta do this. Okay, let's

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<v Speaker 2>reverse course, Okay, let's do this, let's do this, let's

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<v Speaker 2>do that. And it's not like something that I think

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<v Speaker 2>this is already thought out. I think it's in game. I

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<v Speaker 2>think he's doing the Peyton manning like omaha, he's calling

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<v Speaker 2>audibles on the fly. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is the epitome of building a plane

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<v Speaker 1>while flying it right, Like we are, we're not sure

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<v Speaker 1>what we're doing, but we're gonna try to piece this

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<v Speaker 1>together as we go. We're gonna make an announcement and

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<v Speaker 1>then we'll try to figure it out as do we

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<v Speaker 1>do it. It's like like last week when it was well,

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<v Speaker 1>the third of April one and with the tariffs were

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<v Speaker 1>going to effect, and then we saw how the market

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<v Speaker 1>reacted to it. And then there was a leak that

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<v Speaker 1>the tariffs were suspended last Monday, and oh it was

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<v Speaker 1>a leak that that's not true, and then by Wednesday

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<v Speaker 1>it actually was true, right, and then Saturday it's hey,

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna suspend tarraffs on semiconductors, computers, and technology pretty much.

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<v Speaker 1>Technology stocks were hopeful like this is great, and then

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<v Speaker 1>by Sunday that changes, and who knows what happens tomorrow, Right,

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<v Speaker 1>we really don't have a clue of what's happening. From

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<v Speaker 1>a business standpoint, it's tough because number one, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>know how much you're gonna pay, and then you don't

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<v Speaker 1>know how much you're gonna make, and so you don't

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<v Speaker 1>really know what to tell your shareholders, and you don't

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<v Speaker 1>know what your revenue is gonna be, right, and so

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<v Speaker 1>the thing that doesn't change for you is the debt

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<v Speaker 1>for sure, Right, that's the thing that you know for

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<v Speaker 1>sure it's going to happen. Right if you're having cap

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<v Speaker 1>expendatures and there's debt that's accumulating that's not going anywhere.

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<v Speaker 1>How much you're bringing in, how much you're gonna pay

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<v Speaker 1>for that, that is uncertain. So, I mean, the uncertainty

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<v Speaker 1>in itself is is extreme. The recession piece. It almost

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<v Speaker 1>feels like we were headed for a soft landing. I know,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was like never going to be a self

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<v Speaker 1>lending but we will had it there, we will head

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<v Speaker 1>it there, and now we got the self inflicted won't

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<v Speaker 1>And now it almost feels like recession might be the

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<v Speaker 1>safest thing if you hear what Ray Dalio's saying, this

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<v Speaker 1>the two negative quarters. By definition, that might be the

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<v Speaker 1>safest play because we've seen that before, and we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>how we've recovered from that before. It could be shortened,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe it's extended, but we've seen that before. He's saying

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<v Speaker 1>that potentially there's something worse ahead, which is a new

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<v Speaker 1>economic world order, which is kind of what we've been

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<v Speaker 1>alluding to in the smallest sense, where it's like the

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<v Speaker 1>rising power challenging the emerging power or the existing power.

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<v Speaker 1>We kind of know who plays in those roles versus

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<v Speaker 1>the value of money, versus internal conflict versus international conflict,

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<v Speaker 1>all happening at the same time, which is dangerous incredibly.

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<v Speaker 3>And for my traitors. How Trump is changing his playing

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<v Speaker 3>day to day. That's how a lot of you are

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<v Speaker 3>trading right now. Please know what your targets are going

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<v Speaker 3>in to this market, regardless of what he does. I've

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<v Speaker 3>always stressed you need one short target to be able

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<v Speaker 3>to get cash flow, one long target to help change

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<v Speaker 3>your life. Second thing, I do want to stress, despite

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<v Speaker 3>how much volatility we have in a market, given because

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<v Speaker 3>of leadership, it's going to be one of the greatest

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<v Speaker 3>bound opportunities of this decade. I do not want you

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<v Speaker 3>to forget that point. It felt like this in twenty fifteen.

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<v Speaker 3>It felt like this doing Brexit, it felt like the

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<v Speaker 3>pain was never going to stop. But even in a

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<v Speaker 3>recession on average the last seventeen to nineteen months, for

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<v Speaker 3>those of you who are locked in, if you can

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<v Speaker 3>buy and hold long term in three or four years,

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<v Speaker 3>you are going to be lady. And we'll talk about

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<v Speaker 3>it later. There are some companies that are dominating Netflix

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<v Speaker 3>one of them. Netflix has moved up my respect level

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<v Speaker 3>a lot. Visa is what most financial services companies should be.

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<v Speaker 3>There's still quality out here despite the BS that's going

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<v Speaker 3>on with his decision making.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, quality, I mean, business is still happening, especially

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<v Speaker 1>when we kind of led with it. But you see

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of money that's being allocated toward AI development

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<v Speaker 1>even in the midst of all this. Right, It's the

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<v Speaker 1>reason why they all met with him and they continue

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<v Speaker 1>to meet with him. Is Yes, part of it is

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<v Speaker 1>his thought is we've been unfairly treated when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to tariffs. But the other part of it is on

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<v Speaker 1>shore manufacturing and based on a lot of what the

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<v Speaker 1>especially the Max seven. They're making a commitment to make

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<v Speaker 1>sure that at least some of the manufacturing is on shore.

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<v Speaker 3>Is it too late.

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<v Speaker 1>For a company like Apple, That's gonna be tough for

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<v Speaker 1>a company like in Nvidia not as not too late,

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<v Speaker 1>because they've already if you look at the manufacturing, I

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<v Speaker 1>know that, and you kind of alluded to it to

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<v Speaker 1>start to show. But that five hundred billion over the

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<v Speaker 1>course of four years, obviously that makes it one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty five billion UM per year toward data set

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<v Speaker 1>of development. That manufacturer is going to start producing its

0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:20.640
<v Speaker 1>newer products. So Hopper is still being produced in Taiwan

0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.320
<v Speaker 1>and maybe some of Blackwell, But at this point going forward,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've seen the road out till twenty twenty seven

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<v Speaker 1>Blackwell Rubin, and I forget that the name of the

0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:34.360
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty seven product, those will majority of those will

0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:37.960
<v Speaker 1>probably be manufactured here. Based on this announcement that they

0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:38.920
<v Speaker 1>had today, an.

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<v Speaker 4>Illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child in Massachusetts.

0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:47.080
<v Speaker 4>An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador accused of

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<v Speaker 4>murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with filming and

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<v Speaker 4>selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just some of

0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:58.839
<v Speaker 4>the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J.

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<v Speaker 4>Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States Secretary of

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<v Speaker 4>Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are

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<v Speaker 4>at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally,

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<v Speaker 4>your next you will be fine nearly one thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 4>a day, imprisoned, and deported, you will never return. But

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<v Speaker 4>if you register using our CBP home app and leave now,

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<v Speaker 4>you could be allowed to return legally. Do what's right.

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<v Speaker 4>Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families

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<v Speaker 4>will be protected.

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<v Speaker 1>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.