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Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Happy actual Independence Day, right, as we all learned, it

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Speaker 2: was July second, and you know, we just did broadcast

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Speaker 2: it till July fourth, so you can start celebrating Independence

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Speaker 2: Day and July second. There's another anniversary though, that today

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Speaker 2: brings forward, and that is we're ninety days from Liberation Day.

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Speaker 1: Do you remember Liberation Day?

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Speaker 2: That was when Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on the world.

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Speaker 2: The markets went crazy. He backed down almost immediately. Then

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Speaker 2: it became the pause with these tariffs, and we were

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Speaker 2: promised ninety deals and ninety days. Well, today is the

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Speaker 2: ninetieth day. Do you think we have ninety deals? Do

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Speaker 2: you think we have nine deals? We basically sort of

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Speaker 2: kind of have two deals. And that's being generous about

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Speaker 2: what a deal is, meaning we have a framework for

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Speaker 2: an agreement with China and we have a framework for

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Speaker 2: an agreement with the UK.

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Speaker 1: So that's two.

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Speaker 2: India apparently is close, you know, in theory, the Treasury

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Speaker 2: Secretary Scott Besson is now claiming that it's more like

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Speaker 2: Labor Day July eighth, by the way, which is coming

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Speaker 2: up six days. If Donald Trump does nothing, then all

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Speaker 2: these reciprocal tariffs go back. We know he's not going

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Speaker 2: to do that, so he will extend that pause because

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Speaker 2: not extending that pause would be financially catastrophic, particularly for

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Speaker 2: him and his wealthier friends, because the markets would be

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Speaker 2: very angry about that, and it would also upend all

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Speaker 2: sorts of in the middle of these negotiations. But need

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Speaker 2: listed it to say, despite the promises of Peter Navarro,

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Speaker 2: which you know, I went to the grocery store, I

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Speaker 2: was looking for some milk, and I think I saw

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Speaker 2: Peter and Navarro's picture on the back of that milk carton.

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Speaker 2: I'm only half kidding here. Noticed who got sidelined and

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Speaker 2: who's no longer speaking much publicly about trade deals. You

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Speaker 2: see a little bit of Lutnik, but notice you don't

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Speaker 2: see a lot of Howard Lutnick either. We see a

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Speaker 2: lot more Scott Bessett, a lot more Donald Trump, a

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Speaker 2: lot less Lutnick, and a lot less Navarro. And I

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Speaker 2: think it sounds like somebody intervened and said, hey, maybe

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Speaker 2: don't put those other two guys out so much, because

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Speaker 2: they seem to create headlines that are problematic. They make

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Speaker 2: promises they can't keep. Howard Lutnick has done quite a

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Speaker 2: bit of that Peter Navarro has said some things that

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Speaker 2: have tied them in knots, and so it is fascinating

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Speaker 2: to me of how much has changed just on that

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Speaker 2: topic in ninety days. But look, let's be honest, I

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Speaker 2: just wanted to highlight that anniversary. This is not the

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Speaker 2: focal point. The focal point, the big news over the

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Speaker 2: last twenty four hours is that the big Beautiful Bill,

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Speaker 2: which it doesn't technically have that name anymore. At least

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Speaker 2: the Senate version that got voted out, got voted out

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Speaker 2: fifty to fifty, needed a tie breaking vote from VP Vance.

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Speaker 2: Three Republicans voted against the deal. Tom Tillis we already

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Speaker 2: knew was going to do it. Ran Paul knew he

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Speaker 2: was going to do it. The question was they could

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Speaker 2: only lose one other vote or the whole thing would

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Speaker 2: have gone down. And there were sort of three nominees sitting.

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Speaker 2: There are four if you believe Ron Johnson. Although I

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Speaker 2: think a lot of people have come to learn that

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Speaker 2: Ron Johnson is all talk. He never follows through on

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Speaker 2: any threat. He just doesn't do it. Whenever he wants

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Speaker 2: to push back at Republican orthodoxy, Donald Trump, somebody must

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Speaker 2: remind him he always folds. Rand Paul doesn't always fold.

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Speaker 2: Ron Johnson always folds.

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Speaker 1: So who was it?

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Speaker 2: Well, it was Susan Collins. So for those of you wondering,

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Speaker 2: is she running for reelection?

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Speaker 1: Is she not?

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Speaker 2: Who knows, but you certainly if you're her, probably would

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Speaker 2: want to be able to say you voted against this

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Speaker 2: bill if you're running for reelection. So clearly she is

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Speaker 2: keeping that option open. She is up in twenty six

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Speaker 2: from Maine. But Lisa Murkowski voted for it, and Josh Holly,

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Speaker 2: another person who was on the fence, voted for it.

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Speaker 2: And what's interesting there is how they sort of explain

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Speaker 2: their votes for it because they hate the bill. They

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Speaker 2: both have still criticized the bill. In fact, let me

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Speaker 2: read you Josh Hollys statement. Now, Holly begins his statement

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Speaker 2: praising an amendment that he.

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Speaker 1: Did get passed.

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Speaker 2: It was a bipartisan amendment that helps the victims of

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Speaker 2: radiation exposure, particularly in the Saint Louis region in his state.

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Speaker 2: So he leads with that. He says, RICA that's the

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Speaker 2: acronym for this Radiation Exposure Fund is generational legislation for

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Speaker 2: Missouri and will finally deliver justice for survivors in the

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis region, and when this Reconciliation bill assigned into law,

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Speaker 2: Missouri will also see new healthcare funding and big tax

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Speaker 2: cuts for working families. Danny adds this, I call on

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Speaker 2: the House to quickly pass this legislation and send it.

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Speaker 1: To President Trump's desk and now the butt. But let

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Speaker 1: me be.

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Speaker 2: Clear, I will continue to do everything in my power

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Speaker 2: to reverse future cuts to medicate. If Republicans want to

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Speaker 2: be the party of the working class, we cannot cut

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Speaker 2: health insurance for working people.

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Speaker 1: So what did he just say? They did?

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Speaker 2: Essentially, Josh Holly's statement explaining his vote for it also

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Speaker 2: says we cannot cut health insurance for working people, which

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Speaker 2: means he is admitting they just cut health insurance for

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Speaker 2: working people. So they got to own that.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: What's funny is just a few days ago, Josh Holly

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Speaker 2: said this, This has been an unhappy episode here in Congress,

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Speaker 2: this effort to cut Medicaid, and I think, frankly, my

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Speaker 2: party needs to do some soul searching. If you want

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Speaker 2: to be a hard working, be a working class party,

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Speaker 2: you've got to deliver for working class people. You cannot

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Speaker 2: take away health care from working people. Unless this has

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Speaker 2: changed going forward, that is what will happen in coming years.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to do everything i can to stop that.

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Speaker 2: Well, no, he didn't because he could have voted for it,

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Speaker 2: which would have forced an entire it would have forced

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Speaker 2: essentially everything to go back to the drawing board. Now,

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Speaker 2: let me take you to Lisa Murkowski. Lisa Murkowski also

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Speaker 2: decided to vote for this. Now here's what Lisa Murkowski

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Speaker 2: explained why she voted for it. Number One, she said, look,

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Speaker 2: if you kill it and it's gone, there is a

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Speaker 2: tax impact coming forward that's going to hurt people in

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Speaker 2: my state. So because of the tax provisions, and just

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Speaker 2: to remember, in this big beautiful bill, it's the extension

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Speaker 2: of those Trump tax cuts from from twenty eighteen. Now,

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Speaker 2: ironically the way had had been set up at the time.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump was hoping never to have to be responsible

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Speaker 2: for deciding whether his tax cuts would get extended or not.

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Speaker 2: They were due to expire in theory at the end

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Speaker 2: of his second term, but he didn't win reelection in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty. He lost, which meant they expired in the

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Speaker 2: first year of his new second term. Right, he was

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Speaker 2: hoping another president would have to deal with this, another

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Speaker 2: Republican party would have to deal with this, but nope,

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Speaker 2: his party had to do it. So of course he

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Speaker 2: has to extend it, because if he doesn't extend it

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Speaker 2: because of these ridiculous reconciliation proposals where everything is they

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Speaker 2: pretend they somehow have made something impact the deficit less

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Speaker 2: than it has. Right, they create an exit inspiration date

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Speaker 2: for the tax cut. So they create this fantasy expiration

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Speaker 2: date of eight years down the road when they passed

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Speaker 2: it the first time, in order to let somebody else decide, oh,

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Speaker 2: do you want to get allow that tax cuts to

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Speaker 2: expire and therefore essentially raising taxes on everybody. So that's

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Speaker 2: what she's referring to there. But then she adds this

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Speaker 2: to reporters. Markowski said, my hope is that the House

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Speaker 2: is going to look at this and recognize that we're

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Speaker 2: not there yet. So Josh Holly wants the House to

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Speaker 2: immediately pass this bill, send it to the President's desk

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Speaker 2: by the July fourth deadline. Lisa Murkowski is saying, oh, please, House, Republicans,

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Speaker 2: don't vote for this, send it back to the Senate.

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Speaker 2: She has this, I guess quaint notion that she somehow

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Speaker 2: wants Congress to work the way it did in the

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Speaker 2: twentieth century, when you know, how does you know if

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Speaker 2: you actually watched the Schoolhouse Rock kind of how a

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Speaker 2: bill became a law at least some pingponging back between

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Speaker 2: the House and the Senate.

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Speaker 1: But of course Donald Trump doesn't want that. So let

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Speaker 1: me tell you.

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Speaker 2: You know, and you're seeing a lot of people on

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Speaker 2: the left are jumping on Lisa Murkowski, banging her on this,

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Speaker 2: and think, look, she has always been Alaska first. She's

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Speaker 2: not America first. She is Alaska first. And if she

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Speaker 2: can get a deal, a special carve out deal for Alaska,

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Speaker 2: she'll do it. She'll take it, and she becomes a

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Speaker 2: vote for it. And she's done it for Democratic legislation

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Speaker 2: in the past, she's done it for Republican legislation. On

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Speaker 2: that she's consistent. She's very transactional about this when it

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Speaker 2: comes representing Alaska. And arguably it's how she got elected

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Speaker 2: right in order, you know, because she didn't win a

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Speaker 2: Republican primary. She lost a Republican primary, so she wasn't

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Speaker 2: beholding the Republican voters, but she was beholden to the

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Speaker 2: deal she cut in her mind, and that's why if

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Speaker 2: she thinks she can get something that's better for Alaska,

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Speaker 2: she's going to take that deal.

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Speaker 1: So she's going to take the deal. But she was

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Speaker 1: hoping the House kills it. Right.

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Speaker 2: This is one of those that maybe Josh Holly secretly

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Speaker 2: wants that too, maybe Ron Johnson secretly wants that.

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Speaker 1: We know Rand Paul does. But guess what's not going

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Speaker 1: to happen. The House is not going to vote this down.

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Speaker 2: For all the like as if the Freedom Caucus is

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Speaker 2: is you want to talk about the Crying Wolf Caucus,

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Speaker 2: the Freedom Caucus ought to change their name to the

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Speaker 2: Crying How many times I'll see my friends at punch

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Speaker 2: Bull say, oh, the Freedom Caucus has problems with something, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and they'll do nothing about it, and they'll all fall

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Speaker 2: in line, except for the one or two that don't

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Speaker 2: have to because they'll have just enough margin to be

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Speaker 2: able to claim, well, I didn't vote for it, but

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Speaker 2: it's still passed. You know, vote no, hope yes type

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Speaker 2: of mindset. And remember the chief Whip of the House

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Speaker 2: Republicans is not the Speaker of the House. It is

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Speaker 2: not the actual whip, It is not the majority of there.

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Speaker 2: It is Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: So you know the.

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Speaker 2: Whole point of that exercise last week of attacking Thomas

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Speaker 2: Massey and literally lining up a primary challenger and getting

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Speaker 2: consultants to show up and all.

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Speaker 1: You know what all that was.

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Speaker 2: It was a demonstration to anybody else who chooses to

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Speaker 2: cross Donald Trump, right, it's a threat. Why did Josh

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Speaker 2: Holly not vote? Why did he vote against this? He

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Speaker 2: knows he is voting against the interests of his constituents,

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Speaker 2: So why did he vote against it? Because here's the

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Speaker 2: dirty little secret. His constituents would have punished him for

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Speaker 2: supporting Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: It would have been it would have.

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Speaker 2: Been seen not as somebody standing up on principle trying

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Speaker 2: to defend medicaid access for all of his constituents. He

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Speaker 2: had been seen by those same people who don't want

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Speaker 2: to see those Medicaid cuts. Mind you, you can't betray

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. That's a betrayal of Donald Trump. And it's

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Speaker 2: a very powerful tool that Donald Trump currently has in

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Speaker 2: the toolbox. Eventually the tool won't work, but it still works,

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Speaker 2: and it's going to get this house built through. But

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Speaker 2: it brings up a larger point, and this is the

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Speaker 2: topic of my sub stack this week, and it's a

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Speaker 2: it's a larger point that I want to make today,

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Speaker 2: and this this week is just a pure, a pure

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Speaker 2: and perfect example of how broken Congress is. It is

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Speaker 2: broken and it is not working the way it's supposed

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Speaker 2: to do. And if you think about all the structural

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Speaker 2: problems in our democracy right now, all of them have

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Speaker 2: their roots in this dysfunctional broken Congress. Congress is, particularly

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Speaker 2: in the twenty first century, is is.

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Speaker 1: On a level of dysfunction that we have not seen before.

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Speaker 2: Yes, piling on Congress and blaming Congress for things. You know,

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Speaker 2: Mark Twain told jokes about Congress. You know, Johnny Carson

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Speaker 2: did it, Jack Parr did it.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm you know every you know.

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Speaker 2: So beating up Congress is not new and blaming Congress

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Speaker 2: for everything. But Congress really has changed how it functions.

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Speaker 1: It is.

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Speaker 2: It is not you know, if you go and go

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Speaker 2: back and watch Schoolhouse Rock, there are no conference committees

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Speaker 2: that are taken seriously anymore. They're not bipartisan amendments that

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Speaker 2: get taken seriously anymore. There's not these back and forth

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Speaker 2: where you have where committee chairs get to actually write

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Speaker 2: legislation anymore. It's written all in a back room, it's

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Speaker 2: written in the Speaker's office, or it's written in the

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Speaker 2: Oval office. And this isn't just a Republican thing we're witnessing, Frankly,

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Speaker 2: this is the same dynamic we're seeing play out right now.

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Speaker 2: They're sort of jamming this on party line votes and

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Speaker 2: the Senate in the House. Okay, it's about the same

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Speaker 2: way the Democrats did it with Biden just three or

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Speaker 2: four years ago when they had full control. And this

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Speaker 2: is how all legislation has been conducted in the twenty

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Speaker 2: first century. When one party has control of the White House,

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Speaker 2: House and Senate, they precariously try to jam legislation in

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Speaker 2: do so on the partisan effort, try to find compromise

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Speaker 2: between the most liberal member of their party and conservative

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Speaker 2: member of their party, not at all working with the

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Speaker 2: other side. The other side decides to do nothing but

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Speaker 2: come up the works. We're going to make you read

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Speaker 2: the bill, right, that's a Republican trick. Then Schumer picked

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Speaker 2: up and he did it on the Democratic side. So

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Speaker 2: we're going to waste another sixteen hours just reading every

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Speaker 2: bit of the bill, and then we're going to write

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Speaker 2: crazy amendments that try to make you vote for or

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Speaker 2: against things that will look terrible in a direct mail

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Speaker 2: piece in your re elections. And you know, the Republicans

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Speaker 2: did it to the build back Better, the Democrats did

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Speaker 2: it to the big beautiful bill. All these BBB's right,

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Speaker 2: and you know, it's just it is what it is. Now.

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Speaker 2: The question is, you know, how did we get here?

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Speaker 2: How did it get this broken? You know, look there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of finger pointing, right, you know that You

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Speaker 2: talk to an old school Democrat and they'll blame the

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Speaker 2: rise of Nut Gingrich and his targeting of Jim Wright

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Speaker 2: that he partisanized. He took Congress away from being an

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Speaker 2: institution that was a check on the presidency, that was

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Speaker 2: the legislative branch, and instead turned it into a partisan

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Speaker 2: And then now old school Republics would say, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Democrats started at first, and they'll point to an

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Speaker 2: incident in the middle eighties, an Indiana House race where

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Speaker 2: the Democratic majority just decided to Clara a winner in

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Speaker 2: a disputed election. Because Congress does have that power. It's

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Speaker 2: not a secretary state in a given state, it's actually

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Speaker 2: Congress that is the final adjudicator when it comes to

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Speaker 2: disputed elections. Having to do with who's served in the

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Speaker 2: US House Representatives, and the Democrats just on a party

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Speaker 2: line vote said, oh screw it, we don't care what

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Speaker 2: the recount says. We're declaring the Democrat the win the winner.

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Speaker 2: Which so here's the thing. They both have dirty hands. Okay,

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Speaker 2: both parties have gotten have weaponized partisanship into the House,

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Speaker 2: had dysfunctionized a place in so many ways. Look, if

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Speaker 2: you actually look at it, right, we you know why

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Speaker 2: is ore? If you look at all the different things

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Speaker 2: we have issues with in our broken democracy. You have

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Speaker 2: the judiciary broken by the US Senate. Right, you have

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Speaker 2: the inability to deal with taxes and with our debt

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Speaker 2: and deficit, with anything having to do with entitlements, well

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Speaker 2: that's thanks to thanks to the House. Right, it is

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Speaker 2: all of this stuff. Are you tired of the presidency

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Speaker 2: having so much power? You can think for not standing

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Speaker 2: up to the president at all on some of these

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Speaker 2: executive issues, And it's it's it is why we're in

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Speaker 2: this situation. This isn't how we're supposed to make legislation.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, you know what's going to happen

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Speaker 2: about a third of this legislation. The same thing that

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Speaker 2: happened to the Democrats, which is Republicans came in and

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Speaker 2: they've tried to undo as much as they could with

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Speaker 2: Biden right on his bill. I promise you if Democrats

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Speaker 2: get the full you know, the troika of the House

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Speaker 2: and the Senate and the Presidency in twenty twenty nine,

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Speaker 2: their big bill is going to try to repeal parts

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Speaker 2: of the Trump Bill that they think is the most unpopular.

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Speaker 1: And we're going to keep doing this ping ponging.

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Speaker 2: Back and forth, which is going to do what create

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Speaker 2: more instability in our economy, create or more instability about

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Speaker 2: our political system, and make it harder and harder for

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Speaker 2: the rest of the world to know how much can

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Speaker 2: they rely in the United States. You want to know

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Speaker 2: why the dollar is so weak and why there's all

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Speaker 2: these stories you're seeing about a week dollar because the

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Speaker 2: United States doesn't look like the safe haven it once was. Right,

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Speaker 2: our political system is broken. Congress broke it, and we've

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Speaker 2: got to figure out how to fix it. So how

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Speaker 2: do we fix it? Well, look, I do think there's

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Speaker 2: you know, one of the problems is is us right,

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Speaker 2: we in the media need to look in the mirror

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Speaker 2: if the public doesn't fully understand how far Congress has

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Speaker 2: drifted from its original design of the Founders Article one

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Speaker 2: powers right, the center of democracy was supposed to be

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Speaker 2: through the legislative branch. That's actually on us in the media, right.

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Speaker 2: We haven't sounded the alarm consistently. We haven't covered Congress

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Speaker 2: like the failing institution that it is, and especially in

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Speaker 2: that the newer generations of reporters, many of whom have

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Speaker 2: never seen Congress function.

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Speaker 1: Any other way.

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Speaker 2: When I first got here, the committee chairs were the powerhouses,

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Speaker 2: and frankly, that was by design, and that was that

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Speaker 2: was the hope. That was why the twentieth century version

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Speaker 2: of Congress got a lot of stuff done in various ways,

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Speaker 2: and it didn't matter which party was in charge, but

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Speaker 2: a lot of it got done because committee chairs were empowered.

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Speaker 2: And then that was something first new Ingrid's disempowered committee chairs,

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Speaker 2: and then the Democrats responded in the same way. All

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Speaker 2: of it has been about strengthening the two or three

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Speaker 2: leaders at the top.

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Speaker 1: And weakening.

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Speaker 2: The committee chairs at the bottom. So one of the

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Speaker 2: ways if we want to fix this is we've got

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Speaker 2: to all do a better job of educating the public

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Speaker 2: on how it's broken. And why and how far we

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Speaker 2: went away from the original intent of the founders, because

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Speaker 2: I do believe this. You can say something is broken,

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Speaker 2: but if you offer people something new, they're going to

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Speaker 2: be a little they're going to be a little.

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Speaker 1: Nervous about it.

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Speaker 2: But if you ground it and the fact that, hey,

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Speaker 2: we used to do it this way, you actually have

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Speaker 2: a better shot.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: Why, I hear anybody talk about original intent, Right, you'll

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Speaker 2: hear that in some legal debates about original intent of

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Speaker 2: the Constitution or original intent of the founders. Well, the

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Speaker 2: original intent was for Congress to function far differently than

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Speaker 2: it functioned today. So how do we fix it? I

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Speaker 2: go to get back on my hobby horse. I don't

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Speaker 2: think the two party system can do it alone. That's

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Speaker 2: the problem here, Right, We've got this sort of you know,

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Speaker 2: both parties or that with the parties or two entrench

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Speaker 2: or to beholden to their own interest groups. And you

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Speaker 2: look at what the Republicans have done. Their voters and

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Speaker 2: their donors don't have the same priorities, and yet they

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Speaker 2: created a bill that tried to deal with both. Oh

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Speaker 2: we'll try this, no taxes on tips over here, but

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Speaker 2: get these huge tax breaks over here, we'll tell them

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Speaker 2: we're not going to cut medicaid, but we're going to.

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Speaker 1: Try to cut medicaid.

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Speaker 2: But but you know, as Mitch McConnell said, they'll get

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Speaker 2: over it, will they. We'll find out in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know if the answer is the third party.

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Speaker 1: I mean, do I do?

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Speaker 2: I think it should be sure, But we've got this

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Speaker 2: duopoly of the of ballid access issues. But there is

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Speaker 2: a potential model, and it sort of involves perhaps in

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Speaker 2: you know, soft partisans becoming hardcore independence, right, Lisa Murkowski

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Speaker 2: actually making her rhetoric.

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Speaker 1: And putting it into action.

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Speaker 2: If you will, imagine six to eight Senators and twenty

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Speaker 2: to twenty five House members who behave more as independents

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Speaker 2: and institutionalists and not as partisan hacks for either Team

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Speaker 2: Blue or Team Red, and they behave where people who

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Speaker 2: refuse to empower leaders unless they commit to certain reforms,

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Speaker 2: commit to certain institutional reforms, whether it's forcing conference committees

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Speaker 2: so that you don't go around the filibuster, actually let

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Speaker 2: legislation be filibustered and force the filibuster to be a

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Speaker 2: talking filibuster. Right, you can do both things at the

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Speaker 2: same time, that group could swing real power. They could

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Speaker 2: demand more accountability, and they could force both parties to

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Speaker 2: the table. Especially, this movement was big enough where it

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Speaker 2: prevented where whichever side they decide to go with it

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Speaker 2: would put that side in power. Right, We've actually seen

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Speaker 2: hints of it during the Democrats back and forth right

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Speaker 2: Mansion Cinema. They were able to at least force some

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Speaker 2: change when they withheld their votes for a brief period

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Speaker 2: of time. Murkowski and Ran Paul and Ron Johnson kind

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Speaker 2: of sorted did the same thing.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: So if ten of them got together and actually put

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Speaker 2: the institution before their political parties, I know that's a

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Speaker 2: lot to ask. I think you'd have different behaviors and

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Speaker 2: you would have a longer process here. I mean, this

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Speaker 2: deadline is just Donald Trump being impatient, right, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: doesn't have the attention span to have to deal with

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Speaker 2: this legislation for as long as Joe Biden had to

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Speaker 2: remember Joe Biden's build back better. This got stretched out,

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Speaker 2: you know, there was they wanted to get it done

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Speaker 2: by the summer, then they wanted to get it done

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Speaker 2: by the fall, and then it just kept punting and

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Speaker 2: punting and punting. And you know, he was playing a

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Speaker 2: little more soft diplomat and trying to get everybody on board.

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Speaker 2: Trump is a sledgehammer when it comes to this stuff,

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Speaker 2: and he gets bored very quickly, and he wants to

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Speaker 2: move on. So he wants to hurry up and sign

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Speaker 2: this bill, regardless of whether it's an effective bill or not.

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Speaker 2: But he wants to be able to say I'm done

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Speaker 2: here it is and good luck America. But the fact

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Speaker 2: is this should be take longer. This should take the

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Speaker 2: rest of the calendar year if Congress actually cared about

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Speaker 2: the impact of what the small things of this bill

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Speaker 2: would look like.

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Speaker 1: But if you could get that.

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Speaker 2: If you get these and you know, whether it's Angus King,

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Speaker 2: you know these these so called independence if they actually

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Speaker 2: behaved as independent, maybe that's what would work. But here's

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Speaker 2: the reality. Our democracy is structurally broken and the institution

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Speaker 2: and we can't fix it until Congress itself gets fixed

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Speaker 2: because all of the problems of this democracy are derivative

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Speaker 2: of Congressional decisions. Okay, And until Congress becomes an institution

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Speaker 2: rather than a stage for partisanship, we're going to continue

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Speaker 2: down this road of dysfunctional, broken politics. And what happens

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Speaker 2: is we take where we are right now, which is

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Speaker 2: we're bordering on a kleptocracy where pay for play is

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Speaker 2: everything right, and this bill is pretty emblematic of that,

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Speaker 2: and step this next stage after kleptocracy is full on authoritarianism.

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Speaker 2: And we're in the kleptocracy stage of this, and the

437
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 2: only way we can pull it back is if we

438
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:27,239
Speaker 2: restore institution, the institution of Congress. Because whatever the issue is,

439
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: if you care about this polarized judiciary and the fact

440
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 2: that the rule of law is seen more through political

441
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: lenses than through the constitution, blame Congress. If you're upset

442
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 2: that the debt is out of control and is potentially

443
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 2: putting us on a path to catastrophic economic conditions in

444
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 2: a decade, blame Congress. If you think our campaign finance

445
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 2: reform system is essentially beyond broken, this pay for play

446
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 2: system is only creating a bigger problem with our debt,

447
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 2: let alone corruption in playing site. Once again, blame Congress.

448
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 2: You don't like the climate policy, you feel as if

449
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 2: this this this Congress isn't focusing.

450
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: On that enough.

451
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 2: Again, blame Congress. Congress created the mess, and only Congress

452
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 2: can clean it up. It's the first place we have

453
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: to go to reform. You know, I think we need

454
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 2: to double the size of Congress, But I don't think

455
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 2: anybody wants to double the size of Congress and make

456
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 2: it more representative of the people if we don't have

457
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 2: a functional institution and guardrails back at it. But you know,

458
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, you know, I don't think he has any

459
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 2: clue that the Speaker of the House is supposed to

460
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 2: be the head of the legislative branch first and a

461
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 2: partisan second. But he's never seen Congress function any differently.

462
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: We've been down that we've been functioning as this sort

463
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: of quasi parliamentary system in the House essentially since the

464
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: rise of New Ingrid, and it doesn't work in the

465
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 2: system we're at. And all it's done is created a

466
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 2: more powerful presidency that's been harder to hold to account,

467
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: a partisan judiciary that has people not trust, believing that

468
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: essentially the rule of law is enforced through partisan lenses,

469
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: and we can't seem to tackle the real problems that

470
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 2: we have to tackle because of what I would call

471
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: such We so prioritize trying to keep the power that

472
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: you have that you're afraid of actually risking power to

473
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 2: get something done right. Josh Holly is afraid of risking

474
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: his political career.

475
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 1: To do what he believed would be the right thing.

476
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: And as long as we're in a system where here's

477
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: the thing. I and from just a pure selfish perspective,

478
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: his calculus is right if he if he goes against

479
00:24:56,080 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Ask Jeff Flake how that works, Bob Corker

480
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 2: how that works. Ask Tom Tillis how that's working. I

481
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 2: got a great interview coming up after this, we'll sneak

482
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,400
Speaker 2: in a quick break. It's with my man Ian Bremer.

483
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: He is of course host of Eurasia Group, one of

484
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 2: the smartest and brightest political sciencests out there, but particularly

485
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: on the world stage. We go through all things Israel, Iran,

486
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 2: the United States, on that situation, update on Ukraine and Russia, uh,

487
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 2: and he has a fascinating take on the rise of

488
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 2: left wing populism and where where this Mom Dannie inspired

489
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 2: movement may be headed, and that this may be more

490
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 2: global than just what.

491
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: We're seeing in New York City.

492
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 2: So I'll sneak in the break, enjoy my conversation with

493
00:25:47,680 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 2: Ian Broker, and joining me now is Ian Bremer. Of

494
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: the Razor Group. How else do you like to describe

495
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 2: yourself these days? Friend of Chuck. I appreciate that you know,

496
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,159
Speaker 2: and give a quick primer. Your Raiser Group is what

497
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 2: I started twenty eight years ago. Back then it was

498
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 2: just me.

499
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 1: It's now two hundred and fifty people all over the world,

500
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 1: mostly political scientists, and we try to explain to companies

501
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,120
Speaker 1: and banks and actually now we have a little media

502
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 1: company too, just regular people how the world works. It's

503
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: sort of meant to be an analysis shop. No marketing,

504
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 1: no lobbying, right, no comms. It's just trying to help

505
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 1: everybody figure out what's happening in the world. Yeah.

506
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 2: How much do you do this with public data and

507
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: you get any access to proprietary data?

508
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 1: Well, I mean a lot of our own data is

509
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 1: proprietary in the sense that so much of what I

510
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: learn comes from our analysts. Where we have a morning

511
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: call every day at nine o'clock. If I'm not on it,

512
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: I have to listen to the to the tape because

513
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of like NFL train.

514
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 2: How many people are on that call? I mean, that's

515
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 2: probably a call that I would love to be on.

516
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: I mean more than half of the probably half of

517
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 1: the firm plus every day, and it's you know, it's

518
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: what the hell we think is out there that isn't

519
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: being covered or discussed adequately. So a lot of that.

520
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: And when I travel around, how many times best analysts

521
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: with me, right, who from those countries speak the languages,

522
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: all that kind of thing?

523
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: On your morning call, many time zones are represented that

524
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 2: and during that specific.

525
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 1: Call, most of them. Yeah, I figured to say pay

526
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: if I mean, like you know, Tokyo and Singapore offices.

527
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 1: You know, they're if they have something they have to say,

528
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: they're obviously on it. If they don't, most of them

529
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 1: will will listen to it later.

530
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 2: Right, Look, we've got it's been an incredible couple of weeks.

531
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 2: And you know, reading your weekly column, you call it

532
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 2: the e G Update, and I find it terrific. In

533
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 2: it it's very but it's amazing to me now and

534
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 2: I guess I shouldn't be amazed by this anymore. How

535
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 2: quickly we pivot away from what were gigantic momentous moments,

536
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 2: right the bombing of Iran by the United States, YadA, YadA, YadA.

537
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 2: Suddenly now Tom till Let's retires when we're talking about

538
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 2: one big, beautiful villain. This is just sort of already

539
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 2: in the back burner. And I know this isn't the

540
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 2: first time this has happened, particularly in the Trump era.

541
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: This is the definition of the Trump era, which is

542
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 2: we have these we have you know, every day there's

543
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,959
Speaker 2: something unprecedented that happens. So if it if every day

544
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 2: is unprecedented, is it unprecedented anymore?

545
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: How do you digest all of that? Filtering is really important?

546
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: The Russia War has been going on for three years.

547
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: It really matters the reality of a United States that

548
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: is no longer committed to its leadership and worldview. Is

549
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: a big structural chain, and that is something that we

550
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: continue to monitor every day because it's driving so much uncertainty.

551
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: But I mean, as much as people had their heads

552
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: blow off when the Americans started bombing Iran, that's not

553
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: a war and certainly wasn't intended to be a war,

554
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: And as long as the Iranians did not respond in

555
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: an escalatory way. You know, frankly, we've seen that novel

556
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: a few times. We saw it under Biden a couple times.

557
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 3: You remember when there was the back and forth between

558
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 3: Iran and Israel and Americans were involved, and both times

559
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 3: they were contained. We also saw it before in twenty

560
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 3: twenty when Trump was president, when Sulimani was assassinated. So,

561
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 3: you know, I understand that the news cycles make everything

562
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 3: into an eleven. And I think that part of my

563
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 3: job is really to understand what are the very small

564
00:29:55,840 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 3: number of things that are structural drivers of stuff. And

565
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 3: you know, I think that there are a bunch of them,

566
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 3: but they're they're frequently not headlines.

567
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: So about three weeks ago I had to sit down

568
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 2: with Steve Bannon, and you know, he is a proponent

569
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: of the war on the brink of World War three,

570
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 2: and he spoke.

571
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: With him today oddly, So that's kind of funny that

572
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: that is.

573
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: And he is somebody that that is. He is somebody

574
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: that is always interesting to check in with.

575
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 1: I know you do it.

576
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 2: I do it because we know he has certainly some

577
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 2: insight or at least some folks he talks to in

578
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: the White House.

579
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: Well, and he's smart, very smart. I'm very smart, you know, intellectually,

580
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 1: he's well read. He's thoughtful any strategic whether or not

581
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: you agree.

582
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 2: With him one hundred percent, and he really creates this

583
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: connective tissue between Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Israel, India, Pakistan, China, Taiwan,

584
00:30:52,800 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: do you I pushed back, So, first of all, and

585
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 2: you've heard, I know you've heard this rant from him before,

586
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 2: you know, and.

587
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: He does it publicly too, So I don't think I'm

588
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 1: saying anything out of school. But I mean, you know,

589
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: we had this interesting conversation of the Okay, I think

590
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: we've got Israel ninety contained right in terms of like

591
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: not going farther than we want to go. I mean,

592
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: you know, for the moment. Yeah, yeah, we're in charge.

593
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: Do you think we're in charge of this relationship right now? Yeah?

594
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: He he doesn't like the fact that the tail is

595
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: wagging the dog from his perspective. And by the way,

596
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: I have some sympathy to that concern. I have some

597
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: sympathy because Trump really wanted a negotiated settlement, and there

598
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: was a significant there was a non negligible chance that

599
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 1: he wasn't going to get that because the Israelis were

600
00:31:55,960 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: pushing so hard for a military interview mention. But uh,

601
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 1: you know, look Trump, Trump was fully capable of accepting

602
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: a deal that would have been not zero enrichment, but

603
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: would have been better than the old Obama deal because

604
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: it wouldn't have come with you know, a closing date,

605
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: a sell by date, an expery, and and Trump decided

606
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: not to accept that. So, I mean he could have

607
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: been a winner without the strikes, and and chose. You

608
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 1: think Israel was going to let him do that? Do

609
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: that though? Is that it? I mean, let it?

610
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: I say let him, I say let him here? Why

611
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 2: he because I feel like Isra Israel did not want

612
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 2: to see a deal before they were had a chance

613
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 2: to decreate, to do some degradation.

614
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: I agree with the program. So but you said that

615
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: is the permission that comes from Israel, Well that's my question.

616
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: I don't want to say permission. That's too strong a word.

617
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 2: But I look at it more as a bbe was

618
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 2: going to jam the United States, whether it was Trump's

619
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 2: president or Harris's president, and that this strike in Iran

620
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 2: was coming, and he was going to put the United

621
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: States in the uncomfortable position of, look, you know, we

622
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 2: can't do the big stuff. Are you really not going

623
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: to take this opportunity after we essentially clear the airspace,

624
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: we make this as free of a shot as you're

625
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: ever going to.

626
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: Have Look, this is a really important question, and I'm

627
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: glad you're asking it. No one has asked me this

628
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 1: question as directly as you just did, Jeff. And I

629
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: think that you are correct that that was the Israeli

630
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: Prime minister's intention. Yes, that's what I mean here. I

631
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 1: don't believe that the United States, but this is his intention.

632
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: But hold on a second. That doesn't mean that he

633
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: should get away with it. That doesn't mean that Trump

634
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: Sho're not advocating that. I'm not advocating that, I know.

635
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: But the point is I think that it was absolutely

636
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 1: in Trump's capacity to say no. Absolutely. I mean when

637
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 1: BB was invited to the White House the day after

638
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: Liberation Day, after all these tariffs came on, and when

639
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 1: Trump announced that he was going to start talking with

640
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: the Iranians. He's very capable of telling Israel, I'm suspending

641
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: if you think that you're going to go ahead with

642
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: military strikes, I am suspending AID, I am suspending intelligence sharing,

643
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: just like he did to Zelenski. Don't tell me that

644
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: Trump's incapable of doing that. Trump was capable of jettisoning

645
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: Elon Musk, who gave two hundred and fifty million dollars

646
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 1: right to his electoral campaign. He's capable of going after

647
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 1: every senator and saying, I will primary you. And you're

648
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,879
Speaker 1: telling me that the Israel lobby is stronger than that.

649
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 2: Boy, I don't think it's the lobby. I think he is.

650
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 2: I think it was. I think he literally had a

651
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 2: split group of advisors on this. Those are saying he

652
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 2: could have chosen to go. I don't disagree that that.

653
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 2: He couldn't have chosen to do that, but it would

654
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 2: have he would not have wanted. He would have been

655
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 2: afraid of looking like he missed a chance. I don't

656
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 2: buy that.

657
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 1: Again, I don't buy that Trump Trump is capable of

658
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: running over advisors every day, every morning, every night, that

659
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: Israel is somehow uniquely privileged in that regard, I don't buy.

660
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: I think that Trump has shown historically that this is

661
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 1: something that he actually wants to do, Like he wants

662
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 1: to recognize the goal on as part of Israel. He

663
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 1: wants to move the embassy to Jerusalem when every other

664
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: president has promised it but none of them have actually

665
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: done it. He has no problem with the idea that

666
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: you move Palestinians, even if they don't feel like leaving

667
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 1: from Gaza. He has no problem with illegally the Israelis

668
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: taking more settlements in the West Bank. I think that

669
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: is a revealed preference of Donald Trump.

670
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 2: Do you even think he's for a two state solution

671
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 2: or he would only be for one if he thought

672
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 2: it was part of a deal he needed.

673
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 1: A cut with the Saudis. I think he was in

674
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 1: favor of the two state solution in his first term,

675
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 1: and he thought that the plan that Jared and others

676
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 1: put together, that was presented at the conference in Bahrain

677
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 1: with a lot of support, and everybody showed up from

678
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 1: the Gulf, and there was money behind it, and that

679
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: was going to lead to the Saudis joining the Abraham Accords.

680
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 1: At that point, he favored a two state solution, which

681
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 1: was a lot better than what the Palestinians are looking

682
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 1: at right now. And I think he no longer is.

683
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 1: I think he understands that that ship is sale, that's

684
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: not worth the effort, and so he's not going to

685
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: support it. That's where I think he is now, to

686
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: go back to the Israeli decision making process.

687
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 2: You were pretty bullish this morning in your column about

688
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: BB's political standing that this didn't just sort of keep

689
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 2: the coalition together. And this was the question you didn't

690
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 2: answer in the column, which is why I want to

691
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 2: This would be my follow up to what you wrote.

692
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 2: Is he going to be able to win with a

693
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: different coalition or is he still going to be tied

694
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 2: as far to the right as he's been tied with

695
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: the coalition that he has. Is his goal with new

696
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 2: elections to try to recenter the coalition or not?

697
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 1: I'm not sure he's decided, but I think that if

698
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 1: he wants to go with another coalition that requires ending

699
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 1: the war in Gossip, and certainly Trump is going to

700
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: push him in that direction. He now has more political

701
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 1: space to do that. I mean, a lot of what

702
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 1: non Yahoo has been doing in the past year and

703
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 1: a half has been because he is politically behold into

704
00:37:56,120 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 1: these two extreme right parties that he requires for governing.

705
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: But now that he has defeated the Iranians in a

706
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: pretty dramatic fashion and taken very little blowback, and with

707
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: full support from the United States getting them involved, and

708
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 1: with very strong support from the Europeans as well, by

709
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 1: the way, and with very little opprobrium from the Gulf States.

710
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 1: I mean, some public studies done with Iran.

711
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 2: That the impression I got from your analysis here, like

712
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 2: there's a lot of people who were just who wouldn't

713
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 2: have supported this strike five years ago, are now like,

714
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 2: you know, Iran, enough is.

715
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: Enough, Enough is enough? Yeah, yeah, Ron has no friends

716
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 1: on the global stage. Even the Russians were not prepared

717
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: to do anything with or for them at the end

718
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 1: of the day. And the Russians, you know, have relied

719
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: on the Iranians substantially in drones and ammunition and the

720
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 1: rest for their war in Ukraine. So if anyone was

721
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: going to be out there, it would have been them.

722
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 1: Turned out, no biggie. But but so now that that

723
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: BB has has had that very substantial victory, something that

724
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: he has you know, sort of dreamt about for a

725
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 1: very long time, he certainly has the capacity to do

726
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 1: a deal on Gaza, sell out his own far right parties,

727
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 1: call an election in the fall and win well. And

728
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: isn't he well. I was gonna say, I don't know

729
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 1: if I don't know if you know, because I kind

730
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 1: of buried it. But I said one other thing in

731
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 1: my in my piece this morning, which is there are

732
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: a lot of opposition leaders in Israel that I've spoken

733
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: with that that that think that letting bb hold that

734
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 1: snap election, Yes, I was gonna that it is not

735
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,760
Speaker 1: a short thing for them because the next two years

736
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: he's going to be holding a poison chalice from their

737
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 1: perspective on two different months, right One is massive economic

738
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 1: austerity on the back of this war economy, and suddenly

739
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 1: you've got to pay for that, and that's going to

740
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: be a really challenging budget that they don't want to

741
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:17,399
Speaker 1: be responsible for. And secondly, if the once the war

742
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 1: on Gaza is over, suddenly you no longer can impose

743
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,439
Speaker 1: all of these restrictions on the journalists coming in. Right now,

744
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 1: you can only come in if you're part of an

745
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: official Israeli military you know, sort of a group, and

746
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: so you see very little and you're certainly not allowed

747
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: to do investigative reporting independently, you know, real journalism. But

748
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: once suddenly, you know, everyone from the world starts coming

749
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 1: into Gaza and seeing the Dresden type bombings that have

750
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 1: occurred and investigating all the war crimes, Israel is going

751
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 1: to look horrible. Yeah, global global you imagine global world

752
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 1: opinion is going to turn as bad as it is

753
00:40:58,360 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 1: right now for Israel. We're going to get that work

754
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: much worse because right now there's there are no stories

755
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 1: that are actually coming out, there's no real reporting, any

756
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 1: reporting that's coming out the Israeli government to say, well,

757
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 1: that's hearsay, that's blood liable, and I mean there's there's

758
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 1: not good information on the ground that's going to change.

759
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 1: So if you're the Israeli opposition, why don't you let

760
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 1: be beyond that interesting? And he's not getting any younger, right,

761
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 1: I mean, is in his seventies. Let him own it,

762
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 1: Let him have his two years and then and then

763
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 1: Israel can have a democracy like from a clean slate.

764
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 1: I think that that's uh, if you're thinking long term,

765
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 1: that's not stupid.

766
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 2: Is he in a position now where he gets recognition,

767
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 2: full recognition with Saudi without a two state solution.

768
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 1: No, not at all.

769
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 2: You really think NBA NBS has drawn that line.

770
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,760
Speaker 1: I do. I mean I don't know MBS, but certainly

771
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: I know his foreign minister well, and and he's made

772
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 1: that very clear.

773
00:41:56,640 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 2: And h they have domestic problems if they moved on

774
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:01,240
Speaker 2: that with that.

775
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:05,879
Speaker 1: Creates and he's so extraordinarily popular among these they used

776
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:06,760
Speaker 1: to be why.

777
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 2: They used to like they were always There's always was

778
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 2: this illusion in the sort of the last generation of

779
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 2: Saudi leadership that they were always quietly worried about, you know,

780
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 2: essentially a version of the Muslim Brotherhood rising up.

781
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 1: Right. I think there's still truth to that concern. I

782
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,399
Speaker 1: just think the MBS could certainly weather it's given how

783
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 1: much he's managed to do in the kingdom.

784
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:35,439
Speaker 4: Just the economic just the economic growth is not just social, right,

785
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 4: I mean, how he has defenestrated the religious police and

786
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 4: their authority domestically right.

787
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: Cultural, I mean, so much as he Saudi Arabia is

788
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:48,720
Speaker 1: actually a pretty vibrant trajectory. I mean, it's still not Western,

789
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 1: it's not open, but it's nothing It's nothing like what

790
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 1: you saw before. No. I mean the issue is that

791
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 1: they've just decided that they're doing deals directly with the

792
00:42:56,520 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 1: US and that they're going to work that front military relationship,

793
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 1: close to technological relationship, more investments, you know, get approvals

794
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,800
Speaker 1: for nuclear enrichment with inspectors. That's what they're working towards

795
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 1: right now. And they basically said, ah, we're not this

796
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: is not the time to open with Israel.

797
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 2: Let's talk about Iran. What kind of paper tiger, did

798
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 2: we expose and at Israel exposed? Are they sure? But

799
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 2: not just now. I think that we've known that for

800
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 2: a while now. We we should have known that at

801
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 2: the end of Trump one point zero, when you take

802
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 2: out it's not just that this guy Sulimani was the

803
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 2: head of the Iranian defense forces, it's also that he

804
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: was a war hero. He was massively more popular than

805
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 2: the Supreme Leader or than the president. And so unlike

806
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 2: strikes on an underground nuclear base which you know no

807
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: one has any visibility on, you can't sweep under the rug,

808
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 2: they just killed this guy, right the lion. And yet

809
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 2: the Iranian reaction against the US was functionally nothing. So

810
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 2: that that already told you something.

811
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: And you know, when hesblah gets destroyed, that tells you

812
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: something more, and when a side falls, that tells you

813
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: something more. I mean, we've just been We've seen this

814
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 1: play over and over again. So I think that by

815
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: the time Trump decided that he was going to go

816
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 1: in with this spectacular thirty six hour B two missions,

817
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 1: he understood that as long as that was it, and

818
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 1: he was opposing an effort at you know, regime change

819
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 1: from above, from the top which wouldn't have worked in

820
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: any case, that there was very unlikely to be escalation

821
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 1: from the Iranians, and the fact that he was able

822
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: to pull that off, not one American servicemen or woman

823
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 1: even wounded, is astonishing. The fact that you had one

824
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 1: of the world's largest oil producers attack one of the

825
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: world's largest gas producers with missiles flying, and the oil

826
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: price went down dramatically on the back of that. I mean,

827
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 1: if that doesn't say paper tiger in or run, I

828
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: don't know what does.

829
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 4: Right.

830
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 2: You used an interesting percentage split in your piece about

831
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 2: the amount of support the regime has in Irun. You

832
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:34,720
Speaker 2: estimated twenty percent support. That's it, huh, And twenty percent

833
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: is enough to keep them in power.

834
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 1: Well, twenty percent of hard support, like they will. They're

835
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 1: in favor kind of no matter what, as long as

836
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 1: the regime that's there. Like, actually, this is what they want,

837
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 1: This is their revealed preference. These are the people they

838
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 1: want to win, you know. But that's very different from

839
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 1: how many people would actually rise up against given how

840
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 1: well trained and funded the Iranian domestic police internal police

841
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:10,800
Speaker 1: security services are. This is not a SODS.

842
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: Syria, and they have show should we be so sure

843
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 2: sure of that. I only say that because, I mean,

844
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 2: I know we've got somebody.

845
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 1: They've displayed it, They've displayed it on many occasions in

846
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 1: the past, given their weakness around in the region and

847
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 1: what they've seen against outside foes.

848
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 2: Does that at all you think that all gives comfort

849
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:29,719
Speaker 2: to those that are may want to.

850
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,399
Speaker 1: Try a violent uprising. I think that there's a very

851
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 1: big difference between Iran's lack of capacity against the world's

852
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 1: most sophisticated, technologically sophisticated militaries and I mean, you know,

853
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 1: and a bunch of people on the ground now, and

854
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 1: they're willing to do They're willing to do things to

855
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: their people that most nations are not. I mean, you know,

856
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 1: if you told me that the US and Israel were

857
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: you know, we're focused on trying to help the Iranian

858
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 1: people directly through intelligence and surveillance and you know, targeted

859
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 1: assassinations and the rest. We could have a different conversation

860
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 1: that could also go very very badly, right, I mean,

861
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 1: and nobody in the Trump administration wants to take on

862
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 1: that risk.

863
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it was I think it's just it's just

864
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 2: John Boltman, It's just John Boltman.

865
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 1: I mean, Bannon is certainly making the argument that that,

866
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 1: you know, what Israel wanted and what many in the

867
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:36,280
Speaker 1: administration would have supported would have been boots on the ground,

868
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 1: American boots on the ground. And I'm like, that's crazy.

869
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 2: What Americans would have really, what serious advisors to the

870
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 2: president would have advised boots.

871
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 1: I don't see it. I think it's me that's inconceivable.

872
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 1: I think that's creating a bogeyman that doesn't exist. So

873
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 1: I didn't see that. But you know, again, he's He's

874
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 1: the one that's in there every day, and I'm not so.

875
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it's it's it's an interesting perspective.

876
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 1: I would be. I'd be stunned. I mean, after everything,

877
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:10,359
Speaker 1: Trump did, you know, even against American interest, to cut

878
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 1: a deal with the Taliban, to just get the hell out,

879
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 1: just stop the loss, right, I mean, twenty years of fighting,

880
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:19,359
Speaker 1: trillions of dollars, just any we don't care, just get

881
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 1: us out. And and that's that's a consistent position that

882
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:26,280
Speaker 1: Trump is held. I don't care what his advisors are saying.

883
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 1: I think Trump is capable of saying screw you to

884
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: his advisors. I have no doubt that there are probably

885
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 1: a few people that were saying, hey, this is our

886
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: chance to actually know look exactly. I mean, they've never

887
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: been this week. It is.

888
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: You could sit there and and you can fantasize about

889
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: what can look good, and we all know what happens. Uh,

890
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 2: the reality on the ground becomes a different situation. But yeah,

891
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 2: how does how does the how does the regime in

892
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,320
Speaker 2: Iran get out of this corner that they're in?

893
00:48:57,080 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 1: I mean, they're still they survive. I beg for it.

894
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 1: They survived, and I mean the Americans don't want to

895
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: engage in more strikes. And it's very useful for Trump

896
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:10,439
Speaker 1: to say this was a spectacular victory and we blew

897
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: up because he doesn't want to have to go back, right.

898
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: I mean that's and so if you're Iran, that gives

899
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: you a lot more you know, capacity. If your nuclear

900
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 1: program has been blown up for years, then well, I mean,

901
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:26,399
Speaker 1: what is the urgency? What what should we believe the years?

902
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 1: Is it months?

903
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 2: Is it a little bit of both, depending on what

904
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 2: your definition of a nuclear program as well.

905
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 1: I mean the Iranians have all have been have been

906
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: months away from nuclear capability for a long time because

907
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 1: the constraint has not been technological, it's been political. It's

908
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:49,280
Speaker 1: been their unwillingness to take steps towards that ninety percent

909
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 1: enrichment and then weaponizing that uranium, which would have made

910
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 1: clear to the rest of the world that they're actually

911
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:01,280
Speaker 1: that they're breaking that threshold to be a nuclear power,

912
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 1: and that would have precipitated strikes. So that's always been

913
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: the point, and they weren't willing to do that. They

914
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 1: weren't willing to do that ten years ago or five

915
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 1: years ago. They sped up. They got closer once Trump

916
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 1: left the Iranian nuclear Deal, the JCPOA under Obama. And

917
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 1: of course that's one of the great ironies of all

918
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:22,439
Speaker 1: of this is that he kind of caused his own

919
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:24,280
Speaker 1: problem to a degree.

920
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 2: Well, this is what critics said at the time, if

921
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 2: you get out of this deal, you're going to be

922
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: bombing the facilities at some point. So it turned out

923
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,359
Speaker 2: that's okay. Turned out that's as far as right, and

924
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 2: that it might have been as effective.

925
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I would argue it's less effective, but nonetheless

926
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 1: it's Trump. Trump will certainly take it now.

927
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 2: I think, well, my concern about why it's less I'm

928
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:49,280
Speaker 2: curious why you think it's less effective.

929
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 1: My hot take would simply be.

930
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 2: Than any other country Trump that is on the fence

931
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 2: about going nuclear or not. If I look at what

932
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 2: happened here, and I look at North Korea and I

933
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:06,640
Speaker 2: look at Libya, I would race to get a bomb

934
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 2: as fast as I could to protect myself.

935
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think you needed the last couple of

936
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 1: weeks to come to that conclusion. As you say, I

937
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 1: think Kadafi dead would have you know.

938
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,479
Speaker 2: I'm surprised Iran didn't see this and why they didn't

939
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 2: go sooner. I mean that turned they did.

940
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 1: See it, and I think they recognized that it was

941
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 1: not going to go well for them, right, So they

942
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 1: don't really have That's why I think that they were willing.

943
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:31,560
Speaker 1: I think that the fact that Iran has proven to

944
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 1: be such a paper tiger geo politically in every way,

945
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 1: in every way, created two options for Trump. It meant

946
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: that he was more capable of getting a better deal

947
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 1: out of the Iranians number one, and it also meant

948
00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 1: he was capable of taking the military option with far

949
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,719
Speaker 1: less risk number two. He decided to go for a

950
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 1: box number two. Curtain number two and number one, by

951
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,319
Speaker 1: the way, is still available to him, So you know,

952
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:04,320
Speaker 1: he hasn't actually given up anything, he hasn't lost any leverage.

953
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:08,720
Speaker 1: I think that the Iranians are probably three years away

954
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 1: now from nuclear weapons capability. And it's not because of

955
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:18,919
Speaker 1: the centrifuges. It's not because of the enriched uranium. It's

956
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 1: specifically the uranium conversion plant that was in Isfahan that

957
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 1: was destroyed by the Israelis. It took them seven years

958
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 1: to build. They need another one to weaponize it. They

959
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,360
Speaker 1: will have to build it in a hardened facility from scratch.

960
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 1: Best estimate that I've been able to get from people

961
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 1: that know this and I am not that person is

962
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 1: about three years. So and that's assuming. I mean, you know,

963
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 1: other things have to go. Well, they have to have

964
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 1: nuclear scientists that are willing to work on this stuff,

965
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 1: and that's become harder all this other stuff.

966
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: So we have a habit sometimes in the West in general,

967
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 2: in the United States in particular, of assuming our adversaries

968
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,959
Speaker 2: or idiots sometimes that we sort of underestimate them.

969
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:05,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, where could we be underestimating the Iranians? I think

970
00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 1: that where I've seen the biggest misattributions has been the

971
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 1: assumption that because they are a theocracy. That means that

972
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:20,399
Speaker 1: they act irrationally, but that means that they can be suicidal,

973
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:24,440
Speaker 1: and I haven't seen that from this Iranian regime at all.

974
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 1: I've actually seen that of the three belligerents in this conflict,

975
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:32,399
Speaker 1: the Iranians have consistently been the most restrained, the most

976
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 1: risk averse. That wasn't true five ten years ago, it

977
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 1: is true now. So now if where we could be

978
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 1: getting it wrong is if the Iranian leadership military leadership

979
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 1: is either was or becomes so damaged their own command

980
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:55,840
Speaker 1: and control structures start falling apart. So, for example, Trump,

981
00:53:56,160 --> 00:54:00,160
Speaker 1: it looks like did try to do another piece of

982
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 1: outreach before he engaged in bombing to the Supreme Leader,

983
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 1: which the Supreme Leader was incapable of responding to because

984
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 1: he was in hiding, he was in a bunker, they

985
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:14,720
Speaker 1: didn't have effective communications, and they had shut down their internet. Now,

986
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 1: if you imagine that sort of thing happening within the

987
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 1: military leadership, and therefore you start to see rogue behavior

988
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:28,479
Speaker 1: from a smaller number of military leaders taking matters into

989
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: their own hands, well, then suddenly the Iranians no longer

990
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:41,720
Speaker 1: seem so rational and unitary that creates a lot more danger.

991
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 2: Hey, what's the you know, Aronzoi's had a bit of

992
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 2: obviously a lot of influence in a Rock.

993
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 1: How would you describe the state of a Rock's leadership

994
00:54:55,000 --> 00:55:04,279
Speaker 1: these days? Is reasonably well respected and you know, internationally

995
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 1: people are prepared to engage with them diplomatically, economically, you know,

996
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 1: I mean all the multilaterals, all that kind of thing.

997
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 1: But lacking full control of their territory and of their population,

998
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:24,839
Speaker 1: big problems with the Kurds and ongoing challenging negotiations as

999
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 1: the disposition of oil resource and and cash that comes

1000
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 1: out of it, big challenges with Shia militias that the

1001
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 1: Iranians have a lot of direct influence over and have

1002
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 1: provided funding for. And certainly when Trump was getting briefed

1003
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 1: in the week before he greenlit the American strikes, the

1004
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 1: thing that he was most concerned about was the inability

1005
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 1: of the Americans to protect their troops in Iraq from

1006
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: she U militias. That if the Iranians had decided to

1007
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 1: give them the go ahead, and they have a lot

1008
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 1: more control influence there than they do over the Houthis

1009
00:56:07,719 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 1: and Yemen, that American servicemen and women were going to

1010
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 1: be killed and Trump. Trump was not comfortable with what

1011
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 1: he heard from his briefers at all on that front.

1012
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 2: I mean, it is that instability why you just don't

1013
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 2: see any global invest what's the level of global investment

1014
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:25,839
Speaker 2: into a rock?

1015
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 1: Is it just not a place yet you know that

1016
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 1: that speculators are ready to go? I mean, is it

1017
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 1: just There's definitely been private equity deals that have been

1018
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 1: done on the ground, there's infrastructure being built, There's been

1019
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 1: some wraps. I've seen some real estate deals. I know

1020
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 1: the Turks are in there for example. There absolutely there's money,

1021
00:56:44,600 --> 00:56:46,840
Speaker 1: but it's not it's not like this is a place

1022
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 1: that's you know, about to about to explode as you know,

1023
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 1: as a new hotspot destination. It's not. Oh, I get that,

1024
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I get that, but we're ways away.

1025
00:56:58,400 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 1: I think I think we're ways away because the place

1026
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 1: has you know, you got rid of the infrastructure that

1027
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: worked very brutal, very oppressive, nonetheless kept the play stable,

1028
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 1: and now you have, you know, an enormous you have

1029
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 1: a very decentralized, very regional structure that the tectonic plates

1030
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: are bashing up against each other continually. Let's shift to NATO.

1031
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 2: How much did NATO benefit from the fact that the

1032
00:57:25,160 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 2: president was feeling so good about Iran that he decided

1033
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 2: not to do what he has done at previous NATO

1034
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 2: meetings and sort of bully the place, create problems, you know,

1035
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 2: pick fights sometimes to just pick fights, you know. He

1036
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:43,640
Speaker 2: didn't do any of that. He really sort of just

1037
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 2: let everybody kiss his ass. He loved it, and they

1038
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 2: all pivoted. And I get that it was a quote

1039
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 2: victory for him, but why does it feel puic.

1040
00:57:55,840 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 1: I think that. I mean, Iran obviously didn't hurt. He

1041
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 1: came in in a good mood and he had a win.

1042
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:05,240
Speaker 1: But NATO was structured to be a win before Iran happened,

1043
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 1: and it was going to be a win, and it

1044
00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:10,200
Speaker 1: was going to be a win for a few reasons. First,

1045
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 1: and perhaps most importantly, the fact that Trump failed miserably

1046
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:19,160
Speaker 1: to get a ceasefire out of Putin, and he was

1047
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 1: surprised by that. He, like Biden, was incapable. Wasn't even

1048
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 1: willing to pick up the phone, wasn't going to engage

1049
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 1: the sanctions, accomplish nothing. I'm willing to actually cut a deal.

1050
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 1: He had a couple of good phone calls a couple

1051
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 1: hours long. He thought he was going to get something

1052
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 1: out of Putin. He offered him a lot. He offered

1053
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 1: to like take the sanctions off, and he was going

1054
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 1: to do it over the heads of his own allies

1055
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:45,240
Speaker 1: in Europe, right, and Putin said no. I think that

1056
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 1: was a mistake for Putin. We can talk about why

1057
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:50,920
Speaker 1: he said no, but the fact is didn't happen, and

1058
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 1: Trump is now angry at Putin. He's angry his own advisors,

1059
00:58:56,120 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 1: and he's angry at Putin, and that completely changed the ballgame. Plus,

1060
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 1: the Europeans are spending enormous amounts of money on the defense.

1061
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 2: Well they have to because they don't trust us. I mean,

1062
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:13,400
Speaker 2: isn't that the real motivation for why they increased their spending.

1063
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 2: This isn't because this great leadership with Donald Trump. It's

1064
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 2: more of the hey, they may leave us, so we

1065
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 2: better be It's almost like a spouse going, you know,

1066
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 2: I better pack a savings account because I don't know

1067
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 2: if my spouse is not going to leave me again,

1068
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:29,800
Speaker 2: type of mindset.

1069
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 1: Accept of course, there's something there's a fair amount of that,

1070
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 1: But there's also the fact that the Europeans have not

1071
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 1: actually invested in their own defense for decades to an

1072
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 1: embarrassing and dangerous degree. And you know, frankly, they weren't

1073
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 1: doing that under Obama. They weren't doing that under Biden.

1074
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 1: Very capable atlant assist leaders that you know, had great

1075
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:59,840
Speaker 1: relations with a lot of the Europeans, but were unwilling

1076
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 1: to push or.

1077
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:05,280
Speaker 2: Else well and want I mean, but let me not

1078
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 2: everybody it wants to see. I mean, there were aren't

1079
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 2: there some in the United States that advocate that no, no, no, no,

1080
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:16,240
Speaker 2: we we should, we should be The bigger part of

1081
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 2: this umbrella that there wasn't an interest in seeing certain

1082
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 2: countries re arm the two percent, you know, sort of

1083
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 2: target well before the Russians invaded Ukraine was something that

1084
01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 2: the Europeans were giving lip service to every American president

1085
01:00:35,040 --> 01:00:35,800
Speaker 2: wanted them to do.

1086
01:00:36,160 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 1: They weren't doing it. The Germans are showing up in

1087
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 1: training operations. They don't have like actual ammunition, they can't

1088
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:45,720
Speaker 1: do live firing, they don't have rifles. In some cases

1089
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 1: they're actually using like cardboard cutouts. I mean, wouldn't cutouts.

1090
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 1: I mean this was I understand that you don't want

1091
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 1: the Europeans becoming dominant there was no danger of that, right,

1092
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:01,959
Speaker 1: and this was a really serious album. So I think

1093
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 1: that Trump. Actually I criticized Trump all the time, and

1094
01:01:06,840 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 1: I'm sure you know that, and he is far from

1095
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 1: what I would consider an ideal president, particularly on the

1096
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 1: global stage. And I think we've made a lot of

1097
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 1: mistakes with allies around the world picking unnecessary fights. But

1098
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 1: pushing the Europeans to spend far more is not one

1099
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:29,520
Speaker 1: of the unnecessary fights. And that the fact that they

1100
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 1: are now, with the exception of the Spaniards who got

1101
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 1: an exception, and they're not exactly you know, close to

1102
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 1: the front lines. Five percent target, three point five percent

1103
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 1: direct defense, one point five on infrastructure. The fact that

1104
01:01:44,320 --> 01:01:46,920
Speaker 1: the Germans are going to double their defense spending by

1105
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:52,400
Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven is astonishing and it's going to take

1106
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 1: them ten fifteen years before they're able to really stand

1107
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:58,560
Speaker 1: up without American strategic enablers. But this is making the

1108
01:01:58,680 --> 01:02:02,680
Speaker 1: NATO Alliance stronger, this is giving Ukraine a chance, this

1109
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 1: is pushing back against the Russians.

1110
01:02:04,680 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 2: Those are really important things. So where are we then

1111
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:12,680
Speaker 2: in the war between Ukraine and Russia. And if Trump,

1112
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 2: we assume he still wants to deal that, if Putin

1113
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:18,360
Speaker 2: picks up the phone and says he wants to deal.

1114
01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 2: Trump's going to be the first person to negotiate. I

1115
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 2: think that's right. I think that's right. But I don't

1116
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 2: see Putin expressing that willingness. I think Putin still believes

1117
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 2: that ultimately he will win because everyone else will get exhausted,

1118
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 2: and first and foremost the Ukrainians, who have a much

1119
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:41,960
Speaker 2: smaller fighting force and are having a much harder time

1120
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 2: drafting people into the war, and that ultimately they are

1121
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:51,080
Speaker 2: The Ukrainians are losing.

1122
01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 1: Territory every day right now, Chuck. They're not losing a

1123
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 1: lot of territory. It's incremental, it's hard fought. And over

1124
01:02:57,280 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 1: a million Russian soldiers have been our casualties, so wounded,

1125
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 1: are dead. I mean, just think about what that number around.

1126
01:03:05,360 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 1: And it hasn't it hasn't stopped them. But the Ukrainians

1127
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:12,320
Speaker 1: are lose it. And Putin believes that in another six months,

1128
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 1: another twelve months, another eighteen months, more and more territory

1129
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:17,800
Speaker 1: will be his territory that he has now annexed, that

1130
01:03:17,880 --> 01:03:21,240
Speaker 1: he has decided he has announced as his belongs to Russia,

1131
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:24,920
Speaker 1: and that he's going to make these guys super piece

1132
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:28,440
Speaker 1: from a much weaker position. That is where Putin believes

1133
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:31,320
Speaker 1: we are going. And that is why it is so

1134
01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 1: essential that the Europeans can show strength, because I don't

1135
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 1: think it's good for this war to keep going. I

1136
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:44,120
Speaker 1: think the Ukrainians need to negotiate, but they need to

1137
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 1: negotiate when it is clear that the Americans and Europeans

1138
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:50,520
Speaker 1: are going to keep backing them up. And that's when

1139
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:52,760
Speaker 1: you want them to come and say, Okay, we want

1140
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,560
Speaker 1: to end this war. And that ending the war right

1141
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 1: now means that you're not I mean the territory is

1142
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 1: the territory to link up in Russia.

1143
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 2: One of the fears I've had is that what Putin

1144
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 2: wants to prove is that the NATO alliance that Article

1145
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:12,680
Speaker 2: five is bullshit, at least as far as Trump is concerned.

1146
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 2: And in order to prove it, tanks, would you know,

1147
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 2: he invade Estonia or invade Lite area, you know, one

1148
01:04:19,920 --> 01:04:20,600
Speaker 2: of the Baltics?

1149
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:23,880
Speaker 1: Where do you put that?

1150
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:27,919
Speaker 2: You sometimes rank your levels of concern hotspots, where would

1151
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 2: you put a concern like that? And would Putin loved

1152
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 2: to demonstrate to European members of NATO that not all

1153
01:04:37,480 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 2: NATO nations are going to be treated equally by the

1154
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,440
Speaker 2: United States, and Article five is very subjective.

1155
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:48,960
Speaker 1: Sure he would, but in the range of things that

1156
01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:51,320
Speaker 1: Putin is trying to accomplish in the near term that

1157
01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 1: is not high. Ukraine matters, and it matters a lot

1158
01:04:57,120 --> 01:05:02,200
Speaker 1: to him. He doesn't want to give NATO other reasons

1159
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:08,120
Speaker 1: to be fighting. He wants to exhaust the Ukrainians and

1160
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 1: make NATO recognize that they're spending all this money on

1161
01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:16,680
Speaker 1: a non NATO country that they're never getting back, right,

1162
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 1: it's and that's that. Look, I think that there are

1163
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 1: a few things to really worry about. One, you saw

1164
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:29,919
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians, you know, were very successful in taking three

1165
01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:33,440
Speaker 1: hundred dollar drones and taking out one hundred million dollar

1166
01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:38,880
Speaker 1: jet fighters and bombers. That's a pretty impressive return on investment.

1167
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:42,040
Speaker 2: What every superpower should start to be worried about asymmetrical

1168
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:42,960
Speaker 2: attacks like that, By the.

1169
01:05:42,920 --> 01:05:45,960
Speaker 1: Way, I agree, But if you are, you're particularly worried

1170
01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 1: about it from a Ukraine which has technological capacity and

1171
01:05:52,400 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 1: a war economy and is fighting for survival, right and

1172
01:05:56,120 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 1: it's a real country, So you know what happens That

1173
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:02,400
Speaker 1: clearly isn't the only thing they can do. What if

1174
01:06:02,440 --> 01:06:05,440
Speaker 1: they start what if they start going after you know,

1175
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 1: Putin's family members, What if they start going after olive archs,

1176
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:11,120
Speaker 1: What if they start assassinating you know, sort of ministers,

1177
01:06:11,320 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 1: Like what if this starts becoming much more real for

1178
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:17,560
Speaker 1: Putin that his own survival is a question, which it

1179
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 1: is not for him right now. What would Putin do

1180
01:06:21,400 --> 01:06:24,320
Speaker 1: in that environment? Like would would Putin use a tactical

1181
01:06:24,400 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 1: nuke if if he thought that his own regime was

1182
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:30,600
Speaker 1: at stake from Ukraine? Of course he would, right, So,

1183
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:34,320
Speaker 1: I mean there's a real risk around that. That's a

1184
01:06:34,520 --> 01:06:37,800
Speaker 1: that's a danger unfettered escalation. It's not a World War

1185
01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:40,840
Speaker 1: three danger, but it's a real danger. And I think

1186
01:06:40,880 --> 01:06:44,880
Speaker 1: there's also a danger around the asymmetric attacks that Russia

1187
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:48,680
Speaker 1: is doing, the espionage and the target assassinations, the criminality,

1188
01:06:48,720 --> 01:06:54,280
Speaker 1: the cyber attacks going after fiber networks and pipelines. I mean,

1189
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:59,400
Speaker 1: these are not this isn't tanks rolling into Poland or

1190
01:06:59,480 --> 01:07:03,120
Speaker 1: into or into the Baltics, but it is the kind

1191
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:10,200
Speaker 1: of thing that could escalate inadvertently and suddenly you are

1192
01:07:10,240 --> 01:07:13,440
Speaker 1: in an environment where NATO has to make decisions about

1193
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 1: how much they're willing to respond directly against Russia. When

1194
01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 1: the North Koreans sent in fifteen thousand troops, Biden ordered

1195
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 1: direct connection with the Russians to say that if those

1196
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:35,440
Speaker 1: troops go into Ukraine, foreign food troops into Ukraine, we

1197
01:07:35,560 --> 01:07:39,360
Speaker 1: will support foreign troops in Ukraine fighting against them. And

1198
01:07:39,400 --> 01:07:41,040
Speaker 1: that wasn't going to be Americans, but it would have

1199
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:44,720
Speaker 1: been polls, it would have been whatever. And that's a

1200
01:07:44,760 --> 01:07:48,760
Speaker 1: massive escalation. And Putin decided that he was only going

1201
01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:52,200
Speaker 1: to send those troops into Kirsk to fight against the

1202
01:07:52,280 --> 01:07:55,880
Speaker 1: Ukrainians in Russian territory, and that was a that was

1203
01:07:55,920 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 1: a meaningful climb down for something that's pretty dangerous. I mean,

1204
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:02,040
Speaker 1: the point is, you don't you don't have to go

1205
01:08:02,200 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 1: to scenarios of tanks into NATO countries before you're talking

1206
01:08:08,440 --> 01:08:11,280
Speaker 1: about some very dangerous stuff. You know, three and a

1207
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 1: half years into this war.

1208
01:08:14,320 --> 01:08:17,920
Speaker 2: Let's close with your thoughts on left wing populism and

1209
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:21,519
Speaker 2: the rise of left wing populism, and you know, I

1210
01:08:21,520 --> 01:08:23,080
Speaker 2: think some of the one of the things that I

1211
01:08:23,080 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 2: think we in the United States had the hardest time

1212
01:08:25,880 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 2: is looking at ourselves sort of without without personalizing it, right,

1213
01:08:33,080 --> 01:08:36,639
Speaker 2: what would this look like if we were Columbia going

1214
01:08:36,680 --> 01:08:39,799
Speaker 2: from a hard right move and the rise of a hard.

1215
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:41,799
Speaker 1: Left right like a Mexico.

1216
01:08:42,040 --> 01:08:44,360
Speaker 2: I can go through different examples where we've seen this

1217
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:48,800
Speaker 2: in other countries, and we're always a little bit surprised

1218
01:08:49,080 --> 01:08:52,920
Speaker 2: when it happens in our own country.

1219
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:53,799
Speaker 1: Where do we.

1220
01:08:53,760 --> 01:08:56,960
Speaker 2: Fit a pattern that you've seen before, and where don't

1221
01:08:57,000 --> 01:08:57,920
Speaker 2: we fit that pattern?

1222
01:08:59,400 --> 01:09:03,200
Speaker 1: Uh? I think the thing that worries me in terms

1223
01:09:03,280 --> 01:09:07,479
Speaker 1: of the trajectory of US politics. It's interesting that you

1224
01:09:07,560 --> 01:09:12,240
Speaker 1: mentioned Columbia because I do think about the Latin americanization

1225
01:09:12,400 --> 01:09:13,160
Speaker 1: of politics.

1226
01:09:13,400 --> 01:09:15,479
Speaker 2: If you start to what it's funny you say, I'm

1227
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:16,840
Speaker 2: obsessed with this, but yeah, go.

1228
01:09:17,320 --> 01:09:19,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, no. If you move to far left and far

1229
01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:24,040
Speaker 1: right and you undermine rule of law, then you create

1230
01:09:24,120 --> 01:09:27,639
Speaker 1: this situation where the people that are around the power

1231
01:09:28,760 --> 01:09:32,439
Speaker 1: have everything to lose in an election. And when I

1232
01:09:32,479 --> 01:09:35,040
Speaker 1: say everything, I don't just mean like, you know, their

1233
01:09:35,080 --> 01:09:38,000
Speaker 1: ability to keep making money. I mean they end up

1234
01:09:38,000 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 1: in jail.

1235
01:09:38,800 --> 01:09:41,759
Speaker 2: Well, let me there's a country out there that's fairly

1236
01:09:41,880 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 2: large where they've had back to back presidents essentially faced

1237
01:09:45,400 --> 01:09:46,759
Speaker 2: jail time. That's Brazil.

1238
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 1: Brazil, yep, absolutely, and are left and far right, are

1239
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:55,639
Speaker 1: left and far right and you know, I think that

1240
01:09:55,640 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 1: that's something that we could start seeing in the United

1241
01:09:59,520 --> 01:10:03,560
Speaker 1: States after twenty twenty nine. I think we're going to

1242
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:06,040
Speaker 1: have elections. I'm not worried about that. I think they'll

1243
01:10:06,080 --> 01:10:08,879
Speaker 1: still be free and fair, though they won't be perceived

1244
01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:11,640
Speaker 1: as free and fair by the population. But that's a

1245
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:12,240
Speaker 1: bigger problem.

1246
01:10:12,280 --> 01:10:15,320
Speaker 2: I mean, we're what we've been on that almost I

1247
01:10:15,360 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 2: could argue there's only been two of our last five

1248
01:10:17,600 --> 01:10:20,360
Speaker 2: elections that there weren't complaints that they weren't fan fair.

1249
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:25,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean though four four, sixteen, twenty and twenty four,

1250
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 1: all four have had what I would call people that

1251
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:33,920
Speaker 1: I would thought were responsible claiming, you know, things that

1252
01:10:33,960 --> 01:10:38,360
Speaker 1: were nefarious right, completely agree, completely agree, And so I

1253
01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:40,679
Speaker 1: think that is a real worry. I don't think there's

1254
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:42,880
Speaker 1: any chance that Trump is going to run a third term.

1255
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:45,880
Speaker 1: I don't think that that's allowed. I don't think he's

1256
01:10:45,880 --> 01:10:48,760
Speaker 1: going to try to break that, and I think that

1257
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:51,519
Speaker 1: there'll be a real election. But I also do worry

1258
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:55,720
Speaker 1: that we're heading into this environment where you know, it's

1259
01:10:55,760 --> 01:11:00,400
Speaker 1: becoming maximal winner take all. It's not just an absence

1260
01:11:00,439 --> 01:11:05,160
Speaker 1: of bipartisanship, it's that you know, the enemy should be

1261
01:11:05,439 --> 01:11:09,640
Speaker 1: investigated and sent into jail. And you're weaponizing you know,

1262
01:11:09,760 --> 01:11:12,720
Speaker 1: the d O J, the I R S, the FBI,

1263
01:11:13,640 --> 01:11:16,800
Speaker 1: the media. Right, I mean, these are these are dangerous

1264
01:11:17,360 --> 01:11:20,280
Speaker 1: things to do. It doesn't make you an authoritarian state,

1265
01:11:20,320 --> 01:11:23,639
Speaker 1: but it does make you kleptocratic. And I I do

1266
01:11:23,880 --> 01:11:27,640
Speaker 1: worry that we're going to crise of left wing populism

1267
01:11:28,040 --> 01:11:31,440
Speaker 1: that has the potential be every bit as as difficult

1268
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:33,479
Speaker 1: in that regard to deal with as the rise of

1269
01:11:33,479 --> 01:11:34,600
Speaker 1: white wing copulism.

1270
01:11:34,840 --> 01:11:36,760
Speaker 2: This has been my great fear that a second Trump

1271
01:11:36,880 --> 01:11:39,479
Speaker 2: term was going to move folks on the left to see,

1272
01:11:39,479 --> 01:11:41,120
Speaker 2: if you can't beat them, join them. We're going to

1273
01:11:41,240 --> 01:11:44,240
Speaker 2: use the same tactics we're going to You've created these precedents.

1274
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:46,000
Speaker 1: This is what we're going to do. Sure, Bannon, talk

1275
01:11:46,000 --> 01:11:46,519
Speaker 1: to you about that.

1276
01:11:47,160 --> 01:11:49,840
Speaker 2: Oh, we've we've Yeah, we've we've had We've had that.

1277
01:11:49,920 --> 01:11:52,559
Speaker 2: We had a pretty deep discussion on that. But I

1278
01:11:52,760 --> 01:11:54,519
Speaker 2: you know, I was thinking about this. You know, right

1279
01:11:54,520 --> 01:11:58,120
Speaker 2: after Nixon, if you really think about all of the

1280
01:11:58,280 --> 01:12:01,720
Speaker 2: norms that we have been frustrated by, or you know,

1281
01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:03,720
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is erased this and he raised that and

1282
01:12:03,720 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 2: the spector generals are gone and we don't have this,

1283
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:08,519
Speaker 2: and we don't have that. Well, you know, it really

1284
01:12:08,640 --> 01:12:10,599
Speaker 2: was only about a fifty year period that we did

1285
01:12:10,600 --> 01:12:13,439
Speaker 2: have it, right. You know, Nixon happened, and there was

1286
01:12:13,479 --> 01:12:16,320
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of essentially folks on the left and

1287
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 2: the right, said hey, let's not allow this to happen again.

1288
01:12:19,160 --> 01:12:23,640
Speaker 2: We need to create better guardrails to prevent this possibility

1289
01:12:23,680 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 2: going forward. We shouldn't have bags of cash pay for campaigns, right.

1290
01:12:27,600 --> 01:12:31,120
Speaker 2: And for about forty of the last fifty years we

1291
01:12:32,360 --> 01:12:35,080
Speaker 2: abided by these guardrails. And over the last ten years

1292
01:12:35,120 --> 01:12:39,080
Speaker 2: there was a concerted effort by Trump and others to

1293
01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:40,880
Speaker 2: let's get rid of them. And there's always been a

1294
01:12:40,880 --> 01:12:42,519
Speaker 2: movement to get rid of these things, whether it was

1295
01:12:42,560 --> 01:12:45,960
Speaker 2: bring money back into politics, unfettered, right, all of those things.

1296
01:12:46,760 --> 01:12:49,720
Speaker 2: And essentially, here we are that we're back sort of

1297
01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:52,200
Speaker 2: in you know where all of the Watergate era.

1298
01:12:52,400 --> 01:12:53,559
Speaker 1: Essentially Nixon now.

1299
01:12:53,439 --> 01:12:57,240
Speaker 2: Has won the If the last fifty years were a battle,

1300
01:12:57,920 --> 01:13:00,880
Speaker 2: the Nixon folks won the war because here we are

1301
01:13:02,439 --> 01:13:05,080
Speaker 2: is there just do you ever see an example anywhere

1302
01:13:05,120 --> 01:13:07,120
Speaker 2: else where? Because I fear we're not going to have

1303
01:13:07,160 --> 01:13:10,880
Speaker 2: this where there is a center that tries a sort

1304
01:13:10,920 --> 01:13:15,200
Speaker 2: of dispassionate center that tries to restore institutions and can

1305
01:13:15,240 --> 01:13:18,519
Speaker 2: actually win elections. Or are we sort of stuck in

1306
01:13:18,640 --> 01:13:21,920
Speaker 2: this sort of reactionary politics that I fear we are

1307
01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:23,439
Speaker 2: stuck in for about another generation.

1308
01:13:24,000 --> 01:13:26,280
Speaker 1: Look, I mean, the two things you would hope for

1309
01:13:27,040 --> 01:13:29,800
Speaker 1: One would be you have a sufficient crisis that you're

1310
01:13:29,840 --> 01:13:32,839
Speaker 1: able to take advantage of it and create a civic

1311
01:13:32,880 --> 01:13:36,320
Speaker 1: movement around it, right And the last one of those

1312
01:13:36,400 --> 01:13:39,400
Speaker 1: we had was in a sense too small to make

1313
01:13:39,439 --> 01:13:44,599
Speaker 1: that happen. It was the pandemic. And because we were

1314
01:13:44,840 --> 01:13:51,320
Speaker 1: very fortunate with vaccines real fast, and also because frankly,

1315
01:13:51,439 --> 01:13:54,519
Speaker 1: young people were pretty immune, it was really just you know,

1316
01:13:54,600 --> 01:13:57,720
Speaker 1: sort of the elderly and the sick, the infirm that

1317
01:13:58,360 --> 01:14:03,400
Speaker 1: were vulnerable to play politics with the pandemic very quickly.

1318
01:14:03,680 --> 01:14:06,360
Speaker 1: And that was really unfortunate, frankly, because you know, as

1319
01:14:06,479 --> 01:14:09,519
Speaker 1: as Rob Emmanuel says, you know, never let a good

1320
01:14:09,600 --> 01:14:13,120
Speaker 1: crisis go to waste, famous line, And we let this

1321
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:17,960
Speaker 1: crisis go to waste. So one would be that. And

1322
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:21,639
Speaker 1: the second, you know, is do we see a great

1323
01:14:21,720 --> 01:14:26,719
Speaker 1: leader emerge that you know, really can bring the country

1324
01:14:26,720 --> 01:14:28,400
Speaker 1: together and right now.

1325
01:14:28,240 --> 01:14:31,600
Speaker 2: Wants to you know, like Donald Trump does not want to.

1326
01:14:31,680 --> 01:14:35,439
Speaker 2: I had I had a listener send a question in saying,

1327
01:14:37,160 --> 01:14:38,840
Speaker 2: I can't believe the media is not making a bigger

1328
01:14:38,880 --> 01:14:40,680
Speaker 2: deal that Donald Trump didn't go to the funeral in

1329
01:14:40,720 --> 01:14:46,000
Speaker 2: Minnesota for the assassinated state legislator. And I thought, on

1330
01:14:46,000 --> 01:14:49,599
Speaker 2: one hand, you're right, any other American president probably would

1331
01:14:49,600 --> 01:14:52,640
Speaker 2: have gone, or a vice president would have gone, but

1332
01:14:52,760 --> 01:14:55,040
Speaker 2: not this one. And in fact, had this one gone,

1333
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:57,360
Speaker 2: it would have become a yes, it would have been

1334
01:14:57,360 --> 01:15:00,360
Speaker 2: a this is this is exact opposite, like you know.

1335
01:15:01,160 --> 01:15:05,280
Speaker 2: And yet I found myself, Yeah, I'm normalizing the era.

1336
01:15:05,439 --> 01:15:08,120
Speaker 2: Of course, Trump's not going to something like that, right,

1337
01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:10,760
Speaker 2: he doesn't want the country to be brought together. He

1338
01:15:10,800 --> 01:15:14,639
Speaker 2: doesn't succeed that way politically if we're together in his wad,

1339
01:15:14,880 --> 01:15:19,799
Speaker 2: So my concern. I was fortunate. I was really tickled.

1340
01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:22,880
Speaker 1: I was asked to give the graduation speech down at

1341
01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:25,920
Speaker 1: tu Lane, my alma mater. This is about a month ago,

1342
01:15:26,600 --> 01:15:30,160
Speaker 1: and one of the things I said to him was

1343
01:15:30,240 --> 01:15:33,040
Speaker 1: on this topic. It was that we've become a nation

1344
01:15:33,160 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 1: of winners as opposed to leaders, right, and Trump is

1345
01:15:38,640 --> 01:15:41,680
Speaker 1: a real reflection of that. And Bezos and Musk and

1346
01:15:41,720 --> 01:15:44,200
Speaker 1: all the rest. I mean, really for that Bezos wedding.

1347
01:15:44,800 --> 01:15:46,800
Speaker 2: By the way, if you dig up the archives right

1348
01:15:46,840 --> 01:15:50,400
Speaker 2: of Zeitgeist, fifty years from now, the Bezos Sanchez wedding

1349
01:15:50,880 --> 01:15:53,200
Speaker 2: to me will be emblematic of the Trump era without

1350
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:54,480
Speaker 2: even having to show Trump.

1351
01:15:54,320 --> 01:15:59,360
Speaker 1: Like it was excess right. It's this sort of unapologetic yes.

1352
01:15:59,520 --> 01:16:02,920
Speaker 2: And it's like this doesn't happen if Trump's not around,

1353
01:16:03,200 --> 01:16:04,520
Speaker 2: there's billionaires.

1354
01:16:04,560 --> 01:16:10,640
Speaker 1: Aren't this ostentatious in it? Perhaps if we have it,

1355
01:16:10,680 --> 01:16:12,720
Speaker 1: if we're living in a different era. I don't know,

1356
01:16:13,320 --> 01:16:15,559
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. We're

1357
01:16:15,600 --> 01:16:19,760
Speaker 1: really good at lionizing, you know, our entrepreneurs and all this,

1358
01:16:19,800 --> 01:16:20,920
Speaker 1: and lord knows you've been sure.

1359
01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:23,639
Speaker 2: But I feel like we used to be Horatio Alga

1360
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:26,640
Speaker 2: about it, Like there was sort of a the billionaires

1361
01:16:26,640 --> 01:16:28,559
Speaker 2: wanted to be just like us, right, I didn't you know,

1362
01:16:28,560 --> 01:16:30,280
Speaker 2: we didn't get the big Bill Gates wedding, we didn't

1363
01:16:30,280 --> 01:16:33,479
Speaker 2: get the big mark. I don't know, it just this felt,

1364
01:16:34,400 --> 01:16:36,639
Speaker 2: this felt right out of the nineteen twenties or thirties.

1365
01:16:36,680 --> 01:16:39,840
Speaker 1: That's all that. Again, we've done it before. That's my

1366
01:16:39,920 --> 01:16:41,479
Speaker 1: kind of point is like, I mean, you know, you

1367
01:16:41,520 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 1: look at the asters and I mean, you get it. Yes,

1368
01:16:44,760 --> 01:16:47,720
Speaker 1: So if I think about what happened after World War Two, right,

1369
01:16:47,760 --> 01:16:49,760
Speaker 1: we didn't want to get into World War Two. That

1370
01:16:49,880 --> 01:16:53,360
Speaker 1: was the America First Movement, and when we finally did,

1371
01:16:53,439 --> 01:16:56,800
Speaker 1: almost too late, we had a whole generation of Americans

1372
01:16:57,080 --> 01:16:59,800
Speaker 1: that recognized we actually had to lead. We had to

1373
01:17:00,520 --> 01:17:04,040
Speaker 1: not just for our friends, but for our vanquished enemies,

1374
01:17:04,120 --> 01:17:06,519
Speaker 1: and that was essential to who we were. And there

1375
01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:10,120
Speaker 1: was this civic responsibility at home. There was this civic

1376
01:17:10,160 --> 01:17:16,360
Speaker 1: responsibility abroad, and we've lost that and now so we

1377
01:17:16,439 --> 01:17:20,240
Speaker 1: don't really make leaders the way we used to there.

1378
01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:22,519
Speaker 1: You can still find them in the United States, don't

1379
01:17:22,520 --> 01:17:24,920
Speaker 1: get me wrong. I mean, heck, they just hope you know,

1380
01:17:25,320 --> 01:17:29,400
Speaker 1: is an American leader. That's really impressive. But the reality

1381
01:17:29,479 --> 01:17:32,639
Speaker 1: is that most people that we promote in our society

1382
01:17:32,680 --> 01:17:36,919
Speaker 1: today are winners. They're not leaders, and they create users,

1383
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:40,280
Speaker 1: and they're very oppositional inside the United States. And we

1384
01:17:40,360 --> 01:17:43,360
Speaker 1: have to ask ourselves some tough questions about what is

1385
01:17:43,439 --> 01:17:48,200
Speaker 1: it about our society, specifically our society, our culture, the

1386
01:17:48,240 --> 01:17:51,800
Speaker 1: things we value and the things we throw away that

1387
01:17:52,240 --> 01:17:55,759
Speaker 1: makes us believe that a winner culture and a winner

1388
01:17:55,800 --> 01:18:01,720
Speaker 1: take all culture is politically acceptable because it's it's the

1389
01:18:01,800 --> 01:18:03,559
Speaker 1: road to ruin in our country.

1390
01:18:03,560 --> 01:18:07,400
Speaker 2: Frankly, look, I mean not to get granular on this,

1391
01:18:07,520 --> 01:18:10,680
Speaker 2: but the reason we are now there's not been a

1392
01:18:10,720 --> 01:18:13,640
Speaker 2: good piece of massive legislation past this century in this

1393
01:18:13,680 --> 01:18:17,280
Speaker 2: country for one reason, neither party can work with the

1394
01:18:17,320 --> 01:18:19,719
Speaker 2: other side when they're when they get their brief period

1395
01:18:19,720 --> 01:18:21,599
Speaker 2: of being able to do everything on their own, so

1396
01:18:21,640 --> 01:18:25,840
Speaker 2: they're stuck having to govern with themselves. They create sort

1397
01:18:25,880 --> 01:18:29,360
Speaker 2: of Frankenstein versions of these bills. And the Biden bill

1398
01:18:29,439 --> 01:18:31,639
Speaker 2: was unpopular by the time it was done. This Trump

1399
01:18:31,680 --> 01:18:35,360
Speaker 2: bill is going to be unpopular by the time it's done.

1400
01:18:35,560 --> 01:18:38,800
Speaker 2: This happened to Obamacare, This happened to Bush when he

1401
01:18:38,880 --> 01:18:40,840
Speaker 2: tried to do his tax cut bill. Right like it,

1402
01:18:41,080 --> 01:18:46,360
Speaker 2: just when you govern this way, you're a it's bad

1403
01:18:46,439 --> 01:18:50,200
Speaker 2: policy you create. You know, we're creating this fiscal nightmare

1404
01:18:50,560 --> 01:18:54,080
Speaker 2: down the road. But it's also extraordinarily divisive, and it

1405
01:18:54,120 --> 01:18:56,519
Speaker 2: doesn't and it's not good politics. I mean, it is

1406
01:18:56,880 --> 01:19:01,439
Speaker 2: like this this bill. Look, I don't there's no good

1407
01:19:01,479 --> 01:19:05,280
Speaker 2: that will be out there politically. At best, Republicans should

1408
01:19:05,280 --> 01:19:07,080
Speaker 2: be able to hope they can neutralize it.

1409
01:19:07,120 --> 01:19:07,920
Speaker 1: But I just don't know.

1410
01:19:07,880 --> 01:19:09,880
Speaker 2: How they get in that positive out of anything they're

1411
01:19:09,880 --> 01:19:10,679
Speaker 2: passing in this bill.

1412
01:19:11,080 --> 01:19:14,840
Speaker 1: No, no, I mean the interesting thing this bill is

1413
01:19:14,880 --> 01:19:16,880
Speaker 1: going to create, in my view, a lot more Mum,

1414
01:19:16,960 --> 01:19:20,439
Speaker 1: Donnie's right, yeah, I mean, because what this bill is doing,

1415
01:19:20,479 --> 01:19:23,519
Speaker 1: it's leaning into we're not going to be the party

1416
01:19:23,560 --> 01:19:25,960
Speaker 1: that drains the swamp. And that was a very that

1417
01:19:26,040 --> 01:19:29,080
Speaker 1: was a popular thing that helped get Trump elected. He's

1418
01:19:29,120 --> 01:19:32,559
Speaker 1: done other things. He's trying to end wars, right, he's

1419
01:19:32,560 --> 01:19:36,840
Speaker 1: certainly securing the border, he's definitely going after woke. Right.

1420
01:19:37,160 --> 01:19:39,840
Speaker 1: Those things are very popular that the Democrats you know,

1421
01:19:39,920 --> 01:19:44,040
Speaker 1: basically fouled themselves on those issues, right, And Trump's on this.

1422
01:19:44,200 --> 01:19:48,160
Speaker 1: But but Trump is not draining the swamp. Trump is

1423
01:19:48,320 --> 01:19:52,040
Speaker 1: taking a lot of money from the swamp. He's actually facilitating,

1424
01:19:52,040 --> 01:19:53,400
Speaker 1: and he's making the swamp worse.

1425
01:19:54,080 --> 01:19:58,920
Speaker 2: Every political era ends usually in some corrupt usually having

1426
01:19:58,920 --> 01:19:59,679
Speaker 2: to do with something.

1427
01:20:00,040 --> 01:20:01,599
Speaker 1: It's corruption oriented, right.

1428
01:20:01,680 --> 01:20:04,720
Speaker 2: If you look at our history, small little periods in

1429
01:20:04,840 --> 01:20:06,960
Speaker 2: that way, and you could sort of I know.

1430
01:20:06,960 --> 01:20:08,880
Speaker 1: How this ends. I just don't know when it ends.

1431
01:20:09,439 --> 01:20:11,920
Speaker 1: That's usually how I tell people. Yeah, yeah, and I

1432
01:20:11,960 --> 01:20:15,360
Speaker 1: think that you know, it's unfortunately, you know, I look

1433
01:20:15,360 --> 01:20:18,760
Speaker 1: at Mondani and I say, look, socialists can't win in

1434
01:20:18,800 --> 01:20:23,920
Speaker 1: the United States against capitals, but can socialists win against kleptocrats?

1435
01:20:24,080 --> 01:20:25,479
Speaker 1: And they win against olive arts.

1436
01:20:25,600 --> 01:20:29,200
Speaker 2: Well, that's how socialists have won in the past, right, Right,

1437
01:20:29,760 --> 01:20:32,280
Speaker 2: They've won on corruption, and then they've lost when they've

1438
01:20:32,280 --> 01:20:35,280
Speaker 2: failed to govern, Right, Like, why hasn't it succeeded because.

1439
01:20:35,080 --> 01:20:37,280
Speaker 1: They've had a hard time to come? Doesn't work? Yeah, exactly.

1440
01:20:37,400 --> 01:20:40,840
Speaker 1: But the point is that the corruption, the kleptocracy is

1441
01:20:40,880 --> 01:20:43,800
Speaker 1: not working for average Americans at all, and AI is

1442
01:20:43,840 --> 01:20:46,439
Speaker 1: going to make that a lot worse. If America is

1443
01:20:46,479 --> 01:20:50,080
Speaker 1: still this corrupt and this kleptocratic in another five and

1444
01:20:50,080 --> 01:20:54,320
Speaker 1: another ten years with AI coming on board, you are

1445
01:20:54,360 --> 01:21:02,960
Speaker 1: going to disenfranchise unprecedented numbers of voters and that that's

1446
01:21:03,000 --> 01:21:04,559
Speaker 1: not going to work for people. There's going to be

1447
01:21:04,560 --> 01:21:07,320
Speaker 1: a huge political backlash against that. All right, I don't

1448
01:21:07,320 --> 01:21:10,280
Speaker 1: want to end on that downbeat note very quickly. Yeah,

1449
01:21:10,720 --> 01:21:13,120
Speaker 1: how come you don't capitalize when you write your column

1450
01:21:13,200 --> 01:21:15,760
Speaker 1: your e commings? The only thing I'm missing is morey

1451
01:21:15,760 --> 01:21:18,920
Speaker 1: e lipsies from you when you're writing. Yeah, I'm what

1452
01:21:19,040 --> 01:21:19,920
Speaker 1: is it? It just to happen?

1453
01:21:20,200 --> 01:21:22,799
Speaker 2: I love it to me. I know it's your writing.

1454
01:21:23,000 --> 01:21:24,840
Speaker 2: I don't have to see where the emails coming from.

1455
01:21:24,840 --> 01:21:28,320
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, this is Ian's because there's no capitalization.

1456
01:21:28,479 --> 01:21:30,400
Speaker 1: Is this? How long have you been doing that? I've

1457
01:21:30,400 --> 01:21:32,679
Speaker 1: been doing it for thirty years, I mean ever since

1458
01:21:32,720 --> 01:21:35,240
Speaker 1: I started the company, ever since I started writing on

1459
01:21:35,600 --> 01:21:39,360
Speaker 1: no capital letters, just don't capitalize it. Start. Remember when

1460
01:21:39,400 --> 01:21:41,519
Speaker 1: I started the company, it wasn't hundreds of people. It's

1461
01:21:41,520 --> 01:21:43,720
Speaker 1: just me, so I mean literally it was just me,

1462
01:21:43,880 --> 01:21:46,120
Speaker 1: and so all I was doing these were little notes

1463
01:21:46,160 --> 01:21:48,720
Speaker 1: that I was sending the people, and they were informal.

1464
01:21:48,920 --> 01:21:51,639
Speaker 1: And the way I always wrote my little informal notes

1465
01:21:51,800 --> 01:21:54,960
Speaker 1: was no capitals because it's friendly, it's engaging, and it's like,

1466
01:21:55,000 --> 01:21:58,760
Speaker 1: you know, hey, And and as it got bigger, I

1467
01:21:58,920 --> 01:22:02,559
Speaker 1: just never changed it. And you know, once something becomes

1468
01:22:02,600 --> 01:22:05,280
Speaker 1: big and you've done it the same way, it's authentically you,

1469
01:22:05,280 --> 01:22:07,720
Speaker 1: you don't change it. But I didn't used to. If

1470
01:22:07,760 --> 01:22:10,479
Speaker 1: you go to social media, when I first got myself

1471
01:22:10,520 --> 01:22:14,120
Speaker 1: on Twitter, and I was a fairly late adopter, I

1472
01:22:14,880 --> 01:22:19,960
Speaker 1: didn't publicly I used capital letters. And I stopped. And

1473
01:22:20,000 --> 01:22:23,679
Speaker 1: I stopped because I saw crazy people using all caps,

1474
01:22:23,920 --> 01:22:27,120
Speaker 1: all caps right, who were just like shoving their politics

1475
01:22:27,160 --> 01:22:28,960
Speaker 1: down your throat, and I'm like, no, no, I'm going to

1476
01:22:29,000 --> 01:22:31,639
Speaker 1: be the opposite of that. You're gonna be the uncapped guy. Yeah,

1477
01:22:31,680 --> 01:22:35,280
Speaker 1: the uncapped guy. It kind of it feels it fits

1478
01:22:35,320 --> 01:22:38,439
Speaker 1: my personality. The real challenge get a book published, get

1479
01:22:38,479 --> 01:22:40,559
Speaker 1: it through a publisher without being able to have a

1480
01:22:40,560 --> 01:22:43,120
Speaker 1: capital letter in it. Well, I mean, after all the

1481
01:22:43,160 --> 01:22:46,040
Speaker 1: publishers go bankrupt and we just self publish everything, it's

1482
01:22:46,040 --> 01:22:49,160
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot easier. Ian Bremmer.

1483
01:22:51,000 --> 01:22:52,920
Speaker 2: Do you travel a lot during the summer, there's a

1484
01:22:52,920 --> 01:22:54,400
Speaker 2: lot of these meetings. Do you try to get to

1485
01:22:54,640 --> 01:22:55,680
Speaker 2: every one of these big things?

1486
01:22:55,720 --> 01:22:58,280
Speaker 1: I tried to meeting spend a month in Nantucket and

1487
01:22:58,280 --> 01:23:03,520
Speaker 1: play tennis every day and and bike and barbecue and

1488
01:23:03,560 --> 01:23:04,479
Speaker 1: everything good.

1489
01:23:04,960 --> 01:23:07,920
Speaker 2: The all American way. Well, just don't do middle aged

1490
01:23:08,200 --> 01:23:08,920
Speaker 2: injury guy.

1491
01:23:09,400 --> 01:23:12,440
Speaker 1: No. But I mean, kid from the projects with this opportunity.

1492
01:23:12,479 --> 01:23:15,240
Speaker 1: I mean like I feel like, you know, take it. Yeah,

1493
01:23:15,560 --> 01:23:17,600
Speaker 1: you take it. You take it, and you're thankful and

1494
01:23:17,640 --> 01:23:21,240
Speaker 1: you're thankful for it every day percent. Yeah, and I'm

1495
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:23,040
Speaker 1: always smarter when I talk with you. Thank thank you, Chuck.

1496
01:23:23,040 --> 01:23:24,640
Speaker 1: It's great talk to you too.

1497
01:23:34,720 --> 01:23:36,720
Speaker 2: Well. I hope you enjoyed that conversation with Ian, As

1498
01:23:36,760 --> 01:23:39,880
Speaker 2: you know, I'm a huge fan of their work. I

1499
01:23:39,920 --> 01:23:45,799
Speaker 2: think it's it's uh clear eyed, it's dispassionate, it's reality based,

1500
01:23:45,960 --> 01:23:47,400
Speaker 2: and that's all we're trying to do here.

1501
01:23:47,439 --> 01:23:50,400
Speaker 1: Everything. I'm trying not to give you anything through a.

1502
01:23:50,320 --> 01:23:52,960
Speaker 2: Partisan lens, but through a reality lens, and I'd like

1503
01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:57,040
Speaker 2: to think Ian Bremer does that h extraordinarily well. By

1504
01:23:57,080 --> 01:23:59,800
Speaker 2: the way, speaking of Mondani, it's fascinating that the we

1505
01:24:00,280 --> 01:24:04,760
Speaker 2: reallocated results out of New York City, Momdani ended up

1506
01:24:04,800 --> 01:24:08,400
Speaker 2: topping Cuomo after all of the ring choice votes were

1507
01:24:08,439 --> 01:24:11,960
Speaker 2: reallocated by double digits. He got fifty six percent to

1508
01:24:12,040 --> 01:24:14,080
Speaker 2: Cuomo's forty four percent.

1509
01:24:14,760 --> 01:24:15,479
Speaker 1: So it is.

1510
01:24:16,080 --> 01:24:18,720
Speaker 2: It is Again, it was a closed Democratic primary, so

1511
01:24:18,720 --> 01:24:23,120
Speaker 2: obviously these are Democratic voters. But that is a strong mix.

1512
01:24:23,160 --> 01:24:25,439
Speaker 2: And I think you know, this is a choose your

1513
01:24:25,439 --> 01:24:29,040
Speaker 2: own adventure result, right. If you are more of a

1514
01:24:29,040 --> 01:24:31,320
Speaker 2: progressive idea log and you really want to go down

1515
01:24:31,320 --> 01:24:35,120
Speaker 2: this road and have this conversation about democratic socialism as

1516
01:24:35,200 --> 01:24:37,439
Speaker 2: being the heart and soul of where the Democratic Party

1517
01:24:37,439 --> 01:24:39,600
Speaker 2: should go, you're going to look at that result and

1518
01:24:40,120 --> 01:24:42,920
Speaker 2: take heart. If you are skeptical of that you may

1519
01:24:42,960 --> 01:24:44,800
Speaker 2: look at and you're on the left side of the aisle,

1520
01:24:44,840 --> 01:24:46,880
Speaker 2: you may look at that result and say, oh, that

1521
01:24:47,000 --> 01:24:49,600
Speaker 2: was as much anti Cuomo as it was pro Mondani.

1522
01:24:49,920 --> 01:24:52,160
Speaker 2: And I think that's the real debate, right, And I

1523
01:24:52,160 --> 01:24:54,639
Speaker 2: think that's that's something that a Good Eggs a poll

1524
01:24:54,680 --> 01:24:56,640
Speaker 2: which we did not do, nobody did out of New

1525
01:24:56,720 --> 01:24:59,519
Speaker 2: York City Democratic primary voters. But I think that's going

1526
01:24:59,560 --> 01:25:02,439
Speaker 2: to be the conversation many Democrats want to have with

1527
01:25:02,479 --> 01:25:09,519
Speaker 2: their own constituentsies. Is there a unifying message that isn't

1528
01:25:09,640 --> 01:25:10,240
Speaker 2: just Trump?

1529
01:25:10,439 --> 01:25:10,599
Speaker 1: Right?

1530
01:25:10,640 --> 01:25:14,760
Speaker 2: We know anti Trump can unify this coalition. But I guess,

1531
01:25:14,280 --> 01:25:17,720
Speaker 2: as the Democrats found out, just because AOC and Liz

1532
01:25:17,800 --> 01:25:20,160
Speaker 2: Cheney are on the same side on the issue of

1533
01:25:20,280 --> 01:25:22,760
Speaker 2: Trump and the Democracy doesn't mean they're on the same

1534
01:25:22,800 --> 01:25:24,840
Speaker 2: side as any other issue, and that that might not

1535
01:25:24,920 --> 01:25:27,559
Speaker 2: be enough, right. And I think voters have screamed loud

1536
01:25:27,560 --> 01:25:29,719
Speaker 2: and clear that they would like to see a little

1537
01:25:29,760 --> 01:25:32,559
Speaker 2: bit more focus on bread and butter issues, pocketbook issues.

1538
01:25:32,800 --> 01:25:36,800
Speaker 2: So is there something that brings these groups together or

1539
01:25:36,880 --> 01:25:41,720
Speaker 2: is this going to be a fight essentially for the

1540
01:25:41,800 --> 01:25:45,280
Speaker 2: art and soul of the Democratic Party. I think, frankly,

1541
01:25:45,280 --> 01:25:46,640
Speaker 2: it is going to be that kind of fight, and

1542
01:25:46,680 --> 01:25:47,960
Speaker 2: I think that's healthy.

1543
01:25:48,080 --> 01:25:48,479
Speaker 1: All right.

1544
01:25:48,560 --> 01:25:51,600
Speaker 2: The Republicans kind of had that fight right between this

1545
01:25:52,200 --> 01:25:54,960
Speaker 2: between the sort of the neo conservatives and the business

1546
01:25:54,960 --> 01:25:57,120
Speaker 2: wing of the party and this Donald Trump and the

1547
01:25:57,360 --> 01:26:01,040
Speaker 2: America Firsters and the nationalists. And one would argue that

1548
01:26:01,040 --> 01:26:05,200
Speaker 2: debate is still playing out, and the uncomfortable votes there

1549
01:26:05,240 --> 01:26:08,519
Speaker 2: you're seeing in Congress show you that it's a coalition

1550
01:26:08,600 --> 01:26:10,559
Speaker 2: that frankly doesn't know yet how.

1551
01:26:10,479 --> 01:26:12,320
Speaker 1: To govern for all of its voters.

1552
01:26:12,400 --> 01:26:16,200
Speaker 2: And I think now the question is how are the

1553
01:26:16,240 --> 01:26:19,240
Speaker 2: Democrats going to handle also a coalition that is as

1554
01:26:19,280 --> 01:26:23,559
Speaker 2: ideologically diverse, frankly on economic issues on the left as

1555
01:26:23,600 --> 01:26:25,960
Speaker 2: we're seeing on these economic issues on the right.

1556
01:26:26,000 --> 01:26:28,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's sneak in some mess, Chuck, ask Chuck.

1557
01:26:30,080 --> 01:26:32,360
Speaker 2: All right, first question comes from Howard S from good

1558
01:26:32,360 --> 01:26:33,240
Speaker 2: old Washington, DC.

1559
01:26:34,360 --> 01:26:34,559
Speaker 1: Chuck.

1560
01:26:34,680 --> 01:26:37,600
Speaker 2: I've long thought that the politician Trump most reminds me

1561
01:26:37,680 --> 01:26:40,519
Speaker 2: of is Marion Barry. Both built loyal basis by speaking

1562
01:26:40,560 --> 01:26:44,440
Speaker 2: directly to their supporters anxieties and fighting the liberal establishment,

1563
01:26:44,479 --> 01:26:46,400
Speaker 2: and both bounce back from legal troubles that would have

1564
01:26:46,439 --> 01:26:49,400
Speaker 2: ended most careers. But Barry's downfall came as he aged

1565
01:26:49,520 --> 01:26:52,240
Speaker 2: and his charisma faded, he lost the soft supporters he

1566
01:26:52,280 --> 01:26:54,759
Speaker 2: once who once overlooked his flaws. Do you think Trump's

1567
01:26:54,760 --> 01:26:56,720
Speaker 2: appeal might have rode the same way over the next

1568
01:26:56,760 --> 01:26:59,679
Speaker 2: few years, gradually shedding voters as he starts to seem

1569
01:26:59,720 --> 01:27:02,360
Speaker 2: weak and stale. Thanks for the great podcast. My dog

1570
01:27:02,400 --> 01:27:05,120
Speaker 2: and I listened on our daily walks, which he is

1571
01:27:05,200 --> 01:27:06,240
Speaker 2: most grateful for.

1572
01:27:06,280 --> 01:27:06,519
Speaker 1: Great.

1573
01:27:06,520 --> 01:27:10,160
Speaker 2: I'll keep these longer and longer so your dog can

1574
01:27:10,160 --> 01:27:13,240
Speaker 2: get longer walks, because we know that's really what they want.

1575
01:27:13,720 --> 01:27:15,200
Speaker 2: Keep walking us longer.

1576
01:27:16,240 --> 01:27:17,519
Speaker 1: Hey man, you know I'm not.

1577
01:27:17,920 --> 01:27:21,240
Speaker 2: I think that's a fascinating set of an analysis. If

1578
01:27:21,240 --> 01:27:23,920
Speaker 2: you know your history of Marion Berry, and you know,

1579
01:27:24,439 --> 01:27:26,760
Speaker 2: I remember my first year in Washington, d C.

1580
01:27:27,040 --> 01:27:29,320
Speaker 1: Was the year of the video.

1581
01:27:29,680 --> 01:27:32,599
Speaker 2: Okay, the year that he was where that was front

1582
01:27:32,600 --> 01:27:37,960
Speaker 2: and center. So my introduction to Marion Berry was, gosh, darn,

1583
01:27:38,000 --> 01:27:38,880
Speaker 2: you know, set me up.

1584
01:27:38,960 --> 01:27:39,320
Speaker 1: Okay.

1585
01:27:39,680 --> 01:27:42,439
Speaker 2: That was my essential freshman in college going to g

1586
01:27:43,240 --> 01:27:46,160
Speaker 2: This was on late night television because they couldn't put

1587
01:27:46,200 --> 01:27:50,840
Speaker 2: it on eleven o'clock at night. Over time, I would

1588
01:27:50,920 --> 01:27:53,559
Speaker 2: learn the history of Marion Berry and why there was

1589
01:27:53,600 --> 01:27:55,720
Speaker 2: such a loyal following, right, This was a guy who

1590
01:27:55,800 --> 01:27:58,599
Speaker 2: was truly on the front lines of the civil rights movement,

1591
01:27:59,160 --> 01:28:03,240
Speaker 2: took beatings in ways that that that others didn't. And

1592
01:28:03,280 --> 01:28:05,960
Speaker 2: it just you know, wasn't just a talker. Right, There's

1593
01:28:06,160 --> 01:28:09,280
Speaker 2: there's those in every movement that somehow jumped out in

1594
01:28:09,320 --> 01:28:13,360
Speaker 2: front without paying paying their dues. That's not Marion Barry.

1595
01:28:13,720 --> 01:28:18,040
Speaker 2: He paid his dues. Sometimes he paid physically paid a price.

1596
01:28:18,080 --> 01:28:20,960
Speaker 2: So that gets it to what you were saying there,

1597
01:28:21,000 --> 01:28:24,800
Speaker 2: Howard about this sort of for his soft supporters, in

1598
01:28:24,880 --> 01:28:28,639
Speaker 2: particular older soft supporters who always remembered, Hey, don't forget

1599
01:28:28,640 --> 01:28:30,680
Speaker 2: that guy who fought so hard for home rule for

1600
01:28:30,760 --> 01:28:34,599
Speaker 2: DC back in the day. And you're right, as he aged,

1601
01:28:35,040 --> 01:28:38,320
Speaker 2: he sort of lost that touch, right, he just physically

1602
01:28:38,400 --> 01:28:41,840
Speaker 2: couldn't get around the way he used to. And and

1603
01:28:42,080 --> 01:28:44,000
Speaker 2: it wasn't just Barry that faded away, but sort of

1604
01:28:44,000 --> 01:28:45,639
Speaker 2: the Barry politics faded away.

1605
01:28:45,720 --> 01:28:45,840
Speaker 1: Right.

1606
01:28:45,880 --> 01:28:49,000
Speaker 2: A few would ride Barry's coattails, maybe get elected to

1607
01:28:49,040 --> 01:28:51,960
Speaker 2: his council seat or get it, you know, get get

1608
01:28:51,960 --> 01:28:54,559
Speaker 2: a get close in the mayor's race, but but not

1609
01:28:54,600 --> 01:28:58,519
Speaker 2: really the history of Donald Trump are these moments where

1610
01:28:58,520 --> 01:29:01,920
Speaker 2: he just sort of fades away, right, faded away, right,

1611
01:29:02,080 --> 01:29:04,680
Speaker 2: he moved to politics because The Apprentice was failing as

1612
01:29:04,680 --> 01:29:07,280
Speaker 2: a television show, right, it was not getting the ratings

1613
01:29:07,320 --> 01:29:09,680
Speaker 2: at once. Was he was trying to goose it with

1614
01:29:09,720 --> 01:29:13,960
Speaker 2: things like Gary Busey and all that ridiculousness. His casino

1615
01:29:14,040 --> 01:29:17,920
Speaker 2: business faded, right, And so for Trump, it's actually a pattern, right,

1616
01:29:17,920 --> 01:29:21,679
Speaker 2: There's these there's these sort of meteoric rises on something,

1617
01:29:21,720 --> 01:29:24,680
Speaker 2: you know, the casino mogul, and then dramatic falls and

1618
01:29:24,720 --> 01:29:28,160
Speaker 2: then he sort of fades into the background for a while. Obviously,

1619
01:29:28,200 --> 01:29:30,000
Speaker 2: I think his age is probably.

1620
01:29:29,560 --> 01:29:31,160
Speaker 1: The biggest obstacle he faces.

1621
01:29:31,760 --> 01:29:34,679
Speaker 2: I could I already it feels like after four o'clock

1622
01:29:34,720 --> 01:29:37,240
Speaker 2: he's a little slower, you sort of hear if you've

1623
01:29:37,280 --> 01:29:40,519
Speaker 2: noticed when he speaks after four o'clock, it's a little slower.

1624
01:29:42,479 --> 01:29:45,160
Speaker 2: It's I think those signs are coming, and I think

1625
01:29:45,200 --> 01:29:49,599
Speaker 2: that that's likely to be, you know, and I'll be curious.

1626
01:29:49,640 --> 01:29:53,479
Speaker 2: You know, when Reagan was fading physically, you know, then

1627
01:29:53,479 --> 01:29:56,320
Speaker 2: he just disappeared, and in many ways, the ghost of

1628
01:29:56,360 --> 01:29:58,720
Speaker 2: Reagan became more powerful than the party, even though he

1629
01:29:58,760 --> 01:30:02,880
Speaker 2: was still alive, didn't have to speak. I don't think

1630
01:30:02,920 --> 01:30:05,479
Speaker 2: Donald Trump knows how to fade away without speaking. So

1631
01:30:07,479 --> 01:30:10,799
Speaker 2: I think the biggest difference between even Barry and Trump

1632
01:30:10,840 --> 01:30:13,320
Speaker 2: is that Trump's constantly going to try to insert himself

1633
01:30:13,360 --> 01:30:16,000
Speaker 2: back into the debate. Arguably Barry did too for a while,

1634
01:30:16,360 --> 01:30:19,000
Speaker 2: but even then sort of Barry knew maybe.

1635
01:30:18,720 --> 01:30:21,400
Speaker 1: His time, his time was coming anyway.

1636
01:30:21,479 --> 01:30:28,240
Speaker 2: Interesting, interesting comparison. And you're right the Verry loyalists stuck

1637
01:30:28,280 --> 01:30:30,920
Speaker 2: by him through thick and thin in the way that

1638
01:30:30,920 --> 01:30:32,760
Speaker 2: Trump loyalists had done the same with him.

1639
01:30:32,840 --> 01:30:33,200
Speaker 1: All right.

1640
01:30:33,360 --> 01:30:35,639
Speaker 2: Next question comes from Alex Oh. There's a large number

1641
01:30:35,640 --> 01:30:37,679
Speaker 2: of Democratic voters that believe the twenty twenty four election

1642
01:30:37,800 --> 01:30:40,280
Speaker 2: was stolen. The New York lawsuit over voting discrepancies in

1643
01:30:40,280 --> 01:30:43,360
Speaker 2: the often sided but likely misinterpreted comment Trump made during

1644
01:30:43,360 --> 01:30:45,800
Speaker 2: the election about how good Musk is with computers are

1645
01:30:45,800 --> 01:30:48,879
Speaker 2: the primary legs this conspiracy theory stands on. It's incredibly

1646
01:30:48,880 --> 01:30:51,960
Speaker 2: depressing to encounter election denialism on both sides. Now, what

1647
01:30:52,000 --> 01:30:53,880
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on this continued erosion of trust in

1648
01:30:53,880 --> 01:30:56,400
Speaker 2: our democracy? How long can this trend continue where the

1649
01:30:56,439 --> 01:30:59,160
Speaker 2: losing party has some significant portion of their base not

1650
01:30:59,200 --> 01:31:01,680
Speaker 2: believe in the rest. I'm very concerned about this. But

1651
01:31:01,960 --> 01:31:04,439
Speaker 2: here's a dirty little secret. Tell me the last We

1652
01:31:04,520 --> 01:31:07,760
Speaker 2: only have two elections. Try to think there's only two

1653
01:31:07,800 --> 01:31:11,200
Speaker 2: elections where there is not where there was not a

1654
01:31:11,280 --> 01:31:16,200
Speaker 2: concerted effort by semi reasonable people claiming, you know, on

1655
01:31:16,360 --> 01:31:19,719
Speaker 2: on one side or the other, claiming that the result

1656
01:31:19,800 --> 01:31:22,400
Speaker 2: should be called into question. It was the Obama's two

1657
01:31:22,479 --> 01:31:27,280
Speaker 2: victories eight and twelve. There's not any dispute. You know,

1658
01:31:27,560 --> 01:31:31,200
Speaker 2: there's not like people from the cane world who questioned

1659
01:31:31,200 --> 01:31:33,240
Speaker 2: the result. There's not people from Romney well To questioned

1660
01:31:33,240 --> 01:31:37,680
Speaker 2: the result. But let's go back two thousand election. Absolutely,

1661
01:31:37,920 --> 01:31:40,519
Speaker 2: plenty of Democrats to this day believe they won. That

1662
01:31:40,880 --> 01:31:43,160
Speaker 2: al Gore won that election, and that if everybody who

1663
01:31:43,160 --> 01:31:45,160
Speaker 2: intended to vote for al Gore's vote was counted in

1664
01:31:45,200 --> 01:31:47,639
Speaker 2: the state of Florida, he carries Florida and election is over.

1665
01:31:47,680 --> 01:31:51,040
Speaker 2: And you know, considering that butterfly ballot the bizarre Paty

1666
01:31:51,120 --> 01:31:54,000
Speaker 2: Cannon aspect. If you want to know what I'm talking about,

1667
01:31:54,240 --> 01:31:56,120
Speaker 2: you can go check out an old podcast I did

1668
01:31:56,600 --> 01:32:00,360
Speaker 2: podcast episodic series called Florida Florida, Florida so five parts series.

1669
01:32:00,360 --> 01:32:01,120
Speaker 1: I encourage it.

1670
01:32:01,120 --> 01:32:05,800
Speaker 2: It does live somewhere in the NBC archives. Two thousand

1671
01:32:05,800 --> 01:32:09,760
Speaker 2: and four. John Carrey to this day had very had

1672
01:32:09,880 --> 01:32:13,679
Speaker 2: huge questions in Ohio about the use of I think

1673
01:32:13,680 --> 01:32:16,400
Speaker 2: it was dominion voting systems, if I recall at the time,

1674
01:32:16,680 --> 01:32:19,439
Speaker 2: but he had he questioned that for quite some time.

1675
01:32:19,479 --> 01:32:22,280
Speaker 2: And there's still plenty of Carrie people who still question

1676
01:32:23,280 --> 01:32:27,519
Speaker 2: the Ohio result No. Four twenty sixteen. We know, right plenty.

1677
01:32:27,520 --> 01:32:29,400
Speaker 2: I don't think Hillary Clinton believes she lost on the

1678
01:32:29,439 --> 01:32:31,360
Speaker 2: up and up, believes the Russians had a huge role

1679
01:32:31,400 --> 01:32:36,479
Speaker 2: in this twenty twenty. I think Donald Trump doesn't believe

1680
01:32:36,479 --> 01:32:38,400
Speaker 2: in the twenty twenty results. I'm not sure though, as

1681
01:32:38,439 --> 01:32:41,800
Speaker 2: he said much about it in the past, and then

1682
01:32:41,840 --> 01:32:43,200
Speaker 2: now you're right about twenty four.

1683
01:32:43,280 --> 01:32:45,559
Speaker 1: So what does that tell us? Right?

1684
01:32:45,600 --> 01:32:47,439
Speaker 2: This is why I keep talking about the twenty first

1685
01:32:47,479 --> 01:32:49,559
Speaker 2: century in the sort of one big hole here in

1686
01:32:49,600 --> 01:32:54,360
Speaker 2: this dysfunction. We really are repeating sort of the worst

1687
01:32:54,360 --> 01:32:59,679
Speaker 2: parts of the nineteenth century without the Civil War aspect. Yeah,

1688
01:33:00,080 --> 01:33:03,479
Speaker 2: and you know, particularly the last half of the nineteenth century,

1689
01:33:04,240 --> 01:33:07,679
Speaker 2: we had disputed elections. People do not believe in the results.

1690
01:33:07,720 --> 01:33:10,280
Speaker 2: The eighteen seventy six election is something to this day.

1691
01:33:11,120 --> 01:33:13,920
Speaker 2: There's plenty of history books that will come down on

1692
01:33:14,000 --> 01:33:16,840
Speaker 2: either side of that coin about well, what did the

1693
01:33:16,960 --> 01:33:19,840
Speaker 2: actual number of votes say what about this? Votes were

1694
01:33:19,880 --> 01:33:26,760
Speaker 2: thrown out, who was disenfranchised from voting? So it's I

1695
01:33:26,840 --> 01:33:30,240
Speaker 2: do think it is a sign of a weak democracy

1696
01:33:31,360 --> 01:33:33,519
Speaker 2: when that is what's going on, right and this is

1697
01:33:33,520 --> 01:33:36,400
Speaker 2: a sign of poor leadership right now and both parties

1698
01:33:36,479 --> 01:33:39,920
Speaker 2: not being able to you know, I think it says

1699
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:43,719
Speaker 2: a lot about Barack Obama's leadership that there wasn't questions

1700
01:33:43,800 --> 01:33:46,839
Speaker 2: like that. You know, I think if if the if

1701
01:33:47,040 --> 01:33:52,160
Speaker 2: there is acceptance and belief in the winner, an acceptance

1702
01:33:52,200 --> 01:33:54,960
Speaker 2: of their leadership, that they're somehow worthy of being there,

1703
01:33:55,439 --> 01:33:58,519
Speaker 2: then you're not gonna you know, these conspiracy theories aren't

1704
01:33:58,600 --> 01:34:01,639
Speaker 2: as easy to don't have as much room to fester.

1705
01:34:02,200 --> 01:34:04,920
Speaker 2: But when we've had these extraordinarily close elections that are

1706
01:34:04,920 --> 01:34:08,360
Speaker 2: extraordinarily polarizing two thousand and two, thousand and four, twenty sixteen,

1707
01:34:08,360 --> 01:34:11,280
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, twenty twenty four, right, all of them were

1708
01:34:11,400 --> 01:34:15,240
Speaker 2: very much knife edge elections, all of them at both

1709
01:34:15,439 --> 01:34:18,720
Speaker 2: parties at one point would say, you know, this is

1710
01:34:18,760 --> 01:34:21,240
Speaker 2: the most important election in your lifetime. I'm exhausted from

1711
01:34:21,320 --> 01:34:23,320
Speaker 2: voting and all these I've voted in so many most

1712
01:34:23,320 --> 01:34:28,479
Speaker 2: important elections in my lifetime. I'm exhausted, right, But you know,

1713
01:34:28,560 --> 01:34:31,080
Speaker 2: I think that this is a pretty big sign that

1714
01:34:31,080 --> 01:34:33,880
Speaker 2: we've got we've got a problem and the health of

1715
01:34:33,880 --> 01:34:40,960
Speaker 2: our democracy. Look in nineteen ninety two, if the nineteen

1716
01:34:41,000 --> 01:34:44,080
Speaker 2: ninety two election was held through the prism of today's politics,

1717
01:34:44,920 --> 01:34:49,800
Speaker 2: there'd be all sorts of semi mainstream conspiracy theories about

1718
01:34:49,960 --> 01:34:52,680
Speaker 2: did Ross Paroe secretly work with Bill Clinton? Did you

1719
01:34:52,720 --> 01:34:55,080
Speaker 2: know Rossboro do this, and this is how he threw

1720
01:34:55,120 --> 01:34:58,240
Speaker 2: the election this way, or this is what all sorts

1721
01:34:58,280 --> 01:35:01,920
Speaker 2: of bizarre nonsense. But the fact is that.

1722
01:35:01,800 --> 01:35:03,719
Speaker 1: Didn't happen after ninety two. Right.

1723
01:35:04,000 --> 01:35:06,880
Speaker 2: Part of it again was the leadership of George H. W.

1724
01:35:07,040 --> 01:35:09,679
Speaker 2: Bush and a Ross Perot and a Bill Clinton who

1725
01:35:09,680 --> 01:35:14,680
Speaker 2: never went down those roads. You know, now they would

1726
01:35:14,720 --> 01:35:17,760
Speaker 2: Bush acolytes say, boy, if Parot hadn't run, maybe we

1727
01:35:17,760 --> 01:35:21,599
Speaker 2: would have won. Okay, sure, but they weren't going down

1728
01:35:21,680 --> 01:35:24,360
Speaker 2: a conspiratorial road. So I do think it's a sign

1729
01:35:24,400 --> 01:35:27,760
Speaker 2: of just how sick our democracy is right now. Right,

1730
01:35:27,760 --> 01:35:30,719
Speaker 2: We're not healthy. This is not a healthy democracy, because

1731
01:35:30,720 --> 01:35:33,840
Speaker 2: if we were, we wouldn't have let me count them

1732
01:35:33,920 --> 01:35:39,559
Speaker 2: up again twenty four, twenty sixteen, four in two thousand,

1733
01:35:39,640 --> 01:35:43,479
Speaker 2: so five of the last seven elections where the losing

1734
01:35:43,680 --> 01:35:50,759
Speaker 2: side has made has had serious people make the case

1735
01:35:50,800 --> 01:35:57,400
Speaker 2: that maybe something wasn't on the app and up. That's

1736
01:35:57,439 --> 01:35:59,120
Speaker 2: one of those. We got to accept the premise here

1737
01:35:59,120 --> 01:36:02,960
Speaker 2: that the democ Chris he is sick. We're in a

1738
01:36:02,960 --> 01:36:05,800
Speaker 2: tough point, all right. Last question, Skokey Illinois. For those

1739
01:36:05,840 --> 01:36:08,760
Speaker 2: of us of a certain age, Skoky is that infamous

1740
01:36:09,640 --> 01:36:13,120
Speaker 2: KKK march that was sort of inspired that.

1741
01:36:14,240 --> 01:36:15,960
Speaker 1: For me, it was one of the first.

1742
01:36:15,720 --> 01:36:19,800
Speaker 2: Times I understood the sort of the fight over the

1743
01:36:19,800 --> 01:36:24,240
Speaker 2: First Amendment right and why, whether you like it or not.

1744
01:36:24,560 --> 01:36:28,120
Speaker 2: You know, Nazis, you know, have the same right of

1745
01:36:28,160 --> 01:36:32,759
Speaker 2: free speech as anybody else does, or Nazi acolyte. So anyway,

1746
01:36:32,920 --> 01:36:37,640
Speaker 2: apologies that I still go there on Skoky eron, But anyway,

1747
01:36:37,760 --> 01:36:40,559
Speaker 2: I just thought i'd throw that out there. So hopefully

1748
01:36:40,560 --> 01:36:43,160
Speaker 2: I've not chased you away by going down that road.

1749
01:36:43,600 --> 01:36:46,920
Speaker 2: Here's your question, Hi, Chuck, loved the new podcast Keep

1750
01:36:46,960 --> 01:36:49,000
Speaker 2: Them Coming. A what if question for you? Back in

1751
01:36:49,000 --> 01:36:50,880
Speaker 2: two thousand and four, when Jack Ryan dropped out of

1752
01:36:50,880 --> 01:36:53,400
Speaker 2: the Illinois Senate race, Mike Ditka was courted to run.

1753
01:36:53,400 --> 01:36:54,960
Speaker 2: I really believed that if Ditka had jumped in, he

1754
01:36:54,960 --> 01:36:57,280
Speaker 2: would have beaten Obama. Maybe not by a huge margin,

1755
01:36:57,320 --> 01:36:59,639
Speaker 2: but enough. In my opinion, Ditka was huge in Illinois

1756
01:36:59,640 --> 01:37:02,200
Speaker 2: then still writing the Bears legacy and had a big

1757
01:37:02,240 --> 01:37:05,080
Speaker 2: media presence. If that had happened, Hillary probably gets the

1758
01:37:05,120 --> 01:37:08,200
Speaker 2: twenty oh eight nomination instead, McCain runs against her, and

1759
01:37:08,240 --> 01:37:11,000
Speaker 2: maybe Trump stays out of politics altogether. How different do

1760
01:37:11,040 --> 01:37:13,559
Speaker 2: you think things might look today of the coach had

1761
01:37:13,560 --> 01:37:16,680
Speaker 2: said yes, thanks for helping keeping us all informed. I

1762
01:37:16,880 --> 01:37:19,080
Speaker 2: you know, it's funny I bring this up all the time,

1763
01:37:19,520 --> 01:37:25,360
Speaker 2: the Ditka thing, because I also Dika was at one

1764
01:37:25,400 --> 01:37:27,400
Speaker 2: of the last events at the White House that wasn't

1765
01:37:27,479 --> 01:37:31,040
Speaker 2: partisan that could have easily happened that in today's era

1766
01:37:31,080 --> 01:37:34,320
Speaker 2: wouldn't have happened. So Barack Obama late in the second term,

1767
01:37:34,439 --> 01:37:37,720
Speaker 2: you know, that famous team that Ditka was a coach of,

1768
01:37:37,760 --> 01:37:40,080
Speaker 2: the eighty five Bears, never got their White House visit

1769
01:37:40,560 --> 01:37:47,760
Speaker 2: because I believe, if I'm not mistaken, the challenger accident happened, and.

1770
01:37:48,120 --> 01:37:48,360
Speaker 1: And it.

1771
01:37:49,880 --> 01:37:53,400
Speaker 2: Was just it was postponed and then it was never rescheduled.

1772
01:37:53,760 --> 01:37:57,040
Speaker 2: Those things are tough, right. You're bringing some you know,

1773
01:37:57,120 --> 01:38:00,960
Speaker 2: fifty football players another twenty five personnel, so it's not

1774
01:38:01,160 --> 01:38:04,439
Speaker 2: easy to coordinate those things, so they never got their

1775
01:38:04,439 --> 01:38:08,160
Speaker 2: White House celebration. So Obama, being a Chicago guy, decided, hey,

1776
01:38:08,200 --> 01:38:08,639
Speaker 2: he was going.

1777
01:38:08,640 --> 01:38:08,920
Speaker 1: To do that.

1778
01:38:08,960 --> 01:38:10,600
Speaker 2: He did that for two teams that never got a

1779
01:38:10,640 --> 01:38:13,880
Speaker 2: celebration for whatever reason. The undefeated seventy two Dolphins never

1780
01:38:13,920 --> 01:38:16,640
Speaker 2: got their White House visit either, so he for the

1781
01:38:16,680 --> 01:38:20,320
Speaker 2: remaining of those guys, he did a White House event

1782
01:38:20,360 --> 01:38:24,519
Speaker 2: for them, and Ditcka was there, and Dicka was Dica. Man,

1783
01:38:24,520 --> 01:38:25,960
Speaker 2: it was such a great event. It was on the

1784
01:38:25,960 --> 01:38:28,599
Speaker 2: South Lawn, I remember, and even sort of hinted, he goes, hey,

1785
01:38:28,640 --> 01:38:30,240
Speaker 2: I could have run against this guy, and who knows,

1786
01:38:30,280 --> 01:38:32,880
Speaker 2: you know, but it was friendly banter, and it was

1787
01:38:32,920 --> 01:38:37,320
Speaker 2: sort of Obama and Dicka Diicca definitely, you know, a Republican,

1788
01:38:37,320 --> 01:38:41,120
Speaker 2: not an Obama political supporter, but treated Obama as the

1789
01:38:41,160 --> 01:38:42,000
Speaker 2: president first.

1790
01:38:41,880 --> 01:38:43,200
Speaker 1: Not a partisan first anyway.

1791
01:38:43,200 --> 01:38:45,120
Speaker 2: It was just it was just a reminder that that,

1792
01:38:45,600 --> 01:38:46,960
Speaker 2: you know, there was a time we knew how to

1793
01:38:47,000 --> 01:38:52,800
Speaker 2: sort of compartmentalize partisan politics. Look, let's think about let's

1794
01:38:52,800 --> 01:38:55,360
Speaker 2: think about the situation two thousand and four political right.

1795
01:38:55,479 --> 01:38:57,320
Speaker 2: You know, Barack Obama was one of the one of

1796
01:38:57,360 --> 01:39:01,040
Speaker 2: the few Democratic bright spots, and four election it was

1797
01:39:01,080 --> 01:39:04,559
Speaker 2: a close election between Bush and Kerry. But for the

1798
01:39:04,600 --> 01:39:08,799
Speaker 2: most part, I believe that's when Thune defeated, defeats Dashel

1799
01:39:09,960 --> 01:39:13,040
Speaker 2: that and Dashell loses his Senate seat. It was a

1800
01:39:13,920 --> 01:39:18,880
Speaker 2: Republicans had a pretty decent down ballot. The Republicans re

1801
01:39:18,920 --> 01:39:21,320
Speaker 2: elected everything. That's one of just two elections in the

1802
01:39:21,320 --> 01:39:25,080
Speaker 2: twenty first century where all the parties essentially won reelection

1803
01:39:25,600 --> 01:39:31,280
Speaker 2: right Obama and twelve. The Democratic Senate won reelection. In

1804
01:39:31,320 --> 01:39:34,439
Speaker 2: that Republican House one reelection and Obama won reelection well

1805
01:39:34,479 --> 01:39:38,120
Speaker 2: and O four no changes either. Right, Bush win's reelection, House,

1806
01:39:38,160 --> 01:39:43,800
Speaker 2: Republicans win reelection. Senate Republicans win reelection. I don't know

1807
01:39:44,560 --> 01:39:48,800
Speaker 2: on Ditka, what kind of Chicago support does he get, right,

1808
01:39:49,640 --> 01:39:54,280
Speaker 2: I think we were probably underestimating. Look, Obama caught a

1809
01:39:54,280 --> 01:39:57,200
Speaker 2: couple of breaks. If you recall, in his he had

1810
01:39:57,760 --> 01:40:00,080
Speaker 2: a candidate self destruct in his primary. I think his

1811
01:40:00,160 --> 01:40:03,200
Speaker 2: name was Blair Hall, who was made a fortune counting

1812
01:40:03,240 --> 01:40:07,280
Speaker 2: cards and blackjack, and then he had a at a

1813
01:40:07,320 --> 01:40:09,920
Speaker 2: really nasty divorce that got public and that sort of

1814
01:40:10,240 --> 01:40:12,320
Speaker 2: put him in a weird place. And then the Jack Ryan,

1815
01:40:12,360 --> 01:40:14,920
Speaker 2: if you want to Jack Ryan was this rising star

1816
01:40:14,960 --> 01:40:18,400
Speaker 2: in the Republican Party. In fact, Jack Ryan Barack Obama

1817
01:40:18,479 --> 01:40:20,120
Speaker 2: was going to be this premier center raised. The joke

1818
01:40:20,320 --> 01:40:23,760
Speaker 2: was winner becomes president, right, Jack Ryan and Obama both

1819
01:40:23,800 --> 01:40:27,920
Speaker 2: had sort of the movie star looks, as Trump might say,

1820
01:40:26,960 --> 01:40:30,120
Speaker 2: they had it right, you know, they looked at they

1821
01:40:30,160 --> 01:40:33,800
Speaker 2: looked the part. Jack Ryan is to this day one

1822
01:40:33,840 --> 01:40:37,760
Speaker 2: of the few people that essentially got chased out of

1823
01:40:37,760 --> 01:40:40,479
Speaker 2: politics for wanting to have sex with his wife. Now,

1824
01:40:41,640 --> 01:40:43,640
Speaker 2: Jack Ryan wanted to have sex with his wife in

1825
01:40:43,640 --> 01:40:46,200
Speaker 2: a public place, and that's what was uncomfortable. He was

1826
01:40:46,200 --> 01:40:48,640
Speaker 2: married to a woman who was a star of the

1827
01:40:48,680 --> 01:40:50,559
Speaker 2: TV show Deep Space nine, so it.

1828
01:40:50,479 --> 01:40:52,559
Speaker 1: Became got a little celebrified, if you will.

1829
01:40:53,200 --> 01:40:55,720
Speaker 2: So then all of a sudden he drops out and

1830
01:40:55,760 --> 01:40:58,840
Speaker 2: they have to find So there's no doubt, right that

1831
01:40:59,200 --> 01:41:03,559
Speaker 2: four race for Obama was sort of everybody self destructing

1832
01:41:03,560 --> 01:41:05,479
Speaker 2: in front of him. So at that time I remember

1833
01:41:05,520 --> 01:41:09,400
Speaker 2: before oh wait, there was some well was Obama successful

1834
01:41:09,520 --> 01:41:11,240
Speaker 2: or did his opponent self destruct?

1835
01:41:11,320 --> 01:41:11,479
Speaker 1: Right?

1836
01:41:11,520 --> 01:41:13,280
Speaker 2: So there was before we found out how good of

1837
01:41:13,320 --> 01:41:16,719
Speaker 2: a political athlete he really was. And that's I guess

1838
01:41:16,720 --> 01:41:20,360
Speaker 2: the question I would have Obama Ditka debates, right, how

1839
01:41:20,360 --> 01:41:21,200
Speaker 2: would those have gone?

1840
01:41:21,760 --> 01:41:22,639
Speaker 1: Could Ditka win?

1841
01:41:22,920 --> 01:41:27,360
Speaker 2: Enough voters in Chicago in order to pull that off.

1842
01:41:27,960 --> 01:41:30,920
Speaker 2: I don't know, but I do agree with you. It's

1843
01:41:30,920 --> 01:41:33,760
Speaker 2: a much closer race. And obviously, if he wins the

1844
01:41:33,800 --> 01:41:37,959
Speaker 2: scenario you outline, it is probably a more likely scenario.

1845
01:41:38,000 --> 01:41:38,720
Speaker 1: And you're right.

1846
01:41:38,960 --> 01:41:41,840
Speaker 2: Maybe Hillary Clinton is president in eight or maybe John

1847
01:41:41,920 --> 01:41:47,240
Speaker 2: mccainbe Tillary Clinton. But either way, there may not be

1848
01:41:47,280 --> 01:41:50,040
Speaker 2: a Barack Obama right away. But then again, Barack Obama

1849
01:41:50,120 --> 01:41:52,360
Speaker 2: becomes my guess, if he loses that race, who runs

1850
01:41:52,360 --> 01:41:55,280
Speaker 2: for governor in twenty ten, maybe becomes governor, maybe runs

1851
01:41:55,280 --> 01:41:56,840
Speaker 2: for governor in twenty oh six for all we know,

1852
01:41:59,000 --> 01:42:02,439
Speaker 2: and feats Blagoyevitch in a primary or something at the time.

1853
01:42:03,439 --> 01:42:05,559
Speaker 2: But it's a good what if. And the Dikka thing

1854
01:42:05,640 --> 01:42:07,840
Speaker 2: was real. It was not just some pie in the sky.

1855
01:42:07,920 --> 01:42:10,160
Speaker 2: He really thought about it. And like I said, I

1856
01:42:10,200 --> 01:42:15,439
Speaker 2: remember quite well Ditkas, the Ditka visit with the eighty

1857
01:42:15,439 --> 01:42:18,439
Speaker 2: five Bears, with Obama's president, it came up. It's a

1858
01:42:18,479 --> 01:42:20,519
Speaker 2: fun little I'm sure you can find the moment on YouTube.

1859
01:42:21,320 --> 01:42:23,559
Speaker 2: I think you would enjoy it a lot there erin,

1860
01:42:24,760 --> 01:42:27,519
Speaker 2: but appreciate the the what if question. For those of

1861
01:42:27,560 --> 01:42:30,280
Speaker 2: you that are new to this podcast, at the end

1862
01:42:30,360 --> 01:42:32,559
Speaker 2: of every calendar year, I do a series of what

1863
01:42:32,600 --> 01:42:35,439
Speaker 2: ifs of different historical butterfly effects.

1864
01:42:35,479 --> 01:42:36,320
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of it.

1865
01:42:36,360 --> 01:42:37,880
Speaker 2: You can go back and listen to my old what

1866
01:42:37,960 --> 01:42:42,000
Speaker 2: ifs on the NBC Audio archives back there. But I

1867
01:42:42,080 --> 01:42:47,160
Speaker 2: love me a good you know, butterfly effect on political

1868
01:42:47,200 --> 01:42:51,120
Speaker 2: outcomes scenario. I think it's the frankly alternative history sometimes

1869
01:42:51,200 --> 01:42:53,639
Speaker 2: the best way to learn actual history. As you figure

1870
01:42:53,680 --> 01:42:56,040
Speaker 2: out what could have been, it tells you a lot

1871
01:42:56,080 --> 01:43:00,080
Speaker 2: more about what has been. All Right, I'm going you

1872
01:43:00,200 --> 01:43:02,600
Speaker 2: do pause there, believe it or not.

1873
01:43:02,720 --> 01:43:02,920
Speaker 1: I know.

1874
01:43:02,960 --> 01:43:06,600
Speaker 2: I said I was gonna, you know, have fewer uploads

1875
01:43:06,720 --> 01:43:08,320
Speaker 2: in the month of July, and.

1876
01:43:08,720 --> 01:43:10,920
Speaker 1: Not this week. I got one good another good one

1877
01:43:10,920 --> 01:43:11,799
Speaker 1: coming for you tomorrow.

1878
01:43:11,840 --> 01:43:14,639
Speaker 2: So with that, we'll take a twenty four hour break

1879
01:43:15,520 --> 01:43:16,519
Speaker 2: until we upload again.