Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news news flow.
Speaker 2: Here with the President landing for the G seven meeting,
Speaker 2: we're going to go to Tyler kendabut dash to Rebecca
Speaker 2: Patterson right now to be kind senior fellow at the
Speaker 2: Council on Foreign Relations, her work at Bridgewater, bestsemmer at
Speaker 2: JP Morgan over the years, thrilled she could join. I
Speaker 2: guess I got to do the FED meeting. To me,
Speaker 2: it could be dramatic. If he's going to change things.
Speaker 2: He doesn't want to dawdle around, does he?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think priority one, two and three this
Speaker 3: week is reinforce the Fed's credibility. You don't want any
Speaker 3: questions about any political bias. So that's goal number one
Speaker 3: for Kevin Warsh this week, I think, which he should
Speaker 3: be able to execute beautifully. I think beyond that, if
Speaker 3: he does a press conference, I expect you will, but
Speaker 3: it's not a given. If he does a press conference,
Speaker 3: then that'll be his opportunity to lay out the priorities.
Speaker 4: What is he going to focus on? First?
Speaker 3: I would imagine he wants to review all the economic models,
Speaker 3: the processes.
Speaker 4: He's going to review communication.
Speaker 3: He's already been very vocal about having less communication, think
Speaker 3: more less.
Speaker 2: It has been for years.
Speaker 1: Yes, a new thing, the balance sheet will wait.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so, Rebecca, obviously he's got some level of pressure
Speaker 5: from the President, from the White House to lower rates.
Speaker 5: But wait, the data is not there. He's got a
Speaker 5: committee he has to deal with.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 4: Wait.
Speaker 5: I would think the messaging this week is as much
Speaker 5: for the rest of US i e. The market, maybe
Speaker 5: even more so for the President.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's got a difficult needle to thread here, right,
Speaker 3: Keep the President on his side ideally, but build credibility
Speaker 3: and trust with his colleagues at the FOMC, I mean,
Speaker 3: And to your point on the data, I mean, right now,
Speaker 3: core PCE for May is tracking at around three point
Speaker 3: three percent year on year. If that's the number that
Speaker 3: comes in or something like that, there's no way they
Speaker 3: can cut rates anytime soon. And even if the Straight
Speaker 3: of the Hormotes Straight of Hormones does open soon, which
Speaker 3: we all hope it does, and oil prices retreat further,
Speaker 3: you still have a strong economy now probably stronger. You
Speaker 3: have inflation coming through the AI channel as well as
Speaker 3: other channels, and so it seems like the market pricing
Speaker 3: and the possibility of a hike makes a lot more sense.
Speaker 3: So that is going to be a challenge for Chairman
Speaker 3: Warsh for sure.
Speaker 5: About US dollar here, we kind of came into the year,
Speaker 5: I guess the consensus on the street was for a
Speaker 5: weeker dollar, and then the war with Iran starts and
Speaker 5: we had that flight to quality like we typically see.
Speaker 3: Now what Well, the dollar until the news over the
Speaker 3: weekend was down or sorry, it was down against only
Speaker 3: two major currencies, the Norwegian crown and the Australian dollar,
Speaker 3: both big commodity exporters.
Speaker 4: It was stronger against everything else.
Speaker 3: Primarily on rate expectations, higher interest rates following higher energy
Speaker 3: prices and broader inflations. Now that that is off the table,
Speaker 3: you have seen yields, as you guys just mentioned, down
Speaker 3: a little bit. You are seeing the dollar down a
Speaker 3: little bit today. And the question again it goes back
Speaker 3: to the Fed. Do we have a hawkish bias in
Speaker 3: the press conference this week or not?
Speaker 4: I think the raid expectations.
Speaker 3: Will continue to be pretty important for the dollar going ahead.
Speaker 3: And again it's not just the US, right two sides
Speaker 3: to every currency trade. We expect a Bank of Japan
Speaker 3: hike this week, the ECB, the Euthpean Central Bank.
Speaker 4: Just raised rates. So it's it's not clear how much
Speaker 4: stronger the dollar gets.
Speaker 2: Out of Florida. And Johns Hopkins, I mean, there was
Speaker 2: this idea that if you end a war, even as
Speaker 2: Caplin says, a middle war, the idea is you get
Speaker 2: a disinflationary tendency. So not Rebecca Patterson now at CFR.
Speaker 2: But if you're on Wall Street right now, in what's
Speaker 2: clearly a boom investment banking environment, do you just assume disinflation?
Speaker 3: I wouldn't assume anything right now. Look, we have we
Speaker 3: have some tweets and some headlines suggesting that we have
Speaker 3: a step forward towards peace, but the deal isn't supposed
Speaker 3: to be signed till Friday, and even then it's not
Speaker 3: clear yet if it sticks, it's not clear what the
Speaker 3: terms are going to be. I mean, Iran wants and
Speaker 3: needs funding. I think they could still pressure to have
Speaker 3: some sort of fee, service fee to go through the
Speaker 3: straight not at all a service fee.
Speaker 2: And Paul, this is really Rick Wilson just down on
Speaker 2: Twitter with just a scathing quick note like where are
Speaker 2: the details?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: When do we get the details?
Speaker 4: I don't have an answer, and we might not for
Speaker 4: sixty days. Right.
Speaker 2: The markets will flip right around if we do that.
Speaker 3: Well, they may do that, right, and that's the point.
Speaker 3: Oil has come down, stocks are up. Does it last?
Speaker 3: Do you want to chase it here? I mean, if
Speaker 3: we have peace and it's certainly in both sides interest
Speaker 3: to have peace. Iran desperately needs money, it needs to rebuild.
Speaker 3: US does not want oil at a four handle or
Speaker 3: thirty year year olds at a five handle going into midterms.
Speaker 5: Gold, well, it seems like just a cup of coffee.
Speaker 5: Ghost tom And said, we're at five thousand dollars and
Speaker 5: now so we've seen a pullback hereda forty three hundred.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you had a lot of speculative money
Speaker 3: going to gold at the beginning of the year. We
Speaker 3: had a little bit of a parabolic move, So that
Speaker 3: was part of it. But the other part of it
Speaker 3: is we did have two big central banks, Russia and
Speaker 3: Turkey selling Russia sold for four months in a row.
Speaker 3: Turkey was the biggest seller of gold in March. But
Speaker 3: those are the outliers. Central banks in general are continuing
Speaker 3: to buy.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance across the Snaetion boy and for San Antonio.
Speaker 2: Three am at a diner a re order tried to
Speaker 2: get over the hangover. Joining us now with Rebecca Patterson
Speaker 2: and studio is Anri Horden, who was doing a seminar
Speaker 2: in Houston. Can you get me tickets to Santonio? I'll
Speaker 2: take it over. How did you get from Houston to
Speaker 2: San Antonio?
Speaker 1: Our friend drove me.
Speaker 2: Friend.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so a friend saw that I was in Houston.
Speaker 4: Also saw I was at.
Speaker 1: Game three with the Presidents that I'm going to game five.
Speaker 1: Why didn't you come?
Speaker 6: And I made a game time, game time decision Saturday
Speaker 6: morning and I was like, you know what, Like, I'm
Speaker 6: so cool?
Speaker 2: Are you sitting with Prince Harry?
Speaker 1: I was not sitting with Prince Harry. Oh yeah, you
Speaker 1: texted me.
Speaker 4: I saw him. I saw Spike Lee.
Speaker 6: I was sitting more by Patrick Ewing, which was pretty amazing,
Speaker 6: and did a block your view?
Speaker 1: He did not block my view. He was actually behind me.
Speaker 6: So I will say San Antonio was the sixth borough
Speaker 6: on Saturday night. It was how to be fifty percent
Speaker 6: maybe seventy five percent New York Knick fans, and the
Speaker 6: first quarter or two obviously we were behind, but we've
Speaker 6: been there before and it was a little a little intense,
Speaker 6: and then Jalen Brunston does what he does. This team
Speaker 6: works together so well and they clinched it.
Speaker 1: It was incredible.
Speaker 2: You have to call him my Jalen. Missus Keen is
Speaker 2: called Jalen this week, Jalen. I gotta ask what was
Speaker 2: in the arena the energy that was not captured for
Speaker 2: America on TV.
Speaker 6: I think what was not captured was the moment you
Speaker 6: realize they were about to become champions after fifty three years.
Speaker 1: There was literally.
Speaker 6: Tears from New Yorkers and their faces, grown men just
Speaker 6: absolutely crying. One guy next to me was a New Yorker,
Speaker 6: stayed for the whole thing, moved to San Antonio in
Speaker 6: nineteen ninety four, so he was technically there supporting the Spurs,
Speaker 6: but even he was emotional and he said, this is
Speaker 6: pretty bittersweet.
Speaker 4: For me, for our fans.
Speaker 5: On radio, I just have to highlight the outfits that
Speaker 5: are in this studio.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 5: Rebecca Patterson, New York k Knick, orange head to toe, fantastic,
Speaker 5: Amory Horden comes in the whole thing going and the
Speaker 5: Tom's got the blink I mean.
Speaker 1: I didn't know Tom either. You were a Celtics fan.
Speaker 5: Well, we're all Nick fans today.
Speaker 4: Yes, I said that.
Speaker 7: I just sold it out, writes the paycheck. One more
Speaker 7: question for Rebecca Patterson. Here the spirit of this to me,
Speaker 7: the single miscall a New York city in the gloom
Speaker 7: was a census of twenty twenty where everybody, including the
Speaker 7: smart people, said, oh we added six hundred thousand in
Speaker 7: the MSA here, I mean, it's his bet against New
Speaker 7: York that's always been there.
Speaker 3: You know what, I think there is a human emotion
Speaker 3: that you always want to go after whoever's on top.
Speaker 3: And that could be a company, it could be a person,
Speaker 3: it could be a city. So it's easy to go
Speaker 3: after New York. But look, New York's back. People are
Speaker 3: working five days a week in the office. Real estate
Speaker 3: prices are coming back.
Speaker 4: God.
Speaker 3: I mean last week, if you tried to get around
Speaker 3: the city in a cab or even on the subway.
Speaker 4: It was packed.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rebecca, thank you so much. Rebecca Patterson with us
Speaker 2: writing for the Council Foreign Relations. A terrific podcast with
Speaker 2: Sebastian Albi