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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Right now, a

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Speaker 1: guy's out front. This is like Bob Dylan picking up

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Speaker 1: an electric guitar at Newport. A few years ago. Andrew

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Speaker 1: Holland Hoorist at City Group had the courage to come

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Speaker 1: out early and say higher rates, and everybody said, you're nuts.

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Speaker 1: Now he's not nuts. Everybody's joined the party. Reaffirmed for us,

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Speaker 1: Andrew Holland Horst, where Mr Powell's going right now, give

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Speaker 1: us that level that we will see next year. I

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Speaker 1: think we're gonna be a four percenter above and really

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Speaker 1: from the call is really more about inflation than it

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Speaker 1: is about rates. I think rates are following where inflation

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Speaker 1: is going and where inflation has been. Um, we're sitting

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Speaker 1: at eight nine percent inflation. I think there's underlying four

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Speaker 1: measures of inflation. They look like maybe somewhere between four

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Speaker 1: and six percent when you're at those kind of levels

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Speaker 1: of inflation, it's hard to think the policy rates are

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Speaker 1: going to get up to around four percent or even above.

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Speaker 1: Your colleagues in London quoted eight percent on United Kingdom

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Speaker 1: energy affected inflation. I know we're not going to get

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Speaker 1: something inflammatory like that, but as your headline to Jackson

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Speaker 1: hole that we will be surprised how difficult it is

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Speaker 1: to drop inflation down. So I think there are elements

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Speaker 1: of inflation where we might see some relief. We've seen

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Speaker 1: commodity prices move lower. Maybe we'll get some relief in

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Speaker 1: goods prices. But the core issue for the US economy

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Speaker 1: tightness in the housing market, which is maybe being relieved

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Speaker 1: by how higher mortgage rates, but tightness in labor markets.

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Speaker 1: And that's what I keep coming back to. So you

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Speaker 1: look at these core measures of underlying inflation that are

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Speaker 1: running four to six percent, then you look at underlying

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Speaker 1: wage growth, Employment cost Index, Atlanta FIT, Wage Characker, really,

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Speaker 1: however you want to look at it, We're seeing wage

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Speaker 1: growth five percent plus, and I think that that's really

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Speaker 1: the issue for the FED is a very very tight

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Speaker 1: domestic labor market, a lot of inflationary pressure, and I

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Speaker 1: think We know from history that that does prove difficult

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Speaker 1: to bring down and you usually need a significant tight

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Speaker 1: ending of financial conditions to loosen the labor market and

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Speaker 1: bring inflationary pressure down. And just tell me the balance

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Speaker 1: of risks around your few in September four on FED

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Speaker 1: funds by year end tilted to the down side to

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Speaker 1: to the upside fairly balance has that change developed in

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Speaker 1: the last month. So we keep coming back to this,

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Speaker 1: and we keep trying to reassess, you know, at what

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Speaker 1: point will we see more downside than upside risk to

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Speaker 1: policy raids? And the answer we keep coming back with

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Speaker 1: is that there's still more upside. I think at the

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Speaker 1: September fo MC meeting we have had some mixed data

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Speaker 1: on some data on the activity side that looks pretty

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Speaker 1: reassuring if you look at, for instance, five and twenty

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Speaker 1: eight thousand new jobs that were created, um, but some

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Speaker 1: data that have been uneven. So I think it's very

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Speaker 1: hard to call an individual meeting. We do think they'll

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Speaker 1: go seventy five basis points in September. I think that

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Speaker 1: the easier call, or the higher conviction call, is where

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Speaker 1: they need to get to eventually. How high do they

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Speaker 1: need to get and how long do they need to

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Speaker 1: stay there? And I think they're the risk especially relative

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Speaker 1: to the market, are very much to the upside. Remember

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Speaker 1: this is a market that is still pricing in interest

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Speaker 1: rate cuts three with the FIT only getting up to

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Speaker 1: a level maybe around three and a half three seventy

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Speaker 1: five basis points. I think the risks are definitely that

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Speaker 1: the FED goes further than that and then maintains rates

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Speaker 1: at a higher level for longer than that. Analysts have

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Speaker 1: been pushing back against this idea Andrew a little bit more,

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Speaker 1: especially as they point to certain disinflationary aspects like, for example,

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Speaker 1: used car sales, or the inventories at retailers and the

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Speaker 1: markdowns that they're planning for fall. They're all of these

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Speaker 1: forces that are leading people to ratchet down how high

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Speaker 1: they see inflation ending the year. Why do you disagree?

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Speaker 1: Why are you pushing back against that narrative? So I

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Speaker 1: think maybe we need some new definitions of core inflation,

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Speaker 1: and those are actually out there. If you look at

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta FED, they have a great dashboard of various metrics,

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Speaker 1: trimmed mean inflation, sticky price inflation, various flavors of core inflation,

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Speaker 1: one thing that those various flavors of core inflation would

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Speaker 1: do is look at something like used car prices and say,

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Speaker 1: something very specific and very different is going on with

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Speaker 1: used car prices. There was a very particular issue with

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Speaker 1: the shortage of semiconductors that pushed up used car prices

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Speaker 1: very significantly. They're still extremely high, they're still elevated. So

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Speaker 1: we're talking about changes in prices. They're coming down from

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Speaker 1: very high levels. Um So, yes, that's part of why

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Speaker 1: we saw a weaker core inflation print in the month

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Speaker 1: of a lie. We may have a similar print in August.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the wholesale use car prices, they've

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Speaker 1: come down again. Um So that might end up coming

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Speaker 1: through in the August for inflation print. But I think

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Speaker 1: you know, if you listen to Minneapolis Fed President Cash

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Speaker 1: car A last night, for instance, used to be one

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Speaker 1: of the biggest dogs amongst Fed officials, now one of

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Speaker 1: the biggest hawks. What is he doing. He's looking through

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Speaker 1: those kind of one time specific elements. Um that probably

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Speaker 1: don't tell us a lot about the underlying inflationary trend,

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Speaker 1: which is around four to six percent. And again, it's

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Speaker 1: it really comes back to the tight labor market costs

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Speaker 1: that service providers in particular have to pass on to

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Speaker 1: their customers, And so that acceleration that we've seen in wages,

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Speaker 1: you'll probably see that showing up in prices. So we

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Speaker 1: can actually accelerate in some components of inflation, even if

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Speaker 1: let's say, use car prices are coming down. Okay, even

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Speaker 1: with that, though, a lot of analysts are saying, isn't

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Speaker 1: it more likely that the Fed will raise rates to

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Speaker 1: three and a half percent three and three quarters per

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Speaker 1: cent and then hold it there for a while, be patient,

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Speaker 1: wait for some of this tightening to trickle out. Why

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Speaker 1: do you think that they will be unable to do

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Speaker 1: that or do you think it's just sort of political

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Speaker 1: pressure that if inflation remains high, they will have to

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Speaker 1: appear to be taking a harder line. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's political pressure, lease, So I really think it's fundamental economics,

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Speaker 1: basic monetary theory, the idea that you need to get

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Speaker 1: real interest rates, by which I mean the nominal interest

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Speaker 1: rate minus some measure of underlying inflation back to a

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Speaker 1: level that's at least positive. I think that's probably the

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Speaker 1: minimum that you need to get to have enough restraining

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Speaker 1: the economy to bring inflation down. UM. Their theoretical models

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Speaker 1: that kind of suggests that, but there's also just the

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Speaker 1: empirical fact the history on this that typically you need

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Speaker 1: to get that nominal policy rate up to the rate

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Speaker 1: of inflation. So if you stop at three and a

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Speaker 1: half percent in a world where inflation is running four percent,

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Speaker 1: five percent, six percent, and on a headline basis we've

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Speaker 1: been you know eight nine said, that means you're at

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Speaker 1: a very significantly negative real rate of interest um. And

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Speaker 1: that's just really important because you are not going to

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Speaker 1: slow down the economy, cool and overheating economy by showing

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Speaker 1: that economy, showing individual showing firms a negative real rate

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Speaker 1: of interest. So three and a half percent. Potentially, if

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Speaker 1: inflation comes down a lot faster than expect it for

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Speaker 1: exogenous reasons, maybe they could end up there. But I

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Speaker 1: think the more likely scenario is that inflation proves persistent,

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Speaker 1: the Fed has to do the work of bringing it down,

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Speaker 1: which means those policy rates need to move above four

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Speaker 1: percent and go to Squaze to say, we'll can't you

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Speaker 1: up with a ton of Fed officials at the end

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Speaker 1: of the week, what would you like us to watch

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Speaker 1: them what are you focused on that you really think

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Speaker 1: needs to be onst What I would love to hear John,

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Speaker 1: especially after the July off MC meeting, is some clarification

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Speaker 1: of how FED officials think about the neutral rate of

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Speaker 1: interest is what we were just talking about with Lisa.

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Speaker 1: Where do you need need to get rates to to

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Speaker 1: have zero effect on inflation? And then how much further

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Speaker 1: do you think you need to move rates to actually

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Speaker 1: bring down inflation? Now we see some of that in

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Speaker 1: their summary of economic projections, but we've also heard from

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Speaker 1: Chair Powell the kind of confusing, perplexing statement that maybe

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Speaker 1: policy rates are in a range of neutral. Now. I

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Speaker 1: think it's hard to defend that position in a world

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Speaker 1: where inflation is running much stronger. So I'd really like

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Speaker 1: to hear more clarity around that issue. You're not alone,

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Speaker 1: Andrew Holland host, Thank you, sir, as a waste from

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Speaker 1: six eight Right now on the bond analysis, Sobrato Japa

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Speaker 1: joins us head of the US rates strategy at SATION. Sobratta,

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Speaker 1: I'm absolutely fascinated by something off the radar, which is,

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Speaker 1: to me, the real yield hasn't moved given inflation that's

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Speaker 1: out there, given the idea that we may have higher

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Speaker 1: interest rates. All you're surprised that the tenure real yield

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Speaker 1: is positive zero point for six shouldn't it be higher.

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Speaker 1: I think what you've been seeing in the last few

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Speaker 1: weeks is exactly what we saw ahead of the June

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Speaker 1: f O MC meeting, where the market started to pricing uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, much higher inflation expectations. So the move higher

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Speaker 1: in tenure yields this time around is mostly all because

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Speaker 1: of a sharp price in inflation expectations. And this is

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Speaker 1: not just a US phenomena. You're seeing inflation expectations rights

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Speaker 1: quite meaningfully across the globe and especially in Europe and

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Speaker 1: the UK, and you know, the break evens in in

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Speaker 1: the in the US are also starting to widen in

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Speaker 1: tandem with what you're seeing globally, So the market is

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Speaker 1: starting to price in perhaps the potential for inflation to

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Speaker 1: remain persistently high over the longer run, which is a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a paradigm shift, because for the last

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Speaker 1: couple of months, the market was giving the Fed a

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Speaker 1: lot of credibility and being able to bring down inflation

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Speaker 1: patients by raising right. A delicate question and maybe off

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Speaker 1: your remit, but it's seen through yield. Is Chairman Powell

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Speaker 1: losing credibility because the United Kingdom and continental Europe are

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Speaker 1: falling apart. I think it's definitely making the FEDS job

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Speaker 1: a lot harder because there's a lot of externalities that

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Speaker 1: they have to factor in. For instance, they have to

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Speaker 1: take into account what's going to happen in China, there's

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Speaker 1: a meaningful surround in growth there, what's happening in Europe

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Speaker 1: with the potential for uh, you know, a winter that's

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Speaker 1: going to be very very rough and much higher inflation

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Speaker 1: in Europe. So in some respects, you know, the remit

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Speaker 1: for the FEDS not just the US, but also what's

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Speaker 1: happening globally and globally inflation is a big concern, so

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have to factor that in into their into

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Speaker 1: how they look at the markets in the US. And

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Speaker 1: it's the same for the recession. You look at recession

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Speaker 1: probabilities there rising a lot faster in Europe and in

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Speaker 1: the UK they actually have a contraction pencylan for next year.

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Speaker 1: So those are the kinds of things that Fetcher Powell

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Speaker 1: has to weigh into into his his equation for what

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Speaker 1: he does with the with the US as far as

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Speaker 1: policy is concerned. In addition to what we're seeing in

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Speaker 1: the data in the US and inflation trajectory in the US,

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Speaker 1: what is present the county. Well, this is a backdrop

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Speaker 1: right now. They've got a really really tough hand for

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Speaker 1: what do they do. You know, it's very very tough

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Speaker 1: one that's sort of coming you know, from from there

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Speaker 1: behind the Fed, if you will, In raising rates, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're trying to play catch up. There's gonna be fifty

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Speaker 1: basis boundary hike at the at the next day CB

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Speaker 1: meeting perhaps you know, the Fed markets presing in nearly

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Speaker 1: one point one and a quarter percent of hikes by

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Speaker 1: the end of this year, so they're going to have

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Speaker 1: to deliver a much more aggressive path of rate hikes.

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Speaker 1: But like you point out John earlier, it's a very

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Speaker 1: good point, is that as they're raising rates, you know,

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Speaker 1: the currency is actually going to continue to weaken because

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Speaker 1: of the backdrop on session and a meaningful slow down

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Speaker 1: in growth and the risks associated with the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: So it really really is a complicated, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: option optimization function for the e C because it's not

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Speaker 1: just about inflation, but it's also about again externalities. In

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Speaker 1: the United States, there's a huge debate brewing about whether

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Speaker 1: the Fed can raise rates to a certain level and

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Speaker 1: then hold them there to see how long it will

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Speaker 1: take to get inflation down, or whether they have to

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Speaker 1: raise rates to a somewhat more punitive level. And we've

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Speaker 1: heard that even this morning. Yesterday we heard that with

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Speaker 1: Jan Hattis. This morning, we heard this from Jim Karen

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Speaker 1: on the Antis camp and then Andrew holl And Horst saying,

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Speaker 1: no way, they've got to go much further than that.

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Speaker 1: Where do you stand. I think the market is extraordinarily

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Speaker 1: efficiently priced in for what the Feds said they're going

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Speaker 1: to do for the next couple of years. So I

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Speaker 1: think Fed funds rate gets to around maybe three and

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Speaker 1: a quarter percent by the end of this year uh,

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Speaker 1: and then perhaps to three and a half percent to

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Speaker 1: to three point seven by xture. You know, to me,

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Speaker 1: this whole argument that they should, you know, hike well

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Speaker 1: beyond four uh and then sort of that's the only

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Speaker 1: way they're gonna be able to reign an inflation doesn't

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Speaker 1: make a lot of sense because if they do that,

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Speaker 1: then there's a potential that that things break the economy

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Speaker 1: in the US is still is quite brittle. So if

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Speaker 1: they do tighten policy quite aggressively, there's a there's a

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Speaker 1: greater risk that we could go to a much deeper recession,

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Speaker 1: in which case they have to cut rates and pivot

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Speaker 1: a lot faster. If they go because sort of gradually

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Speaker 1: get you around three and a half to three point

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Speaker 1: seven five percent sometime nection, then he prates, you know, steady.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a much better outcome than aggressively hiking

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Speaker 1: rison then have to cut soon after they get well

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Speaker 1: beyond four percent before we let you go. I'd love

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Speaker 1: to get your sense of where you think that inflation

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Speaker 1: is going to end the year CPI in the United States.

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Speaker 1: You know, that's that's a tough one. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: really hard to know. I think you know. The trajectory

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Speaker 1: I think, broadly speaking, is for inflation to continue to

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Speaker 1: gradually decline. But it's really the the majority of the

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Speaker 1: declines you're gonna see are going to be in in

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Speaker 1: upcoming years, not so much this year. What the Fed

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Speaker 1: will be looking to see is if we actually see um,

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Speaker 1: you know, inflation starting to trend lower month after month.

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Speaker 1: I think that would be a win for this year Spantra,

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Speaker 1: thank you stan Sekan. Difficult time for Europe and the

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Speaker 1: a CP difficult time for fe Pam will hear from

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Speaker 1: him on Friday. Right now. On the American labor economy,

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Speaker 1: Tom Purcelli joins the chief you as economist at RBC

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Speaker 1: Capital Markets. Tom, I want a dovetail with another shop.

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Speaker 1: This came out moments ago from Kalenific over at Goldman Sachs,

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Speaker 1: who's an equity strategist and he posits good equity markets

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Speaker 1: forget about that because of declining inflation. Do you at

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Speaker 1: RBC Capital Markets perceive declining inflation? Yeah, we do. We

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Speaker 1: think inflation will slow and we think, you know, you

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Speaker 1: can start to see some slowing show up right around

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Speaker 1: the turn of the year at the core level. Headline

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Speaker 1: is obviously a completely different animal. Um, We'll see what

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Speaker 1: happens with energy prices, which you know, our our house

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Speaker 1: call is that they will be on the rise over

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Speaker 1: the coming months. But at the core level, yeah, we do.

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Speaker 1: We think that will wind up slowing down before the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. You can have to get through

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Speaker 1: this like one more month of sort of unfavorable year

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Speaker 1: ago comp but once you get beyond that, we think

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Speaker 1: that some of the sort of the price pressure that

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Speaker 1: we're starting to see, the downward price pressure will start

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Speaker 1: to show through. Again, Let's be clear everyone, it's not

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Speaker 1: going to be in something that's sort of notable, meaningful way, UM,

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Speaker 1: but you will start to see that process slow again,

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Speaker 1: even as early as before the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: and then as we roll into um the next next year.

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Speaker 1: I think it's really reasonable to think that core inflation

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Speaker 1: could surprise people um to to the downside. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of price pressure that is in the

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Speaker 1: pipeline right on the downward price pressure in the pipeline UM,

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Speaker 1: and we think that will start to show up. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's certainly with Mirko Klinovic over a Jape, and work

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Speaker 1: In seems to believe as well. Still, others say, we'll

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Speaker 1: look at wages and how they're increasing, look at some

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Speaker 1: of these stickier elements, look at food, look at gas,

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Speaker 1: which is re emerging as a pretty significant flash ary headwind.

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Speaker 1: How do you factor those things in? When do you

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Speaker 1: start to think maybe I'm wrong and the FED does

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Speaker 1: need to go further. Then perhaps some people think so,

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Speaker 1: So this is a this is a really great question,

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Speaker 1: and I think that it's it's important because I I

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Speaker 1: can see a plausible scenario where headline prices are remaining

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of stable at high levels. If you

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Speaker 1: do get this, this drift higher from an energy price perspective,

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Speaker 1: of food prices UM continue to remain from although we're

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Speaker 1: let's be clear, we are seeing signs that food prices

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Speaker 1: are slowing down. But again, just to your point, like

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Speaker 1: just for just for fun, um, let's just say that

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Speaker 1: all of that does happen. UM. You can see a

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Speaker 1: scenario where headline prices remain, you know, again relatively high,

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Speaker 1: but core prices slow. That's a really tricky spot for

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Speaker 1: the FED. And this is something we've been talking about

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Speaker 1: and writing about for quite some time. The FED needs

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Speaker 1: to unhitch their wagon from headline prices. They can't control

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Speaker 1: that stuff. They can't control food or energy price is UM.

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Speaker 1: And I know it's it's going to be a question of, hey,

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Speaker 1: but what about inflation expectations? Yeah, but I get that.

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Speaker 1: But if inflation expectations are rising because the things that

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Speaker 1: the Fed can control, UM, then I think the FED

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Speaker 1: needs to make a more of a distinction in that

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Speaker 1: regard UM. And so we would actually argue that the

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Speaker 1: FED is supposed to be really focused on core. Powell

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Speaker 1: and others within the FED have even recently said that

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Speaker 1: that's what they're supposed to be um following. But I

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Speaker 1: think they've just got caught up into this this loop

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Speaker 1: of they've really only talked about howline prices. I think

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Speaker 1: that's going to come back to haunt them. Um if

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Speaker 1: you actually don't see headline prices slow with core, which

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Speaker 1: is what we expect. Okay, so let's say the FED

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Speaker 1: comes out with this nuanced message that you're putting out there,

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Speaker 1: which is this is inflationary kind of feel gaining wind

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Speaker 1: next year and giving them more space. If they say that,

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Speaker 1: doesn't the market rip And this is what I asked

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Speaker 1: Laura Heinel, and this is sort of the conundrum. Financial

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Speaker 1: conditions will move against them, especially considering the expectation for

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Speaker 1: a hawkish speech from j Pell. Yeah, I think that's

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Speaker 1: I think that's totally fair in the in the immediate term.

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Speaker 1: But let's just be clear, there's a lot of challenges

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Speaker 1: in the backdrop right now. Right Like, uh, I know

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Speaker 1: some people who keep on latching onto this idea of that, Hey,

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Speaker 1: the payroll report you know, showed acceleration in job games.

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Speaker 1: I get it, but but doesn't make sense, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: so I think I heard Tom earlier say, you know, like, look,

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Speaker 1: labor is a lagging indicator, and he's right, and it's

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Speaker 1: funny to me that that people just seem to sort

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Speaker 1: of lose that narrative. So, but let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: acceleration in jobs, which people are still talking about. Two

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Speaker 1: weeks you know after the reporter for us whatever it's been,

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Speaker 1: jobless claims are up. Even if you make the adjustment

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Speaker 1: for the for for the sort of the seasonal factor thing,

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Speaker 1: there's still up there about thirty percent from the lows.

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Speaker 1: That tends to be consistent with UM potential UH seeing

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Speaker 1: job losses UM shortly thereafter UM. Also, it happens to

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Speaker 1: coincide with you know, countless companies talking about the idea

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Speaker 1: of laying people off too. I think you have to

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Speaker 1: keep in mind that the I S M s UM,

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Speaker 1: all the labor indicators within there are now below break

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Speaker 1: even UM. The labor differential from the conference board that's

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Speaker 1: now starting to roll over UM hours worked, hours worked

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Speaker 1: are actually sliding. It's not something you would expect to

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Speaker 1: see if labor was actually that tight, and that's actually

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Speaker 1: taking average weekly earnings with it. I mean, there's a

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Speaker 1: host of things, and by the way, there's more, but

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Speaker 1: I'll just say this one last thing. The cherry on

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Speaker 1: top of all that is volume of spending is slowing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I don't know what more people

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Speaker 1: need to see, need to understand that actually things are

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Speaker 1: squishier than is appreciated. Tell him on the same page

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Speaker 1: with you, as David Rosenberg, who partitions inflation like you

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Speaker 1: do wage growth. And David Rosenberg publishes this morning that

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Speaker 1: housing is approaching what he calls a tail spin is

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Speaker 1: the ginormous shock of the end of the year, which

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Speaker 1: is the housing micro dynamics fold over to rent dynamics

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Speaker 1: which flat or even stabilize. Yeah. So look, I think

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Speaker 1: it's really easy to say that housing is in a

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Speaker 1: recession right now. I mean, I don't think that's a

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Speaker 1: heroic call in any way. I think most people probably

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Speaker 1: appreciate that, or many people are, I think are growing

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Speaker 1: to appreciate that. I think prices are going to start

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Speaker 1: to fall um outright decline. I think that could actually

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Speaker 1: happen again before the even before we get to the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. These things take time, though, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's funny, I I've sort of been chuckling. I guess

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Speaker 1: Macro is such in focus and and and maybe these

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Speaker 1: are conversations that we should have been happening having with

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Speaker 1: people over the you know, the couple of decades that

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Speaker 1: I've been doing this. These things take time to develop. Um.

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Speaker 1: If if it's already in front of you, right like,

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Speaker 1: if everything that I'm talking about is so uh, or

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Speaker 1: if if if housing is falling into recession, the consumers

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Speaker 1: already slowing, then it's too late, right like, It's like

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Speaker 1: you have no leading. You know, there's no lead there.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking about things that take time to develop.

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Speaker 1: Um and it's it seems pretty clear to us that

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Speaker 1: we're moving in that direction, that things are slowing more

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Speaker 1: meaningfully than has appreciated. Some of these things out tom

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Speaker 1: are the objective, that the objective. And I wonder when

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Speaker 1: we get to that more problematic phase. And I just

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Speaker 1: wonder how high the hurdle is for not for this

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Speaker 1: FETE to cut, but for this fet to pause pause

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Speaker 1: I I I Jonathan, I agree with that. I think

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Speaker 1: that the real risk here. Look, we have our view right,

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Speaker 1: our view is at the FED basically stops by the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. I mean, basically, you're gonna be

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Speaker 1: a grief fifty and the hiking cycle is going to

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Speaker 1: be done. Um. But I think the real risk, and

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Speaker 1: let me be clear, I think that's absolutely the right move.

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Speaker 1: You know, get policy into so somewhat restrictive territory. Let

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Speaker 1: that marinate, um, and then I think, you know, we'll

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Speaker 1: we'll be in fine shape next year, relatively much. And

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Speaker 1: make the mistake things are gonna slow. But the real

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Speaker 1: risk is that the FED does not unhitch its wagon

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Speaker 1: from inflation, particularly headline prices, and that they just keep

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Speaker 1: on going. And I think you guys are going to

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Speaker 1: Jackson home. By the way, I'm disappointed I'm not speaking

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Speaker 1: to you in Jackson. I was hoping to see a

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Speaker 1: bear rolling around beyond you. I think the one thing

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Speaker 1: that people time I heard how nervous you are about

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Speaker 1: this is hysterical to me. By the way, if you

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Speaker 1: want to see bears, come up to where I live

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Speaker 1: in Westchester. There's bears everywhere. It's actually amazing. But I'll

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Speaker 1: have you up for drinks one daytime. Well, we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about bears. So I think the one thing that is

430
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: really compelling, and the thing that I think we really

431
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: need to hold the Fed their feet to the fire

432
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 1: on is what do they really want to see from inflation?

433
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 1: Because if you're waiting for inflation to get to two,

434
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 1: this is gonna be funds are gonna be meaningful higher

435
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: than anyone appreciates. I don't think that that's what they're

436
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 1: going to do. I think that they know better than that,

437
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: and I think they just need to sort of sell

438
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 1: that narrative. But I think if that's act, if I'm

439
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 1: wrong and they actually keep on hiking rates, the hiking

440
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 1: cycle will go on for meaningfully longer than anyone appreciates,

441
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 1: and the recession will be meaningfully deeper than anyone appreciates.

442
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 1: Tom grat to catch out to plastic of obviously capital

443
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: markets welcome back. Anytime I wanted to talk to one person,

444
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get upset here and Julian Robertson one person yesterday,

445
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: I wanted to talk to Douglas cass It kiddered Peabody

446
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 1: a million years ago when Julian Robertson out of the Navy,

447
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 1: out of Chapel Hill said I'm going to go to

448
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: Kidder Peabody and he was restless, dout cass. How restless

449
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,199
Speaker 1: was the giant those many years ago. Well, let me

450
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 1: explain my relationship with him. Tom. At least I was

451
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: only twenty two years old when I met Julian Um.

452
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 1: I had just graduated with an NBA at Warden, and

453
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 1: my first job on Wall Street was at ten Hanover

454
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 1: Square as an housing analyst a Kinder Peabody and Company.

455
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: And now Julian had a small office just like me,

456
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: actually is right next to me. He was working out

457
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: of the New York City office of Webster Management, which

458
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: was the investment management home of Kidder, which was run

459
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: out of Boston and headed by a guy, Gerald Curtis.

460
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 1: Working with him in New York City were two young

461
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 1: kids about my age, Tom Dean and Thorpe mackenzie, and

462
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 1: an older marketing guy. At least he seemed older. Maybe

463
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: he was twenty eight years old Alan Fleming, whose son

464
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: Peter would a team up with John Mcaron to become

465
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,719
Speaker 1: the number one doubles team in tennis in the world. Anyway,

466
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: he was really nice to meet Julian. We probably chatted

467
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: five times a day. I really wanted to manage money ultimately,

468
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: so I was always picking his brain. I remember he

469
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 1: was kind enough with Ralph the Nunzio, who was then

470
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 1: president of Killer at the time, to sponsor me for

471
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 1: admission to the Princeton Club of New York the year

472
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: after we met. I also remember in the beginning he

473
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 1: forgot my name. All the time. He called me Tiger,

474
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 1: and I would later find out that he called everyone

475
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 1: he got the names Tiger, and for that reason he

476
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 1: named fun Tiger Management. But I have one interesting analytical

477
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,959
Speaker 1: conferencation with him that I don't want to miss. I

478
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: was a kidder for you or so, which is sort

479
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 1: of time, and I'm gonna time. I'm gonna frame his intense,

480
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 1: his analytical intensity. At the time, I was kidder as

481
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: housing analyst, and I wrote an extensive see industry review

482
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 1: on a very hot group in the market, the mobile

483
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: home and recreation vehicle industry, and not surprisingly Tom I

484
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: was negative on the group and recommending short sale. Anyway,

485
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: Julian's group owned the stocks Champion Homebuilders, Skyline, Redman, and

486
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 1: Fleetwood enterprises, and I vividly remember his intensity. He would

487
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: bring in sandwiches for lunch with uninvited Plopham in my office.

488
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: During that period of his analysts and two other Cell

489
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: side analysts grilled me. They were bullish to debate me continuously,

490
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: and he ended up selling the stocks on my advice,

491
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: and the stocks plummeted with red men and Champion almost bankruptcy.

492
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 1: But from there on he respected me, and he remembered

493
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 1: my name, Douggie so much. So much of it, Doug

494
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: cast is about what Sebastian Mallaby wrote about. It's about

495
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 1: the charity he and Josie and and and everything he

496
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: did for New York. Doug, How did he get from

497
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: the office next to you to what Sebastian Mallaby wrote

498
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: about in that book? How did he make the jump

499
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 1: to something called a hedge fund? It's a great, great question,

500
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: I think the key to his success. And it's something

501
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: Stanley Druccon Miller always reminds me and others of May

502
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: We May West had this line. She used to say,

503
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: too much of a good thing can be wonderful. Julian

504
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 1: made big bets after doing comprehensive and exhaustive analysis and research,

505
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 1: um uh and and I think that that is the answer.

506
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 1: He believed in his analysis, put his money where his

507
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: mouth was, and of course he wasn't uncommon had this

508
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: uncommon ability to find talent, but like all of us,

509
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: he wasn't perfect. A good example was Bill Wong, one

510
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 1: of his disciples, who famously blew up our goos. So

511
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: that was a blender. Let's get well. I'm just thinking

512
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: about the legacy of someone who redefined many ways that

513
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: people believed in the hedge fund industry. Doug, what do

514
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 1: you think his legacy in addition to all his tiger

515
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: cubs that he seated and helped to support, what is

516
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: his legacy as imprint on the business of French funds.

517
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: I honestly think as a humanist, his legacy was not

518
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: making all that money. May We started with eight and

519
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: a half million dollars in ninety it became twenty two

520
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: billion by I don't think that was it. I think

521
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: that he transferred his generosity, his charity, and his philanthropic

522
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 1: style and endeavors to his disciples, Griffin Coleman, have Reson

523
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: Lafonte Mandel, and I think that that's his legacy, his

524
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: charitable Doug out of time, Duck Cass, thank you so

525
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: much from Ses Partners. Julian Robertson, the billionaire Tiger Management

526
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: founder who became one of his generation's most successful hedge

527
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: funds managers and also a mentor to a wave of

528
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 1: investors known as Tiger cubs, died yesterday at the age

529
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 1: of ninety. And I've been on Wall Street for thirty years,

530
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: and to me, he was the father of the hedge

531
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: fund business. I had one meeting with him, and I

532
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: remember clearly, Uh, Tiger was just an absolute monster account.

533
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 1: You had to have your tentacles into a fewer cell

534
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: side analysts because you had to be in the information

535
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 1: flow when they would certainly were. John Griffin, he's a

536
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: founder of Bluebridge Capital. He as a chairman of the

537
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: Robert Hood Foundation. UH joins us. He is one of

538
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: those aforementioned Tiger cubs. John, thanks so much for taking

539
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: the time. I really appreciate it. Um. I'd love to

540
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: get from you your perspective. I know you guys are

541
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: very tight the folks that worked for Julian. What's something

542
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: that we should know about Julian that maybe we don't know? Well,

543
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: you said it best. You had one meeting with Julian,

544
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: and you remember, Um, since his passing. I've had hundreds

545
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 1: and hundreds of females saying the same thing. Um. He

546
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 1: was a larger than life presence. He had a passionate

547
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 1: love of of of of people. UM and I think

548
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 1: his his his love of business and investing really came

549
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: um from from getting to know people. He was someone

550
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: who I met I was twenty two years old. I

551
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: met him for the first time in maineteen eighty six.

552
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: UH wor getting an investment bank and I met him

553
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 1: and I was immediately taken um by every aspect about him.

554
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 1: He wanted to talk to me about my life, what

555
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: I was interested in. He uh, he wanted to know

556
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 1: if um I would like investing. I asked him what

557
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 1: his investment style was, and I'm sure you've heard this

558
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: many times before, but he said it simply. He said,

559
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,239
Speaker 1: a tiger. We looked for the very best companies and

560
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: we go along those and then we spend time trying

561
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: to find the absolute worst companies that we think won't

562
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: be really worth anything, and we short those um and

563
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: if we can't make money that way, then we should

564
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: go to something else. On You are also a teacher

565
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 1: at our joint alum, the University of Virginia. I have

566
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: several friends who've taken and he's still the University of Virginia. Paul.

567
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: Don't worry, um, Paul being a little bit of business

568
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: school snob here whatever. Um. But John, you you teach

569
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 1: a lot of this kind of methodology to to a

570
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: lot of my friends, of course, to a lot of

571
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: University of Virginia students, among other students in the United States.

572
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:24,479
Speaker 1: I'm curious if you can dig in a little bit

573
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 1: to the methodology that Julian Robertson taught you. Sure, and

574
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: it comes back to people. So Julian's view was, you know,

575
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: you can't really learned much by by just reading his

576
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: outside you know, analyst report. He wanted people in the

577
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: field talking to competitors, UM customers, suppliers, former UM, former workers,

578
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: and and see if by really intense UM research, which

579
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: often came just from conversations, you could find an investment

580
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 1: that looked UM different to the world than than than

581
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 1: what you had. And Julian loved it. I mean this

582
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: is before UH computers and contact. And he had two

583
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 1: wagon wheels of rolodexes. So imagine massive roadexes that are

584
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: so big that they can't fit on your desk, and John,

585
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: many many, many of our folks out there probably don't

586
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 1: even know what a rolodex is, but I get you.

587
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: He's talking about me little cards with people's names on them,

588
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: and he would and they would be alphabetical, and they

589
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 1: would be by industry. And he had a photographic memory

590
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,959
Speaker 1: for who to call on, what type of company, in

591
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 1: what industry, and ask questions. And the questions, um were

592
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: also what he was known for. Okay, you lacked this company,

593
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 1: what's your what company do you hate? What's your least

594
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: favorite company? And I know it's like asking you your

595
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: least favorite child, but I need to know. And that

596
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: was his methodology. It was a lot of in field work,

597
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: bottoms up fundamental analysis. John talked to us about the

598
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: philanthropy of Julian Robertson Sure, very early on. Julian and

599
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 1: Uh asked me to go visit Paul Jones, Paul Tutor Jones,

600
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 1: who had founded robin Hood two years early at the

601
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: age of I believe thirty three. He said, Paul's doing

602
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: something in philanthropy. Go down there and talk to him.

603
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 1: So I went down and Paul told me what he

604
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 1: was doing, suggested we joined Forces. I came back and

605
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: said to Uh Jillian that he wants to join Forces,

606
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: and Julian said, nope, I want to do the Tiger Foundation.

607
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: Same way. We're gonna use our analysts to go out

608
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: in the field. We're gonna have them meet the companies.

609
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: We're gonna have them reef I mean the not for profits.

610
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: We're gonna have them research them like that we research companies.

611
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: And that was the start of the Tiger Foundation. So

612
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: how do you think Julian's legacy is really going to

613
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: stay alive? Of course, we know two hundred firms or

614
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: I think something along two hundred firms is tied back

615
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: to Julian Robertson's teaching. So I'm curious how we passed

616
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: that on. I think it's passed on in the way

617
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 1: he treats people, the way he treated people. I think

618
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,479
Speaker 1: it's the way it's passed on. And now you know,

619
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: unassailable integrity was always his guide. I think it's passed

620
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: on um in in in being competitive but never losing

621
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: the people asked of the business. I mean, he was

622
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 1: just a great person who treated people so well. People

623
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: have had one meeting with him, remember the meeting and

624
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: remember it for a really good positive reason. Uh. And

625
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: and I think I think that's the legacy. It transcends

626
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: just the investment UM and it it It's uh captured

627
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: in his letters, which may be published at some point.

628
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 1: It's captured in UM the chapter in the book by

629
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: Sebaster Mallaby called Big Cat. It's captured still in these

630
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: classes at u v a UM and the students who

631
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: studied his methods and he spoke. I taught twenty years

632
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: at v a UM, and Julian spoke at eighteen of

633
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 1: those eighteen years. Julian was the featured speaker. Great stuff, John,

634
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 1: I mean, you know the un Regine. That's a nice

635
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: connection there. You've got, you know, John Griffin, Lee Ainslee,

636
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,479
Speaker 1: Mike Pausic. I mean guys like that that have been,

637
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 1: you know, in this hedge fund business over the last

638
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 1: thirty years. Uh. There's a nice pipeline there from the

639
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 1: the comp School, University of Rerginia. John Griffin, thank you

640
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Really appreciated. President, CEO and

641
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: founder of Blue Ridge Capital, also chairman of the Robin

642
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 1: Hood Foundation. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten a m.

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day

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Speaker 1: from six to nine am for insight from the best

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Speaker 1: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com,

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Speaker 1: and of course, on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene, and

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Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg