WEBVTT - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Raiders/Rams TNF, Baker’s Best, Week 14 ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’ 0:00:01.240 --> 0:00:07.440 The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel 0:00:07.480 --> 0:00:10.319 Football Seasons in full gear. No better place to get 0:00:10.360 --> 0:00:14.400 in on the action than Fan Duel. FanDuel app is safe. 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:17.320 You get paid fast, A lot of ways to play 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:21.279 the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:25.200 lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action. Same 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:27.920 game parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo code 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:39.560 Colin and download the Fan Duel app today. Welcome to 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:45.960 another instant reaction on what was three hours of absolute drek. 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:56.840 Baker Mayfield, television star, big time personality, saved the broadcasts, 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:03.080 saved a night of dreary football. My takeaway was, I 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:06.240 was absolutely rooting for Baker Mayfield to drive at ninety 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:08.959 eight yards for a winning touchdown. I'm in the story business. 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:12.880 It's a great story, and you know everybody knows my 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:18.679 history with Baker Mayfield. I think that's honestly the most 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:22.880 impressive win of his career. And I'm dead serious. He 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:25.800 won a playoff game. Go back, and look at that 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.920 Cleveland roster. The old line was like number two in 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:35.759 the league. Nick Chubb, David and Joku Good receivers, Miles Garrett. 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.160 That was a really really good roster and they beat 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:43.679 kind of a old big Ben you know, kind of 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:50.600 a wobbly Steeler team. This was impressive. Ben Scronic was 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:53.720 his go to receiver tonight, a second year pro who 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:57.000 was fourth or fifth on the depth chart, missing multiple 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:04.840 offensive lineman. That's impressive. To walk into a city, new playbook, 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:09.360 new coach, new system, new teammates. I mean, nobody really knows. 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:15.040 Baker Fist bumped a few guys. I mean, Kirk Curvestreet said, 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:17.440 I've been in town. He goes like, I here Tuesday 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:19.799 for a speaking engagement. I've been in town longer than 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:24.320 Baker Mayfield to walk in and kind of you could 0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:27.560 tell throughout the course of the game Baker Mayfield was 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:34.400 just getting the information from Sean McVeigh and instantly relaying 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:38.880 it to his team. And I imagine as Baker moved 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:41.399 to the line of scrimmage, McVeigh was telling him kind 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:44.000 of what the play was going to precisely look like 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:47.600 Raiders had because of Max Crosmy a decent pass rush. 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:52.520 It's not a great defense, but that loss, even by 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:56.040 Raiders standards, worst of the year for them. They're now 0:02:56.360 --> 0:03:00.160 probably on the outside looking in for the playoffs as 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.440 they end the year with the Niners and the Chiefs, 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:07.320 so they really really needed this win. But that was 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.600 really impressive by Baker Mayfield. The other thing is you 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:15.760 don't really I mean, what makes sports is the stories. 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:19.720 I mean, everybody loves their home team and everybody dislikes 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:23.320 the rival to the home team. But the reason we 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:27.000 watch games beyond our favorite team or the team we 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:30.560 grew up with is the drama, the chance for upsets. 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:34.480 I mean, the Raiders were hot, the Raiders were healthier. 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:37.440 The fact the Raiders could not pick up a first 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:41.880 down on third and one. You don't deserve to be 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:44.120 a playoff team. You don't deserve to win that game. 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:48.720 But what made tonight special for Baker is a great story. 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:53.240 A lot of his faults and problems are his, and 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.640 let's be honest, he couldn't step to the podium for 0:03:56.720 --> 0:04:01.440 his weekly press conference in Cleveland without hissing somebody off right, 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:04.320 Like he just wasn't quite ready to be the face 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:07.240 of a franchise. He had more commercials than touchdown passes. 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:10.560 Seemingly he didn't have great judgment. It was my knock 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:12.640 coming out of college and in the end, he just 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.200 ticked off too many people. Andrew Berry, the coach, teammates 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.680 handed unraveled. And then he goes to Carolina and you 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:23.560 know they want to see Sam Donold play, but your 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.680 hand to root for Baker Mayfield tonight. Come on. I mean, 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:30.120 the reason we watched this stuff is upsets and drama 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.960 and stories outside of our favorite teams we grew up with. 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:36.159 That was a great story. And not only was it 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:40.479 a great story because of the multiple holding calls on 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:44.320 the Rams tonight, Baker was twenty two of thirty five 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:49.360 two hundred and thirty yards a touchdown, no interception. I'm 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:52.800 not exactly sure he had at least two, but I 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:57.880 think three other really nice completions that were negated due 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:01.400 to holding calls. Baker's oll was throwing a pretty good ball. 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:03.600 When he can set his feet clean pocket, that's never 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:06.400 been his problem. You know, he gets a little squirrely 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:10.520 sometimes when he's moving. You know, he rushes things his judgment. 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:13.880 But if he can set and throw, I mean, you know, 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.600 he was a number one pick for a reason. Set 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:19.279 and throw, let it rip. He can be accurate. But 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:22.039 you know there's sometimes is this ever true for you? 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:26.480 Sometimes the more I get into golf, start taking lessons 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.680 or I start playing more, my golf gets worse. I'm 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:33.240 overthinking and then I'll take like six months off. I'll 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.200 go golf for the first time in the summer. It 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:37.240 happened this year in Rhode Island. I played the best 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:40.760 round of golf I've played like four years. I just 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.560 went out and played. I didn't overthink it. Baker was 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:49.120 playing tonight on adrenaline, little anxiety, a lot of nerves. 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.640 Didn't overthink it. McVay said, here's the play. Re let it, 0:05:54.160 --> 0:06:00.000 step back and let it rip. And as impressive. I'm serious, 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.440 that's about as impressive a moment that Baker Mayfield's had. 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:06.880 I mean, listen, we all know the playoff win in 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.600 Cleveland for people in Ohio is going to go down 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.919 as a very memorable day. That's a really good team, 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.360 has a really good old line, that was a really 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:22.680 good roster. This Ram offense is I mean, Baker Mayfield 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:27.280 made the Rams watchable. You know, we saw this a 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:28.880 couple of nights ago. I was thinking about this. With 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:33.919 Brady struggled and then his last two drives, you know, 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:37.320 the defense goes into a little pre event the defense 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:39.800 is on the field, you start giving up, you know, 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:43.320 seven to ten twelve yards defense on the field. End 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:47.480 of a game. Defense gets tired. Suddenly, the defense, you know, 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:51.159 the Saints against Brady, the Raiders against Baker, gets a 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:54.640 little more vulnerable, a little more gassed. You're asking you know, 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.039 you're asking these big guys to be on the field 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.720 those last two drives after three and a half hours. 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:04.600 Brady and Baker Mayfield. When's the last time they were 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:09.040 mentioned in the same sentence? But you had a root 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:12.680 for Baker tonight. I mean that was fun. It really 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:15.520 was a lot like that Buccaneer Saints game with Brady 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:20.720 just dreck until the final two drives. It really was. 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.640 I think from this point forward, anytime you mentioned Baker, 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:29.880 you should also simultaneously mentioned Tom Brady. That's the new 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:34.800 rule in broadcasting. Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady. 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:37.080 Where'd you go? Baker? You know we live in the 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:40.640 same hometown. Now, could you invite him on the volume? 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:44.600 If an excellent guest, I'm not sure he'd except that 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:47.920 he's going to be busy actually learning the playbook. Isn't 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:51.240 that amazing? I mean think about speaking of Brady. When 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:56.320 Brady moved to Tampa, he literally held secret practices that 0:07:56.360 --> 0:08:00.600 were taped by a helicopter like ten in ink Lee 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:04.960 trying to learn the playbook with a loaded roster and 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:08.360 twelve games. In all those practices, Brady was seven and five. 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:11.440 The protection was bad. He was screaming at teammates. Baker 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:14.720 Mayfield is in town with a bad roster. He doesn't know, 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:19.800 he can't spell Ben Scronic his best receiver. He doesn't 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:22.160 know where he to college. He's never seen him play. 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.400 They've probably never run, you know, they've never run in 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:29.560 game routes, obviously, And Baker Mayfield was pretty accurate tonight 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:33.680 when he had reasonable time to throw. It's pretty accurate. 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:39.800 And Raider fans I've supported all year, you earned that l. 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:45.280 You absolutely earned every inch of that L. That was bad. 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:47.960 And I've been on the Raiders bandwagon all year. That 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:54.880 was awful. That was just awful. Tip of the cap 0:08:55.679 --> 0:09:03.360 to Baker Mayfield all right. Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman, 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:06.880 CCO Action Network All odds provided by FanDuel. By the way, 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:09.640 before we get into our picks, I think a really 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:13.240 fascinating situation I'm gonna throw this at you. So I 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.400 do mock drafts all day. I got no life, right, 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:21.880 and so in this league, often you will get really 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:26.559 good players having a down year. They get hurt bad system. 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:30.320 Rarely do you get average players having a great year. 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:37.160 Geno Smith, I am betting against him next year. Duplicating 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:41.720 this right, So you're Seattle, you're the GM. They have 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:46.320 two first two seconds, a third, two fourths, So those 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:52.480 are seven high quality picks. Do you would you give 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:57.600 up a third for Jordan Love who will be twenty 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:05.040 five bigger then Bryce Young, more talented than CJ. Stroud, 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:09.079 and more season than all of them. I would give 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:11.920 up a third for him. Still have two first, two 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:15.640 seconds to fourth. I wouldn't draft a quarterback because I 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:17.679 think here's what I think, Chad. If you look at 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:22.840 that roster, they have two needs nose tackle. Their first 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:27.679 pick Georgia looks like the next Fletcher Cox, and then 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:31.200 you can argue center or another receiver. It's a good 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:36.240 center and wide receiver draft. Until about late second. I 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.120 wouldn't draft a quarterback. I would go get Jordan Love 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:42.800 with a third. Been in the league. Good coaching behind 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:47.800 a star? Is he any less talented than CJ. Stroud. 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.640 He's five inches four inches bigger and heavier by twenty 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:56.840 five pounds than Bryce Jump. What would you do as GM? 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:04.160 Quarterback is such an important position in the NFL you 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:09.439 have that much draft capital. I would be as aggressive 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:16.880 as possible. Package Geno Smith, maybe in number one, maybe 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:20.520 in number two. Try to get as close to the 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:24.520 top of the draft as possible and get a player 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:28.240 at quarterback who you believe is going to be your 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:32.800 generational talent. I would not do it with Jordan Love. 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:37.080 I think there's enough tape on Jordan Love from practices 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:41.839 and preseason games for GMS to understand who he is 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:45.920 at this point, and also know that Aaron Rodgers when 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:51.520 they're resigning Aaron Rodgers, they couldn't have believed in Jordan's 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:55.120 Love because if they did the same way, the Packers 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:57.400 were like, we gotta get Aaron Rodgers start playing, we 0:11:57.440 --> 0:11:59.959 gotta get rid of Brett Farve. If Jordan Love was 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.600 that good, Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be there anymore because he's 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:04.640 a pain in the ass. So I disagree with you. 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:09.760 Remember Seattle does have Denver's first pick, so they're gonna 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:14.680 have a top five pick without giving up anything. Then 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:19.880 then then, by the way I'd stand pat, there are 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:26.400 multiple quarterbacks who could go top five right now that 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.720 you believe could be of that kind of talent to 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:33.160 be perennial Pro Bowlers. You don't need to go trade 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:34.720 for a guy who's three years in that A lot 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:39.640 of people don't think is the next guy. I wouldn't 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:47.160 do it, all right, as they say, uh, you know, 0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:50.960 I'm poor. I'm pouring I'm pouring cold water on your 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:55.480 hot take. All right, Well, wouldn't be the first guy. 0:12:55.880 --> 0:13:01.600 So I like, I've been very much an underdog guy 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:07.319 all year. I'm going to start with a favorite. I like, okay, 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:14.080 everybody now pouring cold water on the Dolphins. No, no, no, no, no. 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:18.959 Missing both tackles against the best defense and about six 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:25.240 years in the league. The Chargers are poorly coached, inconsistent 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:30.520 o line and receiver. Miami's a real team. We overreacted 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:35.560 to that loss. The fact they were competitive late is impressive. 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.560 They were missing both tackles against the best defensive front 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:43.680 in the sport. I think Miami is better coached. Stayed 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:47.880 out West bounces back as a favorite. Minus three really 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:53.720 like the Dolphins, Sharper Square. Not only do the wise 0:13:53.720 --> 0:14:00.120 guys disagree with you on this on the Favorite Pod today, 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:04.880 this was what we call our big balls better week. 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:08.240 You got to have balls if you want to bet 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:12.200 the Los Angeles Chargers and a team that's been banged 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:16.520 up with a really big coaching deficit. Because I agree 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:19.440 the Dolphins are just much better coach than the Los 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:23.800 Angeles Chargers. But the Chargers as dogs are different than 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:27.880 the Chargers's favorites. The Chargers's dogs. There's so much variance 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.960 in how they play, what their play calling is. They're 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:34.840 complete wild cards in a game that probably can be 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.520 a shootout because I do think that the Dolphins are 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:41.280 struggling with injuries and the numbers three and a half, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.160 So you're getting the hook right now. This is a 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:47.640 total pros Joe's game with the squares on the Dolphins 0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:51.600 and the wise guys on the Chargers. All right, let's 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.800 go back to dogs, which I usually like. Deshaun Watson 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:56.440 is going to be better in Week two than Week 0:14:56.480 --> 0:15:00.760 one divisional game. Plus six, they've had their number Bengals 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:05.400 off a wildly crucial watched discuss game over the Chiefs 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.240 pull back a little Browns plus six or five and 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:15.760 a half sharper square, great number, totally sharp. Play divisional game, 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:21.040 playing against with the Browns, a team that did horribly 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.600 against a team that is even worse in the Texans. 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:30.240 This game probably should be lined around four. But there's 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.960 inflation on the Bengals because they are now the public 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:37.960 darling and what they did to the Chiefs, which we 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.720 talked about. Love the Bengals is two and a half 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:44.800 point home underdogs. It's exactly what we thought they would do. 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:49.520 But now the market is so overinflated on the Bengals. 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:53.560 You have to take the Browns in. This another one 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.040 where there's a huge discrepancy. You've got a lot of tickets. 0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:01.320 Tickets are usually indication of the squares at the public 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.400 coming in. They're all coming in in the Bengals, but 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:13.040 the money coming in and the Browns football seasons underway. 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:15.920 Now is the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:19.640 number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a 0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:23.520 no sweat first bet up to a thousand dollars. That's 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:28.080 free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:32.240 promo code is always Colin FanDuel has tons of betting options. 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:35.680 I like the same game, parlay, bet a little, win 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.440 a lot. FanDuel's app is safe, secure, easy to use, 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:43.000 and you get paid your winnings really fast. The no 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:47.480 sweat first bet up to a thousand bucks promo code 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:51.280 Colin make every moment more this season with fan Duel, 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:55.760 official sports book partner of the National Football League. Twenty 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:59.040 one plus some present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, and Louisiana. 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.640 Permitted pair is only Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:04.200 Virginia or West Virginia. First online real money wager only. 0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:06.960 Refund issued as non withdrawal psyche credit that expires in 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:09.800 fourteen days. Restrictions suply s terms at sportsbook dot fandel 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:11.840 dot com. Gambling problem one eight hundred, next step or 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:14.360 text next step to five three three four two Arizona 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.240 one A eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:19.199 seven or visit CCPG dot org, slash chat Connecticut one 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.560 hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com, slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:24.560 Jersey and Virginia one eight seven seven seven seven zero 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:26.480 stop in Louisiana one hundred and two seven oh seven 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:28.400 one one seven for confidential health in Michigan one eight 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:31.280 seven seven h Ope n Y. Or text Hope n Y. 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:33.160 Four six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.520 redline one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:37.640 Tennessee visit one eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:46.119 I think my favorite bet of the week as a 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:49.040 dog is the Panthers plus four at the Seahawks. I 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:53.240 think this team plays hard. I think they like Sam Darnold. 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:58.200 I think Seattle struggled to put away what is currently 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:02.440 an awful RAMS team. I think Seattle is a better 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:07.240 story than a team. People buy into sometimes stories and narratives. 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:12.760 This game, to me is last second, not shocked if 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:17.600 Carolina wins for the record. Brian Burns Rookie offensive tackle 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:21.800 watch out. I like Carolina plus the point Sharper square, 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:29.160 totally sharp, complete agreement on this. Seattle's really been struggling 0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:33.000 the past few games. Kenneth Walker, he looked like the 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:35.720 odds on favorite. He was the odds on favorite to 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:38.919 win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Last three games. That 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:42.800 running game has been struggling. He's injured, did not practice 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:47.960 on Wednesday, his backup is injured, did not practice as well. 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:51.119 There are a lot more third and long situations. Was 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:55.280 does not play to geno strength. And you're right about 0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:58.720 the Panthers. When Baker Mayfield isn't the quarterback for this team, 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:06.399 they're mediocre to decent team. Defensively, they're really good on 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:12.480 explosive plays, defending explosive plays. And jac Horne he's had 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:16.960 three hundred and sixty one coverage snaps this year. He's 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:21.680 allowed one hundred and thirty eight yards. She's great, he's great. 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.280 So if you look at like the other side of it, 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:26.760 we just said the Seahawks need to run the ball, 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:28.600 but they're gonna have a hard time doing it. So 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.359 then you've got a lockdown corner who can take away 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:35.680 DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. So now you've basically eliminated 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.600 all the things that the Seahawks can do. I think 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:40.520 the wise guys agree that this is a good number 0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:42.720 and they expect it to be a close game. Vikings 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:45.399 getting a point and a half all odds provided by 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:48.440 a fan duel, still a better team, more balanced than Detroit. 0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:51.680 Detroit off a big win, feeling themselves it is still 0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:55.520 an absolutely awful back end of the defense, even if 0:19:55.560 --> 0:20:00.640 they outplay Minnesota. Minnesota's got that veteran quarterback, lots of weapons. 0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:04.760 This is a classic. I just don't trust Detroit as 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:12.200 a favorite. I'll take more stability, at least a defense 0:20:12.280 --> 0:20:18.480 that can occasionally situationally make some stops sharper square. I'll 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:22.919 take the Vikings and the points you are playing pretty 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:26.800 square on that one. I don't agree that you can 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:30.479 say the Vikings are a better team than the Lions. 0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:32.560 In fact, if you look at the numbers, look at 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.600 the advanced metrics, which is what wise guys like to do. 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:39.200 They don't do total yards on offense, total yards on defense. 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:41.560 They like to look at the next level. They look 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:44.359 to look at the metrics that tell you the story 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:46.960 of the game, regardless of what the final score is. 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.480 So one of those metrics is called DVOA right. Lions 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.760 thirteenth overall in DVOA Vikings twentieth, Lions ninth in offense 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:59.480 on DVOA Vikings eighteenth defense, Lions nineteenth vis eighteenth. And 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.399 by the way, since the Lions came out of the 0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:06.960 bye and since they fired their defensive backs coach, this 0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:12.560 is a team that statistically offensively and defensively is pretty 0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:16.359 much the Cincinnati Bengals, and everyone thinks the Cincinnati Bengals 0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:18.960 are now going to the super Bowl. So the reason 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:21.080 why you have a team that has a much worse 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:24.000 record that is favored at home against the team that 0:21:24.080 --> 0:21:26.600 is leaving their division by many many games is because 0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:29.080 the professionals feel like the Lions are probably a better 0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:32.240 team than the Vikings. And the fact you're getting it 0:21:32.280 --> 0:21:34.520 at one and a half is a really good number. 0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:42.040 I recommend you take it. Sometimes I don't understand numbers 0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:46.520 and I stay away, but I actually think when Mike 0:21:46.560 --> 0:21:50.520 White's at quarterback, it's a reasonably capable offense. They're now 0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:55.120 getting ten. Revenge is overrated in divisional games. I think 0:21:55.160 --> 0:22:00.760 Buffalo's a good team. Ten against the Jets defense seems 0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:06.000 awfully optimistic. I would take the points with the Jets. 0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:11.600 I think they're a real football team. Sharper square. Believe 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:16.240 it or not, it's square. So right now, the number 0:22:16.240 --> 0:22:20.800 of tickets, the Jets are the public underdog in this game. 0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:24.040 So you mentioned the numbers at ten, it was at nine. 0:22:24.600 --> 0:22:28.000 The tickets are coming in on the Jets, but the 0:22:28.080 --> 0:22:31.760 money the professionals are on the Bills, and so we've 0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:34.199 had what's called the reverse line move. That's when the 0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:36.800 preponderance of tickets are on one side, but the money 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:38.639 is on the other side, and it moves in the 0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:42.480 direction of the money, not in the direction of the tickets. 0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:46.280 And I think one people believe Mike White is a 0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:51.720 better quarterback than Zach Wilson. But now you're getting tape 0:22:51.720 --> 0:22:55.199 on Mike White. You've got six games of tape in 0:22:55.240 --> 0:22:58.920 the past couple of years, it's easier to figure out 0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:01.440 who this guy is. I think the wise guys feel 0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:04.560 like the Bills will be able to scheme against him differently. 0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:07.480 And I also think they believe the Bills are getting healthy. 0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:11.520 And look what they did against the Patriots ten days 0:23:11.560 --> 0:23:14.560 ago was really impressive. To beat a team that people 0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:18.560 thought was on the ascent in the Patriots and do 0:23:18.680 --> 0:23:21.840 it convincingly on the road in a short week. That's 0:23:21.880 --> 0:23:23.679 not easy to do. You don't do that often in 0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:26.879 the NFL. So there's a lot of enthusiasm for what 0:23:26.920 --> 0:23:28.920 the Bills can be right now all right time for 0:23:29.840 --> 0:23:31.760 I'm not sure what to do with this game. I 0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:35.000 want to ask you Jags plus three and a half 0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:39.360 at the Titans coming off a humiliating loss. Vabel off 0:23:39.400 --> 0:23:43.320 a humiliating loss. My guess is at home they player 0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:46.959 their arts off. But I didn't bet it. Tell me 0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:51.320 the side sharper square. The sharp side is the Jaguars. 0:23:51.400 --> 0:23:56.320 If there is a huge Trevor Lawns question right now, 0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:58.959 he injured his toe, is he going to be playing? 0:23:59.440 --> 0:24:02.919 I think the expectation is that he will be playing. 0:24:03.520 --> 0:24:08.320 What you do by beating the Titans is by beating 0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:11.840 the Jags is by throwing the ball. The Titans don't 0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:14.720 have a downfield threat. Traylan Brooks is not expected to 0:24:14.760 --> 0:24:18.199 play because of the concussion protocols, and the Jags have 0:24:18.320 --> 0:24:21.640 a really good rush defense. Meanwhile, and the other side 0:24:21.640 --> 0:24:24.040 of the ball, let's say Trevor Lawrence does play. The 0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:27.200 Titans defense is crushed by injuries, especially in the secondary. 0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:30.240 They're just like they're playing guys literally off the street 0:24:30.720 --> 0:24:32.840 right now. So you're buying a little bit low in 0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:35.120 the Jacks because what happened with the lines. They got 0:24:35.119 --> 0:24:37.879 completely blown out. And the Titans need to win by 0:24:38.440 --> 0:24:40.600 a margin. It's not like one or two points. If 0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:42.080 they need to win by more than a field goal. 0:24:42.320 --> 0:24:45.440 That's actually when you fade Rabel. So the wise guys, 0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:47.879 if they get Trevor Lawrence are going to be in 0:24:47.920 --> 0:24:51.600 the Jacks. Okay, now, try to talk me into a game. 0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:55.760 For the record. Last week, the minute the game started, 0:24:55.800 --> 0:24:59.240 I knew you were right. It was Denver And I 0:24:59.280 --> 0:25:01.080 looked at them again this week at nine and a 0:25:01.119 --> 0:25:03.560 half and I'm like, God, I hate it, but is 0:25:03.600 --> 0:25:07.479 that the game? Last week? I begged you, I beg 0:25:07.600 --> 0:25:10.480 you to bet the Bronchos, and I begged you to 0:25:10.480 --> 0:25:13.840 bet the Rams. I'm going to do it again. Not 0:25:13.960 --> 0:25:17.320 with the Rams. I'm going to beg you, beg you, 0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:20.560 beg you to bet the Broncos. I will have more 0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:24.639 money on the Bronchos this week than any other game. 0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:28.400 Forget about the teams. Let's just say you put your 0:25:28.400 --> 0:25:33.639 hand over the franchises. If you blindly bet home underdogs 0:25:33.640 --> 0:25:38.399 are seven or more. The last twenty years, they cover 0:25:38.720 --> 0:25:41.200 fifty six percent of the time. And by the way, 0:25:40.920 --> 0:25:44.600 when I give that number, it's not like, oh, they 0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:48.800 win six times out of ten. That's a four hundred 0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:52.040 plus game sample size. It is a lot of games. Right, 0:25:52.960 --> 0:25:55.639 Take it one step further. You've got a team with 0:25:55.800 --> 0:26:01.040 a sixty five plus percent winning percentage, that's Kansas City 0:26:01.119 --> 0:26:04.439 Chiefs against a team that is losing it, that is 0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:07.080 winning at twenty five percent or less. They're winning percentage 0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:12.639 of twenty five percent or less. Since twenty sixteen, those 0:26:12.720 --> 0:26:16.600 winning teams, the teams that win are covering at a 0:26:16.640 --> 0:26:21.960