1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,319 Speaker 1: Football Seasons in full gear. No better place to get 3 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: in on the action than Fan Duel. FanDuel app is safe. 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: You get paid fast, A lot of ways to play 5 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action. Same 7 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: game parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo code 8 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 1: Colin and download the Fan Duel app today. Welcome to 9 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: another instant reaction on what was three hours of absolute drek. 10 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield, television star, big time personality, saved the broadcasts, 11 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 1: saved a night of dreary football. My takeaway was, I 12 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: was absolutely rooting for Baker Mayfield to drive at ninety 13 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: eight yards for a winning touchdown. I'm in the story business. 14 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: It's a great story, and you know everybody knows my 15 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: history with Baker Mayfield. I think that's honestly the most 16 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: impressive win of his career. And I'm dead serious. He 17 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: won a playoff game. Go back, and look at that 18 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: Cleveland roster. The old line was like number two in 19 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 1: the league. Nick Chubb, David and Joku Good receivers, Miles Garrett. 20 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: That was a really really good roster and they beat 21 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 1: kind of a old big Ben you know, kind of 22 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: a wobbly Steeler team. This was impressive. Ben Scronic was 23 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: his go to receiver tonight, a second year pro who 24 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: was fourth or fifth on the depth chart, missing multiple 25 00:01:57,080 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: offensive lineman. That's impressive. To walk into a city, new playbook, 26 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 1: new coach, new system, new teammates. I mean, nobody really knows. 27 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 1: Baker Fist bumped a few guys. I mean, Kirk Curvestreet said, 28 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: I've been in town. He goes like, I here Tuesday 29 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 1: for a speaking engagement. I've been in town longer than 30 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield to walk in and kind of you could 31 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: tell throughout the course of the game Baker Mayfield was 32 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: just getting the information from Sean McVeigh and instantly relaying 33 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: it to his team. And I imagine as Baker moved 34 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,399 Speaker 1: to the line of scrimmage, McVeigh was telling him kind 35 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: of what the play was going to precisely look like 36 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: Raiders had because of Max Crosmy a decent pass rush. 37 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: It's not a great defense, but that loss, even by 38 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: Raiders standards, worst of the year for them. They're now 39 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: probably on the outside looking in for the playoffs as 40 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: they end the year with the Niners and the Chiefs, 41 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: so they really really needed this win. But that was 42 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: really impressive by Baker Mayfield. The other thing is you 43 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: don't really I mean, what makes sports is the stories. 44 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: I mean, everybody loves their home team and everybody dislikes 45 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 1: the rival to the home team. But the reason we 46 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: watch games beyond our favorite team or the team we 47 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: grew up with is the drama, the chance for upsets. 48 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: I mean, the Raiders were hot, the Raiders were healthier. 49 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: The fact the Raiders could not pick up a first 50 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: down on third and one. You don't deserve to be 51 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: a playoff team. You don't deserve to win that game. 52 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: But what made tonight special for Baker is a great story. 53 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: A lot of his faults and problems are his, and 54 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: let's be honest, he couldn't step to the podium for 55 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: his weekly press conference in Cleveland without hissing somebody off right, 56 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: Like he just wasn't quite ready to be the face 57 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: of a franchise. He had more commercials than touchdown passes. 58 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: Seemingly he didn't have great judgment. It was my knock 59 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: coming out of college and in the end, he just 60 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: ticked off too many people. Andrew Berry, the coach, teammates 61 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: handed unraveled. And then he goes to Carolina and you 62 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: know they want to see Sam Donold play, but your 63 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: hand to root for Baker Mayfield tonight. Come on. I mean, 64 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: the reason we watched this stuff is upsets and drama 65 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: and stories outside of our favorite teams we grew up with. 66 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: That was a great story. And not only was it 67 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: a great story because of the multiple holding calls on 68 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: the Rams tonight, Baker was twenty two of thirty five 69 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty yards a touchdown, no interception. I'm 70 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: not exactly sure he had at least two, but I 71 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: think three other really nice completions that were negated due 72 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: to holding calls. Baker's oll was throwing a pretty good ball. 73 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 1: When he can set his feet clean pocket, that's never 74 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: been his problem. You know, he gets a little squirrely 75 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: sometimes when he's moving. You know, he rushes things his judgment. 76 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: But if he can set and throw, I mean, you know, 77 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 1: he was a number one pick for a reason. Set 78 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 1: and throw, let it rip. He can be accurate. But 79 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 1: you know there's sometimes is this ever true for you? 80 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: Sometimes the more I get into golf, start taking lessons 81 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: or I start playing more, my golf gets worse. I'm 82 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: overthinking and then I'll take like six months off. I'll 83 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: go golf for the first time in the summer. It 84 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: happened this year in Rhode Island. I played the best 85 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: round of golf I've played like four years. I just 86 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: went out and played. I didn't overthink it. Baker was 87 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 1: playing tonight on adrenaline, little anxiety, a lot of nerves. 88 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: Didn't overthink it. McVay said, here's the play. Re let it, 89 00:05:54,160 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: step back and let it rip. And as impressive. I'm serious, 90 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: that's about as impressive a moment that Baker Mayfield's had. 91 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: I mean, listen, we all know the playoff win in 92 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 1: Cleveland for people in Ohio is going to go down 93 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 1: as a very memorable day. That's a really good team, 94 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: has a really good old line, that was a really 95 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: good roster. This Ram offense is I mean, Baker Mayfield 96 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 1: made the Rams watchable. You know, we saw this a 97 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: couple of nights ago. I was thinking about this. With 98 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: Brady struggled and then his last two drives, you know, 99 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: the defense goes into a little pre event the defense 100 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 1: is on the field, you start giving up, you know, 101 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: seven to ten twelve yards defense on the field. End 102 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: of a game. Defense gets tired. Suddenly, the defense, you know, 103 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 1: the Saints against Brady, the Raiders against Baker, gets a 104 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: little more vulnerable, a little more gassed. You're asking you know, 105 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 1: you're asking these big guys to be on the field 106 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 1: those last two drives after three and a half hours. 107 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,600 Speaker 1: Brady and Baker Mayfield. When's the last time they were 108 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: mentioned in the same sentence? But you had a root 109 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: for Baker tonight. I mean that was fun. It really 110 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: was a lot like that Buccaneer Saints game with Brady 111 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: just dreck until the final two drives. It really was. 112 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: I think from this point forward, anytime you mentioned Baker, 113 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 1: you should also simultaneously mentioned Tom Brady. That's the new 114 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: rule in broadcasting. Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady. 115 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: Where'd you go? Baker? You know we live in the 116 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: same hometown. Now, could you invite him on the volume? 117 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: If an excellent guest, I'm not sure he'd except that 118 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: he's going to be busy actually learning the playbook. Isn't 119 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: that amazing? I mean think about speaking of Brady. When 120 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: Brady moved to Tampa, he literally held secret practices that 121 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: were taped by a helicopter like ten in ink Lee 122 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: trying to learn the playbook with a loaded roster and 123 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: twelve games. In all those practices, Brady was seven and five. 124 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: The protection was bad. He was screaming at teammates. Baker 125 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: Mayfield is in town with a bad roster. He doesn't know, 126 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: he can't spell Ben Scronic his best receiver. He doesn't 127 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: know where he to college. He's never seen him play. 128 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 1: They've probably never run, you know, they've never run in 129 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: game routes, obviously, And Baker Mayfield was pretty accurate tonight 130 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 1: when he had reasonable time to throw. It's pretty accurate. 131 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 1: And Raider fans I've supported all year, you earned that l. 132 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: You absolutely earned every inch of that L. That was bad. 133 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 1: And I've been on the Raiders bandwagon all year. That 134 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: was awful. That was just awful. Tip of the cap 135 00:08:55,679 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: to Baker Mayfield all right. Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman, 136 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: CCO Action Network All odds provided by FanDuel. By the way, 137 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: before we get into our picks, I think a really 138 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: fascinating situation I'm gonna throw this at you. So I 139 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 1: do mock drafts all day. I got no life, right, 140 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: and so in this league, often you will get really 141 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: good players having a down year. They get hurt bad system. 142 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: Rarely do you get average players having a great year. 143 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: Geno Smith, I am betting against him next year. Duplicating 144 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: this right, So you're Seattle, you're the GM. They have 145 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 1: two first two seconds, a third, two fourths, So those 146 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: are seven high quality picks. Do you would you give 147 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: up a third for Jordan Love who will be twenty 148 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: five bigger then Bryce Young, more talented than CJ. Stroud, 149 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,079 Speaker 1: and more season than all of them. I would give 150 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: up a third for him. Still have two first, two 151 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: seconds to fourth. I wouldn't draft a quarterback because I 152 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 1: think here's what I think, Chad. If you look at 153 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: that roster, they have two needs nose tackle. Their first 154 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:27,679 Speaker 1: pick Georgia looks like the next Fletcher Cox, and then 155 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 1: you can argue center or another receiver. It's a good 156 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: center and wide receiver draft. Until about late second. I 157 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: wouldn't draft a quarterback. I would go get Jordan Love 158 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 1: with a third. Been in the league. Good coaching behind 159 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: a star? Is he any less talented than CJ. Stroud. 160 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: He's five inches four inches bigger and heavier by twenty 161 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: five pounds than Bryce Jump. What would you do as GM? 162 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: Quarterback is such an important position in the NFL you 163 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:09,439 Speaker 1: have that much draft capital. I would be as aggressive 164 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: as possible. Package Geno Smith, maybe in number one, maybe 165 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 1: in number two. Try to get as close to the 166 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: top of the draft as possible and get a player 167 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 1: at quarterback who you believe is going to be your 168 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: generational talent. I would not do it with Jordan Love. 169 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 1: I think there's enough tape on Jordan Love from practices 170 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:41,839 Speaker 1: and preseason games for GMS to understand who he is 171 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: at this point, and also know that Aaron Rodgers when 172 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: they're resigning Aaron Rodgers, they couldn't have believed in Jordan's 173 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: Love because if they did the same way, the Packers 174 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: were like, we gotta get Aaron Rodgers start playing, we 175 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 1: gotta get rid of Brett Farve. If Jordan Love was 176 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: that good, Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be there anymore because he's 177 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 1: a pain in the ass. So I disagree with you. 178 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: Remember Seattle does have Denver's first pick, so they're gonna 179 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 1: have a top five pick without giving up anything. Then 180 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 1: then then, by the way I'd stand pat, there are 181 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: multiple quarterbacks who could go top five right now that 182 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: you believe could be of that kind of talent to 183 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: be perennial Pro Bowlers. You don't need to go trade 184 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 1: for a guy who's three years in that A lot 185 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: of people don't think is the next guy. I wouldn't 186 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: do it, all right, as they say, uh, you know, 187 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 1: I'm poor. I'm pouring I'm pouring cold water on your 188 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: hot take. All right, Well, wouldn't be the first guy. 189 00:12:55,880 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: So I like, I've been very much an underdog guy 190 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:07,319 Speaker 1: all year. I'm going to start with a favorite. I like, okay, 191 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: everybody now pouring cold water on the Dolphins. No, no, no, no, no. 192 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 1: Missing both tackles against the best defense and about six 193 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: years in the league. The Chargers are poorly coached, inconsistent 194 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: o line and receiver. Miami's a real team. We overreacted 195 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 1: to that loss. The fact they were competitive late is impressive. 196 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: They were missing both tackles against the best defensive front 197 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 1: in the sport. I think Miami is better coached. Stayed 198 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: out West bounces back as a favorite. Minus three really 199 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 1: like the Dolphins, Sharper Square. Not only do the wise 200 00:13:53,720 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: guys disagree with you on this on the Favorite Pod today, 201 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: this was what we call our big balls better week. 202 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: You got to have balls if you want to bet 203 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers and a team that's been banged 204 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: up with a really big coaching deficit. Because I agree 205 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: the Dolphins are just much better coach than the Los 206 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers. But the Chargers as dogs are different than 207 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: the Chargers's favorites. The Chargers's dogs. There's so much variance 208 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: in how they play, what their play calling is. They're 209 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: complete wild cards in a game that probably can be 210 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: a shootout because I do think that the Dolphins are 211 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: struggling with injuries and the numbers three and a half, 212 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: So you're getting the hook right now. This is a 213 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: total pros Joe's game with the squares on the Dolphins 214 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: and the wise guys on the Chargers. All right, let's 215 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: go back to dogs, which I usually like. Deshaun Watson 216 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 1: is going to be better in Week two than Week 217 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: one divisional game. Plus six, they've had their number Bengals 218 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: off a wildly crucial watched discuss game over the Chiefs 219 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: pull back a little Browns plus six or five and 220 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: a half sharper square, great number, totally sharp. Play divisional game, 221 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: playing against with the Browns, a team that did horribly 222 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: against a team that is even worse in the Texans. 223 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: This game probably should be lined around four. But there's 224 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: inflation on the Bengals because they are now the public 225 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: darling and what they did to the Chiefs, which we 226 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 1: talked about. Love the Bengals is two and a half 227 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: point home underdogs. It's exactly what we thought they would do. 228 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: But now the market is so overinflated on the Bengals. 229 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: You have to take the Browns in. This another one 230 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: where there's a huge discrepancy. You've got a lot of tickets. 231 00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: Tickets are usually indication of the squares at the public 232 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 1: coming in. They're all coming in in the Bengals, but 233 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: the money coming in and the Browns football seasons underway. 234 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: Now is the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's 235 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a 236 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: no sweat first bet up to a thousand dollars. That's 237 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The 238 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: promo code is always Colin FanDuel has tons of betting options. 239 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: I like the same game, parlay, bet a little, win 240 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: a lot. 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Or text Hope n Y. 259 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,160 Speaker 1: Four six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee 260 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 1: redline one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine 261 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: Tennessee visit one eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. 262 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 1: I think my favorite bet of the week as a 263 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: dog is the Panthers plus four at the Seahawks. I 264 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: think this team plays hard. I think they like Sam Darnold. 265 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 1: I think Seattle struggled to put away what is currently 266 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 1: an awful RAMS team. I think Seattle is a better 267 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 1: story than a team. People buy into sometimes stories and narratives. 268 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: This game, to me is last second, not shocked if 269 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: Carolina wins for the record. Brian Burns Rookie offensive tackle 270 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: watch out. I like Carolina plus the point Sharper square, 271 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: totally sharp, complete agreement on this. Seattle's really been struggling 272 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 1: the past few games. Kenneth Walker, he looked like the 273 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: odds on favorite. He was the odds on favorite to 274 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 1: win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Last three games. That 275 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: running game has been struggling. He's injured, did not practice 276 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: on Wednesday, his backup is injured, did not practice as well. 277 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: There are a lot more third and long situations. Was 278 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: does not play to geno strength. And you're right about 279 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: the Panthers. When Baker Mayfield isn't the quarterback for this team, 280 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 1: they're mediocre to decent team. Defensively, they're really good on 281 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: explosive plays, defending explosive plays. And jac Horne he's had 282 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty one coverage snaps this year. He's 283 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 1: allowed one hundred and thirty eight yards. She's great, he's great. 284 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: So if you look at like the other side of it, 285 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: we just said the Seahawks need to run the ball, 286 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: but they're gonna have a hard time doing it. So 287 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 1: then you've got a lockdown corner who can take away 288 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 1: DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. So now you've basically eliminated 289 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 1: all the things that the Seahawks can do. I think 290 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: the wise guys agree that this is a good number 291 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: and they expect it to be a close game. Vikings 292 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,399 Speaker 1: getting a point and a half all odds provided by 293 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: a fan duel, still a better team, more balanced than Detroit. 294 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,680 Speaker 1: Detroit off a big win, feeling themselves it is still 295 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: an absolutely awful back end of the defense, even if 296 00:19:55,560 --> 00:20:00,640 Speaker 1: they outplay Minnesota. Minnesota's got that veteran quarterback, lots of weapons. 297 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: This is a classic. I just don't trust Detroit as 298 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: a favorite. I'll take more stability, at least a defense 299 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 1: that can occasionally situationally make some stops sharper square. I'll 300 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 1: take the Vikings and the points you are playing pretty 301 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 1: square on that one. I don't agree that you can 302 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,479 Speaker 1: say the Vikings are a better team than the Lions. 303 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: In fact, if you look at the numbers, look at 304 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: the advanced metrics, which is what wise guys like to do. 305 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 1: They don't do total yards on offense, total yards on defense. 306 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: They like to look at the next level. They look 307 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 1: to look at the metrics that tell you the story 308 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 1: of the game, regardless of what the final score is. 309 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 1: So one of those metrics is called DVOA right. Lions 310 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: thirteenth overall in DVOA Vikings twentieth, Lions ninth in offense 311 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: on DVOA Vikings eighteenth defense, Lions nineteenth vis eighteenth. And 312 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 1: by the way, since the Lions came out of the 313 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 1: bye and since they fired their defensive backs coach, this 314 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: is a team that statistically offensively and defensively is pretty 315 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 1: much the Cincinnati Bengals, and everyone thinks the Cincinnati Bengals 316 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: are now going to the super Bowl. So the reason 317 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: why you have a team that has a much worse 318 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: record that is favored at home against the team that 319 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 1: is leaving their division by many many games is because 320 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: the professionals feel like the Lions are probably a better 321 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: team than the Vikings. And the fact you're getting it 322 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: at one and a half is a really good number. 323 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 1: I recommend you take it. Sometimes I don't understand numbers 324 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 1: and I stay away, but I actually think when Mike 325 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: White's at quarterback, it's a reasonably capable offense. They're now 326 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 1: getting ten. Revenge is overrated in divisional games. I think 327 00:21:55,160 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: Buffalo's a good team. Ten against the Jets defense seems 328 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 1: awfully optimistic. I would take the points with the Jets. 329 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: I think they're a real football team. Sharper square. Believe 330 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 1: it or not, it's square. So right now, the number 331 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: of tickets, the Jets are the public underdog in this game. 332 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: So you mentioned the numbers at ten, it was at nine. 333 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: The tickets are coming in on the Jets, but the 334 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: money the professionals are on the Bills, and so we've 335 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 1: had what's called the reverse line move. That's when the 336 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: preponderance of tickets are on one side, but the money 337 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 1: is on the other side, and it moves in the 338 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: direction of the money, not in the direction of the tickets. 339 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: And I think one people believe Mike White is a 340 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: better quarterback than Zach Wilson. But now you're getting tape 341 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 1: on Mike White. You've got six games of tape in 342 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 1: the past couple of years, it's easier to figure out 343 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 1: who this guy is. I think the wise guys feel 344 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 1: like the Bills will be able to scheme against him differently. 345 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: And I also think they believe the Bills are getting healthy. 346 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: And look what they did against the Patriots ten days 347 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: ago was really impressive. To beat a team that people 348 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 1: thought was on the ascent in the Patriots and do 349 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: it convincingly on the road in a short week. That's 350 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,679 Speaker 1: not easy to do. You don't do that often in 351 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 1: the NFL. So there's a lot of enthusiasm for what 352 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 1: the Bills can be right now all right time for 353 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: I'm not sure what to do with this game. I 354 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 1: want to ask you Jags plus three and a half 355 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,360 Speaker 1: at the Titans coming off a humiliating loss. Vabel off 356 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: a humiliating loss. My guess is at home they player 357 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,959 Speaker 1: their arts off. But I didn't bet it. Tell me 358 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: the side sharper square. The sharp side is the Jaguars. 359 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: If there is a huge Trevor Lawns question right now, 360 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,959 Speaker 1: he injured his toe, is he going to be playing? 361 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 1: I think the expectation is that he will be playing. 362 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: What you do by beating the Titans is by beating 363 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 1: the Jags is by throwing the ball. The Titans don't 364 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 1: have a downfield threat. Traylan Brooks is not expected to 365 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 1: play because of the concussion protocols, and the Jags have 366 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,640 Speaker 1: a really good rush defense. Meanwhile, and the other side 367 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: of the ball, let's say Trevor Lawrence does play. The 368 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: Titans defense is crushed by injuries, especially in the secondary. 369 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 1: They're just like they're playing guys literally off the street 370 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: right now. So you're buying a little bit low in 371 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,120 Speaker 1: the Jacks because what happened with the lines. They got 372 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: completely blown out. And the Titans need to win by 373 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: a margin. It's not like one or two points. If 374 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: they need to win by more than a field goal. 375 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 1: That's actually when you fade Rabel. So the wise guys, 376 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: if they get Trevor Lawrence are going to be in 377 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 1: the Jacks. Okay, now, try to talk me into a game. 378 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: For the record. Last week, the minute the game started, 379 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 1: I knew you were right. It was Denver And I 380 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: looked at them again this week at nine and a 381 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 1: half and I'm like, God, I hate it, but is 382 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,479 Speaker 1: that the game? Last week? I begged you, I beg 383 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 1: you to bet the Bronchos, and I begged you to 384 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 1: bet the Rams. I'm going to do it again. Not 385 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 1: with the Rams. I'm going to beg you, beg you, 386 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: beg you to bet the Broncos. I will have more 387 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,639 Speaker 1: money on the Bronchos this week than any other game. 388 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,400 Speaker 1: Forget about the teams. Let's just say you put your 389 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 1: hand over the franchises. If you blindly bet home underdogs 390 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 1: are seven or more. The last twenty years, they cover 391 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the time. And by the way, 392 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: when I give that number, it's not like, oh, they 393 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: win six times out of ten. That's a four hundred 394 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 1: plus game sample size. It is a lot of games. Right, 395 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,639 Speaker 1: Take it one step further. You've got a team with 396 00:25:55,800 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: a sixty five plus percent winning percentage, that's Kansas City 397 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,439 Speaker 1: Chiefs against a team that is losing it, that is 398 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 1: winning at twenty five percent or less. They're winning percentage 399 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:12,639 Speaker 1: of twenty five percent or less. Since twenty sixteen, those 400 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 1: winning teams, the teams that win are covering at a 401 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 1: thirty six percent rate. Okay, that's terrible. Let's take it 402 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 1: one step further, and there's a reason for all this. 403 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes in November and December in his career is 404 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: thirty two and five against the spread seventeen eighteen and two. 405 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: The reason why all this happens is because when you 406 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,679 Speaker 1: get later in the year, you have bigger favorites. The 407 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 1: bigger favorites are always the teams that have won for 408 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: two straight months. They're the Kansas City Chiefs, right, and 409 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: so they're inflated. The public is going to come in 410 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,879 Speaker 1: on them. Bookmakers know that, so you are always getting 411 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:58,800 Speaker 1: extra value when you fade that when you bet against 412 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: those teams, because those teams are so beloved by the public. 413 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,679 Speaker 1: Monday Night Football Patriots Cardinals. Am I betting, buddy Colin? 414 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: I know it's hard. I told you, I hate betting 415 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 1: bad offenses. Oh, it's terrible. Betting is terrible. Patriots, Cardinals. 416 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 1: Who would you take? I'd probably take the Cardinals. Um, 417 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 1: it's interesting. We've talked about this. Like when we do 418 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 1: the podcasts, we do one on Tuesday, we do one 419 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 1: on Thursday. In those forty eight hours, we get a 420 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,120 Speaker 1: lot of calls from professional betters who like to talk 421 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 1: about the games that we were talking about and sort 422 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 1: of give us their take, and we call it sharp calls. 423 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 1: And there are a lot of sharp calls this week, 424 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:47,720 Speaker 1: like in Arizona. It's a little bit because the Pats 425 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: seem to be in some offensive disarray. I think that 426 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,680 Speaker 1: we're talking and we talked about this a couple weeks 427 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: ago with the Cardinals prior to the bye. I liked 428 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: him as dogs against the Chargers and that covered it's 429 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 1: because they were finally healthy, Like they got Hollywood Brown, 430 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: they got DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been all worlds since 431 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 1: he came back. You're just getting a better look at 432 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 1: that offense and the Pats if they struggled with anything defensively, 433 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: it's been with Russian quarterbacks. So I favor the Cardinals. 434 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 1: Chad Millman CCO Action Network good see anybody. Good to 435 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 1: see you too, my man. We'll touch you later the volume. 436 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: Make sure to check out The Draymond Green Show. I 437 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the 438 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 1: more entertaining voices in sports. Unique perspective understands behind the rope. 439 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 1: Also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, 440 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green Show wherever 441 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, only on the Volume podcast Network.