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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're all for running a game so smoothe

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Speaker 1: so sweet, slid sixting, just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that? Shop

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Speaker 2: with find good buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 2: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying again. The love it's left to.

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Speaker 1: Of the wide eyed drill piffuge, how old earth pick

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Speaker 1: that happens? Hello and welcome back to Wondergold, the soccer

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Speaker 1: betting podcast from the Action Network. I am your host today,

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Speaker 1: BJ Cunningham. Our illustrious host, Michael Leeboff is going to

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Speaker 1: be out up for a few episodes so that it'll

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Speaker 1: be myself and my good friend Anthony Dubundo taking you

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Speaker 1: across the European landscape. This weekend, we have a full

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Speaker 1: slate of matches in the Bundesliga, La Liga, Siria A

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Speaker 1: and Legean. The Premier League unfortunately is off for the

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Speaker 1: FA Cup except for one match, actually a very big

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Speaker 1: match in terms of the stakes a relegation battle between

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Speaker 1: Burnley and Watford at Turf Moore. Burnley is currently sitting

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Speaker 1: at plus one twenty, Watford is at plus two thirty

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Speaker 1: five and the draw sitting at plus two thirty. Before

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Speaker 1: the international break, Watford decided that they need to make

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Speaker 1: a change at manager. Claudia Renieri has been sacked and

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Speaker 1: the man that they chose to lead them out of

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Speaker 1: the relegation battle is seventy three year old Roy Hodgson,

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Speaker 1: who is going to bring a very archaic form of tactics.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be a four to four two, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be physical, it's gonna be defensive, so we'll see if

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Speaker 1: Watford will get their first clean sheet of the season.

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Speaker 1: On the flip side, Burnley has done some moves in

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Speaker 1: the transfer market. They brought in wild Weighorst from Wolfsburg.

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Speaker 1: He is a six foot six striker from the Netherlands

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Speaker 1: actually started for the Dutch up top in the Euros

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Speaker 1: this summer. In my opinions, the most makes sense transfer

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Speaker 1: of the transfer window. He's gonna fit in perfectly in

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Speaker 1: Burton Sean Dish's system, especially alongside Maxwell Grene at top.

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Speaker 1: As far as this match is concerned. I don't project

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Speaker 1: really any value. I think I'm going to be staying

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Speaker 1: away just because of all the changes that we've seen,

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Speaker 1: especially with Watford since the international break. But Anthony, do

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Speaker 1: you have anything for this match?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm staying away as well. Congratulations to Michael, Welcome

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Speaker 2: to fatherhood. I hope you're listening. Yes, Maxwell Corney is

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Speaker 2: back for Burnley. That makes a huge difference to this attack.

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Speaker 2: He actually has six goals, but really it's only come

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Speaker 2: on two expected goals, so I'm not sure he's gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to sustain that level of production that he's

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Speaker 2: had coming back from the break here. Do expect him

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Speaker 2: to cool off finishing at some point, although talk about

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Speaker 2: buying low, which is something we talk about on this

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Speaker 2: podcast a lot buying low on Vegast six goals from

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Speaker 2: just nine expected in the Bundesliga, the first year of

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Speaker 2: his career where he's really underperformed his metrics. You'd expect

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Speaker 2: him to bounce back. He's been a career over expected

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Speaker 2: finisher or he's actually above average in that department, so

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Speaker 2: once he refines his finishing boots, that could be a

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Speaker 2: big addition. But I do have some question marks about

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Speaker 2: veg Arst when we look at the numbers, he's twenty

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Speaker 2: nine years old getting two point two shots per ninety

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Speaker 2: in the wide open Bundesliga. We typically see about a

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Speaker 2: twenty percent tax on players when they leave the Bundesliga.

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Speaker 2: We've seen some players have seen their production go considerably down.

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Speaker 2: There's just not as many chances, there's not as many shots.

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Speaker 2: It's not as open in that league. So if he's

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Speaker 2: not able to get two shots per ninety, which is

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Speaker 2: about what Chris Wood was getting, I'm not really sure

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Speaker 2: it's an upgrade net net. But of course, losing Wood,

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Speaker 2: they had to sign somebody, so credit Burnley forgetting the

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Speaker 2: right guy. He's pretty good in their seventy six percentile

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Speaker 2: on aerial duels, which is worse than would but still

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Speaker 2: pretty good. Like you mentioned six foot six Roy Hodgson,

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Speaker 2: I'm excited just because it's going to be interesting. You know,

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Speaker 2: this is the two worst teams in the league on points,

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Speaker 2: two of the three worst teams. In my numbers, I

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Speaker 2: don't really show a ton here. I make Burnley about

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Speaker 2: where they are in the market, and I'm concerned I

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Speaker 2: may be too high on them because I think that

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Speaker 2: there's some very frightening defensive numbers that are being put

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Speaker 2: up by them in terms of not quite blocking shots,

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Speaker 2: not quite doing the defensive work that they've been able

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Speaker 2: to do and get by with for so long. So

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Speaker 2: I'm happy to stay away here. Watford won't have Emmanuel Dennis.

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Speaker 2: He's suspended for this match after his red card against

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Speaker 2: Norwich when they got played off the park by Josh

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Speaker 2: Sargent's boys. So I would need a better number to

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Speaker 2: grab Watford here, and that's where I would certainly lean

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Speaker 2: at the number, but because I'm concerned I'm a little

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Speaker 2: too high on Burnley. But overall happy to pass this

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Speaker 2: one and enjoy what's a pretty fun slate. I know

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Speaker 2: we're gonna get into it. Pretty fun slate across the

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Speaker 2: rest of Europe with a lot of high profile matches.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Roy Hodgson. He managed Crystal Palace last

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Speaker 1: year and when Palace played they drastically overperformed and probably

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Speaker 1: should have been a relegation team. When you know, Palace

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Speaker 1: out of the four to four to two last year

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Speaker 1: per understat one point seven expectacles allowed per ninety minutes.

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Speaker 1: So you know the personnel that Watford has right now.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's the right personnel to play a

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Speaker 1: four to four to two. You need to play something

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Speaker 1: a little more attacking, like a four to four three

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Speaker 1: or four to three three. But you know, we'll see

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Speaker 1: what happens. Like like Anthony said, it's kind of a

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Speaker 1: wait and see with Watford, and you mentioned it. Let's

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Speaker 1: move over to Germany. We have a huge match in

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Speaker 1: the Bundesliga. League leaders Bayern Munich is hosting ARBI Leipzig.

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Speaker 1: It's a revenge spot for ARBI Leipsigg obviously what they're

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Speaker 1: losing earlier this season and their former manager Len Nigelsman

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Speaker 1: currently managing Bayron Munich. Anthony, what do you have for

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Speaker 1: this Bundesliga clash?

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Speaker 2: So there's a few different ways I kind of want

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Speaker 2: to get at this, and I'm not sure exactly how

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Speaker 2: I'm going to play it. We're recording this as a

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Speaker 2: Wednesday night, we have some time, and I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: going to wait to see how the market moves here.

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Speaker 2: There's a few things I like. One, I think Leipzig

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Speaker 2: is a little bit undervalued, so I immediately looked towards

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Speaker 2: the plus one and a half. But I'm also concerned

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Speaker 2: about this late game scenario where Leipzig is down a

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Speaker 2: goal and they're chasing and Byron rips them apart on

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Speaker 2: the counter and wins by two or three going away.

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Speaker 2: We've seen them do that to a lot of teams.

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Speaker 2: We especially saw how vulnerable Leipzig was to those kind

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Speaker 2: of counter attacks and how they over committed and got

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Speaker 2: completely destroyed. They give up four point two expected goals

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Speaker 2: in the first meeting. Now that was under Jesse Marsh.

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Speaker 2: Now they have Dominico Tedesco in charge. He's the new

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Speaker 2: manager there. Since the winner break, they've allowed one goal

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Speaker 2: or fewer and expected goals in each of their four wins.

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Speaker 2: That had only happened three times in the entire Marsh era,

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Speaker 2: which was from the beginning of the season until the

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Speaker 2: winter break when they fired him. They've considerably improved. They're

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Speaker 2: allowing fewer big scoring chances. That's really been the biggest

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Speaker 2: issue for them is that they have a lot of

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Speaker 2: players now who are good with the ball at their

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Speaker 2: feet and kind of good at playing possession, slow build

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Speaker 2: up stuff, kind of what Noaglosmen drilled them to do,

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Speaker 2: and then Marsh tried to turn up the tempo and

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Speaker 2: they are now tenth in the Bundesliga and big scoring

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Speaker 2: chances allowed. That's pretty concerning going up against Byron, who

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Speaker 2: obviously can do whatever they want to anybody number one

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Speaker 2: in the league, and every metric on offense from box

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Speaker 2: entries to scoring chances to XG to goals to shots

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Speaker 2: two points, it's Byron right. There are going to be

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Speaker 2: limited capacity. Ten thousand fans is what it sounds like,

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Speaker 2: is going to be limited in here, so that kind

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Speaker 2: of blunts the home field advantage. So that's another reason

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Speaker 2: to look towards Leipzig. I also lean toward the both

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Speaker 2: teams to score over two and a half. You can

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Speaker 2: find that parlay together minus one thirty, or I may

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Speaker 2: play some Leipzig team total over one and a half

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Speaker 2: to kind of get this Leipzig defensive issue out of

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Speaker 2: the picture. Byron won't have Alfonso Davies or Leon Garretzka,

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Speaker 2: but they have more than enough depth to cope for that.

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Speaker 2: Davies especially killed them up the left flank in the

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Speaker 2: first meeting, so he will not be there. That's good

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Speaker 2: for Leipzig. So I leaned toward Leipzig might play a

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Speaker 2: team total, might play the spread, but I'm definitely looking

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Speaker 2: to get at Byron here. I think this is a

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Speaker 2: good flat spot here for them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of go in the same direction as you.

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Speaker 1: I like over three and a half goals that currently

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Speaker 1: had even money, which I was kind of shocked to

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Speaker 1: see at that low, you know, putting to like you said,

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Speaker 1: with those Byron offensive numbers either some of the most

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Speaker 1: impressive numbers I've seen, I think in a long time.

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Speaker 1: You know, two point seven to eight expected goals for match,

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Speaker 1: twenty point five shots per ninety, twenty two point one

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Speaker 1: box entries per ninety, and three and a half big

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Speaker 1: scoring chances per ninety that's those are insane numbers. And

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Speaker 1: I also went looked. Byron's only been held under two

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Speaker 1: expected goals four times and twenty Bundesliga matches. So this

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Speaker 1: offense has really improved the you know, the the how

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Speaker 1: they're creating chances under Nagles mean versus how they were

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Speaker 1: last year under Hans Flick they were. They're getting more,

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Speaker 1: like we said, big scoring chances closer than that, they're

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Speaker 1: not relying on Lewandowski with shots outside the box. Thomas

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Speaker 1: Mueller has created the most chances of anybody across Europe's

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Speaker 1: top five leagues. It's just an unbelievable offense that I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure if Leipsig is going to be ready, I'd

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Speaker 1: be able to handle it obviously. You know you mentioned

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Speaker 1: the defensive numbers five point seven expected goals and six

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Speaker 1: matches under to Desco. They haven't really faced like the

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Speaker 1: stiff as a competition. I know one of them was

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Speaker 1: against Gladbach, one was against Wolfsburg, one was against Minds,

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Speaker 1: but mine's got a red card. Byron is a completely

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Speaker 1: different animal and if Byron is able to do to

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Speaker 1: them what they were able to do back in September,

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Speaker 1: then this one could get out of hand very early.

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Speaker 1: But like you mentioned, the Leipsig offense is incredible. They're

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Speaker 1: actually fifth in Europe's top five leagues and expected goals

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Speaker 1: for per match two point four to seven expected goals

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Speaker 1: per match under to Desco. It's a really really good offense.

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Speaker 1: Twenty one big scoring chances in those six matches as well,

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Speaker 1: So I agree with you that you know, I definitely

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Speaker 1: would take a look maybe out Lpe stick over one

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Speaker 1: and a half, but I am going with over three

201
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Speaker 1: and a half goals at even money because I think

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Speaker 1: this one has a high scoring event written all over it.

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Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure those four games, two of them were

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Speaker 2: god bocked that Byron was on under two, and I

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Speaker 2: think one of them was actually great deferred as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah it was. Yeah, your teams yep, for some reason

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Speaker 1: they're at Yeah, Gladbach who is who honestly against Leipzig

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Speaker 1: allowed four point four expected goals the very like I

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Speaker 1: think the next match or two matches after that help

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Speaker 1: help holds Byron to like one point three. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: you said mentioned it, Gruther, uh Greutz Sorry, Uh, I

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Speaker 1: think the only point nine expected goals in that match.

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Speaker 1: It was it was a Friday sleepy type match. I

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Speaker 1: think Byron, you know, they scored three goals. But but yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's this is it is a really interesting match and

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Speaker 1: the actually, you know it does matter to Byron. There

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Speaker 1: are only six points above Dortmann. They have to take

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Speaker 1: this seriously. You know, we'll obviously as we get longer

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Speaker 1: in the season, you know we'll have to handicap, you know, motivation,

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Speaker 1: But this one definitely a lot of motivation for Byron,

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Speaker 1: especially with Nogles men at the helm. If you know,

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Speaker 1: Byron is not the type of team to take their

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Speaker 1: foot off the gas, so if they get ahead, that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be pedal to the metal the full time. Let's

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Speaker 1: look around the rest of Germany. Is there anything else

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Speaker 1: you like in the Bundesliga this weekend?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm holding my nose as I read this U

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Speaker 2: dor Leverkusen under three and a half. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: like the biggest hold your nose play of the whole

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Speaker 2: year playing these two teams who love to play open,

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Speaker 2: create a good amount of chances and you know, play

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Speaker 2: a style that leads to overs. They played a four

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Speaker 2: to three thriller earlier this year, they played a three

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Speaker 2: to one game at the end of last season. Really,

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Speaker 2: I just think that Chick and Holland are the two

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Speaker 2: hottest strikers in the league right now in terms of

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Speaker 2: finishing quality, and they've been the most clinical finishers, and

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Speaker 2: you know, you can say they're great finishers and that's

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Speaker 2: a decent point, but they're running way above their numbers

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Speaker 2: that you'd expect. And Dortmann, for example, scored three goals

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Speaker 2: on three shots against Hoffenheim. Their first two shots went in,

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Speaker 2: they had a shot that didn't go win and then

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Speaker 2: Hoffenheim gave an own goal, which was really great for

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Speaker 2: those of us that had the under in that game.

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Speaker 2: The first time these two teams played, there were only

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Speaker 2: twenty four shots in the game, which is not a

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Speaker 2: lot for these two teams seven goals. There was only

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Speaker 2: about two point nine expected goals in the game and

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Speaker 2: ended four to three. There was a penalty involved as well,

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Speaker 2: so that really takes a big chunk of the XG there.

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Speaker 2: Leverkusen scored two goals from outside the box. There was

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Speaker 2: a late penalty to Holland Dortmund him Now in the

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Speaker 2: last five games scored sixteen goals, five against Freiberg, three

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Speaker 2: against Frankfurt and a late comeback. They had three against Hoffenheim.

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Speaker 2: They've only created about nine expected goals. They're just running

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Speaker 2: ridiculously hot. And I know we could do this song

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Speaker 2: and dance with Dortmund all year, but at some point

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Speaker 2: you're going to see some regression and I only project

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Speaker 2: three point three goals here. The one major concern Leverkusin's

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Speaker 2: defense has been quite poor lately. They've been seeing a

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Speaker 2: lot of chances. I do think that they've been getting

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Speaker 2: exposed a lot on the counter. I don't know that

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Speaker 2: that's going to happen quite as much here because I

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Speaker 2: think Dortmund at home will control more of the ball.

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Speaker 2: I know there's no fans could take some juice out

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Speaker 2: of this. I lean towards Dortmand on the money line too.

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Speaker 2: I like the way these matches up for them. They

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Speaker 2: dominated the first leg and really should have won more comfortably.

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Speaker 2: It was like two point one too point eight expected,

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Speaker 2: So my numbers are kind of close minus one fifteen number.

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Speaker 2: The markets at like minus one oh five right now,

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Speaker 2: so I don't really have a ton of value on it,

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Speaker 2: so I'm probably going to pass the money line, but

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Speaker 2: I definitely like the under three and a half. You

275
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Speaker 2: could even hedge off and maybe split a unit, grab

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Speaker 2: an under one and a half or one in a

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Speaker 2: quarter in the first half. Tried to do that last

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Speaker 2: week and Hoffenheim scored in the last kick in the

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Speaker 2: first half. So you know, there's never a fun bet

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Speaker 2: to make you know when you're betting an under in

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Speaker 2: these two teams, But I'm doing it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Patrick Schick best striker in the world. Also, Hollin's

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Speaker 1: NFT broke the record six hundred thousand this week. Crazy.

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Speaker 1: I think it was kind of off topic ball i'm i'm

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at Augsburg, Union Berlin. I love Union Berlin

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Speaker 1: Drono bet at minus one twenty five, it's a really

287
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Speaker 1: really good spot for them. Have been playing really really

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Speaker 1: well over the last few months despite not having their

289
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Speaker 1: best striker Taiwo Awenoi, who has been at the Africa

290
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Speaker 1: Cup of Nations with Nigeria over the last three matches.

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Speaker 1: He's a big part of their attack. He's got a

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Speaker 1: point six to two x g per ninety minute scoring

293
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Speaker 1: rates of having him back in the lineup against the

294
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Speaker 1: worst defense in the Bundesli is a huge boost for them.

295
00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,040
Speaker 1: Augsburg allowing one point sixty nine non penalty expected goals

296
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Speaker 1: per match, They've allowed thirty nine big scoring chances. That's

297
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Speaker 1: a huge problem against Unjan Berlin, who has created the

298
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Speaker 1: sixth most big scoring chances on offense. The main problem

299
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Speaker 1: with Augsburg is they don't really possess the ball that much.

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Speaker 1: They're very a direct attacking style. They've only had five

301
00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,240
Speaker 1: build up attacks, which is ten plus passes that leads

302
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Speaker 1: to a shot and that's dead last in the Bundesliga.

303
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Speaker 1: But their direct speed is obviously top third, top three

304
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Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga. That's great, but the problem with that

305
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Speaker 1: is if you're not possessing the ball and you're losing

306
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Speaker 1: the ball and you have too many guys committed forward,

307
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,120
Speaker 1: it leaves you wide open in the midfield, and that's

308
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Speaker 1: where Union Berlain will be able to exploit them. Even

309
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Speaker 1: though you know Augsburg's offense does now have Ricardo PEPPI

310
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Speaker 1: will see if he actually comes back in time from

311
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Speaker 1: you know, the United States World Cup qualifiers, this is

312
00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,520
Speaker 1: still a bottom five offense in the bundesligaan pretty much

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Speaker 1: every single offensive metric. Union Berlain, on the other hand,

314
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Speaker 1: fantastic defensive outfit. Usually plays out of its three five

315
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,760
Speaker 1: to two, which allows them some tactical flexibility and it's

316
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Speaker 1: been working for them because only allowing one point twenty

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Speaker 1: five expectacles per ninety minutes when playing out of it,

318
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,600
Speaker 1: and have conceded the third fewest big scoring chances in

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Speaker 1: the Bundesliga. I have Union Blenn projected at plus one

320
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Speaker 1: oh three on the road, so I love their draw

321
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Speaker 1: no betline at minus one.

322
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Speaker 2: Yeah, if justice has served, Osburg will be going down.

323
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,080
Speaker 2: They have one of the most interesting counter attack profiles

324
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Speaker 2: in all of Europe. At one point last year, I

325
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Speaker 2: think they were the heaviest counter attacking team in Europe

326
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Speaker 2: and Unyolan's tough, you know, physically, and they're tough to

327
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Speaker 2: break down on the counter. They're usually pretty solid at

328
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Speaker 2: the back. So I will probably also be joining you

329
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Speaker 2: on that one.

330
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Speaker 1: Wonderful all right, It's going to be a Bundesliga party

331
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Speaker 1: with Union Berlin and watching a snoozefest between Dortmund and

332
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Speaker 1: Leverkusen should be a fun time. Let's move over to Italy.

333
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 1: There is one huge match in Syria A and it's

334
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Speaker 1: the Milan Derby, inter Milan taking on AC Milan. Inter

335
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Speaker 1: Milan is sitting at minus one twenty five, Acy Milan

336
00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 1: at plus three thirty in the draw at plus two ninety.

337
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot for this match. This is

338
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,160
Speaker 1: a pretty big match in the Syria title race because

339
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,480
Speaker 1: if AC Milan loses this one, their title challenge is

340
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:16,160
Speaker 1: pretty much over. If they win or draw, they not

341
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 1: only leave the door open for themselves, but the door

342
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,760
Speaker 1: open for Napoli to potentially make a challenge. At Inter

343
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,040
Speaker 1: enters up by four points over both those teams, but

344
00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 1: they do have a game in hand. Like I said,

345
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Speaker 1: I'm pretty you know, close to the market on this one.

346
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 1: With my projection, I might look at an under potentially

347
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 1: if against Steen. This is you know, two of the

348
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,320
Speaker 1: four best defenses in Italy in terms of non penalty

349
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: expected goals. But other than that, I'm kind of staying away. Anthony.

350
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:40,880
Speaker 1: Do you have anything through this one?

351
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, there were two penalties in the first in the

352
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 2: first match, one was missed, one was made, and then

353
00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,320
Speaker 2: I believe there was an own goal. So to survive

354
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 2: an under two and a half, which is what I

355
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 2: had in the first leg, was probably one of my

356
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,200
Speaker 2: miracles of the year. But if you go back and

357
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,600
Speaker 2: watch the game, it was total domination from Inter. I

358
00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 2: mean they controlled from pretty much start to finish. Milan

359
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 2: was trying to counter, and that's not a terrible situation

360
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 2: for Milan to be in. They're generally pretty good about

361
00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:07,600
Speaker 2: the ball, pretty good on the counter. Guys like Rafa

362
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,520
Speaker 2: Laau are really good in space, and so I think,

363
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,880
Speaker 2: you know, that could work for them in this spot.

364
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,320
Speaker 2: And I have the number of scenes about right to

365
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 2: me as well. The look for me is again going

366
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:19,800
Speaker 2: to the under, just because both attacks are a little

367
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 2: bit hot in terms of finishing, we expect regression for both.

368
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 2: This entire goddamn league, you know, has been the bane

369
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,680
Speaker 2: of my existence for the last year, and I'm convinced

370
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:32,440
Speaker 2: that's never going to turn around, but you know, at

371
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:33,760
Speaker 2: some point it is. And these are two of the

372
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:35,120
Speaker 2: teams that are the top of the list when you're

373
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 2: looking at teams who have some attacking regression coming. The

374
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:43,160
Speaker 2: one thing about it is that inter doesn't really need

375
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,400
Speaker 2: the win, right Like, of course they want to win,

376
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,520
Speaker 2: but if it's tied late point keeps them, keeps Milan

377
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 2: at arm's length. And you know, they're technically the home

378
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,399
Speaker 2: team here, but there's no home field advantage being the

379
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,840
Speaker 2: share a stadium, So overall, I'm passing here. The under

380
00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,400
Speaker 2: three would be the Look, that's what I'm gonna play

381
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 2: if it gets down to say one five. Right now,

382
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 2: it's sitting up near one to forty one forty five

383
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,960
Speaker 2: and that's not really worth it for me to play,

384
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:08,879
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna be looking for the under. If we

385
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,480
Speaker 2: can get three, do not want the two and a half.

386
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 2: And here, I just don't trust this league right now,

387
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,160
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna look for end to three.

388
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's that's where I'm looking too. Yeah, let's uh,

389
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 1: let's look across the rest of Italy. I'm gonna start first.

390
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,680
Speaker 1: I like Torino. John O Bett minus won twenty five

391
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 1: on the road at Udinesse Torino. I mean, it's a

392
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,119
Speaker 1: weekly to Reno bet for me. But you know, the

393
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:36,040
Speaker 1: gig continuing to put up just incredible underlying metrics in Syria.

394
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,879
Speaker 1: In fact, they've only lost the expected goals battle once

395
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 1: in their last twelve matches, and that was on the

396
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 1: road against inter So even their last match before the break,

397
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 1: I had them and they drew with Sa Swallow and

398
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 1: it was an ultimate smash and grab from to Swallow.

399
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,119
Speaker 1: At the very end, Torino won the expected goals battle

400
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 1: two point eight to point four, outshot to Swallow twenty

401
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:00,960
Speaker 1: one to six. You know, they just created one big

402
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 1: scoring chance that they didn't do anything for the entire

403
00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:04,880
Speaker 1: match one at the final, you know, in the eighty

404
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 1: eighth minute to draw one one. Torino is second in

405
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 1: Syria allowing only zero point eight non penalty expected goals

406
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 1: for match. They're also second shots a loud for ninety

407
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,919
Speaker 1: third and big scoring chances allowed. It's just an incredible defense.

408
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 1: It's also the number one pressing team in Italy by

409
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 1: passes per defensive action, which is very crucial again in

410
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 1: this matchup against Udinesse, who is nineteenth in offensive passes

411
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 1: per defensive action. Udinesse has also been really bad in

412
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 1: terms of their form over the past month. They've failed

413
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 1: to create over one expected goal in their last four

414
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 1: matches and they're only able to muster two shots against

415
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 1: a very poor Genawa team before the break. Udinesse defense

416
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,719
Speaker 1: isn't really that much better their twelfth and non penalty

417
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,439
Speaker 1: expected goals, and most importantly, they're nineteenth in passes per

418
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 1: defensive action and have forced the second fewest high turnovers

419
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 1: in Syria, which is important because if you're going to

420
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,159
Speaker 1: beat Torino. The one weakness, if you can call it

421
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 1: a weakness for them, is they tend to struggle a

422
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 1: tadbit against teams that will press them high at a

423
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,959
Speaker 1: successful rate. Torino also offensively has just thrashed the bottom

424
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 1: of the table one point six expected goals for match

425
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 1: in twelve matches and as a plus eight point one

426
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 1: expected goal toffrontal against the bottom half of the table.

427
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 1: So I think it's a little crazy that this is

428
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 1: kind of close to a pick them, even though it

429
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,439
Speaker 1: is on the road with an essay, So I have

430
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 1: to Reno projected as a minus one and four favorite,

431
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 1: So I love them. Drono bet at minus one twenty five,

432
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 1: and I believe you have another one of my favorite bets.

433
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 1: That's probably going to be one of the more painful

434
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 1: losses of our weekend.

435
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a little bit of juice on it. But

436
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 2: Laso and Fiorentina under three minus one thirty five. If

437
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 2: you can find one thirty one thirty five floating out there,

438
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't play at one forty one forty five.

439
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 2: That starts to get a little bit steep, but really

440
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 2: we're dealing with two of the most overrated attacks in

441
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,360
Speaker 2: all of Europe, not even just Italy, bit all of Europe.

442
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,239
Speaker 2: When we compare the fact that when you look at

443
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,920
Speaker 2: the goals minus expected goals table in Italy, these two

444
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,439
Speaker 2: teams are right at the top along with our favorite

445
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:59,880
Speaker 2: team Verona Latsio this season forty six goals from thirty expected.

446
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 2: That's just insane. That's fifty fifty percent, fifty percent more

447
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,640
Speaker 2: than that over performance we expect about five to ten

448
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 2: to be within reason. You could make a case fifteen.

449
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 2: Short term, you can see a team run hot, but

450
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 2: fifty is like three times more than what you'd expect.

451
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: Huorantina not quite as crazy, only forty one from thirty six,

452
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 2: but their defense has also been pretty unfortunate as well.

453
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 2: They now also, we should note, do not have Duzon Vlahovik,

454
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 2: which I know neither of us are that high on,

455
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 2: and people on Twitter were getting mad at me because

456
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: I was saying he's a little overrated and they're buying

457
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 2: high on him. I think he'll be fine at Uve.

458
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 2: I think he's definitely better than Alva Morozo, who has

459
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 2: had some really bad numbers this year. If Maroto has

460
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 2: had some pretty bad numbers this year, I'm not sure

461
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 2: what to expect from point. We do we do. We

462
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 2: love guys who have.

463
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 1: Some part records finish.

464
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he has seventeen goals for Fiorentina, the next

465
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 2: highest four h so you're dealing with a huge drop

466
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 2: off in terms of who gets the goals, and of

467
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: course five of those seventeen were penalties. So I really

468
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 2: think that this matches up well for it to be

469
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:10,120
Speaker 2: a pretty much a stalemate. Fiorentinos dominated the flat track

470
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,199
Speaker 2: bully they've been flat track bullies this year. When they

471
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,959
Speaker 2: played the better defenses in this league, which Lotsio is

472
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 2: an above average defense, they've struggled. They only created half

473
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 2: an expected goal in the first meeting it was one

474
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 2: zero loss. They struggled to create against Roma, struggled against

475
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 2: to Reno. So when they played these better teams you know, entered,

476
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 2: they struggled to create chances. And so I think that's

477
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 2: what's going to happen here. I don't see this getting

478
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 2: into four and so I like under three at minus

479
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 2: one thirty five.

480
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I'm right there with you. It's uh. I

481
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: was doing some writing for this one. Latsio their last

482
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:47,199
Speaker 1: I believe there's last six matches, fourteen goals off of

483
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 1: eight point three expected goles. It's just it's crazy how

484
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 1: hot they're running. And like you mentioned, you know, Lehovic

485
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 1: was thirty four percent of their expected goals created, even

486
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 1: though he did overperform. So they obviously brought in Arthur

487
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: Crabal from Ale as a replacement. I don't know if

488
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 1: he's going to fature this weekend, but I mean, this

489
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,199
Speaker 1: is just this is crazy. It's just this is this

490
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 1: is insane. This is one of my other favorite picks

491
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 1: up the weekend, and I'm gonna be in a puddle

492
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 1: if it ends, you know, four to three Fiorantina.

493
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 2: You already mentioned it. Another another potential fade spot. So

494
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 2: Swallow goes to Sampdoria on Monday. If you can summach it,

495
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 2: So Swallows another another luck box. I mean, they they

496
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 2: have had They've been getting beat down game after game,

497
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 2: and sometimes they get punished for it, and sometimes they

498
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 2: sneak out results. But they had a run of like

499
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 2: four or five games until they got blown out by

500
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 2: Bologna that they were you know, losing expecting goals, bottle

501
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 2: by more than a goal and winning games time games.

502
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: That's just not sustainable. And they did it again against

503
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 2: Tino right before the break. So and Scamaka is great,

504
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: like he's going to be a star. I actually think

505
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 2: he's better than Volkhovic. But there's not a ton to

506
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 2: like about that to Swallow defense and there they've been

507
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 2: getting kind of carved up. So I'm gonna look to fade.

508
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 2: The thing is, Sampdoria is so dead, so it's it's

509
00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: really hard.

510
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 1: All right, Let's uh, let's move on to Spain. There

511
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 1: is a huge match in La Liga. It's Barcelona versus

512
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: Athletico Madrid. Barcelona is plus one thirty five, Athletico sitting

513
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 1: at plus two ten, and the draw is at plus

514
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 1: two forty. I think you could describe Barcelona's transfer window

515
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: this January as desperate. They brought in Emerson Royale, Ada

516
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: montroy Aire and Pierre Emrick Abamaiyang, But I'm not sure

517
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:31,719
Speaker 1: if any of those guys are actually going a feature

518
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: in this match, as they just recently got to Barcelona. Obviously,

519
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 1: Barcelona has been improving greatly under shab one point five

520
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 1: to three expected goals for match compared to only point

521
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 1: eight allowed per match under him, But you know, playing

522
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: against a team like Athletico is a different animal. Athletico

523
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: has had Barcelona's number the past few seasons. They already

524
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 1: beat them to nothing this year and drew against them. Sorry,

525
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: they won last year and andrew against them. Bar has

526
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: failed to create over one point one expected goals in

527
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: any of those three matches. Athletico is the number one

528
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: defense in Spain by any metric that we look at.

529
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: They're only allowing point seventy to nine expected goals per match,

530
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: which is the third best mark among Europe's top five leagues.

531
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: I'm interested to see what the pace of this game

532
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: is going to be. Like my guess is going to

533
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: be it's gonna be pretty slow. Barcelona has the second

534
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: slowest sequence time and second most ten plus pass sequences

535
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: per opta. Athletico is obviously going to be perfectly fine,

536
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: you know, sitting back in a four to four two

537
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: and looking to counter Barcelona's defense. So I think this

538
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 1: is a pretty good chance to play an under two

539
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: and a half goals. In those last three meetings they

540
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: not more than two point five total expected goals were

541
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 1: created and I only have two point three goals projected.

542
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: So I do think there's some decent value on under

543
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 1: two and a half goals at plus one oh five.

544
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: Do you have anything for Barcelona Athletico Madrid.

545
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 2: I don't have a ton. I think the numbers about right.

546
00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: I really wanted to back Barcelona here, but I can't.

547
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 2: It's so rare we say this that Diego Simione teams

548
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 2: are underperforming their expected goals. He's been a luck box

549
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 2: for so many years. Now they're the opposite. I mean

550
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 2: since November sixth, which is an arbitrary date that I

551
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 2: picked for the entire league. But it happens to be

552
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 2: the day that Chabbi took over at Barcelona. They are

553
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 2: allowing about one point two goals per ninety, but they're

554
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 2: only allowing conceding about point eight XG eight against per ninety,

555
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: so they've been pretty unlucky, conceding well above what you expect.

556
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: O Block has not been as typical Oblock self, and

557
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 2: they've had some mostly bad luck. But now they're getting

558
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 2: a Barcelona team who we've talked about at nauseum on

559
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: this podcast. Javi has clearly got a system in place

560
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: that is effectively controlling games better than they were under Kuman,

561
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: But like we saw in the Kopa Super Cup match

562
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,439
Speaker 2: against Real Madrid, they can be ripped apart on the

563
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 2: counter at any moment, and I fear similar what happened

564
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,200
Speaker 2: the first time the Easter team's played, even though it

565
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: was Coman ed LETTI will just let them have the ball,

566
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: then take it and then exploit what's pretty mediocre defensive

567
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: personnel and midfield personnel and then just score on the

568
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 2: counter and not really ever be threatened. So the matchup

569
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 2: I don't love for Barsa and the number is not

570
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 2: good enough for me to play it, so I'm happy

571
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: to stay away here. I don't hate the under either.

572
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 2: I think Barsa does have some attacking regression coming and

573
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 2: they're they're going to explode at some point. But I

574
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 2: don't think the additions of Obama Yang and tri Or

575
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: really fit Obama Yang. You can make an arguments better

576
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 2: than lu de Yong, Okay, it's an upgrade. Adama isn't

577
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: a right back and he's not really a winger, so

578
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 2: it's tricky. I'm not sure about that. So we'll see

579
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: what happens in terms of Barcelona long term, still a

580
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,959
Speaker 2: team I like long term, but in this matchup problem passing.

581
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting. We'll see both these teams. Obviously are

582
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 1: are trailing Real Madrid by quite a large margin. But

583
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 1: Barcelona obviously still fighting for a top four, which you know,

584
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 1: if they don't finish top four and Lalia would be

585
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 1: devastating to them financially. But they somehow, you know, keep

586
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 1: finding money to buy.

587
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 2: They just keep pushing the can down the road. I

588
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 2: mean the Adama, the Adama thing, like they're not even

589
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 2: really paying him, yeah it's until next year, and then

590
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 2: Obama Yang, like they're pushing the money down the road.

591
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 2: It's very strange. I'm excited to see what Obambiyang does

592
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: in the system though, because I think he's cooked. Others

593
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: have told me they think it was it was our

594
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: Teta ball that was cooking him. We'll see what happens

595
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 2: in Spain here. Yeah, as an arts span I'm fine

596
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 2: letting him go, even if it's for free. I mean,

597
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: it's obviously something happened behind the scenes.

598
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: That was, you know, that made the relationship between him

599
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 1: and our Teta like, you know, irreversible. They obviously couldn't

600
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 1: get along or whatever it was. So it's sometimes you

601
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: just you know, obviously Arsenal's been playing a lot better

602
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: and they have a good team cohesion. So sometimes getting

603
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 1: a guy like that out to another team, even if

604
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: it's just for free, can have him be a net positive,

605
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: even if he didn't get any money for it. But

606
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: let's look around the rest of La Liga. Do you

607
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: have anything else in Spain this weekend?

608
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Osasuna is a home underdog against Sevilla. My favorite

609
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: team to fade right now. Savillas hold and strong second place.

610
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 2: They did get a draw with a with Valencia just

611
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 2: before the break, and they had a draw with Celta Vigo,

612
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: so you know they're starting to regress a little bit,

613
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 2: not quite winning every game one nil despite conceding multiple

614
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: expected goals. But really, I'm just not sure how much

615
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 2: better Sevilla is an Osasuna right now. And that sounds

616
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: crazy to say. They did add Anthony Marscial in the

617
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 2: transfer window, but soon since that November sixth date that

618
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: I mentioned. There's not really a point of demarcation for

619
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 2: why I picked that date, but Osasuna has been about

620
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: even an expected goals difference one point three four one

621
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: point one against Sevilla, only creating point seven expected goals

622
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 2: per ninety since November, So really question marks about this attack,

623
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 2: and I for that reason, I don't see how they're

624
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: road favored against an Osastun, a defense who's actually very

625
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 2: underrated in this league. So happy to take osasuon a

626
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 2: plus a quarter goal at minus one ten, mostly because

627
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 2: you took my favorite spot, which maybe my favorite spot

628
00:29:58,440 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 2: of the weekend.

629
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is yeah, this is crazy the line for

630
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: this one. I I'll just say I love Virel drawn No.

631
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 1: Bett plus one twenty on the road at Rial bettis

632
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: Viriel's performances since the start of December have maybe been

633
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 1: the best of anybody, maybe in Europe, definitely the best

634
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: of anybody in Spain. Their last eight matches, they're averaging

635
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: around two point three x g per match and only

636
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: allowing point seven to eight and they played Sevilla Reale

637
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: Associad and Athletico Madrid in three of those eight matches,

638
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: and that offensive run has now brought them up to

639
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: second in non penalty expected goals, behind only Real Madrid.

640
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: They're creating a one point five to six per match,

641
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: and the main reason for that is because they're creating

642
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: just gobs and gobs of big scoring chances thirty seven

643
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: so far on the season, which is huge against the

644
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: Real Bettess defense that has allowed the fifth most big

645
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: scoring chances in La Liga. Real Bettis is a great

646
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 1: offensive team, their third and non penalty expected goal second

647
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 1: in shots PERNETI. However, in the six matches that they've

648
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: played against the top seven teams in Spain, they've only

649
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 1: created four point three expected goals, so a lot of

650
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: their numbers are just stat padding against the bottom half

651
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: of the table. The last time these two teams met,

652
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: Viral completely dominated them one to one on expected goals,

653
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: two point nine too point five had thirty four touches

654
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 1: in their penalty area compared only twenty for real Bettas

655
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 1: and fifty progressive passes compared only twenty four for real Bettas.

656
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: So I think it's this is a great spot for

657
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: Viorel plus getting them as a slight underdog on the road.

658
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: I have them projected at plus one twenty nine, so

659
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: I love the value on them. Draw no bet at

660
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: plus one twenty.

661
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 2: I think the class game the last game was a

662
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 2: classic example, right, Like they were better than Espanyol yep,

663
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 2: but they you know, two point two one point seven

664
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 2: it was, but they scored like three quick goals, bang,

665
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 2: bang bang, kind of just bludging somebody score all your

666
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 2: shots for ten minutes and then dominate a game. But really,

667
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 2: the underlying performances on them are considerably worse. So I

668
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 2: also love Viial I already played it and you mentioned

669
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 2: it since December, Well how about since November sixth, my

670
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 2: favorite date? Plus one point four. Actually that is better

671
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 2: than the entire league, better than BEA Madrid by three

672
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 2: tenths per ninety So yeah, pretty impressive stuff I am.

673
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: And they're peaking just in time for our upset special

674
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: against Juventus.

675
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: Yep, and then the old Man and take down our

676
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: guy Vlahovic.

677
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 2: And they don't have KS. So I don't feel bad.

678
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, that's that's gonna be incredibly There's so many, like,

679
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 1: you know, we'll honestly get into the Champions League in

680
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 1: a few weeks, but there's so many interesting Champions League

681
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: matches now, Like looking back, you know two months ago

682
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: that we were like, oh man, that seems like you know,

683
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: lil and Chelsea. Looking at it now it's like, oh man,

684
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: that looks a little closer than we thought. Yeah, it's

685
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: just it's gonna be. It's gonna be fascinating a few

686
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: weeks for the Champions League. But you know, speaking of

687
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 1: lil Let's transition over to France, the one big match

688
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: in League on is lil the defending champions hosting PSG.

689
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: LIL is plus two ninety. PSG is a minus one

690
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: fifteen road favorite, and the draw is sitting at plus

691
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: two ninety five. I know Anthony's didn'na give me a

692
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: lot of agree for this, but I actually don't really

693
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: have anything for this one. I know, oh, this is

694
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: a perfect spot where I'd say, yes, let's you know,

695
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: let's take LIL. You know, I could go through all

696
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: of the hell they're they're underperforming and everything like that.

697
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: It's yeah, I have PSG projected at plus one oh one,

698
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 1: and you know people will know me. I'm a robot,

699
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: and you know, I just continue just follow whatever my

700
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: numbers say. And you know, for the PSG, as we

701
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: get deeper into this, you know season, we're gonna have

702
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: to start questioning motivation for them. They have eleven point

703
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: lead you know in the league on but this match,

704
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: I especially think they're gonna take very seriously. Obviously it's

705
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: against you know, the defending champs who throned them by

706
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 1: you know, one point last season. We'll see who's gonna

707
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,479
Speaker 1: be available for PSG. Martinhos Is, you know, coming back

708
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: to the international duty. I don't know if neymar Is

709
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 1: gonna play, so I might have to wait and see

710
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: what lineups come out. If we go back to when

711
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: these two teams met the first time, LIL dominated the

712
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: first half. You know, it was up one nothing at

713
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: the break. They held off PSG all the way to

714
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: the seventy fourth minute, and then you know, PSG, you know,

715
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: stole in the last twenty minutes, but all a four

716
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: point four expected goals were created in that match and

717
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: these are. But at the same time, these are two

718
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: of the best defensive teams by expected goals in League On,

719
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: So it's a tricky match for me. I I'm going

720
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: to stay away from LIL. You know, I watched their

721
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: entire game against Stat de Brestois right before the break

722
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: and it just infuriated me because I had LIL and

723
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 1: they just had so many chances they couldn't put anything away.

724
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 1: So we'll see. I'm just too many question marks with

725
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 1: with with both LIL and I'm guessing PSG is going

726
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: to take this bear seriously, So I'm going to pass

727
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 1: on this one. How are you playing LIL versus PSG?

728
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I'm disappointed. I know, I know because

729
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 2: every week on this show, you know, Mike and I

730
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 2: we don't do League on as much I'm I do

731
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 2: parachuting in. But the two common themes of this podcast

732
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: have been we bet LEO and we fade PSG. And

733
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: now we get to this spot, and I understand your

734
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 2: point about the number. Clearly the market is adjusting on

735
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 2: PSG because when these are teams played the first you

736
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 2: mentioned it the total was three and a quarter. Now

737
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 2: it's like two in zero point six point six y five,

738
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 2: Like it's between two and a half and two point

739
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: seventy five. That just shows you how much the market

740
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: has come down on this PSG team. And of course

741
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: we don't know all of the injury situation for them,

742
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 2: but Leo has had a clear plan and it's been

743
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 2: very effective each of the last four times they have

744
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: played PSG in the sense that they've either gotten a result,

745
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 2: covered you know, the spread, or been competitive. They beat

746
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: them early in the year in the beginning of the

747
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: season trophy de champions one nil. They held them at

748
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 2: Bay both meetings last year and like you said, dominated

749
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 2: large parts of that game and then crumbled late conceded.

750
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: I think it was like an eighty fifth minute winner.

751
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 2: So clearly they have a blueprint that works. They're at home.

752
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 2: They've had a down year, Leo. They're sitting, you know,

753
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 2: outside the top ten in the league. But this is

754
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 2: this is the all in spot, this is PSG at home.

755
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 2: This is the game of the year for them. They're

756
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 2: not going to be back in the Champions League, so

757
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 2: they'll have that to worry about down the road. When

758
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 2: they playing Chelsea in a couple of weeks, we'll be betting

759
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 2: them too. But this is the all in league spot,

760
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 2: and I think I love Leo plus a half at

761
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: minus one five.

762
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I figure, if I'm going to play this match,

763
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,280
Speaker 1: that's where I'm going to go with it. I would

764
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 1: I wouldn't touch PSG at all on the road here

765
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen, especially with you know, potentially no Naymar,

766
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 1: no Markinos. And obviously, you know, Messi has not been himself.

767
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 1: He's you know, created a lot of expected goals and

768
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: everything with with PSG and legon, but he just doesn't

769
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 1: really look like himself like he did at Barcelona.

770
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 2: But well, Messi, Messi has a hot Messi has a

771
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 2: hot finishing run coming. It would be very scary if I,

772
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 2: you know, maybe we're a team who had to play

773
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 2: them in a couple of weeks in the Champions League situation,

774
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 2: because that'll be great. Every year we do this thing

775
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 2: with PSG or with Messi a couple of years ago

776
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: that people did the same thing. It's like, oh, Messi's

777
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 2: Barcelona goal numbers are way down, but like his expected

778
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: goals were totally fine, where he's like oh Messi, you know,

779
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 2: he's really lost it, and then he just goes on

780
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 2: like an absurd run. I'm not saying he's going to

781
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: go on at that level because I agree with you.

782
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 2: His other numbers, like ball progression numbers and his dribbling

783
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 2: and carrying numbers are down a little bit. But in

784
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 2: terms of finishing, I have no doubt in my mind

785
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 2: that he's still one of the best finishers in the world.

786
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 2: So I think that hot run might come just in

787
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: time to Buoi PSG passed a certain other bogie team

788
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 2: that we have on this podcast.

789
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: That's going to be that's just going to be an incredible,

790
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 1: incredible two legs. Obviously, there's so many underlying stories that

791
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 1: are going on, the Ramos coming back to play Real Madrid,

792
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 1: killing him, Bope, his audition for Real Madrid, who's going

793
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: to sign for this summer. It's just there's so many

794
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: and obviously Messi coming back to torment Real Madrid one

795
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 1: more time. It's just so much, so many fun things

796
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 1: of that match. But we'll obviously get to that in

797
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: a few weeks. Around the rest of France, I'll start

798
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: I like Ren against Dodd de Bresois minus one and

799
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: minus one ten. Red is a really really good offensive

800
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 1: team in League ON. They're averaging one point six to

801
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 1: one non penalty expected goals per match, which is the

802
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,959
Speaker 1: second best mark in the league, averaging fifteen point one

803
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 1: shots per ninety if created thirty seven big scoring chances,

804
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 1: both which are top two in France. They should have

805
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 1: no creating chances against a breast defense that is seventeenth

806
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 1: in non penalty expected goals allowed and are allowing one

807
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 1: point seven to one expected goals per match against the

808
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 1: top half of the table. Additionally, one of the best players,

809
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 1: Roman Favre, was sold to lay On on deadline day.

810
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 1: He's a big part of their offense. He scored seven

811
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 1: goals dished out five assists this season, has a point

812
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,320
Speaker 1: four to eight xtgally plus expected assists rate, which is

813
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,760
Speaker 1: third best on the team, so losing him is pretty

814
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,479
Speaker 1: big for their offense and Brest. They don't really create

815
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 1: much from open play anyway. Eleven of their twenty eight

816
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 1: goals have either come off of penalties or set pieces

817
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 1: and the only average point eight eight x G per

818
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 1: ninety from open play. And Ren is second in League

819
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 1: ON in non penalty expected goals allowed and They're a

820
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 1: fantastic set piece defense. They've only allowed two on the season,

821
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 1: which is the lowest mark in France. Ren is also

822
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 1: much better at home than they are on the road,

823
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 1: plus ten point three expected goal differential in eleven home matches. Well,

824
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:02,320
Speaker 1: deve bresois Is has a minus six point seven expectacle

825
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 1: differential on the road. I have rents spread projected at

826
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 1: minus one point four to seven, so I love the

827
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: value on minus one at minus one ten. Do you

828
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 1: have anything from the rest of France.

829
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 2: I might have to ban send at the end. That'd

830
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 2: be the only look for me, John Oban. They did

831
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 2: win the miracle win, don't know how much. Yes, yes,

832
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: they took out Yeah, the the on Jay's luck box,

833
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 2: which you're going to back in a minute. Butlert, but yeah,

834
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 2: nothing from me here. I think I'll stick to my

835
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: tried and true PSG fade and grab some lil which

836
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: I think is a really fun spot.

837
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it'd be It's a it's a Sunday at two

838
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 1: forty five Eastern time. That'll be a fun no football

839
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 1: anymore on, so yeah, that'll be a fun one in

840
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 1: the middle of the afternoon. All right, let's move on

841
00:39:54,920 --> 00:40:00,120
Speaker 1: you mentioned it our favorite underdogs of the weekend. I'll play,

842
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 1: you know, quote Michael Leeboff as he does every week,

843
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: and tell everyone to proceed with caution on these These

844
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: teams are underdogs for a reason, but we have been

845
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 1: doing pretty well with these underdogs this season. I'll start.

846
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 1: You mentioned it on Jerra's Friday afternoon at three pm

847
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 1: Eastern on the road at one of my favorite teams, Marseille.

848
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: This is a really bad spot for Marseille. They've been

849
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: drastically over performing the last two months. They just lost

850
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 1: to Leone on Tuesday, which was their first League on

851
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 1: defeat in six matches. But in their last six matches

852
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 1: they've outscored their opponents seven to three, but only have

853
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 1: a plus point five expected goal differential. And that's really

854
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: nothing new for Marseille, who are so overdue for negative

855
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 1: aggression defensively, it's not even funny. They've allowed seventeen goals

856
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: total on the season, but I've conceded twenty five point

857
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 1: two expected goals. In fact, Marseille has allowed the ninth

858
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,479
Speaker 1: most big scoring chances in League One, but for some reason,

859
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: opponents just cannot put shots in the back of the

860
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 1: net against them. I mean I even went and looked

861
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 1: their goalkeeper, Powell Lopez only has a plus three point

862
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 1: four post shot x G plus minus. So it's just

863
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 1: really strange how teams just for whatever reason, just cannot

864
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 1: finish against Marseille. Their opponent, Andras is your typical mid

865
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: table league on side. They have a solid defense that

866
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,959
Speaker 1: is only allowing one point zero seven x G per

867
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: ninety They're also top seven in shots allowed per ninety minutes,

868
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 1: box centuries allowed and big scoring chances allowed. They typically

869
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 1: play out of a three four one two, which normally

870
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 1: morps back into a five to two one two, but

871
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 1: they've been very successful doing that. They have a plus

872
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 1: three point seventy three expected gold differential in a little

873
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 1: over one thousand minutes out of it this season. The

874
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: Andreiras offense is one of the worst in league on

875
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 1: but they will be getting back one of their best

876
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: players in sofa In Boofaal, who was representing Morocco at

877
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 1: the Africa Cup of Nations. His zero point six to

878
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,879
Speaker 1: two x G plus expected sis per ninety minute rates

879
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,240
Speaker 1: will be a huge boost to their offense on Friday.

880
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: This is just really not a great spot for Marseille

881
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 1: having to play on two days rest coming out of

882
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 1: the international break with their second leading scorer Bama Diang

883
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 1: who is still at Afcon representing Senegal, who just reached

884
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 1: the final beating Bokina Fasau. I have Andreiras projected at

885
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 1: plus three point fifty four, so I think there's some

886
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: value on them on the road to pull off the

887
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: upset at plus five hundred. What do you have, Anthony, Yeah.

888
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 2: We just talked about it, so I'm going to go

889
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 2: right back to it. Leo plus two ninety, This is

890
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 2: not a great board for me. For underdogs, I don't

891
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: love a ton on the board. Most of them were

892
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 2: right around like plus one ninety, plus two hundred. You know,

893
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 2: underdogs like Osasuna and Virial are close and those are

894
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 2: teams I like. But for me, plus two ninety at

895
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 2: home a chance to kind of defend their trophy for

896
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 2: the last time because the PSG is going to win

897
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 2: ligue on and all in home spot against what I

898
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 2: still think is a PSG team that's quite a bit overrated,

899
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: maybe shorthanded, and this Leo defense has a lot of

900
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 2: positive defensive regression coming. They've been very unlucky to concede

901
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 2: as many as they have this year. So if any

902
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 2: of that comes back and PSG has a bad finishing day,

903
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 2: I think Leo very live to win this. They've had

904
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 2: a lot of success against PSG in the past.

905
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: I agree. It's if I'm going to play anything that

906
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 1: it's going to be well. All right, let's move on

907
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 1: to our favorite bets of the entire weekend across the

908
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 1: European continent, Anthony, what is your favorite bet?

909
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,240
Speaker 2: Oh, so soon A plus a quarter of goal minus

910
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 2: one to ten at home against Sevilla. Sevilla's numbers since

911
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 2: November began. They've only created point seven expected goals per

912
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 2: ninety that's among the worst in all of La Liga.

913
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,759
Speaker 2: They're not even number one in crosses completed into the

914
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 2: penalty area anymore for the entire year, which just shows

915
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 2: you how far they've fallen, given how much this attack

916
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 2: usually relies on crosses into the area. They're not even

917
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 2: number one in their best attistics anymore. This soon A

918
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 2: defense top five and expected goals allowed top three in

919
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 2: ball recoveries. They work hard, they are very difficult to

920
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 2: break down. They've shown when they played Real Madridal this

921
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 2: year kept them off the board entirely. I think it's

922
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: a very underrated defense, and a Sevilla defense specifically that

923
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 2: has been very fortunate not to concede more and has

924
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 2: been vulnerable on the counter attack. Very unusual for a

925
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 2: low potage type team, but they've been very vulnerable there.

926
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 2: So I like Ossuna plus a quarter goal minus one

927
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,399
Speaker 2: ten and hopefully we can keep winning with these best bets.

928
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 2: We were up a little over fourteen units for the year.

929
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see if Anthony Marcill We'll save that Sevilla

930
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: offense came over from May United on alone for the

931
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 1: next six months. I'm going to stay in Spain. I

932
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 1: love via Real. John Obett plus one twenty on the

933
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: road at Rial bettis this vireal team. You can make

934
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: the argument they've been maybe the most impressive team over

935
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: the past months. The last eight matches two point three

936
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 1: expected goals per match, only allowing point seven to eight,

937
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 1: an incredible offense that is averaging one point five to

938
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 1: six non penaltyu expected goals match, now the second best

939
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: mark in La Liga, behind only Real Madrid. The main

940
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: reason for that is because they've created a whopping thirty

941
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: seven big scoring chances on the season, and that's huge

942
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,760
Speaker 1: against a Real Bettis defense that has allowed the fifth

943
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 1: moste big scoring chances. Real Bettis is a good offense

944
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: their third and non toenally expected goals second in shots

945
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 1: for ninety, but they tend to struggle when they have

946
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 1: to play the top half of the table. In six

947
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 1: matches against the top seven teams in Spain, they've only

948
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: created four point three expected goals, so a lot of

949
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,800
Speaker 1: their good offensive numbers have been stat padding against the

950
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: bottom half of the table. When these two teams met

951
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: earlier in the season, Virel completely dominated Rial Bettis. They

952
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 1: won two to nothing and one unexpected goals two point

953
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 1: nine two point five. I have Veril projected as a

954
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: slight favorite, so I love their drawn no betline at

955
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 1: plus one twenty. So that'll do it for another episode

956
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: of Wonder Goal. Thank you all for listening. Make sure

957
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: to subscribe, leave a five star review, say something negative

958
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 1: about us if you want to. As long as you

959
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: leave a five star review, make sure you download the

960
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 1: Action Network app and we'll have a ton of content

961
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:53,879
Speaker 1: this weekend on the Action network dot com, from best

962
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: bets to my projections and everything in between. For Anthony Dubundo.

963
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 1: I'm BJ Cunningham. We'll be back on Monday previewing the

964
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 1: midweek slate of Premier League matches, So good luck with

965
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 1: your weekend wagers and we'll see you all on Monday