Speaker 1: The Volume.
Speaker 2: This week on Prime Cuts, John Middelcoff on brock Perty's
Speaker 2: postseason struggles. Chad Milman Sharper Square in my top takes
Speaker 2: of the week. Vegas should get more Super Bowls. Let's
Speaker 2: all agree on that. All right, welcome in. We're gonna
Speaker 2: have Chad Milman Sharper Square. You know him from the
Speaker 2: CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I
Speaker 2: spent Wednesday night, flew in, flew back for the volume
Speaker 2: party and the overriding theme. Now this is from just
Speaker 2: advertisers and friends, media colleagues. A couple of players was
Speaker 2: that why don't they hold all the Super Bowls in
Speaker 2: Las Vegas? For years and years, this was a big stigma.
Speaker 2: Remember years ago Tony Romo wanted to do some fantasy
Speaker 2: football league in the NFL wouldn't allow it. It was
Speaker 2: always ridiculous. Vegas has legalized gambling, but told the NBA
Speaker 2: warned them about Tim Donneghey, they don't want stigma around gambling.
Speaker 2: It's the gambling sports gambling mecca of the United States.
Speaker 2: So there's been a lot of gambling controversies, very few
Speaker 2: have been in Las Vegas. They're on the alert for scammers.
Speaker 2: So finally they put hockey in there, and now football
Speaker 2: it's all crushing and there's no problem with the Raiders.
Speaker 2: Players make so much money. Now I worry more about
Speaker 2: collegiate players and that stuff, and officials and that stuff,
Speaker 2: and even you know, That's why I always felt the
Speaker 2: NFL should, you know, make officials full time employees, because
Speaker 2: it holds them to a higher level of accountability. Not
Speaker 2: that they don't feel accountable, but you know, it's the
Speaker 2: difference between being in a company and being a consultant.
Speaker 2: There's a different responsibility, a different level, and I think
Speaker 2: you always have to have your eye out for stuff.
Speaker 2: We saw the college football player at LSU. College kids,
Speaker 2: they're trying to make ends, meet their stars in college
Speaker 2: pre nil, I always felt there was probably a player
Speaker 2: too on every roster that was taking a more than
Speaker 2: a ham sandwich in a twenty. But you just don't know,
Speaker 2: and so you can't speculate an individual players or teams.
Speaker 2: But I think Vegas and Miami are perfect. Phoenix nothing
Speaker 2: against it, but you've got Scottsdale over there, Glendale over there,
Speaker 2: downtown Phoenix. They cut it into threes. Miami's got perfect weather,
Speaker 2: New Orleans is fine. Although New Orleans. To spend a
Speaker 2: week in New Orleans, you kind of run out of
Speaker 2: things to do besides drink and eat. And I think
Speaker 2: Las Vegas. I mean you can you can golf, The
Speaker 2: golf is stunning, you can gamble, you can shop. I mean,
Speaker 2: if you wanted to a couple of days go to
Speaker 2: Los Angeles, it's a forty minute flight. So I think
Speaker 2: Vegas is a perfect spot. I think the stigma would
Speaker 2: legalized gambling was always silly. I mean, there are those
Speaker 2: of us that I've been talking about gambling on the
Speaker 2: air my entire career. There's no stigma. Every guy I
Speaker 2: know gambles. I gamble everybody I know, and I gamble responsibly.
Speaker 2: I think ninety nine percent of people do. Do people
Speaker 2: eat responsibly? Do they always drink responsibly? Do they always
Speaker 2: drive responsibly? There's always going to be people that are irresponsible.
Speaker 2: But I think Vegas works, and especially having a covered stadium.
Speaker 2: You know, Dallas can get really cold in the winter.
Speaker 2: In Miami does not. It rains, but it doesn't get
Speaker 2: terribly cold. So if you know this idea that you
Speaker 2: have to mix it up around the country, no, you
Speaker 2: don't we hold Marty Gron one place. You know, Rock
Speaker 2: and Eve in one place. A lot of Hollywood Awards
Speaker 2: are in one place. You have to move everything. You
Speaker 2: don't have to. Super Bowl would be two three places.
Speaker 2: I'd be totally okay with it. And I just think
Speaker 2: from the people I talked to. I talked to about
Speaker 2: four former players, about three current players, members of the media, advertisers,
Speaker 2: and everybody said, this is the hotel capital of North America.
Speaker 2: There's great restaurants everywhere, There's multiple things to do. I
Speaker 2: remember going to a super Bowl in Jacksonville where they
Speaker 2: literally had one hotel. They had to bring in cruise
Speaker 2: ships and they ended up with a Super Bowl. I
Speaker 2: never bought into this. Well, you got to share the
Speaker 2: super Bowl. I don't want it in Kansas City. It's
Speaker 2: too cold in February. Let's put the best players in
Speaker 2: the world under a dome in cold weather or in
Speaker 2: warm weather. Don't let the weather dictate the outcome. The
Speaker 2: weather bad weather, ows's always punishes the greater quarterbacks, you know.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's like you, you don't want to reduce
Speaker 2: the effectiveness of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady in their prime.
Speaker 2: It's December games happen, but if you can avoid it
Speaker 2: with a neutral field game, you don't schedule potential blizzards.
Speaker 2: All right, John Middlecoff, his podcast at the volume is
Speaker 2: three and out, former NFL scout. All right, let's talk
Speaker 2: about a little bit about the Super Bowl. But I
Speaker 2: really want to dial in on brock Purty. So I
Speaker 2: saw a stat that was interesting. I don't think you
Speaker 2: deny this. Five of the eight playoff quarters for brock
Speaker 2: Purty have not been good, and they've been a favorite,
Speaker 2: and they've been at home. So brock Purty's rate of
Speaker 2: negatively graded dropbacks in the playoffs has been twenty three percent.
Speaker 2: So that's bad. That would have been the worst in
Speaker 2: the NFL of any quarterback with two hundred plus dropbacks.
Speaker 2: He's been bad in the playoffs. He's had a couple
Speaker 2: of great late drives Mahomes who had a much much
Speaker 2: lower a very good negative dropback rate, right, very few.
Speaker 2: It's been even better in the playoffs. It's like six
Speaker 2: percent to Perty's twenty three percent. And he's gone on
Speaker 2: the road twice against you know, Green Bay's defense and
Speaker 2: Detroit's defense. I mean, one's crap. The other ones average
Speaker 2: Buffalo's defense and the Baltimore defenses, especially Baltimore's much better
Speaker 2: than Green Band Detroit. So Mahomes against much better defenses
Speaker 2: on the road, has almost no negative dropbacks almost none.
Speaker 2: Purty at home against bad defenses has an egregiously bad
Speaker 2: negative dropback rate. So my take is I think this
Speaker 2: Kansas City's defense is elite. Most people just don't know
Speaker 2: anybody outside of maybe Snead and Chris Jones, but they
Speaker 2: can fricking move if Purty struggles, and I like the
Speaker 2: under is my favorite bet in this game. I think
Speaker 2: it's low scoring. If Purty struggles, I mean, really coughs
Speaker 2: it up. Could you argue Kyle Goes he got outplayed
Speaker 2: for three quarters by Love, outplayed by two and a
Speaker 2: half quarters by lousy in the Super Bowl, that Sam
Speaker 2: Donald would go into camp battling Purty and whoever played
Speaker 2: better would win that job.
Speaker 1: Well, I think that is a big swing guy for him,
Speaker 1: because I was text with some people. Sam just signed
Speaker 1: a one year contract and the forty nine ers love him,
Speaker 1: but so does Adam Peters, who's now in Washington. And
Speaker 1: you know, maybe depending on who you draft, you bring him,
Speaker 1: you pay him a little bit more money. You kind
Speaker 1: of make him the bridge quarterback. You let that guy
Speaker 1: kind of ease into his NFL career. So that is
Speaker 1: a team to watch. When it comes to Sam Donald,
Speaker 1: I do think the forty nine ers are very very
Speaker 1: loyal to this guy. They really like him. Like one
Speaker 1: thing happened when Trey Lance was pretty bad for them
Speaker 1: in his starts, the team never really gravitated toward him.
Speaker 1: And when I say the team, I mean they're Star
Speaker 1: Corps players that group like He's beloved in the locker
Speaker 1: room and brock perty and that buys you a lot
Speaker 1: of juice with this team. Trent William, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa,
Speaker 1: George Kittle, Deebo, Samuel Brandon, Ayuk. I mean, these guys
Speaker 1: are not going anywhere, and they're some of the best
Speaker 1: players in the league. The other thing is Kyle is
Speaker 1: even in the struggles when you can run his offense.
Speaker 1: That was the problem with Troy. He like had to
Speaker 1: change his offense, and He's like, my whole thing is
Speaker 1: my offense. So I was that's why they loved Party,
Speaker 1: And I'm sure you saw the story. Jed Yorke told
Speaker 1: him that Kyle in twenty twenty two in training camp
Speaker 1: said eight, I think the best this is like two
Speaker 1: weeks in, the best quarterback on the roster. This guy
Speaker 1: we just drafted the seventh round. They're like what and
Speaker 1: he was. He wasn't making that up now, I was
Speaker 1: going to those practices. It's hard to tell because he's
Speaker 1: running with the threes. But they kept him on the
Speaker 1: roster for a reason, like the coach really liked him.
Speaker 1: The rain situation in Green Bay, he was really bad.
Speaker 1: I do think the second half against Detroit, like I
Speaker 1: thought their defense really let him down. The forty nine
Speaker 1: Ers are an offensive team. When you go back to
Speaker 1: the last Super Bowl these two teams played, the Niners
Speaker 1: were a defensive team and the Chiefs were an unreal
Speaker 1: offensive team. Well look at this this year. The Niners
Speaker 1: are the third scoring offense. They're very dependent on Brock
Speaker 1: playing well in scoring a lot of points because their
Speaker 1: defense the last couple of weeks it's reruly been leaking
Speaker 1: oil for a while. And the Chiefs are the number
Speaker 1: two overall scoring defense. So this is actually a clash
Speaker 1: between the forty nine Ers offense and the Chiefs defense.
Speaker 1: But their offense goes as Brock play. So when he's
Speaker 1: a little off. Their defense is no longer dominant, So yeah,
Speaker 1: it's not for them to win the Super Bowl. To me,
Speaker 1: he's got to be way better than he was because
Speaker 1: I don't have as much face on the faith on
Speaker 1: the defense. John Lynch was just their defensive coordinator was
Speaker 1: saying they were embarrassed by the effort in the NFC
Speaker 1: Championship game. So the defense is going through some stuff.
Speaker 1: Now when Deebo's healthy, they have so many options and
Speaker 1: you can run the ball with Christian McCaffrey. They throw
Speaker 1: a lot of quick screens. They just need Brocking out
Speaker 1: to turn it over. And that's the one thing. He's
Speaker 1: got a lot of turnover worthy plays. And when he
Speaker 1: was really humming throughout the season, when they were beating
Speaker 1: the shit out of Dallas and Philly, he was not
Speaker 1: doing that. So it just depends what guy you get.
Speaker 1: And this gets back to and I'm sure when the
Speaker 1: draft gets closed and when the draft happens, the character
Speaker 1: of these guys, the mindset of these guys. Brock's a
Speaker 1: pretty serious dude. So like he's gone through like it's
Speaker 1: been a rough little stretch for him, but I think
Speaker 1: they like where he's at mentally, and I have actually
Speaker 1: more faith in him, the guy and the wiring than
Speaker 1: I do sometimes the physical attributes. Obviously, he's a pretty
Speaker 1: good runner, but his arm, you know, it can be
Speaker 1: a little hit or missed sometimes.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I always said Dak Prescott's intangibles or an A.
Speaker 2: His tangibles are like A C plus B minus, like
Speaker 2: he moves over. I mean, he really throws an average ball,
Speaker 2: you know. I think the other thing with Brock Purty,
Speaker 2: if I was a Niner fan, I'd be a little concerned.
Speaker 2: Is Andy Reiden's bags two weeks? Is that pretty rain
Speaker 2: struggled road not as good big games. He's been a
Speaker 2: tad tight people. Also, John, they have more film. You
Speaker 2: got a lot on Brock now, whereas with Garoppolo we
Speaker 2: knew his limitations. That's why I think Brock pretty moving
Speaker 2: is essential because it doesn't matter how much film you have.
Speaker 2: If you can move, you can move. You don't know
Speaker 2: when it's coming. But I think I do think Spags
Speaker 2: and I think the Chiefs have the best corners in
Speaker 2: the league. I think if they can generate a pass rush,
Speaker 2: you know, if I was facing Purty, my takeaway would
Speaker 2: be crowd Debo. Take out the bubble screens, be prepared
Speaker 2: for him. Don't let him run brock On play actions
Speaker 2: to stop the run. Take your chances with Ayuk over
Speaker 2: the top. If he beats you, he beats you. But
Speaker 2: take away take those bubble screens away from Debo where
Speaker 2: he's a train downhill. I don't know. I don't think
Speaker 2: San Francisco is going to generate a ton of offense.
Speaker 2: You've acknowledged that San Francisco's pass rush is really it's
Speaker 2: kind of hit and miss outside of Bosa.
Speaker 1: I think ideally Kyle Seanahan at his core is wired
Speaker 1: like a guy from the eighties or the nineties, like
Speaker 1: his dad. He wants to run the ball, and they
Speaker 1: run the ball to do two things. Established just a
Speaker 1: physical you know, set the tone physically and prove that
Speaker 1: we're tougher than you. And then their entire passing game
Speaker 1: is off that all the play action stuff that leads
Speaker 1: to a lot of easy completions. It's why when they're
Speaker 1: successful running the ball with McCaffrey, their offense can look
Speaker 1: pretty easy because guys get wide open because you're biting
Speaker 1: on the run. And then guys they have so much
Speaker 1: talent with their offensive weapons. When you can slow down
Speaker 1: the run, it throws them off a little bit. So
Speaker 1: to me, it kind of starts with Christian McCaffrey. It's
Speaker 1: why a lot of people are saying he was the
Speaker 1: MVP threat the year because he is, I mean, he's
Speaker 1: one of the best players in the league. They said
Speaker 1: something on the AFC Championship game it was either nance
Speaker 1: or Romo that the Chiefs led the league this year
Speaker 1: and batted passes at the line of scrimmage like their
Speaker 1: defensive line. Well, what happened a couple times against the Lions.
Speaker 1: Hutchinson's like six foot seven, batted a couple of balls down.
Speaker 1: Do they bat four balls down? Well, if you only
Speaker 1: get twenty eight to thirty pass attempts, or you know,
Speaker 1: Kyle ideally would be twenty five, that's four wasted passes, right,
Speaker 1: Or does it happen once? Because sometimes Kyle's schemed pass
Speaker 1: is why it's gonna work, either as a big first
Speaker 1: down or an explosive play. If you tip that ball,
Speaker 1: and you can with Brock because he's a shorter player,
Speaker 1: it can throw you off. That's some little thing to
Speaker 1: keep an eye on because they bat a lot of
Speaker 1: balls and Brocass the balls to get bad and so
Speaker 1: do they try it. I don't ever understand wy Kyle
Speaker 1: doesn't move it now. His offense is not a drop
Speaker 1: back passing game where they do right now sprint options.
Speaker 1: But I would try to get him on the move
Speaker 1: a little bit more, but they just that's not really
Speaker 1: part of the Shanahan you know operation.
Speaker 2: Well, we haven't talked to Jason Timp for a long time.
Speaker 2: Jason is one of those gems we found hunting through
Speaker 2: podcast after podcast Hoops Tonight host. He's done just a
Speaker 2: remarkable job for us. His growth has been exponential. So
Speaker 2: I watched the entire game Lakers Nicks. Now Og didn't
Speaker 2: play in Randall, but I mean the Lakers beat the
Speaker 2: so Celtics without Lebron and Ad so Julius Randall shouldn't
Speaker 2: be the difference. I think Grimes was out. But my
Speaker 2: takeaway and the Knicks is this, First of all, I
Speaker 2: always thought Jalen Brunson was a one A Maybe he's
Speaker 2: a one twenty seven a game. I love his leadership,
Speaker 2: his IQ, his toughness. I think he's the best Nick
Speaker 2: sent youwing. It was never a huge Carmelo fan didn't
Speaker 2: give you anything on the second on the defensive end,
Speaker 2: and a little bit selfish, wouldn't step back and hit
Speaker 2: threes for years. He just got stubborn on the twos.
Speaker 2: So if Bronson's an A, I do believe you need
Speaker 2: a very strong two. I think Og and Randall are threes.
Speaker 2: Good threes. And at the end of that game, if
Speaker 2: Brunson's not hitting, forget Randall because Randall would be slowed
Speaker 2: down by a D. He's not getting any cheap points.
Speaker 2: Eight He's the best low post defender in the game.
Speaker 2: And I look at the Knicks and what I've seen
Speaker 2: Jason in the last three years with them is patience.
Speaker 2: And part of me is like, just go get a two,
Speaker 2: And then part of me is like, no, that's the
Speaker 2: nixt You've been desperate, Amari Stodemeier. You always reach on people.
Speaker 2: Is there a player in the league if not this
Speaker 2: trade deadline, next trade deadline, because I think they needed
Speaker 2: to so address if you think the Knicks do. If
Speaker 2: Brunton's not hitting late like he wasn't against the Lakers, boy,
Speaker 2: they go dry fast. I mean they go drive fast.
Speaker 2: Now Randal didn't play, but I don't think Og or
Speaker 2: Randall are elite scores per se.
Speaker 3: Is the perfect way to put it, because they could
Speaker 3: have jumped on one of those things where it's at
Speaker 3: the time of the trade, we didn't realize Brunson was
Speaker 3: this good, So like maybe internally they were like Brunson's
Speaker 3: our guy, and maybe that was some of the reasoning
Speaker 3: behind it. But the point is is waiting ended up
Speaker 3: being smart because then Jalen Brunston popped and now they
Speaker 3: can kind of be more patient in terms of waiting
Speaker 3: for who that next guy is. I thought the og
Speaker 3: Innobi trade was was genius because it didn't waste any
Speaker 3: sort of super legitimate asset in terms of their pursuit
Speaker 3: of an eventual star. I think one of the reasons
Speaker 3: why that Laker game looked the way it did is
Speaker 3: the Knicks are very much like a physically imposing team,
Speaker 3: Like they are very much like a power beat you
Speaker 3: up for forty eight minutes, classic Tom Thibodeo type of team, right,
Speaker 3: and when you take Og and Julius out, they just
Speaker 3: become small really fast, especially with Mitchell Robinson out of
Speaker 3: the lineup because he's been injured, although he might come
Speaker 3: back before the end, but I mean, this won't come
Speaker 3: as any secret to anybody who's listened to you and
Speaker 3: me talk about this before, but we're both really high
Speaker 3: on Jaylen Brunson, and I think like I think Jalen
Speaker 3: Brunson has entered into that conversation with the best guards
Speaker 3: in the league. Like I think he's just on that tier.
Speaker 3: We're we're on an extended stretch now where he not
Speaker 3: only that he's improving and like to take it even
Speaker 3: a step further.
Speaker 1: Look at the.
Speaker 3: Playoffs last year absolutely straight up out played Donovan Mitchell
Speaker 3: head to head and won a series, and he went
Speaker 3: to I think he is too.
Speaker 2: I think, frankly, Jason, I think he's a better player
Speaker 2: than Nonovan Mitchell. He's not quite. I don't think he's quite.
Speaker 2: I shouldn't even say this anymore. I gotta, I gotta
Speaker 2: get over this. I think he's a better leader. I
Speaker 2: think he plays with a very steady temperament. I know
Speaker 2: exactly what I get from Jalen Brunson every game I
Speaker 2: watch him. Donovan, I get I get stretches where I
Speaker 2: get he just like forgets his teammates. I think Brunson
Speaker 2: is a top you can name it, but I think
Speaker 2: he New York Loud. He's classic Villanova tunes out the noise.
Speaker 3: To Donovan Mitchell's credit, he's having the best season of
Speaker 3: his credit. We are literally I'm sorry, he's having the
Speaker 3: best defensive season. He's out of his career. Well, I
Speaker 3: want to give Donovan Mitchell some credit, but I agree
Speaker 3: with you. Jalen Brunson is a better basketball player than him.
Speaker 3: But then he also went toe to toe with Jimmy Butler.
Speaker 3: The reason why they couldn't beat the Heat last year
Speaker 3: was Julius Randall was a complete non factor in that
Speaker 3: postseason run. Now, in his defense, he was hurt. He
Speaker 3: had hurt his ankle right before the playoffs and was
Speaker 3: pretty beat up throughout that playoff run. But to your point,
Speaker 3: the Knicks have already shown us they can make some
Speaker 3: noise with just Jalen Jyleen Brunson, so you can imagine
Speaker 3: what a number two would do for them. Now, the
Speaker 3: question is who The guy that I know that they've
Speaker 3: been waiting on is Joel Embiid. But I do get
Speaker 3: somewhat concerned about with his injury history. Now like here
Speaker 3: we are again with him with his knee struggling to
Speaker 3: make it through a regular season. But I think Joel
Speaker 3: Embiid is a guy that had their eyes on I
Speaker 3: think if the war, if the Lakers just absolutely like
Speaker 3: floundered this year, like just an absolute disaster end of
Speaker 3: the season, I put like a like a five percent
Speaker 3: chance that someone like Lebron could potentially either opt out
Speaker 3: of his deal this summer and sign there on like
Speaker 3: a mid level exception, or opt in and do the
Speaker 3: James Harden where basically you opt in and ask for
Speaker 3: a trade and then try to do that Because I
Speaker 3: look at Lebron James as basically, even at this phase
Speaker 3: of his career, just a way better version of Julius Randall,
Speaker 3: which kind of is a shoe in fit to that position,
Speaker 3: you know what I mean. So like, but I think
Speaker 3: I think when it comes to the next patience has
Speaker 3: been the name of the game. Jalen Brunson has bought
Speaker 3: them the ability to be good while they wait for
Speaker 3: the right guy. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 3: there's no reason to jump at anything unless it is
Speaker 3: the I wouldn't trade for a single guy unless he
Speaker 3: was better than Jalen Brunson. It literally is that simple.
Speaker 3: That's right to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Brunson is the future of the Knicks.
Speaker 2: And you know, there's a lot of people that are
Speaker 2: you know you hear this. I think it was said
Speaker 2: about Jalen Brunson.
Speaker 1: He's a little guy.
Speaker 2: You don't win championships with little guys. And the NBA
Speaker 2: is getting bigger. I mean, there's a certain recent formula
Speaker 2: size in the league. But I gotta tell you, as
Speaker 2: the league gets younger, I think there's an increasing value
Speaker 2: in maturity and leadership as the league gets younger. It's
Speaker 2: why Lebron is so valuable. And I think Tatum. In
Speaker 2: New York, you can get lost in that city. I
Speaker 2: mean that shit, that city eats guys up like that
Speaker 2: if you're not. I mean, I remember guys like Jeremy Shack.
Speaker 2: I mean that's why the great Jeremy Shockey was a
Speaker 2: great New York giant. Just not ready for the city
Speaker 2: quite right. If you go to the history of New York,
Speaker 2: go look at their stars. Jeter, Aaron Judge, Eli Manning,
Speaker 2: what's the theme go home? All about the sport, grown
Speaker 2: ups with the media, good background, adult, you know, relationships
Speaker 2: with family. It's funny. Jeter close to his family, Eli Manning,
Speaker 2: Brunson's dad in the NBA, Aaron Judge. A lot of
Speaker 2: times they're small town guys. If you come to New
Speaker 2: York as a star a Rod, you're a big free
Speaker 2: agent and you get all this expectation, it eats you up.
Speaker 2: Jalen's the opposite cast off for Dallas. All he has
Speaker 2: to do is prove stuff. Like Villanova, he is your classic.
Speaker 2: I mean, Eli Manning went to Ole, Miss Jeter, struggled
Speaker 2: in the minor leagues. Who's Aeron Judge. He's from Fresno,
Speaker 2: New York. Has a proto type. You're a little overlooked, undervalued,
Speaker 2: good background, family college. I think that's so the league's
Speaker 2: getting so young that these older players that can bring
Speaker 2: maturity to me. Jason. I mean, it's just it's like
Speaker 2: it's like I say about Lebron. It's like Lebron, it
Speaker 2: could be a you know, he's like a coach, general manager,
Speaker 2: star on the floor. He's thinking about who am I,
Speaker 2: who should I have relationships with, Who can I elevate,
Speaker 2: who should be on the floor with me. I mean
Speaker 2: he's thinking through every possession.
Speaker 3: Credit like he signed and I think it was a
Speaker 3: little different about the quarterback contract. Value that the MAVs
Speaker 3: offered him was pretty close to what the Knicks offered him.
Speaker 3: He straight up said, I want it, I want the pressure,
Speaker 3: I want like he he signed up for what New
Speaker 3: York brought to the table, and he's not just thrived
Speaker 3: in that environment, he's completely exceeded expectations. We have a
Speaker 3: couple of big Knicks that helped produce soups tonight, and
Speaker 3: I talked with them about this behind the scenes, and like,
Speaker 3: it's crazy how that one singular signing transformed the entire
Speaker 3: landscape of the Knicks future because they got like, think
Speaker 3: about Jalen Brown just signed a deal where in the
Speaker 3: final year he's gonna make like seventy million, Okay, like
Speaker 3: in Jalen Brunson's making in the twenties, and he's giving
Speaker 3: you superstar production. Like it's it's crazy what that one
Speaker 3: move has done for that franchise.
Speaker 2: Let's bring in Chad Millman CCO Action Network. All is
Speaker 2: provided by DraftKings. I actually think this is an intriguing
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. So the Niners last time here were a
Speaker 2: stacked defensive roster limitations offensively. Now they're historically gifted a
Speaker 2: top five running back ever CMC top left tackle five ever,
Speaker 2: a top ten tight end ever. Deebo is one of
Speaker 2: the top multi usage players I can ever remember. I mean,
Speaker 2: they win seventy percent of the games with him, forty
Speaker 2: seven percent without him. And then you have Brandon Ayuk,
Speaker 2: who has really surged this year to become an elite
Speaker 2: top seven eight wide receiver. In fact, the weakness you
Speaker 2: would say is, well, the quarterback doesn't throw a great
Speaker 2: deep ball. Quarterbacks not great if the weather's bad. But
Speaker 2: I think Kansas City's defense generally great defenses. We think
Speaker 2: of them Ray Lewis. We can name the players. You know, Bosa,
Speaker 2: but kiss Richard Dent. You can name great players from
Speaker 2: great defenses. Right, Kansas City are like well, I like
Speaker 2: Chris Jones, best corners in the league, incredibly active wide receivers,
Speaker 2: multiple paths. They had nine more sacks than the Niners,
Speaker 2: twenty six more pressures. I think this is an all
Speaker 2: time classic gifted offense and one of the most undervalued
Speaker 2: defenses I can ever remember. So I like the under
Speaker 2: forty seven and a half. I think there's gonna be
Speaker 2: yards and explosion plays, but not a lot of timetowns.
Speaker 4: What do you think I think you've hit on all
Speaker 4: of the things that make this such an interesting game
Speaker 4: to analyze for betters. Take this game, put it in
Speaker 4: week five, make the Niners two point favorites. No one's
Speaker 4: betting it. It'd be like, yeah, it seems about right.
Speaker 4: I don't really see an edge, But because it's the
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, people feel like they need to figure out
Speaker 4: what side they want to be on, and they are
Speaker 4: ignoring the total. I will tell you right now. Professional
Speaker 4: betters have been coming in on the under in this
Speaker 4: game for ten days at this point, and it's really interesting.
Speaker 4: The over up until about forty eight hours ago was
Speaker 4: getting fifty seven, fifty eight to fifty nine percent of
Speaker 4: the tickets, meaning that's what the squares the public are doing,
Speaker 4: and the under was getting about sixty percent of the money.
Speaker 4: That's professional betters. In the last forty eight hours, the
Speaker 4: under is now also getting the majority of the tickets,
Speaker 4: and the under is getting the majority of the money.
Speaker 4: So I do think you'll see this number go down
Speaker 4: a little bit. I bet the under. I will probably
Speaker 4: end up being heavier on the under than I will
Speaker 4: on the side.
Speaker 2: I like Kansas City plus two, the Mahomes factor and
Speaker 2: Andy Reid with extra time. But I do think there's
Speaker 2: something that's fairly obvious is that in five of eight
Speaker 2: quarters in the playoffs, and I judge that against average
Speaker 2: defenses Detroit Green Bay at home, Brock Purty was incredibly pedestrian.
Speaker 2: Mahomes at Buffalo at Baltimore minus twenty seven degrees didn't
Speaker 2: have a bad quarter. I can't wrap my brain around
Speaker 2: Brock pretty struggling against significantly less talented defenses at home.
Speaker 2: He'll be nervous. Kyle Shanahan may be tight. Given the
Speaker 2: history this defense is they allowed teen points a game
Speaker 2: in a league that has pivoted in a conference with
Speaker 2: all the best quarterbacks in the league that's pivoted offense.
Speaker 2: And if you go look at who the Chiefs faced,
Speaker 2: it was, it was Golf, it was Trevor Lawrence, it
Speaker 2: was Jalen Hurts, it was Josh Allen, regular and post.
Speaker 2: They never allowed over thirty points. The Niners did three times,
Speaker 2: and they mostly faced Sam Howells, Gino, Drew Lock. Like
Speaker 2: I think the gap in defense, you just know some
Speaker 2: of the Niner players. I don't think it's a great defense,
Speaker 2: do you no?
Speaker 4: And I think you're hitting the nail on the head
Speaker 4: and why I like the Chiefs at plus two. I
Speaker 4: actually bet them at plus two and a half and
Speaker 4: it's opened ten days ago. This Chiefs defense, you just
Speaker 4: mentioned some things they did during the regular season, second
Speaker 4: lowest scoring defense in the NFL, just behind by fractions
Speaker 4: of a point the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs against
Speaker 4: three of the most vaunted, high powered offensives through the
Speaker 4: entire season. To un road the Bills, the Ravens allowed
Speaker 4: an average of four points per game in the second half.
Speaker 4: And I think the real incredible. It's incredible, and I
Speaker 4: think the real key to this game. And it's also
Speaker 4: why people like the under Andy Reid this season has
Speaker 4: played more conservatively in the second half. He is not
Speaker 4: not because not on purpose, but the offensive game plan
Speaker 4: has been slower. I believe they both want to go slow.
Speaker 4: I believe both of these teams believe in their kickers.
Speaker 4: At least the Chiefs really do. Kyle Shannon is not
Speaker 4: the kind of guy to go forward and fourth down.
Speaker 4: You are less likely to do it when you're facing
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes when you believe in your defense, like I
Speaker 4: think the Niners do. I think the key to This
Speaker 4: game really is going to be how the defensive coordinators
Speaker 4: adjust in the second half, and if the Chiefs get
Speaker 4: out to a lead, how is that going to spook
Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan. How is that going to spook brock Purty.
Speaker 4: We've seen it all offseason. The best quarterbacks in the
Speaker 4: game make bad decisions when they fall behind. Against Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 4: he is a complete model wrecker. You cannot account for
Speaker 4: that in any of the handicapping, And a lot of
Speaker 4: the conversations this week about handicapping this game have been
Speaker 4: about how do you account for a recency bias with
Speaker 4: what the Chiefs have been doing, and how do you
Speaker 4: account for what the Niners have done all season long?
Speaker 4: And I think that you have to consider is recency
Speaker 4: bias something that is a better indication of how the
Speaker 4: Chiefs have gotten better, how Andy Reid has changed his
Speaker 4: game plan, and to bringing full circle, how Steve Spagnola
Speaker 4: has made adjustments in the second half of every game
Speaker 4: this season, but especially in the last six weeks of
Speaker 4: this season. I think that'll be the key. We've seen
Speaker 4: it in every playoff game this year, and by the way,
Speaker 4: we didn't see Steve Wilkes do that. The Lions lost
Speaker 4: that game because the Lions made bad plays, not because
Speaker 4: the Niners all of a sudden. We're playing so much
Speaker 4: better defensively, and I think you've got a zone heavy
Speaker 4: scheme on defense against Patrick Mahomes, whose receivers don't have
Speaker 4: very big average depths of target. You're senders thought to
Speaker 4: get sort of dink and dime until the Chiefs are
Speaker 4: scoring and then you're.
Speaker 2: Mahomes, and Mahomes has become more comfortable with that this season.
Speaker 2: It's exactly you know. I would say Andy Reid and
Speaker 2: Steve Spagnola are the best coaching duo in the league.
Speaker 2: I do think Demiko Ryans and Bobby Slow for Houston
Speaker 2: are the best young coaching combination in the league. But
Speaker 2: I don't think Steve Wilkes. I think he's been a
Speaker 2: downgrade from Demiko Ryans. They're not as good as in
Speaker 2: the red zone. They're pass rush. They don't generate the
Speaker 2: pass rush outside of Bosa. So I think what we're
Speaker 2: looking at is and I think you hit on something.
Speaker 2: There's two whammys that work in Kansas City's favorite Mahomes
Speaker 2: screws with everybody's head. You tend to call a more
Speaker 2: aggressive game because of Mahomes. Nobody's calling wacky plays because
Speaker 2: I brought purty, Maybe the opposite. Secondly, Kyle's lost games
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl he had won. Does Andy Reid
Speaker 2: get into his head? Does it get into his head?
Speaker 2: I asked Drew Brees that today. I said, you know,
Speaker 2: you go to the Super Bowl. You didn't have this litany.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Niners have been great for thirty years.
Speaker 2: Mostly they haven't won since ninety four. This team has
Speaker 2: been great for six years. Right, that shit gets tight,
Speaker 2: right Like, I can say whatever you want. This is
Speaker 2: going to be a loose Kansas City team with the
Speaker 2: best head coach and DC duo in the league, playing
Speaker 2: with confidence, an underdog. I think if it's close laid,
Speaker 2: I think all the intangibles go to Kansas City.
Speaker 4: I've got a cowherd take on this. Patrick Mahomes isn't
Speaker 4: playing just to win this title. He's playing for legacy.
Speaker 4: And Patrick Mahomes is such a gifted player. We're talking
Speaker 4: about people who We're talking about a guy who is
Speaker 4: at the top of his craft, potentially beyond Tom Brady
Speaker 4: and the path he will beyond if he wins this game.
Speaker 4: Is far beyond the accomplishments of just one season. And
Speaker 4: I think he's a game wrecker, as we said, because
Speaker 4: he can think beyond that and he will not shrink
Speaker 4: in the moment. And I think to your point about Shanahan,
Speaker 4: to your point about brock Party, and I don't think
Speaker 4: this is necessarily specific to them, but in this case
Speaker 4: it will be. Then Mahomes makes you do things you
Speaker 4: wouldn't normally do. And if you've got the monkey on
Speaker 4: your back because you haven't been able to close the
Speaker 4: deal in the Super Bowl and you're going against Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 4: Let's remember Patrick Mahomes lost the Super Bowl against the
Speaker 4: Bucks because he had no healthy offensive pac lineman none.
Speaker 4: Like all of these things, you get clarity looking back
Speaker 4: in history. So I do think that the context of
Speaker 4: Mahomes playing for legacy and being driven enough to know
Speaker 4: that's what he's playing for beyond this season, I think
Speaker 4: that's an X factor.
Speaker 2: So one of the I don't do a ton of props,
Speaker 2: but brought Purty over under two hundred and forty seven
Speaker 2: passing yards. So Brandon Ayuk is sensational, But you're talking
Speaker 2: about Sneed's an elite corner that when he guards you.
Speaker 2: The quarterback has sixty five passer rating in a fifty
Speaker 2: two percent completion rate. You can put sneed McDuffie's also excellent.
Speaker 2: So I don't think they'll beat the Chiefs over the top.
Speaker 2: They could dink and dunk, but I'm Kyle Shanahan. There's
Speaker 2: a fairly obvious way to map this came out. I
Speaker 2: want to see mahomes as little as possible, a lot
Speaker 2: of debo, a lot of Christian McCaffrey and deebo in
Speaker 2: some running sets, which we know we can do, but
Speaker 2: it felt like he did more of that pre content
Speaker 2: pre contract than both. I don't have the data to
Speaker 2: support that. But the way to win this game for
Speaker 2: them is I'm not putting it on brock pretty shoulders
Speaker 2: and we're not going to get cheap yards over the top.
Speaker 2: This is a debo Christian McCaffrey game. Secondly, is that
Speaker 2: San Francisco and I can't figure it out because nobody's
Speaker 2: tied to their play sheet, and more than Kyle Shanahan,
Speaker 2: they've not been a great first quarter team in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Green Bay out played him, to Troy out played him.
Speaker 2: So it's like you're not gonna get major yards early.
Speaker 2: They're gonna be fairly cautious, I would think with Brock
Speaker 2: pretty early in the Super Bowl right like, they're not
Speaker 2: going explosion plays. You're not gonna get cheap crap over
Speaker 2: the top because the Chiefs pass rush is excellent and
Speaker 2: their corners are, in my opinion, the best young corners
Speaker 2: in the game. I'm actually surprised to forty seven's a
Speaker 2: lot of yards when you have Christian McCaffrey. That's all
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs defense. Baltimore was reluctant to run. They
Speaker 2: could have. You know, Gus Edwards first run was fifteen yards,
Speaker 2: his second carry was in the second half. They could
Speaker 2: have run, So that number to me, he seems high.
Speaker 4: Well, look, Colin, I had Gus Edwards over forty and
Speaker 4: a half rushing yards, and when he ran for fifteen
Speaker 4: yards on that first play, I'm like, I'm golden, Like
Speaker 4: I'm watching in the action app and I see like
Speaker 4: his percentage chance of covering that was like eighty percent,
Speaker 4: and then it was seventy, and then it was sixty,
Speaker 4: and then it was fifty, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 4: he ran one more time the entire game, and that
Speaker 4: by the way, is indicative of how coaches and players
Speaker 4: change their game plan and change their style when you're
Speaker 4: playing Patrick Mahomes, I think the Niners. I'm not trying
Speaker 4: to avoid your question. I don't have a strong opinion
Speaker 4: on Perdy. I would probably lean to the under. I
Speaker 4: think it's lined about right. I don't see a huge
Speaker 4: edge in Brock Purdy in his passing yardage. I think
Speaker 4: I do see Deebo Samuel over his receiving yardage as
Speaker 4: a bonus because I think he's going to line up
Speaker 4: in the slot. And I think that's a little bit
Speaker 4: of an advantage because you're not having to go against
Speaker 4: really good corners against the Chiefs, and you're going against
Speaker 4: smaller linebackers, and so if they are going to find
Speaker 4: some success, that could be where it is. And I
Speaker 4: also agree with you. Look, if the Niners are winning
Speaker 4: this game, they're doing it on the ground, thrashing a
Speaker 4: mediocre Chiefs run defense. I won't say terrible Chiefs run defense,
Speaker 4: it's mediocre. It's a mediocre defense. So I think the
Speaker 4: advantage here is to run McCaffrey and run Deebo Samuel.
Speaker 4: Do what I say you're betting over the McCaffrey yardage.
Speaker 4: I don't think so, because I do think that the
Speaker 4: Chiefs know they'd almost rather put the ball in brock
Speaker 4: Perty's hands than let McCaffrey beat him because he is
Speaker 4: so talented. So those are a couple of tricky props
Speaker 4: I think to bet. I will tell you one bet
Speaker 4: that I love that I think is underpriced right now.
Speaker 4: Christian McCaffrey. First rush over three and a half yards
Speaker 4: happens sixty to sixty five percent at the time, and
Speaker 4: then the circumstances, and then the percentage increases with circumstances
Speaker 4: like we are looking at this week with the defense
Speaker 4: that isn't quite as good as what the Niners were
Speaker 4: always facing. So if you're looking for sort of a
Speaker 4: sneaky fun prop, that'll be over quickly. They're right away
Speaker 4: if you're going to win that one. But that's one
Speaker 4: that I like.
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm going to defend the Chiefs run
Speaker 2: defense a little, not overwhelmingly, but you don't play catch
Speaker 2: up with the Chiefs like you used to, so people
Speaker 2: simply run more against Kansas City. In previous years, the
Speaker 2: Chiefs defense was viewed who they don't allow many rushing
Speaker 2: yards because you're always trailing. This Chief team has been trailing,
Speaker 2: so people aren't getting into shootouts. And when you don't
Speaker 2: get into shootouts with Mahomes, you find comfort in running
Speaker 2: and eating the clock because Mahomes is in your head.
Speaker 2: So people are much more willing to run against Kansas City.
Speaker 2: I don't think their run defense is bad. They're two
Speaker 2: athletics get linebacker. For it to be bad, they really
Speaker 2: have good, twitchy linebackers. Yeah, but this defense has the
Speaker 2: best corners, an excellent pass rush, so people attack the
Speaker 2: run game more. And I think, again, I don't think
Speaker 2: it's a great run defense. It's not Baltimore, but I
Speaker 2: think it's a little over discussed how poor it is
Speaker 2: based on if you knew you didn't have to get
Speaker 2: into a shootout with Mahomes, you'd want to run the
Speaker 2: damn clock, so we'd get two less possessions. So people
Speaker 2: go into a week and say we're going to commit
Speaker 2: to the run. Well, if you commit to the run,
Speaker 2: you run the ball more and you run the ball
Speaker 2: with more success. So I think people have gone into
Speaker 2: games with Kansas City thinking, hey, we got to be
Speaker 2: good situationally in the red zone because when we get chances.
Speaker 2: We got to score touchdown not field goals. That was forever,
Speaker 2: that's been the mantra with Kansas City. You got to
Speaker 2: get touchdowns, not field goals. Teams go for it and
Speaker 2: fourth down you don't really have to with this team.
Speaker 2: I ring the ball. So I think the defense for
Speaker 2: Kansas City is excellent against the pass. I think it's
Speaker 2: okay again, that's the run.
Speaker 4: Good enough, good right, And I think that to bring
Speaker 4: a full circle, that plays into why we like the
Speaker 4: under and the game script that we're expecting is going
Speaker 4: to be that both teams play some kind of ball
Speaker 4: control offense, which is really what they've been doing all year. Right.
Speaker 4: These have not been explosive from a from a Niners perspective,
Speaker 4: not I mean a Chiefs perspective, not an explosive offense.
Speaker 4: And the Niners, while they can be explosive, are more
Speaker 4: than likely recognizing that their ability to win this game
Speaker 4: is going to be dependent on their ability to run
Speaker 4: the ball. So as long as they can be committed
Speaker 4: to that, I like our chances on the under. Do
Speaker 4: I think either do? I think either side is a lock?
Speaker 4: Not really. I will say one thing you want to
Speaker 4: consider when teams win the Super Bowl, they tend to
Speaker 4: win by a field goal or more so, if you
Speaker 4: really like the Chiefs. Fun alternative bet to make Chiefs
Speaker 4: minus two and a half at plus one thirty one
Speaker 4: thirty five because you're getting better odds. And if you
Speaker 4: think it's going to be a close game and the
Speaker 4: Chiefs are going to win, might will take the Chiefs
Speaker 4: at minus two and a half, which is the limit
Speaker 4: of where you want to be. I'm sort of taking
Speaker 4: an outline here and getting a little bit of extra juice.
Speaker 2: Chad Milman, been great. My three teamer is Chiefs plus
Speaker 2: two under and Brock under two hundred and forty seven
Speaker 2: passing yards. Give me a three teamer very quickly.
Speaker 4: I will take Chiefs plus two, I will take the under,
Speaker 4: and I will take Deebo Samuel over fifty eight and
Speaker 4: a half receiving yards.
Speaker 2: I think you're right on that. You know, the air
Speaker 2: thing with him, bubble screens, he gets cheap yards, he
Speaker 2: gets those, he turns four into nine like three times
Speaker 2: a game. You get a lot of cheap stuff.
Speaker 4: With Trent Williams out in front of him, best lineman
Speaker 4: in football.
Speaker 2: Come on, Chad Milman. CCO Action Network, Good Talk, anybody
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