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Speaker 1: The Volume.

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Speaker 2: This week on Prime Cuts, John Middelcoff on brock Perty's

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Speaker 2: postseason struggles. Chad Milman Sharper Square in my top takes

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Speaker 2: of the week. Vegas should get more Super Bowls. Let's

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Speaker 2: all agree on that. All right, welcome in. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: have Chad Milman Sharper Square. You know him from the

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Speaker 2: CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I

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Speaker 2: spent Wednesday night, flew in, flew back for the volume

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Speaker 2: party and the overriding theme. Now this is from just

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Speaker 2: advertisers and friends, media colleagues. A couple of players was

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Speaker 2: that why don't they hold all the Super Bowls in

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Speaker 2: Las Vegas? For years and years, this was a big stigma.

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Speaker 2: Remember years ago Tony Romo wanted to do some fantasy

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Speaker 2: football league in the NFL wouldn't allow it. It was

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Speaker 2: always ridiculous. Vegas has legalized gambling, but told the NBA

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Speaker 2: warned them about Tim Donneghey, they don't want stigma around gambling.

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Speaker 2: It's the gambling sports gambling mecca of the United States.

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Speaker 2: So there's been a lot of gambling controversies, very few

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Speaker 2: have been in Las Vegas. They're on the alert for scammers.

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Speaker 2: So finally they put hockey in there, and now football

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Speaker 2: it's all crushing and there's no problem with the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: Players make so much money. Now I worry more about

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Speaker 2: collegiate players and that stuff, and officials and that stuff,

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Speaker 2: and even you know, That's why I always felt the

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Speaker 2: NFL should, you know, make officials full time employees, because

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Speaker 2: it holds them to a higher level of accountability. Not

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Speaker 2: that they don't feel accountable, but you know, it's the

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Speaker 2: difference between being in a company and being a consultant.

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Speaker 2: There's a different responsibility, a different level, and I think

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Speaker 2: you always have to have your eye out for stuff.

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Speaker 2: We saw the college football player at LSU. College kids,

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Speaker 2: they're trying to make ends, meet their stars in college

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Speaker 2: pre nil, I always felt there was probably a player

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Speaker 2: too on every roster that was taking a more than

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Speaker 2: a ham sandwich in a twenty. But you just don't know,

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Speaker 2: and so you can't speculate an individual players or teams.

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Speaker 2: But I think Vegas and Miami are perfect. Phoenix nothing

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Speaker 2: against it, but you've got Scottsdale over there, Glendale over there,

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Speaker 2: downtown Phoenix. They cut it into threes. Miami's got perfect weather,

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Speaker 2: New Orleans is fine. Although New Orleans. To spend a

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Speaker 2: week in New Orleans, you kind of run out of

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Speaker 2: things to do besides drink and eat. And I think

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Speaker 2: Las Vegas. I mean you can you can golf, The

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Speaker 2: golf is stunning, you can gamble, you can shop. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you wanted to a couple of days go to

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Speaker 2: Los Angeles, it's a forty minute flight. So I think

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Speaker 2: Vegas is a perfect spot. I think the stigma would

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Speaker 2: legalized gambling was always silly. I mean, there are those

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Speaker 2: of us that I've been talking about gambling on the

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Speaker 2: air my entire career. There's no stigma. Every guy I

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Speaker 2: know gambles. I gamble everybody I know, and I gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 2: I think ninety nine percent of people do. Do people

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Speaker 2: eat responsibly? Do they always drink responsibly? Do they always

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Speaker 2: drive responsibly? There's always going to be people that are irresponsible.

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Speaker 2: But I think Vegas works, and especially having a covered stadium.

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Speaker 2: You know, Dallas can get really cold in the winter.

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Speaker 2: In Miami does not. It rains, but it doesn't get

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Speaker 2: terribly cold. So if you know this idea that you

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Speaker 2: have to mix it up around the country, no, you

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Speaker 2: don't we hold Marty Gron one place. You know, Rock

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Speaker 2: and Eve in one place. A lot of Hollywood Awards

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Speaker 2: are in one place. You have to move everything. You

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Speaker 2: don't have to. Super Bowl would be two three places.

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Speaker 2: I'd be totally okay with it. And I just think

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Speaker 2: from the people I talked to. I talked to about

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Speaker 2: four former players, about three current players, members of the media, advertisers,

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Speaker 2: and everybody said, this is the hotel capital of North America.

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Speaker 2: There's great restaurants everywhere, There's multiple things to do. I

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Speaker 2: remember going to a super Bowl in Jacksonville where they

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Speaker 2: literally had one hotel. They had to bring in cruise

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Speaker 2: ships and they ended up with a Super Bowl. I

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Speaker 2: never bought into this. Well, you got to share the

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Speaker 2: super Bowl. I don't want it in Kansas City. It's

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Speaker 2: too cold in February. Let's put the best players in

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Speaker 2: the world under a dome in cold weather or in

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Speaker 2: warm weather. Don't let the weather dictate the outcome. The

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Speaker 2: weather bad weather, ows's always punishes the greater quarterbacks, you know.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's like you, you don't want to reduce

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Speaker 2: the effectiveness of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady in their prime.

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Speaker 2: It's December games happen, but if you can avoid it

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Speaker 2: with a neutral field game, you don't schedule potential blizzards.

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Speaker 2: All right, John Middlecoff, his podcast at the volume is

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Speaker 2: three and out, former NFL scout. All right, let's talk

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Speaker 2: about a little bit about the Super Bowl. But I

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Speaker 2: really want to dial in on brock Purty. So I

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Speaker 2: saw a stat that was interesting. I don't think you

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Speaker 2: deny this. Five of the eight playoff quarters for brock

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Speaker 2: Purty have not been good, and they've been a favorite,

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Speaker 2: and they've been at home. So brock Purty's rate of

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Speaker 2: negatively graded dropbacks in the playoffs has been twenty three percent.

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Speaker 2: So that's bad. That would have been the worst in

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Speaker 2: the NFL of any quarterback with two hundred plus dropbacks.

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Speaker 2: He's been bad in the playoffs. He's had a couple

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Speaker 2: of great late drives Mahomes who had a much much

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Speaker 2: lower a very good negative dropback rate, right, very few.

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Speaker 2: It's been even better in the playoffs. It's like six

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Speaker 2: percent to Perty's twenty three percent. And he's gone on

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Speaker 2: the road twice against you know, Green Bay's defense and

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Speaker 2: Detroit's defense. I mean, one's crap. The other ones average

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Speaker 2: Buffalo's defense and the Baltimore defenses, especially Baltimore's much better

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Speaker 2: than Green Band Detroit. So Mahomes against much better defenses

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Speaker 2: on the road, has almost no negative dropbacks almost none.

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Speaker 2: Purty at home against bad defenses has an egregiously bad

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Speaker 2: negative dropback rate. So my take is I think this

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Speaker 2: Kansas City's defense is elite. Most people just don't know

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Speaker 2: anybody outside of maybe Snead and Chris Jones, but they

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Speaker 2: can fricking move if Purty struggles, and I like the

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Speaker 2: under is my favorite bet in this game. I think

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Speaker 2: it's low scoring. If Purty struggles, I mean, really coughs

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Speaker 2: it up. Could you argue Kyle Goes he got outplayed

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Speaker 2: for three quarters by Love, outplayed by two and a

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Speaker 2: half quarters by lousy in the Super Bowl, that Sam

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Speaker 2: Donald would go into camp battling Purty and whoever played

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Speaker 2: better would win that job.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think that is a big swing guy for him,

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Speaker 1: because I was text with some people. Sam just signed

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Speaker 1: a one year contract and the forty nine ers love him,

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Speaker 1: but so does Adam Peters, who's now in Washington. And

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe depending on who you draft, you bring him,

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Speaker 1: you pay him a little bit more money. You kind

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Speaker 1: of make him the bridge quarterback. You let that guy

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Speaker 1: kind of ease into his NFL career. So that is

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Speaker 1: a team to watch. When it comes to Sam Donald,

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Speaker 1: I do think the forty nine ers are very very

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Speaker 1: loyal to this guy. They really like him. Like one

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Speaker 1: thing happened when Trey Lance was pretty bad for them

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Speaker 1: in his starts, the team never really gravitated toward him.

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Speaker 1: And when I say the team, I mean they're Star

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Speaker 1: Corps players that group like He's beloved in the locker

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Speaker 1: room and brock perty and that buys you a lot

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Speaker 1: of juice with this team. Trent William, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa,

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Speaker 1: George Kittle, Deebo, Samuel Brandon, Ayuk. I mean, these guys

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Speaker 1: are not going anywhere, and they're some of the best

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Speaker 1: players in the league. The other thing is Kyle is

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Speaker 1: even in the struggles when you can run his offense.

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Speaker 1: That was the problem with Troy. He like had to

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Speaker 1: change his offense, and He's like, my whole thing is

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Speaker 1: my offense. So I was that's why they loved Party,

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Speaker 1: And I'm sure you saw the story. Jed Yorke told

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Speaker 1: him that Kyle in twenty twenty two in training camp

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Speaker 1: said eight, I think the best this is like two

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Speaker 1: weeks in, the best quarterback on the roster. This guy

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Speaker 1: we just drafted the seventh round. They're like what and

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Speaker 1: he was. He wasn't making that up now, I was

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Speaker 1: going to those practices. It's hard to tell because he's

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Speaker 1: running with the threes. But they kept him on the

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Speaker 1: roster for a reason, like the coach really liked him.

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Speaker 1: The rain situation in Green Bay, he was really bad.

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Speaker 1: I do think the second half against Detroit, like I

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Speaker 1: thought their defense really let him down. The forty nine

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Speaker 1: Ers are an offensive team. When you go back to

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Speaker 1: the last Super Bowl these two teams played, the Niners

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Speaker 1: were a defensive team and the Chiefs were an unreal

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Speaker 1: offensive team. Well look at this this year. The Niners

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Speaker 1: are the third scoring offense. They're very dependent on Brock

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Speaker 1: playing well in scoring a lot of points because their

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Speaker 1: defense the last couple of weeks it's reruly been leaking

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Speaker 1: oil for a while. And the Chiefs are the number

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Speaker 1: two overall scoring defense. So this is actually a clash

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Speaker 1: between the forty nine Ers offense and the Chiefs defense.

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Speaker 1: But their offense goes as Brock play. So when he's

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Speaker 1: a little off. Their defense is no longer dominant, So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's not for them to win the Super Bowl. To me,

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Speaker 1: he's got to be way better than he was because

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Speaker 1: I don't have as much face on the faith on

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Speaker 1: the defense. John Lynch was just their defensive coordinator was

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Speaker 1: saying they were embarrassed by the effort in the NFC

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Speaker 1: Championship game. So the defense is going through some stuff.

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Speaker 1: Now when Deebo's healthy, they have so many options and

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Speaker 1: you can run the ball with Christian McCaffrey. They throw

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Speaker 1: a lot of quick screens. They just need Brocking out

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Speaker 1: to turn it over. And that's the one thing. He's

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Speaker 1: got a lot of turnover worthy plays. And when he

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Speaker 1: was really humming throughout the season, when they were beating

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Speaker 1: the shit out of Dallas and Philly, he was not

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Speaker 1: doing that. So it just depends what guy you get.

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Speaker 1: And this gets back to and I'm sure when the

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Speaker 1: draft gets closed and when the draft happens, the character

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Speaker 1: of these guys, the mindset of these guys. Brock's a

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Speaker 1: pretty serious dude. So like he's gone through like it's

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Speaker 1: been a rough little stretch for him, but I think

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Speaker 1: they like where he's at mentally, and I have actually

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Speaker 1: more faith in him, the guy and the wiring than

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Speaker 1: I do sometimes the physical attributes. Obviously, he's a pretty

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Speaker 1: good runner, but his arm, you know, it can be

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Speaker 1: a little hit or missed sometimes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I always said Dak Prescott's intangibles or an A.

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Speaker 2: His tangibles are like A C plus B minus, like

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Speaker 2: he moves over. I mean, he really throws an average ball,

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Speaker 2: you know. I think the other thing with Brock Purty,

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Speaker 2: if I was a Niner fan, I'd be a little concerned.

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Speaker 2: Is Andy Reiden's bags two weeks? Is that pretty rain

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Speaker 2: struggled road not as good big games. He's been a

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Speaker 2: tad tight people. Also, John, they have more film. You

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Speaker 2: got a lot on Brock now, whereas with Garoppolo we

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Speaker 2: knew his limitations. That's why I think Brock pretty moving

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Speaker 2: is essential because it doesn't matter how much film you have.

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Speaker 2: If you can move, you can move. You don't know

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Speaker 2: when it's coming. But I think I do think Spags

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Speaker 2: and I think the Chiefs have the best corners in

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Speaker 2: the league. I think if they can generate a pass rush,

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Speaker 2: you know, if I was facing Purty, my takeaway would

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Speaker 2: be crowd Debo. Take out the bubble screens, be prepared

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Speaker 2: for him. Don't let him run brock On play actions

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Speaker 2: to stop the run. Take your chances with Ayuk over

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Speaker 2: the top. If he beats you, he beats you. But

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Speaker 2: take away take those bubble screens away from Debo where

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Speaker 2: he's a train downhill. I don't know. I don't think

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Speaker 2: San Francisco is going to generate a ton of offense.

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Speaker 2: You've acknowledged that San Francisco's pass rush is really it's

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Speaker 2: kind of hit and miss outside of Bosa.

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Speaker 1: I think ideally Kyle Seanahan at his core is wired

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Speaker 1: like a guy from the eighties or the nineties, like

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Speaker 1: his dad. He wants to run the ball, and they

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Speaker 1: run the ball to do two things. Established just a

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Speaker 1: physical you know, set the tone physically and prove that

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Speaker 1: we're tougher than you. And then their entire passing game

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Speaker 1: is off that all the play action stuff that leads

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Speaker 1: to a lot of easy completions. It's why when they're

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Speaker 1: successful running the ball with McCaffrey, their offense can look

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Speaker 1: pretty easy because guys get wide open because you're biting

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Speaker 1: on the run. And then guys they have so much

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Speaker 1: talent with their offensive weapons. When you can slow down

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Speaker 1: the run, it throws them off a little bit. So

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Speaker 1: to me, it kind of starts with Christian McCaffrey. It's

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Speaker 1: why a lot of people are saying he was the

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Speaker 1: MVP threat the year because he is, I mean, he's

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Speaker 1: one of the best players in the league. They said

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Speaker 1: something on the AFC Championship game it was either nance

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Speaker 1: or Romo that the Chiefs led the league this year

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Speaker 1: and batted passes at the line of scrimmage like their

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Speaker 1: defensive line. Well, what happened a couple times against the Lions.

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Speaker 1: Hutchinson's like six foot seven, batted a couple of balls down.

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Speaker 1: Do they bat four balls down? Well, if you only

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Speaker 1: get twenty eight to thirty pass attempts, or you know,

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Speaker 1: Kyle ideally would be twenty five, that's four wasted passes, right,

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Speaker 1: Or does it happen once? Because sometimes Kyle's schemed pass

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Speaker 1: is why it's gonna work, either as a big first

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Speaker 1: down or an explosive play. If you tip that ball,

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Speaker 1: and you can with Brock because he's a shorter player,

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Speaker 1: it can throw you off. That's some little thing to

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Speaker 1: keep an eye on because they bat a lot of

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Speaker 1: balls and Brocass the balls to get bad and so

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Speaker 1: do they try it. I don't ever understand wy Kyle

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Speaker 1: doesn't move it now. His offense is not a drop

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Speaker 1: back passing game where they do right now sprint options.

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Speaker 1: But I would try to get him on the move

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Speaker 1: a little bit more, but they just that's not really

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Speaker 1: part of the Shanahan you know operation.

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Speaker 2: Well, we haven't talked to Jason Timp for a long time.

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Speaker 2: Jason is one of those gems we found hunting through

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Speaker 2: podcast after podcast Hoops Tonight host. He's done just a

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Speaker 2: remarkable job for us. His growth has been exponential. So

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Speaker 2: I watched the entire game Lakers Nicks. Now Og didn't

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Speaker 2: play in Randall, but I mean the Lakers beat the

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Speaker 2: so Celtics without Lebron and Ad so Julius Randall shouldn't

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Speaker 2: be the difference. I think Grimes was out. But my

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Speaker 2: takeaway and the Knicks is this, First of all, I

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Speaker 2: always thought Jalen Brunson was a one A Maybe he's

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Speaker 2: a one twenty seven a game. I love his leadership,

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Speaker 2: his IQ, his toughness. I think he's the best Nick

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Speaker 2: sent youwing. It was never a huge Carmelo fan didn't

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Speaker 2: give you anything on the second on the defensive end,

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Speaker 2: and a little bit selfish, wouldn't step back and hit

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Speaker 2: threes for years. He just got stubborn on the twos.

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Speaker 2: So if Bronson's an A, I do believe you need

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Speaker 2: a very strong two. I think Og and Randall are threes.

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Speaker 2: Good threes. And at the end of that game, if

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Speaker 2: Brunson's not hitting, forget Randall because Randall would be slowed

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Speaker 2: down by a D. He's not getting any cheap points.

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Speaker 2: Eight He's the best low post defender in the game.

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Speaker 2: And I look at the Knicks and what I've seen

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Speaker 2: Jason in the last three years with them is patience.

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Speaker 2: And part of me is like, just go get a two,

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Speaker 2: And then part of me is like, no, that's the

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Speaker 2: nixt You've been desperate, Amari Stodemeier. You always reach on people.

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Speaker 2: Is there a player in the league if not this

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Speaker 2: trade deadline, next trade deadline, because I think they needed

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Speaker 2: to so address if you think the Knicks do. If

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Speaker 2: Brunton's not hitting late like he wasn't against the Lakers, boy,

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Speaker 2: they go dry fast. I mean they go drive fast.

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Speaker 2: Now Randal didn't play, but I don't think Og or

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Speaker 2: Randall are elite scores per se.

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Speaker 3: Is the perfect way to put it, because they could

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Speaker 3: have jumped on one of those things where it's at

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Speaker 3: the time of the trade, we didn't realize Brunson was

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Speaker 3: this good, So like maybe internally they were like Brunson's

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Speaker 3: our guy, and maybe that was some of the reasoning

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Speaker 3: behind it. But the point is is waiting ended up

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Speaker 3: being smart because then Jalen Brunston popped and now they

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Speaker 3: can kind of be more patient in terms of waiting

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Speaker 3: for who that next guy is. I thought the og

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Speaker 3: Innobi trade was was genius because it didn't waste any

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Speaker 3: sort of super legitimate asset in terms of their pursuit

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Speaker 3: of an eventual star. I think one of the reasons

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Speaker 3: why that Laker game looked the way it did is

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Speaker 3: the Knicks are very much like a physically imposing team,

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Speaker 3: Like they are very much like a power beat you

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Speaker 3: up for forty eight minutes, classic Tom Thibodeo type of team, right,

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Speaker 3: and when you take Og and Julius out, they just

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Speaker 3: become small really fast, especially with Mitchell Robinson out of

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Speaker 3: the lineup because he's been injured, although he might come

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Speaker 3: back before the end, but I mean, this won't come

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Speaker 3: as any secret to anybody who's listened to you and

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Speaker 3: me talk about this before, but we're both really high

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Speaker 3: on Jaylen Brunson, and I think like I think Jalen

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Speaker 3: Brunson has entered into that conversation with the best guards

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Speaker 3: in the league. Like I think he's just on that tier.

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Speaker 3: We're we're on an extended stretch now where he not

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Speaker 3: only that he's improving and like to take it even

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Speaker 3: a step further.

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Speaker 1: Look at the.

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Speaker 3: Playoffs last year absolutely straight up out played Donovan Mitchell

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Speaker 3: head to head and won a series, and he went

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Speaker 3: to I think he is too.

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Speaker 2: I think, frankly, Jason, I think he's a better player

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Speaker 2: than Nonovan Mitchell. He's not quite. I don't think he's quite.

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Speaker 2: I shouldn't even say this anymore. I gotta, I gotta

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Speaker 2: get over this. I think he's a better leader. I

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Speaker 2: think he plays with a very steady temperament. I know

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Speaker 2: exactly what I get from Jalen Brunson every game I

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Speaker 2: watch him. Donovan, I get I get stretches where I

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Speaker 2: get he just like forgets his teammates. I think Brunson

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Speaker 2: is a top you can name it, but I think

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Speaker 2: he New York Loud. He's classic Villanova tunes out the noise.

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Speaker 3: To Donovan Mitchell's credit, he's having the best season of

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Speaker 3: his credit. We are literally I'm sorry, he's having the

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Speaker 3: best defensive season. He's out of his career. Well, I

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Speaker 3: want to give Donovan Mitchell some credit, but I agree

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Speaker 3: with you. Jalen Brunson is a better basketball player than him.

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Speaker 3: But then he also went toe to toe with Jimmy Butler.

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Speaker 3: The reason why they couldn't beat the Heat last year

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Speaker 3: was Julius Randall was a complete non factor in that

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Speaker 3: postseason run. Now, in his defense, he was hurt. He

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Speaker 3: had hurt his ankle right before the playoffs and was

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Speaker 3: pretty beat up throughout that playoff run. But to your point,

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Speaker 3: the Knicks have already shown us they can make some

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Speaker 3: noise with just Jalen Jyleen Brunson, so you can imagine

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Speaker 3: what a number two would do for them. Now, the

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Speaker 3: question is who The guy that I know that they've

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Speaker 3: been waiting on is Joel Embiid. But I do get

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Speaker 3: somewhat concerned about with his injury history. Now like here

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Speaker 3: we are again with him with his knee struggling to

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Speaker 3: make it through a regular season. But I think Joel

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Speaker 3: Embiid is a guy that had their eyes on I

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Speaker 3: think if the war, if the Lakers just absolutely like

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Speaker 3: floundered this year, like just an absolute disaster end of

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Speaker 3: the season, I put like a like a five percent

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Speaker 3: chance that someone like Lebron could potentially either opt out

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Speaker 3: of his deal this summer and sign there on like

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Speaker 3: a mid level exception, or opt in and do the

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Speaker 3: James Harden where basically you opt in and ask for

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Speaker 3: a trade and then try to do that Because I

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Speaker 3: look at Lebron James as basically, even at this phase

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Speaker 3: of his career, just a way better version of Julius Randall,

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Speaker 3: which kind of is a shoe in fit to that position,

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Speaker 3: you know what I mean. So like, but I think

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Speaker 3: I think when it comes to the next patience has

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Speaker 3: been the name of the game. Jalen Brunson has bought

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Speaker 3: them the ability to be good while they wait for

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Speaker 3: the right guy. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: there's no reason to jump at anything unless it is

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Speaker 3: the I wouldn't trade for a single guy unless he

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Speaker 3: was better than Jalen Brunson. It literally is that simple.

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Speaker 3: That's right to me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Brunson is the future of the Knicks.

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Speaker 2: And you know, there's a lot of people that are

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Speaker 2: you know you hear this. I think it was said

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Speaker 2: about Jalen Brunson.

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Speaker 1: He's a little guy.

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Speaker 2: You don't win championships with little guys. And the NBA

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Speaker 2: is getting bigger. I mean, there's a certain recent formula

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Speaker 2: size in the league. But I gotta tell you, as

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Speaker 2: the league gets younger, I think there's an increasing value

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Speaker 2: in maturity and leadership as the league gets younger. It's

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Speaker 2: why Lebron is so valuable. And I think Tatum. In

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Speaker 2: New York, you can get lost in that city. I

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Speaker 2: mean that shit, that city eats guys up like that

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Speaker 2: if you're not. I mean, I remember guys like Jeremy Shack.

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Speaker 2: I mean that's why the great Jeremy Shockey was a

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Speaker 2: great New York giant. Just not ready for the city

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Speaker 2: quite right. If you go to the history of New York,

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Speaker 2: go look at their stars. Jeter, Aaron Judge, Eli Manning,

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Speaker 2: what's the theme go home? All about the sport, grown

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Speaker 2: ups with the media, good background, adult, you know, relationships

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Speaker 2: with family. It's funny. Jeter close to his family, Eli Manning,

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Speaker 2: Brunson's dad in the NBA, Aaron Judge. A lot of

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Speaker 2: times they're small town guys. If you come to New

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Speaker 2: York as a star a Rod, you're a big free

390
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Speaker 2: agent and you get all this expectation, it eats you up.

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Speaker 2: Jalen's the opposite cast off for Dallas. All he has

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Speaker 2: to do is prove stuff. Like Villanova, he is your classic.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Eli Manning went to Ole, Miss Jeter, struggled

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Speaker 2: in the minor leagues. Who's Aeron Judge. He's from Fresno,

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Speaker 2: New York. Has a proto type. You're a little overlooked, undervalued,

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Speaker 2: good background, family college. I think that's so the league's

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Speaker 2: getting so young that these older players that can bring

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Speaker 2: maturity to me. Jason. I mean, it's just it's like

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Speaker 2: it's like I say about Lebron. It's like Lebron, it

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Speaker 2: could be a you know, he's like a coach, general manager,

401
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Speaker 2: star on the floor. He's thinking about who am I,

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Speaker 2: who should I have relationships with, Who can I elevate,

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Speaker 2: who should be on the floor with me. I mean

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Speaker 2: he's thinking through every possession.

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Speaker 3: Credit like he signed and I think it was a

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Speaker 3: little different about the quarterback contract. Value that the MAVs

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Speaker 3: offered him was pretty close to what the Knicks offered him.

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Speaker 3: He straight up said, I want it, I want the pressure,

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Speaker 3: I want like he he signed up for what New

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Speaker 3: York brought to the table, and he's not just thrived

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Speaker 3: in that environment, he's completely exceeded expectations. We have a

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Speaker 3: couple of big Knicks that helped produce soups tonight, and

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Speaker 3: I talked with them about this behind the scenes, and like,

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Speaker 3: it's crazy how that one singular signing transformed the entire

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Speaker 3: landscape of the Knicks future because they got like, think

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Speaker 3: about Jalen Brown just signed a deal where in the

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Speaker 3: final year he's gonna make like seventy million, Okay, like

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Speaker 3: in Jalen Brunson's making in the twenties, and he's giving

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Speaker 3: you superstar production. Like it's it's crazy what that one

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Speaker 3: move has done for that franchise.

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Speaker 2: Let's bring in Chad Millman CCO Action Network. All is

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Speaker 2: provided by DraftKings. I actually think this is an intriguing

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. So the Niners last time here were a

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Speaker 2: stacked defensive roster limitations offensively. Now they're historically gifted a

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Speaker 2: top five running back ever CMC top left tackle five ever,

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Speaker 2: a top ten tight end ever. Deebo is one of

427
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 2: the top multi usage players I can ever remember. I mean,

428
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: they win seventy percent of the games with him, forty

429
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 2: seven percent without him. And then you have Brandon Ayuk,

430
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 2: who has really surged this year to become an elite

431
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 2: top seven eight wide receiver. In fact, the weakness you

432
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 2: would say is, well, the quarterback doesn't throw a great

433
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: deep ball. Quarterbacks not great if the weather's bad. But

434
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 2: I think Kansas City's defense generally great defenses. We think

435
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 2: of them Ray Lewis. We can name the players. You know, Bosa,

436
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 2: but kiss Richard Dent. You can name great players from

437
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 2: great defenses. Right, Kansas City are like well, I like

438
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 2: Chris Jones, best corners in the league, incredibly active wide receivers,

439
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: multiple paths. They had nine more sacks than the Niners,

440
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 2: twenty six more pressures. I think this is an all

441
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: time classic gifted offense and one of the most undervalued

442
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 2: defenses I can ever remember. So I like the under

443
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: forty seven and a half. I think there's gonna be

444
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: yards and explosion plays, but not a lot of timetowns.

445
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 4: What do you think I think you've hit on all

446
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 4: of the things that make this such an interesting game

447
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 4: to analyze for betters. Take this game, put it in

448
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 4: week five, make the Niners two point favorites. No one's

449
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 4: betting it. It'd be like, yeah, it seems about right.

450
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,199
Speaker 4: I don't really see an edge, But because it's the

451
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, people feel like they need to figure out

452
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 4: what side they want to be on, and they are

453
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 4: ignoring the total. I will tell you right now. Professional

454
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 4: betters have been coming in on the under in this

455
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 4: game for ten days at this point, and it's really interesting.

456
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 4: The over up until about forty eight hours ago was

457
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 4: getting fifty seven, fifty eight to fifty nine percent of

458
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 4: the tickets, meaning that's what the squares the public are doing,

459
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 4: and the under was getting about sixty percent of the money.

460
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 4: That's professional betters. In the last forty eight hours, the

461
00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 4: under is now also getting the majority of the tickets,

462
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 4: and the under is getting the majority of the money.

463
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 4: So I do think you'll see this number go down

464
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 4: a little bit. I bet the under. I will probably

465
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 4: end up being heavier on the under than I will

466
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 4: on the side.

467
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 2: I like Kansas City plus two, the Mahomes factor and

468
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 2: Andy Reid with extra time. But I do think there's

469
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,239
Speaker 2: something that's fairly obvious is that in five of eight

470
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: quarters in the playoffs, and I judge that against average

471
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 2: defenses Detroit Green Bay at home, Brock Purty was incredibly pedestrian.

472
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 2: Mahomes at Buffalo at Baltimore minus twenty seven degrees didn't

473
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 2: have a bad quarter. I can't wrap my brain around

474
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: Brock pretty struggling against significantly less talented defenses at home.

475
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 2: He'll be nervous. Kyle Shanahan may be tight. Given the

476
00:24:55,040 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 2: history this defense is they allowed teen points a game

477
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 2: in a league that has pivoted in a conference with

478
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 2: all the best quarterbacks in the league that's pivoted offense.

479
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 2: And if you go look at who the Chiefs faced,

480
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 2: it was, it was Golf, it was Trevor Lawrence, it

481
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 2: was Jalen Hurts, it was Josh Allen, regular and post.

482
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 2: They never allowed over thirty points. The Niners did three times,

483
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 2: and they mostly faced Sam Howells, Gino, Drew Lock. Like

484
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 2: I think the gap in defense, you just know some

485
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 2: of the Niner players. I don't think it's a great defense,

486
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 2: do you no?

487
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 4: And I think you're hitting the nail on the head

488
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 4: and why I like the Chiefs at plus two. I

489
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 4: actually bet them at plus two and a half and

490
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:45,479
Speaker 4: it's opened ten days ago. This Chiefs defense, you just

491
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 4: mentioned some things they did during the regular season, second

492
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 4: lowest scoring defense in the NFL, just behind by fractions

493
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 4: of a point the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs against

494
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 4: three of the most vaunted, high powered offensives through the

495
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 4: entire season. To un road the Bills, the Ravens allowed

496
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 4: an average of four points per game in the second half.

497
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 4: And I think the real incredible. It's incredible, and I

498
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 4: think the real key to this game. And it's also

499
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,120
Speaker 4: why people like the under Andy Reid this season has

500
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 4: played more conservatively in the second half. He is not

501
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 4: not because not on purpose, but the offensive game plan

502
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 4: has been slower. I believe they both want to go slow.

503
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 4: I believe both of these teams believe in their kickers.

504
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 4: At least the Chiefs really do. Kyle Shannon is not

505
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 4: the kind of guy to go forward and fourth down.

506
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 4: You are less likely to do it when you're facing

507
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes when you believe in your defense, like I

508
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 4: think the Niners do. I think the key to This

509
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 4: game really is going to be how the defensive coordinators

510
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 4: adjust in the second half, and if the Chiefs get

511
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,479
Speaker 4: out to a lead, how is that going to spook

512
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan. How is that going to spook brock Purty.

513
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 4: We've seen it all offseason. The best quarterbacks in the

514
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 4: game make bad decisions when they fall behind. Against Patrick Mahomes,

515
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 4: he is a complete model wrecker. You cannot account for

516
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 4: that in any of the handicapping, And a lot of

517
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 4: the conversations this week about handicapping this game have been

518
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 4: about how do you account for a recency bias with

519
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 4: what the Chiefs have been doing, and how do you

520
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 4: account for what the Niners have done all season long?

521
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 4: And I think that you have to consider is recency

522
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 4: bias something that is a better indication of how the

523
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 4: Chiefs have gotten better, how Andy Reid has changed his

524
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 4: game plan, and to bringing full circle, how Steve Spagnola

525
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 4: has made adjustments in the second half of every game

526
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 4: this season, but especially in the last six weeks of

527
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 4: this season. I think that'll be the key. We've seen

528
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 4: it in every playoff game this year, and by the way,

529
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 4: we didn't see Steve Wilkes do that. The Lions lost

530
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 4: that game because the Lions made bad plays, not because

531
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 4: the Niners all of a sudden. We're playing so much

532
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 4: better defensively, and I think you've got a zone heavy

533
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 4: scheme on defense against Patrick Mahomes, whose receivers don't have

534
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 4: very big average depths of target. You're senders thought to

535
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 4: get sort of dink and dime until the Chiefs are

536
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 4: scoring and then you're.

537
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,959
Speaker 2: Mahomes, and Mahomes has become more comfortable with that this season.

538
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: It's exactly you know. I would say Andy Reid and

539
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 2: Steve Spagnola are the best coaching duo in the league.

540
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 2: I do think Demiko Ryans and Bobby Slow for Houston

541
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 2: are the best young coaching combination in the league. But

542
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: I don't think Steve Wilkes. I think he's been a

543
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 2: downgrade from Demiko Ryans. They're not as good as in

544
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 2: the red zone. They're pass rush. They don't generate the

545
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 2: pass rush outside of Bosa. So I think what we're

546
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 2: looking at is and I think you hit on something.

547
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: There's two whammys that work in Kansas City's favorite Mahomes

548
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: screws with everybody's head. You tend to call a more

549
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 2: aggressive game because of Mahomes. Nobody's calling wacky plays because

550
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 2: I brought purty, Maybe the opposite. Secondly, Kyle's lost games

551
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl he had won. Does Andy Reid

552
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: get into his head? Does it get into his head?

553
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: I asked Drew Brees that today. I said, you know,

554
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 2: you go to the Super Bowl. You didn't have this litany.

555
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 2: I mean, the Niners have been great for thirty years.

556
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 2: Mostly they haven't won since ninety four. This team has

557
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 2: been great for six years. Right, that shit gets tight,

558
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 2: right Like, I can say whatever you want. This is

559
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 2: going to be a loose Kansas City team with the

560
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: best head coach and DC duo in the league, playing

561
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 2: with confidence, an underdog. I think if it's close laid,

562
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 2: I think all the intangibles go to Kansas City.

563
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 4: I've got a cowherd take on this. Patrick Mahomes isn't

564
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 4: playing just to win this title. He's playing for legacy.

565
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 4: And Patrick Mahomes is such a gifted player. We're talking

566
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 4: about people who We're talking about a guy who is

567
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 4: at the top of his craft, potentially beyond Tom Brady

568
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 4: and the path he will beyond if he wins this game.

569
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 4: Is far beyond the accomplishments of just one season. And

570
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 4: I think he's a game wrecker, as we said, because

571
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 4: he can think beyond that and he will not shrink

572
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 4: in the moment. And I think to your point about Shanahan,

573
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 4: to your point about brock Party, and I don't think

574
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 4: this is necessarily specific to them, but in this case

575
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 4: it will be. Then Mahomes makes you do things you

576
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 4: wouldn't normally do. And if you've got the monkey on

577
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 4: your back because you haven't been able to close the

578
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 4: deal in the Super Bowl and you're going against Patrick Mahomes,

579
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 4: Let's remember Patrick Mahomes lost the Super Bowl against the

580
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 4: Bucks because he had no healthy offensive pac lineman none.

581
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 4: Like all of these things, you get clarity looking back

582
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 4: in history. So I do think that the context of

583
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,239
Speaker 4: Mahomes playing for legacy and being driven enough to know

584
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 4: that's what he's playing for beyond this season, I think

585
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 4: that's an X factor.

586
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 2: So one of the I don't do a ton of props,

587
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 2: but brought Purty over under two hundred and forty seven

588
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 2: passing yards. So Brandon Ayuk is sensational, But you're talking

589
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 2: about Sneed's an elite corner that when he guards you.

590
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 2: The quarterback has sixty five passer rating in a fifty

591
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 2: two percent completion rate. You can put sneed McDuffie's also excellent.

592
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 2: So I don't think they'll beat the Chiefs over the top.

593
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 2: They could dink and dunk, but I'm Kyle Shanahan. There's

594
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:43,479
Speaker 2: a fairly obvious way to map this came out. I

595
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: want to see mahomes as little as possible, a lot

596
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 2: of debo, a lot of Christian McCaffrey and deebo in

597
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 2: some running sets, which we know we can do, but

598
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: it felt like he did more of that pre content

599
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: pre contract than both. I don't have the data to

600
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: support that. But the way to win this game for

601
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 2: them is I'm not putting it on brock pretty shoulders

602
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 2: and we're not going to get cheap yards over the top.

603
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: This is a debo Christian McCaffrey game. Secondly, is that

604
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 2: San Francisco and I can't figure it out because nobody's

605
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 2: tied to their play sheet, and more than Kyle Shanahan,

606
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 2: they've not been a great first quarter team in the playoffs.

607
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: Green Bay out played him, to Troy out played him.

608
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 2: So it's like you're not gonna get major yards early.

609
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: They're gonna be fairly cautious, I would think with Brock

610
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: pretty early in the Super Bowl right like, they're not

611
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: going explosion plays. You're not gonna get cheap crap over

612
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,959
Speaker 2: the top because the Chiefs pass rush is excellent and

613
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 2: their corners are, in my opinion, the best young corners

614
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 2: in the game. I'm actually surprised to forty seven's a

615
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: lot of yards when you have Christian McCaffrey. That's all

616
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs defense. Baltimore was reluctant to run. They

617
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: could have. You know, Gus Edwards first run was fifteen yards,

618
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: his second carry was in the second half. They could

619
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: have run, So that number to me, he seems high.

620
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 4: Well, look, Colin, I had Gus Edwards over forty and

621
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 4: a half rushing yards, and when he ran for fifteen

622
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 4: yards on that first play, I'm like, I'm golden, Like

623
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 4: I'm watching in the action app and I see like

624
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 4: his percentage chance of covering that was like eighty percent,

625
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 4: and then it was seventy, and then it was sixty,

626
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 4: and then it was fifty, and all of a sudden,

627
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 4: he ran one more time the entire game, and that

628
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 4: by the way, is indicative of how coaches and players

629
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 4: change their game plan and change their style when you're

630
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 4: playing Patrick Mahomes, I think the Niners. I'm not trying

631
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 4: to avoid your question. I don't have a strong opinion

632
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 4: on Perdy. I would probably lean to the under. I

633
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 4: think it's lined about right. I don't see a huge

634
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 4: edge in Brock Purdy in his passing yardage. I think

635
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 4: I do see Deebo Samuel over his receiving yardage as

636
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 4: a bonus because I think he's going to line up

637
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 4: in the slot. And I think that's a little bit

638
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 4: of an advantage because you're not having to go against

639
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 4: really good corners against the Chiefs, and you're going against

640
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 4: smaller linebackers, and so if they are going to find

641
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 4: some success, that could be where it is. And I

642
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 4: also agree with you. Look, if the Niners are winning

643
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 4: this game, they're doing it on the ground, thrashing a

644
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 4: mediocre Chiefs run defense. I won't say terrible Chiefs run defense,

645
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 4: it's mediocre. It's a mediocre defense. So I think the

646
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 4: advantage here is to run McCaffrey and run Deebo Samuel.

647
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 4: Do what I say you're betting over the McCaffrey yardage.

648
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 4: I don't think so, because I do think that the

649
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 4: Chiefs know they'd almost rather put the ball in brock

650
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 4: Perty's hands than let McCaffrey beat him because he is

651
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 4: so talented. So those are a couple of tricky props

652
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 4: I think to bet. I will tell you one bet

653
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 4: that I love that I think is underpriced right now.

654
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 4: Christian McCaffrey. First rush over three and a half yards

655
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 4: happens sixty to sixty five percent at the time, and

656
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 4: then the circumstances, and then the percentage increases with circumstances

657
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 4: like we are looking at this week with the defense

658
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 4: that isn't quite as good as what the Niners were

659
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 4: always facing. So if you're looking for sort of a

660
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 4: sneaky fun prop, that'll be over quickly. They're right away

661
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 4: if you're going to win that one. But that's one

662
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 4: that I like.

663
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm going to defend the Chiefs run

664
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: defense a little, not overwhelmingly, but you don't play catch

665
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 2: up with the Chiefs like you used to, so people

666
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 2: simply run more against Kansas City. In previous years, the

667
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 2: Chiefs defense was viewed who they don't allow many rushing

668
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:42,720
Speaker 2: yards because you're always trailing. This Chief team has been trailing,

669
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 2: so people aren't getting into shootouts. And when you don't

670
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 2: get into shootouts with Mahomes, you find comfort in running

671
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 2: and eating the clock because Mahomes is in your head.

672
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 2: So people are much more willing to run against Kansas City.

673
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 2: I don't think their run defense is bad. They're two

674
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 2: athletics get linebacker. For it to be bad, they really

675
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 2: have good, twitchy linebackers. Yeah, but this defense has the

676
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: best corners, an excellent pass rush, so people attack the

677
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 2: run game more. And I think, again, I don't think

678
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: it's a great run defense. It's not Baltimore, but I

679
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 2: think it's a little over discussed how poor it is

680
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 2: based on if you knew you didn't have to get

681
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: into a shootout with Mahomes, you'd want to run the

682
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,720
Speaker 2: damn clock, so we'd get two less possessions. So people

683
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 2: go into a week and say we're going to commit

684
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 2: to the run. Well, if you commit to the run,

685
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,439
Speaker 2: you run the ball more and you run the ball

686
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: with more success. So I think people have gone into

687
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 2: games with Kansas City thinking, hey, we got to be

688
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,240
Speaker 2: good situationally in the red zone because when we get chances.

689
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: We got to score touchdown not field goals. That was forever,

690
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 2: that's been the mantra with Kansas City. You got to

691
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 2: get touchdowns, not field goals. Teams go for it and

692
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: fourth down you don't really have to with this team.

693
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 2: I ring the ball. So I think the defense for

694
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 2: Kansas City is excellent against the pass. I think it's

695
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 2: okay again, that's the run.

696
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 4: Good enough, good right, And I think that to bring

697
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 4: a full circle, that plays into why we like the

698
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 4: under and the game script that we're expecting is going

699
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 4: to be that both teams play some kind of ball

700
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 4: control offense, which is really what they've been doing all year. Right.

701
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 4: These have not been explosive from a from a Niners perspective,

702
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 4: not I mean a Chiefs perspective, not an explosive offense.

703
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 4: And the Niners, while they can be explosive, are more

704
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 4: than likely recognizing that their ability to win this game

705
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 4: is going to be dependent on their ability to run

706
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:40,280
Speaker 4: the ball. So as long as they can be committed

707
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 4: to that, I like our chances on the under. Do

708
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 4: I think either do? I think either side is a lock?

709
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 4: Not really. I will say one thing you want to

710
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 4: consider when teams win the Super Bowl, they tend to

711
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 4: win by a field goal or more so, if you

712
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 4: really like the Chiefs. Fun alternative bet to make Chiefs

713
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 4: minus two and a half at plus one thirty one

714
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 4: thirty five because you're getting better odds. And if you

715
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 4: think it's going to be a close game and the

716
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 4: Chiefs are going to win, might will take the Chiefs

717
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 4: at minus two and a half, which is the limit

718
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,439
Speaker 4: of where you want to be. I'm sort of taking

719
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,240
Speaker 4: an outline here and getting a little bit of extra juice.

720
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:26,720
Speaker 2: Chad Milman, been great. My three teamer is Chiefs plus

721
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 2: two under and Brock under two hundred and forty seven

722
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 2: passing yards. Give me a three teamer very quickly.

723
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 4: I will take Chiefs plus two, I will take the under,

724
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 4: and I will take Deebo Samuel over fifty eight and

725
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 4: a half receiving yards.

726
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 2: I think you're right on that. You know, the air

727
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 2: thing with him, bubble screens, he gets cheap yards, he

728
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 2: gets those, he turns four into nine like three times

729
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 2: a game. You get a lot of cheap stuff.

730
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 4: With Trent Williams out in front of him, best lineman

731
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 4: in football.

732
00:38:56,000 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 2: Come on, Chad Milman. CCO Action Network, Good Talk, anybody

733
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 2: the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed

734
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 2: the podcast, take a moment rate and review